WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

im in ur blogz, dishin ur TC storyz *

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:34 PM GMT on July 30, 2007

Guest blogger Margie Kieper

* lolcats, for the uninitiated and my own contribution to the genre: metcat.


As Bob King sympathized with me a couple of weeks ago, "The only thing worse than blogging is not blogging." And what better way to have your cake and eat it too, than to blogbut not blog. So, after doing my part to help save the Shire and its furry-footed forecasters from Mordor: I'm back.

But what TC storyz havent already been addressed ad nauseam? The collective ennui of the lingering ENSO-neutral state of the equatorial East Pacific, the ongoing SAL in the East Atlantic, and anticipating the predictable seasonal predictions of what may lie in-between (an active / busy / above-normal season), is almost enough to impede lifting fingers to keyboard.

Almost.

For those of you who have recovered from the 2005/2006 very public debate regarding hurricanes and global warming, you can pick it up again as the next chapter rolls out today (and why not, since youve all finished that last Harry Potter). An extraordinarily large number of news media were advanced a preview of a paper due to clear the publication embargo today, providing a new twist on analysis of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in relation to SST, and it seems all of them carried a story on it. Most tout a sensational headline about global warming increasing hurricanes, but I like this one, Tropical storms stepping up with climate change, because it appears they actually did read the paper.

Theres sure to be some ripples in the pond, so grab the popcorn and Google News (or whatever your poison) this week to catch the dizzying repartee which might be a lot more palatable if it were limited to pirate talk (arrr!).

Another news trend cropped up the last part of July: fearful the public might forget about the danger of hurricanes making landfall during the hurricane season, rather than just remind us regularly during the off-season, its now become vogue to remind us periodically during the season. So, for anyone who hasnt yet heard this several times recently: a slow July is normal, and doesnt mean were not in for an active season. August starts the day after tomorrow, and its going to be active. Or busier than average. Or above normal. Maybe not as many storms as predicted in May, but still more than normal. Certainly more than the old normal. Possibly more than the post-1994 normal. July to August, as far as hurricanes are concerned is, apparently, like getting in a car with your grandmother behind the wheel, put-putting along slowly in the right lane, then, just as youre about to doze off, suddenly realizing that shes put on some pre-1930s-trendy aviator goggles, is laughing maniacally, and youve swerved into the fast lane, in some crazy freewheeling Fear-and-Loathing road trip.

Im not sure how far this trend can go, but it is conceivable that well be reminded weekly, should any week in August, September, or October go by without a hurricane, that this is an active season. For those of you who want to anticipate how active, tune in to CSU on August 3rd and NOAA on August 9th.

Of course, if you want to know now, you can trust the real hurricane experts from Tulsa, OK:
Tropical developments suggest a hurricane may come ''very near the East Coast of Florida early in the 11- to 15-day period,'' Stephen Strum, president of Frontier Weather Inc. in Tulsa, Okla., said in a report.
Should someone let them know how accurate the models - er, "tropical developments" - are, two weeks out?...Nah!

Theres an invest in the North Atlantic not worth mentioning unless you planned to golf today in Bermuda which may get a tad more interesting once it is completely ocean-bound and of hardly any interest to anyone.

While there is constant talk about tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic, there is tropical cyclone activity in other basins of the world this week.

The West Pacific has come alive after a late start, with super-typhoon Man-yi in mid-July. Japan is currently in the cross-hairs for Typhoon Usagi, which developed a good underlying structure this weekend (oh, the anticipation of the next decent 37gHz pass!) and will likely be looking impressive 36 hours from now (00Z 1 August). When it does, I'll be keeping you up to date with interesting imagery and news from that part of the globe.

The 2007-2008 Southwest Indian Ocean season has started early with two invests in the neighborhood of Diego Garcia, one of which developed into a short-lived tropical storm.

Finally, borrowing another page from Brendan's book: That Which It Is No Longer Necessary To Blog About is behind us (and, hopefully as well, Maxs days of jokingly referring to me as Agatha). So, I wont be mentioning that either. :)

However, it is a good time to mention that Max has recently started his own hurricane blog, over at Miamis WPLG Local 10, which immediately jumped to the top of my blog roll. A word of warning, Max: the only thing worse than blogging is not blogging.

* * * * * * *

For Jeffs early August hurricane outlook, which came out Sunday, link here.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2502. bobw999
i dont think 99l will develop until it gets into the western caribbean
2504. gthsii
even a broken watch is right twice a day

the prob with that analogy is you NEVER know WHEN it is right.
Thanks for the link drusier. I promise I will study, but will probably never add my opinion on this blog...to dangerous! lol!
NO ONE [at least no one who was vocal] on this blog called for TD3 let alone Chantal. 99L will be dead when the NHC says so.
A reminder..... as the blog comment rate "heats up"

The whole experience here is much more civilized when you set your filter to "average"

remember to USE the small + - buttons to "vote" on usefulness of the comments.

Then, If YOU set your filter at "average" you will not have to see all of the "inane" or argumentative comments which most people don't care for

If you want to see every comment...set YOUR filter to ALL

If you set your filter to "average" and you see a name of someone whose comments you want to see just click on "show"

(Perhaps some people will change their style of commenting after seeing that all their comments are not up to average)
CRS
is there any more models due out anytime soon?
Chantel looks more like a subtropical storm with warm front northeast and cold front like tail southward
2513. bobw999
NO ONE [at least no one who was vocal] on this blog called for TD3 let alone Chantal. 99L will be dead when the NHC says so.

ummm, did you read my blog yesterday? i called for subtropical storm chantal so i was partly right
whatever jp. Your selective memory is workin overtime today I see.

I'm not discussing this anymore w/ ya.
2515. Drakoen
the NHC may have stopped running their models on 99L becuase the 06z runs have not come out yet.
2516. ryang
99L, is undergoing an eyewall replacement...LOL

99L

The system is trying to form convection over the LLC, and there isn't as much dry air as you think.

wv

See? Moisture around the islands, as well!
MHO - Today will be exactly like yesterday. It will get ragged throughout the day, then fire up at nite... I imagine tomorrow will be fairly similar. There will probably be a lot of dung slinging around the blog until it decides what its gonna do, that won't be decided for a couple of days.
Thanks, Niceville!

...99L is still an invest according to the Navy, and it still could develop! Katrina had many fooled, too. It was written off several times.
nothing

ummm, did you read my blog yesterday? i called for subtropical storm chantal so i was partly right

Actually no. I was away from the computer yesterday.
I know where the tropical storm is located way up north. Where is 98L and 99L located at. I see a wave just north of the Dominican Republic. Is that 98L or 99L? Then there is another one west of the Lesser Antillies. Looks like it is breaking up? Please help because I'm not a weather expert but I do live in Florida.
If I were in the Islands I would be concerned, 99L could blow up again overnight, the circulation is in tact and if the only thing that effecting it is some dry air, not enough to destroy it....yet it is slowing development not stopping it and the NHC said that it could develop into a TD in a few days not one night.

Low Shear, Warm SSts, Upper level Divergence, Lower Level Convergence sounds favorable to me.
BOBW - Now you do think 99L will develop?
I am confused.
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:01 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.
the NHC may have stopped running their models on 99L becuase the 06z runs have not come out yet.


i just noticed this...hummm calling for TS in 48hrs then not even running models? how much electricity do those super computers use?
Chantel = Bad for sword Fisherman....See Perfect Storm
I have to agree with Ryang.. There isn't as much dry air getting into the system as some think. The WV loop doesn't show the dry air circulating into the west side of the system. I suspect that once again we will see a large flare-up this evening and overnight during D-Max. It just needs to survive until it reaches the Caribbean, then watch out!!
2532. RL3AO
I think the record for August is 7 storms so 8-10 is very very unlikely.
98 -dominican rep.
99 east of antilles
2536. Drakoen
i didn't realize seminloesfan reading the last page that you involved my name in the arguement. Lets get something straight here. Yesterday, i said that the problem with this system developing is the dry air. I said it many times too. We all heard what bobw999 said, and everyone agreed that dry air would be the problem. However some of us did think that the dry air was that strong or would affect the system that much. There is no need to gloat and act the way you did.
guess no one finds this a bit offensive, if I had said something like this, I would have been railroaded and have before for a comment like that. Be back later

So you have said at least 3 times this a.m. I am pretty sure it is time to move on now
Thansk Ivan.
2539. Drakoen
ABNT20 KNHC 311501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



2540. bobw999
98l is now tropical storm chantal

i dont think 99l will develop until it reaches the western caribbean
There is no 98L, that is now Chantal... next invest will be 90L
Dry air is not getting in there? Look at the latest floater WV loop...

Link

The "grey" or "white" stuff working into the circulation is dry air, folks. It's entraining from the NW side of the complex and the convection continues to break down. That's classic dry air intrusion...

I'm not saying it can't survive, but you have to admit the facts of the current climatology...
2543. bobw999
Posted By: MonsterHCane at 11:06 AM EDT on July 31, 2007.
Posted By: bobw999 at 3:01 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.

NO ONE [at least no one who was vocal] on this blog called for TD3 let alone Chantal. 99L will be dead when the NHC says so.

ummm, did you read my blog yesterday? i called for subtropical storm chantal so i was partly right


Wow want a cookie or trophy for being right?


that wasnt necessary

im not trying to rub it in anyones faces
IF 98L is now Chantal then what is the wave north of the DR?

I say:

8 form in august
6 form in september
4 form in october
1 forms after that



It doesn't matter how many. STEERING CURRENTS are what matters.
2546. 900MB
ALERT-
What do people make of the Blob off of the NC/SC coast???
It's a 1008 low, and could follow in the path of Chantal (there is a high pressure beginning to build off East Coast, so if something did get brewing it would likely be further West)
Thought?
It just needs to survive until it reaches the Caribbean, then watch out!!

That's not accurate. I'll repeat what I said yesterday. Storms that are not already well organized before entering the eastern Carribean tend not to develope untill or unless they survive long enough to get to the western Carribean.
2550. ryang
If I were in the Islands I would be concerned, 99L could blow up again overnight, the circulation is in tact and if the only thing that effecting it is some dry air, not enough to destroy it....yet it is slowing development not stopping it and the NHC said that it could develop into a TD in a few days not one night.

Yes, I'm right in front the system, it's about 600 miles east of me. I'm Watching it very closely.
Posted By: gthsii at 10:59 AM EDT on July 31, 2007.
even a broken watch is right twice a day
the prob with that analogy is you NEVER know WHEN it is right.


That is true. You have the same problem with the predictions handed out on this blog!!. So the analogy accurately applies to the blog also.
2552. RL3AO
99L, a major blow up of convection on the southeast side!

Only needs 10 more to be a depression.
So if I understand this correct 99L is out way west of the Antillies. The little wave north of the Dominican Republic is nothing yet?
good morning again

Just a quick stop in the blog.
99L is not looking good at this time and the center is devoid of convection in the NW quad.
The circulation is still healthy though and if it makes it until 6 today we should expect to see a new round of deep convection fire up this evening.

The system now has a fairly narrow window within which to develop IMO.
The center is near 11.6N and 51W and history has shown that unless it develops before reaching 63W it is unlikely to do so before reaching the W Caribbean.

Only 7 or 8 systems have developed in the E Caribbean within the last 30 years ( Ernesto was one last year )and most were late season in Oct on the tail end of cold fronts.

In conclusion,I believe that 99L has until about 5 pm tomorrow to become TD and after that it will be in the E Caribbean which is a very hostile place for a weak system and could spell its demise.
2556. Drakoen
This system should at least go through one diurnal max before if it does die out today, thats the last chance i give it.
Anything forming off N.C. will get sucked up in the path Chantel carves out.
2558. Drakoen
Unofficial forecast track.
Joe Bastardi again thinks this likely doesn't survive, mainly due to reduced convergence and increased shear due strong LL Easterlies in Caribbean due to semi-permanent Colombian heat low and its low latitude, and even if it develops, he thinks it is more a threat to Central America than the US.

(From PPV web site, so no link)
Posted By: seminolesfan at 3:01 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.

I'm not discussing this anymore w/ ya.
i declare 99L dead.
Yeah Byrd, DR wave is nothing at this point
The NHC is still watching it based on their latest TWO. It seems like TD4 out of 99L is not completely out of the question, but becoming increasingly unlikely.
Note:Tuesday morning update to blog above
CRS
2566. Drakoen
if we look at the broader picture yes there is deep convection to the SE side of the COC, but it has yet to reach the coc. We need to see more of a wrapping feature with the convection in that area, before we get concerned.
Hey is that Hailey's Comet up there? Look Belize City!
What is the wind shear over the GOM right now? There's a fairly large flare up moving off of LA coast this morning.
i declare 99L dead.



I think 99L is just pining for the fjords.


Well, it has a day and a half left per the John Hope Rule, if it isn't at least a depression when it reaches the islands, it won't become one before the Western Caribbean.
hmmmmmm.....
ryang, moonlightcowboy, sporteguy03, VegasRain, RL3AO, MrNiceville, kmanislander

it's actually quite relaxed in here with filter set to average......... grin
CRS
The GOM would have a long way to go, besides the wind shear there is a week high pressure there in the SE Gulf. That sagging front is producing the convection, enhanced by the High
IS the DR wave look like it could become something?
2576. dewfree
Chantal became a tropical storm by means of NHC designation only. Some of the pro sites were calling it a subtropical wave only .
NHC ins't OGd remeber that ,but when they say something is then the designation goes where they tell it .Doesn't mean that they were correct in thier assumptions.Just means they have the power.
The national weather service is the same way . A tornadoe warning is when they say it is and that is it.DOesnt matter if a trained spotter has seen it .It doesnt get designated untill they choose it.Power in weather is something you will see from time to time.
Doesnt means they are right and doesn't mean they are wrong,just measn they have the power to do it.
Just wanted to remind you'all of this!!!.

2577. ryang
There's a upper level high near the wave, could soon enhance convection.

shear

Also, look at the wave around 30W...
CRS - How do you set the filter?
The heaviest convection is some 200 miles removed to the S of the center and is not, IMO, of any assistance to 99L in its current attempt to organise
2580. bobw999
MonsterHCane none taken i can handle a joke now and than
2581. ryang
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...LOCATED ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH OF
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT33 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
The system is moving into the dry air, I agree, but I don't think it is pulling it into the circulation center. No doubt that the north side is dealing with dry air. I doubt though that it is dry enough to completely kill the system. It was dealing with the dry air last night as well and really picked up some heavy convection. Dewpoints in the Windward Islands are running between 73 and 77 degrees. Pretty moist air.
IS the DR wave look like it could become something?

Small, disorganized not a concern IMO
2584. IKE
Posted By: dewfree at 10:24 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
Chantal became a tropical storm by means of NHC designation only. Some of the pro sites were calling it a subtropical wave only .
NHC ins't OGd remeber that ,but when they say something is then the designation goes where they tell it .Doesn't mean that they were correct in thier assumptions.Just means they have the power.
The national weather service is the same way . A tornadoe warning is when they say it is and that is it.DOesnt matter if a trained spotter has seen it .It doesnt get designated untill they choose it.Power in weather is something you will see from time to time.
Doesnt means they are right and doesn't mean they are wrong,just measn they have the power to do it.
Just wanted to remind you'all of this!!!.


How can it not mean the NHC is correct?????
2585. Drakoen
they haven't cancelled the flight yet
NOUS42 KNHC 301330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 30 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-068

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 01/1800Z NEAR 12N 57W.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Posted By: kmanislander at 3:25 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.
The heaviest convection is some 200 miles removed to the S of the center and is not, IMO, of any assistance to 99L in its current attempt to organise


Yup, that convection is more a part of the ITCZ than 99L.
2588. RL3AO
Well, the NHC still sees something in the system.
Wouldn't write off 99L just yet might just be going through a stage, if it survives another 24 hours I think it might at least become a TD.
lowerbamagirl

go up above where you see:

Viewing Comments: 2551 - 2580 Sort Comments: Newest First Order Posted Filter

and set filter to "average"

CRS
will BBL
2594. IKE
I changed my filter to average...and just eliminated at least a third of the posters!
2597. RL3AO
I still think the area near NC may be the next fish storm.
2599. Bonedog
latest Dorvak on Chantal is 2.7 and dropping already has it pegged at 37knts and 1003mb with no weaking flags on. Went from sheared feature to curved band. She may just pop before the transition.

haha I just had a funny thought... imagine she retains TS or TD long enough to make landfall with Iceland. I bet that would be a first hahaha

like I said it was a funny thought not a prediction so chill before calling me a wacko.
What does Khristina Abernathy think about 99L?
1800Z Invest tomorrow.


I give a 60/40 chance they'll cancel the invest tomorrow. But they have the crew on official notice in case 99L makes a comeback.
By cancel the invest, I mean the tasking for the 53rd WRS.
2604. dewfree
yes iI have seen how chantal looks . I certainly have . I am not disagreeing by all means just made a true statment about the pwoers to be . have a good day .
The eastern Carribean between S.America and Dominican/Haiti (Hispaniola) is a meat grinder for weaker tropical systems. I believe it has something to do with squeezing trade winds between two land masses. 99 won't do anything until it gets into Northwest Carribean if at all
IKE -

How do you change the Filter - and who would it get rid of - I am trying to learn - not get bombarded by crazy people.

Thanks!
CRS - does that mean that I'm getting through, or I'm being filtered out? I guess if you respond, I'm getting through...
2612. IKE
Posted By: WizardApprentice at 10:36 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
she didn't say anything...it was Kevin Robinson who talked about it. He said it's moving into less favorable conditions with higher shear.


He's wrong...it's in 5-10 knots of shear.

But, it's in 100 knots of dry air.
Hey do you guys think Chantal will develop or not?

lol Chantal has already developed.
2616. IKE
Posted By: NoNamePub at 10:37 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
IKE -

How do you change the Filter - and who would it get rid of - I am trying to learn - not get bombarded by crazy people.

Thanks!


It's right above/below the most recent comment..on the right side of the page.
MrNiceville

yep.... ain't it nice

CRS
Early this morning I thought 99L was going to make it and now it looks to me that it is opening up to a wave.

The eastern Carribean between S.America and Dominican/Haiti (Hispaniola) is a meat grinder for weaker tropical systems. I believe it has something to do with squeezing trade winds between two land masses. 99 won't do anything until it gets into Northwest Carribean if at all
.

Close, my unprofessional understanding (and where the John Hope rule of no development before the islands means no development until Western Carib) is that heat low, especially earlier in season, when sun heats landmass the most, forms near Equator in Colombia, and the trade winds in the Caribbean, especially the Southern Caribbean, are strong. So any shallow system is moving quickly, which enhances the relative shear. The heat low also tries to pull air towards itself, robbing inflow from systems in the SE Caribbean.
2621. dewfree
What gets me is this . If chantal was considered to be this morn a tropical storm then why did the pro sites wait untill the designation to change thiers.That actually is interesting,isn't It?
I'm not CRAZY! I JUST FORGOT TO TAKE MY PROZAC!!!
2623. guygee
Posted By: IKE at 3:31 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.
"I changed my filter to average...and just eliminated at least a third of the posters!"

I set my filter to "Best" and I still see you.

The system is set up so you always see your own posts regardless of the filter settings.

Also gthsii, weatherguy03, SJ, Caymanite, homegirl and a couple of others.

Blob politics, LOL!
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1800Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 01/1530Z C. 02/1000Z
D. 13.0N 57.0W D. 13.5N 61.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Seems the NHC is still interested in it, doesn't look like they will cancel it.
Wow - makes a difference - will give my thumb a rest from all that scrolling...

On to more germane subjects...

Everyone is concentrating on the convection SE of 99L. But, looking at the WV, isn't there a wedge of drier air between the "COC" (I use that term loosely) in the complex and the convection to the SE? I don't think that there's much chance of the convection getting wrapped in unless that wedge dissipates (somehow).

Comments?
2628. IKE
Posted By: dewfree at 10:40 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
What gets me is this . If chantal was considered to be this morn a tropical storm then why did the pro sites wait untill the designation to change thiers.That actually is interesting,isn't It?


Because the NHC is the official word on classification of systems.
2631. IKE
Posted By: WizardApprentice at 10:42 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
I TOLD YOU IT WOULD GO POOF!!!

Everyone here this morning flamed me for saying it'd go poof...and I was right...they were wrong..


Congrats...you win a box of Cheerios.
Ike - be nice - give him a juice box, too...
Close, my unprofessional understanding (and where the John Hope rule of no development before the islands means no development until Western Carib) is that heat low, especially earlier in season, when sun heats landmass the most, forms near Equator in Colombia, and the trade winds in the Caribbean, especially the Southern Caribbean, are strong. So any shallow system is moving quickly, which enhances the relative shear. The heat low also tries to pull air towards itself, robbing inflow from systems in the SE Caribbean.


That makes sense. We in S. Florida have the same effect with our seabreeze/landbreeze interaction.
2634. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 10:45 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
Ike - be nice - give him a juice box, too...


Okay...plus a bonus prize of a seedless watermelon!!!!!!
Ike - be nice - give him a juice box, too...

Really? The only thing I like to drink with cereal is milk.
I'll get that - let me run down to the W/D - brb...
Dewfree - interesting comment. A couple of months ago there was a tornado that struck a Wal-Mart in Mobile and the news said it couldn't be a tornado because a watch or warning had never been posted! It took off part of the roof and injured six!
2638. Drakoen
oh well..
WTF? What is with people and this "poof" thing? lol. Convection is not always a stable entity. It increases at the maximums and decreases at the minimums (usuallly). I have seen invests traverse the entire atlantic void of any convection (just a low level swirl) and still turn into formidable cyclones. It just needs the right conditions. Just because 99L lacks significant, well placed convection right now does not mean this is the end of it.
Okay...plus a bonus prize of a seedless watermelon!!!!!!

don't forget the 50cents worth gas at the local Shell station
99L = the Floyd Patterson of tropical weather...
ky, you remember watching TD10 two years ago?

Not that 99 will amount to anything, but ky is correct, waves travel as naked squirrels☺ all the time
Any reactions to:
Tuesday morning update to blog above
[quote]
Finally, there appears to be some potential for development - really, more potential than 99L, as there is quite a lot of energy in this area of disturbed weather - at the tail of the trough coming off the East Coast, east of Georgia and the Carolinas, but again, a fish spinner.
[end quote]
CRS
2645. Drakoen
JP i haven't written it of. Any have the TCHP map please? If the system can get going dry air won't be a concern as it can feed of the warm water.TCP still has faith in 99L.
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lol. i know i know jp.
Floyd Patterson? I don't get it.
Afternoon jp :~)

I really don't care if anyone rights off 99l for reasons of dry air, impending shear, or some other data point, but as has been said, convection comes and goes, but as long as there is a wave, it has some potential.
ok guys i have made i long comprhensive update on blog conerning the tropics. Please feel free to drop by and read it and let me know what you think about what i am doing right and what i am doing wrong. It is probabaly the bigest blog i have done so far so enjoy!
2652. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 10:48 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
oh well..


RIP 99L?????

Pitiful looking.
2653. IKE
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 10:50 AM CDT on July 31, 2007.
Okay...plus a bonus prize of a seedless watermelon!!!!!!

don't forget the 50cents worth gas at the local Shell station


That'll help!!!
With over 20 years of studying canes,I am not ready to write off 99L just yet.I have seen to many times systems like this end up turning into cyclones.Not that this one will,But it is not dead as of now.
2655. Drakoen
Does anyone out there know if the upper level winds are favorable for dev of that blob in the GOM?
If 99 takes a little more northwestward track it could easily be a repeat of td10/05.
whitewabit
....set your filter to "average"
(sorry to sound like a broken record)
CRS
2661. Drakoen
this could be a reason why the convection is minimal (aside from the dry air...). Look at the TCHP in the current area that it is in.

Alright y'all back to work for me.

In the meantime...If you are interested in learning about tropical weather and weather in general there are some great sites out there. Many can be found from here.

See y'all later!
read the admin notice just above the comments box...not my words they are Dr Masters...
2667. RL3AO
If 99 takes a little more northwestward track it could easily be a repeat of td10/05.

Hmm...lets just hope its remnants don't redevelop this time.
WizardAprrentice- We get your point. You think that 99L is going poof. You don't need to say it 500,000 times.
2670. flsky
Pressure at 1011 here in Daytona Beach Shores, FL. Birds are flying low over the river. I have a bird feeder and a squirrel feeder and no one has shown up today (which NEVER happens). Feels like a storm is on the way....
Still some potential pts out there. Four and five could happen within the next few days. If you picked 15-16 it better get active. Looks like 12-13 could be the number. Four in Augest Five in Sept. One in Oct. Just having fun.
Does anyone out there know if the upper level winds are favorable for dev of that blob in the GOM?

Conditions are expected to improve(according to our local forecast) as high builds in behind low near N.C. moves N.E. and stalled coldfront washes out. If I still lived in Pensacola i'd be watching that one closely.
Drak - so you think that once it gets beyond 55W, it might (use of the diminutive, not perjorative) pick up a little more convection? That's a "fer piece" for something moving rough 1 degree (57 nm) every 5-7 hours...
2676. msphar
99L Falling apart better than I had hoped for today.
2677. Drakoen
yea it could regain the convection once it gets closer to the lesser Antilles. Oh here are the model plots some of the are 12z and some of the are 06z don't know why they are mixed but...'
I am also wondering about the weather that has blown up in the GOM south of MS and AL. Could it become anything?
The cmc has both 99L and the blob in the gom developing.
Drak, what are the links to those plots and the GFDL animation that you access? I can't seem to google them. I look to Crown for most of my "current conditions" info - any better sites to use?
seems interesting that the CLP5 seems consistent in moving this system further North
2682. Drakoen
MrNiceville i don't know what the site it. I saw it on a blog.
Four in Augest Five in Sept. One in Oct.

Rmember though that last year had no activity in October because of El Nino; La Nina has the opposite effect, enhancing activity in the Caribbean (hence why 1998 had Mitch and 1999 had Lenny). I would in fact say that October might be as active as September plus a few in November (which has been the trend in years with a La Nina, very active late seasons, mainly because most La Nina storms develop around the Caribbean and the Caribbean doesn't really become the hotspot for development until October or late September). 2005 was similar, even though it had a very late La Nina develop (5 storms in August, 5 in September and 7 in October; climatologically, November is also more active than June or July, as seen here).
The CLP5 is a climatological model, it's forecast is based solely on past storms and not on the atmospheric conditions.
I just saw the 00z CMC and ROFLMHO!!! Like thats gonna happen! with the GOM blob AND 99L.. I tell ya the CMC is on somthing bad.
2687. Drakoen
I found the link...
Link
NEW BLOG
Your right. About 99 it has been around for three day doubt if it will just disapear.
no biloxi shear is too high it probably will not develop. if you want more info just click on my name and read my tropical weather blog for today.
Rmember though that last year had no activity in October because of El Nino; La Nina has the opposite effect, enhancing activity in the Caribbean (hence why 1998 had Mitch and 1999 had Lenny)......


Look for development north of Carrib. islands, and southern Gulf of Mexico. Those areas are usually hotspots following El Nino years. Those will be your Aug/Sept areas. Then western Carribean later in the season.









ok - so i don't mean to beat a dead horse but anyone have a clue as to whether or not it's cool to go to Key West this weekend? I live in Savannah and was being taken down there for my b/day by hubby - however, don't really want to go if there is a threat...
Tomorrow arent the recon's flying into 99l?


One is scheduled to arrive at 1800Z, but I'd say there is a better than even chance that they cancel it tomorrow morning, unless it looks better then than it does now.


Recall a recon flight was scheduled for 98L/now TS Chantal on Sunday when it was East of Bahamas, and they cancelled that flight.

Forecast for S. Fl is nice this weekend. 99 woulnd't be here(if at all) till middle of next week.
Good Morning TexasC1 & Drakoen
Very cool - thank you ivan...saw something out in the gulf too that looks a bit weird on one of the forecast models - was also afraid of getting some weird thing this way from the back...
Link

Check this link out melwerle
STL do we have any positive MDO la nina years to compare to?
Bring up the 12Z CMC run from July 28th for 850mb vorticity. Now set it forward 72 hours. This would be its approximate prediction for current conditions. I would say it's pretty darn close to what we are actually seeing.
Posted By: hosweather at 4:39 PM GMT on July 31, 2007.
Bring up the 12Z CMC run from July 28th for 850mb vorticity. Now set it forward 72 hours. This would be its approximate prediction for current conditions. I would say it's pretty darn close to what we are actually seeing.


That is truly frightening, the CMC is right?? Even partially??
Even if 99 develops now, It will get shredded in the eastern Carribean. 99 won't do much until gets past Puerto Rico.
Don't look now,But 99L is on it's way back!
We may have TD4 When recon gets out there this afternoon.
Is this site working?
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS FORMED UNDERNEATH VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 58.0W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1010.0 MB. WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.
FURTHERMORE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 84F/29C IN THE
AREA CAN ENHANCE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 021300Z AUG 2007.//
THANKS for the laugh and the recall of decades old Weekend Updates with Chevy Chase ... The Generaliisimo was dead then, and he's still dead. Now THAT's reporting that stands the test of time.