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Impressive Bill churning huge waves; New England air pollution episode underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:38 PM GMT on August 18, 2009

Hurricane Bill has popped out an impressive eye, and continues to gather strength over the middle Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show a well-organized, symmetric hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels to the north and south. The spectacular appearance of the storm is evidence of the light wind shear environment that Bill finds itself in.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 27.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content also rises today into Wednesday, and it is expected that Bill will take advantage of these favorable conditions to intensify into a major hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters make their first penetration into Bill this afternoon. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be continuously flying Bill for the next three days. They are flying research missions that will feed real-time radar data into an experimental version of the HWRF model to see if this data can improve the model forecasts.


Figure 1. Wave forecast for Hurricane Bill from NOAA's Wavewatch III model. Beginning Saturday (right panel) large waves from Bill are expected to affect most of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, the model predicts waves of 10 - 15 feet may impact the offshore waters of New England.

Water vapor satellite loops show that a trough of low pressure is diving down towards Bill, and this trough will be able to turn Bill more to the northwest over the next two days, and Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The main impact of Bill on these islands will be high waves. Yesterday, Bill passed just north of Buoy 41041, which recorded significant wave heights of 28.8 feet. Maximum wave height is typically a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height, so Bill was likely generating waves up to 55 feet high. High waves from Bill are propagating across the Atlantic towards the U.S. East Coast, and will arrive there on Saturday, according to NOAA's Wavewatch III model (Figure 1). The highest waves spawned by Bill will affect the New England coast, where waves of 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters can be expected. The waves will cause significant erosion of beaches, and possible damage to shoreline structures.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill to the north. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear, and both Bermuda and Cape Cod, Massachusetts will be in Bill's 5-day forecast cone of uncertainty. At present, it appears that the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia are at greatest risk from a strike by Bill, but New England and Bermuda cannot relax just yet.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing heavy rain to Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas today, and this activity will spread over South Florida tonight. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. No models are calling for any new tropical cyclones to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Terra satellite of air pollution haze over the Northeast U.S. on Monday, August 17, 2009.

First major air pollution episode of the summer for the Northeast U.S.
New England is currently experiencing a far more deadly weather event than a direct hit by Hurricane Bill would likely bring--a large dome of high pressure. The reason? The high pressure system camped over the Northeast U.S. has brought hot temperatures, stagnant air, and the summer's first major air pollution episode.

The event started on Sunday, when a high pressure system with light winds moved over the eastern U.S., limited mixing and leading to stagnation and a buildup of pollutants. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures also enhanced formation of ground-level ozone gas, a dangerous pollutant. Furthermore, southerly winds brought high humidity into the Northeast, which is conducive to particle pollution formation in the atmosphere. Particle pollution is the most deadly form of air pollution in the U.S. The poor air quality led to issuance of air quality advisories and action days on Monday in more than 30 cities, including New York City, NY; Newark, NJ; Providence, RI; and Portland, ME.

Today's air pollution forecast
Today, similar conditions are expected across much of the region, and Air Quality Index (AQI) levels are forecasted to remain in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange) range for many areas in the Northeast. For a complete list of action/advisory days and their locations, visit the EPA AIRNow website.

Health Tip: Cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise when air quality is expected to be poor.

How You Can Help: Choose a cleaner commute - share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk when possible. Combine errands and reduce trips.

Mortality from air pollution
As I discussed in a previous blog post, air pollution is a far more deadly weather hazard in the U.S. than hurricanes. Sure, hurricanes have killed an average of 150 people per year in the U.S., and the "premature deaths" caused by air pollution are only partly attributable to breathing bad air, while drowning in a hurricane's storm surge is entirely due to the hurricane. Nevertheless, a great many children die of pollution-induced asthma attacks who would not have died otherwise, and the mortality due to air pollution in the general population is in the thousands or ten of thousands each year. Outdoor air pollution in the U.S. due to particulate pollution alone was estimated by the EPA in 1997 to cause at least 20,000 premature deaths each year. A 2005 study by EPA scientists (Particulate Matter Health Risk Assessment for Selected Urban Areas) estimated that over 4,700 premature deaths occur each year in just nine cities (Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Boston, Phoenix, Seattle, and San Jose)--even if those cities all met the current federal standards for particulate matter pollution. Extrapolating these data to the entire nation puts the annual death toll in the tens of thousands--but the EPA has not calculated that total. Some studies have placed the annual pollution death toll in the U.S. at 50,000 to 100,000 (Dockery, D.W., and C.A Pope III. Acute Respiratory Effects of Particulate Air Pollution. Annual Review Public Health, 1994, vol. 15,107-32.) The death toll is much higher in other parts of the world, where air pollution standards are not as stringent. Globally, about 800,000 people per year die prematurely due to outdoor air pollution, according to a 2005 study published in the Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health. This represents about 1.2 percent of total annual global deaths.

In the debate over the costs of switching over the cleaner energy sources, the huge costs and deaths attributable to air pollution are often ignored. Sure, it will be costly to move away from fossil fuels, but let's not forget that the price per gallon we pay at the pump does not include the billions in medical costs we pay for the effects of air pollution.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3502. FLdewey
Not Nova Scotia!!! I hope Bubble's Bar is okay.
Quoting srada:


I thought you were banned after what you pull last night and you are doing it again!

im not a troll so i didn't get banned
3505. Prgal
Quoting serialteg:


Decent surfing was done in the Metro area, but none in the south :/

This Thursday/Friday paints a different picture, though. I'll get my fix. Looks epic on F'day.

Yeah, that's what I hear. Have fun on Friday and be careful :)
3506. P451
Quoting Gulfsyed:


Why is there no lightning in the inner half of the storm?


That's a good question and I'd rather let the more educated on here answer that if they would. My understanding is that Hurricanes have minimal lightning in the core because of a lack of vertical winds. It's the outer bands that hold the lighting intense thunderstorms.

Upon googling I found an interesting article here.

Link

Quoting srada:


I thought you were banned after what you pull last night and you are doing it again!

now you are going on ignore
3508. Patrap
Hey mikatnight,evening,early dawn,..b-4 ya take yer HAmmer to my Nads,..maybe take a moment to read up on the Blogger yer nailing before ya do it.

Heres the Dec 22nd 2008 entry from this Blog.


Dec 22nd 2008 entry
I know one thing, we are preparing in Halifax, Nova Scotia so we are ready. Even if it skirts us it's going to be a rough showing.
Quoting breald:


Damage can be done without a direct hit. If the storm passes close enough to the west of Bermuda, they will be on the bad side of the storm. Katrina was not a direct hit to NO.


Indeed

Sometimes though, as with Ana, things are just unpredictable. I live in the south of Puerto Rico where it was closest to where she passed, but there was nothing. Meanwhile, just 30 miles north, seemed to be where all the action was. Go figure.
Quoting stormsurge39:
PensacolaDoug, Does the swirl south of Cuba have ANY potential for developement once it gets in the GOM?



Thats a coldcore upper level low. It takes a long time for those type sytems to make the transition, several days I believe at least.
It will be long gone by then. (I think)!
Quoting GBlet:
WHERE IS SURFMOM????

Surfys on holidays somewhere
Quoting Patrap:
Hey mikatnight,evening,early dawn,..b-4 ya take yer HAmmer to my Nads,..maybe take a moment to read up on the Blogger yer nailing before ya do it.

Heres the Dec 22nd 2008 entry from this Blog.


Dec 22nd 2008 entry

pat what is your take on the african wave
3516. jpsb
Quoting serialteg:


It's for less than 940 millibars. But since the Hunter only found 952... he's assuming Bill will continue to drop in MB, as forecasted.

Still, in that layer the weakness is evident.
Ok, since I am not a MET I guess it is OK to ast some really dumb questions. I'll try not to ask to many at any one time. Really basic question #1. I have always thought that a high was a dome of air, actually higher in altitude then say a low? Is that correct or is a high siimply denser then a low but at the same (roughly) altitude? thanks
3517. srada
Quoting Acemmett90:

now you are going on ignore


fine with me..i hardly comment on here anyway but you were wrong last night and you are still doing it!
One thing to note here, and it's scary, that Bill reached CAT-4 WITHOUT touching water temp of about 28.5C (give or take)!
Anything that gets in to the carribean west of 65W long...WATCH OUT!!
should BILL make that turn ealier than forecast, then bermuda will be in line for a direct hit. take into consideration that the 5 day forecast has a large margn of error
Quoting rarepearldesign:
I know one thing, we are preparing in Halifax, Nova Scotia so we are ready. Even if it skirts us it's going to be a rough showing.
I'm pretty close to Nova Scotia and I'm prepard.
3521. Prgal
Quoting apocalyps:
Bill is going to continue his western journey.
NHC has not showed me one evidence to take Bill North.Not one.
It will turn eventually on friday but this mistake of the NHC will cost thousands,millions,billions of lives.

Yes sweetie. Go here and play for a while now http://onlinegames.slingo.com/games/indexFree.php?gameid=25 Go on...
Quoting rarepearldesign:
I know one thing, we are preparing in Halifax, Nova Scotia so we are ready. Even if it skirts us it's going to be a rough showing.


Make sure you have the Brothers store properly protected... I would have to have to find someplace else to import pepperoni from.
Quoting Prgal:

Yes sweetie. Go here and play for a while now http://onlinegames.slingo.com/games/indexFree.php?gameid=25 Go on...

lol
Bermuda is out of the woods.
Quoting Patrap:


Yup..most USMC Vets do,,Kinda like the Jedi..

Whats yer excuse,..LOL?



Oh (explitive deleted)! Figures you're a jarhead! I've got nothing but respect for you guys. I'm a WWII buff, Flags of our Fathers, OMG!...you guys are the best...my wife lost a son in Tower Two...now I have tears in my eyes you old bastard...God Bess you and thanks for your service. I don't suppose there's a chance you could be a little nicer to folks here...a little less abrasive? No, of course not...keep up the good work then...
3526. P451
HPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA/DOC Surface Analysis

Saturday



Sunday



Monday (Yes, that's Bill depicted as an L)

NAVY site is lagging in African coast imagery! Anyone knows what's happening to the wave near Africa?
5 am Advisory:

My Proj. Path:


3530. Dakster
Quoting P451:


I suppose the Canadian Maritimes don't count. Nova Scotia and Newfoundland stand to receive a substantial blasting from Bill if the models continue to hold true as they have for two days now in putting those folks in the line of fire.

But I mean, it's just Canada afterall, they don't count. It's Miami, New Orleans, Houston. The rest are just fish. I mean, what do we care anyway, we don't live there.

:/



I am sure that both people living in Nova Scotia are watching the storm and will evac if neccessary.

They get bad storms all of the time and this is just a summer version of a nasty winter storm.

But you are correct, I am more interested in how a storm will directly impact me and this is a normal Human reaction/emotion.
Quoting stoormfury:
should BILL make that turn ealier than forecast, then bermuda will be in line for a direct hit. take into consideration that the 5 day forecast has a large margn of error


Please try not to doomcast, as things so far out have so much margin of error it's practically impossible currently to assure anything like a 'direct hit'.
Quoting Chiggy007:
NAVY site is lagging in African coast imagery! Anyone knows what's happening to the wave near Africa?


Link
Quoting Chiggy007:
NAVY site is lagging in African coast imagery! Anyone knows what's happening to the wave near Africa?

all i know is some of the modles are picking it up
3534. Melagoo
Quoting apocalyps:
Bill is going to continue his western journey.
NHC has not showed me one evidence to take Bill North.Not one.
It will turn eventually on friday but this mistake of the NHC will cost thousands,millions,billions of lives.


Grow up ... Troller boy
3535. Patrap
Quoting mikatnight:


Oh (explitive deleted)! Figures you're a jarhead! I've got nothing but respect for you guys. I'm a WWII buff, Flags of our Fathers, OMG!...you guys are the best...my wife lost a son in Tower Two...now I have tears in my eyes you old bastard...God Bess you and thanks for your service. I don't suppose there's a chance you could be a little nicer to folks here...a little less abrasive? No, of course not...keep up the good work then...



Im as nice as a kitten before nursing sweetie,but being openly chastised by someone my Jr by 31 Years kinda grinds against my pre-Coffee time.
I will always answer and help anyone here,as Thats why most of us blog.

So Sorry for your Loss as well.
Quoting apocalyps:
Bill is going to continue his western journey.
NHC has not showed me one evidence to take Bill North.Not one.
It will turn eventually on friday but this mistake of the NHC will cost thousands,millions,billions of lives.

Would you zip it, can't you tell north from south or what??

Bill is on WNW track not WEST, a few degrees can make a big difference
some of the models are hinting of some form of tropical development with that african wave the next three to five days
3539. P451
Quoting AllStar17:






Good stuff.
Quoting DestinJeff:


i agree Bermuda is more likely to have major affects than the east coast of CONUS ... my point is about the timing/strength of the trough. surely it won't be stronger than forecasted, so deviation in strength would lead to a track further west (as would a slower progressing trough).

Bermuda residents are surely well aware of the danger and making necessary preparations. However, I'm not sure the same could be said for many residents along the eastern seaboard from mid-alantic on North. Not that they should be boarding windows, but they should be aware the threat does still exist for them.

Preperation and awareness are key, afterall.


Yeah good point I'm here in Virginia Beach VA, what and just what if the storm continues to slow it's forward movement and the trough slows and is not as strong as predicted??? Also don't major storms create their own atmosphere and can push through a trough?? Please help, Just this morning our local weathermen are talking a new talk.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Sorry for that, but I didn't see any comment to suggest that that was for educational purposes for someone who had requested it. Had I known the intent behind that image comment, I would not have made such a hasty correction.


Dont be sorry.. Your post was very educational.. For learning its great to have a brief explanation for the graphic. Everyone assumes every knows what everyone is talking about. Thank you
One HH ontask, and one new one approaching.



I normally update the HH flights about every 15 minutes on the blog when I am online
hey guys where is the first box cuz if bill clips it
Quoting jpsb:
Ok, since I am not a MET I guess it is OK to ast some really dumb questions. I'll try not to ask to many at any one time. Really basic question #1. I have always thought that a high was a dome of air, actually higher in altitude then say a low? Is that correct or is a high siimply denser then a low but at the same (roughly) altitude? thanks


I can't answer you, but hey, don't think of your questions as dumb. I know you're being humble, but realize that there are no dumb questions, just dumb people who don't ask them.

I'm out! Chemistry class, here I come.
Quoting keywestbrat:

Would you zip it, can't you tell north from south or what??

Bill is on WNW track not WEST, a few degrees can make a big difference


Excactly what i am saying WNW.
This will keep on for two more days(friday)and then it will turn and hit the eastcoast.
I am glad you think the same.
To Patrap:
I humbly bend to your greater good. I wish I could say half as much for myself. Semper fidelis
3547. Dakster
Acemmett90 - I don't think it will clip Hebert's Box, so we won't be able to validate or invalidate the Box theory. (Although Andrew missed the Box too..)
3549. hcubed
Quick question, for those who may know:

If Bill takes the forcast path (up by the New England area), will the haze/pollution/particulate matter that the doctor talks about have an effect on Bill's strength?

My reasoning is, if a hurricane's development can be disrupted by the SAL, then it might be hampered by ingestion of the pollution.
3550. chrisrw
Quoting AllStar17:
Back in a few minutes. Bermuda watching Bill


Can't see much from St George's! I'm there myself and there's no wind or surf.
3551. Prgal
Have a great day Serial.
Quoting P451:


Good stuff.


Thanks! I am glad you like them. I'd be glad to tell you how I make them (if you want to know)
you are so correct BILL is so strong that it can bust the trough and continue wnw to the CONUS
A hurricane cannot just "push through" a trough. Sometimes a hurricane can push through a ridge, by creating a weakness. But it can't push through a trough. What happens is that the hurricane becomes just one of many low-pressure centers moving along the trough.
Quoting Prgal:
Have a great day Serial.


You too!!!!!!!
3556. Patrap
Well,Dad is out to replace a Bad bottom Motor Mount on a Saturn SL-1 5-speed.
Dau goes up to LSU tomorrow starting her College Life.

So keep the faith.
Quoting mikatnight:


I humbly bend to your greater good. I wish I could say half as much for myself. Semper fidelis

i put the past behind me and try my best not to be a screw up but man i messed that up so crow me
I've never had an ignore list but the ludicrous monomania of apoclyps and others is making me think I'll need one.
Quoting Patrap:


Yup..most USMC Vets do,,Kinda like the Jedi..

Whats yer excuse,..LOL?



Semper Fi pat! :)
Quoting Dakster:
Acemmett90 - I don't think it will clip Hebert's Box, so we won't be able to validate or invalidate the Box theory. (Although Andrew missed the Box too..)

looking at the sat now and it will be very close to clipping the box
3561. divdog
Quoting stoormfury:
you are so correct BILL is so strong that it can bust the trough and continue wnw to the CONUS
nooooooooooooo waaaaaaaaaaay
Good morning everybody.

Quoting NYer:
@ 3417:

That "weakness" that you are focusing on -- at 60W -- is not so weak at other levels -- see 3415.

This is not the trough that is forecast to really pull Bill north. If it were, Bill wouldn't even get west of Bermuda; it would be heading straight north right now. The 60W weakness might pull Bill north marginally -- in fact, it might already have done so.

The trough that will save the East Coast is still to the west of the Bermuda high (which admittedly on your post looks like a Georgia-Carolinas high). Bill will go up the west side of the Bermuda high, not the east side.
This is pretty much what NHC forecasters have been describing since abt Monday: one smaller trough that will pull it N of the islands, then the second, larger trough this weekend to kick it up (and hopefully out without any direct effect on land). The current trough does look capable of pulling Bill N of 20. Then it's a matter of timing.....


Quoting lovesdanger:
nyer thats what i been saying if bill passes just west of bermuda the island will take the full force of the storm not good for bermuda at all...could be lots of people killed..they need to get out bill could be a cat 5 by then not to mention his size...
1. Bermudians are not going to evacuate. For the vast majority of them there is no place to evacuate to.
2. A lot of Bermudian houses are built to withstand storms as powerful as Bill is likely to be if he passes over them.

I think Bermuda will survive a hit from Hurricane Bill. It may not be pretty, but they've done it before, perhaps for longer than any other European settlement in the ATL basin....
3563. jpsb
Quoting SeVaSurfer:


Yeah good point I'm here in Virginia Beach VA, what and just what if the storm continues to slow it's forward movement and the trough slows and is not as strong as predicted??? Also don't major storms create their own atmosphere and can push through a trough?? Please help, Just this morning our local weathermen are talking a new talk.


I'll take a stab at that, short answer Yes but rarely. Long answer. If a storm is big enough and powerful enough then it's outflow can create it's own little ridge against a weak low pressure trof. Does not happen often I think hurricane Allen was the last big hurricane to do it. If I am wrong someone please correct me.
3564. chrisrw
Quoting lovesdanger:
jeff there steel houses can withstand winds of 130mph ...then after that the steel houses start to fall apart man..these people need to get off the island now while they still can...bill will be a cat 5 before getting to bermuda and that will destroy the island if this happens..bill is continuing to strengthen...


Don't talk nonsense! Homes in Bermuda are made of stone/concrete block and Bill will do very little structural damage. Only if you're out in a boat or swimming should you be concerned. Just get your shutters up and have a party!
Quoting divdog:
nooooooooooooo waaaaaaaaaaay


Yes he can,yes he can
What a strong CANE Bill is....lived up to the expectations.
3568. breald
Quoting AllStar17:
5 am Advisory:

My Proj. Path:




I don't like your projected path because that puts me in the path..LOL.
Quoting lovesdanger:
i would love to see bill keep heading wnw and hit the eastern us like you guys want and maybe then bill would spare bermuda...i think right now bermuda needs a miracle...you guys just dont know how stupid you sound wanting bill to head to the east coast..this is a killer man its going to take lots of lives..you need to realize this and how lucky you are..
Quoting Acemmett90:

i put the past behind me and try my best not to be a screw up but man i messed that up so crow me


lol! Sorry, my fault. Was trying to quote Patrap and missed by a mile!
3571. jpsb
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Semper Fi pat! :)
USMC vet here too (long tine inactive).
I don't think that ULL south of Cuba is anything to worry about. Its about to hit a ridge of High Pressure that will prevent it from developing into anything. On the gulf coast I think what we need to watch for is a cut off low that could form this weekend or next week if the front that is forecast to come through on Friday stalls out.

I don't think it is much to worry about right now but the GOM is very warm and just needs to be watched.
3573. divdog
Quoting apocalyps:


Yes he can,yes he can
you are living in a dream world . You about 15 years old by the sound of things ??
Good Morning. I think the Blog ate my last post but Britian and the US need to coordinate rescue and supply missions for Bermuda in the event of a direct hit so that they can move in immediately if Bill impacts the Island. Also, the upper US Coast from the Carolinas to New England need to keep a close eye on Bill as well. That "squeeze" play between Bermuda and New England is too close for comfort.
Quoting rwdobson:
A hurricane cannot just "push through" a trough. Sometimes a hurricane can push through a ridge, by creating a weakness. But it can't push through a trough. What happens is that the hurricane becomes just one of many low-pressure centers moving along the trough.


This is true. A good way is to visualize it in 3D. Think of the hurricane as a marble spinning on the surface of the earth. The ridge of high pressure is just what it sounds like: an area of elevation which will cause the hurricane to "roll downhill" along its periphery. A low pressure trough acts kind of like a depression in this surface, and the "ball" merely follows gravity downhill towards its center.

While this is a bit of an oversimplification, it is a good way to visualize how the storm behaves.
This is a pretty reasonable track, I would think. Tampa, what do you think? I made it, and I think I actually should have moved it a tad east. I do think Bill will pass to the WEST of Bermuda.
3580. Dakster
Ace: Yeah, I see if took the far southern end of the track cone it could clip it...

We will just have to wait and see. I still think that the NHC has a good handle on the storm and for the most part has been following the forecast track philosophy if nothing else.
3581. FLdewey
Quoting rwdobson:
I've never had an ignore list but the ludicrous monomania of apoclyps and others is making me think I'll need one.


Don't put him on ignore... he's good for a snicker once in a while. ;-)
Quoting lovesdanger:
fury i wisg to GOD bill could break through this trough and hit the east coast maybe then people would be happy ..they could have a party and after if they happen to survive can go help collect all the dead bodies ...you guys are sick..this is a killer here worse then hugo who took many lives and will sure be worse then katrina ever was..you dont know how lucky you are...bermuda would love to trade places with you right
now..




??Dude.....
Quoting Patrap:
Hey mikatnight,evening,early dawn,..b-4 ya take yer HAmmer to my Nads,..maybe take a moment to read up on the Blogger yer nailing before ya do it.

Heres the Dec 22nd 2008 entry from this Blog.


Dec 22nd 2008 entry


That's the quote I was supposed to have. Yeesh!
Quoting mikatnight:


Oh (explitive deleted)! Figures you're a jarhead! I've got nothing but respect for you guys. I'm a WWII buff, Flags of our Fathers, OMG!...you guys are the best...my wife lost a son in Tower Two...now I have tears in my eyes you old bastard...God Bess you and thanks for your service. I don't suppose there's a chance you could be a little nicer to folks here...a little less abrasive? No, of course not...keep up the good work then...


Wow awesome sarcasm...can be a useful tool...if used properly...and as the Marine formerly known as Cpl Ryan...I would out of deep rooted pride and principle, the likes of which you will never be able to comprehend...stand up for pat...but brotherhood aside...he is a good person and a cool cat. I dont know what you did to piss each other off...but you cannot win. You seem to be a smart person...but not smart enough to argue with some of these old timers...and you will just end up bruised and confused, and on everyone who matters ignore lists...I like you man...choose your battle wisely and if not...always leave an avenue to save face...jmho
Quoting rwdobson:
A hurricane cannot just "push through" a trough. Sometimes a hurricane can push through a ridge, by creating a weakness. But it can't push through a trough. What happens is that the hurricane becomes just one of many low-pressure centers moving along the trough.


Thanks Man! I guess I get those confused-> by no means a weather expert.
Quoting Acemmett90:

looking at the sat now and it will be very close to clipping the box
You asking before where the box is and now you saying he will come close to clipping it ?
Also, I was just up in Boston and Connecticut last week on vacation and trust me; the last thing on peoples mind up there is the possibility of a hurricane strike.
Quoting mikatnight:


lol! Sorry, my fault. Was trying to quote Patrap and missed by a mile!

nice we all make mistakes
Quoting uptxcoast:
I don't think that ULL south of Cuba is anything to worry about. Its about to hit a ridge of High Pressure that will prevent it from developing into anything. On the gulf coast I think what we need to watch for is a cut off low that could form this weekend or next week if the front that is forecast to come through on Friday stalls out.

I don't think it is much to worry about right now but the GOM is very warm and just needs to be watched.


Last night's Canadian GEM regional run forecast gradually dropping sfc pressures in the Gomex and a weak low up near the panhandle by Friday eve. It will be interesting to see if this tendency continues on this morning's run...



Link
Quoting ConchHondros:


Wow awesome sarcasm...can be a useful tool...if used properly...and as the Marine formerly known as Cpl Ryan...I would out of deep rooted pride and principle, the likes of which you will never be able to comprehend...stand up for pat...but brotherhood aside...he is a good person and a cool cat. I dont know what you did to piss each other off...but you cannot win. You seem to be a smart person...but not smart enough to argue with some of these old timers...and you will just end up bruised and confused, and on everyone who matters ignore lists...I like you man...choose your battle wisely and if not...always leave an avenue to save face...jmho
I see from your avatar you have been to Grand Cayman. What did you think of it ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You asking before where the box is and now you saying he will come close to clipping it ?

i looked them up on google and compaied it to the loop
Quoting FLdewey:


Don't put him on ignore... he's good for a snicker once in a while. ;-)


That's why I've never had an ignore list...but on the other hand, his act is growing a bit stale.
Here in Bermuda things are moving ahead re planning. We are only expecting big surf and Trop Storm winds but also realize things can change quickly. Only one or two degrees of a more northernly move now, could have us looking down the barrel. Attached is the local link.

Link
good morning guys...love the comment but like i left you last night..bill is still doing wnw..yes thousands of people are going to be hurt..i was thru andrew, katrina, and wilma. computers are machines..bill is a breathing item..
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I see from your avatar you have been to Grand Cayman. What did you think of it ?


I go once per year...I sometimes take the 7 day on the Conquest and hit Jamaica and Cozumel as well...but the Caymans...wow, to sum it up in one word...heaven.
3596. Dakster
Go to Orcasystems page, he has the track and the boxes on a google earth map. You will be able to clearly see whether it clips the box or not.
Quoting Acemmett90:

i looked them up on google and compaied it to the loop
Ok, but if you check Orca's comments it always shows them.
Quoting ConchHondros:


I go once per year...I sometimes take the 7 day on the Conquest and hit Jamaica and Cozumel as well...but the Caymans...wow, to sum it up in one word...heaven.
Glad you enjoy it. I am originally from the US but have been living here for 36 years and could not imagine living anywhere else.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok, but if you check Orca's comments it always shows them.

wanted a quick route looked at it witha 30 image loop and it will barly hit or miss the box
The hunters just missed Bill.
They were looking way to much to the north.
They assumed Bill had turned North but good old Billy West is way more west.
The hunters also have found an eye,a wind and an airplane.Now returning to the lab to find out who s eye it is and who s wind it is.The airplane puzzle is solved,they were on it.It was there own airplane.Keep up the good work hunters.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


This is true. A good way is to visualize it in 3D. Think of the hurricane as a marble spinning on the surface of the earth. The ridge of high pressure is just what it sounds like: an area of elevation which will cause the hurricane to "roll downhill" along its periphery. A low pressure trough acts kind of like a depression in this surface, and the "ball" merely follows gravity downhill towards its center.

While this is a bit of an oversimplification, it is a good way to visualize how the storm behaves.


Thats a great way of putting it. I guess I should just trust the NHC and all other experts. I just have 2 small kids and we live 2 blocks from the oceanfront. Isabel was our last Cane and we did not prepare like we should have. Actually a little thanks to our local weathermen down playing the entire event. Thanks for all of the input.
Quoting dolphingalrules:
good morning guys...love the comment but like i left you last night..bill is still doing wnw..yes thousands of people are going to be hurt..i was thru andrew, katrina, and wilma. computers are machines..bill is a breathing item..


Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?
3603. jpsb
Quoting SavannahStorm:


This is true. A good way is to visualize it in 3D. Think of the hurricane as a marble spinning on the surface of the earth. The ridge of high pressure is just what it sounds like: an area of elevation which will cause the hurricane to "roll downhill" along its periphery. A low pressure trough acts kind of like a depression in this surface, and the "ball" merely follows gravity downhill towards its center.

While this is a bit of an oversimplification, it is a good way to visualize how the storm behaves.


I asked this eariler maybe you can answer it?
"Ok, since I am not a MET I guess it is OK to ast some really dumb questions. I'll try not to ask to many at any one time. Really basic question #1. I have always thought that a high was a dome of air, actually higher in altitude then say a low? Is that correct or is a high siimply denser then a low but at the same (roughly) altitude? thanks"
Quoting gittyup1:
Here in Bermuda things are moving ahead re planning. We are only expecting big surf and Trop Storm winds but also realize things can change quickly. Only one or two degrees of a more northernly move now, could have us looking down the barrel. Attached is the local link.

Link
As someone who has been through a Cat4-5 when Ivan hit the Cayman Islands I can only say one thing. Be safe and don't venture out unnecessarily and take foolish risks.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Glad you enjoy it. I am originally from the US but have been living here for 36 years and could not imagine living anywhere else.


I even looked at property in Hell...I know, I know, chickens in the front yard...but I will live there when I retire...its my one and only goal.
Pat, you getting any of this squally weather yet coming up out of the Gulf? Odd to get it so early in the day.
Quoting ConchHondros:


I even looked at property in Hell...I know, I know, chickens in the front yard...but I will live there when I retire...its my one and only goal.
Chickens in the front yard no matter which district you live in. Best of luck in obtaining your goal.
Evening all !

This is a little joke... I have compared BILL's size with our Iberian Peninsula... It's terrifying!

Quoting ConchHondros:


Wow awesome sarcasm...can be a useful tool...if used properly...and as the Marine formerly known as Cpl Ryan...I would out of deep rooted pride and principle, the likes of which you will never be able to comprehend...stand up for pat...but brotherhood aside...he is a good person and a cool cat. I dont know what you did to piss each other off...but you cannot win. You seem to be a smart person...but not smart enough to argue with some of these old timers...and you will just end up bruised and confused, and on everyone who matters ignore lists...I like you man...choose your battle wisely and if not...always leave an avenue to save face...jmho


Oh man! I'm screwing up royal today. I quoted the wrong guy, stepped on the USMC's toes, rats! It wasn't sarcasm. For the record. I have great admiration and respect for Patrap and all our service men and women, especially those who go above and beyond to help others as Patrap as done. Forgive me if I offended anyone. The irony is not lost on me that my original intent was to prevent offense. Oh well. I better quit while I'm behind. Anybody want to talk about the weather?
The Ensembles models went west, notice 2 USA landfalls...

Quoting ConchHondros:


Wow awesome sarcasm...can be a useful tool...if used properly...and as the Marine formerly known as Cpl Ryan...I would out of deep rooted pride and principle, the likes of which you will never be able to comprehend...stand up for pat...but brotherhood aside...he is a good person and a cool cat. I dont know what you did to piss each other off...but you cannot win. You seem to be a smart person...but not smart enough to argue with some of these old timers...and you will just end up bruised and confused, and on everyone who matters ignore lists...I like you man...choose your battle wisely and if not...always leave an avenue to save face...jmho


Don;t tell me, you;re changing jobs and becoming a diplomat, right? What's up, Conch?
3613. Ossqss
Does anyone have any wind field data on this puppy? It is huge.




Had to double check to ensure I was on the right blog. I thought it was Jerry Springer's for s second. LoL
Cazatormentos - Very good comparison. Bill is a big storm. Best hope it doesn't make that northern loop and come by your coastline on its way South again....By the way, does your name mean storm hunter?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Chickens in the front yard no matter which district you live in. Best of luck in obtaining your goal.


LOL too true. I'll donate mine to anyone who wants em! :)
Quoting rwdobson:


That's why I've never had an ignore list...but on the other hand, his act is growing a bit stale.
I haven't read a post from that guy for simply AGES.... but then I have my filter set to "show bad" - eliminates a lot of the nasty stuff in here with little / no effort.....


Quoting gittyup1:
Here in Bermuda things are moving ahead re planning. We are only expecting big surf and Trop Storm winds but also realize things can change quickly. Only one or two degrees of a more northernly move now, could have us looking down the barrel. Attached is the local link.

Link
Thanks for the info, git. I keep trying to get pple on the blog to understand that pple in Bermuda aren't taking this lightly.
Think I just noticed a slight NW movement for Bill, but it could be just a wobble.
Hey Flood!! yeah thats me...Conch Ghandi...
3619. msphar
Man! What a massive heat transfer engine that thing is! Goodbye, Bill! It was good not seeing ya.
Quoting ConchHondros:
Hey Flood!! yeah thats me...Conch Ghandi...


My man...so what's up?
Quoting watercayman:


LOL too true. I'll donate mine to anyone who wants em! :)
I have some in coops but more in the yard IDK where they even come from. Husband and grandson like the eggs.
Quoting P451:


Gulf of Mexico.

Go to StormW's blog, check this OLD ENTRY. He has a list of all the needed abbreviations.



Thank You P451
Bill is cleaning his eye.Once he sees clear again it will be West untill he hits the East.
Day 7 for this Tropical System:
Your comments made me go back and look at my ignore list and clean it out. Aaah the memories, ChinaCohen,Tropical Amanda, All the stormtops in their various forms.



Thanks for the info, git. I keep trying to get pple on the blog to understand that pple in Bermuda aren't taking this lightly.

Yeah, I also have been trying to get people to understand this can still hit skirt New England at the worst. They need to be on there guard and watch this storm.
Quoting Cazatormentas:
Evening all !

This is a little joke... I have compared BILL's size with our Iberian Peninsula... It's terrifying!

Wow. One way of putting Bill in perspective.... muy interestante....
3629. mac3821
Good Morning all! I am new here and have learned a ton in the last week. Very good info from some of you!......bad from others!LOL...Here is my main question....Even if Bill follows the track that puts it pretty close to the East Coast. Can we not expect some dammaging wind in addition to waves and erosion? Also it seems like the tracks have been inching west just a bit every other day or so. I am no weather expert and very untrained so I am interested in your opinions.
to my highly biased and severly limited untrained eye...Bill seems to still be wnw @16..
Good morning everyone.. Can anyone tell me how to get those 3 or 5 day tracking archive models from past hurricanes..

Thank you..
Let's hope Bill shoots the gap. The waves should be huge Sun/Mon on NE coast
Quoting newenglader:
Let's hope Bill shoots the gap. The waves should be huge Sun/Mon on NE coast


Ofcourse its going more to the west.
Anyone agreed on that.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Cazatormentos - Very good comparison. Bill is a big storm. Best hope it doesn't make that northern loop and come by your coastline on its way South again....By the way, does your name mean storm hunter?


Hi, TropicTraveler. Yes, "Cazatormentas" is the spanish translation of "Stormchaser". There is a big community in Spain.

And, yes, we are lucky that we stay far from being affected by these atmospheric monsters...
Quoting lovesdanger:
reedzone not to be mean but i hope your forecast is right if it hits new york it will be well west of bermuda and they wont get the full brunt of this killer hurricane...new york people sounds like they want bill so send him that way and destroy new york..spare bermuda..i hope it slams into n carolina and goes right up the east coast that will make me very happy..


Nope, it will most likely recurve off the coast of New England with some outer bands hitting Cape Cod. However, people in the northeast should still watch Bill just in case something unexpected happens. I remember a documentary saying that the 1938 Hurricane was expected to recurve out to sea, instead it moved up the coast along a weak trough. I live in Florida btw
3636. IKE
Quoting lurkn4yrs:
Good morning everyone.. Can anyone tell me how to get those 3 or 5 day tracking archive models from past hurricanes..

Thank you..


here
3637. BrandiQ
Can anyone explain to me why bill is going faster now. WNW at 18MPH
Not much Flood...waiting for the boss to tell me to roll...hopefully we can get your way someday soon...I have a half-a-hog we can put in the ground...we still owe you and Mrs Flood a dinner :)
3639. Prgal
000
WTNT33 KNHC 191444
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...POWERFUL HURRICANE BILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.3 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES...
610 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1080 MILES
...1735 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THURSDAY. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 PLANE AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.7N 56.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Does anyone have a link to the models developing the african wave? It looks good this morning.
Quoting mac3821:
Good Morning all! I am new here and have learned a ton in the last week. Very good info from some of you!......bad from others!LOL...Here is my main question....Even if Bill follows the track that puts it pretty close to the East Coast. Can we not expect some dammaging wind in addition to waves and erosion? Also it seems like the tracks have been inching west just a bit every other day or so. I am no weather expert and very untrained so I am interested in your opinions.
If you live along the Eastern Sea Board Expect high surf and large waves aswell as some localized beach erosion in places like Mass. and Maine and well.. Nova Scotia. but I still have no idea if the New England will get any rain and high winds.
Quoting lovesdanger:
reedzone not to be mean but i hope your forecast is right if it hits new york it will be well west of bermuda and they wont get the full brunt of this killer hurricane...new york people sounds like they want bill so send him that way and destroy new york..spare bermuda..i hope it slams into n carolina and goes right up the east coast that will make me very happy..
Will u RELAX already???? u are, like, panicking all over the blog. Frankly, Bermuda is much more prepared to cope with Bill than NY is; no one in NY is "asking" for Bill to come their way, either. Maybe u should step away from the blog for 1/2 an hour. U know, eat, drink a coffee, take a walk, something, to, u know, EXHALE for a minute. U sound like u are beginning to hyperventilate.

And don't take this as some kind of insult or condescending comment; I'm really starting to get kinda worried about u......
3643. Ossqss
Can anyone explain how different strength/size hurricanes react differently to steering currents?
Quoting mac3821:
Good Morning all! I am new here and have learned a ton in the last week. Very good info from some of you!......bad from others!LOL...Here is my main question....Even if Bill follows the track that puts it pretty close to the East Coast. Can we not expect some dammaging wind in addition to waves and erosion? Also it seems like the tracks have been inching west just a bit every other day or so. I am no weather expert and very untrained so I am interested in your opinions.

Erosion will be a very real concern. Winds will obviously depend on the track. Waves will definitely pick. To what extent is still up for grabs. Timing of the tides will be critical. Eastern seaboard needs to watch this very closely. I have seen big wave action here from hurricanes hundreds of miles south of us.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING
BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 18.7N 56.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 19.9N 58.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 21.7N 61.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 26.0N 65.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 32.0N 68.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 38.5N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 47.0N 58.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
3647. IKE
Thank you very much Ike... I see it doesn't go past 98...
I think the models will shift slightly west when it gents past Bermuda
Good morning all!

A further addition to the marble analogy...

If a storm is weak it is controlled by flow at the low levels.

Surface and low level pressures are generally higher in the mid-latitudes (i.e. Bermuda High) than they are in the tropics (i.e. MDR)

This has to do with the Hadley Cell (rising motion in the tropics from thunderstorms/converging winds (low pressure) and sinking motion and high pressure in mid-latitudes.

Thererfore, a marble will roll more east to west along the trough instead of rolling uphill towards high pressure. So for weak storms they tend to move more westerly.



However, when this marble grows and becomes a monster like Bill, his steering is determined much higher up in the atmophere. High in the atmosphere, the ball will tend to roll from south to north in the Northern Hemisphere.

This has to do with heating and thermal expansion of a column of air near the tropics making higher geopotential heights near the equator, and cooling and thermal contraction of the column making much lower geopotential heights near the poles.

The ball tends to roll from the high heights near the tropics to the lower heights near the poles.
3652. IKE
If Bill goes down the middle of the cone it should be 250 miles west of Bermuda.

"BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...PRIMARILY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.".......


Bermuda could possibly miss the tropical storm force winds.
Quoting CloudGatherer:

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING
BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

BECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY THE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 18.7N 56.3W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 19.9N 58.3W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 21.7N 61.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 26.0N 65.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 32.0N 68.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 38.5N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 47.0N 58.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


now they are also saying it will only turn by friday.WNW it is.Just hoping Bill wont turn to late.But it looks more and more that way.
3654. IKE
Quoting lurkn4yrs:
Thank you very much Ike... I see it doesn't go past 98...


Don't think they have an archive before that year.
Well, thanks, Conch...Mrs. Flood and I enjoy it when you and the guys visit and we do hope to be able to roll you guys, soon...
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Now that is REALLY close to ther antilies
Quoting lurkn4yrs:
Good morning everyone.. Can anyone tell me how to get those 3 or 5 day tracking archive models from past hurricanes..

Thank you..


Good Morning.

Go here, find the year you want to view, click the storm you want to view, and click Graphics Archive.
classic S shape

be back later

3660. 21N71W
Morning All,
Baha, Caicosretiredsailor and any other Bahama area island folk, don't you think that Bill might be getting a little too close for confort?.....
Quoting lovesdanger:
fury i wisg to GOD bill could break through this trough and hit the east coast maybe then people would be happy ..they could have a party and after if they happen to survive can go help collect all the dead bodies ...you guys are sick..this is a killer here worse then hugo who took many lives and will sure be worse then katrina ever was..you dont know how lucky you are...bermuda would love to trade places with you right now..


Now, please stop this, young person. A lot of us who follow this blog are in disaster assistance and recovery, or are members of our local CERTs (Community Emergency Response Teams.) We may be adrenaline-junkies, but we have nothing but love and compassion for disaster survivors/evacuees (we don't like the word "victim"). I may be from the mid-Atlantic, but I have worked everywhere from Texas to N. Dakota and even though I have not worked internationally, I have a great fondness for Canada AND Bermuda and all our fine neighbors in the Western Hemisphere who showed us such compassion and solidarity on 9-11 and who were never given the kudos they deserved for that.
Please remember that resentment creates a hole in your soul and physical disease as well. Please take care of yourself and your spiritual needs. Take care of yourself and your neighbors, go to www.ready.gov and help them prepare a disaster kit. By helping others you will feel much better. I will send out positive thoughts to you to counter your negativity.

Sorry to go on so, everybody. I don't like to sound preachy, hope you all don't gag.

Take care and stay safe.
OSUWXGUY - Great explanation.
BILL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH.

300 is further N than 285, which was last night's heading. I think we are seeing some tugging from that trough.
Ike, glad to see you've kept the "Zep" avatar...suits you
Latest Storm Track:
Aww.. to bad.. thanks though..
3668. jpsb
Quoting BrandiQ:
Can anyone explain to me why bill is going faster now. WNW at 18MPH


Bill does not move by himself, he is carried by the air surrounding him and at lower latitudes assisted by the coriolis effect. If he is moving faster that means the air surrounding him is moving faster too. Hope that helps. Oh, the high to his west is being eroded so there is less resistance to his track too.
Great post OSUWXGUY!!
3670. Ossqss
Quoting TropicTraveler:
OSUWXGUY - Great explanation.


I second that !

A follow up question would be, what if Bill intensifies more than expected to CAT 5. Could he stall rather than move north?
3672. Bonz
"300 is further N than 285, which was last night's heading. I think we are seeing some tugging from that trough."

Yeah. Late last night, he was definitely going WNW. When I looked at this morning's images, I'm seeing more NW movement.

Quoting Ossqss:


I second that !

A follow up question would be, what if Bill intensifies more than expected to CAT 5. Could he stall rather than move north?


No, the stronger a cane is, the less likely it is to stall.
Quoting apocalyps:
now they are also saying it will only turn by friday.WNW it is.Just hoping Bill wont turn to late.But it looks more and more that way.


Apocalyps, you've got it exactly backward. The NHC has been - so far - on the money with its forecasts. The current track, with a slightly delayed turn to the north, is good news all around. It means that the storm center will pass well to the west of Bermuda, perhaps sparing the island entirely from TS-force winds, before recurving sharply out into the Atlantic. The last few model runs have shifted progressively eastward late in the forecast, with coastal Massachusetts slipping to the very edge of the cone. It's also good news for Canucks, with the storm slipping past Nova Scotia, and possibly hitting sparsely-populated Newfoundland in greatly weakened form.

It's still worth monitoring closely for those in the coastal northeast, and the wave action should be something to see. But there's exactly no chance that this storm is going to continue along a WNW track into the weekend.
3675. IKE
Quoting Floodman:
Ike, glad to see you've kept the "Zep" avatar...suits you


Yo bud....Link
Flood whats your take on what some of the repected bloggers, especially last night, mentioned regarding ridge errosion and pinching troughs? We have some freaky weather...some of it is going as planned, but soe like Claudette was not factored...how is Claudette interacting with the fronts and troughs?...etc...I mean we had reputable folks say Bill should turn yesterday between 1-3pm CT...didnt...should have turned at 50...didnt...Bill is still chuggin wnw like he is reading the NHC discussions
Quoting StormW:
Good late morning!

I have a new synopsis posted.

Thanks!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS / HURRICANE BILL AUG. 19, 2009 ISSUED 10:52 A.M.


Thank you Storm. Do you like my graphics, or are they getting annoying?
3678. jpsb
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Good morning all!

A further addition to the marble analogy...

If a storm is weak it is controlled by flow at the low levels.

Surface and low level pressures are generally higher in the mid-latitudes (i.e. Bermuda High) than they are in the tropics (i.e. MDR)

This has to do with the Hadley Cell (rising motion in the tropics from thunderstorms/converging winds (low pressure) and sinking motion and high pressure in mid-latitudes.

Thererfore, a marble will roll more east to west along the trough instead of rolling uphill towards high pressure. So for weak storms they tend to move more westerly.



However, when this marble grows and becomes a monster like Bill, his steering is determined much higher up in the atmophere. High in the atmosphere, the ball will tend to roll from south to north in the Northern Hemisphere.

This has to do with heating and thermal expansion of a column of air near the tropics making higher geopotential heights near the equator, and cooling and thermal contraction of the column making much lower geopotential heights near the poles.

The ball tends to roll from the high heights near the tropics to the lower heights near the poles.

maybe the third time is the charm?
I asked this eariler maybe you can answer it?
"Ok, since I am not a MET I guess it is OK to ast some really dumb questions. I'll try not to ask to many at any one time. Really basic question #1. I have always thought that a high was a dome of air, actually higher in altitude then say a low? Is that correct or is a high siimply denser then a low but at the same (roughly) altitude? thanks"
looking at the circulation in the GOM, the winds are all upper level, correct?
@3678, tried to answer once but post disappeared. you are correct, a high is basically a dome of air...that's why they're called "ridges" and lows are called "troughs"...in fact, many maps you see are actually displaying height, not pressure, even though they show lows and highs...
Quoting lovesdanger:
well baha you think im acting like this i wonder why...could it be because i have family living in bermuda and i care what happens to them...you think that could be the reason..i am well aware of what the people of bermuda can take i been in the steel structured houses many times..a cat 5 would do bermuda in man especially coming withing 50 miles of the island...thanks for your concern i appreciate it...


Hey, I LIVE in the islands, have known pple in Bermuda for 20 years. I'm saying, just relax. Your getting hyper is not going to help ur folks any. Maybe u can be feeding them info from where u are - that can help. But u need to keep yourself focused and on an even keel.

I feel u, man, and can understand what ur going through.

Quoting 21N71W:
Morning All,
Baha, Caicosretiredsailor and any other Bahama area island folk, don't you think that Bill might be getting a little too close for confort?.....
LOL has been for me for a while.... MInd u, I think the NHC guys have got it nailed..... but OTOH, storms from that position have been known to nail the BAhamas / Turks&Caicos to the wall.... So I am following Bill with.... shall I say, INTEREST???? lol

I am just really glad I'm not sitting in Antigua or Barbuda today. I dunno if I'd have enough faith in these newfangled "models" and so on to not board up, just in case....
Quoting Ossqss:


I second that !

A follow up question would be, what if Bill intensifies more than expected to CAT 5. Could he stall rather than move north?


You're all welcome. To be able to see neat things in weather and make sense of them physically is one of the biggest reasaons I love it.

Ossqss-

The more he strengthens the higher up he'll be steered at...which means a higher tendency to more northward.
3683. Ossqss
Quoting rwdobson:


No, the stronger a cane is, the less likely it is to stall.


Can a strong hurricane impact/alter the environment in front of it?
Quoting lurkn4yrs:
Aww.. to bad.. thanks though..


Try this. Goes back to the 1800's...

http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you Storm. Do you like my graphics, or are they getting annoying?


So there is such thing as "busting the trof". Thank you for pointing that slim possibility out.
3686. Grothar
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you Storm. Do you like my graphics, or are they getting annoying?


You always have good graphics. You just had a little trouble yesterday is all. Keep them coming. As I mentioned, they give a picture as to what we are discussing.
Quoting Ossqss:


Can a strong hurricane impact/alter the environment in front of it?


yes, but to a very limited extent.
3688. BGMom
Hello, everyone! I am way up near Atlanta (a bit northwest), so thankfully, I don't have to be afraid of hurricanes, the way many of you do. I am very interested in weather, and got involved reading your comments to Dr. Masters' blog last year. Although there is much I don't understand, I have learned a lot from all of you! Thanks!

If it is ok for me to ask this question, can you tell me what factors go into bringing the tropical weather up my way? Fortunately, we are out of the drought, but in the last few months, we have had a strange thing happening. We have big weather headed RIGHT for us, then it breaks off and goes up and over, or down and under. Is this pollution related? Forgive the ignorance. It is almost as if there is a force field pushing the rain away. Maybe it is just bad luck!

For those of you who need to monitor the hurricanes for your own safety, my prayers are with you the whole season. Opal (or her outer storms) hit us several years ago, and it was scary!!!!!

Thank you for your insight, if you have some for me. If this is too silly to mess with, no worries -- I will just enjoy my weather lessons on the sidelines.
3689. sctonya
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you Storm. Do you like my graphics, or are they getting annoying?


The graphics are great, you asking if he likes them ..... that is the annoying part!!
Folks - could you Please! not quote objectionable posts. If you simply must respond on the blog, Reference the post #, that way the rest of us don't have to read it.
Thanks & Kumbaya
Not that anyone cares, but Guillermo is still a Tropical Storm well to the north of Hawaii
Thanks Storm!
i was correct a powerful hurricane could 'BUST THE TROUGH' thanku Stormw
3694. Ossqss
Quoting rwdobson:


yes, but to a very limited extent.


Thanks all

I was told a while back that the strongest hurricanes in the northern hemisphere always move NW, is that right?
CycloneOz:

Where are you? Did you fly somewhere to cover Bill?
Quoting BGMom:
Hello, everyone! I am way up near Atlanta (a bit northwest), so thankfully, I don't have to be afraid of hurricanes, the way many of you do. I am very interested in weather, and got involved reading your comments to Dr. Masters' blog last year. Although there is much I don't understand, I have learned a lot from all of you! Thanks!

If it is ok for me to ask this question, can you tell me what factors go into bringing the tropical weather up my way? Fortunately, we are out of the drought, but in the last few months, we have had a strange thing happening. We have big weather headed RIGHT for us, then it breaks off and goes up and over, or down and under. Is this pollution related? Forgive the ignorance. It is almost as if there is a force field pushing the rain away. Maybe it is just bad luck!

For those of you who need to monitor the hurricanes for your own safety, my prayers are with you the whole season. Opal (or her outer storms) hit us several years ago, and it was scary!!!!!

Thank you for your insight, if you have some for me. If this is too silly to mess with, no worries -- I will just enjoy my weather lessons on the sidelines.


It could be the Heat Island effecting the storms heading in your area. Atlanta has so much concrete and buildings the heat coming off of them causes strong updrafts that tend to push storms in either direction.

Heat Island Effect

Quoting BGMom:
We have big weather headed RIGHT for us, then it breaks off and goes up and over, or down and under. Is this pollution related? Forgive the ignorance. It is almost as if there is a force field pushing the rain away. Maybe it is just bad luck!


It just seems that way because you notice and remember the storms that miss you like this, but it doesn't happen to Atl any more or less than to other areas. You just notice it when it misses you.

if anything, the heat island effect would help to sustain t'storms...they don't avoid updrafts, they seek them out.
Morning All just thought id pop in and see where we were!
Quoting StormW:
Good late morning!

I have a new synopsis posted.

Thanks!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS / HURRICANE BILL AUG. 19, 2009 ISSUED 10:52 A.M.


Thank You StormW for update, having a very rainy morning here in Mobile. As a matter of fact that is all it has done since Sunday.
DestinJeff's NOAA map showing Bill around Bermuda also shows 3 lows northwest (Great lakes,Hudson Bay & New England)and a high to the Northeast in the Atlantic. I'm thinking this sets up Long Island and Cape Cod for a real battering.
alright read stormw's update and others so im off to earn a living, Be nice
Good morning all..

Is there any update on the possible GOM concern?

Thanks
Hey rare...workin...princess bride is on..WHAT!!..."HELLO! My name is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepair to die! ... My NAME is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepair to die!
Quoting rwdobson:


It just seems that way because you notice and remember the storms that miss you like this, but it doesn't happen to Atl any more or less than to other areas. You just notice it when it misses you.



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=918&tstamp=200803
3708. Dakster
TexasCane - Read StormW blog he dicusses it.
.


hmm...seems like they're not too sure how far west it will go...keeps bouncing back and forth.
3711. jpsb
Quoting stoormfury:
i was correct a powerful hurricane could 'BUST THE TROUGH' thanku Stormw



I am pretty sure told you Yes but rarely. I was kinda shocked at all the flat out No answers you got.
Quoting AllStar17:
Not that anyone cares, but Guillermo is still a Tropical Storm well to the north of Hawaii
Wow, to the NORTH???? I thought that system would be a goner by now......

I looked at it on Monday, but not since then.
Quoting ConchHondros:
Hey rare...workin...princess bride is on..WHAT!!..."HELLO! My name is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepair to die! ... My NAME is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepair to die!

"Have a nice time shtorming da castle!"
3714. Sting13
This is starting to scare me, i checked most models and all but CMC has the storm passing rediculously close to my city, i live on pretty much furthest east point on nova scotia.
Hopefully this changes...
Good Morning. Been reading and catching up a bit. Thanks to all for great explainations and graphics they help me a great deal and I appreciate it. Continue....
Quoting AllStar17:
Blurry, but a good view of the cloud bands on the extreme outer fringes of the storm.

The date on the picture is... april 2008. Quite a sunny day here in Guadeloupe...
Quoting Floodman:

"Have a nice time shtorming da castle!"
I will its 72 degrees and raining. I will leave you with conch who sits in his pj's surrounded by cheetohs watching reruns of laugh in!! I on the other hand have 3 vacant land write ups for the bank.
Quoting jpsb:



I am pretty sure told you Yes but rarely. I was kinda shocked at all the flat out No answers you got.


Ok, can anyone provide examples of this? It's incredibly rare at best.
3720. Grothar
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Good morning all..

Is there any update on the possible GOM concern?

Thanks


There was nothing mentioned in the NHC advisories this morning. But as we know from the week-end, things can flare-up quickly. As of now there does not appear to be anything of immediate concern.
it looks like the wave at 20w could be our next invest
Quoting Floodman:

"Have a nice time shtorming da castle!"


never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!
3723. t1d
Let's just say that Bill does hit a land mass, will the large 30 NM eye that he has been exhibiting generally lead to a greater storm surge? Ike last year had a very large eye and quite a powerful surge despite being only Category 2.
Quoting ConchHondros:
Flood whats your take on what some of the repected bloggers, especially last night, mentioned regarding ridge errosion and pinching troughs? We have some freaky weather...some of it is going as planned, but soe like Claudette was not factored...how is Claudette interacting with the fronts and troughs?...etc...I mean we had reputable folks say Bill should turn yesterday between 1-3pm CT...didnt...should have turned at 50...didnt...Bill is still chuggin wnw like he is reading the NHC discussions


He didn;'t turn yesterday because the feature that was upposed to turn him didn't strengthen/drop like they predicted; I don't thuink Claudette had much a of say in it.
Quoting rareaire:
I will its 72 degrees and raining. I will leave you with conch who sits in his pj's surrounded by cheetohs watching reruns of laugh in!! I on the other hand have 3 vacant land write ups for the bank.


Now rare...you KNOW there arent any pj's involved...
3726. slavp
Quoting t1d:
Let's just say that Bill does hit a land mass, will the large 30 NM eye that he has been exhibiting generally lead to a greater storm surge? Ike last year had a very large eye and quite a powerful surge despite being only Category 2.
I am by no means an expert, but I would have to say yes...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow, to the NORTH???? I thought that system would be a goner by now......

I looked at it on Monday, but not since then.


Yes, it is up near 30 N, and still a Tropical Storm:
3728. Crawls
I'm surprized that Dr. M hasn't posted an update yet?!
Who was saying Bill was going to turn yesterday between 1-3 pm? That was never in anything I ever read. Bill's doing pretty much exactly what was predicted by NHC.
Quoting ConchHondros:


Now rare...you KNOW there arent any pj's involved...


Ow, ow oh my god...I'm poking out my mind's eye...Conchhondros, in flagrante delicto, surroundeed by cheetohs...
There is no concern in the g/mex at this tinme. a piece of enrgy is , but there is nothing imminent for now. even then the area should be watched as the upper levels have become a little more conducive. mslp is high for now but the sst is very hot.
Man rare...you can smell the ozone here...storms last night and more coming
3733. jpsb
Quoting rwdobson:


Ok, can anyone provide examples of this? It's incredibly rare at best.
Oh yes it is rare the only one I can think of off hand is Hurricane Allen. I sited Allen in my answer. Has to be a really big powerful hurricane pumping enough air to build a slight temporary ridge and a weak trof that can't move all the air the hurricane is pumping out. Please do not ask me for details, you now know as much as I know. lol, I am not a MET, I just have a good memory.
3734. 7544
notice in this loop how the north of bill is being pushed down this might be now that bill stsrting to build his own high over himself which at that time he goes where he wants too we didnt see that yesterday but now he is and thats why he just might go further west so expect to see more wobbles in that direction imo Link
Coffee just flew out of my nose Flood...I am now incapacitated...
NEW BLOG
So, Allen from 1980...anything in the 30 years since?
Thank you everyone..
In addition to that, Conch, (back to the weather) he's seems to be following the forecast points pretty well, yes, but as was noted in here yesterday, today tracking forecast may be incrememntally different from yesterday's...in fact it is, because if you look at the ensemble tracks, two of them today show ecoast US hits where yesterday I don't believe there were any...as values for the variables in the model runs change, the track too can change.

I was saying all of last week here that we would klnow more and be about certain of tracking by late yesterday early today and I have to sqy the NHC track looks to be pretty clean
3741. ticka1
New Blog.
Quoting GwadaGeek:

The date on the picture is... april 2008. Quite a sunny day here in Guadeloupe...
One of the things that always amuses me is how absolutely beautiful the weather can be when a storm is travelling. It's as if the storm sucks up all the clouds for hundreds of miles around it.

Good Evening/Morning all.
I see we could have 2 Cat 4's on earth at once.
Hurricane Bill and Typhoon Vamco.
Also, My blog auto updates. I will be adding to it over time, so if you want to know the latest weather in OZ, Have a look, leave a comment.
Cheers AussieStorm
Bill going northwest fast now.
Quoting AllStar17:


Yes, it is up near 30 N, and still a Tropical Storm:


guierrmo has been sheared to death just today by a ULL near hawaii

Bill is not a classic annular hurricane. It may have a few annular characteristics,but thats all. Annular hurricanes are not common. Bill is not going to bust the trough either. Sorry all wishcasters.