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Intense New England Hurricanes Much More Numerous 340 to 1800 Years Ago

By: Jeff Masters 6:43 PM GMT on February 17, 2015

Numerous Category 3 and 4 hurricanes frequently pounded New England during the first millennium, from the peak of the Roman Empire into the height of the Middle Ages, said a study accepted for publication this month in the open-access journal Earth’s Future, Climate Forcing of Unprecedented Intense-Hurricane Activity in the Last 2,000 Years. These prehistoric hurricanes were stronger than any hurricane documented to hit the region since the mid-1800s, and would be catastrophic if they hit the region today, according to Jeff Donnelly, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Massachusetts and lead author of the new paper. In a press release, Donnelly said, “We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”


Figure 1. The storm surge from Category 2 Hurricane Carol in 1954 batters New England's Edgewood Yacht Club near Providence, Rhode Island. Image credit: NOAA Photo Library.

The paper is the latest contribution to the field of paleotempestology--the study of past tropical cyclone activity by means sediment deposits, cave speleothems, tree rings, coral deposits, as well as historical documentary records. In this case, the researchers took sediment cores from Salt Pond near Falmouth on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The pond is separated from the ocean by a 1.3- to 1.8-meter (4.3- to 5.9-foot) high sand barrier. Over hundreds of years, storm surges from Category 2 and stronger hurricanes have deposited sediment over the barrier and into the pond. The scientists were able to calibrate the timing of the intense hurricane strikes by dating the layers from Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991, the 1675 (September 7) New England hurricane, and the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, which passed across southeastern New England and caused widespread damage consistent with a category 3 hurricane.


Figure 2. Scientists collect a sediment core from Salt Pond in Falmouth, Massachusetts, to study hurricane overwash deposits placed there by storm surges from intense hurricanes. The aluminum tube was vibrated into the muddy sediment at the bottom of the pond and then extracted with a hoist. Image Credit: WHOI

The prehistoric sediments showed that there were two periods of elevated intense hurricane activity on Cape Cod--from 150 to 1150, and from 1400 to 1675. Previous paleotempestology studies also found evidence of high hurricane activity during 150 - 1150 A.D. from the Caribbean to the Gulf Coast. Both time periods had unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa. Warm ocean temperatures in this region have been linked to increased intense hurricane activity by a number of recent research papers. In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels, and these waters are expected to warm further over the next century as the climate heats up, suggesting that intense hurricane activity in New England may return to the levels of 340 to 1800 years ago. However, other factors besides warming SSTs will also shape what happens in the North Atlantic. For example, the pattern of ocean warming could bring more El Niño-style wind shear to the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity. Still, New England would be wise to take heed of Donnelly's advice that we may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc..Hard to imagine a year worse than 2005.
Still raining in NE FL.


Lots of moisture for today's showers and thunderstorms to work with.
No one really cares about a bad hurricane every 10 years, they just rebuild.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I don't like this quote from Mr. Donnelly:

"'We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.'"

The effects of AGW on tropical cyclone activity are unclear at best right now. Even if the number of intense cyclones increases, that does not guarantee that the cyclones will steered toward the Northeast United States. For that reason, I'm a little weary of the phrase "what we should expect..."
Quoting 3. hydrus:




Ya, Ya, I see it. It's gonna get cold again. Thats why i is leaving for Arizona for a couple + weeks next week.
Wow, doc: "paleotempestology", "speleothem" - new stuff for me: I will try to keep those words in mind in order to smugly throw them around at next opportunity, lol. - Very interesting findings, and thank you for telling us.

Thanks Dr. Masters....
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Lots of moisture for today's showers and thunderstorms to work with.
Looks almost identical to what went through here about 0400. A thin line of showers with some pretty gusty winds. I had a 0.50" per hour rain rate for a half hour and then it was gone. No thunderstorms then and the lightning detector is showing nothing down there now. It looks more exciting on radar than it really is. I don't know what the mechanism is for this skinny little line but it's held together for about nine hours now. I assume it must be some frontal thing.
Quoting 10. sar2401:

Looks almost identical to what went through here about 0400. A thin line of showers with some pretty gusty winds. I had a 0.50" per hour rain rate for a half hour and then it was gone. No thunderstorms then and the lightning detector is showing nothing down there now. It looks more exciting on radar than it really is. I don't know what the mechanism is for this skinny little line but it's held together for about nine hours now. I assume it must be some frontal thing.


How much rain did you get?
thanx doc for the explanation of how they performed the study.....rather than just the conclusion of the study......
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.
Of course, such storms will occur atop several extra inches--or feet, or possibly even meters--of sea level, so that should be fun.

The Grand Experiment continues...
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:

Of course, such storms will occur atop several extra inches--or feet, or possibly even meters--of sea level, so that should be fun.

The Grand Experiment continues...


Or half an inch, no one knows for sure.
The effects of AGW on tropical cyclone activity are unclear at best right now. Even if the number of intense cyclones increases, that does not guarantee that the cyclones will steered toward the Northeast United States. For that reason, I'm a little weary of the phrase "what we should expect..."


i'm not sure they are stating "more" hurricanes....but a quick check shows that in the 20th century the new england area was hit with about 30 tropical systems.....so basically one every three years...with warmer waters due to agw....to me anyways...it seems logical they could be stronger
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

I don't like this quote from Mr. Donnelly:

"'We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.'"

The effects of AGW on tropical cyclone activity are unclear at best right now. Even if the number of intense cyclones increases, that does not guarantee that the cyclones will steered toward the Northeast United States. For that reason, I'm a little weary of the phrase "what we should expect..."
I'd like to see some more studies done in the tidal areas from Virginia and down through the Carolinas. I saw nothing in that study that would propose an answer to why larger hurricanes would have only hit the NE coast. Given the pattern we've seen in the past 200 years, there still should have been a much larger number of Cat 3+ hitting further south. As I've said before, this was a single study, and needs some verification studies before it should be accepted as fact.
One flaw in this study is that the study assumes the 2-meter high sand barrier was present during the entire time. Major hurricanes have destroyed entire islands (especially barrier islands) - what is to say that over a long period of time, that 2-meter high sand barrier was turned into more of a 0.5 meter high barrier? Or completely eroded?

NOTE: I'm not disputing the findings, because with climate change and how the gulf stream has been consistently warmer off the NE coast the past decade, stronger and more frequent majors would not surprise me in the slightest.
Quoting 15. ricderr:

The effects of AGW on tropical cyclone activity are unclear at best right now. Even if the number of intense cyclones increases, that does not guarantee that the cyclones will steered toward the Northeast United States. For that reason, I'm a little weary of the phrase "what we should expect..."


i'm not sure they are stating "more" hurricanes....but a quick check shows that in the 20th century the new england area was hit with about 30 tropical systems.....so basically one every three years...with warmer waters due to agw....to me anyways...it seems logical they could be stronger

I agree with the original post, the current hurricane archive isn't consistent enough to get a good sense of climatology and the atmosphere is never as simple as x -> y; like how a warming climate creates more snowstorms despite how counter intuitive it sounds.
Quoting MahFL:
No one really cares about a bad hurricane every 10 years, they just rebuild.
That's true. No one really cares--except maybe the families of those who die, or those who are injured, or those whose lives are completely upturned and disrupted, or people who buy property insurance, or those who rely on goods and services from companies that are put out of business, or government officials charged with rebuilding and/or maintaining decimated infrastructure, or people who live in nations with a lowered GDP because of such storms, or...

Oy, vey... ;-)
Quoting MahFL:


Or half an inch, no one knows for sure.
Well, scientists have a pretty good idea--and it'll be a whole lot more than "half an inch":

Quoting 15. ricderr:

The effects of AGW on tropical cyclone activity are unclear at best right now. Even if the number of intense cyclones increases, that does not guarantee that the cyclones will steered toward the Northeast United States. For that reason, I'm a little weary of the phrase "what we should expect..."


i'm not sure they are stating "more" hurricanes....but a quick check shows that in the 20th century the new england area was hit with about 30 tropical systems.....so basically one every three years...with warmer waters due to agw....to me anyways...it seems logical they could be stronger

I read the full paper this past weekend. How they differentiated the beds in the pond was interesting. Also they looked at lots of storms of note this past century and discussed how/why they were ruled out as 'indicator' beds in the pond. They looked for similar markers/beds as were found to correspond with known, strong storms. So they solely looked at stronger pre-historic storms. What they found were a higher quantity of stronger storms in the periods indicated in the blog post.
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:

Of course, such storms will occur atop several extra inches--or feet, or possibly even meters--of sea level, so that should be fun.

The Grand Experiment continues...
Sea level rise will be a one of the biggest challenges the human race will deal with. The consequences will be increasing as time progresses.
important to know the truth about history...
Quoting sar2401:
I saw nothing in that study that would propose an answer to why larger hurricanes would have only hit the NE coast.
I'm not sure why you'd expect to see that, as that isn't at all what the study claims. In fgact, it repeatedly refers to "Western North America Atlantic". That is, the east-facing stretch of the continent from South Florida to Newfoundland. From the article's conclusion:

"Future anthropogenic warming will likely be focused in the northern hemisphere, and as a
result the ITCZ will occupy a more northerly position [Broecker and Putnam, 2013],
potentially leading to increased hurricane genesis in the MDR [Kossin and Vimont, 2007;
Merlis et al., 2013]. More cyclogenesis in the MDR will likely also significantly impact the
intensity of storms impacting the highly populated western North Atlantic margin, as these
long-lived storms tend to become more intense."
I'd like to see some more studies done in the tidal areas from Virginia and down through the Carolinas. I saw nothing in that study that would propose an answer to why larger hurricanes would have only hit the NE coast


i didn't see anywhere that they said it only hit there....i was under the impression....that they were just focused on the n/e area
I read the full paper this past weekend. How they differentiated the beds in the pond was interesting. Also they looked at lots of storms of note this past century and discussed how/why they were ruled out as 'indicator' beds in the pond. They looked for similar markers/beds as were found to correspond with known, strong storms. So they solely looked at stronger pre-historic storms. What they found were a higher quantity of stronger storms in the periods indicated in the blog post.


thanx...so not more storms...but stronger storms....again to me...that makes sense
Quoting 16. sar2401:

I'd like to see some more studies done in the tidal areas from Virginia and down through the Carolinas. I saw nothing in that study that would propose an answer to why larger hurricanes would have only hit the NE coast. Given the pattern we've seen in the past 200 years, there still should have been a much larger number of Cat 3+ hitting further south. As I've said before, this was a single study, and needs some verification studies before it should be accepted as fact.

sar, see Figure 1a in the study. The figure shows mapped locations of this study, as well as other, similar studies. I can't post from the PDF (maybe one of the techno wizards here can do it), but this is the caption:

"Figure 1. Location maps. (a) Correlation map of boreal summer SST and AMM. SSTs are
warmer during positive AMM. Triangles show locations of paleo-hurricane reconstructions
presented here (1- Salt Pond [this study] and Mattapoisett Marsh [Boldt et al., 2010]; 2 -
Outer Banks inlets [Mallinson et al., 2011]; 3 -Thatchpoint Blue Hole [van Hengstum et al.,
2013], 4 - Mullet Pond [Lane et al., 2011] and Spring Creek Pond [Brandon et al., 2013]; 5 -
Lighthouse Blue Hole [Denommee et al., 2014]; 6 - Laguna Playa Grande [Donnelly and
Woodruff, 2007])."

As indicated, there has been a similar study done in the Outer Banks inlets.

I do not think this report states that only the Northeast was hit.
Quoting 23. Neapolitan:

I'm not sure why you'd expect to see that, as that isn't at all what the study claims. In fgact, it repeatedly refers to "Western North America". That is, the east-facing stretch of the continent from South Florida to Newfoundland. ...

Well, now I'm a bit confused, I have to confess :-)
Quoting LAbonbon:

I read the full paper this past weekend. How they differentiated the beds in the pond was interesting. Also they looked at lots of storms of note this past century and discussed how/why they were ruled out as 'indicator' beds in the pond. They looked for similar markers/beds as were found to correspond with known, strong storms. So they solely looked at stronger pre-historic storms. What they found were a higher quantity of stronger storms in the periods indicated in the blog post.
I read it also. It falls over from the first indicator storm. From the study "...the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob)...". I don't know how they defined "severe" but Bob was not a cat 3 at landfall in Rhode Island and certainly was not a cat 3 when it moved over Salt Pond. How do you start with Bob and use that to extrapolate to the other storms as being cat 3's? In addition, the core samples came from one pond in Massachusetts. Again, from the study: "A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 CE, with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 CE." Now it includes the Bahamas? The whole East Coast? What? Based on what evidence?

Their own calculations for return rate ratio was based on the number of cat 2 plus hurricanes hitting New England based on the best track database over the past 162 years, not cat 3 plus. (Section 6.2, first paragraph). The occurrence of cat 3 plus events was, and is, so rare that there wouldn't have been enough of them to use for a reasonable base of calculation. Why then does Donnelly make the statement in the press release quoted above that the return rate of cat 3 plus hurricanes is going to increase when the study doesn't use that criteria?

I have lots of other questions about methodology and conclusions that don't make sense to me either. I saw nothing in the way they were able to resolve temporal distribution that would have excluded sedimentation deposition from a powerful Nor'easter rather than a tropical cyclone. I won't plow thorough them all here and have the blog want to kill me. At the very least, Donnelly, the lead researcher, is making statements for attribution that are clearly not supported by the study.
Quoting 5. MahFL:

No one really cares about a bad hurricane every 10 years, they just rebuild.


Probably get an argument about that in Tacloban ..........



Kam-biu Liu has done a lot of research in this area. Here is a presentation on the subject:

Link
Quoting LAbonbon:

sar, see Figure 1a in the study. The figure shows mapped locations of this study, as well as other, similar studies. I can't post from the PDF (maybe one of the techno wizards here can do it), but this is the caption:

"Figure 1. Location maps. (a) Correlation map of boreal summer SST and AMM. SSTs are
warmer during positive AMM. Triangles show locations of paleo-hurricane reconstructions
presented here (1- Salt Pond [this study] and Mattapoisett Marsh [Boldt et al., 2010]; 2 -
Outer Banks inlets [Mallinson et al., 2011]; 3 -Thatchpoint Blue Hole [van Hengstum et al.,
2013], 4 - Mullet Pond [Lane et al., 2011] and Spring Creek Pond [Brandon et al., 2013]; 5 -
Lighthouse Blue Hole [Denommee et al., 2014]; 6 - Laguna Playa Grande [Donnelly and
Woodruff, 2007])."

As indicated, there has been a similar study done in the Outer Banks inlets.

I do not think this report states that only the Northeast was hit.
Did you look up any of the studies cited? If so, are you convinced that the other studies were looking at the same things in this study, with the same level of temporal resolution, over the same time periods? I'm not. The studies I was able to access seem to show they were mainly concerned with trying to figure out SST, and most went back for about 1,000 years or so. It looked to me like the authors were using the studies cited to support claims of higher SST's during the same period they claim they were able to detect these increases in cat 2 plus hurricanes in the prehistoric past. That's fine, but the other studies don't seem to directly relate to hurricane return ratios.
Got about 3 inches of snow sunday and monday. The heaviest snow totals were to my north and the highest sleet was in far southern illinois (the sleet that brushed 62901IL).
Quoting 23. Neapolitan:

I'm not sure why you'd expect to see that, as that isn't at all what the study claims. In fgact, it repeatedly refers to "Western North America". That is, the east-facing stretch of the continent from South Florida to Newfoundland. From the article's conclusion:

"Future anthropogenic warming will likely be focused in the northern hemisphere, and as a
result the ITCZ will occupy a more northerly position [Broecker and Putnam, 2013],
potentially leading to increased hurricane genesis in the MDR [Kossin and Vimont, 2007;
Merlis et al., 2013]. More cyclogenesis in the MDR will likely also significantly impact the
intensity of storms impacting the highly populated western North Atlantic margin, as these
long-lived storms tend to become more intense."


The western North Atlantic corresponds to eastern North America.
Just picked up 0.24" from that squall line. More on the way tonight.
as for hits 1 in 10 yrs it does not happen that way. speaking of that miami really has not had anything too bad since andrew.
Third inactive Atlantic hurricane season in a row coming up? While the details entering into this hurricane season remain unclear, this isn't a positive sign for an active hurricane season. If anything, this signals another 2013 style hurricane season. Warm water north of 35N, leaving the focus of heat well out of the MDR (Main Development Region). There is still plenty of time for this to change however.





Quoting MAstu:
Kam-biu Liu has done a lot of research in this area. Here is a presentation on the subject:

Link
I've seen that presentation before and it's pretty interesting. The LSU project was looking at the return rate for cat 4 plus storms on the Caribbean and Gulf Cost going back about 3,800 years. Their data seems to show we can expect one of these catastrophic storms every 300 years or so. Given just what we've seen since 1995, it seems apparent that the 300 years is a statistical measure and not an actual predictor in any year, decade, or century.


NE St. Petersburg
Quoting 28. sar2401:

I read it also. It falls over from the first indicator storm. From the study "...the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob)...". I don't know how they defined "severe" but Bob was not a cat 3 at landfall in Rhode Island and certainly was not a cat 3 when it moved over Salt Pond. How do you start with Bob and use that to extrapolate to the other storms as being cat 3's? In addition, the core samples came from one pond in Massachusetts. Again, from the study: "A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 CE, with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 CE." Now it includes the Bahamas? The whole East Coast? What? Based on what evidence?

Their own calculations for return rate ratio was based on the number of cat 2 plus hurricanes hitting New England based on the best track database over the past 162 years, not cat 3 plus. (Section 6.2, first paragraph). The occurrence of cat 3 plus events was, and is, so rare that there wouldn't have been enough of them to use for a reasonable base of calculation. Why then does Donnelly make the statement in the press release quoted above that the return rate of cat 3 plus hurricanes is going to increase when the study doesn't use that criteria?

I have lots of other questions about methodology and conclusions that don't make sense to me either. I saw nothing in the way they were able to resolve temporal distribution that would have excluded sedimentation deposition from a powerful Nor'easter rather than a tropical cyclone. I won't plow thorough them all here and have the blog want to kill me. At the very least, Donnelly, the lead researcher, is making statements for attribution that are clearly not supported by the study.

sar, they are building on the work of others. The references to the Bahamas and the Carolinas came from other studies and published papers. (I have not looked up these papers.)

Did you happen to read the supporting documentation for the paper on AGU's site, "Attribution for Historical Event Beds"? It goes in depth as to how other, 'lesser' storms were excluded. Both the paper and the supporting documentation go into detail as to why Bob and the two storms from the 1600s were included as the marker beds. The discussion of particle size, stratigraphy, and common dating techniques for stratigraphy were discussed and shown graphically.

Regarding the suggestion that the storms were stronger, this from the paper discuses why they think that may be the case:

"Given modest increases in sea level over the last 2000 years in the region [Donnelly, 1998]
(~2 m), the barrier fronting Salt Pond has likely transgressed landward with time, with recent
historical shoreline retreat rates of ~10 m per century [Thieler, 2013]. As a result of this
landward barrier translation, older event beds recorded in SP2 were likely transported greater
distances than recent ones, which may point to even greater local intensities for prehistoric
events relative to Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE
.

Twelve of the thirty-two prehistoric event beds contain more coarse sediment than that
deposited by the Great Colonial Hurricane in 1635 CE (event bed #3), despite likely being
transported a greater distance due to barrier transgression related to sea-level rise. The largest
coarse anomaly peak occurs at 693 cm (event bed #26, Fig. 2) and dates to ~540 CE. A rip-up
clast of fine-grained organic sediment incorporated in the ~540 CE quartz sand deposit
further attests to the layers origin from a high-energy event (Fig. 2d). While the amount of
coarse fraction transported is only one metric for ascertaining the local intensity of an event
[Brandon et al., 2013; Woodruff et al., 2008a], these large coarse fraction peaks suggest that
the competence of local event driven waves and currents to transport sand sized particles was
greater during recent prehistory than experienced over the last ~400 years. This implies that
many of the prehistoric hurricanes may have locally been more intense than those impacting
the region historically
."

And the blog shouldn't be upset, because honestly, the blog topic is the very paper we are discussing.
Quoting 32. sar2401:

Did you look up any of the studies cited? If so, are you convinced that the other studies were looking at the same things in this study, with the same level of temporal resolution, over the same time periods? I'm not. The studies I was able to access seem to show they were mainly concerned with trying to figure out SST, and most went back for about 1,000 years or so. It looked to me like the authors were using the studies cited to support claims of higher SST's during the same period they claim they were able to detect these increases in cat 2 plus hurricanes in the prehistoric past. That's fine, but the other studies don't seem to directly relate to hurricane return ratios.

No, I didn't, but I did find the abstract for Mallinson (the Outer Banks research). You can read the study for $35.95 (!), but here's the abstract:

Abstract
The Outer Banks barrier islands of North Carolina, USA, contain a geologic record of inlet activity that extends from ca. 2200 cal yr BP to the present, and can be used as a proxy for storm activity. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating (26 samples) of inlet-fill and flood tide delta deposits, recognized in cores and geophysical data, provides the basis for understanding the chronology of storm impacts and comparison to other paleoclimate proxy data. OSL ages of historical inlet fill compare favorably to historical documentation of inlet activity, providing confidence in the technique. Comparison suggests that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) were both characterized by elevated storm conditions as indicated by much greater inlet activity relative to today. Given present understanding of atmospheric circulation patterns and sea-surface temperatures during the MWP and LIA, we suggest that increased inlet activity during the MWP responded to intensified hurricane impacts, while elevated inlet activity during the LIA was in response to increased nor'easter activity. A general decrease in storminess at mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic over the last 300 yr has allowed the system to evolve into a more continuous barrier with few inlets.
Quoting 35. tampabaymatt:

Just picked up 0.24" from that squall line. More on the way tonight.


You're in northwest Hillsborough right? If so that's not bad considering the line was thinner and looked weaker just a few frames ago when it went through your area. It looks like it's gotten quite a bit stronger and more solid as it's progressed further southeast.

That's likely due to the next shortwave digging in which has brought rain back into our area up here as well.


Tampa airport is getting drilled right now.
Quoting 42. Jedkins01:



You're in northwest Hillsborough right? If so that's not bad considering the line was thinner and looked weaker just a few frames ago when it went through your area. It looks like it's gotten quite a bit stronger and more solid as it's progressed further southeast.

That's likely due to the next shortwave digging in which has brought rain back into our area up here as well.


Yes, I'm in the Citrus Park area.
Strange, I thought I lived in southeastern North Carolina.

Light Rain

46°F

8°C

Humidity79%
Wind SpeedNW 7 mph
Barometer29.94 in (1013.8 mb)
Dewpoint40°F (4°C)
Visibility9.00 mi
Wind Chill42°F (6°C)

Last Update on 17 Feb 2:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather




We've had 0.53 so far here, which is better than I expected out of this. Most of the rain is light now, about 0.40 of it fell early in the morning in the warmer air ahead of the cold front. Since then it's been cold, raw, and windy light rain.

Winter is making itself known here now, its been a nasty day to walk around campus between classes.

Quoting 19. Neapolitan:

Well, scientists have a pretty good idea--and it'll be a whole lot more than "half an inch":




I suppose the silver lining to the land subsidence in the big cities of the Mid Atlantic is that people may wake up to reality sooner. Too little too late though.


more cold weather coming and more snow and rain for the northeast
Quoting 37. CybrTeddy:

Third inactive Atlantic hurricane season in a row coming up? While the details entering into this hurricane season remain unclear, this isn't a positive sign for an active hurricane season. If anything, this signals another 2013 style hurricane season. Warm water north of 35N, leaving the focus of heat well out of the MDR (Main Development Region). There is still plenty of time for this to change however.






And what change can make the AMO go positive?

vs
For what it's worth: Digging for more of this paleohurricanology I came across this thesis:

Erick Braun: Enhancing Georgia's Paleohurricane Record: A Comprehensive Analysis of Vibracores from St. Catherines Island
Date of Award: 5-10-2014
Abstract: Hurricanes are amongst the most devastating of the world’s natural disasters and can cause billions of dollars’ worth of damage every year. Efforts to predict where and when tropical cyclones might strike, then, could potentially save money and lives. A lack of data exists for the GA coast, and the future direction of climate change could potentially bring more hurricanes to the state. This study provides information to enhance the paleohurricane record by examining three vibracores drawn from St. Catherines Island, GA. After interpreting the environments that generated the sediment found in one of these cores and corroborating evidence from the additional cores, six potential hurricane events were discovered, five of which were likely major hurricanes, category 3 or higher. Magnitudes were determined by comparison to event six, thought to be “The Great Gale of 1804”, a major hurricane recorded by the sedimentary record of St. Catherines Island.




cold weather !!
A casualty of the recent storm in the Northeast

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17 /kate-matrosova-bnp-paribas-trader-dies-in-mountai n-hike-at-32
Some proxy indicators for past climate temperature are pretty sound. Foraminfera shells in sea bed sediments, pollen in lake varves, for example, are hard to argue with.

Tree rings as a proxy indicator for past temperatures are a bit more 'iffy', it seems to me. Tree growth is also determined by availability of water and possibly also the abundance of insect pests. So, I tend to put less faith in the palaeodendrochronological record (I'm always looking for a chance to sneak that word in).

However, I'm completely at a loss to understand the relevance of tree ring data for major hurricane frequency. Could be there's a perfectly sound rationale I'm unaware of, but I remain to be convinced.



light snow on wednesday night!! 1 to 3 inches
Quoting 44. tampabaymatt:



Yes, I'm in the Citrus Park area.


Oh ok, yeah the line definitely got heavier after so it's surprising you got even that much, must be efficient rain makers.

Instability was very low with this front which is why it's a solid but thin line, not very tall, deep convection, just shallow forced stuff by moisture and incoming front and energy.
NOAA's snowfall/depth map. Not so sure about its accuracy though.
Quoting LAbonbon:
{snip}
which may point to even greater local intensities for prehistoric
events relative to Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE {snip}

I've snipped some of your reply out since it's you, me, and about three other people here who really care about this kind of thing. :-) Let's just look at that one statement. Bob was the most intense hurricane to hit New England since, say, 1900? I don't think many of our hurricane trackers would agree. So, why Bob? The core sample picture showed the deposition from Bob, Carol, and the Long Island Hurricane of 1938. Carol was at least as intense as Bob, and the 1938 storm was much ore intense in terms of storm surge and deposition. Bob looked bigger and more impressive on the core but I assume that's because the deposition was more recent. We know for sure we have a 1938 storm that was more intense, you can see it in the core, so why choose Bob as your marker for historical storms?

I'm not saying this study is somehow fatally flawed. I don't know enough about this part of science to even make that judgement. I do know enough about study construction to ask some questions about why things were done in a certain way. What I would like to see is another team of paleotempestologists (is that a word?) get the same cores and run the same tests to see if they come up with the same answers. That's the way we replicated studies in biology and I don't see why it wouldn't apply here.
or Galveston, or Mobile, or New Orleans, etc, etc. Such an ignorant comment - you, Mah, should be ashamed.
-
Quoting 29. ColoradoBob1:



Probably get an argument about that in Tacloban ..........




Quoting 5. MahFL:

No one really cares about a bad hurricane every 10 years, they just rebuild.
Glad I'm not there

Wed70% Precip. / < 1 in
Mostly cloudy with snow showers developing during the afternoon. High 34F. SE winds shifting to W at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Wed Night20% Precip. / 0 in
Some lingering evening flurries or snow showers. Some clouds early will give way to generally clear conditions overnight. Low 3F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Thu10% Precip. / 0 in
Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 14F. Winds WNW at 10 to 15 mph.

Thu Night0% Precip. / 0 in
Some clouds early will give way to generally clear conditions overnight. Low -3F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NOAA's snowfall map. Not so sure about it's accuracy though.
It's certainly not accurate for Alabama, and I don't think it's accurate for Mississippi in terms of snow. Since it's for yesterday evening at 6:00 pm CST, and the scale with the white/gray color is 0.39" and less, maybe it's extrapolated ice reports instead.
NWS has a low of 29 for KDAB Fri. morning. Still don't think we are making it out of the 40s on Thurs. but we will see.

Link
Quoting Catherdr:
A casualty of the recent storm in the Northeast

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-17 /kate-matrosova-bnp-paribas-trader-dies-in-mountai n-hike-at-32
This is the right link to the story. As I've said repeatedly, if you don't use the link button, your link will always fail. I don't know what to say about this poor woman but having an emergency locator beacon will do you no good if the weather is so bad that search and rescue teams can't reach you. She made a terrible decision to go on a hike alone in an area with multiple warnings out about not doing that very thing. RIP.


Tampa Bay area. 34 shown for Tampa low on Friday morning, which means I'll get to the freezing mark at least for a little while.
Quoting 62. sar2401:

This is the right link to the story. As I've said repeatedly, if you don't use the link button, your link will always fail. I don't know what to say about this poor woman but having an emergency locator beacon will do you no good if the weather is so bad that search and rescue teams can't reach you. She made a terrible decision to go on a hike alone in an area with multiple warnings out about not doing that very thing. RIP.


I think the issue might be the "link button" isn't a very intuitive thing to find.

58. flsky

If there's one thing the web can do, and do well, it's to sit in an intact structure , and comment on how the people in the rubble don't really have it that bad.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 14U
4:48 AM EST February 18 2015
========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 15.1S 155.9E or 970 kilometers northeast of Mackay and 1150 kilometers north northeast of Bundaberg has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gust of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

A tropical low lies over the central Coral Sea. It is expected to shift towards the southwest during today and Thursday, possibly intensifying to a tropical cyclone before crossing the east Queensland coast between St Lawrence and Double Island Point early Friday.

The tropical low will result in significant impacts over east Queensland districts south of about St Lawrence regardless of whether or not it transitions to a tropical cyclone.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.

GALES are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Double Island Point during Thursday evening.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Double Island Point during Thursday, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced as the system approaches the coast. Water levels are expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide on Thursday.

Dangerous surf is expected to develop about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape from early Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 17.1S 155.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 19.1S 153.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 23.3S 151.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1) nearby Gladstone
72 HRS 28.0S 152.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
===================
Convection has increased significantly during the last 24 hours, with the system showing a clear intensifying trend despite the presence of moderate to strong easterly wind shear suggested by the 12UTC CIMSS winds.

Location of the low level circulation center has been difficult due to a dearth of proximal observations. 12UTC ASCAT suggested a small area of gales in at least the western quadrant. The system exhibits a uniform CDO on IR satellite imagery. Applying the Central Cold Cover rule gives DT 2.5. MET and PAT agree, so final T and CI are 2.5.

The system has been moving slowly east during the last 24 hours, however influence from a mid-level ridge extending from the east should begin to steer the system southwest during the next few hours, and this movement looks to be maintained until landfall on the central Queensland coast during Thursday night or Friday morning. NWP models suggest broadly that moderate northeasterly shear will persist over the system during most of this period and intensification is expected to be slow. There is a significant possibility that tropical cyclone intensity may not be reached.

Regardless of whether the system develops into a tropical cyclone, the pressure gradient between the low and a high in the Tasman Sea will produce a broad area of gales and heavy rain which will have a significant impact on the southern Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for St Lawrence to Double Island Point

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE LAM, CATEGORY TWO (13U)
6:04 AM CST February 18 2015
========================================

At 6:00 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Lam, Category Two (981 hPa) located at 11.3S 137.6E or 140 kilometers northeast of Nhulunbuy Airport and 230 kilometers east northeast of Elcho Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gust of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lam is expected to continue intensifying as it moves in a general westwards direction before turning towards the southwest into Thursday.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are currently being experienced at Cape Wessel and are expected to develop elsewhere in coastal areas between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy during the morning. These GALES are likely to extend further west to Goulburn Island and possibly south to Groote Eylandt later in the day or into early Thursday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts greater than 170 km/h may develop over the Gove Peninsula and northeast Wessel islands from midday today. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may also extend further west to Milingimbi overnight tonight.

GALES may extend west to Croker Island or south to Port Roper during Thursday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Elcho Island and Cape Shield, including Nhulunbuy are specifically warned of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides will rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

HEAVY RAIN is likely to cause flooding of low-lying areas in the northeast Top End during today and persist into Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 11.4S 137.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 11.4S 136.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3) northeast of Elcho Island
48 HRS 12.7S 136.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2) northwest of Cape Shield
72 HRS 14.9S 134.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) nearby Port Roper

Additional Information
===================
Tropical cyclone Lam is continuing to move in a westwards direction under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated across central Australia. The system should continue moving in this direction towards the northeast Top End before developing a south southwesterly track during Thursday due to a weakening of the mid-level ridge and interactions with an upper trough across southern Australia.

The current intensity of tropical cyclone Lam remains at a category 2, but the system is expected to intensify into Wednesday. Easterly wind shear is expected to decrease during Wednesday, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and the potential development of two outflow channels, this may lead to a period of rapid intensification.

Dvorak analysis was based on an embedded center pattern with a colder than white surrounding grey shade, giving a DT of 5.0. MET and PAT were 3.5. FT was based on MET as DT was not completely clear. CI was maintained at 4.0. The position was determined using Gove Airport radar and is considered good to fair.

Computer model guidance appear to be fairly consistent in having a westwards track during Wednesday before developing more of a south southwesterly track during Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Goulburn Island to Alyangula, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Croker Island to Goulburn Island and Alyangula to Port Roper
deleted
Quoting LAbonbon:

No, I didn't, but I did find the abstract for Mallinson (the Outer Banks research). You can read the study for $35.95 (!), but here's the abstract:

Abstract
The Outer Banks barrier islands of North Carolina, USA, contain a geologic record of inlet activity that extends from ca. 2200 cal yr BP to the present, and can be used as a proxy for storm activity. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating (26 samples) of inlet-fill and flood tide delta deposits, recognized in cores and geophysical data, provides the basis for understanding the chronology of storm impacts and comparison to other paleoclimate proxy data. OSL ages of historical inlet fill compare favorably to historical documentation of inlet activity, providing confidence in the technique. Comparison suggests that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) were both characterized by elevated storm conditions as indicated by much greater inlet activity relative to today. Given present understanding of atmospheric circulation patterns and sea-surface temperatures during the MWP and LIA, we suggest that increased inlet activity during the MWP responded to intensified hurricane impacts, while elevated inlet activity during the LIA was in response to increased nor'easter activity. A general decrease in storminess at mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic over the last 300 yr has allowed the system to evolve into a more continuous barrier with few inlets.
I decided I wasn't going to plop down $35.95 for that one either, especially since a Happy Meal is a big deal for me now. :-) The abstract did get me thinking about about some of the huge Nor'easters we've had just since I've been around and how you go about distinguishing them from cat 2 plus hurricanes. Since it appears the Donnelly study couldn't resolve time periods down to a year, let alone seasons, it would seem logical that some sediments were the result of non-tropical storms. I didn't see that topic addressed specifically in the study.
Just read the updated blog on the issue of the core samples and elevated hurricane activity from the Caribbean to the Gulf. Here is another interesting core study on the decline of the Maya in Central America based upon possible drought issues. Interesting that the 800 to 1000 AD time period also happens to fall within the very large period (150-1150) mentioned above. However, I don't know how far core samples can go in terms of accurately predicting the future:


In between 300 A.D. and 900 A.D. Mayans prospered through much of Central America and in Yacatan in Southern Mexico. It is said that there could be numerous causes for the disappearance, or the turn down of the Ancient Mayan Civilization.


Lake Chichancanab's in Mexico, meaning "Little sea" has helped us to understand a bit about the environment in the region where the Mayans lived. David Hodell, Mark Brenner, and Jason Curtis took core samples from Lake Chichancanab. The data from the core samples indicated significant meteorological changes during the same time that the Maya's life took a dramatic turn for the worse.


The geologists of the University of Florida needed the climate conditions around Lake Chichancanab to help answer their questions about the Mayas decline. The May 2000 expedition to Chichancanab was the second team that made it to the region. The 1993 samples helped the geologists determine that between 800 and 1000 A.D. was their driest draught in 7,000 years.

Quoting LAbonbon:

busy snacking, will replace this w/ real reply when I get to the bottom of the popcorn bag :P
LOL. I should go off and do some real work too before my fiance wakes up from her night job and starts yelling. :-)
Quoting 57. sar2401:

I've snipped some of your reply out since it's you, me, and about three other people here who really care about this kind of thing. :-) Let's just look at that one statement. Bob was the most intense hurricane to hit New England since, say, 1900? I don't think many of our hurricane trackers would agree. So, why Bob? The core sample picture showed the deposition from Bob, Carol, and the Long Island Hurricane of 1938. Carol was at least as intense as Bob, and the 1938 storm was much ore intense in terms of storm surge and deposition. Bob looked bigger and more impressive on the core but I assume that's because the deposition was more recent. We know for sure we have a 1938 storm that was more intense, you can see it in the core, so why choose Bob as your marker for historical storms?

I'm not saying this study is somehow fatally flawed. I don't know enough about this part of science to even make that judgement. I do know enough about study construction to ask some questions about why things were done in a certain way. What I would like to see is another team of paleotempestologists (is that a word?) get the same cores and run the same tests to see if they come up with the same answers. That's the way we replicated studies in biology and I don't see why it wouldn't apply here.

This is why Bob was used:

"3.12 Event Attribution

The most recently deposited coarse-grained event bed (#1) occurs at about 10 cm depth and based on our age model dates to between 1982 and 2005 CE at 95% confidence (Fig. 2b, c;Supplementary Fig. 6). This event bed was likely deposited by Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE, the only category 2 or greater storm since 1851 CE [Landsea et al., 2004] to pass within 100 km to the west of Falmouth (Supplementary Fig. 4). Hurricane Bob passed about 60 km west of Salt Pond (Fig. 1b) with maximum sustained winds of 45 m/s, causing a storm tide ~1.6 m
above MHW in Falmouth [Boldt et al. , 2010] and maximum offshore wave heights of approximately 4 meters [Cheung et al., 2007]. Washover fans across the western portion of the barrier fronting Salt Pond evident in aerial photographs taken immediately following Hurricane Bob indicate overtopping by the combination of surge and wave runup (Supplementary Fig. 7). Historically, severe winter storms and tropical cyclones that either pass offshore or make landfall to the east have failed to produce storm tides capable of overtopping the barrier fronting Salt Pond (see supplemental material) [Boldt et al., 2010]. Conversely, hurricanes that made landfall further west than Bob in the middle part of the 20th century (e.g., 1938, 1944 CE) produced storm tides capable of overtopping the Salt Pond barrier [Boldt et al., 2010], yet these events did not leave coarse event bed in Salt Pond"

Bob is a great control storm to use for dating and landfall locations.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh ok, yeah the line definitely got heavier after so it's surprising you got even that much, must be efficient rain makers.

Instability was very low with this front which is why it's a solid but thin line, not very tall, deep convection, just shallow forced stuff by moisture and incoming front and energy.


We got a brief but pretty heavy rain in Oldsmar. I know that Matt called this a squall line. I don't think it is because there was no lightning or strong winds. Is there criteria for a line to be officially called a squall line?
Quoting sar2401:
I read it also. It falls over from the first indicator storm. From the study "...the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob)...". I don't know how they defined "severe" but Bob was not a cat 3 at landfall in Rhode Island and certainly was not a cat 3 when it moved over Salt Pond.
The study never states that Bob was a Cat 3 at landfall. It says Bob was "severe", and that is correct in every sense of the word: Bob's effects were indeed severe.
Quoting sar2401:
How do you start with Bob and use that to extrapolate to the other storms as being cat 3's.
The study didn't extrapolate from just those three storms. In fact, it explicitly states it didn't extrapolate at all, but rather based its findings on dozens of prehistoric events. (Abstract, paragraph 1)
Quoting sar2401:
In addition, the core samples came from one pond in Massachusetts. Again, from the study: "A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 CE, with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 CE." Now it includes the Bahamas? The whole East Coast? What? Based on what evidence?
The study clearly states that inferences to the spatial distribution of historical storms were based on not just Salt Pond, but also locations such as Lighthouse Bluehole in the Caribbean and Laguna Playa Grande in Puerto Rico. (3.2)
Quoting sar2401:
>Their own calculations for return rate ratio was based on the number of cat 2 plus hurricanes hitting New England based on the best track database over the past 162 years, not cat 3 plus. (Section 6.2, first paragraph). The occurrence of cat 3 plus events was, and is, so rare that there wouldn't have been enough of them to use for a reasonable base of calculation. Why then does Donnelly make the statement in the press release quoted above that the return rate of cat 3 plus hurricanes is going to increase when the study doesn't use that criteria?
I believe you mean section 2.6. If you read that entire section, you'll see the math the researchers used to derive their estimates. There's nothing tricky about that math, but the reader does need to be able to follow along to make complete sense of it.
Quoting sar2401:
I have lots of other questions about methodology and conclusions that don't make sense to me either. I saw nothing in the way they were able to resolve temporal distribution that would have excluded sedimentation deposition from a powerful Nor'easter rather than a tropical cyclone. I won't plow thorough them all here and have the blog want to kill me. At the very least, Donnelly, the lead researcher, is making statements for attribution that are clearly not supported by the study.
Neither the publishers nor the editors nor the author's nor the reviewers agree with you; they seem to agree that the paper is scientifically sound. That being said, however, you're certainly free to write up and submit for review an in-depth rebuttal. I think I speak for many of us when I say that we'd read it with an open mind...
Kate Matrosova, a New York resident and Wall Street trader, froze to death while attempting a solo hike of the Presidential Mountain Range in New Hampshire, over the weekend.

This reminds me of the fellow in Utah who had to cut his arm off , because he didn't tell anyone where he was going.
Paleohurricane Science
By Andrew Alden
Long before 2005's Hurricane Katrina outdid all its American predecessors in damages, experts have warned that the United States is growing more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Part of planning for future disasters is finding out their patterns in the past. In the case of earthquakes, we have pursued this research - paleoseismology - for decades. For hurricanes and other storms, the corresponding research - paleotempestology - is just beginning. ...

Paleotempestology
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
This term is the core of UNC Charlotte professor Scott P. Hippensteel's research. Though it seems a complex word, if broken down, the meaning is simple. "Paleo" is the Greek derivation for "ancient" or "long ago". Tempest is defined as a storm, usually a violent one. "logy" is a Latin and Greek root meaning "a branch of science," or the specific study of something. Thus, paleotempestology means the study of ancient storms.
...

Through his studies of paleotempestology, Scott Hippensteel thinks that he has found an answer, in a microorganism called foraminifers. Foraminifers are an aquatic microorganism that reside in the sediment of the sea bed. When they die, they leave small shells that can be traced through time. Think of foraminifer fossil deposits as a form of time capsule.
Foraminifers usually reside off of the shores of land masses. When a significant storm- say, a Level 5 hurricane- arrives, the power of the storm whips up the sediment on the sea bed and deposits it closer to the shore, in the bays and directly off of the land mass. They remain in this new location and, as Hippensteel has found, can be used as indicators of large hurricanes in the past.
...

Glad that I've met the foraminifera this evening :-) They look a bit like Christmas cookies, don't they?
A word about Forams , as a proxy.

There are over 10,000 Foraminifera both living (8,708) and fossil (1,837). Each one lives in it's own sweet spot of temperature, salinity , depth, etc, etc.

The Foraminifera fossil record dates back to the mid-Jurassic, and represents an unparalleled record for scientists testing and documenting the evolutionary process.

The number one users of this record are the oil companies.
Quoting 72. luvtogolf:



We got a brief but pretty heavy rain in Oldsmar. I know that Matt called this a squall line. I don't think it is because there was no lightning or strong winds. Is there criteria for a line to be officially called a squall line?


Yeah. I didn't mean to make it sound worse than it was. It was exactly as you described. A good solid downpour for a brief amount of time with no lightning. I have no idea whether there is criteria to call a line of storms a squall line. Good question for somebody else to answer.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Yeah. I didn't mean to make it sound worse than it was. It was exactly as you described. A good solid downpour for a brief amount of time with no lightning. I have no idea whether there is criteria to call a line of storms a squall line. Good question for somebody else to answer.


It was pretty heavy rain but brief. Your comment raised a question that I never really thought about. Is there criteria? We'll see if an expert answers.
Northern Argentina floods kill at least six in Cordoba

The river overflowed after 32cm (12.6in) fell in the space of 12 hours, trapping people in their cars.

Link
Quoting luvtogolf:


It was pretty heavy rain but brief. Your comment raised a question that I never really thought about. Is there criteria? We'll see if an expert answers.

Squall Line

A line of active thunderstorms, either continuous or with breaks, including contiguous precipitation areas resulting from the existence of the thunderstorms.

NWS definition. You can have rain in a squall line with no lightning or thunder as long as it's part of a line that does have lightning and thunder. Otherwise, it's just a line of showers. They can be intense showers, but not a squall line.
An error with that is the last time ANY tropical cyclone hit New England was Bob in 1991, the rest were recurves off the east of Cape Cod/Nantucket, or Inland prior to hitting New England and maintained tropical storm winds into the region.
The idea that suddenly a Cat 3 will hit New England every 10 years is funny.
Several burst water pipes causing floods on Toronto streets
02/17/2015 07:10 AM Toronto staff
Roller-coaster temperatures in Toronto are creating havoc around the city, with many water pipes bursting.
Quoting 57. sar2401:

I've snipped some of your reply out since it's you, me, and about three other people here who really care about this kind of thing. :-) Let's just look at that one statement. Bob was the most intense hurricane to hit New England since, say, 1900? I don't think many of our hurricane trackers would agree. So, why Bob? The core sample picture showed the deposition from Bob, Carol, and the Long Island Hurricane of 1938. Carol was at least as intense as Bob, and the 1938 storm was much ore intense in terms of storm surge and deposition. Bob looked bigger and more impressive on the core but I assume that's because the deposition was more recent. We know for sure we have a 1938 storm that was more intense, you can see it in the core, so why choose Bob as your marker for historical storms?

I'm not saying this study is somehow fatally flawed. I don't know enough about this part of science to even make that judgement. I do know enough about study construction to ask some questions about why things were done in a certain way. What I would like to see is another team of paleotempestologists (is that a word?) get the same cores and run the same tests to see if they come up with the same answers. That's the way we replicated studies in biology and I don't see why it wouldn't apply here.

Quoting 71. Naga5000:


This is why Bob was used:

"3.12 Event Attribution

The most recently deposited coarse-grained event bed (#1) occurs at about 10 cm depth and based on our age model dates to between 1982 and 2005 CE at 95% confidence (Fig. 2b, c;Supplementary Fig. 6). This event bed was likely deposited by Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE, the only category 2 or greater storm since 1851 CE [Landsea et al., 2004] to pass within 100 km to the west of Falmouth (Supplementary Fig. 4). Hurricane Bob passed about 60 km west of Salt Pond (Fig. 1b) with maximum sustained winds of 45 m/s, causing a storm tide ~1.6 m
above MHW in Falmouth [Boldt et al. , 2010] and maximum offshore wave heights of approximately 4 meters [Cheung et al., 2007]. Washover fans across the western portion of the barrier fronting Salt Pond evident in aerial photographs taken immediately following Hurricane Bob indicate overtopping by the combination of surge and wave runup (Supplementary Fig. 7). Historically, severe winter storms and tropical cyclones that either pass offshore or make landfall to the east have failed to produce storm tides capable of overtopping the barrier fronting Salt Pond (see supplemental material) [Boldt et al., 2010]. Conversely, hurricanes that made landfall further west than Bob in the middle part of the 20th century (e.g., 1938, 1944 CE) produced storm tides capable of overtopping the Salt Pond barrier [Boldt et al., 2010], yet these events did not leave coarse event bed in Salt Pond"

Bob is a great control storm to use for dating and landfall locations.

In addition to Naga's posted excerpt from the paper, these are two excerpts from the supporting information for the paper:

"Six additional extratropical storms resulted in storm tides between 0.9 and 1.05 m above MHW
at the Woods Hole gauge between 1932 and 1982 CE and like the extratropical storms of the
last few decades, none of these storms resulted in event beds in Salt Pond. A series of
hurricanes made landfall on Long Island, NY in the middle part of the 20th century (e.g., 1938,
1944, 1954 CE), and while Woods Hole experienced significant storm tides related to these
events [Boldt et al., 2010], none of these events appear to have left a distinguishable coarse
event bed in Salt Pond
."

"Historically extratropical storms have not generated sufficient storm tides and wave energy to
mobilize and transport coarse sediment to the depo-center at Salt Pond. Further, despite
generating enough surge to overtop the barrier fronting Salt Pond, more distal landfalling
severe historical hurricanes (i.e. 1938, 1944, 1954) with relatively weak local winds (perhaps
tropical storm force or marginal category one strength) failed to generate event beds in Salt
Pond
."

I don't see where either Carol for the Hurricane of 1938 are shown in the soil core graphs at all. From Figure S6a of the Supporting Information, and in Figures 2c and 3 of the paper, Bob is identified, as well as the two storms from the 1600s.

I'm much more at ease reading geological methods and studies than studies regarding meteorology, so we're kind of 'opposite' in that aspect, I guess. I have no qualms with the methodology used in this study as far as the identification of event beds are concerned.

The portion of the study that no one has really talked about in the blog is the AMM/MDR SST/migrating ITCZ aspect of paper (discussed in the Climatic Forcing and Conclusions and Implications sections). That's what I'm less knowledgeable about, and would love to see some discussion of this.
Cyclone Lam expected to make landfall as Coral Sea low tracks towards the Queensland coast
Brian Williams, The Courier-Mail, February 18, 2015 12:00AM
Parts of Brisbane and the Gold and Sunshine coasts could receive up to 400mm of rain for the three days from tomorrow as a Coral Sea low tracks towards the coast.
Flash flooding is expected, with the low an even money bet to form into a cyclone.
It comes as Cyclone Lam in the Gulf of Carpentaria is expected to muscle up into a category 4 tropical storm, the second most powerful. It will be the first cyclone to cross the coast this season, after Bakung and Kate veered away.
Only two previous cyclone seasons in the past 50 years have seen the first coastal crossing occur so late.
Winds from Cyclone Lam will reach about 170km/h today, accompanied by a storm surge and flooding. ...


Good night with this. Weather in Europe is calm, except some areas in the western and south-central Mediterranean (including the northern coast of Africa) and northwestern Turkey (hit by sea-effect snow). More at estofex.org.

Both the European and Canadian model suggest the possibility of a quick thump of accumulating snow Saturday afternoon and evening before precipitation changes to ice and then rain.This is just a quick and early look at this possible storm system and there is ample time for the details to change and perhaps change radically. We’ll keep you informed with daily updates.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

I decided I wasn't going to plop down $35.95 for that one either, especially since a Happy Meal is a big deal for me now. :-) The abstract did get me thinking about about some of the huge Nor'easters we've had just since I've been around and how you go about distinguishing them from cat 2 plus hurricanes. Since it appears the Donnelly study couldn't resolve time periods down to a year, let alone seasons, it would seem logical that some sediments were the result of non-tropical storms. I didn't see that topic addressed specifically in the study.

See post#83 - extratropical storms were addressed.
Dr. Rood has post up on uncertainty , and this event in Northern Argentina is text book example , I don't think anyone in Cordoba saw this coming , (32cm (12.6in) fell in the space of 12 hours).

As these events go, it's a not steady one inch an hour thing , there is period in them when it rains so hard you find it hard to breath , because all the air has been displaced by rain drops. This burst makes the flood.

This rain in Northern Argentina is same thing powering the snows in Boston, the oceans are giving up their heat .

Anyone who doubts that , has no idea of the water cycle we live with.
From the BBC:

Stop jumping from windows into snow, Boston mayor says

excerpt:

""This isn't Loon Mountain, this is the city of Boston," Mr Walsh said."
84. barbamz

Your a good egg, a sharp eye, and we all learn from you , I for one , want to say thanks.
Quoting Naga5000:

This is why Bob was used:

"3.12 Event Attribution

The most recently deposited coarse-grained event bed (#1) occurs at about 10 cm depth and based on our age model dates to between 1982 and 2005 CE at 95% confidence (Fig. 2b, c;Supplementary Fig. 6). This event bed was likely deposited by Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE, the only category 2 or greater storm since 1851 CE [Landsea et al., 2004] to pass within 100 km to the west of Falmouth (Supplementary Fig. 4). Hurricane Bob passed about 60 km west of Salt Pond (Fig. 1b) with maximum sustained winds of 45 m/s, causing a storm tide ~1.6 m
above MHW in Falmouth [Boldt et al. , 2010] and maximum offshore wave heights of approximately 4 meters [Cheung et al., 2007]. Washover fans across the western portion of the barrier fronting Salt Pond evident in aerial photographs taken immediately following Hurricane Bob indicate overtopping by the combination of surge and wave runup (Supplementary Fig. 7). Historically, severe winter storms and tropical cyclones that either pass offshore or make landfall to the east have failed to produce storm tides capable of overtopping the barrier fronting Salt Pond (see supplemental material) [Boldt et al., 2010]. Conversely, hurricanes that made landfall further west than Bob in the middle part of the 20th century (e.g., 1938, 1944 CE) produced storm tides capable of overtopping the Salt Pond barrier [Boldt et al., 2010], yet these events did not leave coarse event bed in Salt Pond"

Bob is a great control storm to use for dating and landfall locations.
I read that. What it tells me is that the criteria for this study was analogs of Bob, even though the deposition from Carol and 1938 were clearly visible and labeled as such in the core sample picture. If a storm didn't overwash into the pond, did it not show up in the deposited material? The 1938 hurricane, the most intense storm since 1635, passed within about 180 km west of Salt Pond, but that just wasn't close enough? One of the things I was trained to do was to look at baselines chosen for studies and see if they were the best ones in terms of the hypothesis. This all may be perfectly clear to a paleotempestologist, but it seems odd that you'd not choose the only real cat 3 hurricane that hit west of Salt Pond as your marker and use Bob instead.
84. barbamz

Your a good egg, a sharp eye, and we all learn from you , I for one , want to say thanks.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

I decided I wasn't going to plop down $35.95 for that one either, especially since a Happy Meal is a big deal for me now. :-) The abstract did get me thinking about about some of the huge Nor'easters we've had just since I've been around and how you go about distinguishing them from cat 2 plus hurricanes. Since it appears the Donnelly study couldn't resolve time periods down to a year, let alone seasons, it would seem logical that some sediments were the result of non-tropical storms. I didn't see that topic addressed specifically in the study.


Try writing the author for a study copy. He may oblige you. David J. Mallinson

Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA

Corresponding author. Link


mallinsond@ecu.edu
Quoting 88. LAbonbon:

From the BBC:

Stop jumping from windows into snow, Boston mayor says

excerpt:

""This isn't Loon Mountain, this is the city of Boston," Mr Walsh said."
Doesn't he have bigger problems?
88. LAbonbon

It snowed 3 feet at Estes Park on May 15 th 1975 , we all went to Patricia's cabin with every bit of liquor we could haul.

Clearly the mayor has never seen cabin fever.
Quoting LAbonbon:


In addition to Naga's posted excerpt from the paper, these are two excerpts from the supporting information for the paper:

"Six additional extratropical storms resulted in storm tides between 0.9 and 1.05 m above MHW
at the Woods Hole gauge between 1932 and 1982 CE and like the extratropical storms of the
last few decades, none of these storms resulted in event beds in Salt Pond. A series of
hurricanes made landfall on Long Island, NY in the middle part of the 20th century (e.g., 1938,
1944, 1954 CE), and while Woods Hole experienced significant storm tides related to these
events [Boldt et al., 2010], none of these events appear to have left a distinguishable coarse
event bed in Salt Pond
."

"Historically extratropical storms have not generated sufficient storm tides and wave energy to
mobilize and transport coarse sediment to the depo%u2010center at Salt Pond. Further, despite
generating enough surge to overtop the barrier fronting Salt Pond, more distal landfalling
severe historical hurricanes (i.e. 1938, 1944, 1954) with relatively weak local winds (perhaps
tropical storm force or marginal category one strength) failed to generate event beds in Salt
Pond
."

I don't see where either Carol for the Hurricane of 1938 are shown in the soil core graphs at all. From Figure S6a of the Supporting Information, and in Figures 2c and 3 of the paper, Bob is identified, as well as the two storms from the 1600s.

I'm much more at ease reading geological methods and studies than studies regarding meteorology, so we're kind of 'opposite' in that aspect, I guess. I have no qualms with the methodology used in this study as far as the identification of event beds are concerned.

The portion of the study that no one has really talked about in the blog is the AMM/MDR SST/migrating ITCZ aspect of paper (discussed in the Climatic Forcing and Conclusions and Implications sections). That's what I'm less knowledgeable about, and would love to see some discussion of this.
Rats! I knew I should never have sat down here again until I got the dishwasher emptied. :-) I don't think my two semesters of geology quite qualify me as an expert in this are but I'm pretty good at reading English. Is this a fair conclusion, based on Bob?

"This study would find storms that were close analogs to Bob in terms of strength and path. Any storms that were weaker of followed a path too far west from Salt Pond wouldn't have been found with this study".

I haven't gotten hot and heavy into the forcing part yet. I have to empty the dishwasher!
More winter precip for folks who do not want anymore..

Quoting 74. ColoradoBob1:

Kate Matrosova, a New York resident and Wall Street trader, froze to death while attempting a solo hike of the Presidential Mountain Range in New Hampshire, over the weekend.

This reminds me of the fellow in Utah who had to cut his arm off , because he didn't tell anyone where he was going.


Unfortunately this happens a lot in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. This lady was very well prepared, but 100 mph sustained winds with zero visibility blowing snow can do even the best in. I don't know why some winter hikers underestimate the mountains here. Maybe because the elevation isn't that high, but it is home to some of "the worst weather in the world" as the famous Mount Washington observatory claims. I have hiked some of these mountains in June and the bottom can be 75 and sunny, but once you get up there I am glad I packed a heavy coat. Do people try other mountains in the worst winter weather in other parts? Because it seems we get a few of these every year and this lady seemed one of the most prepared. It is really deadly up there and I know of a couple suicides at Mt. Lafayette where I have climbed.
Quoting 96. Methurricanes:

Doesn't he have bigger problems?

Post deleted, in case this post has caused certain problems with this blog. Good night everybody.
Quoting Pipejazz:


Try writing the author for a study copy. He may oblige you. David J. Mallinson

Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA

Corresponding author. Link


mallinsond@ecu.edu
Thanks. I already did that and am awaiting an answer. He looks like a nice guy in his picture but, boy, does he ever look young! I turn 69 tomorrow, so I'm probably more sensitive to that than usual. :-)
Quoting 98. sar2401:

Rats! I knew I should never have sat down here again until I got the dishwasher emptied. :-) I don't think my two semesters of geology quite qualify me as an expert in this are but I'm pretty good at reading English. Is this a fair conclusion, based on Bob?

"This study would find storms that were close analogs to Bob in terms of strength and path. Any storms that were weaker of followed a path too far west from Salt Pond wouldn't have been found with this study".

I haven't gotten hot and heavy into the forcing part yet. I have to empty the dishwasher!

Close, or perhaps this:

"This study would find storms that were similar, or stronger, in intensity to Bob, and followed a relatively similar track to the west of the study location. Less intense historical events (minor tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, and more distal intense storms) would not have been identified in this study."

Your comment regarding chores made me think of Hi and Lois' job jar :)
Quoting 78. luvtogolf:



It was pretty heavy rain but brief. Your comment raised a question that I never really thought about. Is there criteria? We'll see if an expert answers.
Link
I wonder if i am alone in this feeling. I have been a faithful friend of wunderground since at least 2007. I do not like the lack of metereology i am seeing now in my forecasts since they joined in with the weather channel. It has become a guessing game, a model chaser, and a follow the Atlanta based weather office for my forecasts here in Calhoun,Ga. We are 50+ miles from Chattanooga and our weather is not even in the Atlanta market on the TV stations for the most part. There is a big difference in our weather and the weather for Rome which is only 25-30 miles south of us, but we re given the same basic forecast as them.

It did not used to be that way. Wunderground treated you as a local market and graded your forecast accordingly. They also did not just "FOLLOW SAID MODELDS" but used guts and instinct IN THEIR FORECASTING.(or at least it seemed that way)

Now maybe i am way off, but it seems they have become a copy cat weather channel app.....
Quoting wartsttocs:


Unfortunately this happens a lot in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. This lady was very well prepared, but 100 mph sustained winds with zero visibility blowing snow can do even the best in. I don't know why some winter hikers underestimate the mountains here. Maybe because the elevation isn't that high, but it is home to some of "the worst weather in the world" as the famous Mount Washington observatory claims. I have hiked some of these mountains in June and the bottom can be 75 and sunny, but once you get up there I am glad I packed a heavy coat. Do people try other mountains in the worst winter weather in other parts? Because it seems we get a few of these every year and this lady seemed one of the most prepared. It is really deadly up there and I know of a couple suicides at Mt. Lafayette where I have climbed.
Yes, happened in the Sierra, the Coast Ranges, anyplace people can find a mountain to get away. None of those quite have the unique hazards of Mt. Washington and the Presidential Range though. I have to assume she was experienced enough to at least make a cursory check of the weather, but maybe not. If I had read the crew at the top of the Mt. Washington observatory were zipping themselves in for the next few days and you were pretty much on your own if you needed rescue, I probably would have postponed. I suspect it was President's Day weekend, and she was going to use the time to bag those peaks before she had to get back to the City and start trading again. Now she doesn't have to worry about that. :-(
Winter Storm Pandora ?

Quoting 99. hydrus:

More winter precip for folks who do not want anymore..


Quoting 90. sar2401:

I read that. What it tells me is that the criteria for this study was analogs of Bob, even though the deposition from Carol and 1938 were clearly visible and labeled as such in the core sample picture. If a storm didn't overwash into the pond, did it not show up in the deposited material? The 1938 hurricane, the most intense storm since 1635, passed within about 180 km west of Salt Pond, but that just wasn't close enough? One of the things I was trained to do was to look at baselines chosen for studies and see if they were the best ones in terms of the hypothesis. This all may be perfectly clear to a paleotempestologist, but it seems odd that you'd not choose the only real cat 3 hurricane that hit west of Salt Pond as your marker and use Bob instead.


Because Bob is the best documented with multiple confirmations of location, strength, overflow into the Salt Pond with photographic documentation, etc. Bob is the best analogue because there is hardly any uncertainty in regards to the metrics they are documenting. According to the research, no the 1938 storm did not seem to leave a "coarse event bed". That's not to say they weren't able to be measured by some other proxy, but in particular not this proxy.
could it be true chatter on the internet the australian version of the storm of the century could be brewing just e of australia the leftovers of lamb and another disturbance might combine and become a powerhouse.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I think the issue might be the "link button" isn't a very intuitive thing to find.
Done with the dishwasher, sweeping, and cleaning the counter tops. But, yes, you're right. Most modern web sites have software that detects what looks like a link and automatically add the code to make it clickable. Note I used the word modern there...
.69" so far in Longwood. Rain has been real heavy at times.
112. MahFL
Quoting 16. sar2401:

... why larger hurricanes would have only hit the NE coast...


The study did not say that, they said the NE had been hit by more larger hurricanes in the past compared to recently. Studies have been done in FL regarding Hurricane frequency.
113. bwi
Quoting 99. hydrus:

More winter precip for folks who do not want anymore..




Look at the precip totals for Eastern Massachusetts on 18z GFS -- that would be a lot of rain 2+ inches on top of a lot of snow I think.

100. wartsttocs

What I know about mountains .................... They will kill you if they get a chance. And they are mindless, so you better bring yours.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Close, or perhaps this:

"This study would find storms that were similar, or stronger, in intensity to Bob, and followed a relatively similar track to the west of the study location. Less intense historical events (minor tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, and more distal intense storms) would not have been identified in this study."

Your comment regarding chores made me think of Hi and Lois' job jar :)
That's me. I'm turning into a house husband at my age. Instead of playing with my radios or trains, I'm cleaning the kitchen. So much for that second childhood thing. :-)

OK, better summary, and even more troubling. If this study showed all these storms that just happened to go the right way and just happened to be big enough, how many 1944 and 1938 storms also occurred of which those sediments remained blissfully unaware? Just with the storms we know a lot about in the period from 1900 up until now, New England has been hit by a lot of cat 2 or near cat 2 storms, plus the biggies like 1938. What kinds of storms were the needed proxies for all the other studies? Is the supposed return rate now something like 8 years? 5? 3? And why wasn't something like your summary included in the abstract so we didn't have to spend all day getting to this point? I realize it reduces the entertainment value of the US being attacked by cat 3 hurricanes every 10 years but it would have been honest. That whole statement about cat 3 hurricanes really bothers me too. I can guess that Donnelly has some strong views about global warming but he's got to be careful not let that overwhelm what he says for shock effect to the media.
Quoting 113. bwi:



Look at the precip totals for Eastern Massachusetts on 18z GFS -- that would be a lot of rain 2+ inches on top of a lot of snow I think.

watch out for ice to for boston
HRRR model is showing the heaviest rains occurring across C FL between 11pm thru 4am as this strong short wave energy moves by to the north and there could some thunderstorms mixed in.
Hello,

I live in central California and as you know it hasn't rained much the past couple months. I was looking at the AccuWeather extended forecast and it showed a pretty large pattern change beginning around the 5th of March, and north and central California recieving rain for a few weeks after that.

I then looked at the the weather for Boston (as an indicator for the new England weather) and it showed the intense cold letting up around that time.
As it has been the past couple winters, cold east and dry west, because of the kinked jet stream.
I know it's hard to put much forecast confidence 3 weeks away, but I thought the East coast - west coast pattern change was prevelent and it wasn't just the wrest coast beginning too get rain, but a continental pattern shift.
Any thoughts?
Thanks
Quoting MahFL:


The study did not say that, they said the NE had been hit by more larger hurricanes in the past compared to recently. Studies have been done in FL regarding Hurricane frequency.
Yes, I see I misunderstood that part. Read my post #116 for what the study really said, however.
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR model is showing the heaviest rains occurring across C FL between 11pm thru 4am as this strong short wave energy moves by to the north and there could some thunderstorms mixed in.


more snow for east haven,conn to
Quoting Trouper415:
Hello,

I live in central California and as you know it hasn't rained much the past couple months. I was looking at the AccuWeather extended forecast and it showed a pretty large pattern change beginning around the 5th of March, and north and central California recieving rain for a few weeks after that.

I then looked at the the weather for Boston (as an indicator for the new England weather) and it showed the intense cold letting up around that time.
As it has been the past couple winters, cold east and dry west, because of the kinked jet stream.
I know it's hard to put much forecast confidence 3 weeks away, but I thought the East coast - west coast pattern change was prevelent and it wasn't just the wrest coast beginning too get rain, but a continental pattern shift.
Any thoughts?
Thanks
You're pretty much right on all counts. Until there's a continental pattern shift, the most probable forecast is nothing much changes. The pattern will shift. The models have no clue when that will happen. The models have very little clue what will happen in the next 5 days. I wish I could say it will start raining again California in March 5 and it will stop snowing in Boston. But I'd be lying. All we can do is watch.


i am getting ready for more snow on wednesday night!
Quoting Naga5000:


Because Bob is the best documented with multiple confirmations of location, strength, overflow into the Salt Pond with photographic documentation, etc. Bob is the best analogue because there is hardly any uncertainty in regards to the metrics they are documenting. According to the research, no the 1938 storm did not seem to leave a "coarse event bed". That's not to say they weren't able to be measured by some other proxy, but in particular not this proxy.


Take a look at #116 and let me know what you think.
Quoting 107. weatherlover94:

Winter Storm Pandora ?


It will Be like a Pandora if it takes the southern track..TWC said it may be a large long track system with a lot of energy.
126. bwi
Quoting 117. hurricanes2018:

watch out for ice to for boston


NWS is talking mixed precip for the weekend storm here in DC as well, but the surface freezing line is well north of us for most of the event, at least on this GFS run. If that verifies, it seems to me likely to be cold rain (which would be far preferable to freezing rain).
Quoting 123. hurricanes2018:



i am getting ready for more snow on wednesday night!


I will be in the lower 70's.
Quoting 109. islander101010:

could it be true chatter on the internet the australian version of the storm of the century could be brewing just e of australia the leftovers of lamb and another disturbance might combine and become a powerhouse.



I'd hardly call it call it as such just yet. Oz Cyclone Chasers thinks it'll (if a cyclone forms) landfall north of Gladstone as the Aussie equivalent of a category 1. It will, however, bring over 200 mm. of rain as well as higher king tides to parts of Queensland.


Link
Quoting 126. bwi:



NWS is talking mixed precip for the weekend storm here in DC as well, but the surface freezing line is well north of us for most of the event, at least on this GFS run. If that verifies, it seems to me likely to be cold rain (which would be far preferable to freezing rain).
I'm hering from some forecasters in the area that the models are underestimating the cold air mass.I'd rather have snow then ice and rain making a mess.
I would remind everyone Dr. Jennifer Francis is right. This deep loop in the jet stream has been in place for weeks .
It has been stuck for weeks, And it is exactly what she forecast.
131. bwi
Quoting 129. washingtonian115:

I'm hering from some forecasters in the area that the models are underestimating the cold air mass.I'd rather have snow then ice and rain making a mess.


snow good; rain whatever; sleet meh; freezing rain bad
133. MahFL
Quoting 19. Neapolitan:

Probably get an argument about that in Tacloban ..........




Infrastructure improvements would not have helped much in Tacloban, any force that moves ships inland is going to destroy even concrete buildings.
After the southern Snow storm, I was wondering, What are the opinions of "space savers" in the South? Those are lawnchairs or something that is used to mark your spot after you dug it out of snow in areas of New England that you have to park in the street.
violations are punished by keying a car, so slashing tires, to breaking windows depending on neighborhood and size of snowstorm.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
I would remind everyone Dr. Jennifer Francis is right. This deep loop in the jet stream has been in place for weeks .
It has been stuck for weeks, And it is exactly what she forecast.
Could you give her a call and ask her what she thinks the low will be for the next two days? I need to adjust the greenhouse heater.
Quoting 130. ColoradoBob1:

I would remind everyone Dr. Jennifer Francis is right. This deep loop in the jet stream has been in place for weeks .
It has been stuck for weeks, And it is exactly what she forecast.


I am really glad you brought that up. I learned about her work 4 years ago and shared it with family and friends. This week I asked many of them if they remember what I had e-mailed them years ago and how they think about it now. It was one of those "hey she told us" moments.
138. MahFL
Quoting 134. Methurricanes:

After the southern Snow storm, I was wondering, What are the opinions of "space savers" in the South? Those are lawnchairs or something that is used to mark your spot after you dug it out of snow in areas of New England that you have to park in the street.
violations are punished by keying a car, so slashing tires, to breaking windows depending on neighborhood and size of snowstorm.


Southern snow storms don't bury cars.
Winds up to 35 mph are going to do more damage to the trees here...Clipper system will drop another inch or two on this mess , pluss more chances of wintery precip until the end of the week...I, m ready for spring
Quoting 138. MahFL:



Southern snow storms don't bury cars.
Dont jinx us....i,m sure thats on the list somewhere
lostinohio ~ If you search your city in the box above in the upper right & then change your station to the nearest weather station. You can make that home by clicking the house next to the station name. Now look at the black bar on the top. All the way to the right that gear. Click on that and make sure it's selected to WeatherUnderground's Bestforecast (you can choose between that & NWS). Then the forecasts you see on the city forecast page should be WU generated for any weather station you are looking at. I find the one WU generates for my PWS on my roof is better than the one from the NWS that is less than 10 miles away. WU generated forecasts are for 10 days instead of for 7 days when generated by NWS.
NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston · 16m16 minutes ago
BREAKING NEWS: Boston/Logan reported 0.3" snow at 7 PM, bringing Feb total to 59.1". Season total: 96.3"! Tied for #2 snowiest!
ITS A TIE!! 11.3 before the Record of 107.6

Record breaking snow in Boston, but the Iditarod has the worst conditions ever.
Quoting 138. MahFL:



Southern snow storms don't bury cars.
Snowmaggedon in DC a few years back did, Baltimore gets big snows every so often. as does Richmond, all urban enough southern cities to need street parking.
The Maya left some accounts of devastating hurricanes in their region. On August 22, 583 CE they recorded a hurricane that left "mountains of skulls" and "pools of blood".

Bishop Diego de Landa in the 16th century reported a Maya account of a devastating hurricane greater than any known before in 1464 which may correspond to the "giant hurricane" which was the strongest to hit the Yucatan Peninsula in the past 5000 years. (section 5.2 of the article)

The Maya glyph for hurricane, a sky symbol with four wind symbols around it.
Quoting 133. MahFL:



Infrastructure improvements would not have helped much in Tacloban, any force that moves ships inland is going to destroy even concrete buildings.


That was me , and are a fool. And this is not an attack it is a statement of fact.
Quoting Methurricanes:
After the southern Snow storm, I was wondering, What are the opinions of "space savers" in the South? Those are lawnchairs or something that is used to mark your spot after you dug it out of snow in areas of New England that you have to park in the street.
violations are punished by keying a car, so slashing tires, to breaking windows depending on neighborhood and size of snowstorm.
We don't have any of that stuff down here. You park the pickup out back by the barn or in the lean-to next to the house. Any trouble, you buddy comes over in another pickup and uses a snatch block to pull you out. The only parking spaces we have are at Walmart, and they're ain't nobody down here that drives a lawn chair to Walmart. If we saw a lawn chair in a parking space, we'd throw it in the back of the pickup and drop it off at aunt Martha's double wide. She's always wanted a lawn chair.
148. beell
Quoting 122. sar2401:

You're pretty much right on all counts. Until there's a continental pattern shift, the most probable forecast is nothing much changes. The pattern will shift. The models have no clue when that will happen. The models have very little clue what will happen in the next 5 days. I wish I could say it will start raining again California in March 5 and it will stop snowing in Boston. But I'd be lying. All we can do is watch.





Both frames from today's Central Pacific 18Z GFS-500 mb height anomalies. Top valid at 00 hrs, bottom at 384 hrs. Translates to troughing over the western US. Who knows, we could still end up with an Omega over the central US-with both coasts getting sharply amplified troughs-but I would kind of doubt that scenario.

Sure it's a long way out but there may be a clue or two in there for the adventurous. Something that has not been seen in the extended range for what seems like..forever.
:)

Quoting 60. sar2401:

It's certainly not accurate for Alabama, and I don't think it's accurate for Mississippi in terms of snow. Since it's for yesterday evening at 6:00 pm CST, and the scale with the white/gray color is 0.39" and less, maybe it's extrapolated ice reports instead.

We ain't got no snow in Northern suburbs of Indianapolis! just sayin!

Quoting 124. sar2401:



Take a look at #116 and let me know what you think.


I think that the study is one piece of a proxy reconstruction of historical records, they use it in conjunction with other proxies to get a larger picture of what was happening. The sociologist in me would say the study needs to clarify exactly what it is measuring, and it does although not in nice summary form (this is most likely due to writing style within the journal/discipline). Yes, it will miss storms that did not create coarse event beds, and therefore likely underestimates the actual numbers. But that's okay as the proxy doesn't claim to catch all likely events. In fact, they do mention that

"the temporal patterns in event bed deposition may reflect changes in the
frequency of only the more intense storms that are capable of producing event beds"

"The last 350 years of sediment accumulation at Salt Pond indicates that only relatively intense hurricanes making a close landfall (~100 km) to the west of the site have left event beds. Given modest increases in sea level over the last 2000 years in the region [Donnelly, 1998](~2 m), the barrier fronting Salt Pond has likely transgressed landward with time, with recent historical shoreline retreat rates of ~10 m per century [Thieler, 2013]. As a result of this landward barrier translation, older event beds recorded in SP2 were likely transported greater distances than recent ones, which may point to even greater local intensities for prehistoric events relative to Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE"

and the fact they only get 35 storms from this proxy is documented.

I think you have a valid critique Sar, but I also think they have addressed most of your concerns and do not try to over represent what their study actually can say.

Where I agree with you completely is the press release of the study does not make these things clear. Usually the media coverage/press releases do not which in turn make people question the validity of the science since the releases and coverage are generally sensationalized.

In my opinion, the most important takeaways from this paper is 1) it's another proxy reconstruction that gets added the knowledge base 2) they managed to fit it in with other regional reconstructions giving us a better picture of what was happening on a larger scale and 3) with only 35 storms, they managed statistically significant correlations with other events like increased MDR SST's through other reconstructions.

In other words, it's a fantastically interesting puzzle piece, and it doesn't claim to represent the entire picture, BUT it does say the increases in frequency of these events seemed to be linked to MDR SST's and if we continue to see increases in ocean temperature due to global warming (all other things being equal) there should be a corresponding increase in these events. I don't think that's over the top.
Quoting 116. sar2401:

That's me. I'm turning into a house husband at my age. Instead of playing with my radios or trains, I'm cleaning the kitchen. So much for that second childhood thing. :-)

OK, better summary, and even more troubling. If this study showed all these storms that just happened to go the right way and just happened to be big enough, how many 1944 and 1938 storms also occurred of which those sediments remained blissfully unaware? Just with the storms we know a lot about in the period from 1900 up until now, New England has been hit by a lot of cat 2 or near cat 2 storms, plus the biggies like 1938. What kinds of storms were the needed proxies for all the other studies? Is the supposed return rate now something like 8 years? 5? 3? And why wasn't something like your summary included in the abstract so we didn't have to spend all day getting to this point? I realize it reduces the entertainment value of the US being attacked by cat 3 hurricanes every 10 years but it would have been honest. That whole statement about cat 3 hurricanes really bothers me too. I can guess that Donnelly has some strong views about global warming but he's got to be careful not let that overwhelm what he says for shock effect to the media.

Yes, I think it's very possible near Cat 2s were not 'seen'. Regarding Cat 2s, if they were similar to Bob, and could transport coarse sediment like Bob did, they would have been identified. So other 1938-like storms would not have been included in their count.

Regarding the other studies...geez, sar...I haven't read those...

Regarding return interval - I don't know where 'decade' comes from, nor do I know where 8/5/3 years comes from. From reading through that section of the paper, and looking at the graphs, there are periods where 4 'intense' storms per century occurred (pre-history), whereas they identified 3 'intense' storms in the last 380 years. There's a discussion of calculated changes in event frequency in Section 3.1.3. Perhaps his 'decade' comment came from the suggestion that identified storms in prehistory could have been stronger than Bob and the 1600s storms, due to the additional distance to transport the coarse sediment...I don't know. *shrugs*

Maybe ScottLincoln or schistkicker can weigh in on the return intervals...

I think the whole discussion regarding event bed attribution was necessary, to be honest, because not everyone has the background to grasp it quickly. However, it's relatively straight forward for geologists and academics. (So, in that case, including my statement in the abstract would be wholly unnecessary.)

I think the Cat 3 follows from the idea of Bob 'or stronger', and acknowledging older storms had to have more 'oomph' to transport the sediment further.

The discussion of potential affects of warming are discussed in the climatic forcings and conclusions sections, but all statements are extremely well-cited. There is discussion of what different studies have shown, as well as what is not known. It read as a very-unbiased set of conclusions. But how does one present a study that has several layers and implications to the public at large? I guess it's a 'bottom line' type of deal...

Quoting 144. Methurricanes:

Snowmaggedon in DC a few years back did, Baltimore gets big snows every so often. as does Richmond, all urban enough southern cities to need street parking.


Guess then it depends on your definition of "southern snow". As a Charlotte resident theres no way I'd consider DC or Baltimore "southern". Richmond, I'll give you that one. But car-burying storms are rare in Richmond, and very rare here in NC. Have lived in NC the past 15 years and only seen anything like that once
Quoting Naga5000:


I think that the study is one piece of a proxy reconstruction of historical records, they use it in conjunction with other proxies to get a larger picture of what was happening. The sociologist in me would say the study needs to clarify exactly what it is measuring, and it does although not in nice summary form (this is most likely due to writing style within the journal/discipline). Yes, it will miss storms that did not create coarse event beds, and therefore likely underestimates the actual numbers. But that's okay as the proxy doesn't claim to catch all likely events. In fact, they do mention that

"the temporal patterns in event bed deposition may reflect changes in the
frequency of only the more intense storms that are capable of producing event beds"

"The last 350 years of sediment accumulation at Salt Pond indicates that only relatively intense hurricanes making a close landfall (~100 km) to the west of the site have left event beds. Given modest increases in sea level over the last 2000 years in the region [Donnelly, 1998](~2 m), the barrier fronting Salt Pond has likely transgressed landward with time, with recent historical shoreline retreat rates of ~10 m per century [Thieler, 2013]. As a result of this landward barrier translation, older event beds recorded in SP2 were likely transported greater distances than recent ones, which may point to even greater local intensities for prehistoric events relative to Hurricane Bob in 1991 CE"

and the fact they only get 35 storms from this proxy is documented.

I think you have a valid critique Sar, but I also think they have addressed most of your concerns and do not try to over represent what their study actually can say.

Where I agree with you completely is the press release of the study does not make these things clear. Usually the media coverage/press releases do not which in turn make people question the validity of the science since the releases and coverage are generally sensationalized.

In my opinion, the most important takeaways from this paper is 1) it's another proxy reconstruction that gets added the knowledge base 2) they managed to fit it in with other regional reconstructions giving us a better picture of what was happening on a larger scale and 3) with only 35 storms, they managed statistically significant correlations with other events like increased MDR SST's through other reconstructions.

In other words, it's a fantastically interesting puzzle piece, and it doesn't claim to represent the entire picture, BUT it does say the increases in frequency of these events seemed to be linked to MDR SST's and if we continue to see increases in ocean temperature due to global warming (all other things being equal) there should be a corresponding increase in these events. I don't think that's over the top.
That seems like a reasonable summary, although I still have to wonder why Bob was the only hurricane in 300 years to deposit the layer they wanted in Salt Pond. It also begs the question of how 35 storms in about 2,000 years translates into a return period of every 10 years. Is there some fudge factor for the storms they have a pretty good idea they missed? Why did Donnelly feel moved (assuming he was correctly quoted) to even talk about cat 3's hitting the coast every 10 years when the study says no such thing? The tinfoil hat crowd is going to jump all over that to discredit what's at least, as you say, a piece of the puzzle. There are times when a teleprompter's not a bad thing. :-)
Quoting 152. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Guess then it depends on your definition of "southern snow". As a Charlotte resident theres no way I'd consider DC or Baltimore "southern". Richmond, I'll give you that one. But car-burying storms are rare in Richmond, and very rare here in NC. Have lived in NC the past 15 years and only seen anything like that once
whos knows maybe ya will see it twice
Quoting 141. Skyepony:

lostinohio ~ If you search your city in the box above in the upper right & then change your station to the nearest weather station. You can make that home by clicking the house next to the station name. Now look at the black bar on the top. All the way to the right that gear. Click on that and make sure it's selected to WeatherUnderground's Bestforecast (you can choose between that & NWS). Then the forecasts you see on the city forecast page should be WU generated for any weather station you are looking at. I find the one WU generates for my PWS on my roof is better than the one from the NWS that is less than 10 miles away. WU generated forecasts are for 10 days instead of for 7 days when generated by NWS.

This does not work for me. I exchanged several posts with sar about this weeks/months ago. I just tried it now to make sure it still didn't work. I selected a close-by PWS, hit the home icon, closed, re-opened, and it re-set itself to a PWS that's no where near me. Same city/parish, but not close. It's a bit of an improvement from weeks/months ago, when it kept defaulting to a town in another parish. I emailed the site back then, but didn't hear anything back.

It used to work, but a while back it just stopped, and kept defaulting to somewhere else. Neither of the default PWSs are ones I've ever clicked on, either.

Any insight you have would be helpful and appreciated.
Quoting 145. BaltimoreBrian:

The Maya left some accounts of devastating hurricanes in their region. On August 22, 583 CE they recorded a hurricane that left "mountains of skulls" and "pools of blood".

Bishop Diego de Landa in the 16th century reported a Maya account of a devastating hurricane greater than any known before in 1464 which may correspond to the "giant hurricane" which was the strongest to hit the Yucatan Peninsula in the past 5000 years.

The Maya glyph for hurricane, a sky symbol with four wind symbols around it.




And they were cutting every tree to cook limestone to make plaster for their buildings , never forget every building they ever built, was covered in plaster. All that took charcoal. Huge amounts of trees. To cook limestone to make plaster.

Nobody in the modern world has got their head around this.

The Maya had a 2 for 1 . We cut the forest to make plaster, we get more land for corn.
Quoting 144. Methurricanes:

Snowmaggedon in DC a few years back did, Baltimore gets big snows every so often. as does Richmond, all urban enough southern cities to need street parking.
Funny thing here in D.C we don't consider ourselves southerns and don't like to associate with them (I don't mean that in a bad way).If you ask a young person in D.C do they think they're a northern or southern they'll say northern.We're a southern city with a northern way of thinking and operating.For example northern V.A just across the water is way more different then southern V.A where life is slower and more laid back.
Quoting 152. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Guess then it depends on your definition of "southern snow". As a Charlotte resident theres no way I'd consider DC or Baltimore "southern". Richmond, I'll give you that one. But car-burying storms are rare in Richmond, and very rare here in NC. Have lived in NC the past 15 years and only seen anything like that once
Isn't the Mason-Dixon line the de facto North-South Border? so Philly is the southern extent of the North, While Baltimore is the start of the South.
Quoting 158. Methurricanes:

Isn't the Mason-Dixon line the de facto North-South Border? so Philly is the southern extent of the North, While Baltimore is the start of the South.


Quoting 152. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Guess then it depends on your definition of "southern snow". As a Charlotte resident theres no way I'd consider DC or Baltimore "southern". Richmond, I'll give you that one. But car-burying storms are rare in Richmond, and very rare here in NC. Have lived in NC the past 15 years and only seen anything like that once

LOL - my thoughts exactly. When I lived in New England, I considered VA to be the South, and some people considered MD to be. Now that I live in South Louisiana, I no longer really view VA or even perhaps TN as the South. I know people that would not include Arkansas or North Carolina, either, and have heard people from these states referred to as yankees :)

Kind of blew my mind at first. It's all relative...
162. beell
Quoting 158. Methurricanes:

Isn't the Mason-Dixon line the de facto North-South Border? so Philly is the southern extent of the North, While Baltimore is the start of the South.


If you have spent any time at all in southern Louisiana, anything north of I-10 is "northern". Or way down in south Louisiana, it's the intracoastal waterway.



Quoting 157. washingtonian115:

Funny thing here in D.C we don't consider ourselves southerns and don't like to associate with them (I don't mean that in a bad way).If you ask a young person in D.C do they think they're a northern or southern they'll say northern.We're a southern city with a northern way of thinking and operating.For example northern V.A just across the water is way more different then southern V.A where life is slower and more laid back.
Only because of the War of Northern Aggression, which by logical standards should never repeat. Forget Hacking - CIA Accuses Russia Of "Manipulating The World's Weather"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2015 - 16:30

America appears to have found something else to blame the Russians (or North Koreans) for... The Weather. As The Daily Mail reports, CIA chiefs fear hostile nations are trying to manipulate the world’s climate... seriously. So don't just believe the hype, or do, after all it is your decision to make for now. Sounds like double disinformation to me. Ask me aboot triple disinformation. It gets more complicated after the next stages. One thing we can count on is a beautiful spring up north, unless you live in certain places. Not really a surprise there.
As far as I'm concerned, anyone north of Georgia is a northerner.
-or-
If you get to see snow every 2-4 years.

No-good-closed-shoe-wearin' Yankees, tossin' perfectly good lawn chairs around city streets - -

:)
anything north of I-10 is "northern".

Preach it, Brutha Beell! Preach it!

Can I get an AMEN??
Quoting 153. sar2401:

That seems like a reasonable summary, although I still have to wonder why Bob was the only hurricane in 300 years to deposit the layer they wanted in Salt Pond. It also begs the question of how 35 storms in about 2,000 years translates into a return period of every 10 years. Is there some fudge factor for the storms they have a pretty good idea they missed? Why did Donnelly feel moved (assuming he was correctly quoted) to even talk about cat 3's hitting the coast every 10 years when the study says no such thing? The tinfoil hat crowd is going to jump all over that to discredit what's at least, as you say, a piece of the puzzle. There are times when a teleprompter's not a bad thing. :-)


I think your focusing on the wrong thing about Bob. Bob is the best documented as far as verifiable certainty regarding location, strength, etc. AND it is the most likely candidate for that particular coarse event bed which makes it ideal for a baseline for reconstructing the data. We know the most about Bob, while we only know some things about the others.

As for the comments, I'm in agreement with you, the other reconstructions do not support the assertion of a cat 3 per decade in the Northeast, and yes that hyperbole designed to be attention grabbing will get flak from the "skeptics", which is where we come full circle. They need to actually read the study and not rely on press releases and blurb quotes. But i bet the odds of that happening are worse than the odds of a cat 3 per decade. :)

Quoting 150. Naga5000:

(snip)

In other words, it's a fantastically interesting puzzle piece...

(snip)

Excellent summary, Naga. And I agree, 'it's a fantastically interesting puzzle piece'
Maya hurricane glyph. The center is a sky symbol. The four mouths with a tongue each represent wind---wind blowing from four directions.

Nearby Weather Stations 7:59 PM EST on February 17, 2015
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
15.4 °F
DopplerDon.com
15.4 °F
Rock Hill
17.0 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
21.7 °F
Foxon
16.7 °F
East Haven Town Beach
19.0 °F
east haven morgan point
18.5 °F
maybe more snow for the northeast on wednesday night
Quoting LAbonbon:

Yes, I think it's very possible near Cat 2s were not 'seen'. Regarding Cat 2s, if they were similar to Bob, and could transport coarse sediment like Bob did, they would have been identified. So other 1938-like storms would not have been included in their count.

Regarding the other studies...geez, sar...I haven't read those...

Regarding return interval - I don't know where 'decade' comes from, nor do I know where 8/5/3 years comes from. From reading through that section of the paper, and looking at the graphs, there are periods where 4 'intense' storms per century occurred (pre-history), whereas they identified 3 'intense' storms in the last 380 years. There's a discussion of calculated changes in event frequency in Section 3.1.3. Perhaps his 'decade' comment came from the suggestion that identified storms in prehistory could have been stronger than Bob and the 1600s storms, due to the additional distance to transport the coarse sediment...I don't know. *shrugs*

Maybe ScottLincoln or schistkicker can weigh in on the return intervals...

I think the whole discussion regarding event bed attribution was necessary, to be honest, because not everyone has the background to grasp it quickly. However, it's relatively straight forward for geologists and academics. (So, in that case, including my statement in the abstract would be wholly unnecessary.)

I think the Cat 3 follows from the idea of Bob 'or stronger', and acknowledging older storms had to have more 'oomph' to transport the sediment further.

The discussion of potential affects of warming are discussed in the climatic forcings and conclusions sections, but all statements are extremely well-cited. There is discussion of what different studies have shown, as well as what is not known. It read as a very-unbiased set of conclusions. But how does one present a study that has several layers and implications to the public at large? I guess it's a 'bottom line' type of deal...

And there you have the absolute crux, the heart of the matter. It's not 1975, and the study isn't being published just so Donnelly's colleagues can read it. At least at the abstract level, studies today are being read by lots of "civilians", some wanting to learn and some wanting to discredit. What's written, how it's written, and how it will play in Peoria are all more important than ever. I don't know if some scientists feel it some sort of sell out to tailor an abstract for another audience but, if so, they need to get over it.

As for the decades remark, it came directly from Donnelly's mouth, assuming the news release quoted him correctly.

"In a press release, Donnelly said, “We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”

Do you think that's a fair representation of what the study said? I don't, and, if it's not, why say it? The 8, 5 and 3 year question was, if the study said that a Bob is going to come every 10 years, and we know the study missed a lot of non-Bob but still significant storms like 1938, what would the real return period be? Assuming the 10 years was ever right, it has to a lot less when you include the non-Bob's.

Finally, did you look at the picture of the guys taking the core sample and their drilling "platform"? Are my eyes deceiving me or is that a piece of plywood between two canoes lashed together? The nearest canoe appears to have a freeboard of about an inch - tops. Anything higher than a light breeze and someone's going in the drink. Thank goodness they get all that big grant money for the luxury drill platform though. :-)
Quoting 163. Pallis1:

Only because of the War of Northern Aggression, which by logical standards should never repeat. Forget Hacking - CIA Accuses Russia Of "Manipulating The World's Weather"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2015 - 16:30

America appears to have found something else to blame the Russians (or North Koreans) for... The Weather. As The Daily Mail reports, CIA chiefs fear hostile nations are trying to manipulate the world’s climate... seriously. So don't just believe the hype, or do, after all it is your decision to make for now. Sounds like double disinformation to me. Ask me aboot triple disinformation. It gets more complicated after the next stages. One thing we can count on is a beautiful spring up north, unless you live in certain places. Not really a surprise there.
I stopped reading after War of. Northern Aggression.
Quoting 164. aquak9:

As far as I'm concerned, anyone north of Georgia is a northerner.
-or-
If you get to see snow every 2-4 years.

No-good-closed-shoe-wearin' Yankees, tossin' perfectly good lawn chairs around city streets - -

:)
Granny told me anyone born North of Sarasota, or maybe Bradenton (after some reflection), was a Yankee, and should not be trusted! Still works for me, even though I have friends from the entire world. Got to set boundaries for society!
174. beell
Quoting 165. aquak9:

anything north of I-10 is "northern".

Preach it, Brutha Beell! Preach it!

Can I get an AMEN??


Amen, doggie
This is the hurricane symbol by the Taino of Cuba. Quite good in my opinion.

Quoting 142. Methurricanes:

NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston · 16m16 minutes ago
BREAKING NEWS: Boston/Logan reported 0.3" snow at 7 PM, bringing Feb total to 59.1". Season total: 96.3"! Tied for #2 snowiest!
ITS A TIE!! 11.3 before the Record of 107.6




Quoting 144. Methurricanes:

Snowmaggedon in DC a few years back did, Baltimore gets big snows every so often. as does Richmond, all urban enough southern cities to need street parking.


The February 1973 snowstorm brought close to 20" in central GA and up to 2 feet in southern South Carolina. The February 1895 snowstorm brought 30" to Beaumont TX on the coast. That would bury cars.
Quoting 130. ColoradoBob1:

I would remind everyone Dr. Jennifer Francis is right. This deep loop in the jet stream has been in place for weeks .
It has been stuck for weeks, And it is exactly what she forecast.

Just remember that Dr. Francis' work is about a change evident over a climatic timeframe - that is, it's a trend that was hypothesized and was then verified to be occurring when looking at model re-analysis data. You have to be careful to take one instance of a blocking pattern to be "exactly what [Francis] forecast." Such an instance is an example of weather; it may be consistent with an expected climatic trend but isn't really a forecast.
Quoting 171. sar2401:

And there you have the absolute crux, the heart of the matter. It's not 1975, and the study isn't being published just so Donnelly's colleagues can read it. At least at the abstract level, studies today are being read by lots of "civilians", some wanting to learn and some wanting to discredit. What's written, how it's written, and how it will play in Peoria are all more important than ever. I don't know if some scientists feel it some sort of sell out to tailor an abstract for another audience but, if so, they need to get over it.

As for the decades remark, it came directly from Donnelly's mouth, assuming the news release quoted him correctly.

"In a press release, Donnelly said, “We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate. We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.”

Do you think that's a fair representation of what the study said? I don't, and, if it's not, why say it? The 8, 5 and 3 year question was, if the study said that a Bob is going to come every 10 years, and we know the study missed a lot of non-Bob but still significant storms like 1938, what would the real return period be? Assuming the 10 years was ever right, it has to a lot less when you include the non-Bob's.

Finally, did you look at the picture of the guys taking the core sample and their drilling "platform"? Are my eyes deceiving me or is that a piece of plywood between two canoes lashed together? The nearest canoe appears to have a freeboard of about an inch - tops. Anything higher than a light breeze and someone's going in the drink. Thank goodness they get all that big grant money for the luxury drill platform though. :-)

I know it came from Donnelly's press release...I don't necessarily know where he got it, but I made a guess/supposition in my previous post.

You're (I think) assuming 1938, for that location, was as strong, or stronger than Bob. It wasn't, in terms of coarse sediment transport. It was looking at Salt Pond only. If they moved the study west enough, maybe 1938 would be a marker event bed, and Bob would have 'fallen out' and not been counted. But I understand what you are saying about the return period.

As to the audience...first and foremost it's their peers and the academic community. Then it's a greater audience. I think the press release is an attempt to reach out. I think it's overall written so most anybody would understand. The 'decade' comment has us wondering a bit, understandably. But the rest is pretty straight forward, IMHO.

The coring - I've collected lots of cores in my time, and rigged up some pretty rudimentary setups. All that matters is that it works. Why go high-dollar if you don't have to?
Poll: Which Native American symbol for hurricane is better?

The Maya



Or the Taino of Cuba?



I like the Taino symbol better.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Isn't the Mason-Dixon line the de facto North-South Border? so Philly is the southern extent of the North, While Baltimore is the start of the South.


Nah, Maryland is a Northern state in my opinion. It's accustomed to snow, and it's a developed blue state.
Quoting 181. wxgeek723:

Nah, Maryland is a Northern state in my opinion. It's accustomed to snow, and it's a developed blue state.

We're # 1!

Every Mayan temple was covered for hundreds of years with a plaster made from limestone, made from the forest around them. You cook limestone to make lime. Lime makes plaster. Wood makes charcoal. Charcoal bakes limestone.

In the beginning this cycle ain't a big deal, but these kings when crazy A cyclone was just a foot note at the end.

These people stuck sting ray barbs in their foreskins to get in touch with the Gods. And their queens did the same thing. You bled on a paper , then you lite it on fire. The smoke would take man's message to the Gods.

Only kings and queens did this. Everyone else cut down trees , and hauled rocks.
#180 - Baltimore Brian - both are cool, but got to go w/ the Maya
Quoting Naga5000:


I think your focusing on the wrong thing about Bob. Bob is the best documented as far as verifiable certainty regarding location, strength, etc. AND it is the most likely candidate for that particular coarse event bed which makes it ideal for a baseline for reconstructing the data. We know the most about Bob, while we only know some things about the others.

As for the comments, I'm in agreement with you, the other reconstructions do not support the assertion of a cat 3 per decade in the Northeast, and yes that hyperbole designed to be attention grabbing will get flak from the "skeptics", which is where we come full circle. They need to actually read the study and not rely on press releases and blurb quotes. But i bet the odds of that happening are worse than the odds of a cat 3 per decade. :)

No, I don't think I am with Bob. The study makes it pretty clear that only a storm with the path of Bob and at least the strength of Bob is going to lay down enough material for the cores to find it. According to the authors, even the 1938 hurricane, at 180 kilometers to the west, wasn't strong enough to leave a depositional layer, but Bob, although weaker, at 100 kilometers west, was. That makes Bob a pretty important guy. It's kind of like me saying I'm going to study prehistoric hurricanes on the Gulf Coast but whatever my equipment is only sensitive enough to detect at least a cat 2 and it has to make landfall within 100 km east of Mobile Bay. Actually, it would have to be right in the middle of Mobile Bay. No, too far over...that might raise a few questions, I think.

Yes, I think Donnelly's statement quoted in the blog qualifies as pure hyperbole. It will get him lots of quotes. However, it's also going to get a lot of questions from people who do read studies - like me. Is that what we want? How about we have two abstracts. One can be for all the scientists. The other can be for the non-scientists. Look, Naga, you're a sociologist. Read the paragraph you quoted from the study in #150. Even though you're a "soft" science guy who gets hooted at by all the "hard" science guys, you've learned a lot about their game. Do you think there's any chance in God's green earth that you could rewrite that paragraph in a way that one of the pickup truck guys down here might actually understand it? This is not a battle for science. Except for exactly what will happen and when, the science behind global warming is pretty clear to those who would understand. This is a battle for hearts and minds, and we can't win it by being obtuse. If the guys who did the study can't write in clear expositional English, send it out to someone like you that can. And for heavens sake, zip your lip when you're about to go overboard. :-)
Quoting 151. LAbonbon:


Regarding return interval - I don't know where 'decade' comes from, nor do I know where 8/5/3 years comes from. From reading through that section of the paper, and looking at the graphs, there are periods where 4 'intense' storms per century occurred (pre-history), whereas they identified 3 'intense' storms in the last 380 years. There's a discussion of calculated changes in event frequency in Section 3.1.3. Perhaps his 'decade' comment came from the suggestion that identified storms in prehistory could have been stronger than Bob and the 1600s storms, due to the additional distance to transport the coarse sediment...I don't know. *shrugs*

Maybe ScottLincoln or schistkicker can weigh in on the return intervals...


I have not read much about the paper in question but have seen some of the discussion on it.

With regards to average recurrence interval (ARI), a relatively modern term I prefer over the similar terms "return period" or "return interval", there are a few things that people frequently misunderstand.
1) The value corresponds to a long term average, and should not be used as some sort of expectation of when an event will occur. Comments like "we are overdue" are not warranted when discussing an ARI; one needs to look at the underlying physical mechanisms which will provide better information to use in forecasting events.
2) The majority of the time something is assigned a "return period" or ARI, the chance of occurance is independent, or near independent, from surrounding years. So just because you had a "100 year" (1% chance) flood last year doesn't mean that you chance is reduced this year.
3) The most extreme (most rare) part of an event is often very isolated and not experienced by the vast majority of persons who think that they experienced it. Here's an example to illustrate. Summer, 1993, in the midwest. Most of the state of Iowa experienced heavy rainfall and most rivers experienced decent river rises. A few locations, on a few rivers, had conditions that were classified as "100-year" or greater events. Probably 10% or fewer people actually experienced flooding of that magnitude (the 100 year or 500 year in the hardest hit areas) but many will calibrate to the event as if they had experienced such an event. Not to say that they didn't experience flooding, but they didn't experience the 100 year or greater. Another example: see Fig 10 in this paper. That event was a particularly significant event for the southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi area and almost everyone in the area recalls it and discusses how bad it was. Yet if you look at the rainfall ARI analysis, only small portions of 3 counties experienced 1000-year (0.1% chance) event and most events I've studied have a much smaller spatial coverage of the maximum.

Does any of that help?

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Poll: Which Native American symbol for hurricane is better?

The Maya



Or the Taino of Cuba?



I like the Taino symbol better.
Well, Taino looks more like a hurricane, so he'd make a better hieroglyph. The Maya guy looks a lot scarier though. Tough choice...
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Every Mayan temple was covered for hundreds of years with a plaster made from limestone, made from the forest around them. You cook limestone to make lime. Lime makes plaster. Wood makes charcoal. Charcoal bakes limestone.

In the beginning this cycle ain't a big deal, but these kings when crazy A cyclone was just a foot note at the end.

These people stuck sting ray barbs in their foreskins to get in touch with the Gods. And their queens did the same thing. You bled on a paper , then you lite it on fire. The smoke would take man's message to the Gods.

Only kings and queens did this. Everyone else cut down trees , and hauled rocks.
Bob, I don't know what you're smoking tonight but it must be terrific! :-)
Quoting 180. BaltimoreBrian:

Poll: Which Native American symbol for hurricane is better?

The Maya



Or the Taino of Cuba?



I like the Taino symbol better.
Maya have other symbols for that. Taino is spread out over 1000 miles of influence. Timeline, unknown. Add, subtract coastline at current sea level. Swastika is the first. It was Buddhist thousands of years after Native Americans carved it into rocks. I doubt they called it a Swastika though, because in recent(last 1100 years or so, until present day) we called it the 4 winds.
Quoting 181. wxgeek723:



Nah, Maryland is a Northern state in my opinion. It's accustomed to snow, and it's a developed blue state.
Don't forget the half diamond shape indented land surrounded by most of M.D and some of V.A.
Quoting 164. aquak9:

As far as I'm concerned, anyone north of Georgia is a northerner.
-or-
If you get to see snow every 2-4 years.

No-good-closed-shoe-wearin' Yankees, tossin' perfectly good lawn chairs around city streets - -

:)



There's more than one way to define the South. One is their ability (or lack thereof) to handle winter weather and treating one inch of snow like the apocalypse (Atlanta looking like a scene out of the walking dead last year). :O)
Quoting 190. washingtonian115:

Don't forget the half diamond shape indented land surrounded by most of M.D and some of V.A.
You do know that there are alligators in the rivers now!!! Global swarming.
Quoting 188. sar2401:

Bob, I don't know what you're smoking tonight but it must be terrific! :-)


Well, he is from Colorado so yeah.
ScottLincoln which symbol for hurricane do you like better? Since you're a meteorologist.
Quoting 180. BaltimoreBrian:

Poll: Which Native American symbol for hurricane is better?

The Maya



Or the Taino of Cuba?



I like the Taino symbol better.



The Taino one's better.
Every great empire from the past is a scam. That's is why we all suffer, we are kings now.
Quoting 160. LAbonbon:


LOL - my thoughts exactly. When I lived in New England, I considered VA to be the South, and some people considered MD to be. Now that I live in South Louisiana, I no longer really view VA or even perhaps TN as the South. I know people that would not include Arkansas or North Carolina, either, and have heard people from these states referred to as yankees :)

Kind of blew my mind at first. It's all relative...



One of my geography books puts St. Louis and Pittsburgh as part of the "inland south". Ah shure don't sound lak a sutherner... y'all.
Quoting 196. ColoradoBob1:

Every great empire from the past is a scam. That's is why we all suffer, we are kings now.
Wow, ok (walks quickly away)
Quoting 196. ColoradoBob1:

Every great empire from the past is a scam. That's is why we all suffer, we are kings now.



Uhhh.... what?
Quoting Methurricanes:
I stopped reading after War of. Northern Aggression.
That's one reason you'll never understand the South. The War of Northern Aggression is only one name for that unpleasantness. There's the War for Southern Independence, the War of Separation, the Second Revolution, the War for Southern Rights, The Yankee Invasion, The Lost Cause. There are more but you get the picture. I'm only a Southerner by adoption but I understand the effect the war had on the South, and especially the aftermath. Down here, the war will live on forever.
Quoting 159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:







The South could also be defined based on their political leanings too. They're also heavily religious.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Every great empire from the past is a scam. That's is why we all suffer, we are kings now.
Seriously, can you pass some of that around instead of hogging it all yourself...
Quoting 201. sar2401:

That's one reason you'll never understand the South. The War of Northern Aggression is only one name for that unpleasantness. There's the War for Southern Independence, the War of Separation, the Second Revolution, the War for Southern Rights, The Yankee Invasion, The Lost Cause. There are more but you get the picture. I'm only a Southerner by adoption but I understand the effect the war had on the South, and especially the aftermath. Down here, the war will live on forever.



The civil war battles are named differently too. For example, southerners call the Battle of Bull Run the Battle of Manassas.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



The South could also be defined based on their political leanings too. They're also heavily religious.
The South is easily defined. There are only 11 states that qualify -

South Carolina
Mississippi
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Texas
Virginia
Arkansas
North Carolina
Tennessee

These are the states of the Confederacy. There no other Southern states. There are other states in the south, but it's not the same.
maybe more snow in the northeast on wednesday night
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



The civil war battles are named differently too. For example, southerners call the Battle of Bull Run the Battle of Manassas.
Yes, and the Merrimac, of Monitor and Merrimac fame, is the CSS Virginia. That kind of thing is touchy down here.
Quoting 186. ScottLincoln:


I have not read much about the paper in question but have seen some of the discussion on it.

With regards to average recurrence interval (ARI), a relatively modern term I prefer over the similar terms "return period" or "return interval", there are a few things that people frequently misunderstand.
1) The value corresponds to a long term average, and should not be used as some sort of expectation of when an event will occur. Comments like "we are overdue" are not warranted when discussing an ARI; one needs to look at the underlying physical mechanisms which will provide better information to use in forecasting events.
2) The majority of the time something is assigned a "return period" or ARI, the chance of occurance is independent, or near independent, from surrounding years. So just because you had a "100 year" (1% chance) flood last year doesn't mean that you chance is reduced this year.
3) The most extreme (most rare) part of an event is often very isolated and not experienced by the vast majority of persons who think that they experienced it. Here's an example to illustrate. Summer, 1993, in the midwest. Most of the state of Iowa experienced heavy rainfall and most rivers experienced decent river rises. A few locations, on a few rivers, had conditions that were classified as "100-year" or greater events. Probably 10% or fewer people actually experienced flooding of that magnitude (the 100 year or 500 year in the hardest hit areas) but many will calibrate to the event as if they had experienced such an event. Not to say that they didn't experience flooding, but they didn't experience the 100 year or greater. Another example: see Fig 10 in this paper. That event was a particularly significant event for the southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi area and almost everyone in the area recalls it and discusses how bad it was. Yet if you look at the rainfall ARI analysis, only small portions of 3 counties experienced 1000-year (0.1% chance) event and most events I've studied have a much smaller spatial coverage of the maximum.

Does any of that help?



Actually, Scott - I'm aware of these points. I appreciate you taking the time and posting them, and for sharing your paper :P

The discussion in the paper is not nearly so straightforward as your summary just was. They discuss it in sections 2.6 (Methods) and 3.1.3 (Results). Here is 3.1.3:

"3.1.3 Changes in event frequency
The Salt Pond record indicates considerable changes in the frequency of event beds over the
last 2000 years, with historically unprecedented intervals of event-bed deposition. A total of
thirty-five event layers were deposited over the last 2000 years (Figs. 2a and 3a); the highest
frequencies were reached at 1420-1675 CE (10 event beds, #2-11) and 150-1150 CE (23
event beds, #13-35). Assuming hurricane landfall occurrence follows a Poisson process we
can estimate the probability of exceeding the number of events expected by random chance
alone. For example, using 0.9 events per century as the expected rate (λ) (derived from the
162-year NOAA Best Track Dataset, Supplementary Fig. 4), the probability of experiencing three or more events in any one century is 0.06 (6%). Several intervals in the 4th to 7th centuries, 11th century, and 15th to early 17th centuries exceed this frequency (Fig. 3a). The
probability of experiencing one or more events in any one century is 0.6 (60%). However, the
probability of experiencing ten consecutive centuries with one or more events per century, as
recorded at Salt Pond between ca. 150 and 1150 CE, is quite low at 0.006 (0.6%). Similarly,
the probability of experiencing two or more events in two consecutive centuries, as
reconstructed in Salt Pond between ca. 1440 and 1640 CE (Fig. 3a), is only 0.04 (4%), and in
fact event bed frequency exceeds three events per century through most of this interval.
Hence, compared to modern event frequencies in the region, significant portions of the 2,000
year Salt Pond record exceed what would be expected based on random event occurrence
alone."

The original question was, where did the 'decade' comment come from? I made a stab/guess at it in an earlier post, but would love to hear your thoughts, if you have time to read the study. If not, no worries :)
Quoting 206. DarrellD:

Complete BS.
Lol.Wha?
Quoting 160. LAbonbon:


LOL - my thoughts exactly. When I lived in New England, I considered VA to be the South, and some people considered MD to be. Now that I live in South Louisiana, I no longer really view VA or even perhaps TN as the South. I know people that would not include Arkansas or North Carolina, either, and have heard people from these states referred to as yankees :)

Kind of blew my mind at first. It's all relative...
Just protection against perpetrating carpetbaggers and foul weather. It actually works both ways. When you go up North, there is a good ole' boy system to drive you back home. ESA’s Swarm mission should clear up boundaries, hopefully.
I wish. I could. Make really. Pithy comments.

But I can't, darn it. :-)
#206 - not a very nice first post
Quoting 214. LAbonbon:

#206 - not a very nice first post
lets see what the second post says
Quoting 215. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets see what the second post says

If you ran a pool I think I could clean up
Quoting 211. Pallis1:

Just protection against perpetrating carpetbaggers and foul weather. It actually works both ways. When you go up North, there is a good ole' boy system to drive you back home. ESA’s Swarm mission should clear up boundaries, hopefully.

Not sure I should ask, Pallis, but what's the ESA Swarm mission?
Quoting 201. sar2401:

That's one reason you'll never understand the South. The War of Northern Aggression is only one name for that unpleasantness. There's the War for Southern Independence, the War of Separation, the Second Revolution, the War for Southern Rights, The Yankee Invasion, The Lost Cause. There are more but you get the picture. I'm only a Southerner by adoption but I understand the effect the war had on the South, and especially the aftermath. Down here, the war will live on forever.
ya but now you all live as one

Quoting 185. sar2401:

No, I don't think I am with Bob. The study makes it pretty clear that only a storm with the path of Bob and at least the strength of Bob is going to lay down enough material for the cores to find it. According to the authors, even the 1938 hurricane, at 180 kilometers to the west, wasn't strong enough to leave a depositional layer, but Bob, although weaker, at 100 kilometers west, was. That makes Bob a pretty important guy. It's kind of like me saying I'm going to study prehistoric hurricanes on the Gulf Coast but whatever my equipment is only sensitive enough to detect at least a cat 2 and it has to make landfall within 100 km east of Mobile Bay. Actually, it would have to be right in the middle of Mobile Bay. No, too far over...that might raise a few questions, I think.

Yes, I think Donnelly's statement quoted in the blog qualifies as pure hyperbole. It will get him lots of quotes. However, it's also going to get a lot of questions from people who do read studies - like me. Is that what we want? How about we have two abstracts. One can be for all the scientists. The other can be for the non-scientists. Look, Naga, you're a sociologist. Read the paragraph you quoted from the study in #150. Even though you're a "soft" science guy who gets hooted at by all the "hard" science guys, you've learned a lot about their game. Do you think there's any chance in God's green earth that you could rewrite that paragraph in a way that one of the pickup truck guys down here might actually understand it? This is not a battle for science. Except for exactly what will happen and when, the science behind global warming is pretty clear to those who would understand. This is a battle for hearts and minds, and we can't win it by being obtuse. If the guys who did the study can't write in clear expositional English, send it out to someone like you that can. And for heavens sake, zip your lip when you're about to go overboard. :-)



Ok, last statement about Bob...Bob is great because they can only look for Bob's in this location using this method. They aren't looking for all systems, or even some systems, they are looking for guys who look like Bob because it's the only thing they can look for with any accuracy using this specific method at this specific location, they weren't trying to generalize and state as much.

Now on to the meat...I reject the soft versus hard science thing. That's something people like to say to separate themselves from guys like me when we start talking about institutions, structures, power, etc., I like to remind them our methods are based in the same conceptual framework only what we study is different. I think the soft / hard science thing died out awhile ago anyways, I don't hear it much anymore. Besides, my checks and my diplomas say College of Sciences on them same as the "hard" science guys.

You aren't going to like my response about rewriting that paragraph, yes I could rewrite it to make it more readable and understandable to the average person, but I don't think it's the publication itself's job to do it. Journal articles are written in a specific way, it's a discourse between scientists not a communication to the masses. Don't get me wrong, I think there needs to be better communication of studies, but I don't think that comes from changing the wording and stylistic flair within academic writing. I think that comes from removing the sensationalism that comes with reporting on science. I think scientists should stop making hyperreal comments designed to be attention grabbers and not literally correct. I think it would be good if there were scientists/journalists who were trustworthy interpreters to the general public and that scientific research still was regarded as holding privilege in informational creation. Heck, I might even go as far as to argue that a second copy written in more clear language should be made for communicative purposes, but for lack of a better term "dumbing down" academic writing is not the way to go.

Reforming the system would break the system. We are taught to write in certain ways because we are judged in peer review by others who have been taught to write that way and worse, we teach new people to write that way because if they don't the old guard won't publish them. It's completely tautological nonsense, but it's the way it works, and changing it would mean a complete reworking of the system and these ivory towers aren't coming down anytime soon.

Besides my two skills in life are sociology and being able to read journal level articles...what would I do if you took away one of my niches? :)
Quoting 205. sar2401:

The South is easily defined. There are only 11 states that qualify -

South Carolina
Mississippi
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Texas
Virginia
Arkansas
North Carolina
Tennessee

These are the states of the Confederacy. There no other Southern states. There are other states in the south, but it's not the same.


are you sure florida counts??? i know its swamp land but i am not so sure :)
Quoting 165. aquak9:

anything north of I-10 is "northern".

Preach it, Brutha Beell! Preach it!

Can I get an AMEN??


So, that makes me Southern and those in Canoga Park are Northern, too funny...
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:



So, that makes me Southern and those in Canoga Park are Northern, too funny...
sorry ped you were blue as per 1861 map

Say it ain't so, it got to 45 degrees in Alaska in February of 1920. I blame it on faulty equipment, maybe a little heat island effect mixed in for good measure.

Per NWS Anchorage twitter today:

@NWSAnchorage: Missed it by that much. Today's high in #Anchorage reached 44º... 45º was the record set in 1920. #AKwx #Alaska
Quoting 201. sar2401:

That's one reason you'll never understand the South. The War of Northern Aggression is only one name for that unpleasantness. There's the War for Southern Independence, the War of Separation, the Second Revolution, the War for Southern Rights, The Yankee Invasion, The Lost Cause. There are more but you get the picture. I'm only a Southerner by adoption but I understand the effect the war had on the South, and especially the aftermath. Down here, the war will live on forever.
Doesn't have to if we teach history in schools again. I am Eastern First American, which means for all I know my tribal village is under some building in downtown D.C. We fought on both sides of that battle after the battles with the Pilgrim, Jesuit, Spanish, French, British, Portuguese sailors? It was so confusing then that scholars still can't figure it out. The weather did not help either. I am still able to give you traditional native weather views based upon 3 principles. (1) Someone kicked someone's ass. (2) Someone was good looking. [3] Someone was a good diplomat. [4] Was lucky.
It's time for me to turn in. Spent some time tonight reading through recent daily blogs from the Mount Washington Observatory. Had no idea this existed - pretty neat.

Night, all.
I'm stealing Patrap's thunder here, but let's get back on topic. Crikey, there's a cyclone in Australia mates. G'day!
Quoting 224. Chucktown:

Say it ain't so, it got to 45 degrees in Alaska in February of 1920. I blame it on faulty equipment, maybe a little heat island effect mixed in for good measure.

Per NWS Anchorage twitter today:

@NWSAnchorage: Missed it by that much. Today's high in #Anchorage reached 44º... 45º was the record set in 1920. #AKwx #Alaska


I would "blame" it on the temperature of the air, after all Anchorage is warming at the rate of about 1.18 C per century, but then again I'm not into perpetuating conspiracy theories about faulty equipment and UHI since those things are checked and adjusted for.


Quoting 130. ColoradoBob1:

I would remind everyone Dr. Jennifer Francis is right. This deep loop in the jet stream has been in place for weeks .
It has been stuck for weeks, And it is exactly what she forecast.


I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.
Quoting 223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sorry ped you were blue as per 1861 map


I would not go by that map for 1 second. In New York, Connecticut, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and especially Maine, they are called Bootsies, and live right outside of every town. Quite derogatory.
Quoting 229. ClimateChange:



I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.


Why shouldn't it be possible? Cold air is still cold, this is a displacement of cold air spilling into areas it normally isn't.
Quoting 201. sar2401:

That's one reason you'll never understand the South. The War of Northern Aggression is only one name for that unpleasantness. There's the War for Southern Independence, the War of Separation, the Second Revolution, the War for Southern Rights, The Yankee Invasion, The Lost Cause. There are more but you get the picture. I'm only a Southerner by adoption but I understand the effect the war had on the South, and especially the aftermath. Down here, the war will live on forever.
Those names are hogwash, basically the South can not accept they fought a war in order to preserve slavery so they make up a bunch of crap to play the victim because they cant accept the terrible things they did. Not that the north has a perfect human rights record, but sure as hell more so than the south.
calling me ignorant based off your gross misrepresentation of history is utterly insane.
Just incase if there was any question of what "Rights" the south was "protecting"
from the SC Declaration of Secession
"Those States have assumed the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of Slavery"
233. beell
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:



So, that makes me Southern and those in Canoga Park are Northern, too funny...


Sorry,Ped. It don't count. You're left coast.
:)
Quoting 229. ClimateChange:



I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.



With a highly amplified jet stream due to a blocking high over Cali, it's unusually warm (and dry) out west and pretty cold in the eastern half of the country.
Quoting 226. LAbonbon:

It's time for me to turn in. Spent some time tonight reading through recent daily blogs from the Mount Washington Observatory. Had no idea this existed - pretty neat.

Night, all.
You had no idea this existed? Good night indeed Shamus!
Quoting 229. ClimateChange:



I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.

it is happening
its cold air displacement from abnormal jet patterns
and warm areas over the high north warmer waters under the ice
causing air too find new colder areas to settle into
trying to establish new cold core regions

maybe just a guess
its climate change and every region on the globe
is experiencing changes to there patterns
237. beell
Some severe chances apparent this weekend. ARKLATX on Saturday. Perhaps a better chance over SE Louisiana, southern sections of MS/AL into western FL on Saturday Sunday. Underneath 50-70 knots of broad, cyclonic mid-level southwesterly flow and CAPE AOA 1000 J/kg. An extra day of Gulf returns and a pre-frontal surface trough across this area.

Wind profiles mainly parallel to the boundary so a squall line/wind threat as the main convective mode.

Quoting 228. Naga5000:



I would "blame" it on the temperature of the air, after all Anchorage is warming at the rate of about 1.18 C per century, but then again I'm not into perpetuating conspiracy theories about faulty equipment and UHI since those things are checked and adjusted for.





Wow, did you hear that swoosh right over your head. C'mon man !!
Quoting 234. TimTheWxMan:




With a highly amplified jet stream due to a blocking high over Cali, it's unusually warm (and dry) out west and pretty cold in the eastern half of the country.


Just unusual because we've seen worse blocking patterns in recent years, like 2009-2010, when it really didn't get that cold. There was a lot of snow in places like DC but the cold was way overhyped. The last two winters have been totally different. The Great Lakes had been gradually trending toward ice-free winters over the past 40 years of satellite observations, and the last two years have completely bucked that trend with near record ice coverage.
240. beell
After a quick warm-up, same song, second verse from an aptly named winter forecaster.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

A FROZEN PRECIP EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI. THE FRESH MAMMOTH ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WITH A HIGH CENTER BASED OVER IL BY THURS EVENING... WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT ON FRI... AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE WEST AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH FOR A WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW AIR MASS FOR THE THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE FROM AR/SRN MO INTO WRN KY/TN AND NRN MS/AL. THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNANIMOUS ON MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER ANY FROZEN PRECIP IN THIS AREA WILL CAUSE ISSUES.

MUSHER
Quite the soaking right now here in C FL. Up to .86" and may pick up another .75" to 1" before 5am. This puts me at 3.02" for February so far with average being for 2.3" for the whole month and if the Euro pans out then C FL could get another 2" to 3" of rain next week as the Euro stalls a front out overhead and keeps it there for several days.

Good evening all. I'm just popping in to draw attention to the frontal system which is currently over FL and which is expected to take temperatures into the mid 40s on Thursday and Friday nights over the extreme NW Bahamas. If it pans out, we will get close to record-setting lows. I must say that this has been the coolest stretch of temperatures we've had in many winters. February daytime highs have mostly stayed below 80, and, more importantly, overnight lows have consistently fallen below 70. This is the first time in years that I am genuinely reminded of late 70s wx .........
Quoting 191. TimTheWxMan:




There's more than one way to define the South. One is their ability (or lack thereof) to handle winter weather and treating one inch of snow like the apocalypse (Atlanta looking like a scene out of the walking dead last year). :O)


My father was in Atlanta for business when that happened and it wasn't just snow. When it began to snow it wasn't cold enough yet to stick so the roads got wet. The temperature after 12-1 o'clock kept dropping so the one-two inches of snow now covered a sheet of ice that no one could see. Now couple that with Atlanta 5 o'clock traffic and the rarity of winter weather and you have a problem.
Quoting 232. Methurricanes:

Those names are hogwash, basically the South can not accept they fought a war in order to preserve slavery so they make up a bunch of crap to play the victim because they cant accept the terrible things they did. Not that the north has a perfect human rights record, but sure as hell more so than the south.
calling me ignorant based off your gross misrepresentation of history is utterly insane.
Just incase if there was any question of what "Rights" the south was "protecting"
from the SC Declaration of Secession
"Those States have assumed the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of Slavery"


Oh man, you are really playing with fire on here.
Quoting 192. Pallis1:

You do know that there are alligators in the rivers now!!! Global swarming.


Not sure if serious but I thought Gatesville NC (Merchant Millpond) was as far north as they reached.
Quoting 242. BahaHurican:

Good evening all. I'm just popping in to draw attention to the frontal system which is currently over FL and which is expected to take temperatures into the mid 40s on Thursday and Friday nights over the extreme NW Bahamas. If it pans out, we will get close to record-setting lows. I must say that this has been the coolest stretch of temperatures we've had in many winters. February daytime highs have mostly stayed below 80, and, more importantly, overnight lows have consistently fallen below 70. This is the first time in years that I am genuinely reminded of late 70s wx .........
Hey! 242 is our area code ! Lol. ..... noticing the rain over FL and expecting it to head this way by tomorrow. Though it may have rained itself out by then ...
Quoting 242. BahaHurican:

Good evening all. I'm just popping in to draw attention to the frontal system which is currently over FL and which is expected to take temperatures into the mid 40s on Thursday and Friday nights over the extreme NW Bahamas. If it pans out, we will get close to record-setting lows. I must say that this has been the coolest stretch of temperatures we've had in many winters. February daytime highs have mostly stayed below 80, and, more importantly, overnight lows have consistently fallen below 70. This is the first time in years that I am genuinely reminded of late 70s wx .........


I was there 2 weeks ago and it was 74 during the day with 20mph winds from the NE making it feel quite cool. The tourist there were not happy.
Quoting Methurricanes:
Those names are hogwash, basically the South can not accept they fought a war in order to preserve slavery so they make up a bunch of crap to play the victim because they cant accept the terrible things they did. Not that the north has a perfect human rights record, but sure as hell more so than the south.
calling me ignorant based off your gross misrepresentation of history is utterly insane.
Just incase if there was any question of what "Rights" the south was "protecting"
from the SC Declaration of Secession
"Those States have assumed the right of deciding upon the propriety of our domestic institutions; and have denied the rights of property established in fifteen of the States and recognized by the Constitution; they have denounced as sinful the institution of Slavery"
I called you ignorant? Where? I just said you don't understand the South, which you demonstrated. Look up the history of the Emancipation Proclamation. Look up the Article IV, Section 2 of the Constitution. Look up who financed the slave trade. Every one of the original 13 colonies owned slaves. Delaware remained a slave state throughout the Civil War, and slavery was only abolished when the National Emancipation Act took effect in 1865.

I would in no way defend slavery, but we're talking about 1860, not 2015. Slaves and indentured servants were considered property. The Federal government refused to enforce the Article IV, Section 2, as did many non-slave states. The South faced a rapid decent into poverty as their ability to survive as an agrarian society was being illegally taken away. They saw session as their last hope for survival. This was not a war between the White Hats and the Black Hats. Stop judging the events of 155 years ago as if they were occurring today.
Quoting 247. StormTrackerScott:



I was there 2 weeks ago and it was 74 during the day with 20mph winds from the NE making it feel quite cool. The tourist there were not happy.
'S not so bad if the wind's not blowing. Locals have been complaining about the cold too ... can't wait to hear what they say about Thursday ... :-)
Quoting 249. BahaHurican:

'S not so bad if the wind's not blowing. Locals have been complaining about the cold too ... can't wait to hear what they say about Thursday ... :-)


High of only 50 here on Thursday.
Man I nailed the forecast for rain for Central Florida today.
Quoting 248. sar2401:

I called you ignorant? Where? I just said you don't understand the South, which you demonstrated. Look up the history of the Emancipation Proclamation. Look up the Article IV, Section 2 of the Constitution. Look up who financed the slave trade. Every one of the original 13 colonies owned slaves. Delaware remained a slave state throughout the Civil War, and slavery was only abolished when the National Emancipation Act took effect in 1865.

I would in no way defend slavery, but we're talking about 1860, not 2015. Slaves and indentured servants were considered property. The Federal government refused to enforce the Article IV, Section 2, as did many non-slave states. The South faced a rapid decent into poverty as their ability to survive as an agrarian society was being illegally taken away. They saw session as their last hope for survival. This was not a war between the White Hats and the Black Hats. Stop judging the events of 155 years ago as if they were occurring today.
once self-governing almost immediately Vermont (then an independent country) and Massachusetts abolished slavery before the Constitution was a thing.
NOTHING was taken away from the South, they were not defending democracy or Republicanism, they lost a Presidential election and couldn't take the fact they could not control the Country as they have in the past, threw a hissy fit and started the Civil War because they were terrified of losing their slaves.
States rights more MORE infringed by the Fugitive slave laws than anything the North actually did.
Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:



High of only 50 here on Thursday.
Supposed to get to 66 here. Course, 66 has been more of a LOW temp so far this month .... it would be great to see a low temperature broken 4 a change.
Quoting beell:
After a quick warm-up, same song, second verse from an aptly named winter forecaster.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

..LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

A FROZEN PRECIP EVENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY ON FRI. THE FRESH MAMMOTH ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE ERN THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WITH A HIGH CENTER BASED OVER IL BY THURS EVENING... WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT ON FRI... AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS THE WEST AND PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW AN INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH FOR A WARM ADVECTION/OVERRUNNING PATTERN. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN INTO THE SHALLOW AIR MASS FOR THE THREAT OF SNOW AND ICE FROM AR/SRN MO INTO WRN KY/TN AND NRN MS/AL. THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNANIMOUS ON MOISTURE RETURN BUT THE EXACT LOCATION IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER ANY FROZEN PRECIP IN THIS AREA WILL CAUSE ISSUES.

MUSHER
That's a rather unfortunate name to have as a forecaster this year. In the near term, there's a slight change of accumulating snow overnight in north Alabama as a mostly dry clipper sweeps through. It looks like it may have just enough lift and moisture to squeeze out a quick half to one inch snowfall in the usual places north of a Hamilton to Jasper line. It will be all snow this time, but the area had icing yesterday which didn't melt today, so there's a winter weather advisory out. The cold air advection is really pumping, with temperatures in the high teens and low 20's across the north state already. It's 31 here. The originally forecast low was 31. Time for a quick revision. :-)
Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:



High of only 50 here on Thursday.


Where my folks are (Piedmont-Triad) Thursday is forecast to be a high of 14 and a low of -5. Glad I'm not there, don't think I've ever remember feeling below zero temps. I'll actually be in your neck of the woods-ish while everyone else freezes.
Quoting Methurricanes:
once self-governing almost immediately Vermont (then an independent country) and Massachusetts abolished slavery before the Constitution was a thing.
NOTHING was taken away from the South, they were not defending democracy or Republicanism, they lost a Presidential election and couldn't take the fact they could not control the Country as they have in the past, threw a hissy fit and started the Civil War because they were terrified of losing their slaves.
States rights more MORE infringed by the Fugitive slave laws than anything the North actually did.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. One word of advice though. If you happen to travel though the South, I'd keep the "hissy fit" description of the war to myself.
Quoting 257. sar2401:

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. One word of advice though. If you happen to travel though the South, I'd keep the "hissy fit" description of the war to myself.


He might be alright in many spots of North Carolina, or what I like to call New New Jersey.
Quoting 255. win1gamegiantsplease:



Where my folks are (Piedmont-Triad) Thursday is forecast to be a high of 14 and a low of -5. Glad I'm not there, don't think I've ever remember feeling below zero temps. I'll actually be in your neck of the woods-ish while everyone else freezes.
Think I may have experienced a sub-zero night in that area in the mid-80s, but single digits I definitely recall. -5 is pretty darned icy for Greensboro ...
Baltimore could have its latest subzero temperature on record. The latest temp of zero or lower is Feb 14, 1979 when it was -2. That's surprisingly early for the latest zero or lower in Baltimore, at least to me. Washington DC had a low of -1 on February 28, 1934 at the Reagan airport site.
NYC Central Park has had an average temp of 24.9 so far this month, which is 5.0 degrees warmer than the record coldest month of February 1934 at 19.9 degrees. Boston is a lot closer to their record, 18.2 so far this month, with the record at 17.5 degrees, also in 1934. The cold snap this later this week will push their average down but I have a feeling milder weather next week will keep Boston from breaking their record.

February 1934 is the coldest month on record in both cities. No other month has been that cold.
Quoting 259. BahaHurican:

Think I may have experienced a sub-zero night in that area in the mid-80s, but single digits I definitely recall. -5 is pretty darned icy for Greensboro ...


I remember a day where we had a big snowfall that cut classes for a while where it was in single digits most of the day (around 99-2000) and maybe a tiny handfull of others but -5 is absurd cold. It's not supposed to get above zero until about 9-10 AM there.
Quoting 257. sar2401:

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. One word of advice though. If you happen to travel though the South, I'd keep the "hissy fit" description of the war to myself.
You might expect btw that the average black Southerner prolly has a rather different take on the reasons for the war ... I generally find that any attempt to modify the status quo, especially if the change is not to one's benefit, is likely to be met with strong opposition. Additionally it's obvious that slavery had become iconic for the both south and north prior to the start of the war. All the rest of it is rhetoric and tone.

But I digress.
Still arguing about the South? Take it to WU mail! :/
Quoting BahaHurican:
You might expect btw that the average black Southerner prolly has a rather different take on the reasons for the war ... I generally find that any attempt to modify the status quo, especially if the change is not to one's benefit, is likely to be met with strong opposition. Additionally it's obvious that slavery had become iconic for the both south and north prior to the start of the war. All the rest of it is rhetoric and tone.

But I digress.
No digression at all. Slavery was the proximate cause of the war but slavery was a much different thing in 1830 than it is today. The Bahamas would never had been populated as early as it was if not for slavery and the slave trade, and the Bahamas has a proud history of helping shelter escaping slaves. I just think looking at history through the lens of today always gives one a distorted view. The concept of Holy Wars always makes me nervous. :-)
Quoting 252. Methurricanes:

once self-governing almost immediately Vermont (then an independent country) and Massachusetts abolished slavery before the Constitution was a thing.
NOTHING was taken away from the South, they were not defending democracy or Republicanism, they lost a Presidential election and couldn't take the fact they could not control the Country as they have in the past, threw a hissy fit and started the Civil War because they were terrified of losing their slaves.
States rights more MORE infringed by the Fugitive slave laws than anything the North actually did.
A war in which 620,000 people parished was caused by a "hissy fit"? Both sides had men die for a cause(s) that they believed in. They were willing to leave their families and homes for what they believed. Always tread lightly when it comes to a mans beliefs...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Still arguing about the South? Take it to WU mail! :/
No one's arguing, Tim.


Off topic –
Charley Rose is talking to an ex CIA guy tonight. Not once has he mentioned that the Saudi ‘s funded a virulent effort since Roosevelt to kill us. Our oil money all these years gave us ISIS. Now the genie is out of the bottle, and ISIS wants to kill the Saudi princes as well.

As long as they pumped oil , we turned a blind eye to the Wahhabi bullshit they exported.

Now, it may eat all of us.

Solar power does not have 1,400 years of baggage.
I gotta admit, putting aside wx issues like hurricanes, tornadoes AND snow , I'd be reluctant to move to the deep South, partly because I don't know if I would ever be comfortable with the "popular" view of events like the civil war. To me it's hard to justify the nostalgia when one appreciates the injustices on which it is predicated. I have a similar view towards glorification of Regency and post-Regency English aristocrats.
On another item, we had roughly 4 inches of snow with a nice coating of sleet to top it off this morning at my residence. Mother Nature brought winter to us in southern VA kinda late but from the forecasts it appears to be here for awhile.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


He might be alright in many spots of North Carolina, or what I like to call New New Jersey.
It's the Second Yankee Invasion! We have to sell them lots of houses now and condos now. :-)
Quoting 267. sar2401:

No one's arguing, Tim.


Maybe debating's the better word then.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I gotta admit, putting aside wx issues like hurricanes, tornadoes AND snow , I'd be reluctant to move to the deep South, partly because I don't know if I would ever be comfortable with the "popular" view of events like the civil war. To me it's hard to justify the nostalgia when one appreciates the injustices on which it is predicated. I have a similar view towards glorification of Regency and post-Regency English aristocrats.
Nah, you'd be OK. The Civil War mainly consists of some statues in town here. I'm a Yankee and nothing is shoved down my throat. People here are kinder, more considerate, and more caring about each other than any place else I've ever lived. It's not paradise, and it has its problems, but people will actually help strangers here, no questions asked. Having been to the Bahamas many times and now living in Alabama, I think you'd find the two cultures more alike than you might imagine. There's always an extra room at the Hotel SAR if you want to get your toe wet. :-)
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Maybe debating's the better word then.
Yeah, probably. It's kind of blog tradition when there's no blizzard in Boston or hurricane in Florida. :-)


Off topic –
Charley Rose is talking to an ex CIA guy tonight. Not once has he mentioned that the Saudi ‘s funded a virulent effort since Roosevelt to kill us. Our oil money all these years gave us ISIS. Now the genie is out of the bottle, and ISIS wants to kill the Saudi princes as well.

As long as they pumped oil , we turned a blind eye to the Wahhabi bullshit they exported.

Now, it may eat all of us.

Solar power does not have 1,400 years of baggage.

I have never seen a solar farm explode , and dump waste into a river.
A nice soaking over Central FL. tonight. Already up to 0.71" at the ASOS.

Quoting 265. sar2401:

No digression at all. Slavery was the proximate cause of the war but slavery was a much different thing in 1830 than it is today. The Bahamas would never had been populated as early as it was if not for slavery and the slave trade, and the Bahamas has a proud history of helping shelter escaping slaves. I just think looking at history through the lens of today always gives one a distorted view. The concept of Holy Wars always makes me nervous. :-)
however that lens is ubiquitous to every generation ... harder to dispose of than one might think... 1830s slavery was already a world away from 1780s slavery [thinking ABT indentured status] but by 1855 the world had moved on . Huge portions of the formerly slavery-dependent world were developing new systems that were more efficient, if not more humane. The South didn't have the investment in this new way of doing business, so they fought against it. Because they didn't bring the change upon themselves, the south lost 80 years and more of potential progress and advancement. Education of southern blacks after the war could've given the south a strong middle class to match the north. Realistically, of course, the mindset of post civil war white southerners was far from this. Hindsight will always be around, but I agree it's not fair to judge. Nevertheless I think we should evaluate history through the eyes of our own time ... perhaps we'll learn from the experience ...

Interesting points ... we don't always see eye to eye on everything, but I enjoy the discussion ...
Quoting 241. StormTrackerScott:

Quite the soaking right now here in C FL. Up to .86" and may pick up another .75" to 1" before 5am. This puts me at 3.02" for February so far with average being for 2.3" for the whole month and if the Euro pans out then C FL could get another 2" to 3" of rain next week as the Euro stalls a front out overhead and keeps it there for several days.




Yeah so far it's been a decent winter rain wise for most of Florida except far southern Florida. There have been a lot of good soaking rain events over the last several weeks in Central and North Florida. Although ironically so far in February Central Florida has been getting a bit more rain out of these events as whole then us despite the always emphasis on higher qpf and rain chances up here compared to down there.

Looks like a decent rain band moving through thanks to plenty of moisture and jet dynamics on top of already decent rainfall from earlier. Rainfall is past an inch in parts of Tampa Bay so far.
PBS Bees Knees produced CNBC is asking about rail cars tonight ,
It's the roadbed fool . It's the problem . Heavy trains, running over old old road beds , what could possibility go wrong ?
Quoting 273. sar2401:

Nah, you'd be OK. The Civil War mainly consists of some statues in town here. I'm a Yankee and nothing is shoved down my throat. People here are kinder, more considerate, and more caring about each other than any place else I've ever lived. It's not paradise, and it has its problems, but people will actually help strangers here, no questions asked. Having been to the Bahamas many times and now living in Alabama, I think you'd find the two cultures more alike than you might imagine. There's always an extra room at the Hotel SAR if you want to get your toe wet. :-)
I've found over the years that so many people are a lot kinder than stereotypes suggest :-) ... in just about every part of the US . It's sad that we [I Mean people generally] spend so much time hating each other for our differences that we don't get to enjoy the ways we are alike. Guess that is why I like this blog. uess
Quoting 258. win1gamegiantsplease:



He might be alright in many spots of North Carolina, or what I like to call New New Jersey.


Believe me, we'd like our taxpayers back just as badly as you'd like to send them back.
Quoting 279. ColoradoBob1:

PBS Bees Knees produced CNBC is asking about rail cars tonight ,
It's the roadbed fool . It's the problem . Heavy trains, running over old old road beds , what could possibility go wrong ?


This is why we all hate the media, they always ask the lazy and simple question.
Quoting 278. Jedkins01:



Yeah so far it's been a decent winter rain wise for most of Florida except far southern Florida. There have been a lot of good soaking rain events over the last several weeks in Central and North Florida. Although ironically so far in February Central Florida has been getting a bit more rain out of these events as whole then us despite the always emphasis on higher qpf and rain chances up here compared to down there.

Looks like a decent rain band moving through thanks to plenty of moisture and jet dynamics on top of already decent rainfall from earlier. Rainfall is past an inch in parts of Tampa Bay so far.


1.07" here in Longwood and its raining very hard right now. The yellow's on the radar are actually coming down as very heavy rains with vis down to 1.5 miles.
Quoting 275. ColoradoBob1:



Off topic %u2013
Charley Rose is talking to an ex CIA guy tonight. Not once has he mentioned that the Saudi %u2018s funded a virulent effort since Roosevelt to kill us. Our oil money all these years gave us ISIS. Now the genie is out of the bottle, and ISIS wants to kill the Saudi princes as well.

As long as they pumped oil , we turned a blind eye to the Wahhabi bullshit they exported.

Now, it may eat all of us.

Solar power does not have 1,400 years of baggage.

I have never seen a solar farm explode , and dump waste into a river.


With the U.S. continuing to increase home grown oil production in the U.S. are becoming less and less dependent on middle east oil while the rest of the world becomes even more dependent on middle east oil.
With that said, our increasing oil production will give us plenty of time for boosting the economy and the energy industry to tackle the development of transitioning to alternative energy like solar.
Transitioning away from middle east oil I think is the number one reason the U.S. is recovering. Personally I think our feudal political system is running the country like a risk board game and is slowing what I think would have been an even more massive economic recovery than it has been.

With that said, despite all our problems, we are proving to be very resilient and have overcome many things in the last decade that had signs of spelling our downfall as a civilized nation. Thankfully we've pulled out as a whole.
And while the loud voices are often the scary and destructive ones, those who are doing the most good are often the ones who toot their horns the least, and so when good is being done, if often catches us by surprise compared to when wrong things are being done, which tend to be announced more.

With that said I still have hopes we'll become a world leader in alternative energy independence, and companies like space X, and Tesla and more, along with the recovery of leading science operations in the government like NASA and the NWS give me hopes of our science future despite many who have fearfully apposed scientific progress recently.
Quoting BahaHurican:
however that lens is ubiquitous to every generation ... harder to dispose of than one might think... 1830s slavery was already a world away from 1780s slavery [thinking ABT indentured status] but by 1855 the world had moved on . Huge portions of the formerly slavery-dependent world were developing new systems that were more efficient, if not more humane. The South didn't have the investment in this new way of doing business, so they fought against it. Because they didn't bring the change upon themselves, the south lost 80 years and more of potential progress and advancement. Education of southern blacks after the war could've given the south a strong middle class to match the north. Realistically, of course, the mindset of post civil war white southerners was far from this. Hindsight will always be around, but I agree it's not fair to judge. Nevertheless I think we should evaluate history through the eyes of our own time ... perhaps we'll learn from the experience ...

Interesting points ... we don't always see eye to eye on everything, but I enjoy the discussion ...
Yes, we always tend to judge the past based on today, which is why we so often get the future wrong. The South in 1860 was in in a unique position. They controlled (or so they thought) the entire world supply of cotton. Cotton as as a cash crop was second only to tobacco, which the South also mostly controlled. The problem for the South was both crops were about the most labor intensive on earth. Without slaves, there was no cotton and no economy in the South. A lot of Southerners hated slavery but the were riding on the back of a tiger without a way to get off and not be eaten. The South also assumed that Britain, the world's largest processor of cotton into finished goods, would side with the Confederacy.

Unfortunately for the Confederacy, the Civil War changed everything, and none of it for the better. Britain started growing cotton in Egypt (mostly using African slaves, I might add) and was independent of the Confederate supply by 1865. The North started growing tobacco in border states, and the old Confederacy lost its near monopoly. Between the utter destruction of much of the South and the years of occupation and "reconstruction", whatever other industry the South had ceased to exist. There was never a chance to develop a black middle class because there wasn't a white middle class. The South was in abject poverty, and that didn't change until over 30 years later. Even at this late date, the South continues to lag behind other sections of the country because it can't run faster than the leaders who already had a big head start. Ironically, most historians think that slavery would have ended on its own within 20 years of the Civil War due to the invention of cotton farming machinery.
Quoting 205. sar2401:

The South is easily defined. There are only 11 states that qualify -

South Carolina
Mississippi
Florida
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana
Texas
Virginia
Arkansas
North Carolina
Tennessee

These are the states of the Confederacy. There no other Southern states. There are other states in the south, but it's not the same.
Quoting 220. WaterWitch11:



are you sure florida counts??? i know its swamp land but i am not so sure :)
Several things. First off, Florida, per se, is not "swamp land." Check out post #202 and you can see on the map that only a small portion of Florida is shown in purple, depicting wetlands, which is the polite term for swampland. Saying "I know it's swamp land" when describing Florida would be like saying that"( New York state) is skyscrapers." I think you get the point.

Secondly, Florida is as much southern as any other state in Dixie. Yes there are millions of transplants in Florida from outside the south but nowadays, that is happening very rapidly throughout the South. The South, just like all areas of the world is evolving as time passes. So stereotypes that are thought to be typically southern may have applied more accurately in the past but not as much today and even less so tomorrow. But still and due to geography, the South will always be the South and Florida is certainly a part of that.

And finally, your post suggests that swampland is somehow indicative of the South or is Southern in nature or even perhaps exclusively. Swamps exist all over the world and have nothing to do with region, including in the US. There are some famous wetlands in Florida and throughout the South but this is also true in numerous other areas, it is far from being just a Southern thing.
Quoting 279. ColoradoBob1:

PBS Bees Knees produced by CNBC is asking about rail cars tonight ,
It's the roadbed fool . It's the problem . Heavy trains, running over old old road beds , what could possibility go wrong ?


This is why we all hate the media, they always ask the lazy and simple question.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
PBS Bees Knees produced CNBC is asking about rail cars tonight ,
It's the roadbed fool . It's the problem . Heavy trains, running over old old road beds , what could possibility go wrong ?
Bob, what railroad owns that track? What is the physical condition of the track and roadbed? What's the accident history for that section of track? You really don't have a clue, do you? Just spouting based on faith that everything is run by morons and fools.
284. Jedkins01

On the other hand, you wrote a thoughtful comment. Here's yer atta boy .
Quoting FLWaterFront:
Several things. First off, Florida, per se, is not "swamp land." Check out post #202 and you can see on the map that only a small portion of Florida is shown in purple, depicting wetlands, which is the polite term for swampland. Saying "I know it's swamp land" when describing Florida would be like saying that"( New York state) is skyscrapers." I think you get the point.

Secondly, Florida is as much southern as any other state in Dixie. Yes there are millions of transplants in Florida from outside the south but nowadays, that is happening very rapidly throughout the South. The South, just like all areas of the world is evolving as time passes. So stereotypes that are thought to be typically southern may have applied more accurately in the past but not as much today and even less so tomorrow. But still and due to geography, the South will always be the South and Florida is certainly a part of that.

And finally, your post suggests that swampland is somehow indicative of the South or is Southern in nature or even perhaps exclusively. Swamps exist all over the world and have nothing to do with region, including in the US. There are some famous wetlands in Florida and throughout the South but this is also true in numerous other areas, it is far from being just a Southern thing.
Well, yeah, but they don't have gators in the Russian River to add that extra dash of excitement to an afternoon swim. :-) I might add that the entire area there rapidly becomes a swamp when conditions are right.
Quoting 288. sar2401:

Bob, what railroad owns that track? What is the physical condition of the track and roadbed? What's the accident history for that section of track? You really don't have a clue, do you? Just spouting based on faith that everything is run by morons and fools.


It's a private world sport , CSX owns the roadbed. Freight trains don't run over other companies rails, this has been in place since we layed the first rail.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah so far it's been a decent winter rain wise for most of Florida except far southern Florida. There have been a lot of good soaking rain events over the last several weeks in Central and North Florida. Although ironically so far in February Central Florida has been getting a bit more rain out of these events as whole then us despite the always emphasis on higher qpf and rain chances up here compared to down there.

Looks like a decent rain band moving through thanks to plenty of moisture and jet dynamics on top of already decent rainfall from earlier. Rainfall is past an inch in parts of Tampa Bay so far.
One of the really outstanding developments this year has been that every single front stalls, develops, or redevelops over Florida. You've already had twice the amount of rain I had when the low was only 75 miles north of me. The low has now completely disconnected from the front and is sitting over North Carolina. For whatever reason, this is the year not bet that anything over Florida is going to under perform.
Quoting 288. sar2401:
You really don't want to pick on me .
`
Quoting ColoradoBob1:


It's a private world sport , CSX owns the roadbed. Freight trains don't run over other companies rails, this has been in place since we layed the first rail.
And thank goodness it is, sport. If it wasn't, we could be saddled with the efficiency and fine safety record of something like the Indian National Railways, where they've already killed 12 and injured 100 - just this month - as yet another train flew off the tracks. Just a few of the 15,000 that die every year in that socialist paradise. Now, tell me exactly the condition of the track and roadbed where the accident occurred and how you'd judge if it was too old to carry the traffic. You've already failed with your explanation of the CSX. It's not their freight cars. They only provide the locomotives and crews. All those tank cars are owned by other private companies, which I know leads to death and destruction your world.
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
Quoting 288. sar2401:
You really don't want to pick on me .
Why? Are you the most dangerous man on the internet, or what? I stand in utter awe of your rapier like wit. Cut me to the bone, Bob. I can take it.
Quoting 288. sar2401:

One of the reasons the South lost the Civil War , every railroad had their own gauge. Which means your train has to unload everything on it, and haul it to another train just a few feet away. Southern thinking.

Plus, they never laid one foot of new steel during the entire war. The Union laid 22,000 miles. All on the same gauge, 4 feet 8 inches, the same one we have today all over America.

Ask me more about American railroads,
Quoting 288. sar2401:

I was at Newcastle, Wyoming when the Burington Northern track crew was laying the quarter mile steel rails out of the Powder River Basin . Their lesbians wore T-shirts that said:

"Burington Northern Track Crew, You Pay, We lay"

Don't get started on the Chinese, and Central Pacific, or brothers who made shovels for the Union Pacific.
Quoting 288. sar2401:

I have pickled more brain cells about railroads , than you have ever read.
Quoting 288. sar2401:

Steve Earle - The Texas Eagle

Link
Quoting sar2401:
Well, yeah, but they don't have gators in the Russian River to add that extra dash of excitement to an afternoon swim. :-) I might add that the entire area there rapidly becomes a swamp when conditions are right.

Nope, and ColoradoBob schooled ya on the railroads. J/s
Learn from your elders

Quoting 286. FLWaterFront:

Several things. First off, Florida, per se, is not "swamp land." Check out post #202 and you can see on the map that only a small portion of Florida is shown in purple, depicting wetlands, which is the polite term for swampland. Saying "I know it's swamp land" when describing Florida would be like saying that"( New York state) is skyscrapers." I think you get the point.

Secondly, Florida is as much southern as any other state in Dixie. Yes there are millions of transplants in Florida from outside the south but nowadays, that is happening very rapidly throughout the South. The South, just like all areas of the world is evolving as time passes. So stereotypes that are thought to be typically southern may have applied more accurately in the past but not as much today and even less so tomorrow. But still and due to geography, the South will always be the South and Florida is certainly a part of that.

And finally, your post suggests that swampland is somehow indicative of the South or is Southern in nature or even perhaps exclusively. Swamps exist all over the world and have nothing to do with region, including in the US. There are some famous wetlands in Florida and throughout the South but this is also true in numerous other areas, it is far from being just a Southern thing.


wow...i was being silly and you are just being defensive. thanks for the info about swamps being all over the world you learn something new everyday :)
Quoting ColoradoBob1:

All very interesting information, Bob, especially your intimate knowledge about BN track crews, but you never answered my questions. That tells me what I need to know. Good night, Bob.
Quoting geepy86:

Nope, and ColoradoBob schooled ya on the railroads. J/s
Learn from your elders

Boy, he sure did. You actually don't know how old I am, do ya? If Bob was any older than me, he'd probably be dead. Js.
Lam


13P
$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
413 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-VAZ052>056-502-181715-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WC.Y.0009.150219T0500Z-150219T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.150218T1900Z-150219T0200Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
FREDERICKSBURG
413 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO ONE INCH

* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WIND CHILL...0 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGHS THURSDAY IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. VISIBILITY
WILL BE LOCALLY REDUCED TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SUDDEN REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS DURING THE
EVENING RUSH. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS THAT CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND
GLOVES.

&&

$$
Rain totals from NW Tampa:
Yesterday's rain event: 1.22"
February so far: 3.59"
Year to date: 5.87"
A Whopping 1.58" last night! 3.60" now for February here in Longwood. 6.91" for the year so far this is more than double what is average for this time of year.
Quoting 310. StormTrackerScott:

A Whopping 1.58" last night! 3.60" now for February here in Longwood.


The HRRR nailed this one. The heaviest of rains fell between about 11:00 PM and 3:00 AM.
Quoting 311. tampabaymatt:



The HRRR nailed this one. The heaviest of rains fell between about 11:00 PM and 3:00 AM.


It has all year really. My total is higher than Tampa's only because of that one day in January where we got nearly 2.4" in one day.
313. beell

Good morning, WU!
good morning everyone
like i mentioned yesterday now td s13 and some of the leftovers of Lam might have a get together and be a bombing storm just offshore e australia
Quoting 310. StormTrackerScott:

A Whopping 1.58" last night! 3.60" now for February here in Longwood. 6.91" for the year so far this is more than double what is average for this time of year.


1.59 here for the entire event. .75 since midnight.
January PDO index is in at 2.45. So has this thing flipped to a positive phase or what?
Quoting 229. ClimateChange:



I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.


We still get record cold but not as often. The highly amplified western ridge has picked up some Siberian air and pushed it through North America to the Eastern U.S., something that just happens occasionally and is not that unusual. Two weeks ago I was wondering why with such a persistant ridge in the west, we weren't colder in the Mid Atlantic like 1976-77. A shift of the trough axis a little west and some more amplification has changed that.

Expecting subzero cold Friday AM with snow cover and a near record cold arctic air mass.





319. MahFL
Here in Orange Park I got 0.70 in of rain.
.05" for the rain event here in Fort Myers.
.13" in Naples

I got .04" at the house. Pretty ridiculous.
Quoting ClimateChange:


I don't know. It seemed like in past blocking episodes it didn't get all that cold. Was mostly hype. But something changed last winter and this winter. We're seeing record cold. That shouldn't be possible with today's globally warmed atmosphere.
It's unclear to me how one could draw such a conclusion. Even in a warming world--in fact, even in a future world much warmer than today--there'll still be frozen seas, and snowfall, and wintry weather. The Arctic will still be in darkness or near-darkness for six months out of the year, so there'll always be pools of cooler air available to spill southward should meanders in the jet stream allow it.

Here's the current temperature anomaly map from Climate Reanalyzer. Note the two obvious spots of magenta, one parked over eastern North America, and the other covering part of north central Asia. Also note the spots of bright red (Alaska, along with the Barents and Kara seas), plus the many areas covered by darker reds and oranges. So long as air is a fluid, and so long as the earth keeps spinning, and so long as uneven latitudinal heating of the earth's surface goes on, weather maps will *always* show areas of hotter and warmer and cooler and colder. Warmer anomalies will continue to dominate as they have for decades, of course. But none of us alive will see the end of record cold temperatures in places and at times.

Quoting 321. Neapolitan:
But none of us alive will see the end of record cold temperatures in places and at times.

Experiencing that as we speak (Holland).
In fact most of us will see that end and probably are already.
Quoting 320. Sfloridacat5:

.05" for the rain event here in Fort Myers.
.13" in Naples

I got .04" at the house. Pretty ridiculous.


I really don't understand what's going on. Numerous waves of moderate rain continued flowing into the I-4 corridor for about 12 hours straight. For some reason, as the line progressed even a little bit south, everything fell apart. The disparity in rainfall between C FL and S FL for the last 3-4 months is truly mind boggling.
324. MahFL
Quoting 322. cRRKampen:


Experiencing that as we speak (Holland).
In fact most of us will see that end and probably are already.


Hmm, so why might I see record cold max and min tomorrow in NE Florida ? Hopefully I am not the living dead, lol.
is that accurate? climate reanalyzer org? alaska has been brutal this last wk. even if it is i dont see anything alarming.
I nailed our forecast yesterday and a week ago I called a feeeze for Central Florida.
Good Morning All, it's -1 F in Grayling Michigan, -2 F in my backyard PWS east of Grayling with a predicted high tomorrow of -3 F and a low of -21 F. We are generally colder east of Grayling in the Au Sable river valley for some reason.
Going to Arizona soon...
Morning all. no school for me today, and WS danny dropped 5 inches, WS elisha (who hit last night) 1 inch. Very cold, wind chill of 5 above zero.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I really don't understand what's going on. Numerous waves of moderate rain continued flowing into the I-4 corridor for about 12 hours straight. For some reason, as the line progressed even a little bit south, everything fell apart. The disparity in rainfall between C FL and S FL for the last 3-4 months is truly mind boggling.


Yeah, it's pretty crazy. Between Tampa and Fort Myers the climate just changes from wet to dry.

Quoting 324. MahFL:



Hmm, so why might I see record cold max and min tomorrow in NE Florida ? Hopefully I am not the living dead, lol.

You are not the living dead, but you are confusing 'most' with 'all'. Doesn't matter, I'm used to talking to people with language deficits (other words most people cannot parse are 'Not' and, most especially: 'If').

Stuck Pattern Syndrome is right now AGW's way of producing those rare cold records these days. Most people alive will see this end, too, for it will be rapidly overtaken by raw Arctic Amplification.

There are probably a dozen or more hot date records about 2000 km west of you for your misery tomorrow.
Quoting 317. CuriousAboutClimate:

January PDO index is in at 2.45. So has this thing flipped to a positive phase or what?


Gearing up for a moderate to maybe Strong El-Nino as the latest runs of the CFSv2 have been showing a mind boggling 3C to 4C anomalies showing up across Nino 3.4 during August & September. I haven't seen that since 1997/1998 El-Nino. This might get interesting as we go forward so strap in because I think El-Nino is going to come this year unlike last year this ain't going to be no bust.

Quoting 295. sar2401:

And thank goodness it is, sport. If it wasn't, we could be saddled with the efficiency and fine safety record of something like the Indian National Railways, where they've already killed 12 and injured 100 - just this month - as yet another train flew off the tracks. Just a few of the 15,000 that die every year in that socialist paradise. Now, tell me exactly the condition of the track and roadbed where the accident occurred and how you'd judge if it was too old to carry the traffic. You've already failed with your explanation of the CSX. It's not their freight cars. They only provide the locomotives and crews. All those tank cars are owned by other private companies, which I know leads to death and destruction your world.
India is a socialist country? Tell me about this...
Quoting islander101010:
is that accurate? climate reanalyzer org? alaska has been brutal this last wk. even if it is i dont see anything alarming.
I guess it depends on how one defines the word "brutal". But, yes, it's accurate. Anchorage's average temperatures for the past seven days have run an average of nine degrees above normal (anomalies of 3, 9, 8, 4, 9, 12, 18); Nome's average over those seven days was nearly 8 degrees above normal (-1, -3, 3, 8, 6, 18, 23); and Fairbanks's average temperature yesterday was 24 degrees above normal.

Remember, that graphic shows anomalies, not actual temperatures.
Quoting 329. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it's pretty crazy. Between Tampa and Fort Myers the climate just changes from wet to dry.




Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.
December PDO of 2.51 and January PDO of 2.45 are just incredible readings for 2 months straight.
Quoting 334. StormTrackerScott:



Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.


We still had plenty of rain in Tampa last summer with a predominate westerly flow. There was a pretty pronounced 2 week dry period in June, but the rest of the summer was very wet. All that seems to do is change the timing of the rain from afternoon to mornings.

With that said, when we got drilled in late September with about 11 inches of rain in 4-5 days, that was due to an easterly flow combined with PWATs through the roof.

C FL is just in a really wet pattern right now with no end in sight.
Quoting 336. tampabaymatt:



We still had plenty of rain in Tampa last summer with a predominate westerly flow. There was a pretty pronounced 2 week dry period in June, but the rest of the summer was very wet. All that seems to do is change the timing of the rain from afternoon to mornings.

With that said, when we got drilled in late September with about 11 inches of rain in 4-5 days, that was due to an easterly flow combined with PWATs through the roof.

C FL is just in a really wet pattern right now with no end in sight.


It was a very interesting pattern last year for sure as scattered storms would move into the Tampa area in the early morning then burn off only to have numerous storms form from Orlando area east then late in the day outflow boundaries from those storms caused storms to build back into the Tampa area later in the evenings. Pattern could be similar this Wet Season.

July


August
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

FLZ041-044-141-191300-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.W.0001.150219T0800Z-150219T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.A.0001.150220T0600Z-150220T1400Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DELTONA...DE LAND...LEESBURG...EUSTIS...
LADY LAKE...TAVARES...MOUNT DORA...THE VILLAGES...DAYTONA BEACH...
PORT ORANGE...ORMOND BEACH...EDGEWATER
241 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS
ALSO IN EFFECT. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S ARE
FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CAPABLE OF HARMING
SENSITIVE AND ORNAMENTAL VEGETATION. SMALL ANIMALS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATELY CARED FOR OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
Red Flag warnings are also up due to the risk of fires from lower humidity.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-19 0700-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FW.A.0001.150219T1500Z-150220T0000Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-
MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
222 AM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND SUSTAINED WINDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA... INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY... NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY... ORANGE... SEMINOLE... SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...
OSCEOLA... INDIAN RIVER... OKEECHOBEE... ST. LUCIE... MARTIN...
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY... SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY... NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY.

* WIND...20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 24 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
Tell me, is it really 4 degrees in Cape Girardeau?
Cape Giradeau MO
Fair
4°F
-16°C
Humidity73%
Wind SpeedW 10 mph
Barometer30.11 in (1020.0 mb)
Dewpoint-3°F (-19°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill-11°F (-24°C)
Last Update on 18 Feb 6:53 am CST
35 degrees Friday morning (brrrr). But back in the 80s by Sunday. That's an incredible warm up.

7 Day for Fort Myers

Quoting 343. hydrus:




I can't think of anything worse than an inch or so of rain on top of all this snow here in Boston. I hope it's wrong and we get another foot of snow. In the meantime, I think I'm going to go hunting for the street drains under several feet of snow....
If you're in southern California/Arizona/Florida, just know that the rest of the United States hates you.

Quoting 330. cRRKampen:


You are not the living dead, but you are confusing 'most' with 'all'. Doesn't matter, I'm used to talking to people with language deficits (other words most people cannot parse are 'Not' and, most especially: 'If').

Stuck Pattern Syndrome is right now AGW's way of producing those rare cold records these days. Most people alive will see this end, too, for it will be rapidly overtaken by raw Arctic Amplification.

There are probably a dozen or more hot date records about 2000 km west of you for your misery tomorrow.
Lets get this right, it's no longer AGW, it's climate change as Global Warming is no longer the appropriate words of choice.
Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:



Gearing up for a moderate to maybe Strong El-Nino as the latest runs of the CFSv2 have been showing a mind boggling 3C to 4C anomalies showing up across Nino 3.4 during August & September. I haven't seen that since 1997/1998 El-Nino. This might get interesting as we go forward so strap in because I think El-Nino is going to come this year unlike last year this ain't going to be no bust.

Yeah, it's pretty mind boggling that some people trust these models this far out. Lets wait until late spring to discuss the Nino, Nina state.
Quoting 347. NativeSun:

Lets get this right, it's no longer AGW, it's climate change as Global Warming is no longer the appropriate words of choice.


Yes, let's get it right

"Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Both of the terms in question are used frequently in the scientific literature, because they refer to two different physical phenomena. As the name suggests, 'global warming' refers to the long-term trend of a rising average global temperature. Climate change', again as the name suggests, refers to the changes in the global climate which result from the increasing average global temperature. For example, changes in precipitation patterns, increased prevalence of droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather, etc."

"Both Terms Have Long Been Used

The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now. However, this is simply untrue. For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change' (which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6°C, not far off from today's widely accepted most likely value of 3°C). Barrett and Gast published a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'. The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977 (and is still published today). The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'. There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago. There is nothing new whatsoever about the usage of the term.

In fact, according to Google Books, the usage of both terms in books published in the United States has increased at similar rates over the past 40 years and a Google Scholar search reveals that the term 'climate change' was in use before the term 'global warming', and has always been the more commonly-used term in scientific literature: Link

Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:



It was a very interesting pattern last year for sure as scattered storms would move into the Tampa area in the early morning then burn off only to have numerous storms form from Orlando area east then late in the day outflow boundaries from those storms caused storms to build back into the Tampa area later in the evenings. Pattern could be similar this Wet Season.

July


August
Looks like a busy tropical season for S. Fla. with all that rain.
Quoting 345. aevil2:



I can't think of anything worse than an inch or so of rain on top of all this snow here in Boston. I hope it's wrong and we get another foot of snow. In the meantime, I think I'm going to go hunting for the street drains under several feet of snow....
Boston is in for more problems. I dont seen an end to it until March. Its a mess here too..winds are gusting over thirty , trees are crackin from all the ice , and its snowing....Looking forward to warmer days.
Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.


there are more than one model showing warm neutral to neutral in the summer months.....


el nino will be here around late april
Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!
Quoting 354. hurricanes2018:

el nino will be here around late april
Yes, we might have a Nino, but you forgot to put Modoki in front of El Nino and it should be a weak one.
Published Feb 18 2015 09:39 AM EST
System #1: Northeast Nuisance
An arctic cold front will spread light snow into the East Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Snow amounts through Wednesday night will generally be 3 inches or less as this cold front slices through, including a swath from the Ohio River Valley into the Appalachians, much of New York, Pennsylvania, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States.

It's worth mentioning that while accumulations will be light, this snow could fall in a burst, or snow squall, reducing visibilities suddenly. Multi-vehicle accidents have occurred several times this winter in these sudden snow squalls.

Possible slick commutes, due to this fresh, light snow include:

Wed. afternoon: Pittsburgh | Charleston, West Virginia
Thu. morning: NYC | Philly | Balt. | Wash., D.C.
Thursday, low pressure is expected to wrap-up off the New England coast, south of Nova Scotia.

Before that low intensifies, bands of heavy snow along a surface trough of low pressure should align over parts of Maine and New Hampshire overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Then, additional heavy snow should wrap into Maine Thursday into early Friday, before tapering off.

The National Weather Service has posted winter storm watches for all of Maine and northern New Hampshire. As you can see from our snowfall forecast map, this is where the greatest chance of at least 6 inches of snow is. Some locations where the heavy snowbands persist the longest will likely tally over a foot of new snow.

We only expect mainly light to locally moderate snow (4 inches or less) over the rest of New England Thursday and Thursday night, including Boston and Hartford.
Quoting 355. rjsenterp:

Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!

"In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels"

Now that could be considered even more amazing.




more snow for the northeast

Quoting rjsenterp:
Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!
Perhaps it wouldn't be so "Amazing!" to you if you'd taken the time to study the science. The thing is, the climate doesn't just change because it feels like it. Through researching past climatic changes, we know that greenhouse gasses--mostly CO2--have been the catalyst for most of those previous climate changes. And that's why most scientists are certain that the current climate changes we're seeing are indeed man's fault.
Climate Change Leads to Rapid Emergence of Infectious Diseases

Adam Novak, February 18, 2015 9:32 am


Climate change is creating conditions that are likely to increase the rate of infectious disease worldwide.

That’s the key findings of two new studies that show viruses such as Ebola, H1N1 and TB, as well as dengue and yellow fevers could spread further and become more frequent because of our changing climate.


Mosquito, a disease vector. Photo credit: Creative Commons: Enrique Dans In one recently published article, zoologists studied climate in two vastly different regions—the tropics and the Arctic—to gain an understanding of how climate change may affect the spread of disease.

In both regions the scientists found that by altering and moving habitat zones of disease-carrying animals, climate change could be making outbreaks of diseases more frequent.

Previously, scientists believed that parasites could not quickly jump from one host to another because of the way parasites and hosts co-evolve. This would, in effect, make new disease more rare as parasites would first have to evolve a genetic mutation in order to move to another species.

However, the new analysis argues that these evolutionary jumps can come quicker then anticipated.

“Even though a parasite might have a very specialized relationship with one particular host in one particular place, there are other hosts that may be as susceptible,”said Daniel Brooks, professor at University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Newer hosts are more susceptible to infections because they haven’t developed resistances to them, making the hosts more likely to get sicker.

The researchers predict that as humans move deeper in wildlife areas they are more likely to interact with animals affected by new more virulent strains of pathogens. This would increase the rate of human epidemics and could be spread even further through global air travel.

Sometimes the new diseases will come to us more directly.

In another new study, a team of researchers from the U.K. and Germany found that rising temperatures in Europe could bring traditionally tropical diseases such as dengue and yellow fevers to Europe.

The researchers predicted 2.4 billion people could be exposed to the Asian tiger mosquito by the middle of the century, as they emigrate from Africa to Europe’s new warmer climate.

The mosquito can transmit pathogens that spread diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya infection, yellow fever and encephalitis.

The research suggests the chances of the Asian tiger mosquito, hitting the UK and France are higher than previously thought.

Eastern Brazil, the eastern U.S., Western and Central Europe and Eastern China are also likely to provide increasingly suitable habitats for the mosquito between the period 2045 and 2054.


Quoting 331. StormTrackerScott:



Gearing up for a moderate to maybe Strong El-Nino as the latest runs of the CFSv2 have been showing a mind boggling 3C to 4C anomalies showing up across Nino 3.4 during August & September. I haven't seen that since 1997/1998 El-Nino. This might get interesting as we go forward so strap in because I think El-Nino is going to come this year unlike last year this ain't going to be no bust.



Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


So this is a week out on the GFS, which I know may as well be an eternity as far as weather forecasting is concerned & probably not at all accurate... but I'd be lying if I said a big part of me wasn't wishing for it. We live 30 mins NW of Charleston, SC and haven't seen a good snow since early 2010!  The meteogram for KCHS is showing up to 8 inches!  So, tell me straight, does anyone think this model has any chance of verifying?
Quoting 355. rjsenterp:

Hmm. "Unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region for hurricanes,...", with no humans to blame it on? You mean there might actually be other mechanisms that cause this?

Amazing!
there is all kinds of things that cause change over time of 10,000 too 100,000 years

what our problem is we have done it in 100 years 1920 2020 which would take nature maybe a couple of 1000 now she playing catch up running towards us faster and faster and once finally there she says tag yer it
Quoting 365. carolinabelle:



So this is a week out on the GFS, which I know may as well be an eternity as far as weather forecasting is concerned & probably not at all accurate... but I'd be lying if I said a big part of me wasn't wishing for it. We live 30 mins NW of Charleston, SC and haven't seen a good snow since early 2010!  The meteogram for KCHS is showing up to 8 inches!  So, tell me straight, does anyone think this model has any chance of verifying?


The ECMWF also has a low off the coast at that time. Trends in the track of that low will be important; if it shifts any farther southeast over the coming days, most of the precipitation would remain offshore, leaving us (I live near Wilmington, NC) dry. On the other hand, if it trends too far northwest, we may end up with an icy or just rainy solution. Overall, I think this might be our last good shot at wintry precipitation before we enter March and begin to warm up.
anomaly i read it right neo thanxs
Quoting 366. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there is all kinds of things that cause change over time of 10,000 too 100,000 years

what our problem is we have done it in 100 years 1920 2020 which would take nature maybe a couple of 1000 now she playing catch up running towards us faster and faster and once finally there she says tag yer it


Do you happen to know why my number of comments ticker reset all of a sudden?
Quoting 369. tampabaymatt:



Do you happen to know why my number of comments ticker reset all of a sudden?
did you just post your own blog for the first time recently
Quoting 347. NativeSun:

Lets get this right, it's no longer AGW, it's climate change as Global Warming is no longer the appropriate words of choice.

Right, like IPCC used to be named 'IPGW'.
And never mind last year was a #1 again, no?

Quoting 367. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ECMWF also has a low off the coast at that time. Trends in the track of that low will be important; if it shifts any farther southeast over the coming days, most of the precipitation would remain offshore, leaving us (I live near Wilmington, NC) dry. On the other hand, if it trends too far northwest, we may end up with an icy or just rainy solution. Overall, I think this might be our last good shot at wintry precipitation before we enter March and begin to warm up.

Thanks for the reply! I'll definitely be keeping an eye on the track / models... and I agree, it probably is our last chance this winter, unfortunately (for those of us who still like the snow!).
does not appear so just checked not sure send a help ticket here

Link
Quoting 370. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

did you just post your own blog for the first time recently


I went in to "my blog" to add someone to my ignore list, but I didn't post a blog.
Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


first of all.... as you know tropic.....you have to use the correct CFSV2 run.......a good way for people to see what is used by the pro mes is to use the one on your blog.....and that one has never shown an anomaly of 3 to 4 c.....either the original poster is fabricating that figure or is using the wrong model........however.....as mentioned by the aussie mets yesterday in their enso report.....we have entered that springtime barrier...where the models cannot be trusted.....we saw how foolish some looked last year this time
Quoting 374. tampabaymatt:



I went in to "my blog" to add someone to my ignore list, but I didn't post a blog.
hmmm make sure you put that in the help ticket if you send one

that's about all I can do
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you're in southern California/Arizona/Florida, just know that the rest of the United States hates you.


LOl but..its getting cold here too..stop sending it down here
Quoting 376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hmmm make sure you put that in the help ticket if you send one

that's about all I can do


thanks
Just a note on the concentration of top 10 snowfall seasons in Boston in the last 25 or so years. At the beginning of the period and the end of the period of observation the measurement technique changed.
At first they would measure snow at the end of each storm.
Now they measure every 6 hours.
In a city like Boston when often a powerful Nor'easter can draw in a maritime layer causing mixing, the latter method gets higher snowfall totals.
ex.
Say there is an 18 storm, it snows 6 inches, mixes, then snows 6 inches one in 1900 one in 2013
the former method (1900) it would snow 6 inches compact 3 inches during the mix period, and snow an additional six, measured only at the end (3 6) making the storm total 9.
the latter method (say 2013)they would measure the snowfall 3 times, getting 6 inches, 0 inches, and 6 inches added together its 12 inches. That's 66% more snow than the same storm in 1900
not saying there is no upward trend, but it may be exaggerated.

and if anyone was wondering the snow-water equivalent is about 6.5 inches.
Looks like some more rough weather on the way to you. How bad is the ice damage in your area? Level 3 or greater? Any talk of a federal disaster declaration?

Best of luck. Ice storms are no fun.

Quoting 351. hydrus:

Boston is in for more problems. I dont seen an end to it until March. Its a mess here too..winds are gusting over thirty , trees are crackin from all the ice , and its snowing....Looking forward to warmer days.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
35 degrees Friday morning (brrrr). But back in the 80s by Sunday. That's an incredible warm up.

7 Day for Fort Myers





35 is nothing now try -30 be low 0 now that cold
Quoting 381. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like some more rough weather on the way to you. How bad is the ice damage in your area? Level 3 or greater? Any talk of a federal disaster declaration?

Best of luck. Ice storms are no fun.


I would be nervous of the snow pack preserving cold surface temps in Mass, most worried about slightly inland, and North of the Mass Pike.
Quoting 364. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


That's why just about all the models have now followed the CFSv2 with a few now showing a warmer signal than the CFSv2 but good try TA13. People are not happy looking at all these models showing El-Nino as that would tend to mean a less active hurricane season. Again good try though.

As I stated earlier several other models now are as strong or stronger with El-Nino than the CFSv2 with one being the one that NASA uses. This jump upwards is a significant increase by these models from the January update which the IRI site has not updated for a month now.

Quoting 375. ricderr:

Yes, let's continue to trust a model that has been consistently wrong over the past 4 years in showing a strong El Nino that has yet to materialize.


first of all.... as you know tropic.....you have to use the correct CFSV2 run.......a good way for people to see what is used by the pro mes is to use the one on your blog.....and that one has never shown an anomaly of 3 to 4 c.....either the original poster is fabricating that figure or is using the wrong model........however.....as mentioned by the aussie mets yesterday in their enso report.....we have entered that springtime barrier...where the models cannot be trusted.....we saw how foolish some looked last year this time


The model i posted is the CFSv2 and it updates every 6 hours on Weatherbell and yes it does show a strip of 3C to 4C anomalies with a average of likely 2C for the area as a whole. Again good try to you as well.
Actually I was referring to Tennessee and Hydrus' ice storm woes.

But, yes, the snowpack refrigerator can wreak havoc with a marginal rain event. With you there.

I don't think flooding will be the issue this time around as just not going to get warm enough for rapid melt. I could see much of the liquid precip this time around being absorbed by the snowpack. Of course, that changes if you're talking a lot of rain in a short time.

Quoting 383. Methurricanes:

I would be nervous of the snow pack preserving cold surface temps in Mass, most worried about slightly inland, and North of the Mass Pike.
From the New York Times, a very sobering piece on the water woes in Brazil.

Taps Start to Run Dry in Brazil's Largest City
Sao Paulo Water Crisis Linked to Growth, Pollution and Deforestation
By SIMON ROMERO, Feb. 16, 2015

Excerpt:

"Behind closed doors, the views are grimmer. In a meeting recorded secretly and leaked to the local news media, Paulo Massato, a senior official at Sao Paulo's water utility, said that residents might have to be warned to flee because "there's not enough water, there won't be water to bathe, to clean" homes."

Good Morning. These type of bitter cold outbreaks are usually followed by some of type of retirement community ads up north (from Florida) letting the older folks know they can retire to sunny Florida to beat the cold................ :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The model i posted is the CFSv2 and it updates every 6 hours on Weatherbell and yes it does show a strip of 3C to 4C anomalies with a average of likely 2C for the area as a whole. Again good try to you as well.


Jeff, you are not getting it. You did the exact same thing day after day after day after day......... for an entire year. Now you are doing it all over again. Do you see where we are coming from?

Btw, cancelled golf because it will be too damn cold. Spring is NOT here yet in Central Florida.
Quoting 384. StormTrackerScott:



That's why just about all the models have now followed the CFSv2 with a few now showing a warmer signal than the CFSv2 but good try TA13. People are not happy looking at all these models showing El-Nino as that would tend to mean a less active hurricane season. Again good try though.

As I stated earlier several other models now are as strong or stronger with El-Nino than the CFSv2 with one being the one that NASA uses.


Is not because the el nino the reason he's not happy. The issue here is the obsession you have with and El nino since early 2012 and the models have all fail their forecast.
Quoting Tazmanian:




35 is nothing now try -30 be low 0 now that cold


Yeah, I know. I've become a cold weather wimp since moving to S.W. Florida about 18 years ago.

For several years when I lived in central Oklahoma, I drove a motorcycle all Winter as my only form of transportation.
Doing 70 mph on the highway when it was only 8 degrees outside about killed me.

That had to be a wind chill of about -30. I just know my body would be shaking violently trying to stay warm.
Quoting 388. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. These type of bitter cold outbreaks are usually followed by some of type of retirement community ads up north (from Florida) letting the older folks know they can retire to sunny Florida to beat the cold................ :)

Did you happen to see this WU news article?

Ithaca to Visitors: Go to Florida Instead
Quoting 384. StormTrackerScott:



That's why just about all the models have now followed the CFSv2 with a few now showing a warmer signal than the CFSv2 but good try TA13. People are not happy looking at all these models showing El-Nino as that would tend to mean a less active hurricane season. Again good try though.

Frankly, I don't care what any of the models show with regard to ENSO. It's become clear at this point -- at least, to any reasonable person -- that there is little skill in forecasting such several months in advance, especially as we progress toward the spring barrier.
Quoting 346. TropicalAnalystwx13:

If you're in southern California/Arizona/Florida, just know that the rest of the United States hates you.




Hey. Don't you think we get bored with sunny days and warm tropical breezes?
Quoting 381. HaoleboySurfEC:

Looks like some more rough weather on the way to you. How bad is the ice damage in your area? Level 3 or greater? Any talk of a federal disaster declaration?

Best of luck. Ice storms are no fun.


Not yet , but this next system will make things worse..Hoping Saturdays forecast come to fruition. I have considerable tree damage , and fence is preety messed up...If we can hold this way until the middle of the weekend , we will be o.k.
Quoting 393. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Frankly, I don't care what any of the models show with regard to ENSO. It's become clear at this point -- at least, to any reasonable person -- that there is little skill in forecasting such several months in advance, especially as we progress toward the spring barrier.


Well the models start the ramp up in May which is only 10 weeks away.
Quoting 387. LAbonbon:

From the New York Times, a very sobering piece on the water woes in Brazil.

Taps Start to Run Dry in Brazil's Largest City
Sao Paulo Water Crisis Linked to Growth, Pollution and Deforestation
By SIMON ROMERO, Fe. 16, 2015

Excerpt:

"Behind closed doors, the views are grimmer. In a meeting recorded secretly and leaked to the local news media, Paulo Massato, a senior official at Sao Paulo's water utility, said that residents might have to be warned to flee because "there's not enough water, there won't be water to bathe, to clean" homes."


its gonna get ugly there real ugly and soon
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Frankly, I don't care what any of the models show with regard to ENSO. It's become clear at this point -- at least, to any reasonable person -- that there is little skill in forecasting such several months in advance, especially as we progress toward the spring barrier.


Your key words are "reasonable person." I don't think that applies here.
Getting tired of the El Nino debate that has been championed now for the last 9 months; if it had happened by now (and certainly the "super" El Nino that was championed at one point), then someone would have talked about how they saw it coming before anyone else as if they had a crystal ball or were a forecast savant............There is no way to predict a long term weather event, and certainly with the Enso cycle, several months out in advance.

I don't of anyone (Pro or Amateur) that predicted that we would have Enso Neutral conditions for the Atlantic season for three years in a row (4 years ago) but it happened.................There is no way to know the exact outcome but the models help us try to make a reasonable forecast in the short-term; long-term is often a coin flip.
The model i posted is the CFSv2 and it updates every 6 hours on Weatherbell and yes it does show a strip of 3C to 4C anomalies with a average of likely 2C for the area as a whole. Again good try to you as well.


thanx for the clarification scott.......but here is where i have the problem....

you're using a model that has been highly innacurate long range in the past....

you're in the time of the spring barrier when the models cannot be trusted....

you're ignoring the means and only looking at a specific segment of outlier models......


most important though...you're only looking at models...not asking the important question of why....and yes...what i learned most from last years failure to produce an el nino...was to ask why......let me give you two recent incidences of how that can make you look foolish....

a month ago...you posted the daily SOI value of below -.40...and made the ascertation that signified how an el nino event was heating up.....now while that figure is impressive...if you had asked why...and dug a bit deeper...you would have seen that it was in direct correlation of tropical cyclones in the tahiti area....and not a reflection of the ENSO conditions.....as a matter of fact...yesterdays daily value was above 17 (la nina territory) and more importantly the 30 day value is now above -.8 (neutral territory)

also....two months ago...you were touting the CFSV2 model...and showing that the means was above a 2.0 anomaly....once again though.....digging deeper produced the fact that the pro mets were explaining that this was an error due to the model having a bias with the current produced kelvin wave...






Frankly, I don't care what any of the models show with regard to ENSO. It's become clear at this point -- at least, to any reasonable person -- that there is little skill in forecasting such several months in advance, especially as we progress toward the spring barrier.

i think we have all seen that in many cases....when a blogger....can only make their assertions of upcoming events by referencing a model...they have little understanding of the subject
Well the models start the ramp up in May which is only 10 weeks away.


hmmmmmmm.........

may is spring.......

spring is "springtime barrier".......

we expect the models to be wrong because of the springtime barrier.....

nuff said
Well then if that is your theory then explain how the levels of CO2 rose in the past without industrialization to cause past climate changes? And then how did the levels go down again?
Quoting 361. Neapolitan:

Perhaps it wouldn't be so "Amazing!" to you if you'd taken the time to study the science. The thing is, the climate doesn't just change because it feels like it. Through researching past climatic changes, we know that greenhouse gasses--mostly CO2--have been the catalyst for most of those previous climate changes. And that's why most scientists are certain that the current climate changes we're seeing are indeed man's fault.
Quoting 404. sanflee76:

Well then if that is your theory then explain how the levels of CO2 rose in the past without industrialization to cause past climate changes? And then how did the levels go down again?

The oceans most likely absorbed most of the C02....Link

How plankton helps..Link



Flickr/NASA Goddard Photo.


snow for the northeast
Thank you Dr Masters.
Quoting 397. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its gonna get ugly there real ugly and soon

Yes. And a look at the Levant might inspire speculation as to how the near future could look like, there.


wow 12 inches of snow!!


Skies are clearing out in C FL.
This would be quite remarkable if it were to verify.
Below zero temperatures all the way down to N.E. Texas in late February.
At this point we will probably see a La Nina, who knows anything is possible. Two things I am finding annoying is predictions for an El Nino to occur which should have occurred last year, but did not and the second thing is the quiet predictions for this upcoming hurricane season that is like 4 months away and as we have seen in the past conditions change as we get closer to the season. I think using current sst charts, vertical instability, and shear maps to get a general idea of what the hurricane season will be like is a little too soon, maybe check back in April. Remember we are still in winter and of course the conditions will still look like crap in the Atlantic, especially with the winter time Jet Stream pattern along the east coast providing shear throughout the Atlantic and the ITCZ being suppressed down near the equator, this is climatologically to be expected. Again, to echo Cody's voice there is little skill in forecasting months out in advance when it comes to El Nino/La Nina episodes and predictions for the hurricane season.
Quoting 399. weathermanwannabe:

Getting tired of the El Nino debate that has been championed now for the last 9 months; if it had happened by now (and certainly the "super" El Nino that was championed at one point), then someone would have talked about how they saw it coming before anyone else as if they had a crystal ball or were a forecast savant............There is no way to predict a long term weather event, and certainly with the Enso cycle, several months out in advance.

I don't of anyone (Pro or Amateur) that predicted that we would have Enso Neutral conditions for the Atlantic season for three years in a row (4 years ago) but it happened.................There is no way to know the exact outcome but the models help us try to make a reasonable forecast in the short-term; long-term is often a coin flip.


yes, the whole "boy who cried Niño" schtick is kinda wearing thin.
Quoting 412. GTstormChaserCaleb:

At this point we will probably see a La Nina, who knows anything is possible. Two things I am finding annoying is predictions for an El Nino to occur which should have occurred last year, but did not and the second thing is the quiet predictions for this upcoming hurricane season that is like 4 months away and as we have seen in the past conditions change as we get closer to the season. I think using current sst charts, vertical instability, and shear maps to get a general idea of what the hurricane season will be like is a little too soon, maybe check back in April. Remember we are still in winter and of course the conditions will still look like crap in the Atlantic, especially with the winter time Jet Stream pattern along the east coast providing shear throughout the Atlantic and the ITCZ being suppressed down near the equator, this is climatologically to be expected. Again, to echo Cody's voice there is little skill in forecasting months out in advance when it comes to El Nino/La Nina episodes and predictions for the hurricane season.
Greetings Caleb..I have a theory why Nino never came to be..If I can ever find time to type it.
Quoting 412. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I think using current sst charts, vertical instability, and shear maps to get a general idea of what the hurricane season will be like is a little too soon, maybe check back in April.


I am interested in the sst anomalies and vertical instability. While I agree that you can't assume that certain patterns in those areas now will persist into the summer, it's at least interesting to look at and track the pattern as we get closer to hurricane season. If someone chooses to assign a prediction for the season based on these charts now, why does it annoy you so much? Just ignore it. There are a lot of people on this blog and they won't always post things exactly to your expectations. When hurricane season comes, you are free to wishcast every tropical wave and give your thoughts.
GFS MOS is forecasting a low of 26 in Daytona Beach for Friday morning, which would break the record low of 27 on that date set back in 1958. Impressive if it verifies. Sky conditions look clear on that morning, however winds still look high which would cause mixing to occur and keep the temperatures up a little.

Link
Quoting sanflee76:
Well then if that is your theory then explain how the levels of CO2 rose in the past without industrialization to cause past climate changes? And then how did the levels go down again?
Well, much as I'd like to take credit, it's not *my* theory; it's the theory supported by tens of thousands of scientists and veritable mountains of observational data. But to answer your question: here's a great primer on the subject.
Dr. Masters has made the point several times that the "models are not gospel" and particularly when they are applied in a longer-term setting. A great forecast tool but this is why folks like Gray/Klotzback "tweak" their forecast between May and August to account for real time conditions as we approach the peak of the Atlantic season. Lots of small and large scale synoptic factors can change in the Atlantic between May and August and the Enso cycle is one of the big-ticket items in this regard/time-frame.
How did they assume it was a Category 3? The storms could have been monstrously sized Category 1s.
I'm just going to let this hurricane season come as it is.
Quoting 419. nickharger:

How did they assume it was a Category 3? The storms could have been monstrously sized Category 1s.

This was actually discussed at length on the blog yesterday. The researchers looked for event beds for the historic period, looking for known storms. They only found the three mentioned (Bob, and the two from the 1600s). Other storms were discussed in the paper and in the Supporting Information for the paper. No other storms during the historic period left event beds as these three did, so when they cored deeper, looking for similar event beds, the event beds found would have been from storms similar or stronger than these three.
Here is the big picture headline from NWS for the next few days. Goes without saying with all the hard freeze warnings for parts of the S-SE that folks need to take care of pets, plants, and check on exposed pipes (drip faucets) before turning in tonight. Gonna be lots of busted pipes in the South over the next few days. A "duh" tip; if you do the faucet drip precaution, make sure you drip the faucet with "hot" water and try to run the faucets which are furthest way from the water heater so you get the warm flow going through as many pipes as possible in the overnight hours.


Cold air continues across eastern U.S., records threatened

Exceptionally cold air will dominate the eastern half of the U.S. on Wednesday as an arctic cold front makes its way toward the East Coast. Many records will be threatened as temperatures plummet to as much as 25-30 degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs in the single digits across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and overnight lows forecast below zero from Bismarck to Buffalo. 

Quoting 418. weathermanwannabe:

Dr. Masters has made the point several times that the "models are not gospel" and particularly when they are applied in a longer-term setting. A great forecast tool but this is why folks like Gray/Klotzback "tweak" their forecast between May and August to account for real time conditions as we approach the peak of the Atlantic season. Lots of small and large scale synoptic factors can change in the Atlantic between May and August and the Enso cycle is one of the big-ticket items in this regard/time-frame.
Yep...He has even dedicated entire posts on the subject. I typed numerous comments on it , and many others here have discussed the issue. The models have had there own thread for the better part of a day. I have come to the realization that some do not understand how the models actually work and compute or how Mets apply them to their forecast. Therefore I no longer address the issue.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2015 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2015

***Areas of snow from the Great Lakes to New England***

***Historic cold for the eastern U.S. late this week***

***Remaining mild and dry for the western United States***

The overall weather pattern through the end of the week will continue to
be featured with a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern half of
the country, and a big upper level ridge for the western states. This
will keep the West Coast, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest
warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern parts of the
U.S. much colder than normal. Although the weather is pleasant out west,
the drought continues for California and much of the Intermountain West,
and no appreciable rain is in the forecast over the next couple of days.
There may be a few showers over western Washington state, but that is
about it.

Over the eastern half of the nation, we all know that it has been quite
cold over the past week. Get ready for an even more impressive surge of
arctic air later this week as another cold front drops south from Canada.
There are indications that this could be some of the coldest weather since
the mid-1990s for parts of the Southeast U.S., Mid-Atlantic, and central
Appalachians. An eddy of the polar vortex will add to the potency of the
surface cold front, thus creating a deep layer of bitterly cold air.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the teens for
many of these areas, and overnight lows could reach zero degrees or even
lower in some areas!
After Friday, temperatures are forecast to moderate
and become more tolerable.

In the precipitation department, no major areas of rain or snow are
expected over the next 48 hours. There will be periods of light snow and
snow showers from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England as
shortwave energy with the arctic front moves across the region. Some lake
effect snow showers will be possible as well. Lingering showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible for the Florida peninsula before the cold
front clears the state by later Wednesday.

D. Hamrick



I'm just going to let this hurricane season come as it is.



nope....folks..let me help you out as i have rattled the chicken bones......read my tarot cards....checked the alignment of the stars....messaged spirits through a seance.....researched tea leaves.....and of course....looked at the farmers almanac......

THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON WILL PRODUCE NO HURRICANES....

that's a fact jack....nothing more needs to be said....subject is closed....next topic please

Quoting 408. cRRKampen:


Yes. And a look at the Levant might inspire speculation as to how the near future could look like, there.

Hopefully not...that would be a tragedy.
Lam getting sheared,..

428. MahFL
Quoting 421. LAbonbon:


This was actually discussed at length on the blog yesterday. The researchers looked for event beds for the historic period, looking for known storms. They only found the three mentioned (Bob, and the two from the 1600s). Other storms were discussed in the paper and in the Supporting Information for the paper. No other storms during the historic period left event beds as these three did, so when they cored deeper, looking for similar event beds, the event beds found would have been from storms similar or stronger than these three.


Science is hard for some people.
Afternoon everybody. We are experiencing some pretty decent rain from the front here in New Providence so far, and the temps have already started to tank: 70 now down from 77 at 9 a.m.



Anybody in S FL feeling the chill? I see WU is reporting 62 in Hollywood at this hour, which is not that cold for Feb....
From Phys.org:

Study finds more evidence for link between wavy jet stream and extreme weather


Credit: National Weather Service

Prolonged cold snaps on the East Coast, California drought and frozen mornings in the South all have something in common – the atmospheric jet stream which transports weather systems that's taken to meandering all over North America.

Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis and colleagues link that wavy jet stream to a warming Arctic, where climate changes near the top of the world are happening faster than in Earth's middle latitudes.

A new study from Francis and University of Wisconsin-Madison scientist Stephen Vavrus, published in IOPscience, backs up that theory, with evidence linking regional and seasonal conditions in the Arctic to deeper north-south jet stream waves which will lead to more extreme weather across the country.

Read more >>


More information: "Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming." Jennifer A Francis and Stephen J Vavrus 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 014005. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005
There might be another storm for the south next week, but time will tell. Another thing I want everyone to answer, do you think I'm a good friend. If not, I understamd.
Yep...He has even dedicated entire posts on the subject. I typed numerous comments on it , and many others here have discussed the issue. The models have had there own thread for the better part of a day. I have come to the realization that some do not understand how the models actually work and compute or how Mets apply them to there forecast. Therefore I no longer address the issue.


that's because you can channel your "inner peace" better than most.....you are a man to be admired hydrus....



Quoting 404. sanflee76:

Well then if that is your theory then explain how the levels of CO2 rose in the past without industrialization to cause past climate changes? And then how did the levels go down again?

Also assumes we know everything about past periods of "industrialization" or similar societal buildups that could have influenced climate events.

One of the frustrating aspects of this climate change situation is that we know so little about the past compared to what we'd LIKE to know.
Quoting 404. sanflee76:

Well then if that is your theory then explain how the levels of CO2 rose in the past without industrialization to cause past climate changes? And then how did the levels go down again?


It's called "the carbon cycle."
It's not "nea's theory," either - it's the body of geological & atmospheric science's theory. This isn't new territory.

Humans are taking the carbon cycle and speeding it up orders of magnitude compared to what is seen naturally.

Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

NASA
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/carbon/
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonC ycle/page1.php

EPA
http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/basics/today/c arbon-dioxide.html

IPCC AR4
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/ en/ch7s7-3.html
Quoting FLWaterFront:
Several things. First off, Florida, per se, is not "swamp land." Check out post #202 and you can see on the map that only a small portion of Florida is shown in purple, depicting wetlands, which is the polite term for swampland. Saying "I know it's swamp land" when describing Florida would be like saying that"( New York state) is skyscrapers." I think you get the point.

Secondly, Florida is as much southern as any other state in Dixie. Yes there are millions of transplants in Florida from outside the south but nowadays, that is happening very rapidly throughout the South. The South, just like all areas of the world is evolving as time passes. So stereotypes that are thought to be typically southern may have applied more accurately in the past but not as much today and even less so tomorrow. But still and due to geography, the South will always be the South and Florida is certainly a part of that.

And finally, your post suggests that swampland is somehow indicative of the South or is Southern in nature or even perhaps exclusively. Swamps exist all over the world and have nothing to do with region, including in the US. There are some famous wetlands in Florida and throughout the South but this is also true in numerous other areas, it is far from being just a Southern thing.


Atlanta is the most de-southernized city in the south imho. A lot of folks from the north(and all over) have moved to the now so-called Dixie City. It's the fastest-growing metropolis in the US. Miami is not far behind. In fact, Miami has an accent very akin to NYC/New England.
Snow bands developing out west. Snowfall rates will be quite high as this system is fairly dynamic.


Quoting 432. ricderr:

Yep...He has even dedicated entire posts on the subject. I typed numerous comments on it , and many others here have discussed the issue. The models have had there own thread for the better part of a day. I have come to the realization that some do not understand how the models actually work and compute or how Mets apply them to there forecast. Therefore I no longer address the issue.


that's because you can channel your "inner peace" better than most.....you are a man to be admired hydrus....




All things are God. Each in there own way at one with all. Inner peace is boundless..It helps one to extract the full promise of their being..:)
Quoting 423. hydrus:

Yep...He has even dedicated entire posts on the subject. I typed numerous comments on it , and many others here have discussed the issue. The models have had there own thread for the better part of a day. I have come to the realization that some do not understand how the models actually work and compute or how Mets apply them to their forecast. Therefore I no longer address the issue.

If for example the types of people who only attack meteorologists for getting a forecast wrong had any clue how the models work or meteorologists apply them, maybe people would have more respect for meteorology and model forecasts.
But of course, it seems that there always some who, even if they had a clue, would still insist they know better. Plus, that would require a lot of hard work and thought, and learning, none of which are usually in the best interest of people who boastfully attack people in a field that is over his/her head.

I'm not expecting people to have a clue how most model forecasts work, it's ok to be ignorant. Ignorant never means stupid. There were many people who have been very smart in ages of the past who were ignorant of what is common knowledge today. We are all ignorant about most things, and wouldn't have the time in a human life span not to anyway. What is stupid is when someone who is knowingly ignorant thinks his/her silly opinion matters more and is more accurate than hard established research and work of experts in a science.
I just want to mention that it's in the mid 40s and we have had lots of sunshine here in Berlin. That is all :)
Quoting weatherbro:


Atlanta is the most de-southernized city in the south imho. A lot of folks from the north(and all over) have moved to the now so-called Dixie City. It's the fastest-growing metropolis in the US. Miami is not far behind. In fact, Miami has an accent very akin to NYC/New England.
Atlanta is number 52 on the list for fastest growing US cities. Miami is number 123. Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Colorado are the states with the fastest growing cities. Link
Quoting 422. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the big picture headline from NWS for the next few days. Goes without saying with all the hard freeze warnings for parts of the S-SE that folks need to take care of pets, plants, and check on exposed pipes (drip faucets) before turning in tonight. Gonna be lots of busted pipes in the South over the next few days. A "duh" tip; if you do the faucet drip precaution, make sure you drip the faucet with "hot" water and try to run the faucets which are furthest way from the water heater so you get the warm flow going through as many pipes as possible in the overnight hours.



Cold air continues across eastern U.S., records threatened

Exceptionally cold air will dominate the eastern half of the U.S. on Wednesday as an arctic cold front makes its way toward the East Coast. Many records will be threatened as temperatures plummet to as much as 25-30 degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs in the single digits across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and overnight lows forecast below zero from Bismarck to Buffalo. 

Doesn't make sense. Everybody "dripping" water lowers the water pressure then it stops "dripping", then the pipes freeze because the "dripping" stopped. Not to mention lowering the water pressure for fire fighting. Better idea is to shut the water off to the house and "drain the house".
Sure, it will be "inconvenient" but better than busted pipes. Done so many times here in Houston.
Quoting largeeyes:
I just want to mention that it's in the mid 40s and we have had lots of sunshine here in Berlin. That is all :)
It's 48 here in SE Alabama too. Somehow, Berlin's weather has gotten stuck here. :-)
442. HouGalv08
2:37 PM EST on February 18, 2015


Thanks for that great advice.............It does make more sense than the "drip"; problem is most local Mets and TWC always tell folks to drip the faucets.
Quoting 444. weathermanwannabe:

442. HouGalv08
2:37 PM EST on February 18, 2015


Thanks for that great advice.............It does make more sense than the "drip"; problem is most local Mets and TWC always tell folks to drip the faucets.


............It seems like you need a new ............keyboard.
............It seems like you need a new ............keyboard.



ahem....some of us like to use multiple periods...instead of proper punctuation.........
Quoting 394. Grothar:



Hey. Don't you think we get bored with sunny days and warm tropical breezes?


lol, I know I do if it goes on too long. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather live down here hands down. However, I do like the fall and winter seasonal change, just in a more moderated Florida kind of way. I prefer Central and northern Florida's winters over south Florida because they are still mild but consistently see more cool air events than south Florida. It get cool enough in this part of the state to give you a taste of something different, but also leaves just as fast, and warm weather quickly returns just like taking a vacation.

Plus because it doesn't last long its fun like a storm, and it provides an interesting change and contrast to the jungle foliage and warm weather looking landscape. But then I want my Florida weather back, people up north can keep their endless cloudy cold days below freezing and heaps of ice everywhere that won't melt. Who wants to live in a freezer for a whole season?

The only time it was consistently was very cold in Florida since I've lived here for a whole season was the winter of 2010/2011, that was obnoxiously cold to where I hated it. I think Tampa's January statistics ranked as cold as typical winter in Tennessee.

a friend told me he likes to keep the snow all around the house it acts like a blanket in these extreme cold snaps
449. MahFL
Quoting 422. weathermanwannabe:

... make sure you drip the faucet with "hot" water and try to run the faucets which are furthest way from the water heater so you get the warm flow going through as many pipes as possible in the overnight hours....


Running the hot water faucet won't help the cold water faucet, as it's served by a separate pipe. The Red Cross recommends running the cold faucet.
Quoting 447. Jedkins01:



lol, I know I do if it goes on too long. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather live down here hands down. However, I do like the fall and winter seasonal change, just in a more moderated Florida kind of way. I prefer Central and northern Florida's winters over south Florida because they are still mild but consistently see more cool air events than south Florida. It get cool enough in this part of the state to give you a taste of something different, but also leaves just as fast, and warm weather quickly returns just like taking a vacation.

Plus because it doesn't last long its fun like a storm, and it provides an interesting change and contrast to the jungle foliage and warm weather looking landscape. But then I want my Florida weather back, people up north can keep their endless cloudy cold days below freezing and heaps of ice everywhere that won't melt. Who wants to live in a freezer for a whole season?

The only time it was consistently was very cold in Florida since I've lived here for a whole season was the winter of 2010/2011, that was obnoxiously cold to where I hated it. I think Tampa's January statistics ranked as cold as typical winter in Tennessee.




That winter was brutal. Many days of hard freezes in Tampa. I'll never forget one day where the high did not get out of the 30s. I had never seen that before and may never again.
The polar Vortex is making return to D.C..

Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear
Makin the tears rain down like a MON-soon

Link
Quoting 439. Jedkins01:


If for example the types of people who only attack meteorologists for getting a forecast wrong had any clue how the models work or meteorologists apply them, maybe people would have more respect for meteorology and model forecasts.
But of course, it seems that there always some who, even if they had a clue, would still insist they know better. Plus, that would require a lot of hard work and thought, and learning, none of which are usually in the best interest of people who boastfully attack people in a field that is over his/her head.

I'm not expecting people to have a clue how most model forecasts work, it's ok to be ignorant. Ignorant never means stupid. There were many people who have been very smart in ages of the past who were ignorant of what is common knowledge today. We are all ignorant about most things, and wouldn't have the time in a human life span not to anyway. What is stupid is when someone who is knowingly ignorant thinks his/her silly opinion matters more and is more accurate than hard established research and work of experts in a science.
Well put..Most here know there are individuals that routinely argue for the purpose of arguing, not to exchange meaningful information , or share important findings from scientific data that takes hard work, time, and funding to acquire. Someone that has to force there opinion here or anywhere instead of explaining the truth or facts behind it will usually not be taken seriously.
Quoting 334. StormTrackerScott:



Saw nearly 70" last year and we are already off to a fast start again this year and I worry that with every model except one showing El-Nino that a predominate westerly flow maybe in place again this Summer as was the case last year.


Yeah I looked at last years rain gauge totals in West Central Florida, most places saw between 62 and 68 inches of rain for the year, the only exception below 60 was Tampa International Airport at 56 inches. But again, not surprising, as I've discussed that Tampa International is always a bit drier over a long term for some reason than stations even a few mils away not sure why but it is. Whether it be wetter than average years or drier than average. Tampa Almost always get less rain year to date than most other sites in Florida including all the other ones in the Tampa Bay area and Central Florida.
It's always puzzled me, oh well.

Last 3 to 4 years actually, rainfall has been over 60 inches for rain gauge sites in the Tampa Bay area, and over the last 10 years only a couple years saw below average rainfall, the rest were near or above.

So any water shortages we've had have been due to the fact that Florida has a very shallow area that can actually store drinking water and we waste it more than most areas because we have high yearly average rain but fail to realize that not as much of it can be stored long term than many continental areas due to it being a relatively new landmass that has less available room for underground water storage.

Whatever the case, some have worried about water shortages and drought in Florida for a while because of our sandy soil which dries out quickly and doesn't sore water well, and because we waste so much fresh water as a state. However, like of said, precip data doesn't seem to indicate any reason to be concerned about drought, no signs of any climate drying, if anything it's trending a bit wetter over the last decade.

All we have to do is learn to conserve and use water better, and learn to convert more salt water for drinking use and leave more of the rain water to the plants and wildlife given that our watery climate is composed of plants and animals that rely on lots of lakes, rivers, wet forests and such.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2015

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2015 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2015

***Areas of snow from the Great Lakes to New England***

***Historic cold for the eastern U.S. late this week***

***Remaining mild and dry for the western United States***

The overall weather pattern through the end of the week will continue to
be featured with a pronounced upper level trough over the eastern half of
the country, and a big upper level ridge for the western states. This
will keep the West Coast, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest
warmer and drier than normal, and the central and eastern parts of the
U.S. much colder than normal. Although the weather is pleasant out west,
the drought continues for California and much of the Intermountain West,
and no appreciable rain is in the forecast over the next couple of days.
There may be a few showers over western Washington state, but that is
about it.

Over the eastern half of the nation, we all know that it has been quite
cold over the past week. Get ready for an even more impressive surge of
arctic air later this week as another cold front drops south from Canada.
There are indications that this could be some of the coldest weather since
the mid-1990s for parts of the Southeast U.S., Mid-Atlantic, and central
Appalachians. An eddy of the polar vortex will add to the potency of the
surface cold front, thus creating a deep layer of bitterly cold air.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the teens for
many of these areas, and overnight lows could reach zero degrees or even
lower in some areas!
After Friday, temperatures are forecast to moderate
and become more tolerable.

In the precipitation department, no major areas of rain or snow are
expected over the next 48 hours. There will be periods of light snow and
snow showers from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and New England as
shortwave energy with the arctic front moves across the region. Some lake
effect snow showers will be possible as well. Lingering showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible for the Florida peninsula before the cold
front clears the state by later Wednesday.

D. Hamrick


The cold part is definitely right. My low was supposed be 29 but the actual was 24. It's supposed to be 20 tonight but the last three days forecasts lows have been too warm by 3-5 degrees. I hope it's right this time. It's a real struggle to keep the greenhouse above 32 when the air temperature gets much below 20. I added an extra heater for tonight and tomorrow night, which should be the coldest. My electric bill is going to be terrible. It was windy earlier today but the winds are starting to relax, which is not a good thing for the cold tonight. We touched 50 for about 5 minutes but now it's back down to 48. By Saturday, we go into the mid-60's and about 70 on Sunday, with an outside chance for severe thunderstorms. The roller coaster ride continues.

EDIT: Forgot to say I did get 0.54" of rain out of the last system, 0.41" of which fell in a half hour as that skinny little band of showers came through. I've about given up on the idea of something like a nice day long rain, but I'll take what I can get.
Quoting 451. washingtonian115:

The polar Vortex is making return to D.C..

Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear
Makin the tears rain down like a MON-soon

Link


It'll be gone this weekend when we torch into the 50s with rain.
High temperatures are currently forecast to reach the mid- to upper-20s tomorrow and Friday. If this forecast does verify, this will be the first time Wilmington, NC has recorded two consecutive sub-freezing days since February 1996 (before I was born). Brr...
Holding steady between 7 & 9, depending on cloud cover, this afternoon in S C IL. Winds have mainly been 10 - 20 mph W-WNW, gusting to low 30s, but have seen some NW starting to sneak in this p.m. Needless to say, sub zero windchill, which should peak in the minus 20s as the winds die down a bit when we head toward minus 5,6 tomorrow morning.

See the long range has single digit lows for early next week as well. Weekend precip chances now all at 50% and high temp for Sat now 35 w/ mix, snow Fri & Sat evening. Hope it changes to all snow, at worst sleet. Those high 60s 10 days ago seem such a distant memory.

Picked up another inch or two of dry fluff last night, but it's being blown to the east now.
Despite frigid conditions in the East, U.S. seeing more record warmth this winter

... Although residents of the Midwest, South, and East Coast are justified in complaining about the seemingly never-ending cold and snow, so far this winter, the warmth in the West is outpacing the cold when it comes to record temperatures and overall endurance of the unusual temperatures.

According to data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina, there were 3,829 daily high temperature records set or tied in the U.S. during the past 30 days, as well as 3,368 record warm overnight low temperature records set or tied. This compares to just 498 records set or tied for the coldest high temperature, along with 386 daily records set or tied for the coldest low temperature ...
Quoting 425. ricderr:


I'm just going to let this hurricane season come as it is.



nope....folks..let me help you out as i have rattled the chicken bones......read my tarot cards....checked the alignment of the stars....messaged spirits through a seance.....researched tea leaves.....and of course....looked at the farmers almanac......

THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON WILL PRODUCE NO HURRICANES....

that's a fact jack....nothing more needs to be said....subject is closed....next topic please


well I would say for that watch wait and see
Quoting ricderr:
............It seems like you need a new ............keyboard.



ahem....some of us like to use multiple periods...instead of proper punctuation.........
Ric, since you refuse to use the quote feature, it would really help if you would at least put what you're quoting in italics. Maybe put some dashes under it, or something. I have a really hard time figuring out where a quote ends and what you reply. I know the multiple periods thing is your trademark. It's irritating, but at least I can mentally add punctuation. :-)
Quoting 450. tampabaymatt:



That winter was brutal. Many days of hard freezes in Tampa. I'll never forget one day where the high did not get out of the 30s. I had never seen that before and may never again.


Yeah I wasn't up here at FSU yet back then so I was still n the Tampa Bay area, and thank God, it would have been even worse here. Apparently lows in the teens were numerous that winter up here.
But yeah that winter was horrible in the Tampa Bay area, I remember having a mix of cold rain and sleet that day and the high was only in the 30's, it bottomed out to 24 overnight into the next morning. And all the cold rain refroze and made everything slick and dangerous later at night. It still stands as the coldest morning ever recorded on the weather station since it was installed in 2003 at my parents house in Pinellas county.

I had gone out with some friends that night and encountered black ice that formed on one of the overpasses, yes the bridge was freaking iced and they even had traffic warning messages about it, which is amazingly well prepared considering it NEVER happens in Pinellas, lol, it was only 11 PM at the time but was already below freezing.
It also was so darn cold that HIGHS stayed below 50 for several days during the worst of that cold period too. It was so strange, most days throughout all of January were highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. It was rare that we hit 60 even for a day or two for January, it was so strange,

I don't know if you remember this but the Clearwater beach water temp remarkably dropped below 40 degrees, which was terrible for the sea life, many fish and other sea life washed up dead as the water got so cold. The stench of dead fish, cold water and cold air ruined winter tourism that winter. I remember that it took until June for the gulf temp to actually enjoy being warm enough to swim.
I hope we never see a winter like that again, let's not even get started on how damaging it was for the tropical plant and fruit injury. My parents lost so many plants to cold death that winter, it was terrible.


Quoting 442. HouGalv08:

Doesn't make sense. Everybody "dripping" water lowers the water pressure then it stops "dripping", then the pipes freeze because the "dripping" stopped. Not to mention lowering the water pressure for fire fighting. Better idea is to shut the water off to the house and "drain the house".
Sure, it will be "inconvenient" but better than busted pipes. Done so many times here in Houston.

In Houston, I was always told, dripping did nothing to prevent pipes busting or getting cracks and leaks. I knew an elderly gentleman, when we had a very cold week here, he sat in his attic for 3 days with several hair dryers and heaters. He was obsessed with the pipes busting after 1989 here in Houston. I flying to NE Ohio tomorrow morning. Will be there visiting my parents until Monday. It will be very cold but I am looking forward to the snow. My ski clothes are already there.
Quoting 452. hydrus:

Well put..Most here know there are individuals that routinely argue for the purpose of arguing, not to exchange meaningful information , or share important findings from scientific data that takes hard work, time, and funding to acquire. Someone that has to force there opinion here or anywhere instead of explaining the truth or facts behind it will usually not be taken seriously.


Exactly!



more snow!!
Quoting 453. Jedkins01:



Yeah I looked at last years rain gauge totals in West Central Florida, most places saw between 62 and 68 inches of rain for the year, the only exception below 60 was Tampa International Airport at 56 inches. But again, not surprising, as I've discussed that Tampa International is always a bit drier over a long term for some reason than stations even a few mils away not sure why but it is. Whether it be wetter than average years or drier than average. Tampa Almost always get less rain year to date than most other sites in Florida including all the other ones in the Tampa Bay area and Central Florida.
It's always puzzled me, oh well.

Last 3 to 4 years actually, rainfall has been over 60 inches for rain gauge sites in the Tampa Bay area, and over the last 10 years only a couple years saw below average rainfall, the rest were near or above.

So any water shortages we've had have been due to the fact that Florida has a very shallow area that can actually store drinking water and we waste it more than most areas because we have high yearly average rain but fail to realize that not as much of it can be stored long term than many continental areas due to it being a relatively new landmass that has less available room for underground water storage.

Whatever the case, some have worried about water shortages and drought in Florida for a while because of our sandy soil which dries out quickly and doesn't sore water well, and because we waste so much fresh water as a state. However, like of said, precip data doesn't seem to indicate any reason to be concerned about drought, no signs of any climate drying, if anything it's trending a bit wetter over the last decade.

All we have to do is learn to conserve and use water better, and learn to convert more salt water for drinking use and leave more of the rain water to the plants and wildlife given that our watery climate is composed of plants and animals that rely on lots of lakes, rivers, wet forests and such.


It's been very wet here since last year mainly because of warm nuetral conditions across the Pacifc and if the models are correct with all but one showing El-Nino then this year could be even wetter than last year. Well see!
Quoting 455. Drakoen:



It'll be gone this weekend when we torch into the 50s with rain.
Then I see no point of this cold air...
I'll be honest, relative to the cold we've been seeing and with the February sun, 25 degrees doesn't feel half bad.
Quoting 465. StormTrackerScott:



It's been very wet here since last year mainly because of warm nuetral conditions across the Pacifc and if the tarot cards are correct with all but one showing El-Nino then this year could be even wetter than last year. Well see!


:)
Quoting 454. sar2401:

The cold part is definitely right. My low was supposed be 29 but the actual was 24. It's supposed to be 20 tonight but the last three days forecasts lows have been too warm by 3-5 degrees. I hope it's right this time. It's a real struggle to keep the greenhouse above 32 when the air temperature gets much below 20. I added an extra heater for tonight and tomorrow night, which should be the coldest. My electric bill is going to be terrible. It was windy earlier today but the winds are starting to relax, which is not a good thing for the cold tonight. We touched 50 for about 5 minutes but now it's back down to 48. By Saturday, we go into the mid-60's and about 70 on Sunday, with an outside chance for severe thunderstorms. The roller coaster ride continues.

EDIT: Forgot to say I did get 0.54" of rain out of the last system, 0.41" of which fell in a half hour as that skinny little band of showers came through. I've about given up on the idea of something like a nice day long rain, but I'll take what I can get.

Afternoon, sar. Still breezy here, but the gusts have abated. Mid-50s now, which is much nicer than when I woke up, and warmer than yesterday. The cold woke me up in the wee hours - my house was quite cold. For a minute there I thought the heater had died :o This house really isn't built for the cold, unfortunately. Don't want to complain, though, as many folks are experiencing much, much colder temps.

Similar temps expected tonight/tomorrow morning, high 20s, so not as cold as you. Hope you can keep your plants and your pipes warm enough.

Got 0.93" here from that front two days ago. Seems they really do lose steam when they get to you :)
Quoting 461. Jedkins01:



Yeah I wasn't up here at FSU yet back then so I was still n the Tampa Bay area, and thank God, it would have been even worse here. Apparently lows in the teens were numerous that winter up here.
But yeah that winter was horrible in the Tampa Bay area, I remember having a mix of cold rain and sleet that day and the high was only in the 30's, it bottomed out to 24 overnight into the next morning. And all the cold rain refroze and made everything slick and dangerous later at night. It still stands as the coldest morning ever recorded on the weather station since it was installed in 2003 at my parents house in Pinellas county.

I had gone out with some friends that night and encountered black ice that formed on one of the overpasses, yes the bridge was freaking iced and they even had traffic warning messages about it, which is amazingly well prepared considering it NEVER happens in Pinellas, lol, it was only 11 PM at the time but was already below freezing.
It also was so darn cold that HIGHS stayed below 50 for several days during the worst of that cold period too. It was so strange, most days throughout all of January were highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. It was rare that we hit 60 even for a day or two for January, it was so strange,

I don't know if you remember this but the Clearwater beach water temp remarkably dropped below 40 degrees, which was terrible for the sea life, many fish and other sea life washed up dead as the water got so cold. The stench of dead fish, cold water and cold air ruined winter tourism that winter. I remember that it took until June for the gulf temp to actually enjoy being warm enough to swim.
I hope we never see a winter like that again, let's not even get started on how damaging it was for the tropical plant and fruit injury. My parents lost so many plants to cold death that winter, it was terrible.





I was living in the Brandon area during that winter, which routinely gets a lot colder than Pinellas and Tampa proper. I remember one day during that stretch my wife and I were driving home from dinner at around 7 PM and the car was registering an outside temp of 34 degrees, at 7 PM! I knew that was going to be a brutal night. Haha.
Quoting 310. StormTrackerScott:

A Whopping 1.58" last night! 3.60" now for February here in Longwood. 6.91" for the year so far this is more than double what is average for this time of year.


Yeah that turned into a pretty good event, that late night rain band was pretty potent. Every rain gauge I saw got between 1.25 and 1.75 in Central Florida for the event. Interesting the the HRR has been doing better consistently with QPF than the euro or GFS with precip events down there. The GFS and euro had qpf in the 0.50-0.70 down there, while the HRR showed a good swath of more than one inch, the HRR definitely prevailed.

I got 0.59 which isn't bad, but Central Florida has been beating us up here with rain totals for every cold front so far in February, lol.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 474. tampabaymatt:



I was living in the Brandon area during that winter, which routinely gets a lot colder than Pinellas and Tampa proper. I remember one day during that stretch my wife and I were driving home from dinner at around 7 PM and the car was registering an outside temp of 34 degrees, at 7 PM! I knew that was going to be a brutal night. Haha.


Yeah I think Bradenton is often colder because it's not quite as big of a city, and the land is very rural just northeast of there, so I thin cold air often blows in there from the northeast in the cooler more rural areas during cold events.

I still can't believe how cold that winter was, it's amazing that actually wasn't the coldest winter on record in the Tampa Bay area, I think it was the 4th coldest from what I remember. I don't feel like digging up the actual right now lol, but pretty sure it was 3rd or 4th coldest. As horrible as it was you'd think it was the coldest, lol.

Not to say 3rd or 4th isn't rare though of course.
Quoting Xandra:
Despite frigid conditions in the East, U.S. seeing more record warmth this winter

... Although residents of the Midwest, South, and East Coast are justified in complaining about the seemingly never-ending cold and snow, so far this winter, the warmth in the West is outpacing the cold when it comes to record temperatures and overall endurance of the unusual temperatures.

According to data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina, there were 3,829 daily high temperature records set or tied in the U.S. during the past 30 days, as well as 3,368 record warm overnight low temperature records set or tied. This compares to just 498 records set or tied for the coldest high temperature, along with 386 daily records set or tied for the coldest low temperature ...

I don't think using the number of new temperature records set is a very good indicator for overall climate. Temperature anomaly
is generally more useful than absolute temperature. The shear number of stations on the West Coast, combined with a much more variable climate, is almost always going to show more high and cold records than the East. In addition, January wasn't a very cold month almost anywhere but the Northeast (where all the media live) and south Texas.



February is orders of magnitude colder east of the Rockies. It's also orders of magnitude warmer west of the Rockies. The warmth in the West might be offset by the cold in the East this month, so we might see to about a zero change in overall warming in the US. As long as the West stays this warm, how cold it gets in the East is almost irrelevant in terms of climate.

Quoting 358. LAbonbon:


"In recent decades, ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels"

Now that could be considered even more amazing.


How did they measure the temps back then?
Quoting 371. cRRKampen:


Right, like IPCC used to be named 'IPGW'.
And never mind last year was a #1 again, no?
A number 1 in how many years of reliable data, and how long has the Earth been in existence?
Quoting 385. StormTrackerScott:



The model i posted is the CFSv2 and it updates every 6 hours on Weatherbell and yes it does show a strip of 3C to 4C anomalies with a average of likely 2C for the area as a whole. Again good try to you as well.
Hi, if your using Weather Bell, what is JB saying about a possible Nino this summer?
Quoting 425. ricderr:


I'm just going to let this hurricane season come as it is.



nope....folks..let me help you out as i have rattled the chicken bones......read my tarot cards....checked the alignment of the stars....messaged spirits through a seance.....researched tea leaves.....and of course....looked at the farmers almanac......

THE 2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON WILL PRODUCE NO HURRICANES....

that's a fact jack....nothing more needs to be said....subject is closed....next topic please


Are you talking about the Atlantic, or all tropical basins?
Quoting 479. NativeSun:

How did they measure the temps back then?
from core samples and the type of material it consisted of
485. vis0

Quoting 8. barbamz:

Wow, doc: "paleotempestology", "speleothem" - new stuff for me: I will try to keep those words in mind in order to smugly throw them around at next opportunity, lol. - Very interesting findings, and thank you for telling us.



am i at the right place, wxsite? Those words seem more connected to a checkup? At least i learned 2 new words "doc" & "smugly" i hope i pronounced them correctly?
486. vis0

Quoting 222. BaltimoreBrian:


THE FOLLOWING IS NOT FOR SAR2401 TO READ it might bring on convoluted convolutions.

This was after people from "other (king) worlds" dominated their (ancient people(s) of "gnowledge") "thoughts".
Originally the sticking into you know where was done to infants after infants being in specific dark caves for 3 days & 3 nights. These caves had certain crystal energy properties that react to low sun activities and create many of those flying plasma +++ orbs many call UFOs and are caught on video throughout South America, that's how they were picked by ancient "gnowledgeable" people observing which caves had "sphorbs" hovering over them, specially the plasma balls that make right turns.
 These plasma balls many call UFOs i call "'sphorbs" and are the equatorial, low sun / INWARD activities version of the polar regions high sun/ outward activities Aurora Borealis.   

As to the original "stickings" if the infant did not cry it had the ability to go into deep meditation and wore the purple colours and becam,e spiritual leaders that could read wxtrends years ahead of others.
 
MANY hundreds+++++++++++++++++++ of yrs later that became a religious way of life for some in Northern Africa (circumsn) & in S. America it became more to do with  blood, battles and barbarisms due to the influence of European settlers beliefs, some called religious beliefs and that "times/periods" way of thinking.



Human development is not linear its cyclical

for ~12k yrs we LEAN TOWARDS male dominated, selfish, listen to elders without questioning, build outward & invade (now called war)
THEN

for ~12k yrs we LEAN TOWARDS female dominated, selfless, listen to youngsters without questioning, build inward, share (now called social)

Also being physical being these cycles blend as we learn by blend i mean go towards lower extreme swings of the pendulum.

What do i say causes these ~12,000 yr cycles i call duo-deciums? (really like every 11,500 yrs)

Its 1 of 3 "light" links that allowed humanity to exist as beings of self, soul & spirit (no not soooulll train), this particular cycle is caused by the Planets' Precession and this solar system maintaining a link between its sibling stars...stars?
only 1 Sun?!
ah but its sibling black star ~16 Lt Yrs away maintains a counter flow to out bright Star.
Study what happens when deep sounds are played onto a complex beings (humans) chakras, NOT GOOD (why harrp is bad cause its also sound from physically grounded sources, so is electrical "hum") now imagine sounds/resonances lower than 0.1 to the power of -32 bathing this planet every other 12,000 yrs or ~ half Earth precession, these "sounds" are ethereally grounded (as the ml-d) that is a healthier way to transmit sounds . Other clues left in ancient scriptures are what some today call religious hand gestures, its really how the planets & 2 stars dance in the heavens, in scriptures its called the battles between Lucifer (prince of darkness/black holes) and Sun of God and goes on & on no one winning cause its a cycle, but i digress this is a weather site. Tomorrow partly cloudy with some Sun, highs in the lower uppers, with 100% chance of something


sincerely part Mayan/Mian (doesn't make me right just "Gnowledgeable") or ya can call me, nut (Ra) though i'm wearing clothing and am a dude.
,peace