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India's 2nd Deadliest Heat Wave in History Ends as the Monsoon Arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:38 PM GMT on June 08, 2015

The monsoon has arrived in India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the monsoon arrived on Friday, June 5 at the southern tip of the country--four days later than the usual June 1 arrival. Although the monsoonal rains have not yet reached the province hardest hit by the heat wave--Andhra Prahesh in Southeast India--the atmospheric circulation associated with the monsoon has caused temperatures to drop significantly in this region in recent days, ending the heat wave. India's deadly May 2015 heat wave claimed approximately 2,500 lives, ranking as the second deadliest heat wave in India's recorded history--and the fifth deadliest in world history. According to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, India's only deadlier heat wave was in 1998, when 2,541 died. Below is the list of top ten deadliest heat waves in world history as compiled by EM-DAT (which uses direct deaths for their statistics, and not excess mortality):

The 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 2,500
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) India, 2003: 1,210
9) India, 2002: 1,030
9) Greece and Turkey, 1987: 1,030


Figure 1. Temperatures in Machilipatnam, Andhra Prahesh, India from May 14 - June 8, 2015 show that the heat wave peaked between May 22 - May 26, with high temperatures rising as high as 118°F (47.8°C.)

Death toll from the 2015 India heat wave questioned
As I discussed in more detail in my May 29 post on the heat wave, death tolls from heat waves are very difficult to estimate, since excess heat is typically just one factor contributing to a death. For example, the U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) lists the total direct deaths from the U.S. heat wave of 1980 at 1,260, but estimates that the combined direct and indirect deaths (i.e., excess mortality) due to heat stress was 10,000. According to an article in The Indian Express, the death toll from this year's heat wave in India may be much lower than 2,500. Of the 1,636 heat wave deaths reported between May 15 and May 30 in the hardest-hit province of Andhra Pradesh, only 511 were certified to have been caused by heat; the number of reported heat deaths soared when officials offered monetary compensation to relatives of heat victims. "The number of deaths being reported to mandal officers, Andhra Disaster Management Authority officials say, almost doubled after Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu announced ex-gratia of Rs 1 lakh to the kin of each person who dies in the heat wave," The Indian Express reported. However, even if the number of deaths in the heat wave were 1,000 less than officially reported, it still would rank as the second deadliest in India's history, and seventh deadliest in world history.


Figure 2. Progress of the monsoon towards India as of June 8, 2015 (green line) has lagged by about 4 - 9 days compared to its usual pace. The province hardest hit by this year's heat wave, Andhra Prahesh (shaded in yellow), should see the monsoon move through late this week and early next week. The province recorded 1,735 heat deaths as of June 3, 2015. Image credit: India Meteorological Department .

A deficient monsoon predicted
Although the heat wave of 2015 has ended, India's weather troubles are not over this year. The problem: the atmospheric circulation patterns brought on by an El Niño event usually cause much reduced monsoon rains. The current moderate El Niño event is forecast to intensify this summer, and this is likely to cause a significant reduction in monsoon rainfall over India. IMD is forecasting only a 7% chance of near-average rains during the 2015 summer monsoon period, and a 93% chance of below average or well below average rains. IMD's best estimate is that 12% less rain than usual fall, which would cause severe stress on agriculture and the power grid, which relies heavily on hydroelectric power. However, a 12% reduction in rains would not rank in the top five for worst monsoons on record. The five worst Indian monsoons for rainfall deficit were:

1) 1877, -33%
2) 1899, -29%
3) 1918, -25%
4) 1972, -24%
5) 2009, -22%

Climate change and India
This year's deadly heat wave in India was made much more probable by the fact that Earth is experiencing its hottest temperatures on record--the past twelve months were the warmest twelve-month period in recorded history, and so was the January - April 2015 period. According to the India Meteorological Department, a warming climate increased heat waves in India by a third between 1961 to 2010. As the planet continues to warm due to human-caused global warming, heat waves will become more frequent and more intense, and heat-related deaths will soar unless we take strong measures to adapt. An April 2015 paper published in Regional Environmental Change, Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality, warned that "heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century." Perhaps a bigger concern for India with climate change is drought, though. Many climate models show that climate change might increase the average rainfall in India from the monsoon, but when dry years occur, the hotter temperatures accompanying the dry years will drive much more intense droughts capable of causing significant challenges to growing food in India.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa as seen from the International Space Station at 3 pm EDT Sunday June 7, 2015. At the time, the storm had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: Terry Virts.

Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa forms in the Arabian Sea
The ocean regions surrounding India have two tropical cyclone seasons, one from May to early June before the monsoon arrives, and one beginning in late October after the monsoon departs. During the June - October peak of the monsoon season, the monsoon dominates the atmospheric circulation in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, and only rarely allows a tropical cyclone to form. The only tropical cyclone so far this year in the North Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Ashobaa, formed on Sunday just north of the advancing monsoon in the waters of the Arabian Sea to the west of India. Ashobaa is predicted to attain Category 1 strength before hitting cooler water and dryer air this weekend, which should weaken it to a tropical storm.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

FLZ073-075-081915-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
228 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE AND
NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

* AT 227 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MONROE STATION. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH
THIS STORM. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER
IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORTYMILE BEND...LOOP ROAD EE CENTER...SHARK VALLEY OBS TOWER AND
WILDERNESS WATERWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO STREET FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Thank You Dr. for the Stats on India and some relief for them from an albeit moderate monsoon period due to El Nino.............A little blub from last week on the issue of the so called "warming pause".................Interesting information considering the stats you posted on the recent top five heat records:

http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2015/06/much-t outed-global-warming-pause-never-happened

Creating a single, self-consistent, long-term record of sea surface temperature (SST) has proven especially tricky. For much of the past 2 centuries, ocean temperatures were measured from ships, by means of a bucket thrown over the side. Different fleets used different measurement techniques and, over time, various types of buckets—first wooden ones, then specially designed canvas ones. Eventually, buckets gave way to ship engine intake measurements, taken when water was brought in to cool the machinery. And by the end of the 20th century, far more accurate buoy measurements took over. Each technique required different corrections.

Another challenge was incorporating land-based readings from thousands of new measurement stations in regions that have long had scant coverage, particularly Asia, South America, and Africa. New data from these regions have been amassed over the past 5 years as part of the International Surface Temperature Initiative, which released its first report just last year.

In their paper, Karl's team sums up the combined effect of additional land temperature stations, corrected commercial ship temperature data, and corrected ship-to-buoy calibrations. The group estimates that the world warmed at a rate of 0.086°C per decade between 1998 and 2012—more than twice the IPCC's estimate of about 0.039°C per decade. The new estimate, the researchers note, is much closer to the rate of 0.113°C per decade estimated for 1950 to 1999. And for the period from 2000 to 2014, the new analysis suggests a warming rate of 0.116°C per decade—slightly higher than the 20th century rate. “What you see is that the slowdown just goes away,” Karl says.

And that's without including the elephant in the room: Arctic warming. A 2014 paper in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society highlighted how the scarcity of temperature data from the Arctic, which is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, has produced a significant “cool” bias in the global trends, especially since 1997.

IF 94 can slip into the Yucatan, no real mountains to break it up,mostly flat jungle.................
18Z data for 94E is in
system now moving NW

models shifted N and E


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
WESTERN MARYLAND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
WESTERN VIRGINIA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN WV INTO
EASTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF ELKINS WEST VIRGINIA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BRISTOL TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...WW 275...WW 276...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...HART
yes they sure have alright........................................... .................
Spelling error. It's Pradesh. (See, we do read the blogs)
it has increased even more



Moisture from decaying TS Blanca is forecast to be entrained into an upper low off the California coast, bringing with it a good shot at some rainy t-storms over the Sierra and Coast Ranges starting tomorrow.
we need to watch this one for sure.............................................. ................
Quoting 8. LargoFl:




as stated few days ago
slowly getting better
Riverside (KRAL):
101F
Heat Index: 96F
Humidity: 12%
Dew Point: 39F
Wind (mph): VB 5
Pressure: 29.83"
Visibility: 10 mi

97.6F at my place (other side of river)
I just hope it leaves Texas alone. those folks need time to recover and dry off.
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:



as stated few days ago
slowly getting better
yes it is
Heavy rain here in Altamonte Springs. This is the cell in the pic below.

Quoting 1. LargoFl:


Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:



as stated few days ago
slowly getting better
Quoting 20. LargoFl:

yes it is


lol look at it CaribBoy would be happy look at his area
Under just a 20% chance of rain, we are under a stationary storm cell right now getting heavy rain, will definitely end up with between 0.5-1.0" out of this here in Winter Park, I am stoked! It is finally our turn. We did get 0.8" four days ago with that line that moved across the whole area. We also have high rain chances tomorrow and Wednesday. So happy to see the rain.
Quoting 25. HurrMichaelOrl:

Under just a 20% chance of rain, we are under a stationary storm cell right now getting heavy rain, will definitely end up with between 0.5-1.0" out of this here in Winter Park, I am stoked! It is finally our turn. We did get 0.8" four days ago with that line that moved across the whole area. We also have high rain chances tomorrow and Wednesday. So happy to see the rain.


So far 5.41"for June @ my house over by Wekiva. 2.07" of that came last Friday Evening with a severe thunderstorm that brought down some trees/limbs in the area. Also don't be surprised if you end up with more than a 1" maybe 2".
Up to almost 1.5" here in Winter Park.
Thank you,Dr. Masters.
Quoting 19. LargoFl:

I just hope it leaves Texas alone. those folks need time to recover and dry off.


Already need rain here, ground drying up, I kid you not
94e continues to consolidate nicely per the last few sat frames this afternoon:

I love the tropical downpours we get in Florida. Late last week we had a downpour drop 1.5" of rain in about 15 minutes! This was after almost a month without rain, it was very welcome rain. Since then we've been getting brief showers just about every day.
Quoting 29. RitaEvac:



Already need rain here, ground drying up, I kid you not
gee Rita..well 12Z GFS has the LOW clse to the Texas coast maybe you'll get more rain then...
Quoting 27. HurrMichaelOrl:

Up to almost 1.5" here in Winter Park.


Just saw a big crash of lightning over by your direction. Had a tropical loud boom with it too.
Quoting 31. 69Viking:

I love the tropical downpours we get in Florida. Late last week we had a downpour drop 1.5" of rain in about 15 minutes! This was after almost a month without rain, it was very welcome rain. Since then we've been getting brief showers just about every day.


Only 1 day of rain at my location in May. It was the driest May I've seen in a long time then June came and we have really made up the difference. Also had 2 different cases of severe storms that came thru and produced some damage.
Quoting 30. weathermanwannabe:

94e continues to consolidate nicely per the last few sat frames this afternoon:




still big broad and elongated
still got a good bit of work to do
it is getting better but it needs some more work
Reanalysis is complete for the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm. Originally thought to have made landfall in Florida as a tropical storm, reanalysis has found that it was only an area of low pressure at that point and didn't form until emerging off the East Coast of the United States. As a result, Tropical Storm Ana early last month is now the earliest tropical cyclone in recorded history to move ashore the United States.

Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Reanalysis is complete for the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm. Originally thought to have made landfall in Florida as a tropical storm, reanalysis has found that it was only an area of low pressure at that point and didn't form until emerging off the East Coast of the United States. As a result, Tropical Storm Ana early last month is now the earliest tropical cyclone in recorded history to move ashore the United States.


Go ANA!!
Thanks Dr M. My heart goes out to the people of India. :(
Looks like 94E is getting going

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THE CHANGE WILL COME BY MID WEEK WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN A BUILDING ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST...
AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA TO THE WEST IN THE PACIFIC WATERS
OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ALREADY
ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 8.5N93W AND THE LATEST
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A MEDIUM
CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG SE FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU INTO
FRI. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF TUE NIGHT INTO WED ALSO ENHANCING
WINDS AND SEAS THERE.
Quoting 29. RitaEvac:



Already need rain here, ground drying up, I kid you not


Ugh! Still a little soggy here. Rivers don't need anymore for sure.



Quoting 29. RitaEvac:



Already need rain here, ground drying up, I kid you not


You are not kidding. 2 days ago the ground was saturated enough that it was holding water at the surface. Today I am starting to see cracks form in the ground. The plants must be taking in a big gulp to save for later? They must remember 2011.
Quoting 24. Grothar:




It looks like you are playing a weird version of Tetris. :)

Strong outflow from decaying TD Blanca can be seen rolling over the coastal marine layer off the California coast.
The National Weather Service has extended Tornado Watch 276 to include the following areas until 8 pm EDT this evening the District of Columbia in Maryland this Watch includes 10 counties in central Maryland Anne Arundel Howard Montgomery Prince Georges in north central Maryland Carroll Frederick in northern Maryland Baltimore Baltimore City Harford in Southern Maryland Charles in Virginia This Watch Includes 6 counties in Central Virginia King George Spotsylvania in Northern Virginia Arlington Fairfax Prince William Stafford in Virginia This Watch Includes 4 Independent cities in central Virginia City of Fredericksburg in Northern Virginia City of Alexandria City of Fairfax City of Manassas this includes the cities of: Aberdeen, Annapolis, Arlington. Arnold, Aspen Hill, Ballenger Creek, Baltimore, Bel Air. Bethesda, Bowie, Camp Springs, Catonsville, Chantilly. Clinton, College Park, Columbia, Dahlgren, Dundalk. Edgewood, Eldersburg, Ellicott City, Essex, Fallston. Falmouth, Frederick, Fredericksburg, Gaithersburg. Germantown, Glen Burnie, Greenbelt, Havre de Grace. Joppatowne, Laurel, Manassas, Mclean, Odenton, Parkville. Pikesville, Potomac, Randallstown, Reston, Rockville. Severn, Severna Park, Silver Spring, South Gate. Spotsylvania Courthouse, St. Charles, Suitland-silver Hill. Towson, Waldorf, Washington, Westminster and Woodbridge.
While the MJO phase may be waning down by Central America, lots of convective activity down there at the moment on both sides of the ithmus:





Quoting 43. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You are not kidding. 2 days ago the ground was saturated enough that it was holding water at the surface. Today I am starting to see cracks form in the ground. The plants must be taking in a big gulp to save for later? They must remember 2011.


Lol. They just might. :) Don't know if y'all will get this over there. Started back up here. After those nice days of low dew points.

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE LINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO ST MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STORMS ARE
DRIFTING TO THE NORTH.
i this want too make sure you all under staned this


Yes, Atlantic hurricanes can move across Central America into the Pacific, and vice-versa. This happened in July 1996 when Atlantic Hurricane Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Douglas when it moved into the Northeast Pacific Ocean. In 1989, Cosme in the Pacific became Allison in the Atlantic. The rule was that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin, then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. But that is no longer the case. Now, the National Hurricane Center says that if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. However, if the tropical cyclone dissipates and if there is not an identifiable circulation remaining as it moves over Central America, and if it reforms when it gets into another ocean basin, the Hurricane Center will give the storm a new name
Quoting 48. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. They just might. :) Don't know if y'all will get this over there. Started back up here. After those nice days of low dew points.

.NOW...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE LINE THIS AFTERNOON FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO ST MARY PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STORMS ARE
DRIFTING TO THE NORTH.


We may get some rain later in the week. This is likely to occur with the day time heating forming some rains in the afternoon and early evening. We just do not need anything like we had last month. You are right. The rivers would not be able to handle a repeat of last month's rains.
We ended up getting around 3" of much needed rain in Winter Park today. You have to love those stationary thunderstorms that just pop up and dump rain until they dissipate. I've noticed that the best examples of this (isolated stationary storms in the absence of widespead activity) only happen in my given location a few times a year, but when it does happen, the rain really adds up. Today was the best rain of the season by far so far and may end up being the highest daily total we get all summer.
texan.bigtime.rain.event.upcoming?
Getting hammered right now.
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Reanalysis is complete for the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm. Originally thought to have made landfall in Florida as a tropical storm, reanalysis has found that it was only an area of low pressure at that point and didn't form until emerging off the East Coast of the United States. As a result, Tropical Storm Ana early last month is now the earliest tropical cyclone in recorded history to move ashore the United States.




Hurdat has not been updated?

The cyclone is analyzed to have made landfall in southern Florida close to Cape Sable on 3 February at 0430Z at 25.5N, 81.2W as a 55 kt tropical storm.
Eric Blake@EricBlake12
Over 80% of all NMME members are calling for a strong #ElNino by the end of summer.
Here are a couple of blown forecasts:
Indian Hills, CA forecast 94, actual 101.2
Riverside, CA forecast 99, actual 104.0
It is 98.8F at my place,
might need the AC yet, 77F inside...
Short Range Models

Gonna head out for the afternoon. Will check back on 94E tomorrow. Just promise me one thing this year; no talk about a direct hit on Nola from 94E ( or it's reformed remnants), regardless of the what the early model runs depict, until we actually have a depression or tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico at least 7 days from now............. :)
Wow I just had over an inch of rain in 20 minutes and wind gusts near 20-25 mph torrential rainfall.
well if this verifies we get a TS by tomorrow evening........................................... .....
Quoting 8. LargoFl:




Favorable in the NE Caribbean and Leeward Islands lol. If it stays like this we could see another Gonzalo xD
Quoting 54. nrtiwlnvragn:



Hurdat has not been updated?

Not yet. A friend of mine is helping the NHC with reanalysis of past seasons and storms, so he gets the option to post about changes before NHC updates. He updated the track over on Wiki after reanalysis:



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA WILL SEE A BIG SURGE IN GULF MOISTURE ORIGINATING AS FAR
EAST AS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL DEFINITELY KICK OFF ADDITIONAL
RAINS AS WE REMAIN IN A SWEET SPOT BETWEEN HIGHS. RAIN DISTRIBUTION
WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON OUTFLOWS AND SEABREEZE ACTIVITY DURING THIS
INCREASINGLY WET PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME RELIEF BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT RIDGES WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. A LITTLE TOO SOON AS
WE MAY STILL SEE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK.

GET OUTDOOR WORK DONE SOON...AS LAFAYETTE RAINS HAVE ALREADY SETTLED
IN...AND TOMORROW THE REST OF LOUISIANA AND CONTINUING TO MIGRATE
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOWS SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE
OUTSIDE OF NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE YOU MAY SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE DEEP MOISTURE
AND STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO RAMP UP FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
W camp





E camp





wish we had CMC/GEM and Ensembles charts to see if they are W, E, or centre camp
Good afternoon/evening/morning everybody! I have a random question for anyone who knows the answer to this:


If there was a powerful derecho producing widespread winds of 90 to 100 mph or higher AND there were SEVERAL tornadoes along the leading edge, then what kind of severe weather watch will be issued for the affected area (PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch, PDS Tornado Watch, a regular Severe Thunderstorm Watch, or a regular Tornado Watch) and why?
Quoting 65. CaribBoy:



Favorable in the NE Caribbean and Leeward Islands lol. If it stays like this we could see another Gonzalo xD


lol I knew you would see that lol

lol Gonzalo nah not gonna happen
that favorable bit in the NE Caribbean not gonna last
but if it does then I owe you a cookie and a cold six pack
Following the WPC discussions, the models haven't been agreeing lately. I guess the advance of the ridge will affect our rains too?

IN THE EAST...ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING LARGE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DEPTH/TRACK OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WITH JUST HOW FAR WEST AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST.


GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
GUIDANCE...THE WPC FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL BLEND FOR
DAYS 3-7. THIS RESULTED IN MINIMAL CHANGES TO CONTINUITY.


*** SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ***

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT IN THE INTERIOR
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOWER HEIGHTS
INVADE THE REGION. THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD SEE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED
FROM KANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE
AND RESULTANT WIND DIRECTION. THERE IS STILL A STRONG PRECIP
SIGNAL FOR THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND AN ADVANCING MOISTURE
POOL IN THE GULF MAY AID IN MODEST RAINS FOR THE NW/N GULF COAST
THIS WEEKEND.
Blanca now down to TD TS watches and warnings discontinued
The U.S. Got More Rain This May Than Any Other Month On Record

This May was the United States’ wettest month in all 121 years of record-keeping, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

A total of 4.36 inches fell across the lower 48 states last month — 1.45 inches more than average, NOAA said Monday. Fifteen states saw precipitation that was “much above average” in May, and Oklahoma and Texas experienced their wettest month on record, with precipitation levels “more than twice the long-term average,” according to NOAA.


Link
Quoting 66. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not yet. A friend of mine is helping the NHC with reanalysis of past seasons and storms, so he gets the option to post about changes before NHC updates. He updated the track over on Wiki after reanalysis:




Best Track Committee Re-Analysis Comments for 1952 indicates no change:

After obtaining the new observations and revisiting the reanalysis, keeping the system as a tropical cyclone while crossing Florida is retained.
Quoting 74. nrtiwlnvragn:



Best Track Committee Re-Analysis Comments for 1952 indicates no change:

After obtaining the new observations and revisiting the reanalysis, keeping the system as a tropical cyclone while crossing Florida is retained.

Yeah, I'm not sure myself why they would make a change to a storm after having just reanalyzed the season, but he's at the National Hurricane Center and I'm not, lol. I'll see if I can ask him why they made the change.
Quoting 56. PedleyCA:

Here are a couple of blown forecasts:
Indian Hills, CA forecast 94, actual 101.2
Riverside, CA forecast 99, actual 104.0
It is 98.8F at my place,
might need the AC yet, 77F inside...


Only 104.9 here in the SFV at the moment.

Only.
Can bees have Alzheimer’s?

Most of the time, different factors add up to cause the disease. Bees are well known for their intelligence in mapping our routes to make it back and forth from hives to flowers, even miles away from where they are.

Results showed higher than safe aluminum amounts. Pupae, as it turns out, carries at least 13-200 ppm. Patterns of distribution of the metal have seen higher quantities in smaller pupae. Around 3 ppm of aluminum for a human body can already damage brain tissues.

“Aluminum is a known neurotoxin, affecting behavior in animal models of aluminum intoxication,” Exley said.

Also, aluminum is one of the most common industrial chemicals that is being discharged into the Earth’s environment. Actually, the metal already affected fishes, the forest, and have caused low productivity in many crop farms.

The results also indicate that the source comes from the nectar and, based from a previous study, bees don’t avoid nectar from flowers with aluminum.


Link
Quoting 66. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not yet. A friend of mine is helping the NHC with reanalysis of past seasons and storms, so he gets the option to post about changes before NHC updates. He updated the track over on Wiki after reanalysis:




I want to be a friend of your friend.
Quoting 26. StormTrackerScott:



So far 5.41"for June @ my house over by Wekiva. 2.07" of that came last Friday Evening with a severe thunderstorm that brought down some trees/limbs in the area. Also don't be surprised if you end up with more than a 1" maybe 2".


We had 0.38 on the 1st, 1.12 on the 2nd, and 1.96 yesterday and some insane lightning along with it. We are up to a nice start for June, at 3.46. We had 4.95 for May, all in the second half of the month, so we've had 8.41 in the last 3 weeks, which is a very nice and wet start for us, especially cause the 2nd half of rainy season is much busier on the West coast on average than the first half.

We've started off like July or August in the parts of the Tampa Bay area!
Quoting 75. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I'm not sure myself why they would make a change to a storm after having just reanalyzed the season, but he's at the National Hurricane Center and I'm not, lol. I'll see if I can ask him why they made the change.

He said there was still internal debate among some of the committee members even past their typical reanalysis of the season that eventually led to the change.
Quoting 76. TimSoCal:



Only 104.9 here in the SFV at the moment.

Only.


It is cooking everywhere down here.
Quoting 43. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You are not kidding. 2 days ago the ground was saturated enough that it was holding water at the surface. Today I am starting to see cracks form in the ground. The plants must be taking in a big gulp to save for later? They must remember 2011.


High heat with oppressive humidity will do that. We can get 10" in one week during the summer then get no rain for a week and everything looks burnt to a crisp.
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:


He said that was still internal debate among some of the committee members even past their typical reanalysis of the season that eventually led to the change.
Well at least it is still our only storm to develop in February.
Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:



Just saw a big crash of lightning over by your direction. Had a tropical loud boom with it too.

I heard exactly one instance of thunder during the storm today, that must be what you heard earlier.
Wow! 2C anomalies are now beginning to surface across Nino 3.4. They have already surface from Nino 3 east to Nino 1&2. Strong El-Nino beginning to show itself loud and clear now.

Quoting 68. wunderkidcayman:

W camp





E camp





wish we had CMC/GEM and Ensembles charts to see if they are W, E, or centre camp


by the looks of it CMC/GEM takes centre camp



Quoting 84. HurrMichaelOrl:


I heard exactly one instance of thunder during the storm today, that must be what you heard earlier.


Only hear thunder from that cell maybe 3 times but 1 strike was huge with many streaks going down to the ground.
Quoting 85. StormTrackerScott:

Wow! 2C anomalies are now beginning to surface across Nino 3.4. They have already surface from Nino 3 east to Nino 1&2. Strong El-Nino beginning to show itself loud and clear now.




hmm nah
and what makes you this the TAO/TRITON data is correct
I mean you kept on going on about the CDAS data being wrong
well maybe the TAO/TRITON data could be wrong

anyway not buying it
89. JRRP
Quoting 88. wunderkidcayman:



hmm nah
and what makes you this the TAO/TRITON data is correct
I mean you kept on going on about the CDAS data being wrong
well maybe the TAO/TRITON data could be wrong

anyway not buying it


Well the CDAS is down again and the TAO updates everyday without interruption.
Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:



Just saw a big crash of lightning over by your direction. Had a tropical loud boom with it too.



What is a tropical boom?
18Z NAVGEM shows 94E move further E than last run and much weaker

18Z NAVGEM show NW Carib/GOM system stronger slightly further S and E and spends less time over the NE tip of Yucatan more time over open water
Quoting 89. JRRP:




hmm interesting

Quoting 90. StormTrackerScott:



Well the CDAS is down again and the TAO updates everyday without interruption.


yeah doesn't mean data is correct hmm may even have their numbers off by 0.5-1.5 degrees

anyway whatever I ain't buying
We're about to get slammed again by a line of strong storms.Good thing I got the phone all charged up :D.
Quoting 93. wunderkidcayman:



hmm interesting



yeah doesn't mean data is correct hmm may even have their numbers off by 0.5-1.5 degrees

anyway whatever I ain't buying


Based on what?
Quoting 90. StormTrackerScott:



Well the CDAS is down again and the TAO updates everyday without interruption.



dont get him started lol
Quoting 65. CaribBoy:



Favorable in the NE Caribbean and Leeward Islands lol. If it stays like this we could see another Gonzalo xD
yes July is coming
Quoting 97. LargoFl:

yes July is coming



dos not matter if july is comeing or not if upper levels show 50 too 60kts of winds your not going too see march of any thing


this is going too be a dead season

if you want too track storms

the E PAC and W PAC will be the place too track

and that is how it will go down this season if you like it or not
well from the BOC Tex/La is the Likely track,now IF it goes more eastward into the Yucatan around cancun..florida is the Likely track......we'll see in a week......
Quoting 99. Tazmanian:




dos not matter if july is comeing or not if upper levels show 50 too 60kts of winds your not going too see march of any thing


this is going too be a dead season

if you want too track storms

the E PAC and W PAC will be the place too track

and that is how it will go down this season if you like it or not
OR any LOW that makes it into the gulf..like it or not
Quoting 95. Naga5000:



Based on what?
Don't get nervous about some mention of data being "off".
These 2 members leave the climate change issue alone...they're into their own thoughts of extreme weather.
Just leave them alone on in my opinion. And leave weather alone too while you're at it.
There's weather, and there's climate.

Quoting 99. Tazmanian:




dos not matter if july is comeing or not if upper levels show 50 too 60kts of winds your not going too see march of any thing


this is going too be a dead season

if you want too track storms

the E PAC and W PAC will be the place too track

and that is how it will go down this season if you like it or not


tell me something if this season is anything but dead what would you say
Quoting 105. CosmicEvents:

Don't get nervous about some mention of data being "off".
These 2 members leave the climate change issue alone...they're into their own thoughts of extreme weather.
Just leave them alone on in my opinion. And leave weather alone too while you're at it.
There's weather, and there's climate.




Excuse me? Nervous? Leave weather alone? I'm sorry, a commenter just accused an organization of possibly having off data by ".5 - 1.5 degrees" with no justification. The CDAS and TAO actual temperatures are almost identical, they use different base periods for anomaly calculation, and unless someone has some pretty convincing evidence to claim their numbers are "off", they should probably not throw that around without justification.

As for your other comments, I certainly have a fair amount of weather knowledge and every right to post about it if I please. So maybe heed your own advice and don't concern yourself with me, the "ignore user" button is conveniently located next to the "quote" button.Try a little to the right next time, okay?
The GFS intensifies 94E into a Category 1 hurricane before it enters the Gulf of Tehuantepec. I think this is a reasonable forecast, factoring in low to moderate shear, a sufficiently moist environment, very warm sea surface temperatures, and a somewhat broad structure. The overall setup reminds me of 2013's Hurricane Barbara, which is the easternmost landfalling hurricane on record in the East Pacific.

Quoting 69. Tornado6042008X:

Good afternoon/evening/morning everybody! I have a random question for anyone who knows the answer to this:


If there was a powerful derecho producing widespread winds of 90 to 100 mph or higher AND there were SEVERAL tornadoes along the leading edge, then what kind of severe weather watch will be issued for the affected area (PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch, PDS Tornado Watch, a regular Severe Thunderstorm Watch, or a regular Tornado Watch) and why?

The conditions producing a derecho would have warranted a severe thunderstorm watch several hours prior. Tornado parameters would also have triggered that watch. Once the event is occurring, the watches would become warnings and your situation would probably have a large swathe of severe thunderstorm warnings along with warnings for the areas in the path of tornadic circulations.
Quoting 69. Tornado6042008X:

Good afternoon/evening/morning everybody! I have a random question for anyone who knows the answer to this:


If there was a powerful derecho producing widespread winds of 90 to 100 mph or higher AND there were SEVERAL tornadoes along the leading edge, then what kind of severe weather watch will be issued for the affected area (PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch, PDS Tornado Watch, a regular Severe Thunderstorm Watch, or a regular Tornado Watch) and why?
So I assume that no one knows then?

EDIT: Whoops I didn't see you there georgevandenberghe. I knew I should have refreshed the page one more time before posting.
Quoting 51. HurrMichaelOrl:

We ended up getting around 3" of much needed rain in Winter Park today. You have to love those stationary thunderstorms that just pop up and dump rain until they dissipate. I've noticed that the best examples of this (isolated stationary storms in the absence of widespead activity) only happen in my given location a few times a year, but when it does happen, the rain really adds up. Today was the best rain of the season by far so far and may end up being the highest daily total we get all summer.


Yes I got one of these in College Park MD. 6/10/2014 4" in an hour 5" in 2.5 hours.
But this wasn't a single cell, it was a persistent thunderstorm that kept backbuilding over our area.
Quoting 102. LargoFl:

OR any LOW that makes it into the gulf..like it or not



has i saide same thing with the gulf if the wind shear is 40 too 50kt your not going too seee march of any thing comeing out of it
114. JRRP
Quoting 51. HurrMichaelOrl:

We ended up getting around 3" of much needed rain in Winter Park today. You have to love those stationary thunderstorms that just pop up and dump rain until they dissipate. I've noticed that the best examples of this (isolated stationary storms in the absence of widespead activity) only happen in my given location a few times a year, but when it does happen, the rain really adds up. Today was the best rain of the season by far so far and may end up being the highest daily total we get all summer.


Yeah it's weird how it works that way. I remember a few years back, when we were in an extremely active seabreeze pattern in August where rain chances were 70-80% for a week, and while a vast majority of the area was sick of the rain and saw substantial flooding, I was the one weird spot that got less than an inch compared to basically the entire viewing area.

Yet once the pattern ended and drier air moved in, coverage dropped to only a few isolated thunderstorms, what was crazy is I got flooding from over 5 inches of rain in about an hour and a half from a stationary isolated thunderstorm that developed right over us. We had a severe thunderstorm microburst causing damage as well, and lightning was off the charts bad. It was a very odd experience.

Being that it's early in the rainy season, I doubt that will be the highest total for the year.
Quoting 111. Tornado6042008X:

So I assume that no one knows then?

EDIT: Whoops I didn't see you there georgevandenberghe. I knew I should have refreshed the page one more time before posting.
In addition to what George wrote, a PDS is only issued with an actual warning, not a watch. I'm not certain, but I don't think a PDS is normally issued for a severe thunderstorm either, although it may be for derecho type system.
Quoting 116. sar2401:

In addition to what George wrote, a PDS is only issued with an actual warning, not a watch. I'm not certain, but I don't think a PDS is normally issued for a severe thunderstorm either, although it may be for derecho type system.
There actually have been PDS watches issued with both tornado and severe thunderstorm watches, usually only issued while there is a Day 1 high risk of severe weather.

The June 12, 2013 midwest severe weather event for example had, if I'm not mistaken, at least one PDS Tornado Watch and one PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Shear is able to be forecast how far out? Shear to be dropping in parts of the Gulf and rising in others according to shear tendency map. We're what, a week out on any of this reaching the Gulf and possibly forming. Conditionally that's just too far out to have any real information on what conditions will be then. Safe to say it's all conjecture and model watching until then?
Quoting 66. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not yet. A friend of mine is helping the NHC with reanalysis of past seasons and storms, so he gets the option to post about changes before NHC updates. He updated the track over on Wiki after reanalysis:




The lesson here is mot the Low, But where it's going, straight to the North Pole. Lows carry water, water carries heat.
The heat engine . Is working ovee time.
Quoting 108. Naga5000:



Excuse me? Nervous? Leave weather alone? I'm sorry, a commenter just accused an organization of possibly having off data by ".5 - 1.5 degrees" with no justification. The CDAS and TAO actual temperatures are almost identical, they use different base periods for anomaly calculation, and unless someone has some pretty convincing evidence to claim their numbers are "off", they should probably not throw that around without justification.
It was a reasonable question. Any time I question something, the WPC precipitation forecasts being an example, I do enough research to justify if I think there's really an issue or if it's just coming from my own memory. Memory is always tricky thing combined with thousands of weather events over time. There are some here who prefer a certain outcome and bend models and even actual data to suit that outcome. The good thing is that the calendar advances, and those "I hope it does" forecasts are usually proven wrong. I think most people here are smart enough to realize what forecasts are reasonable and which should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Quoting 117. Tornado6042008X:

There actually have been PDS watches issued with both tornado and severe thunderstorm watches, usually only issued while there is a Day 1 high risk of severe weather.

The June 12, 2013 midwest severe weather event for example had, if I'm not mistaken, at least one PDS Tornado Watch and one PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
Found this at the SPC FAQ page which answers the question. There are PDS watches but they are pretty rare.

"The "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording is used in Tornado Watches for rare situations when long-lived intense tornadoes are likely. This enhanced wording may also accompany Severe Thunderstorm Watches for widespread significant severe events, usually produced by exceptionally intense derechos. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective with no hard criteria. However, the SPC goal is to have 3 out of every 4 PDS Tornado Watches verifying with multiple intense tornadoes. PDS watches are most often issued with a High risk in Day 1 Convective Outlooks."
Quoting 118. DeepSeaRising:

Shear is able to be forecast how far out? Shear to be dropping in parts of the Gulf and rising in others according to shear tendency map. We're what, a week out on any of this reaching the Gulf and possibly forming. Conditionally that's just too far out to have any real information on what conditions will be then. Safe to say it's all conjecture and model watching until then?
One thing to remember is that the shear tendency charts are what's happened to shear over the last 24 hours, not a forecast of future shear. Just because the tendency was down over the last day does not mean the tendency will continue. Wind shear itself is just the difference between the winds at 200 mb and those at 850 mb. 200 mb winds don't change as often as 850 mb winds so you can get a better idea of wind shear in the future by looking at the 200 mb charts and looking for changes in wind up there, which is about 40,000 feet. There's wind shear that's measured and wind shear that actually affects a storm, and some of that shear (and dry air) may not become apparent until a storm runs into it. WU has a good wind shear tutorial that's worth reading.
Quoting 120. sar2401:

It was a reasonable question. Any time I question something, the WPC precipitation forecasts being an example, I do enough research to justify if I think there's really an issue or if it's just coming from my own memory. Memory is always tricky thing combined with thousands of weather events over time. There are some here who prefer a certain outcome and bend models and even actual data to suit that outcome. The good thing is that the calendar advances, and those "I hope it does" forecasts are usually proven wrong. I think most people here are smart enough to realize what forecasts are reasonable and which should be taken with a large grain of salt.


Right, certainly mistakes are made and sometimes data and reports are "off", but usually justification is given as to why you would think that. I agree most people here are smart enough to tell the difference, however, it would be nice if disagreements about the evolution of an el nino event (a perfectly reasonable thing to disagree on, mind you) didn't go down the path of "Your data is stupid! No, your data is stupid", considering it's pretty darn easy to check.
125. beell
Quoting 119. ColoradoBob1:



The lesson here is mot the Low, But where it's going, straight to the North Pole. Lows carry water, water carries heat.
The heat engine . Is working ovee time.


In 1952 the heat engine may have been working straight time.

An alternative viewpoint to the efficiency of the heat engine.

Hurricanes’ effects on ocean temperature revisited-Mixing of ocean layers by tropical cyclones may have less effect on climate than previously thought, new research reveals.
Morgan Bettex, MIT News Office
March 4, 2010

Quoting 122. sar2401:

One thing to remember is that the shear tendency charts are what's happened to shear over the last 24 hours, not a forecast of future shear. Just because the tendency was down over the last day does not mean the tendency will continue. Wind shear itself is just the difference between the winds at 200 mb and those at 850 mb. 200 mb winds don't change as often as 850 mb winds so you can get a better idea of wind shear in the future by looking at the 200 mb charts and looking for changes in wind up there, which is about 40,000 feet. There's wind shear that's measured and wind shear that actually affects a storm, and some of that shear (and dry air) may not become apparent until a storm runs into it. WU has a good wind shear tutorial that's worth reading.


Will do, that was informative too, thanks Sar. Always looked at shear tendency as what was to come. Certainly changes that perspective.
Quoting 91. K8eCane:




What is a tropical boom?
It's very loud and sounds like "Traaaboom"! It's only experienced in certain parts of the country, yours and mine not being in the tropical boom belt.
Quoting 66. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not yet. A friend of mine is helping the NHC with reanalysis of past seasons and storms, so he gets the option to post about changes before NHC updates. He updated the track over on Wiki after reanalysis:




The lesson here is mot the Low, But where it's going, straight to the North Pole. Lows carry water, water carries heat.
The heat engine . Is working over time.
Quoting 126. DeepSeaRising:



Will do, that was informative too, thanks Sar. Always looked at shear tendency as what was to come. Certainly changes that perspective.
Well, you're not the only one. I did it for years until I finally read the small print. :-) Shear changes rapidly, especially in the tropics, so eight hours can make a big difference. We can give a general outlook for shear in terms of how likely it is that a storm can form, but small scale shear over and near an existing storm is really beyond our science right now.
Is the TX/LA storm as suggested by models a crossover from the EPAC?
Quoting 130. stormpetrol:

Is the TX/LA storm as suggested by models a crossover from the EPAC?
Yes, it is. Given the upper winds and the way storms behave when they hit the Gulf of Tehuantepec, it's not unreasonable. I'd point out, however, that the strip of low lying terrain between there and the Bay of Campheche is only about 100 miles wide. Exactly where a storm makes landfall in Mexico will make a big difference, since there are high mountains on both sides of that coastal plain. Some of the early models also take the storm up the west coast of Mexico, never making it into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which is also a reasonable forecast. Suffice to say no outcome is a done deal yet.
Quoting 127. sar2401:

It's very loud and sounds like "Traaaboom"! It's only experienced in certain parts of the country, yours and mine not being in the tropical boom belt.


Thanks sar. I didnt know if i ever had heard one without knowing what i was hearing lol
Quoting 125. beell:



In 1952 the heat engine may have been working straight time.

An alternative viewpoint to the efficiency of the heat engine.

Hurricanes’ effects on ocean temperature revisited-Mixing of ocean layers by tropical cyclones may have less effect on climate than previously thought, new research reveals.
Morgan Bettex, MIT News Office
March 4, 2010


I've been waiting for the next step in research - the chicken and egg between Pacific storms and El Nino. I suspect the large and powerful storms we've had for the past year in the Pacific actually sets the conditions for an El Nino to happen rather than the other way around. Have you seen anything about this yet?

The deniers are running scared. . The Pope thing as them scared. . He steps out in 10 days. Their attack comes everyday now.

99. ColoradoBob1
1:44 AM GMT on June 09, 2015
The deniers are running scared. . The Pope thing as them scared. . He steps out in 10 days. Their attack comes everyday now.
Quoting 51. HurrMichaelOrl:

We ended up getting around 3" of much needed rain in Winter Park today. You have to love those stationary thunderstorms that just pop up and dump rain until they dissipate. I've noticed that the best examples of this (isolated stationary storms in the absence of widespead activity) only happen in my given location a few times a year, but when it does happen, the rain really adds up. Today was the best rain of the season by far so far and may end up being the highest daily total we get all summer.

Great that you got the rain Michael!! Over here in Sanford by Lake Jesup we have only had 1.38" so far for the month of June. We need the rain!!!! Send some my way!!
Quoting 132. K8eCane:



Thanks sar. I didnt know if i ever had heard one without knowing what i was hearing lol
It's doubtful that we have heard one. They normally only occur during insane lighting branch breaking severe hammering storms. We don't have any of those, just gentle garden variety storms, where children run out in the rain to pick flowers. :-)
The Pope is coning.
Quoting 138. ColoradoBob1:

The Pope is coning.


Why do i feel the need to ask so many questions tonight? I aint even gonna ask this one because i might not want to know. If it has to do with weather i am curious tho.
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

We're about to get slammed again by a line of strong storms.Good thing I got the phone all charged up :D.


Had 0.32" here but it cooled nicely.
142. beell
Quoting 133. sar2401:

I've been waiting for the next step in research - the chicken and egg between Pacific storms and El Nino. I suspect the large and powerful storms we've had for the past year in the Pacific actually sets the conditions for an El Nino to happen rather than the other way around. Have you seen anything about this yet?


No I have not, sar. With the limited spatial/temporal occurrence of hurricanes tropical systems across the huge expanse of the Pacific, it may be asking a lot of these storms. There are other larger scale forcings that seem more suited to the task of heat transport. Interesting idea though. Above my pay grade.
Quoting 130. stormpetrol:

Is the TX/LA storm as suggested by models a crossover from the EPAC?


yeah maybe

cross over from Gulf of Tehuantepec to Bay of Campheche into Gulf of Mexico or from El Salvador/Guatemala to Belize/Honduras into the Gulf of Honduras/NW Caribbean into Yucatan Peninsula and into Gulf of Mexico

the question is will it survive the land track and will it merge with something else and develop

and less of a question for now more of a question for later where would the impacts end up being

at the moment anywhere from Mex/Tx boarder to NW Florida
we will have to wait till crossover to get a better handle on this question
Quoting 143. BaltimoreBrian:




BAHAHA...yeah i googled it too
Quoting 123. Naga5000:



Right, certainly mistakes are made and sometimes data and reports are "off", but usually justification is given as to why you would think that. I agree most people here are smart enough to tell the difference, however, it would be nice if disagreements about the evolution of an el nino event (a perfectly reasonable thing to disagree on, mind you) didn't go down the path of "Your data is stupid! No, your data is stupid", considering it's pretty darn easy to check.
It's in the same category as "My dad can beat up your dad". :-) One of the very early TV mets, Dick Goddard, was kind of my mentor as a kid. He used to hold weather talks every Tuesday night at the TV station for all the local geeks, and it was the highlight of my week. He really emphasized the idea of never falling in love with a forecast. No matter how good your reasoning was today, it's likely to have changed by tomorrow. He was never afraid to come up with a different forecast that the then Weather Bureau issued, but he also carefully explained his reasoning to viewers. Some of his weather segments lasted 10 minutes or more when Cleveland was having one of its big snowstorms because he spent so much time explaining what he thought was happening and why. I've always tried to pattern my very amatuer efforts after what he did. Dick is now 84 and still forecasting weather in Cleveland. He's still quite a guy.
147. beell
Quoting 138. ColoradoBob1:

The Pope is coning.


The beell is goning.
G'night.
For me, one of the most interesting parts of this season will be just how active the W. Pacific is. It's always active, but SST's being what they are off of the Philippines; wondering if we're going to see a Haiyan redo. Statistically it would seem very very low, and for their sake I hope it's so.
Quoting 142. beell:



No I have not, sar. With the limited spatial/temporal occurrence of hurricanes across the huge expanse of the Pacific, it may be asking a lot of these storms. There are other larger scale forcings that seem more suited to the task of heat transport. Interesting idea though. Above my pay grade.
Yes, way above mine as well. The study in your link suggested this as the next step for research but I've yet to see anything on the idea. I don't think that tropical storms can cause an El Nino but I do think enough of them with enough coverage can set the right conditions for an El Nino to get started. Weak, moderate, or strong is beyond me, and the whole idea just comes from fertile mind. :-)
Quoting 143. BaltimoreBrian:


Snark. I always liked that little guy.
btw here you go
I didn't see anyone post the 18Z ones

so I will do the honors


new shade of purple dot now appearing in the GOH
Quoting 82. StormTrackerScott:



High heat with oppressive humidity will do that. We can get 10" in one week during the summer then get no rain for a week and everything looks burnt to a crisp.


The sun has been oppressive here, since it has quit raining. Just a few days after the rains end and the ground has certainly began to dry out fast. I never thought the soil moisture content, at the surface, could have changed so quickly in such a short time.
Quoting 151. wunderkidcayman:

btw here you go
I didn't see anyone post the 18Z ones

so I will do the honors


new shade of purple dot now appearing in the GOH


Quoting 148. DeepSeaRising:

For me, one of the most interesting parts of this season will be just how active the W. Pacific is. It's always active, but SST's being what they are off of the Philippines; wondering if we're going to see a Haiyan redo. Statistically it would seem very very low, and for their sake I hope it's so.


The freakish surge with the fifty foot waves atop of the surge will be something I'll never forget. The stories were just heartbreaking. The Dad who tried to save his kids when it came in and how his youngest was ripped from his grasp and how he found his daughter afterward was just hard to take. We often catastrophize our lives in the West, but we have it so good. It's easy to forget, and I'm as guilty as anyone. How many hundreds of thousands of kids have lost their parents or become permanently separated from them in Syria alone? I wish we were shocked by anything anymore. The assault over Spring break on the beach, with hundreds around in Florida is a perfect example. No one did anything. Makes one question if the will to change, to take action is really there when it comes to AGW. Lots of talk by world leaders. Last time I checked, hot air was the problem.
Quoting 136. sanflee76:


Great that you got the rain Michael!! Over here in Sanford by Lake Jesup we have only had 1.38" so far for the month of June. We need the rain!!!! Send some my way!!


Sanflee, I owe you an apology. I have not had a chance to get on the site at night, and this is the first chance I've had to post when you might see it. But a few weeks ago, I publicly stated your name and implied that you were a troll. I was wrong and I am sorry!
Had one little clump of thunderstorms go through here just before dark. They were about the only thunderstorms in south Alabama at the time, so I was lucky. Got 0.52" and few wind gusts up to 15 mph. It was a "normal" storm this time, no torrential rain, just steady rain for an hour or so. The garden and lawn look happy. After the storm went through the skies cleared immediately. After extracting Radar Dog from around my leg, I let him out to pee. My wood deck was actually steaming, one of the few times I've seen that. It's down to 72 now after a high of 96. The storms came just in time. The supposed front is still hung up in Tennessee, and it doesn't look likely that whatever's left will make it here before morning. We've had just enough rain with this all this heat to really set things going in the garden. I wonder how big tomato plants can get? I have several over six feet tall now, even though I keep pinching them back. I'm going to need a stepladder if this keeps up.
Quoting 91. K8eCane:




What is a tropical boom?


It is another one of those umbrella drinks. After you drink two you will see flashes of light and hear the boom as you hit the ground. And then you do not see or hear anything for a few hours. :) OK, it is not the typical umbrella drink.
The Pope is coning.

159. 882MB
Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:






Nice optical illusion!! I got to see what happens, pretty neat.
Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:





lol
The POPE DROPS HIS IN 10 DAYS.
The wing nuts , auto rotate
anyway I'll be back later maybe around 11:30 12:00 EST
Doesn't mean much currently, but like you suggested last night with the micro dot; filling in nicely I'd say today. Upper level winds will now have to follow suit, but trends are improving. WKC GOH may be a player down the road.
Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:




Oh no! Not THAT shade of purple! I hate that shade of purple!
OK Im lost and Jaws is on Netflix and im going to watch it for the million 347th time. Interesting to see what GOT or BOC looks like in the AM
Quoting 153. BaltimoreBrian:






Now you guys know what laser cataract surgery looks like.
Not one of you commented on my comment.

" Get ready little lady , hell is coming to breakfast."

Lone Wati
Quoting 164. sar2401:

Oh no! Not THAT shade of purple! I hate that shade of purple!


The color is yellow...
Quoting 161. ColoradoBob1:

The POPE DROPS HIS IN 10 DAYS.
The wing nuts , auto rotate


Bob I follow what your saying, but a little more context would be nice. Scott Walker is a wing nut and has auto rotated our state to Hell. But with a nice Right spin making the mass voting block oblivious to anything resembling truth. Two billion cut in public education, not including what he, they, just did to UW; NO PROBLEM. The Right feeds off of ignorance and there is more than they can eat right now nation wide. Successful programming at it's finest.
Quoting 151. wunderkidcayman:

btw here you go
I didn't see anyone post the 18Z ones

so I will do the honors


new shade of purple dot now appearing in the GOH
WOW!
Quoting 166. Grothar:



Now you guys know what laser cataract surgery looks like.


Oh....I thought that was normal...

Maybe I shouldn't be driving. :P


Enthalpy flux in 120 hours-estimated

Looking forward to this tomorrow: like our last El Nino year in 2009, we've been having a good pop up storm pattern

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
938 PM EDT Monday Jun 8 2015

Short term [tuesday through Wednesday night]...
an upper level +pv anomaly associated with a trough over the eastern
Continental U.S. Will enhance our local sea-breeze circulation and increase our
chances for showers and thunderstorms though the period,
particularly in our northwestern zones. With more moisture, forcing
and instability Tuesday (mlcape around 1000-1300 j/kg in the
afternoon) than we've been seeing the past few days, some of these
storms may become strong enough to produce downbursts with damaging
winds. Temperatures will peak in the upper 80s and low 90s and dip
into the upper 60s to around 70 at night.
CO2 levels May 2015: 403.70 ppm


Good night/morning/afternoon everyone :)
I am SO tired of the melting effect of precip coming into Atlanta...you have a super strong front that makes it or, gulf moisture flowing up and dying, or just...nothing makes it. We do get rain, but severe effects lull, forcasts change in an hour, I am sure I am preaching to the choir, but... what happened to the 5o'clk storms, the shelf clouds, green hues, tropical runoff, I mean, our weather is non-existant. Had to get that of my chest.
131. sar2401
2:05 AM GMT on June 09, 2015

Thanks , I just wasn't sure
Quoting 164. sar2401:

Oh no! Not THAT shade of purple! I hate that shade of purple!
Quoting 157. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



It is another one of those umbrella drinks. After you drink two you will see flashes of light and hear the boom as you hit the ground. And then you do not see or hear anything for a few hours. :) OK, it is not the typical umbrella drink.
This made me spit my water out a literary lol and thus waking the kids up.
Quoting 177. ATLsweather:

I am SO tired of the melting effect of precip coming into Atlanta...you have a super strong front that makes it or, gulf moisture flowing up and dying, or just...nothing makes it. We do get rain, but severe effects lull, forcasts change in an hour, I am sure I am preaching to the choir, but... what happened to the 5o'clk storms, the shelf clouds, green hues, tropical runoff, I mean, our weather is non-existant. Had to get that of my chest.


Don't worry, I've felt that way before, and just when it seems weird like that, weather patterns will change and then the classics return.
new GFS looks a whole lot like the 12z EURO. 94E exits stage left.
Quoting 174. Grothar:



Enthalpy flux in 120 hours-estimated




Still think Louisiana would take the hit if that thing went due north, leaving Texas mostly alone. Agree?
184. JRRP
hey guys I'm back up

Quoting 184. JRRP:




lol so much for falling
Don't let Sar see that!!!


Quoting 151. wunderkidcayman:

btw here you go
I didn't see anyone post the 18Z ones

so I will do the honors


new shade of purple dot now appearing in the GOH
Quoting 186. swflurker:

Don't let Sar see that!!!




I think Sar did see that
HMMMMMMMMMMMMM? I see green.

Quoting 168. Bucsboltsfan:



The color is yellow...
18Z ensembles which didn't get posted earlier





awaiting the 00Z
Quoting 179. BaltimoreBrian:


OMG! There's a terrible tropical storm headed for that house...
Quoting 187. wunderkidcayman:


I think Sar did see that
Do you remember what those same charts were showing ten days ago at this time?
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Do you remember what those same charts were showing ten days ago at this time?


no but I think I recall not as much purple
:)
Quoting 182. AtHomeInTX:

new GFS looks a whole lot like the 12z EURO. 94E exits stage left.
The 00z GFS has the low first appear in the BOC at hour 138. Up until hour 324, the low wanders the Mexican coast, never making landfall and never getting to Texas. It goes north...and then it goes south...then it goes sideways...then it heads back toward the Yucatan. At hour 324, it disappears. The 12z ECMWF keeps the storm as a weak low off the west coast of Mexico and never develops any kind of storm in the Gulf or the Caribbean. The CMC develops the storm into a 997 mb low off the west coast of Mexico at 96 hours. At 120 hours, the low makes landfall in north-central Mexico and then disappears. The amount of disagreement among the three major models remains distressingly high.
Quoting 192. wunderkidcayman:



no but I think I recall not as much purple
:)
Quite so. A good thing to remember as these NCEP models develop yet another storm that may or may not do quite what they show.
Quoting 193. sar2401:

The 00z GFS has the low first appear in the BOC at hour 138. Up until hour 324, the low wanders the Mexican coast, never making landfall and never getting to Texas. It goes north...and then it goes south...then it goes sideways...then it heads back toward the Yucatan. At hour 324, it disappears. The 12z ECMWF keeps the storm as a weak low off the west coast of Mexico and never develops any kind of storm in the Gulf or the Caribbean. The CMC develops the storm into a 997 mb low off the west coast of Mexico at 96 hours. At 120 hours, the low makes landfall in north-central Mexico and then disappears. The amount of disagreement among the three major models remains distressingly high.


Lol. I meant mainly the EPAC storm. But the models have been differing a lot not just tropically but over all. Driving the forcasters crazy from what I can tell. So I wouldn't ne surprisd if now the euro shows something else.
196. vis0

Quoting 77. ColoradoBob1:

Can bees have Alzheimer’s?

Most of the time, different factors add up to cause the disease. Bees are well known for their intelligence in mapping our routes to make it back and forth from hives to flowers, even miles away from where they are.

Results showed higher than safe aluminum amounts. Pupae, as it turns out, carries at least 13-200 ppm. Patterns of distribution of the metal have seen higher quantities in smaller pupae. Around 3 ppm of aluminum for a human body can already damage brain tissues.

“Aluminum is a known neurotoxin, affecting behavior in animal models of aluminum intoxication,” Exley said.

Also, aluminum is one of the most common industrial chemicals that is being discharged into the Earth’s environment. Actually, the metal already affected fishes, the forest, and have caused low productivity in many crop farms.

The results also indicate that the source comes from the nectar and, based from a previous study, bees don’t avoid nectar from flowers with aluminum.


Link
The weather? its at the end of this long but original comment.

i'm not a docktour though have worn a long white cotton jacket with pens in pocket protector in the jackets right pocket and spectacles half way down my nose and wrote prescriptions for Tic Tacs® but that is where my expertise ends. Therefore read the following as scific and off a mirror ...it might make more sense, but if you know anyone doing these studies pass on these crazy words.
Some might why don't i?
HOLD ME BACK SAR2401 ?
are ya nuts thats what i tried to do for 45 yrs and no one cared to reply be it with brain info and sending hundreds of pages to major medical research facilities to how to influence nature even lower co2 to WxU no one replied so i'm retired from trying to share what i thought was knowledge in 2014.

Words that are in quotes immediately followed by 2 asterisks are words i created to describe my theories. As far as i know none of these words made it into the medical journals with my meaning or anyone else's meaning(s)/descriptions

As to ColoradoBob1's post and relating it to humans or any animal/insect that ingests chemicals that alter ones blood or body's fluid to magnetic field direction directly or via a natural response in protecting its DNA "commands"::

'bout time geesh...in 1977 in a JHS science report i made as a request from my Science Lab teacher Mrs. V, as she wanted me to become a Dr. (HA!) i wrote how several "modern" metals & plastics lead to affects on how the brain transmits its "lightgate"** signals and how the catalyst to raising this problem is the many preservatives in ones body that cause a repeating brain signal realignment affect on the bloods' "magnetic properties"** therefore passes on this property to the brain and eventually distort each individuals brain s/n ratio transmissions to the point that instead of the brain having one constant carrier for each of our quasi-enclosed energy chambers/body (self (has 2 halves), soul (has 1 that rotates...like Earth's mag fields) & spirit (has 2 halves), why i state EVERYONE has at least 5 personalities and if the brain is working properly the conscience (a correct flow joining these energies) controls that by maintaining the one personality that has a conscience. NOW ADD vices or chemicals that interfere with that flow and then we had dual personalities as when those that smoke (or any vice takes over conscious decisions) and can't find that cigarette/vice and one then goes ballistics to even blame inanimate objects or worse their loved ones for any ill / problems, cause they are close by. Once neurotoxins come into the picture one begins to have more than 5 personality levels and that causes interference and some of those forms of interference can fall under Alzheimer and other brain problems within the category of Dementia. Why i state its important that those studying blood discover 1 more category yet undiscovered, it how blood has a magnetic property. If i had "A+(-)"** and you had "A+(+)"** and exchanged blood transfusions 50 yrs ago each of us might have had some memory lose as our brains would have a similar affect as if you suddenly changed the polarity of a coil leading from a closed circuit battery to a bulb...OFF., but in that the brain has more wisdom than a bulb it would have resealed that short circuiting through goose pimples, burping laughter and several other natural ways the brain releases incorrectly flowing energies, pets do this by violently shaking and separating their fur/coat/pores. Yet with the modern diet of preservatives that same blood work would have a greater chance if turning off our brain transmitters in order to save the brain from real long term damage. Like fainting when the brain over heats it prevents a deeper short circuit damage, unless your noggin hits the floor as you fainted. That recent news of "light" to help return their brain to its "normal" transmitting pattern (posted by BBrain) is like having a circuit breaker or reviving a person whom fainted by using pressure on "eagle points" on the spinal column with a specific "finger" which wakes the person up in a correct flow method. But those that are studying light effects on the brain have to add a form of sound to make the full discovery, the problem is iot has to be deep and the magnetic vibrating the speaker has to be far away from the brain, i sent BOSE an idea how to build a sound resonating chamber back in 1970s as Zenith was one of my fav companies (remember ZOOM TV,, PiP with ability to answer the phone through the TV THAT WAS 1971!!) and that chamber used a 2:1 principal as i state in my Galacsics theories of .666 to .333 and the sound amplified the air via the sound to reinforce the sound...i wonder if that's how they invented those BOSE speakers. Now here is what is important by studying those speakers one can learn how to focus low HZ sounds WITH CARE to correct certain mental illness and also include the intake of certain natural healthy oils its good for recovering memory. . Why its important one have some of ones own blood stored and refresh that amount on a yearly bases as ones own blood mag property is being thrown off kilt by the many preservatives and chemicals being added to food that is already healthy if eaten fresh (though fresh is a misnomer once it goes beyond 3 days specially meat, ask a lion how long he stores that deer he just caught before he eats it, the reply should be BURP ROAR, even a vulture understands eat it as soon as you find it. (clean up in aisle 66)
Hows this related to weather? If our brains are being damaged how are we expected to think BE IT with an opinion you agree with or not, its not the opinion that is important but how that opinion was developed. Was it from knowledge which is best or from being told what to think which is worst, no matter what side of the argument one is on. Its like playing any game be it chess or football if you're really into the sport you'd prefer to go through a tough match than "gimmie game" where there was no challenge. So when one sees so many people being lethargic as to whats being put into the air we all breath, one has to ask is it that the brain power needed to really think is being shorted out by all the chemicals that are around and in us.

gotta go twiddle my thumbs.


WEATHER??? Here is pt2o3 of treebreeze vid "TreeBreeze201505-15;1612" where i state what you see is my portable ml-d creating a vortex and therefore a breeze from a 90 foot diameter away from me, though mainly concentrated with 30-60 feet, its explained (or at least i call those nonsensical words an explanation) on my last active blog, within comments #103 & #104 there.
No questions please the time for that ended in 2014 after 45 years of trying to get the ml-d studied, i'm now enjoying freedom .




BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER, go tap yer barometer.
06Z BEST track data say 94E has now moved WSW and had slowed right down from 18mph to now 4mph

new charts are in 00Z

new shade of purple has expanded and now blue spot has popped up in the GOH

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
CYCLONIC STORM ASHOBAA (ARB01-2015)
8:30 AM IST June 9 2015
=================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm (ASHOBAA) over east central Arabian Sea moved slowly in north northwestward direction during past 12 hours and lays centered over east central and adjoining northwest & west central Arabian Sea near 20.0N 65.0E, about 830 km west of Mumbai, 570 km west southwest of Veraval, 640 km east southeast of Sur, Oman and 800 km east southeast of Muscat, Oman.

The system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm, move initially northwestwards during next 24 hours and west northwestwards thereafter. It would cross Oman coast as a cyclonic storm between Sur and Mina Sultan Qaboos and Muscat, Oman near 23.0N 59.0E around Thursday night.

Forecast and Intensity
=================
9 HRS: 20.4N 64.1E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 21.1N 63.2E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 22.0N 61.3E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 22.7N 59.3E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090515
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 8 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Depression Blanca, located over the southern portion of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has
changed little in organization. However, environmental conditions
remain conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next
two to three days while the this system moves slowly northwestward
or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
Enough with the different shades of purple.
That's a 4% probability blue doom pixel near Roatan..
Thoughts and prayers to whomever, but it's a wave heading West of West that's might connect with the Pacific cyclone to be on the lee side of the Yucatan. Should mean much less diffluence in the SW central Caribbean...give you guys a chance in S-SE Cuba, NW Jamaica, and adjacent waters time to clean up and store all the water in cisterns.
Models don't think 94 will strengthen as much as they did yesterday................
Quoting 114. JRRP:


This also caught my eye. Pretty healthy looking for early June .... :o)

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 34W
FROM 2N-14N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N54W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY
SHOWS THE WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 16N TO
ACROSS PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SW
CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ENHANCING THE
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 80W-
84W.
Quoting 193. sar2401:

The 00z GFS has the low first appear in the BOC at hour 138. Up until hour 324, the low wanders the Mexican coast, never making landfall and never getting to Texas. It goes north...and then it goes south...then it goes sideways...then it heads back toward the Yucatan. At hour 324, it disappears. The 12z ECMWF keeps the storm as a weak low off the west coast of Mexico and never develops any kind of storm in the Gulf or the Caribbean. The CMC develops the storm into a 997 mb low off the west coast of Mexico at 96 hours. At 120 hours, the low makes landfall in north-central Mexico and then disappears. The amount of disagreement among the three major models remains distressingly high.
Not to sound pompous, but I can do a better job saying folks where and when that low that is forecast to be in the gulf if it does at all.
persistant.trough.n.w.carib.
Quoting 196. vis0:


The weather? its at the end of this long but original comment.

i'm not a docktour though have worn a long white cotton jacket with pens in pocket protector in the jackets right pocket and spectacles half way down my nose and wrote prescriptions for Tic Tacs® but that is where my expertise ends. Therefore read the following as scific and off a mirror ...it might make more sense, but if you know anyone doing these studies pass on these crazy words.
Some might why don't i?
HOLD ME BACK SAR2401 ?
are ya nuts thats what i tried to do for 45 yrs and no one cared to reply be it with brain info and sending hundreds of pages to major medical research facilities to how to influence nature even lower co2 to WxU no one replied so i'm retired from trying to share what i thought was knowledge in 2014.

Words that are in quotes immediately followed by 2 asterisks are words i created to describe my theories. As far as i know none of these words made it into the medical journals with my meaning or anyone else's meaning(s)/descriptions

As to ColoradoBob1's post and relating it to humans or any animal/insect that ingests chemicals that alter ones blood or body's fluid to magnetic field direction directly or via a natural response in protecting its DNA "commands"::

'bout time geesh...in 1977 in a JHS science report i made as a request from my Science Lab teacher Mrs. V, as she wanted me to become a Dr. (HA!) i wrote how several "modern" metals & plastics lead to affects on how the brain transmits its "lightgate"** signals and how the catalyst to raising this problem is the many preservatives in ones body that cause a repeating brain signal realignment affect on the bloods' "magnetic properties"** therefore passes on this property to the brain and eventually distort each individuals brain s/n ratio transmissions to the point that instead of the brain having one constant carrier for each of our quasi-enclosed energy chambers/body (self (has 2 halves), soul (has 1 that rotates...like Earth's mag fields) & spirit (has 2 halves), why i state EVERYONE has at least 5 personalities and if the brain is working properly the conscience (a correct flow joining these energies) controls that by maintaining the one personality that has a conscience. NOW ADD vices or chemicals that interfere with that flow and then we had dual personalities as when those that smoke (or any vice takes over conscious decisions) and can't find that cigarette/vice and one then goes ballistics to even blame inanimate objects or worse their loved ones for any ill / problems, cause they are close by. Once neurotoxins come into the picture one begins to have more than 5 personality levels and that causes interference and some of those forms of interference can fall under Alzheimer and other brain problems within the category of Dementia. Why i state its important that those studying blood discover 1 more category yet undiscovered, it how blood has a magnetic property. If i had "A+(-)"** and you had "A+(+)"** and exchanged blood transfusions 50 yrs ago each of us might have had some memory lose as our brains would have a similar affect as if you suddenly changed the polarity of a coil leading from a closed circuit battery to a bulb...OFF., but in that the brain has more wisdom than a bulb it would have resealed that short circuiting through goose pimples, burping laughter and several other natural ways the brain releases incorrectly flowing energies, pets do this by violently shaking and separating their fur/coat/pores. Yet with the modern diet of preservatives that same blood work would have a greater chance if turning off our brain transmitters in order to save the brain from real long term damage. Like fainting when the brain over heats it prevents a deeper short circuit damage, unless your noggin hits the floor as you fainted. That recent news of "light" to help return their brain to its "normal" transmitting pattern (posted by BBrain) is like having a circuit breaker or reviving a person whom fainted by using pressure on "eagle points" on the spinal column with a specific "finger" which wakes the person up in a correct flow method. But those that are studying light effects on the brain have to add a form of sound to make the full discovery, the problem is iot has to be deep and the magnetic vibrating the speaker has to be far away from the brain, i sent BOSE an idea how to build a sound resonating chamber back in 1970s as Zenith was one of my fav companies (remember ZOOM TV,, PiP with ability to answer the phone through the TV THAT WAS 1971!!) and that chamber used a 2:1 principal as i state in my Galacsics theories of .666 to .333 and the sound amplified the air via the sound to reinforce the sound...i wonder if that's how they invented those BOSE speakers. Now here is what is important by studying those speakers one can learn how to focus low HZ sounds WITH CARE to correct certain mental illness and also include the intake of certain natural healthy oils its good for recovering memory. . Why its important one have some of ones own blood stored and refresh that amount on a yearly bases as ones own blood mag property is being thrown off kilt by the many preservatives and chemicals being added to food that is already healthy if eaten fresh (though fresh is a misnomer once it goes beyond 3 days specially meat, ask a lion how long he stores that deer he just caught before he eats it, the reply should be BURP ROAR, even a vulture understands eat it as soon as you find it. (clean up in aisle 66)
Hows this related to weather? If our brains are being damaged how are we expected to think BE IT with an opinion you agree with or not, its not the opinion that is important but how that opinion was developed. Was it from knowledge which is best or from being told what to think which is worst, no matter what side of the argument one is on. Its like playing any game be it chess or football if you're really into the sport you'd prefer to go through a tough match than "gimmie game" where there was no challenge. So when one sees so many people being lethargic as to whats being put into the air we all breath, one has to ask is it that the brain power needed to really think is being shorted out by all the chemicals that are around and in us.

gotta go twiddle my thumbs.


WEATHER??? Here is pt2o3 of treebreeze vid "TreeBreeze201505-15;1612" where i state what you see is my portable ml-d creating a vortex and therefore a breeze from a 90 foot diameter away from me, though mainly concentrated with 30-60 feet, its explained (or at least i call those nonsensical words an explanation) on my last active blog, within comments #103 & #104 there.
No questions please the time for that ended in 2014 after 45 years of trying to get the ml-d studied, i'm now enjoying freedom .




BACK TO OBSERVING WEATHER, go tap yer barometer.

This is a good post about Alzheimers Vis..I call it the Devils Disease. It not only hurts and destroys the person afflicted, but the family goes through suffering that cannot be put into words. My father has the beginning stages...it is heart breaking.
Quoting 212. islander101010:

persistant.trough.n.w.carib.
Indeed..Hope that doesnt stay around through the season.
Quoting 209. tampabaymatt:


chance of waterspouts on both coasts today matt..there was some down by ft Lauderdale yesterday.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
W pac should be alive again in about 10 days once the MJO passes to the northeast pacific, SST in the w pac are exceptionally juicy right now...This is going to be one hell of a typhoon season...the 10 year anniversary for the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record will likely be celebrated by the most active W pacific season on record and the most active season for the whole northern pacific.
Looks like I'm very behind on the blogs! Great blog post, Dr. Masters.
Quoting 146. sar2401:

It's in the same category as "My dad can beat up your dad". :-) One of the very early TV mets, Dick Goddard, was kind of my mentor as a kid. He used to hold weather talks every Tuesday night at the TV station for all the local geeks, and it was the highlight of my week. He really emphasized the idea of never falling in love with a forecast. No matter how good your reasoning was today, it's likely to have changed by tomorrow. He was never afraid to come up with a different forecast that the then Weather Bureau issued, but he also carefully explained his reasoning to viewers. Some of his weather segments lasted 10 minutes or more when Cleveland was having one of its big snowstorms because he spent so much time explaining what he thought was happening and why. I've always tried to pattern my very amatuer efforts after what he did. Dick is now 84 and still forecasting weather in Cleveland. He's still quite a guy.


The last two sentences bring out a point about our field that is not appreciated. Many meteorologists do not throw in the towel at retirement age.. they are fulfilled in their jobs and keep working for some or many years after. As a computer professional (and meteorologist) I see the contrast with tech jobs where people tend to burn out and retire early. In my own career the meteorologist experience seems to have dominated and I have many interesting problems left to solve and no plans to retire.