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Ike's record storm surge pushing into Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:26 PM GMT on September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.


Figure 1. Experimental wind field analysis for Ike at 9:30 am EDT 09/12/08. The area of hurricane force winds is inside the heavy black line where the yellow color begins (64 knots). The area of tropical storm force winds is inside the heavy black line at 35 knots (turquoise colors). The total Integrated Kinetic Energy was 149 Terajoules, which makes Ike's storm surge potential a 5.4 on a scale of 1 to 6. Image credit: NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

The forecast
Ike's small inner eyewall has completely collapsed, leaving Ike with no eyewall. Creation of a new eyewall is being hampered by some dry air to the storm's west, and the presence of about 10 knots of wind shear. However, Ike is beginning to look better organized on satellite imagery, and may still intensify by 5-10 mph before landfall. Ike will not inflict extreme wind damage like Katrina's or Rita's. The big story with Ike will be the storm surge.

Ike's winds
An oil rig in Ike's path measured sustained winds of 125 mph, at 6:45 am CDT. Lower winds of 105 mph were occurring at the surface, since the rig is at an elevation of 400 feet. The Hurricane Hunters are still reporting maximum winds of 105 mph over a large region of the surface.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides along the Mississippi coast peaked at about 6 feet above normal yesterday, with a 7 foot storm tide observed on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. At 10 am CDT, storm tides of 5-6 feet were being seen in western Louisiana, and were 5 feet at Freeport, Texas, and 5.5 feet at Galveston. According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 6 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 2 to 5 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 12 to 15 feet

Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Island... ... 15 to 20 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--by about 4 pm CDT today, and remain that strong for about 24 hours. Category 1 hurricane force winds of about 75-85 mph will affect the city for about an 8-hour period from midnight to 8 am on Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage. The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

Winds and damage in Houston should will be slightly greater than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. Alica had higher winds at landfall, but was a smaller storm that weakened relatively quickly inland. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm. During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph. The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably be sustained at 85-90 mph at Houston Hobby, and 75-80 mph at Houston International Airport.

A good guess on what kind of winds inland areas will experience can be had by using the Inland Wind Model developed by NOAA scientists Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan. This simple model shows the expected winds inland from the coast for the five Category hurricanes moving at different speeds. Plotted below (Figure 2) is the inland wind model plot that best fits the type of winds I expect will penetrate inland from Ike. I think Ike will be a strong Category 2 hurricane moving at about 15 mph at landfall, but the hurricane's strongest winds will penetrate farther inland than is typical due to the huge size of the storm. Thus, I picked a slightly stronger storm with a higher forward speed to base my inland wind estimate on. I expect hurricane force winds of 74 mph will penetrate about 110 miles inland, near the cities of Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston, and not quite reaching Lufkin. We can expect Ike to cause the largest and longest-lived power outage in Texas history, with power knocked out along a 200-mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana extending 300 miles inland to I-20. Dallas will be at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.


Figure 2. Inland penetration of tropical storm and hurricane force winds from a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds moving perpendicular to the Gulf Coast at a forward speed of 17 mph. Image credit: NOAA.

Tornadoes from Ike
Texas hurricanes have a history of producing strong tornadoes. Hurricane Alica spawned 23 tornadoes when it hit, including one strong F2 tornado. Hurricane Carla of 1961 unleashed 26 tornadoes, including the only violent F4 tornado ever spawned by a hurricane. The tornado hit Galveston, killing between 6 and 12 people.

Rain
Heavy rain from Ike will be the least of Texas' concerns, since the hurricane is not expected to stall, and will move quickly northwards out of the state by Sunday. The latest NOAA/HPC rain forecast (Figure 3) predicts the swath of heaviest rains of six inches or more will cover an area about 100 miles square.


Figure 3. Predicted 5-day rainfall totals along the path of Ike, beginning at 8am EDT Friday September 12, 2008. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

For more information
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather
Port Arthur, TX weather
Houston, TX weather
Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast
Long-range radar out of Galveston, TX
wundermap of weather stations near Ike
Buoy observations near Ike from the National Data Buoy Center.

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) is located a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic. Satellite loops show that 91L's heavy thunderstorm has shown a modest increase this morning, but these thunderstorm are not well organized and cover a limited area. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed 91L, but last night's pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and none is apparent on visible satellite imagery.

The disturbance is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. There is an upper-level low pressure just to the west of 91L that is creating shear and pumping dry air into the system, similar to the situation Hanna had to deal with in its formative stages. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Monday, which may allow some gradual development. None of the models are developing 91L, but the Bahamas can expect heavy rain and strong gusty wind over the next three days as 91L tracks west-northwest towards the east coast of Florida. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

Jeff Masters
Very angry surf
Very angry surf
Pensacola Beach when Ike was hundreds of miles south. And still no rain this week.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Buoygraph showing multiple buoys with very low pressure:


1003. Vero1
Galveston Conference with Grandma
1004. FLdewey
Quoting myway:


Oil is down. Wholesale gas (refined) is up. The problem is not oil. It is refining.


Exactly. I think it depends on where you live - gas is over $5 in Tallahassee and in Orlando many stations are limiting you to 10 gallons. Supply will catch up but people get all freaked out.

It's still 3.69 in Palm Bay which is only .20 more than yesterday.
Quoting tim73:
"It just water, man".

That is going to be the UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR! Anyway, hope that stupid man survives but seems unlikely.

Homeland Security chief was quoted by Fox News moments ago, "100 000 homes could be destroyed".


CNN updated that guys story and stated that he actually changed his mind and ended up evacuating shortly after that comment was made. He'll be one of the lucky ones.
Scoo, what part of Houston are you in?
1007. DowdATC
Fox News actually just reported that Officials are requesting for anyone staying behind in evac areas to right their SS# on their arms for later id purposes.

I pray for the first responders who will have to do search and recovery operations after this is over. PTSD will be a big problem just like after Katrina.
Galveston Webcam still operating.

Link sure has changed since this morning.
What is wrong with the mayor of Galveston?
1010. CCkid00
Quoting Newport62:


I think that should be done off blog if anyone wants to join you....As you believe in prayer, there are many that don't so this shouldn't be the place for that. Thanks-

i'd bet that if you were in Galveston late tonight, YOU would even believe in prayer. someone is trying to do something good, and there is ALWAYS, ALWAYS negative naysayers.
1011. BA
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
I can't believe that half of Galveston Island is still there. This is absolutely ridiculous!! It's unacceptable, and if this turns out to be the disaster that I believe it will, and that many are considering it will be, then I think some major figures in the City of Galveston, the State of Texas, and Local Authorities are going to be fired.

T


if they were surfers they would have understood how bad this was going to be...it's called fetch

strong winds across the whole gulf of mexico for such a long period of time = big waves and big surge
Quoting presslord:
sorry....but I can't buy into the bashing of the Galveston or State of Texas officials....anyone staying made an informed decision to do so...God bless 'em...but they made their beds...

Amen Press.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ive.. Ive just seen some of the most idiotic thing Ive ever seen on the news from Galveston.
They're holding Hurricane Party's, drinking, right on the beach were the storm surge's going to be the worse. The sad thing is, they won't be alive come Saturday.

I remember one hurricane party in MS IN 69.can't find any of them that went to ask them how it was?????????
Quoting CatastrophicDL:


I went out last night at midnight to get gas, afraid the price would go up. Price had actually dropped 5 cents a gallon from 2 hours earlier.


rose .30 today here in s. ms. to just below $4. supposed to be over $5 by sunday.
1016. Greyelf
Video with guy in bear suit at seawall. Link
Anyone here from Lake Charles area? I evacuated and would like to find out what the conditions are right now in that area.
$5 gas??????? that is panic mode isn't it?
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


you would think that. are you rooting for this??

15-20 Max, proably not even that.
unless Ike strengthens to a cat3 which seems all but impossible now.
we are talking about barely a cat2 right now. and that may be being
generous by Ikes satellight presentation.




It doesnt even matter if it weakens to a TS. As long as it still remains large and keeps that storm surge catastrophic damage is possible.
Just spoke with my Brother in Law. He's a refinery manager on Huston ship channel. They've got fifty or so people standing by in a strong building just waiting.

God speed Ed
Im here in friendswood and the winds are really picking up im in norther galveston county not suppose to get surge but worried bout the wind and rain!!
Just watching the live footage from FOX! I cant believe these people that the media are interviewing. They have their camera w/ them to take pictures of the water??? I just do not get it... This is not a time to be happy and jovial. Im so worried for all of these people that did not leave. I also worry about all of the pets and livestock that were not evacuated. They will all drown.
This is going to be such a sad sad story.
Newport62...take it up with Jeff Masters...he mentions prayer all the time.....
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

They waited entirely too long.. That wasn't said until yesterday.. That gives people 24 Hours (Or Less) to pack up their lives and leave. I'm speaking for the people who are unaware, and have no knowledge of Hurricanes. They see a Category 2, and don't think it's a big deal.. That's my point.. With IKE, it's much different.. you're looking at a Cat 5 Surge..

They don't realize this and the local authorities and news teams did nothing but understate the danger until now.. They shouldn't have been worried about being "Politically Correct" and keeping people "Calm"..

They should have stated the truth, and the Possibility of complete inundation. The should have stated what the worst case scenario could be.. They always lecture to "Prepare for the worst and hope for the best", yet they didn't even explain what the Worst could be..

They failed, completely.. Had they done an adequate Job, 50% of Galveston Island would not still be in their homes.. That's ridiculous.


After how many hurricanes have affected the US over the past 4 years, nobody has " no knowledge" of hurricanes, ESPECIALLY after Katrina.

Anyone staying has no remorse from me.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


you would think that. are you rooting for this??

15-20 Max, proably not even that.
unless Ike strengthens to a cat3 which seems all but impossible now.
we are talking about barely a cat2 right now. and that may be being
generous by Ikes satellight presentation.




You don't bother to read Jeff's post do you? THis thing has storm surge worse than Katrina, ever hear of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane huh? Most of that death and destruction came from Storm Surge, and the Storm Surge on this is much worse, the damage if a Storm like that hit today would be estimated at 99 Billion dollars.
I am on Galveston Island next to the 61st street sea wall I will try to E-Mail pic from my blackbarry the hotel is running of back up power and yes I came here to meet Ike
1031. Patrap
Make sure your NOAA radio has Battery Backup and test before you Lose Power.

Once the Local Stations go down the NWS signal may be the only info and most likely the only one you will want at that Point.

Tornado Watch

Statement as of 3:03 PM CDT on September 12, 2008

Tornado Watch 898 remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for the
following locations


La
. Louisiana parishes included are

Acadia Allen Ascension
Assumption Avoyelles Beauregard
Calcasieu Cameron East Baton Rouge
East Feliciana Evangeline Iberia
Iberville Jefferson Jefferson Davis
Lafayette Lafourche Livingston
Orleans Plaquemines Pointe Coupee
Rapides St. Bernard St. Charles
St. Helena St. James St. John The Baptist
St. Landry St. Martin St. Mary
St. Tammany Tangipahoa Terrebonne
Vermilion Vernon Washington



1032. bjdsrq
CNN got the number of that stranded freighter and called the Capt., trying to put him on the air with dumb questions. They pissed him off big time. LOL idiots
1033. SEFL
Quoting headshaker:
So you can't charge $2-$3 for a bottled water during a storm, but it's OK to charge $5-$6 if you're at a Texans game or the Houston Rodeo.Quoting headshaker:
So you can't charge $2-$3 for a bottled water during a storm, but it's OK to charge $5-$6 if you're at a Texans game or the Houston Rodeo.


Maybe we should just go to price controls....oh wait....Jimmy Carter found out that does not work!!
Thank God for First responders. Your not paid enough.
Quoting presslord:
Newport62...take it up with Jeff Masters...he mentions prayer all the time.....


Mentioning praying for people is fine but trying to organize a moment of prayer on a blog I don't agree with.
Thanks for the laugh, Greyelf. Gonna show my sons when they get home from school.
gas leaks, house fire, high water rescues in Galveston. Mayor says that they've provided a last resort shelter, but as soon as the storm passes everyone will have to go back to their homes. Does she really think there will be something to go back to?
fine...then don't participate....
1039. IKE
22 NM east Of Galveston....weather is beginning to go down hill in SE Texas....

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 17.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 15 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 149 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.31 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.19 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Quoting Brillig:


Can you explain to me how warning that if you choose to stay you face certain death is understating things?

The NHC said that, but I don't believe I have heard anything from state/local officials or from any news outlet to this effect. This morning the Houston TV stations were talking about flooding, not drowning. At no point have I heard anyone say the all of Galveston Island is likely to be underwater. Maybe I missed it, but it seems to me that officials and the media have been soft-pedaling this. I saw a fire chief say "get out" but not say "get out or you are highly likely to die."
Quoting KarenRei:
Buoygraph showing multiple buoys with very low pressure:





I recently checked 8 buoys in the Gulf and only 1 showed Hurricane Force winds though.

None of the pressures were below 28.50 either.

but having said that waves are running 20-45
FT in the Gulf near several of the Oil refineries.

I would actually expect the pressure to be lower if IKE were a major storm.

1043. LAgal78
Quoting Greyelf:
Video with guy in bear suit at seawall. Link
thank you! I was looking for that :)
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


you would think that. are you rooting for this??

15-20 Max, proably not even that.
unless Ike strengthens to a cat3 which seems all but impossible now.
we are talking about barely a cat2 right now. and that may be being
generous by Ikes satellight presentation.



Try 20, with isolated surges to 25 and maybe even 30 according to SLOSH.. You must not listen very well.. First of all, It's a strong Category 2.. It's only 6mph from a Cat 3. Second of all, Ike's wind field is so massive that it has piled up the surge of a Category 5 storm.
This is not normal.
It will not be your normal Cat 2 or Cat 3. People don't realize this.
This is going to be bad.
Eye wall is SO CLOSE to closing off now....
Athiest non atheist w/e there is a Hurriance that doesn't care about that lets hope scores of ppl don't die.
Quoting setfree7:
gas leaks, house fire, high water rescues in Galveston. Mayor says that they've provided a last resort shelter, but as soon as the storm passes everyone will have to go back to their homes. Does she really think there will be something to go back to?


She's in her own separate state of reality.
At the time of the 1900 storm the highest point in the city of Galveston was only 8.7 ft (2.7 m) above sea level.[7] The hurricane had brought with it a storm surge of over 15 ft (4.6 m) - Wikipedia on what caused the damage in the Galveston Hurricane, and that was only 15 ft, if its 20 feet TropicalNonsense, (which you need to realize WINDS DON'T cause the worse destruction in Hurricanes.) then were talking really bad destruction.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It doesnt even matter if it weakens to a TS. As long as it still remains large and keeps that storm surge catastrophic damage is possible.


A good example is tropical storm Isodore in 2002.
Quoting melianthus:
A life without the right to judge for yourself is not a life worth living IMO.



But if you make the wrong judgement against all advice and find yourself sitting on your roof, you'll gladly accept a lift in a passing rescue helicopter at taxpayer's expense.

I believe that everyone who is rescued from areas where there were mandatory evacuation orders should pay he cost of their rescue, medical treatment, even shelter and food.
Current Galveston live Radar

Link

I heard the McCain-Palin campaign is now blaming Ike on terrorists. Full scale invasion plans of the Carribean are being drawn up to combat the threat...
Hello all, new to posting but I've been lurking for years. This is just amazing. Best of possible luck to anyone choosing to ride this one out. And many thanks to Patrap for the years of helpful info.
1054. DAVEcrp
Finally convinced my mom to leave Southwest Houston.
1055. SEFL
Assuming the "unimaginable" takes place with this storm, who is in line to take the blame?


Could be why all the broadcasters and government officials are predicting the most dire results. If it comes to pass, they are free from blame and if it doesn't they will simply be criticize for crying wolf, which is probably a whole lot better than being blamed for a lot of deaths.

I am not in any way trying to suggest this is not a very dangerous situation, just tossing out an idea why all the high profile people are being sure everyone knows the severity of the situation.
Quoting CCkid00:

i'd bet that if you were in Galveston late tonight, YOU would even believe in prayer. someone is trying to do something good, and there is ALWAYS, ALWAYS negative naysayers.


What harm can come I ask? People would just all do it on their own at home, just at a certain time... when things will start getting rough...You could just astrally project warm fuzzies or surround the people in a vail of white light for protection etc... if God is not your thing...
the guy in the bear suit is crazy.
Fox news reporting that hold outs have been told to write their SSNs on their arms.
1060. Patrap
Soon..

"vary" soon.

Many will only have God to hear them..

Should people on Galvaston Island make a last minute decision to leave, will the road be open for them to evacuate, or does it flood?
1063. o22sail
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ive.. Ive just seen some of the most idiotic thing Ive ever seen on the news from Galveston.
They're holding Hurricane Party's, drinking, right on the beach were the storm surge's going to be the worse. The sad thing is, they won't be alive come Saturday.

I just saw that too.
I felt like I was looking at people who won't be here this time tommorrow.

This is going to be really bad.
1064. WPB99
Quoting myway:


Not in boca. Up .35 since yesterday.


That is Boca, everything is more expensive. In Lantana prices were also down a few cents, 3.67 this morning.
1065. stewman
Houston weather guy just measured the Eye on radar and said was 65' dia that is one huge eye....
Quoting Vortex95:
Athiest non atheist w/e there is a Hurriance that doesn't care about that lets hope scores of ppl don't die.


Amen to that, oh sorry Karen... no offense.
Quoting intunewindchime:
I have an idea, I am not a religious nut but believe in prayer. Could we set a time say 10 pm central and have a moment on the blog where everyone is silent and praying for those touched by IKE? I think it is the best and the least we could do as a group... Many of our friends from this blog are going to be affected and it's time to pull together.


Its ok to say a prayer now and again, religious or not. Anyone against this is just being foolish. Not a big deal to hope for the best for anyone in harms way. A prayer is just a prayer, PRAY TO WHOMEVER or WHATEVER YOU BELIEVE IN, It can't hurt, and who knows, it may help.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:



I recently checked 8 buoys in the Gulf and only 1 showed Hurricane Force winds though.

None of the pressures were below 28.50 either.

but having said that waves are running 20-45
FT in the Gulf near several of the Oil refineries.

I would actually expect the pressure to be lower if IKE were a major storm.



Funny how you must not have check the right buoys, there were reports of 90 kt winds from two separate buoys. Stop trying to downplay this extremely serious situation. 'Only' 20 feet? That's Category 5 storm surge.
1040. WatchingThisOne

I've seen the words certain death used on CNN and in our local paper her in the FL Panhandle to describe what is going to happen to people who stayed behind on Galveston Island, yes they've been warned.
Current Lake Charles LA Live Radar


Link
Quoting presslord:
sorry....but I can't buy into the bashing of the Galveston or State of Texas officials....anyone staying made an informed decision to do so...God bless 'em...but they made their beds...


IMHO these folks fall perfectly under the criteria for involuntary admission to a mental institution. (I work at one) "Documented imminent danger to themselves or others." These folks are psychotically delusional if they believe they can ride out this storm!
Please stick to Ike and the weather issues...
NHC Saying this is CAT-3 solely based on Satellite images!
TRopicalNonsense is indeed talking NOnsense!! LOL!!!
1076. Enola
AMAZING A/V of our heros rescuing a woman and her dog! I'm glad they saved the dog (the woman looks like this was a walk-in-the-park, and even waved to the camera). God bless the U.S. Coast Guard!

Raw video: Coast Guard rescue
Wow..........the ch. 13 folks just said that there is still an estimated 40% of galvestons' residents still on the island. I hope they can make their way to a good concrete stucture somewhere and hope that it stays intact.
Quoting Greyelf:
Video with guy in bear suit at seawall. Link


Stormtop was on earlier saying he was in Galveston in disguise! I think we all know who the bear is! :o)
1080. snotly
40% of the population of Galveston stayed on the island according to abc 13 Houston what would that be in numbers?
Well, I lost a lot of respect for KarenRei with that post. The person wanted to try to do a little something that certainly couldn't hurt, even if it does nothing. Their post could easily have just been ignored, not unfeelingly ridiculed. There was no call for that. :-(

Jo
water lines have been turned off in Galveston to try to maintain some integrity if possible.
1083. LAgal78
Quoting RayRayfromLa:
Just watching the live footage from FOX! I cant believe these people that the media are interviewing. They have their camera w/ them to take pictures of the water??? I just do not get it... This is not a time to be happy and jovial. Im so worried for all of these people that did not leave. I also worry about all of the pets and livestock that were not evacuated. They will all drown.
This is going to be such a sad sad story.
RayRay, I remember for Rita...my uncle took his boat after the storm and went to ride down the highway there...he saw bubbles popping up on the side of the road and couldn't figure out what it was. He stopped to take a closer look, and to his horror found that it was cows...hundreds of them...drowning :(
1084. FLdewey
It's not looking good in Galveston... from the Houston Chronicle.

Quoting AtmosphericWrath:
Eye wall is SO CLOSE to closing off now....


Imagine if Ike had another 18-24 hrs...
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


IMHO these folks fall perfectly under the criteria for involuntary admission to a mental institution. (I work at one) "Documented imminent danger to themselves or others." These folks are psychotically delusional if they believe they can ride out this storm!

You're missing the point.. They don't realize the danger.. Had you told them a Cat 5 Surge was coming, I'm sure most of them would have left. The Authorities did not do that, for sake of being Politically Correct.. We need to alter the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and/or add in the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale, which will do a much better job of informing people of the potential damage to be caused by a Tropical Cyclone.
Quoting snotly:
40% of the population of Galveston stayed on the island according to abc 13 Houston what would that be in numbers?


I think about 29K or so
40 percent of galveston stayed there is on shelter on galveston island for those people it is at BALL HIGH HIGH SCHOOL!!
1090. IKE
Politics...religion....is this a weather blog?
1091. SEFL
Quoting myway:


Oil is down. Wholesale gas (refined) is up. The problem is not oil. It is refining.


At the moment it is local supply that is the issue.
Quoting snotly:
40% of the population of Galveston stayed on the island according to abc 13 Houston what would that be in numbers?

20,000 People. They have a population of 50,000...
From the looks of radar it appears that is eye is becoming better defined. Link

That Galveston mayor is an idiot. Isn't this the same woman who said the island would get a "glancing hit from a Cat.1"??

She just said on a news conference that they couldn't get in to rescue anyone on the westside of the island until the water went down, then they could come help you.

You think....wow. Problem solved....just wait till the water goes down & evrything will be okay.
Quoting 69Viking:
1040. WatchingThisOne

I've seen the words certain death used on CNN and in our local paper her in the FL Panhandle to describe what is going to happen to people who stayed behind on Galveston Island, yes they've been warned.
1096. LAgal78
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

You're missing the point.. They don't realize the danger.. Had you told them a Cat 5 Surge was coming, I'm sure most of them would have left. The Authorities did not do that, for sake of being Politically Correct.. We need to alter the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and/or add in the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale, which will do a much better job of informing people of the potential damage to be caused by a Tropical Cyclone.
So the words "you face certain death" if you do not leave isn't warning enough? Really?
They make it sound like IKE made some sort of drastic turn towards them 3 hours ago!
Quoting o22sail:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ive.. Ive just seen some of the most idiotic thing Ive ever seen on the news from Galveston.
They're holding Hurricane Party's, drinking, right on the beach were the storm surge's going to be the worse. The sad thing is, they won't be alive come Saturday.

I just saw that too.
I felt like I was looking at people who won't be here this time tommorrow.

This is going to be really bad.


Yep. Friend of mine called from there saying he was taking pictures. I told him about writing his ssn on his arm. he high tailed it out of there. Dumb Dumb Dumb
1099. KRL
LATEST IKE IMAGE HQ

I have always noted that a person's "true character" comes out during stressful/dangerous/unforseen circumstances.....(mmmmmmmm)...........That is one of the reasons that the First Responders, including our Coast Guard and military, end up being the greatest heros during these type of catastropic events..
I live just 20 miles southwest of Houston in Sugar Land, which was named the 3rd best city in the U.S. to live in. Sugar Land is in Fort Bend County, which has not been ordering evacuations. In fact, we've been told to ride out the storm because Fort Bend is an evacuation county. People will be driving through here, so to reduce traffic we have been told to stay. Our schools were some of the last ones to be closed. It's becoming extremely difficult to stay at home and get weather information because everyone keeps talking about Galveston and other coastal areas. We are expecting to feel the effects at midnight. Public transportation is closed. We have already had some rain, but we have sustained winds. It is now 3:25. If you have any websites or information for me, please do let me know.
Quoting 69Viking:
1040. WatchingThisOne

I've seen the words certain death used on CNN and in our local paper her in the FL Panhandle to describe what is going to happen to people who stayed behind on Galveston Island, yes they've been warned.

I'm listening to the Galveston press conference live, and the impression I get is that this is not going to be that bad. They just talked about how this is a lesser storm than Rita.
Quoting Chiggy007:
NHC Saying this is CAT-3 solely based on Satellite images!
TRopicalNonsense is indeed talking NOnsense!! LOL!!!


that is not true and you know it. wait for the 5 pm advisory and you will see.

Ike is NOT a cat3.

Ike is a large but weak cat 2 with an abnormal storm surge
due to size until the NHC says otherwise i believe what i see thanks.


1104. Asta
The small storms that have been moving through SE LA this Am - some with upper level circulation have been moving really fast- 40-58 mph... Its the microbursts that will do the most damage, and if they are moving that fast you wont really have time to see them coming... It was small little fast tornados on the upper left side of Katrina's eyewall that brought down so many trees and power lines north of the lake.. to those choosing to stay for the "hurricane" beware the Tornados... and "microbursts" as well as the storm surge...
1105. rm1948
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Should people on Galvaston Island make a last minute decision to leave, will the road be open for them to evacuate, or does it flood?


They may still be able to get off the island via the bridge. Whether they can get to the bridge is the problem.

A couple years ago the bridge would have been the problem. It was flat and close to the water. It got covered with nearly any hurricane that came through. There is a new arched bridge that does not suffer that problem.
1107. o22sail
Quoting CatastrophicDL:


Stormtop was on earlier saying he was in Galveston in disguise! I think we all know who the bear is! :o)


Good call! hehehe.
When your local forecast includes this type of information you had better be somewhere else.

3 products issued by NWS for: Galveston TX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hurricane Warning
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IKE APPROACHES THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...

.AT 100 PM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE
TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY THREE...
MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

TXZ200-213-214-235>238-131845-
/O.CON.KHGX.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-
132 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS SECTION.
UPDATED STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE SECTION.
UPDATED WINDS SECTION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
MATAGORDA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

FLOOD WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT PERSONS WHO LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR POORLY-
BUILT STRUCTURES EVACUATE TO A SAFER LOCATION SUCH AS A WELL BUILT
HOME. PERSONS WHO LIVE IN HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING AS
WINDS CAN BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 MPH STRONGER AT THE TOP OF A HIGH
RISE THAN AT GROUND LEVEL. PERSONS OUTSIDE OF THE MANDATORY EVACUATION
AREAS WHO HAVE NOT EVACUATED SHOULD PLAN TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A
WELL BUILT STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS.

CURRENT EVACUATION INFORMATION:

BRAZORIA COUNTY:

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CITIES OF PEARLAND...ALVIN...MANVEL...
AND ANGLETON WHICH ARE UNDER A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION.

CHAMBERS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY
EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY.

GALVESTON COUNTY:

POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.

A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA...
OMEGA BAY...SAN LEON...BACLIFF...FREDDIESVILLE...TIKI ISLAND...
KEMAH...AND CLEAR LAKE SHORES.

THE GALVESTON-BOLIVAR FERRY HAS CEASED OPERATIONS.

THE BOLIVAR S.U.D. HAS INDICATED THEY HAVE CEASED WATER SERVICE
TO THE PENINSULA.

HARRIS COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE FOLLOWING ZIP
CODES...77058...77059...77062...77520...77546...77571...77586...
77598 AND 77507.

PERSONS THROUGHOUT HARRIS COUNTY THAT LIVE IN MOBILE HOMES OR
HIGH RISES SHOULD CONSIDER EVACUATING DUE TO THE HIGH THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR RESIDENTS WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...PLEASE CALL 311.

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES HAS SUSPENDED FLIGHTS INTO AND OUT OF HOBBY
AIRPORT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

JACKSON COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED TODAY.

MATAGORDA COUNTY:

A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

PALACIOS SCHOOL DISTRICT WILL REMAIN CLOSED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER
15TH.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

TIDE LEVELS REPORTED AT 1230 PM CDT:

HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL/BATTLESHIP TEXAS - 4.7 FEET
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE - 4.6 FEET
ROLLOVER PASS - 5.4 FEET
EAGLE POINT - 5.9 FEET
MORGANS POINT - 5.1 FEET
NORTH JETTY - 7.7 FEET
PIER 21 - 6.8 FEET
PLEASURE PIER - 8.9 FEET
FREEPORT - 7.4 FEET
PORT O`CONNOR - 3.6 FEET

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN RISING VERY RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WATER LEVELS PEAKING BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT AS THE
STORM SURGE SPREADS ONTO THE COAST AND BAYSHORE AREAS. MAXIMUM
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF ONLY 15 MILES CAN MAKE DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL FEET MORE OR LESS FROM SOME OF THESE VALUES.

MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS FORECAST:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

BOLIVAR PENINSULA...17 TO 20 FEET

GALVESTON ISLAND......14 TO 17 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE FROM SARGENT TO
SAN LUIS PASS...8 TO 14 FEET

GULF-FACING COASTLINE WEST OF SARGENT...4 TO 7 FEET

SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY...3 TO 5 FEET

SEVERE INUNDATION IS LIKELY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND BAYSHORE
AREAS!

NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.

HIGH TIDE TIMES:

MORGANS POINT...
FRI 2:52 PM.
SAT 2:59 PM.
CLEAR LAKE ENTRANCE...
SAT 10:43 AM.
EAGLE POINT...
SAT 8:32 AM.
PORT BOLIVAR...
FRI 1:52 PM.
SAT 4:52 AM.
SAT 3:00 PM.
GALVESTON CHANNEL...
FRI 1:38 PM.
SAT 4:38 AM.
SAT 2:46 PM.
GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
SAT 3:32 AM.
SAT 1:40 PM.
JAMAICA BEACH...
FRI 4:16 PM.
SAT 7:16 AM.
SAT 5:24 PM.
SAN LUIS PASS...
FRI 1:29 PM.
SAT 4:29 AM.
SAT 2:37 PM.
FREEPORT...
SAT 3:54 AM.
SAT 2:02 PM.
PORT O CONNOR...
SAT 2:01 PM.

NOTE...TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM THE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

...WINDS...

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING IKE IS UNUSUALLY LARGE. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD INLAND TO THE
HOUSTON AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF AT LEAST TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WILL LAST UP TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH WILL REACH THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CDT. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS MAY LAST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS.

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 90 TO 110 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
HARRIS...LIBERTY...BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS NEAR 115 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF
THE STORM COMES ONSHORE.

VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE AND
DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES IS LIKELY.

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IKE WILL BEGIN SPREADING ONTO
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10
TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE STORM.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS IKE MOVES ONSHORE. YOU SHOULD
PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 530 PM CDT.
1109. FLdewey
LMFAO... that's so silly. Yeah the bear would have left town if he had known about the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale.

Some people will never leave their home. Get over it and worry about yourself and your family.
1110. ATS3
RECON NEARING CENTER
1111. melly
I have a question...The TV reporters and the Weather Channel personnel...How do they evacuate them from the storms? They usually are there until the last moments..Obviously it is too windy for any type of aircraft.
1112. Patrap
GOES-WEST RSO Rapid Scan Visible Loop of Ike Link
Latest Galveston Pressure: 1001.16 mb
See this link: Internet Partnership Radio for LIVE (& 24/7) emergency broadcast of Ike incoming to Galveston / Houston area. Includes live Feed from news TV and has live shots of surf and waves which I cannot access from other webcam sites. Hopefully this site can handle the web traffic. The Mayor of Galveston is speaking and sounds "resigned" to storminnusating island. Flooding is occurring. She is saying "If people haven't left island by know they need to take shelter - and that leaving the island now is not possible" - paraphrased as she speaks - by Mike G
1115. bjdsrq
'Jerry Rivers' falls in water on air:
Link
Quoting Newport62:


I think that should be done off blog if anyone wants to join you....As you believe in prayer, there are many that don't so this shouldn't be the place for that. Thanks-


Nothing at all wrong with praying for those who MIGHT be dad tomorrow. If you don't want to do this for the people involved.....don't join in & simply ignore the post.

Problem solved.

God be with those in Texas.

I will be praying for you, as I'm sure many thousands more will.

1117. TXKiwi
Galveston is under mandatory evacuation. Seems a pretty simple instruction. Even if you doubted yesterday, when you got up this morning, saw the water coming in, you could still evacuate at midday toda - no traffic jams.
Anyone who stayed, chose to stay. Don't tell me that at midday today, 10,000 people weren't aware.
1118. rekkid
Quoting FLdewey:
It's not looking good in Galveston... from the Houston Chronicle.



I saw early a guy that was rescued from that neighborhood. He said he was at the house across from the burning one, and the firemen that picked him up said they couldnt get pumper truck there, so they just had to let it burn. Thats a part of Galveston called the West End, I think... they said there is no sea wall there, so the water is just pouring in.
I was in the 1989, 7.10 Earthquake in San Francisco, left for work not knowing I would never live in that apartment again and would lose most of my life's belongings...we had no warning...in the end it's just stuff, you come to realize that very quickly...I can only send my thoughts and non-denominational prayers to all in this storm's path who chose to stay for their stuff!!
Quoting kittytx:


30 mi. north of downtown Houston here, skies are finally starting to get dark. 15:00 hrs CDT. Local news has said that my area will get the Cat 2 wind gusts before Ike starts to blow out. We've been told to expect 12 hours of wind gusts, but several of my neighbors haven't bothered to bring in lawn chairs and one even set his trash out on the curb.

this promises to be fun.


It's mind boggling that people are so uninformed or really this dense. Good luck!
1121. FLdewey
Quoting melly:
I have a question...The TV reporters and the Weather Channel personnel...How do they evacuate them from the storms? They usually are there until the last moments..Obviously it is too windy for any type of aircraft.


They find a place to shelter in place.
1122. Patrap
GOES-East

4 km Visible (7-minute sector) Link
I-45 is conna go under in the next few hours...

monster getting better organized...
1125. LAgal78
Quoting ChicagoCub:
I was in the 1989, 7.10 Earthquake in San Francisco, left for work not knowing I would never live in that apartment again and would lose most of my life's belongings...we had no warning...in the end it's just stuff, you come to realize that very quickly...I can only send my thoughts and non-denominational prayers to all in this storm's path who chose to stay for their stuff!!
Non-denominational prayers? LOL
Link
West end of Galveston Island is now cut off such that emergency responders cannot reach anybody.
You can always give money to non-profits like the Red-Cross if you are concerned with the well-being of your Texas citizens.
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


that is not true and you know it. wait for the 5 pm advisory and you will see.

Ike is NOT a cat3.

Ike is a large but weak cat 2 with an abnormal storm surge
due to size until the NHC says otherwise i believe what i see thanks.




Ike's a MODERATE Category 2, and don't think Category 2s are 'no big deal', I was nearly mutilated in Isabel!
1129. Asta
Quoting FLdewey:
It's not looking good in Galveston... from the Houston Chronicle.


link please?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny how you must not have check the right buoys, there were reports of 90 kt winds from two separate buoys. Stop trying to downplay this extremely serious situation. 'Only' 20 feet? That's Category 5 storm surge.


now you are making up stuff. Stop playing the Doom and Gloom and just be happy Ike is not a cat5. Nobody is downplaying anything.
1132. BRoe941
Ok so Ike is a rather frightening storm; that said god help those in its path, but the entire nation expecially the gulf coast are going to feel this, today on the way back from class (Florida State) the gas lines were outrageous traffic at 2pm looked like traffic at 5pm...

oh and with such a catastrophically devastating storm approaching one of our states, how can individuals on this blog bicker about religion? and politics?

weather is immune to religion and politics, an agnostic democrat does not cause Ike to strengthen and an evangelical republican can't make the storm disappear..it is in the hands of NATURE

that said its jmho
Quoting yonzabam:


Amazing. And Ike still 10 hours from landfall. How far east in La is that?


The parishes being hardest hit right now are south of N.O. to the east and west: Plaquemines, Jefferson, Terrebone and from now on all coastal parishes to the east.

I live on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain and there are many many road closures here because of rising waters in the lake moving up into the rivers.
Here's some pics from the Galleria area of Houston today. They were taken from inside a car, so not great photos, just after 1 pm Houston time.



Evacuation coaches parked in a car park off Houston's Westheimer... Transco tower is in the background, sky looking a bit fierce.



Sign in McDonald's window on Westheimer





No Gas at Exxon on Westheimer





No Ice cream at Baskin Robins



Last chance to fill your tank



Angry Sky over the Transco Tower




Angry Sky over the Transco Tower




The evacuation Traffic heading out of town
1135. melly
FL dewey.I thought that much.But they are saying noplace is 100% safe
1136. FLdewey
According to AP there are as many as a dozen homes on fire at this point... reports still coming in.
Fox new's showing Galveston already getting Flooding.
Winds will be replaced by calm soon

Then will come the devistation
Quoting snotly:
40% of the population of Galveston stayed on the island according to abc 13 Houston what would that be in numbers?

15-20K is my guess.. repeat.. guess
Lets try this again...

I-45 is conna go under in the next few hours...


1141. sprague
The CNN reporter in Galveston just indicated that he had roller skated around most of town this morning and almost all folks had heeded warning. On Fox the comments were that the evacuation has gone very very well.
1142. FLdewey
Quoting Asta:

link please?


You don't have Google?

Go to Link and click on the burning house.
1143. Patrap
Bad..BAd..BAd.

The Time of Impact iz beginning.

Its a BAd Hurricane. Hunker Down.

Short Floater - AVN Color Infrared LoopLink
1144. Asta
Quoting LAgal78:
RayRay, I remember for Rita...my uncle took his boat after the storm and went to ride down the highway there...he saw bubbles popping up on the side of the road and couldn't figure out what it was. He stopped to take a closer look, and to his horror found that it was cows...hundreds of them...drowning :(

That is soooo sad..
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


now you are making up stuff. Stop playing the Doom and Gloom and just be happy Ike is not a cat5. Nobody is downplaying anything.


Welcome to my Ignore list, Ike does have Category 5 storm surge, actually read Jeff's post and what the NHC is saying, The Galveston hurricane had 15 foot storm surge and it killed 16,000. I suggest everyone do the same with him.
AMEN
Quoting Patrap:
GOES-WEST RSO Rapid Scan Visible Loop of Ike Link


Wow. Great look at Ike.
I-45 @ Harborside Drive on the Island

Patrap-nice posts
Quoting stormwatcherTX:
Here's some pics from the Galleria area of Houston today. They were taken from inside a car, so not great photos, just after 1 pm Houston time.



Evacuation coaches parked in a car park off Houston's Westheimer... Transco tower is in the background, sky looking a bit fierce.



Sign in McDonald's window on Westheimer





No Gas at Exxon on Westheimer





No Ice cream at Baskin Robins



Last chance to fill your tank



Angry Sky over the Transco Tower




Angry Sky over the Transco Tower




The evacuation Traffic heading out of town

Thanks for the pics
1151. LAgal78
Quoting Asta:

That is soooo sad..
It really was horrible. Never saw a grown man cry like that. He felt so bad that there was nothing he could do to save them.
Mayor of Galveston just stated at live news conference that 40% of Galveston Island Population have chosen to stay there. See this link. ~ Mike G
What ever comes from 91l it will be about on Ike size storm.
1155. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Welcome to my Ignore list, Ike does have Category 5 storm surge, actually read Jeff's post and what the NHC is saying, The Galveston hurricane had 15 foot storm surge and it killed 16,000. I suggest everyone do the same with him.


I put him on ignore this morning. He needs a Xanax.

Station 42361....

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 91.3 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.58 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.5 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
I new to this blog so hope I don't offend. I was born and raised in Corpus Christi, and have been through all the hurricanes there up until 1990 when I moved to North Texas, so hurricanes I know...a little too well. After Hurricane Celia, I remember it took FOUR WEEKS to get the electric back on, and FIVE WEEKS to get the phone back up. The weather was horrifically hot, muggy, and still. No way to get gas, water, food, etc without being in LONNNNGGG lines. Anyone deciding to "ride it out," I hope you have listened to and read the advice on TV and here on this blog, because you are going to need it. I've also been to Galveston quite a lot, and anyone deciding to stay there IS going to die when that storm surge hits. I've never felt so helpless in my life. Nothing we can do, nothing we can say except WHY DIDN'T YOU LEAVE!!!!!????? This IS going to be a heartbreaking event, I think worse than any that has ever hit the Texas coast.
1157. LAgal78
The blog broke :(
Quoting Enola:
AMAZING A/V of our heros rescuing a woman and her dog! I'm glad they saved the dog (the woman looks like this was a walk-in-the-park, and even waved to the camera). God bless the U.S. Coast Guard!

Raw video: Coast Guard rescue


I find the stupidity of this woman infuriating. I'm sure I'll offend somebody but too bad that gene pool is still in existence. First responders jobs are difficult enough without having to save people from their own blatant stupidity. Arrggghhh
Having spent the last two weeks covering regions of south central and south western Louisiana assessing Gustav damage where most of the wind damage was from barely Cat 1 force, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Ike. Having said that, the surge is the danger. Just look at what happened from Katrina, from Bay St. Louis to Gulf Port / Biloxi. There is going to be significant damage.
1160. FLdewey
Quoting melly:
FL dewey.I thought that much.But they are saying noplace is 100% safe


They do take a risk, but it's a measured risk. I work in the emergency management field so I've had plenty of time with the TV crews over the years... Maybe someday I'll post the pictures I have of Cantore interviewing a local city manager while standing on a box to make him look a little taller. Remember after all it IS television. ;-)
Quoting LAgal78:
It really was horrible. Never saw a grown man cry like that. He felt so bad that there was nothing he could do to save them.
I bet he still has that image in his mind. Would be hard to deal with.
Mail !!
1162. IKE
Quoting LAgal78:
The blog broke :(


It stays broke...it's aggravating....
Reporting from the Spring area (just north of Houston), pressure is at 1000 mb (falling all morning) but still no sustained winds, just little bursts every now and then and nothing super heavy.
ok i dont get it why wont they up the winds there are higher winds in there and the pressure is low i dont seewhy they wont admit that the winds are higher
1166. EtexJC
TWC released the new 5pm est advisory, moving NW, 105 mph, 955mb
1167. Asta
Quoting Patrap:
Bad..BAd..BAd.

The Time of Impact iz beginning.

Its a BAd Hurricane. Hunker Down.

Short Floater - AVN Color Infrared LoopLink

Yes- Patrap.
it's bad. It's really bad and a big storm.
I don't know when will people learn that even a big rainy windy event can be bad.

It doesn't even need to be a MAJOR hurricane to kill people, animals, do lots of damage..

This one is another big wake up call.
You can't blame it on levees or even politicians..

People need to start taking storms of any size much more seriously.

Businesses and schools need to start giving families more time off to prepare...

to heck with the number of school days, or work days missed..
Businesses need to plan more storm days into their calendars- or start the fall semester Oct 15th...
Time to start thinking more proactively about better solutions than last minute gridlock evacuations or the denial and or shelter in place...
May be someone will start building hurricane hotels in the midwest connected by lightrail to the gulf coast????
Link
I believe that IKE will be identified as a storm with a "toilet bowl" eye. It is so weird watching it. It's there...you see it. It just doesn't act like a tropical eye.
1169. EtexJC
Quoting IKE:


It stays broke...it's aggravating....

I switch to Chrome from Firefox, works better....
From LAgranny:

Anyone here from Lake Charles area? I evacuated and would like to find out what the conditions are right now in that area.

I'm in Lake Charles right now, just south of McNeese Street. Conditions right now are better that expected -- wind and rain-wise. Just a few sprinkles of rain, some sun but mostly overcast and winds of about 25 mph at the airport, a gust of 46 mph was recorded earlier.

The rising water is the REAL story here! Water is already over River Road and similar roads; water is entering homes along the Calcasieu, West Fork, and ship channel, including in the Deatonville area. The water level in Lake Charles is also rising, going up the steps at the Civic Center seawall.

The mayor and his staff are expected to ride out the storm at the jail, rather than at the Civic Center as usual, because they say a foot of water INSIDE the Civic Center is a real possibility.

Another report was issued that this record flooding has the potential to flood half the city of Lake Charles because of the Industrial Canal to the south, the ship channel and Prien Lake to the east and Lake Charles and the Calcasieu River to the north of the city.
I think the blog ate my post. Did Ike jog a bit north? Is he NW now? Maybe miss a direct hit on Galveston Island. Maybe more Bolivar Pen? Wouldn't that lessen the surge in the bay a bit?
1172. LAgal78
I'm sure WU's bandwidth is getting pounded with lots of people looking for updates on Ike...maybe that's why the blog is down so much lately :(
Incredible video from earlier of humungous waives crashing the Galveston Seawall. I'm glued to the media coverage but feeling sad about current and impending devastataion. ~ Mike G
1174. LAgal78
Trying again for the 3rd time: Can someone please comment on what kind of water rise we can expect for the Vermillion River here in Lafayette, LA?
They need to carry magic markers and mark these SS# on these people instead of asking them to do it themselves. If they're not leaving, they're not writing SS# on themselves.
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
I think the blog ate my post. Did Ike jog a bit north? Is he NW now? Maybe miss a direct hit on Galveston Island. Maybe more Bolivar Pen? Wouldn't that lessen the surge in the bay a bit?

I agree.
Is the blog working now? :(
Yeouch! They found a 950.9mb extrap surface pressure!
Quoting LAgal78:
Trying again for the 3rd time: Can someone please comment on what kind of water rise we can expect for the Vermillion River here in Lafayette, LA?
heard Rob say something about 11', flood stage is 10'. Don't know if that is the final word or if it's been updated. I've been here instead of TV.
is 91L gonna affect florida?
sorry to change subject

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.........STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION........

FORECASTER AVILA
..........Love that Man.....

1183. amd
lowest pressure according to the airplane

950.9 mb (~28.08 inches)

Dropsonde dropped in the eye wall unfortunately failed:

1185. Patrap



NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
Quoting billy305:
is 91L gonna affect florida?
sorry to change subject



91L probably wont develop.
Ike's eyewall looks pretty good on radar, especially when compared to many other storms that have made landfall recently (for example, Gustav, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc. all looked like half-hurricanes on radar at/near landfall)...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

For comparison, Rita at landfall:

Quoting IKE:


It stays broke...it's aggravating....



find another blog then instead of constantly whining!!

Wunderground is the best weather site on the web.
Quoting SarahPalin:


Where are you getting this from? Link? Thanks.


Recon...
Ike's eyewall looks pretty good on radar, especially when compared to many other storms that have made landfall recently (for example, Gustav, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc. all looked like half-hurricanes on radar at/near landfall)...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

For comparison, Rita at landfall:

1191. LAgal78
Quoting marinetech47:
heard Rob say something about 11', flood stage is 10'. Don't know if that is the final word or if it's been updated. I've been here instead of TV.
I was told that while the flood stage is 10', no one would actually have water in their home until it gets to 13'...not sure how accurate that is. Is there a lot of rain with this storm? Or mostly just the surge?
Eye wall now looked closed to me. NOT perfectly not, but it is to an extent.
1193. Xandtar
I vaguely recall now... the beginning of this season, when the Gulf of Mexico had the largest dead zone it had ever had.

Then someone turned on the churn, God I don't remember now how many times the Gulf's been swirled south of Louisiana.

Its not much of a silver lining beside all the people who could die tonight, though.
1st my prayers are w/ those that need them. 2nd
i have lived this hurricane media hype far too long. i hope i am wrong however, after one of the worst natural disasters just a few years ago, i cannot beleive that the people of galveston are that ignorant that 40% are in knee deep water right now. after all is said and done, much property damage, very few lives lost! MEDIA HYPE people!
I think Ike's center is making it's way to shore faster than anticipated. Looks like it could be there in just 3-4 hours or so. It also appears to me that although Galveston will see a big storm surge with the center passing over, Port Arthur and extreme SW Louisiana are gonna take the biggest hit from the NE quadrant.
I hope with all the attention given to Galveston in the media, Port Arthur and SE LA residents are prepared for a similar surge scenario. If anything positive can be said it's that there is no eyewall therefore any major intensification prior to his center reaching shore is highly unlikely.
Quoting LAgal78:
Trying again for the 3rd time: Can someone please comment on what kind of water rise we can expect for the Vermillion River here in Lafayette, LA?

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER
AS WELL AS THE VERMILION RIVER NEAR SURREY STREET IN LAFAYETTE.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER VERMILION
RIVER SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE DUE TO STORM SURGE TRAVELING UPSTREAM.

1197. CJ5
Looks like he is losing his colder cloud tops.
1198. LAgal78
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.........STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION........

FORECASTER AVILA
..........Love that Man.....

He's my fav too...I find he's much more detailed than the others...
how big is that eye? is that the actual eye o radar it looks huge?
put me on ignore for this if you want but ike lookslikea cat 3 to me
1201. Greyelf
Ok, try #3.

I ponied up the cash for the premium service on HurricaneTrack.com. Looks to be pretty cool. There are *4* live streaming cams on the island. We'll see how long they can keep them up. Should be very interesting.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Ike's eyewall looks pretty good on radar, especially when compared to many other storms that have made landfall recently (for example, Gustav, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, etc. all looked like half-hurricanes on radar at/near landfall)...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

For comparison, Rita at landfall:

DONT PUT ANIMATIONS!!!!
it slows the blog down
constructive criticism
if you want a fast blog
NO....A-N-I-M-A-T-I-O-N-S
1203. IKE
2045UTC IR....

1204. LLHi
I don't know this for sure, but I think posting the animated images may drag the blog down a bit. Anyone know?
Quoting FLdewey:
It's not looking good in Galveston... from the Houston Chronicle.



OMG!!! The house at the end on the left was OURS until about 2 weeks ago!!! We just sold it!!!! OMG....our neighbors house is burning down!! This could destroy many homes in Pirate's Beach!!
Ike has just about closed off his COC with with an intense burst of convection right in the lacking spot. Not good. Could see some slight strengthening till landfall not that it matters much anymore.
1208. Asta
Quoting LAgal78:
Trying again for the 3rd time: Can someone please comment on what kind of water rise we can expect for the Vermillion River here in Lafayette, LA?

I heard on the news today an noon that the water levels will all rise until 9:00pm.. not sure which station- WVUE or WDSU... Try this link from the advanced Hydrolc Prediction Service out of NOAA
Link
After being directly hit by Ivan and going through rebuilding of my personal home, I would like to suggest that someone take the letter I out of the hurricane alphabet
Is it just me or has "tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov" gone down?
Quoting thechaseison:
I am on Galveston Island next to the 61st street sea wall I will try to E-Mail pic from my blackbarry the hotel is running of back up power and yes I came here to meet Ike


Aren't you afraid to die? Serious question.
The Gulf seems to only sustain category twos dolly Gustav and Ike were all twos at landfall
I believe Ike could bump to 120mph within 1-3 hours
Caltore just said Ike is a lop sided storm lacking moisture on its Southwest side.
1216. IKE
2045UTC visible...

1217. LAgal78
Quoting REVinCajuncountry:

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER
AS WELL AS THE VERMILION RIVER NEAR SURREY STREET IN LAFAYETTE.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER VERMILION
RIVER SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE DUE TO STORM SURGE TRAVELING UPSTREAM.

No kidding?! I'm at work so I haven't been able to watch the news...Sooo, how far south? I have friends that live on E. Bayou Parkway...think they'll get some flooding there? It's not South OF Lafayette, but it is South Lafayette...
Quoting all4hurricanes:
The Gulf seems to only sustain category twos dolly Gustav and Ike were all twos at landfall


????
1219. Asta
Quoting LLHi:
I don't know this for sure, but I think posting the animated images may drag the blog down a bit. Anyone know?

That shouldn't cause it to slow- but it is better to post links rather than full graphics..
1220. CJ5
Quoting TropicalNonsense:



find another blog then instead of constantly whining!!

Wunderground is the best weather site on the web.


He speaks the truth..take it easy, have a fresca.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1058 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

MERMENTAU RIVER NEAR MERMENTAU
VERMILION RIVER AT LAFAYETTE, SURREY STREET GAGE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...TEXAS..
WEST FORK OF THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT SAM HOUSTON JONES STATE PARK
CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR SALT WATER BARRIER
SABINE RIVER NEAR ORANGE
NECHES RIVER NEAR BEAUMONT


LAC055-113-130558-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0060.080912T2000Z-080915T1100Z/
/VLSL1.1.FS.080912T2000Z.080913T0900Z.080914T2300Z.NO/
1058 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE VERMILION RIVER AT LAFAYETTE, SURREY STREET GAGE.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 10:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...DUE TO THE STORM SURGE UP THE VERMILION RIVER...THE RIVER IS FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TO RISE TO NEAR 11.0 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF HEYMANN PARK OFF OF
HIGHWAY 90 WILL OCCUR.
1222. Asta
Quoting HopquickSteve:
Is it just me or has "tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov" gone down?

its you. site is up. nice link. thanks
Quoting katywatcher:


OMG!!! The house at the end on the left was OURS until about 2
weeks ago!!! We just sold it!!!! OMG....our neighbors house is burning
down!! This could destroy many homes in Pirate's Beach!!


How disturbing!

FYI, Ike now officially has an eyewall. Not a perfect one, but there you go:
------------
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 21:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 20:38:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°54'N 93°21'W (27.9N 93.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (254 km) to the SSE (163°) from Beaumont, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,715m (8,907ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 128° at 105kts (From the SE at ~ 120.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 955mb (28.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 105kts (~ 120.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:17:20Z
----

69 miles, wow. Lots of room for it to reel in. Just not too much time.
1224. IKE
22 NM east of Galveston....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 48.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.7 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 152 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.22 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.22 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Quoting CoastalMs:
how big is that eye? is that the actual eye o radar it looks huge?


According to TWC Ike's eye isn't a "true eye." Its a wide center of circulation but not a "true eye."
1226. Patrap
4 km Water Vapor (7-minute sector)Link
1227. LAgal78
Hey Patient, thanks for the info!
Quoting CJ5:


Nope...I said intensity, if he cannot close his NW side he will not gain intensity and everthing else will be affected. I am simply stating the facts.


yes, and you are correct in your analysis CJ5.
glad someone can see the truth and is not on the blog
to just play hype games.

The failure of IKE to develop an eyewall and wrap up is why he has not and will not strengthen.
Quoting Patrap:



NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link


Wow. He's gonna go right thru Galveston and Houston.
L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)

Are they sure? It doesn't look open to me.
Chuck Watson just updated his oil/infra/refinery damage forecasts over at The Oil Drum saying that:

"The refineries remain a significant concern. I'm less concerned about wind, unless we get unlucky and something breaks that shouldn't. The big question now is down to flooding, and the main facility I am worried about is the Texas City complex. If the storm tracks to the NE of the bay, and winds blow offshore, it may avoid flooding. But a leftward wobble could inundate this complex, and take out over 1 MMBBL/day capacity for several months. The big Exxon-Mobil Baytown complex is a bit better protected - the storm will have to take a significant leftward jog to flood it. It looks like Port Arthur area is in for big flooding if the current trends continue, but the refineries are further inland, and if the storm starts moving faster there may not be enough time for the surge to build inland."

30 Day Outage Probabilities (Refinery Capacity):

1 MMBBL: 70%
3 MMBBL: 30%
5 MMBBL: 10%

A lot more including maps and Ike related energy geekery here if you are interested:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4521
1232. tlemom
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
BlxMS - too bad you don't have a link to that audio. It is so sad and really shakes you too the core. I felt bad for those dispatchers too.


#740 I was crying reading this post. It really brings the reality back to the situation at hand. I am no where near this storm, however was affected by Katrina and Ivan. I pray for everyone in the path of Ike.
1233. Asta
Earth Scan Lab @ LSU -IKE Water vapor imagery
Link
1234. LAgal78
So when is Ike going to take that northerly turn?
I think the blog eat my post :(
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


According to TWC Ike's eye isn't a "true eye." Its a wide center of circulation but not a "true eye."


Hurricane hunters say it is an eye (though why they say it is open I don't know if you look at radar):

L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)


PS: I didn't know anybody still watched TWC these days...
Stations here (Houston/Pearland) are saying that it is gonna get here quicker. I heard David Tillman (chan 13?) say a possible midnight landfall. Also, I kinda see it (the eye) coming in straight up Galveston bay not that it matters with this thing) if it continues on the path it is right now Funktop Color Infrared Loop GOM Link
1238. Patrap
Ike ZOOMED with Storm Tracks...Link
1239. Brillig
Quoting LLHi:
I don't know this for sure, but I think posting the animated images may drag the blog down a bit. Anyone know?


Only if the viewer's connection is slow or the host computer for the image is overtaxed. Once it's in cache, then it depends only on the user's computer. If the image is hosted on the same box as the blog, then it could affect blog speed for others.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Hurricane hunters say it is an eye (though why they say it is open I don't know if you look at radar):

L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)


PS: I didn't know anybody still watched TWC these days...
only to see Stephanie
Impressive-
BLOG BOG....
eating posts...
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Hurricane hunters say it is an eye (though why they say it is open I don't know if you look at radar):

L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)


PS: I didn't know anybody still watched TWC these days...



Cantore's in Galveston. It could get interesting seeing him report from inside the eye.
1244. Asta
36 Hour precip totals-Link
He's not a wet storm- but he can sure push the water inland...
"PS: I didn't know anybody still watched TWC these days..."

During times like this it has value as a secondary (well, tertiary) source...at least for the live shots.
Drawing a straight trendline from Ike's last five forecast points takes the center of Ike's eye to San Luis Pass (west end of the island). However, as we know, steering is gradually to make him recurve more and more. Consequently, I'm thinking landfall's going to be somewhere around Hershey Beach (rough center of the island).
Ok I will try again. First let me say that I am starting to feel a little sick watching the news channels with all of these people staying.

I would like to ask when it is expected to turn North?
Quoting BRoe941:

weather is immune to religion and politics, an agnostic democrat does not cause Ike to strengthen and an evangelical republican can't make the storm disappear..it is in the hands of NATURE

that said its jmho


What about evangelical Democrats and agnostic Republicans? LOL

Come on folks lighten up with the side issues a Tragedy is about to unfold. Witness and Wonder
Heraldo on Fox just got knocked over by a wave...Firefighters came over and once saw that he was alright told him to "Get off the Seawall"
Looks like they're forcasting for the remenets of Lowell and Ike to converge on Michigan and we may get up to 5 inches of rain and 40-50 kt winds here in the Detroit area and acrossed lower Michigan. We'll have to see how long Ike keeps his tropical charactaristics!
1252. TxBlaze
anitas on the dike at 11 am

Anita's on Texas City Dike at 11 am.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Hurricane hunters say it is an eye (though why they say it is open I don't know if you look at radar):

L. Eye Character: Open in the west (center has 50% or more, but less than 100%, of eyewall coverage)
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles)


PS: I didn't know anybody still watched TWC these days...

It's like I've been saying. It's a toilet bowl vortex, not an eye...it's unique.
fuel tanks on fire, exploding on Galveston Island.
there is a working ship out in the storm that cannot be reached by emergency responders. 22 people on board. 500ft ship. hopefully they can ride out the storm.
Quoting bigdoge3:
40 percent of galveston stayed there is on shelter on galveston island for those people it is at BALL HIGH HIGH SCHOOL!!


So does that mean the bodies will all be in one place? Sorry to be so glum but the island is supposed to be underwater for 12 hours...in up to 20 feet of water? Get out if you still can!
Quoting BlxMS:


You can be a righteously indignant as you like, but I will guarantee you that (whether they will later admit it or not) there will be people on the upper Texas Coast who don't believe in God today that will be asking for God's help before tomorrow. I know...Been there...done that. And if you don't believe me I can almost be assured that you've never been in combat or in the worst of a hurricane with a Cat 4 or 5 surge.


Robert Plant and Jimmy Page made the call on rushing water many years ago.

"Cryin wont help you, prayin wont do you no good."
1258. Brillig
Quoting setfree7:
there is a working ship out in the storm that cannot be reached by emergency responders. 22 people on board. 500ft ship. hopefully they can ride out the storm.


Sort of. I'd call it a nonworking ship. It's my understanding it has no power. It's a ship adrift.
wow, is anyone listening to KHOU? I dont even know what to say...
1260. TXWW08
Quoting Brillig:


Sort of. I'd call it a nonworking ship. It's my understanding it has no power. It's a ship adrift.


I think the crew member said they have electricity, but no engines.
1261. Rick54
Quoting EarthwalkUSA:
fuel tanks on fire, exploding on Galveston Island.


Are we talking large fuel storage tanks like a tank farm?

Do you have a link?
Just wanted to post a quick update to my blog. I don't mean to shamelessly promote it, but I am in Alvin, TX (outside storm surge area) and am taking detailed wind measurements, etc.

So... if you are interested, please feel free to check it out here.

As of my last trip outside (about 4:15pm CDT) things haven't really gotten going here just yet. Peak wind gust has only been 33 mph with sustained winds in the 15-25mph range.

I'm really hoping my internet will hold out long enough to see what this (seeming) eyewall contraction ends up doing. It may be a little too close to result in a huge wind increase, but the storm definitely seems to be getting better organized.
1263. Rick54
Quoting EarthwalkUSA:
fuel tanks on fire, exploding on Galveston Island.


Are we talking large fuel storage tanks like a tank farm?

Do you have a link?
Quoting Rick54:


Are we talking large fuel storage tanks like a tank farm?

Do you have a link?


this was a tranformer.. the fire is comming from fuel at a yacht basin..(gal yacht club) no major fuel tanks involved per khou
1265. Remek
Quoting Rick54:

fuel tanks on fire, exploding on Galveston Island.
Are we talking large fuel storage tanks like a tank farm?

Do you have a link?
Quoting Rick54:


Are we talking large fuel storage tanks like a tank farm?

Do you have a link?


Per KHOU - at the yacht club... transformer exploded near the main building (offshore) igniting fuel storage tanks nearby. Fire is still contained to the yacht club building itself and a few boats nearby. No indications it could spread inland to buildings onshore.
Quoting flauntie:
wow, is anyone listening to KHOU? I dont even know what to say...


I am listening. Speechless.
1267. Zaphod
Ike is finally looking the way I expected last night. Dry air has been Galveston's greatest friend with this storm. Hopefully there is no longer time for Ike to spin up to match his pressure.
try this

http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826&live=yes&noad=yes&shu=1
well this is bad Ike has an eye like feature now plus galveston still hasnt experience ike's tropical storm to hurricane force winds yet this was a bad call not to evac

friends here from freeport to galveston are living it up here where I am at the hotel near 288 according to my friend working there they made a good call

lex from pearland

Ps power temporarily when out its on now but i dont know how long ill get to post but expect me to be back in 2 weeks from now if it goes for good
1270. AndyN
go to www.hurricanetrack.com. They have deployed live web cams in Galveston
1271. Toofew
Quoting tim73:
"It just water, man".

That is going to be the UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR! Anyway, hope that stupid man survives but seems unlikely.

Homeland Security chief was quoted by Fox News moments ago, "100 000 homes could be destroyed".


Sheesh, obviously those yahoos never read Isaac's Storm.

First time poster but you folks and of course Dr. Masters do a wonderful job.

Toof
1272. o22sail
I like Wayne on ABC13.
He's a realist, and has a better handle on what is about to happen than any of the other talking heads on the local TV.

I vote Wayne for anchor of the storm!
LOL.

BTW, I'm still praying for those that didn't make their way out by now. :-(
Here are some links for keeping up with the tide, winds and local coverage.

Live tide reports

Live wind reports

KHOU

KPRC

FOX26

KPRC
1274. o22sail
I like Wayne on ABC13.
He's a realist, and has a better handle on what is about to happen than any of the other talking heads on the local TV.

I vote Wayne for on "the scene guy" of the storm!
LOL.

BTW, I'm still praying for those that didn't make their way out by now. :-(
Live streaming feeds from Galveston-Houston


Link
1276. Seawall
Post eaten? LOL
I'm safe and sound and have power in the NW corner of Calcasieu Parish. Winds are heavy, but no loss of power yet.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/

Site is down err..