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In Eastern Atlantic, Grace Intensifies While Fred Clings to Life

By: Bob Henson 5:07 PM GMT on September 06, 2015

Tropical Storm Grace became the Atlantic’s seventh named storm of the 2015 tropical season on Saturday. Grace’s arrival keeps this year’s pace of named Atlantic storms close to the long-term average: during the period 1966-2009, the average date of formation for the seventh named storm was September 16. With top sustained winds of 45 mph as of 11:00 am EDT Sunday, Grace was moving just north of due west at about 14 mph through the eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde islands. Grace took advantage of the typical nighttime surge in tropical cyclone convection to build a north-south swath of heavy thunderstorms around its center. The convection has ebbed somewhat in intensity over the last few hours, but Grace remains quite well structured in visible satellite imagery, though its convective envelope remains elongated.


Figure 1. An infrared view of Tropical Storm Grace (center) and a significant wave moving into the Atlantic from Africa (far right), taken at 1515 GMT (11:15 am EDT) on Sunday, September 6, 2015. Image credit: UW-CIMMS


Over the next couple of days, Grace will move over sea-surface temperatures of 27-28°C (80-82°F), slightly above average for this time of year. Wind shear will be relatively light beneath a weak upper-level ridge. The National Hurricane Center projects Grace to become a strong tropical storm by late Monday, and I’d put at least 50-50 odds on the likelihood of Grace making it to minimal hurricane status by Monday or Tuesday. Later in the week, as Grace moves west of 40°W, the storm will encounter an intensifying belt of southwesterly upper-level winds extending from the Caribbean into the central Atlantic. Vertical wind shear of more than 40 knots will develop, and Grace is likely to decay significantly as the shear disrupts its circulation and injects dry air into its core. NHC projects Grace to be no more than a minimal tropical storm by Thursday, as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Grace is the fourth storm this year to develop in the deep tropics of the eastern Atlantic--the Cape Verde development region, which can produce some of the longest-lived and most dangerous hurricanes to affect the United States. Getting so many Cape Verde storms this year is a bit surprising given the hostile conditions engendered by this year’s intensifying El Niño event, which is at record strength for early September. As noted by wunderground member Webberweather53, this is the first time that at least four named systems have developed east of latitude 60°W during a strong El Niño event. El Niño is responsible for hurricane-snuffing wind shear that has been at record levels for most of the summer over the Caribbean and nearby waters. It’s no coincidence that this year’s only two Atlantic hurricanes to date, Danny and Fred, both peaked in strength well east of the Lesser Antilles. Although Danny briefly reached Category 3 strength, the Atlantic has seen a total of only about 78 hours of hurricane activity between Danny and Fred. As a result, the Atlantic’s accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE--a measure of the longevity and strength of each year’s tropical cyclones--has reached a mere 20% of the typical end-of-season total. By comparison, the Northeast Pacific has already produced 32% more ACE than a typical season. El Niño typically favors the Northeast Pacific over the Atlantic in tropical cyclone activity.



Figure 2. Disorganized convection associated with Tropical Depression Fred is shown in this enhanced infrared image from the GOES-East satellite at 1615 GMT (12:15 pm EDT) on Sunday, September 6, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Fred refuses to quit
Though it was given a terminal diagnosis days ago, Tropical Depression Fred has shown it isn’t quite ready to leave this mortal coil. Now in its seventh day as a tropical cyclone, Fred’s entire life has unfolded east of longitude 45°W. It became the first hurricane in modern records to pass through the Cape Verde islands, and over the last several days it’s survived in the face of persistent wind shear by generating new convection each time a batch of thunderstorms is sheared away from its center. Downgraded to a tropical depression on Saturday evening, Fred is beginning to interact with an upper-level trough to its northwest and should begin moving more rapidly to the northeast over the next several days, then begin curving back toward the southeast as the trough passes it by. Although the ECMWF model merges Fred with the trough, most other models indicate that Fred will get yet another lease on life over the next several days, as wind shear lessens somewhat. Fred will continue to travel over SSTs that are around 1°C (1.8°F) above average for at least the next five days, so it’s possible Fred could linger as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm throughout this week.

Another healthy wave coming off Africa
African continues to generate an impressive supply of easterly waves that have at least a chance of developing into tropical cyclones as they move into the Atlantic. Our next tropical wave is in the process of moving from West Africa into the Atlantic at a fairly low latitude (see Figure 1 above). SSTs remain unusually high in this region, and I expect we will see this wave emerge into a tropical depression and perhaps become Tropical Storm Henri late this week. Once again, the tendency for high wind shear from the Caribbean northeastward will greatly reduce the odds that any tropical cyclone from the deep Atlantic tropics might approach North America relatively intact.


Figure 3. Sea-surface temperatures (left) and departures from average for this time of year (right), both in degrees C, across the North Atlantic for the week ending on August 29, 2015.

Tropical Storm Linda forms in the Northeast Pacific
Tropical Storm Linda became the latest named system in the Northeast Pacific at 11:00 am EDT Sunday. With winds of 45 mph, Linda is located about 610 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Satellite imagery now shows Linda organizing very quickly, and it has a window of a couple of days where it could attain at least Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches cooler waters and more stable air. Late this week, Linda or its remnants should curve westward before making a run at Baja California. Fortunately, there is no sign at present that Linda will resemble Category 5 Hurricane Linda of 1997. That Linda was the strongest hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific, with top sustained winds of 185 mph. With damage from Linda relatively minor, its name was not retired, but the storm gave a brief scare to southern California. An NHC report notes that some model runs showed a weakening Linda heading toward Baja California or southern California, and special weather statements were issued by the Oxnard, CA, NWS office. (Because lists of hurricane names for the Northeast Pacific and Atlantic are rotated every six years, the same alphabet is being used in 2015 as in 1997--which happens to be the last year that a strong El Niño was in place during the Atlantic/Pacific hurricane season.)


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Linda congeals in the Northeast Pacific, as shown by this infrared image from the GOES-West satellite at 1630 GMT (12:30 pm EDT) on Sunday, September 6, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Elsewhere in the Pacific
Downgraded on Saturday night after more than a week as a hurricane, Tropical Storm Jimena is now feeling the effects of marginal SSTs and southwesterly wind shear as it carries out a gradual cyclonic loop north of Hawaii. Jimena’s top sustained winds are down to 60 mph, and they should continue to decrease today and Monday. The GFDL and HWRF models indicate that Jimena could make a comeback late in the week before recurvature into the midlatitudes, but SSTs would be barely supportive of strengthening. The official NHC forecast puts little stock in any late-week revival scenario for Jimena, weakening it to a post-tropical low by Thursday.

Further west, we still have Typhoon Kilo in the open Northwest Pacific. If we include its stint in the Northeast Pacific, Kilo is now in its ninth day of packing hurricane-force winds and its 18th day classified as a tropical cyclone. The latest outlook from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives Kilo a final surge of strength to Category 3 status later this week as it begins recurving well east of Japan. Kilo may have 6-7 days left to go as a tropical cyclone, which would leave it well short of the longevity record of 31 days set by Hurricane/Typhoon John (1994).

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Welp off to sleep....see what's happnin' tomorrow. Nite all
Quoting 467. yesterway:




Hopefully she goes either north or south of Dominica and brings drought relief to places as Puerto Rico and the Caribbean who need it
Quoting 494. Gearsts:

That is a pretty cyclone.


Amazing outflow, instability and moisture there haha. No lacking of the 3!!
IOD is threatening to sync up with El Nino, which often happens when a Nino event is nearing its peak. This usually reduces rainfall in Australia and South Asia.

TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

A partial ASCAT-B overpass at 2346 UTC, along with several passive
microwave passes, indicates that Grace has a well-developed, compact
low-level circulation that extends upward into the mid-levels of
the cyclone. However, both conventional and microwave imagery also
indicate that the inner-core convection has been significantly
disrupted by the entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western
and southern quadrants of the circulation, and has penetrated into
the cyclone's center. The initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be
generous, is based on Dvorak current intensity estimates of T3.0/45
kt from both TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a 40-kt ASCAT-B
wind vector.

Grace's motion continues to be 280/13 kt. The small tropical cyclone
is expected to move a little north of due west throughout the
forecast period due to moderate low- to mid-level easterly flow on
the south side of a large subtropical ridge located to the north
of Grace. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the
previous advisory track, so the new forecast is just an update and
extension of the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus
model, TVCN.

Grace's fairly robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry
air intrusions for the next 24 hours or so while the vertical wind
shear remains low and, therefore, a return of inner-core deep
convection is expected later tonight. Shortly after that time,
however, the vertical shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF
models to increase to 25-30 kt from a westerly direction and for the
mid-level humidity to decrease to near 40 percent, a combination
that will halt any intensification and induce a steady weakening
trend despite warm SSTs of near 28 deg C beneath the cyclone. The
official intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory
forecast, and is similar to the intensity consensus model, IVCN. It
is worth noting that the GFS and ECMWF models show significant
weakening of the cyclone in 4 to 5 days, with possible dissipation
occurring by 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 13.3N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 13.8N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 14.0N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 14.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 15.3N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 16.1N 56.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 17.2N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH


this been going on for the last few years possible dissipation
occurring by 120 hours
506. flsky
Where??
Quoting 426. FunnelVortex:

The Lightning here is getting crazy. The flashes are so bright and constant it's like every 5-10 seconds night turns to day. Might have to put in earplugs because of the thunder...
Tropical Storm Grace was located about 600 miles west-southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde as of Sunday night.
Grace is forecast to strengthen into a strong tropical storm early this week as it moves toward the west.
As Grace moves into the central Atlantic Ocean and eventually the waters just east of the Lesser Antilles, it's forecast to weaken due to increased wind shear.
In an average year, the seventh Atlantic named storm forms by September 16.
With an environment of wind shear and dry air ahead, the future of Grace is somewhat uncertain. On Sunday night, deep convection (shower and thunderstorm activity) remains limited but additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so and Grace could be a strong tropical storm early this week.

By midweek, it seems likely that Grace will start to weaken and perhaps could become a remnant low before reaching the Lesser Antilles late in the week. Grace is still more than five days away from the islands and poses no threat for the time-being.
Quoting 506. flsky:

Where??



Funnel is in Wisconsin.
everyone keeps posting models almost two weeks from now. the peak of the current is now. grace is a little storm acc/ to nhc. i dont expect much about the same as danny. rest of the season? downhill pretty soon.
how bad is it? atm fred cruising the mid latitudes is doing better than grace mdr
Grace ain't great. Yesterday morning I thought Grace would reach hurricane status for a little while today. I don't think so anymore.
Quoting 512. islander101010:

everyone keeps posting models almost two weeks from now. the peak of the current is now. grace is a little storm acc/ to nhc. i dont expect much about the same as danny. rest of the season? downhill pretty soon.
AGREED
someone said back in june that shear and sal would crush the 2015 season .........
half way got 7 storms its looking like a 9-11 yr
Quoting 512. islander101010:

everyone keeps posting models almost two weeks from now. the peak of the current is now. grace is a little storm acc/ to nhc. i dont expect much about the same as danny. rest of the season? downhill pretty soon.

Way to jump to conclusions, the MDR looks pretty active for the next couple of weeks. Did you not see the ECMWF? The MDR was suppose to be shut down? The fact we are already up to 7 storms is pretty remarkable when you think how bad the conditions are.
The GFDL keeps Grace a strong storm but....I don't believe it.

Labor Day wash out on the west coast
Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR models are showing an intense low forming overnight off Tampa with 50knt winds. Might be a surprise system developing right under our noses tonight.


So, any signs of 50 knot winds? An intense low? Flooding rains?
Considering the actual ragged form of Grace I consider she will die in a short to medium term. She is sick, and instead of medicine is receiving poison (dust, shear which contraposition to the favored water temperatures . Also, this system is small size. She has been the worst fighter of the CV cyclones to date this year. She could be just a TD right now, if so.
Pattern Change to Bring Heat Relief to Midwest, Plains, East
By Chris Dolce Published Sep 7 2015 07:37 AM EDT

fal coming soon
Cooling Down in the Midwest, Plains and East

The cooler air will come in two waves this week.

Through Wednesday, an initial cold front will drop temperatures to near or even below average across much of the Plains and Midwest. That cold front will also bring rain and thunderstorms to those regions.

(MORE: Severe Storms, Flash Flooding Possible)

During the second half of the week, another surge of cool air will move into the aforementioned regions as an area of high pressure dives south from Canada. Parts of the Upper Midwest, Plains and Great Lakes may see highs 5-15 degrees below average by Friday. The cooler air will take the longest to reach the East Coast, perhaps not until late week.

Here are a few examples of the temperature changes we will see this week. In general, most of these cities have been above average to start September, but can expect near or even below-average temperatures in the week ahead.

Chicago: Sunday was the sixth straight day with highs in the upper 80s or low 90s. Cooler air arrives Tuesday-Thursday with highs in the 70s, and then possibly not getting out of the 60s Friday into next Saturday. Lows in the 50s will arrive Thursday and continue through the weekend.
Detroit and Cincinnati: Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast to continue through Tuesday. Expect highs in the 70s beginning Wednesday or Thursday into next weekend. 60s are possible in Detroit on Saturday. Lows in the 50s or low 60s are expected late in the week.
Oklahoma City: Highs in the middle or upper 90s continue through Tuesday, then dropping into the 80s starting Wednesday. Lows may dive into the low 60s late in the week.
St. Louis: Highs in the 90s through Tuesday will give way to 80s on Wednesday, and possibly 70s by Friday or Saturday. Lows may drop into the low 60s or upper 50s late in the week.
Northeast Region: As mentioned before, the cooler air will take the longest to reach the East Coast. Above-average warmth will persist through Thursday in parts of the region, with several daily record highs threatened Tuesday. Some heat relief will potentially arrive Friday into next weekend.


here come fall in a big way soon!
*hype increases*

GEOS-5 had just a nice sheared blob in the Gulf of Mexico til this last run. Now it briefly spins up a storm later today. Then takes it into North Florida, between Tallahassee and Lake City overnight. CMC shows a little more west. It really looked almost too short lived to be classified if it did happen.
530. MahFL
Quoting 516. leftrighty:

someone said back in june that shear and sal would crush the 2015 season .........


So far it has not been a normal El Nino, they are not all exactly the same.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - AN UPPER LOW CENTERED ALONG THE GA/FL STATE LINE SPRAWLED
ACROSS FL AND MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGED IN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHILE A WEAK
TROUGH WAS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW TAKES A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND ARRIVES SOUTH OF LA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AS IT BECOMES A WEAK CLOSED
LOW...REACHING CAPE SAN BLAS WATERS TONIGHT. ON TUE THE LOW OPENS
BACK INTO A TROUGH AND SLIDES WEST AS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
EXPANDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO FL. THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE GENERALLY MOVING AWAY...WILL
MAINTAIN A DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN AROUND
2 INCHES AND ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TODAY BUT THESE WARM SLIGHTLY TUE AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY.

CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING ON THE GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRUSHING ONTO
COAST LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...THEN SPREADING INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE. WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
ROBUST AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY TODAY.
LOW LEVEL EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND
TUE... WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT NEAR THE COAST DURING AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES RUN NEAR NORMAL.

Good morning all. Looking at the tone of the board this AM, and mostly I see people saying this season isn't a bust. I guess if you base it on the number of storms you would be correct.. And yes, in a normal year, it looks like Florida and the gulf coast would have been hammered like 04 and 05. The reality is that we are in untested territory. With the global rise in temperatures, and a record El Niño, there are too many unknown variables to wish/hope for a huge, intense hurricane this year. Get out the frying pan and thaw out the crow, because I may have to eat it, but, general knowledge of TC's tells us that it takes almost a perfect set of conditions to create a monster storm. There is plenty of heat out there, but the persistence of dry air over the past few seasons has allowed very few storms to build a deep core, and sufficient circulation needed to cross the ocean and get to the Antilles. And the real turd in the punch bowl is adverse upper winds over the Atlantic breeding grounds, which at height, have deprived developing systems of the vertical stability needed, courtesy of El Niño. I suspect that also speaks to the possibility of any homegrown development, especially in the  Bay of Campeche or the GOM.
Again I say you can look at any obscure model, and funktop and rainbow satellite shots until you see what you want to see. I think the Brilliant men and women at NHC have access to all of the input we do. They, however, are better at forecasting than anyone here, and protocol does not allow them to use anything other than the facts in presenting their forecast. People like Richard Pasch, Stacy Stewart, and Lixion Avila and Rick Knabb, among many other long time forecasters could probably match the models in accuracy, if allowed to follow their instinct and knowledge of the nature of storms. Add to that all of the data garnered by the research division, and hundreds of dedicated scientists around the world, and not one will say they know whether we are looking at an anomalous period, or the future. While computer modeling will get better going forward, it too, will remain fallible for the foreseeable future, and prone to forecast failures.
So let's have at it insofar as dueling theories about anything tropical, and any development in the tropics, but lay off the fine people at NHC. They are smart enough to never really make an absolute statement. There is too much at stake. 
euro.low.991mb?
Quoting 530. MahFL:



So far it has not been a normal El Nino, they are not all exactly the same.

It's safe to assume that strange and unpredictable is the new 'normal'.
We've never been here before......,.
Quoting 521. Sfloridacat5:

Labor Day wash out on the west coast

Best rain Naples has had in over a month.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Quoting 522. sar2401:

Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:

HRRR models are showing an intense low forming overnight off Tampa with 50knt winds. Might be a surprise system developing right under our noses tonight.


So, any signs of 50 knot winds? An intense low? Flooding rains?



Lol....
Quoting 521. Sfloridacat5:

Labor Day wash out on the west coast

A direct hit to Tampa,but painfully is not a cat5.
I just took this picture of the line moving into my area just S.E. of Fort Myers.
542. JRRP

Quoting 541. Sfloridacat5:

I just took this picture of the line moving into my area just S.E. of Fort Myers.



I am going to watch the Gulf carefully, the next few days. There should be a pressure drop in the western Gulf this week as well.
from the NWS New Orleans/Slidell NWS disco'


Long term...
the upper low then opens up and is absorbed by a broad expansive
upper trough that will take up the entire Continental U.S. By the end of the
week. A cold front will move relatively close to the region by
the end of the week as well. Models continue to back off on
bringing this front through the area over the weekend and instead
are trying to develop an interesting hybrid type system along the
tail end of the front over the West Coast of the Gulf. This is the
first time this scenario is showing up in model solutions and we
would like to see this pattern continue in subsequent runs before
putting too much weight behind it. But it is that time of year so
will need to watch how this begins to evolve.
This is a picture of the front yard I took this morning. Given our lack of rain, I thought xeriscaping would be a good idea...

.
Quoting 540. prcane4you:

A direct hit to Tampa,but painfully is not a cat5.


Just a bunch of light rain. Winds are dead calm.
Quoting 545. sar2401:

This is a picture of the front yard I took this morning. Given our lack of rain, I thought xeriscaping would be a good idea...




have u thought about some sod?
GFS showing a wet Western Gulf..And amazing how fast the temps can change here. Low temps may drop a full 30 degress in two weeks


Quoting 545. sar2401:

This is a picture of the front yard I took this morning. Given our lack of rain, I thought xeriscaping would be a good idea...


looks like Mars without the iron oxide.
Quoting 549. hydrus:

GFS showing a wet Western Gulf..And amazing how fast the temps can change here. Low temps may drop a full 30 degress in two weeks





The 70's in Tampa in September? I will believe when I see it.
Euro showing a Humberto type system affecting Texas...If the model sticks to this run, we may have something.
Quoting 551. SunnyDaysFla:



The 70's in Tampa in September? I will believe when I see it.
Too far out, but this pattern would help it happen..its wait and see.
Yeesh...

There are some signs that later in the week we should watch the western GOM.
Quoting 554. JrWeathermanFL:

Yeesh...




Looks to be on life support this morning.
Well so much for sleeping in a little lol. Woke up to rolling thunder here in SW Florida,
and a ton of lightning. Quite stormy. Got this pic out front (jokes)
Good Morning... ASCAT @1148Z ~50mph max.



Quoting 556. Bucsboltsfan:



Looks to be on life support this morning.


Yep. COC about to pop out from under the convection.
Euro still putting a storm into texas,run after run now.......................

Looks weak. Wave in front of it went poof.

winds..
Quoting 551. SunnyDaysFla:



The 70's in Tampa in September? I will believe when I see it.


That's at 2 am.
open wave?

Quoting 560. LargoFl:

Euro still putting a storm into texas,run after run now.......................


I would love the rain, but with the way gas prices have plummeted, I'm sure it wouldn't take much to cause them to skyrocket overnight.
looks like are storm has peaked

AL, 07, 2015090712, , BEST, 0, 136N, 351W, 40, 1004, TS
Quoting 563. Tazmanian:

open wave?

It looks like it couldn't sustain the 200 mph forward speed.
Quoting 551. SunnyDaysFla:



The 70's in Tampa in September? I will believe when I see it.

Naples conditions now
73.8 F
Feels Like 72 F

Tampa

76.6 F
Feels Like 77 F

Check out the Gulf in this loop,,,
Link

El Nino-3
Tropical Systems-0
Quoting 554. JrWeathermanFL:

Yeesh...




almost dead
570. MahFL
As forecast 25kts of shear on Grace:

571. JRRP
Quoting 568. scCane:

El Nino-3
Tropical Systems-0


Only 3?
573. JRRP
Quoting 571. JRRP:




In La-la land lol.

But I hope it's right :)
To all the " pro mets or have great knowledge on the weather" what are your thoughts on grace? Could this thing form back in the Bahamas. Considering the models said shear will be low now & it's not.. What are your thoughts on future shear totals near the Antilles?
Quoting 570. MahFL:

As forecast 25kts of shear on Grace:




Where's WKC? He said he wasn't buying the increased shear?
Quoting 548. K8eCane:



have u thought about some sod?
My understanding is that sod needs water to grow. The last thing I want to do is add any more to my current drag the hose around the yard workload. There's supposedly a chance for rain later tonight and tomorrow if this low will stop pestering Florida and move north. I've heard that before. :-)
Quoting 576. WeatherLover213:

To all the " pro mets or have great knowledge on the weather" what are your thoughts on grace? Could this thing form back in the Bahamas. Considering the models said shear will be low now & it's not.. What are your thoughts on future shear totals near the Antilles?

Pro discussion:
"The shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt
by late Tuesday, and weakening is expected to begin by that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the LGEM model and the
intensity consensus. Given the strong southwesterly upper-level
winds expected near the eastern Caribbean late in the period, it is
quite possible that Grace will degenerate to a tropical wave
before it reaches the Lesser Antilles."
Link Click Discussion at top.
Quoting 568. scCane:

El Nino-3
Tropical Systems-0

1. TS Ana
2. TS Bill
3. TS Claudette
4. HC Danny
5. TS Erika
6. HC Fred
7. TS Grace

Um... how did you get 3 out of 7. Please explain?
Grace isn't so graceful lol
Fresh ASCAT of Grace..
Quoting 576. WeatherLover213:

To all the " pro mets or have great knowledge on the weather" what are your thoughts on grace? Could this thing form back in the Bahamas. Considering the models said shear will be low now & it's not.. What are your thoughts on future shear totals near the Antilles?
Considering that "pro" and amateur alike didn't do very well on the previous two storms, there's a good chance that, especially this far out, we won't do well with this one either. If we're lucky, we might have a better idea 48 hours ahead.
This non-blob in the Gulf is messing up my swimming pool plans for today.
Quoting 585. flbeachgirl:

This non-blob in the Gulf is messing up my swimming pool plans for today.

Welp it'll have to be singin' in the rain ; ) Yes is rainy. I woke to Thunder.
587. JRRP
INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
Quoting 549. hydrus:

GFS showing a wet Western Gulf..And amazing how fast the temps can change here. Low temps may drop a full 30 degress in two weeks





Neither the GFS or Euro are picking up on the gulf disturbance. It's mostly mid and upper rotation. However, with diffluent flow right in the region of mid level spin, we can't rule out surface low development in this region today into tomorrow.

Whatever the case, this system is more rain potent than model guidance showed, and is.
Quoting 581. AussieStorm:


1. TS Ana
2. TS Bill
3. TS Claudette
4. HC Danny
5. TS Erika
6. HC Fred
7. TS Grace

Um... how did you get 3 out of 7. Please explain?


Ana and Bill made landfall, Claudette raced out to sea. Fred was killed outside of the MDR. Erika, Grace, and Danny were/are being killed by shear caused by El Nino

Full state Radar:Link
Quoting 589. JrWeathermanFL:



Ana and Bill made landfall, Claudette raced out to sea. Fred was killed outside of the MDR. Erika, Grace, and Danny were/are being killed by shear caused by El Nino


at least I think that's what they're referring to
Quoting 588. Jedkins01:



Neither the GFS or Euro are picking up on the gulf disturbance. It's mostly mid and upper rotation. However, with diffluent flow right in the region of mid level spin, we can't rule out surface low development in this region today into tomorrow.

Whatever the case, this system is more rain potent than model guidance showed, and is.


looking at the radar, most of the rain is now north and west of Tampa/St Pete. Do you think any more rain will come through the area today? There should not be too much in terms of heating today, eliminating most of the pop up storms we normally get.
Quoting 589. JrWeathermanFL:



Ana and Bill made landfall, Claudette raced out to sea. Fred was killed outside of the MDR. Erika, Grace, and Danny were/are being killed by shear caused by El Nino


So wouldnt that be

Tropical Systems - 4
El Nino - 3

Or are we only counting the systems killed by El Nino and not giving credit to the ones that did not so we can drive the point home about how "disappointing" this season has been? The season that is battling a record El Nino and yet is ahead of climatology in terms of named storms.
Quoting 593. Hurricanes101:



So wouldnt that be

Tropical Systems - 4
El Nino - 3


I mean the fact that Danny, Erika, Fred, and Grace even formed where they all did in this year, I consider them all winners :P
Quoting 594. JrWeathermanFL:



I mean the fact that Danny, Erika, Fred, and Grace even formed where they all did in this year, I consider them all winners :P


I think Ana and Bill were winners too lol

Quoting 595. Hurricanes101:



I think Ana and Bill were winners too lol




So every system other than Claudette.

She's a loser
Peak season...

INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 15.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.3N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Can't rember this many lows /troughs parked over EGomx during a summer without any development..... Eventually something will have to stick if u keeping throwing it @ the wall. Meanwhile the wet,lush,green, subtropical climate of west Florida is doing what it's done for last two months Saturating.
Quoting 554. JrWeathermanFL:

Yeesh...




Looking mighty sad indeed.
Quoting 551. SunnyDaysFla:



The 70's in Tampa in September? I will believe when I see it.


The temps are valid at 6z. It's 2 AM. Nothing unusual.
602. JRRP
New little convective blip where I think the center should be off of Tampa.

New advisory nothing much changed Grace has weakened slightly down to 45 from 50 not surprised due to a spot of shear from the N however shear is lower further W from 45/50W to 65/68W

Also new forecast cone has shifted W 5 day plot now S of PR

I think we will see Grace restrengthen within that area
I think Grace might get up to 60-65mph
I think Grace will travel along the S part of the cone
Quoting 581. AussieStorm:


1. TS Ana
2. TS Bill
3. TS Claudette
4. HC Danny
5. TS Erika
6. HC Fred
7. TS Grace

Um... how did you get 3 out of 7. Please explain?

Twas a joke.

Erika Danny and
Quoting 589. JrWeathermanFL:



Ana and Bill made landfall, Claudette raced out to sea. Fred was killed outside of the MDR. Erika, Grace, and Danny were/are being killed by shear caused by El Nino

Pretty much this but it was a joke in the first place not exactly entirely serious.
Broad surface low pressure embedded within an inverted trough. Light west winds to the south and light east winds to the north.

Quoting 577. Bucsboltsfan:



Where's WKC? He said he wasn't buying the increased shear?


I was expecting shear in the East-central Atlantic
I'm expected shear to be lower in the central-West Atlantic and into the E Caribbean
East Coast Seabreeze opened up on top of me today in Melbourne. Not much lightning yet. It's more tropical downpour. The rain isn't all that cold. Went from 94 to pouring quick. It's headed north.
Quoting 607. wunderkidcayman:



I was expecting shear in the East-central Atlantic
I'm expected shear to be lower in the central-West Atlantic and into the E Caribbean


Nah
610. beell
Ah, the gentle upper-level winds of late summer caressing the Gulf of Mexico.


09/07 06Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-valid Tuesday, 06Z

Don't see many troughs that sharply amplified in a model.
I'm going to break the trend here and say something largely unheard of on this blog:
Grace will likely follow a similar pattern as Danny and Erika and fall apart. While the storm will probably intensify a little in the short term, realistically, it'll lose all it gains and then further degrade into a tropical low again. And you know what? That's just fine. ;-)
Quoting 609. Bucsboltsfan:



Nah


Nah
Well we will see durning the next few days

Quoting 604. wunderkidcayman:

New advisory nothing much changed Grace has weakened slightly down to 45 from 50 not surprised due to a spot of shear from the N however shear is lower further W from 45/50W to 65/68W

Also new forecast cone has shifted W 5 day plot now S of PR

I think we will see Grace restrengthen within that area
I think Grace might get up to 60-65mph
I think Grace will travel along the S part of the cone


Aside from wishcasting, why do you think Grace will strengthen that much and travel along the south part of the cone when the experts show no strengthing and degenerating? Do you have model support? Please share. Thx
614. beell
A general outline attempt of the synoptics related to the potential for rain and/or a tropical system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A week out. Standard Disclaimer applies...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015/

BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6 HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"! BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT) THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED.

The current mid-upper low over the north central gulf should begin to loosely phase with broad northern stream troughing on Tuesday/Wednesday and open up into a weak trough as the base slowly retrogrades west towards north central Mexico.

This should place the eastern edge of any lower level surface trough reflection pinned fairly close to deep south TX/northeast MX coast. Perhaps a negative for tropical development. Not much sea-room.

A northern stream shortwave is progged to drag a cold front through TX next weekend. If this were all to come together perfectly, a coastal trough attaching to the tail of a front (a prime location for a surface low) underneath diffluent upper winds associated with the upper low to the west of TX could drop some healthy rainfall.
HEAR YE ! HEAR YE !!!

It's Raining !

Thanks, Keeper !!!!
I'm not sure that Grace will last all of Tuesday. I think by then, the shear and dry air should have finished it. It seems like I'm saying RIP, but I'm not. However, we can see on satellite a band of shear, lots of dry air, and, maybe even worse, it looks like a stable environment. That's indicated by (what I think is stratocumulus like clouds) in front of Grace. Tell me if what I'm seeing is wrong if it is, though.
Nothing like hitting a good gym PR early in the morning. Anyways....first year on here, and I was wondering, do you all discuss winter weather also?
Only a 40% chance of rain in South Florida. Better double that.
Quoting 594. JrWeathermanFL:



I mean the fact that Danny, Erika, Fred, and Grace even formed where they all did in this year, I consider them all winners :P
Since I'm bored waiting for Florida to let go of the rain so it can start to move my direction, I thought I'd look at the storm totals for the four very strong El Nino's (first four years in the list) and the six years of the last strong El Nino's (last six years on the list).

1998 - 14/10/3
1997 - 8/3/1
1983 - 4/3/1
1982 - 6/2/1
1973 - 8/4/1
1972 - 7/3/0
1966 - 11/7/3
1965 - 6/4/1
1958 - 10/7/5
1957 - 8/3/2

Average year - 10.1/5.9/2.5

And 2015 so far - 7/2/1

Yes, I know in some years, the El Nino was weakening and others it was getting stronger, so don't get all technical on me, but many years we were either near or above average in numbers of storms. Even through the last "super El Nino" years, we averaged closer to normal than not, with 1998 being above normal. 1982/83 and 1965 were our lowest numbers, and 1972 was the only season without a major, while 1958 was really pumping out the numbers for both hurricanes and majors. The only real bust year was 1972. My point is that storm production in strong to very strong El Nino years is not as predictable as some may think, and the idea the MDR would be shut down doesn't really square with the facts.

Disclaimer : I used due diligence when compiling these numbers, but it's possible I could have just made some of these numbers up, depending on how tired I am. It's up to you to figure that out. :-0
Tomorrow I have to drive across the Glades from Sarasota to Hollywood. What are the chances all this rain will have cleared out for my drive? I hate driving in the rain.
Quoting 617. TeleConnectSnow:

Nothing like hitting a good gym PR early in the morning. Anyways....first year on here, and I was wondering, do you all discuss winter weather also?


Oh yes. And if you live in Florida we'll hear plenty.
Quoting 617. TeleConnectSnow:

Nothing like hitting a good gym PR early in the morning. Anyways....first year on here, and I was wondering, do you all discuss winter weather also?
es, we discuss all kinds of weather. The northerners tend to take over from the Floridians when winter comes, but otherwise it's about the same.
Alright thanks guys
Quoting 620. flbeachgirl:

Tomorrow I have to drive across the Glades from Sarasota to Hollywood. What are the chances all this rain will have cleared out for my drive? I hate driving in the rain.
It's supposed to move north to the Panhandle and (I hope) Alabama by tomorrow afternoon, so you should see improving weather...probably.
TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015

Grace's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat this morning, with
the deep convection becoming fragmented and banding features less
evident than they were yesterday. The initial intensity is
adjusted downward to 40 kt in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass, and in line with the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from SAB and TAFB. An upper-level trough to the northwest
of the tropical cyclone is producing some west-southwesterly
vertical shear on Grace. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear
will increase over the next several days, which should inhibit
strengthening. The official intensity forecast calls for little
change in strength during the next couple of days followed by
gradual weakening. Grace is expected to degenerate into a remnant
low by the end of the forecast period. This is similar to the
intensity model consensus, IVCN, but given the current state of the
system, Grace could weaken faster than indicated here.

The storm is moving a little more quickly toward the west this
morning, and the motion estimate is 275/15 kt. For the next several
days, Grace will continue to be steered by the low- to mid-level
flow to the south of the subtropical ridge. The GFS and ECMWF
global models show a rather brisk westward motion, perhaps partially
because the system opens up into a wave in the model predictions.
The official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and
close to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 15.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.3N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Quoting 622. sar2401:

es, we discuss all kinds of weather. The northerners tend to take over from the Floridians when winter comes, but otherwise it's about the same.


Don't forget the severe weather and tornadoes for central Florida
Grace is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. this been happern to much for the last three years with tropical storms
Grace at the moment looks rather anaemic. there lies the possibility of a weak system or an open wave tracking west.There is a lot of ocean real estate between the present position of Grace and the lesser antilles. Grace if it were to weaken will travel with the easterly flow mentaining a west track into the caribbean. Should the storm weaken to the adverse conditions at the moment ,there is still time to get it's act together before reaching the island chain.
Quoting 627. hurricanes2018:

Grace is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. this been happern to much for the last three years with tropical storms


Yep. Dry stable sinking air for 3 years and extra wind shear from El Niño this year has been storm killers.
The latest ECMWF run shows a strong and well-defined tropical-like cyclone over South Italy on Thursday (from left to right, up to down: surface pressure, temperature of 850 hPa, wind of 10 m - maximum around 25 m/s, precipitation of the last 3 hours - yellowish colours are over 70 mm):



The MeteoCenter WRF also shows it, a bit further south (central pressure around 990 hPa, deep warm core at 850 hPa, maximum winds around 25 m/s, maximum 3-hourly precipitation above 80 mm):



The 6Z run of the GFS as showed this too (but weaker), however the fresh 12Z run doesn't.

Quoting 624. sar2401:

It's supposed to move north to the Panhandle and (I hope) Alabama by tomorrow afternoon, so you should see improving weather...probably.

Thanks Sar. I've got to be in Hollywood by 3pm, so I guess I'll leave a little earlier than I'd planned in case the rain is sticking around in the late morning/early afternoon.
Quoting 628. stoormfury:

Grace at the moment looks rather anaemic. there lies the possibility of a weak system or an open wave tracking west.There is a lot of ocean real estate between the present position of Grace and the lesser antilles. Grace if it were to weaken will travel with the easterly flow mentaining a west track into the caribbean. Should the storm weaken to the adverse conditions at the moment ,there is still time to get it's act together before reaching the island chain.

all the tropical storm in the last thre years go to a tropical wave ones it hit lesser antilles or into the caribbean
635. JRRP
Quoting 574. Starhopper:



Seems like Fred is 'healthier' than Grace.



wind shear starting to hit Tropical Storm GRACE
638. beell
Quoting 630. hurricanes2018:




NHC going with what they know!

Dry air and wind shear acting on a poorly organized system will result in dissipation.

Ship it!
So Grace is a crapshoot...

"...NEXT!"
Quoting 624. sar2401:

It's supposed to move north to the Panhandle and (I hope) Alabama by tomorrow afternoon, so you should see improving weather...probably.


Sar, I remember when you were cursed with 116o heat indices through June.. Centex has been unbearable too for 12 weeks of not even a trace of rain or clouds. Our Ridge is finally moving W and dying today.. but this is our last day - I live at the lake in an extremely subsidence-prone channeling 'plain' - with 108+ feels like. Might even see highs only in the upper 80s this week, and the discussion is hinting at GOM homegrown. Better hurry up, as TX drops out of tropical scene Oct 1.
Quoting 638. beell: Houston hint at tropical, here's Austin's hint:

Things get peculiar with the model output for Sunday and just
beyond the current forecast period. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are in
pretty good agreement that a coastal trough will develop off the
coast of south Texas/Mexico sometime around Sunday morning with
this area of increased moisture moving northeast into the middle
Texas coast beginning on Monday. Still a lot of time to assess
any possible tropical development from this system...but overall
odds would remain low.

&&
Quoting 613. Bucsboltsfan:



Aside from wishcasting, why do you think Grace will strengthen that much and travel along the south part of the cone when the experts show no strengthing and degenerating? Do you have model support? Please share. Thx


WKC?
The latest GFS run shows another storm impacting the Cape Verdes, as well as a suspicious low just hanging out in the BOC



I think we need to keep an eye on the Gulf, especially since the GFS shows pressures falling in that area.
Quoting 643. FunnelVortex:

The latest GFS run shows another storm impacting the Cape Verdes, as well as a suspicious low just hanging out in the BOC




I do think a storm developing in the BOC/W Gulf is a possibility by this time next week
Quoting 644. Hurricanes101:



I do think a storm developing in the BOC/W Gulf is a possibility by this time next week


Also, the GFS keeps showing lowering pressures in that area
Quoting 646. Grothar:




What a beautiful Labor Day in South Florida:(
Quoting 644. Hurricanes101:



I do think a storm developing in the BOC/W Gulf is a possibility by this time next week


I don't disagree. Plenty of hints to keep one eye on that area.
Quoting 615. pottery:

HEAR YE ! HEAR YE !!!

It's Raining !

Thanks, Keeper !!!!
I better not forget too turn off the tap this time
Quoting 650. Grothar:




I do not think it will become anything tropical. It is expected to come ashore in 24 hours.
well school starts tomorrow
the students on during the day will disappear till after 3
and the late night crowd will thin out during the week
till the weekends

fall blog mode will be on

seems grace may fall from grace not much chance of anything from her I guess
but still worth a watch and see it get rip apart from shear and out from dry air



Quoting 647. Bucsboltsfan:



What a beautiful Labor Day in South Florida:(


should provide more drought relief.. so yeah depends on your perspective.. xD
Quoting 647. Bucsboltsfan:



What a beautiful Labor Day in South Florida:(


That's why I never look at where a low is going. I always watch the weather associated with it. We were struck by lightning on Saturday and it knocked out our air conditioner. We have been without air since. We have a wall unit and a portable which saved us. Still we have to stay in only two rooms. They aren't powerful enough to cool 10 rooms.
Quoting 654. Grothar:



That's why I never look at where a low is going. I always watch the weather associated with it. We were struck by lightning on Saturday and it knocked out our air conditioner. We have been without air since. We have a wall unit and a portable which saved us. Still we have to stay in only two rooms. They aren't powerful enough to cool 10 rooms.


Ouch! Losing your AC is an inconvenience but at least there wasn't a fire. When will your AC be replaced?
Quoting 652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well school starts tomorrow
the students on during the day will disappear till after 3
and the late night crowd will thin out during the week
till the weekends

fall blog mode will be on

seems grace may fall from grace not much chance of anything from her I guess
but still worth a watch and see it get rip apart from shear and out from dry air





Good News and interesting set-up starting tomorrow.
Quoting 645. FunnelVortex:



Also, the GFS keeps showing lowering pressures in that area
CMC and Euro has it too.
All the streets are flooded here in Laudersale-by-the-Sea th wind is howling the lightning is crazy!!! AMAZING STORM
Quoting 655. Bucsboltsfan:



Ouch! Losing your AC is an inconvenience but at least there wasn't a fire. When will your AC be replaced?


Hopefully tomorrow. The storms are so bad by us today, they refuse to do it. I told them what are the chances of getting struck by lightning twice in the same place, but they didn't listen.
Quoting 656. sporteguy03:


Good News and interesting set-up starting tomorrow.


What setup?
662. beell
Grace almost nekkid?



Quoting 642. Bucsboltsfan:



WKC?


Why are you throwing shots at WKC? We are on this blog to talk about weather & find out what's going to happen with these storms. This is not the place to act immature and silly. So plz.. chill out on the blog & let's have a serious talk about weather.
hopefully the last heat alert day today

cooling off beginning on wed
by Saturday highs will not reach 70
lows will be low to mid 50's
ahhh fall air is on the way
just a couple of days till it gets here

Toronto
Temperature:

90.5F

Dewpoint:

67.5F

Humidity:

46%

Wind:

WSW 20 mph

Humidex:

104
Name or no name, this is the 3rd time in the last 6 weeks that the West Coast of Florida is being impacted by tropical like rain bands. Same effect, just no name
Quoting 659. Grothar:



Hopefully tomorrow. The storms are so bad by us today, they refuse to do it. I told when what are the chances of getting struck by lightning twice in the same place, but they didn't listen.


I'm taking it the unit wasn't attached to a house ground wire? Is the unit blackened?
Looks like the west coast of Florida should get ready for round two of rain. I'm just S.E. of Fort Myers and the ditches are full off water. We've had a lot more rain than the city. I've (my personal weather station) had over 4" in two days, with 2.71" in the last 24 hours.
Quoting 665. Hurricanes101:

Name or no name, this is the 3rd time in the last 6 weeks that the West Coast of Florida is being impacted by tropical like rain bands. Same effect, just no name


This one hasn't been too bad so far. Last night there were talks of a rapidly developing storm with 55mph winds.
Quoting 668. Sfloridacat5:

Looks like the west coast of Florida should get ready for round two of rain. I'm just S.E. of Fort Myers and the ditches are full off water. We've had a lot more rain than the city. I've had over 4" in two days, with 2.71" in the last 24 hours.


yea there are a few bands lined up heading into Tampa/St Pete too
Quoting 669. Bucsboltsfan:



This one hasn't been too bad so far. Last night there were talks of a rapidly developing storm with 55mph winds.


yea from a forecast model that obviously had a bad initialization on it
Coming home from work (good evening/afternoon!), the first what I see in the weather net is this mess in southern Spain, esp. in Adra/Almeria.


Watch it from 0:39 on: incredible!

Costa del Rain: Southern Spain on alert for torrential rain and flooding
The Local (Spain) Published: 07 Sep 2015 13:03 GMT+02:00
Latest: Flights have been diverted, roads closed, and streets swamped, killing one man, as much of southern Spain was put on alert for torrential rain. ...

VIDEO SPECIAL: Hell and high water as shocking floods leave deaths in Andalucia
By Iona Napier (Reporter) - PUBLISHED - 7 Sep, 2015 @ 15:25, LAST UPDATED: 7 Sep, 2015 @ 18:12
THE heavens opened today, wreaking havoc across southern Spain today with at least one death.
While shocking floods swept through Adra in Almeria, news came in of one fatality – a 61-year-old Granada man who was killed when his car was washed away.
The plastic plant security guard was from Gualchos, close to Polopos where a man was swept to his death in the floods of September 2013.
With over half a metre of water falling in some places, at least 30 people trapped in their vehicles in Adra were rescued.
Over 100 calls were put into emergency services.
With some 40 litres of water per cubic metre falling over the last hour, the floods were heavier than Andalucia’s residents have seen in many years. ...

More see link above.

Freak floods in Andalucia threaten annual Almeria pilgrimage
EXTRAORDINARY flash floods across Andalucia are threatening one of the region’s cultural cornerstones.


Current airmass pic (saved) with more storms developing over Spain.
Quoting 662. beell:

Grace almost nekkid?




this thing may degenerate faster than expected
Quoting 666. redwagon:



I'm taking it the unit wasn't attached to a house ground wire? Is the unit blackened?


Other than knowing all the buttons on my cable remote, I don't know about those things. I did see that the inside was sort of melted.
Quoting 677. Grothar:



Other than knowing all the buttons on my cable remote, I don't know about those things. I did see that the inside was sort of melted.
put a flag pole next to ac then it will strike the flag pole next time
I live in Fort Laud. and what scares me is that even though its an el nino and FLA won't see a hurricane. The rain and moisture is crazy. We are in a "drought" yet we have had flooding rains all week. And I have 3 leaks in my house!!!
Quoting 660. FunnelVortex:



What setup?

Kids going back to school.
This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still. Everyone here is more complacent now. Some has forgot that FL gets tropical systems. Idk when the next time we'll get something. But whenever I'll be skeptical and prepared.
Just wanted to share this thought
I'm going to take my nap now. Please hold up on the good insults until I get back. I always miss the good ones. Let me know how Grace is doing!

Quoting 680. sporteguy03:


Kids going back to school.


I guess that will reduce the amount of trolls on this blog.
Quoting 676. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this thing may degenerate faster than expected
Yep...tremendous amount of sinking dry air.
Quoting 676. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this thing may degenerate faster than expected
Not an amazing "Grace".....
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 687. Starhopper:


Henri's embrion,...another little "worm" in the making....
Quoting 683. WeatherLover213:

This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still. Everyone here is more complacent now. Some has forgot that FL gets tropical systems. Idk when the next time we'll get something. But whenever I'll be skeptical and prepared.
Just wanted to share this thought

Disappointing? enjoy your wait.
Afternoon all ... it's pouring rain here in northern New Providence ...


Lookin' ragged.


WE HAVE A NEW YELLOW X NOW maybe invest 92L soon
Quoting 694. hurricanes2018:



WE HAVE A NEW YELLOW X NOW maybe invest 92L soon


It is moving inland in 24 hours
Quoting 669. Bucsboltsfan:



This one hasn't been too bad so far. Last night there were talks of a rapidly developing storm with 55mph winds.

Hmmm only one person was talking about that. He's also a a Bucs and Bolts fan.
Barb, did you see the huge hail that fell in Napoli?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

1. A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is not expected while it moves generally
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. However,
locally heavy rains are likely over portions of Florida through
Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 665. Hurricanes101:

Name or no name, this is the 3rd time in the last 6 weeks that the West Coast of Florida is being impacted by tropical like rain bands. Same effect, just no name

Gainesville has been very wet as of late.
I posted this earlier today. This was the first round of rain moving into my area near Fort Myers this morning (about 8:30am)
683. WeatherLover213
5:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2015
0This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still.


not having to spend thousands of dollars to satisfy your hurricane deductible before getting any home repairs done is BORING?

oh wait, maybe you're one of those people who doesn't actively provide his/her own roof. (shrugs)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 679. Camerooski:

I live in Fort Laud. and what scares me is that even though its an el nino and FLA won't see a hurricane. The rain and moisture is crazy. We are in a "drought" yet we have had flooding rains all week. And I have 3 leaks in my house!!!

Don't worry, it's not like you'll have to earn the money to fix them or anything.
Quoting 697. largeeyes:

Barb, did you see the huge hail that fell in Napoli?

Sure, I saw it and reported it in here nearly real time, largeeyes, lo.
looks like some rain there for ya gro

hi res vis sat time 144 pm edt

Quoting 701. aquak9:

683. WeatherLover213
5:25 PM GMT on September 07, 2015
0This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still.


not having to spend thousands of dollars to satisfy your hurricane deductible before getting any home repairs done is BORING?

oh wait, maybe you're one of those people who doesn't actively provide his/her own roof. (shrugs)

I pay for what I got! You don't know my life & what I own So get yo life.com and don't make insults Thanks boo!
Ps: if you lived in a hurricane zone and had to prepare for them you'll know what I'm talking about until you know.. Shhhhh (shrugs) ( my eyes are rolling)
Quoting 706. WeatherLover213:


I pay for what I got! You don't know my life & what I own So get yo life.com and don't make insults Thanks boo!
Ps: if you lived in a hurricane zone and had to prepare for them you'll know what I'm talking about until you know.. Shhhhh (shrugs) ( my eyes are rolling)


Aqua lives in a hurricane prone area, so um yea
Quoting 704. barbamz:


Sure, I saw it and reported it in here nearly real time, largeeyes, lo.


Oops. Missed that...can't get here so often and just saw it reported somewhere else. When was it?
Quoting 652. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well school starts tomorrow
the students on during the day will disappear till after 3
and the late night crowd will thin out during the week
till the weekends

fall blog mode will be on

seems grace may fall from grace not much chance of anything from her I guess
but still worth a watch and see it get rip apart from shear and out from dry air






Looks like a plane going down in flames....
Good Morning
Ok... It's the Daily Mail, which is a bit shreeky in character..... Nonetheless:

'Shocking' similarity between this year's looming El Nio and monster weather system of 1997


(the time-lapse video will probably be the thing that is of value to anyone in this group)

Conditions bear a resemblance to the huge El Nio event of 1997-98
Experts say they are 'shocked' by how similar the two years are
Forecast says El Nino conditions are likely to last until January
In previous El Nio events, California had 150 to 200% increase in rainfall
Can trigger heavy rains and floods in South America and scorching weather in Asia and as far away as east Africa

Link