WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

India Braces for Extremely Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on October 11, 2013

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Phailin is closing in on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours. After reaching peak intensity near 8 pm EDT Thursday, Phailin--whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai--began an eyewall replacement cycle. The eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger-diameter eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, and satellite estimates of Phailin's central pressure increased from 910 mb to 934 mb during the eyewall replacement cycle, from 04 - 11 UTC Friday. However, satellite images show that Phailin has completed its eyewall replacement cycle and is now re-intensifying, with the cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall expanding and cooling, as updrafts in the eyewall grow stronger and push the clouds higher into the atmosphere. The latest satellite estimate of Phailin's central pressure had dropped to 920 mb as of 13 UTC (9 am EDT) on Friday, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center upped Phailin's intensity to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in their 11 am EDT Friday advisory. Radar out of Visakhapanam, India shows that heavy rains from the outer bands of Phailin are already affecting the coast, and these bands were bringing rainfall rates of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave data from 10:55 UTC Friday. Phailin is over ocean waters that have warmed since Thursday, and are now 29 - 30°C. These warm waters extend to a lesser depth than before, and ocean heat content has dropped to a moderate 20 - 40 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 04:30 UTC on October 11, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Phailin
Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of at least 19' (5.9 meters) onto the coast (Kalsi et al., 2004.) The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday between 09 - 15 UTC about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that a storm surge of up to 3 meters (ten feet) will hit along a swath a coast to the right of where the center makes landfall. This region of the coast is not as low-lying, which should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.". Given Phailin's recent recovery from its eyewall replacement cycle and subsequent re-intensification, I expect that Phailin will hit the coast as a Category 4 storm with a strength very similar to that of the 1999 Odisha Cyclone.


Figure 2. Elevation of the Odisha region of India, with the track of the 1999 Odisha cyclone and forecast track of Phailin overlaid. Phailin is predicted to hit a region of the coast about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The coast is not as low-lying to the southwest, which should result in a lower storm surge death toll. The greatest storm surge occurs along the coast to the right of where the center crosses. Image credit: http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing very destructive flooding; the 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model (Figure 3) calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone killed more than 2,000 people in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.


Figure 3. The 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC Hurricane Forecast Project supported by Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).

India's tropical cyclone history
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Kalsi, S.R., N. Jayanthi N, and S.K. Roy Bhowmik, 2004, "A Review of Different Storm Surge Models and Estimated Storm Surge Height in Respect of Orissa Supercyclonic Storm of 29 October, 1999," New Delhi: Indian Meteorological Department.

Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.

Das, S., and J.R. Vincent, 2009, "Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone", Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 May 5; 106(18): 7357–7360. Published online 2009 April 20. doi:  10.1073/pnas.0810440106

Little change to 98L in the Eastern Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms with a substantial amount of spin. The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next five days. The UKMET model shows some weak development of 98L by early next week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 40%, and 5-day odds of 40%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Friday morning runs of the GFS and European models.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 11, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, we have another very dangerous tropical cyclone--Category 3 Typhoon Nari, which is bearing down on the main Philippine island of Luzon. Nari will make landfall near 16 UTC (noon EDT), bringing the usual hazards of destructive winds, dangerous storm surge, and torrential rains capable of causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The core of the storm will pass about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, Passage over Luzon is expected to weaken Nari to a Category 1 storm by the time it emerges into the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam. Nari will then have a little over two days to re-intensify before making a second landfall in Vietnam around 18 UTC on Monday.


Video 1. The aftermath of the 1999 cyclone (and rising sea levels). See also this video on the ‪IDRF rehabilitation after the 1999 Odisha Supercyclone‬. Thanks to wunderground member barbamz for posting these links in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Jeff Masters... I am praying for these people to make it through safely.

From the last blog:

Beautiful storm, terrible consequences. :/

Current Wind Speed 135 knots / 155 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 140 knots / 161 MPH at October 11, 2013 2:00pm



Rain chances going skyward for TX this weekend, lets see what she has in the trunk
Thanks Doc
Hey everyone, joining back after a healthy night of sleep and wonderful lunch... and I see that Phailin looks even more dangerous than yesterday, and it might still strengthen a bit before landfall...


Yesterday there were a lot of people, including me, voicing great concern over how amateurish the IMD is responding to this and how they seem to be severely underestimating the size and potential of this storm - I see this has not changed today - even though this obviously is a sub-920mb storm, they still have it at 940, and are predicting a 3-6ft storm surge, which is preposterous to say the least. I mean, is there no one to tell them how extremely irresponsible this is, is there no communication between the JTWC and IMD and the other stations?

And for conversation's sake, I hope Napolitano aka Captain Obvious doesn't join in again with his pointless chatter, obviously I am aware that all precautions that they could have taken are going at full steam... It just strikes me as weird that a nation of 1+ billion people cannot properly train and finance ONE SINGLE institution - not talking about preparing every village along the coast and having shelters and emergency response personnel, I'm talking about 1 building in Delhi or wherever that is properly staffed and properly equipped - something which, very apparently, India DOES NOT currently possess...
98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it several hundred miles northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by the middle of next week, according to the 00Z Friday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

I respectfully disagree. The remnants pass close to the NE Carib on the EURO and GFS.
Its Unusual for Modis to catch a storm so well

4 km Version shows the extent of the storm



Swirly over the Dakotas today. This is likely what the reason behind potential severe weather around there is coming from.

However, satellite images show that Phailin has completed its eyewall replacement cycle and is now re-intensifying, with the cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall expanding.....

Thanks Dr. A nightmare rapid intensification event as the cyclone nears landfall......Similar to Andrew's rapid and intense burst before landfall in South Florida in 92.
GFS FULL RES SIMULATED SATELLITE 36 HOURS.
Phailin makes landfall in India.

10. SLU
02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-167N-877E

We've not seen anything like this in the Atlantic in the last 1/2 decade.
Skycycle, Post #4
I read something by the IMD predicting surge of 3 meters above tide.
Quoting 4. skycycle:
Hey everyone, joining back after a healthy night of sleep and wonderful lunch... and I see that Phailin looks even more dangerous than yesterday, and it might still strengthen a bit before landfall...


Yesterday there were a lot of people, including me, voicing great concern over how amateurish the IMD is responding to this and how they seem to be severely underestimating the size and potential of this storm - I see this has not changed today - even though this obviously is a sub-920mb storm, they still have it at 940, and are predicting a 3-6ft storm surge, which is preposterous to say the least. I mean, is there no one to tell them how extremely irresponsible this is, is there no communication between the JTWC and IMD and the other stations?

And for conversation's sake, I hope Napolitano aka Captain Obvious doesn't join in again with his pointless chatter, obviously I am aware that all precautions that they could have taken are going at full steam... It just strikes me as weird that a nation of 1 billion people cannot properly train and finance ONE SINGLE institution - not talking about preparing every village along the coast and having shelters and emergency response personnel, I'm talking about 1 building in Delhi or wherever that is properly staffed and properly equipped - something which, very apparently, India DOES NOT currently possess...


I hope I am wrong but I forsee a major humanitarian crisis and I suspect we will be hearing about it for weeks ... The facts are India is receiving aid from much of the world , why would it be ,a rich nation if it is receiving aid . I am aware the govt puts allot of money into Nuclear weapons in its arms race with Pakistan .

But does not develop its own infrastructure at the same time

So we will be heartbroken when it hits ....

JTWC will update at 11. Is that the most reliable source we have right now?
Quoting 10. SLU:
02BPHAILIN.140kts-918mb-167N-877E

We've not seen anything like this in the Atlantic in the last 1/2 decade.

Thank goodness!
Welcome Dr. Masters, thank you for reposting those impressive videos about the aftermaths of the 1999 cyclone and thanks as well for your detailled update on these terrible storms.
Looking good for texas in the 5 day..hope it verifies..
Morning all.

Quoting 856. FunnelVortex:
Yikes!

This reminds me of Hugo on steroids.
98L now has a large area of TD Force winds, or 30-40mph(Green) and a small area that has newly strengthened to TS strength, or 40mph (yellow).

I dont think the tracks into texas take it over any mountains in mexico..perhaps this should be watched..
Good morning all...we have a parade of storms.

22. SLU
SHF5 needs to calm down.


Found another article on Phailin

Cyclone Phailin may be worse than Katrina
Imagine the effect of 160 mph over small wooden shacks... not considering the sea water rise...

CHP6, stop doom casting....

98L LOOP

98L looks wetttt

I WANT THE SAME OVER ME!!!
Quoting 26. Torito:
CHP6, stop doom casting....

Not that unlikely in the WPac. It is expected to veer off to the north away from major landmasses however. Wipha's not going to do much with Nari in close proximity.
It inerests me to wonder about the mind set/soul of the folks facing this cyclone in India.



Nari

Deep greens surrounding the eye on the funktop.

Wipha

Best wishes for the people of India. I sincerely hope that this doesn't turn out to be the disaster that seems likely.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Deep greens surrounding the eye on the funktop.


Not good! Let's hope the folks living by the coast has made the proper preparations for a disaster of such magnitude.
From the NDTV live blog:

19:48 (IST) Odisha government sources:

- Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik overseeing entire preparedness and relief bandobast
- State government to evacuate two lakh [200 000] people by tonight, largely from six districts
- Chief Minister discuss evacuation, relief via video-conferencing with all district collectors
- 1999 cyclone relief was hit by poor communication, one or more satellite phones operational at all vulnerable districts
- Police wireless system beefed up as back-up for communication failures
- Elected representatives - MLAs to sarpanches - directed to be on field to ensure proper evacuation and cyclone shelter arrangement
- Cooked food to be supplied at all relief shelters tonight as evacuees won't have provisions
- Mass kitchens set up at all shelters
- Dry food packets readied for post-cyclone scenario
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Deep greens surrounding the eye on the funktop.



Awful! With some grey to boot.
Nari.

Phailin is now a Cat 5 as per JTWC and is forecasted to deepen further to 145 knots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 87.7E

---

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN INTENSE CYCLONE WITH A SLIGHTLY-
CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC EYE AND SEVERAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
SPIRALING OUT FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF PAST
MICROWAVE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 102343Z AND 110159Z SSMI/S IMAGE, SHOW
THE SYSTEM UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE NEWLY
FORMED EYEWALL HAS ALREADY BEGUN CONSOLIDATING. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY FIVE DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC PHAILIN IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, JUST BEFORE TAU 36.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 140 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTER
LANDFALL, TC PHAILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN INDIA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 54
FEET.
Quoting 40. MoltenIce:
Nari is now a Cat 5 as per JTWC.

They haven't updated the text advisory.


*Phailin.....
Quoting 41. Torito:


*Phailin.....
Fix'd.
Current Wind Speed 140 knots / ~160 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 145 knots / 167 MPH at October 11, 2013 2:00pm


James Reynolds (aka typhoonfury) is in Baler (Philippines) where Nari is about to make landfall.

You can follow him on Twitter.


Ascat caught half of 98L
Quoting 26. Torito:
CHP6, stop doom casting....

It's not that unrealistic, though... GFS had it bombing to 941 mb last night.
Phailin completed its eyewall replacement cycle much sooner than we would have liked. It now has the rest of today to intensify.

all those international management types who decided to send all our kids jobs overseas maybe did not consider a cat 5 cutting into their profits
Doom!,Doom everywhere! -_-..Meanwhile in D.C the grass is soggy and low lying areas are flooding with big puddles of rain.
Quoting 30. Torito:


That was a really quick EWRC.

BTW, anyone have an estimate on the size of the wind field? It looks like a gigantic storm.
Quoting 52. TimSoCal:


That was a really quick EWRC.
With little to no change in eye diameter for that matter.
Phailin looks very dangerous indeed, thanks for the post Doc.

Hope for the best for those in its path over in India.

On the atlantic front it seems like the season has been too quiet - hopefully its not saving up for a whopper.
Last night, I asked if anybody could tell me which satellites were providing coverage of the Indian Ocean, but it was in the middle of a Trollfest, and I received no response. Could someone please help me with links? TIA
Quoting 55. oldnewmex:
Last night, I asked if anybody could tell me which satellites were providing coverage of the Indian Ocean, but it was in the middle of a Trollfest, and I received no response. Could someone please help me with links? TIA

NRL TC
NOAA SSD
Quoting 53. MoltenIce:
With little to no change in eye diameter for that matter.

I expect eye diameter to increase a little bit over the next six hour or so as the final stages of eyewall replacement complete. You can clearly see a warm ring surround the eye on AVN IR imagery (the red), the last remnants of the dissipating inner eyewall.

Quoting 55. oldnewmex:
Last night, I asked if anybody could tell me which satellites were providing coverage of the Indian Ocean, but it was in the middle of a Trollfest, and I received no response. Could someone please help me with links? TIA


IMD's list
Quoting 52. TimSoCal:


That was a really quick EWRC.

BTW, anyone have an estimate on the size of the wind field? It looks like a gigantic storm.








The outermost radii represents 34 knot winds
The second wind radii represents 50 knot winds
The next radii represents 64 knot winds
Quoting 55. oldnewmex:
Last night, I asked if anybody could tell me which satellites were providing coverage of the Indian Ocean, but it was in the middle of a Trollfest, and I received no response. Could someone please help me with links? TIA

MESOSAT Indian Ocean Satellite Imagery
Quoting 55. oldnewmex:
Last night, I asked if anybody could tell me which satellites were providing coverage of the Indian Ocean, but it was in the middle of a Trollfest, and I received no response. Could someone please help me with links? TIA




IMD Sat Page
Thanks Dr. Masters.

With EWRC finished, there's nothing keeping Phailin from weakening until it makes landfall. I fear the aftermath will be horrendous.
Smaller in size?
Quoting 62. Ameister12:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

With EWRC finished, there's nothing keeping this storm from weakening until it makes landfall. The aftermath will be horrendous.


This storm is an absolute beast. This will be the strongest landfalling storm since Megi for sure.
Quoting 55. oldnewmex:
Last night, I asked if anybody could tell me which satellites were providing coverage of the Indian Ocean, but it was in the middle of a Trollfest, and I received no response. Could someone please help me with links? TIA


Stormsurf's link list.
A bit outdated though.
WOW that noreaster is killing PA right now


10inches in 24 hours
Quoting 57. 1900hurricane:

I expect eye diameter to increase a little bit over the next six hour or so as the final stages of eyewall replacement complete. You can clearly see a warm ring surround the eye on AVN IR imagery (the red), the last remnants of the dissipating inner eyewall.

That looks scarily close to the coast...
Yikes! Pinnhole eye!

TXIO24 KNES 111453
TCSNIO
A. 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 16.8N
D. 87.2E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW PINHOLE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CMG
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT
AND MET AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
Quoting 68. Tropicsweatherpr:
Yikes! Pinnhole eye!

TXIO24 KNES 111453
TCSNIO
A. 02B (PHAILIN)
B. 11/1430Z
C. 16.8N
D. 87.2E
E. ONE/MET-7
F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...OW PINHOLE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CMG
WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT
AND MET AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
Strongest cyclone of the year?
Quoting 66. SuperStorm093:
WOW that noreaster is killing PA right now


10inches in 24 hours


Of Rain ?

Gosh thats alot
This is not a sight anyone wants to see...

may god have mercy upon those in the path of phalin...
Quoting 70. VR46L:


Of Rain ?

Gosh thats alot


http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/wea ther-radar-24hr

yup check that out and still raining in those parts, hearing from friends up there that schools are being let out early
The eye wall region of these type of monster storms (Cat 4 and Cat 5) are basically equivalent to a huge, multi-mile diameter, tornado when you have wind speeds over 120 mph or so (up to those inner core micro-bursts/mini-vortexes of 175 mph winds).

Structural failure of most/all buildings in the eye wall at/near landfall is about guaranteed and the main killer as noted on here all morning is surge for any residents that did not evacuate to higher ground...However, evacuating to a mountain area, being whipped by copious rain and strong outer-bands is not a safe place either to ride out this type of storm. You really need to evacuate well away from the landfall location.

No surprise at the high death toll for these type of Indian cyclones given what is probably minimal mobility for the coastal residents in these regions.

It's a tragedy in the making and I am not looking forward to watching the news on this one over the weekend.

Quoting 70. VR46L:


Of Rain ?

Gosh thats alot


Rain yes, but not that much. The highest totals I found were from CoCoRaHS volunteers who recorded 6.24" in the last 24 hours. Harrisburg, PA recorded 4.40" in the last 24 hours, a record for that day.
-90C cloud tops are producing unholy amounts of precip

This is a potentially a catastrophic situation

Well, I hope the people in TC Phalin survive. It doesn't look like it will weaken anytime soon.
Quoting 70. VR46L:


Of Rain ?

Gosh thats alot


And as for school closings, there are a few for Pennsylvania:

And pictures of swollen creeks too
Quoting 76. Stormchaser2007:
-90C cloud tops are producing unholy amounts of precip

This is a potentially a catastrophic situation


OH NO!
The Big Three
(Phailin, Nari, and Wipha)
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:
The eye wall region of these type of monster storms (Cat 4 and Cat 5) are basically equivalent to a huge, multi-mile diameter, tornado when you have wind speeds over 120 mph or so (up to those inner core micro-bursts/mini-vortexes of 175 mph winds).

Structural failure of most/all buildings in the eye wall at/near landfall is about guaranteed and the main killer as noted on here all morning is surge for any residents that did not evacuate to higher ground...However, evacuating to a mountain area, being whipped by copious rain and strong outer-bands is not a safe place either to ride out this type of storm. You really need to evacuate well away from the landfall location.

No surprise at the high death toll for these type of Indian cyclones given what is probably minimal mobility for the coastal residents in these regions.

It's a tragedy in the making and I am not looking forward to watching the news on this one over the weekend.



I get the impression that people are unwilling to abandon their possessions. In particular boats. I suppose if you are a fisherman with an uninsured boat it would be extremely hard to abandon it.
Quoting 27. CaribBoy:
98L LOOP

98L looks wetttt

I WANT THE SAME OVER ME!!!



Take a ride on a boat a couple of miles east. You will have a lot of fun.
Quoting 81. Ameister12:
The Big Three

Kind of reminding me of the "Big Three" of '08 in the atlantic.
Quoting 69. Gearsts:
Strongest cyclone of the year?


Usagi and Pahilin are up there as the strongest in 2013 but it appears that this one will take the #1 place as strongest.
My buddy lives in York, and their are road closures everywhere. According the locals, they are at 9.23 inches in the past 24 hours.
Watching Phailin in all those loops (esp. post #62): Although some wobbles are normal with a storm of this strengh, it seems it's going straight to the West already for a while, despite the forecast tracks:




It would be sooo bad if they evacuate people in the wrong region.
Quoting 82. NCstu:


I get the impression that people are unwilling to abandon their possessions. In particular boats. I suppose if you are a fisherman with an uninsured boat it would be extremely hard to abandon it.


There is nowhere to hide from this type of catastrophic storm; evacuation and abandonment of your property is the only way to possibly save your life.I am at a loss of words now looking at the loops.

Will see everyone later.
Quoting 87. barbamz:
Watching Phailin in all those loops: Although some wobbles are normal with a storm of this strengh, it seems it's going straight to the West already for a while, despite the forecast tracks:



Kind of ironic how it says "Cyclone type unknown"
How fast is Phailin moving?
Quoting 90. muddertracker:
How fast is Phailin moving?

9 knots over the past 6 hours per JTWC. Plenty of time to strengthen.
From the JTWC:

TC 02B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
MAKE LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, JUST AFTER TAU 24.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 145 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST
Quoting 85. Tropicsweatherpr:


Usagi and Pahilin are up there as the strongest in 2013 but it appears that this one will take the #1 place as strongest.
Looks like Wilma so i'll go with it been the strongest.
Quoting 90. muddertracker:
How fast is Phailin moving?

It's moving NW at around 10mph.
Quoting 94. Ameister12:

It's moving NW at about 10mph.


Man...is there any good news with this storm?
Quoting 95. muddertracker:


Man...is there any good news with this storm?

Not that I can see.
Quoting 71. MAweatherboy1:
This is not a sight anyone wants to see...

Quoting stormpetrol:


Ascat caught half of 98L
Thanks to at least check on our forgotten "Low" every now an then, maybe a TD already....
Quoting 97. sebastianflorida:
THERE IS A HANDFUL ON THE BLOG THAT THINKS THEY WANT THIS IN THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD; trust me there are those people, and unfortunately they are the ones that would die or need rescuing because they misjudged the power and thought a storm like this was some kind of amusement park ride.
98L is looking really good despite dealing with so much shear.

Y'all don't have to talk about MJO. That's good news.
I know everyone here is worried about NE India.
I myself am worried about my wife's family that are now getting the southern part of the eye of Typhoon Nari, if not, very close to it.

The town circled is my wife's town.


DOST - Project NOAH

Rainfall intensity as of 10/11/13 11:50 PM
Metro Manila, Quezon City Science High School : 4.826 mm/hour
Metro Manila, Tunasan : 3.556 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Bontoc Government Center : 7.0 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Government Center : 8.636 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Paracelis : 3.81 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Sagada : 3.556 mm/hour
Mountain Province, Tadian : 3.048 mm/hour
Negros Oriental, Negros Oriental State University, Bajumpandan Campus : 5.08 mm/hour
Nueva Ecija, Pagasa Cabanatuan Station : 16.92 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Alfonso Castaneda : 25.4 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Aritao : 4.064 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Batu Bridge : 6.604 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Brgy. Holywood : 3.556 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Dalton Pass : 19.558 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Kayapa Municipal Hall : 4.318 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Philippine Science Highschool - Cagayan Valley Campus : 11.684 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, San Lorenzo Bridge : 6.858 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Solano : 13.716 mm/hour
Nueva Vizcaya, Villa Verde : 5.588 mm/hour
Occidental Mindoro, Brgy. Tayamaan : 16.256 mm/hour
Pampanga, City Sports Complex : 3.302 mm/hourP
ampanga, Mabalacat Municipal Hall : 3.302 mm/hour
Pampanga, Northville Day Care Center : 2.286 mm/hour
Pampanga, Pampanga Agricultural College : 3.73 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Aloragat Bridge : 9.652 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Banela : 4.826 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Sto. Tomas : 3.81 mm/hour
Pangasinan, Viray Bridge : 3.556 mm/hour
Quezon, Brgy. Lalo : 2.032 mm/hour
Quezon, Brgy. Magsaysay : 10.92 mm/hour
Quirino, Nagtipunan : 8.128 mm/hour
Quirino, President Bridge : 10.922 mm/hour
Rizal, Baras : 3.302 mm/hour
Rizal, Looc : 2.286 mm/hour
Rizal, Pililia : 3.302 mm/hour
Tarlac, Brgy. Central Azucarera De Tarlac : 2.794 mm/hour
Tarlac, Capas Municipal Hall : 2.032 mm/hour
Zamboanga City, Manicahan Spillway : 8.636 mm/hour
Aurora, Brgy. Calabuanan : 17.526 mm/hour
Aurora, Dinalungan National High School : 2.97 mm/hour
Bataan, Authority Of Freeport Area Of Bataan : 4.67 mm/hour
Bataan, Brgy Cabog-Cabog : 2.54 mm/hour
Bataan, Brgy Cataning : 2.794 mm/hour
Bataan, Orani State University : 3.302 mm/hour
Batangas, Brgy. Balitoc : 2.05 mm/hour
Batangas, Brgy. Kumintang : 18.542 mm/hour
Batangas, Laurel : 2.286 mm/hour
Batangas, Lemery : 2.54 mm/hour
Batangas, Padre Garcia : 6.604 mm/hour
Benguet, Bakun : 5.588 mm/hour
Benguet, Bokod : 12.192 mm/hour
Benguet, Buguias : 12.446 mm/hour
Benguet, Itogon : 2.286 mm/hour
Bulacan, Pandi Municipal Hall : 2.286 mm/hour
Cagayan, Claveria Grassroots Cooperative Bank : 2.032 mm/hour
Cagayan, Pamplona Municipal Hall : 2.286 mm/hour
Cagayan, Sanchez Mira Municipal Hall : 17.78 mm/hour
Cagayan, Sta. Praxedes : 12.192 mm/hour
Cavite, Dasmarinas : 2.54 mm/hour
Cavite, Sangley Point : 4.68 mm/hour
Ifugao, Asipulo : 5.588 mm/hour
Ifugao, Banaue : 2.54 mm/hour
Ifugao, Hingyon : 9.398 mm/hour
Ifugao, Ifugao State University : 5.842 mm/hour
Ilocos Norte, Brgy. Saud : 2.03 mm/hour
Isabela, Dalibubun Bridge : 6.096 mm/hour
Isabela, Ganano Bridge : 3.556 mm/hour
Isabela, Lgu Compound : 4.318 mm/hour
Isabela, Santiago City Brdige : 2.794 mm/hour
Kalinga, Lubuagan : 5.842 mm/hour
Kalinga, Tanudan : 2.286 mm/hour
Kalinga, Tinglayan : 2.54 mm/hour
Laguna, Kalayaan : 2.286 mm/hour
Laguna, Majayjay : 2.032 mm/hour
Laguna, Rizal : 3.302 mm/hour
Metro Manila, Dampalit Elementary School : 2.54 mm/hour
Metro Manila, Dost Bicutan : 3.75 mm/hour
Metro Manila, Napindan Js : 2.794 mm/hour
Metro Manila, Pio Valenzuela Elementary School : 2.54 mm/hour
Metro Manila, Qcpu : 2.286 mm/hour
Strong vorticity with 98L

Quoting 71. MAweatherboy1:
This is not a sight anyone wants to see...


Not to try to distract or belittle from India's situation..

But my question is: is Florida ready for something like this?

It would be utter chaos if a storm like Phailin were approaching somewhere like the highly developed Eastern Florida coast. Some of us may see this in our lifetime.
10 days!
Best looking invest I can ever recall this far East in Mid October.



If unable to see the picture, here's the link for it:
Local Station in Pennsylvania Flood Photos
Looks like masses are on the move away from Phailin. "Lakh" = 100.000

Live: lakhs flee as 'severe' Cyclone Phailin fear grips Odisha, Andhra Pradesh
Priya Ranjan Sahu and KV Lakshmana, Hindustan Times Bhubaneswar, October 11, 2013
First Published: 09:41 IST(11/10/2013) | Last Updated: 20:48 IST(11/10/2013)

Nearly 3 lakh people fled their homes in coastal areas of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh on Friday as a massive cyclone — so large it filled nearly the entire Bay of Bengal—gathered strength and headed towards eastern coast.

Forecasters said cyclone Phailin, which will make landfall near Gopalpur in Odisha on Saturday evening, was a "very severe cyclonic storm" and is expected to cause large-scale power and communications outages and shut down rail links if it continues on its current path without weakening. There would also be extensive damage to crops.

Using trucks and buses, authorities evacuated more than 260,000 people from dozens of vulnerable villages in coastal Odisha and Andhra Pradesh to government-run shelters, schools and buildings. More than 1 lakh were evacuated from Ganjam---the most vulnerable to Phailin’s landfall---alone.

Odisha special relief commissioner Pradeep Kumar Mohapatra said about 5 lakh were expected to move to shelters in the state.

Besides 280 multi-purpose cyclone shelters in the vulnerable districts, about 10,000 concrete schools have been converted into temporary cyclone shelters to house the evacuated people. These shelters have been stocked with food items, medicines and auto fuels. ...
The outerbands of 98L is shielding 98L from the strongest shear. Very interesting.

Quoting 100. StormTrackerScott:
98L is looking really good despite dealing with so much shear.



Oops I clicked on the minus by accident... :s Stupid mouse :/

But yes, I agree 98L LOOKS GOOD and I'm really hoping that it won't move too far north of my area. :)
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/25
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over Central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.


Surge up to 3 1/2 meters


Excerpt:

(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 mt. above astronomical tide would
inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam
district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
Quoting 103. StormTrackerScott:
Strong vorticity with 98L



But elongated.


Eye starting to clear out a bit.
Quoting 113. Tropicsweatherpr:


But elongated.


I want it I WANT IT!!!
The evacuation of about 64,000 people from low-lying areas of vulnerable districts in Andhra Pradesh has also begun, AFP reports.

India's eastern coast and Bangladesh are routinely hit by cyclonic storms between April and November which cause deaths and widespread damage to property.


BBC NEWS: Cyclone Phailin: India's Orissa and Andhra Pradesh prepare for storm
I think hurr. season is ending sooner this year due to global cooling. It isn't even cold yet, and the dry air coming in from the north has plunged down into the vicinity of central America! Wow, the Carib. has just been a push-over. There usually is at least a good fight to hold onto summer in the SO. USA, but this year, nothing at all: summer just died, fast.
118. VR46L
Quoting 102. AussieStorm:
I know everyone here is worried about NE India.
I myself am worried about my wife's family that are now getting the southern part of the eye of Typhoon Nari, if not, very close to it.


I can understand that ... Thoughts and prayers Aussie



TYPHOON NARI (SANTI) HOURLY UPDATE #009B
Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines, Taguig City, Philippines
7:55 pm PhT (Manila Time) Friday, October 11, 2013

At 7:00 PM PhT...11:00 GMT...the cloud-filled eye of Typhoon Nari was located by MTSAT-2 satellite imagery...to be near latitude 15.5º north...longitude 122.4º east or about 85 kilometers southeast of Casiguran, Aurora...and 90 kilometers east-southeast of Baler, Aurora.

Nari still maintains a strong wind and rain circulation, however, it has started to weaken as it interacts with the Sierra Madre Mountains.

Its western eyewall continues to approach the coast of Aurora.

Inner rainbands spreading across the Aurora, Northern Quezon and Polillo Island, Eastern Nueva Ecija and Eastern Rizal...while its outer rainbands remain across the whole of Luzon including Bicol Region, Mindoro, Marinduque and the Calamian Group of Islands.

Forecaster DM Padua


Copyright 2013 Meteomedia Philippines / WeatherPhilippines Foundation
Quoting 109. StormTrackerScott:
The outerbands of 98L is shielding 98L from the strongest shear. Very interesting.



What needs to make 98L to keep moving west and not north? I want 98L keep going straight (west) under Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 111. nrtiwlnvragn:
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/25
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over Central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.


Surge up to 3 1/2 meters


Excerpt:

(iii) Storm Surge Guidance: Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 mt. above astronomical tide would
inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam
district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.

3.5 meters for a storm of this caliber. Shoot me now.
Phailin

Linkwww.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/02B/imagery/vis _lalo-animated.gif
NOT something you'd want to see coming towards one of the most populated countries in the world.


James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 1m
All over, a swift 3 hour hammering in Baler. 3 strong #typhoon eyewalls in 6 days, I'm done with storms for this season!! #santiph #Nari

Edit:
James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 5m
Eye of #SantiPH / #Nari jogged north subjecting us to full onshore front right quadrant of the #typhoon in Baler pic.twitter.com/8ipkWIXA4X

TORNADO WARNING
SDC049-107-111645-
/O.NEW.KABR.TO.W.0016.131011T1609Z-131011T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FAULK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1105 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SENECA...OR 17 MILES WEST OF FAULKTON...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
TOLSTOY AROUND 1130 AM CDT.


THIS WARNING INCLUDES HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 243 AND 252.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4524 9987 4524 9953 4496 9937 4493 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 147DEG 33KT 4503 9949

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN


$$
HINTZ
Quoting 114. 1900hurricane:


Eye starting to clear out a bit.



Amazing how it is nearly perfectly circular in terms of intense cloud tops... Not very good for those in india right now.
Two majors and one forecast to become a major!
I really give up ... TIRED with this season. BUST.
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:

3.5 meters for a storm of this caliber. Shoot me now.


Amazes me the level of incompetence from the Indian cyclone agency. No way this is only producing only a 11 ft storm surge (for those who don't read metrics). I'd argue around 6 meters for a storm like this.
Quoting 128. CaribBoy:
I really give up ... TIRED with this season. BUST.


Ok, cool! Log off! Thanks!
132. SLU
A potential disaster of the decade scenario is developing here:

133. VR46L
Quoting 127. SFLWeatherman:
Two majors and one forecast to become a major!


And all will impact land ...
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:

3.5 meters for a storm of this caliber. Shoot me now.


And we wonder why their storms are so deadly...
Quoting 131. proroller:


Ok, cool! Log off! Thanks!


I think you should do the same.
Quoting 132. SLU:
A potential disaster of the decade scenario is developing here:



Situation reminds me of the 1999 Odisha cyclone. However, I don't expect the death toll to be quite as high given that there'd been a Category 4 cyclone only weeks before the 1999 Odisha cyclone.
98L is doing........well 0-o.LMAO it's trying to prove all the downers.While they're to busy paying attention to the storm in the BOB 98L is putting on a show of surprise.
Quoting 129. CybrTeddy:



Amazes me the level of incompetence from the Indian cyclone agency. No way this is only producing only a 11 ft storm surge (for those who don't read metrics). I'd argue around 6 meters for a storm like this.


And what amazes me more is WU is actually running with this figure, LSU state professor Hal Needham agrees with the figure of a 20ft storm surge.
139. VR46L
Ruh-Roh
Quoting 140. SFLWeatherman:
98L
Don't pay attention to it!.If we don't pay attention to it will develop like Jerry did!.
Quoting 120. TropicalAnalystwx13:

3.5 meters for a storm of this caliber. Shoot me now.


Not much of a continental shelf in that area, Bay drops off to ~9000 ft not far offshore (relatively).





Quoting 132. SLU:
A potential disaster of the decade scenario is developing here:



If there is a piece of good news is that it will not make landfall in Bangladesh but anyway it will be a disaster as millons live in the area of impact.
Quoting 141. washingtonian115:
Don't pay attention to it!.If we don't pay attention to it will develop like Jerry did!.


Very true. lol
146. SLU
Quoting 136. CybrTeddy:


Situation reminds me of the 1999 Odisha cyclone. However, I don't expect the death toll to be quite as high given that there'd been a Category 4 cyclone only weeks before the 1999 Odisha cyclone.


Yup. This one could be pretty bad.
147. SLU
Quoting 143. Tropicsweatherpr:


If there is a piece of good news is that it will not make landfall in Bangladesh but anyway it will be a disaster as millons live in the area of impact.


Oh for sure if it was heading for B'desh we'd be looking at a death toll in the hundreds of thousands.
148. NCstu
Quoting 123. CybrTeddy:
NOT something you'd want to see coming towards one of the most populated countries in the world.




fortunately the population density of the landfall location is low by Indian standards. If you compare the population density of Bangladesh and West Bengal you can see how storms can kill hundreds of thousands of people.

Given that there is a category 5 equivalent storm headed towards land in the Bay of Bengal, the landfall locaton is almost a best case scenario.
Quoting 117. StaringAtTheSun:
I think hurr. season is ending sooner this year due to global cooling. It isn't even cold yet, and the dry air coming in from the north has plunged down into the vicinity of central America! Wow, the Carib. has just been a push-over. There usually is at least a good fight to hold onto summer in the SO. USA, but this year, nothing at all: summer just died, fast.
Awesome theory, dude. Write it up, get it peer-reviewed, and publish it; you may really be on to something that has so far eluded tens of thousands of other scientists...

Nari (Santi) hitting the Philippines.


Looks like catastrophic rainfalls.
Quoting 143. Tropicsweatherpr:


If there is a piece of good news is that it will not make landfall in Bangladesh but anyway it will be a disaster as millons live in the area of impact.


Dependent upon total rainfall amounts, there could still be a significant indirect impact on Bangladesh as the delta is not only very vulnerable to incoming storms & surge etc but also to flooding from high river levels.

Watching closely with, sadly, a growing sense of foreboding
Quoting 153. SSideBrac:


Dependent upon total rainfall amounts, there could still be a significant indirect impact on Bangladesh as the delta is not only very vulnerable to incoming storms & surge etc but also to flooding from high river levels.

Watching closely with, sadly, a growing sense of foreboding


Good point about possible indirect effects there.
11 October 1737 → Some records indicate that on this date Calcutta, India was struck by a powerful hurricane while simultaneously experiencing a devastating earthquake...resulting in a death toll of 300,000. However recent research has shown that while the city was indeed struck by a terrible cyclone that day, evidence of an earthquake is slim. Also, the death toll was more likely 3,000 rather than 300,000.

Aberdeen NWS
Quoting 152. hydrus:


Still fighting hard.
Thanks for the update,
58.5F here this morning (9:42).



More than a little surprised to see that there are no computer models for Phailin. Is this an aberration or par for the course? I saw there is a GFS model for typhoon Nari...
98L is being SHEARED

Stupid 12Z GFS
This is just as bad as TS Lee. Water rescues, lots of creeks flooding, schools closing, roads closed, bridges damaged... I wonder how the Susquehanna will react. No flooding forecasted as of now but if we keep getting rain, I wouldn't be surprised if the Susquehanna gets angry. Nearly 9 inches of rain
Quoting 158. NixUsr:
More than a little surprised to see that there are no computer models for Phailin. Is this an aberration or par for the course? I saw there is a GFS model for typhoon Nari...


Ummmmm...

Quoting 160. CaribBoy:
Stupid 12Z GFS


I feel ya, bro.

The GFS not only dropped a snow event for me next week, but it also weakened the low in the recent run.

Quoting 158. NixUsr:
More than a little surprised to see that there are no computer models for Phailin. Is this an aberration or par for the course? I saw there is a GFS model for typhoon Nari...


Depends on where you look







Link
Quoting 164. FunnelVortex:


I feel ya, bro.

The GFS not only dropped a snow event for me next week, but it also weakened the low in the recent run.



:-(( The weather really influences my mood.

Boring weather = bad mood
Models back off = bad mood
Hopeless seasons like 2013 = bad mood

And bad mood reduces productivity

I NEED WEATHER !!!!
The GFS is combining multiple lows into a gigantic cyclone in the north atlantic.

168. NCstu
can anyone point me to an updated rainfall potential map like the one in the blog entry?
Quoting 166. CaribBoy:


:-(( The weather really influences my mood.

Boring weather = bad mood
Models back off = bad mood
Hopeless seasons like 2013 = bad mood

And bad mood reduces productivity

I NEED WEATHER !!!!


Maybe we should all cash in and fly you to an island in the WPAC.
Quoting 159. FunnelVortex:
98L is being SHEARED

But impressive.
Quoting 157. PedleyCA:
Thanks for the update,
58.5F here this morning (9:42).





Rainy season is over for S.W. Florida. We went from T storms every day to no rain. It's wonderful when the rainy season ends for us.
Mostly sunny weather with much lower humidity from now until May.
Phailin has missed is running about 60 miles south of its forecast points right now. If it doesn't turn back north soon, Visakhapanam (pop. 1.5 mil.) is in the bullseye.
Phailin seems to have slowed down a little bit on the last few satt loop frames just off the coast....That will only prolong eye wall circulation over affected areas as it slowly drifts toward land.
Wipha looking better.

I feel for those in Luzon in the Philippines. Being struck by a strong typhoon in the middle of the night is not a pleasant thought.
Quoting 175. Patrap:

Judging by the images in this link from Patrap, the centre of the cyclone is heading directly west.
Thanks to FunnelVortex, Patrap and nrtiwlnvragn for the wake-ups.
Quoting 166. CaribBoy:


:-(( The weather really influences my mood.

Boring weather = bad mood
Models back off = bad mood
Hopeless seasons like 2013 = bad mood

And bad mood reduces productivity

I NEED WEATHER !!!!


maybe you will see some winter rains this year
Quoting 179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




The GFS seems to be the biggest hurricane hater at the moment.
Phailin Wave height forecast.

Link to INCOIS

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Depends on where you look







Link

That link does not work for me, either in Firefox or IE.
Quoting 169. FunnelVortex:


Maybe we should all cash in and fly you to an island in the WPAC.


:)))) I would have to build a very very robust house!
02B/MH/P/C4
Quoting 179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe you will see some winter rains this year


Maybe ...
Quoting 178. NixUsr:
Thanks to FunnelVortex, Patrap and nrtiwlnvragn for the wake-ups.


98L is in the middle of the Atlantic and not a threat to anyone at the moment; Phailin is about to potentially kill thousands of people. We are witnessing a sobering moment in the history of tropical storms.
Indian authorities seem to be taking it seriously. Hopefully the situation is under control.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-state s/phailin-likely-to-hit-coast-at-6-pm-tomorrow/art icle5224656.ece?homepage=true

The U.S. Navy has also forecast that the wind speed will be above 240 kmph. Therefore, the cyclone is not less than any super cyclone for us, Special Relief Commissioner P.K. Mohapatra told reporters in Bhubaneshwar.

The Odisha health department cancelled holidays and leaves of all doctors in view of the impending situation even as the State government set a target of "zero casualty" and ordered speedy evacuation of people in seven coastal districts.
Quoting 183. CaribBoy:


:)))) I would have to build a very very robust house!


Just make sure it's well built, you will get constant Category 5 Typhoon strikes.
Quoting 186. weathermanwannabe:


98L is in the middle of the Atlantic and not a threat to anyone at the moment; Phailin is about to potentially kill thousands of people. We are witnessing a sobering moment in the history of tropical storms.


History in the making.
Quoting 177. PlazaRed:

Judging by the images in this link from Patrap, the centre of the cyclone is heading directly west.
come about -82.69/17.13
Looking more symmetrical now.


Also, WOW!
Not the best pass in the world, but I'll take it.

Quoting 117. WalkingInTheSun:
I think hurr. season is ending sooner this year due to global cooling. It isn't even cold yet, and the dry air coming in from the north has plunged down into the vicinity of central America! Wow, the Carib. has just been a push-over. There usually is at least a good fight to hold onto summer in the SO. USA, but this year, nothing at all: summer just died, fast.


To quote Vizzini: Truly you have a dizzying intellect.
Wow.
9m waves :|
Link
Quoting 183. CaribBoy:


:)))) I would have to build a very very robust house!
On some very robust STILTS!
But my question is: is Florida ready for something like this?



to a point....yes....there's no denying that a cat 5 is going to cause damage anywhere and probably loss of life....but where florida differs...is the buildings are built to a higher standard and although damage to many would occur....complete and total damged homes would be minimal....secondly and most important is aid type services...getting back to "normal" would happen at a far more rapid pace....




Quoting 193. Xyrus2000:


To quote Vizzini: Truly you have a dizzying intellect.
we are going to freeze but we fry first
Not that exciting after all the cyclone reports but more records were broken yesterday in SoCal. Note Indio broke a 119 year old record by two degrees:

Lowest minimum temperature records broken or tied on Oct 10 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Thermal 45 48 in 2007 1950


... Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Oct 10 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Ramona 64 68 in 1986 1974
alpine 63 66 in 1986 1952
Campo 62 63 in 1985 1948
thermal 75 78 in 1960 1950
Indio 76 78 in 1960 1894

This may be why there is confusion of the seemingly low 3 meter storm surge forecast.. in an article from the Times of India you will see below...

"BHUBANESWAR: With IMD warning a storm surge of about 15 feet (3 meters) besides wind speed of about 220kmph during landfall of cyclone Phailin on Saturday evening, Odisha government on Friday set a target of "zero casualty" and ordered speedy evacuation of people in seven coastal districts."
Apparently in India a meter is 5 five feet and not 3.28084 feet in length....

Article Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Situation reminds me of the 1999 Odisha cyclone. However, I don't expect the death toll to be quite as high given that there'd been a Category 4 cyclone only weeks before the 1999 Odisha cyclone.

At least on the current track, this storm will also make landfall about 200 miles south of the 1999 storm. The population density for that section of India is not high (relatively speaking), and the coast is not all lowlands. As usual, Bangladesh is more at risk, since the storm surge and high rivers from heavy rain overwhelm the delta that makes up most of Bangladesh. There is nowhere to evacuate, so people find the highest small hills in the delta they can and just wait it out. In the 1999 storm, almost the entire Bangladesh Air Force was destroyed by flooding because there was nowhere to fly the planes to safety. The Air Force could have flown the planes to Indian air bases, but the Bangladesh Air Force didn't have enough fuel on hand for more than a few aircraft to make the flight, and many other aircraft weren't in the mechanical condition to make such a flight. If you've never been to Bangladesh, it's hard to realize how difficult it is to keep that country running on a daily basis let alone a full-blown disaster.
Quoting 150. Neapolitan:
Awesome theory, dude. Write it up, get it peer-reviewed, and publish it; you may really be on to something that has so far eluded tens of thousands of other scientists...


You mean it is all back to global warming again?
First it was warming, then cooling, now warming again?
Or is it called something else now, entirely?
Hey, what am I supposed to call it now without getting people miffed? I gotta use the right words, right?
(sigh)....Here I was, just innocently alluding to global whatever it's called, and get fussed at because I used the OLD term rather than the new one. Is it because something happened to make things not as cold or something? I said it was not that cold yet, but did use the term "global cooling", so it should be okay, I would think.
Quoting 193. Xyrus2000:


To quote Vizzini: Truly you have a dizzying intellect.
"Anybody wanna peanut?"
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
just innocently


cough cough...of course....cough cough
Quoting Jeff Masters:
Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves."
Along similar lines, when the 2004 tsunami affected parts of the same general area, shorelines that had been stripped of mangroves and other similar coastal vegetation for fish/shrimp farming or development were more likely to sustain heavier death tolls and property damage than areas that had intact mangrove forests. It's obvious, then, that removing mangroves is, in most cases, shortsighted and ill-advised. For not only do those forests help hold back the waves, they also provide natural feeding and breeding grounds for important species of birds and fish, and they absorb atmospheric CO2, keeping it out of the air where it's causing climate change.

So...the next time you find yourself in the mood for a home-cooked shrimp or fish dinner, stay away from big-box clubs and other retailers who bulk peddle those plastic bags of frozen shrimp stamped China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc., for there's a great chance those shrimp were raised in a crowded farm carved out of the protective mangrove forests. Look instead for seafood that's been responsibly raised. You'll likely pay a bit more, but better dinner costs you a few extra pennies than it costs someone their livelihood--or their life...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
207. txjac
Quoting 205. Neapolitan:
Along similar lines, when the 2004 tsunami affected parts of the same general area, shorelines that had been stripped of mangroves and other similar coastal vegetation for fish/shrimp farming or development were more likely to sustain heavier death tolls and property damage than areas that had intact mangrove forests. It's obvious, then, that removing mangroves is, in most cases, shortsighted and ill-advised. For not only do those forests help hold back the waves, they also provide natural feeding and breeding grounds for important species of birds and fish, and they absorb atmospheric CO2, keeping it out of the air where it's causing climate change.

So...the next time you find yourself in the mood for a home-cooked shrimp or fish dinner, stay away from big-box clubs and other retailers who bulk peddle those plastic bags of frozen shrimp stamped China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc., for there's a great chance those shrimp were raised in a crowded farm carved out of the protective mangrove forests. Look instead for seafood that's been responsibly raised. You'll likely pay a bit more, but better dinner costs you a few extra pennies than it costs someone their livelihood--or their life...


Only buy local Nea ...and its hard to find sometimes as the COO is disguised. If I dont see where its from I ask
208. VR46L
Quoting 201. WalkingInTheSun:


You mean it is all back to global warming again?
First it was warming, then cooling, now warming again?
Or is it called something else now, entirely?
Hey, what am I supposed to call it now without getting people miffed? I gotta use the right words, right?
(sigh)....Here I was, just innocently alluding to global whatever it's called, and get fussed at because I used the OLD term rather than the new one. Is it because something happened to make things not as cold or something? I said it was not that cold yet, but did use the term "global cooling", so it should be okay, I would think.


I believe its now called Climate change ....
Quoting 208. VR46L:


I believe its now called Climate change ....
eventually climate shift
Quoting 206. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


The last epilog it seems.
98L is looking really good! This could be one to watch across the NE Caribbean, then Bahamas, and then the SE US down the road.

Hey can someone post a rainfall image of Phalin? thanks.
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:
98L is looking really good! This could be one to watch across the NE Caribbean, then Bahamas, and then the SE US down the road.


The Bermuda High is not that strong, this storm might brush by the lesser Antilles but I highly doubt it would make it to the Bahamas or anywhere near the U.S.
Many long range models beginning to show a strong ridge building near Bermuda over the next 8 to 10 days.

Lowest pressure yet; highest winds yet:

AL, 98, 2013101118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 379W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
no surprise GEM develops 98.............
220. VR46L
Quoting 207. txjac:


Only buy local Nea ...and its hard to find sometimes as the COO is disguised. If I dont see where its from I ask


At least most of American Manufacturing Companies is still produce in US .

I can't say the same for Europe .. I can hardly buy a trousers that didn't originate in a Bangladesh sweat shop or a kettle that didn't originate from China from a european Company . and most customer services are now based in India . Because the labour is cheap . and because the labour is cheap , people will not have the necessary building structures ....
The Bermuda High is not that strong, this storm might brush by the lesser Antilles but I highly doubt it would make it to the Bahamas or anywhere near the U.S.



shhh...you'll disappoint the doomcasters
Quoting ricderr:
But my question is: is Florida ready for something like this?



to a point....yes....there's no denying that a cat 5 is going to cause damage anywhere and probably loss of life....but where florida differs...is the buildings are built to a higher standard and although damage to many would occur....complete and total damged homes would be minimal....secondly and most important is aid type services...getting back to "normal" would happen at a far more rapid pace....





I think that's true for structures built since 1993 and mostly for south Florida. Florida has excellent building codes for mitigating wind damage,but the only measure that will mitigate storm surge damage is raising structure. Drive around with 500 yards of any beach and count the number of homes that have been raised compared to those that haven't. Unless the area has been struck by one of the 2004/2005 hurricanes, you'll find the percentage is very low.

In terms of rescue response, south Florida has some of the best organized fire and rescue agencies in the country. They don't really have much choice, since they are too far away from any other state for mutual aid. As you move up the state, resources progressively become less and not as organized. Once you get to the Panhandle, real trouble starts. Rescue resources are adequate, but much of the infrastructure will be damaged or destroyed. The Panhandle will have to depend on mutual aid from surrounding states, if they can get there. Georgia is the best hope in terms of having intact resources, since a Panhandle hit is least likely to affect major population centers. Mississippi actually has a very well organized and equipped EMA and rescue agencies as a result of the terrific damage from Katrina. Depending on how big the hurricane and where it hits. the may be occupied and depending on out of state resources already.

Then we come to my state, Alabama. Any hurricane affecting the Panhandle will also affect south Alabama, so they will get the first call on resources. I hate to say it but, having done work with the Alabama EMA as a ham radio operator, Alabama is going to have a hard enough time making not making a mess of our own problems, let alone helping Florida.

It's never good to get too smug about building standards and rescue and aid resources, but south Florida and the rest of the state are really like two different states. A major hurricane hit on Mobile and the Panhandle is going to be a far bigger disaster than most people realize, and far worse than south Florida.
Wipha.
Quoting sar2401:

I think that's true for structures built since 1993 and mostly for south Florida. Florida has excellent building codes for mitigating wind damage,but the only measure that will mitigate storm surge damage is raising structures. Drive around with 500 yards of any beach and count the number of homes that have been raised compared to those that haven't. Unless the area has been struck by one of the 2004/2005 hurricanes, you'll find the percentage is very low.

In terms of rescue response, south Florida has some of the best organized fire and rescue agencies in the country. They don't really have much choice, since they are too far away from any other state for mutual aid. As you move up the state, resources progressively become less and not as organized. Once you get to the Panhandle, real trouble starts. Rescue resources are adequate, but much of the infrastructure will be damaged or destroyed. The Panhandle will have to depend on mutual aid from surrounding states, if they can get there. Georgia is the best hope in terms of having intact resources, since a Panhandle hit is least likely to affect major population centers. Mississippi actually has a very well organized and equipped EMA and rescue agencies as a result of the terrific damage from Katrina. Depending on how big the hurricane and where it hits. the may be occupied and depending on out of state resources already.

Then we come to my state, Alabama. Any hurricane affecting the Panhandle will also affect south Alabama, so they will get the first call on resources. I hate to say it but, having done work with the Alabama EMA as a ham radio operator, Alabama is going to have a hard enough time making not making a mess of our own problems, let alone helping Florida.

It's never good to get too smug about building standards and rescue and aid resources, but south Florida and the rest of the state are really like two different states. A major hurricane hit on Mobile and the Panhandle is going to be a far bigger disaster than most people realize, and far worse than south
Florida.
Quoting 221. ricderr:
The Bermuda High is not that strong, this storm might brush by the lesser Antilles but I highly doubt it would make it to the Bahamas or anywhere near the U.S.



shhh...you'll disappoint the doomcasters

Well, India is doomed due to Phalin.
226. VR46L
Quoting 213. 62901IL:
Hey can someone post a rainfall image of Phalin? thanks.


Quoting 226. VR46L:



Thanks!
The IMD now has Phailin at 105 knots (3-minute sustained) with a pressure of 940 mbar. And they mention that the storm is no longer intensifying.
Quoting 188. FunnelVortex:


Just make sure it's well built, you will get constant Category 5 Typhoon strikes.


xD
230. VR46L
Quoting 227. 62901IL:

Thanks!


Your Welcome :)
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:
98L is looking really good! This could be one to watch across the NE Caribbean, then Bahamas, and then the SE US down the road.



:-)
Quoting 208. VR46L:


I believe its now called Climate change ....


So, um, which way is the climate supposed to change, now? I gotta know so I don't get fussed at if I guess the wrong way. Hotter, colder, wetter, drier, foggier?
Quoting 214. LargoFl:


Boring fish
Quoting 228. MoltenIce:
The IMD now has Phailin at 105 knots (3-minute sustained) with a pressure of 940 mbar. And they mention that the storm is no longer intensifying.


2013OCT11 093000 6.2 921.8 +0.0 119.8 6.0 5.6 4.4

They might have looked at this.. the raw dvorak number was weakening.
2013OCT11 173000 7.2 890.4 +0.0 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -9.96 -82.10 EYE 12 IR 44.9 16.82 -87.01

7.0 from New Delphi ADT
Quoting 201. WalkingInTheSun:


You mean it is all back to global warming again?
First it was warming, then cooling, now warming again?
Or is it called something else now, entirely?
Hey, what am I supposed to call it now without getting people miffed? I gotta use the right words, right?
(sigh)....Here I was, just innocently alluding to global whatever it's called, and get fussed at because I used the OLD term rather than the new one. Is it because something happened to make things not as cold or something? I said it was not that cold yet, but did use the term "global cooling", so it should be okay, I would think.


Watch it. You don't want to commit heresy against the only true religion....Global Warming.
Quoting 228. MoltenIce:
The IMD now has Phailin at 105 knots (3-minute sustained) with a pressure of 940 mbar. And they mention that the storm is no longer intensifying.


From the most recent loops, the visible eye has clouded over a little bit and the core has expanded slightly; that would be consistent with a slight rise in pressures but the overall higher wind speeds near the core will cover a broader area. Hopefully the proximity to land will not allow for another EWRC before landfall.
sad are those that smile when they think a storm might make landfall
Quoting 217. Neapolitan:
Lowest pressure yet; highest winds yet:

AL, 98, 2013101118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 379W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Send it to the Leewards
98L/INV/XX
Quoting 205. Neapolitan:
Along similar lines, when the 2004 tsunami affected parts of the same general area, shorelines that had been stripped of mangroves and other similar coastal vegetation for fish/shrimp farming or development were more likely to sustain heavier death tolls and property damage than areas that had intact mangrove forests. It's obvious, then, that removing mangroves is, in most cases, shortsighted and ill-advised. For not only do those forests help hold back the waves, they also provide natural feeding and breeding grounds for important species of birds and fish, and they absorb atmospheric CO2, keeping it out of the air where it's causing climate change.

So...the next time you find yourself in the mood for a home-cooked shrimp or fish dinner, stay away from big-box clubs and other retailers who bulk peddle those plastic bags of frozen shrimp stamped China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, etc., for there's a great chance those shrimp were raised in a crowded farm carved out of the protective mangrove forests. Look instead for seafood that's been responsibly raised. You'll likely pay a bit more, but better dinner costs you a few extra pennies than it costs someone their livelihood--or their life...
Nea.... Just look at the packages in Winn-Dixie or Publix... Almost ALL the shrimp and Tilapia comes from the places you mentioned. Hard to find USA grown or raised. The closest I find for tilapia is Costa Rica. If you ever see or read about the fish farms "over there" you would never eat it again. They are fed , well , you know.
242. VR46L
Quoting 232. WalkingInTheSun:


So, um, which way is the climate supposed to change, now? I gotta know so I don't get fussed at if I guess the wrong way. Hotter, colder, wetter, drier, foggier?


I think thats why its now called Climate Change , some places have experienced more cold , some more warm ..

I better get off this subject it gets me into trouble
Quoting 239. CaribBoy:


Send it to the Leewards
I see a renumber coming soon.
Quoting 232. WalkingInTheSun:


So, um, which way is the climate supposed to change, now? I gotta know so I don't get fussed at if I guess the wrong way. Hotter, colder, wetter, drier, foggier?

You could always try researching the topic. I've found that helpful in learning.
245. NCstu
Quoting 228. MoltenIce:
The IMD now has Phailin at 105 knots (3-minute sustained) with a pressure of 940 mbar. And they mention that the storm is no longer intensifying.


That's horrible! Where are they getting their informaton?! That's not even close to the JTWC. There is no way that storm is above 930.
Quoting 242. VR46L:


I think thats why its now called Climate Change , some places have experienced more cold , some more warm ..

I better get off this subject it gets me into trouble

Take a wild guess what the "CC" in "IPCC" stands for? Then google "IPCC" and see when that "CC" was put in there. ;)
Quoting 245. NCstu:


That's horrible! Where are they getting their informaton?! That's not even close to the JTWC. There is no way that storm is above 930.


The IMD advisory that is 6+ hours ago.
Quoting 236. olnutt:


Watch it. You don't want to commit heresy against the only true religion....Global Warming.


Do its adherants meet in...the Temple of Gloom?
Sounds like a movie could be made or something.
Oh yeah, one was made -- an incovenient something or other: helped someone get rich I think.
Should just stick to being poor & factual, so it doesn't make unbelievers suspicious.
Quoting 236. olnutt:


Watch it. You don't want to commit heresy against the only true religion....Global Warming.

Mmmmm...free derp!
98L has hit a wall of increasing wind shear.
Quoting 241. PalmBeachWeather:
Nea.... Just look at the packages in Winn-Dixie or Publix... Almost ALL the shrimp and Tilapia comes from the places you mentioned. Hard to find USA grown or raised. The closest I find for tilapia is Costa Rica. If you ever see or read about the fish farms "over there" you would never eat it again. They are fed , well , you know.
Sustainable seafood is available in most any decent-sized city or town. You may not find it at your local WalMart or Sam's Club, but it's there. (And if it's not, ask your grocer to supply it, then buy it.) A great place to start: http://www.fishwatch.gov/...

For the record:

--Asian countries and Ecuador supply most of the shrimp to the U.S. market.
--Canada, Norway, and Chile supply most of the imported Atlantic salmon.
--China supplies most of the imported tilapia on the market, followed by Indonesia, Ecuador, and Honduras.
--Scallops are mainly imported from China, followed by Canada, Mexico, Japan, Argentina, and the Philippines.
--Canada, New Zealand, and Chile supply the majority of imported mussels in our market.
--Asian countries and Canada supply most of the imported clams to the U.S. market.
--Oysters are mainly imported from China, South Korea, and Canada.
02B/MH/P/C4

I am relatively sure that the agency primarily responsible for advisories on Phailin has underestimated its intensity since it began its rapid intensification.
Irony is..

Those Climate Change disbelievers are here posting today in the entry of one of the top Communicators of climate change.

O sweet Friday irony, we do Lub thee.

98L is also the biggest system we've seen so far this year as it is moving a lot of atmosphere.

Unfortunately the TRMM site trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov for rainfall measurement is down since US furlough started. Would be great/frightening to see a section or a 3 D animation of Phailin's rainfall and structure. :(
The Nasa earthobservatory sites ("picture of the day") are down too (at least for me).
Very strong vorticity with 98L

2013OCT11 173000 7.2 890.4 +0.0 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4

890.4 hPa !!
Quoting 257. Patrap:


WOW!!
Quoting 50. washingtonian115:
Doom!,Doom everywhere! -_-..Meanwhile in D.C the grass is soggy and low lying areas are flooding with big puddles of rain.


For me the rain is welcome. Over 3" but hard to measure because of trees. Bucket survey is 5"+ but that seems a bit high.
263. NCstu
Quoting 259. thunderfrance:
2013OCT11 173000 7.2 890.4 +0.0 146.0 7.2 7.4 7.4

890.4 hPa !!


that's lower than Andrew...
I am relatively sure that the agency primarily responsible for advisories on Phailin has underestimated its intensity since it began its rapid intensification.


ya they are. normally a T6.0 from the IMD is 115 knots instead of the 105 knots their using.

they're confusing me why they are not using 6.5 with their recent ADT program showing 7.0 now.
12Z Euro has 98L impacting the Leeward Islands as a weak system and also has EX Karen regenerating in the Bahamas.

Quoting 222. sar2401:



I think that's true for structures built since 1993 and mostly for south Florida. Florida has excellent building codes for mitigating wind damage,but the only measure that will mitigate storm surge damage is raising structure. Drive around with 500 yards of any beach and count the number of homes that have been raised compared to those that haven't. Unless the area has been struck by one of the 2004/2005 hurricanes, you'll find the percentage is very low.

In terms of rescue response, south Florida has some of the best organized fire and rescue agencies in the country. They don't really have much choice, since they are too far away from any other state for mutual aid. As you move up the state, resources progressively become less and not as organized. Once you get to the Panhandle, real trouble starts. Rescue resources are adequate, but much of the infrastructure will be damaged or destroyed. The Panhandle will have to depend on mutual aid from surrounding states, if they can get there. Georgia is the best hope in terms of having intact resources, since a Panhandle hit is least likely to affect major population centers. Mississippi actually has a very well organized and equipped EMA and rescue agencies as a result of the terrific damage from Katrina. Depending on how big the hurricane and where it hits. the may be occupied and depending on out of state resources already.

Then we come to my state, Alabama. Any hurricane affecting the Panhandle will also affect south Alabama, so they will get the first call on resources. I hate to say it but, having done work with the Alabama EMA as a ham radio operator, Alabama is going to have a hard enough time making not making a mess of our own problems, let alone helping Florida.

It's never good to get too smug about building standards and rescue and aid resources, but south Florida and the rest of the state are really like two different states. A major hurricane hit on Mobile and the Panhandle is going to be a far bigger disaster than most people realize, and far worse than south Florida.

I really don't think that saying how much worse a part of Florida will fare in a Cat. 5 is the big issue. No one is ready for a solid Cat. 5 like Phailin. No matter what part of FL it hits or the building codes for that area, it is going to be a huge disaster.
Quoting 234. HadesGodWyvern:


2013OCT11 093000 6.2 921.8 0.0 119.8 6.0 5.6 4.4

They might have looked at this.. the raw dvorak number was weakening.


If they're using a raw dvorak reading to determine intensity then I have honestly no words.
Perfect donut, reminds me of Dean in 2007, Megi in 2010, etc.
I agree with StormTrackerScott, there's going to a blocking high near Bermuda , in a few days , I can see this being a strong storm , or a hurricane , remember all this season needs to be real bad is a Phailin type of storm , to make 2013 a destructive season !
Quoting 244. Birthmark:

You could always try researching the topic. I've found that helpful in learning.
Really, now. We don't want to let facts get in the way of "witty" repartee, do we?

/snark
Quoting 269. CybrTeddy:
Perfect donut, reminds me of Dean in 2007, Megi in 2010, etc.

Also notice how the eye is cooling down and expanding slightly.
Quoting 269. CybrTeddy:
Perfect donut, reminds me of Dean in 2007, Megi in 2010, etc.

It looks to have really slowed down or even stalled in the past couple hours.
Hi again . Guys what is the current situation ? Its pouring rains and heavy winds . I'm in the capital of orissa , bhubaneswar I.e . Nobody is asleep lol.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 926.8mb/132.2kt

Quoting 270. EyEtoEyE:
I agree with StormTrackerScott, there's going to a blocking high near Bermuda , in a few days , I can see this being a strong storm , or a hurricane , remember all this season needs to be real bad is a Phailin type of storm , to make 2013 a destructive season !


Lots of shear out in front of 98L so 98L is in for a tough road ahead but if 98L can survive then watch out as conditions will be favorable across the NE Caribbean in 5 to 7 days.
Quoting 273. MAweatherboy1:

It looks to have really slowed down or even stalled in the past couple hours.


Maybe to start a turn to the northwest as it should have for quite a while?
Should easily be able to peak @ 150 knots

The amount of ice crystals being picked up by MW imagery in the eyewall is something I haven't seen in years with a tropical cyclone.

Quoting 243. HurricaneAndre:
I see a renumber coming soon.


Why would you like that to happen?
Quoting 268. CybrTeddy:


If they're using a raw dvorak reading to determine intensity then I have honestly no words.


no they're not using the raw numbers, but the raw number showing weakening might be their indication that the storm would not be intensifying anymore as they stated in the 1730 PM IST advisory.
EP, 94, 2013101118, , BEST, 0, 144N, 1064W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Notice the ridge near Bermuda on the latest HWRF run

WOW!!!
Quoting 280. HadesGodWyvern:


no they're not using the raw numbers, but the raw number showing weakening might be their indication that the storm would not be intensifying anymore as they stated in the 1730 PM IST advisory.


But why use RAW T# to determine that? It said the same thing when Felix was exploding into a Category 5 in 2007, for example. Weakening and RD flags are "OFF" and the constraint limits is set to "NO LIMIT." Not only that, but the RAW T# just jumped to 7.1.
Very strong ridge on the 12Z Euro over Bermuda and building west toward the Mid Atlantic. Needless to say we in the US are far from done with tropical threats this year.

Quoting 257. Patrap:

Hate to be facing that today.
.
Quoting 279. tropicalgrilpr:


Why would you like that to happen?


If you live in PR,I have a weather blog where you can visit and post what is going on weatherwise in your area.

Puerto Rico/U.SVI Weather Blog

Closed.
290. NCstu
Quoting 274. g564841:
Hi again . Guys what is the current situation ? Its pouring rains and heavy winds . I'm in the capital of orissa , bhubaneswar I.e . Nobody is asleep lol.


There are millions of people in a lot of danger and there is an impending economic disaster that will devastate local infrastructure and set the area back for years.
Euro 168hrs 98L as a wave in the Bahamas moving west.

Quoting 279. tropicalgrilpr:


Why would you like that to happen?


He didn't say he would like it though.
Quoting 283. SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!


You can say that again! Perfect stadium effect of the eye.
Quoting 285. CybrTeddy:


But why use RAW T# to determine that? It said the same thing when Felix was exploding into a Category 5 in 2007, for example. Weakening and RD flags are "OFF" and the constraint limits is set to "NO LIMIT."


IMD must not have confidence what a cyclone would do with a sharp drop in the raw numbers then.

there has to be some reason they state it would make landfall of 115-120 knots, claim no more intensification is possible and keep the current wind speed of 105 knots for the advisory.
295. DDR
Hey guys is there any chance that 98L could make it to the islands?
Quoting 283. SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!


Looks really mean! scary...
Quoting 295. DDR:
Hey guys is there any chance that 98L could make it to the islands?


I hope that so badly xD
Invest 98L decent rotation

Quoting 295. DDR:
Hey guys is there any chance that 98L could make it to the islands?


Not as a numbered system, but possibly the remnants of it...
Quoting 283. SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!

Sauron's eye?
303. VR46L
Quoting 297. CaribBoy:


I hope that so badly xD


Didn't know that ....
Quoting 208. VR46L:


I believe its now called Climate change ....
If you believe, like I do, that Dr. Masters and his staff are intelligent, informed people who want to educate us...
Quoting the SkepticalScience website that is featured on WU by Dr. Masters to counter climate misinformation:

Climate Myth: They changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'

To to sum up, although the terms are used interchangeably because they are causally related, 'global warming' and 'climate change' refer to different physical phenomena. The term 'climate change' has been used frequently in the scientific literature for many decades, and the usage of both terms has increased over the past 40 years. Moreover, since the planet continues to warm, there is no reason to change the terminology.

Perhaps the only individual to advocate the change was Frank Luntz, a Republican political strategist and global warming skeptic, who used focus group results to determine that the term 'climate change' is less frightening to the general public than 'global warming'.


There is simply no factual basis whatsoever to the myth "they changed the name from global warming to climate change".
But shouldn't we really be talking about Cyclone Phailin and the other active named tropical storms now and be saving the AGW/CC stuff of later?
Quoting 283. SFLWeatherman:
WOW!!!



Beautiful, but that beauty comes with an enormous price.
306. VR46L
This is horrible

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
3:00 AM JST October 12 2013
======================================

Overland Luzon (Philippines)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nari (975 hPa) located at 15.7N 120.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.4N 115.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.9N 112.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.7N 110.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
308. VR46L
img src="">
309. VR46L
I knew it was gonna get me in trouble ... ya duck out for a while and still.......
310. NCstu
can anyone else confirm the 890 pressure claim? I can't find any other recent estimates but I'm a bit skeptical.
Quoting 310. NCstu:
can anyone else confirm the 890 pressure claim? I can't find any other recent estimates but I'm a bit skeptical.


that is just it.. there is no confirmation. these pressure are predetermined estimates based on Dvorak numbers.
'Catastrophic' cyclone heads for landfall in India
The storm could "erase most houses, crops and infrastructure."

A monstrous and potentially catastrophic cyclone is taking aim on India, with sustained winds estimated at about 161 mph as of Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This is equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane.

Gusts are as high as 190 mph.

The storm (named Phailin) is so large it fills nearly the entire Bay of Bengal, which is part of the Indian Ocean.

Officials ordered at least 40,000 coastal villagers to flee their homes Friday, and authorities plan to take another 100,000 people to safer areas before the cyclone hits.

The "effects to the Indian coast ... in terms of surge will be catastrophic, with the potential to erase most houses, crops and infrastructure," reported WeatherBell meteorologist Ryan Maue on his Twitter account.

Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in 14 years, when a fierce cyclone hit the east coast of India, killing almost 10,000 people, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground. USATODAY
Quoting NCstu:
can anyone else confirm the 890 pressure claim? I can't find any other recent estimates but I'm a bit skeptical.


Right here

Link


I really don't think that saying how much worse a part of Florida will fare in a Cat. 5 is the big issue. No one is ready for a solid Cat. 5 like Phailin. No matter what part of FL it hits or the building codes for that area, it is going to be a huge disaster.
Quoting 289. HurricaneAndre:

Closed.

That plot is created by a computer program that assumes there is a closed circulation. It extrapolates from mid-level observations to the surface assuming a closed surface circulation exists. You can read about it here. In fact, they assume the circulation is for a tropical cyclone.

"The main MTCSWA product is the estimation of the surface wind field around active tropical
cyclones."

If you don't have an "active tropical cyclone" then the plot is invalid, misleading.
Quoting 303. VR46L:


Didn't know that ....


Really!! Lol I don't believe you

WE better keep a eye on invest 98L
Quoting 318. bappit:

That plot is created by a computer program that assumes there is a closed circulation. It extrapolates from mid-level observations to the surface assuming a closed surface circulation exists. You can read about it here. In fact, they assume the circulation is for a tropical cyclone.

"The main MTCSWA product is the estimation of the surface wind field around active tropical
cyclones."

If you don't have an "active tropical cyclone" then the plot is invalid, misleading.

Thanks.
323. NCstu
Quoting 315. Stormchaser2007:


Right here

Link


so that easily blows away anything the Bay of Bengal has ever seen, and is lower than anything the North Atlantic has ever recorded? I really don't want that to be true.
Quoting 320. hurricanes2018:

WE better keep a eye on invest 98L

It's going to get sheared apart imo.
Quoting 320. hurricanes2018:

WE better keep a eye on invest 98L


HIGHLY UNRELIABLE MODELS!!! Haha lol I love unpredictable storms.
Quoting 323. NCstu:


so that easily blows away anything the Bay of Bengal has ever seen, and is lower than anything the North Atlantic has ever recorded? I really don't want that to be true.


Almost, but Gilbert was 888 and Wilma was 882.
327. VR46L
Quoting 319. CaribBoy:


Really!! Lol I don't believe you


;)
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND HOLD
THROUGH MONDAY. THEN...A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
THE REST OF TODAY. AS A RESULT...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATED DRY
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT HAS COMBINED
WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN LIFT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A BUILDING MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. THIS RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL FAVOR MID-
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE EROSION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN PR IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. FOR MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL AMPLIFY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION...DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...
WE DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY STRONG/INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. TIMING MAY CHANGE...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

B-O-R-I-N-G
OMG?? WOW!!
Phailin is likely the strongest tropical cyclone ever measured in the North Indian Ocean.
India is gonna get a beating :(
Oh my! Praying for India. I have a friend here whose family still lives in Bengal. I will visit her tonight and hug her! :(
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Phailin is likely the strongest tropical cyclone ever measured in the North Indian Ocean.


And the strongest from all the basins in 2013 right?
Seems the NOAA ADT site under New Delhi Link is using the Dvorak CI#/pressure relationship for the NW Pacific, while under Bay of Bengal is using the CI#/pressure relationship for the Atlantic.


WMO Powerpoint from RSMC New Delhi indicates they are closer to the Atlantic CI#/pressure.

Based on that I would tend to discount the 898 pressure.
My guess is that Phailin's direct death toll won't be as high as that from similar storms in the past due to greater internet coverage; in 1999, the Indian web was in its infancy, but since then usage has grown by leaps and bounds. With that in mind, it's not likely many living in the affected areas will be caught off guard. However, that might be small consolation in the end; given the size and strength of the storm, the loss of farmland, shelter, and critical, often unstable infrastructure will pose yet another humanitarian crisis that may linger. Disease will increase; access to adequate food and water will be diminished. So please be ready with your pocketbooks; help will be needed.
Quoting 334. Tropicsweatherpr:


And the strongest from all the basins in 2013 right?

No doubt about it yes.
HMM.. intensity chart from IMD has winds about 115-120 knots with gusts of 130 knots.. but in the article no mention of it intensifying as it moved west northwestward like it normally would.
This is history in the making. One the strongest storms in history is going to make land fall. Looks to strengthen until landfall and land as a sub 900mb storm with winds sustained at between 175-185mph at least. Just an insanely beautiful harbinger of doom. At least India has been rushing to evacuate the entire low lying coast areas in Phailin's path. Praying for these folks who are in for one really scary next 24hrs.
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Phailin is likely the strongest tropical cyclone ever measured in the North Indian Ocean.


Doubt anything that low will ever be recognized by the IMD, 940mb right now by them.
2013OCT11 190000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF
Now down to 886.6mb and 149 knots

2013OCT11 190000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6

We'll see what the JTWC says...
The IMD has been beyond horrific with their handling of Phailin.

Especially with that call that this won't become a Super Cyclonic Storm
Quoting 343. Stormchaser2007:
Now down to 886.6mb and 149 knots

2013OCT11 190000 7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6

We'll see what the JTWC says...


18z Best Track by JTWC at 140kts and 918 mbs.

02B PHAILIN 131011 1800 16.9N 87.1E IO 140 918
Wish we can have a recon in there... or for each Category 5 in all basins (like three times a year). Too bad you got to be trained to fly a plane into a hurricane or have a special type of plane so you can't really ask other countries to form their own squad of hunters.
Quoting 328. WxGeekVA:




Aren't storms supposed to be going west to east up there this time of year?
Quoting 344. Stormchaser2007:
The IMD has been beyond horrific with their handling of Phailin.

Especially with that call that this won't become a Super Cyclonic Storm


The IMD is generally an incompetent forecasting agency, Cyclone Giri in 2010 for example.
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Phailin is likely the strongest tropical cyclone ever measured in the North Indian Ocean.


Glad that isn't in the GOM. Sorry to see it in the Indian Ocean though.

Thoughts and prayers to those in Phailin's path. I have a bad feeling Portlight is going to be a little busy with this one.
351. NCstu
Quoting 339. Tribucanes:
This is history in the making. One the strongest storms in history is going to make land fall. Looks to strengthen until landfall and land as a sub 900mb storm with winds sustained at between 175-185mph at least. Just an insanely beautiful harbinger of doom. At least India has been rushing to evacuated the entire low lying coast areas in Phailin's path. Praying for these folks who are in for one really scary next 24hrs.


I feel like I'm watching a huge bomb drop in slow motion. I imagine a lake superior size bucket of water being slowly poured over an area the size of Texas... it's really sad =(
Quoting 348. CybrTeddy:


The IMD is generally an incompetent forecasting agency, Cyclone Giri in 2010 for example.

Yep... Giri was an absolute monster at landfall. Probably near, or at category 5 intensity.
353. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:


I hope that so badly xD

I know you won't mine if it parked right you lmao
Cyclone Phailin is set to become the strongest India has ever seen
By Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus 35 minutes ago

With landfall in less than 24 hours (Saturday Oct. 12 in the afternoon, India time), final preparations are underway in India for Cyclone Phailin—now officially the strongest storm ever measured in the Indian Ocean. The image above shows the storm’s core as it approaches the coastline. (See our earlier coverage on why Phailin’s landfall in this particularly volatile part of India is especially unwelcome.) ...

Phailin is now forecast to break the Indian Ocean intensity record set by the 1999 Cyclone just prior to its Saturday landfall, according to the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. ...

Even if Phailin doesn’t manage to hold the intensity record, the storm surge will be immense. An American specialist, Hal Needham, wrote on his personal blog that recent research shows that the strength of a storm 18 hours before landfall is the best predictor of its peak storm surge. In India and Bangladesh, where so many live only a few meters above sea level, the sheer size of Phailin nearly guarantees that hundreds of thousands of homes will be inundated. A storm surge of 1 to 3 meters could extend for hundreds of kilometers northeast of where the storm makes landfall. In short, Phailin is a humanitarian disaster in the making. ...


Whole article see link above.
Quoting 350. Dakster:


Glad that isn't in the GOM. Sorry to see it in the Indian Ocean though.

Thoughts and prayers to those in Phailin's path. I have a bad feeling Portlight is going to be a little busy with this one.


Let's not forget Nari that is lashing the Phillipines and we could have a similar disaster and Portlight go there too.
Quoting 345. Tropicsweatherpr:


18z Best Track by JTWC at 140kts and 918 mbs.

02B PHAILIN 131011 1800 16.9N 87.1E IO 140 918


That makes Phailin the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone in the North Indian basin, tied with the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone.
Wipha has been upgraded

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WIPHA (T1326)
3:00 AM JST October 12 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Wipha (985 hPa) located at 15.7N 139.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in south quadrant
240 NM from the center in north quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.7N 137.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.9N 135.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 23.0N 134.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
358. NCstu
"It is well that hurricanes are so terrible, or we should grow too fond of them"

-Robert E. Lee
Quoting 355. Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's not forget Nari that is lashing the Phillipines and we could have a similar disasted Portlight go there too.


Good point and with Nari, people might actually be left alive to treat. I'm not so sure if a 880mb strong Cat 5 roars ashore there will be much left. Not too many places have building codes strong enough for that.

Either way, godspeed to those in either storms path.
Quoting 344. Stormchaser2007:
The IMD has been beyond horrific with their handling of Phailin.

Especially with that call that this won't become a Super Cyclonic Storm


They're avoiding marking the system at 6.5 to be upgraded to Super Cyclonic Storm.

That confirmation is all it needs to become one.

6.5 is 130 knots to IMD.
Don't forget, this storm will cause inland problems too.
Quoting 351. NCstu:


I feel like I'm watching a huge bomb drop in slow motion. I imagine a lake superior size bucket of water being slowly poured over an area the size of Texas... it's really sad =(

Are there any webcams in this part of india, that would be interesting to see.
The Hindustan Times is reporting that Phailin may be much stronger than the IMD is reporting. The word 'lakh' in the article means 100,000.


Live: lakhs flee as 'severe' cyclone Phailin fear grips Odisha, Andhra

From the article

Super cyclone?

Disagreement arose over the power packed by Phailin, although most forecasters expected it to weaken upon reaching the coast.

The Met department described it as a "very severe cyclonic storm" with wind speeds of 210-220 km per hour and resisted upgrading it to a stronger "super cyclone."

But the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre predicted gusts of up to 315 kmph. London-based storm tracking service Tropical Storm Risk said Phailin was a super cyclone and placed it in the most intense Category 5 of powerful storms, evoking memories of the devastating 1999 storm when wind reaching speeds of 300 kmph winds battered Odisha for 30 hours.

Some forecasters likened its size and intensity to that of hurricane Katrina, which devastated the US Gulf coast and New Orleans in 2005.

Mohapatra agreed "Phailin will be no less than the 1999 super cyclone".
Incredible

Quoting 336. Neapolitan:
My guess is that Phailin's direct death toll won't be as high as that from similar storms in the past due to greater internet coverage; in 1999, the Indian web was in its infancy, but since then usage has grown by leaps and bounds. With that in mind, it's not likely many living in the affected areas will be caught off guard. However, that might be small consolation in the end; given the size and strength of the storm, the loss of farmland, shelter, and critical, often unstable infrastructure will pose yet another humanitarian crisis that may linger. Disease will increase; access to adequate food and water will be diminished. So please be ready with your pocketbooks; help will be needed.

Whilst understanding and appreciating everything that Nea is implying here, the effects of this cyclone will be much further reaching than the storm itself.
India is a country with a population well over I,270 million, or 4 times that of the USA. Their land area is about 4 times that of Texas!
Any loss of anything will be massively significant and in a county where space is not only scarce but in some case non existent the last things people need is loss of livelihood.
Poverty is rife and wealth is usually sealed up in well guarded areas.
The effects of this storm will bring a lot of economic casualties as well as direct victims, the eventual human toll of this unfolding tragedy will be a lot higher than what is to us" immediately apparent.
As Cyclone Phailin advances, Odisha coast being evacuated
Indo-Asian News Service | Updated: October 12, 2013 00:20 IST
Bhubaneswar: Odisha has launched a massive drive to evacuate coastal villages as the severe cyclonic storm Phailin advanced from the Bay of Bengal. Phailin is expected to make a landfall this evening.
The state government has planned to evacuate about a half million people along the coast.
"We have so far moved two lakh people to safer places, the remaining would be shifted late today (Friday) night", a senior disaster management department official told IANS on Friday. ...



I have no words. This is going to be a disater unlike any other. Is there any confrimation of the 886 mb reading yet?
Phailin continues to remain a very intense tropical cyclone nearing landfall along the East Coast of India.
Quoting 364. Stormchaser2007:
Incredible

The biggest stories of October 11, 2013
NDTV news report video, published On: October 11, 2013 | Duration: 15 min, 24 sec
Bhubaneswar: Odisha has launched a massive drive to evacuate coastal villages as the severe cyclonic storm Phailin advanced from the Bay of Bengal. Phailin is expected to make a landfall this evening. The state government has planned to evacuate about a half million people along the coast. "We have so far moved two lakh people to safer places, the remaining would be shifted late today (Friday) night", a senior disaster management department official told IANS on Friday. ...

Have to believe (or pray) that this is a typo of some kind; 1/2 a million to try to evacuate on only "two lakh people" so far.........Hopefully this is a group of "lakh" people in a village or klan and not just two individuals.

Any insight on this one one from any Bloggers would be appreciated as I know very little about that part of the world.
Quoting 372. weathermanwannabe:
Hopefully this is a group of "lakh" people in a village or klan and not just two individuals.


"Lakh" = 100.000

From Wiki:
A lakh (also lac; abbreviated L) is a unit in the South Asian numbering system equal to one hundred thousand (100,000; Scientific notation: 105), written as 1,00,000. It is widely used both in official and other contexts in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It is often used in Indian, Pakistani and Sri Lankan English. In Pakistan, they do not use South Asian numbering system in English but only in Urdu and other regional languages.
373. barbamz 3:45 PM EDT on October 11, 2013

Thank You.......... Numbering reference; 200,000 evacuated at the time of this report. Hope they can get the rest out in time.
Buzz saw in route to India. I bet winds are sustained at 180 right now.

377. VR46L
Quoting 374. Ameister12:


Ok you are a html king .... how did you post an animated loop of RAMMB Imagery ?
Lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in a storm?
Quoting 375. weathermanwannabe:
373. barbamz 3:45 PM EDT on October 11, 2013

Thank You.......... Numbering reference; 200,000 evacuated at the time of this report. Hope they can get the rest out in time.


Welcome. Next unit seems to be "crore" (= ten millions). I don't hope they'll have to use it in reference to Phailin (although I've somewhere read something of half a crore already today)

Wiki
A crore (/ˈkrɔər/; abbreviated cr) is a unit in the South Asian numbering system equal to ten million (10,000,000; Scientific notation: 107), which is written as 1,00,00,000, equal to a hundred lakh (lakh is written as 1,00,000). It is widely used in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka. In Pakistan, the South Asian numbering system is used in Hindi, Bengali, Urdu, Nepali, and Sinhalese, but not in English.
380. NCstu
Quoting 378. congaline:
Lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in a storm?


Typhoon Tip wins. At least that storm had the courtesy of not affecting hundreds of millions of people.
I remember when Ivan was in the Gulf and the NHC was detecting a 90 foot wave moving toward the Panhandle.


.
Quoting 378. congaline:
Lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in a storm?


870 mb in Typhoon Tip. There was a cyclone off northern Australia in 2006 (I think its name was Monica) that had a satellite estimated pressure of 868 mb but for a record to count you need a direct measurement from the surface.
Quoting 377. VR46L:


Ok you are a html king .... how did you post an animated loop of RAMMB Imagery ?


However he did it ... loop is clearly showing the turn to the north now, IMHO.
I know the RAMMB page is often inaccurate, but wow, look at that pressure estimate!

Quoting CaribBoy:


I hope that so badly xD
If it survives the shear, ,and recovered, maybe we can get a TD or a weak TS...
some of those evacuated may not be safe .. if you read the statement it says they were evacuated to safer places .. not a safe place ..

"Bhubaneswar: Odisha has launched a massive drive to evacuate coastal villages as the severe cyclonic storm Phailin advanced from the Bay of Bengal. Phailin is expected to make a landfall this evening. The state government has planned to evacuate about a half million people along the coast. "We have so far moved two lakh people to safer places, the remaining would be shifted late today (Friday) night", a senior disaster management department official told IANS on Friday". ...
Quoting 380. NCstu:


Typhoon Tip wins. At least that storm had the courtesy of not affecting hundreds of millions of people.

What was the reading?
Quoting 384. barbamz:


However he did it ... loop is clearly showing the turn to the north now, IMHO.

With those trochoidal oscillations the overall direction of motion is harder to decipher.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
20:30 PM IST October 11 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over West Central And Adjoining East Central Bay Of Bengal:

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 15:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over west central and adjoining east central Bay of
Bengal moved west northwestwards and lays near 16.9N 87.2E, about 380 km south southeast of Paradip, 360 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 360 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) later Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 115-120 knots.

3 minutes sustained winds near the center is 105 knots with gusts of 120. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. Phailin central pressure is 938 hPa

Storm Surge Guidance:

Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 meters. above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall
98L is getting that look as well. I am impressed with this invest on how large it is and how it is really fighting off the shear. I would watch this one closely!!

392. NCstu
Quoting 388. congaline:

What was the reading?


870
Quoting 389. bappit:

With those trochoidal oscillations the overall direction of motion is harder to decipher.


Wow, "trochoidal oscillations". Of course I concurr, after reading in dear Wiki:

Trochoid is the word created by Gilles de Roberval for the curve described by a fixed point as a circle rolls along a straight line. As a circle of radius a rolls without slipping along a line L, the center C moves parallel to L, and every other point P in the rotating plane rigidly attached to the circle traces the curve called the trochoid.



Means "wobbling" in WU-language, lol.
98L defying all odds! Imagine what this will look like once the shear lets up in 3 to 5 days.

I am wondering now who would be considered or willing to be "first" responders from an international aid standpoint in that part of the world......The US has routinely provided assistance in the Caribbean (Haiti comes to mind after the earthquake).

I would hope that England (the former colony issue) or China (also a player in the region) will be the first to get in there with assistance and supplies as needed.

They will need lots of immediate aid in the aftermath and I hope the Indian Military is large enough to sustain and marshal air rescue resources much like our Coast Guard in the after-math of Katrina.
Quoting 392. NCstu:


870

Here is the wikiepdia page for Tip; also was appearantly recorded on October 12th,
Link
Indian numbering system

sahasra = 1,000
das hazar = 10,000
lakh = 100,000
das lakh 1,000,000
crore = 10,000,000
das crore = 100,000,000
arab = 1,000,000,000
Quoting 395. barbamz:


Means "wobbling" in WU-language, lol.

Cool gif. But implies a specific kind of wobbling. In the northern hemisphere, the wobbles veer off to the north and then come back--as if your gif were running in reverse. So hard to say the storm has turned north if it may have just wobbled that way.
Quoting 395. barbamz:


Wow, "trochoidal oscillations". Of course I concurr, after reading in dear Wiki:

Trochoid is the word created by Gilles de Roberval for the curve described by a fixed point as a circle rolls along a straight line. As a circle of radius a rolls without slipping along a line L, the center C moves parallel to L, and every other point P in the rotating plane rigidly attached to the circle traces the curve called the trochoid.



Means "wobbling" in WU-language, lol.


Is Phailin really moving trochoidially? With smooth curves focusing on saw-tooth points?
Quoting 391. StormTrackerScott:
98L is getting that look as well. I am impressed with this invest on how large it is and how it is really fighting off the shear. I would watch this one closely!!



xD xD
Quoting 377. VR46L:


Ok you are a html king .... how did you post an animated loop of RAMMB Imagery ?

It's very simple. I just got some archive images from the RAMMB site and with those images, made a gif from a "gif-maker" website. :-)
Quoting 391. StormTrackerScott:
98L is getting that look as well. I am impressed with this invest on how large it is and how it is really fighting off the shear. I would watch this one closely!!


Why? It's not going to be a concern to anybody.
98 looks like a massive rainstorm
A few blubs from Wiki on the Indian Military; looks like they have some resources to work with and that Russia is a close ally:

They consist of the Army, Navy and Air Force supported by Paramilitary forces[9] (Indian Coast Guard,

With a combined strength of over 4.7 million personnel, it is world's 4th largest military force.

IAF has maintained close military relations with Russia, including cooperative development on programs such as the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and the Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA

the helicopter fleet of Westland Sea King and the Sikorsky SH-3 Sea King operate from INS Garuda (Kochi) as well as INS Kunjali-II (Mumbai) air stations. 56 more naval utility helicopters are planned to be inducted from 2016. for surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, electronic intelligence gathering and search and rescue operations

The IAF has initiated the process for acquisition of additional Mi-17 IV helicopters, heavy lift helicopters, Advanced Light Helicopter and Light Combat Helicopters.

The Coast Guard also operates a fleet of 38 Dornier Do 228 maritime surveillance aircraft, 9 HAL Dhruv and 18 HAL Chetak utility helicopters. They patrol the seas and river mouths. The coast guard has performed a number of commendable tasks of rescuing distressed personnel.


Sounds to me like they are in the process of modernizing and might need more helicopters (from third-parties) to assist with search and rescue in the coming week.
Quoting 408. islander101010:
98 looks like a massive rainstorm


I'm waiting for it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
98L is getting that look as well. I am impressed with this invest on how large it is and how it is really fighting off the shear. I would watch this one closely!!

I'm glad you are watching it , seems that everybody moved to India...
12Z EURO moves 98L very close to the N Leewards xD
StormTrackerScott, I agree that 98L is getting that look, not far at all from a TD. Has a huge area of moisture to fight off that shear. Tonight is the last night for this to spin up before it gets sheared to pieces though. 98L is going to be very short lived TD if it does become one. Interesting the models are showing a WSW component after this moves just north of the Antilles. Still think the models have very little grasp of the track. Could defy, and stay organized through the shear wall and be a real surprise in four or five days. Has been south of the projected path since it's inception, wouldn't be surprised if that continues.
does any one know how high the tide is along the coast line and when high tide will be ??
The lower the MB's the worse the storm or the stronger the storm?
Quoting 415. DanAlabama:
The lower the MB's the worse the storm or the stronger the storm?

Yep. The lower the pressure is, the stronger the storm is. Stronger storms obviously tend to be more destructive.
Quoting 415. DanAlabama:
The lower the MB's the worse the storm or the stronger the storm?


Both.
I am sorry for all of the path of the storm hope they stay safe.
Quoting 414. whitewabit:
does any one know how high the tide is along the coast line and when high tide will be ??


Maybe this helps?
Weather fascinates me and of course I don't wish destruction on anyone or anything. However, I'd love to be able to view the entire scene off the coast of India about right now. I can only imagine what the water would look like out in the Bay.
Oh boy. The JTWC latest warning has landfall intensity at 145kts.

Quoting 423. Tropicsweatherpr:
Oh boy. The JTWC latest warning has landfall intensity at 145kts.


Would that make it the strongest landfalling storm in Indian history?
Whoa

Quoting 423. Tropicsweatherpr:
Oh boy. The JTWC latest warning has landfall intensity at 145kts.

Wow...
Quoting 420. barbamz:


Maybe this helps?


Thanks .. so the tide height is about 2 - 2 1/2 feet ..
428. SLU
As far as "supercanes" go, it doesn't get much better (worse) than this:

Quoting 428. SLU:
As far as "supercanes" go, it doesn't get much better (worse) than this:


Honestly, I think this puts even Usagi to shame
Latest satellite imagery of 98L shows it right at the threshold of TD status. Developing a CDO and this is by far the best its ever looked. Upgrade to 70-80% at the next update?
Quoting 418. jcxt:
Tides link

http://www.tidetime.org/asia/india/paradwip-india -calendar.htm


And for real time monitoring Link This link is for the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System, but it has multiple real time tide gauges for India. Depending on the exact location of landfall, this may provide some really interesting data.
432. SLU
This is a really poor quality radar

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why? It's not going to be a concern to anybody.
I think the northern Islands and should watch this system closer, it reminds me of hurricane Jose, October 17, 1999...
434. SLU
Quoting 429. Stormlover16:

Honestly, I think this puts even Usagi to shame


In the same league as some of the most impressive (dangerous) hurricanes in our era.
Phailin is an amazing, impressive, classic storm. So afraid that this storm is going to cause massive damage and loss of life death.
For those on the blog lamenting the "busted" 2013 Atlantic season, I am thankful we did not get one like this! And hope we never do get another like Katrina and Andrew just to mention a couple of killer storms. Prayers for all of those in the path of Phailin.
Cyclone Phailin Forces Thousands to Flee Eastern India

Excerpt:

Phailin sent at least 64,000 people fleeing from their homes and forced ships out of its path, and is expected to cause crop and infrastructure damage. Twenty-six of the world’s 35 deadliest tropical cyclones, the storms that include hurricanes and typhoons, have occurred in the Bay of Bengal, according to Jeff Masters, founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Strike Strength
“It’s going to cause pretty complete devastation on the coast where it hits,” Masters said by telephone. The storm weakened slightly as it grew larger but had begun to strengthen. Masters said it was likely Phailin would lose some strength before going ashore, probably in the Odisha region, as the equivalent of a Category 4 storm, the second-strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Just how strong is Phailin? I know we can only go off satellite estimates, but with a sub 900mb and one of the best satellite appearances I can ever remember seeing this looks like it could be anywhere from a 175-200mph storm right now.
Quoting 429. Stormlover16:

Honestly, I think this puts even Usagi to shame


Usagi:


Phailin:


Close but not there yet.
This is roughly the airspeed of a 747 as it approaches the strip to land.

Having had the opportunity to be up close to this and feel the speed and pressure it is very impressive. Imagine that but with huge weather that keeps coming.

Absolutely destruction will occur soon.

God bless those poor people and their land.
If it actually makes landfall at this intensity, I fear surge could be even worse. This cyclone is incredibly powerful and I feel sick thinking about the results if it impacts the coast at this intensity.

My family also sponsors a child who lives on the coast near the region of projected path :/
Quoting 423. Tropicsweatherpr:
Oh boy. The JTWC latest warning has landfall intensity at 145kts.


Quoting 424. Stormlover16:

Would that make it the strongest landfalling storm in Indian history?


If that pans out, it'll be the strongest landfalling cyclone to hit India in terms of wind speed, surpassing the current record of 155 mph from the 1999 Odisha cyclone.
Wipha may be a threat to Japan.

Afternoon all.

Any TRMM for this storm so far? That would be quite illuminating...

EDIT: I mean Phailin.
Sorry to hear that.

From Jedkins01:


My family also sponsors a child who lives on the coast near the region of projected path :/
Quoting 402. bappit:

Cool gif. But implies a specific kind of wobbling. In the northern hemisphere, the wobbles veer off to the north and then come back--as if your gif were running in reverse. So hard to say the storm has turned north if it may have just wobbled that way.


Eye wall of violent tropical cyclones do frequently wobble around, similar to the way a spinning top does, although the science is obviously more complex than that.
Quoting 443. BahaHurican:
Afternoon all.

Any TRMM for this storm so far? That would be quite illuminating...



Quoting 438. hurricanehunter27:


Usagi:


Phailin:


Close but not there yet.
Quoting 441. Civicane49:



If that pans out, it'll be the strongest landfalling cyclone to hit India in terms of wind speed, surpassing the current record of 155 mph from the 1999 Odisha cyclone.

hurricanehunter27 thanks for those images, absolutely beautiful destruction. And Civicane49, thank you as well, I've done a bit of research but couldn't find anything stronger than the Odisha storm. I read somewhere this is the strongest storm ever in the north indian ocean, and that this will be the first cat-5 in modern indian history
11/2030 UTC 17.2N 86.8E T7.0/7.0 PHAILIN
Flooding has/is occuring right now in the D.C area.Their are huge puddles on the side of my street and some low lying roads are flooded making them unsafe.Looks like the rain is here to stay for a good while through most part of the weekend.

Meanwhile here comes the "we've never seen a storm like this in out life time" comments.
Imagine if tropical cyclones never underwent EWRC's...Phailin would easily be a 180kt hypercane at this point.
Quoting 450. MiamiHurricanes09:
Imagine if tropical cyclones never underwent EWRC's...Phailin would easily be a 180kt hypercane at this point.
I believe it will be very close to those winds... No matter how much warning they have, this will be a very destructive an fatal storm.
Quoting 449. washingtonian115:
Flooding has/is occuring right now in the D.C area.Their are huge puddles on the side of my street and some low lying roods are flooded making them unsafe.Looks like the rain is here to stay for a good while through most part of the weekend.

Meanwhile here comes the "we've never seen a storm like this in out life time" comments.

Washi, here in south Delaware it's even worse. Probably the worst wind since Saturn hit in March (that storm was crazy) and flooding is horrid in coastal areas. Homecoming has been posteponed, unfortunately :(
Wow

Quoting Tribucanes:
Latest satellite imagery of 98L shows it right at the threshold of TD status. Developing a CDO and this is by far the best its ever looked. Upgrade to 70-80% at the next update?
agree, but knowing them, they won't raised their numbers just yet...
Quoting Stormlover16:

hurricanehunter27 thanks for those images, absolutely beautiful destruction. And Civicane49, thank you as well, I've done a bit of research but couldn't find anything stronger than the Odisha storm. I read somewhere this is the strongest storm ever in the north indian ocean, and that this will be the first cat-5 in modern indian history

You can't have met want you wrote. Destruction is never beautiful. Those satellite images are impressive, awe-inspiring, and even beautiful in their own way, but the destruction these storms cause is never beautiful.
Quoting 451. PalmBeachWeather:
I believe it will be very close to those winds... No matter how much warning they have, this will be a very destructive an fatal storm.
180kt? I don't know that is really stretching it if you are talking about sustained winds. 180kt = 207 mph. I believe it would be the fastest sustained winds for a cyclone anywhere ever. Regardless if it is anywhere near that speed at landfall nothing but splinters would be left.
Quoting 397. weathermanwannabe:
I am wondering now who would be considered or willing to be "first" responders from an international aid standpoint in that part of the world......The US has routinely provided assistance in the Caribbean (Haiti comes to mind after the earthquake).

I would hope that England (the former colony issue) or China (also a player in the region) will be the first to get in there with assistance and supplies as needed.

They will need lots of immediate aid in the aftermath and I hope the Indian Military is large enough to sustain and marshal air rescue resources much like our Coast Guard in the after-math of Katrina.


I have no doubt at all in my mind that the International Red Cross, amongst others, are monitoring Phailin very closely and also likely that they may have warned off some Countries that provide Assessment Teams and global response Emergency Response Units to be ready for rapid deployment. However, anyone who has been involved in such Humanitarian Relief knows that getting there is one thing - establishing an effective in country operation (with all attendant infrastructure and resources is quite another - it is not like turning on a tap for instant water. In the first instance, immediate response will have to come from Indian Govt, Indian Red Cross and those Indian based NGOs who may have Warehouses of materials strategically located around India.

I am also sure that if this turns out to be the disaster that all indicators say it will be, that IMHO any British Red Cross Appeal for Funds for the Disaster Relief will be massively and rapidly supported.

It should also be clearly understood that organisations such as Red Cross have to be invited into the Country - they cannot just appear out of the blue!
Good afternoon everyone, well looks like our greatest fears are about to be realized with Phailin, man if you believe in God this would be the best time to say a prayer for the people of India whose lives will likely change forever from this storm. All I can say is best of luck to the people over there, hopefully you have put yourself out of harms way and have found higher ground away from the path of this storm. Just always remember your possessions can be replaced, your life cannot be replaced. This situation reminds me so much of Hurricane Katrina, perhaps even worst than that.
Typhoon 02B Cyclone PHAILIN

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2013 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 17:08:27 N Lon : 86:54:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -15.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.5 degrees


Quoting 455. sar2401:

You can't have met want you wrote. Destruction is never beautiful. Those satellite images are impressive, awe-inspiring, and even beautiful in their own way, but the destruction these storms cause is never beautiful.

That is not the way I meant it. Though this thing is clearly a disaster of apocalyptic proportions, it most certainly is beautiful. As William Blake said in his "The Tyger", Phailin has "fearful symmetry." Destruction is not beautiful, but this storm certainly is.
Quoting 452. Stormlover16:

Washi, here in south Delaware it's even worse. Probably the worst wind since Saturn hit in March (that storm was crazy) and flooding is horrid in coastal areas. Homecoming has been posteponed, unfortunately :(
My son has his after school activities canceled.The wind isn't bad here in D.C though,but it is noticable...
Quoting 462. washingtonian115:
My son has his after school activities canceled.The wind isn't bad here in D.C though,but it is noticable...

How long has it been raining in DC?

New model tracks for landfall of Phailin.
Quoting 447. Stormlover16:

hurricanehunter27 thanks for those images, absolutely beautiful destruction. And Civicane49, thank you as well, I've done a bit of research but couldn't find anything stronger than the Odisha storm. I read somewhere this is the strongest storm ever in the north indian ocean, and that this will be the first cat-5 in modern indian history


There you go :)

List of the most intense tropical cyclones - Wikipedia
Quoting 463. Stormlover16:

How long has it been raining in DC?
Since Wednesday.
467. NCstu
Anyone know current central pressure?
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt
Quoting 467. NCstu:
Anyone know current central pressure?

Without recon? No. Satellite estimates range from the mid-880s (millibars) to the low-900s.
471. VR46L
Quoting 405. Ameister12:

It's very simple. I just got some archive images from the RAMMB site and with those images, made a gif from a "gif-maker" website. :-)


That is really clever! Thanks for telling your secret !

Sorry for appearing rude and not returning the comment until now .... I was otherwize detained :)


Looks like the core of the storm (Phailin) is starting to move onshore but it will take several hours for the eye wall to cross the coast......It's downhill from here on out anywhere near the core. Very large swatch of coast from what we can see.....Unimaginable what must be starting to happen on the ground.
Quoting 472. weathermanwannabe:
Looks like the core of the storm (Phailin) is starting to move onshore but it will take several hours for the eye wall to cross the coast......It's downhill from here on out anywhere near the core. Very large swatch of coast from what we can see.....Unimaginable what must be starting to happen on the ground.
I've been through 3 nasty hurricanes, and one very terrible tornado...These people ,prepared or not, are going to go through hell....
I wonder how an evac is done when almost no one has cars. Do they walk everyone out?
Cyclone Phailin set to batter Odisha, Andhra Pradesh today

Touching wind speeds of 210-220 km an hour, Cyclone Phailin is set to hit the Odisha coast between Paradip and Kalingapatnam with full fury on Saturday evening, whipping up a storm surge up to 10 feet above the tide level posing a threat to low-lying villages.

Anticipating the cyclone's fury, the state government began Odisha's biggest ever evacuation of shifting more than three lakh people out of harm's way as chief minister Naveen Patnaik promised there would be zero casualties. The evacuation is expected to be complete by Saturday morning.

Met sources said the cyclone's exact landfall is likely to be around the popular beach destination of Gopalpur and coastal Odisha as well as inland areas are expected to receive heavy rainfall likely to last till Sunday.

Although the Met is not categorizing Phailin as a "super cyclone" as it is yet to cross the 220 kmph barrier, there is little doubt that Odisha was bracing for a battering with the storm reported just 400 km south east of Gopalpur at 9pm on Friday.

Foreign agencies claimed Indian authorities are underestimating Phailin, quoting London-based Tropical Storm and US Navy's joint typhoon warning centre as forecasting winds up to 315 kmph. Indian agencies, however, said wind speeds are much lower.

As many as 80,000-90,000 people have already been evacuated from the coast in Odisha, and an equal number are expected to be moved out before the Phailin landfall. Andhra Pradesh too has evacuated 65,000 people so far.

Not leaving anything to chance, the state government began evacuating people from coastal districts of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada. Those who refused to leave their homes were forcibly taken to safer places. "There are 247 cyclone shelters and 10,000 concrete schools identified to house the villagers. We want to complete the evacuation by Saturday morning, particularly in Ganjam district which is likely to bear the brunt of the cyclone," special relief commissioner P K Mohapatra said.

Full story here: Times of India

---------------------------------

A google maps photo of the coastal town of Gopalpur:

Serious mistakes in underestimating this beast - the Indian WS has blown predictions badly and should have learned to err on the side of caution.
The impact zone is going to be badly hit but also the entire heartland of India stands to be seriously impacted by the huge amount of moisture going inland on top of a record monsoon season which is only just finishing off now, which is very late in the year.
This is beyond very serious in its implications.
NOAA surface weather is showing 886mb for the last 2.5 hours - Link
I doubt that is spot on accurate but the pressure is sinister at that scale. This beast could hit as a cat 5 - currently sitting on 7.3 CI!! Yikes.
I hope there is a major evacuation going on - but the losses are still going to be immense in such a populated part of the world.
Quoting 450. MiamiHurricanes09:
Imagine if tropical cyclones never underwent EWRC's...Phailin would easily be a 180kt hypercane at this point.


Those are called annular Hurricanes, which Phailin, thankfully, is not one.
Quoting 474. DonnieBwkGA:
I wonder how an evac is done when almost no one has cars. Do they walk everyone out?
No idea Donnie...I'm sure it's nothing like an evacuation here in the states. Scary
479. bwi
I wish Dr. M would post a more detailed analysis of possible storm surge. The headline for on the WU main page is saying a "... Could be Packing a 10-Foot Storm Surge", but I would have to assume that this storm is powerful enough to push water a lot higher than that if the coastal topography was a certain way.
ReliefWEB is watching the Cyclone to be able to respond post storm


Huge cyclone bears down on India
Huge cyclone bears down on India

REPORTfrom Agence France-Presse Published on 11 Oct 2013
Print

Email
10/11/2013 14:29 GMT

BHUBANESWAR, October 11, 2013 (AFP) - A "very severe" cyclone gathered pace as it bore down on India's east coast Friday where the military mobilised to help evacuation efforts and panicked locals recalled a devastating storm in 1999.

The air force sent teams to assist local disaster agencies moving people out of the path of Cyclone Phailin, expected to make landfall early on Saturday evening accompanied by a storm surge of up to three metres (10 feet).

The storm was "a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kilometres an hour (130-140 mph)", the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said as it upgraded its warnings on Friday.

"The storm has high damage potential, considering the windspeed," IMD director general Laxman Singh Rathore told a press conference, saying it was on the cusp of being upgraded to a super-cyclone, the most powerful form.

Satellite pictures showed an intimidating cloud mass churning across the Bay of Bengal, but weather forecasters said the danger zone was about 150 kilometres (90 miles) wide and would affect coastal Orissa and neighbouring Andhra Pradesh state.

In Orissa's state capital Bhubaneswar, where rain had begun to fall and trees were bending in powerful winds, panic buying saw many shops stripped of food, with memories still strong of the 1999 storm which killed more than 8,000.

"I'm feeling scared and tense. My son is expected to arrive Sunday. Now I think he won't make it," housewife Manjushree Das told AFP.

A major port on the east coast in Paradip said it had ceased all operations and would be shutting down, while local fishermen were ordered to return to the coast and seek shelter.

Tens of thousands of people were being evacuated from their homes in the areas expected to be worst affected around the town of Gopalpur where Phailin is expected to come ashore.

Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik wrote to the defence ministry appealing for help, saying that "despite preparedness by the state government, the impact of a very severe cyclonic storm requires support of the defence forces".

The air force who assisted with relief efforts after massive flooding in the Himalayas in June, said two emergency teams had been dispatched to Bhubaneswar while transport planes and helicopters are on standby.

The army and navy have been instructed to be prepared to assist the National Disaster Response Force, a statement from the defence ministry said.

The cyclone, currently about 400 kilometres (310 miles) off the coast, has strengthened dramatically in recent days as it heads for an impoverished part of India dotted with shanties and huts with thatched roofs.

It is travelling at about 15 kilometres an hour and measures about 400-500 kilometres in length and breadth, the IMD said.

"We have already deployed our entire disaster mitigation force on pre-storm initiatives," special relief commissioner for Orissa, Pradipta Mohapatra, told AFP.

The 1999 super-cyclone which knocked out power lines, railway links and devastated forest areas packed far higher speeds of up to 300 kilometres an hour and led to a a storm surge of six metres.

A government report on the disaster published in 2009 put the human death toll at 8,243, while 445,000 livestock perished.

"We are fighting against nature. We are better prepared this time, we learnt a lot from 1999," the state's Disaster Management Minister Surya Narayan Patra told NDTV.

"The first priority will be to save people's lives, ensure food and electricity," Patra said.

Cyclones typically form in the Bay of Bengal around this time of year at the end of the steamy monsoon season when the sea temperatures are at their highest.

"The devastation is expected to be less than in 1999," said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at India's biggest private forecaster Skymet.

"This time we have the Indian Meteorological Office pinpointing the area of contact quite accurately and people are taking steps," he told AFP.

The last major storm to strike India was last January when Cyclone Thane hit the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, killing 42 people.

str-pmc-adp/ia

© 1994-2013 Agence France-Presse
According to this link from Stormchaser2007 the satellite estimated pressure is still 886.6 mb. I think Phailin may weaken just a little to 900-910 by landfall. But it won't make much difference.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 479. bwi:
I wish Dr. M would post a more detailed analysis of possible storm surge. The headline for on the WU main page is saying a "... Could be Packing a 10-Foot Storm Surge", but I would have to assume that this storm is powerful enough to push water a lot higher than that if the coastal topography was a certain way.


Here's a map of the Bay of Bengal. The water is deep just a short distance offshore and that helps keep the storm surge lower.



Will leave you for the afternoon. Found a link to TV in India currently providing coverage on the storm. Seems to be live but not sure abut the time lag:

Link


God Speed to all the folks in India.
I know this is trivial with Phailin's impending landfall but 98L continues to intensify and organize too. Latest satellite shot shows that a TD has at this point likely formed. The number of those evacuated for Phailin seems terribly low compared to the number of people in the path of. Makes you wonder how India, a country of immense wealth, albeit very consolidated, don't have HH's to fly into storms with the history they've had with these monsters.
The situation in the Eastern Ghats could get very ugly.

487. VR46L
.
Quoting 455. sar2401:

You can't have met want you wrote. Destruction is never beautiful. Those satellite images are impressive, awe-inspiring, and even beautiful in their own way, but the destruction these storms cause is never beautiful.
It was a metaphor.
Quoting 446. barbamz:


That is one round eye.
Yes, most people here have evacuated the coastal areas by foot, carts etc. The devastation of 1999 is still afresh. A lot of my relatives stay off the coast (inland 15 kms) of Gopalpur, the place where landfall is expected. In bhubaneswar, there has been gusts of upto 80 kmph. What I wanted to ask is whether the effect will be as pronounced 15 km inland, and whether structures made out of concrete(25 ft) will hold for the duration
Quoting 493. 11sam11:
Yes, most people here have evacuated the coastal areas by foot, carts etc. The devastation of 1999 is still afresh. A lot of my relatives stay off the coast (inland 15 kms) of Gopalpur, the place where landfall is expected. In bhubaneswar, there has been gusts of upto 80 kmph. What I wanted to ask is whether the effect will be as pronounced 15 km inland, and whether structures made out of concrete(25 ft) will hold for the duration


Well wishes from America to you!