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Incredible Destruction and at Least 21 Deaths in Fiji From Tropical Cyclone Winston

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:32 PM GMT on February 22, 2016

At least 21 deaths had been reported by late Monday Fiji time as the island nation slogged through the daunting early stages of recovery from ferocious Cyclone Winston, the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere. Officials expect the death toll to rise when they're finally able to reach outlying islands that were hit hardest by the powerful storm, said the BBC, and it would not be surprising if Winston ends up being the deadliest and costliest natural disaster in Fiji's history. Fiji's deadliest tropical cyclone in recorded history was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva, killing 25.

Since satellite records began in 1970 (with high-quality satellite images only available since 1990), just eleven Cat 5s (including Winston) have been observed anywhere in the South Pacific east of Australia. Winston is the strongest of these, according to records from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. As Winston passed over Fiji’s Koro Island on Saturday, its winds were estimated by satellite at 180 mph (note: Winston was originally assessed to have 185 mph peak winds, but these were reduced to 180 mph in post-analysis.) This puts Winston in fifth place for Earth's strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record. The only stronger storms were 2013's catastrophic Super Typhoon Haiyan (190 mph winds in Samar, Philippines), 2016's Super Typhoon Meranti (190 mph winds on Itbayat Island in the Philippines), 1959’s Typhoon Joan (185 mph winds in Taiwan) and the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys (185 mph winds). Wind speeds of 180 mph are characteristic of an EF4 tornado, and damage photos from the New Zealand Air Force showed many areas of incredible damage characteristic of at least EF3 tornado speeds (136 - 165 mph) on Koro Island (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Wind damage in the village of Vatulele, on the northeast tip of Koro Island, Fiji. Tropical Cyclone Winston was at peak strength with 185-mph winds (Category 5 strength) when the eye passed directly over this village on February 20, 2016. Without knowing the quality of the construction, a good guess is that damage in this photo is from EF3 tornado wind speeds (136 - 165 mph), implying that this portion of Koro did not receive the full force of Winston's winds. This may be because high terrain behind this village blocked the full force of the wind--similar to what happened in Tacloban, Philippines, during the landfall of Super Typhoon Haiyan when it was at Category 5 strength. Image credit: Fijian government Facebook page.


Figure 2. Infrared imagery of Hurricane Winston as it bore down on the northeast coast of Fiji’s largest and most populous island, Viti Levu, on February 20, 2016. Koro Island (not shown) is located beneath the eastern eyewall of Winston, with the eye of Winston having passed directly over the island. Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

A terrible track
Despite its relatively small size, Winston successfully took aim at Fiji along an unusual and especially destructive track. The cyclone had arced well south and east of Fiji last week before doing a 180-degree reversal in track and heading westward toward Fiji, strengthening from Category 2 to Category 5 en route. The storm’s powerful eyewall passed directly over several smaller islands and ground across the northern coast of Viti Levu, Fiji’s largest and most populous island. Photos taken from aboard New Zealand Air Force planes on Sunday, Feb. 21, 2016, and posted by the Fiji government on Facebook revealed the extent of the devastation from Winston on the island of Koro (see Figure 1) as well as Lau and Taveuni. The more highly touristed areas of Fiji, largely on Viti Levu, experienced relatively little damage, and no tourist casualties have been recorded, according to a Guardian report. On the west side of Viti Levu, Nadi International Airport resumed limited operations on Sunday, which will greatly facilitate relief efforts at the more remote islands. Most of the damage from WInston was due to the storm's extreme winds, though storm surge expert Hal Needham documented evidence of a storm surge of up to ten feet (3 meters) in a Monday blog post.


Figure 3. Cyclone Winston has carried out a large counterclockwise loop since its designation as a tropical cyclone on Feb. 10, 2016 (beginning of track at upper left). This tweet from Dan Lindsey includes a 12-day loop of Winston imagery from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite.

Patricia and Winston: strongest cyclones in Northern and Southern Hemisphere records
Remarkably, both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere have experienced their strongest cyclones in decades of record-keeping in the space of the last five months. NOAA recently announced the result of its post-storm analysis of Hurricane Patricia from October 2015, which spun up phenomenal sustained winds of 215 mph--the strongest ever measured by instruments via Hurricane Hunter aircraft--as the storm was approaching the Pacific coast of Mexico. Like Winston, Patricia was a relatively small storm, so its central pressure was not as low as its fierce winds might imply.

Since early 2015, we have had four Category 5 landfalls: Tropical Cyclone Pam (Vanuatu), Super Typhoon Maysak (Micronesia), Super Typhoon Noul (Philippines), and Cyclone Winston (Fiji). (Patricia was a strong Category 4 at landfall.) Although several of these tropical cyclones left major devastation in island nations that have relatively modest resources, we can take some comfort in the fact that none produced the kind of tragic death toll that occurred when Haiyan came ashore in the central Philippines. Haiyan was a large and fearsomely strong typhoon to begin with, and its destructive power was greatly exacerbated by its track into a large city on a shallow coastline prone to storm surge. The same could have easily occurred with several recent Cat 4s/5s: for example, only a slight eastward jog could have sent Patricia into Manzanillo Bay and the city of Manzanillo, Mexico. The very rapid strengthening of both Patricia and Winston--well beyond official forecasts in both cases--is a sobering reminder of the potential of real catastrophe in many areas, including the United States.


Figure 4. The most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. Note that Super Typhoon Haiyan was originally assessed to have 195 mph winds at landfall by JTWC, but these were reduced to 190 mph after a post-season reanalysis. Also, Hurricane Camille's winds at landfall have also been reduced in a recent reanalysis, from 190 mph to 175 mph.

Climate change and Category 5s
In 2015, Earth saw a total of nine Category 5 storms, the second-highest total on record. This explosion of cyclonic fury was fed by ocean temperatures that were at record-warm levels globally, with especially warm readings across tropical and subtropical areas. El Niño has played a large role over the last few months by spreading warm surface water across vast swaths of the Pacific. However, Earth has also experienced a decade of intensified oceanic heat storage (which largely explains the temporary slowdown in the rate of atmospheric warming from about 2000 to 2012).

Tropical cyclones are heat engines at heart: they transfer energy from low-latitude oceans to the higher-latitude atmosphere. As human-produced greenhouse gases continue to pump energy into Earth’s oceans (where more than 90% of the excess heat from those greenhouse gases is stored), it is no surprise that some of that heat is being expressed in the form of record-setting typhoons, hurricanes, and cyclones. Now that ocean temperatures are considerably warmer than they were a few decades ago, the maximum potential intensity a hurricane can reach is higher. Climate models generally agree that we can expect a greater proportion of Earth’s tropical cyclones to attain Category 5 strength over the coming decades.

At Discover's ImaGeo blog, Tom Yulsman has an excellent distillation of Winston's connections to climate change as well as El Niño and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

UNICEF and Save the Children are asking for donations to assist in Fiji relief efforts.

Dangerous weather brewing for Tuesday along Gulf Coast
We're keeping our eye on an expected outbreak of severe weather on Tuesday that could bring several strong tornadoes along the central Gulf Coast. Watch for more details here on Tuesday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 5. Expected change in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per decade expected by the year 2100, according to Knutson et al. (2013), "Dynamical Downscaling Projections of 21st Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-based Scenarios." This research used the latest generation of climate models from the 2013 IPCC report, and found "marginally significant" increases in Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes of 39% - 45% by 2100.


Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

years ago use too love the sound of the crickets at night after sun went down then around 1 in the morning u hear em but the last 10 years or so don't hear em anymore that and the dance of the monarch in the warm July sun




We have Mole Crickets here .. a couple of years ago there were so many that when you walked across the grass it looked like the whole yard was moving ..
Thanks doks!

The NAM 4km is REALLY overdoing snowfall amounts...just look at it.


Would be incredible if it verified, though.
Thanks for report though it is dreadful news. Not much being said about it otherwise on this side/hemisphere of the planet.

A co-worker has a honeymoon planned on one of the Fiji islands in May. Tourism is a big part of their economy.
Thank You Dr. for the stats on Fiji and prayers for those folks and hoping that there will not be many more deaths as they get to the outlying islands.

That projection chart does not look too good for the US Gulf coast in the coming decades in terms of high-end storm potential.............................I will note this chart is from 2013 and that we have been seeing some record high summer SST's around the Bahamas the last few seasons; might have to take the red box a little further east past Florida in the coming years.

We are only in February and current SST's in the Western Caribbean are already toasty (below)..............

a very scary sign of the new world we have created!...all because of our addiction to fossil fuels
Patricia upon re-analysis was downgraded to a category 4 at landfall.

276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
5:42 PM GMT on February 22, 2016





Quoting 274. whitewabit:




We have Mole Crickets here .. a couple of years ago there were so many that when you walked across the grass it looked like the whole yard was moving ..

there still around outside the city I figure it may just be the city they avoid maybe I really don't know why they disappeared but I do remember them when I first came to Toronto in the summer in the 80's and 90's even but once we got to year 2000 things slowly began to change and increased in the speed at which its happening ever since
thanks for lunch time update another for the record books with many more to come
I was in Savusavu about a year and a half ago and all the pictures I've seen show devastation of places in the town.
Quoting 1. whitewabit:

Quoting 270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

years ago use too love the sound of the crickets at night after sun went down then around 1 in the morning u hear em but the last 10 years or so don't hear em anymore that and the dance of the monarch in the warm July sun




We have Mole Crickets here .. a couple of years ago there were so many that when you walked across the grass it looked like the whole yard was moving ..


No thanks on the moving grass of crickets. I'll pass... I don't even like the hoards of blue crabs in October that would run across Old Cutler Road in South Miami-Dade County.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

...COASTAL SC...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 02/22/2016

stay alert folks in the gulf coast states possible strong tornado's NOAA is saying...............
Conditions in the Northern Gulf region are starting to get more favorable for severe weather starting tomorrow; now we have to see how the Texas low develops that will force more warm Gulf flow into the mix:




Quoting 6. all4hurricanes:

Patricia upon re-analysis was downgraded to a category 4 at landfall.


Indeed--thanks for the catch! I've corrected the post accordingly.
Quoting 11. Dakster:



No thanks on the moving grass of crickets. I'll pass... I don't even like the hoards of blue crabs in October that would run across Old Cutler Road in South Miami-Dade County.


It was creepy looking and when I mowed the yard they would try to get out of the way of the mower 5 to 10 feet in front of it .. the sound or vibration seemed to cause them .. what was surprising the birds didn't seem to like them to eat ..
18. RayT
I just noticed the wunderground global map shows a depression just off the west coast of Africa is this correct or is this an error? it looks to be around the equator.
Quoting 17. whitewabit:



It was creepy looking and when I mowed the yard they would try to get out of the way of the mower 5 to 10 feet in front of it .. the sound or vibration seemed to cause them .. what was surprising the birds didn't seem to like them to eat ..


That's why you had so many... If the birds liked them you wouldn't have had that many. It's why the iguanas are so prolific in Florida. Nothing eats them. My cat caught a baby one and threw up for days afterwards...
Thanks for the update Doc!

What I have to wonder is, with the increase in global temperatures, how often and how strong can we expect EL Nino's to become?

It would seem that as surface temps increase both on water and land, we would see some rise of stronger El NIno's over the coming decades. Makes me think its the climate trying to regulate more, though I do not have any inkling where the tipping point will be.
Quoting 2. 62901IL:

Thanks doks!

The NAM 4km is REALLY overdoing snowfall amounts...just look at it.


Would be incredible if it verified, though.
For what ever reason there is a dearth of people from the Midwest posting, looks as if SE Michigan will get hammered with 8-12 inches of snow starting Wednesday afternoon. The storm if still in the Pacific, but forecasts have been trending a more westward path the past day or so. We have had only one snow storm all season, and that was back at the time of Thanksgiving. Since then we have had "maybe" an inch on the ground from clippers that basically past us by. And remember rest of America, it is pop, not soda. :-)
SPC AC 221715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

...COASTAL SC...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 02/22/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1854Z (12:54PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UP
Quoting 1. whitewabit:

Quoting 270. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We have Mole Crickets here .. a couple of years ago there were so many that when you walked across the grass it looked like the whole yard was moving ..


You reminded me of something. My grandfather told stories from his great grandfather about passenger pigeons. He said there were so many the skies would be dark for hours when they passed over and the ground would have an accumulation of bird droppings. It seems as of late that there have been especially large amounts of insects, like ants and crickets and hornets the past few summers and because you mentioned it I am realizing now it might be because we've killed off too many birds. Let me also say I think my garden would grow better if there was a layer of bird poo dropped every year.
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




CLASS 4 outbreak.

Quoting 18. RayT:

I just noticed the wunderground global map shows a depression just off the west coast of Africa is this correct or is this an error? it looks to be around the equator.


Thanks, Ray--we've just caught and (hopefully!) fixed the bug that produced that spurious depression.
I have to disagree with the assertion that EF3 damage is an indicator of cyclone wind speeds of 135-165 MPH. You always get more damage in tornadoes of equivalent wind speeds.
Quoting 6. all4hurricanes:

Patricia upon re-analysis was downgraded to a category 4 at landfall.
Thank you, I was wondering why Patricia wasn't on that list. When did the re-analysis happen?
Quoting 25. 62901IL:



CLASS 4 outbreak.


yes a dangerous situation possibly
Quoting 29. LargoFl:

yes a dangerous situation possibly


Who among y'all thinks it could be upgraded to HIGH RISK? (Class 5)
Quoting 30. 62901IL:



Who among y'all thinks it could be upgraded to HIGH RISK? (Class 5)
well they are mentioning it getting stronger today, guess we wait this out and see what they say early tomorrow morning.
Quoting 32. LargoFl:

well they are mentioning it getting stronger today, guess we wait this out and see what they say early tomorrow morning.


That's what I'd do.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO
SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL LA EWD INTO CNTRL AL
AND INTO SWRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX EWD INTO
MS/AL/GA AND THE FL BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SE TX EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO GA/FL...
A SPEED MAX OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/EVOLVING CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST AFTER DARK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED FROM SERN TX NEWD INTO NRN MS/WRN TN DURING THE
PERIOD. A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY 1
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL REGION
FARTHER N INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN/SERN TX
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. ALL HAZARDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS TX BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS INLAND...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

A MESSY MODE AND MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE BOTH NEAR THE EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT AND WITH MORE CELLULAR
ACTIVITY IN CLUSTERS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
BANDS. WITH TIME...DMGG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE AS SHEAR PROFILES UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING /EFFECTIVE
SRH 300-500+ M2 PER S2/. DESPITE STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT
OWING IN PART TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...VERY STRONG CROSS-BOUNDARY FLOW AND 70+ KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS --ALONG WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
TORNADOES-- AFTER DARK AS THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS EWD.

...COASTAL SC...
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP LATE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF STREAM SPREADS INLAND AND ACTS TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT MODEST BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 02/22/2016
Quoting 26. BobHenson:



Thanks, Ray--we've just caught and (hopefully!) fixed the bug that produced that spurious depression.


I hope the site isn't being prophetic to an overly active season.
Is this the shortest flood advisory you've ever seen?

TNC037-230358-
/O.CON.KOHX.FL.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-160223T1400Z/
/DONT1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
958 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

The Flood Advisory continues for
The Stones River Near Donelson
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 09AM Monday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
Latest WPC loop screen captures issued about 30 minutes ago for the next few days:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bwxloop_ndfd .html

Tomorrow:
Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Tue 06Z
Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Tue 18Z

Wed
Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Wed 12Z



99 days until the Atlantic Hurricane season begins, (officially)

Quoting 38. Patrap:

99 days until the Atlantic Hurricane season begins, (officially)




Bit early to be posting that methinks although we did have a January hurricane!
Quoting 38. Patrap:

99 days until the Atlantic Hurricane season begins, (officially)




I live a stones throw away from the water and the continued rise in water temperatures has me expediting the preparations to sell my current home and move to higher ground. We're going on 11 years without a major hurricane affecting our area and I think it's just a matter of time if you look at how much the water has warmed in the last decade.
41. RayT
Quoting 26. BobHenson:



Thanks, Ray--we've just caught and (hopefully!) fixed the bug that produced that spurious depression.


Yep. looks better now.
Quoting 28. LuckySD:

Thank you, I was wondering why Patricia wasn't on that list. When did the re-analysis happen?

They released the report a few weeks ago Jeff has a blog on it since they also upped the winds at peak intensity
Quoting 27. pipelines:

I have to disagree with the assertion that EF3 damage is an indicator of cyclone wind speeds of 135-165 MPH. You always get more damage in tornadoes of equivalent wind speeds.


I've never really liked comparing hurricane wind speeds to tornado wind speeds, but it seems to help some people understand how powerful tropical systems can be. But it's definitely not an apples to apples comparison for many reasons.

Could you imagine 150 mph north winds hitting the front of your house while 150 mph winds from the south are hitting the back of your house? Then add the vertical lift associated with tornadoes. That makes tornadoes very destructive.

Pretty remarkable to imagine such a rapid change in wind speed and direction over such as short distance.
img src="


I know it's 8 days out, and March 2, but it's ECMWF, and it looks very similar to how Alex looked on the model a week before it formed. Could this be Bonnie?
Hey Patrap, when do you wake up Hurlo?
987 MB...Impressive...specially that far south.

Quoting 48. hydrus:

987 MB...Impressive...specially that far south.


looks like a couple of dangerous days coming up
I have a Question Doc IF I may...with Global warming and the earth staying warmer Longer..would the hurricane/tropical season be extended in the years to come? TY in advance.
Quoting 49. LargoFl:

looks like a couple of dangerous days coming up
And for millions of people. If that 987 mb pressure pans out, widespread damage to trees is almost certain..The already wet ground makes it easier to uproot them.
Quoting 54. hydrus:

And for millions of people. If that 987 mb pressure pans out, widespread damage to trees is almost certain..The already wet ground makes it easier to uproot them.
yes I sure hope folks are paying attention to the warnings..seems every update gets a lil stronger warning with it.
Quoting 52. LargoFl:

I have a Question Doc IF I may...with Global warming and the earth staying warmer Longer..would the hurricane/tropical season be extended in the years to come? TY in advance.


Kossin looked at this in 2008 and found it to be the case, although the uncertainty was high. A reanalysis up to 2014 data confirmed his earlier observations. His work is quite extensive: Link

The important thing to remember is SST is not the only factor in Hurricane Season length. As we move forward, other variables may change making the increases in SST negated by other factors. But for now, we have already observed a slight lengthening of the season on both the front and back end.
Quoting 56. Naga5000:



Kossin looked at this in 2008 and found it to be the case, although the uncertainty was high. A reanalysis up to 2014 data confirmed his earlier observations. His work is quite extensive: Link

The important thing to remember is SST is not the only factor in Hurricane Season length. As we move forward, other variables may change making the increases in SST negated by other factors. But for now, we have already observed a slight lengthening of the season on both the front and back end.
oh many thanks for that info.
Quoting 27. pipelines:

I have to disagree with the assertion that EF3 damage is an indicator of cyclone wind speeds of 135-165 MPH. You always get more damage in tornadoes of equivalent wind speeds.


You are correct, the whole reason for the EF scale, was simply a reanalysis that found it takes less winds from tornadoes to cause equivalent damage than previously thought. There's a reason why an EF1 with 100 mph winds can toss a car and rip a roof off of a normal home, while 100 mph winds in a hurricane might push you around in a car, and might damage a roof, but it won't cause the same damage as a tornado. Tornadoes have rapid change in speed and direction, and they also have a vertical component, which means the wind energy is more effectively applied to a surface area for greater damage potential. You will see EF2-EF3 tornadoes launching cars through the air and completely destroying structures.

Really, EF3 winds are more comparable to category 5 hurricane winds, Also while the damage in the picture in the blog is bad, it's not the worst of the damage.

In reality, I would say it would take about 200 mph straight line winds of a hurricane to cause damage equivalent of an EF4 tornado. Even then, the way tornadoes cause damage compared to hurricane makes it difficult to compare. Whatever the case, some of the damage images from cyclone Winston is some of the worst I've ever seen from non-tornado wind damage, and does look comparable to that of a high end tornado, so while speeds can't be compared, what can be said, as that wind speeds from Winston had to be downright extreme to cause some of the damage I've seen.
I have been trying to think of anything else in the world where something can claim to be a record with no actual measurements taken to show this. According to the blog a place that took a direct hit does not show these winds, perhaps it is the terrain or perhaps the satellite is not the end all be all.

Ask yourself this question if the satellite is that great at estimating (measuring) a hurricane (cyclone, typhoon) why use planes at all to go into a storm.

This storm may well be a record but the true fact is we may never know and claiming it is off a satellite is to me trying to get a headline
Quoting 52. LargoFl:

I have a Question Doc IF I may...with Global warming and the earth staying warmer Longer..would the hurricane/tropical season be extended in the years to come? TY in advance.
Probably not, theirs more to it than just a slightly warmer temps.
Not exactly sure but starting to see some broad rotation near the New Mexico - Texas border that may mark the start of the developing Texas low on the loops and lower level vort chart:


Hit the forecast high of 46 today in S C IL, & w/ 47 forecast for tomorrow, not too concerned about freezing rain from upcoming system even though we're on snow/mix line. Was in 70s Fri, (StL broke its record w/ a 77) and in upper 60s Sat., so frost line has moved down in most areas. Lots of side by sides & 4 wheelers out on country roads as expected, but did not expect to be buzzed by mosquitoes so early, had to pull the Cutter out.

Ya'll stay alert down S, hope if do break out tomorrow, they stay rural and damage is minimal.
Quoting 59. nymore:

I have been trying to think of anything else in the world where something can claim to be a record with no actual measurements taken to show this. According to the blog a place that took a direct hit does not show these winds, perhaps it is the terrain or perhaps the satellite is not the end all be all.

Ask yourself this question if the satellite is that great at estimating (measuring) a hurricane (cyclone, typhoon) why use planes at all to go into a storm.

This storm may well be a record but the true fact is we may never know and claiming it is off a satellite is to me trying to get a headline
Where the uninformed see conspiracy and collusion, knowledgeable types see science at work. Those satellite-based wind measurements aren't WAGs generated for "headlines"; they're estimates produced by people with decades of advanced education using sophisticated technology, and based on many, many years of research and observation. They may not be exact, but they are as precise and as accurate as possible.

Bottom line: while some may choose to believe it impossible that the two strongest cyclones ever measured in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have taken place in just the past five months, those who've been carefully watching the ocean warm don't find it hard to believe at all...

(You'd be amazed at what science can do. We've never been close to other stars, not even nearby ones. Yet astronomers know what chemicals are in those stars; they know how large or small they are; they know how fast those stars rotate, in what direction and at what speed they're orbiting the galactic center; they know with some certainty how many planets may be orbiting those distant suns, and the size of those planets and how quickly they orbit. And scientists know all this just by using, you know, science.)
Quoting 61. NativeSun:

Probably not, theirs more to it than just a slightly warmer temps.
Can you explain why not? Isn't hurricane season bounded by times when SSTs are too low to support tropical cyclones?

Seems obvious that raising the water temps will extend the boundaries of the season.
There are two dangerous days ahead across the Southeast U.S. High shear and moderate instability tomorrow should prompt several supercells, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes—some significant. The setup across the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday is easily the most significant since the record outbreak of April 16, 2011, but that's not saying much considering how sporadic large events are here. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Enhanced and Moderate risk areas expanded for tomorrow, and I think we'll see a big ramp-up in threat level for Wednesday. Probably a Moderate risk.
Quoting 44. HurricaneFan:



I know it's 8 days out, and March 2, but it's ECMWF, and it looks very similar to how Alex looked on the model a week before it formed. Could this be Bonnie?
Since this winter has been rather pathetic we might as well start the season with a early start.I'm just waiting for our string of 70 degree days.
Quoting 52. LargoFl:

I have a Question Doc IF I may...with Global warming and the earth staying warmer Longer..would the hurricane/tropical season be extended in the years to come? TY in advance.


Largo, we don't want to ignore that the study draws no conclusions caused by humans:
The relationship with SST is suggestive of a larger link to climate variability, but no explicit link to human-induced global warming can be inferred from this study.
Tomorrow looks to be a quite incredible day. I, being in the middle of the moderate risk, am very worried about us being in a trailer and the risk being overnight. I'd be willing to bet that once the sirens go off we are in a safe place. I cannot remember in my short meteorological career the last time or if we have had a moderate risk centered directly over southern AL like that. The Lord knows best and I pray that we will stay safe.
Quoting 66. AdamReith:

Can you explain why not? Isn't hurricane season bounded by times when SSTs are too low to support tropical cyclones?

Seems obvious that raising the water temps will extend the boundaries of the season.


Not only that, but increased SST has increased the distance from the equator when storms peak in wind speed, and it has caused expanding tropical zones in which storms can form according to recent research.
Nearly all US forests threatened by drought, climate change

Risks include wildfires, major diebacks in the west; emerging risks in the east

DURHAM, N.C. -- Forests nationwide are feeling the heat from increasing drought and climate change, according to a new study by scientists from 14 research institutions.

"Over the last two decades, warming temperatures and variable precipitation have increased the severity of forest droughts across much of the continental United States," said James S. Clark, lead author of the study and Nicholas Professor of Environmental Science at Duke University.

"While the effects have been most pronounced in the West, our analysis shows virtually all U.S. forests are now experiencing change and are vulnerable to future declines," he said. "Given the high degree of uncertainty in our understanding of how forest species and stands adapt to rapid change, it's going to be difficult to anticipate the type of forests that will be here in 20 to 40 years."


Link
Quoting 64. Neapolitan:

Where the uninformed see conspiracy and collusion, knowledgeable types see science at work. Those satellite-based wind measurements aren't WAGs generated for "headlines"; they're estimates produced by people with decades of advanced education using sophisticated technology, and based on many, many years of research and observation. They may not be exact, but they are as precise and as accurate as possible.

Bottom line: while some may choose to believe it impossible that the two strongest cyclones ever measured in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres have taken place in just the past five months, those who've been carefully watching the ocean warm don't find it hard to believe at all...


Edited the straw man part of the response.

I have no problem believing Patricia was a record because you have actual measurements from instruments being placed directly into the storm. In this case you have only a satellite rep of the storm and according to the blog a place that took a direct hit does not verify these estimated winds.

As I said before this may well have been a record but the fact remains without more complete measurements or evidence this storm will just be that the estimated record which is not the same as the measured record.

I will happily take an asterisk next to it.

Quoting 69. luvtogolf:



Largo, we don't want to ignore that the study draws no conclusions caused by humans:
The relationship with SST is suggestive of a larger link to climate variability, but no explicit link to human-induced global warming can be inferred from this study.


Right, the link in regards to the study is implicit. Maybe you would like to wager a guess on what is causing long term SST trends to increase? Since the 2008 paper, many more have addressed the role of AGW in SST trends in the tropical Atlantic. These few linked here in this write up were from 2006. Link
I know this is from the last blog, but I went back and read up what I missed...

Quoting 247. Drakoen:



I don't remember the equations off the top of my head, but I do remember that many in the senior level dynamics classes did not take PDE I (as it is not a requirement for the MET degree), but had taken ODE and were shown how to solve the PDE's for the equations we were working with.


ODE is the top math required for the met majors here at Millersville U. I'm currently in it, had a test today, totally failed...I have never been able to figure out water going into a tank and then exiting with a solution. And the teacher makes that 25% of the test? :( Ugh. I need a D+ for the major and a C- for the minor.

One exam down and three to go. Physics, American Judiciary, Physical Meteorology (where we have learned about the formation of a snowflake and of a raindrop and of the all important cloud droplet). Exciting. /sarcasm flag on
Quoting 66. AdamReith:

Can you explain why not? Isn't hurricane season bounded by times when SSTs are too low to support tropical cyclones?

Seems obvious that raising the water temps will extend the boundaries of the season.

Waters in the Caribbean are usually warm enough to support TC development year round but hurricanes are not a constant threat. I have heard wind shear from the subtropical jet determines the bounds of hurricane season although many other factors such as African easterly wave activity, humidity and environmental vorticity impact cyclone development that would not be directly impacted by warmer SSTs
77. vis0



Quoting 17. whitewabit:



It was creepy looking and when I mowed the yard they would try to get out of the way of the mower 5 to 10 feet in front of it .. the sound or vibration seemed to cause them .. what was surprising the birds didn't seem to like them to eat ..
my reply is on my zilly blog it has added words that will be very controversial but i feel are important to the human race if they want to turn the corner on the real cause of ADD ( causing man to not think correctly/fully) and therefore recover future generations ability to think and save the planet from the damage GW or aGW will eventually led to. If one cares one will find out where that zilly blog is and the most recent comment matched to the time of this comment.
Post 62- best post of the day.
Quoting 68. washingtonian115:

Since this winter has been rather pathetic we might as well start the season with a early start.I'm just waiting for our string of 70 degree days.


Well, the location of this storm is similar to many off-season storms, and we already had Alex in January. March is supposed to be the time when tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic is rarest, but it seems, anything is possible this hurricane season.
Quoting 24. Snacker2:



You reminded me of something. My grandfather told stories from his great grandfather about passenger pigeons. He said there were so many the skies would be dark for hours when they passed over and the ground would have an accumulation of bird droppings. It seems as of late that there have been especially large amounts of insects, like ants and crickets and hornets the past few summers and because you mentioned it I am realizing now it might be because we've killed off too many birds. Let me also say I think my garden would grow better if there was a layer of bird poo dropped every year.



That's for that , a remarkable family story, and time span , since most passenger pigeons were wiped out by the Civil War. Their range was centered in the Ohio Valley. Meriwether Lewis in the journals reports on millions of red squirrels swimming across the Ohio into Kentucky as he made his way west. He had a big dog , a Newfoundland named Seaman. It freak out and jumped off the keel boat. That dog made the entire trip .

It's pretty amazing how fast we have changed the Earth. And as The Keeper says it's getting "faster and faster".

Ryan Maue
‏@RyanMaue
Cyclone Zoe (2003) likely as strong or stronger than Cyclone Winston ... but forgotten was T 8.0 Anne (Jan 1988)
Orleans Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings
Wind Advisory
Issued: 4:20 PM CST Feb. 22, 2016 %u2013 National Weather Service

... Wind Advisory in effect from 10 am Tuesday to 6 am CST
Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 10 am Tuesday to 6 am CST
Wednesday.

* Timing... winds will begin strengthening during the morning
Tuesday and will be strongest Tuesday night.

* Winds... sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts as high
as 40 mph.

* Duration... 24 to 36 hours of strong winds.

* Impacts... strong winds will blow around unsecured objects like
trash cans and light weight outdoor furniture. Sudden gusts of
wind will make driving on some bridges and elevated roadways
difficult at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph are expected.

Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Additionally... be sure
to secure loose objects like trash cans and light weight outdoor
furniture as winds can blow these items around causing damage.
From the last blog, thanks georgevandenberghe and weberweather. I didn't really know how to ask the question to the google machine to find what I wanted. I'll give it plenty of reading once this week of tests are over. Got my own DE's to solve ;)
More Than 100 Scientists Ask Leading Science Association To Cut Ties With Exxon

More than a hundred scientists have sent a letter to the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the largest association of earth and space scientists in the world, asking it to cut financial ties with Exxon in light of allegations that the fossil fuel company willfully misled the public about climate change for decades.

The letter was initially crafted by three early career scientists from MIT and Harvard, but has since garnered signatures from over 100 prominent scientists, including names like James Hansen, Naomi Oreskes, and Michael Mann.

“Our intention is to help rebut the climate misinformation that has been put out, especially by ExxonMobil, by asking the AGU to reject sponsorship from Exxon for its conferences,” Ben Scandella, a PhD candidate at MIT and one of the letter’s original authors, told ThinkProgress. “We’re concerned that by accepting sponsorship from Exxon, AGU is engaging in a serious conflict of interest because it is lending its institutional license to a company that is working publicly to undermine the consensus about anthropogenic climate change that a number of AGU members have worked hard to establish.”


Link
Quoting 75. Astrometeor:

I know this is from the last blog, but I went back and read up what I missed...



ODE is the top math required for the met majors here at Millersville U. I'm currently in it, had a test today, totally failed...I have never been able to figure out water going into a tank and then exiting with a solution. And the teacher makes that 25% of the test? :( Ugh. I need a D for the major and a C- for the minor.

One exam down and three to go. Physics, American Judiciary, Physical Meteorology (where we have learned about the formation of a snowflake and of a raindrop and of the all important cloud droplet). Exciting. /sarcasm flag on


Don't give up, I almost always score poorly on my first exams, but get better as time goes on, I've had a class where I failed the first exam and ended up with an A- in the course, in fact that happened to me calculus in 3.

BTW, atmospheric dynamics 2 and atmospheric physics 2 here at FSU use PDE, but the amount we need is taught to us in the courses, so we don't have to take the class, just ODE. Which is fine be me, one less class to spend money on and take up more time on my schedule.
Quoting 24. Snacker2:



You reminded me of something. My grandfather told stories from his great grandfather about passenger pigeons. He said there were so many the skies would be dark for hours when they passed over and the ground would have an accumulation of bird droppings. It seems as of late that there have been especially large amounts of insects, like ants and crickets and hornets the past few summers and because you mentioned it I am realizing now it might be because we've killed off too many birds. Let me also say I think my garden would grow better if there was a layer of bird poo dropped every year.



From time to time I remind readers that those grasshoppers mentioned in the Little House series by Laura Ingalls Wilder (on the banks of Plum Creek], were Rocky Mountain Spotted Locusts and they were extinct only thirty years later in the early 1900s.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118


NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222118Z - 222345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SWRN TX
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...ELY POST FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINING UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF
WRN TX. SFC HEATING HAS BOOSTED TEMPERATURES TO 70F...AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE EVENING WITHIN EXIT REGION
OF A STRONG SEWD-ADVANCING UPPER JET. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS IS BUILDING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS FARTHER WEST
ALONG A DRYLINE...AND A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR /45-50 KT/ IS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 02/22/2016
90. vis0

Quoting 56. Naga5000:



Kossin looked at this in 2008 and found it to be the case, although the uncertainty was high. A reanalysis up to 2014 data confirmed his earlier observations. His work is quite extensive: Link

The important thing to remember is SST is not the only factor in Hurricane Season length. As we move forward, other variables may change making the increases in SST negated by other factors. But for now, we have already observed a slight lengthening of the season on both the front and back end.
Agree plus- To my unprofessional thinking its not just a lengthening but that society is unwanted-ly building an ocean to support TS development 24/7 365.25.

The natural TS period in the ATLANTIC would still be June through the end of November by using the full array of TS building factors, BUT come December or May (WHAT JANUARY?! - Alex) and the waters are just warm enough to support a TS and if a change in weather flow mimics those official "TS building factors" then kahblob!** we have a TS.
 
Either way you look at it be it GW or aGW it is less time to enjoy the beauty of a happy quiet natural setting and more time re re rebuilding. 
Now, the 24/7 365.25 wont happen in 50 years but each delay of not maintaining strong laws to help lower pollutants that are causing GW/aGW is taking the human race closer not further to that 24/7 365.25 reality .

The USofA coastline has dodged MAJOR TS...yet...

 Unless nature is flipping a two headed coin and humanity has chosen tails for no TS to hit the USofA one understands that no ill will is thought for humans nor property its just that the clock is getting close to midnight and the pumpkin coach is getting mushy and its time for a DR Scholls to go into that glass slipper of expired excuses or does it take a 1, 2 3 punch for some to think maybe??? its time to help pass laws to protect the planet so those after us can calmly take in nature beauty and not nervously take in natures' wrath.
-------------
**Not using "blob" as not to conflict with copyright #8...Grothars "blob"
Heading Home; give your friends and family along the Gulf Coast areas threatened for tomorrow (and further to east) with the weather a call tonight to give them a heads up. Encourage them to get a Noaa weather radio tonight or early tomorrow morning if they do not already have one. If any of these people on your personal list live in mobile homes, you might encourage them to make arrangements to hunker down in a friend or family member's sturdier building as well for the duration tomorrow if they can.
Thanks Docs, Another outstanding article.

Interesting when one explores how the cumulative release of this Nino's incredible heat energy can clearly be seen spread across global weather. Even though California and most of the south experienced a bit less anomalous weather than expected, other places have really felt a spike, like Seattle rain, NE US heat, Africa/Australia drought, etc. Perhaps none of these compares to what El Nino looks to be doing in the arctic. 10-15 years of the PDO belching heat is not going to be pretty at all for the arctic.

More sea ice trends like the one below bodes none too well for "weather like it used to be" in the northern hemisphere.

NOLA and all points east should heed and review any weather warnings that might come via email
from local authorities as well as outside sources
Quoting 88. georgevandenberghe:



From time to time I remind readers that those grasshoppers mentioned in the Little House series by Laura Ingalls Wilder (on the banks of Plum Creek], were Rocky Mountain Spotted Locusts and they were extinct only thirty years later in the early 1900s.



True, but we killed the passenger pigeons, shot the bison herds and leveled the old growth forests. What killed off the Rocky Mountain Spotted Locusts is a wonderful biological question. What killed off the passenger pigeons, shot the bison herds and leveled the old growth forests. Was us.
A Monster 2016 Arctic Melt Season May Have Already Begun

“Hell is empty… all the devils are here.” William Shakespeare — The Tempest.

Link
According to Climate Reanalyzer, the average temperature departure in the Arctic today was +7.06 deg C.
Quoting 87. Jedkins01:



Don't give up, I almost always score poorly on my first exams, but get better as time goes on, I've had a class where I failed the first exam and ended up with an A- in the course, in fact that happened to me calculus 3.

BTW, dynamics 2 and physics 2 here at FSU use PDE, but the amount we need is taught to us in the courses, so we don't have to take the class, just ODE. Which is fine be me, one less class to spend money on and take up more time on my schedule.


I was such a slacker in Calc III because I aced the previous two, with all the math I've had since I'd do way better taking it again. Still deciding whether to take PDEs or Applied next year, I don't need another math (already have the minor down) but I'd like to take one just to keep my skills sharp as it helps with the couple physics courses I have remaining. I loved DiffEQ and have a reasonable knowledge on PDE's so I'm leaning towards that.

Quoting 67. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are two dangerous days ahead across the Southeast U.S. High shear and moderate instability tomorrow should prompt several supercells, with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes—some significant. The setup across the eastern Carolinas on Wednesday is easily the most significant since the record outbreak of April 16, 2011, but that's not saying much considering how sporadic large events are here. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Enhanced and Moderate risk areas expanded for tomorrow, and I think we'll see a big ramp-up in threat level for Wednesday. Probably a Moderate risk.


I'll read more into it when I get a chance, but what time Wednesday is the bad stuff expected to make itself known here?
Science confirms it: Denial of climate change is all about the politics

By Chelsea Harvey February 22 at 11:46 AM
Dozens of surveys and studies have attempted to figure out which factors most heavily influence individuals’ beliefs about climate change and their support for climate-friendly policies. But because there have been so many published recently, scientists argue that it’s been difficult to keep up with the overall trends these studies have been revealing.

Now, some clarity is being offered in the form of a new analysis published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, which reviews all the existing literature on climate change beliefs and pulls out the broad conclusions that can be drawn from all the combined research. The findings highlight two major ideas about the public’s feelings on climate change. First, the analysis suggests that out of all the personal characteristics examined by scientists so far, political affiliations, worldviews and values were the most significant predictors of a person’s beliefs about climate change. Second — and perhaps somewhat disheartening — a person’s belief in climate change doesn’t necessarily translate into big support for climate-friendly action.

“There are quite a few studies out there on the psychology of skepticism, but the insights are scattered across so many bitsy data sets and so many different disciplines it was hard to see the forest for the trees,” said the new paper’s lead author Matthew Hornsey, a psychology professor at the University of Queensland in Australia. “The meta-analysis was a chance to step back and to get that birds-eye view. It’s like a Monet painting – the more you step back, the more it makes sense.”

The analysis included nearly 200 previous polls and studies conducted in 57 countries around the world. It examined the influence of a variety of different variables, including demographic characteristics like age, sex and education; psychological variables, such as people’s “green identity,” or their overall level of concern about the environment; and what the authors refer to as the “downstream consequences of climate change belief,” or what sorts of concrete environmental policies people support.

The findings may challenge certain stereotypes often accepted by the general public about who does and does not believe in anthropogenic climate change, said Hornsey — two major ones in particular. First, he said, there’s a widely held belief that climate doubters are less educated. But while there’s a small tendency for skeptics to have lower levels of education or less climate-specific knowledge, he said that the relationship isn’t particularly strong.

“Another idea about skeptics is that they’re all older white men,” Hornsey said. “Again, there’s a small kernel of truth here – people higher in skepticism are more likely to be old, white and male – but the effects are so tiny you have to squint to see them. What really popped was people’s ideologies, political values, worldviews.”
Indeed, political affiliation was the demographic variable most strongly correlated with people’s beliefs about climate change, with people who vote for more liberal political parties being more inclined to believe in climate change. Notably, political ideology — that is, a person’s overall general set of political beliefs along a continuous scale (a related, but different measure than the party a person intends to vote for) — was less of a predictor, although still a significant factor. “This suggests that acceptance of climate change is more aligned to specific identification with political parties than to underlying political ideologies,” the authors wrote in the paper.

It’s a finding that was particularly interesting to sociology professor Riley Dunlap of Oklahoma State University. Dunlap was not involved with the new meta-analysis, but his research on climate change beliefs was included in the study. “I think this is a function of covering studies in a number of countries,” Dunlap said, noting that his research focusing on just the United States has found ideology to have a significance on par with party affiliation.

The most significant psychological variable — and indeed, the strongest predictor out of all the variables together — was a construct known as the New Ecological Paradigm, or NEP. This is a scale used to essentially measure people’s levels of environmental concern. It does not deal specifically with climate change, as the authors point out — but it is a strong predictor of people’s belief in global warming.

[This is why sowing doubt about climate change is such an effective strategy]

The paradigm, in fact, was developed by Dunlap and his colleagues. “The NEP scale is designed to measure an ecological worldview,” Dunlap noted. “So it’s not surprising that people who endorse such a worldview express very high concern about climate change.”

Belief in the trustworthiness of scientists and the idea that there’s a scientific consensus surrounding climate change were also strong predictors of a person’s belief in climate change. Other somewhat less significant predictors included characteristics such as a person’s scientific knowledge, their level of individualism versus communitarianism, and demographic variables such as age, race or sex.

All of that said, the analysis also points out that people who believe in climate change are not always quick to support every climate-friendly policy that’s proposed. In general, the study’s authors note, the link between belief in climate change and support for a policy grows weaker the more specific and concrete the type of policy support being measured. For instance, people who believe in climate change are highly likely to say, generally, that they support policies that prioritize the environment over the economy. But it’s less likely that they will specifically support a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade scheme.

more:....
We will be rolling Severe T-storm and Nado warnings tomorrow as the threat develops.



College of DuPage Meteorology
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Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

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Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 121 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
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Here is Geos-5 12Z run. Looks more severe and into Florida as well.

Texas may see the worse they have seen in a while.


Re-intensifies stronger than last run..
skye- I was expecting a Fla passage wednesday between 11am and 2pm EST... what you posted, seems to run a little later in the day for Fla for Wed.

Not an improvement, as temps will go higher as the day passes. Greater chance of low-level supercells...
Interesting read from the Miami NWS Disco...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT NEARING THE WEST
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS/WIND PROFILES AGAIN LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. LLVL HELICITY VALUES,
0-1 KM IS AT 100 M2/S2 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A 40-50 KT LLVL
JET. SPC HAS PLACED THESE AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN WE`RE LOOKING AT STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AS THE MAIN THREATS. ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, SEEMS
AS THOUGH WE MAY HAVE MORE INSTABILITY/CAPE THAN SOME PREVIOUS
EVENTS, AS CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS THICK/WIDESPREAD BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES. MAX T IS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WED. CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAVORABLE
INDICES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY CWASP, FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA WITH THIS FRONT. AGAIN THIS
IS A FEW DAYS AWAY AND UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS.

QUESTION ALSO AS TO HOW THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENTERS THE
REST OF SOUTH FL. ECMWF/GFS DO SEEM TO BREAK UP POTENTIAL SQUALL
LINE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. NOT SURE
IF I`M WILLING TO BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY, MODELS MAY BE
DECREASING INSTABILITY FAR TOO QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AFTER A WARM DAY.
THIS WAS A BIAS OF THE MODELS WITH LAST WEEK`S SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPC WILL OUTLOOK OTHER PARTS OF SOUTH FL AS
THE EVENT NEARS, AND WE STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

Link
Follow

61NWS Phoenix

@NWSPhoenix

If Phoenix hits 80 today, it will be 15 straight days of 80+ in Feb. No other year has seen even 10 straight 80+ days in Feb. #azwx


Currently 81.5F in Phoenix
Wording of latest NWS Mobile discussion is the among the most concerned/concerning I have seen in some time. Sounds like a High Risk upgrade possibility might not be entirely out of the question tomorrow:
...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...



BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY TUESDAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION
BELOW) EXPECT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
DAY BEGINS WITH A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM (BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY) SWINGING EAST OUT OF
TEXAS TO NEAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE DAY. JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...VERY INTENSE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL TEXAS TO NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA (WHERE SOME MODEL OUTPUTS INDICATES A PRESSURE AS LOW AS
988 MB). ALL INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY MID AFTERNOON (AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING).
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER ABOUT
2 PM...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 6 PM. MODELS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN NOTED TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
THE GFS...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING TO ADJUST A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH CURRENT TRENDS. FOR THIS REASON WE LEANED TOWARD A COMBINATION
OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED THAN
MODELS SUGGEST...BELIEVE THE 1500 MUCAPES ADVERTISED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER OUR WESTERN FCST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BY THE NAM ARE NOT
UNREASONABLE. IN ADDITION TO THESE CAPE VALUES...0-1KM SR-HEL VALUES
APPROACHING 400 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM SR-HEL VALUES APPROACHING 500-600
M2/S2 OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE DAY
AS LOW LEVEL 850 JET INCREASES TO AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SPC
HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY...AND STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
TUESDAY...AND BOTH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. 12/DS

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONGLY REFLECTED NEGATIVE TILT
CONFIGURATION TO THE MID LEVEL GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS WILL
INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTAIN MODEST
INSTABILITY. SUBSTANTIAL H50 HEIGHT FALLS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
DECAMETERS ROLLING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA RESULTS
IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A FRONTAL SURFACE LOW WHICH
PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CENTRAL PRESSURES LOWER TO A
RANGE OF 988 TO 993 MILLIBARS NEAR MONROE LOUISIANA BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. FROM THERE...THE INTENSE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO BETWEEN
GREENVILLE AND OXFORD MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY AM TO
JACKSON TENNESSEE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT
THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS AN ANOMALY WITH SURFACE CENTRAL PRESSURES
SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN. CONSIDERING THIS AND
THE REPRESENTATION OF THE PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS IN THE SPECTRAL
MODELS...THE WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
FORECAST TO BE INTENSE OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING.
CONSIDERING THIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
TRENDING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS...HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONGLY CURVED WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BECOMING EXTREMELY HIGH...EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2. THIS
FAVORS WELL DEFINED ROTATION IN STRONGLY DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS...WITH
CONCERNS THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH INSTANCES OF STRONG AND LONG
TRACK TORNADOES.
OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. FORECASTERS
STRONGLY ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO PLAN AHEAD...BE WEATHER AWARE AND
VIGILANT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION FORECAST
TO BE RAPID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO MOVE QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN
THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
Lets Do This !!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO



Blog kicked me out again (refused to let me make a comment). I had to sign out and then sign back in to get the blog to work.
Is that rain down south around West Palm Beach? West of the St Johns looks like rain sparked by the weak sea breeze front.

Quoting 108. Skyepony:

Is that rain down south around West Palm Beach? West of the St Johns looks like rain sparked by the weak sea breeze front.




I had a very brief shower here just south of Fort Myers about 30 minutes ago.
Quoting 97. win1gamegiantsplease:

I'll read more into it when I get a chance, but what time Wednesday is the bad stuff expected to make itself known here?
Well! I come back from a little birthday trip and find we're under the gun again. What is this, the third or fourth Tuesday now this has happened? Must be a pattern.

The timing on this one looks almost identical to last Tuesday/Wednesday so, in the absence of anything else, it's probably a good guide for when it gets to you. Might be a bit slower this time depending on how fast the low deepens as it move through MS. This appears to be a more significant threat than we've had from the previous severe weather events. The biggest threat is larger and longer track tornadoes and very high straight line winds. There are some issues with this event that could change things. Instability may not be as high if we keep getting this mostly stratiform rain, and the low may not deepen as much as shown by the NAM. Nevertheless, my teeth are gnashing a little more for this one than the previous events.
Quoting 108. Skyepony:

Is that rain down south around West Palm Beach? West of the St Johns looks like rain sparked by the weak sea breeze front.


What's with the big green circle on that radar?
112. JRRP
Quoting 112. JRRP:


??
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION...CALM BEFORE THE STORM. BUSY TAF PACKAGE AS
PATTERN GETS ACTIVE WITH TSRA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED BETWEEN I-10 AND THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET OVER THE S
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT SE TX TERMINALS FROM AS EARLY
AS 10Z THROUGH 18Z TUE.

EXPECT CIGS TO DEVELOP AND LOWER AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH
IN RESPONSE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN W TX FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
MAY SEE SOME RESTRICTED VSBY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH ALONG
WITH IFR CIGS FROM 06-12Z. LEANED MORE ON WRF-ARW/NMM FOR POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA 12-16Z. TX TECH 3KM WRF HAS
THIS LINE OF STORMS ABOUT 2-3HRS EARLIER SO WILL MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS TO SEE IF AN EARLIER TIMING MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT LOW
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS WITH TSRA SO WILL KEEP IFR CIGS AS
STORMS MOVE THROUGH. POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THE
LINE OF STORMS.

CIGS IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS NW WINDS DEVELOP. EXPECT VERY GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE


Millions. Millions of households throughout Houston and Harris county will be without power. As much damage as you can expect from a low pressure system without the tropical characteristics.

Short very late night hello from Germany while another day has broken in Fiji with more bad news, unfortunately:

Fiji cyclone death toll reaches 29 after island 'flattened'
12:20 PM Tuesday Feb 23, 2016
WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) " Officials say an island in Fiji took a direct hit from a deadly cyclone as the death toll climbed to 29.
Government spokesman Ewan Perrin told Radio New Zealand on Tuesday that Koro Island had been "pretty much flattened" by Cyclone Winston over the weekend and that eight bodies were found there Monday.
He said there were very few buildings left on the island, which is home to about 4,500 people. ...



Winston now on its way south.

------------------------
Best luck with the impending severe weather in the US tomorrow!
Quoting 100. Skyepony:

Here is Geos-5 12Z run. Looks more severe and into Florida as well.

Texas may see the worse they have seen in a while.


Re-intensifies stronger than last run..




Kinda looks like the worst will be to the north of Houston.


it begins too wrap up over western texas
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A major storm system is expected to affect Ontario Wednesday and Thursday.

A low pressure system developing over the Southern States will track northeast to reach the regions Wednesday morning. This storm is expected to bring significant rain and snow, along with the possibility of freezing rain and ice pellets.

The location of the heaviest rain and snow and areas at risk of receiving freezing rain will depend on the track of the low, which is still uncertain at this time. Please refer to weather statements and local forecasts which will be updated with more details as the storm system evolves.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
This should slow the decline of El nino ssta.

As you all can see the last major WWB didn't do much to El nino 3.4
@ post 127 - oh that looks nice -

wait - -where the he!! is florida??? Did you go and wipe us off the map AGAIN???

c'mon keeper....
its there its under all the water
dude that's mm, hahaha

Lord'a'mercy ya got me all hyped up over MILLIMETERS

hahahaha
Quoting 75. Astrometeor:

I know this is from the last blog, but I went back and read up what I missed...



ODE is the top math required for the met majors here at Millersville U. I'm currently in it, had a test today, totally failed...I have never been able to figure out water going into a tank and then exiting with a solution. And the teacher makes that 25% of the test? :( Ugh. I need a D+ for the major and a C- for the minor.

One exam down and three to go. Physics, American Judiciary, Physical Meteorology (where we have learned about the formation of a snowflake and of a raindrop and of the all important cloud droplet). Exciting. /sarcasm flag on
They say every snow flake is different...So if I checked every fricken snow flake that has ever formed on Earth, no two would be alike...I think it actually does happen , although very rarely...:)

  Kinda stuck here. Normal is 68/45, very dry, I saw 7% today and windy too.
Quoting 70. Tcwx2:

Tomorrow looks to be a quite incredible day. I, being in the middle of the moderate risk, am very worried about us being in a trailer and the risk being overnight. I'd be willing to bet that once the sirens go off we are in a safe place. I cannot remember in my short meteorological career the last time or if we have had a moderate risk centered directly over southern AL like that. The Lord knows best and I pray that we will stay safe.


Meh, with something like that, wouldn't it be cheap insurance to just go to a motel for the night? they are not that solid, but better than a trailer~
Quoting 70. Tcwx2:

Tomorrow looks to be a quite incredible day. I, being in the middle of the moderate risk, am very worried about us being in a trailer and the risk being overnight. I'd be willing to bet that once the sirens go off we are in a safe place. I cannot remember in my short meteorological career the last time or if we have had a moderate risk centered directly over southern AL like that. The Lord knows best and I pray that we will stay safe.



Oh, you'll be safe, my friend. I'm in the slight risk area, but as far wind is concerned, Houston's more under the gun than you are. Pray for me!
Quoting 108. Skyepony:

Is that rain down south around West Palm Beach? West of the St Johns looks like rain sparked by the weak sea breeze front.




Huh. It's a clear starry night here in WPB. We were admiring the brilliant full moon and I even saw a shooting star.
Looks like we are in for some severe weather here in central Texas.
CFS a little scary there.
139. Tcwx2
We are most definitely considering going to our granparents which live in an actual house for the night.
Quoting 134. MontanaZephyr:



Meh, with something like that, wouldn't it be cheap insurance to just go to a motel for the night? they are not that solid, but better than a trailer~

In the large view, significant deficits for Europe and CONUS, stretching up far north along both Atlantic and Pacific North American coasts.



PS: Kinda looks to me like this system'll be over San Antonio in a few hours. Or am I wrong?

If anyone has any prayers to say for Houston, say them now, please.


Never forget:
we walk on hell,
gazing at flowers.%u201D
%u2015 Kobayashi Issa

Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



it begins too wrap up over western texas


It would not be surprising if this ends up being the deadliest and costliest natural disaster in Houston's history. You agree, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
WWLTV.com, New Orleans, LA WWLTV 8:57 p.m. CST February 22, 2016

Nine parishes have closed schools tomorrow due to expected severe weather.​

Part of Southeast Louisiana is under moderate risk of severe weather, and the rest of the area is under enhanced risk. Severe weather could start as early as noon.

Parishes included in the school closures are:


•​East Feliciana
•West Feliciana
•Point Coupee
•East Baton Rouge
•West Baton Rouge
•Iberville
•St. Helena
•Livingston
•Washington Parish
•Tangipahoa
•Ascension

Also, in Bogalusa, police officials said Bogalusa City Schools, Northshore Charter, Bens Ford Christian and Annunciation Catholic schools are closed Tuesday.

Check back with WWLTV.com for more updates.
I just got back from a ski trip at Lake Tahoe. Last weekend was spring skiing with warm temps and sunny skies. I was skiing in my jeans with no jacket. There was more snow than last year, but it wasn't like, a lot of snow. The forecast for the next ten days or so looks dry and sunny and warm. It was 70F when I drove through Redding. Not the greatest forecast. Miracle March?

What happened to the Super El Nino?
Quoting 142. pureet1948:



It would not be surprising if this ends up being the deadliest and costliest natural disaster in Houston's history. You agree, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
I know there's a fascination with alternate universes, but didja already forget about Hurricane Ike?

Wait a minute... Did JFV relocate?
Quoting 145. aquak9:

I know there's a fascination with alternate universes, but didja already forget about Hurricane Ike?

Wait a minute... Did JFV relocate?





1. Look out San Antonio.

2. I'm not thinking along the lines of Hurricane Ike, aquak9. But a redux of the Memorial Day 2015 floods and storms? Yep, that's possible. Wind advisory bothers me even more, I gotta admit.
Quoting 142. pureet1948:



It would not be surprising if this ends up being the deadliest and costliest natural disaster in Houston's history. You agree, KEEPEROFTHEGATE?
no sorry afraid not worse stays to north and east of Houston only major impact will be strong/intense gusty winds
Quoting 147. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no sorry afraid not worse stays to north and east of Houston only major impact will be strong/intense gusty winds


1. How gusty we talkin' bout, KEEPEROFTHEGATE? 40 mph? 50mph? 60 mph?

2. At risk of being banned again, I gotta say it anyway: If you're right, these "strong/intense" gusty winds could put thousands of Houston households in the dark. (Widespread power outages, I mean)

3. Where did you get that worse stays north and east of Houston? That's not what our local mets are saying.
Quoting 145. aquak9:

I know there's a fascination with alternate universes, but didja already forget about Hurricane Ike?

Wait a minute... Did JFV relocate?


Can we have a top troll posts come to a vote? JFV is getting a run for his money.
pureet a little less dramatic could go a long way
its no reason to be afraid
good luck with the god thing
hope that works out for ya



looks like 80 to 90 kmh gust ene of big h tuseday
then some nice 60 maybe 70 kmh gusts on the nw flow of things

If it's the end of the world in Houston, shouldn't Ted Cruz get back to Texas like Chris Christie got back to Jersey for the snowstorm?
pressure down too 983 over lake Ontario

bottoms out at 976 over the mouth of St Lawrence river

Quoting 148. pureet1948:



1. How gusty we talkin' bout, KEEPEROFTHEGATE? 40 mph? 50mph? 60 mph?

2. At risk of being banned again, I gotta say it anyway: If you're right, these "strong/intense" gusty winds could put thousands of Houston households in the dark. (Widespread power outages, I mean)

3. Where did you get that worse stays north and east of Houston? That's not what our local mets are saying.


The weather service has put out a wind advisory. This means be aware. It is below a high wind warning.
I wouldn't be alarmed.

A juicy vort max will trigger severe weather tomorrow but again that is part of your climatology, not unprecedented (incidentally it stays juicy and could cause what for US IN DC is an unseasonable severe weather outbreak wednesday afternoon. Even so discussion of severe weather parameters being good here is suffixed with the qualifier "For February"
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pureet a little less dramatic could go a long way
its no reason to be afraid
good luck with the god thing
hope that works out for ya


Still would like to know where you got your info, KEEPEROFTHEGATE.
Quoting 153. PensacolaBuoy:

If it's the end of the world in Houston, shouldn't Ted Cruz get back to Texas like Chris Christie got back to Jersey for the snowstorm?



Not necessarily. Look at responsibilities of the jobs.

BTW it is not the end of the world in Houston.
out of thin air that's where they come from don't be scared now
Quoting 136. MaineGuy:



Huh. It's a clear starry night here in WPB. We were admiring the brilliant full moon and I even saw a shooting star.

I saw a shooting star about a week ago.

Does look like chaff and plenty. Looks clear from satellite.


Quoting 159. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

out of thin air that's where they come from don't be scared now




I think Houstonians should be scared now. Ted Cruz, your city needs you!




lots of lightening over west central Texas
Quoting 158. georgevandenberghe:



Not necessarily. Look at responsibilities of the jobs.

BTW it is not the end of the world in Houston.
It's always the end of the world for some folks in Houston...
Quoting 158. georgevandenberghe:



Not necessarily. Look at responsibilities of the jobs.

BTW it is not the end of the world in Houston.






Isn't it?
Quoting 160. Skyepony:


I saw a shooting star about a week ago.

Does look like chaff and plenty. Looks clear from satellite.



maybe the navy playing with the planes again
or air force
latest update

Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

A major winter storm is expected to affect Ontario Wednesday and Thursday.

A low pressure system is expected to develop and emerge from Texas tonight, then track northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes and intensify into a moisture laden winter storm Wednesday.

This winter storm is expected to bring significant amounts of rain, snow and ice pellets, along with the possibility of freezing rain.
These types of winter storms from Texas typically bring 15 to 30 mm or more of rain to locales that get mainly rain, and 15 to 30 cm of heavy snow onto regions that get hardest hit by the heaviest snow. A band of freezing rain and ice pellets also often will form over regions near the rain-snow line.

The location of the heaviest rain and snow and areas at risk of receiving freezing rain will depend on the track of the low, which is still uncertain at this time.

Travelling conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate Wednesday as the snow arrives.

Please refer to weather statements and local forecasts which will be updated with more details as the winter storm evolves and gets closer to the region. Winter storm watches and various warnings may be required as the event draws closer.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

Why do people keep quoting We've Got a Problem, Houston as if it were a serious conversation? It's driving me bonkers. Misery loves company.
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pureet a little less dramatic could go a long way
its no reason to be afraid
good luck with the god thing
hope that works out for ya
to be honest gives me something too watch kinda slow
Quoting 145. aquak9:

I know there's a fascination with alternate universes, but didja already forget about Hurricane Ike?

Wait a minute... Did JFV relocate?


You know, now that you mention it, he does kinda post like him. But no shower curtains yet so maybe not.
Quoting 168. Alagirl:

Why do people keep quoting We've Got a Problem, Houston as if it were a serious conversation? It's driving me bonkers. Misery loves company.


When the blog is slow, people will occasionally disregard the "Do Not Feed Trolls" signs just to see what happens. Every now and then something so inane happens that it lives in infamy long after said troll vanishes into the endless void of the intartubes. It's shower curtains and tunnels all the way down.
How's the wind keeper? Can't be any worse than when I listen to Trump talk.
Couple of brief showers put me up to 9.9" for Feb here in Acme wa. Clear and cool 35° lots of sun in the forcast…at least until the weekend, thinking pretty seriously about playing some hooky.
Chaff is readily recognized on dual polarity products. Low correlation coefficients (blue) indicate that a return is strongly polarized, chaff polarizes the return because it consists of metal fibers. Higher coefficients (orange, red, pink) indicate actual precipitation, which is largely unpolarized; ice and heavy oblong water drops can polarize the return to a small degree, but nothing like the polarized return from radar chaff.



If anyone has anything to say to me......
Cody Fields ‏@wxtrackercody 6h6 hours ago
The setup across Cent/E North Carolina Wed is easily the most impressive since 4/16/11. Expecting a ramp-up in wording for SPC's Day 2.


Hel-lo. Is this latest HRRR run saying what you've been trying to tell me all along, KEEPEROFTHEGATE? The worst to happen to the North of H-town?
Detailed Houston Area Forecast

Tonight

A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Tuesday

Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Windy, with a southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Windy, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.


Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 63. Breezy, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.


Wednesday Night

Clear, with a low around 42. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.


Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 68.


Thursday Night

Clear, with a low around 44.


Friday

Sunny, with a high near 66.


Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 46.


Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 72.


Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 55.


Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.


Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61.


Monday

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76.


Could postfrontal winds of up to 60 MPH be possible in Houston on Wednesday. Why do they keep raising the wind speed?
180. vis0
welcome back sar2401,  not seeing Current Day 1 Outlook on the stormpreductioncentre, hopefully just glitch on my browser. day2 and 3 i see.
Quoting 180. vis0:

welcome back sar2401,  not seeing Current Day 1 Outlook on the stormpreductioncentre, hopefully just glitch on my browser. day2 and 3 i see.

This is the current day one, just came out. Nothing has changed much. Might be in trouble down here.

The latest from Birmingham. They don't usually talk like this...

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE...

WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AT THIS LATE HOUR. A VERY STRONG
500 MB CHANNELED JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND WILL MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN ON TUESDAY...CARVING OUT ONE
OF THE MOST...IF NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I
HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BELOW 990MB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH INCREDIBLE WIND FIELDS AT ALL
LEVELS BY 00Z WED.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GAINING ORGANIZATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY
SHORT RANGE MODELS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST
AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT TRACKS
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ALL THE WHILE A VERY STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE...SOME OF THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH TEXAS HEAT AND AN EML MUCH
LIKE IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THIS EML SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF TO DISRUPT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT IS
MOST CONCERNING IS THE CONSENSUS THAT A 700MB DRYLINE/FRONT...
MARKED BY A SHARP THETA-E DROP AND ORIGINATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AT THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BECOME INTENSE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE
A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF
70-90 KT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD YIELD
A BAND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY STRONGLY
FAVORS A THREAT FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.

87/GRANTHAM
Sar, I live in a crackerjack box of a condo, and this is coming through in the overnight hours for you and I, correct? I don't remember this sort of doomsday talk from Bmghm in a long time, if ever. Plus, we in eastern areas of AL seem likely to have some sun peak through. I don't think I will be able to sleep tomorrow night! Be safe. My cats and I will be in my pantry closet.
Quoting 182. sar2401:

The latest from Birmingham. They don't usually talk like this...

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE...

WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AT THIS LATE HOUR. A VERY STRONG
500 MB CHANNELED JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND WILL MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN ON TUESDAY...CARVING OUT ONE
OF THE MOST...IF NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I
HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. ...
SPC AC 230542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SE LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL...AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SRN LA EWD TO FAR SW GA/CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK FROM
THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
CNTRL TX INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE
TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR
MS VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THE INITIALLY
OPEN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY TUESDAY
EVENING AS IT MATURES. STRONG SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WHILE A
STRONG MID-LEVEL JET PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE RESULTING
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
TSTMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LWR MS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST.

...UPPER TX COAST EWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...
SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS NRN LA AND MS. AS
MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE LWR MS
VALLEY AND GULF COAST. THE CHARACTER OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN IS THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 60S...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH POOR
LAPSE RATES RESULTS IN RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY. WARM SECTOR IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS AROUND 61-64 DEG
F AND MLCAPE LESS THAN 700 J PER KG.

DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET /80-100 KT AT 500 MB/
PIVOTS AROUND THE UPPER LOW IT WILL EJECT OUT OVER THE WARM SECTOR
AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN A
SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR DISCRETE TSTMS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 50-60 KT. SOME GUIDANCE HAS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES
OVER 400 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OVER 600 M2/S2. ANY
PRE-FRONTAL...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLUAR AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...INCLUDING TORNADOES. A
MORE DISCRETE MODE MAY ALSO BE REALIZED WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE
RESULTING FAST STORM MOTION TAKING STORMS INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO PROBABLE WITH AN INCREASED DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL.

HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN TORNADOES CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM PORTIONS OF
SRN LA NEWD INTO SRN AL WITH THE BULK OF THIS THREAT OCCURRING AFTER
00Z. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER/KERR.. 02/23/2016
I here a popular weather station is in need of help. You might consider applying there. I here they thrive on drama.

Quoting 179. pureet1948:

Could postfrontal winds of up to 60 MPH be possible in Houston on Wednesday. Why do they keep raising the wind speed?



Possibility I would like to share with y'all: Storm system could reach Houston/Harris county sooner than 4:00 A.M. Lack of radiational heating might make the storms less severe. Is that a viable option?
Quoting 185. swflurker:

I here a popular weather station is in need of help. You might consider applying there. I here they thrive on drama.




Not drama. Just want to now if it's possible.
The spc is a place to look for warnings in your area.
Link

Quoting 188. pureet1948:



Not drama. Just want to now if it's possible.
Quoting 182. sar2401:

The latest from Birmingham. They don't usually talk like this...

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE...

WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS AT THIS LATE HOUR. A VERY STRONG
500 MB CHANNELED JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND WILL MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN ON TUESDAY...CARVING OUT ONE
OF THE MOST...IF NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH I
HAVE EVER SEEN AT SUCH A LOW LATITUDE. VERY ANOMALOUS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BELOW 990MB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH INCREDIBLE WIND FIELDS AT ALL
LEVELS BY 00Z WED.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS GAINING ORGANIZATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY
SHORT RANGE MODELS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST
AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS IT TRACKS
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ALL THE WHILE A VERY STRONG ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WILL MOVE FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE...SOME OF THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTH TEXAS HEAT AND AN EML MUCH
LIKE IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY. THIS EML SHOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM EXTENDING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF TO DISRUPT THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. WHAT IS
MOST CONCERNING IS THE CONSENSUS THAT A 700MB DRYLINE/FRONT...
MARKED BY A SHARP THETA-E DROP AND ORIGINATING FROM THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...WILL SURGE NORTHEAST AT THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL BECOME INTENSE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS DIFFERENTIAL
THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE
A GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 0-6KM SHEAR OF
70-90 KT NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE CONVECTIVE AXIS SHOULD YIELD
A BAND OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. VERY LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH EXCEPTIONAL LOW-LEVEL HELICITY STRONGLY
FAVORS A THREAT FOR STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG.

87/GRANTHAM


Stay safe, model progs look scary, you're close enough to the moderate risk that you might as well prepare for one, over here, lower risk is expected but with such a strong system and us being close to the enhanced, real world weather naturally doesn't follow bullseyes, so we have to keep a close eye over here as well.
Quoting 153. PensacolaBuoy:

If it's the end of the world in Houston, shouldn't Ted Cruz get back to Texas like Chris Christie got back to Jersey for the snowstorm?



Well, Christie got here by the skin of his teeth. He snuck back from the campaign trail and quietly declared a State of Emergency right on the onset of the storm when neighboring states made those preparations days ahead of time. Once the storm was over he scoffed at the damage in Cape May and ran right back to New Hampshire.
San Antonio, TX (KEWX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting 94. RobertWC:



True, but we killed the passenger pigeons, shot the bison herds and leveled the old growth forests. What killed off the Rocky Mountain Spotted Locusts is a wonderful biological question. What killed off the passenger pigeons, shot the bison herds and leveled the old growth forests. Was us.

The locust thing was solved. It was found they had a single breeding ground along some river bank. When that got argrarinized the locusts disappeared, though no one knew back then.
Huge SOI crash going on.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 23 Feb 2016
Average for last 30 days -13.17
Average for last 90 days -15.67
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -46.11

Test
Next week's severe weather forecast has been making what is to occur this week not look so bad..

Here is some from next week's..



I wouldn't get too excited about snow that far south. A week out the freeze line has draped a little lower than reality this season..

Good Morning. A little glitch with the site this morning and Yall have already posted the radar loops (looking very ominous) so here is the overall set-up: that dry slot across the Gulf along with day time heating issues does not bode well for later today.

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

The worst today may stay north of Houston.
please stay alert and safe folks ................................................
And finally the current vort at the surface:



Quoting 201. LargoFl:

please stay alert and safe folks ................................................


Take note that S. Florida is in the "no severe" weather area. Looks very familiar to some previous severe weather outlooks. Unfortunately many of the tornadoes we've had over the past few weeks have been in S. Florida.
The warm flow from the Gulf along the jet is going to add some fuel to the t-storms with the upward lift:



SOI tanking and a robust WWB occurring may lead to El-Nino this Fall.

WWB


CFSv2
Quoting 183. Alagirl:

Sar, I live in a crackerjack box of a condo, and this is coming through in the overnight hours for you and I, correct? I don't remember this sort of doomsday talk from Bmghm in a long time, if ever. Plus, we in eastern areas of AL seem likely to have some sun peak through. I don't think I will be able to sleep tomorrow night! Be safe. My cats and I will be in my pantry closet.
I see our always reliable blog is working again. Ahem...

We'll be OK. Even your crackerbox will withstand most anything but a direct hit. It does look like the worst of it will be coming through about midnight for us. There's a dry slot moving over us now, and I only got a bit of drizzle down here, so the atmosphere has not been worked over like it was further west and north. Any sun today will only add fuel to the fire. The low in South Texas id what will be headed our way. It's already down to 1000 999mb and will probably deepen to about 992mb as it transits far north Alabama. It's the combination of the low and a 125 mph jest streak that's going to cause the severe weather. It's not a done deal though. If we either get more rain or enough prefrontal thunderstorms, the destabilization of the atmosphere might not occur to the extend forecast. That should help keep the storms associated with the squall line down to a dull roar. There's no way I'll be able to sleep tonight either. All we can do is keep an eye on the radar and the storm reports coming in from upstream. We can just hope for the best for now.

sick?
First storm report of the am with some trees down and damage to a few homes in Texas; will give us an idea of where the potential straight line wind damage will slowly start to push east along the Gulf coast later today:

last3hours Reports Graphic

Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:



Take note that S. Florida is in the "no severe" weather area. Looks very familiar to some previous severe weather outlooks. Unfortunately many of the tornadoes we've had over the past few weeks have been in S. Florida.
yes, I sure remember the last front that came thru,didnt down there get a few tornado's?..guess tomorrow we all in florida need to stay alert
TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...ARE THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT THREATS.

TIMING...WE COULD START SEEING DISCRETE SUPER CELLS OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MID THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND BY
EVENING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. TIMING ON THE SQUALL LINE IS A BIT MORE
CHALLENGING AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL ORGANIZING BUT AVAILABLE DATA
SUGGESTS IT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR MS COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING AND THROUGH THE MOBILE AREA AROUND 6 TO 9 PM AND
THROUGH OUR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
Posting out of Baton Rouge. Large portion of schools in our area were closed this morning and I believe some work places are following suit. I'm currently at work situated a few miles from the Mississippi river bridge with a pretty clear line of sight due west. I'll update once the weather starts to go sour.
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:



Take note that S. Florida is in the "no severe" weather area. Looks very familiar to some previous severe weather outlooks. Unfortunately many of the tornadoes we've had over the past few weeks have been in S. Florida.


That's just often how it is in Florida when it comes to severe weather. Despite the high density of severe thunderstorm and tornadoes that occur every year, you'll never really see a moderate risk in Florida. Conversely the northeast sees about half as much severe weather, but will usually still get moderate risks. I remember way back when, slight risks would be even more rare to be seen, in 2007 I remember it was a big deal to see a slight risk in Central Florida. There ended up being widespread severe weather, several tornadoes, and one was an EF3.

A lot of it has to do with convective systems originating from ocean then to land, it makes for a lower confidence forecast, and the SPC usually errs on the side of caution, and understandably so. After all, a forecast isn't just exactly what a forecaster thinks might happen, but is also a confidence level output. The SPC does seem to issue risks in the peninsula more often than they used to though, so they're probably adjusting to deal with the weird antics that occur over the state better than in the past, lol.
Find it odd, in terms of record keeping, that global sea ice area has reached its minimum and it's not being discussed.
"What's there to discuss about", perhaps, is the feeling.
Sar and Patrap, along with many other regular members are going to be great first hand observers today. A taste of what March, April, and May could bring with El-Nino slowly ebbing and still throwing energy around in amazing displays across the world. Thoughts to all in harms way, stay safe out there. Your dog may be in for a rough next two days Sar.
Quoting 214. Jedkins01:



That's just often how it is in Florida when it comes to severe weather. Despite the high density of severe thunderstorm and tornadoes that occur every year, you'll never really see a moderate risk in Florida. Conversely the northeast sees about half as much severe weather, but will usually still get moderate risks. I remember way back when, slight risks would be even more rare to be seen, in 2007 I remember it was a big deal to see a slight risk in Central Florida. There ended up being widespread severe weather, several tornadoes, and one was an EF3.

A lot of it has to do with convective systems originating from ocean then to land, it makes for a lower confidence forecast, and the SPC usually errs on the side of caution, and understandably so. After all, a forecast isn't just exactly what a forecaster thinks might happen, but is also a confidence level output. The SPC does seem to issue risks in the peninsula more often than they used to though, so they're probably adjusting to deal with the weird antics that occur over the state better than in the past, lol.


Its strange as both Euro operational & Euro parallel models are showing very intense convection moving into West Central FL late morning tomorrow while the GFS shows light precip. When is the GFS ever going to be correct with precip in FL as that model can never seem to get it right.
Agree with the comments below as to some of the past history on SPC outlooks for Florida. At those times, with severe weather threatening in Florida, your best friend is your local NWS office that works overtime during these types of events to sample local conditions and the evolving synoptic environment; they will often issue the local tornado watches before SPC jumps on board. Florida is a tough nut to crack sometimes when it comes to a potential tornado threat (when some strong cells go severe and drop 2 or 3 tornadoes over a relatively small region).
Quoting 175. Forsaken:

Chaff is readily recognized on dual polarity products. Low correlation coefficients (blue) indicate that a return is strongly polarized, chaff polarizes the return because it consists of metal fibers. Higher coefficients (orange, red, pink) indicate actual precipitation, which is largely unpolarized; ice and heavy oblong water drops can polarize the return to a small degree, but nothing like the polarized return from radar chaff.

I visited a company that made chaff years ago, they had a big bin full to show me. They did not precisely identify the material but it was stringy and light. You would expect it to polarize the return if the strings align somehow in the wind. If the orientation of the scatterer is random, then not so much.
I do remember a moderate risk over North Florida several years ago and we were in bulls-eye that afternoon from SPC (and I was in Marianna, Florida at the time). While it looked really bad for us, with the tornado watches issued and dark windy skies, the tornado that materialized was about 20 miles to our North in Alabama which flattened a school and killed a few people near Geneva/Enterprise.
Last few days of Super Rapid Scan Loops


Visible


Other Choices

Quoting 216. DeepSeaRising:

Sar and Patrap, along with many other regular members are going to be great first hand observers today. A taste of what March, April, and May could bring with El-Nino slowly ebbing and still throwing energy around in amazing displays across the world. Thoughts to all in harms way, stay safe out there. Your dog may be in for a rough next two days Sar.
Good morning DRS...There are indications that as time goes by, these systems causing the severe weather will slow there forward movement, offering several severe outbreaks from the same system. This pattern should be well established into the spring...It very well be a bad year for twisters and other types of severe weather.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN GA TO THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST AND MOVE OFF THE GA COAST
BY 18Z...AND TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL FL BY 15-18Z. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY...LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STRONG WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH PERHAPS SOME HAIL. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THEY TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA...BUT FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK. AS
SUCH...ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS CONDITIONAL AND MORE MARGINAL SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM NEAR SARASOTA TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
Quoting 220. guygee:

I visited a company that made chaff years ago, they had a big bin full to show me. They did not precisely identify the material but it was stringy and light. You would expect it to polarize the return if the strings align somehow in the wind. If the orientation of the scatterer is random, then not so much.

Someone called me yesterday asking if they'd been chaffing us lately, brought some by they found floating down and on their car. It's been really heavy this week. Seen it tests out to be mostly Aluminum, looked like it. I should have took a picture.
Ro- Ro- Rotate your owl

Rotate your owl
for science

(if ya don't get it, google it)

Weather relevance? The owl does not look pleased, and neither do I, seeing what's starting to wrap up overhead in Texas.
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE TONIGHT.
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL...BUT CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. TIMING
OF THIS THREAT IS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN
ZONES...THEN 9 AM TO 1 PM CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES.

IN ADDITION...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 10 AM
WEDNESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREA
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. SPOTTERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Everyone down along the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye to the sky and have their Weather radio's turned on ..

Stormy weather is going to be crossing the gulf states this afternoon as thunderstorms are already building west of the NO area !!
Several school systems have cancelled classes near and around Lake Pontchartrain in preparation for the weather event. Most are on the North Shore, but some as far west as LSU (closing at noon). I didn't realize it was THAT severe of an event. I've seen schools here (cent ind) in session during SPC issued PDS.

nola.com link below

Link

Looking at up to 1.5 inches of rain and 3-6 inches of snow over next 48 up here.
231. elioe
Mild and pretty beautiful winter weather here:

Road 3 - Lakalaiva Tampere Finland
14:49 local
Temperature: -2.7C (air) -0.4C (road surface)

I hope that SE US and Norfolk Island avoid damage from their severe weather threats!
Quoting 223. hydrus:

Good morning DRS...There are indications that as time goes by, these systems causing the severe weather will slow there forward movement, offering several severe outbreaks from the same system. This pattern should be well established into the spring...It very well be a bad year for twisters and other types of severe weather.


Yeah. We get ours wednesday in DC from this system. It is Feburary and won't be as bad as a mid spring event but it's still notable.
Although the focus is on the gulf coast today (as it should be), for those expecting snow up north in the next few days: here is a live webcam of a nesting pair of bald eagles near South Bend IN. Should be pretty cool to see them interact in 8 inches of snow and 35mph gusts.

nd.edu link below

Link
8 , 12 , and 16 hours NAM 4K...Looks bad...

Quoting 236. hydrus:

8 , 12 , and 16 hours NAM 4K...Looks bad...




Do you have the 20 through 36 hours by any chance?
Reading back through the last page it appears I have survived yet another complete Houston annihilation. If I had a penny for each time Pureet has destroyed Houston over the past year…
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 909 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON KY - KJKL 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 717 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 658 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 221. weathermanwannabe:

I do remember a moderate risk over North Florida several years ago and we were in bulls-eye that afternoon from SPC (and I was in Marianna, Florida at the time). While it looked really bad for us, with the tornado watches issued and dark windy skies, the tornado that materialized was about 20 miles to our North in Alabama which flattened a school and killed a few people near Geneva/Enterprise.

If memory serves, some of those fatalities occurred when part of the high school collapsed on students seeking shelter in a hallway.
Looking nasty down south. Hope everyone down there stays safe! Looks like the worst is working its way across the Texas/Louisiana border right now. I'd post the radar loop but I don't know how to post gifs into the blog.
Quoting 241. Patrap:

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     a href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPAH/1602231509.w fus53.html" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;"
rel="nofollow" target="_blank">
PADUCAH KY - KPAH 909 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON WV - a href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KRLX/wwus51.chunk .html" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;"
rel="nofollow" target="_blank">KRLX 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON KY - KJKL 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 717 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 658 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016


I believe that some of these are tornado drills
Quoting 241. Patrap:

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 909 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON KY - KJKL 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 717 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 658 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

Kentucky and WV???
246. MahFL
Odd, several NWS offices issuing test tornado warnings on a possible outbreak day.
Quoting 239. ILwthrfan:



Do you have the 20 through 36 hours by any chance?


Play around on Levi's site (Tropicaltidbits.com)
Here's 24 hours (Nam 4km Composite Reflectivity)
Link
I have heard there is a chance the risk of tornadoes gets pushed to A HIGH RISK...  Any validity to that?
182
WFUS53 KLMK 231507
TORLMK
KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-05 3-057-061-067-073-
079-085-087-091-093-097-099-103-111-113-123-137-1 41-151-155-163-167-
169-171-179-181-183-185-207-209-211-213-215-217-2 23-227-229-239-
231515-
/T.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0001.160223T1507Z-160223T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TEST
..TORNADO WARNING
TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1007 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

..THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HENRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
HARRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
BOYLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
HARDIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
BOURBON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
CLARK COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. UNTIL 1022 AM EST/922 AM CST/

* THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE.

THIS IS A TEST. REPEAT...THIS IS A TEST TORNADO WARNING MESSAGE.
THERE IS NO SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. THIS TEST WARNING
MESSAGE IS PART OF THE ANNUAL KENTUCKY TORNADO DRILL. IF THIS WERE
AN ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...YOU WOULD BE GIVEN INFORMATION
ABOUT THE HAZARD. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...KENTUCKY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND THE KENTUCKY WEATHER PREPAREDNESS
COMMITTEE...ENCOURAGE THE USE OF THIS TIME TO ACTIVATE AND REVIEW
YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS.

REPEATING...THIS HAS BEEN A TEST TORNADO WARNING MESSAGE FOR THE
2016 KENTUCKY TORNADO DRILL. THIS CONCLUDES THE TEST.

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.
Only the 2 Texas NWS station are or were Nado Warned cell.

TORNADO WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 717 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 658 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

All the others were TEST from those NWS offices .


The tests were done in anticipation of the incoming threat downstream in time.
Quoting 240. Greg01:

Reading back through the last page it appears I have survived yet another complete Houston annihilation. If I had a penny for each time Pureet has destroyed Houston over the past year…
Troll maybe.
This could be a long night for S. Alabama and the Florida Panhandle not what we need after last week. Just hope no more EF-3!!!
Quoting 246. MahFL:

Odd, several NWS offices issuing test tornado warnings on a possible outbreak day.
Ah, that makes more sense. I saw those warnings, looked at the radars and literally said, "There's not even rain in Kentucky or West Virginia right now!" I agree though, you'd think on a day with a heightened chance of severe storms they would re-schedule any planned tests for the day.
fwiw highest torcon values are a 6 for west FL panhandle, southern AL and southern MS
Quoting 246. MahFL:

Odd, several NWS offices issuing test tornado warnings on a possible outbreak day.
Not considering there is a significant outbreak coming..Good time to make sure everything works properly.
258. MahFL
Quoting 249. lostinohio:

I have heard there is a chance the risk of tornadoes gets pushed to A HIGH RISK...  Any validity to that?



The SPC does not mention it, where did you hear it from ?
Storm Prediction Center

A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes will be likely over portions of the Gulf Coast states Tuesday. A few of the tornadoes may be strong, especially Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.

For additional details, see the current Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO).
260. MahFL
Quoting 257. hydrus:

Not considering there is a significant outbreak coming..Good time to make sure everything works properly.


Na, it's a stupid idea.
Winston is still churning, and today reach an accumulated cyclone energy of 47, higher than any other storm last year (including the northern hemisphere)

The test were done in rural areas where the SAME system encountered a few issues last storm.

By LAW the NWS have to test the public SAME system and they did.








Quoting 258. MahFL:



The SPC does not mention it, where did you hear it from ?
Some METS were talking of it here in the south, and now i see Dr Forbes has torcons of 7 and 8.....
Quoting 239. ILwthrfan:



Do you have the 20 through 36 hours by any chance?
Link
Quoting 263. Patrap:



The test were done in rural areas where the SAME system encountered a few issues last system.

By LAW the NWS have to test the public SAME system and they did.








Is there a certain time frame that the tests had to be done? Obviously the need for everything to work properly is a must, it just seems ill timed to test them when there are actual tornado warnings being issued.
267. MahFL
Quoting 264. lostinohio:


Some METS were talking of it here in the south, and now i see Dr Forbes has torcons of 7 and 8.....



Yikes, 8 ?
Quoting 260. MahFL:



Na, it's a stupid idea.
To you maybe.
Quoting 266. LuckySD:

Is there a certain time frame that the tests had to be done? Obviously the need for everything to work properly is a must, it just seems ill timed to test them when there are actual tornado warnings being issued.


The TEST wording is specific when Broadcast.

There were only 2 Warned cells in Texas and they occurred before the TESTS.

It is a NON issue as only the folks in the Test areas heard the TEST Broadcast.


The focus is on the system, not any NWS SAME tests way ahead of the system.
The NWS has put the so-called 'sweet spot' in eastern NC under the gun for tomorrow, the same area hit hard by tornadoes in 2011. Basically draw a triangle from RDU to Cape Hatteras to Camp Lejeune. I'll be on the lookout tomorrow but I fear the worst will be today's severe mess. Take it easy if you're south of I-20..

Quoting 216. DeepSeaRising:

Sar and Patrap, along with many other regular members are going to be great first hand observers today. A taste of what March, April, and May could bring with El-Nino slowly ebbing and still throwing energy around in amazing displays across the world. Thoughts to all in harms way, stay safe out there. Your dog may be in for a rough next two days Sar.


Poor Radar :( I wonder if he named the dog after the MASH character.
Dr Forbes just upped  all of S LA. AL MS..... torcon 8....   central AL   7
Quoting 269. Patrap:



The TEST wording is specific when Broadcast.

There were only 2 Warned cells in Texas and they occurred before the TESTS.

It is a NON issue as only the folks in the Test areas heard the TEST Broadcast.


The focus is on the system, not any NWS SAME tests way ahead of the system.
Fair enough. Thank you for the clarifications. It was just surprising to see KY and WV on the lists of Warnings you posted.
Quoting 174. plantmoretrees:

Couple of brief showers put me up to 9.9" for Feb here in Acme wa. Clear and cool 35° lots of sun in the forcast…at least until the weekend, thinking pretty seriously about playing some hooky.


I hear the "Sun Flu" is going around. I'd consider calling out too, but I get to enjoy nap time on my own from 12-3 every day so it's not really necessary... Seriously though, when I managed a large department in a retail store we had more call outs during the first few gloriously sunny days than during winter storms or during the real flu...
Quoting 273. LuckySD:

Fair enough. Thank you for the clarifications. It was just surprising to see KY and WV on the lists of Warnings you posted.


So was I, and if I used my protocol that will be used when we get busy, it would have NEVER made this page.

I and others always use the format developed here for rolling severe...a long time ago.

I will roll info specific to La?ms and will pass off to Fla when the time comes.

I make it a RULE to roll info only for my area that Im familiar with. That helps when one adds a radar to locate and follow a WARND CELL.

I try to get every Severe T-storm and Nado warned cell as fast as possible.

ALWAYS rely on your NOAA Radio, and your LOCAL Emg Mgt calls as well as your local TV mets.

Knowing what is occurring is a good hedge against not knowing, that way prudent and immediate action can be taken to PROTECT LIFE first.






Quoting 272. lostinohio:

Dr Forbes just upped  all of S LA. AL MS..... torcon 8....   central AL   7



Correct, here are the maps just posted on his FB page. If anyone is curious, FB will be the only place TOR:CON maps get posted.



Unusually higher then normal risk for tornadoes here in the Florida peninsula. We may get our first enhanced outlook ever. Last time the peninsula was under a moderate risk was in March of 2007, where nothing even happened. The NAM and WRF model radar simulation shows rare super cells lining up along the Peninsula. This is going to be a very dangerous day tomorrow. Not to take away from the Carolinas bigger threat, but we here in Florida could get a whomping as well.
ALSO, note the NWS office is HIGHLIGHTED in GREEN showing that it is a TEST for those Stations.

All the ACTIVE Warned cells are in BLUE.


Dupage severe weather warnings page

I strive to get Nado warnings posted within the minute it is loaded into the Dupage page, which usually takes place within 5 secs of a NWS warned cell.

Hope this clears up the process I use here.
Models are still going crazy with this system...GFS shows 1 inch or less for Carbondale but about 6-10 inches not too far west...NAM 4KM showing something similar, but 2 inches for Carbondale...wonder if Paducah will issue an advisory.
I dont EVER recall a SE Louisiana TORCON of 8, going by memory only though.

its starting to heat up already in the central caribbean and wow is it dry
also very dusty and many people struggling with sinuses etc I am hearing lots of people coughing
Quoting 281. Patrap:

I dont EVER recall a SE Louisiana TORCON of 8, going by memory only though.



Stay safe down there - and thanks for posting the warnings...
New Orleans/Slidell

Previous discussion... /issued 331 am CST Tuesday Feb 23 2016/

Short term...
Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the majority of the area with a moderate risk
of severe thunderstorms for today. Moderate risks are not common
to begin with but are especially rare along the Gulf Coast. System
already getting started and deepening over south Texas. The surface
low is disorganized at the moment but this will change over the
next several hours. Severe ts are moving out ahead of the low over
south Texas. This trend will continue through the day over our area
as well. Should expect to see ts cells ahead of the main frontal
axis by late morning and along the frontal axis as the low ejects
NE. The surface low continues to deepen as it approaches Memphis by
midnight tonight. The GFS has pressures down to 989mb while the
Euro sports a 982mb low. This is obviously the reason for the wind
advisories today and tonight. These pressures are roughly
equivalent to a strong tropical storm or weak Cat 1 hurricane. But
there are significant differences between the two types of
systems. Tropical systems (tropospheric warm core)focus more
energy near the surface and center of the storm while baroclinic
(stratospheric warm core...tropospheric cold core) systems tend
to focus their energy near the upper low about 8 miles up. At the
surface of a cold core system like this...the energy is spread out over a large area to produce the cold front...warm front...and
surface low. Enough with the met lesson.

No difference in thinking this morning. All dynamic variables are
still very impressive. Srh values from 0-3km and 0-6km are higher
than I have seen in a long time. This will help any ts cells
rotate as they develop. It will also make it easier to produce
tornadic weather. One or two of these could be rather strong.
Bow echoes on radar will be very indicative of damaging straight
line winds. Large hail will also be another issue with these
storms as wbz heights will be around 10k feet with the freezing
level only about 100 feet higher. This is not very normal in a non-
winter weather strongly convective system here on the Gulf Coast. The
only thing that does not stand out is the mass fields. Although
middle 60 deep temperatures should be enough with the cooling aloft to allow
the latent heating process to be quite efficient as this moisture
is lifted. All activity today will be surface based as the local and level of free convection
are very close to the surface.
The very beginning of the activity should start to move into the
western most portion of the area ahead of the front by 11am. The
cold front will move through this same area around 4pm. This means
that each individual Point of reference over the area can expect
about 5 to 6 hours of dealing with inclement weather today. Severe
weather will then begin to move through Pascagoula around 7pm and the
cold front should exit the area around midnight tonight. All in
all...the entire scenario of single cell ts ahead of the front as
well as the front itself will traverse the entire area starting at
11am today and ending around midnight.

We should see a clearing line behind the front but the thermal
trough on the back side will bring cloud cover and rain back over
the area fairly rapidly Wednesday morning before sunrise. No severe
ts will occur once the front moves through but winds will be
quite strong and will cause driving to be very difficult
especially in open areas.
Safe is the rule of the day seems, and thanx.

Only thing I am doing for this is putting the Jeep in the Garage to avoid any Hail damage.

Quoting 249. lostinohio:

I have heard there is a chance the risk of tornadoes gets pushed to A HIGH RISK...%uFFFD Any validity to that?

Possible. And depends on how the rain evolves and the rest of the event evolves. There's some limited instability... BUT be wary anytime you see SPC Convective Outlook mention a 100kt midlevel jet, as they do this morning, THE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS A 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS SRN TX ATTM WILL ROTATE EWD AND LATER NEWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

No telling exactly where a tornado will touchdown until it does. Be wary and make plans for your day as though a tornado will come your way. There is a tornado risk from supercells and from bowing segments...

WHILE MIXED STORM MODES ARE ANTICIPATED -- PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME CELLULAR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THEPERIOD. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS THAT EVOLVE WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION.



Please click the link in first paragraph above for details.

edit: spelling
Quoting 266. LuckySD:

Is there a certain time frame that the tests had to be done? Obviously the need for everything to work properly is a must, it just seems ill timed to test them when there are actual tornado warnings being issued.


Yes there are rules as to how often they must be tested and I agree that it is poor timing to test during a weather event.

Should have cancelled and tested later. Although sometimes that means you are 'breaking the rule' because they waited too long to schedule the test.
Quoting 277. reedzone:

Unusually higher then normal risk for tornadoes here in the Florida peninsula. We may get our first enhanced outlook ever. Last time the peninsula was under a moderate risk was in March of 2007, where nothing even happened. The NAM and WRF model radar simulation shows rare super cells lining up along the Peninsula. This is going to be a very dangerous day tomorrow. Not to take away from the Carolinas bigger threat, but we here in Florida could get a whomping as well.
yes indeed..folks really do need to stay alert to whats happening around them in florida tomorrow,especially along the I-4 corridor northward.
Quoting 287. Patrap:

Safe is the rule of the day seems, and thanx.

Only thing I am doing for this is putting the Jeep in the Garage to avoid any Hail damage.



Nice move. Round 1, inbound from the south.
Recently taken photo of an aurora over Iceland, looking like a 'phoenix'. Glad I'm not superstitious. Wonder what our ancient ancestors who believed in 'signs' and 'portents' would have made of it?




Check out the cell just entering the frame at the bottom of the image. It's huge and nasty looking.
294. MahFL
Cu field popping over northern FL :



Quoting 293. Sfloridacat5:

Check out the cell just entering the frame at the bottom of the image. It's huge and nasty looking.

This early too...Sign of things to come.
If everything verifies and comes together, then tonight is going to be scary if there's already an outbreak ongoing and getting stronger into the night for Alabama and the Pan Handle. You get the feeling with the cancellations and people having been through this before back in 2011 and more recently in Hattisburg, people are taking this very seriously. Don't wan't to hand out too many high risks. They are for the top end outbreaks. And we're only in February. People know, that's the most important thing. This may well get upgraded to high risk over night I think. Let's hope not. Really hope this under performs big time, but it's beginning to look like a major outbreak is possible. Maybe even a historic major outbreak. Not trying to dramatize, just has a legit chance to happen. Better to prepare as such and it not than not and have it be.
Sfloridacat5......The cell in the lower left IS huge! I'm watching the cell south of Morgan City, offshore. It has that 'look' to it.
Quoting 292. yonzabam:

Recently taken photo of an aurora over Iceland, looking like a 'phoenix'. Glad I'm not superstitious. Wonder what our ancient ancestors who believed in 'signs' and 'portents' would have made of it?





Great pic Yonz...Had to save that one..
299. MahFL
My father in law lives in S Miss...



ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 231339
ALZ000-FLZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-231800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States
later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Southern Alabama
Southern Mississippi
Southern Louisiana
Western Florida Panhandle

* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread damaging winds
Isolated large hail

* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes
will be likely over portions of the Gulf Coast states Tuesday. A
few of the tornadoes may be strong, especially Tuesday afternoon
and into Tuesday night.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Marsh.. 02/23/2016

$$
931 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4 AM. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 4PM
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND LASTING AS LATE AS
4AM FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...AS SEVERE THREAT TIMING
AND IMPACT AREAS MAY CHANGE. HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS READY
FOR ACTIVATION WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.

RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
SATURATED SOILS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TOMBIGBEE BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Double Post
While we are all anticipating what will turn out over the Gulf coast, this is a rather large system affecting a large portion of the US; look at the area around Dallas at the moment and the very cool temps behind the front:
South Plains sector loop


First rains arriving here in Metairie, just south of the Causeway Bridge.



Looks like first TW up for W and SW of NOLA. Radar indicated?
499  
WFUS54 KLIX 231643  
TORLIX  
LAC089-231715-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0017.160223T1643Z-160223T1715Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1043 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1115 AM CST  
 
* AT 1043 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BAYOU GAUCHE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF  
HAHNVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
BOUTTE AND LULING AROUND 1100 AM CST.  
HAHNVILLE AND TAFT AROUND 1105 AM CST.  

Quoting 293. Sfloridacat5:

Check out the cell just entering the frame at the bottom of the image. It's huge and nasty looking.

Here's that cell shown off the Galveston radar.
Good afternoon and best wishes! Stay safe everyone.
To relax a bit: here a video of the nice aspects of El Nino, currently happening in Death Valley:


DEATH VALLEY SUPER BLOOM SPRING FLORA 2016
This was caused by massive amounts of water draining into the valley.
Once in a lifetime experience, I'm told.
The people of the valley are calling it a 'Superbloom'.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231644Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SERN MS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
INCREASING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL LATE THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A WW WOULD BE NEEDED IN THE SHORT-TERM /BY AROUND NOON CST/...THOUGH
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...VIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
WITHIN A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER THE N GULF WATERS...WELL
IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF N TX. SFC OBS IMPLY A
STEADY WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
AROUND 64-68F AMIDST POCKETS OF INSOLATION...SUPPORTING MLCAPE
AROUND 250-750 J/KG AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH. DEEPER CONVECTION OVER
THE N GULF MAY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BRINGING SOME SVR RISK ONSHORE. DEEP SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE LIX VWP PRESENTLY SUGGESTS
MODEST...THOUGH SUFFICIENT...LOW-LEVEL SRH /AROUND 125 M2 PER S2 IN
THE 0-1-KM LAYER/ FOR A TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER...THE MASS RESPONSE TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS NW OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A MORE
OPTIMAL WIND PROFILE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR TORNADOES -- WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 02/23/2016
Risk areas keep expanding with every update. Just 24 hours ago, there wasn't even a moderate risk area.

What scares me the most is that this is indicating that the severe threat is going to last all night, into the morning.
Vertical shear can be seen well on the viz....See why the Mets are so concerned.

Some technical issues here sadly.

Some warnings will be in linked rich text form due to a Macbook issue.

Tornado Watch # 19 issued for the Se LA. DETAILS TO FOLLOW
This is a little different from the advance warning for a hurricane but would urge all folks living along the gulf coast to park your cars/boats/rvs etc. away from potential falling trees/branches in the evening/overnight hours. Good day-afternoon-evening to park them in the garage if you have one.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

TVS noted nearing Laplace.

Quoting 316. Patrap:

Some technical issues here sadly.

Some warnings will be in linked rich text form due to a Macbook issue.


Seems to be happening more and more during times when it is most important....it does fpmo
Not very happy for Florida and South Alabama and Georgia at the moment with the sun shining, front on the way, and a very warm Gulf flow pushing up ahead of the front...............Gonna be some pretty good daytime heating that will raise instability this afternoon and evening.



Whoa....I know it's fantasy land but....WOW.

TORLIX  
LAC051-231730-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0019.160223T1713Z-160223T1730Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1113 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1130 AM CST  
 
* AT 1113 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. ROSE...OR NEAR METAIRIE...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
METAIRIE AROUND 1130 AM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE NEW  
ORLEANS ARMSTRONG AIRPORT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Quoting 321. Patrap:




I advise anyone in that tornado watch to be on Red Alert until it is safe.
MARINE WARNING FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

T-Storm with possible Waterspout in Western Lake P...moving N from Kenner.

heed the warnings and stay safe folks.........................................
Wind Advisory
Issued: 2:45 AM CST Feb. 23, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Wind Advisory remains in effect from 10 am this morning to
6 am CST Wednesday...

* timing... winds will begin strengthening during the morning
Tuesday and will be strongest Tuesday night.

* Winds... sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts as
high as 40 mph.

* Duration... 24 to 36 hours of strong winds.

* Impacts... strong winds will blow around unsecured objects like
trash cans and light weight outdoor furniture. Sudden gusts of
wind will make driving on some bridges and elevated roadways
difficult at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Additionally... be sure
to secure loose objects like trash cans and light weight outdoor
furniture as winds can blow these items around causing damage.

Patrap:
Today when someone hollers: "GET DOWN!"
They don't mean: "Boogie!"
Thanx for dat excellent advisement Ken, LoL







All right, since Winter is ending, here is my preliminary report on it:

NAMES USED:
Arak'Taral
Bashir
Cretak
Dukat
Ezri
Fontaine

NEXT NAME ON LIST:
Garak

STORM TOTALS IN CARBONDALE FROM EACH STORM:
Arak'taral: Dusting
Bashir: 3 inches
Cretak: None
Dukat: 1.5 inches
Ezri: 2 inches
Fontaine: Up to 1 inch

RATING OF WINTER ON SCALE OF 1-10, 1 being the least active winter, 10 being the most active winter, and 5 being average activity:
4

gee..................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
931 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

ALZ011>015-017>050-241845-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILT ON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MO NTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
931 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 4 AM. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 4PM
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND LASTING AS LATE AS
4AM FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALICEVILLE...TO CLANTON...TO LAFAYETTE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...AS SEVERE THREAT TIMING
AND IMPACT AREAS MAY CHANGE. HAVE YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLANS READY
FOR ACTIVATION WHEN WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. SOME GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.

RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
SATURATED SOILS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TOMBIGBEE BASIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$
Lake Charles view

I've been out of the weather loop for a while with so much going on..

Didnt know I was in an enhanced threat tomorrow..WECT TV 6 is doing a live Facebook conversation now and I saw it then..now I know how a person outside the weather enthusiant feels..

Non thunderstorm wind speeds along the northern gulf coast are expected to be well over 60 kts at 925 mbs ( 3000 ft ).
Rain and thunderstorms will likely bring a lot of it down to the surface.
Any advance indications for weather along Eastern NC for February 24. I saw an earlier post for a 'Triangle from Hatteras'... now I cannot find this post or who made it. My daughter attends NCU in Wilmington, NC and is scheduled for a field trip tomorrow along the coast.
Nothing yet in Baton Rouge. Wife was just sent home from work and I will likely be riding this one from my office.
172  
WFUS54 KLIX 231745  
TORLIX  
LAC005-033-047-231815-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0020.160223T1745Z-160223T1815Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1145 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1215 PM CST  
 
* AT 1145 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CARVILLE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF GONZALES...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
ST. GABRIEL...PRAIRIEVILLE...CARVILLE...GEISMER...OLD JEFFERSON...  
VILLAGE ST. GEORGE AND SHENANDOAH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3041 9104 3032 9083 3018 9106 3021 9113  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 221DEG 23KT 3022 9108  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

Looking N and S between these 2 bands, I can see the one in the Lake leaving, but this view to the South and Southwest,is Ominous like a TS gale arriving in darkness, speed and look.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

LAC051-231730-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160223T1730Z/
JEFFERSON LA-
1123 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH...

AT 1123 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR METAIRIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3001 9027 3005 9028 3005 9026 3004 9025
3004 9023 3002 9025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 206DEG 23KT 3003 9026

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
Iberville Parrish... Rodie Sanchez....

:)
NWS says the Tornado warning has expired, the storm that prompted the warning has since weakened...stay alert folks.
Quoting 350. Patrap:

Looking South in between these 2 bands, I can see the one in the Lake leaving, but this view to the South and Southwest,is Ominous like a TS gale arriving in darkness, speed and look.



Stay safe. NWS twitter has waterspout pic from causeway on their page.

nolanws twitter below
Link
Two warnings on the loops at the moment from the cells just to the North of New Orleans and two tornado reports up on SPC; right on cue...........................

last3hours Reports Graphic

 
459  
WFUS54 KLIX 231758  
TORLIX  
LAC103-231830-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0021.160223T1758Z-160223T1830Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST  
 
* AT 1157 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...OR 14 MILES  
SOUTH OF COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. WATERSPOUT FEATURE SPOTTED ON  
CAUSEWAY BRIDGE CAMERA.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LACOMBE.  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
IF ON OR NEAR NORTH LAKE PONCHARTRAIN...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND  
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE  
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN  
PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE  
INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER  
IN A THUNDERSTORM.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3044 8982 3029 8999 3032 9001 3032 9004  
3035 9006 3037 9010 3037 9014 3046 9008  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 206DEG 22KT 3026 9011  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

It appears the Mesoscale models are trending towards a warning-level snow event.

RGEM


WRF-NMM


WRF-ARW


NAM 4KM


CMC
While the shear is howling across the Gulf, the front is not moving that fast; might be a prolonged event starting in LA and moving pretty slowly East............This is not looking like a small squall line event but a big rain-t-storm event at the moment driven by the low and quasi-stationary front:

Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop



Quoting 357. 62901IL:

It appears the Mesoscale models are trending towards a warning-level snow event.

RGEM


WRF-NMM


WRF-ARW


NAM 4KM


CMC



It appears that I am trending at not going into work tomorrow...:D
Dr. Greg Forbes
1 hr

TOR:CON Details for tonight (after 9PM):
AL south - 8
AL central - 7
AL north - 3
FL west panhandle - 8
FL east panhandle - 6
GA southwest - 4
GA northwest - 3
LA southeast - 8
MS southeast - 8
MS east-central, northeast - 5
TN south -central - 2

Dr. Greg Forbes
1 hr

TOR:CON Details for Wednesday:
CT - 2 overnight
DE - 2 to 3
FL east panhandle and peninsula - 4
GA northeast, east-central, south - 3
MD central, east - 3
NC central, east - 6
NC west - 5
NJ - 2 to 3
NY south - 2 overnight
PA east - 2 to 3
SC east - 5
SC west - 4
TN northeast - 3
VA east - 6
VA west - 5
Damage now reported in St. Charles Parish, Kenner from a possible Tornado,

The image on the wwltv.com home page below is the culprit.

wwltv.com

From NWS

12:10

Tornado on the ground near I-10 at Exit 171, or the Praireville exit.

Seek shelter now
191  
WFUS54 KLIX 231811  
TORLIX  
LAC005-033-063-231845-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0022.160223T1811Z-160223T1845Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTH CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTH CENTRAL ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1245 PM CST  
 
* AT 1211 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PRAIRIEVILLE...OR 8 MILES EAST OF OAK  
HILLS PLACE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
FRENCH SETTLEMENT AND PORT VINCENT AROUND 1220 PM CST.  
DENHAM SPRINGS AROUND 1230 PM CST.  WALKER AROUND 1235 PM CST.  
LIVINGSTON AROUND 1245 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3063 9084 3047 9060 3022 9092 3031 9102  
3032 9102 3032 9103 3033 9105  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 221DEG 23KT 3035 9094  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
3 waterspouts Near Mandeville LIVE on wwltv.com TV

hey guys what up
haven't been on for a little while
Quoting 367. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys what up
haven't been on for a little while


Well, we have a Moderate Risk of severe weather on the Gulf Coast, and I could get some snow.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1158 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1145 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1113 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1043 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
The next line for the S. Shore is inbound below us from Near Lockport over to Golden Meadow.


Note the storm tackers aligning.


Quoting 366. Patrap:

3 waterspouts Near Mandeville LIVE on wwltv.com TV

LARGE ,and heading onshore...ALERT!!

SEELK COVER NOW IN MANDEVILLE

I saw that as well. It was remarkable.

Round 2 inbound now.
Quoting 345. JustPlantIt:

Any advance indications for weather along Eastern NC for February 24. I saw an earlier post for a 'Triangle from Hatteras'... now I cannot find this post or who made it. My daughter attends NCU in Wilmington, NC and is scheduled for a field trip tomorrow along the coast.
hope this prints out..nws moorehead NC.....................................Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Threat Details:
• A potent upper disturbance passing to our west will bring unstable conditions across
much of Eastern NC Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. It is likely that
a line of very strong showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across
eastern NC ahead of a cold front. There is the potential for tornado
development, although isolated, as this line moves east.
• Impact:
• This situation has the potential to be a stronger than normal severe weather
outbreak, especially given the time of year. Severe Thunderstorm wind gusts
could be on the upper end of what is typically experienced in this area. In addition,
the potential exists for stronger tornadoes than what is typically experience in this
area. EF1-3 type damage is possible. There will also be strong gradient winds ahead
of and behind any storms that will lead to damaging straight-line winds. The very wet
ground and additional rain ahead of this system will enhance the potential for downed
trees.
• Timing:
• The main threat will occur from mid to late afternoon into the early evening hours
on Wednesday as the line of showers and thunderstorms moves from west to east.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in from the south ahead of the main
line can also be expected Wednesday morning/early afternoon.
• Confidence:
• A number of factors will need to come into alignment for this outbreak to take on its
most severe potential. Models are indicating many of the ingredients are present for
severe weather to occur. Some limiting factors could be the timing of forcing and how
much instability is realized ahead of the storms. Clearing during the day that allows
temperatures to build will be a key component to how strong the storms become.
Confidence is building for at least some severe and potentially very damaging
storms.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1226 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1225 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ABITA SPRINGS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
ABITA SPRINGS AROUND 1245 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR IN  
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3053 8977 3052 8977 3050 8975 3050 8976  
3049 8973 3030 8996 3036 9008 3064 8998  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 212DEG 15KT 3039 8999  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

TORNADO WARNING
LAC103-231830-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0021.160223T1758Z-160223T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

* AT 1157 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF MADISONVILLE...OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF COVINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. WATERSPOUT FEATURE SPOTTED ON
CAUSEWAY BRIDGE CAMERA.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LACOMBE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF ON OR NEAR NORTH LAKE PONCHARTRAIN...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE
INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER
IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3044 8982 3029 8999 3032 9001 3032 9004
3035 9006 3037 9010 3037 9014 3046 9008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 206DEG 22KT 3026 9011

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$
This gives me 10" but huge amounts are lurking 80 miles N/W of me in Michigan. Winter's final fourth quarter drive I hope.



LOS on the DirecTV from Echo Tops high to my South.

As expected
N1 is the Nado warned cell on the N Shore

building into a very dangerous storm gee......................................


Im into my local Action protocol and will be AFK for a spell

BigDukeNOLA7,

out'
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
500 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM ENVIRONMENT GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF BATON
ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Tornado located near exit 171 on I-10 is moving NE to NNE. May miss Walker but not by much. Started getting rain in my location about 30 min. ago but nothing more than a normal shower. Wind is near nothing at the moment. Keeping a close eye on the large cell moving NE in our direction.
TORNADO WARNING
LAC063-091-105-231915-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0024.160223T1840Z-160223T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1240 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 115 PM CST

* AT 1239 PM CST...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
LIVINGSTON...OR 10 MILES EAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MONTPELIER AROUND 110 PM CST.
AMITE CITY AND INDEPENDENCE AROUND 115 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&
ANTARCTICA - NEW RECORD WARMEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time warmest temperature anywhere on mainland Antarctica or on the Antarctic Peninsula islands of 17.8 C / 64.0 F was reportedly on James Ross Island on March 14, 2015.

Link
Damage done to Gold's Gym in Prarieville, LA east of Baton Rouge.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb66W06UUAACXTQ.jpg

Triple water spout located on Lake Ponchatrain:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb6462CUAAA3NAv.jpg

Not sure if this will work:

412  
WUUS54 KLCH 231854  
SVRLCH  
LAC001-055-097-099-113-231945-  
/O.NEW.KLCH.SV.W.0039.160223T1854Z-160223T1945Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA  
1254 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
EASTERN ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 145 PM CST  
 
* AT 1254 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SCOTT...  
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LAFAYETTE...CATAHOULA...SCOTT...BREAUX BRIDGE...CARENCRO...ST.  
MARTINVILLE...BROUSSARD...HENDERSON...MAURICE...CE CILIA...LAKE  
PELBA...ATCHAFALAYA NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...BUTTE LA ROSE...  
PARKS AND MILTON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN  
LOUISIANA.  
 
LAT...LON 3014 9149 3009 9216 3028 9220 3044 9165  
3040 9162 3038 9163 3036 9165 3035 9163
185  
WFUS54 KLIX 231859  
TORLIX  
LAC103-MSC109-231930-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0025.160223T1859Z-160223T1930Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1259 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 130 PM CST  
 
* AT 1259 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSH...OR 11 MILES WEST OF PICAYUNE...  
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SUN AROUND 115 PM CST.  
CROSSROADS AND MCNEIL AROUND 130 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3066 8955 3049 8987 3054 8996 3067 8987  
3067 8984 3068 8984 3069 8985 3069 8984  
3070 8984 3081 8977  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 217DEG 20KT 3056 8987  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
Post 374 by LargoFL.....
Thank you.
Studies Marine Biology, now Environmental Sciences.... all one in the same. The field trip tomorrow is on the coast. Thanks, I hope that it will be cancelled.
033  
WFUS54 KLIX 231903  
TORLIX  
LAC005-063-093-095-231930-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0026.160223T1903Z-160223T1930Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
103 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA...  
CENTRAL ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 130 PM CST  
 
* AT 102 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SORRENTO...OR NEAR DONALDSONVILLE...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
SORRENTO AROUND 120 PM CST.  
GRAMERCY AND LUTCHER AROUND 130 PM CST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3004 9094 3011 9099 3034 9077 3009 9057  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 242DEG 17KT 3010 9089  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
MJH  
 
Quoting 392. JustPlantIt:

Post 374 by LargoFL.....
Thank you.
Studies Marine Biology, now Environmental Sciences.... all one in the same. The field trip tomorrow is on the coast. Thanks, I hope that it will be cancelled.
yes looks like dangerous weather up there..good luck
well 4 tornado reports in LA so far..stay alert folks
N1 still the Nado warned cell

be aware in Amite as the F1 warned cell is closing



reports so far today........Tornado (7)


Wind (2)


Hail (0)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
111 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 145 PM CST  
 
* AT 109 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTPELIER...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF  
AMITE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
AMITE AND AMITE CITY AROUND 125 PM CST.  
ROSELAND AROUND 130 PM CST.  
WILMER AROUND 145 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
TANGIPAHOA.  
 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A  
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3078 9030 3060 9057 3065 9057 3065 9064  
3066 9066 3094 9055  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 216DEG 24KT 3066 9060  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
114 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
ASSUMPTION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN ST. JAMES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 200 PM CST  
 
* AT 114 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PIERRE  
PART...OR NEAR BELLE RIVER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
DONALDSONVILLE...NAPOLEONVILLE...BELLE RIVER...ST. GABRIEL...WHITE  
CASTLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...PIERRE PART AND BELLE ROSE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN  
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT  
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A  
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR  
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD  
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY  
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR  
OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT  
PROPERTY DAMAGE.  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA.  
 
LAT...LON 3025 9107 2991 9085 2990 9088 2990 9089  
2986 9120 2990 9121 2992 9123 2993 9123  
2994 9124 2999 9126 3000 9126 3001 9123  
3004 9122 3004 9123 3003 9125 3006 9128  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 242DEG 16KT 2997 9122  
 
HAIL...<.75IN  
NWS NOLA tweets Strongest rotation nearing Amite, La. at I-55





Review,
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 114 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 111 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 103 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1259 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1254 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1240 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1226 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1211 PM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1158 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1145 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1113 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1111 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1043 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016
Quoting 206. StormTrackerScott:

SOI tanking and a robust WWB occurring may lead to El-Nino this Fall.

WWB


CFSv2


Equally or perhaps more important to the prolonging of El Nino is the diminishing trades east of 130W. Those trades have really been cooling regions 1.2 and 3.
The sun is out in east central Alabama. It's beautiful, but .....
Quoting 407. Alagirl:

The sun is out in east central Alabama. It's beautiful, but .....
The Sun will destabilize things..Stay safe down ther.....:)
Gold's Gym, damage, Prairieville,La.

Kean's Cleaner's in Prarieville, LA
West of me 6 miles,



Dark clouds roll across the sky on Feb. 23, 2016, in Kenner, La.
(Photo: Nesaih Terrebonne)
Inside Golds Gym, Prairieville,Louisiana



Aerial footage of devastation at Makogai Is., Fiji

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmT2JVNOGPw&list= PLNxwX7r4A557FYqcq9AjL33HmvPOzt2uK&index=1
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 413. Vebz25:

Aerial footage of devastation at Makogai Is., Fiji







Barely made 80 today. I am at the Courthouse doing Jury Duty(as you can see).....
Film of triple waterspout on Lake Ponchatrain
Link
I believe this has been said among a few bloggers today as well:

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT RISK IS DEVELOPING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE OUR FIRST BIG EVENT OF THE 2016
SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SEASON. IF THIS SPRING UNFOLDS ANYTHING LIKE
1998 (THE LAST MAJOR EL NINO) THIS WON`T BE THE LAST BIG EVENT
EITHER...