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Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2010

President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.


Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.

The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.


Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.

Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.

Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... AND 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-101145-
/O.CON.KBIS.WS.A.0008.101111T0000Z-101112T0000Z/
RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WARD-MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-
WELLS-FOSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOHALL...BOTTINEAU...ROLLA...MINOT...
TOWNER...RUGBY...GARRISON...MCCLUSKY...HARVEY...CARRINGTON
940 PM CST TUE NOV 9 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

* POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WARD AND MCHENRY COUNTIES
INTO RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU COUNTIES.

* ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AS
WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

$$
Weird!! Mystery missile off U.S. coast ignites buzz

Now on Yahoo Link

Snowy out West

Quoting sunlinepr:
Weird!! Mystery missile off U.S. coast ignites buzz

Now on Yahoo Link



I just read on CNN that it is an optical illusion caused by a contrail from a commercial jet, although I remain a little skeptical
Quoting sunlinepr:
Weird!! Mystery missile off U.S. coast ignites buzz

Now on Yahoo Link



I saw that this afternoon. No one takes responsibility for it. Odd, in the extreme.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Nice!

Hope you like this one.




Sure, seen vid before.... Solid Les Paul sound



I'm out for the night. Thanks for the good tunes, and the fun! Catch ya on the 'morrow.
Quoting tornadodude:


I just read on CNN that it is an optical illusion caused by a contrail from a commercial jet, although I remain a little skeptical


Quite interesting commentary there someone wrote:
I don't mind if they fired a missile going out of USA, I do mind if its coming to USA....
Gnite all

Before bed, I checked the GFS model at 150hrs and look South of Jamaica...... Interesting



Nam also shows...

Quoting sunlinepr:
Before bed, I checked the GFS model at 150hrs and look South of Jamaica...... Interesting



Nam also shows...



Hello everyone, I am just checking in. What does this mean?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good read Jed! How's school going?


Good so far!

Its interesting how my comment about God and the Bible gets deleted, despite the fact I was peacefully trying to get everyone to get back to weather and stop fighting about politics. However, its also interesting how all the comments backing political views, and other religious beliefs or lack there of were not deleted, despite them being far more antagonistic then mine.

Sure seems like an obvious bias to me. Why? Probably because I mentioned all having to give an account to God, or too much mentioning of God Himself...

Either way, I don't care, I will continue to to stand for what is right even if I do get banned for it... Everyone should have the right to give account to what they believe is true without there being bias towards someones specific belief.


BTW, as far as school detail, just dealing with the horry of calculus and chemistry lol. I'm loving my writing classes like world Literature though.

Other then that. As far as weather goes, climate predictions for Florida look wrong again. Well above average temps in November and well below normal rain as forecast sure aren't playing out too well now are they? lol
Quoting CaribbeanStorm:


Hello everyone, I am just checking in. What does this mean?


Low pressure could develop in the Caribbean in the next week or so.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Good so far!

Its interesting how my comment about God and the Bible gets deleted, despite the fact I was peacefully trying to get everyone to get back to weather and stop fighting about politics. However, its also interesting how all the comments backing political views, and other religious beliefs or lack there of were not deleted, despite them being far more antagonistic then mine.

Sure seems like an obvious bias to me. Why? Probably because I mentioned all having to give an account to God, or too much mentioning of God Himself...

Either way, I don't give a crap, I will continue to to stand for what is right even if I do get banned for it...


BTW, as far as school detail, just dealing with the horry of calculus and chemistry lol. I'm loving my writing classes like world Literature though.

Other then that. As far as weather goes, climate predictions for Florida look wrong again. Well above average temps in November and well below normal rain as forecast sure aren't playing out too well now are they? lol


No offense, but that sounds an awful lot like a persecution complex to me.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not me! As a long-time pastafarian, I answer only to the FSM, and am therefore subject to no such post-mortem reckoning.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image

:-)



Well whatever you believe my friend... Was just hoping you'd agree, but is a vast world lol.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No offense, but that sounds an awful lot like a persecution complex to me.



Persecution complex? Man, its funny how just mentioning God to some people who oppose it makes some people so judgmental. Dude lighten up.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Low pressure could develop in the Caribbean in the next week or so.


Thank you...mmmm, yes, that would be very interesting.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Persecution complex? Man, its funny how just mentioning God to some people who oppose it makes some people so judgmental. Dude lighten up.


I don't oppose God.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't oppose God.


Then the question is, why would you say persecution complex? That usually would mean referring to me as having some sort of psychological problem.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Then the question is, why would you say persecution complex? That usually would mean referring to me as having some sort of psychological problem.


I may not oppose your god (kind of hard for me to oppose something I don't believe in, after all), but that doesn't change the fact that I still think you are crying persecution where it isn't warranted.

Are you really trying to insinuate that those who flagged your comments for deletion are those with anti-Christian sentiments? Really? REALLY?
Quoting Jeff9641:


There is some very very cold air coming south later next week. Enjoy the warm air now as some models are hinting at possible freezes in FL in about 10 days if we were to use the GFS. FL looks to get quite a bit of rain next followed by very cold and windy wx.



I believe it. La Nina hasn't exactly been effecting our weather in Florida as of late. Or at least La Nina hasn't produced the typical weather. Computer models are indicating a continued trend towards the weather we have had during this first chilly week of November. Some more heavy rainfall would certainly be nice too. I picked up 1.78 inches last Thursday, was extremely needed and finally broke the all time dry streak with a bang here.

We bottomed out at 44 here on Sunday morning, absolutely shockingly cold for Pinellas county this time of year, the high didn't even break 60 on Saturday the day before either...

Even now, its still 51 and quite cold, already below tonight's forecast low of 54, but no surprise because today's high hit only 71 when it was projected at 78. Cold air was forecast well this weekend but cold air is now holding a lot stronger then the rapid warm up that was forecast.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I may not oppose your god (kind of hard for me to oppose something I don't believe in, after all), but that doesn't change the fact that I still think you are crying persecution where it isn't warranted.

Are you really trying to insinuate that those who flagged your comments for deletion are those with anti-Christian sentiments? Really? REALLY?


Well I don't have conversations if people get irrational with me, have fun lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well I don't have conversations if people get irrational with me, have fun lol.


Show me where I'm being irrational?


Jedkins01 What exactly did you say to get banned? Remember, some on this blog as in life, are extremely sensitive and can't take any form or ribbing without going berserk. Believe me, I know.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
What exactly did you say to get banned? Remember, some on this blog as in life, are extremely sensitive ad can't take any form or ribbing without going berserk. Believe me, I know.


You speak the truth.

I didn't get banned for anything. Not sure what you're referencing there.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You speak the truth.

I didn't get banned for anything. Not sure what you're referencing there.
Sorry, I meant to direct that question to Jedkins.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You speak the truth.

I didn't get banned for anything. Not sure what you're referencing there.


Oh, I realize now that you were talking to Jedkins, not me. Either way, my point still stands: I do value freedom of speech. As such, I will defend to death Jedkins' right to say what he wants to. Whoever flagged his posts, shame on you.
I rarely flag posts. I have not flagged any in a long time, certainly not today. That said people are fully within their rights to flag non-weather related posts that they feel are detrimental to this blog.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I rarely flag posts. I have not flagged any in a long time, certainly not today. That said people are fully within their rights to flag non-weather related posts that they feel are detrimental to this blog.


This is true, but I hope that's the only reason they flag them. Which something tells me, it's not.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, I realize now that you were talking to Jedkins, not me. Either way, my point still stands: I do value freedom of speech. As such, I will defend to death Jedkins' right to say what he wants to. Whoever flagged his posts, shame on you.


Agreed. Not sure about this flagging business. Can someone flag a post more than once? If so, that's crazy. I understand the flags also determine the quality of the post, which is selectable in the filters drop-down menu. Seems too subjective, that's why I always choose to view all - except those few trolls I have to ignore :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is true, but I hope that's the only reason they flag them. Which something tells me, it's not.


It surely is abused.
BTW, when there are no active systems, I find the petty disagreements highly amusing. And certainly no one is going to change someones opinion of religion, politics or even global warming with the quality of most (tho not all)
of the arguments presented here.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I rarely flag posts. I have not flagged any in a long time, certainly not today. That said people are fully within their rights to flag non-weather related posts that they feel are detrimental to this blog.
Yea, the political and religious stuff can get to be a bit annoying at times, especially on a blog where people come to escape some of that stuff. I like the GW talk alright, but it can be SO polarizing. I wish I could find an astronomy blog as diverse and active as this blog. Anyone know one? Hate to say it, but I am a little burnt out on the tropics right now.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
BTW, when there are no active systems, I find the petty disagreements highly amusing. And certainly no one is going to change someones opinion of religion, politics or even global warming with the quality of most (tho not all)
of the arguments presented here.


See, that's where I think you misunderstand. The purpose of debate isn't necessarily to change the other's mind, but rather, to test one's own convictions.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Yea, the political and religious stuff can get to be a bit annoying at times, especially on a blog where people come to escape some of that stuff. I like the GW talk alright, but it can be SO polarizing. I wish I could find an astronomy blog as diverse and active as this blog. Anyone know one? Hate to say it, but I am a little burnt out on the tropics right now.

I find following the storms and learning about forecasting totally fascintating, but I would not be sad to see the season over.
Quoting KoritheMan:


See, that's where I think you misunderstand. The purpose of debate isn't necessarily to change the other's mind, but rather, to test one's own convictions.


Be honest now. Have you ever changed your mind on any thing after commenting here? Decided your argument did not cut it?
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Be honest now. Have you ever changed your mind on any thing after commenting here? Decided your argument did not cut it?


Not through here no, but through other online outlets? Most definitely. I'm open-minded enough, unlike most, to admit when I'm wrong, and change my opinion accordingly.
Quoting KoritheMan:


See, that's where I think you misunderstand. The purpose of debate isn't necessarily to change the other's mind, but rather, to test one's own convictions.
A recent study showed that regular bloggers have a lower rate of Alzheimer's Disease but a higher rate of high blood pressure.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not through here no, but through other online outlets? Most definitely. I'm open-minded enough, unlike most, to admit when I'm wrong, and change my opinion accordingly.


I should also add that I change my mind in real life as well when the need arises. Also, I am not trying to place myself on a pedestal of superiority.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not through here no, but through other online outlets? Most definitely. I'm open-minded enough, unlike most, to admit when I'm wrong, and change my opinion accordingly.


That is a good thing, we always need to be open to new ideas and viewpoints, whether agreeing or not.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A recent study showed that regular blogger have a lower rate of Alzheimer's Disease but a higher rate of high blood pressure.


I think that's true, if I'm any indication. ;)
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


That is a good thing, we always need to be open to new ideas and viewpoints, whether agreeing or not.


That we do.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A recent study showed that regular blogger have a lower rate of Alzheimer's Disease but a higher rate of high blood pressure.


I would guess that active bloggers are most often Type A personalities, who are prone to high blood pressure.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


I would guess that active bloggers are most often Type A personalities, who are prone to high blood pressure.


Then again that does not explain the people blogging from Mom's basement. LOL
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think that's true, if I'm any indication. ;)
I don't think I'm senile yet either. Sounds like you have HBP too? :)
548. xcool
GFS 00z



UKMET 00Z


GGEM 00z



Good to see you posting Drak---tho not sure I like that model.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I don't think I'm senile yet either. Sounds like you have HBP too? :)


I do, and at a particularly young age too (19).
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z



Evening Drak! I'm glad to see you again.
553. xcool
god i miss being 19
Quoting KoritheMan:


Evening Drak! I'm glad to see you again.


Thank You. Looks like a couple of the models are seeing some potential in the Caribbean over the next 5-7 days. (See post 549).

Season may not be over yet.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I do, and at a particularly young age too (19).
Without seeming too personal, what do you take for it. Hopefully an ACE or ARB?
Good night Gentlemen. Hopefully the models will change their minds, I do not think anyone in the Carib wants a late season storm, but time will tell.
Quoting Drakoen:


Thank You. Looks like a couple of the models are seeing some potential in the Caribbean over the next 5-7 days. (See post 549).

Season may not be over yet.


Not a season like this one, no. Not by a longshot. I'd be vigilant for a possible December storm as well.
558. xcool


Forecast Surface Low Positions
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Without seeming too personal, what do you take for it. Hopefully an ACE or ARB?


Regrettably, nothing. I know I should probably start, but I'm stubborn.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Good night Gentlemen. Hopefully the models will change their minds, I do not think anyone in the Carib wants a late season storm, but time will tell.


Good night! Nice conversation tonight.
ECMWF 00z vorticity fields are showing a bit more than previous runs. Will be interesting to see if any development can occur down there. Shear could become quite favorable for development per the GFS wind shear forecast.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Regrettably, nothing. I know I should probably start, but I'm stubborn.
As you are probably aware the level of elevated BP on average is what counts. It would be good to know that. You may just be a borderline hypertensive. Now if your Dr already gave you the talk that you REALLY need to get on something, then it may be time to get cracking. There are generic meds with no side effects that treat hypertension very well.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
As you are probably aware the level of elevated BP on average is what counts. It would be good to know that. You may just be a borderline hypertensive. Now if your Dr already gave you the talk that you REALLY need to get on something, then it may be time to get cracking. There are generic meds with no side effects that treat hypertension very well.


I actually haven't went to the doctor for this, it's just an assumption on my part because I have frequent headaches, which I believe are induced by stress.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I actually haven't went to the doctor for this, it's just an assumption on my part because I have frequent headaches, which I believe are induced by stress.
Then you probably DON'T have hypertension. Headaches can be 2ndary to a myriad of things. Tension and sinus are big offenders at your age. Also vision and occasionally migraine. If your family history is positive I'd get it checked.
I see the blog has shifted from its earlier political/religious focus to a low-rent version of WebMD. ;-) Here, allow me to--once again--turn the talk back to weather:

It may be cool across the CONUS, but it's not been earth-shatteringly so; according to HAMweather, just six record low or low maximum temperature records have been set or tied in the past 24 hours, along with 15 record high or high minimums. IOW, nothing really out of the ordinary for the second week in November, and the eighth week of fall. Expect a cooldown on the west coast today, however, along with some very warm temps in the upper midwest: it's expected to be 15-20 degrees below normal in the central Rockies, while 15-20 degrees above normal in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois. (It's already unseasonably toasty--and then some--in some places; at the moment, it's the same temp in Davenport, Iowa, as it is in Miami; Tampa is the same temp as Minneapolis, and it's far colder in Tallahassee than it is in International Falls, Minnesota.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see the blog has shifted from its earlier political/religious focus to a low-rent version of WebMD. ;-) Here, allow me to--once again--turn the talk back to weather:

It may be cool across the CONUS, but it's not been earth-shatteringly so; according to HAMweather, just six record low or low maximum temperature records have been set or tied in the past 24 hours, along with 15 record high or high minimums. IOW, nothing really out of the ordinary for the second week in November, and the eighth week of fall. Expect a cooldown on the west coast today, however, along with some very warm temps in the upper midwest: it's expected to be 15-20 degrees below normal in the central Rockies, while 15-20 degrees above normal in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois. (It's already unseasonably toasty--and then some--in some places; at the moment, it's the same temp in Davenport, Iowa, as it is in Miami; Tampa is the same temp as Minneapolis, and it's far colder in Tallahassee than it is in International Falls, Minnesota.)
Morning. I don't think anyone else is on right now. Weather here has been great the past few days. A few showers and temps in the 70's.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I see the blog has shifted from its earlier political/religious discourse to a low-rent version of WebMD. ;-) Here, allow me to--once again--turn the talk back to weather:

It may be cool across the CONUS, but it's not been earth-shatteringly so; according to HAMweather, just six record low or low maximum temperature records have been set or tied in the past 24 hours, along with 15 record high or high minimums. IOW, nothing really out of the ordinary for the second week in November, and the eighth week of fall. Expect a cooldown on the west coast today, however, along with some very warm temps in the upper midwest: it's expected to be 15-20 degrees below normal in the central Rockies, while 15-20 degrees above normal in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois. (It's already unseasonably toasty--and then some--in some places; at the moment, it's the same temp in Davenport, Iowa, as it is in Miami; Tampa is the same temp as Minneapolis, and it's far colder in Tallahassee than it is in International Falls, Minnesota.)

Good Morning, from 42 degrees south.
Not a cloud in the sky, 12 celcius, and we are off to see the Orcas and Whales around Peninsula Valdez.
Visited the largest Penguin rookery yesterday. 250,000 nests. What surprised me was the fact that the Penguins make their nests up to 500 yards from the sea, in hollows in the sandy, rocky ground.
When these birds hactch their young, they take to the sea and swim north following the Anchovies as far as Brazil. Then they return. A round trip of some 3500 kilometers.
In that swim, they never get out of the sea.
Pretty amazing, when you look at the small size of these animals. They are Magellan Penguins.

The wind here never stops, blowing from the west.
The weather is dry just about all the time (less than 1 " per year) because the clouds dump all their moisture on the Chilean side of the Andes. Think of New Mexico/ Arizona but on a much larger scale.

Hope everyone is doing good....
00z GFS.. Virginie taking shape by Monday

00z GGEM/CMC.. Virginie strengthening in the Caribbean by Monday


NOGAPS, weak low by Monday


Nothing on the ECMWF.

UKMET, again.. Virginie taking shape by Monday
Good morning Pottery and StormwatcherCI. Beautiful weather here, and rain hopefully in a day or two.
Morning CybrTeddy,also. Sorry, didn't see you.
Quoting pottery:

Good Morning, from 42 degrees south.
Not a cloud in the sky, 12 celcius, and we are off to see the Orcas and Whales around Peninsula Valdez.
Visited the largest Penguin rookery yesterday. 250,000 nests. What surprised me was the fact that the Penguins make their nests up to 500 yards from the sea, in hollows in the sandy, rocky ground.
When these birds hactch their young, they take to the sea and swim north following the Anchovies as far as Brazil. Then they return. A round trip of some 3500 kilometers.
In that swim, they never get out of the sea.
Pretty amazing, when you look at the small size of these animals. They are Magellan Penguins.

The wind here never stops, blowing from the west.
The weather is dry just about all the time (less than 1 " per year) because the clouds dump all their moisture on the Chilean side of the Andes. Think of New Mexico/ Arizona but on a much larger scale.

Hope everyone is doing good....
NIce to hear you are enjoying yourself. Must be fascinating to see the penguins, whales etc.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning Pottery and StormwatcherCI. Beautiful weather here, and rain hopefully in a day or two.
Good morning. Are you still having problems with fires ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Are you still having problems with fires ?


The humidity has gone up, so fires and fire danger has gone down. We're currently 93% humidity. The drought is still bad though. Last I heard the Wrangler fire is 95% contained. May be out now. It's ironic that the rain and storms we so need are also the main cause of the fires we've had.
574. IKE
20 days...
18 hours...
23 minutes...and it's over...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting aislinnpaps:


The humidity has gone up, so fires and fire danger has gone down. We're currently 93% humidity. The drought is still bad though. Last I heard the Wrangler fire is 95% contained. May be out now. It's ironic that the rain and storms we so need are also the main cause of the fires we've had.
I know what you mean. I grew up in Miami and my father was a Dade County firefighter so I am well aware of the danger of brush fires. Also have a daughter and a son who are firefighters in Grand Cayman and during the dry months it is constant bush fires and dump fires.
What?
Nobody here is predicting a Volcano for FL?, the way they wish Hurricanes on us?
577. IKE
Quoting JoeBarnickel:
What?
Nobody here is predicting a Volcano for FL?, the way they wish Hurricanes on us?


They've all given up for the season, but they'll be back in about 7 months.

Quoting IKE:


They've all given up for the season, but they'll be back in about 7 months.

And then all he*# will break loose as usual.
CMC takes what appears to be Virgine into the Yucatan then across FL as a remnant low. Either way it is looking like a nice dump of rain is coming to FL sometime next week.
Euro seems similar to the CMC in taking what's left of Virgine across FL later next week. I would seriously watch the SW Caribbean as now all the models are showing development there early next week. Hurricane Season 2010 still has a storm left.
581. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
And then all he*# will break loose as usual.


True.

This blog is in snooze mode.
582. IKE
I'm having a Crystal Blue Persuasion this morning....



Here's another great morning beat!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtwJvgPJ9xw
Quoting pottery:

Good Morning, from 42 degrees south.
Not a cloud in the sky, 12 celcius, and we are off to see the Orcas and Whales around Peninsula Valdez.
Visited the largest Penguin rookery yesterday. 250,000 nests. What surprised me was the fact that the Penguins make their nests up to 500 yards from the sea, in hollows in the sandy, rocky ground.
When these birds hactch their young, they take to the sea and swim north following the Anchovies as far as Brazil. Then they return. A round trip of some 3500 kilometers.
In that swim, they never get out of the sea.
Pretty amazing, when you look at the small size of these animals. They are Magellan Penguins.

The wind here never stops, blowing from the west.
The weather is dry just about all the time (less than 1 " per year) because the clouds dump all their moisture on the Chilean side of the Andes. Think of New Mexico/ Arizona but on a much larger scale.

Hope everyone is doing good....

Another place on my bucket list. sigh...
JB this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM

MORE ON TEMPERATURE PROBLEMS.

I am using LGA as a classic example of what happens when either a) a thermometer is not kept up with or b) such data is incorporated as an example of how the earth is warming up. The fact is that many sites today were a) not data points 50 years ago or b) certainly have a different exposure than what they did then.

There is a north to north northwest wind around NYC this morning with a well mixed air mass. There is no reason for LGA on that wind, with that exposure to be 2 degrees warmer than the average of all the stations around them. What gives it away most is the JFK reading.. for the wind and gradient there has to be travelling over a longer distance of exposure to warm upstream conditions ( NYC) than LGA.

Or does it? NYC is colder than LGA this morning.

Now it makes sense on a west southwest wind that LGA would be warmer than everyone else. And lately when the wind has been west southwest you can count on LGA staying 3-6 degrees warmer on a summer night. That is probably too warm also, but one can understand it However there is no reason for things like this.

I am ranting on this for two reasons. One has to do with my continued driving home of the bigger picture by showing glaring examples of smaller picture problems with the facts. The other is that my job here at accuweather.com has me advising major players in the weather derivative markets and one of the sites people love to play with is LGA. For the month of November, a week before the market was trading at plus one for November. I had a pure number of -3 based on incremental forecasts through the month, but after adjustment, it was made -.5, currently its at -1. But the tortured way one has to adjust to such things because of what may or may not be going on at a site, due to lack of upkeep. is absurd. For instance. If my "raw number" for a site is -3, since it is a 30 day forecast, I will cut it in half ( factoring for climo) But in LGA's case you cant do just that, you must then adjust more, up to a degree warmer. So a month that may "add up" to -3 gets a forecast of -.5

This should not be going on.

Another site is Las Vegas. The airport up until 30 years ago was in the desert, so nights were much cooler. Now, the city has been built around the airport. While almost all of Nevada needs a normal month to produce normal temps, Las Vegas needs it 3 Below NORMAL to produce a normal reading.

In a way, I am simply following what my dad did years ago, JUNE 28,1969 , when the Atlantic City airport claims to have had a high of 106 on an afternoon with a howling south wind and only DCA hitting 100..no one around them was within 5 degrees. This was recorded as the all time record high at the airport. It shows up as a single day record at DC of 100, but 106..in Jun, on a south wind? PHL did not even hit 97! And with good reason. Since my dad was working at the research branch, he went out there and by using other thermometers found a 10 degree error..the error on the thermometer was such that at freezing it was fine, but as the temp moved away from freezing, there was an expanding error! Believe I learned first hand about those things through long painful labs in instrumentation at PSU. The fact is a thermometer is much more likely to have a warm bias than cold bias, because any impurity can force it to read warm.

Speaking of PSU, their thermometer site is now a joke in relation to past years, as it is now surrounded by buildings, including one that is referred to as the Ponte Vechio since it crosses 322, the main highway here. It has to be impossible to get a record cold night there unless the wind is blowing 60 miles an hour, since now there is now way the radiative cold that was right there for the taking back in the 70s can get in there.

So now use your common sense. What do you think is going on with temperatures worldwide based on thermometers, as opposed to satellite readings?

And in one fell swoop you see why I am the way I am about the rush to judgement in the AGW issue..part heredity, part the scars from instrumentation here at PSU and part common sense as to what is going on.

But in the case of LGA,and alot of other sites, you cant even trust your own eyes if what you are looking at is not what it appears to be.

ciao for now ****
Happy Birthday to the US Marine Corps.

November 10, 1775-2010

235 Proud years
I'm crankin this blog this morning!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UFIYGkROII
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Birthday to the US Marine Corps.

November 10, 1775-2010

235 Proud years


GO ARMY!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM

MORE ON TEMPERATURE PROBLEMS...


[much flocculent commentary omitted]

And in one fell swoop you see why I am the way I am about the rush to judgement in the AGW issue..part heredity, part the scars from instrumentation here at PSU and part common sense as to what is going on.

JB, JB: thy name is monomania... ;-)

GW Facts


February of 1992 the Gallup Organization polled members of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society, the two professional groups for climatologists. Only 17 percent said warming trends so far convinced them that an artificial greenhouse effect was in progress.

Only 13 percent of the scientists responding to a survey conducted by the environmental organization Greenpeace believe catastrophic climate change will result from continuing current patterns of energy use.



The eruption of volcano Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 caused the "Year Without Summer" becaue of global cooling. Due to the destruction of crops, disease, contamination of water, etc., tens of thousands more died in the next few following years.(once again global warming is better then global cooling)

In 1991 Volcano Pinatubo caused the entire earth to cool by 1/2 degree for over one year.

The doomsday hurricanes of 2006 global warming alarmists were predicting and hoping for never happened. Infact it was a relatively slow year.

2007 is also predicted to be a busy year for hurricanes. If you predict it every year you have to eventually be right.

"Records" for hurricanes will always be broken because we have only kept "records" for about 100 years.


Quoting pottery:

Good Morning, from 42 degrees south.
Not a cloud in the sky, 12 celcius, and we are off to see the Orcas and Whales around Peninsula Valdez.
Visited the largest Penguin rookery yesterday. 250,000 nests. What surprised me was the fact that the Penguins make their nests up to 500 yards from the sea, in hollows in the sandy, rocky ground.
When these birds hactch their young, they take to the sea and swim north following the Anchovies as far as Brazil. Then they return. A round trip of some 3500 kilometers.
In that swim, they never get out of the sea.
Pretty amazing, when you look at the small size of these animals. They are Magellan Penguins.

The wind here never stops, blowing from the west.
The weather is dry just about all the time (less than 1 " per year) because the clouds dump all their moisture on the Chilean side of the Andes. Think of New Mexico/ Arizona but on a much larger scale.

Hope everyone is doing good....




Cool trip!!! I'm soooooo envious!
595. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Howdy all!
Morning guys!

93L is having one of its "better" morning today.

Tomas is still a 45-60 mph Storm (Post-tropical).