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India's shocking failure to provide hurricane warnings for Pakistan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2007

A very serious failure occurred on the part of India's Meteorological Department (IMD) yesterday, when they failed to provide adequate warnings for a devastating tropical cyclone that hit Pakistan. Cyclone 03B, which struck the coast of Pakistan at 02 GMT June 27, has killed at least 17 and left 250,000 homeless in that nation, according to early news reports. Under mandate from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), India is responsible for warning the shores of all nations along the North Indian Ocean, including Pakistan. Cyclone 03B was at least a strong tropical storm when it hit Pakistan, and was probably a Category 1 hurricane. Microwave satellite imagery near the time of landfall (Figure 1) shows a well-developed tropical cyclone with spiral banding and a cloud free eye. Yet IMD never even gave the storm a name, and merely classified it as a a "deep depression," with winds less than tropical storm force (39 mph). At 00 GMT June 26, two hours before landfall, the position of Cyclone 03B given by IMD was probably in error by at least 60 miles. One hour later, at 01 GMT, with landfall just one hour away, the IMD shipping advisory said that landfall was still 12 hours away. The IMD website, with the warnings, was offline and not available for approximately twelve hours beginning with the landfall period. It's important not to judge IMD before all the facts are known, but I can't fathom any excuse that can account for what appears, at best, to be criminal incompetence. I hope the WMO fully investigates this complete failure of India's Meteorological Department to protect the lives and welfare of those living along the Pakistani coast. Much more information on this dismaying story is presented in today's View From the Surface blog, which I have used to construct this short summary.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Cyclone 03B at 0113 GMT June 26, 2007, about one hour before landfall. Note the cloud free eye and well-developed spiral banding, indicative of a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane.

Atlantic tropical update
Clouds and showers associated with a westward-moving tropical wave over the Bahamas, near the east coast of Florida, show no signs of organization. With wind shear at 20-30 knots, I'm not expecting any development of this disturbance. The next best chance of development in the Atlantic may be Monday, when a cold front will push off the U.S. East Coast. We'll have to watch the area between Florida and North Carolina when the remains of the front stall out over the Gulf Stream. Also, the area just north of Panama in the Southwest Caribbean needs to be watched beginning Saturday, when wind shear values are forecast to drop below 5 knots.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

tampa are you the same tamap from stormchat???
Alec=Upstanding member of this community!
aron got the Ignored List done
PBG00 - My wife works on Donald Ross, that's near you isn't it ?
506. PBG00
Yeah..I am a bit south of there..and it came down hard!
First storm of 2004 formed on July 31st.
510. PBG00
and they kept on comin..right into florida!
do any of you work for any weather stations
We can watch blobs. This is a tropical blog isn't it??
Darn..... Its either that or GW.
Stormkat. You are completley and totally unimpecablly wrong. While storms may not form until july.. even a weak la nina increase storm activity in our tropics 10 fold. That is just how it works. Neutral conditions to weak la nina IS WHAT HAPPENED IN 05 DUH!!! LOOK WHAT HAPPENED THERE! ARE YOU CRAZY OR JUST CONFUSED?!?!?!? i respect your OPINIONS but you need to know that they are NOT FACTUALLY BASED. I pray that there is no neutral or weak la nina stuff this year. if there isn't then we will be fine. also katrina haunted if anyone at all, max mayfield who resigned. Bill proenza is not haunted by it and would never EVER let it control the nhcs forecasts. They will tell the TRUTH and that is that. Still you where half right. it is probabaly not likeley for a storm to from during this time period. It will be next week or the week
after.
sorry do not mean to offend you in any way. I have been told similar things myself and offer my help.
texas
Good Night Folks.
i didnt say no lanina this year i SAID A VERY WEAK ONE IS FORMING AND IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE HURRICANE SEASON THAT MUCH THIS YEAR

Not likely, even if no La Nina forms or only a weak one:

The most active seasons in terms of storm number numbers and percentage of named storms achieving hurricane and major hurricane status are those with a neutral with cold bias

That means a neutral season with cooler than normal waters developing in the Pacific - which describes this year as of right now (a cold bias doesn't mean that a La Nina has developed, only that the Pacific has cooled - which it has because we had an El Nino just a few months ago). Here are the current SST anomalies - mostly cooler than normal in the Nino regions:

Buhdog, check out Barometer Bob...May be a good opportunity for ya

Join us in Storm Chat also

SW, jp, come on over for the show too!


hey evere one put stormkat in your Ignored List and his commets will be gone from the blog
Isn't he in the White House? LOL!

Thats what I thought storm, but I have been informed that it means Global Warming.......
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 12:12 PM EDT on June 28, 2007.

All they had to do is log on to WU and they would have had all the info they needed.

I wonder how many people in Pakistan even have computers or Internet access, much less know about Weather Underground or other weather sites?

Posted By: ihave27windows at 12:13 PM EDT on June 28, 2007.

Excellent question Michael.

I'm still shaking my head about that comment.


Didn't you feel the sarcasm?

Even if the sarcasm was inadvertent, it was there. There is no way that was a serious statement on the part of Dodabear. . .
so do you think this year will be simular to 2004
hey evere one put stormkat in your Ignored List and his commets will be gone from the blog

Where is the ignore list??
Hey TampaHurricane whats up. Largo here
ha i live in st.pete
done taz actually no. Everyone has a right to freedom of speach even if it is bad speach.
Never mind, I found it.
535. Alec
for clarification, I am not a stormtop impersonator.....there are many ST mimickers that have been around the past few yrs......Just thought Id let you guys know who arent aware, since rumors tend to get spread......done with that rant...LOL

Tropics are somewhat quiet for now......
Evening all,

I've been reading about the India-Pakistan thing, including lots of posts that say things like "what's so shocking?"

I'd say what's so shocking is that India agreed to take on the forecasting responsibility in the first place. Also, by blatantly not providing the appropriate warning on more than one occasion, I am sure they have jeopardized their standing in the WMO's Tropical Cyclone reporting system. It's shocking that this would not have been considered before such an action was taken (or, more accurately, NOT taken).

Somebody raised the example of Egypt and Israel. Let's put it this way; after Egypt dropped the ball twice, is Israel likely to keep accepting forecasts from them?
I have a question about African Dust. I firmly believe that last year season was surpressed by dust just as must as El Nino.

Every time I turn on a tropical update on the TV they are talking about a surge of African Dust.

My question is that is what we are seeing in the dust normal for this time of year or could we see dust choking the Atlantic again this year as we get into Aug and Sept.
hey all
quit bashing stormkat/stormtop hes just making a prediction we all have freedom of speech.
Sent you an email TampaHurricane
540. Alec
There's been studies that have shown that dust itself doesnt hamper hurricanes, but dry air does(dust can act like condensation nucleii for cloud droplets)......
Posted By: tampahurricane at 1:34 AM GMT on June 29, 2007.

so do you think this year will be simular to 2004

According to present data and current ocean status, there seems to be overwhelming data confirming 2007 will be extremely active.
Neutral La Nina with cooling conditions have been confirmed with the World Observatory
Close to 20 named storms is likely. Landfalling hurricanes are estimated to reach 4-7 hurricanes.
storm junkie is talking on the barameter bob show!!!!! link: http://www.wrbn.net/
did the wave by the lesser antilies die already ?
almost...almost. weve almost got him" says shear. lol! wave almost dead.
thank you whirlwind
i sent you an email severeweatherfreak
Posted By: whirlwind at 8:55 PM CDT on June 28, 2007.

Posted By: tampahurricane at 1:34 AM GMT on June 29, 2007.

so do you think this year will be simular to 2004

According to present data and current ocean status, there seems to be overwhelming data confirming 2007 will be extremely active.
Neutral La Nina with cooling conditions have been confirmed with the World Observatory
Close to 20 named storms is likely. Landfalling hurricanes are estimated to reach 4-7 hurricanes.



Whoa... can you post a link to that?
do you think a lot of storms will come in the gulf or hit florida
Hey Alec.. i remember u =]
I am in SE cape JEFF NOLES...only drizzle here.

Sure looked nasty.
I need to find that link again. I was reading that last night, thats just a summary of what it said.

As far as storms in the gulf and FL...well, so far the set up with the burmuda high and steering currents do indicate a south east US hit. It all depends. Unlikely most will recurve.
552. Alec
Hey Roman.....Not around too much during the week....I intern at local NWS.....and undergoing research project with some of the staff......

thank you whirl wind
I personally think the EAST COAST of the United States is overdue for a major hurricane hit, with the last one being Hurricane Fran of 1996. Isabel almost was a major hurricane, but didn't quite make it, though it was still quite catastrophic.

Despite the troughs, I disagree (remember, that this is all an opinion; I could very well be wrong) about a similar pattern to 2006. Even if this has been happening for two months, troughs happen naturally every year. If the troughs aren't that strong, then there's nothing to recurve anyway, though vertical wind shear increases could inhibit tropical cyclogenesis in the tropical cyclone breeding grounds throughout the season.

I personally don't want a major hurricane landfall anywhere this year in the U.S., but I would like to see at least one tropical storm make landfall somewhere. A year like 1990 is something I just can't imagine. Those are wimp years (yes they are fortunate, but to me, weather has to be interesting for me to notice it). A tropical storm is not that dangerous unless it stalls like Allison in 1989 or Allison in 2001, and produces torrential flooding rainfall. The tornadoes they produce are usually weak and short-lived, as well. I know for a fact that the U.S. can take another tropical storm, maybe not anything beyond a Category 1 hurricane, but a tropical storm isn't going to hurt anybody, especially considering how fast they dissipate after landfall.
tampa..

alot of BS going on in here. Just be ready for a busy season. we can all argue about blobs and if they will become a cat 5.. lol... just be informed and use common sense
Hey all, good to see you out Alec, HR ☺

KM- jp, Barometer Bob, and myself were just discussing the troughs and apparently they are actually much weaker then they have been the past few years which could lead to less recurving of storms.

Since we're all being so nitpicky this evening:

Spelling Lesson # 1

allude: refer to, mention indirectly

elude: avoid, not remember

I would allude to the persons who misspelled these words earlier in the blog, but their screennames currently have eluded me.

I know it's not weather, but I couldn't resist ;o).

Now back to your regularly scheduled blog argument . . .
thanks for all the information an see all you guys latter and stop all the argueing....lol....
FYI:


nitpicky
From Wiktionary
(Redirected from nit-picky)


English

Adjective
nitpicky

finicky; overly critical; concerned with insignificant details

noticed another wave at 35 west in the central atlantic will the shear get to it too . or can it have a chance just asking
Posted By: KoritheMan at 2:17 AM GMT on June 29, 2007.

I personally think the EAST COAST of the United States is overdue for a major hurricane hit, with the last one being Hurricane Fran of 1996. Isabel almost was a major hurricane, but didn't quite make it, though it was still quite catastrophic.


I really don't know where you thought Hurricane Fran was the last major hurricane on the east coast. We've recently had Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 (a cat 3 landfall) and Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Frances almost a major hurricane. A little off there lol
I think Kori was referring to the East Coast as the coastline from Georgia to Maine (with the east coast of Florida being included with the rest of Florida).
whirlwind,

kewl! That's exactly the point I was trying to make.

If I have to read nitpicky comments for an hour before I can get caught up from the morning, they can at least be spelled right . . .

LOL

Frankly, I'd rather talk about weather.
EAST COAST might have been the north east coast.

they need one this year... lmao

naa....the fingers are pointed at fl this year
I think Kori was referring to the East Coast as the coastline from Georgia to Maine (with the east coast of Florida being included with the rest of Florida).

Thanks, STL. That's exactly what I was referring to.
Is it possible that shift in MDO in 1995 has changed the prevailing steering currents? It seems like when I was growing up, hurricanes always recurved towards N.C or bermuda. Last year being the exception, The overall steering pattern has seemed to shift gradually westward since late 90's.
The MDO doesn't seem to really affect steering currents.These things just sometimes get stuck in place for years on end.
Posted By: whirlwind at 2:40 AM GMT on June 29, 2007.

EAST COAST might have been the north east coast.

they need one this year... lmao

naa....the fingers are pointed at fl this year


Ok...KoritheMan was reffering to the upper-east coast. Was slightly confused though, because usually Florida is included when mentioning the east coast.

I think Florida, not saying either the panhandle or the east coast, will probably get slammed by a hurricane this year...major or not, at least one hurricane will probably hit Florida...

I think the GOM will not get hit by as many hurricanes this year as in 2005...I'm thinking more of a 2004 setup...but remember, one hurricane hitting the gulf coast could be a major catastrophe...let's just hope that doesn't happen this year.

Ummm...I know some people on here saying this year may turn out like 2006...Well, last year was El Nino and we got 10 storms out of that...This year seems more reasonable it will be neutralish La Ninaish (lol)...and a 2004/2005 hurricane season might not be a suprise...We are not even starting July yet, so nobody has any clue on what will for sure pan out this season...As many has said, 2004 (Four Hurricanes Hitting Florida in the same 2 Months), 2004 did not even start with the "A" storm until August time...this 2-3 days from July even beggining, so you can't, with-out a doubt, say this will be like 2006 or 2005.
We may not have 2 major hurricanes this July like 2005, but the season doesn't actually start heating up until around mid-August time...so all we gotta do is cross our fingers and hope that this year will not be like 2004/2005, but it probably will and all the clues point out it will also..but mostly you gotta wait until August time to see how this season wll unfold.

lol..sorry for this post being too long, just gotta add that the disturbance near the Antilles and the Bahamas disturbance will 95% will not form any time soon. Maybe, though, keep your eyes on the waves heading towards the Caribbean and GOM....If shear is low enough, any remnants from those waves could easily spin up...also, as a lot of people are saying and models agreeing, a trough could be coming off the east coast and a lot of the times around June-July a tropical depression/tropical storm spins up...I give something forming there early next week 60%, and that's only if this forecast of something coming off the east coast actually does.

-Justin~
Wow it looks like there hot SSTs off the west Coast of Cuba
I think in any year Florida is always at risk, whether its a El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, Nadda, any
I have noubt that youre probably right. Do you know if any of our scientists or universities has looked into pattern shifts or strengh of Bermuda Azores High during duration of MDO say '30s-'50s or late '50s hrough'95?
No I don't.Generally,there is just no correlation.1945-1950 had Florida getting hit hard.1953-55 had the Carolinas and New England getting hit hard.'95-2003 it was generally the Carolinas and Bermuda.'04 it was Florida,and '05 the Gulf coast.The variation seems to happen on too small a scale to be the MDO.
It's POURING RAIN Now !
I know NHC has done a more comprehensive study of landfall patterns back to 1880 or earlier and they seem to see a decadal pattern, with the Gulf getting hit a lot in the early 1/2 of a particular decade while the East Coast would get hit in the latter 1/2. (I'm not quoting or even summarizing - this is just the general idea.) I don't know if they made a connection to the MDO, though. Possibly a lack of useful data?
If you dont want to discus the weather, even blobs, its real easy, just go away. Blobs rock.

I don't see why people feel the need to come here and state the obvious about a system not being this or that then wonder why when there actually is a hurricane they lack basic tracking skills.

Anyway, the weak low near Florida seems to be decisively over south Florida now which is actually more in line with the GFS, although perhaps a bit early and west of where it should be for some of the other models. (850 vort / Pressure readings)

Shear is still high. But drops off the west coast of fl.
Me too. Good night all.
Goodnite folks!
I dunno. Go back to flipping burgers and fries at Wendy's in the meantime? Just be quiet and go back to sleep until a professional forecaster has anything real to say that actually matters in the meantime k?lol If you live among the gulf coast, and make a significant living from debris cleanup..then don't expect anything significantly so along your way until late August/early September. In the meantime, get your butts back to work!lol
See.

No real interest in meteorology drives them. you figured that out. I rest my case.
581. Rodek
Evening folks! Been reading the blog off and on all day (started at 0630 it's now 2330). Had a lightning bolt start a small brush fire in my area. No rain though.... LOL... Getting tired so, off to bed.
Exactly; )
My new blog is up, folks. Tell me how you like it. :-p
JF, thanks for the accurate info. not a wishcaster and always reasonable.
From the looks of the dopler off of Miami, FL I'd say there is rotation going on...is that the case or am I just wrong?
Investigated?

What's the WMO going to do, send their army after India? At best they'll get a meaningless apology from India about this incident.

This is why you never let another country tell you your own weather.
tspree15 I think there is some. Also the buoy wind readings in the keys seems to indicate a surface low.

The Florida blob is hanging on good despite the shear. There are some intense storms in the Miami area.

There is some incredible convection coming off South America and moving towards the panama area. That is going to be a good watch down there.

The GFS seems to park the "Bermuda high" pretty far out there in the coming weeks. It seems a little strange.

Oh - Thanks borlando.

WOW ! IT's POURING BUCKETS of RAIN now !
Dumping real good in Lake Worth. Straight up the coast.
check out the massive SW Caribbean/EE Pacific blow up
high wind shear precludes tropical storm development thru the ALT CARIB AND GOMEX for the next 2wks
this is the current shear map

Link
See.

No real interest in meteorology drives them. you figured that out. I rest my case.


Geez, JFlorida, u are really hard on us. Some of us finally heading to bed at 12:15 a. m. EDT had been in the blog since 5:00 a.m. yesterday morning! SOME of us need to sleep. . . .

LOL
Morning everybody,

Just took a quick look at the maps. Did anyone is S. Fl actually get rain from our little area of disturbed weather overnight?

We got very little in Nassau overnight, with skies clearing and winds subsiding after the bulk of the system moved north. It seems camped out over the Gulf Stream for now. If it doesn't move much in the next little while, would that increase the potential for something more organized to form? I was thinking GS=good source of tropical heating+spinoff from Twave=potential development . . .

SW Caribbean is favorable, stoormfury

what does sst anomalies mean? is it a comparision from years past, and if so what year do they compare it to?
its the difference from the average. im not sure how many years they count as the average, i would assume all that they have.
West Palm has gotten 1 1/2 to 2 inches of rain.
Double post :(
Errrr.....
Double post :(

Computer is acting nutty.
id like to see what sunlight does to all of this
602. MahFL
I have always found that map Storyofthecane posted to be quite useless, where the blob is it says favourable, but the blob is being sheared to hell from the west....
Any comments anyone ?
look at all the circulation

shear isnt too bad either

Link I don't think this can be good if the CMC is correct. It looks like is the Canadian High comes down to ridge with the B/A High. Isn't that the situation we had in 2004?
Good morning storm.
Posted By: MikeOhio at 3:35 AM EDT on June 29, 2007.

Investigated?

What's the WMO going to do, send their army after India? At best they'll get a meaningless apology from India about this incident.

This is why you never let another country tell you your own weather.


WMO can take the forecast responsibility from them and give it to someone else. Who else, you may ask? Well, why not Pakistan?

As to letting another country tell you your own weather, sometimes you don't have a choice. The WMO is an organization like the UN, with shared responsibilities. Member met. offices are supposed to put aside individual differences in order to ensure that accurate information is submitted. After all, weather is more important than politics. So even if they have the forecast capabilities, Pakistan's meteorologists would hesitate to issue alternate information, since they are not the "official" source and since they appear to be following the conventions agreed to as part of WMO.

I don't think India expects to get into hot water about this, but they should.
well if this is not high wind shear . then what is responsible for the stretching out of the blob in the sw caribbean. see water vapour image
Link
Dr.Masters did say to watch the SW Carib JP said Shear below 5 knots hes right on.
jphurricane2006

ok on review of the wv image i might agree, but there is still lots of shear.
Link I don't think this can be good if the CMC is correct. It looks like is the Canadian High comes down to ridge with the B/A High. Isn't that the situation we had in 2004?
Good Morning All....Funny how the Florida system is "pressed/mashed" on the West side in a line parallel to the coastline...I do see a weak rotation on Doppler, and would hazard a guess that it would have had a good chance at tropical storm status if a) the shear was a bit lower and b) the convecation was closer to the Bahamas.....As it currently stands, it is a big rainmaker (my boss just called to advise that he is stranded in Miami because of flight delays due to weather)..........
(my boos just called to advise that he is stranded in Miami because of flight delays due to weather)

Should have taken the train.........
WPB...What is the weather like on the ground in your parts?.....
WPB...What is the weather like on the ground in your parts?.....

It was raining but it has stopped.
627. IKE
The tropical Atlantic is quiet and looks to remain so. Great news........
In WPB Over 2 inches of rain overnite east of Turnpike. West of turnpike nothing. Seemed like seabreeze activity that usualy forms west of turnpike in adfternoon. Lots of thunder. Now it's cleared a little. The clouds look very moisture laden. I Don't think it's done raining yet. Too bad the Lake didn't get any of this so far.
bob am I the only one sick of these dam* low pressure areas spoiling our rain potential. Ya we'lll still get som good rains, but the loww centered near Lako Okee is keeping lots of deep convection from moving onshore...




Seriously. These lows always "save the day" and disrupt our weather. Not sure if anybody else noticed this...
I mean oh ya I definitely expect convection to really fire with the afternoon heating, but it looks like the formation of this low is preventling the more widespread enhanced rains from ever moving onshore too much.
Morning all.
LOL JP. Ok, I am in charge. Probably going to be a boring day here at work, so I will have plenty of time to pass.b
Good morning all and I am glad to see all of the regulars are still here. Been gone for a while but I'm back now and I see that we have an invest on our hands. I guess the NHC wanted to check the system in the keys out further.
..invest?
Yes according to NAVY website it is now 95L...
No invest. Unless I missed something.
Well flip my Grits..LOL

Link

Atlantic

green ball icon 95L.INVEST
Well then the Navy website must be wrong because they're calling it 95L...Link
I'll be damned!
Glad to be of service to my humble master weather watchers...
95L IS a Green Ball...nice pick-up BrandonC. A gold Star for YOU!

6
Awwww I'll put that next to the other 1/2 star I recieved last year... Thanks Patrap.
wtf why I don't I get a goldstar....



What is this madness?




lol
JP,
Now the models will run and Dr.Masters will update this on his blog after he drinks some coffee
Your a heavy now brandonC, Bada Bing..You likea Italian..Lets do lunch!..LOL
The area is Broad ..with potential..but as the frame pic shows..the invest is a wide area..not just the Clouds off se Fla..
95LINVEST.20kts-1015mb-263N-807W


LOL, got it Patrap. It obviously was just called 95L due to the fact there are very little satellite images up on Navy website and no model runs out for it. Plus I figured someone on here would have spotted it eventually. Just happy I spotted it first cause I got the coveted gold star...
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin

Link
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:00 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

yup area in the bahamas has now been deemed 95L, hmmm intersting are they thinking possible organization when it gets out over the Atlantic

like Jedkins had said earlier the low has become better organized over south florida and I had heard from some meteorologists this morning that is was now a tropical low




Is it just me of has Florida been in an unlucky streak where low pressure areas always park their dry side over us and the wetside remains offshore. I mean com on. Home many times can this happen! lol




Good storms will still fire with daytime heating overland so rain will be good along the west coast, but if this low wasn't interfering, a lot more could fall cause it would just slwly sweep across the state.


Oh well. We'll still be getting plenty of rain. Not hitting out potential though.
They put the center just off shore of North Miami.
No not really JP,
its almost on land and 1015MB thats way too high and its all in the ATL, nothing in FL really this will lower our rain chances again central FL. We need an open wave:)
JP,
Remember its all good and now Dr.Masters has a blog to write so it will be awesome that his something to write about.
I don't get it why is it an invest when its over land.

There is a broad center of low pressure over Florida with the opproximate center near lake Okeechobee. This thing is horribly disoraganized if you as me. Its keeping the highest lift and most widespread enhanced activity offshore. You'd think cyclonic flow would throw it all into the state. Well its not because this low is so weak.



This thing is no invest lol, must be a mistake, a 1015 mb low that doesn't even have enough spin to throw activity back onshore in cyclonic flow.


Hey if it is, it is, but I don't see why its an invest.
I know its sounds weird. But I repeat, the center is over land.
Does the FLA, Bahama BLOB have a COC? I just got on so I haven't read anything. Will this affect my flight out of JAX FLA on the 4th?
Yes over land, watch near Panama JP that area is needs to really be watched, Jedkins, I wonder how the models will now handle the invest considering its on land.
Im not a met..even though I stayed in a FEMA trailer last night. SO ..IM sticking with the Official word as always. Im a hobbyist,not a met.
If the low is the dark spot on the GOM water vapor image, then, yes, it is basically centered over Lake Okechobee...
Well at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we got not a drop of rain yesterday as i figured. Today seems a bit more promising, but i still think alot less than the 80% chance the NWS predicts...i say 30% for central Florida. With all that juicy air around it seems like a no brainer....but we are in bazzaro world or something..things are just not right!
An invest can be declared ..as needed.The potential advises the invest sometimes...not location. Ive seen invest declared over land..even as they emerging off Africa.This invest is warranted.It exist because it meets the criteria.
It is also expected to emerge back over the gulf stream.
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 1:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

Yes over land, watch near Panama JP that area is needs to really be watched, Jedkins, I wonder how the models will now handle the invest considering its on land.



Probably very crappy. They've already performed like crap as usual as to what will happen. GFS has done the best so far, the other models esspecially the NAMM have been way off.


We should still see real nice rains forming with the daytime heating for us in central Florida. Just not quite as much as we possibly could, theres potential for amazing amounts, but this low is withholding us from reaching our real potential out of this airmass. Keeping it mostly off the east coast.


I wonder if they think that as the low moves to the East it and the convection does not move that the low will move right under the convection and then strengthen I think that this has the potential to affect the Carolinas or Bermuda. Also because this is over land some convection will fire due to daytime heating and then it will move over water and have another increase in convection overnight.

Don't write it off in the first half hour of it becoming an invest if no convection forms by Saturday morning then you can write it off. with this season do not be surprised if it does form
StormW I wish I had those type of connections!!LOL, It looks like slowly the Navy website is getting some better shots of the invest as time goes on too.
Posted By: Boatofacar at 1:16 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

Well at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we got not a drop of rain yesterday as i figured. Today seems a bit more promising, but i still think alot less than the 80% chance the NWS predicts...i say 30% for central Florida. With all that juicy air around it seems like a no brainer....but we are in bazzaro world or something..things are just not right!



Just cause your house didn't really get that much doesn't mean others haven't. Coverage of activity yesterday and the day before was about on target in most areas. But remember. Rain chance isn't 100% most of us got at least a quick thunderstorm yesterday. But not everyone.


I know how it feels, was in a doghnut here yesterday, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches alll round me less then 2 miles away. Yet only 0.02 feel here. Pretty lame.

Got a real good storm wednesday actually, just was a bit unlucky yesterday.
Question; If an invest is over land, can they dispence with the costs of flights (if it event gets that far) and just do it by boat and car? (Bass boats in the case of Lake Okechobee)...Just a thought....
I agree with Nash28 and thundercloud totally. Once normal florida daytime comes into play and some storms start firing I think it will look a little better organized. Plus if it holds and gets into that gulf stream you never know what will happen.
As the post before says..a blip..then outta to sea,,the GFSx shows..Link
Thanks

How often does the satellite update on Navy site I am using Link This one (10 min Page) so check soon
Only road this one has,,
Posted By: BrandonC at 1:23 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

I agree with Nash28 and thundercloud totally. Once normal florida daytime comes into play and some storms start firing I think it will look a little better organized. Plus if it holds and gets into that gulf stream you never know what will happen




I agree with that, it will be much easier to define the circulation center once convection rapidly develops with daytime heating.


I expect this to remain staionary untill the trough approaches sunday into monday. Untill then Expect a stuck low with some pots seeing locally very high rain amounts. Otherwise a general 1 to 2 inches for quite a few of us.
Interesting weather story here...Link
It is sort of on Floater 4 not on purpose but there.
Jedkins..yes i understand that not everyone will get rain when the chances for an area are 60%, like yesterday,and just cause theres no rain at my house doesnt mean there no rain around, but the radar told the story...only a few fast moving showers over the whole of Lake County...accumulation with these were a trace..and Lake County is huge. Since Barry the most precip ive seen in a 1/2 inch and that was last week during a seabreeze storm. Ive been here a long time and this is one of the longest dry spells this area has seen..trust me i want it to rain...it just wont:)
New blog.
WPBHurricane05
Did you ever get any answer on your question
"don't think this can be good if the CMC is correct. It looks like is the Canadian High comes down to ridge with the B/A High. Isn't that the situation we had in 2004?
Just Wondering....