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Interesting hybrid low set to drench Spain's Canary Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on February 01, 2010

An interesting 1002 mb low pressure system with some characteristics of a tropical storm has developed off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Canary Islands. An ASCAT pass from last night revealed top winds of 40 mph near the center, so the low is probably near tropical storm strength. This low is moving east-northeast towards the Canaries, and will likely bring sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph, gusting to 50 mph, to the islands tonight. The storm formed over the weekend from an isolated cold-cored low that was wandering over the Atlantic, and phase space analyses from Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend. A respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has built near the storm's center, characteristic of a tropical storm. The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year. Wind shear is marginal for tropical storm formation, about 20 knots. The comma-shaped structure of the storm's spiral bands is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone, and it is pretty unlikely that NHC will view this hybrid storm as being sufficiently tropical to warrant naming it a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. The low is headed towards colder waters of 20°C that lie near the Canary Islands, and the system should become less tropical today.


Figure 1. Hybrid 1002 mb low approaches the Canary Islands, in this visible METEOSAT image from 7am EST 2/1/10.

You can use our wundermap for the Canary Islands to watch the storm roll through the islands. There are two web cams to watch (currently showing thick clouds) that might be interesting. EUMETSAT satellite images loops will also be interesting.

Next post
My next post will be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Punxsutawney Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the info. Have a nice day!
interesting development.. thanks for the post!
Thanks, Doc.

From previous:

Quoting Seastep:
Hope it works out for them.


"led by the world's largest number of hydroelectric generators."

Too bad they are going to pay for that in lost wetlands, ecosystems, and coastal erosion. Every dam on a river removes sediment that would have been naturally deposited in a coastal river delta. (For example, Louisiana's wetland problem is partly due to dams on tributaries of the Mississippi. Old man river is carrying about half of the sediment load down here that it used to.)

I guess we should call that athropogenic wetland sediment depletion...AWSD ?
Thanks Dr. M; this adds more "mystique" to what 2010 may bring this year in terms of surprises. On an FSU note, I attended the NWS WeatherFest at their Tallahassee/Florida State office on Saturday with the kids. Don't know if any Wunderbloggers were there, and small crowds, but the Staff over there is very nice, the lectures were interesting, and, they were willing to answer any and all questions. I finally figured out how to properly read the radar return signals/color codes from the Doppler Radar data with their help.
Quoting atmoaggie:
From previous:



"led by the world's largest number of hydroelectric generators."

Too bad they are going to pay for that in lost wetlands, ecosystems, and coastal erosion. Every dam on a river removes sediment that would have been naturally deposited in a coastal river delta. (For example, Louisiana's wetland problem is partly due to dams on tributaries of the Mississippi. Old man river is carrying about half of the sediment load down here that it used to.)

I guess we should call that athropogenic wetland sediment depletion...AWSD ?


That would be accurate...LOL
...Florida State University revealed that the low developed a partial warm core over the weekend.

Warm core, even partial, in Jan.? Ohhh boy. Will be interesting following this.
Hydroelectric power's dirty secret revealed
Contrary to popular belief, hydroelectric power can seriously damage the climate. Proposed changes to the way countries' climate budgets are calculated aim to take greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs into account, but some experts worry that they will not go far enough.

The green image of hydro power as a benign alternative to fossil fuels is false, says Éric Duchemin, a consultant for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "Everyone thinks hydro is very clean, but this is not the case," he says.

Hydroelectric dams produce significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, and in some cases produce more of these greenhouse gases than power plants running on fossil fuels. Carbon emissions vary from dam to dam, says Philip Fearnside from Brazil's National Institute for Research in the Amazon in Manaus. "But we do know that there are enough emissions to worry about."

In a study to be published in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Fearnside estimates that in 1990 the greenhouse effect of emissions from the Curuá-Una dam in Pará, Brazil, was more than three-and-a-half times what would have been produced by generating the same amount of electricity from oil.

This is because large amounts of carbon tied up in trees and other plants are released when the reservoir is initially flooded and the plants rot. Then after this first pulse of decay, plant matter settling on the reservoir's bottom decomposes without oxygen, resulting in a build-up of dissolved methane. This is released into the atmosphere when water passes through the dam's turbines.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7046
Wow, this is certainly interesting. I hope it in now way reflects the type of hurricane season we will have in the Atlantic this year.
Great looking graphic Atmo. What the heck is it???

3. atmoaggie 10:10 AM EST on February 01, 2010
Here in dry Cape Coral I am thrilled to see what looks to be an extended rainy spell for us! But I can't help wondering if my poor new landscape, brutally tested by winter already, is going to get tested again in February - or if we will wind up being blasted this summer. I know that hurricane seasons as quiet as '09 are exceptionally rare.
Checking in from rainy Delray Beach, Fl here (south palm beach county).. Been generally steady rain here all morning, a little heavier farther south..good relaxing day to sit around, be lazy, and lose some money playing poker lol
Awesome blog, Doc! Puts me in a chasing mood! :)
The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year.

I think that this is the most interesting part of the entry; the SSTs are warmer than usual...
Quoting Floodman:
The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year.

I think that this is the most interesting part of the entry; the SSTs are warmer than usual...


The fuel is still there waiting for summer to arrive.
Quoting Floodman:
The low is over cool 21 - 22°C water, far colder than the typical 26°C needed for a tropical storm to form. These SSTs are about 1 - 2°C warmer than usual for this time of year.

I think that this is the most interesting part of the entry; the SSTs are warmer than usual...


2 degrees is quite a lot.
Another interesting development is Tropical Cyclone Oli in the central South Pacific. This is an unusual area for tropical storms except during a strong El Nino, such as has developed over the past few weeks.
I have a bad feeling about the 2010 Hurricane season. Which I am very sorry to say.

Floodman, I will WUmail you.

Everyone else, Stay safe, Stay warm.
Goodnight
Global SSTs

A warmer start means less energy required to get into the "red zone"...2010 may be a '04-'05 hybrid, as has been noted by a few...
El Nino Cranking + February 2010 = Another Inactive Hurricane Season?

Let's extrapolate this:

X/(p1-p0)*SQroot 3293094839202 (number of square miles of Atlantic Ocean & Gulf) - UT0700*(120 days)all over 3846 (money in hurricane fund)/ 21 (number of vacation days available) = 2 (major hurricanes - 1 affecting US coast)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


2 degrees is quite a lot.

especially for that part of the NE ATL.
what no gw lol

thanks for update doc


Quoting AussieStorm:
I have a bad feeling about the 2010 Hurricane season.

Floodman, I will WUmail you.

Everyone else, Stay safe, Stay warm.
Goodnight


Years following an El Nino, assuming the current one dissipates by summer, are usually pretty active.
Quoting CycloneOz:
El Nino Cranking February 2010 = Another Inactive Hurricane Season?

Let's extrapolate this:

X/(p1-p0)*SQroot 3293094839202 (number of square miles of Atlantic Ocean & Gulf) - UT0700*(120 days)all over 3846 (money in hurricane fund)/ 21 (number of vacation days available) = 2 (major hurricanes - 1 affecting US coast)


I don't see that El Nino is cranking; if it is, it's a damned perculiar event; the SSTs off Chile are in the mid 70s...correct me if I'm wrong but a strong El Nino has SSTs off the Chilean coast in the mid 80s this time of year. If you look at the SST map I posted there is a pool of much warmer water but it's 1800 miles off the coast, further than it has been until recently...looks like the El Nino is weakening, not strengthening
Quoting Floodman:


I don't see that El Nino is cranking; if it is, it's a damned perculiar event; the SSTs off Chile are in the mid 70s...correct me if I'm wrong but a strong El Nino has SSTs off the Chilean coast in the mid 80s this time of year. If you look at the SST map I posted there is a pool of much warmer water but it's 1800 miles off the coast, further than it has been until recently...looks like the El Nino is weakening, not strengthening
This is an Unusual El-Nino- When you compare data from past Nino,s to this one. How are you Flood?
El Nino is getting weaker

Last week:4(1.4) 3.4(1.4) 3(0.8) 1+2(0.1)
Today:4(1.3) 3.4(1.2) 3(0.7) 1+2(0.4)
Quoting hydrus:
This is an Unusual El-Nino- When you compare data from past Nino,s to this one. How are you Flood?


I'm good hydrus...getting over my bout with the abazooti...LOLand you? How are things over your way?
Way too early to know where the ENSO cycle will end up come the Summer, but, assuming the current weak cycle continues and, transitions down as we get towards Summer, my best guess for the 2010 H-Season, right now, would be an ENSO neutral season.........Time will tell.

Summary: Pacific Ocean slowly releasing heat
Central Pacific Ocean temperatures, while remaining well above El Nio thresholds, have eased slightly over the past fortnight. This corresponds to the Trade wind strength returning to near normal along much of the equator. However, significant areas east of the dateline continue to exceed their average sea surface temperature by more than 2 C, and generally remain above values observed at the peak of the 2006 El Nio event.

Climate models suggest that tropical Pacific temperatures may gradually ease towards more average conditions over the coming months, though are likely to remain above El Nio thresholds until the southern autumn.

In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index has increased over the past fortnight to more neutral levels. In some contrast, cloudiness and rainfall near the equator have remained enhanced. The influence of El Nio events on Australian rainfall typically declines by mid to late summer.
If you guys were not aware of it, TornadoDude is running a Superbowl pool for the benefit of Portlight. All proceeds go to Portlight. It's very simple: you go in and tell him who you think will win and if you loose, you donate $10 to Portlight. Raysfan has issued a challenge to every one: she will make it an even $20.

Again, no money is to go anywhere but Portlight so visit TornadoDude's blog and get in on the action!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Way too early to know where the ENSO cycle will end up come the Summer, but, assuming the current weak cycle continues and, transitions down as we get towards Summer, my best guess for the 2010 H-Season, right now, would be an ENSO neutral season.........Time will tell.

Summary: Pacific Ocean slowly releasing heat
Central Pacific Ocean temperatures, while remaining well above El Ni�o thresholds, have eased slightly over the past fortnight. This corresponds to the Trade wind strength returning to near normal along much of the equator. However, significant areas east of the dateline continue to exceed their average sea surface temperature by more than 2 �C, and generally remain above values observed at the peak of the 2006 El Ni�o event.

Climate models suggest that tropical Pacific temperatures may gradually ease towards more average conditions over the coming months, though are likely to remain above El Ni�o thresholds until the southern autumn.

In the atmosphere, the Southern Oscillation Index has increased over the past fortnight to more neutral levels. In some contrast, cloudiness and rainfall near the equator have remained enhanced. The influence of El Ni�o events on Australian rainfall typically declines by mid to late summer.


A general indication of weakening, though I do agree that it's a little early to make a neutral prediction...another month or so will tell the tale, maybe sooner...
I hate it when I break the blog
Nah, Flood.. it just got bumped... :-)
Quoting Floodman:


I'm good hydrus...getting over my bout with the abazooti...LOLand you? How are things over your way?
Cold and icy. We had winter storm move through and made a pretty big mess up here on the plateau. Please explain what (abazooti) means.
LOL
Abazooti=creeping crud=the unidentified sort general illness you pick up this time of year...it's not the flu, or a cold really, but gives you the ssame sort of overall "pounded poop" sort of feeling
Quoting TampaTom:
Nah, Flood.. it just got bumped... :-)


I may have scared folks when I posted a reasonably intelligent comment that didn't contain a joke...LOL
Quoting Floodman:
Abazooti=creeping crud=the unidentified sort general illness you pick up this time of year...it's not the flu, or a cold really, but gives you the ssame sort of overall "pounded poop" sort of feeling
I am glad I asked, I have had some symptoms like Cough and slight aching past few days and had no idea what it is. It Is the dreaded.......Abazooti!
Quoting Floodman:
Abazooti=creeping crud=the unidentified sort general illness you pick up this time of year...it's not the flu, or a cold really, but gives you the ssame sort of overall "pounded poop" sort of feeling

can that be acquired from a few (too many) beers?
i think i'm still dealing with that myself as of saturday night..
Quoting hydrus:
I am glad I asked, I have had some symptoms like Cough and slight aching past few days and had no idea what it is. It Is the dreaded.......Abazooti!


Add to your symptoms a slight fever and an over-all mallaise and you got it!
Quoting Floodman:


I may have scared folks when I posted a reasonably intelligent comment that didn't contain a joke...LOL


Uhhhh... possibly! :-)
Typically it's worse than a hangover, MM; it also lasts about 5 days...if you have a hangover that lasts 5 days, you should really reconsider your drinking habits...LOL
Thanks Doc!

So, last night Geoff and I came up with an idea. Go to my blog and post who you think will win the Super Bowl, if they lose, then you pledge $10 to Portlight (or more!!)

Check it out! my blog
Quoting Floodman:


Add to your symptoms a slight fever and an over-all mallaise and you got it!
It does make sense. It has been cold, damp and cloudy for a while here. The Sun is out today and the ice and snow is reflecting this brilliant white light all over the place. It is Cool.:)
Dr. Masters: fascinating bit of weather - good for taking our minds off the winter doldrums....thanks for pointing it out : )


of course it's too early to say, will it croak?

what's the history - any other storms like this before?
abazooti - terrific! vocab word for the day : )

In a sentence:
I need some Hot Summer Sun to banish the Abazooti from my bones.

Winter is a time when Abazooti symptoms flourish.

Cold Water is going to be a factor real soon. It's heading for cooler water.

This article exemplifies the best of this blog by Dr. Master's. I wish he'd concentrate on stuff like this more instead of continually wading into the global warming hoax.
Quoting 2010hurricane:
El Nino is getting weaker

Last week:4(1.4) 3.4(1.4) 3(0.8) 1 2(0.1)
Today:4(1.3) 3.4(1.2) 3(0.7) 1 2(0.4)

i noticed that too looking at Tampa Spin's weather page
Quoting bjrabbit:
This article exemplifies the best of this blog by Dr. Master's. I wish he'd concentrate on stuff like this more instead of continually wading into the global warming hoax.


So, you have evidence this is a hoax, or just a "gut" feeling?
So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog
Quoting Floodman:


So, you have evidence this is a hoax, or just a "gut" feeling?


my gut feeling tells me it's lunch time!
Rep. Steve Israel, co-chairman of the House’s Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition (SEEC), tweeted on Sunday:

China now leads world in clean tech. Time for a Sputnik program to reclaim leadership.

Israel’s line about Sputnik refers to the space race between the United States and the Soviet Union, beginning in the late 1950s.
http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/78927-rep-israel-pines-for-space-race-enthusiasm-i n-clean-energy-debate
Quoting Floodman:


So, you have evidence this is a hoax, or just a "gut" feeling?


U.N.'s Global Warming Report Under Fresh Attack for Rainforest Claims

Link
Hmmm...no response? Figures...
Hey, TDude! Wazzup?
Quoting Floodman:
Hmmm...no response? Figures...


UN climate change panel based claims on student dissertation and magazine article

Link
Osama bin Laden Joins Ranks of Global Warming Alarmists

Link
Quoting Floodman:
Hey, TDude! Wazzup?


Hey Flood, just got lunch, you?
Quoting Floodman:


So, you have evidence this is a hoax, or just a "gut" feeling?

see alt. def. Abazooti
;)
Quoting Floodman:


So, you have evidence this is a hoax, or just a "gut" feeling?


When I get a 'gut' feeling, I reach for Pepto...
Good afternoon,all,gut feelings,are something I reserve for the casinos.
So Pat, you gonna put the Saints as your team on my page? :P


**POOF!**
Quoting Patrap:
MODIS Near-Real-Time Level-2 Browse

awesome link, thanks!! i check out the MODIS image of the day, but didn't know about that feature..
Heavy rain in Miami Today..

Current forecast
Issued by the National Weather Service at 2:31 PM EST on February 1, 2010
An area of moderate to heavy showers...extending from the over the Atlantic waters and East Coast into central Miami Dade County...will move northeast at 10 mph. Locally heavy rain...up to an inch an hour...will affect most communties along the coast and into northern and central Miami Dade County. Local flooding of low lying and flood prone areas will occur with some possible Road closures. In the Gulf and Atlantic waters,,,mariners can expect higher winds and seas in the areas of precipitation. Motorists are urged to exercise caution while driving.
Quoting tornadodude:
So Pat, you gonna put the Saints as your team on my page? :P


the point spread is 5 for the saints i believe. are you honoring that?
Quoting WaterWitch11:


the point spread is 5 for the saints i believe. are you honoring that?


It isnt betting, you just put down who you want to win, and if they lose then you donate $10 to Portlight

But yeah, the Saints are currently 5.5 point underdogs
Quoting tornadodude:
So Pat, you gonna put the Saints as your team on my page? :P


Saints been my team since 67,,when I was was 7,43 years ago.

My blog entry is clearly Biased.

I dont quantify my commitment to portlight with any dollar amount...nor can I wager,due to that commitment.


Who Dat Nation is descending on Miami as we blog.







Quoting tornadodude:


It isnt betting, you just put down who you want to win, and if they lose then you donate $10 to Portlight

But yeah, the Saints are currently 5.5 point underdogs


just trying to make it light hearted, guess i missed!
Quoting Patrap:


Saints been my team since 67,,when I was was 7,43 years ago.

My blog entry is clearly Biased.

I dont quantify my commitment to portlight with any dollar amount...nor can I wager,due to that commitment.


Who Dat Nation is descending on Miami as we blog.









oh alright, drgodowncountry even is rooting for the Saints!
Quoting WaterWitch11:


just trying to make it light hearted, guess i missed!


oops lol my bad :P

how ya doing?
Speaking of betting...

I just signed up for the WSOP (via mail / cashier's check) for the June 12th tournament.

So, how good am I at poker. Good enough to finally go to the WSOP! :)

June 12 - 15 NO HURRICANES! GO EL NINO!! GO!
...for the Pressman...

10% of my winnings after subtracting my buy-in and expenses will go to Portlight.org

So...I hope I cash!
Quoting CycloneOz:
Speaking of betting...

I just signed up for the WSOP (via mail / cashier's check) for the June 12th tournament.

So, how good am I at poker. Good enough to finally go to the WSOP! :)

June 12 - 15 NO HURRICANES! GO EL NINO!! GO!


Your new Name is Mr. Baller.

Dam man I wish I could through down that much with a liitle chance in return.

No hidden Ace's n your sleeves, you might find the back door.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Speaking of betting...

I just signed up for the WSOP (via mail / cashier's check) for the June 12th tournament.

So, how good am I at poker. Good enough to finally go to the WSOP! :)

June 12 - 15 NO HURRICANES! GO EL NINO!! GO!


How much was the entry fee?
Quoting iluvjess:


How much was the entry fee?


Usually $10,000.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Usually $10,000.


whoa
Quoting iluvjess:


How much was the entry fee?


$1,000 No-Limit Hold'em

Will be staying with my wife on the strip.
84. MTWX
afternoon all.. 49 and sunny here in NE Miss.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Usually $10,000.


$10,000 No-Limit Hold'em Main Event - July 5th
Quoting StormChaser81:


Usually $10,000.


Unless you play tons of free games and win a spot. But he said he got a cashier check, SO that means $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$4$$$$$
Quoting StormChaser81:


Your new Name is Mr. Baller.

Dam man I wish I could through down that much with a liitle chance in return.

No hidden Ace's n your sleeves, you might find the back door.


Actually, not really "such a little chance."

I like my odds.

I've been playing for many years and have won many "local" tournaments here in New Mexico.

What got it all started was over the Christmas break. My wife watched me play and win a big tournament.

She told me that it was time for me to "go-live" at the WSOP instead of watching it on ESPN.

I agreed.

Elvis will remarry us :)
If you want to know some more zbout this low, in Cazatormentas.Net we have been following it progresses since two days ago. If you wish, you can take a look :)

thanks a lot !
I AM NOT ENTERED IN THE MAIN EVENT on JULY 5TH!

I'm in Tournament #24. June 12th - 15th.
wow; last time the blog was this slow, and off topic, i made some off remark about lacking entertainment... unfortunately that was 2hrs before Haiti got pummeled.
i shall be content today, though i wouldn't mind some more weather posts :D
Quoting StormChaser81:


Your new Name is Mr. Baller.


I like it.

What does it mean?
Quoting CycloneOz:


Actually, not really "such a little chance."

I like my odds.

I've been playing for many years and have won many "local" tournaments here in New Mexico.

What got it all started was over the Christmas break. My wife watched me play and win a big tournament.

She told me that it was time for me to "go-live" at the WSOP instead of watching it on ESPN.

I agreed.

Elvis will remarry us :)


No offense but you know the odds and you havnt played with the big boys yet. Im sure your good but your stepping into a serious place were million are born everyday. GOOD LUCK MAN. I'll stick with $60 buy in's.
93. MTWX
Quoting Minnemike:
wow; last time the blog was this slow, and off topic, i made some off remark about lacking entertainment... unfortunately that was 2hrs before Haiti got pummeled.
i shall be content today, though i wouldn't mind some more weather posts :D


been a very slow spotter season here in MS. almost no severe weather to talk about.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I like it.

What does it mean?


It means you have money to spend on things that most cannot afford.
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!
Insane winter weather continues. A hybrid L off Spain, after Madrid and Barcelona had snow earlier this winter. Climate variability is amazing, not trying to provoke a heated discussion, I promise.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


Srry for your loss.
From Urban Dictionary:

Baller-

A thug that has "made it" to the big time. Originally referred ball players that made it out of the streets to make millions as a pro ball player, but now is used to describe any thug that is living large.
Quoting StormChaser81:


No offense but you know the odds and you havnt played with the big boys yet.


I actually played with the "big boys" back on April 6, 1987 at Caesar's Palace. I won $6,500 that night playing 7-card stud.

And yes, luck is involved, so I'll quit posting about it. I don't want to jinx it all up.

2008 WSOP Main Event - Table #???

One guy had 4 aces
The other guy had a Royal Flush

Need I say more?

100. MTWX
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!

Sorry to here that. My condolences...
Quoting StormChaser81:


It means you have money to spend on things that most cannot afford.


Oh, well then...I better get ta spendin' before Obama decides to redistribute it, huh?
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


I'm sorry, TS...condolences
Quoting CycloneOz:


Oh, well then...I better get ta spendin' before Obama decides to redistribute it, huh?


I would start now: QVC
My thoughts and prayers go out to you and your family TampaSpin
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


That's terrible news...very sad. If there was no underlying condition it exacerbated to cause such a sudden loss, then it's alarming, too.
106. MTWX
Flood.. Hows that back treating ya??
Quoting tornadodude:
From Urban Dictionary:

Baller-

A thug that has "made it" to the big time. Originally referred ball players that made it out of the streets to make millions as a pro ball player, but now is used to describe any thug that is living large.


Mr. Baller it is then! Glad my Italian heritage and culture are not going to waste.

Look at me now, PaPa! :)
Quoting CycloneOz:


I actually played with the "big boys" back on April 6, 1987 at Caesar's Palace. I won $6,500 that night playing 7-card stud.

And yes, luck is involved, so I'll quit posting about it. I don't want to jinx it all up.

2008 WSOP Main Event - Table #???

One guy had 4 aces
The other guy had a Royal Flush

Need I say more?

\

hey I'm up $120 online today.. not a bad days off lol
Quoting MTWX:
Flood.. Hows that back treating ya??


Good; I walk 3-4 miles a day (not so much in the last 4 or so...sick) and I feel about 95%; I still have little pain, but nothing mind numbing...my surgeon was outstanding and he says the patient was too
So sorry to hear of your loss Tampa Spin
sorry about your loss. god bless you and your family
114. MTWX
Quoting Floodman:


Good; I walk 3-4 miles a day (not so much in the last 4 or so...sick) and I feel about 95%; I still have little pain, but nothing mind numbing...my surgeon was outstanding and he says the patient was too


Glad to hear it is doing good... I'm trying to get over a cold myself. This weird weather we've been having has been giving my back some aches the last couple of weeks.
He just thought he had the common flu and was being very stubbrun about going to seek a Dr. When his mother and wife finally convinced him , it was too late for medication to kick in as he had double lung problems. I 9 hours in the hospital he was gone. Don't take any flu like symptoms longer than 48 hours of no improvement litely. Just my advice after this.
Quoting TampaSpin:
He just thought he had the common flu and was being very stubbrun about going to seek a Dr. When his mother and wife finally convinced him , it was too late for medication to kick in as he had double lung problems. I 9 hours in the hospital he was gone. Don't take any flu like symptoms longer than 48 hours of no improvement litely. Just my advice after this.
i am very sorry to hear about the loss. thank you for the information and the word of caution, it could save a life!
April 6th, 1987 - Caesar's Palace?

Old-timers may remember that "event."
Quoting MTWX:


Glad to hear it is doing good... I'm trying to get over a cold myself. This weird weather we've been having has been giving my back some aches the last couple of weeks.


My weather driven issues are considerably more pronounced post surgery; I feel your pain!
It's a little late with this notice, but if you are a fan of the Alan Parsons Project, Eric Woolfson (singer / songwriter) died back on December 9, 2009. He was 64 years old.

If I could see the sky above
And the mind could be set free
As wild white horses reached the shore
I'd stand alone and oversee

And if the bush before me burns
should I turn my eyes away
And still the voices I can hear
As clear to me as light of day

I believed in my dreams
Nothing could change my mind
Now I know what they mean
How could I've been so blind

Cold sands of time
(Winds that blow as cold as ice, sounds that come in the night)
Shall hide what is left of me
(Come from Paradise)

I've been through times when no one cared
I've seen clouds in empty skies
When one kind word meant more to me
Than all the love in Paradise

I believed in my dreams
Nothing could change my mind
Till I found what they mean
Nothing can save me now

RIP Eric. You were awesome and your talent will be missed but never forgotten!
Looks like below normal Temperatures for the Eastern Half of the ConUs hangs on for the most part for the next 10 days......

Tampa,sorry to hear about your cousin,my condolences.Wish people would take this flu more seriously.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-20092010
22:00 PM Réunion February 1 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11R (1001 hPa) located at 19.3S 42.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving northeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 43.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.4S 46.2E - 25 knots (Depression Sur Terre)
48 HRS: 21.4S 52.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.6S 57.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================
Environmental conditions are favorable to intensification with a weakening vertical wind shear, as the minimum track over very favorable energetic potential. Feeding flows are mainly due to monsoon flow, but a southerly flow is expected to enter the south of the channel tomorrow.

The system is forecast to track globally eastward under the main steering influence of highs located north of the system.

The system may reach storm stage before its landfall on the Malagasy coast nearby Morondava a little before 02/1200z. It is forecasted to exit over seas over the Indian Ocean with favorable condition beyond 36 hr forecast
Quoting CycloneOz:


Look at me now, PaPa! :)


At least it ain't "PoPo".

(and..I prefer Pot Limit Omaha myself.)
Quoting CycloneOz:
It's a little late with this notice, but if you are a fan of the Alan Parsons Project, Eric Woolfson (singer / songwriter) died back on December 9, 2009. He was 64 years old.

The eye in the Sky was a good one too
For you Evening bloggers:

So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog
Quoting tornadodude:
For you Evening bloggers:

So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog


Not a bad idea...except I don't gamble. ;)
Quoting CycloneOz:


Not a bad idea...except I don't gamble. ;)


Lol right ;)
Quoting tornadodude:


Lol right ;)


Gimme the "sure thing" everytime! :D
Quoting CycloneOz:


Gimme the "sure thing" everytime! :D


well the sure thing is that either your team wins the Super Bowl, or you donate to an awesome cause! sounds like a safe bet to me (:
Quoting TampaSpin:
He just thought he had the common flu and was being very stubbrun about going to seek a Dr. When his mother and wife finally convinced him , it was too late for medication to kick in as he had double lung problems. I 9 hours in the hospital he was gone. Don't take any flu like symptoms longer than 48 hours of no improvement litely. Just my advice after this.


I am so sorry. I just lost my good friend to the flu this year (non-swine variety) and I miss her terribly. She left behind a young son and a husband. Such a shock.
Pentagon: “Climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked”

For the first time, the Pentagon’s primary planning document addresses the threat of global warming, noting that it will accelerate instability and conflict around the globe. Former Senators John Warner (R-VA) and Hillary Clinton (D-NY) added language requiring the department to consider the effects of climate change on its facilities, capabilities, and missions to the 2008 National Defense Authorization Act. The Department of Defense’s Quadrennial Defense Review, officially released today, discusses the department’s “strategic approach to climate and energy”:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/01/pentagon-climate-change-energy-security-and-economic-stabilit y-are-inextricably-linked/
(and..I prefer Pot Limit Omaha myself.)

que es "Pot Limit Omaha"?

Quoting NRAamy:
(and..I prefer Pot Limit Omaha myself.)

que es "Pot Limit Omaha"?



a variation of poker, I think
From an email:

The President’s FY2011 budget contains a major restructuring of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

See if I can share it successfully: http://www.mediafire.com/?ztelnndyuv1

More here, too: http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/major-shifts-flow-from-npoess-polar-satellite-program-crisis-01 557/

NPOESS details: http://www.ipo.noaa.gov/
Hi Matt...Good job today keeping the Super Bowl prediction contest going! And thank you to everyone who is participating. It's just something fun to do and it is for a very important and urgent cause. Any little bit helps. This is going to be a long-term endeavor. As I posted last night, I really have a fear for Haiti this Hurricane season. It would just be so devastating if they had to endure another catastrophe.
And now to the off-topic, however weather related, clip of the day:

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And now to the off-topic, however weather related, clip of the day:



wow LOL cant believe he did that
I think he was trying to talk about his height. You can see him earlier trying to fit into the frame. Now let's get our minds out of the gutter (:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think he was trying to talk about his height. You can see him earlier trying to fit into the frame. Now let's get our minds out of the gutter (:


haha yeah, I'd hope so :P
January was warmest on record for Seattle area
It wasn't sunbathing weather, but January was the warmest on record for the Seattle area, according to the National Weather Service.

The average temperature was 47 degrees, above the average of 45.8 degrees and the highest temperature since they began being recorded at the Seattle Federal Building in 1891. The normal average temperature for the month is 40.9 degrees.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010950668_webwarmjanuary01m.html

Hello, very rainy here.
Evening Grothar...Some areas down there received 8 inches of rain.
Hey Grothar, how ya been?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Evening Grothar...Some areas down there received 8 inches of rain.


Cooper City and Pembroke Pines got 8 inches. We only got about 4 inches. There was about two feet of standing water in some places out there. How does it look for tomorrow. We are still on a flood watch. (Ft. Lauderdale for anyone who doesn't know what we are talking about.) We can usually usually handle 5 or 6 inches, but anymore in a short time can be dangerous. Especially the interior sections which are low.
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey Grothar, how ya been?


Busy, TD. very busy. Sorry I haven't been on. Read up on the blog and very nice what you and GeoffWPB came up with. Glad to see your not just sitting back and drinking your Urge. How is the snow situation in Indiana?
Another front is going to come through tomorrow and sweep all the rain out.
Quoting Grothar:


Busy, TD. very busy. Sorry I haven't been on. Read up on the blog and very nice what you and GeoffWPB came up with. Glad to see your not just sitting back and drinking your Urge. How is the snow situation in Indiana?


Well I have about 2 inches of snow left on the ground, probably will melt tho over the next week. but there are chances of snow periodically :P
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I have about 2 inches of snow left on the ground, probably will melt tho over the next week. but there are chances of snow periodically :P


As I told you before I shall be in South Bend this month at Indiana University. Then I shall be staying with friends in Rolling Prairie. How is the weather supposed to be about the middle of the month?
Quoting Grothar:


As I told you before I shall be in South Bend this month at Indiana University. Then I shall be staying with friends in Rolling Prairie. How is the weather supposed to be about the middle of the month?


I imagine it will be decently cold, probably around 30. Indiana University in South Bend? IU is in Bloomington. Notre Dame is in South Bend
Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow, this is certainly interesting. I hope it in now way reflects the type of hurricane season we will have in the Atlantic this year.

remember 2009 started with an early depression and look how that turned out. But for every example there's always a counter example like 2008 hard to say
Quoting tornadodude:


I imagine it will be decently cold, probably around 30. Indiana University in South Bend? IU is in Bloomington. Notre Dame is in South Bend


Look it up TD! Your own state and you don't know about South Bend? LOL The Chancellor used to be with SUNY State University of NY before being named Chancellor at South Bend. TSK TSK.
Quoting Floodman:
Global SSTs

A warmer start means less energy required to get into the "red zone"...2010 may be a '04-'05 hybrid, as has been noted by a few...


From Post 20: This is the message I got when I followed that link ( Global SSTs )

Ooop! Forgot to add 'the message' -

This Connection is Untrusted











You have asked SeaMonkey to connect
securely to www.fnmoc.navy.mil, but we can't confirm that your connection is secure.



Normally, when you try to connect securely,
sites will present trusted identification to prove that you are
going to the right place. However, this site's identity can't be verified.







What Should I Do?





If you usually connect to
this site without problems, this error could mean that someone is
trying to impersonate the site, and you shouldn't continue.











Technical Details



www.fnmoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)

Quoting Grothar:


Look it up TD! Your own state and you don't know about South Bend? LOL The Chancellor used to be with SUNY State University of NY before being named Chancellor at South Bend. TSK TSK.


ok ok :P

there is a branch of IU at South Bend, but the main campus is in Bloomington
Quoting tornadodude:


ok ok :P

there is a branch of IU at South Bend, but the main campus is in Bloomington


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P
Quoting Grothar:


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P


Lol yeah I remember now. haha well I imagine it will be the same :p
Quoting Grothar:


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P


Grothar!!!!!
what a mess :p

Quoting Grothar:


Really, I didn't know that. ROFLVVH. If I had been going to Bloomington, I would have said Bloomington. I specifically mentioned South Bend so you wouldn't be confused. Where is Gracie when we need her. Think the weather will be the same there? :P


I give up -- what's the VV in ROFLVVH?

Grothar doesn't have lady parts.
Since the blog is quiet tonight, there is a question I have wanted to ask but I wanted to wait for the right time.

Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

Gee, I enjoy using that word anthropogenic. Since most people learned how to spell it, it is now one of the most commonly used words in the language and on this blog. I think it may replace cyclogenesis as the most overused word.
For you old-time wrestling fans out there...Jack Brisco passed away today. Use to watch him perform at WPB Auditorium back in the day.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I give up -- what's the VV in ROFLVVH?

Grothar doesn't have lady parts.


AWAKE!!! It means Rolling on the Floor Laughing VERY, VERY Hard.
Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

you really are a glutton for punishment, Groth....
Quoting NRAamy:
Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

you really are a glutton for punishment, Groth....


LOL!
I like yours best, Geoff --

The VV does look like a W!!
re what a mess: Have a look at rain totals across South Florida if you want to talk about a mess.
Quoting caneswatch:


Grothar!!!!!


CANES!!!!!!!!
Quoting Grothar:


CANES!!!!!!!!


Get on chat!!!!
Lol...the eyes are going fast! Replaced the comment with "rasslin" comment.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
re what a mess: Have a look at rain totals across South Florida if you want to talk about a mess.


I am here, all I have to do is look out my window. Big mess. Didn't really expect this much last night.
Quoting Grothar:


CANES!!!!!!!!


All right. Break it up, fellas, break it up :)
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
re what a mess: Have a look at rain totals across South Florida if you want to talk about a mess.


Yes, it IS a mess! When IS it ever supposed to be sunny and warm -- and DRY -- in Florida again? I want to visit a friend -- February is a good time to get out of Dodge, around here.
The role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming
There's been a number of queries regarding a new paper examining the role of stratospheric water vapor in global warming. The paper is Contributions of Stratospheric Water Vapor to Decadal Changes in the Rate of Global Warming (Solomon 2010). There are a few overly excited interpretations of the paper's results circulating around the blogosphere. This is presumably from readings of media clippings, not the actual paper. To accurately determine the significance of Solomon 2010, the best course is to see what the paper actually says.

The atmosphere is divided into several layers. The troposphere is the lowest part of the atmosphere. It contains most of the atmosphere's water vapor, predominantly supplied by evaporation from the ocean surface. Through the troposphere, temperature falls as altitude rises. The boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause. This is known as the "cold point", the coldest point in the lower atmosphere. In the stratosphere, temperature actually rises with altitude. It warms as you get higher - the opposite of the troposphere.

The various observations all found a significant drop in stratospheric water vapor around 2000. Most of the change in water vapor occurs in the lower stratosphere, just above the tropopause. The greatest changes also occur in the tropics and subtropics.
What effect would this have on climate? Figure 2 shows the change in radiative forcing imposed by changes in stratospheric water vapor. The dotted line is the radiative forcing without the effect of stratospheric water vapor changes. The grey shaded region shows the possible range of contribution from changing stratospheric water vapor. As it's a greenhouse gas, increasing water vapor has a warming effect. Consequently, the steady rise from 1980 to 2000 added some warming to the existing warming from greenhouse gases. The drop in water vapor after 2000 had a cooling effect.

What caused these changes? Water vapor in the stratosphere has two main sources. One is transport of water vapor from the troposphere which occurs mainly as air rises in the tropics. The other is the oxidation of methane which occurs mostly in the upper stratosphere. Most of the change in water vapor occurs in the lower stratosphere in the vicinity of regions affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This seems to point towards convection and internal variability driving the changes. A comparison between stratospheric water vapor and tropical sea surface temperatures show good correlation which corroborates a link with El Nino. However, the correlation breaks down in some periods suggesting other processes may also be important. Consequently, the authors are cautious in coming to a firm conclusion on the cause.

There seem to be two major misconceptions arising from this paper. The first is that this paper demonstrates that water vapor is the major driver of global temperatures. In fact, what this paper shows is the effect from stratospheric water vapor contributes a fraction of the temperature change imposed from man-made greenhouse gases. While the stratospheric water vapor is not insignificant, it's hardly the dominant driver of climate being portrayed by some blogs.

The other misinterpretation is that this paper proves negative feedback that cancels out global warming. As we've just seen, the magnitude of the effect is small compared to the overall global warming trend. The paper doesn't draw any conclusions regarding cause, stating that it's not clear whether the water vapor changes are caused by a climate feedback or decadal variability (eg - linked to El Nino Southern Oscillation). The radiative forcing changes (Figure 3 above) indicate that the overall effect from stratospheric water vapor is that of warming. The cooling period consists of a stepwise drop around 2000 followed by a resumption of the warming effect. This seems to speak against the possibility of a negative feedback.

Read Full Article
http://www.skepticalscience.com/role-of-stratospheric-water-vapor-in-global-warming.html
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just letting you all know the Swine Flu can kill yet. Just had my 45yr old cousin of 2 children just die on Saturday....Got sick a week ago!


Post 95. So sorry for your loss. Was this cousin a father? mother? of 2 children?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Yes, it IS a mess! When IS it ever supposed to be sunny and warm -- and DRY -- in Florida again? I want to visit a friend -- February is a good time to get out of Dodge, around here.


How many times do I gotta tell you guys? If you want 70 degree temps all winter long, move here to Michigan! :D
There you go, Grothar. Instigator.

I'm going to go order a pizza...with lots of veggies, so I can pretend it's health food.
Quoting NRAamy:
Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

you really are a glutton for punishment, Groth....


Yo, Amy! Long time, no talk. Thought you were banned forever. How have you been? Heard you had some nasty weather a while back. Have things calmed down by you?
My thoughts and prayers are with your family Tim.
Gro we went from a 70% chance of rain this morning in Broward County to a flash flood watch as we speak.
Quoting twistermania:


All right. Break it up, fellas, break it up :)


Hey, twister, glad to see you are back. Join us later. K
oh btw, Flood's bday is wednesday
Quoting twistermania:


How many times do I gotta tell you guys? If you want 70 degree temps all winter long, move here to Michigan! :D


GrtLksQuest, is twistermania a friend of yours?
Here's who the Greyhounds predict will win the Super Bowl:

Seeing The Effects Of Climate Change (PHOTOS)


The NSDIC reports that, "With few exceptions, glaciers around the world have retreated at unprecedented rates over the last century." Many scientists view this increased rate of melting as proof of global warming. These two photos were taken at Glacier Bay National Park, the top photo in August 1941, the bottom photo in August 2004. The second photo reveals the Muir Glacier has disappeared and Riggs Glacier has significantly retreated. Muir Glacier was more than 2,000 feet thick in 1941.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/15/seeing-the-effects-of-cli_n_423339.html
Yo, Amy! Long time, no talk. Thought you were banned forever.

nah...just busy doing other stuff...and trying to avoid the Main Blog so that I don't get banned forever.....

;)
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Gro we went from a 70% chance of rain this morning in Broward County to a flash flood watch as we speak.


What part of Broward are you in? I am in Coral Ridge.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
My thoughts and prayers are with your family Tim.


Me, also, Tim. I hope you got my WU note. Sorry if my silly posts seem ill-placed.

T-dude, thanks for reminder about Flood's birthday.

Off to order the pizza I go.
drg....did you get too close to a nuclear plant when you were a kid....or are you related to The Munsters....
Just saw TampaSpins blog. That is terrible news. Perhaps it will help someone else. My cousin in St. Petersburg didn't want to get the shot. He was in the hospital for two weeks with the swine flu. He made it. But Tim accept our condolences. That is truly tragic.
Quoting NRAamy:
drg....did you get too close to a nuclear plant when you were a kid....or are you related to The Munsters....

Yeah not the best photo, it does not hide my alien origin well ;)
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/2unvsdu.jpg[/IMG]
drg...I hear ya...it's not easy being green...or purple for that matter....
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Yeah not the best photo, it does not hide my alien origin well ;)


Andromedan, eh. Do you speak German?
Ow. That didn't take long.
Quoting NRAamy:
drg...I hear ya...it's not easy being green...or purple for that matter....


Don't tell my you watch Sesame Street. LOL
Gro, Coconut Creek. The flash flood watch is until 8pm for all of Broward county
Quoting Grothar:


Andromedan, eh. Do you speak German?
Sure ;) Was möchten Sie hören?
Groth...I had a dream last night...I saw Big Bird....he was sitting on a sidewalk asleep...have you ever seen how he snores?....welll, he was making that noise...when I woke up, I kid you not, my husband was making that exact noise....

freaky....

Ken Kaye South Florida Sun-Sentinel

3:05 p.m. EST, February 1, 2010

* EmailE-mail
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With almost 7 inches of rain falling in some areas, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood warning for southeast Broward County. The warning is effective through 3:15 p.m. but might be extended.

The rest of the region also has been blanketed under flood watches and advisories, as heavy rains have put roads and low-lying areas under water.

The bottom line: Be careful if you're driving around out there.

The weather service reported 6.5 inches of rain fell Cooper City, 5.78 at Archbishop McCarthy High School in Southwest Ranches, 3.35 inches at Pasadena Lakes and 2.71 inches in Weston.

The rain is the result of a weak cold front. It is expected to continue this evening and into Tuesday, the weather service said.
hi guys wow wow wow wow wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey doc this is a nice one LOL kinda got people up and saying whaaat
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys wow wow wow wow wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
hey doc this is a nice one LOL kinda got people up and saying whaaat


exactly what I was thinking... :P
Quoting Huracan09:
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/2unvsdu.jpg[/IMG]

Repost
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Sure ;) Was möchten Sie hören?


Nichts. Aber Sie schreiben sehr gut auf Englisch. Sind Sie Deutche oder Amerikaner?
Quoting Grothar:


Nichts. Aber Sie schreiben sehr gut auf Englisch. Sind Sie Deutche oder Amerikaner?


Hawk, how long's it gonna be?
Quoting tornadodude:


exactly what I was thinking... :P

is that so tornadodude
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

is that so tornadodude


not quite as emphatically
Quoting caneswatch:


Hawk, how long's it gonna be?


Ein Augenblick, Canes!
208. xcool
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season will be more active than the 50-year average and the relatively quiet 2009 season, forecasters at WSI Corp. said Tuesday.

WSI expects 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes with sustained Category 3 winds of 111-130 miles per hour in the season which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. That's more than the 50-year average of 10 storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes, but near the 15-year average of 14 storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes.

The 2009 season was the quietest since 1997, with nine storms, three hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

WSI said a landfall forecasting model suggests that Georgia and the Carolinas region are at most risk for landfall this season, with near-normal to slightly below normal probabilities in other coastal areas. WSI said the model was correct in predicting an active 2008 hurricane season on the Gulf Coast and a quiet 2009 season.

WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford said El Nino conditions helped suppress activity in the 2009 season, referring to the unusual warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean, with wide-ranging impacts. But recent patterns suggest that the 2010 season could be even busier than currently expected.

"The previous five El Nino events have all been followed by significant increases in tropical activity the following summer as the vertical shear weakens and the tropical Atlantic warms up," Crawford said. "We expect a similar result this summer, and feel that our current forecast numbers are more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as we get closer to the season."

-By David Bird, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2141; david.bird@dowjones.com
Quoting Grothar:


Nichts. Aber Sie schreiben sehr gut auf Englisch. Sind Sie Deutche oder Amerikaner?
Danke. Ich habe die Deutsche Staatsangehörigkeit und kenne die USA ganz gut.
Don't forget....

Quoting tornadodude:
For you Evening bloggers:

So, GeoffreyWPB and I came up with a spectacular idea!

Go to my blog, pick the team you think will win the Super Bowl. If your team does not win, then you will donate $10 to Portlight! Great way to raise money for Portlight, have fun, and root on your favorite team!

so get to work! My blog
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Repost


That is some little storm. Don't recall ever seeing one like it this time of year. Anyone one know if there will be ENSO neutral conditions this summer or fall?
Wonder if the GFS will go crazy this season...I remember last April, it was spitting out Hurricanes like crazy.
Quoting Grothar:
Since the blog is quiet tonight, there is a question I have wanted to ask but I wanted to wait for the right time.

Do any of you have opinions on anthropogenic global warming?

Gee, I enjoy using that word anthropogenic. Since most people learned how to spell it, it is now one of the most commonly used words in the language and on this blog. I think it may replace cyclogenesis as the most overused word.


Yes!
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Danke. Ich habe die Deutsche Staatsangehörigkeit und kenne die USA ganz gut.


Ich danke Ihnen für die Erklärung. I just wondered how you wrote so well. Glad you have joined us.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Yes!


Glad you like that one. How have you been Grt?
Gro, I know that WSI has put out their forecast but how reliable is it comparable to the previous years?
Quoting Grothar:


Ich danke Ihnen für die Erklärung. I just wondered how you wrote so well. Glad you have joined us.
I learned english from my visit to the US and by watching english movies/reading english internet sites.
I still have to learn a lot and take every chance in doing so.
Quoting twistermania:


How many times do I gotta tell you guys? If you want 70 degree temps all winter long, move here to Michigan! :D


Where in Michigan do you live and have 70 degree temps?

(I'm in SW Mich and right now it is 25 degrees.)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


GrtLksQuest, is twistermania a friend of yours?


Just posted, asking where twist lives. I haven't seen 70 for ages.
its what you expect with a warm front that stalls over the state of florida. rain and mosquitos
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL COLLIER...COASTAL
MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...
GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND
MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...MAINLAND MONROE...METRO
BROWARD...METRO MIAMI DADE AND METRO PALM BEACH.

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

THE COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER THE REGION AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION HAS RESULTED IN
CONDITIONS THAT ARE CONDUCIVE TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER ISOLATED AREAS MAY REACH 5 TO
7 INCHES. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
Quoting Grothar:


That is some little storm. Don't recall ever seeing one like it this time of year. Anyone one know if there will be ENSO neutral conditions this summer or fall?
NEUTRAL just as we enter june or just after still early 3 more months will know better
this year maybe we meet scary shary
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Just posted, asking where twist lives. I haven't seen 70 for ages.


twist's blog says, Berrien Springs, Michigan,

And it's in the 20s! Obviously he's trying to sell us some real estate, LOL.

Pizza's finally here! CYL.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Just posted, asking where twist lives. I haven't seen 70 for ages.
70's i be happy with 50's
Strange case of moving weather posts and a scientist under siege

In the first part of a major investigation of the so-called 'climategate' emails, one of Britain's top science writers reveals how researchers tried to hide flaws in a key study.....
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWO
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 11-20092010
4:00 AM Réunion February 2 2010
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11R (999 hPa) located at 19.7S 43.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 28 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east-southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 45.0E - (Depression Sur Terre)
24 HRS: 21.2S 48.8E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.9S 53.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.0S 58.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================

Environmental conditions are favorable to intensification, with a weakening vertical wind shear, under the southern edge of the upper level ridge, as the minimum track over very favorable energetic potential. Feeding flows are mainly due to monsoon flow, but the polar inflow is forecasted to improve on the south of the channel.

The system is forecast to track globally eastward under the main steering influence of highs located north of the system.

The system may reach storm stage before its landfall on the Malagasy coast nearby Morondava between 0600z and 1200z, today. Iti is forecasted to exit over seas over the Indian Ocean with favorable conditions beyond 24 hrs forecast ahead of a trough.
NASA funding plan takes a broader view
Under Obama's budget proposal, the agency would cancel plans to return to the moon, and instead focus on building rockets that could someday go farther.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-na-budget-nasa2-2010feb02,0,2292711.story


TD 11R infrared radar image
Quoting Grothar:


Glad you like that one. How have you been Grt?


Quoting Grothar:


Glad you like that one. How have you been Grt?


You have wu mail.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Strange case of moving weather posts and a scientist under siege

In the first part of a major investigation of the so-called 'climategate' emails, one of Britain's top science writers reveals how researchers tried to hide flaws in a key study.....

Still the predictions of the last IPCC report are considered conservative. So i'm looking forward to an update. It will be more grim, hence the approach of china and lately the us to act accordingly.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


twist's blog says, Berrien Springs, Michigan,

And it's in the 20s! Obviously he's trying to sell us some real estate, LOL.

Pizza's finally here! CYL.


Wow! That's only 10 miles from me. I'm a volunteer at Fernwood Botanical Gardens, which is on the St. Joe River just south of Berrien Springs and I often shop at Apple Valley and Zick's in Berrien Springs. Small world.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NEUTRAL just as we enter june or just after


Thanks Keeper. I keep getting conflicting reports some same. Strong, some say neutral.
OK...one of you weather geniuses answer me this: What is the difference between 'rain'...and 'rain showers'?
Quoting presslord:
OK...one of you weather geniuses answer me this: What is the difference between 'rain'...and 'rain showers'?


well imo, rain is constant for an indefinite period of time, while rain showers occur randomly throughout a period of time
surprisingly...that mskes sense to me...
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Haiti three weeks later






http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/02/haiti_three_weeks_later.html?camp=localsearch:on:twit:bigp ic

A lot of images ...


Amazing images, heartbreaking and captures a society in collapse, which is also a disaster.
Quoting presslord:
surprisingly...that mskes sense to me...


ha I made sense? wow :p
Quoting presslord:
OK...one of you weather geniuses answer me this: What is the difference between 'rain'...and 'rain showers'?
more than 3 hrs period of rain less than 3 hrs rain shower
Quoting presslord:
OK...one of you weather geniuses answer me this: What is the difference between 'rain'...and 'rain showers'?


Hey press, suprised to see so many geniuses on the blog? Now what about asking what copious amounts of precipitation is. I always loved that one.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey press, suprised to see so many geniuses on the blog? Now what about asking what copious amounts of precipitation is. I always loved that one.


more than a thimble full...
Quoting Grothar:


Hey press, suprised to see so many geniuses on the blog? Now what about asking what copious amounts of precipitation is. I always loved that one.
large amount of precip in very short amount of time
Quoting tornadodude:


ha I made sense? wow :p


Hey TD, did you hear that in Broward County where I live, some of the towns are 50% under water? No fooling this time. We have been having rain and rain showers since last night. I would assume that would be considered copious, or substantial, would you say?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey TD, did you hear that in Broward County where I live, some of the towns are 50% under water? No fooling this time. We have been having rain and rain showers since last night. I would assume that would be considered copious, or substantial, would you say?


LOL well currently my dorm is 50% below sea level thanks to the copious amount of Urge
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
large amount of precip in very short amount of time


I thought that was a deluge? LOL
there's also one involving cows...and flat rocks...
Quoting Grothar:


Hey TD, did you hear that in Broward County where I live, some of the towns are 50% under water? No fooling this time. We have been having rain and rain showers since last night. I would assume that would be considered copious, or substantial, would you say?


Ask NRAmy how she survived the floods in her area. Maybe you need a purple hippo.
lets not forget cats and dogs
Quoting presslord:
there's also one involving cows...and flat rocks...


PRESS!!!!!!
Boy, everyone is on a roll tonight. It is like a evening at the Improv. Even GreatLakes is taking a turn. We are being "inundated" with puns. (EVERYBODY LIKE THAT ONE)
Hey, if you all don't mind, do you know the word for deluge in German?

die Überschwemmung! Things always sound worse in German. Now what would you rather have your local weatherman say. "We are going to have a deluge" or ein Überschwemmung?
Quoting Grothar:
Boy, everyone is on a roll tonight. It is like a evening at the Improv. Even GreatLakes is taking a turn. We are being "inundated" with puns. (EVERYBODY LIKE THAT ONE)


Groan!!!
...so...my forecast for tomorrow is 'rain', 'rain showers', and '100% chance of rain'............ wonder if we'll get any precipitation...
here is mine:

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of light snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest.
Quoting tornadodude:
here is mine:

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of light snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest.


How about our forecast tomorrow. Better than 100% chance of precipitation with a High in the upper middle to lower 70's.
Better than 100% chance of precipitation

...I'm no good with math...but...How does that work?!
Weather improves, but more storms to come

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says, while weather conditions have largely eased today in Queensland, more thunderstorms are expected later in the week.

About a dozen Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches in south-east Queensland were closed yesterday due to big seas and dangerous surf whipped up by ex-tropical cyclone Olga.

Chief Lifeguard Warren Young says Coolangatta and Palm Beach have been shut this morning and the situation will be reviewed throughout the day.

BOM senior forecaster Brian Rolstone says low-level monsoonal conditions have moved south, but higher circulation is causing the rough conditions to remain.

"At the moment, the weather will wind down over the eastern districts, but it'll come back in the form of rain and thunderstorms across southern Queensland on Thursday and Friday," he said.


A severe weather warning is still current for the Capricornia district and the far southern areas of the central highlands and coalfields.

BOM forecaster Mike Marinan says southern parts of Rockhampton received about 130 millimetres of rain overnight.

He says Rundle Island recorded the strongest winds overnight, with gusts of more than 100 kilometres per hour.

"The area of concern through today in the next 24 hours would be from about Rockhampton and south," he said.

"That's where the heaviest falls should occur."

"Wind conditions are still remaining quite strong with that severe weather warning current, particularly about southern central highlands - to the south of that decaying tropical cyclone Olga which is slowly moving south-west now and also through the coalfields and Capricornia," he said.


Central Queensland drivers are being warned not to try to cross flooded roads after a number of swift water rescues.

Authorities say two people managed to get themselves to safety after they got caught in a causeway south-west of Calliope near Gladstone early this morning.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS) officers also helped drivers stranded at Bouldercome and Stanwell.

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) spokesman Robbie Medlin says too many motorists are taking risks on flooded roads.

"I think people are underestimating the depth of the water and the flow of the water, and are assuming that the vehicle that they're in is capable of crossing that particular floodway that they're trying to go through," he said.


Rockhampton Regional Council mayor Brad Carter says, once the weather starts to improve, clean-up work can begin.

Councillor Carter says the deluge flooded roads, brought down trees and caused beach erosion throughout the region.

"We believe that the conditions will improve as the day goes on, but we do express a need for caution because of some potholes and some wash-outs that could be evident when the water recedes," he said.

"Our team of engineers and council officers will be inspecting those roads throughout the day."

In the central-west, Charleville Cosmos Centre spokeswoman Jane Morgan says European tourists visiting the region are surprised by the cool and wet conditions during the middle of summer.

"They say we came to see the red dirt and the heat and we've only had two days of heat - of anything even approaching 40 degrees - and now all of a sudden it's cold and green," she said.

"We get a lot of Scandinavians and Germans and they come out specifically to see the red dust and the dirt and the flies - you know they are just fascinated by it."

The Australian Flood Plain Association (AFPA) says rain and more flooding in Queensland's Channel Country will not just benefit graziers, but the region's tourism sector as well.

AFPA spokeswoman Karen Tully says, for the second year in a row, floodwater from Queensland is flowing towards Lake Eyre in South Australia.

She says more visitors may travel to see the inland river systems in flood.

"All our indicators are our numbers will be enhanced on last year ... particularly in Charleville and in Longreach and in Birdsville," she said.

"There was something like 30,000 tourists visited Innamincka [in South Australia].

"All our predictions are there will be greater number of visitors to our area."



Central Queensland drivers are being warned not to try to cross flooded roads after a number of swift water rescues. - ABC
Olga to rain on drought-ravaged NSW


Ex-tropical cyclone Olga has dumped heavy rain on some parts of Queensland as it drifts south towards NSW.


Farmers in New South Wales hope the remnants of ex-Tropical Cyclone Olga will keep heading south, bringing much-needed rain.

Some graziers in the far north-west of the state are still battling years of drought. While the rivers in the northern Murray-Darling catchment are running again, it is only a moderate flow so far, and follow-up rain is still needed to soak the parched outback landscape.

It has been 10 years since the last major flood hit north-western New South Wales but the recent rain in Queensland has now made it over the border and the rivers are running again.

The moderate flow is welcome for grazier Murray McClure from Trevallyn Station.

"Look at that new life, the growth in those trees, all in a matter of days," he said. "I bet they're loving it. We're loving the sight of it too."

The Darling River may be flowing but Trevallyn Station has not had decent rain for almost a year. Neither has a lot of the area in the north of the Murray-Darling catchment.

Mr McClure's property is still in the grip of an horrific drought. The red dust landscape is sunbaked and the feed cover is long gone.

He has had to destock and he is now hand-feeding the few sheep that remain.

"All the cattle have gone three or four months ago," he said.

"A few months ago the best of the ewes, they are all away and joined with rams, so hopefully it'll rain and we'll be able to bring them home for lambing."

But it is better news for irrigators. The recent flows have restored water allocations for those growers around Bourke in far-western New South Wales.

Bourke Mayor Andrew Lewis says after years of heartache, they will be able to finish their summer crop and have a winter crop as well.

"Anybody [who] got the good rain should be right through to spring," he said.

"A few more little follow-ups, we could do with an inch, now just to freshen the top up, but that is probably getting greedy. People out there, they need four or five inches. It'd be good."

That wish could be granted, with the Bureau of Meteorology predicting good rain in the Darling catchment over coming days and potentially as far south as the Riverina.

At Mark Etheridge's property near Wilcannia in north-western New South Wales, the children are enjoying swimming in a river that was once a dry bed.

But his property is still parched and while he is overjoyed to see the Darling River running again he says a lot more water is needed if this outback landscape is to return to a healthy state.

"This flood doesn't stop the drought," he said.

"It alleviates the symptoms in the river as you can see. The trees are putting on new growth. They are very happy. It is doing a wonderful job but it's far from over.

"The floodplain really needs to get wet to survive properly and that won't happen this time but gee, who knows, it may happen next month, next year."

- ABC
Graziers rejoice as rains drench southern Qld

The remnants of tropical cyclone Olga have delivered big dividends for graziers in south-west Queensland, with some of the state's most drought-affected country soaked in recent days.

ABC reporter Paul Lockyer has been travelling through the region in a helicopter.

"After delivering big falls around central Queensland, we tracked the rainfront as it spread west from Thargomindah to Durham Downs on the Cooper Creek," he said.

"We later flew through even heavier rain as we travelled up the Cooper to Windorah.

"Steady, soaking rain continues to spread to the south-west towards New South Wales and South Australia."

It is a new year bonus for graziers on top of Christmas rain.

Steady falls have been reported in south-west Queensland around Thargomindah and Quilpie, while Charleville has had its best rain in 16 years, recording 114 millimetres to 9am AEST yesterday.

Thargomindah resident Andrew Hughes says graziers are thrilled because they have battled drought for almost a decade.

"It's been unbelievably dry so it's good to finally get a wet year - everything is sort of bouncing back a fair bit," he said.

"With this steady rain we hope that the red country is going to really come good - it's nice to wake up and see green everywhere."

Mr Hughes says frogs have also become a common sight on water-logged properties.

"We've got a heap of swamps on our place - some of the bigger ones are four kilometres wide, so it is unbelievable seeing the wildlife on them and the greenery around them," he said.

"God the frogs ! You can't walk anywhere at the moment without seeing a frog out in the middle of the paddock.

"They are breeding up at the moment too so they are making lots of noise."

The heavy rain forced the closure of some roads at Roma.

More than 130 millimetres has fallen in the Roma region in the last 48 hours and parts of the Carnarvon and Dawson Highways are cut.

State Emergency Service volunteers are sandbagging along Bungil Creek in Roma as a precaution.

Meanwhile, new figures show despite some heavy rainfall over the past two days, average falls for the Wide-Bay Burnett in south-east Queensland were down for January.

Rainfall at Hervey Bay Airport in January was down almost 70 per cent on last year with only 59 millimetres.

Average temperatures were up slightly for the region, with Gayndah recording 33.3 degrees Celsius, up 0.5 degrees for January.

Queensland Climate Services manager Dr Jeff Sabburg says it was a relatively dry month for the region.

"It usually gets 174 millimetres in January - it only came in at 59 millimetres for January of this year and similarly for Gayndah Airport, only 37 per cent of its average, which is 113 millimetres.

"It came in at 42 millimetres so both those being similar and below average."

- Reporting by Paul Lockyer, Chrissy Arthur, Fidelis Rego and Jackson Vernon

- ABC
Quoting presslord:
Better than 100% chance of precipitation

...I'm no good with math...but...How does that work?!


You never heard in Football when the players put in 110%. Where have you been child?? LOL
Quoting Grothar:


You never heard in Football when the players put in 110%. Where have you been child?? LOL


LOL


Happy Groundhog's Day, Aussie!


Happy Groundhog's Day, WeatherUnderground!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Happy Groundhog's Day, Aussie!

HEHEHE
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Happy Groundhog's Day, Aussie!


I don't think they have groundhogs in Australia. I think there that if a wallaby sees a kangaroos shadow, they have 6 more months of summer.
Quoting Grothar:


I don't think they have groundhogs in Australia. I think there that if a wallaby sees a kangaroos shadow, they have 6 more months of summer.


Maybe so. I don't really get the pic, but I liked it...maybe the groundhog is in Momma Kangaroo's pouch!


Look a blob.
270. Blobcaster!
Quoting Grothar:


Look a blob.
I find it amazing that you are having incredible record setting amounts of rain in DADE & BROWARD counties (2.8 and counting inches at Miami airport) and no indication of warnings on the US severe weather map
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I find it amazing that you are having incredible record setting amounts of rain in DADE & BROWARD counties (2.8 and counting inches at Miami airport) and no indication of warnings on the US severe weather map


Funny that you mention that because many people here are saying the same thing. We don't even get these amounts during the rainy season. Very unusual, but not uncommon in an El Nino year. Some of the places have received enormous amounts of rain all over South Florida and hardly a mention.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
270. Blobcaster!


I have been called worse, even by TD.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Happy Groundhog's Day, WeatherUnderground!


Bless your heart girl, it's good to see your as crazy as ever! Heck, it was weather realted though!!
Quoting Grothar:


I have been called worse, even by TD.



haha oh, like it wasnt asked for :P
Quoting Grothar:


Funny that you mention that because many people here are saying the same thing. We don't even get these amounts during the rainy season. Very unusual, but not uncommon in an El Nino year. Some of the places have received enormous amounts of rain all over South Florida and hardly a mention.
Are there shelters open? Are homes getting wet inside? or is mainly water in the streets. Local Miami news web sites have poor info about this too.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Bless your heart girl, it's good to see your as crazy as ever! Heck, it was weather realted though!!


I'm counting on that! And, it's even Dr. Masters' blog related -- wonder if he knows what a can of groundhog he's opened! (:

Next post
My next post will be Tuesday (Groundhog's Day), when I plan to discuss Punxsutawney Phil's forecast for the rest of winter. I'll throw in my two cents worth, too.

Jeff Masters
Quoting tornadodude:



haha oh, like it wasnt asked for :P



As gentle a soul as I am. I am shocked. Here I am almost 50% under water with all this rain and no pity.
Quoting Grothar:



As gentle a soul as I am. I am shocked. Here I am almost 50% under water with all this rain and no pity.


yeah 50% under water with 70 degree weather

Quoting Grothar:



As gentle a soul as I am. I am shocked. Here I am almost 50% under water with all this rain and no pity.


Man I know you guys have had a lot of rain, I was thinking about showing a lil pitty :0)!!


Quoting Bordonaro:


Man I know you guys have had a lot of rain, I was thinking about showing a lil pitty :0)!!


You always come up with a good one. My mother used to do that to us when we were young. If we wanted to feel sorry for ourselves, She said wait while I take out my violin. HA Cant't believe you posted that of all things. Really funny.
Quoting Grothar:


You always come up with a good one. My mother used to do that to us when we were young. If we wanted to feel sorry for ourselves, She said wait while I take out my violin. HA Cant't believe you posted that of all things. Really funny.





Quoting Grothar:


You always come up with a good one. My mother used to do that to us when we were young. If we wanted to feel sorry for ourselves, She said wait while I take out my violin. HA Cant't believe you posted that of all things. Really funny.


I am 56/100 % comedian, the rest of me just floats like Ivory soap!!
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Are there shelters open? Are homes getting wet inside? or is mainly water in the streets. Local Miami news web sites have poor info about this too.


No, I haven't heard of shelters, but the roads have flooded all over. A few feet of water in some places. A number of homes have had roof collapse but nothing too serious. More rain coming though.

Isn't is nice the blog is throwing a "Pity Party" for me. They are just a bunch of "wild and crazy guys" these bloggers. They will do anything for laugh.
Quoting Bordonaro:


I am 56/100 % comedian, the rest of me just floats like Ivory soap!!


Yea, the 44% stayed in the soap. I remember that commercial 99.44% pure. HA Shows you how gullible we were in those days. I dont' think anyone under 50 would get that one.
Good night all - Glad to see the humor and good vibes return. And maybe we won't be hearing about drought in Florida or Australia for awhile?

Happy Ground Hog (Wallaby?) Day!
See you on the new blog tomorrow.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
Good night all - Glad to see the humor and good vibes return. And maybe we won't be hearing about drought in Florida or Australia for awhile?

Happy Ground Hog (Wallaby?) Day!
See you on the new blog tomorrow.


Good Night, GrtLady!

Quoting GrtLksQuest:
Good night all - Glad to see the humor and good vibes return. And maybe we won't be hearing about drought in Florida or Australia for awhile?

Happy Ground Hog (Wallaby?) Day!
See you on the new blog tomorrow.


have a great one, michigan grandma!
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah 50% under water with 70 degree weather



My goodness, you'd have thought I wrote a dissertation on Global Warming to have this much abuse heaped upon me. LOLOLOLOL
Take care Great Lakes. See you soon. I hope you had a few laughs.
Quoting Grothar:


My goodness, you'd have thought I wrote a dissertation on Global Warming to have this much abuse heaped upon me. LOLOLOLOL


LOL well :p jk
Quoting tornadodude:


have a great one, michigan grandma!


Thanks t'dude. Your Michigan gramma keeps an eye on your area - It appears that you'll be getting some snow soon, if it hasn't started already. We're due for an inch or two tonight.


Quoting Grothar:
Take care Great Lakes. See you soon. I hope you had a few laughs.


And thank you, Grothar for all you do.
Yes, I had some laughs tonight - going all the way back to AussieStorm's joke and even through yours.
Good night everyone. It has been a pleasure. Really nice to see everyone back in good humor. I have so many people on ignore that I had to get a new computer for the list. Much easier on the nerves that way. Everyone take care and stay dry. Thanks for the "Pity Party" It was fun. Hope everyone has good weather.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Repost

(post 202 quoted)

OMG!! Dr masters posting a subtropical low in februrary? this seriously better be named. Unlike 90L and 92L last year, which really deserved it. But maybe if Dr Masters posted it, itll come to fruition. This kind of warm core stuff DOES happen in isolated northern spots, and this post definitely proves it! Come on NHC, wake up!!!!!

definitely doesnt look that subtropical anymore but oh well, still impressive.

Link
Good night, Grothar (if I didn't miss you).

Good night, everyone. It was fun in here tonight.

00:00 (EST) & all is well...
Monday 2/8/10 18Z forecast map.
GFS 00Z 2/2/10 run
10M wind/2M temp, YUCK, cold below freezing & precip for North TX:

Grothar, if you are able to read this, I will on tomorrow (actually today) at around 5.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Monday 2/8/10 18Z forecast map.
GFS 00Z 2/2/10 run
10M wind/2M temp, YUCK, cold below freezing & precip for North TX:

Yea, and I gotta play race official in College Station over the weekend, forecast shifting. No problem for my experienced workers, but I usually have some aggie students show up to work that, well, let's say they're often not adequately prepared.
I would just like to thank everyone on WU for their very kind words and the many emails i have received. WOW you all are so kind as many of others so very well know as well. Thank you from not just my family but, the many others you all help in times of need. You all are awsome. Again Thanks!
Looks like Matt has some more flakes a flying .....good for you Matt......LOL

Hey everyone.. Happy Ground hogs day.. hope everyone is doing alright..
G'nite, all!
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THREE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FAMI (11-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion February 2 2010
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fami (994 hPa) located at 20.6S 43.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================


Near Gale Force Winds
====================


Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.6S 46.0E - (Depression Sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.4S 50.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.4S 55.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.3S 62.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
The system has intensified within favorable environmental condistions as shown by the microwave imagery. It should make its landfall on the Western Malagasy coast near Monrondava in the next hours. The system is forecast to track generally eastward under the main steering influence of highs located north of tropical storm Fami.

It is forecassted to exit over seas over the Indian Ocean beyond 12 hrs forecast track and should not significantly re intensify due to a moderate to strong wind shear.
TampaSpin: You have my sympathy.
Poor poor pitiful Tampa!

Phil saw his shadow.

Sigh......


Mornin all!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would just like to thank everyone on WU for their very kind words and the many emails i have received. WOW you all are so kind as many of others so very well know as well. Thank you from not just my family but, the many others you all help in times of need. You all are awsome. Again Thanks!


I Tampa I've haven't been on lately but I am so sorry for your loss. You and your family have my prayers. Stay strong my friend!
Tampa Spin, Will be in my prayers, sorry for your loss. John
Quoting Grothar:


Funny that you mention that because many people here are saying the same thing. We don't even get these amounts during the rainy season. Very unusual, but not uncommon in an El Nino year. Some of the places have received enormous amounts of rain all over South Florida and hardly a mention.




Apparently you don't know Florida very well, those rain amounts are unusual this time of year, but it is El Nino so it makes since.

However that amount of rain is definitely NOT unusual in the wet season, 2 inches of rain in Miami in the wet season, or any Florida city is just a typical afternoon downpour, local amounts of 8 inches in the wet season are quite common too
312. P451
303. That radar image sure seems to be showing a lot more QPF than forecasted. Must be a lot of virga.

I'm only slated to get an 1" of snow tonight here in Jersey.

Today's QPF
Sorry to hear it Tampa.
Quoting Jedkins01:




Apparently you don't know Florida very well, those rain amounts are unusual this time of year, but it is El Nino so it makes since.

However that amount of rain is definitely NOT unusual in the wet season, 2 inches of rain in Miami in the wet season, or any Florida city is just a typical afternoon downpour, local amounts of 8 inches in the wet season are quite common too


Agreed, there are times in the summer especially during sea-breeze collisions where we can pick up locally 8" in a very short amount of time. Also, this does occur during El-Nino years as well.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Agreed, there are times in the summer especially during sea-breeze collisions where we can pick up locally 8" in a very short amount of time. Also, this does occur during El-Nino years as well.
1-3 inches 8 inches doubt it in the summer once its cools off it usually stops raining unless there is a tropical system nearby
Hey all, how's things, What have i missed?
Floodman, I hope that info I gave you helped out. Just want to try and do my little bit to help out Portlight.
I miss the Sun, havnt seen the sun in two days.
Quoting StormChaser81:
I miss the Sun, havnt seen the sun in two days.

I miss rain, oh wait, it's raining now, Thanks ex TC Olga. hehe
Good morning, folks!
Quoting Floodman:
Good morning, folks!
Good Morning Flood, my (abazooti) is on the mend!
Quoting leftovers:
1-3 inches 8 inches doubt it in the summer once its cools off it usually stops raining unless there is a tropical system nearby


There have been times where 4 to 8" have occured at my house when there are light steering currents and sea breezes collide over the interior. I had 6.75 during a collision last August. I live near Apopka and we seem to be the sea breeze collision battle ground area.
It is pouring in Orlando today. Very heavy rain right now and more is coming.
Quoting transitzone:

Yea, and I gotta play race official in College Station over the weekend, forecast shifting. No problem for my experienced workers, but I usually have some aggie students show up to work that, well, let's say they're often not adequately prepared.

Thanks for being nice about that...

BTW, you race SCCA? My dad runs in La, and at Memphis, Road Atlanta, Watkins Glen (I think).

What are most 19 year-olds adequately prepared for, anyway? Anything?
(Sry, tdude)
Quoting Jeff9641:


There have been times where 4 to 8" have occured at my house when there are light steering currents and sea breezes collide over the interior. I had 6.75 during a collision last August. I live near Apopka and we seem to be the sea breeze collision battle ground area.

We have had those in SE LA, too. Any time of the year things might line up to give us 8 inches in a half day. I can think of a dozen events like that. Had 12 inches over the course of day a couple of years ago during spring(?...I think so). Not at all tropical-related.
Food supplies ferried to isolated Gulf towns

Food supplies are being ferried into the isolated towns of Normanton and Karumba in the Gulf of Carpentaria in far north Queensland.

Carpentaria Shire Council mayor Fred Pascoe says the Gulf is facing re-supply problems in the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone Olga, which crossed the coast on the weekend.

There are flood warnings for the Flinders, Norman and Gulf rivers, but Councillor Pascoe says towns will not miss out on supplies.

"They're ferrying food stuff across the Norman River about 20 kilometres out on the Cairns Road, so things are holding up pretty well," he said.

"We will get the food stuff into Normanton and then we will barge it down to Karumba in one hit."

Bad weather has forced the closure of the port of Gladstone in central Queensland.

Ports Corporation spokesman Leo Zussino says strong winds and heavy rain make the port unsafe for shipping.

He says authorities will re-assess the situation twice a day while the weather remains bad.

Mr Zussino says several ships have been affected.

"We have nine vessels that are actually in the harbour - they have to be obviously unloaded or loaded - and another 16 last night left their anchorages to go to outer seas because of the winds," he said.

"With respect to the coal industry, it then comes down to how much impact the rain has had upon the coal mines and also on the rail system."

Authorities are continuing to monitor a swollen creek as the flood threat in the southern inland town of Roma eases.

Parts of Bungil Creek were sandbagged Monday night as a precaution.

The Maranoa Regional Mayor Rob Loughnan says sections of the Carnarvon and Dawson Highways are cut, but the rain has done wonders for local farms.

"[With] the Bungil Creek specifically there was some concerns it may have reached the top of the bank last night but I think it got to 5.5 metres, so there was no need to evacuate anyone or anything like that," he said.

"All the creeks seem to be ... going down pretty well."


Central Queensland drivers are being warned not to try to cross flooded roads after a number of swift water rescues.

Authorities say two people managed to get themselves to safety after they got caught in a causeway south-west of Calliope near Gladstone early Tuesday.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS) officers also helped drivers stranded at Bouldercome and Stanwell.

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) spokesman Robbie Medlin says too many motorists are taking risks on flooded roads.

"I think people are underestimating the depth of the water and the flow of the water, and are assuming that the vehicle that they're in is capable of crossing that particular floodway that they're trying to go through," he said.


Rockhampton Regional Council mayor Brad Carter says, once the weather starts to improve, clean-up work can begin.

Councillor Carter says the deluge flooded roads, brought down trees and caused beach erosion throughout the region.

"We do express a need for caution because of some potholes and some wash-outs that could be evident when the water recedes," he said.

In the central-west, Charleville Cosmos Centre spokeswoman Jane Morgan says European tourists visiting the region are surprised by the cool and wet conditions during the middle of summer.

"They say we came to see the red dirt and the heat and we've only had two days of heat - of anything even approaching 40 degrees - and now all of a sudden it's cold and green," she said.

"We get a lot of Scandinavians and Germans and they come out specifically to see the red dust and the dirt and the flies - you know they are just fascinated by it."

The Australian Flood Plain Association (AFPA) says rain and more flooding in Queensland's Channel Country will not just benefit graziers, but the region's tourism sector as well.

AFPA spokeswoman Karen Tully says, for the second year in a row, floodwater from Queensland is flowing towards Lake Eyre in South Australia.

She says more visitors may travel to see the inland river systems in flood.

"All our indicators are our numbers will be enhanced on last year ... particularly in Charleville and in Longreach and in Birdsville," she said.

"There was something like 30,000 tourists visited Innamincka [in South Australia].

"All our predictions are there will be greater number of visitors to our area."


- ABC
Southern QLD: the soaking continues


As expected the rain has eased over southern Queensland in the last 24 hours, with the focus of the rainfall moving away into eastern South Australia and northwestern New South Wales.

To 9am on Tuesday, parts of the Maranoa and Channel Country districts
received anywhere from 25 to 60 millmetres.

Some rainfall totals of note are:

- 56 millimetres at Eromanga, the wettest day in 33 years for February and in three years for any month

- 39 millimetres at Thargomindah, the wettest February day in a decade

- 62 millimetres in Orientos, the most rain on a February day since 1979

The beauty of this particular rainfall event is that it is merely a follow-up to good rains over the last month or more. This means that the land is much more ready to receive the falls and to funnel it into rivers and streams.

The widespread cloud has also accomplished another feat of respite: blocking extreme heat.

- Birdsville had its coldest February day in six years, hitting just 24 degrees, 14 below the average

- Longreach only hit 25 degrees, 11 below the norm and potentially the coldest day since 1996

Cloud and rain will continue to move from QLD into NSW over the next 24 hours.

- Weatherzone
Olga hangover to bring Goulburn Murray rain


Remnants of ex-tropical cyclone Olga are expected to bring rain to the Goulburn Murray region in the coming days.

Albury-Wodonga received 8.6 millimetres of rain last night, while Deniliquin had 1.2mm.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Michael Halfpenny says there could be more rain tomorrow.

"We'll perhaps see a few showers developing tomorrow afternoon, a little bit of instability, increasing cloud and temperatures still pretty hot, up to the mid 30s again," Mr Halfpenny said.

"Thursday that system gets a bit closer and a front coming up to the west will link up to that system, so we're likely to see rain by the end of Thursday, perhaps a chance of thunderstorms as well."

- ABC
Tsunami communities frustrated by slow rebuild


Many of the Samoan communities destroyed by last year's tsunami say they are getting frustrated with the slow progress of rebuilding.

Nearly 200 people in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga were killed in the disaster.

Since the September tsunami, most of the Samoan communities destroyed have moved into the hills to rebuild their villages.

Samoa's government has received millions of dollars from Australia, New Zealand and other international donors to assist rebuilding efforts.

The Chief Executive of Habitats for Humanity New Zealand, Pete North, says despite the wet season, it has been able to build a number of new homes.

"So we're personally doing about 250 houses, which we hope to complete by the end of June," he said.

But many in the tsunami zone are unhappy with what they claim is to slow progress, saying the government officials responsible are hindering, not helping.

- ABC
Can someone ask me in a few days if i have fixed up my bookmarks, put them in order, topic. please


Goodnight from Sydney.

What, did i kill the blog, oh well. might a well go to bed then, goodnight.
Quoting AussieStorm:
What, did i kill the blog, oh well. might a well go to bed then, goodnight.
Good Night Aussie. You did not kill the blog.:)
Goodnight.

Think folks are waiting on Docs new post.
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning Flood, my (abazooti) is on the mend!


As is mine...still not 100% but it's becoming increasing obvious that I will survive...LOL
336. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Floodman:


As is mine...still not 100% but it's becoming increasing obvious that I will survive...LOL
You were accurate with the time also, it lasted about five days. How is the back doing?
Quoting hydrus:
You were accurate with the time also, it lasted about five days. How is the back doing?


Good...just back from a brisk 1 mile walk...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Thanks for being nice about that...

BTW, you race SCCA? My dad runs in La, and at Memphis, Road Atlanta, Watkins Glen (I think).

What are most 19 year-olds adequately prepared for, anyway? Anything?
(Sry, tdude)

F&C for SCCA. This weekend is PCA, where I'm safety & operations steward and driving instructor. The aggies that grew up on farms and ranches are generally prepared for weather, the rest not so much
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HdV9lAOlW4

here it is the link to the video that resumes the subtropical storms evolution.
the storm hit hit madeira and canarias islands very hard and southern portugal/SE spain more softly.
in madeira some unofficial stations reported 200-300mm in 24h!
here in lisbon we had only some showers/periods of rain with totals up to 10-15mm