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Intense heat wave bakes the Eastern U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:27 PM GMT on July 22, 2011

Intense heat seared large sections of the U.S. on Thursday, with dozens of new daily high temperature records adding to the formidable number of new records piling up this week. On Wednesday, 140 daily maximum temperature records were tied or broken, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This represents over 2.4% of all stations in the U.S., which is an exceptionally high number of records for one day. Over the past 30 days, daily high temperature records have outpaced low temperature records by more than 4 to 1, 1859 to 453, and by almost three to one over the past year. Daily high temperature records set yesterday included 100° at Detroit, the first time in sixteen years that city has seen the century mark. Two hyperthermia deaths were reported in the Detroit area, bringing the heat wave death toll for the U.S. to 24 for the week. Newark, NJ hit 103°, just 2° below that city's all-time record hottest temperature of 105°. That record may be challenged today, as the temperature in Newark at 11am was already 100°. Other notable temperatures yesterday included 101° in Syracuse, NY, only 1° below that city's all-time high of 102°; 95° in Binghamton, NY, 3° below their all-time high; 102° in Toledo, 3° below their all-time high; 102° in Raleigh, 3° below that city's all-time high of 105°. Accompanying the heat was high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution reached code red, "Unhealthy", in Gary Indiana yesterday, and was code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" in thirteen other states.

The blast furnace-like conditions will continue today across much of New England and the mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures are expected to climb above 100° in Washington D.C., Baltimore, and New York City. Air pollution is expected to exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 18 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA. The pollution will be worst in Washington D.C. and Baltimore, where "code red" conditions--"Unhealthy"--are expected. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to move through.


Figure 1. July temperatures in the lower 48 states between 1895 - 2010 showed a warming of about 1.2°F (red line) during that time period. The warmest July on record was 1936, with an average temperature of 3.1°F above average. The year 2006 was a close second, just 0.1°F behind. If model projections of an increase in U.S. temperature of 4 - 6.5°F by 2100 are correct, an average July in 2050 will have temperatures warmer than the record warm temperatures of 1936. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

The summer of 2011's place in history
July 2011 is on pace to be one of the five hottest months in U.S. history, but may have a tough time surpassing the hottest month of all time, July 1936. In that year, the dry soils of the Midwest's Dust Bowl helped create the most extreme heat wave in U.S. history during July. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a look back at this great heat wave in his current post. I expect that by the time July 2011 is done, it will be a top-five warmest July on record, but will not surpass July of 1936 or July of 2006 (which holds second place, just 0.1° cooler than July 1936.) The summer of 1936 was also the hottest summer in U.S. history. That mark will also be tough to surpass this year, since June 2011 was the 26th warmest June on record, and June 1936 was the 11th warmest. August 1936 was the 4th warmest August on record. At this point, there's no telling how warm August 2011 will be, though NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a much above average chance of warmer than average conditions over 95% of the contiguous U.S for the first week of August.


Figure 2. The 8 - 14 day outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts much above average chances of warmer than normal temperatures during the last few days of July and the first four days of August.

Climate change and U.S. heat waves
The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--has been exceptionally high during this week's heat wave, due to the presence of very high amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere. That has made this heat wave a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities in the Midwest were due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Today's extreme heat index values over the mid-Altantic are due, in large part, to near record warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic coast. According to the UK's HADSST2 data set, sea surface temperatures between 35° - 40°N and 75 ° - 70°W, along the coast from North Carolina to New Jersey, were 5.4°F (3.0°C) above average during June 2011. This is the warmest such temperature difference for any month in the historical record, going back to the 1800s. The most recent sea surface temperature anomaly maps from NOAA show that the July ocean temperatures have not been quite as extreme, but ocean temperatures in this region during July have averaged nearly 2°C above average, the second highest July ocean temperatures on record, behind 2010.

During the 1930s, there was a high frequency of heat waves due to high daytime temperatures resulting in large part from an extended multi-year period of intense drought. By contrast, in the past 3 to 4 decades, there has been an increasing trend in high-humidity heat waves, which are characterized by the persistence of extremely high nighttime temperatures. In particular, Gaffen and Ross (1999) found that summer nighttime moisture levels increased by 2 - 4% per decade for every region of the contiguous U.S. between 1961 - 1995. Hot and humid conditions at night for a multi-day period are highly correlated with heat stress mortality during heat waves.

Not surprisingly, the frequency, intensity, and humidity of heat waves is expected to increase dramatically in coming decades, if the forecasts of a warmer world due to global warming come true. A study presented in the U.S. Global Change Program Impacts Report, 2009, predicted that by 2080 - 2099, a heat wave that has a 1-in-20 chance of occurring in today's climate will occur every 2 - 3 years over 95% of the contiguous U.S. (Figure 3.) I estimate that this week's U.S. heat wave has been a 1-in-5 to 1-in-20 year event for most locations affected, so heat waves like this week's will be a routine occurrence, nearly every year, by the end of the century. According to a study published by scientists at Stanford University last month, though, this may be too optimistic. In their press release, lead author Noah Diffenbaugh said, "According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years."


Figure 3. Simulations for 2080-2099 indicate how currently rare extremes (a 1-in-20-year event) are projected to become more commonplace. A day so hot that it is currently experienced once every 20 years would occur every other year or more frequently by the end of the century under the higher emissions scenario. Image credit: U.S. Global Change Program Impacts Report, 2009.

Arctic sea ice continues its record retreat
Sea ice in the Arctic continues to melt at the fastest pace in recorded history, as July ice extent has been averaging 5 - 10% less than the record low values set in 2007. According to the July 18 update from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the rapid decline in the past few weeks is related to persistent above-average temperatures, and an early onset of the melting season due to especially low snow cover in Europe and Asia during May and June. High pressure and clear skies have dominated in the Arctic this summer, but that pattern is changing. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows that low pressure will dominate the Arctic for the next two weeks, bringing cloudier skies and less melting. This will likely slow down the melting enough so that sea ice loss will no longer be on a record pace by the 2nd week of August.

Tropical Storm Cindy
Tropical Storm Bret is dead, and Tropical Storm Cindy is moving over very chilly waters of 20°C, and does not have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

Invest 90L: an African wave worth watching
An African wave (Invest 90L) near 14N 55W, 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at about 15 - 20 mph. This wave is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara, and will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles tonight through Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots.

Dry air will continue to be a problem for 90L through Sunday, but once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. However, the expected track of the disturbance takes it over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, which would inhibit development. Furthermore, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday, and could increase further by Monday, according to most of the computer models. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of 90L. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Tuesday, over the northwestern Bahama Islands just off the coast of Southeast Florida. The other models generally depict too much wind shear for the wave to develop. Right now, the deck appears stacked against development for 90L through at least Monday. NHC is predicting a 20% chance of development by Sunday. The eventual track of 90L next week has been trending more to the south in recent model runs, as they are generally depicting a weaker trough of low pressure developing over the Eastern U.S. This reduces the chances 90L will move up the U.S. East Coast, and increases the chances that it will enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 4. Satellite image of Hurricane Dora taken July 20, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific weakening
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification yesterday, topping out as an impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. However, high wind shear acted to knock a hole in Dora's eyewall, which has now collapsed, and steady weakening of the storm will occur today. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June. A NOAA P-3 aircraft will be investigating Dora over the next few days, to learn more about how Eastern Pacific hurricanes weaken when they move over colder water.

Vacation
This will be my last post until Thursday, unless 90L gets far more interesting than the current forecast. I'm headed up north to Lake Michigan to cool off and relax for a few days. In my absence, Angela Fritz will be handling the blogging duties, and she will have a post on the latest forecast for 90L on Saturday. Angela is on Pacific time, so her posts will be later in the day than I make them.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning, I got to head out at 7 or so, so I'm up early. Getting my coffee ready, 90L isn't impressive atm and probably wont ever be.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Good morning, I got to head out at 7 or so, so I'm up early. Getting my coffee ready, 90L isn't impressive atm and probably wont ever be.
you're up really early lol

Yeah doesn't look to impressive at the moment. It's interesting that it doesn't seem to be following the convective cycles. It looked best convection-wise around the afternoon and has since dissipated a bit.
Morning all.

Well I will keep rooting for the current model tracks, that general track will be a godsend to SE texas even if 90L doesn't develop.
Chicago has had 5 to 6 inches of rain overnight. Lots of flooding. Still raining. Weather has been really unusual here.
1506. lennit
did 90L find a better environment to the north..that area looks better then it ever did. 850 vort is closer to that area now
Looks like 90L experiancing some midlevel shear right now
Miami NWS Discussion

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A WELL ESTABLISHED TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EASTWARD OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD PASS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK
WITH AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BEFORE THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE
REGION.



Good morning.

So far my gauge has picked .34 since midnight.The rain was with thunder and lightning.Let's see what happens today with the rainbands as they move thru PR,to see if flooding occurs.

The wave now in the Eastern Atlantic looks good (Better than 90L) and may be a player next week.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.



What happened to 90L overnight? Diurnal max killed it instead of helping it.
odd system agree with the character tom taylor
The northern part of 90L looks like it might be where the convection will try to get going.Will have to wait and see if this will be the trend.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Looks like some weak circulation trying to get going in the Eastern Caribbean now
not sure I'm seeing that but what if it does reform on that N part? Could get intersting again for FL
If 90 does like it did yesterday, it'll pick up steam in a few hours. It does look like at the very least the dry air is getting out of the way in front of it.
wind shear hitting invest 90L
Man I thought 90L would be cooking this morning, looks like someone forgot to turn the oven on. Either that or forgot to pay the gas bill..
going down to 20% at 8 am
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
wind shear hitting invest 90L
Yea maybe 90L a gonner and we'll have wait for the next wave. Hope it brings some rain to FL anyway.
90L certainly lost convection, but it's trying to re-fire. Haven't seen the last of this wave yet.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
90L certainly lost convection, but it's trying to re-fire. Haven't seen the last of this wave yet.


Having said that, I now doubt that we'll get a named storm from this.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
going down to 20% at 8 am
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
31 west!!
Good morning, everyone. I see 90L has lost organization. Now if that rain could come up to Texas and Louisiana...
Quoting DestinJeff:
Percentage in TWO not necessarily a reflection of current or past satellite imagery. More likely they will keep at 30%, due the next 48 hours part of the equation.

I think we see something going on south and west of current ofcl location of 90L, on the west side of the islands around 63W

or not.
I can see that. It is evident on IR shortwave around 62/63W and 14N.
currently 20 to 30 knots shear conditions look unfavorable for development for the next 2 to 3 days for this one depending on which way it drifts



Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. I see 90L has lost organization. Now if that rain could come up to Texas and Louisiana...


Good morning everyone also. Need i say the MODELS win again over human thoughts..........LOL.....J/K
...still 90L a decent sized TW...
90L could really give some good rain to Texas and Louisiana if it would come this way. I spent Thursday with my daughter going down the heritage trail here in Louisiana playing tourist. We passed miles and miles of dead cornfields. This drought has hit the farmers so bad.
ATCF says 90L's pressure is up to 1013 from 1012; winds are still at 25:

AL, 90, 2011072312, , BEST, 0, 153N, 615W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Good Morning..........Don't have much to say except that we are still in July and climatology is tough to beat at times so this wave may not develop although it did look awefully good yesterday afternoon; I was a beleiver yesterday afternoon and did get caught up in the excitement............. :)
1536. ncstorm
06Z NOGAPS has already started the cape verde season..

Link

Quoting ncstorm:
06Z NOGAPS has already started the cape verde season..

Link

Quoting ncstorm:
06Z NOGAPS has already started the cape verde season..

Link

Quoting ncstorm:
06Z NOGAPS has already started the cape verde season..

Link


link doesnt work
Quoting ncstorm:
06Z NOGAPS has already started the cape verde season..

Link

IDK if I am understanding this right but looks to me like 90L crosses Cuba towards the GOM, two more systems in the Caribbean in a week and a hurricane in the central Atlantic.
90L has really just about collapsed since last night, any surface circulation formed yet, i have yet to see one
wow!! the wind shear going up everywhere!!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IDK if I am understanding this right but looks to me like 90L crosses Cuba towards the GOM, two more systems in the Caribbean in a week and a hurricane in the central Atlantic.

does that hurricane recurve or keep going west?
7 systems in this graph... Can you imagine we all in this blog dealing with 4 Atlantic storms?







Quoting neutralenso:

does that hurricane recurve or keep going west?
Looks like it is moving NW but only shows it as far as 40W.
Wave at 31W has good vorticity but I don't see any convergence.
1546. spathy
I am seeing a good spin around 63W 12N no convection to speak of but what looks to be tighter spin.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IDK if I am understanding this right but looks to me like 90L crosses Cuba towards the GOM, two more systems in the Caribbean in a week and a hurricane in the central Atlantic.

I saw 90L turn into a weak TD or something and hit Texas, two systems in the central atlantic, one which stayed weak and hit Hispaniola, the other one slightly stronger and over Caribbean waters, and a strong cyclone (hurricane?) over the Central Atlantic. I think I saw something in the SW Caribbean, as well as a small disturbance ESE of Trinidad & Tobago but I'm not too sure. Both of them were at the end of the run anyway.
1548. aquak9
good morning everyone!

Awww geeez, why is everyone looking down sadly into their coffee cups? Stirring slowly, only looking up to stare wistfully off into space?

C'mon guys! (slams palm on countertop) There'll be more invests! I promise. It's only July. (points to Chart over desert display) We'll get more action, more BAM suites, more 8th-octant MJO action.

Blueberry muffins for everyone; tab's on me.
1549. spathy
Link

This is the only view I can see the spin from.
So it may just be optical delusions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.h tml
1551. spathy
Pass the butter, Aqua.
Quoting spathy:
I am seeing a good spin around 63W 12N no convection to speak of but what looks to be tighter spin.
yeap i see that spin too it appears to me 90L split over night , lets see if convection fires ove that center, i would not be surprised if something developes over the northern leeward islands with all that convection
1553. P451
18 hours of 90L - WV Imagery ending 815am et

Quoting spathy:
Link

This is the only view I can see the spin from.
So it may just be optical delusions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.h tml
Link

Can see better on this.
Quoting aquak9:
good morning everyone!

Awww geeez, why is everyone looking down sadly into their coffee cups? Stirring slowly, only looking up to stare wistfully off into space?

C'mon guys! (slams palm on countertop) There'll be more invests! I promise. It's only July. (points to Chart over desert display) We'll get more action, more BAM suites, more 8th-octant MJO action.

Blueberry muffins for everyone; tab's on me.

Yay! Muffins!
1556. emcf30
North side of wave flaring up a bit this morning
1557. aquak9
Here's the butter, spathy. Eat up. You do seem to be suffering from optical delusions. There's nothing of much interest for another 96 hours.
1558. spathy
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Can see better on this.


Yup!
Thanks.
Not much to call home over,but still a spin with my morning coffee and blueberry muffin.
1559. P451
90L lost vorticity and is under higher shear.
1560. Mikla
I believe you are looking at the cloud tops. Use the RGB image and try to ignore the tops and look at what is going on underneath. I don't see any circulation to speak of.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Can see better on this.
Quoting spathy:
I am seeing a good spin around 63W 12N no convection to speak of but what looks to be tighter spin.


That is absolutely correct, spin is further south around 12.5N/63W void of convection but alot tighter!
1562. aquak9
ecmf!! HEY!! where are you? you here in Jax?
Quoting aquak9:
good morning everyone!

Awww geeez, why is everyone looking down sadly into their coffee cups? Stirring slowly, only looking up to stare wistfully off into space?

C'mon guys! (slams palm on countertop) There'll be more invests! I promise. It's only July. (points to Chart over desert display) We'll get more action, more BAM suites, more 8th-octant MJO action.

Blueberry muffins for everyone; tab's on me.


You could click your heels twice and believe the satellite analysis.
Link

shows the tighter spin around 12.5N/63W
Quoting aquak9:
good morning everyone!

Awww geeez, why is everyone looking down sadly into their coffee cups? Stirring slowly, only looking up to stare wistfully off into space?

C'mon guys! (slams palm on countertop) There'll be more invests! I promise. It's only July. (points to Chart over desert display) We'll get more action, more BAM suites, more 8th-octant MJO action.

Blueberry muffins for everyone; tab's on me.
LOL... mornin', aqua.... I better have A blueberry muffin, singular.... lol.... I will have some coffee, though... [pours a cup, inhales appreciatively].

I'd be very interested to know what happened to 90L's circulatiion, though. It's like it hit a brick wall overnight. Rather amazing, actually, considering this wave had that circulation going all the way across the ATL... any speculations on causes?

The other interesting thing I noticed this a.m. is that 90L in whatever form is forecast to move NW and thus impact the Bahamas and FL. So if we do see some reorganization, there's a better chance than thought yesterday of the circulation reconsolidating itself on the N side of the Antilles... which is why I was watching that ULL yesterday.

This is a most interesting system...
1566. spathy
Thanks for the muffin Aqua.
And remember its my delusion and I will cry if I want to.
Oh dang now that song is stuck in my head.
1567. P451
Pressures rising - no circulation.

Just an open wave...an AOI. And with that note, catch ya all in the afternoon.





More rain coming. Why can't it be Texas getting rain?
1569. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You could click your heels twice and believe the satellite analysis.


That product always shows a perfect circulation. It's useless.

SAL keeps on playing an important role, inhibiting tropical development... I wonder if models take this in consideration..

1571. emcf30
Quoting aquak9:
ecmf!! HEY!! where are you? you here in Jax?


Yes I am at the Hyatt off Duval near the Airport. Didnt get back from Hilliard until 11 or so. It sucks up that way but all went well. Glad to be back in civilization. Heading over to the beach with the family
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You could click your heels twice and believe the satellite analysis.
I'm not that much into fairy tales these days... though I did like that Prince of Persia movie Disney had out...
1573. WxLogic
Good Morning... wow... now this is the prime example of the word POOF. :)
thanks for the BBmuffin aqua,sorry for i only eat the muffin top,may i have another....dont right 90l off yet,should get interesting in about 48hrs if it can stay far enough from hispaniola/cuba
1575. aquak9
hey baha- not quite sure what happened to 90L, but I think it knew there was no future, so it just said screw it, I'm outta here. Wait till 93L. That one will drive us crazy.

i'm not even feeling like 90L will bring any rain to the CONUS, Man...I'd love to be wrong.

Spathy- I'm gonna buy you a box of Kleenex Tissues, and write on the side "spathy's tissues for his issues"

emcf- welcome back to human-land. Ya'll oughtta have a gorgeous day at the beach. USE SUNSCREEN it's all bright out there. Watch off to the west, there should be pretty clouds.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... wow... now this is the prime example of the word POOF. :)
Lol... you ain' lyin'.... lol though if PR doesn't hog all the rain there are some points west where some would eagerly great 90L in its present modest form...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
More rain coming. Why can't it be Texas getting rain?


A Flood watch is up for all of PR and VI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
804 AM AST SAT JUL 23 2011

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-240000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0008.110723T1800Z-110724T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
804 AM AST SAT JUL 23 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* A LARGE AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINE UP IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY TO
PRODUCE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...LIGHTNING AND FLOODING.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND RAPID RIVER RISES ON MAINSTEM
RIVERS AND GUTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

AAS/OMS/DS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Complete Update

A little rain for the Gulf area... good

More rain for Florida after the drought... better

A CAT 1 heading towards Mexico & the GOM... best

The neighbour rubbing it in that he is going on vacation, for the last 6 weeks....to Cancun on Tuesday... priceless :)

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Quoting aquak9:
hey baha- not quite sure what happened to 90L, but I think it knew there was no future, so it just said screw it, I'm outta here. Wait till 93L. That one will drive us crazy.

i'm not even feeling like 90L will bring any rain to the CONUS, Man...I'd love to be wrong.
LOL... I am washing some "hanging out" laundry - stuff that I like the sun to bake, like sheets - today, because I'm hopeful that tomorrow and Monday we will get some showers from 90L... and I am sure the Cubans would not complain.... if there's any rain left after PR and Hispaniola...
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... wow... now this is the prime example of the word POOF. :)


Sometimes it is hard to beat climatology.
Gotta run, ya'll. Enjoy the rest of your Saturday! And to my PR friends, ten cuidado, y vaya con Dios... y no cruza los rios hondos...
Quoting DestinJeff:
"center" of 90L is in the Eastern Caribbean now. will drift as open wave west/wnw until central/wstrn caribbean, then begin slow development into TC
pulling the A game out today
Aqua, thanks for the muffin. You are right that we will have many more invests and TCs to follow over the next 10 weeks (or more).

May as well relax and enjoy this beautiful day. Inside.
Thanks for the muffin from here, too! I'm off to run to Post so will be back later. 40% chance of rain for us, but it almost always says that and none here. I think NO is getting all the rain.
I see there's a nice healthy burst of convection growing right at the center of 90L--15.3N, 61.5W--which is basically atop the island nation of Dominica.
90L is an area of the eastern caribbean that if a storm has not developed before it reaches that area, it probably won't develop until around 75W.
1588. aquak9
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see there's a nice healthy burst of convection growing right at the center of 90L--15.3N, 61.5W--which is basically atop the island nation of Dominica.


Neapolitan mistakes confection for convection--

just eat yer muffin n'hush.

:)
This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
6.4
Date-Time
Saturday, July 23, 2011 at 04:34:24 UTC
Saturday, July 23, 2011 at 01:34:24 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
38.932°N, 141.907°E
Depth
38.6 km (24.0 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances
112 km (69 miles) SE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
125 km (77 miles) NE of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
165 km (102 miles) ENE of Yamagata, Honshu, Japan
414 km (257 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 14.8 km (9.2 miles); depth +/- 5.6 km (3.5 miles)





WEPA40 RJTD 230445
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
ISSUED BY NWPTAC(JMA)
ISSUED AT 0445Z 23 JUL 2011
HYPOCENTRAL PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME:0434Z 23 JUL 2011
PRELIMINARY EPICENTER:LAT38.9NORTH LON142.2EAST
NEAR EAST COAST OF EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
JAPAN - KURIL ISLANDS - KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
MAG:6.5(MJMA)

EVALUATION
THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI

ESTIMATION AT THE FORECAST POINTS - NO TSUNAMIS WITH
AMPLITUDE OF 0.5 METER OR OVER ARE EXPECTED AT ANY OF THEM.

HOWEVER AT SOME COASTS, PARTICULARLY THOSE NEAR THE EPICENTER, HIGHER
TSUNAMIS MAY ARRIVE THAN OUR ESTIMATION
AUTHORITIES SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE
EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS.
Quoting aquak9:


Neapolitan mistakes confection for convection--

just eat yer muffin n'hush.

:)

Much as I love blueberries, I see you have only margarine, and I can't do that to a good muffin. ;-)

If that burst takes hold and grows, watch as the mood gauge of the blog swings quickly back to a spot between "very interested" and "happy"...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see there's a nice healthy burst of convection growing right at the center of 90L--15.3N, 61.5W--which is basically atop the island nation of Dominica.


i see the coc at 12.5 N 64 W
1592. aquak9
amen to that, Nea, This blog runs like the tides. Been three years since we had a CONUS threat...I can't imagine what this place would be like.

And I ONLY use REAL BUTTER.
Good morning everyone. 90L has lost a pretty significant amount of organization since last evening. Vorticity dropped horribly, convection dissipated, and pressures as rising. This probably won't develop unless it avoids land interaction and wind shear, but even then, its a stretch. Plus, we really can't expect 90L to develop into Don, can we? It wouldn't even be terrifying one bit, like it sounds. However, waves are coming off better and better defined everyday, and eventually we will see some serious activity, give it another two weeks or so.



30 mph, 1013 mb.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning everyone. 90L has lost a pretty significant amount of organization since last evening. Vorticity dropped horribly, convection dissipated, and pressures as rising. This probably won't develop unless it avoids land interaction and wind shear, but even then, its a stretch. Plus, we really can't expect 90L to develop into Don, can we? It wouldn't even be terrifying one bit, like it sounds. However, waves are coming off better and better defined everyday, and eventually we will see some serious activity, give it another two weeks or so.



30 mph, 1013 mb.


if it were spinning the other way we would call it a high
90L looks more like a future Yucatan event, most models suggest.

1597. help4u
Looks like another year for Mexico storms and fish storms,alaways next year.
to me looks like a circulation very weak at best is trying to form around 17N and 63 W in that general area, i am still looking at the observations to verify
Quoting weatherh98:


i see the coc at 12.5 N 64 W

I was using ATCF's numbers...
Quoting weatherh98:


i see the coc at 12.5 N 64 W

Ahhh the COC!
There is no COC...
ASCAT.RGB,Vis,IR Satellite, ship reports, meteoand SJU radar, ship reports, CIMSS vorticity maps and surface analysis all show zonal east to west flow and motion of all wind, rain and clouds.
With pressures above 13MB and obvious shear on the sat pics.. I'm looking at possibly heavy rain here in the VI's.
Unless there is a radical change 90L is a non starter for the moment.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You could click your heels twice and believe the satellite analysis.
Not for an invest, no thanks.
Quoting P451:


That product always shows a perfect circulation. It's useless.

...for determining an invests surface winds.
Otherwise, it validates well for a TS, or better, as compared to any other post storm analysis and/or SFMR data.
Quoting help4u:
Looks like another year for Mexico storms and fish storms,alaways next year.


That is incorrect. You can tell be just looking how the pattern is shaping up right now with 90L.
Seriously, no one saved me a muffin? Hum.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Seriously, no one saved me a muffin? Hum.


Wait, we get muffins?! I want one!
How about an omelet?
1589 PcolaDan "This event has been reviewed by a seismologist. Magnitude 6.4"

Saw it when it was automaticly posted on top of the 'Recent Earthquakes of Magnitude 5 or Greater' list.
Interesting that a seismologist bumped it up from 6.1 to 6.4 -- 0.3 increase means more than a doubling of strength, approaching a tripling -- usually corrections push the level down.
Though after a second look at the page, I suppose I could have misread the 4 as a 1 when I glanced at it earlier.
Don't know what to do with myself. Had every intention on gettin out there to take care of my jungle-lawn only to wake up to the sound of thunder. Nice downpour soon followed, dashing said plans...probably for the duration of today.

Since I missed the muffins and now I've got time, off to make crepes.
While I often keep track for myself, I seldom*post Invest tracks here. But many people have been talking for the past12hours as if (possibly because the photos&animations were centered as if) 90L's center were already in the Caribbean...

...when the position data shows that it entered the Caribbean only a couple of hours ago.
ie Some of you may have been basing your opinions on looking at the wrong spot.

Copy&paste jee, 13.6n52.8w-13.8n54.6w, 14.1n56.4w-14.4n58.2w, 14.6n60.0w-15.3n61.5w, pos into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

* The exceptions arising when there's too much squabbling on here about a storm's current travel-direction and current travel-speed.
The TropicalWeatherOutlook doesn't help settle such disputes cuz what NHC says is "current" is an extrapolation based on data averaged over previous 12hours -- ie a view of the past behaviour extended into the future -- often with a bit of wishcasting (predictive data from this year's most favored ensemble of computer models that they wanna believe will be proven to be accurate) tossed into the mix.
But what WUbers see and are discussing tends to focus on the previous 6hours or 3hours (or less when viewing the last few frames of animation).
So the TWO's info can be as much as 20degrees (ie nearly the difference between eg NW and WNW) off of what WUbers are seeing on the last few frames, and as much as a third off on travel-speed (and MUCH more when center relocations occur).
I just noticed...2005 only had six systems in August and six systems in September. 12 of the seasons systems formed in October and November. Had they not got any storms then, 2005 would have only featured 16 named storms.

I find it interesting that August/September's total named storms equaled October/November's total of named storms.
I see that the computer models have shifted further south with 90L but still show a lot of land interaction. It is disappointing that the models are showing that Texas is being left out of the party again (don't interpret this as wishcasting). TX is so far in the red that Texans would gladly welcome a cat 2 storm at this point.
Good Morning all!!
Looks like a rainy one later maybe in the VI's and PR!
General consensus seems to be 90L is not doing anything spectacular. And right now the skjy is clear and beautiful blue here in the VI's since all the PW seems to have fallen out of my current airmass overnight.
New air mass on the way..looks wet but has 90 miles to go.
I especially like the 18 hour loop above..showing convection pops up over an area, burns itself out and/or get sheared away,then pops up somewhere else. Without a defined low level circulation to churn up warm ocean waters to release the heat and suck it into a central location sustained convection cannot occur in one spot.
Without that no TD/TS/H forms..
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I see that the computer models have shifted further south with 90L but still show a lot of land interaction. It is disappointing that the models are showing that Texas is being left out of the party again (don't interpret this as wishcasting). TX is so far in the red that Texans would gladly welcome a cat 2 storm at this point.

Hmmm last year someone in Monterrey mexico at the very beginning of the season said it was over 100 no rain in sight and it was 92L I think that missed him ..but then he got hit what, 4 times? So be careful what you post!!
And keep it a TS..cat 2's are usually pretty bad..
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was using ATCF's numbers...
WunderMap satellite shows a "L"ow there by Dominica too.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I see that the computer models have shifted further south with 90L but still show a lot of land interaction. It is disappointing that the models are showing that Texas is being left out of the party again (don't interpret this as wishcasting). TX is so far in the red that Texans would gladly welcome a cat 2 storm at this point.

Now that would depend on what part of TX you're talking about--here on the coast we don't want a cane, a tropical storm would be okay and yes, we need rain, even our saltwater marshy areas are dry-the shore birds are having a hard time surviving--but a hurricane, I'd rather not.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Wait, we get muffins?! I want one!

Better put another batch in the oven for us late risers Aqua :)
1618. ncstorm
much farther south

Good morning everybody! I have an off topic question. Where can I find information about the "aftermath" of tropical storms? What I mean by that is ACE numbers rainfall and so on? I thank everybody in advance!
Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
E. Major hurricane

Q: When will Tropical Storm Don Develop?

A. 7/24/11 to 7/31/11
B. 8/1/11 to 8/7/11
C. 8/8/11 to 8/15/11
D. 8/16/11 to 8/23/11
E. After 8/23/11
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
E. Major hurricane

Q: When will Tropical Storm Develop?

A. 7/24/11 to 7/31/11
B. 8/1/11 to 8/7/11
C. 8/8/11 to 8/15/11
D. 8/16/11 to 8/23/11
E. After 8/23/11

C,A
Quoting allisfineingreece:
Good morning everybody! I have an off topic question. Where can I find information about the "aftermath" of tropical storms? What I mean by that is ACE numbers rainfall and so on? I thank everybody in advance!


You can use the hurricane seasons Wikipedia article. Whether some people believe it or not, it is accurate. The ACE numbers will be at the bottom of the page. It the page doesn't show rainfall, try the individual storm.

What system do you need information on?
Sounds about right




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That is incorrect. You can tell be just looking how the pattern is shaping up right now with 90L.

I gotta agree on this.
We have a persistent strong Mid Atlantic ridge this year.
Warm water in the MDR again.
Less Dust this year.
The track is going to creep lower and I think we will be in an MDR development,smash the islands then recurve into the coast pattern again this year.
I am taking the boat to Trindad/Guyana this year rather than do the mangrove creeks in Puerto Rico.
1625. sky1989
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I see that the computer models have shifted further south with 90L but still show a lot of land interaction. It is disappointing that the models are showing that Texas is being left out of the party again (don't interpret this as wishcasting). TX is so far in the red that Texans would gladly welcome a cat 2 storm at this point.


People forget just how bad Category 2's are. Just because the scale goes all the way up to 5, doesn't mean 2 is not very devastating. Think of Dolly, Gustav, Ike, Alex, Frances, Isabel, and so on.
1620 TropicalAnalystwx13 "Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?"

F. HorrendousSpaceKablooie

"Q: When will Tropical Storm Develop?"

F. Hard to say.
Time flickers in&out of being space when the Hawking-Hartle spacetime limit is approached
Whats going on in the NW GOMEX?

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You can use the hurricane seasons Wikipedia article. Whether some people believe it or not, it is accurate. The ACE numbers will be at the bottom of the page. It the page doesn't show rainfall, try the individual storm.

What system do you need information on?


Thank you so much! I am interested in the ACE mostly (although I know sometimes NHC updates the numbers later) right after the storm is RIP. I will check Wiki though. Thanks againg!!
Quoting scooster67:

C,A


D,A

Minimal cat 1.
1630. sky1989
I see that 90L lost a lot of steam last night. This can be expected as it moves into higher wind shear. I do not expect it to do much at least until it gets to the longitude of Cuba. And then, it will possibly have to endure land interaction.
1631. sky1989
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
E. Major hurricane

Q: When will Tropical Storm Don Develop?

A. 7/24/11 to 7/31/11
B. 8/1/11 to 8/7/11
C. 8/8/11 to 8/15/11
D. 8/16/11 to 8/23/11
E. After 8/23/11


C,A
Quoting sailingallover:

Hmmm last year someone in Monterrey mexico at the very beginning of the season said it was over 100 no rain in sight and it was 92L I think that missed him ..but then he got hit what, 4 times? So be careful what you post!!
And keep it a TS..cat 2's are usually pretty bad..


Mm...not all that terrible. Bret was a CAT 3 when it hit Texas back in 1999, no bad damage or any fatalities. Still a slow-moving TS/CAT 1 would be perfect for Texas, as long as the damage isn't too heavy.
Well, since we are getting close to the end of the month, let me ask this question:

Q: How many named storms will see in August?

A. 0
B. 1
C. 2
D. 3
E. 4 or more
1634. sky1989
Quoting hurricaneben:


Mm...not all that terrible. Bret was a CAT 3 when it hit Texas back in 1999, no bad damage or any fatalities. Still a slow-moving TS/CAT 1 would be perfect for Texas, as long as the damage isn't too heavy.


Hitting a relatively unpopulated area like Bret did also makes it much less severe. Still, I agree that a tropical storm would really help.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
E. Major hurricane

Q: When will Tropical Storm Don Develop?

A. 7/24/11 to 7/31/11
B. 8/1/11 to 8/7/11
C. 8/8/11 to 8/15/11
D. 8/16/11 to 8/23/11
E. After 8/23/11


A, A

Based purely on SWAG method of forecasting :)
1637. sky1989
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, since we are getting close to the end of the month, let me ask this question:

Q: How many named storms will see in August?

A. 0
B. 1
C. 2
D. 3
E. 4 or more


E. 4-6

Early August may not be too active with the downward motion of the MJO, but mid to late August should really kick into gear.
1638. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Early Model Wind Forecasts


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, since we are getting close to the end of the month, let me ask this question:

Q: How many named storms will see in August?

A. 0
B. 1
C. 2
D. 3
E. 4 or more



E.

1640. aquak9
ya gotta get up early for the muffins. Lunch will be up soon. BLT's, toasted wheat. Thin slice of keylime pie for desert.

ya'll are on your own for dinner.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
E. Major hurricane

Q: When will Tropical Storm Don Develop?

A. 7/24/11 to 7/31/11
B. 8/1/11 to 8/7/11
C. 8/8/11 to 8/15/11
D. 8/16/11 to 8/23/11
E. After 8/23/11


B,B
1642. Dakster
Quoting blsealevel:
Whats going on in the NW GOMEX?

Link


Looks like rain to me... Nothing more than that...

90L isn't looking so good either, not that I am complaining.

1643. 19N81W
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...
1644. Matt74
Maybe not a cat 2 but I'd settle for a TS.
1645. sky1989



I think when the MJO returns to our octants (1 & 2) around mid-August the Atlantic will go crazy.
1646. Dakster
Quoting aquak9:
ya gotta get up early for the muffins. Lunch will be up soon. BLT's, toasted wheat. Thin slice of keylime pie for desert.

ya'll are on your own for dinner.


I'll take one too, water dog...

Do you make the muffins by putting the pan outside on the sidewalk?? I know it is hot enough here to fry eggs...
we can always watch ice melt the passage is or will open soon


Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


90L broke down faster than the Obama/Boenher meeting yesterday.


The plots above were calculated using the four plots below.






Link
Quoting sky1989:



I think when the MJO returns to our octants (1 & 2) around mid-August the Atlantic will go crazy.


Correct. We should see some serious activity mid-late August and into September. Once we get started, I bet we won't go more than 3-4 days without a named storm.

Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


I guess your implying that Bret and Cindy didn't need to be named. Also, 90L hasn't ever really been impressive.
Who will be our first major hurricane?

What will its peak be? Catagory,Winds,Pressure.
1652. Dakster
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


90L broke down faster than the Obama/Boenher meeting yesterday.


There is a really nasty storm brewing in DC, it will be so huge and powerful that it will take the world economy down...
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who will be our first major hurricane?

What will its peak be? Catagory,Winds,Pressure.


Asking for category, winds, and pressure are a little specific, but I'm going to go with Don or Emily being our first major hurricane.
Quoting blsealevel:
Whats going on in the NW GOMEX?

Link

Thunderstorms.

1655. sky1989
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


Don't forget 2004 when we had not had anything until July 31. August, September, and October are the true months of hurricane season. June and July are merely warm ups unless it's 2005 and every month is chaos, even December.
Quoting Dakster:


Looks like rain to me... Nothing more than that...

90L isn't looking so good either, not that I am complaining.



lol thought i saw a mid level spin starting to happen NW gomex, but yea its raining
There should, unfortunately, be a whole lot of Caribbean activity over the next three months.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What category will Invest 90L peak in?

A. Invest
B. Tropical Depression
C. Tropical Storm
D. Hurricane
E. Major hurricane

Q: When will Tropical Storm Don Develop?

A. 7/24/11 to 7/31/11
B. 8/1/11 to 8/7/11
C. 8/8/11 to 8/15/11
D. 8/16/11 to 8/23/11
E. After 8/23/11


D A
Man if the HWRF doesn't develop this thing into a monster cane - it ain't gone develop at all. heh
1662. sky1989
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There should, unfortunately, be a whole lot of Caribbean activity over the next three months.



That looks...... Very ominous. I hope that the last two years have not made people too complacent.
Quoting allisfineingreece:
Good morning everybody! I have an off topic question. Where can I find information about the "aftermath" of tropical storms? What I mean by that is ACE numbers rainfall and so on? I thank everybody in advance!


NOAA has a webpage
1664. Dakster
Quoting DestinJeff:
That 90L is still there, hasn't died, and the energy and moisture associated with it will continue on through the Caribbean until it begins slow development south of Jamaica.

Those clouds north around PR and such are not 90L, at least not where the "kind of" center is.


Isn't this the "john-hope" rule... If it hasn't developed by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean it won't until it reaches the western.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Asking for category, winds, and pressure are a little specific, but I'm going to go with Don or Emily being our first major hurricane.


Well,what do YOU think? Theres no right or wrong answer.
Quoting Dakster:


There is a really nasty storm brewing in DC, it will be so huge and powerful that it will take the world economy down...


Expect a spending cut and limit increase thru 2012 ONLY. It is crystal clear to me what is going on in Washington, it's all party posturing. No deal will be made as long as there is a Republican House and Democratic Senate. The deal will be made however when Americans vote in 2012 and the two paths are very clear. It's going to be up to us to strike the deal, IMO.


What are your thoughts on 90L to remain on topic :-)

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Well,what do YOU think? Theres no right or wrong answer.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Asking for category, winds, and pressure are a little specific, but I'm going to go with Don or Emily being our first major hurricane.
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


It is only the third week in July. It is a little too early to be downcasting the entire season, based upon one wave losing some convection.

Like every season, you don't know until it is over.

Quoting NOLALawyer:


It is only the third week in August. It is a little too early to be downcasting the entire season, based upon one wave losing some convection.

Like every season, you don't know until it is over.



Danggggg it....I thought we were in July. (:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Who will be our first major hurricane?

What will its peak be? Catagory,Winds,Pressure.


Hurricane Emily it'll be a cat 11 storm (that's the homer simpson scale) with 666 mph sustained winds and 666mb pressure. it's gonna be the devil's spawn man!!!!!!!!!!!!
1671. 7544
does anyone know why the nhc surface map has a box with a possiblile cyclone box over fla in 72 hours is this for 90l tia
Quoting 7544:
does anyone know why the nhc surface map has a box with a possiblile cyclone box over fla in 72 hours is this for 90l tia

can you post the link or picture?
Quoting 7544:
does anyone know why the nhc surface map has a box with a possiblile cyclone box over fla in 72 hours is this for 90l tia


Yeah, its for 90L. They should take it off sometime today as they don't ever usually add it without a low pressure area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Danggggg it....I thought we were in July. (:


LOL. Fixed that.
1676. sky1989
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Hurricane Emily it'll be a cat 11 storm (that's the homer simpson scale) with 666 mph sustained winds and 666mb pressure. it's gonna be the devil's spawn man!!!!!!!!!!!!


I can't imagine just how large such a system would be... It would be the end of the world!
NOLALawyer "It is only the third week in August. It is a little too early to be downcasting the entire season, based upon one wave losing some convection.
Like every season, you don't know until it is over.
"
1669 TropicalAnalystwx13 "Danggggg it....I thought we were in July. (: "

Warned ya about time gettin' weirded when a HorrendousSpaceKablooie is near.
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


You fail to forget that this is July, where activity like this is expected.
1679. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, its for 90L. They should take it off sometime today as they don't ever usually add it without a low pressure area.


oh thanks
NHC has not given up all hope......



000
NOUS42 KNHC 231515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 23 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 19.0N 77.0W AT 25/1800Z.

3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Thought i saw something ummm wind shear still high in that area though nice slow rain right now back yard rain gauge showed .25 inchs past 24 hr forcasted to have some more alittel heaver at times going to be a nice lazy day in blsealevels world good to be me.

1682. lucreto
I never write off a season until September 4th that is when 48.2% of the season is finished (not by date because clearly September 5th is more than halfway between June 1 and November 30 but by number of storms), at this point only 16.7% of the season is finished.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC has not given up all hope......



000
NOUS42 KNHC 231515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 23 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-053

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 19.0N 77.0W AT 25/1800Z.
3. REMARK: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 26/00Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


So they think it'll be near Jamaica by then...
90L has imo ~10% chance of development. It aint happening with 90L.
there are hints of a weak suface low in the ne GOM trying to get started...this is worth keeping and eye on since the ssts nearing 90 there...just some food for thought...90L LOOKS LIKE A SICK PUPPY..
1687. scott39
A constant watch over a pot of water-- will never boil.
All boats facing north.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Surface analysis lines up with 850 vort map



...which has shown a bit of an increase over the past image



IMO, 90L isn't the wave to watch. It's the one behind it...You can see it on the vorticity image. It will follow in almost the exact same footsteps as 90L, which is a dangerous pattern for next month and September. Here's the visible satellite image for what I will call pre-91L:

1691. 7544
9ol starting to gain new convection the last 3 hours so its still trying to get it together
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


You clearly have short-term memory problems, as it was only last year ULL's and dry air where killing all our systems. Guess what happened in late August? After that wave of storms ended, we ended the season with 19 named storms. This is going to be an active season, heck we're already above average as it is. We'll be getting storms soon ones real intense and IMO given the pattern they'll probably take a similar path as 90L did.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


IMO, 90L isn't the wave to watch. It's the one behind it...You can see it on the vorticity image. It will follow in almost the exact same footsteps as 90L, which is a dangerous pattern for next month and September. Here's the visible satellite image for what I will call pre-91L:



Yes indeed, nice big inverted V with that one above 10 N too.
1687 scott39 "A constant watch over a pot of water-- will never boil."

So will a broken clock boil?
guys we got a 1013 low on the map

12Z
1697. scott39
90L is moving WNW or 188 degrees at 18.7mph for the last 6 hours.
Quoting caneswatch:


You fail to forget that this is July, where activity like this is expected.


Because there's usually shear in July. 90L wasn't sheared (afaik). Just petered out for no good reason other than it couldn't get any real convection or spin going.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You clearly have short-term memory problems, as it was only last year ULL's and dry air where killing all our systems. Guess what happened in late August? After that wave of storms ended, we ended the season with 19 named storms. This is going to be an active season, heck we're already above average as it is. We'll be getting storms soon ones real intense and IMO given the pattern they'll probably take a similar path as 90L did.

A similar path as 90L did? What path is that. I'm missing something. Did 90L turn into a monster hurricane or something? It's nothing more than a wave. The forward progress of that cannot dictate the motion of TD's, TS's, and hurricanes.

Steering currents and upper-level flows at the moment indicate not a big change from last year as it is.
1700. scott39
Quoting aspectre:
1687 scott39 "A constant watch over a pot of water-- will never boil."

So will a broken clock boil?
LOL
So far this season, we have had Tropical Storm Arlene, Tropical Storm Bret, and Tropical Storm Cindy. Typically, we do not see our first named storm on July 9th, our second named storm on August 1, and our third named storm on August 13. We typically see our first hurricane on August 10, and our first major hurricane on September 4.

* We will/are ahead with named storms
* May get ahead briefly with first hurricane
* Will definitely be ahead with major hurricane before September.
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


I would respectfully disagree.......While this wave did not fully develop, the general track and motion of this system is a precusor to the hightened acivity well will see in the actual peak period from around August 15 through the end of September....I seriously doubt that the propsective numbers will be dropped by Gray and Company in their August update and I think they might go up by 1-2 storms. Check back with us at the end of September before calling a below average season in July.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

A similar path as 90L did? What path is that. I'm missing something. Did 90L turn into a monster hurricane or something? It's nothing more than a wave. The forward progress of that cannot dictate the motion of TD's, TS's, and hurricanes.

Steering currents and upper-level flows at the moment indicate not a big change from last year as it is.


Sorry to umm burst your bubble, but that sentence is incorrect.
i must say the early model runs of 90l were very wrong as far as track and strength. goes to show that you cant put your hat on them too much at all.
convection is on the increase does anyone have that experimental pouch site link?
Quoting cat5hurricane:

A similar path as 90L did? What path is that. I'm missing something. Did 90L turn into a monster hurricane or something? It's nothing more than a wave. The forward progress of that cannot dictate the motion of TD's, TS's, and hurricanes.

Steering currents and upper-level flows at the moment indicate not a big change from last year as it is.


Back in August 2007, a wave that was dubbed 99L (right before Hurricane Dean) tracked across the Caribbean with no development. Several times during its voyage, it looked like it was going to develop but it failed to gain a closed low-level circulation. However, because of the steering currents 99L went into the Yucatan and dissipated - a similar path to what Dean would take a few weeks later, only Dean was much stronger.
1707. scott39
Is the NE Caribbean part of the invest developing TC graveyard?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sorry to umm burst your bubble, but that sentence is incorrect.

No problem. What is correct? From the blocking highs and jet stream position and such, I don't see much of a difference.
And also, the steering currents are nothing similar to what they where last year. Arlene went into Mexico due to a persistent ridge, that ridge is going to move northward to where years like 2008 had it positioned. And, Bret and Cindy where both trough splits off the East Coast, which I can say 90% do go out sea.
1710. Patrap
LoL
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I would respectfully disagree.......While this wave did not fully develop, the general track and motion of this system is a precusor to the hightened acivity well will see in the actual peak period from around August 15 through the end of September....I seriously doubt that the propsective numbers will be dropped by Gray and Company in their August update and I think they might go up by 1-2 storms. Check back with us at the end of September before calling a below average season in July.
ball is just starting to roll steam will be rising in a couple weeks
1712. 19N81W
wow Keeper you take this blog way too seriously I think calling someone an idiot over a weather opinion is a bit harsh dont you? Not to mention making a threatening remark? My views may not fall in line with yours but know when to bite your tongue and grow up.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

A similar path as 90L did? What path is that. I'm missing something. Did 90L turn into a monster hurricane or something? It's nothing more than a wave. The forward progress of that cannot dictate the motion of TD's, TS's, and hurricanes.

Steering currents and upper-level flows at the moment indicate not a big change from last year as it is.
the pattern is in place for less storms to recurve and more Caribbean and us landfalls. and yes 90l basicly paved the way for future storms
Quoting cat5hurricane:

No problem. What is correct? From the blocking highs and jet stream position and such, I don't see much of a difference.


You can kind of see how the pattern is now by looking at Invest 90L. A track into the Caribbean, threatening the GA, and then eventually heading towards the USA. Very dangerous pattern..
1715. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Early Model Wind Forecasts
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So far this season, we have had Tropical Storm Arlene, Tropical Storm Bret, and Tropical Storm Cindy. Typically, we do not see our first named storm on July 9th, our second named storm on August 1, and our third named storm on August 13. We typically see our first hurricane on August 10, and our first major hurricane on September 4.

* We will/are ahead with named storms
* May get ahead briefly with first hurricane
* Will definitely be ahead with major hurricane before September.


STATS SO FAR AS OF JULY 23

90L INV
91L INV
92L INV
93L INV
94L INV
95L TS A
96L INV
97L INV
98L TS B
99L TS C

90L INV

TOTALS

8 INVESTS
3 TS
0 H
0 MH
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So far this season, we have had Tropical Storm Arlene, Tropical Storm Bret, and Tropical Storm Cindy. Typically, we do not see our first named storm on July 9th, our second named storm on August 1, and our third named storm on August 13. We typically see our first hurricane on August 10, and our first major hurricane on September 4.

* We will/are ahead with named storms
* May get ahead briefly with first hurricane
* Will definitely be ahead with major hurricane before September.


I dont know how you can say that it is a definite that we will get our first major before September. Yes it is likely, but anything can and will happen. We've had 3 storms form, 2 from cut of lows and one spin up in the BOC. Nothing very well formed or impressive looking.
Quoting islander101010:
convection is on the increase does anyone have that experimental pouch site link?


Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I dont know how you can say that it is a definite that we will get our first major before September. Yes it is likely, but anything can and will happen. We've had 3 storms form, 2 from cut of lows and one spin up in the BOC. Nothing very well formed or impressive looking.

No, nothing impressive looking at all.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I dont know how you can say that it is a definite that we will get our first major before September. Yes it is likely, but anything can and will happen. We've had 3 storms form, 2 from cut of lows and one spin up in the BOC. Nothing very well formed or impressive looking.


Yeah, maybe I should change the wording to "very likely". The last time we didn't have a major hurricane before September was 2006, but that was a very inactive month.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I dont know how you can say that it is a definite that we will get our first major before September. Yes it is likely, but anything can and will happen. We've had 3 storms form, 2 from cut of lows and one spin up in the BOC. Nothing very well formed or impressive looking.
where did we get our majors from last year...... lets see... the cape verde season!
Quoting cat5hurricane:

No, nothing impressive looking at all.


With the exception of Alex, 2010 had TD2 and Bonnie, unimpressive cyclones by this point of time. And I wouldn't have been shocked if Arlene had gone more north it would have obtained C1 hurricane status.
Quoting scott39:
Is the NE Caribbean part of the invest developing TC graveyard?


Yes....The best explanation of this issue I saw on the blog was from Kman last season but he presented a very good analysis of the issue of the westerlies in that region an how development is usually more favorable in the western Caribbean if the wave makes it through. Generally, and this is my own observation only, if you have actually formation of a depression or storm BEFORE, it enters the eastern caribbean, the storm then survives that part of the crossing (before either hitting the greater antilles, staying south of them and crossing Cuba or the Yucatan into the gulf, or, going towards central America). "Waves" have a problem fully developing for the first time in the easter caribbean it seems but not as a fully developed storm.
Quoting 19N81W:
wow Keeper you take this blog way too seriously I think calling someone an idiot over a weather opinion is a bit harsh dont you? Not to mention making a threatening remark? My views may not fall in line with yours but know when to bite your tongue and grow up.
sorry friend its the bashing of NHC and acusation of stacking that bit me the wrong way you are right you have a freedom of opinion sorry just try not to bash the good men and women of the NHC thats all
great site thank you john hope rule has been rock hard only broken a few times
Arlene and Bret came very close to hurricane status...Bret even had an eye feature at peak intensity. I wouldn't necessarily call those two systems unimpressive. They weren't overly impressive, but they weren't unimpressive, especially how fast Arlene ramped up in the small BOC.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, maybe I should change the wording to "very likely". The last time we didn't have a major hurricane before September was 2006, but that was a very inactive month.


True, and even if we get a lot of storms if everything forms near land, or too close to colder waters, then nothing may have time to grow into one. Its all about timing really.
1714.

We have no idea what 90L will do yet. LOL. It's nothing more than an invest. There's not even NHC forecast plots for it yet. It can very well dissipate for all we know.

Just because model plots estimate where it's going to go 5 days out (if it even survives) doesn't do much justice for what it will really do.

How can anyone say what the U.S is at a greater risk of landfall of a projection of an invest 5 to 6 days out. Am I missing something here??
Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the exception of Alex, 2010 had TD2 and Bonnie, unimpressive cyclones by this point of time. And I wouldn't have been shocked if Arlene had gone more north it would have obtained C1 hurricane status.
i agree completely.... i would say about that same activity at this point that last year.
1730. scott39
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yes....The best explanation of this issue I saw on the blog was from Kman last season but he presented a very good analysis of the issue of the westerlies in that region an how development is usually more favorable in the western Caribbean if the wave makes it through. Generally, and this is my own observation only, if you have actually formation of a depression or storm BEFORE, it enters the eastern caribbean, the storm then survives that part of the crossing (before either hitting the greater antilles, staying south of them and crossing Cuba of the Yucatan into the gulf, or, going towards central America). "Waves" have a problem fully developing for the first time in the easter caribbean it seems but not as a fully developed storm.
Henceforth--20%
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


True, and even if we get a lot of storms if everything forms near land, or too close to colder waters, then nothing may have time to grow into one. Its all about timing really.


Absolutely correct. It really is.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sorry friend its the bashing of NHC and acusation of stacking that bit me the wrong way you are right you have a freedom of opinion sorry just try not to bash the good men and women of the NHC thats all

I bash them all the time, and that doesn't take anything away from them being good men or women. It's call a weather blog, and disagreements are what drives the blog. Get to know that.
I agree with what most people are saying. The Caribbean/US Gulf Coast are in for a very fast ride starting in as early as a couple of weeks from now--the pattern ridge favors the high possibility of a Ivan/Dennis/Gustav-like storm...hopefully it doesn't get as destructive as the three but we're far from safe in the Gulf Coast and Caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Arlene and Bret came very close to hurricane status...Bret even had an eye feature at peak intensity. I wouldn't necessarily call those two systems unimpressive.



yeah, but it was a tiny spin up storm over the gulf stream, nothing like Alex from last year, or Arthur and Bertha from 2008, both large systems that came together early in the season. Nothing like that has happened this year as of yet, all quick tiny spin ups.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the exception of Alex, 2010 had TD2 and Bonnie, unimpressive cyclones by this point of time. And I wouldn't have been shocked if Arlene had gone more north it would have obtained C1 hurricane status.

I was talking about 2011 thus far being off to a slow start, not 2010.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
1714.

We have no idea what 90L will do yet. LOL. It's nothing more than an invest. There's not even NHC forecast plots for it yet. It can very well dissipate for all we know.

Just because model plots estimate where it's going to go 5 days out (if it even survives) doesn't do much justice for what it will really do.

How can anyone say what the U.S is at a greater risk of landfall of a projection of an invest 5 to 6 days out. Am I missing something here??
because of the pattern that is setting up for august with less recurvatures and more ridging. im not saying everything will be brought to the us but it will a more dangerous season than last year as far as landfalls
1737. Patrap
The Chart




Development is still a possibility.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I was talking about 2011 thus far being off to a slow start, not 2010.

dude its not a slow start with 3 named storms and were not even in august
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I was talking about 2011 thus far being off to a slow start, not 2010.


2010 was slower, and is an accurate comparison as to how quickly things can change. If you can remember, people where saying the exact same thing last year as they are today.
Quoting homewoodweather589:
because of the pattern that is setting up for august with less recurvatures and more ridging. im not saying everything will be brought to the us but it will a more dangerous season than last year as far as landfalls

Based of what? Probabilities. Because the U.S. was almost entirely spared last year, and because Florida has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since 2005, means this year is more dangerous?

We don't know the pattern yet for August and September and October. It is too far out in time. From what I have seen right now, there is really not a whole lot that would indicate not much of a deviation from last years steering patterns.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I was talking about 2011 thus far being off to a slow start, not 2010.


But 2011 hasn't been off to a slow start, we are already two storms ahead of average.
1743. P451
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
So far this season, we have had Tropical Storm Arlene, Tropical Storm Bret, and Tropical Storm Cindy. Typically, we do not see our first named storm on July 9th, our second named storm on August 1, and our third named storm on August 13. We typically see our first hurricane on August 10, and our first major hurricane on September 4.

* We will/are ahead with named storms
* May get ahead briefly with first hurricane
* Will definitely be ahead with major hurricane before September.


Just a little peek in graph form....

Quoting scott39:
Henceforth--20%


The models which factor those issues (including westerlies/sheer and some dry air in the region) into the equation are looking at those issues; however, we all thought the system looked much better yesterday (from a visual perspective) and it did in fact go up to 30%........It just fell apart a bit in the "graveyard" region. Not say that something could not happen later on down the road with the wave if it holds together after the Antilles but I have not looked at the models this morning yet.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Based of what? Probabilities. Because the U.S. was almost entirely spared last year, and because Florida has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since 2005, means this year is more dangerous?

We don't know the pattern yet for August and September and October. It is too far out in time. From what I have seen right now, there is really not a whole lot that would indicate not much of a deviation from last years steering patterns.


Then you haven't seen much of anything.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah, but it was a tiny spin up storm over the gulf stream, nothing like Alex from last year, or Arthur and Bertha from 2008, both large systems that came together early in the season. Nothing like that has happened this year as of yet, all quick tiny spin ups.


Arthur was by no means impressive lol. It was such a quick spin up that it moved inland a few hours after formation.
Even though 90l doesn't look impressive now, we still need to watch this system down the road for possible development and any threat to the USA mainland.
Quoting extreme236:


Arthur was by no means impressive lol. It was such a quick spin up that it moved inland a few hours after formation.


It was a large system though, we havent seen any of those yet this season.
convection keeps building every frame near the pouch fascinating system
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Based of what? Probabilities. Because the U.S. was almost entirely spared last year, and because Florida has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since 2005, means this year is more dangerous?

We don't know the pattern yet for August and September and October. It is too far out in time. From what I have seen right now, there is really not a whole lot that would indicate not much of a deviation from last years steering patterns.
i dont explain it well but you should watch one of Levi32 tibits. you might learn a thing or too if your not too hardheaded.
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that died fast....Its going to be one of those seasons...if a wave that impressive that spin up near August I highly doubt we are going to see this above average season they were forcasting...but I guess if they can knock off numbers with the likes of bret and cindy they will make their forcast...


Quoting cat5hurricane:

I bash them all the time, and that doesn't take anything away from them being good men or women. It's call a weather blog, and disagreements are what drives the blog. Get to know that.


It's one thing to disagree with the NHC on certain things. It's another to say they are padding numbers for some unknown reason. It is just clearly not the case, all three named storms this year were clearly tropical cyclones. Two of them were investigated by Recon.

These are the facts, no way around it.
This is how I determine the track for a system...Take the 1016 mb. and follow that, that is the line that systems typically follow. Usually, they will follow just south or north of it. In the situation with 90L, take the just south solution.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It was a large system though, we havent seen any of those yet this season.

*cough* Arlene *cough*
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It was a large system though, we havent seen any of those yet this season.
our 2011 A storm was unusually large
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Even though 90l doesn't look impressive now, we still need to watch this system down the road for possible development and any threat to the USA mainland.


Threat is a relative term....Looking at the loops right now convection is building again so I would expect some rainy and gusty conditions for you folks in PR later today..........How is the weather there right now?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2010 was slower, and is an accurate comparison as to how quickly things can change. If you can remember, people where saying the exact same thing last year as they are today.

No, I don't remember last year in July. I didn't join until August. But if that's how it is, that's fine. I'll make note of that.
Quoting homewoodweather589:
i dont explain it well but you should watch one of Levi32 tibits. you might learn a thing or too if your not too hardheaded.

LOL. I'll be sure to head on in Levi's blog later and check it out.
1759. spathy
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2010 was slower, and is an accurate comparison as to how quickly things can change. If you can remember, people where saying the exact same thing last year as they are today.


That was funny last year.
The train kept a rollin after it got started.
If only had a $1 for every time I read the word bust.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It was a large system though, we havent seen any of those yet this season.


Arlene was bigger than Arthur. It had bands that expanded well out past the central convection. Link
1761. Patrap
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

*cough* Arlene *cough*


I must be thinking of another storm other than Arthur then...
Quoting cat5hurricane:

No, I don't remember last year in July. I didn't join until August. But if that's how it is, that's fine. I'll make note of that.


No problem. I didn't notice your joining date so of course you probably wouldn't remember lol.
Quoting spathy:


That was funny last year.
The train kept a rollin after it got started.
If only had a $1 for every time I resd the word bust.


You'd have at least $100.
Quoting extreme236:


Arlene was bigger than Arthur. It had bands that expanded well out past the central convection. Link


Yeah I see that now, was probably thinking of another storm, oh well, and yes I know Arlene was big.
Quoting IceCoast:




It's one thing to disagree with the NHC on certain things. It's another to say they are padding numbers for some unknown reason. It is just clearly not the case, all three named storms this year were clearly tropical cyclones. Two of them were investigated by Recon.

These are the facts, no way around it.

Padding numbers? Oh boy! We're heading into conspiracy theories now. Do you really want to head down that road. Is that what you would like the blog topic to be for the next few hours?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You'd have at least $100.


Actually she would have 0, I dont think she has "resd" the word bust at all this season.
90L will look impressive when recon goes into the system tomorrow, or at least, it should. When 90L went into 28-29C water temperatures from 27-28C, we got that impressive look last night. Tomorrow, it will go from 28-29C to 30-31C.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah I see that now, was probably thinking of another storm, oh well, and yes I know Arlene was big.
ir shows a good spin in the e.carib. void of deep convection for now
1770. spathy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You'd have at least $100.


Darn it.
I hate fast quotes :O)
I guess the NHC must see something we do not.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W MOVE INTO EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AS POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE N OF 16N...
REACHING 73W LATE SUN...ALONG 78W LATE MON...AND THROUGH NW
CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE PUSHING INTO S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WED.
ATLC HIGH PRES BUILD OVER TROPICAL N ATLC BEHIND WAVE. SECOND
WAVE MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC MON...INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TUE...AND INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Threat is a relative term....Looking at the loops right now convection is building again so I would expect some rainy and gusty conditions for you folks in PR later today..........How is the weather there right now?



I don't live in Puerto Rico anymore. Now I'm living in Tampa, Florida.
i dont get how one could say it will be the same steering as last year and not even remeber the pivotal first 2 months of the season
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give 90L at 2PM on the TWO?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher than 30%
1775. spathy
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Actually she would have 0, I dont think she has "resd" the word bust at all this season.


Hi Va Beach.
Hows it going?
I was talking about last year and I am a he,but that has been debated. Snicker.
And WTHeck I fixed that typo in like 15 seconds.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I don't live in Puerto Rico anymore. Now I'm living in Tampa, Florida.


Sorry.....But any friends and family down there can expect gusty and rainy conditions it seems over the next 12-24 hours from the looks of it.......... :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I guess the NHC must see something we do not.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W MOVE INTO EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AS POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE N OF 16N...
REACHING 73W LATE SUN...ALONG 78W LATE MON...AND THROUGH NW
CARIBBEAN TUE BEFORE PUSHING INTO S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WED.
ATLC HIGH PRES BUILD OVER TROPICAL N ATLC BEHIND WAVE. SECOND
WAVE MOVE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC MON...INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN
TUE...AND INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED.


I don't understand what you are trying to point out...that seems right.
1778. txjac
Pat, how does Texas get one of those wispy blob like things to hang out over it kind of like the one that has been over LA for a week. I must admit that you have been gracious enough to send small amounts of it our way though.

What the heck is that called that has been hanging in your area for so long?

And yes, serious question ... I really dont know
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center get at 2PM on the TWO?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher than 30%


I think the National hurricane Center will have a 0% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. :p
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Padding numbers? Oh boy! We're heading into conspiracy theories now. Do you really want to head down that road. Is that what you would like the blog topic to be for the next few hours?


I'm not saying you accused them of that, but the other user did. I was simply stating that is non-sense, there is no factual data supporting that. Disagree with the NHC all you want, it's what makes this blog fun, but remember the people working down in Miami are some of the best Meteorologists in the world.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center get at 2PM on the TWO?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher than 30%
agree with 20
1782. FLdewey
The chart... on a weekend? Before noon?

You guys are a-n-i-m-a-l-s!
Quoting spathy:


Hi Va Beach.
Hows it going?
I was talking about last year and I am a he,but that has been debated. Snicker.
And WTHeck I fixed that typo in like 15 seconds.


Oh yeah? Well...I commented in like 5 seconds, so ha!
Quoting spathy:


Hi Va Beach.
Hows it going?
I was talking about last year and I am a he,but that has been debated. Snicker.
And WTHeck I fixed that typo in like 15 seconds.


Oh... Now im embarrassed... hahahaha my bad. I am wonderful on this hot day, how are you?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sorry.....But any friends and family down there can expect gusty and rainy conditions it seems over the next 12-24 hours from the looks of it.......... :)



yes, that's for sure !!!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I think the National hurricane Center will have a 0% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. :p


oops...lol
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Based of what? Probabilities. Because the U.S. was almost entirely spared last year, and because Florida has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since 2005, means this year is more dangerous?

We don't know the pattern yet for August and September and October. It is too far out in time. From what I have seen right now, there is really not a whole lot that would indicate not much of a deviation from last years steering patterns.


Yeah exactly, every year people get hyped over another 2004 season, its like watching horror movies, you get entertained over disgusting things. Accept horror movies are fake and hurricane destruction is real.


I'm not saying I wouldn't want to get to experience a strong hurricane if I got the chance, but you don't see me hyping that every invest is going to become a powerful hurricane and strike Florida or New Orleans. That's because its a horrible thing and I don't wish it on anyone.

I can't say that for everyone here sadly. Every dang tropical wave some people go nuts, not because they are interested in tracking the system, but they are constantly hoping the storm intensifies and threatens land.

Sad stuff.
My teenager is starting to ask for "ride" somewhere.......Back Later.
1789. Patrap
Quoting txjac:
Pat, how does Texas get one of those wispy blob like things to hang out over it kind of like the one that has been over LA for a week. I must admit that you have been gracious enough to send small amounts of it our way though.

What the heck is that called that has been hanging in your area for so long?

And yes, serious question ... I really dont know




We usually sacrifice a Guvna or other ...

"a surface trof has hung out there most the week seems"
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
My teenager is starting to ask for "ride" somewhere.......Back Later.


Well how else would we convince you guys for cars?! hahaha
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Well how else would we convince you guys for cars?! hahaha


I know..........See you folks later this evening.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



I don't live in Puerto Rico anymore. Now I'm living in Tampa, Florida.


Hey good choice to move here, we don't get hurricanes in the Tampa Bay area, as you will soon learn :)

We get an awful lot of hurricane hype in Tampa Bay for a tropical area that experiences snow more frequently than hurricane landfalls lol
This was the scene a year ago:

1795. spathy
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Oh... Now im embarrassed... hahahaha my bad. I am wonderful on this hot day, how are you?


I am good.
Home from work today with a lame foot.

Last time I talked to you there was a storm pushing its way towards you.
What was that storm?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey good choice to move here, we don't get hurricanes in the Tampa Bay area, as you will soon learn :)

We get an awful lot of hurricane hype in Tampa Bay for a tropical area that experiences snow more frequently than hurricane landfalls lol



well, thanks. I'm ok with that.
1797. Patrap
Now,now...

Remember,,itsa "family site".





Getting slammed over here:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give 90L at 2PM on the TWO?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher than 30%


D.
1800. Patrap
Accept horror movies are fake and hurricane destruction is real.

The word usage is incorrect as well.

Its, "Except"..
30-35W, 13N - Watch it...



Wet week.

Percent of normal rainfall better than 200% for most of SE LA:


1.5 inches so far today. That knee-high grass is happy (and safe for today).
1803. spathy
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey good choice to move here, we don't get hurricanes in the Tampa Bay area, as you will soon learn :)

We get an awful lot of hurricane hype in Tampa Bay for a tropical area that experiences snow more frequently than hurricane landfalls lol


Darn you and your cone of protection.
Remember Charley?
That was your storm!
But Noooo
You sent it my way.
Well then...Some people are upset today...
Quoting spathy:


Darn you and your cone of protection.
Remember Charley?
That was your storm!
But Noooo
You sent it my way.


Everyone gets hurricanes eventually. Just hope that area is prepared for it when it comes. It wasn't when I lived up there.
1806. xcool






To the ones that get mad at folks bashing the Nhc?My only question is this, are they not a goverment agency?Are they not paid by the taxpayers of America?Now I agree they are trained experts, but are they God.Are they above being critisized.I believe I have a say if I as a taxpayer are footing the bill.But really gets me about the nursemaids on here for the NHc is the fact these are the same people that bash the presidents, the congress,the military,the postal service etc.Guess what; just like the NHC they are employed by the gov.Who is the gov? We are. We pay all thier salaries.I personally also find the Nhc is a very accurate and informative agency.But they are open game just like any other,To be so naive that its not possible they would not pad numbers is a joke.Do you believe our other gov agencies are always completly honest and upstanding lol The Cia lol,gov agency,FBI gov agency.I think the reason people are not as open minded on here because they are computer weather nerds and bashing the NHC would be well a sacrilidge.Funny how they do not seem to be near as offended on here when some one bashes God.Sign of the times I guess.Just MHO, which means nothing but maybe its something to think about.God bles and good day.
well look at that 850 vort has increased in 90L
Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give 90L at 2PM on the TWO?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher than 30%
B
Quoting txjac:
Pat, how does Texas get one of those wispy blob like things to hang out over it kind of like the one that has been over LA for a week. I must admit that you have been gracious enough to send small amounts of it our way though.

What the heck is that called that has been hanging in your area for so long?

And yes, serious question ... I really dont know
Mid-level trof parked here combined with high precipitable water, onshore flow, and plenty of surface daytime heating (not entirely required).
1811. txjac
at post 1807 ...nicely said
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
To the ones that get mad at folks bashing the Nhc?My only question is this, are they not a goverment agency?Are they not paid by the taxpayers of America?Now I agree they are trained experts, but are they God.Are they above being critisized.I believe I have a say if I as a taxpayer are footing the bill.But really gets me about the nursemaids on here for the NHc is the fact these are the same people that bash the presidents, the congress,the military,the postal service etc.Guess what; just like the NHC they are employed by the gov.Who is the gov? We are. We pay all thier salaries.I personally also find the Nhc is a very accurate and informative agency.But they are open game just like any other,To be so naive that its not possible they would not pad numbers is a joke.Do you believe our other gov agencies are always completly honest and upstanding lol The Cia lol,gov agency,FBI gov agency.I think the reason people are not as open minded on here because they are computer weather nerds and bashing the NHC would be well a sacrilidge.Funny how they do not seem to be near as offended on here when some one bashes God.Sign of the times I guess.Just MHO, which means nothing but maybe its something to think about.God bles and good day.

Well said. Good day to you too.
Quoting spathy:


I am good.
Home from work today with a lame foot.

Last time I talked to you there was a storm pushing its way towards you.
What was that storm?


Was it a supercell? The one that went through raleigh came right over my house, luckily the hook missed me but some people nearby weren't so lucky. How did that foot become lame?
As I've said before, there may be a whole lot more eyeballs here than at NHC, but the matter behind those eyeballs is of an entirely different caliber.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well then...Some people are upset today...


whos upset?
Quoting atmoaggie:
As I've said before, there may be a whole lot more eyeballs here than at NHC, but the matter behind those eyeballs is of an entirely different caliber.


Yeah, and sometimes I think the eyeballs themselves! :p
Quoting Jedkins01:


Hey good choice to move here, we don't get hurricanes in the Tampa Bay area, as you will soon learn :)

We get an awful lot of hurricane hype in Tampa Bay for a tropical area that experiences snow more frequently than hurricane landfalls lol


Agree, I've lived in the Tampa Bay area for 45 years and I've see snow/sleet more times than experience hurricane force winds. It's funny, I remember seeing a graph that says Tampa experiences a hurricane like every 7-10 years (don't remember exactly) but that ain't true.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I don't understand what you are trying to point out...that seems right.
Normally when the percentage is 20% or less they do not specify possible tropical cyclone just a strong tropical wave.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


whos upset?
The site's tools have been successfully applied to a post they should have been.
1820. Patrap
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Normally when the percentage is 20% or less they do not specify possible tropical cyclone just a strong tropical wave.


Ohhh. I don't know, maybe they are seeing something we aren't.
Quoting atmoaggie:
The site's tools have been successfully applied to a post they should have been.

I noticed that comment was removed quickly.
1823. spathy
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Was it a supercell? The one that went through raleigh came right over my house, luckily the hook missed me but some people nearby weren't so lucky. How did that foot become lame?


It was last year.
Something tropical.
Or is my brain as lame as my foot?
Planters warts frozen BTW.
We were talking about your elevation and where inland was best to go.
I'm a proud weather nerd then Saint.

All hail the chart.
Quoting spathy:


It was last year.
Something tropical.
Or is my brain as lame as my foot?
Planters warts frozen BTW.
We were talking about your elevation and where inland was best to go.


Earl?
Quoting spathy:


It was last year.
Something tropical.
Or is my brain as lame as my foot?
Planters warts frozen BTW.
We were talking about your elevation and where inland was best to go.


Earl came a little close for comfort last year, I think that was it because I was off at college and my mom was calling asking what to do haha, so I asked on here.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
To the ones that get mad at folks bashing the Nhc?My only question is this, are they not a goverment agency?Are they not paid by the taxpayers of America?Now I agree they are trained experts, but are they God.Are they above being critisized.I believe I have a say if I as a taxpayer are footing the bill.But really gets me about the nursemaids on here for the NHc is the fact these are the same people that bash the presidents, the congress,the military,the postal service etc.Guess what; just like the NHC they are employed by the gov.Who is the gov? We are. We pay all thier salaries.I personally also find the Nhc is a very accurate and informative agency.But they are open game just like any other,To be so naive that its not possible they would not pad numbers is a joke.Do you believe our other gov agencies are always completly honest and upstanding lol The Cia lol,gov agency,FBI gov agency.I think the reason people are not as open minded on here because they are computer weather nerds and bashing the NHC would be well a sacrilidge.Funny how they do not seem to be near as offended on here when some one bashes God.Sign of the times I guess.Just MHO, which means nothing but maybe its something to think about.God bles and good day.


I don't think anyone got mad at anyone bashing the NHC. I was just a little irritated by the comment on the number padding. You know what's naive is not looking at the data before making a comment like that. I would love for you or anyone else to show me the data of all the tropical cyclones the NHC has named to "pad numbers."
I can sure show you evidence that says the opposite. If anything they are conservative in naming systems. How many times has this blog been in a frenzy saying a TD should've have been declared etc. And bringing religion into this argument is absolute nonsense.
StormW's blog this morning.

UPDATE…JULY 23, 2011 11:30 A.M. EDT:
It is once again quite this morning in the tropics. The office will be closed for the weekend…time to rest. I will be looking at things on and off however. On a reverse note, once the Cape Verde season begins, and we get a ramp up of activity, I will have the office open 7 days a week.
Oh man the blog has gone to he-- in a handbasket
I love it to Teddy but Job,kids ,elderly mother,20 acres to take care of and not to account kids very active in sports and also church function activities does not allow me the luxury to spend all my awaken hrs tracking tropical waves.But I still feel God has blessed me and my family and its them and him I devote my time to.Hobbies are nice but should not be put above neccessities .Take care.
12z GFS 128 hours, off Africa.
1833. spathy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Earl?


Yup
That was the one.
Thanks.
1834. Patrap
God's not a "paid" member, but she is a Huge Lurker she explained at Mardi Gras last March.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS 128 hours, off Africa.


Cyber - could you paste the link to the site you are pulling that version of the GFS. thx
Quoting Patrap:
God's not a "paid" member, but she is a Huge Lurker she explained at Mardi Gras last March.


and that occurred after how many drinks?
1837. 7544
90l is firing new convection at this hour may get better organize by tonight
90L RIP
Ice Coast I respet your opinion.But as a son of a WW2 veteran and countless uncles and friends that fought for this country no one has more love and respect for the U>S>A then me.Thats why people like Pat on this blog,regardless if I always agree with thier views they always have my respect first and foremost.But if you believe that a gov agency is always on the levelthan sir you are incorrect.But like I said before man tgoday seems to worry more about mans opinion than God's.I hope you have a good day,respect your opinion just dont agree.Got that right from all the ones who fought and died for us to have that freedom.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z GFS 128 hours, off Africa.


Wow, not even five days away from now. Let's see if it shows consistency.

That would be something...To get 90L (a far stretch), and then to get that to develop. Don and Emily...
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Cyber - could you paste the link to the site you are pulling that version of the GFS. thx

Link
lol God a girl Pat lol.Better watch that one lot of thunderstorms in the area today lol.Have a good day my friend.
1843. drs2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L RIP
Disagree.Convection is increasing.
1844. Patrap
Ice Coast I respet your opinion.But as a son of a WW2 veteran and countless uncles and friends that fought for this country no one has more love and respect for the U>S>A then me.Thats why people like Pat on this blog,regardless if I always agree with thier views they always have my respect first and foremost.But if you believe that a gov agency is always on the levelthan sir you are incorrect.But like I said before man tgoday seems to worry more about mans opinion than God's.I hope you have a good day,respect your opinion just dont agree.Got that right from all the ones who fought and died for us to have that freedom.


Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
lol God a girl Pat lol.Better watch that one lot of thunderstorms in the area today lol.Have a good day my friend.
As the son of a WW-2 Vet,and a Vet myself,I have the freedom to believe whatever I want.

Many died for that right... right?

Have a good one as well.
This series of major weather events since December 2009 has been unbelievable. From record high sea surface temperatures to several major & record snowstorms, record annual snowfalls, extremely long ski season in the west, incredible tornado outbreaks, record main stem river flooding, "some" record cold, "widespread and plentiful" record heat, record dew points, extreme heat index values, extreme drought. Of course there has always been extreme events, but so many 100 year events in this year and a half span, and I'm only talking about the United States. Of course, we'll have to wait longer to see if we have been violently shoved into new climate normals in this country. Of course, there are some historical temperature extremes that have yet to be broken in this country, but most of them will eventually go. All in all, average temperature is the main key. The only thing missing in this 1 year and 7 month period is a devastating hurricane season.
Experimental cyclone genesis probs

Nothing for three weeks:

90L is RIP wind shear too high
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
To the ones that get mad at folks bashing the Nhc?My only question is this, are they not a goverment agency?Are they not paid by the taxpayers of America?Now I agree they are trained experts, but are they God.Are they above being critisized.I believe I have a say if I as a taxpayer are footing the bill.But really gets me about the nursemaids on here for the NHc is the fact these are the same people that bash the presidents, the congress,the military,the postal service etc.Guess what; just like the NHC they are employed by the gov.Who is the gov? We are. We pay all thier salaries.I personally also find the Nhc is a very accurate and informative agency.But they are open game just like any other,To be so naive that its not possible they would not pad numbers is a joke.Do you believe our other gov agencies are always completly honest and upstanding lol The Cia lol,gov agency,FBI gov agency.I think the reason people are not as open minded on here because they are computer weather nerds and bashing the NHC would be well a sacrilidge.Funny how they do not seem to be near as offended on here when some one bashes God.Sign of the times I guess.Just MHO, which means nothing but maybe its something to think about.God bles and good day.


go ahead take away the only early warning system we have for hurricanes then we see how many get out the way when its coming
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Experimental cyclone genesis probs

Nothing for three weeks:



Never seen that before, how accurate is that?
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L is RIP wind shear too high

no it is not 5-10kt right near to it as shown on the 15Z shear map
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Never seen that before, how accurate is that?

not very at all I don't use it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
30-35W, 13N - Watch it...






That wave has some very strong vorticity to it. Spinning like a top.

Link
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Ice Coast I respet your opinion.But as a son of a WW2 veteran and countless uncles and friends that fought for this country no one has more love and respect for the U>S>A then me.Thats why people like Pat on this blog,regardless if I always agree with thier views they always have my respect first and foremost.But if you believe that a gov agency is always on the levelthan sir you are incorrect.But like I said before man tgoday seems to worry more about mans opinion than God's.I hope you have a good day,respect your opinion just dont agree.Got that right from all the ones who fought and died for us to have that freedom.


Well first and foremost I also respect your opinion, but I think we shouldn't compare the actions of government agencies such as the FBI or CIA with the NHC. I see no reason for the NHC to lie to us, and have not seen any evidence of them doing so for as long as i've watched the tropics. Like I said earlier, if anything they are conservative in there forecasts. It seems we have the exact opposite beliefs, and are never going to agree, but that's what makes this country great.
Have a good day. :)
Quoting DestinJeff:
Just for gits and shiggles:



Yes!!! It's "THE CHART"
1828 DestinJeff "The Chart does not actually dictate what happens, but rather actual atmospheric dynamics at any given time.
The Chart never changes, and thankfully has been posted into submission here so collectively we are less likely to assume a certain outcome based on its various peaks and such.
"

Be interesting to see a NewChart based on the most recent 20years (stretched vertically by a factor of 5) for comparison with The(100year)Chart.

And that 100years... Is the period covered revised every year, or is it just a static chart that really never changes from the years used when it was first created.
90L/INV/XX
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wet week.

Percent of normal rainfall better than 200% for most of SE LA:


1.5 inches so far today. That knee-high grass is happy (and safe for today).
did you check out the NO sounding thiis morning excessively moist all the way up
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
I love it to Teddy but Job,kids ,elderly mother,20 acres to take care of and not to account kids very active in sports and also church function activities does not allow me the luxury to spend all my awaken hrs tracking tropical waves.But I still feel God has blessed me and my family and its them and him I devote my time to.Hobbies are nice but should not be put above neccessities .Take care.
Glad to see u in the blog when u have the time... I respect your opinions though I may not always agree with them.

I think the problem with the "NHC bashing" that I've seen in this blog is not so much the criticism, but the tone of it. A lot of things can be said with respect and not be offensive. Now I didn't go back to read the posts u guys are referring to, but I think there's a place for constructive criticism of any group. When that stops at a governmental level, we start edging towards dictatorship.

However, some people figure they have to be rude with it... and while NHC is not by any means perfect, I think they deserve the respect due them as honorable men and women in the front line of tropical weather. Their responsibility is serious, and to malign their reputation by imputing to them dishonest motives [i.e. to pad their numbers] not only denigrates their status but also could amount to slander or libel.

Let's be clear. To disagree with NHC and its personnel is a perfectly legitimate thing to do; after all, nobody's perfect. But to call people liars in a public forum.... well, u all understand me when I say "them's fighting words".

So be careful little mouth what you say. And if you accuse someone of something, for God's sake have the facts / proof to back it up.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


and that occurred after how many drinks?
Can't believe God would get drunk like that and give up secrets so easy...
IMO 2pm TWO on 90L = 10%.
Anyone know why what happened to 90L happened? Looked at CIMSS vorticity and it virtually disappeared overnight. Shear was and still is around 10 kts, not to increase until later. Doesn't look like it ingested dry air. It had a very strong moisture shield and it was entering DMAX while it was losing it's organization.. Anyone determined the cause? Probably was the dry air after all.
90L and 33W seem to be picking up now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 2pm TWO on 90L = 10%.



A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND INTERACTION WITH
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

90L has virtually no chance of developing.
Quoting aspectre:
1828 DestinJeff "The Chart does not actually dictate what happens, but rather actual atmospheric dynamics at any given time.
The Chart never changes, and thankfully has been posted into submission here so collectively we are less likely to assume a certain outcome based on its various peaks and such.
"

Be interesting to see a NewChart based on the most recent 20years (stretched vertically by a factor of 5) for comparison with The(100year)Chart.

And that 100years... Is the period covered revised every year, or is it just a static chart that really never changes from the years used when it was first created.


If you stretched it vertically by a factor of 5, it would require a HUGE a-- piece of chart paper to display satisfactorally.
1868. nigel20
Tropical disturbances have a mind of there own; they can develope anytime they want to example: Cindy and Bret.
Good morning, everyone. Getting ready to take my Golden down to the lake to beat the heat for a little while before people begin showing up. Anything new going on with the tropics?
Thank you for point out and sharing the July temperature chart.

I have a question, although the "trend" is showing an increase of 1F per century, what does the "long term average" means? How long is the "long term"?
Thanks!