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Inauguration weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:11 PM GMT on January 19, 2009

Barack Obama won't have the weather as the first concern of his presidency, unlike some of his predecessors. The weather for Tuesday's swearing in ceremony promises to be precipitation-free, with a mix of sun and clouds. With temperatures in the low 30s and a moderate north wind of 10-15 mph, he'll have to bundle up, though. As the afternoon progresses, clouds will dominate for the parade, but the weather at the inauguration promises to be a non-story, unlike some previous occasions:

Most Dramatic and Tragic - 1841:
President William Henry Harrison was sworn into office on a cloudy, windy day, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. His speech lasted one hour and 40 minutes, and he rode a horse to and from the Capitol, without wearing a hat or overcoat. Pneumonia developed from a lingering cold he caught on that day and he died just one month later.

Almost as bad - 1853:
President Franklin Pierce was sworn into office during a snowstorm, with temperatures near freezing. Shortly after Pierce took his oath of office, as he began his inaugural address, heavier snow began falling, dispersing much of the crowd and ruining plans for the parade. Abigail Fillmore, First Lady to the outgoing President Millard Fillmore, caught a cold as she sat on the cold, wet, exposed platform during the swearing-in ceremony. The cold developed into pneumonia and she died at the end of the month.

Worst Weather Day - 1909:
President William H. Taft's ceremony was forced indoors due to a storm that dropped 10 inches of snow over the Capital city. The snow and winds began the day before, toppling trees and telephone poles. Trains were stalled, and city streets clogged, bringing all activity to a standstill. Sanitation workers shoveled sand and snow through the night. It took 6,000 men and 500 wagons to clear 58,000 tons of snow and slush from the parade route. Despite the freezing temperatures, howling wind, snow, and sleet, a large crowd gathered in front of the Capitol to view the inauguration, but the weather forced the ceremony indoors. Just after the swearing-in, the snow tapered off.


Figure 1. Inauguration day, 1909. Workers shovel away heavy snow from in front of President Taft's reviewing stand (left). President Taft and wife returning to the White House after the ceremony (right).

The material for this post was taken from an excellent Presidential Inaugural Weather web page put together by the National Weather Service forecast office in Washington D.C. The page has loads more information, for those interested.

Good luck, Mr. Obama!

I'll have a new post on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters. Wow, the 1909 storm looks awful.
Very interesting Dr. Masters.
Thank you for the historical info.
Still a bit cold for standing about listening to speeches. Brrr
Wow, I didnt realize that was the cuase of Pierces pneumonia. Makes sense though. Glad modern medicine has come a long way since then.
Herbert Hoover's inauguration parade down Penn Ave

Gettin interesting here.....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT. SNOW...OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AND
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
FLURRIES TUESDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WATCH
AREA IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH A FEW HIGHER
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Reagan's 1985 Innaugaration was the lowest ever Innaugaral temp...all the events were moved indoors... the swearing in was inside the Capitol...the 'parade' was held at, I think, the MCI center...I forget how cold...but..I was there... it was cold...
Quoting presslord:
Reagan's 1985 Innaugaration was the lowest ever Innaugaral temp...all the events were moved indoors... the swearing in was inside the Capitol...the 'parade' was held at, I think, the MCI center...I forget how cold...but..I was there... it was cold...


Did you have your dress on?
Snow just north of Tampa? from nws

ONE LAST VORT MAX WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS N FL AROUND 00Z. THAT ALONG WITH LLVL CONVECTIVE LIFT
COULD POTENTIALLY COOL THE MOIST LAYER ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...
WHICH WOULD HELP INITIATE THE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION NEEDED TO MIX
THE SUPERCOOLED RAIN DROPS WITH SNOW. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR
FROM PASCO CO SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BUT ITS WELL WORTH MENTIONING THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OR PELLETS MIXED WITH THE SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
TUESDAY EVENING.
Quoting IKE:


Did you have your dress on?


CAREFUL! He may have put on a bikini or even a thong!

(as per KTG and Orca)
11. IKE
East and central Tennessee getting snowed on....

Quoting Buhdog:
Snow just north of Tampa? from nws

ONE LAST VORT MAX WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS N FL AROUND 00Z. THAT ALONG WITH LLVL CONVECTIVE LIFT
COULD POTENTIALLY COOL THE MOIST LAYER ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...
WHICH WOULD HELP INITIATE THE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION NEEDED TO MIX
THE SUPERCOOLED RAIN DROPS WITH SNOW. HAVING SAID ALL THIS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SPRINKLES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I75 CORRIDOR
FROM PASCO CO SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BUT ITS WELL WORTH MENTIONING THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OR PELLETS MIXED WITH THE SPRINKLES FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD
TUESDAY EVENING.

ummmm what day
Quoting btwntx08:

ummmm what day

ok never i saww it...it said midnight tonight to tue evening
Quoting atmoaggie:


CAREFUL! He may have put on a bikini or even a thong!

(as per KTG and Orca)

can we donate NOT to see that one ;)
Thanks for the interesting information Dr. Masters. I just can't imagine 2,000,000 people standing out in the cold for several hours. Although with that many people packed together body heat will probably help
Good brunch... :P
I hope all the misguided believers in global warming who are at the innaguration freeze their rear ends off
A friend of mine has a ticket for the inauguration. She is counting on the body heat of all those people but has real worries about the temps while getting home. There will be every thing from long stands on Metro platforms, over stuffed Metro cars, long walks to get to the parked car. No quick trip to a nearby hotel for most of those folks, and no parking for miles.
Press~ Reagan's other inauguration was the warmest compared to other inauguations on that day.
Aren't Eric and Fanele close enough for a Fujiwara effect?
Quoting largeeyes:
Gettin interesting here.....


And here (Durham, NC) as well. We haven't had a decent snowfall in the five years since my daughter was born; now they're saying we might get 2-4 inches tomorrow. The really interesting part, though, is this:

..it is important to note...That models could be tracking the
bombing surface low too quickly offshore...as deepening system could
slow down and track west of current forecast (closer to the coast)
as it moves into the highly baroclinic zone of the Gulf Stream. This
would result in much heavier snowfall amounts across the area...with
heavy snowfall islands reminiscent of the record January 25 2000
snowstorm(for further details go to
http://www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/rah/events).


The January 2000 storm brought us around 20 inches.
Aloysius-you have to worry about the silly few who will wear inadequate clothing and footwear (high heels)who may suffer from ignorance or appearance issues, then suffer frostbite or hypothermia.
They’re saying to prepare to walk anywhere from 2 to 10 miles. I can't immagine anyone wearing heels
It's snowing It's snowing yay
Weather can't decide if it wants to sleet or snow...

Another vicious low on its way by the end of the week, probably same conditions as last week. Pressure estimated at low 950s/high 940s, but see how it goes... maybe lower than that if it tightens up.

This one has been hinted at by the GFS for nearly a fortnight... good job.

Morning All.

Wind Chills in the upper 20's Wednesday Morning for West Palm, eeeks.

Old Timers around here say January cold temps like these raise flags for hurricane season. January 2004 low was 32 degrees and we all know what happend that year. Not sure of the validity of it but, they must know a thing or two.
GM,all,we here in Mass. picked up another foot of snow,and Maine got close to 2 feet,so the fall predictions of a stormy winter are certainly coming true
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIX
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FANELE (07-20082009)
16:00 PM Réunion January 19 2009
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fanele (985 hPa) located at 21.8S 41.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.5S 41.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.9S 42.5E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.8S 45.2E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
72 HRS: 24.9S 49.5E - (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
The cloud pattern has improved over the last 6 hours, and can support T4.0 but final T number is restricted to 3.5+ (due to dvorak rules constraints). The system shows a very small inner core, but a hint of an eye is exhibited on microwave imagery (AMSU 0641z). Fanele is beneath very favorable environmental conditions under the upper level ridge with a good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one, related to the rebuilding high pressure in the southwest.

Fanele is expected to strenghthen regularly. However a dry air intrusion in the 36 hours could limit this intensification.

Most of the available NWP models show an eastern turn towards the western coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both track and speed. Current forecast is based on a general consensus.

INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHT
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ERIC (06-20082009)
16:00 PM Réunion January 19 2009
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (997 hPa) located at 19.1S 49.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.8S 49.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 23.7S/ 9.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 29.6S 50.9E - 30 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 34.3S 62.4E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
Moderate Tropical Storm Eric has crossed Tamatave where measured pressure was at 993 hPa. Center is fully exposed south of the residual convection and is back at sea. System with a very small size, wind/pressure relationship no respected. Wind structure is asymmetric (Greater winds extension in the eastern semi-circle). The system has tracked south along the western edge of the subtropical ridge cemtered in the east. Beyond 36 hours, it should turn southeastwards and evacuate with the transiting trough. Eric can benefit from an intensification window up to 24 hours as the wind shear should temporarily decrease and an upper trough should improve the poleward outflow. NWP models are in good agreement and the forecast track is a consensus.
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Quoting jeffB:


And here (Durham, NC) as well. We haven't had a decent snowfall in the five years since my daughter was born; now they're saying we might get 2-4 inches tomorrow. The really interesting part, though, is this:

..it is important to note...That models could be tracking the
bombing surface low too quickly offshore...as deepening system could
slow down and track west of current forecast (closer to the coast)
as it moves into the highly baroclinic zone of the Gulf Stream. This
would result in much heavier snowfall amounts across the area...with
heavy snowfall islands reminiscent of the record January 25 2000
snowstorm(for further details go to
http://www.Erh.NOAA.Gov/rah/events).


The January 2000 storm brought us around 20 inches.


Woah.....Haven't had 20" in a few years since I lived near Dayton, OH. Callin for 3-6" here, but looks like they are hedging their bets.

LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE LAKES LATER TODAY.
WITH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE THE SET-UP HAS BEEN BUILDING FOR A CLASSIC
HATTERAS-LOW TYPE WINTER STORM. NOW THE MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE IN
LINE AND CONFIDENCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS GROWING. OPC/HPC PREFER
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE UKMET/00Z ECMWF TO THE GFS OR THE
STRONGER NAM SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD PUT THE LOW NEAREST HATTERAS LATE
AFT/EARLY TUE EVENING. GIVEN THIS FAVORED BAROCLINIC SPOT NEARER THE
GULF STREAM WOULD ANTICIPATE DEEP CYCLOGENESIS DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. CAN`T
RULE OUT SEEING WINDS NEARING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG OBX...BUT THIS
SEEMS ON THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY ISN`T
FAVORED SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY ADVISORY WINDS (BELOW BLIZZARD
CRITERIA). THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL KEEP
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXP THEM TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARDS EARLY
WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS...BUT FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AS WINDS SWITCH BACK
OFFSHORE AROUND THE PEAK AND HOLD CONDITIONS TO LIKELY HIGH SURF
(ADVISORIES LIKELY IN LATER FCST PACKAGE). THE GALE WINDS WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOUND SIDE FLOODING...BUT
AGAIN COULD SEE AN ADVISORY OR STATEMENT ABOUT LOW WATERS ON THE W
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THE OBX IN NW FLOW TUE NT. THE REST OF
THE FCST IS UNUSUALLY BENIGN FOR LATE JANUARY WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS
UNTIL SUN WHEN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SINKS S. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ZONAL...AND THEN SLIGHT RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
I think appears to me that the DC area for tomorrow Snow is more likely to have Snow falling during Inauguration as the Low could make life very miserable during that time.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...
Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...
Interesting as I've never had any problems with it. Good information out there too!
Quoting conchygirl:
Interesting as I've never had any problems with it. Good information out there too!


After the initial entry it's a little easier to load.
Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...


Your the first to ever complain. I know there is alot of graphics but, it could be alot more if i had loaded everything to do loops instead of clicking to loop.....LOL
Very interesting info Dr. Masters. Thanks for sharing.

Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...

I have high speed internet too and have trouble loading some blogs.
Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...



I have the same problems loading that page...

I load it in a separate window when I do so and even then it freezes the cpu. for a few minutes.
Quoting Drakoen:


Not being rude, but even my high speed internet has a hard time loading that page. A lot of graphics there...


That would be the Florida Gator pics...(j/k)
Quoting sullivanweather:



I have the same problems loading that page...

I load it in a separate window when I do so and even then it freezes the cpu. for a few minutes.


It freezes mine just a little periodically....
Quoting TampaSpin:


Your the first to ever complain. I know there is alot of graphics but, it could be alot more if i had loaded everything to do loops instead of clicking to loop.....LOL
Seriously...no problem for me with cable internet and wireless.
I could use a RAM upgrade I think. Graphics are pretty advanced these days. I browse with Firefox though which is much faster than IE.
Good Day all.
Looking at the Images and loops, at the area around 50W 5N.
The GFS are hinting at something developing in the area of the South Carib. Islands in a week or so.
The area of convection in the ITCZ on the coast of NE Brazil is producing rains there now, and getting more pronounced. Upper level winds are southerly, and may lift this area north?
Comments ?
I could eliminate some graphics if you all think it needed......i don't have any issues on my Computer but, i don't have yours so let me know what i can do to help.
Tampa,

If certain images have thumbnailed versions post those and make the images clickable to the larger images.

That's really the only suggestion I could think of.
Quoting pottery:
Good Day all.
Looking at the Images and loops, at the area around 50W 5N.
The GFS are hinting at something developing in the area of the South Carib. Islands in a week or so.
The area of convection in the ITCZ on the coast of NE Brazil is producing rains there now, and getting more pronounced. Upper level winds are southerly, and may lift this area north?
Comments ?


Steering layers maps would suggest that area to move into South America currently but, things could change as we know....Secondly the Vorticity maps does not show anything..

Thanks Tampa.
I was'nt too concerned re: Vorticity. Looking to see if heavy rain was in the forecast for me. Looks to be a possibility. And that would be Un-Seasonal.
Local 5 day Forecast is 30% chance of rain, all days except Wednesday, which rises to 40%.
I personally think that is on the low side.
The National Weather Service just changed the Forecast for DC for tomorrow to a 30% chance of Snow starting at 10am
Good morning,

RE: 25. Cotillion Northeast Atlantic Surface Pressure & Wind (Sorry about your Ravens, was cheering for them)

RE: Jetstream vs arctic blast heading south?

RE:TampaSpin Blog - Loads slow, but always worth the wait. I think it is due to my computer (low resources) more than internet speed. I appreciate the "in simple terms"!!!

RE: Low off southeast coast - Folly Beach Buoy WINDS SW
If we get snow here in the Lowcountry I'm gonna really be mad about it....
Quoting presslord:
If we get snow here in the Lowcountry I'm gonna really be mad about it....

I would rather not see snow on the ground. Is the ground cold enough for snow to stick? Not so worried here on the peninsula, where I am surrounded by water (relatively warm). StormJunkie may get his wish in Goose Creek though! As long as they do not share with us along the coast.
"As long as they do not share with us along the coast"


Amen, sister!!!!! but my 17 year old will be glad if he can't get to Bishop England....
Dr.Masters thank you for the weather history page, great info for my tutoring session. I can see the Weather Channel making an episode of When Weather Changed History out of those.
58. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Dr.Masters thank you for the weather history page, great info for my tutoring session. I can see the Weather Channel making an episode of When Weather Changed History out of those.


132 days....
11 hours....
11 minutes..

and it starts.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

I would rather not see snow on the ground. Is the ground cold enough for snow to stick? Not so worried here on the peninsula, where I am surrounded by water (relatively warm). StormJunkie may get his wish in Goose Creek though! As long as they do not share with us along the coast.


Lesson learned from the heavy snow we had in SE LA: If it snows hard enough with fat enough flakes neither the air nor the ground has to be below/near freezing for it to stick.

We built up 5 inches here, (8 inches not far away) with the air at ~35 F and the ground probably more than 50 F. We even had an inch on roads and at least a few on bridges. And, it stuck around for ~48 hours (on grass, houses, cars) with temps above freezing the entire time.
RE:56. presslord - It would be a good day to be home - get to watch the inaugaration. Wish I could call in - maybe with enough snow....hmmmm.


Found this interesting from National Data Buoy Center
Notice: NDBC plans to conduct testing of its DART (tsunameter) network the week of January 12-16, 2009. Click here for details.
Please Note

NDBC PLANS TO CONDUCT TESTING OF ITS TSUNAMETER (DART) NETWORK DURING THE WEEK OF JANUARY 12, 2009. THE TEST WILL CONSIST OF PUTTING EACH STATION IN TSUNAMI MODE. EACH DAY FOUR TO SIX TSUNAMETER STATIONS WILL BE TRIGGERED. THE TESTING WILL BEGIN AT 1500 GMT EACH DAY. THE SCHEDULE IS AS FOLLOWS:

* 12 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 32412, 44401, 46413, 46410, 46412, 52409
* 13 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 21418, 43412, 44402, 46404, 46409, 51426, 52401
* 14 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 21413, 41424, 43413, 46403, 46407, 51425
* 15 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 32411, 41421, 46402, 42409, 46419, 51407, 52406
* 16 JAN 2009 - STATIONS 42407, 46408, 46411, 51406

NDBC DISTRIBUTES THE DATA FOR THE TSUNAMETER NETWORK VIA THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM /GTS/ BULLETIN HEADERS SZNT01 KWNB, SZPN01 KWNB, SZPS01 KWNB AND SZIO01 KWNB IN THE NATIVE FORMAT FOR THE DEEP-OCEAN ASSESSMENT AND REPORTING OF TSUNAMIS /DART/ TECHNOLOGY. NDBC WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY EVENTS THAT MAY TRIGGER A TSUNAMI AND WILL SUSPEND TESTING IMMEDIATELY IF AN EVENT OCCURS.
Inauguration weather:

4 Year Snow Job.
Quoting MisterPerfect:
Inauguration weather:

4 Year Snow Job.


How freaking funny.......LMAO
Crazy weather forcast for Tampa......this is the high and low forecast for Wednesday...

54° F | 27° F
Quoting atmoaggie:


Lesson learned from the heavy snow we had in SE LA: If it snows hard enough with fat enough flakes neither the air nor the ground has to be below/near freezing for it to stick.

We built up 5 inches here, (8 inches not far away) with the air at ~35 F and the ground probably more than 50 F. We even had an inch on roads and at least a few on bridges. And, it stuck around for ~48 hours (on grass, houses, cars) with temps above freezing the entire time.

Yikes! Watch out folks in North Carolina.
Does anyone understand the numbering system for buoys?

KEH...I hereby declare that even the thought of snow will make the bridges far too dangerous for you to cross....There! You're off tomorrow....
Quoting IKE:


132 days....
11 hours....
11 minutes..

and it starts.


Was waiting for that!

'...Sponsored by Rolex...'

The NAN now has the Low tracking closer up the East Coast.....could be a big snow Maker if it keeps tracking closer....

Quoting presslord:
KEH...I hereby declare that even the thought of snow will make the bridges far too dangerous for you to cross....There! You're off tomorrow....
Good enough for me - No one should be out shopping anyway.

Right whales are active off SC. Speed restrictions of 10 knots apply to vessels 65 feet or greater within the vicinity of this station. It is illegal to approach right whales within 500 yards. To learn more about right whales and rules protecting them, go to: http://rightwhalessouth.nmfs.noaa.gov
70. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Was waiting for that!

'...Sponsored by Rolex...'



Sorry about your Ravens. I figured w/a rookie QB and the game in Pittsburgh, it was all but certain the Steelers would win.

Glitter Critter Update:

Talked to the resident expert on Koi on the WestCoast. He has told me to do, what I hoped I would not have to do.. Sushi.. No just kidding.. he said I have to add heaters to the pond.... and bring up to summer time temperature to allow her metabolism to come up to speed.

So I have sent Barbi (SWMBO'ed) off with a heater to drop into the tank.. should see a difference within a few hours. Did anyone notice I did not mention to her that we should move to Florida with the fish. Two reasons for that... one is your temperatures are no warmer then ours right now.. what are you guys doing down there... anyone want to borrow a broken snow shovel?
With a low expected to form off HAT tonight, I would not bet the farm on no precip in DC tomorrow. Having forecast these things many times, I know what a difference 30 miles or so can make. In 1979, we picked up 21" in KNHK off of a`similar situation. We are looking at a possible 3-5" tomorrow here in KORF.
Quoting IKE:


Sorry about your Ravens. I figured w/a rookie QB and the game in Pittsburgh, it was all but certain the Steelers would win.



No worries; thanks to you and KEH.

~I'm really surprised we got this far. 18 weeks w/o a bye, 2nd largest IR list, rookie QB/HC... a miracle, really.

Next year, providing we manage the cap well and have a good draft, things'll be fine.

And since the Steelers will get cut up by the Cardinals' passing game, they'll get the loser's curse... should be a straight run (with an easier schedule this year and hopefully a better team) at the AFC North title, and a playoff bye. ;)
Quoting IKE:


132 days....
11 hours....
11 minutes..

and it starts.


The irony is, during hurricane season, we count down to the end of the season because a lot of people lost a lot and we want it over, but in the offseason, we count to the beginning because we have nothing to do.
The GFS has Snow flying in Tampa now.....LOL

Cotillion regarding Cardinals, from your lips to God's ears.

Tampa or anyone else,
If I watch the buoys off SC and NC (wind direction presently SW, pressure dropping). I should see a change in wind direction. If it tracks close to shore will the wind be more northerly, and farther away with an additional easterly component???
I know this is as basic as it gets, but for some reason, I have such a hard time visualizing these things. I try sketching it out on paper. I have a mental roadblock for this for some reason - so frustrating. It's like I am dyslexic when it comes to wind directions.
(For one thing, it always seems backwards to me. A northerly wind comes from the north - to me it is heading south, so should be called a southerly wind)
Thanks
#74

Another thing to bear in mind is, the last 2 seasons have started before June.

Since 1995, and the beginning of the positive AMO phase, the following start dates have occurred:

1995: June 2nd (Hurricane Allison, landfall in Florida.)
1996: June 17th (TS Arthur, landfall in N Carolina.)
1997: May 31st (Subtropical Storm One, no landfall.)
1998: July 27th (Tropical Storm Alex, no landfall.)
1999: June 11th (Tropical Storm Arlene, no landfall.)
2000: June 7th (TD 1, no landfall. First named storm was Alberto in August. No landfall there either.)
2001: June 4th (TS Allison, landfall in Texas.)
2002: July 14th (TS Arthur, v. close to N Carolina.)
2003: April 20th (TS Ana, no landfall.)
2004: July 31st (Hurricane Alex, direct hit/close to N Carolina)
2005: June 8th (TS Arlene, landfall in Florida.)
2006: June 10th (TS Alberto, landfall in Florida.)
2007: May 9th (SS Andrea, v.close to Florida/Georgia.)
2008: May 30th (TS Arthur, Belize.)

Last 2 have had an early start, with 3 of the last 6 seasons doing so.

Furthermore, those with a very late start: 1998, 2002 and 2004 - Two of those were El Nino. (Yes, they usually start earlier, and finish later I seem to recall..) 1998 I can't remember but I think it was a La Nina.

As well as this, look at those that made landfall. Roughly half made landfall, or within a close enough distance to the coast to put citizens under some sort of warning.

Last one to be safely out of harm's way was back in 2003.

The first tropical wave last year was what.. April?

I guess overall - officially, it starts on June 1st. Though, unofficially (with gradually more frequent 'anomalies'), it starts a little earlier. Especially with those landfalling even in early June, preparation ought to be completed a little earlier.

'course that said - we are in January, still at least 3 months to go before any real blob watching... 4 months until you dust off the model runs and SSD animations.:)
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cotillion regarding Cardinals, from your lips to God's ears.

Tampa or anyone else,
If I watch the buoys off SC and NC (wind direction presently SW, pressure dropping). I should see a change in wind direction. If it tracks close to shore will the wind be more northerly, and farther away with an additional easterly component???
I know this is as basic as it gets, but for some reason, I have such a hard time visualizing these things. I try sketching it out on paper. I have a mental roadblock for this for some reason - so frustrating. It's like I am dyslexic when it comes to wind directions.
(For one thing, it always seems backwards to me. A northerly wind comes from the north - to me it is heading south, so should be called a southerly wind)
Thanks


Try this site it is awsome for immediate updates and you can see many bouys at once with wind directions.....


Link
This could be my first NC snowstorm. The locals are about to have a coronary.
Quoting largeeyes:
This could be my first NC snowstorm. The locals are about to have a coronary.


Pressure is falling so the low is getting stronger....it could be much larger than forecasted.......
Quoting TampaSpin:


Try this site it is awsome for immediate updates and you can see many bouys at once with wind directions.....


Link

Just what I needed. That is so cool. Thanks.
OMG! We are now in a Snow Warning!! I might get to make snowman tommorrow.
Raleigh just went to Winter Storm Warning in the last hour. Waiting for Morehead City NWS to make the call for eastern NC.
Hey guys, what about the wind with the storm?
This is a Water Vapor of the Low......


Afternoon all

Looks like an interesting Tuesday coming up for the SE. Even got our selves a winter wx advisory here :~)

Still keeping my fingers crossed that we actually see some snow; these things often flake out down here and provide nothing more then cold nasty rain...
Quoting johnnycab:
With a low expected to form off HAT tonight, I would not bet the farm on no precip in DC tomorrow. Having forecast these things many times, I know what a difference 30 miles or so can make. In 1979, we picked up 21" in KNHK off of a`similar situation. We are looking at a possible 3-5" tomorrow here in KORF.


I forecasted Snow in DC during the INagur. time...Dr. M. did not think so but, i see the flakes flying and now the NWS has a 30% chance posted also.....
Tampa...if we get snow, I'm holding you personally responsible...and I'm not gonna be happy.....
I wouldn't be too optimistic about snow in Tampa.
Drak....if I wanted any crap outta you I'd have squeezed your head....
Lake effect snow in South Carolina......YOU gotta love it.....LMAO

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OR ACROSS LAKE MARION AND LAKE MOULTRIE. AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS...A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
Yep Tim, and I'm ticked...I am about 10 miles W of where that flow could set up if it is NW over the lakes. NNW would get me in it though.
SJ....zip it about the snow....
You're just mad cause you won't get any to stick that close to the coast press ¿~)
...snow is of the Devil....
I wish we would have a few flurries here in Orlando. If it's going to be cold it might as well.
Quoting presslord:
SJ....zip it about the snow....


You want the snow from here, Press?

I'll even gift wrap it for you. :)
Quoting presslord:
Drak....if I wanted any crap outta you I'd have squeezed your head....


You get more awkward everytime I come in here...
Quoting presslord:
...snow is of the Devil....

I can't help it Drak....I HATE the very thought of snow...it makes me even more ornery than usual...
excellent drak....I'm prayin' for a little global warming right now....
Quoting TampaSpin:
Lake effect snow in South Carolina......YOU gotta love it.....LMAO

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FLOW DURING THIS TIME WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...OR ACROSS LAKE MARION AND LAKE MOULTRIE. AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE WATERS...A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
IS ALSO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND FROM THE LAKES. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
Hey, StormJunkie - I believe that Goose Creek would be downwind of Moultrie/Marion - You may get your wish!

Getting the picture now. The SW wind seen at the buoys at the moment has nothing to do with the low in question and is just the normal prevailing breeze that is typical for us (that is why our piazza's, porches face either south or west).
We are still waiting for the low to pass over us and into the Atlantic - looks like it enters somewhere south of Charleston, right? Once out into the Atlantic, when it begins the move north, it will depend on how close to the coast it travels, as to whether we will get anything to write home about here on the peninsula.
In any case - North Carolina, hold on to your hats and get out the shovels!

Quoting presslord:
I can't help it Drak....I HATE the very thought of snow...it makes me even more ornery than usual...


Hopefully it doesn't make you completely socially inept
Quoting presslord:
I can't help it Drak....I HATE the very thought of snow...it makes me even more ornery than usual...


Press think what a picture you could post in snow shoes while sailing tomorrow....LMAO
You pretty much nailed it there KEH

As for the lake effect, I think I am more down wind of a N wind more then a NW...Close either way and will depend a lot on exactly how this thing tracks.
OMG. The factory where I work just shutdown for tomorrow. Mind you, it's 50+ right now. This is incredible.
my son is a senior in high school...he has to cross 3 big bridges to get to school....he's in his room lighting candles and saying a rosary to the patron saint of whatever for ice/snow tomorrow....must have a test of some sort....
78. TampaSpin

Great link. Thanks.
Quoting presslord:
SJ....zip it about the snow....


Happy dance Happy dance... I do love snow.. just not here :)
Quoting presslord:
my son is a senior in high school...he has to cross 3 big bridges to get to school....he's in his room lighting candles and saying a rosary to the patron saint of whatever for ice/snow tomorrow....must have a test of some sort....


Why doesn't he just take the day off?
afternoon all,our neverending January continues here in the northeast,looks like you in the south are getting a little taste of it.
Quoting Seastep:
78. TampaSpin

Great link. Thanks.


Your welcome.......i have so many links on my computer i have no idea whats there half the time.....LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy dance Happy dance... I do love snow.. just not here :)


Orca this is all your fault to begin with....this dam cold air came from your neck of the lands.......LOL
Quoting Drakoen:


Why doesn't he just take the day off?


'cause his father pays a lot of money to educate his butt and would ground him with extreme prejudice if he "just takes the day off".......
And now MHC joined the act....still calling for the 3-5 or 3-6 range.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>093-200945-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.090120T0500Z-090121T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.090120T0500Z-090121T0100Z/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
JONES-CRAVEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...COLUMBIA...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...
WASHINGTON...RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...
KENANSVILLE...BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE...
POLLOCKSVILLE...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK
255 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM
EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 8 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THEN
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST TUESDAY. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. WIDESPREAD
SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE INLAND AREAS TUESDAY. ALONG THE COAST
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME ALL SNOW AS
COLDER AIR SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES NORTH WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED...THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Your welcome.......i have so many links on my computer i have no idea whats there half the time.....LOL


That's why the Quick Links are there...At least I can now keep my thirty or so most used organized :~)

No whammie, No whammie, gimmie snow!
You guys have to accept the Naked truth.
Press hates snow, because it is extremely uncomfortable, when you are skulking around outside in only a thong.
Quoting presslord:


'cause his father pays a lot of money to educate his butt and would ground him with extreme prejudice if he "just takes the day off".......


Link...

pottery....you should really be ashamed for putting that image in their minds....
Press, I remember saying the rosary for snow as a kid - without success. My mother explained that someone said the rosary more than I - that it would not snow.

Ok y'all - If you check this graphic - you will see that little bit of white stretch with NO WARNINGS along the Carolina Lowcountry - That would be me and Press. Will think of the rest of you tomorrow :)
Quoting presslord:
pottery....you should really be ashamed for putting that image in their minds....


That really was a very curl thought...Press you really got a reputation now....LOL
Cotillion....unfortunately for my children...I expect a far higher threshold of behavior of them than I exhibited as a teenager....or than I exhibit as a adult, for that matter....
Yeah. Well, sorry about that.
Did not mean to cause anyone a coronary or anything with the thought of that image.
Truly Ghastly.
Let it be.......
Oh good grief!
Is the Princess whining about snow?

Quoting presslord:
Cotillion....unfortunately for my children...I expect a far higher threshold of behavior of them than I exhibited as a teenager....or than I exhibit as a adult, for that matter....


I think that goes for a lot of parents! (Well, ones who care.)

"Do as I say, not as I do/did."

Children and teenagers whine and complain, and yet the majority will do exactly the same thing when they have kids...

One of those circles of truth, I guess. :p
vort...the Princess wants snow...I'm whining about it....
LOL Vort.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
251 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

VALID 00Z TUE JAN 20 2009 - 12Z WED JAN 21 2009

A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CAPE COD SOUTHWESTWARD TO A SURFACE
WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE WAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST AND INTENSIFY BECOMING A DEEP LOW AS
THE STORM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM NEVER
DEVELOPS A GOOD CONNECTION TO ATLANTIC OR GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
... SO ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

MEANWHILE ... WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY ... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION ... WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ...
ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST OVER THE
REGION. FURTHERMORE ... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ZIEGENFELDER




Tuesday...12Z:


Photobucket

GOES-12 Ch-3 (WV) Link
vort...the Princess wants snow...I'm whining about it....


Thanks for the clarification...I missed the beginning.


The stage is reset in New Orleans
Link

Placido Domingo helps the Mahalia Jackson Theater come back in style.
By Randy Lewis reporting from new orleans > > >
January 19, 2009

New Orleans, hammered by Hurricane Katrina 3 1/2 years ago and still lurching toward a full recovery, received a helping hand -- and voice -- Saturday.

Photos: Link
Wednesday could be in Cuba the coldest day since the winter began.
Some models are actually saying the west coast of Florida could get a snowflake or two before it's all said and done.
We had hail here, twice in recorded history....
Quoting weatherbro:
Some models are actually saying the west coast of Florida could get a snowflake or two before it's all said and done.


I posted the same in my Blog this morning....Its been i believe 24 years since snow has fallen in Tampa Southward. Not saying it will Snow but, i believe the biggest chance would be North of Tampa near the Center of the State and on the EAst Coast.
LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW! Like Bonedog, I want snow!
Quoting presslord:
vort...the Princess wants snow...I'm whining about it....



Hmmm wears a dress... threatens to wear a Bikini.. some strange dude wants him in a thong... Princess Presslord.. sort of fits now...
TimesOnline
January 17, 2009

Met Office forecasts a supercomputer embarrassment

A new £33m machine purchased to calculate how climate change will affect Britain, has a giant carbon footprint of its own

Jonathan Leake, Science and Environment Editor

For the Met Office the forecast is considerable embarrassment. It has spent £33m on a new supercomputer to calculate how climate change will affect Britain – only to find the new machine has a giant carbon footprint of its own.

“The new supercomputer, which will become operational later this year, will emit 14,400 tonnes of CO2 a year,” said Dave Britton, the Met Office’s chief press officer. This is equivalent to the CO2 emitted by 2,400 homes – generating an average of six tonnes each a year.

The Met Office recently published some of its most drastic predictions for future climate change. It warned: “If no action is taken to curb global warming temperatures are likely to rise by 5.5ºC and could rise as much as 7ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Early and rapid reductions in CO2 emissions are required to avoid significant impacts of climate change.”

However, when it came to buying a new supercomputer, the Met Office decided not to heed its own warnings. The ironic problem was that it needed the extra computing power to improve the accuracy of its own climate predictions as well as its short-term weather forecasting. The machine will also improve its ability to predict extreme events such as fierce localised storms, cloudbursts and so on.
Quoting presslord:
TimesOnline
January 17, 2009

Met Office forecasts a supercomputer embarrassment

A new £33m machine purchased to calculate how climate change will affect Britain, has a giant carbon footprint of its own

Jonathan Leake, Science and Environment Editor

For the Met Office the forecast is considerable embarrassment. It has spent £33m on a new supercomputer to calculate how climate change will affect Britain – only to find the new machine has a giant carbon footprint of its own.

“The new supercomputer, which will become operational later this year, will emit 14,400 tonnes of CO2 a year,” said Dave Britton, the Met Office’s chief press officer. This is equivalent to the CO2 emitted by 2,400 homes – generating an average of six tonnes each a year.

The Met Office recently published some of its most drastic predictions for future climate change. It warned: “If no action is taken to curb global warming temperatures are likely to rise by 5.5ºC and could rise as much as 7ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Early and rapid reductions in CO2 emissions are required to avoid significant impacts of climate change.”

However, when it came to buying a new supercomputer, the Met Office decided not to heed its own warnings. The ironic problem was that it needed the extra computing power to improve the accuracy of its own climate predictions as well as its short-term weather forecasting. The machine will also improve its ability to predict extreme events such as fierce localised storms, cloudbursts and so on.


This is from the same country that is planning on banning large flat screen TV's... due to power consumption.. go figure.
140. eddye
all of south fla is now under a wind chill advisory so it going to feel like in the upper 20
There seems to be a definite set up of two groups down there,one wants it to snow,the other would love never to see a flake of snow.
Should be interesting to see which group gets what they want.
Post 138. How is that even possible.
Unless they have built a new oil-fired powerplant to run the thing, or is it being driven around in a deisel train, or what.
Can someone explain this ??
M A N M A D E G L O B A L W A R M I N G
D E N I A L I S T !!!
LOL Gulf.
soooooooooooo....

How about that Washington weather for the inauguration and that Carolina Snow Storm
...we're all doomed....
For the record:

There is no such place as "Carolina", "the Carolinas", "the Carolina coast", etc.

ya got North Carolina and ya got South Carolina...
Quoting presslord:
...we're all doomed....


We are if you post a pic of a Thong on.......ROFLMAO
Quoting presslord:
For the record:

There is no such place as "Carolina", "the Carolinas", "the Carolina coast", etc.

ya got North Carolina and ya got South Carolina...


Therefore no carolina snowstorm
Quoting presslord:
For the record:

There is no such place as "Carolina", "the Carolinas", "the Carolina coast", etc.

ya got North Carolina and ya got South Carolina...


We agreed last year... The Carols.
Quoting presslord:
For the record:

There is no such place as "Carolina", "the Carolinas", "the Carolina coast", etc.

ya got North Carolina and ya got South Carolina...



I was just trying to avoid a Bushism...

"Yess, were trakings the Carolinas snows storms potentialities, and misunderestimating the deepness of the snows."
(i would like some snow here toooooo)
"misunderestimated" is my favorite word...
Quoting pottery:
We had hail here, twice in recorded history....

Pottery, it seems to me that we have a fair number of instances of hail, so I looked for information and found this:
The following information taken directly from this NWS research paper of severe weather incidents in the Charleston, SC, CWA (20 counties in eastern South Carolina and Georgia)

Three different types of severe weather were investigated: tornadoes, severe convective wind, and severe hail.

Each tornadic event was recorded as a tornado segment, defined as a portion of a tornado track through a given county. For example, one tornado which moved uninterrupted through two counties was considered two tornado segments. Therefore, the total number of tornadoes was less than the number of tornado segments represented in this database.
1950-1993** - 112 tornado segment reports

A severe convective wind event was defined as either an event with a convective wind gust of 50 knots or greater, or visible structural damage due to convective wind.
1955-1993** 478 severe convective wind reports

Severe hail was defined as hail greater than or equal to 0.75 inches in diameter.
1955-1993** 155 severe hail reports

The distribution of reports was fairly uniform across the county warning area, though reports were more concentrated in highly populated regions around Charleston, Beaufort and Savannah.

**(Note this data does not include 1973 - which was not stored)
New Research Confirms-
That Dr. J. Masters, concerned that GW was being caused by Humans, created this site to confirm his argument. At any one time, there are so many people on this site, emmitting CO2 like mad, through their computers, that the numbers are rising dramatically. Proving Dr. M's point.
"It looks looks he created the problem to fix his prognosis" said one learned twit."The only solution, is to stop blogging" continued our sauce.

Quoting melwerle:
(i would like some snow here toooooo)



no's snows for yous misses....

snow is whites... HAINT BLUE.
Bay Area (Tampa Bay News 9) -- The Bay area could see a few snow flurries with the arrival of a second cold front this week.

The front will move through the Bay area overnight Monday, ushering the coldest air this season. Yes, colder than last week.

"The moisture will fall as snow and melt on the way down as temperatures near the surface will be in the 50s," said Bay News 9 chief meteorologist Mike Clay. "However, it isn't out of the question a few snowflakes or flurries might make it down."
Wow.. Quick, already has a well defined eye.
:(

Would just love for the kids to see it just once. Guess we'll just get some more RAIN. Booooooooooo.
I guess some people think you can mis in front of any word,and its legit,i.e. Roger Clemens and his claim that his buddy misremembered.
HEH, I knew that you had severe weather from time to time. Did not realise the numbers were so high........
Quoting Orcasystems:


This is from the same country that is planning on banning large flat screen TV's... due to power consumption.. go figure.


That's a new one to me.

But with this pathetic government, it wouldn't surprise me.
Sell your large flatscreen, quick, Cot. Before the word is out on the street....
Interesting KEH.

I believe (or I read somewhere) that the UK is actually the most tornadic area in the world...

Something like the most tornadoes per sq mile.

Difference being that the highest we'd get is EF2/F2. We don't get EF5s, thank the Lord.
Quoting melwerle:
:(

Would just love for the kids to see it just once. Guess we'll just get some more RAIN. Booooooooooo.


Bet you do see some white stuff.....MEL
Quoting pottery:
Sell your large flatscreen, quick, Cot. Before the word is out on the street....


Or migrate, presumably.

Who wants to put me up? :D
Last time FL had snow was 1977. I recall being a little tike. My father woke me up at midnight to see the specks of dandruff. By morning, there was a coating on the ground. We still had to go to school but sure memorable!!
A geographical quirk makes the United States the most tornado-prone country in the world.
Link
Are you SERIOUS Tampa? Or you just yanking my chain...
Quoting melwerle:
Are you SERIOUS Tampa? Or you just yanking my chain...


No kidding.....
Quoting melwerle:
Are you SERIOUS Tampa? Or you just yanking my chain...


Rain first then turn over to Sleet of snow late nite.
Cotillion - you would always be welcomed here

South Carolina Snow Facts

Most Snow (SC State Climatology Office):
February 1969 - Caesars Head, elevation 3200 feet, measures 33.9 inches of snow and establishes the monthly snowfall record for the state. Between February 15-17 freezing rain fell over most of central South Carolina downing limbs, and disrupting electrical service for at least 45,000 users for up to two weeks.

Most snow accumulation in Charleston - Dec 24, 1989. 8 inches - enough to cover the mounds of Hugo debris that was still around. Broke the record of 7.1 inches set back in February, 1973.
Quoting TampaSpin:


No kidding.....


will have to ask my sister down there if she wants to borrow my snow shovel
NO WAY...I'm gonna have to stay up late for this - can't sleep through that kind of weather...will be waking up the kids and marching them outside to see it too! Woo hoooooo...

As long as I don't have to go out sailing in it, I'm good. No more frigid stuff on the water...my chapstick didn't work either. :(
Quoting weathers4me:
Last time FL had snow was 1977. I recall being a little tike. My father woke me up at midnight to see the specks of dandruff. By morning, there was a coating on the ground. We still had to go to school but sure memorable!!
LOL..That is way not true.
Had 3 1/2 inches in 93 in Lake City. It snows more than you think here...once is too much.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVEN
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE FANELE (07-20082009)
22:00 PM Réunion January 19 2009
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fanele (972 hPa) located at 21.7S 41.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving northeast at 5 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 80 in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.1S 41.9E - 70 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.1S 43.3E - 80 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.7S 46.3E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
72 HRS: 25.5S 50.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Microwave imagery (SSMI/1621z - SSMIS/1508z - AMSU/1406z) shows clearly a very small inner core with a very small eye too. Severe Tropical Storm Fanele is beneath very favorable environmental conditions under the upper level ridge with good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one, related to the rebuilding high pressure in the southwest. So Fanele is expected to strengthen regularly however, dry air intrusion in the 36 hours could limit this intensification. Most of the available NWP models show an eastern turn towards the western coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both tracks and speed. Current forecast is based on a general consensus.

INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ERIC (06-20082009)
22:00 PM Réunion January 19 2009
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (997 hPa) located at 20.2S 49.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.2S 49.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 25.1S 49.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 31.1S 52.8E - 40 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 35.1S 65.8E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
Winds structure is asymmetric (Greater winds extension in the eastern semi-circle). System has tracked south along the western edge of the subtropical ridge centered in the east. Beyond 36 hours, it should turn southeast and evacuate with the transiting trough. The system can benefit from an intensification window up to 24 hours, as wind shear should temporarily decrease and an upper trough should improve the poleward outflow. NWP models are in good agreement and the forecast track is a consensus.
Quoting Cotillion:


That's a new one to me.

But with this pathetic government, it wouldn't surprise me.



Giant plasma TVs face ban in battle to green Britain
theshepherd 9:56 PM GMT on January 19, 2009
Quoting weathers4me:
Last time FL had snow was 1977. I recall being a little tike. My father woke me up at midnight to see the specks of dandruff. By morning, there was a coating on the ground. We still had to go to school but sure memorable!!
LOL..That is way not true.
Had 3 1/2 inches in 93 in Lake City. It snows more than you think here...once is too much.
Sorry, I meant snowfall in Tampa.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Rain first then turn over to Sleet of snow late nite.


Happy Dance Happy Dance :)
"... no one shall be allowed to watch Monty Python reruns on large screen TV's....."


Quoting Orcasystems:



Giant plasma TVs face ban in battle to green Britain


Thanks....

Yet more regulation.

Maybe they thought 1984 was an instruction manual, not a warning...
Quoting weathers4me:
theshepherd 9:56 PM GMT on January 19, 2009
Quoting weathers4me:
Last time FL had snow was 1977. I recall being a little tike. My father woke me up at midnight to see the specks of dandruff. By morning, there was a coating on the ground. We still had to go to school but sure memorable!!
LOL..That is way not true.
Had 3 1/2 inches in 93 in Lake City. It snows more than you think here...once is too much.
Sorry, I meant snowfall in Tampa.


10-4 for Tampa as far as ground accumulation. Miami had 1/2" on the ground in 89.
Hah!

Great minds think alike GulfPoet :D
WOW, shows how little I know about my own state. I guess it snows here more than I thought.
".. no worries darling... we don't need TV... We have the great outdoors.... the woods... the birds... the lakes and rivers... we don't care..."


Sorry Orca (NOT) - You should continue to concentrate on Florida!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
506 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.NOW...
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. NO MORE THAN ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH 7 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S...SO HERE IS NO CONCERNS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

re: post # 156....please note the Freudian slip...'sauce' instead of 'source'...'splains a lot ....
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Sorry Orca (NOT) - You should continue to concentrate on Florida!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
506 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.NOW...
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. NO MORE THAN ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH 7 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S...SO HERE IS NO CONCERNS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.



True.. its the panhandle and Tampa I am actually hoping for :)

I am extremely disappointed in Presslord today.. he is not on his game.. maybe he is ill?

Whut?!?!?!
Maybe he is "sauced"?
About the weather for tomrrow's festivities in Washington DC. I live here and I know all too well the pecularities of local conditions. The temperature forcast will be pretty accurate but the precip probably won't. Today the predicted snow missed us on the I95 corridor and dumped 1 inch in Baltimore. Once had a friend call from the hinterland and announce that it was raining here because the Weather Channel said so. Took a long time to get thru about geography, visual scale on radar screens and general accuracy!!!!!!!!!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Sorry Orca (NOT) - You should continue to concentrate on Florida!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
506 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009

.NOW...
A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING. NO MORE THAN ONE HUNDREDTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH 7 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S...SO HERE IS NO CONCERNS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIQUID PRECIPITATION.



Strange...Where did you see that KEH...This is the short term that is in the discussion. Tricky situation coming up tomorrow...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WE HAVE INITIATED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS OUR
INLAND SC COUNTIES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER
THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE CHARLESTON OR BEAUFORT COUNTIES...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE DEPENDING UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
REACHES THE ATLC AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS.
Stormjunkie - here

MODIFIED - NOTE IS ONLY UNTIL 7PM
SJ.....you're wishcasting....vort....you're encouraging him....
Stormjunkie - I think the confusion comes in because the forecast for the area includes near term, short term, long term etc., and means something a bit different.

The "short term" that I quoted is a short term advisory - not forecast - it is the same as the "now cast" on the WU site
KEH....I still think we may have problems with the bridges....
Quoting theshepherd:


10-4 for Tampa as far as ground accumulation. Miami had 1/2" on the ground in 89.

Christmas 1989, I-75, I-10 and I-95, were all shut down due to a snow storm around Valdosta GA, Eastward to Jacksonville FL, and Southward to Lake City FL. At least one death in car wreck around I-75, exit 22, due to the storm. Multiple injuries in other car wrecks. Water main supplying the hospital in Valdosta GA froze and broke, cutting off water above the second floor of the hospital for 2 or 3 days.
Press you not gonna escape it bud...
Link
Link
Quoting Drakoen:
Press you not gonna escape it bud...
Link
Link



Uuggghhhh!!!!! Well...my son will be thrilled with this drak...
Quoting presslord:
KEH....I still think we may have problems with the bridges....

Could be, in any case, I will be right here. (Actually 'cause I am sick with a terrible, rotten, awful, hacking-cough, yucky, disgusting kind of cold - they told me to stay home - go figure, eh?) Ok folks send the sympathy my way :)

Quoting Drakoen:
Press you not gonna escape it bud...
Link
Link

Drak - say it ain't so.
Quoting Cotillion:
Interesting KEH.

I believe (or I read somewhere) that the UK is actually the most tornadic area in the world...

Something like the most tornadoes per sq mile.

Difference being that the highest we'd get is EF2/F2. We don't get EF5s, thank the Lord.


This is true... but you guys get mostly crop circle types, EF0's that touch down for a second.
btw....I haven't been called "bud" in a while.....Gosh I miss that guy...
Besides CONUS is a huge area of land - I have no difficulty believing that England would have more tornadic activity per square mile.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Besides CONUS is a huge area of land - I have no difficulty believing that England would have more tornadic activity per square mile.


that's what he meant, i thought... however, the most tornadic area of the world per square mile is in Brazil... i forget where but i saw it...and the US does get the most total, disregarding density....

Dr. Masters and I send our snow down to you from MI... we have about a foot on the ground... just for you Press... : )
Quoting presslord:
btw....I haven't been called "bud" in a while.....Gosh I miss that guy...


LOL. Moment of silence....
GOM IR Loop..Link
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop..Link


and as always, Patrap's trying to get us back on track...futilely
Quoting Drakoen:


LOL. Moment of silence....
where's it gonna snow?!?!
Thanks KEH, I got ya now.

Quoting tkeith:
where's it gonna snow?!?!


More like:

ZOMG!!! Where's it gonna snow!?!?!?!?!?!?!Where's it gonna snow!?!?!?!?!?!?! Where's it gonna snow!?!?!?!?!?!?! Are you sure we're gonna get 12 feet of the white stuff?!?!?!?!?!
Quoting Drakoen:


More like:

ZOMG!!! Where's it gonna snow!?!?!?!?!?!?!Where's it gonna snow!?!?!?!?!?!?! Where's it gonna snow!?!?!?!?!?!?! Are you sure we're gonna get 12 feet of the white stuff?!?!?!?!?!
LMAO!
Look at Thursday 7am Temperature forecast......more than half the of Florida is forecast to be at 25deg or colder...WOW!!

Quoting TampaSpin:
Bay Area (Tampa Bay News 9) -- The Bay area could see a few snow flurries with the arrival of a second cold front this week.

The front will move through the Bay area overnight Monday, ushering the coldest air this season. Yes, colder than last week.

"The moisture will fall as snow and melt on the way down as temperatures near the surface will be in the 50s," said Bay News 9 chief meteorologist Mike Clay. "However, it isn't out of the question a few snowflakes or flurries might make it down."


What time do we think this will happen? That sounds like it'll be in the afternoon.
Quoting Tampawxgirl:


What time do we think this will happen? That sounds like it'll be in the afternoon.


Tuesday nite if anything was to happen...
One wicked dip in the Jet Stream caused by the Big High out West and the big Bermuda High......



218. eddye
tampaspin how cold will west palm beach get too
You can see the High here in Water Vapor how it stretches from California into NorthWest Canada and the Southerly Flow all the way into Alaska is keeping Western Alaska very warm....WOW...that High just does not want to move it seems...as long as the High is in that position the East Coast will stay very cold and precip. will fall...


Quoting eddye:
tampaspin how cold will west palm beach get too


It appears about low 30's....
Quoting TampaSpin:


It appears about low 30's....


12z guidance suggests anywhere from 33 degrees to 38 degrees for West Palm Beach Wednesday morning. Certainly will be cold.Link
222. eddye
how about for weston drakoen

Quoting presslord:
Whut?!?!?!


Quoting Orcasystems:



Hmmm wears a dress... threatens to wear a Bikini.. some strange dude wants him in a thong... Princess Presslord.. sort of fits now...

Quoting Orcasystems:


We agreed last year... The Carols.


I can't believe you did not even have a remark :(
1761 Tornado (Charleston) from The Weather Notebook
May 4th dawned cloudy, windy and warm. Shortly after noon, the overhead sky filled with fleeting scud and began rumbling with storm.

Suddenly, the sky began to seethe, and from the southwest, a whirling black pillar, accompanied by lightning and hail, drove toward town. It tossed large branches and uprooted giant oaks before reaching the Ashley River.

There, as Baptist preacher Oliver Hart reported, the tornado ploughed the river to its bottom, laying the channel bare. A 12-foot high wall of water, pushed by the tempest, surged to the sea.

Almost simultaneously, a second storm moved down the Cooper River. Together, the twin twisters raced toward Rebellion Road, the principal anchorage of Charleston Harbor. There they surprised forty anchored British ships, waiting to put to sea. The first tornado, now a waterspout, laid every ship in its path on its beam.

Miraculously, only four lives were lost among the fleet, and the only land death was from a plantation destroyed 25 miles inshore.

Although the storms brought great destruction, their passage over the harbor lasted but three minutes. Then, the weather cleared, and a serene, sunny afternoon prevailed.
If anyone would like to view my Weather Blog i did update it today.....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
I haven't had time to read back on the posts, so sorry if this is a repeat. But it might snow in Tampa tomorrow night! Very exciting for me. I haven't seen snow fall since I was 6 years old, being that I've been a Tampa girl all my life.
Quoting AWeatherLover:
I haven't had time to read back on the posts, so sorry if this is a repeat. But it might snow in Tampa tomorrow night! Very exciting for me. I haven't seen snow fall since I was 6 years old, being that I've been a Tampa girl all my life.


It seems that most of the Florida contingent are looking forward to snow. Looks like dreams do come true :)
LOL! You must be the same age as me, AWeatherLover. Check out TBO.com -- there's an old picture on the weather page. Yesterday, when I first heard about the possibility of snow, I thought my friend was joking!! I don't care if it's just a little flurry... I wanna see snow! :-) (I'm SUCH a Floridian!!)
For the second consecutive year, Kansas had more tornadoes in 2008 than any other state, according to the National Weather Service.
The Sunflower state finished the year with 187 twisters. Texas was second with 116 while Oklahoma, normally a hotbed of twisters, finished the year with 77 tornadoes.
You can see the High here in Water Vapor how it stretches from California into NorthWest Canada


It will be budging after Wednesday...the pattern changes and the southern stream lifts back north.


Photobucket

orca....sorry...my spouse keeps calling me away from the 'puter to discuss business...she's working on taxes....and every few minutes she feels compelled to call me into her study and tell me how stupid I am....
Quoting presslord:
rca....sorry...my spouse keeps calling me away from the 'puter to discuss business...she's working on taxes....and every few minutes she feels compelled to call me into her study and tell me how stupid I am....


Your luck.. mine seldom has to be doing taxes.. or anything for that matter.. to say it to me.
32 years ago today in Tampa......LOL

at least shes calling an not keeping ya in the dark
KEH- not here in Jacksonville, which just happens to be one of the most NORTHERN cities in Florida. No chance of snow, dag-nabbit.
good evening all
Skyepony - Hence the expression - Your not in Kansas anymore! I am grateful that I do not live in tornado alley. The occasional small twister is enough for me (shudder).

Aquak9 - Get Orca on it. He's done a pretty good job of scaring up snow so far.
greetings from the centre of the universe orca
I found the Europe has more tornadoes per area article.. What a load.. cute how they near doubled the observed.. KS had more observed tornadoes & it is a much smaller area.

Europe has plenty of tornadoes, perhaps 300 or more a year, according to a study by Nikolai Dotzek, a scientist with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics — in Wessling, Germany.

That figure includes roughly 170 observed tornadoes in 25 countries and an educated guess that about 130 others were not reported because they dropped from the sky too briefly to be observed or landed unseen in unpopulated areas of the continent.

The United Kingdom has the most tornadoes of any European country, about 33 per year. That number jumps to 50 when unreported tornadoes are added.

This makes the United Kingdom the world’s leader in tornadoes based on number of twisters per area of land.
Quoting presslord:
orca....sorry...my spouse keeps calling me away from the 'puter to discuss business...she's working on taxes....and every few minutes she feels compelled to call me into her study and tell me how stupid I am....


You did tell her thank you as you was leaving the room im sure......LOL
I hear ya~ I'll take a few more 'canes before I'd move to KS..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
greetings from the centre of the universe orca


I see your wish came true..and you sent the snow to Florida
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Skyepony - Hence the expression - Your not in Kansas anymore! I am grateful that I do not live in tornado alley. The occasional small twister is enough for me (shudder).

Aquak9 - Get Orca on it. He's done a pretty good job of scaring up snow so far.


KOG did It... I am S&I :)
Thank you, ma'am!!!!!!!!! May I have another?!?!?!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I see your wish came true..and you sent the snow to Florida
weather ray gun is on full power
Quoting Orcasystems:


KOG did It... I am S&I :)


Then it is KOG, that Floridians should petition for snow.

KOG, remember to skip us here in coastal SOUTH Carolina. Thanking you in advance :)
This just happened about 40 minutes ago........im monitoring of any tidal wave......

Magnitude 5.1 - OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
2009 January 19 23:50:47 UTC
Can't wait to see Al Gore freezing his ass off in DC tomorrow ...
its really deep around here today .... S&I? complaining wife is doing taxes?....
actually as of now according to my tap radar wet snow is just entering sc over the extreme nw of the state
The momment we get a blizzard in South Florida, I am moving!! Fine with Hurricanes, but snow!!!
here on the Sea Islands...amongst the Gullah people...there is a belief that events can be 'conjured up' by speaking of them....so...please....quit talking about South Carolina snow....
Tampa, what are the long range models saying for the next few weeks. in mention of the jet stream? Are we supposed to see another dip in the polar jet?
Quoting zoomiami:
its really deep around here today .... S&I? complaining wife is doing taxes?....


We know I am S&I, we are not to sure how sweet and innocent Presslord is with his taxes
Good catch TampaSpin

sure about That press? Btw I gave john my contact info.
I am not allowed anywhere near the taxes...it's strictly the province of the spouse....
snow
snow
snow
snow
snow
snow
KOG......Shush!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
here on the Sea Islands...amongst the Gullah people...there is a belief that events can be 'conjured up' by speaking of them....so...please....quit talking about South Carolina snow....

"speak it into existence"
Do you think the author of "the Secret" spent some time on the islands?

evening all, dont you just like the ring of SNOW in Tampa and next weekend we will be in the mid 70's. gotta love it!!!
Quoting presslord:
here on the Sea Islands...amongst the Gullah people...there is a belief that events can be 'conjured up' by speaking of them....so...please....quit talking about South Carolina snow....


I wonder, then... If we all start talking about a hurricane, would it then happen? A winter hurricane would certainly be an interesting event, no? :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wonder, then... If we all start talking about a hurricane, would it then happen? A winter hurricane would certainly be an interesting event, no? :)
Ummm.. actually this morning or yesterday, someone was talking about the possibility of something developing - south east Caribbean maybe? Anyone remember?
just imagine, snow flying around at 100 mph. what next?
Kori....Jamaican tradition says they can pray hurricanes away from their island...and they've had a number of near misses which they would credit to that...
263
Hi KEH...I think that was Pottery, he lives way down in the islands.
Koritheman,
I would not recommend that one disregards the wisdom of Sea Island Gullah. Gives me the chills just thinking about it.

Press, sometimes it is fun just to thumb one's nose at conventional wisdom. You know - live dangerously ... snow, snow, snow, snow

And as for conjuring up what you speak about, perhaps we should quit talking about global you know what
Quoting severstorm:
just imagine, snow flying around at 100 mph. what next?
Cotillion can tell you about winter gales

Miss Nadia, Hello - and I think you are right.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I wonder, then... If we all start talking about a hurricane, would it then happen? A winter hurricane would certainly be an interesting event, no? :)
snowcane that would be something for sure
Does anyone know the conditions necessary for snow. As in warmest temp and dew point.... I know it doesn't have to be freezing.
Add a noreaster to the blizzard - snowcane!
Well, unlike the US, we have about 38 cm (15 in) of snow on the ground right now. Anyone notice the two tropical cyclones that just developed near Madagascar? Also, anyone know when the Inauguration ends, because I would like to know if I'll be watching the last part of it (the Parade) live, or if I'll have to watch the whole thing as a re-run when I get home.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Does anyone know the conditions necessary for snow. As in warmest temp and dew point.... I know it doesn't have to be freezing.
surface temps between 35f and 39f
dew points between 28f 33 f
may equal to one or all of the following
ice pellets
small hail
wet snow
Snowcane shown here



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
surface temps between 35f and 39f
dew points between 28f 33 f
may equal to one or all of the following
ice pellets
small hail
wet snow


Thanks!
i've been in many a snow cane sully being borned and raised in newfoundland i've seen more than my share
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Does anyone know the conditions necessary for snow. As in warmest temp and dew point.... I know it doesn't have to be freezing.

Try This Link. However it's in Celcius (to convert Farenheit into Celcius, first subtract 32, then multiply by five, then divide the result by 9; the formula would look like C = 5/9 (F - 32) ). However, it's not always accurate, because for example one time it was 7C here at my location in S. Ontario, on October 12, 2006, and it snowed (but that's nothing compared to Fort Erie and Buffalo who got 80 cm (32 in) of snow)!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i've been in many a snow cane sully being borned and raised in newfoundland i've seen more than my share


I bet!

Nor'easters are always at their most intense stage when they make it up that way...

What's the deepest snowpack you've had while there?
Public Weather Statement for Tampa Bay Area. Mentions possibility of snow.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/getprodversionnew.php?&pil=PNS&sid=TBW
A little out of season - but what the heck
I believe it has snowed at temps as high as 51 (which is the record).
KOTG - Yikes -
In & Out -- got an hour of surf today -- Weather and Water temp. not too cold. It would be a trip to surf while it was snowing --but not enough to ask for it.
Surfmom - Glad you were able to take to the waves today

Good night folks
I'm sorry the record for warmest temperature for a snowfall is actually 47F at LaGuardia airport (not 51).
It's going to be cold in Tampa, when will be the best time for snow here? Anyone know?
Quoting severstorm:
evening all, dont you just like the ring of SNOW in Tampa and next weekend we will be in the mid 70's. gotta love it!!!


We have the best weather here in Tampa :)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHT
TROPICAL CYCLONE FANELE (07-20082009)
4:00 AM Réunion January 20 2009
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Fanele (950 hPa) located at 21.1S 41.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 5 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM from the center extending up to 110 in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 42.7E - 90 knots (Intense Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.8 /43.8E - 100 knots (Intense Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 23.4S 47.2E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
72 HRS: 25.1S 50.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Fanele has rapidly intensified undergoing very favorable environmental condition under the upper level ridge with good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one, related to the rebuilding high pressures in the southwest. Most of the available NWP models show and eastern turn towards the western coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both track and speed. Current forecast is based on a general consensus.

INTERESTED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD VERY CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Quoting dearmas:
It's going to be cold in Tampa, when will be the best time for snow here? Anyone know?
12-5 tomorrow night
Large cells heading toward the Bay area in the next hour. Risk of severe hail and gusts up to 70mph.
That's just an off-shore anomaly Sully!

LOL

Cheney in wheelchair after pulling back muscle
Vice president was moving boxes into his home outside Washington, D.C.
Link

updated 7:11 p.m. CT, Mon., Jan. 19, 2009

WASHINGTON - Vice President Dick Cheney pulled a muscle in his back while moving boxes and will be in a wheelchair for Tuesday's inauguration ceremony.

White House press secretary Dana Perino said Monday that Cheney was helping to move into his new home outside Washington in McLean, Va., when he injured his back.

His doctor recommended that he needed a wheelchair for the next couple of days.
290 and there only calling for showers. i've been watching those storms for about an hour. there moving around 45kts. wow in an out.
Quoting severstorm:
290 and there only calling for showers. i've been watching those storms for about an hour. there moving around 45kts. wow in an out.




I'm just curious.
Not bashing you.

But how do you expect to be taken seriously on the blogs with a mispelled handle?
Impressive storms heading fr Tampa Bay area. But I'm not seeing hail, 290. One storm pretty far north says 40% chance of hail <0.5 in. Where did you see possibility for hail FLWeatherFreak?
294,severestorm was taken and i thought this would be different. no harm taken your not the first or last to ask.
295 i saw hail earlier closer to tampa in the BO storm. gone now and it was comming towards pasco county.
storm heading towards me was briefly a high probability hailer, but is down to 20% probability now.
Don't even start...this is not off-topic:


What Recession? The $170 Million Inauguration



The country is in the middle of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, which isn't stopping rich donors and the government from spending $170 million, or more, on the inauguration of Barack Obama .

The actual swearing-in ceremony will cost $1.24 million, according to Carole Florman, spokeswoman for the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies.

It's the security, parties and countless Porta-a-Potty rentals that really run up the bill.

The federal government estimates that it will spend roughly $49 million on the inaugural weekend. Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland have requested another $75 million from the federal government to help pay for their share of police, fire and medical services.

And then there is the party bill.

"We have a budget of roughly $45 million, maybe a little bit more," said Linda Douglass, spokeswoman for the inaugural committee.

That's more than the $42.3 million in private funds spent by President Bush's committee in 2005 or the $33 million spent for Bill Clinton's first inaugural in 1993.

Sign Up for Our RSS Feed and Get the Latest Business Headlines From ABC News

Douglass said that this will be the "most open and accessible inauguration in history," with members of the general public able to participate on a greater scale than ever before.

"The money is going toward providing events which we hope are going to connect people, make them feel like we are all in this together and reinforce the notion that when we pull together, we're stronger," Douglass said. "And we need to pull together to face the challenges that are before us today."

Among the expenses: a Bruce Springsteen concert, the parade, large-screen TV rentals for all-free viewing on the national Mall, $700,000 to the Smithsonian Institution to stay open and, of course, the balls, including three that are being pitched as free or low cost for the public.

But there are plenty of rich donors willing to pick up the tab.

"They are not the $20 and $50 donors who helped propel Obama through Election Day," said Massie Ritsch, communications director for the Center for Responsive Politics. "These are people giving mostly $50,000 apiece. They tend to be corporate executives, celebrities, the elite of the elite."

The rest of article...

Good spending on something worth celebrating! thanks vort :)
Good spending on something worth celebrating! thanks vort :)

God help you!

vortfix, we were just talkin about this to day. i guess if ya got it spent it. not real smart if ya ask me.
Quoting vortfix:
Don't even start...this is not off-topic:


What Recession? The $170 Million Inauguration



The country is in the middle of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, which isn't stopping rich donors and the government from spending $170 million, or more, on the inauguration of Barack Obama .

The actual swearing-in ceremony will cost $1.24 million, according to Carole Florman, spokeswoman for the Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies.

It's the security, parties and countless Porta-a-Potty rentals that really run up the bill.

The federal government estimates that it will spend roughly $49 million on the inaugural weekend. Washington, D.C., Virginia and Maryland have requested another $75 million from the federal government to help pay for their share of police, fire and medical services.

And then there is the party bill.

"We have a budget of roughly $45 million, maybe a little bit more," said Linda Douglass, spokeswoman for the inaugural committee.

That's more than the $42.3 million in private funds spent by President Bush's committee in 2005 or the $33 million spent for Bill Clinton's first inaugural in 1993.

Sign Up for Our RSS Feed and Get the Latest Business Headlines From ABC News

Douglass said that this will be the "most open and accessible inauguration in history," with members of the general public able to participate on a greater scale than ever before.

"The money is going toward providing events which we hope are going to connect people, make them feel like we are all in this together and reinforce the notion that when we pull together, we're stronger," Douglass said. "And we need to pull together to face the challenges that are before us today."

Among the expenses: a Bruce Springsteen concert, the parade, large-screen TV rentals for all-free viewing on the national Mall, $700,000 to the Smithsonian Institution to stay open and, of course, the balls, including three that are being pitched as free or low cost for the public.

But there are plenty of rich donors willing to pick up the tab.

"They are not the $20 and $50 donors who helped propel Obama through Election Day," said Massie Ritsch, communications director for the Center for Responsive Politics. "These are people giving mostly $50,000 apiece. They tend to be corporate executives, celebrities, the elite of the elite."

The rest of article...



What a BS article. When it mentions Obama's number figure it includes all the security and the costs to the surrounding towns. When it mentions Bush's inagural costs it leaves OUT all the security and costs to surrounding towns. Who wrote such BAD journalism and why are you dumb enuff to quote it? Sheeesh. Get a brain.
304. jeffB
"not off topic"? Now I'll be spending the rest of the night wondering how I accidentally clicked on the "bitter political whining" blog link.

It's a darn shame all that money is being bundled up and tossed into the Potomac, instead of being paid to local workers, small businesses, and so on.
I did not write the article pal....


Link
jeffB great answer!!
Quoting jeffB:
"not off topic"? Now I'll be spending the rest of the night wondering how I accidentally clicked on the "bitter political whining" blog link.

It's a darn shame all that money is being bundled up and tossed into the Potomac, instead of being paid to local workers, small businesses, and so on.


Think of all the millions of people (literally) who are getting that money! Cops, restaurant owners, shop owners, hotels, caterers...think of the tax revenues!!! Seems like a huge boon to local workers and small business owners.
its ok vort remember its the trillion dollar man
no vort, but you quoted it thoughtlessly.
I only thought about it for 30 seconds man.

That is all!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its ok vort remember its the trillion dollar man


Uh...wasnt it Bush and the GOP who ran our deficit into the trillions and left the country with a crashing economy? Obama isnt even in office and you're blaming him for everything Bush did wrong.

Fanele looks like a mini cat 4
give me a trillion dollars and i could change the world too
instead of being paid to local workers, small businesses, and so on.

Ok...it is so unlike me to even dabble in this stuff. It belongs in a politics blog...Never the less...

In all honesty it is being paid to the local workers, small businesses, and so on as you say. How full do you think the hotels, coffee houses, bars, restaurants, etc will be?
Quoting vortfix:
I only thought about it for 30 seconds man.

That is all!



...no kidding...

oh well.
Don't get all excited y'all.
Barry has a lot of proving to do.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
give me a trillion dollars and i could change the world too


But would you ruin it? Probably not. Hopefully not. Got to give it to Bush for trying at least.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Fanele looks like a mini cat 4


Indeed, the pinhole eye seems to be emerging from the vort max
After the disaster that was "dubya" I have hopes that Barack Obama will be much better. And that is all I have to say on that.
hes going to be given a trillion more to fix the trillion those before him wasted
Fanele looks like a 3 still to me, but give it time ;)
You have high hopes Simon!
Good luck with that.


A pin-hole eye???

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SIX-F
9:00 AM FST January 20 2009
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance Six-F (1008 hPa) located at 13.0S 157.0W is reported as slow moving. Position GOOD based on infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral observations, and latest QUIKSCAT
Pass. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C.

Disturbance SIX lies along a trough, under a 250 HPA diffluence region in a low sheared environment. Low level circulation center obscured and convection has increased in the last 24 hours with a marked improvement in observations. Convection is confirmed to the north and east of Tropical Disturbance SIX.

Global models [UK/US] has picked up the system and moves it southwest then souht with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD SIX TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
First pin hole of 2009 how come we never hear of rapid intensification in other oceans 55-135 in 24 hours is a very impressive feat
StSimons, so how much rain did ya get up there?
0.24 yesterday, and haven't checked my rain gauge yet. Will wait till the last showers go by to check:
There is no pin-hole eye...anywhere!

this is strange

Why is the blog busy today? lol
Quoting vortfix:
There is no pin-hole eye...anywhere!



I said emerging
because of southern snow and politics, futuremet.
You think the Blog is Busy now?..

..just wait till the Cape Verde season rolls around..


Faster,..faster..



futuremet, so busy cause theres a chance of snow showers in tampa. blog was really movin a couple of hours ago.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
because of southern snow and politics, futuremet.


Oh yes of course..inauguration is tomorrow.

I almost forgot * I-idiot*
we will be getting 300 posts an hr then if not more pat
Quoting severstorm:
futuremet, so busy cause theres a chance of snow showers in tampa. blog was really movin a couple of hours ago.


I missed out a lot then...

The blog is usually quiet during this time of year
335 your right, normally slow lots going on today
futuremet....and the other newbies....you have no idea what might happen at any given moment on these blogs!

Most of you do not realize that there are hundreds of other blogs besides Dr. Master's blog.
I wonder what handle JFV will use this season?
LMAO TK!

thats a good ? tkeith, think we should run a contest? LOL
I think press misses him...
Quoting vortfix:
futuremet....and the other newbies....you have no idea what might happen at any given moment on these blogs!



Gee take it easy on me lol
sounded earlier like press was havin a bad day. there was talk of snow up his way.
Quoting severstorm:
sounded earlier like press was havin a bad day. there was talk of snow up his way.
nothing a good bottle of Bourbon wont fix...lol.
boy you all see how fast them storms are moving around Tampa, one is cruzing at 72kts.
yes i agree, but nobody told him that.
temp.going up and pressure going down fairly quick 1002.3 here in zephyrhills fl
Hey severe, have you seen K-man on the blogs lately? I guess there is still alot of rebuilding going on in the Caymans...
It's Monday so ya'll get an ENSO rant.

Leveled off, next kelvin wave, as expected. I think we'll see a little more cooler before a slow warming a little past when it tends to do most seasons. ESPI went from -1.03 to -1.16 this week. & wow last months' models were mostly off.
no i have not been about a month since i saw him
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1045 PM EST MON JAN 19 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA. EASTERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 1100 PM EST * AT 1046 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUSHNELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LAKE PANASOFFKEE BY 1050 PM EST. WILDWOOD BY 1055 PM EST. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 314 AND 321. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS. TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW SPOT. PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323
TS looks like a really good line moving threw. getting stronger instead of weakening like usual.
Subsequent to the arrival of the Kata front that is currently over Northern FL, conditions will go downhill. The mesoscale (A) cyclone that is associated with that front will deepen rapidly as it moves towards the Atlantic. Substantial pressure gradient will cause high North winds to advect plenty of cold air southward. The anomalous dip within the upper level jet will further contribute to the quantity of cold air that is advecting south.

IM READY COLD!!

GFS 18Z
Here's Tampa radar
School tomorrow

bye...
Quoting vortfix:
I only thought about it for 30 seconds man.

That is all!



I am impressed.. thats much longer then you normally think.
Is it snowing in Tampa yet Tim?



Take care my friends!

Cute little showers popping up to my west--is that the front?
Radar is showing strong rotation near St. Pete Beach area.....
I lost power a few minutes ago and running on back power supply now......
Radar is indacating strong rotation NE of Lutz Florida just north of Tampa
Having trouble saturating the atmos. and staying warmer longer than expected here in nc. Sounds like the sos as the "big one"s back in Ohio.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CST MON JAN 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 200414Z - 200515Z

LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL...PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY
27 THROUGH 06Z OR SO.

VIGOROUS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
THIS EVE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/ISOLD
TSTMS. SFC ANALYSES DEPICTS A TONGUE OF 55-61 DEG F ADVECTING ONTO
THE WCNTRL CST OF FL FROM FORT MYERS NWD TO TAMPA AND WINTER HAVEN
AHEAD OF THE STORMS...RESULTING IN A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MUCAPE.
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A LINE OF CONVECTION INTO CNTRL FL DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOA 45KTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WCNTRL/SWRN CST OF FL WHERE CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY
ORGANIZE AND GIVE LCL DMGG WIND GUSTS. EVEN HERE THOUGH...FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL BE A COUPLE HUNDRED
METERS OFF THE SFC. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ELEVATED...WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
BRIEF TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 01/20/2009
No big deal.
Just some possible rotation.

I have on radar a possible vortex near Sarasota Fl........
Looks like this storm may putz out.....
370. emguy
Quoting largeeyes:
Looks like this storm may putz out.....


How is that? Which storm are you referencing? At this point, it depends on where you are at. Looks to me like the current weather in Florida through the Carolina's is a shortwave gyrating around the Main Low pressure system...that is about to bring much colder air to the south.

Shortwave

Looking up around Missou, there is another train coming through. The current one moving through FL and the Carolina's was about there this time yesterday, this one looks to be on the same schedule.

Should it get cold enough, and should enough moisture be around (It the form of Light Precip), Flurries are definately possible in immediate West Central Florida. If the air is drier, or the moisture is too great (I.E Moderate Precip), or...the timing is off. No Dice.

My call, light sprinkles from Henando through Collier in Florida. Some wintry mix, with the greatest chance of very isolated snow flurries from Lee County North. Sleet a fair bet. Anything east of I-75 seems to be out of the question as the air will be drier inland. It may flurry 1,000 feet above your head in Lakeland or Orlando, but it will evaporate before you know it (Verga Flurry).
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ELEVEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ERIC (06-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion January 20 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (997 hPa) located at 22.8S 49.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 24.5S 48.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 27.2S 49.0E - 30 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
48 HRS: 32.3S 54.5E - (Extratropical)
72 HRS: 35.1S 60.0E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
The residual vortex of Eric is exposed to the southwest of the residual convection undergoing significant ventilation mostly due to the upper outflow coming from Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele, whose distance is less than 750 kms to the west. Moderate Tropical Storm Eric goes on moving round the low and mid-level subtropical ridge present eastwar and will withdraw from the tropical domain beyond 24 hour range while accelerating and recurving gradually southeastward within a highly sheared environment. Extratropical transition may however allow to re-deepen despite its small circulation and its prior partial filling up.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINE
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE FANELE (07-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion January 20 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele (935 hPa) located at 20.5S 42.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM from the center extending up to 180 in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.1S 43.3E - 110 knots (Intense Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.1S 44.5E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
48 HRS: 23.6S 48.1E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
72 HRS: 25.6S 50.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Cyclone Fanele has rapidly intensified undergoing very favorable environmental conditions under the upper level ridge with a good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one, related to the rebuilding high pressures in the southwest. Most of the available NWP models shows an eastern turn towards the west coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both track and speed. However a landfall is expected up to 18 hours south to the Morondave/Morombe area. The system is expected to cross Malagasy island and exit over seas up to 48 hours forecast within favorable environment.


Cyclone Warning


Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele (CATEGORY 4 - MFR (Meteo France) Scale)
20/0830 UTC 20.4S 42.4E T6.0/6.0 FANELE -- Southwest Indian
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JAN 2009 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 20:24:46 S Lon : 42:21:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.6mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.1 6.5 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Morning all
It is starting out to be a bad weather day in Coastal Carolina.
Temp is 41 with a cold rain
Forecast to soon drop into the low 30s and snow!
By nightfall accumulation should be 1 to 2 inches, UGH
I'm putting on a rain suit and walking before the snow!
Today is a day for Tax Returns!!!LOL
Waking to 57 Degrees in SWFLMonday morning, raging ocean - I can hear the waves alll the way to my house & a very strong wind,

SWFL Surf A long fetch across the gulf will setup and provide some choppy cold front surf to start the week. Chest high on Tuesday. A good chance for cold clean leftovers Wednesday morning. Waist high swell with NNE winds and temps in the low to mid 40's by then. Keep in mind it's gonna be cold the whole time and your gonna want your full-suit, booties, hot water, whatever you got to warm you up. Have a good week. Today looks choppy chunky and cold, find some blockage, should be good size, just cold and windy.

Got an hour of surf in yesterday - tempss. not too bad...but the rip tide current was intense. Felt like a flea getting sucked down a drain.

Pretty fierce looking cyclone. Good luck to those in Madagascar.

Advisories have been issued for heavy rain and gales for for Thursday, in anticipation of the next system.

Doesn't seem as strong as earlier predicted, with the stronger low moving off towards Iceland.
I hear you MissNadia - inside seat work this morning -- but still have to work the horses out at the polo barn --no matter wind or rain......

Sorry to hear the word snow is in your forecast... it best stay out of mine. DAwn just breaking here -- winds kicking up...
I'm scanning back through the blogs..... this snow concept in SWFL ... a possibility -- O Heck noooooo. Might be interesting to surf in flurries....... should be a hoot with the horses...... they have never seen snow..... nor my Youngbuck for that matter. I just want to hibernate........

If Orca puts the heater in the rehab. pool for Glitter.... I may join her.
29*F in Macon this morning, no snow.
Very intense Fanele



cant forget where president obama is from. hawaii. he will be cold. good luck to him and america
Good morning peoples!



Asian markets tumble on banking woes

Jitters eclipse optimism on Obama's inauguration day; Europe gains


TOKYO - Asian stocks tumbled Tuesday, as a fresh round of jitters about the health of major banks eclipsed any optimism ahead of Barack Obama's inauguration as U.S. president. European markets opened higher following a sell-off the day before.

Positive sentiment from hopes an Obama administration would act aggressively to bolster the faltering American economy faded amid an onslaught of bad news overnight.

Royal Bank of Scotland forecast a 28 billion pound ($41.3 billion) loss for 2008, the British government announced plans for a second banking bailout, and the European Commission said the euro-zone economy will shrink 1.9 percent this year. U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday.
Link
I find it hard to believe Fanele is only at 90 mph and there might be only one more advisory until landfall But I still think it might reach very intense cyclone status
My bad Fanele is now at 135 mph cat 4 very intense cyclone Madagascar is going to get a pounding do they usually get cyclones this strong from this direction
Actually, it is an intense tropical cyclone, with 10-minute winds of 115 mph, not 115 kt.
HWFBura said CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.6mb/117.4kt

117.4kt=135mph but he could be wrong
going by appearance it's a 135mph cat 4 and advisories are sometimes show lower wind speeds than actual especially in other oceans like hurricane Dean last year was a cat 5 south of Hispaniola but the advisories when I was tracking it said 150mph
I have seen snow twice here in SWFL. The first time was in the late 80's, heavy flurries, melting before they hit the ground and a few years ago it was 33 and a mix of light snow/rain. Very rare pretty cool though. Would be neat to see again.
Quoting MissNadia:
Morning all
It is starting out to be a bad weather day in Coastal Carolina.
Temp is 41 with a cold rain
Forecast to soon drop into the low 30s and snow!
By nightfall accumulation should be 1 to 2 inches, UGH
I'm putting on a rain suit and walking before the snow!
Today is a day for Tax Returns!!!LOL


Snow :)
392. P451
Madagascar's twins acting up. Wow these two are close together and very well defined!

Link
Low temperature forecasts have been OFF, in Florida.
Last week we were promised 3 days with lows in the mid-lower 20's in my Florida Zip-Code.In those 3 days it didn't even reach freezing, that would have turned my ginger plants to mush. I didn't cover them since they come back from the roots anyway, but they are fine.
Now we are getting the same forecast, are they serious this time? the national map looks like a capital "H" convention, and we have some wind this time. Is there any insite on why it has been so far off, for so many days and is it likely to be off this time?
Typically this weather forecast has been REALLY Great!
Quoting P451:
Madagascar's twins acting up. Wow these two are close together and very well defined!

Link

Do you know if there is any chance of a Fujiwara effect or is it already in place
395. P451
Quoting leftovers:
cant forget where president obama is from. hawaii. he will be cold. good luck to him and america


The only thing I hope people eventually forget - or stop harping on - is his racial makeup.

Can the man not be president as a man? Does it have to be as a "black man"?

The media is making me sick with this. Let him be Mr. President. Not "black guy to take oath today".

Sickening...
You ARE kidding right? He has lived and worked in Chicago and has been a Jr. Senator for 2 years in Washington DC. Your blood gets thick up there.

4 more HOURS!
Good morning charlottefl.

Snow events in Florida are not as rare as I always thought.

Personally, I have only seen snow in Florida twice...and I'm a native.

Here's a Wikipedia page:


List of snow events in Florida

Quoting P451:


The only thing I hope people eventually forget - or stop harping on - is his racial makeup.

Can the man not be president as a man? Does it have to be as a "black man"?

The media is making me sick with this. Let him be Mr. President. Not "black guy to take oath today".

Sickening...


I have to admit... from this blog and many others I have looked at... I am blown away by the racial prejudice that is still obliviously very rampant in the US.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Low temperature forecasts have been OFF, in Florida.
Last week we were promised 3 days with lows in the mid-lower 20's in my Florida Zip-Code.In those 3 days it didn't even reach freezing, that would have turned my ginger plants to mush. I didn't cover them since they come back from the roots anyway, but they are fine.
Now we are getting the same forecast, are they serious this time? the national map looks like a capital "H" convention, and we have some wind this time. Is there any insite on why it has been so far off, for so many days and is it likely to be off this time?
Typically this weather forecast has been REALLY Great!


It has been off so bad because the skies did not clear and overcast skies keep the heat in without allowing radiation cooling from clear skies...
Quoting TampaSpin:


It has been off so bad because the skies did not clear and overcast skies keep the heat in without allowing radiation cooling from clear skies...


Is it going to snow Tim?
Happy Independence Day, I mean Inauguration Day!

Anywho...36 here in Savannah, cold for this late in the morning. I am jealous of the folks getting snow!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Is it going to snow Tim?


I don't think so.....not enough moisture...
Quoting melwerle:
Happy Independence Day, I mean Inauguration Day!

Anywho...36 here in Savannah, cold for this late in the morning. I am jealous of the folks getting snow!


Mel your chances will improve today i believe as another small front barely pic comes thru...hope you get some.
Quoting melwerle:
Happy Independence Day, I mean Inauguration Day!

Anywho...36 here in Savannah, cold for this late in the morning. I am jealous of the folks getting snow!


I'm jealous of you people that aren't getting snow,its only half way through winter,and I as a snow lover have had enough.
Hoping for it Tampa...that would be really nice...

Ok...back to watching the news - taping it for my kids today as the school is not having it on the tv or the radio...

Link

The apocalyptocane!

-20 and 340mph winds... I don't think so. I gotta love model errors. :D
LOL Cot looks like the UK is about to get blown off the map and freeze to death all at the same time.

Day After Tommorrowesque
the in detail is even funnier from 7mph to 350mph in 1 minute

0:00 2:59 1 c -2 c 0 0.0 mm 100 % 7 mph 8 mph

3:00 5:59 1 c -17 c 0 0.1 mm 98 % 350 mph 420 mph
Quoting Bonedog:
the in detail is even funnier

3:00 5:59 1 c -17 c 0 0.1 mm 98 % 350 mph 420 mph


Not a spot of rain though! :D

'course, that's the GFS 0.1 Imagine a CMC 0.1 version? Considering its tendency to blow up every possible cyclone, it'd probably wanna beat even Neptune's great storm (which packs winds of around 1500mph).
This storm is just really not that impressive. Freezing rain right now, but supposed to move to all snow. But the precip just seems so patchy.
A small shower area produced yesterday in strong City of Havana aeroavalanchas that caused a blackout of more than 6 hours in the municipality of Center Havana. Electrical unloadings were not registered. In the meantime the city waits for this Wednesday the coldest day since the winter began.
Quoting melwerle:
Hoping for it Tampa...that would be really nice...

Ok...back to watching the news - taping it for my kids today as the school is not having it on the tv or the radio...



This is a historic day for our Country. But, he is just a person that will be our next President which we all hope is very successful. He is not a savior! He is a great man with alot of skills that deserves and has earned the opportunity that this great Country promises to all. Let's treat him with respect as a President deserves and hope he does a great job for all. After 12 noon his color makes no difference in his suceess or failure. Time will tell as most Presidents honeymoon ends in 2 years. Lets pray for his success.
Just saw Al Gore emerge from his limousine in DC. Freezing his ass off.
Quoting searcher14:
Just saw Al Gore emerge from his limousine in DC. Freezing his ass off.


Hopefully OBama will use air plugs when around Gore.......LMAO
Hey,Bone,can you whip up a big nor'easter,I'm tired of all these little whimpy storms,that are a lot of work,and not much fun.
Wall Streets Gift to Obama which i fully expected and will now continue to fall for the next month.....

Quoting searcher14:
Just saw Al Gore emerge from his limousine in DC. Freezing his ass off.


Probably wondering under his breath,"the planet has a fever my ass!!!!"
Quoting NEwxguy:


Probably wondering under his breath,"the planet has a fever my ass!!!!"
Very funny!
Morning all! Going to be a chilly one tonight here in Brevard County.
are we back on?
test
what happened to the blogs?????
Were we shut out of the blog during the inaugural for a reason? Just odd timing or due to weather?
How odd-not able to post or view the blog during the inaugural event, must be the weather?
2
test
Where did everybody go?
429. Inyo
Quoting TampaSpin:
Wall Streets Gift to Obama which i fully expected and will now continue to fall for the next month.....



Doesn't this happen during any presidental inauguration due to 'uncertainty'?
Temp has been hovering at 36F all morning, overcast, here in Charleston.
On nexrad, it appears that our sister state to the north is getting considerable amount of winter weather. How goes it y'all


MODIS shot of Fanele




250m resolution - large file**
That was strange!
406-408

Hmmm, does this mean I won't be going to Scotland this summer?? Cotillion, you still there? LOL!

416

Even lower now. Guess the market isn't sharing the euphoria of those in DC...

Quoting TampaSpin:
Wall Streets Gift to Obama which i fully expected and will now continue to fall for the next month.....



...because it wasnt tanking before the inauguration....
Temp has dropped another degree (now 35F), pressure rising, still overcast - Will not make the 40F predicted today.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1137 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

SCZ050-211000-
CHARLESTON-
1137 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY STILL BE ISSUED SHOULD THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWS INCREASE LATER TODAY.

THIS IS A DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS...TV OR YOUR LOCAL NEWS SOURCE FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


Would love to hear from you folks in North Carolina. How goes it?

I am not sure if we are still having problems with the blog - appears that is the case. Hope it is cleared up and folks along the East Coast CONUS check in with their weather conditions
I'm not sure if there are problems now - there were a bit earlier...maybe folks are still watching the tube. who knows.

42 here...usually warms up a bit more in the afternoon than this. Good day to stay inside!
Finally snowing here in New Bern....just now sticking. I'd be surprised if we get more than 1". Those further inland got sig. more.
Broad bands of stratocumulus are forming over the Nature coast at this time. If they can stick around north of the bay until we reach the melting point of 37 degrees, we'll see some flakes mixing in with light rain. But unfortunately, it appears to me now that the moisture should stay just ahead of the snow-appropriate temps. Nonetheless, as the light rain spreads over the area this evening, there will not be enough sunlight left to evaporate the rain and I would expect widespread areas of ice to form tonight.... that is if the winds can die down enough. Just be sure to drive with caution in the morning in anticipation of possible ice on the ground.
A friend was commenting on how much colder she feels today - as opposed to the other day when we looking at the possibility of breaking records for low temps. - The humidity it 71% and the cold does seem to just seep into one's bones.
Quoting melwerle:
...maybe folks are still watching the tube. who knows.
I have turned my little (analog) TV on only 5 times in the last 2 years. This is the first that I have watched it for more than 30 minutes at one time. - Very exciting - Multi-tasking - keeping an eye on the weather as well.
Just heard Sen Kennedy collapsed during the inaugural luncheon - taken out to the hospital.

Kennedy Collapsed

January 20, 2009 2:46 PM Link

Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., who is battling a brain tumor, was taken away from the congressional luncheon in convulsions.

Kennedy was at a table with Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and others, and was taken out of the room. President Barack Obama went out of the room with him, but he is back in the luncheon room now.

Obama just spoke to the luncheon about Kennedy, appearing extremely sober:

"First of all, I know that while I was out of the room, concern was expressed about Teddy," Obama said. "He was there when the Voting Rights Act passed. And, along with John Lewis, was a warrior for justice. And so I would be lying to you if I did not say that right now a part of me is with him. And I think that is true for all of us. This is a joyous time, but it's also a sobering time. And my prayers are with him and his family and Vicki."

There are also reports that Sen. Byrd, D-W.Va., who is very close to Kennedy, was also taken out of the room. Byrd was conscious when he was taken from the room. The two have been friends for a very, very long time.

An ambulance could be seen driving from the U.S. Capitol.

--George Stephanopoulos

I fear my senior senator from my state is in for some very tough times.
It's been snowing in Cape Hatteras all day! People are walking around with their fishing waders on like they're snow pants! We're so unprepared, haha
Quoting Surfbunnyobx:
It's been snowing in Cape Hatteras all day! People are walking around with their fishing waders on like they're snow pants! We're so unprepared, haha


That paints a pretty funny picture,I always enjoy seeing the snow in the south and how people deal with it
Quoting NEwxguy:


That paints a pretty funny picture,I always enjoy seeing the snow in the south and how people deal with it
Generally except for those skiing fanatics, it is not worth taking up the storage space to store winter gear. So we layer it. My trick for cold wet (rain or snow) is this. You need two plastic bread bags. If you notice they are very soft and just the perfect shape to fit over your foot. Put on cotton socks first, then the bag (as far up the leg as it will go), then long wool socks, cram on your shoes - and voila! good as snow shoes.

MODIFIED MEANT FOOT NOT FOOD
Wrappin up here in New Bern. I'd say we got an inch, max. Significantly higher accumulations to our west. Pretty disappointing.
Well darn - I may need to pull out those bread bags

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

SCZ050-210200-
/O.EXB.KCHS.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090121T0400Z/
CHARLESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARLESTON
342 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH
EXPECTED ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED
TO GRASSY SURFACES. THE SNOW MAY HOWEVER BEGIN TO IMPACT
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...MAKING FOR VERY
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL.

CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS.
SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. KEEP A
FLASH LIGHT...FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR CAR IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE
LIKELY...AND MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Generally except for those skiing fanatics, it is not worth taking up the storage space to store winter gear. So we layer it. My trick for cold wet (rain or snow) is this. You need two plastic bread bags. If you notice they are very soft and just the perfect shape to fit over your food. Put on cotton socks first, then the bag (as far up the leg as it will go), then long wool socks, cram on your shoes - and voila! good as snow shoes.



LOL,gotta love human ingenuity
Just checked our weather...slight chance of SNOW. wooo hooooo!
Just felt the breeze from all the private jets 500 in all,taking off from the inauguration.Global temps just went up.Lord Obama ,save us.
Quoting melwerle:
Just checked our weather...slight chance of SNOW. wooo hooooo!
What city?
Link

Slight chance but i'll TAKE it!
Quoting melwerle:
Link

Slight chance but i'll TAKE it!
:)
Well Fanele is a cat 3 what is it with storms in the past year and skipping cat 2 status (not actually skipping but moving through the stage very quickly)like Bertha Omar Ike and Billy.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
"...You need two plastic bread bags."

I grew up in North Dakota and my mom made me do this in my snow boots anyway :) Not just Southerns do that!
SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE:
South Florida Stormwatch
Ugh no chance of snow for the next week I don't like how all of you in Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi, got more snow and chances for snow then we did up in VA that really peeves me
458. GBlet
Don't feel bad all4, we've been missed all season, it really stinks. Moisture keeps riding up to the east of us. All I need is 6+ for a snow day!
459. GBlet
As the days go by, I begin to worry about nader season. I bet we get it hard this year. Seems like the season gets worse with each passing year.
weird difference from JTWC with RMSC with pressure..

Best status from NRL: 100kts 948 MB (T5.5)
Best status from SSD: 115 knots 927 MB (T6.0)
Best status from RSMC: 100kts 927 hPa (T6.0)
Quoting NEwxguy:
Hey,Bone,can you whip up a big nor'easter,I'm tired of all these little whimpy storms,that are a lot of work,and not much fun.
no problem i will whip one up in 7 days from now for ya just let me reposition that weather ray gun from the south to the ne

lol
Quoting GBlet:
Don't feel bad all4, we've been missed all season, it really stinks. Moisture keeps riding up to the east of us. All I need is 6+ for a snow day!

Yes but nature taunts us first the prediction says snow and the day leading up are 15 degrees then the temperature raises to 34 and it rains then the temperature goes down to 15 again it is very annoying
Why do I live in Florida???? Because it's nice and hotttt!!!!!! This cold sucks!!!!! :)
MIMIC is a sobering look at Fanele. The nightmare storm, that forms fairly close to land & intensifies rapidly on the way there. North side of the eye looks horrid.
Quoting severstorm:
just imagine, snow flying around at 100 mph. what next?


this comment was a long time ago, but this has happened... a late season storm made landfall in Maine sometime in the 60s-70s, and it was snowing!!!
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ugh no chance of snow for the next week I don't like how all of you in Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi, got more snow and chances for snow then we did up in VA that really peeves me


hehehe it sure was a fun day 12-11-08 in New Orleans,I hope you get your snow though.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
HWFBura said CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 925.6mb/117.4kt

117.4kt=135mph but he could be wrong
going by appearance it's a 135mph cat 4 and advisories are sometimes show lower wind speeds than actual especially in other oceans like hurricane Dean last year was a cat 5 south of Hispaniola but the advisories when I was tracking it said 150mph


remember, they use 10-min sustained and we use 1-min sustained for measurement...keeping that in mind, it is possible that is both a Cat 3 and a Cat 4 on the SSHS
Quoting biff4ugo:
You ARE kidding right? He has lived and worked in Chicago and has been a Jr. Senator for 2 years in Washington DC. Your blood gets thick up there.

4 more HOURS!


4 yrs. in D.C....fyi
Quoting NEwxguy:


That paints a pretty funny picture,I always enjoy seeing the snow in the south and how people deal with it


they have no idea, do they... (i'm from MI)
Looks like the snow is about over here in Wilmington, NC. It sure was pretty today, but less than I was hoping for.
467. hurristat 12:01 AM GMT on January 21, 2009

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center that has 100 knot is 1 minute sustained winds average.. even so it should actually have read 115 knots instead of 100 knots.
Looking forward to tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s...
Fanele is going through an EWRC
I have a strange feeling that Wednesday will dip down much further then what their advertising Wednesday night here in Orlando. Forecast low is 27F. However, if the high pressure sits directly on to at the right time we could surpass 1977 and 1985! Although conditions are otherwise ripe, there's just one fly in the ointment(make that a camel or something inbetween) concerning frost-The very low dewpoint air tomorrow!
Quoting weatherbro:
I have a strange feeling that Wednesday will dip down much further then what their advertising Wednesday night here in Orlando. Forecast low is 27F. However, if the high pressure sits directly on to at the right time we could surpass 1977 and 1985! Although conditions are otherwise ripe, there's just one fly in the ointment concerning frost-The very low dewpoint air tomorrow!


This cold suck, lol.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Fanele is going through an EWRC

I thought it was making landfall.
By the way, all4hurricanes, your avatar is nice. That's TY Jangmi, right?
did anyone else's avatar just disappear?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-F
9:00 AM FST January 21 2009
======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression Six-F (1006 hPa) located at 13.8E 158.2W is reported as moving slowly. Position GOOD based on infrared/visible imagery with animation, peripheral observations, and latest QUIKSCAT Pass. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Tropical Depression SIX lies embedded in a monsoonal trough under a 250 hPa diffluent region in a moderately sheared environment. Low level circulation center is exposed and lies to the west of the deep convection. TD SIX is expected to remain in this area under an upper ridge axis within the next 12-24 hours before moving into an area of increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Global models (US/UK/GFS] has picked up the system and moves it southwest then south with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD SIX TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWELVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSE FANELE (07-20082009)
4:00 AM Réunion January 21 2009
===========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fanele (927 hPa) located at 20.6S 43.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM from the center extending up to 150 in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.0S 45.1E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
24 HRS: 23.1S 48.1E - 20 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 50.7E - (EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 27.5S 53.0E - (EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
========================
On the last infrared imagery, eye is less well defined and has become cooler. The landfall is forecast in the south of Morondava, in the vicinity of Belo, within the next couple of hours.

The system is expected to quickly cross Madagascar and be back at sea within the next 24 hours, without significantly re-intensifying

Most of the available NWP models are in good agreement with the forecast track, but there is still some spread in speed.
I hate the cold lol

I hate it

However, it will be interesting to see how far it goes down tomorrow.

Windchill could make it feel in the 20s
Quoting dearmas:


This cold suck, lol.


I think it's great! As long as it's not too long. I wonder if Florida's ever had a prolonged cold spell(not the wussy 60's but real cold)?:)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

=======================
12 HRS: 22.0S 45.1E - (DEPRESSION sur terre)
24 HRS: 23.1S 48.1E - 20 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 50.7E - (EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 27.5S 53.0E - (EXTRATROPICAL)



I take it the first 2 terms mean depression over land and tropical depression?

habla espanol?? vive en las filipinas, verdad?
Quoting futuremet:
I hate the cold lol

I hate it

However, it will be interesting to see how far it goes down tomorrow.

Windchill could make it feel in the 20s


oh no, that's my high!!! what will i ever do... jk... i think all you floridians need to come up to Michigan for a good, long winter.
Quoting hurristat:


oh no, that's my high!!! what will i ever do... jk... i think all you floridians need to come up to Michigan for a good, long winter.


Lol, I am from the caribbean, and we do not get weather like this.