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Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting txraysfan:
Have a friend in Kingsville, any word on how they are faring?


They said sustained gusts of 39 miles per hour and tropical storm gusts up to 70? They didn't say anything about damages.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


They said sustained gusts of 39 miles per hour and tropical storm gusts up to 70? They didn't say anything about damages.
Thanks for the info, am just hoping he's ok
sorry if you think I'm insulting you well let me tell you I am not insulting you I know you are smarter so start acting

lol just messn with ya plz don't take it porsanaly

but anyway besides that you under stand the rest of what I said ya
Quoting txraysfan:
womanmarine-what part of Corpus you from? Am north of you-Victoria county, but close to Port Lavaca

In Rockport here, it's raining (which we definitely need) and nothing more. Looks like Hermine went in near Brownsville.
I'll say it again--if this is all S. TX gets this season, we'll take it--these winds are winds we see a lot of times on just windy days! I know Mexico doesn't need the flooding since they just went through all that flooding with Alex in June, but a TS is definitely a lot better than what we could get.
I agree Scott...it was said that the high would be so dominant without re-curves! Instead since Danielle it's been the theme and I.ve seen this happen before...the weakness never leaves



Quoting scott39:
Looks like a weakness in the high at 60 longitude, is going to be the theme in the Atlantic this season. What happened to the strong high this season to keep storms from recurving? Hope this continues.
Any long range threats to the conus we may have 2 worry about.. models predict anything?
Quoting cctxshirl:

In Rockport here, it's raining (which we definitely need) and nothing more. Looks like Hermine went in near Brownsville.
I'll say it again--if this is all S. TX gets this season, we'll take it--these winds are winds we see a lot of times on just windy days! I know Mexico doesn't need the flooding since they just went through all that flooding with Alex in June, but a TS is definitely a lot better than what we could get.
Could have been so much worse! I am sure glad we mowed on Sunday-no telling how long it's gonna take to dry out here
Interesting difference between the 06z GFS and the 00z Euro on the 2nd wave.

The GFS wants to make it a Gaston, basically falling apart not long after forming.

The Euro wants it to pull a Fred and get strong, fast.
What happened 2 the African wave train? Peak of the season nears and it looks like June
1510. scott39
Quoting portcharlotte:
I agree Scott...it was said that the high would be so dominant without re-curves! Instead since Danielle it's been the theme and I.ve seen this happen before...the weakness never leaves



The high is dominant right now,although Pre-Igor feels the weakness on most models at about 60W.Its almost like the high is moving out of the way for these majors to re-curve,and then a trough is coming in to kick it.
1511. scott39
Quoting mcluvincane:
What happened 2 the African wave train? Peak of the season nears and it looks like June
Its still there. Models are picking up on a couple potential TCs for this week and next.
1512. Keys99
From the National Weather Service Key West

IN 1965...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BETSY MOVED WEST ACROSS THE UPPER
KEYS...THROUGH FLORIDA BAY AND NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. KEY WEST
MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 81 MPH AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 29.44" AS
WELL AS STORM TIDE OF 5-7 FT...WHILE BIG PINE EXPERIENCED WINDS OF
125-140 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH. IN 1878...A TROPICAL STORM MOVED
NORTH NORTHWEST OFF OF CUBA...CROSSING THE MIDDLE KEYS.
hmm a ULH has now developed just to the east of gaston should be over or a little closer to him soon when it happens should help out gastons little problem and the the booming will start
1514. IKE
Latest GFS in 10 days....Igor heading to the north ATL....

The last 3 storms that have made their way into the Caribbean past October have all become hurricanes (not inc the GoM/BoC etc).

Hurricane Ida, 2009.
Hurricane Paloma, 2008.
Hurricane Omar, 2008.

Even in 2007, Noel eventually became a hurricane. Olga sorta got done in by the Hispaniola mountains and never really got to spend time splashing in the water.

This season probably does have at least one more Cape Verde long tracker in it. Igor may end up taking a similar path to Earl or it might not, way too early to tell. A CV hurricane will probably come despite the dry air. Two? We'll see. The CV season still has 3 weeks or so left.

October might not be fun, though.

Anything could pull an Opal, Hilda, Paloma etc.
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS in 10 days....Igor heading to the north ATL....



Ike:

Do you think dry air will be a problem for future Igor in the Atlantic?
1517. mbjjm
oz now in Hermine's eyewall in Alice,Texas



Live
1518. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS in 10 days....Igor heading to the north ATL....

Im starting to think a CV-TC is looking to be less of a threat on the Gulf Coast, as the season moves forward.
1519. IKE
Quoting Eugeniopr:


Ike:

Do you think dry air will be a problem for future Igor in the Atlantic?


Not based on what the models are showing.

Brownsville,TX. airport...peak wind gust from Hermine...Max Gust Speed 69 mph
Morning, Ike, Cotillion, et al.

Running late today - first day of EllieRose's senior year, LOL. Coffee, juice and french toast on the sideboard.

Atlantic is not looking bad for this time of year, but I doubt Mexico needed any more rain...
im surprised the circulation of Hermine is still pretty strong and still has an eye on radar
1522. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF GASTON NEAR 17N60W 1010 MB
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN PASSING S OF PUERTO RICO WED...S OF
HISPANIOLA WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AND S OF JAMAICA FRI INTO SAT.
A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF 18N ALONG 75W WILL MOVE SLOWLY W
REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT.
...........................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE CENTER TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INLAND AT 27.0N
98.0W AT 4 AM CDT 993 MB MOVING N NW OR 340 DEG AT 15 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT OVER WATER WITH
WARNINGS SHIFTING INLAND BY NOON TODAY. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES INLAND ACROSS FAR NE MEXICO TO S TEXAS
NEAR 28.7N 99.0W THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NEAR 30.9N 100.1W TONIGHT...FURTHER WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 33.3N 100.2W WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DRIFT W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
Looks as if Corpus to Kingsville and up to Victoria is getting the worst of it at the moment
Of course, yet another season that makes you think:

How many seasons before satellite would have picked up on a Bonnie, a Colin, a Gaston? Gaston would be very unlikely.

2009: Grace wouldn't have been named. Erika? Henri? Take those 3 storms out and you get 6-3-2.

2008: Arthur. Nana, for sure. Marco. Laura. Josephine. All 5 storms might not have been named a few years ago. What does that leave us? 11-8-5.

2007: Andrea wouldn't have been, it was subtropical. Barry, possibly. Chantal might not have been. Not Jerry. Erin might've been missed, it was over in a flash. Melissa probably not. Say keeping Barry and Erin at least, you still only get 11-6-2.

Not to say that these shouldn't have been named - they should. However, you look at it in a historical perspective with a 're-adjusted' number and many of those seasons would not look out of place in years gone-by.

Further proving why the 10-6-2 climatology average is nonsense (nonsense without due clarification and balancing).
Quoting IKE:


Not based on what the models are showing.

Brownsville,TX. airport...peak wind gust from Hermine...Max Gust Speed 69 mph


I saw the models but if you take a look to the dry air map you will see that the dry air in its way is very intense. Let see what happens.

Take Care
Quoting IKE:


Not based on what the models are showing.

Brownsville,TX. airport...peak wind gust from Hermine...Max Gust Speed 69 mph


I actually disagree.

Looking at the Euro, it keeps Igor as a TS or so before intensifying it up by the islands a la Earl. GFS doesn't really bomb it that much (a stark difference to Danielle).

I can't think shear would be too much of a problem, so I'd assume it'd be dry air keeping it in check.
1527. surfmom
Good Morning Fans of Daybreak
Sipping Java & scouting out what Hermine is up to....
1528. Patrap
Morning Surf - been daybreak here for quite a while, LOL.
1530. Patrap
1531. Patrap
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, Ike, Cotillion, et al.

Running late today - first day of EllieRose's senior year, LOL. Coffee, juice and french toast on the sideboard.

Atlantic is not looking bad for this time of year, but I doubt Mexico needed any more rain...


Morning! Can't remember the last time I had coffee.
Link

Ike I think I see your avatar in this video, anyways GFS shows another long range threat with the ECMWF.
I am amazed at how much dry air and SAL is around the area. comming from 2 different areas the GOMEX getting dry air from the Conus and the atlantic getting it from the sahara, but the ammount of dry air is enormous I think that will calm things down alot. Anyway temperatures here have been cooler and dryer than normal again another year with an early fall I guess.
Quoting Cotillion:


Morning! Can't remember the last time I had coffee.


Sorry, Cotillion - I'd put tea out, but mine is always too strong for most to drink - kind of like my "Navy" coffee, LOL.
Link

Here is the dry air I am talking about. This is a great Caribbean site with cameras.

Hope you guys find it interesting.
CaneHunter031472 there is barely any SAL but there is a good amount of dry air the only place that are not dry are the caribbean and the E Atlantic
1540. P451
That is one very impressive radar, Pat. Looks like a Hurricane over land.


Hermine Floater Page with longer loops.

Quoting CoopsWife:


Sorry, Cotillion - I'd put tea out, but mine is always too strong for most to drink - kind of like my "Navy" coffee, LOL.


It's fine, coffee's good to me! You guys only seem to drink sweet tea or iced tea, I think? (Cornish - don't have sugar in my tea. Iced tea has grown on me, though.)

1542. Patrap
Itsa cool Image and I for one am glad itsa inland instead of in the GOM Tepid SST's..

Home Brew wins over dem global Model things again.

Everyone looks East and as per usual, the GOM Spits one out under their noses..


LOL
1543. WxLogic
Good Morning...
1544. mbjjm
Herminine still looking impressive on radar 12 hours after landfall, they may have to reclassify it as a hurricne when it maade landfall.
1545. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Link

Ike I think I see your avatar in this video, anyways GFS shows another long range threat with the ECMWF.


Nothing wrong with a little early morning Zep.

You want some whiskey in your water....sugar in your tea? What's all these crazy questions there askin' me? Link
...............................................

QPF for the next 5 days....no rain still here....

Quoting Cotillion:


It's fine, coffee's good to me! You guys only seem to drink sweet tea or iced tea, I think? (Cornish - don't have sugar in my tea. Iced tea has grown on me, though.)



Sweet iced tea is pretty much a Southern thing - most of the rest of the country serves it without sugar - or sugar on the side. As for hot tea - well, mostly teabags, I'm afraid...

Weather wise, it's gorgeous here in the Tidewater of VA - 63 when I woke at 0545, light ground mist in the field. Should hit the low 80s today.
1547. Patrap
Corpus Christi, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, Ike, Cotillion, et al.

Running late today - first day of EllieRose's senior year, LOL. Coffee, juice and french toast on the sideboard.

Atlantic is not looking bad for this time of year, but I doubt Mexico needed any more rain...


My senior started school a month ago! But the south starts earlier and gets out earlier. Now it's time to run out the door, for them to catch the bus and me to my school, classroom of spec ed kindergartners waiting for me. Have a great day everyone!
Ike - no rain on that image for us, either. The whopping .4 we got from Earl didn't even make a dent in the dust in my yard...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
CaneHunter031472 there is barely any SAL but there is a good amount of dry air the only place that are not dry are the caribbean and the E Atlantic


Sorry I ussually confuse SAL from dry air. Nevertheless there is an enormous ammount of dry air, and like you noted the only areas I see with moisture is the caribean sea. I wonder if this will help Gaston or whatever is left of it to regenerate. I guess it will all depend on how south it goes, since interaction with PuertoRico and Hispaniola would dissipate the little convection that is left.
lol KingDuji not dead
1552. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning! Can't remember the last time I had coffee.

or I a good Teapot w/ Earl GREY.....
never, ever Sugar in my Tea......even iced.
Coops - Been Up *giggle* --just did the Pooch walk first - she loves being first at the telephone poles & mail box posts LOL
So Gaston - Is he or isn't HE, gone, gone, gone - no fuel or or remnants left? and the next one is named ..Igor???? Wonder what Baby Name Book these guys were looking at????
Could it be this Friday, the dreaded Sept. 10, there will not be a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin?
1555. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
Looks as if Corpus to Kingsville and up to Victoria is getting the worst of it at the moment

Flash flooding in Aransas and Refugio Counties. We have another band moving over just at the time I leave for work--may have to call the boss and tell him I'll be a little late since my car sits low!
Peak is hear! Its all down hill from here......
1559. surfmom
Quoting cctxshirl:

Flash flooding in Aransas and Refugio Counties. We have another band moving over just at the time I leave for work--may have to call the boss and tell him I'll be a little late since my car sits low!

I would -- takes the pressure off, better not to have to fret about being late - and maybe he'll be kind let you stay home....
Quoting cctxshirl:

Flash flooding in Aransas and Refugio Counties. We have another band moving over just at the time I leave for work--may have to call the boss and tell him I'll be a little late since my car sits low!


Stay out of the 'dips' - Lord knows it doesn't take much to flood in that area...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Could it be this Friday, the dreaded Sept. 10, there will not be a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin?
Yes, thanks to dry air. Which is covering most of the tropical atlantic.
Quoting surfmom:

I would -- takes the pressure off, better not to have to fret about being late - and maybe he'll be kind let you stay home....

boss will probably be surfing if it's not like a washing machine out there.
1563. surfmom
1554 - Ahhhh Cot -- your wit had ME on the floor this AM
1564. surfmom
Quoting cctxshirl:

boss will probably be surfing if it's not like a washing machine out there.

*smile* Ohhh, I know his type -- he may wait for it to lay down today and be out tomorrow....tell him you'll meet him at the beach with a camera -- that might get you a day off and a trip to the beach... seriously though be careful -- car-float is not good, that's what Kayaks are for
1565. P451
Quoting Patrap:
Itsa cool Image and I for one am glad itsa inland instead of in the GOM Tepid SST's..

Home Brew wins over dem global Model things again.

Everyone looks East and as per usual, the GOM Spits one out under their noses..


LOL


I hear ya... Hermine wanted to RI no doubt about it. We can count our blessings the guy was close to land.

Had he been out in the Gulf... ohhh boy.

It just illustrates and reminds us that this could be the season of "It only takes one." Now, I hate cliches, but, it holds true, and I really hope we don't see it.

Yet, I just have a feeling we will. Talking a Mitch type storm (not landfall, but, intensity). And if we get that in October it is coming into the Gulf.

There is just TOO much fuel out there. Something is going to pop.

And I hope nobody is in it's path.

Great point pat.Good morning Ike.I see the hyper seasoners are still at it lol.Well as i have said many times" iam a present caster not a wish or downcaster.Ike i thik hat this season biggest bust and thank God for it.We have seen little affect on the conus.Hermine will go down as the worst for the conus so far.we have had 8 named storms, with 3 of them being very questionable. the bermuda high is weak and even the gulf outside of the sw side has been quiet.The comment of wait to a storm gets in the carrib? well if you look at the past few years the only organized system to be named before it got into the carrib and affected the US conus was Ivan. Yes others dveloped and hit the islands and ca.But as we all know the majority of the people on here are just woorried about conus threats maybe they should look at the facts.Past history is a good tool that should not be ignored.So when the experts summarize this season if it continues this way will have a lot of factors to examine.Maybe they will remember this year and not spew out the mojo chart and models are gospel.I expect if the season has some bad storms affecting the conus it will be from the nw carrib and gulf is where to look.It looks like a close to home threat for the chances of cv systems hitting the conus are growing slimmer by the day.So before certain indivuals come on here and say this post makes them mad because i do not have a clue about tropical meterology: well maybe thats true but it also does not take a expert to read a model or chart and regurgitate everything it says.Like I said this is a present cast could still change but sometimes what the eye sees is better than what the unknown feature holds.Thanks have a blessed day.
1568. DDR
Morning all
Going to be a another wet day here,day 1 of 4 days of possible widespred rain/T-storms

Metoffice
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Fair except for some afternoon showers and
isolated afternoon thundershowers. Expect some
showers overnight.
1569. K8eCane
Im surprised Hermine only made it to TS status, what with being in the Gulf and all...and thank goodness it was nowhere near the oil spill...GOM is a BIG place LOL
Quoting jurakantaino:
Yes, thanks to dry air. Which is covering most of the tropical atlantic.


Ummmm...what? I see a lot more yellows and browns and reds than I do shades of blue. It's dry in the A/B high, of course, but that aridity defines it.

I see we're back this morning to downcasting the season. We've seen the birth of five named storms in a 14-day span, we had a landfalling high-end tropical storm just nine hours ago, our ACE is well over half of normal, and there's a very vigorous wave rolling off of Africa this morning with more behind it. Throw in what's left of Gaston, which still has a chance...and only the most foolish would say nothing's going on in the tropics.

1571. pottery
Quoting mcluvincane:
Peak is hear! Its all down hill from here......

Good Morning...

Nah! You still have to climb, for 3 days....
1572. IKE
...HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS...SPREADING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS NORTHWARD...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 7
Location: 27.7°N 98.2°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
1573. DDR
Quoting cctxshirl:

boss will probably be surfing if it's not like a washing machine out there.
stay safe out there in Tx
Gaston is done. Stick a fork in him. Radar shows there is no COC. Just an open wave that the GFS predicted days ago.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummmm...what? I see a lot more yellows and browns and reds than I do shades of blue. It's dry in the A/B high, of course, but that aridity defines it.

I see we're back this morning to downcasting the season. We've seen the birth of five named storms in a 14-day span, we had a landfalling high-end tropical storm just nine hours ago, our ACE is well over half of normal, and there's a very vigorous wave rolling off of Africa this morning with more behind it. Throw in what's left of Gaston, which still has a chance...and only the most foolish would say nothing's going on in the tropics.



The models show nothing through November 30th...
1578. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Morning all
Going to be a another wet day here,day 1 of 4 days of possible widespred rain/T-storms

Metoffice
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Southern Windwards
Fair except for some afternoon showers and
isolated afternoon thundershowers. Expect some
showers overnight.

Hi!
Going to be more 'hot' than 'wet' I think.
Rains should be here late tonight?
1579. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Hi!
Going to be more 'hot' than 'wet' I think.
Rains should be here late tonight?

Hey man,morning
If you buy the gfs its going to be wet,yea starting this afternoon then more widespred overnight(accordingi to the met.office),definately alot of moisture coming in.
1580. IKE
Quoting robert88:
Gaston is done. Stick a fork in him. Radar shows there is no COC. Just an open wave that the GFS predicted days ago.


True and I remember a few asking...why are the models(GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NOGAPS), killing Gaston off?
Gaston is starting to interact with the islands, so of course NOW it will start to organize...




Makes perfect sense.

I suppose if it turns NW, it will become a TD over land on PR, and a hurricane over land on DR...

Nothing makes sense with Gaston...
Was wondering about potential Igor. Models continue to show agreement on development. They take this wave west, then show a recurve. Might be something to watch again for the east coast. Time will tell.
1583. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Hey man,morning
If you buy the gfs its going to be wet,yea starting this afternoon then more widespred overnight,definately alot of moisture coming in.

True!
Quoting futuremet:


The models show nothing through November 30th...


well, that don't seem right.....but, then considering we are days away from peak, there isn't much to talk about.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


well, that don't seem right.....but, then considering we are days away from peak, there isn't much to talk about.


It was not meant to be taken seriously...
Quoting futuremet:


It was meant to be taken seriously...


I think you meant wasn't? :)
Who's downcasting?
1588. pottery
Quoting TexasHurricane:


well, that don't seem right.....but, then considering we are days away from peak, there isn't much to talk about.

Strange contradiction, that.
What a weird season this has been....
Quoting futuremet:


The models show nothing through November 30th...


You forgot to add 2011. :)
Gaston is pretty much gone folks!

Next on the list is Igor.
if any thing guys gaston may stay weak for the next couple of days but after that it will explode likt a nuke bomb anyway I have to run now see ya all later around 4
1592. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Strange contradiction, that.
What a weird season this has been....

Yea there should be more AOI out there
I'm out ttyl
This is truly an enormous tropical wave.

1594. pottery
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
if any thing guys gaston may stay weak for the next couple of days but after that it will explode likt a nuke bomb anyway I have to run now see ya all later around 4

Way to GO!
It's always good to see a good balance of views on the blog.
1590:

I don't know...

His radar and satellite presentation is actually improved since I went to bed last night.
All at 10%

Corpus Christi here (11 miles from GOM, 1.5 from bay) at the house we have had 3 inches and just got a wind gust of 46. Thankfully, nothing more than what would we could typically see on a normal day! I hope all our friends down south have fared just as well!
check back in later...
Quoting pottery:

Way to GO!
It's always good to see a good balance of views on the blog.


LMAO...Stick a fork in him and a nuke bomb. Pretty much covers all the bases.
1600. IKE
I think I see the caboose on the Cape Verde train...over central Africa....

TropicalStormHermine passes west of CorpusChristi, heading toward SanAntonio

06Sep . 12pmGMT - - 22.4n95.3w - - 45mph - - - 995mb - - NHC.Adv.#2A
06Sep . 03pmGMT - - 23.4n95.8w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #3
06Sep . 06pmGMT - - 24.1n96.5w - - 60mph - - - 995mb - - #3A
06Sep . 09pmGMT - - 24.5n97.0w - - 60mph - - - 992mb - - #4
07Sep . 12amGMT - - 24.8n97.1w - - 65mph - - - 991mb - - #4A
1:30amGMT landfall on 25.3n97.4w @ 65mph & 991mb (not used on the plot chart)
07Sep . 03amGMT - - 25.5n97.5w - - 60mph - - - 991mb - - #5
07Sep . 06amGMT - - 26.1n97.7w - - 60mph - - - 991mb - - #5A
07Sep . 09amGMT - - 27.0n98.0w - - 50mph - - - 993mb - - #6
07Sep . 12pmGMT - - 27.7n98.2w - - 45mph - - - 995mb - - #6A

Copy and paste 22.4n95.3w, 23.4n95.8w, 24.1n96.5w, 24.5n97.0w, 24.8n97.1w-25.5n97.5w, 25.5n97.5w-26.1n97.7w, 26.1n97.7w-27.0n98.0w, 27.0n98.0w-27.7n98.2w, crp, mam, sat into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
I just want to go on record again as stating that those calling this season a bust are, not to put too fine a point on it, ignorant. Everyone likes to point at 2005 as an amazing year, but did you guys know that this year's Hurricane Earl would rank as the number three most powerful storm of the year ACE-wise had it happened in 2005? Did you know that Hurricane Danielle would rank as number four? Were you aware that this year's almost-forgotten Hurricane Alex was more powerful than a full 17 of 2005's 28 named storms? Did you know that even this year's Colin was stronger than nine of 2005's storms, or that our one-day-old TS Hermine is already more energetic than six of them were?

As I posted just a short while ago: We've seen the birth of five named storms in just the last 14-days, we had a landfalling high-end tropical storm only nine hours ago, our ACE is well over half of long-term normal, and there's a very vigorous wave rolling off of Africa this morning with more behind it. Throw in what's left of Gaston, which still has a chance (albeit ever-so-slight)...so why are we back to the silly bustcasting?

Finally, two reminders: 1) the season is not halfway over climatologically-speaking...and this fall promises to be very much backloaded; 2) there's still much more to come from Africa, but even were the CV train to stop right this minute, that doesn't mean we'd be safe or that the season would be over. Remember that Katrina, Wilma, Mitch, the 1935 Labor Day Storm, and Camille--among many others--were homegrown.

It's September 7th, guys.
1603. smuldy
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Could it be this Friday, the dreaded Sept. 10, there will not be a named tropical system in the Atlantic basin?
to keep the ridiculous Igor=doom trend because of some Mary Shelley book trend going: the next day will spell trouble somewhere in the CONUS from a flareup far worse than Hermine; in seriousness the energy from Gaston could flare up if it holds together and hits the Caribbean
Gaston appears to have drifted SW:

It's hard to tell, but as of 1145, he is either at

16.7N 62.5W

or

16.2N 62.8W


right now I'm going with 16.7N 62.5W


and yes, you actually can see the CoC on antilles radar as a tiny ring of showers...
1605. smuldy
Quoting RecordSeason:
Gaston appears to have drifted SW:

It's hard to tell, but as of 1145, he is either at

16.7N 62.5W

or

16.2N 62.8W


right now I'm going with 16.7N 62.5W
exGaston has no CoC yet, as of now, he is nowhere, and the two degrees change in where his energy sits now will have far less to do with where it ends up than the steering if it reforms in a day or two


ok edit to ur edit lol
the CoC is not settled it will redefine/move IF gaston does redevelop in 48 hours
Quoting RecordSeason:
Gaston appears to have drifted SW:

It's hard to tell, but as of 1145, he is either at

16.7N 62.5W

or

16.2N 62.8W


right now I'm going with 16.7N 62.5W
Looks closer to 16.N and lots of moisture on the eastern side but nothing much on the western side. I guess there is still a slim chance he regenerates.
AL, 09, 2010090712, , BEST, 0, 168N, 624W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 110, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

Lowest he's ever been.
Quoting smuldy:
exGaston has no CoC yet, as of now, he is nowhere, and the two degrees change in where his energy sits now will have far less to do with where it ends up than the steering if it reforms in a day or two


Don't know whether it is closed or not but looks like the coc is just north of 16 and west of 62. IDK maybe he is still making a slight effort.
1609. IKE
Neopolitan...what matters to most on here is impacts...major impacts. Some are looking for that....some are hoping for that...most of us hope it doesn't happen...and so far in 2010...major impacts of the Atlantic season........

(1)Alex.

And also...it didn't hit the USA(lower 48), as a major impact. I'm talking Ike kind...or Katrina...or Hugo....or Camille....Ivan....Georges...Wilma.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I just want to go on record again as stating that those calling this season a bust are, not to put too fine a point on it, ignorant. Everyone likes to point at 2005 as an amazing year, but did you guys know that this year's Hurricane Earl would rank as the number three most powerful storm of the year ACE-wise had it happened in 2005? Did you know that Hurricane Danielle would rank as number four? Were you aware that this year's almost-forgotten Hurricane Alex was more powerful than a full 17 of 2005's 28 named storms? Did you know that even this year's Colin was stronger than nine of 2005's storms, or that our one-day-old TS Hermine is already more energetic than six of them were?

As I posted just a short while ago: We've seen the birth of five named storms in just the last 14-days, we had a landfalling high-end tropical storm only nine hours ago, our ACE is well over half of long-term normal, and there's a very vigorous wave rolling off of Africa this morning with more behind it. Throw in what's left of Gaston, which still has a chance (albeit ever-so-slight)...so why are we back to the silly bustcasting?

Finally, two reminders: 1) the season is not halfway over climatologically-speaking...and this fall promises to be very much backloaded; 2) there's still much more to come from Africa, but even were the CV train to stop right this minute, that doesn't mean we'd be safe or that the season would be over. Remember that Katrina, Wilma, Mitch, the 1935 Labor Day Storm, and Camille--among many others--were homegrown.

It's September 7th, guys.


Wow!

I was not aware of most of this. I haven't commented on the pace of the season, but this is certainly an eye opener.

Awesome job!
1611. FLdewey
The remnants of Gaston will devastate anyone foolish enough to enter it in a Kayak... made of cardboard.

Ugggg it's Monday for us office monkeys... but at least it's a 4 day week. New Apple TVs are just weeks away. Good times.
1612. smuldy
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Don't know whether it is closed or not but looks like the coc is just north of 16 and west of 62. IDK maybe he is still making a slight effort.
i really dont think it is closed and so i would fully expect it to jog if it does close; where who knows, but there will be no pinpoint track until it does for a closed center, if it does; i personally think it has no chance for at least 36 hours until it's energy settles to the north or south of Cuba, and if it settles on Cuba it dies; but I have been wrong before plenty
Quoting IKE:
Neopolitan...what matters to most on here is impacts...major impacts. Some are looking for that....some are hoping for that...most of us hope it doesn't happen...and so far in 2010...major impacts of the Atlantic season........

(1)Alex.

And also...it didn't hit the USA(lower 48), as a major impact. I'm talking Ike kind...or Katrina...or Hugo....or Camille....Ivan....Georges...Wilma.


That is sadly true. I hear the locals here talk about how the NHC hypes seasons and how we haven't had any hit in years here. They seem to not count all those storms that hit other countries or go out to sea.
1615. smuldy
Quoting FLdewey:
The remnants of Gaston will devastate anyone foolish enough to enter it in a Kayak... made of cardboard.

Ugggg it's Monday for use office monkeys... but at least it's a 4 day week. New Apple TVs are just weeks away. Good times.
entirely joking so please don't flag, but im not sure what is worse the typo use office monkeys, as though the world were a my cousin vinny remake :P or the fact that you praised an apple product, actually joking aside the latter, if apple made it first gen will be bad, always is, and no one needs some lame tv tuner for a monitor when better actual tv's are cheaper; and to stay topical it sure is sunny here in the tropics today
Guys, ladies and Others:

For weather conditions in Puerto Rico.


Link

1617. smuldy
Quoting Kristina40:


That is sadly true. I hear the locals here talk about how the NHC hypes seasons and how we haven't had any hit in years here. They seem to not count all those storms that hit other countries or go out to sea.
and guys it is CONUS impacts, so, no Alex doesn't count in many minds, after all i'm pretty sure that fence we are debating is to try and keep hurricanes out
ACE doesn't say that much about activity per se.

It measures intensity and time. If you wish to use the ACE comparisons as a means of determining activity, you run the risk of making seasons like 2007 a 'bust'. It wasn't.

It also says nothing for the human impact. In fact, it can even be the opposite. 1950 was a massive ACE year, taking into account that there was no satellite and radar was rare, it probably exceeded 2005 in ACE. Despite the intensity of those storms, only 20 lives were lost and the damage was dwarfed by previous and subsequent seasons.

good morning.
Surprised NHC has ex-Gaston at 10% but what do I know...
Incredible amount of rain getting dumped on TX this a.m.
That's quite a view Keeper (#1613).
Quoting Chicklit:
good morning.
Surprised NHC has ex-Gaston at 10% but what do I know...
Incredible amount of rain getting dumped on TX this a.m.
That's quite a view Keeper (#1613).


I figure they believe he will regenerate eventually, just not in 48 hours so they are leaving him with a small percentage chance so they don't drop him to zero and have to jump him back up again.
1621. Relix
Next wave has potential. Still not trusting the recurve, let's see how it goes =P
1622. FLdewey
Quoting smuldy:
entirely joking so please don't flag, but im not sure what is worse the typo use office monkeys, as though the world were a my cousin vinny remake :P or the fact that you praised an apple product, actually joking aside the latter, if apple made it first gen will be bad, always is, and no one needs some lame tv tuner for a monitor when better actual tv's are cheaper; and to stay topical it sure is sunny here in the tropics today

I don't flag people... so no worries.

I wish I could understand your Apple rant... but I've failed after 3 reads.

Apple TV isn't a TV... you know that right? It's not a TV tuner and it has no rabbit ears. For $99 I can stream all of the content from my media server, AND netflix, etc to my TVs. It connects your home TVs to your network. Google it... it's cool ;-)
Ahh...thanks for the explanation Kristina.
Wish I didn't have to work today but had best get it in gear. Have a good one every1.
Good morning.


Good work, Neo. Yup, lots of season left yet.

Vorticity is hanging, barely with Gaston. He's in ZERO shear. If he's gonna make a move, not sure conditions will ever be any more conducive.

1625. smuldy
Quoting Relix:
Next wave has potential. Still not trusting the recurve, let's see how it goes =P
globals will be wrong about that eventually, but haven't been yet, until these trofs stop coming i believe they will be there, that said despite model agreement, as with Danielle, I'm not even renting the idea storm #2 recurves before 40w, doesn't mean I dont think it will recurve, just thats a shade early
Can someone explain with a brief synopsis the developement of Hermione??? I have been watching the tropical waves and lows carefully and really didn't see this one coming. It's like God mixed up a cup of instant Hurricane. How do these storms form??
lord who thought to put Igor on the list of names. There should be a rule against naming hurricanes after characters in horror films. and i dont think there has ever been a hurricane season with my name for the J, janice. Wonder why some names are used over and over and some never? Saw a thing on tv that dr lyons named a hurricane after his daughter and it was a bad one and thge name was retired but cant remember which one. just musing aloud today. its hard to be at work today. i feel like I am "Milton" in the movie Office Space.
As bad of shape as Ex-Gaston is in, there are several things going for him now that he did not have in the past few days.


1) There is a moisture plume on Rainbow that is actually moving south from his north and converging with him. For some reason this is not evident on WV imagery, but in the past he's never had any such luck at all. This plume is still about 140 miles to the NNE of the best guess for a center, so it will still be a few hours...however, at long last, this should assist in some convection forming in the NE quadrant over the next several hours...which Ex-Gaston hasn't had since the last time he was a TS.

2) Moisture plumes from the ITCZ show some evidence of intruding into the dry air mass back near 55W, both on rainbow and WV. This isn't a huge development, but it will probably prevent the dry air from building in behind Gaston as quickly as in the past. Additional moisture plumes at 61W, 64W, and 66W can be seen.

3) Logic demands that the "cool dry air" CAN'T keep building in that much indefinitely over a super-heated ocean. It's going to hit it's limit eventually.
Keeper, that image looks like it's straight from an early 90s' video game.

It's cool.
Someone mentioned that this season has been a "bust"? To me a hurricane season that is a "bust" is the best thing that can happen
I was just going to ask was anyone still keeping track of Gaspton nice job record season.
Hurricane Janice - 1958

The last tropical cyclone of the season formed on October 5 from a westward moving tropical wave, south of Cuba. It strengthened to a 50 mph (80 km/h) tropical storm before crossing the island, and remained intact, becoming a hurricane over the Bahamas on the 7th. A cold front pulled Janice northward, and the hurricane became extratropical on the 12th, after causing between $200,000-$300,000 in damage (1958 dollars) in the Bahamas and one death. An early report indicated 18 Haitians died when their raft capsized in the Bahamas, though that was later proven false. Heavy flooding occurred in Jamaica and Haiti as well.
Link
Quoting Cotillion:
ACE doesn't say that much about activity per se.

It measures intensity and time. If you wish to use the ACE comparisons as a means of determining activity, you run the risk of making seasons like 2007 a 'bust'. It wasn't.

It also says nothing for the human impact. In fact, it can even be the opposite. 1950 was a massive ACE year, taking into account that there was no satellite and radar was rare, it probably exceeded 2005 in ACE. Despite the intensity of those storms, only 20 lives were lost and the damage was dwarfed by previous and subsequent seasons.



It's interesting you should mention that. FEMA collected data that showed the same thing and in their efforts to keep loss of life down to a bare minimum in natural disasters, they correlated the rise in deaths over the last few decades and drew the conclusion that the main factor in the rising number of deaths was attributed to people developing and moving to and living in areas prone to damage from hurricanes and the after effects such as flooding. So if you live in harms way....
The flattening out of the TPW gyre associated with Gaston is moving at a fast clip and will make it difficult for Gaston to organize, imo, until somewhere southeast or just south of Jamaica - that is, if there's any circulation left by the time it reaches that area.

M I M I C imagery
1635. smuldy
Quoting FLdewey:

I don't flag people... so no worries.

I wish I could understand your Apple rant... but I've failed after 3 reads.

Apple TV isn't a TV... you know that right? It's not a TV tuner and it has no rabbit ears. For $99 I can stream all of the content from my media server, AND netflix, etc to my TVs. It connects your home TVs to your network. Google it... it's cool ;-)
i know it does what win7 has been doing, which is to say allows you, with additional purchase, to stream content to your TV if properly licensed; my rant is based off of owning an 07 1st gen macbook pro core duo and a 1st gen iphone 4; mbp had battery die, followed by keyboard, neither of which warranty covered at 16 months, despite recall for same overheating problem on previous gen macbook pro; iphone 4 had ghosting on screen, which samsung galaxy did not; so now on acer ferrari and samsung galaxy and both make me much happier than either apple related product; not to get into the longer debate of single device usage that apple initiated via itunes drm. and oh i see a cloud and we had great tstorms the last 2 days
Hermine is treating me with Heavy Rains here in Fort Worth this morning :)
1637. wxman69
Plenty of season left to be sure, and as has been mentioned many times, it will likely be active into/through October. The one plus is in another week or so, the Cape Verde season will be winding down. It will become increasingly unlikely anything developing that far east will ever get close to the states. The westerlies are beginning to edge further south already and are becoming more active. This will make recurvature increasingly likely. Then, after the 20th, these waves will tend to develop further west, which is when we need to be more concerned.
Quoting KanKunKid:


It's interesting you should mention that. FEMA collected data that showed the same thing and in their efforts to keep loss of life down to a bare minimum in natural disasters, they correlated the rise in deaths over the last few decades and drew the conclusion that the main factor in the rising number of deaths was attributed to people developing and moving to and living in areas prone to damage from hurricanes and the after effects such as flooding. So if you live in harms way....


Interesting.

It might be a bit of both, though. Hurricane awareness and 'technology' is much better than it ever was. You look at all of the storms in the Atlantic that have caused considerable death (I'm talking thousands here), most occurred decades, even centuries ago. Only Mitch has been recent. Fifi in the last 35 years. Most occurred way before, even Flora is near 50 years ago now.

However, that trade off of the 'big killer', might be that the smaller storms will take death more than they otherwise would due to that development and migration to hurricane-prone areas.

Just a thought.
Quoting StormW:


What was TD11-E in the EPAC had a piece of energy break away, and being close enough to Central America and MX, the energy made it to the BOC, and began to interact with a surface trof of low pressure. Given that the setup of the atmosphere allowed for lowering of pressures, we then had an upper level anticyclone develop over the area...that combined with very warm SST's, anf forced feedback from the center being close to MX, developed Hermine.
Good morning StormW. It looks like XGaston is developing his own anticyclone. Please correct me if I am wrong.
4" of rain here so far in S. TX. Gusting up to 33 mph or so but I'm about 80 miles to the NE of the center of the storm.
If you want to see a really amazing image of a tropical storm that did not fall apart as ingressed over land, select the Corpus Christi NEXRAD radar which shows an intact eyewall even after being ashore for several hours.

Thanks Hermione, we needed the rain up here in Fort Worth! My sprinkler controller is now set to off!!!!
1645. smuldy
Quoting KanKunKid:


I feel your pain.
hey i will gladly suffer tedious work if it ends up being lit ablaze and i get fractions of a cent on a billion transactions siphoned into my account lol
1646. tkeith
cant comment on posts...

2nd day with no cigarettes...

afraid I'll get banned...

@ Dewey, Apple rocks.. DUDE (see)

back to lurking...
1647:

Lol.

Hermine actually appears to have strengthened some over land...

the "eye" is amazing right now...
Not so fast, nay-sayers...

1651. FLdewey
Quoting smuldy:
i know it does what ...

OOOOooo I had no idea you were anti Mac... it's all now very clear. I'm an Apple developer, so that's a fight we should just pass on.

Have fun with *giggle* your PC *giggle*

man I go away and come back and expect that Hermine would have degraded some but it still has a closed eyewall...
1653. smuldy
Quoting StormW:


That only happens with hurricanes...as a hurricane becomes more intense, the outflow above the system, being sinking air, warms, and basically creates or reinforces an upper level ridge.
im sure you will get to it in your blog later, but I am curious on your take for the long term prospects of ex-gaston; do you think the energy has a realistic chance of becoming anything if it can stay south or north of cuba? and do you think land interaction has anything to do with its long term cyclogenesis chances at this point? I know it is in moderate sheer and surrounded by dry air, but what wins out? the moderate (10-20kts) shear forecast to its north after crossing DR or the warm SSTs moist air? assuming here given lower shear is has a better shot if it stays south of cuba, and assuming land interaction could indeed kill it
Gaston is still not dead.... its alive ...barely ...still ... again ...whatever.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I wasn't on here all weekend, so this is the first opportunity I've had to comment on Hermine.

With that being said, please pass the tobasco.

I really didn't expect anything to develope when I was looking in that area Friday. Live and learn!
1656. smuldy
Quoting FLdewey:

OOOOooo I had no idea you were anti Mac... it's all now very clear. I'm an Apple developer, so that's a fight we should just pass on.

Have fun with *giggle* your PC *giggle*

lol agreed and more than fair; and I have no problem with the software; its great; the hardware, that is another story lol
Quoting FLdewey:

OOOOooo I had no idea you were anti Mac... it's all now very clear. I'm an Apple developer, so that's a fight we should just pass on.

Have fun with *giggle* your PC *giggle*

Hello fellow Mac user. :P
Good morning all....hermine is definately a lesson learned in inattentativeness
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
I think the bigger blob will get an orange soon.
Hermine is holding up well over land. Was a little surprised to see that center. We're expected to get heavy rain/winds today & tomorrow Link
1662. surfmom
Quoting StormPro:
Good morning all....hermine is definately a lesson learned in inattentativeness

sometimes "Instinct" counts for a lot
Quoting FLdewey:

OOOOooo I had no idea you were anti Mac... it's all now very clear. I'm an Apple developer, so that's a fight we should just pass on.

Have fun with *giggle* your PC *giggle*



I have always considered that with Microsoft, you are paying for all the mistakes they made with their software. With Apple you are paying for the mistakes they didn't make.
Quoting AustinTXWeather:
Hermine is holding up well over land. Was a little surprised to see that center. We're expected to get heavy rain/winds today & tomorrow Link
Yeah, that's some eye for a TS.
I wouldn't say inattentiveness. I had it as an OAI. However, there was such a large area of convection and general low pressure that I misjudged it. I thought with the bulk being over mexico and the Pacific waters, that the pacific side would dominate and any developement would have been on that side of Mexico and not in the BOC...
1666. FLdewey
Quoting smuldy:
lol agreed and more than fair; and I have no problem with the software; its great; the hardware, that is another story lol

Fair enough. Every manufacturer has lemons... come back and try us one day. I'm not a true Mac bigot... I has me a PC or two. (Don't tell my co-workers) ;-)
There's a fine line between insticts and wishcasting!
1668. surfmom
Post 1613 - Keeper .... looks like plenty of more ingredients for the STEW Pot is being exported as I type
1669. IKE
Quoting BLee2333:
I wouldn't say inattentiveness. I had it as an OAI. However, there was such a large area of convection and general low pressure that I misjudged it. I thought with the bulk being over mexico and the Pacific waters, that the pacific side would dominate and any developement would have been on that side of Mexico and not in the BOC...


Oh I was refering to my inattentiveness...I wrote her off Friday evening...of course I was looking forward to wonderful weather for the long weekend here in South Louisiana
Gaston is still not dead.... its alive ...barely ...still ... again ...whatever.

Let go Orca! Let go...
Quoting BLee2333:
There's a fine line between insticts and wishcasting!


Yup! Fine as frog's hair.
New blog!!!
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Gaston is still not dead.... its alive ...barely ...still ... again ...whatever.

Let go Orca! Let go...


ROFLMAO, I am willing to... its the darn models that keep it alive. One set says... nada... others say... TS... and three respected models including the SHIP say anywhere from a CAT 2- 4
1675. MahFL
Looks like Hermine's eye is getting smaller on the radar.
1676. hulakai
Several models develope Ex-G into a hurricane. Climatologicly based on TDs in the area(if my coordinates are correct 63W and 17N)there is a 40% chance of a conus hit between Southern Texas and East Central Florida. The other 60% were fish. Based on current model tracks, folks in that area might want to pay attention.
LOL!! Me too! First long weekend since before the Holidays and the weather was looking pretty darn good for SE AL/NW FL! Enjoyed it! ;)
Quoting StormW:


That only happens with hurricanes...as a hurricane becomes more intense, the outflow above the system, being sinking air, warms, and basically creates or reinforces an upper level ridge.


That does not seem the case. If the conditions are right, all tropical cyclones can develop upper level anticyclones. Tropical Storm Hermine (and many others) developed its own upper level anticyclone. When a tropical cyclone has strong surface convergence with virtually no wind shear above it, it will positively create its own upper level ridge. Sometimes mere intense convection activity at the surface can generate an upper level anticyclone.

A tropical cyclone's upper level ridge can also be enhanced by diffluent flow aloft from the eastern side of an upper level low. The curving diffluent air increases winds at the periphery of the upper level high. If a tropical cyclone is under too much shear, the upper level high will be negligible or displaced from the center. Overall, upper level anticyclogenesis depend on the environment.

Quoting Cotillion:
ACE doesn't say that much about activity per se.

It measures intensity and time. If you wish to use the ACE comparisons as a means of determining activity, you run the risk of making seasons like 2007 a 'bust'. It wasn't.

It also says nothing for the human impact. In fact, it can even be the opposite. 1950 was a massive ACE year, taking into account that there was no satellite and radar was rare, it probably exceeded 2005 in ACE. Despite the intensity of those storms, only 20 lives were lost and the damage was dwarfed by previous and subsequent seasons.



ACE is simply the best metric yet devised for measuring the accumulated energy spent over he course of a season, and as such it is very effective at detailing overall activity. I suppose that, for some, body counts and dollar amounts are a more effective measure, but from a meteorological point of view, ACE works quite well. To put it another way, while the devastating impact of a short-lived and powerful storm like Camille means more to the general population--that is, normal folks, journalists, insurance adjusters, and the like--its relatively low ACE says nothing much about the overall power of a particular season.

(Yes, ACE-wise, 2007 was low-normal...but half its total ACE came from one storm--Dean. This year's short-lived Alex was more energetic than 12 of that year's 14 mostly weak systems. When making year-to-year comparisons on which a season's "bustedness" is based, ACE works.)
Good Morning Everyone,
Checking in from the Beautiful Island of Key West....
Had a wild Storm last night but was kinda cool looking over the water with the light show....

I see we had Hermine last night and explains why we had winds moving to the west....

well now we need to see what Ex-Gaston does and the new wave moving into the Atlantic....

Taco :o)

IKE:

Take a look

http://www.comoestaeso.com/forums/content.php?23-Live-Ocean-Park-Camera

Cloudly with 8KT winds, good for board padling

Quoting Neapolitan:


ACE is simply the best metric yet devised for measuring the accumulated energy spent over he course of a season, and as such it is very effective at detailing overall activity. I suppose that, for some, body counts and dollar amounts are a more effective measure, but from a meteorological point of view, ACE works quite well. To put it another way, while the devastating impact of a short-lived and powerful storm like Camille means more to the general population--that is, normal folks, journalists, insurance adjusters, and the like--its relatively low ACE says nothing much about the overall power of a particular season.

(Yes, ACE-wise, 2007 was low-normal...but half its total ACE came from one storm--Dean. This year's short-lived Alex was more energetic than 12 of that year's 14 mostly weak systems. When making year-to-year comparisons on which a season's "bustedness" is based, ACE works.)


I do like ACE personally, so not disputing its worth. Its significance as an indicator of activity really does depend on what you define as activity. ACE, by its very nature, will often put more into the 'long trackers' than numbers. In terms of activity being what the CSU would call 'hurricane days', then yes, it is a fine determinant.

However, if activity is defined by the quantity of storms (which for most it is), it is far less clear cut. There are numerous examples of seasons which have fewer numbers in all three categories - Storm, Hurricane, Major - yet have higher ACE due to that season's propensity to/reliance on an active Cape Verde season.
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1685. EtexJC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hermine is treating me with Heavy Rains here in Fort Worth this morning :)


That explains why i slept in until 10 this morning, lack of sun to wake me up, LOL (I'm in NRH)
hey guys I just came back and what did I tell ya