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Ike hammers the Midwest; fate of those on Bolivar Peninsula still unknown

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on September 15, 2008

Ike caused plenty of trouble Sunday over the Midwest. High winds near Cincinnati killed one person and caused about 1.3 million people to lose power in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. A Delta Airlines hangar at the Cincinnati airport lost its roof, and the airport control tower had to be evacuated. Flooding and high winds in Missouri and Illinois caused at least two storm-related deaths. Ike surprised Louisville, Kentucky, with sustained winds of 40 mph with a gust to hurricane force, 75 mph, at 1:56 pm CDT. Ike swept into western New York early this morning, knocking out power to 45,000 people and doing about $100 million in damage.

Part of the destruction wrought in the Midwest and Northeast was also due to the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell. Lowell hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula earlier in the week, and the moisture from the storm flowed northeastward up the axis of a cold front sweeping across the U.S. This same cold front also absorbed Ike. Some peak wind gusts observed yesterday from Ike:

Louisville, KY 75 MPH
Covington, KY 74 MPH
Huntingburg, IN 67 MPH
Fort Knox, KY 64 MPH
Owensboro, KY 63 MPH
Walnut Ridge, AR 62 MPH
Popular Bluff, MO 61 MPH
Cincinnati/Lunkin, OH 61 MPH

Some peak storm rainfall totals for various states, as of 10 PM CDT on Sunday:

Houston, TX: 15.75"
Glenmore, LA: 7.62"
Clinto, AR: 8.93"
Maize, KS: 11.44:
Fairview, KS: 11.83"
Oakland Mills, IA: 7.60"
Peotone, IL: 10.40"
Portage, IN: 11.46"
South Haven, MI: 6.68"
Mill Creek, OH: 7.08"
Murrysville, PA: 5.41"
Genoa City, WI: 3.25"
Falls City, NE: 3.39"


Figure 1. Total radar-estimated precipitation from Ike.

Chicago gets hammered by Lowell's remnants
O'Hare airport in Chicago broke its 20-year old 24-hour rainfall record Saturday, when 6.81" fell. The heavy rain triggered the worst flooding on record for the Des Plaines River in Chicago's western suburbs. The heavy rain was due to a cold front that was packed with moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Lowell.

Ike's damage
In its wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $1 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $22 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. AIR has not yet factored in the damage done to the Midwest on Sunday. Other risk-modeling insurance firms are estimating the total on-shore insured property damage will range between $6 billion and $18 billion. These estimates place Ike somewhere between the sixth and second most destructive hurricane on record.

The media is focusing primarily on two main areas in this massive disaster--the destruction in Galveston, and the plight of millions living in Houston and its suburbs. I'd like to call attention to two hard-hit areas mostly ignored by the media--the Bolivar Peninsula just northeast of Galveston, and coastal Louisiana.

The Bolivar Peninsula
If you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike's eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike's highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 15 feet or higher. Photos taken by the Coast Guard yesterday (Figure 2) of the Bolivar Peninsula show damage characteristic of a 15+ foot high storm surge--homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. The hurricane probably cut new channels through the peninsula, and it will be difficult for rescuers to reach the area.


Figure 2. Coast Guard photo of the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. All the houses along this section were washed off their foundations by the storm surge and destroyed. Image credit: bolivar.org.

Some have criticized the National Weather Service for overwarning, with their pronouncement of "certain death" for those who ignored evacuation orders. Well, I don't think anyone in the Bolivar Peninsula will complain that they were overwarned. While death was not certain among those who weathered the storm in houses pulverized by the storm surge, it was probable. According to the New York Times, one Bolivar Peninsula resident was washed all the way across across Galveston Bay to the mainland after the storm surge destroyed his house and threw him into the water. A helicopter picked him up. So far, there are three confirmed deaths on the peninsula, from the town of Port Bolivar. The peninsula had a population of 3,800, of which 500 did not evacuate. As many as 90 people were rescued from the peninsula in the hours leading up to the storm, but at least 400 people remained. Most of these people are as yet unaccounted for. According to news reports, 80% of the buildings on the peninsula were destroyed.

The moral: we don't know precisely where a hurricane will hit, which necessitates dire warnings for portions of the coast that will not receive the worst of the storm. The worst of a hurricane affects only a relatively narrow portion of the coast. And the worst of Hurricane Ike--the third most damaging hurricane of all time--was very, very bad indeed.

Louisiana
Hurricane Ike hit Louisiana very hard. The entire coast of Louisiana from Grand Isle at the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Texas border received a storm surge between 5 and 13 feet. In many cases, such as in Lake Charles, the flood heights were higher than those of Hurricane Rita in 2005. Terrebonne Parish in central Louisiana, which took a direct hit from Gustav but did not get flooded by that storm, got a 5-8 foot storm surge from Ike. The surge flooded over 13,000 homes and killed at least two people in the parish.

The tropics are quiet
Today, for the first time since August 15, we do not have a named storm in the Atlantic. The remains of Josephine are completely gone, so we will not have a seventh consecutive named storm hit the U.S. The landfall of Ike on Saturday set a new record, giving us strikes by six consecutive named storms. Five was the previous record, set most recently in 2004.

An area of disturbed weather (92L), 600 miled east of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has changed little in the past 24 hours. This disturbance is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and is suffering from dry air to its west. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Wind shear is expected to remain high, above 20 knots, for the next three days. By Thursday, if 92L finds itself farther south than expected--near the Bahama Islands--shear may drop enough to allow development to occur. We should keep an eye on this one, if it does stay to the south.

Elsewhere, the GFS model is forecasting development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa seven days from now.

I'll discuss the long-term outlook for the coming two weeks in a blog entry on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters
Rain compliments of IKE
Rain compliments of IKE
Salt Creek is a little over its banks. Someone must think this is a drive thru carwash.
More Dickinson Texas IKE Damage
More Dickinson Texas IKE Damage
Today...Sunday I was out all day recording where we had damage to the phone system and was able to get these pics. Saw the first power company workers on Deats working to get the trees out of the way in preparation for system restoral.VeriZon techs were out as well assessing damage. Dusk to dawn curfew still in effect..but power on now in area of Liggios.These images taken north of Deats and northward to Gill Rd on NW side of town. Stay Safe!!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting FreeportFL:
Link

Heated press conference with Governor Perry regarding media hindered, restricted, blackout by Federal, State and Local Government to report news to America.

ABC13 News Houston defending their rights in America to report news.


Yes, I watched the whole thing. I encourage others to do the same. Watch the eye movement, facial expressions, and body posture of the governor and the other man (who quickly leaves).

I am not trying to get political. There are major safety issues. If there are not human bodies out there, then what is the Federal Government trying to protect?

I don't have answers, only questions.

Folks we are walking a very fine line here between the right to know and the need to know.

We live in a post 911 and Kitrina world. Media and officials are faced with a true quandary.

One thing we have learned in the mental health profession is that Post Traumatic Stress Disorder can be induced not only in those enduring the stress but those observing and closely identifying with the stress. After 911 there was a large contingent of folks nationwide who exhibited PSTD symptoms linked to watching the coverage of the tragedy, particularly video of the tragedy at the twin towers. Post Katrina we learned that for folks already stressed by evacuation it can be a compounding stressor to observe house by house search video especially in their neighborhoods.

The other thing we have learned as a people is that government officials will attempt to manipulate the media into complicity in outright deception of the populace which is absolutely intolerable in a supposedly free and open society. (As an overeducated Red Neck my personal motto is "You might take my gun but you will never take my pen.")

In spite of any previous service she may have provided to her community it is obvious that the Mayor of Galveston has been reduced to a Criminally Incompetent bumbler in the face of a crisis. Were she have to straightforwardly have stated something to the effect that she was willing to "embed" a select number of pool reporters with the emergency response teams with the stipulation that only verbal reports were allowed for X # of days with all video and photographic material released to the public at the end of the black out and appointed a blue ribbon commission to review any and all information relevant to the situation (including all records of inter agency communications) and issue a full accounting of mistakes made and lessons learned within a reasonable time, the public might have accepted it. As it is we are only left with questions and suspicions.

What should be done I do not know but the current situation is unacceptable.
1004. Patrap
As folks returning may or may not know. The Gutting and Removal of Flooded Property,especially homes is a Hard ,heartbreaking job.Not only physically,but it is a emotional roller coaster to be frank.
But it will Have to be done when you return.



So here's a tip..and a Must have item.

Why is wearing a N95 mask so important?

Wearing a snug-fitting N95 mask protects your respiratory system and lungs from exposure to mold particulates, including spores and other allergenic particles.


P-95 MASK










Be smart and use the Guidelines to take care of your health. Have a Mask for when you return.
Refrigerators and wet carpet and other stuff Mildew and mold rapidly. Fast.

So be sure to consider that as a beginning. You will be ahead of the game. Loads and heaps of everything needs to be out the house. So that the sheetrock can be removed,
Take Pics and video...

Be strong and help one another.

1005. drj27
any one think the fl panhande will get a storm this year
Quoting drj27:
any one think the fl panhande will get a storm this year


I hope not.
1007. drj27
Quoting LeopardMoth:


I hope not.
yea me and u both
1008. SEFL
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
Another bad thing about Hurricanes:



Yikes! Lol.


Very small one...not much to be afraid of!! :)
1009. texmex
power back on YAY! celing fell in dining room/kitchen/hall/bedroom... messy & yucky. through our neighbourhood here at gulfgate in southeast houston, every block has at least 1-2 houses with trees on them. it looks like a war zone here.
for anyone interested, whole foods on kirby at alabama is selling 20 lb bags of ice limit 2 per person only $3 each. we were in & out in 20 mins (including short line outside & shopping/checkout).
anyone know how i can find the radar image of the exact track inland ike took through houston?
Quoting Patrap:
Be smart and use the Guidelines to take care of your health. Have a Mask for when you return.
Refrigerators and wet carpet and other stuff Mildew and mold rapidly. Fast.

So be sure to consider that as a beginning. You will be ahead of the game. Loads and heaps of everything needs to be out the house. So that the sheetrock can be removed,
Take Pics and video...

Be strong and help one another.



Great advice, Patrap. You are right, the mold and mildew are amazingly quick to strike. So many people end up sick because of it.
Quoting texmex:
power back on YAY! celing fell in dining room/kitchen/hall/bedroom... messy & yucky. through our neighbourhood here at gulfgate in southeast houston, every block has at least 1-2 houses with trees on them. it looks like a war zone here.
for anyone interested, whole foods on kirby at alabama is selling 20 lb bags of ice limit 2 per person only $3 each. we were in & out in 20 mins (including short line outside & shopping/checkout).
anyone know how i can find the radar image of the exact track inland ike took through houston?


Glad you made it through okay!

I'd help you on the other, but I'm signing out, myself.
Orca, I'll ask you about the earthquakes another time. I've got to go to bed, or the kids will be ready for school before I am, LOL!

Good night, everybody!
Quoting tkeith:
Presslord: the Jesuits did a good job with you and Pat...


From your mouth to God's ear.
Hmmm. Boliver.

I don't like the sound of any of this.

Fred
1015. Patrap
..dem Nuns wernt too nice though..tkeith

Mean as Snakes sum of dem.

I still cant look at a wooden ruler without wincing..

LOL
I was able to watch various telemetry devices as the hurricane eye passed over Galveston. The Galveston Pier buoy registered a maximum surge of 13 feet just before the eye passed. This compares pretty well to the 1900 storm height of 15 feet.

Several things saved Galveston compared to 1900:
1. Better building standards than 1900 (potentially, at least).

2. The sea wall that broke the wave action - the wall was definitely being overtopped by the swell but it's the wave action that really destroys buildings.

3. The majority of the island has been raised by - up to 17ft - since 1900, from dredging of the shipping channel. Coupled with the sea wall, this is pretty important but often neglected.

... As for Bolivar et al, it looks pretty grim. They got the same or higher surge without the protection of a sea wall or artificially raised land height.

I think that the destruction, and casualty rates, in Bolivar is going to compare very closely to the 1900 flood.

The question of media access is a tricky one - the last thing anyone needs to find out via the news is that their loved one is dead from seeing their corpse.
Wetwedder

My friend, you are way off base altogether. The beginning of income tax only affected the wealthy, the reverse of what is true today--now the middle class caries the weight. The only real revenue collections occurred after WII.

Link

Link
998

Quoting moonlightcowboy:

966... I suspect the real thanks goes to the fact that the largest storm surge went north of the island. Another appreciated aspect is that Ike didn't have longer over water and did not become even more deadly. Had it been further slightly further south and another level or two higher of storm, I doubt the seawall would have been much of a barrier.

That really wasn't the point anyways; rather just a reply that I'm sure ice wasn't first and foremost in the minds of folks that survived back then... ,


I do not disagree with anything you wrote. It just happens that I am a student of Texas history and culture. So, you all are getting stuck with my comments [sheepish grin]. Storms and the weather has always played an incredible roll in the history of our State--and my family.

[Sorry if I screwed-up the code on this one.]
Rescuers Fear for Those Stuck on Texas Peninsula
Published: Monday, September 15, 2008 at 6:01 a.m.
Last Modified: Monday, September 15, 2008 at 4:15 a.m.
CHAMBERS COUNTY, Tex. — The rescue trucks and ambulances, neatly arranged in a double column, sat waiting at the point where State Highway 124, the road to the Bolivar Peninsula, disappeared underneath a storm-bloated ocean. Early Sunday afternoon, that was the closest the rescue workers could get to the string of little towns they had fled two days before as Hurricane Ike approached, leaving behind what they estimated were a few hundred holdouts.

As they waited, stymied, for the waters to recede, their minds were occupied with visions of the worst. “There’s going to be substantial deaths,” said the emergency medical services coordinator for High Island, Robert Isaacks. “It looks pretty grim, to tell you the truth.”

He added, “The water’s slowly but surely going down now, but it’s not going down fast enough for us.”

http://www.gainesville.com/article/20080915/ZNYT02/809150322/1004/living&title=Rescuers_Fear_for_Th ose_Stuck_on_Texas_Peninsula
1018. LOL, Celia! Code? Here? At WU? :)

...there is no code, at least none that I've seen! Great post and keep posting! At least it's dicernable and interesting to read! Thanks!
Quoting mgotthard:
I was able to watch various telemetry devices as the hurricane eye passed over Galveston. The Galveston Pier buoy registered a maximum surge of 13 feet just before the eye passed. This compares pretty well to the 1900 storm height of 15 feet.

Several things saved Galveston compared to 1900:
1. Better building standards than 1900 (potentially, at least).

2. The sea wall that broke the wave action - the wall was definitely being overtopped by the swell but it's the wave action that really destroys buildings.

3. The majority of the island has been raised by - up to 17ft - since 1900, from dredging of the shipping channel. Coupled with the sea wall, this is pretty important but often neglected.

... As for Bolivar et al, it looks pretty grim. They got the same or higher surge without the protection of a sea wall or artificially raised land height.

I think that the destruction, and casualty rates, in Bolivar is going to compare very closely to the 1900 flood.

The question of media access is a tricky one - the last thing anyone needs to find out via the news is that their loved one is dead from seeing their corpse.
I agree with you on most of your points, but one thing you mentioned and I've heard others say this also, Galveston was not raised to 17 feet. It was raised but not that high. The seawall is 17 feet in height but if you travel any of the streets that run perpendicular into the seawall then you will notice the increase in elevation of the street as you drive up to the seawall.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
bodies


Ok, I'm still baffled. It's not like Ike was a covert hurricane that they government didn't want the public to know about :) Mandatory evacs were ordered--if large numbers of people died it would not have been a surprise. Sad and horrific but not a surprise. Hell, it was predicted! And certainly not something that could be blamed on the government -local or federal. Seriously, am I missing something?

That being said, I have noticed that the media does not seem to be concentrating on the misery for very long as they did with Katrina. Maybe it's that the novelty of extreme hurricane destruction and human misery is old hat now and won't get them their coveted ratings. Or maybe it's just plain apathy.

My prayers are with all of you in Texas.
Dana

1024. rikster
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Folks we are walking a very fine line here between the right to know and the need to know.

We live in a post 911 and Kitrina world. Media and officials are faced with a true quandary.

One thing we have learned in the mental health profession is that Post Traumatic Stress Disorder can be induced not in those enduring the stress but those observing and closely identifying with the stress. After 911 there were a large contingent of folks nationwide who exhibited PSTD symptoms linked to watching the coverage of the tragedy particularly video of the tragedy at the twin towers. Post Katrina we learned that for folks already stressed by evacuation it can be a compounding stressor to observe house by house search video especially in their neighborhoods.

The other thing we have learned as a people is that government officials will attempt to manipulate the media into complicity in outright deception of the populace which is absolutely intolerable in a supposedly free and open society. (As an overeducated Red Neck my personal motto is "You might take my gun but you will never take my pen."

In spite of any previous service she may have provided to her community it is obvious that the Mayor of Galveston has been reduced to a Criminally Incompetent bumbler in the face of a crisis. Were she have to straightforwardly have stated something to the effect that she was willing to "embed" a select number of pool reporters with the emergency response teams with the stipulation that only verbal reports were allowed for X # of days with all video and photographic material released to the public at the end of the black out and appointed a blue ribbon commission to review any and all information relevant to the situation (including all records of inter agency communications) and issue a full accounting of mistakes made and lessons learned within a reasonable time, the public might have accepted it. As it is we are only left with questions and suspicions.

What should be done I do not know but the current situation is unacceptable.


Great the scopes monkey trial of 2008. The government knows whats best for you to know and see. I'm gonna be really pissed if this turns out to be true. What is should be known.
It was Benjamin Franklin who said, "If one is willing then give up their liberty in the name of security and safety than they deserve neither." Was it not? Someone back in the day said and I believe to be true.
This has probably been stated earlier, but in this case I don't mind being the annoying person that sends out old information....

Earlier today, I tried to send a donation to the fund that Pat, Press and others setup. I couldn't find a link to PayPal, and I gave up in frustration.

I'm am happy to report that I have tried again and the link was there. It worked like a charm!

For those that wish to contribute, but were stymied earlier...please, give it another shot.
Good night all! If anyone still on here.
Quoting NoMeteorsInOlogy:
Wetwedder

My friend, you are way off base altogether. The beginning of income tax only affected the wealthy, the reverse of what is true today--now the middle class caries the weight. The only real revenue collections occurred after WII.

Link

Link


Did I give an analysis of tax rates and brackets ? Did I say anything about that ?
NO. Real revenue collections happened in cases where it was APPLICABLE from the very start of the Federal Income Tax system. The rate charts are on Wikipedia. Look them up.
Better yet, let me post them here. To find out the income "triggers" you will need to do further research.

Partial History of
U.S. Federal Income Tax Rates
Since 1913
Applicable
Year Income
brackets First
bracket Top
bracket Source
1913-1915 - 1% 7% Census
1916 - 2% 15% Census
1917 - 2% 67% Census
1918 - 6% 73% Census
1919-1920 - 4% 73% Census
1921 - 4% 73% Census
1922 - 4% 56% Census
1923 - 3% 56% Census
1924 - 1.5% 46% Census
1925-1928 - 1.5% 25% Census
1929 - 0.375% 24% Census
1930-1931 - 1.125% 25% Census
1932-1933 - 4% 63% Census
1934-1935 - 4% 63% Census
1936-1939 - 4% 79% Census
1940 - 4.4% 81.1% Census
1941 - 10% 81% Census
1942-1943 - 19% 88% Census
1944-1945 - 23% 94% Census
1946-1947 - 19% 86.45% Census
1948-1949 - 16.6% 82.13% Census
1950 - 17.4% 84.36% Census
1951 - 20.4% 91% Census
1952-1953 - 22.2% 92% Census
1954-1963 - 20% 91% Census
1964 - 16% 77% Census
1965-1967 - 14% 70% Census
1968 - 14% 75.25% Census
1969 - 14% 77% Census
1970 - 14% 71.75% Census
1971-1981 15 brackets 14% 70% IRS
1982-1986 12 brackets 12% 50% IRS
1987 5 brackets 11% 38.5% IRS
1988-1990 3 brackets 15% 33% IRS
1991-1992 3 brackets 15% 31% IRS
1993-2000 5 brackets 15% 39.6% IRS
2001 5 brackets 15% 39.1% IRS
2002 6 brackets 10% 38.6% IRS
2003-2008 6 brackets 10% 35% IRS

AND SEFL does not know what he is talking about either. Billionaires paid much more in federal income tax in the past as compared to today. Actually, make that MILLIONAIRES, back when a million was worth something. There were few billionaires in America then. Few regular wage earners paid any sort of income tax prior to 1953 or so because they did not qualify. The high rates on the Super-rich were basically a corporate tax, though there were corporate taxes too. There has never been a great wealth disparity in our society since the 1920's as there is right now.
Nobody was hiding their assets in The Cayman Islands in 1920.

Howdy, Cowboy!

Evenin', BeachFoxx!
And Warren Buffett agrees with me by the way, not with you SEFL.
I was going to suggest, with the tropics being quiet and all, that maybe we discuss something like ENSO, or the MJO finally moving along.

I see, however, that the topic *a-hem* has moved elsewhere...
Hey, Sully! Good night, Sully!

POST STORM DANGERS from IKE.


MLC <--------out for some shut-eye!

Have a good sleep, all!
Wedwedder,

I seldom mention or discuss politics. My apologies for going against my own rule...
For the record, I do not know you, nor do I owe you any explanation as to why I may agree w/ SEFL.

Hey Sully, Shen, nice to see you!

Night Cowboy! : )

To all in TX/LA thoughts and prayers are with you!

Night to all...

Peace be with you!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
You know nothing about me. This is a weather blog... not politics. I stand by my grandmother's viewpoint. Never discuss politics or religion. And I will add that neither should be discussed w/ someone you do not know or trust.

Good evening...
Quoting WetWedder:

You can't defend your ideas. You lack the active vocabulary.
Weather Blog!
ATTENTION this is a Tropical Storm Blog Not a soapbox for Politics or Income Tax If you waaant that go to a political blog. cease or be reported to Admin
Quoting sullivanweather:
I was going to suggest, with the tropics being quiet and all, that maybe we discuss something like ENSO, or the MJO finally moving along.

I see, however, that the topic *a-hem* has moved elsewhere...
Great Idea now back to the Tropics
Tropic21,

My apologies, I took the bait and should not have done so. Back to weather!

tropics21 is right. All that is going to happen is people getting banned.

BeachFoxx, NoMeteors - please guys - it isn't worth it.
Quoting drj27:
any one think the fl panhande will get a storm this year


We've got 70-some days left in the season - and that assumes the season actually ends on time.

A bit early to say if we will or won't get one. Just stay prepared and do what you need to do if one does come our way.
Houston Channel 13 weatherman just said that there is nothing to worry about in the tropics for at least 2-3 weeks.

Alll-righty then......
One last post:

Searchers fear more grim discoveries in Galveston - complete article from the Houston Chronicle.

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas warned that her city was heading toward a "downward spiral" and is not fit for habitation. Residents who evacuated are not being allowed back.

"There is nothing to come here for right now," Thomas said. "Please leave. I am asking people to leave."

Meanwhile, the hunt for survivors goes on. Searchers have accounted for 1,500 thus far in a house-to-house operation.

The death toll is expected to rise as the waters recede and searchers are able to cover more areas, said city officials, who brought in a refrigerated mobile morgue.



...sure isn't sounding good at all!



"I lost everything," lamented Joe Mendoza, sitting shirtless on a chair outside his muddy garage. A soaked mattress and other furniture was out on the front and side lawns.

Mendoza, 57, has lived his whole life in Galveston. He stayed because he was considered a critical worker: a heavy equipment operator for the city. His story was similar to others who stayed because they or their parents stayed during Carla, a Category 5 storm, or because they never believed that Ike, considered puny by comparison to Carla, would
pack such a wallop.



....uuuuuummm, doesn't "evacuate" mean "leave dammit!? If it's safe for workers, etc, to stay on the island - it sends a signal that it could be safe for others, too. This is really just one more example of why there needs to be a new system. I've had it with trusting the SS scale, and quite frankly, the heavy reliance on the models, too. It's time for some good 0ld-fashioned common sense meteorology to be used first and foremost around and with the technology.

Hopefully the season will wind down I know wilma came late in 2005 but I don't think the same conditions exist now as then that was a crazy year,hopefully the worst ones are over and Maybe we could get a couple of weak ones but think they may be fish storms I never feel relaxed until the 30th of sept and then slowly ease back to normal mode mid october
My thought that was always in the back of my mind looking at Bolivar and the Crystal beach area is they might have been swept back toward the mainland and some may never be found with the amount of surge that came in
But even though it was a cat 2 they were warned that because of the size of the storm windfield,the surge created by it would be compared to a cat 4 and they still didn't listen. hey I'm on a Barrier Island and if they say Leave I leave
What really gets me is the reaction of the mayor when the "certain death" quote was tossed out at that news conference. She she looked genuinely surprised that someone had said such a thing.

I really can't believe that as vulnerable as Galveston is, nobody there gets the updates from the NHC?

Not everyone (obviously) takes a pro-active approach to hurricane season. The average person tends to listen to what the TV weatherman and local authorities tell them.

I find it unbelievable that in the "Information Age" people can be so uninformed.
- Three days before landfall. Some of the models were still pointing at sTX.

- Two days before landfall. The NHC was still releasing discussions that said "Ike was xxx miles seast of Corpus Christi! (moving west or wnwest)!"

- One day before landfall. Those that had made up their minds had evacuated. But, it was getting too late for those that still weren't sure where the storm was going but where hoping otherwise; and, for those that decided to ride it out. Simply - it had become too late to evac.

- Hours before the storm. There was no way out! People had no choice then.



While I maintain that I have the utmost respect for the NHC and all related forecasting entities, I'm still saying that this was never really properly communicated by them. And, it seems the mandatory evac came too late - that's a fault of local leadership. I keep remembering one of our bloggers saying "there's no mandatory evac, no talk of evac," etc, etc.

Combine all of that with general apathy and experience with previous, weaker storms and a changed geological and populated demographics, apparently the message was never really successfully communicated. It's expected that some die-hards will not evac in any storm - a few here, a hundred or two there, but not 20-25,000 people. That many people are not that dumb and unexposed to relavent, emergency information. With Katrina there was plenty of warning (although local, state and feds couldn't get their acts together in LA without stepping over each others' precious egos and get the job done right there either). Conversely, Galveston did not only not get the death message, it didn't get it remotely on time imo.



I'm telling you it was not communicated successfully and the breach to evac was too much, too little, too late for many
The NHC said that if you stay you will die well before the window of opportunity to leave the barrier islands had closed. Admittedly, I didn't follow what the mayor said on the local channels, but even I, a dimwit watching the news from his barcolounger in S.W. Fl, knew that this was a storm to flee from.

What more can be done???
That's very true - there was a lot of uncertainty on the track.

But... How long was Galveston in the cone? I honestly don't remember. But I think the focus on the black line could have been a bit of a culprit here too.

People tend to think "It will never happen to me" and get complacent. Human nature I guess.

Even now, as bad as things are in Galveston - the mayor is saying the city is not habitable and everybody needs to leave, yet some refuse still.

For rational critters, humans do some really odd things.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 160532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

--

My, doesn't that look glorious?




Quoting Cotillion:

My, doesn't that look glorious?






That it does. Been a long time since we saw one like that.

Let's hope we see a bunch more just like it.
I have a book on my shelves titled A Wind to Shake the World, The Story of the 1938 Hurricane (by Everett S. Allen, published in 1976). It is a compilation of accounts of those who experienced the effects of the 1938 hurricane that struck the coasts of Rhode Island, Connecticut and Long island, and the devastation left to tell the tale of those who perished. The brief images and descriptions of Port Bolivar are reminiscent of the effects of the '38 hurricane on Fort Road in Watch Hill, Rhode island. Fort Road stretched along the barrier beach that separated the mainland from the Atlantic Ocean. Like the surge that hit Port Bolivar, the true height can only be surmised by the damage that remained, or as was the case along Fort Road, the absence of an entire community of summer homes. A precious few souls rode debris or sections of their homes clear across the swollen, raging water of the bay to the mainland, but most were swept away with their homes, leaving behind a few concrete piers or foundations. The summer cottages on Fort Road were merely stick frame construction, no match for the huge surge of the unannounced hurricane. The surge that hit Port Bolivar must have been similarly tremendous, and from the few posted photos, their fate appears to have been sadly similar to those of the Fort Hill residents 70 years ago. We can only hope that some of the residents who remained in Port Bolivar were able to survive.
IMD Bulletin #4 (0300Z 16Sept)
=====================================
At 08:30 IST, The Depression (BOB04-2008) over northwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and intensified into a deep depression. The Deep Depression lays centered at 20.0N 87.5E, about 130 kms southeast of Chandbali. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross Orissa coast near Chandbali today afternoon/evening.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Orissa during next 48 hours. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Chhatisgarh and isolated heavy fall is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition is very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 30-35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. Sea condition is very rough to high.

In association with the system, broken intense to very intense convective clouds are seen over the area north of 15N and west of 89E. Moderate to intense convection over the Bay of Bengal between 13.0 - 15.0N northwest of 86E are also seen.

The deep convection is sheared to the southwest of the center. The system is located to the south of the upper level anticyclone with strong divergence and easterly flow over the region. This is helping to maintain the deep convection in association with the system. The region of depression is under moderate vertical wind shear.

Under this scenario, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwest direction and cross Orissa coast near Chandbali today between 1100 and 1500 PM UTC.
1061. exexec
Kills me how some people want to blame the government in times of weather tragedies.

You don't have to be in the primary evacuation zone to evacuate. If it's going to be within even 300 miles of you, take no chances. LEAVE. That's why the NHC calls it a "cone of uncertainty."

The government doesn't have the money, people or resources to get every single person out of harm's way. The death of personal responsibility continues, I guess. Easier to blame to government because it either didn't get you out of town or didn't rebuild your house for you on their dime. At some point, we have to admit that people who choose to live on the coast bear some responsibility for their choices. Nobody wants to hear that, because it's cold, but it's also the dead-bang truth.

As for restrictions on the media during a time of crisis, the government can go get bent. The media is control of the message, which they should be. The source or subject should never have control over the message. That's a recipe for burying the truth.
We're in the Louisville KY area and the Sunday winds really caught everyone by surprise here. Almost all the damage was from trees taking out power lines and landing on houses and cars. We're originally from the New Orleans area, so this looks VERY familiar!

The local electric company is stretched pretty thin, with some of its crews in Texas. The damage area includes most of the western half of KY. Repairs will take up to two weeks. We were very lucky to get power restored at 4am this morning, 38 hours after it went out.

Like others have noted, most people are totally unprepared for any kind of event like this, and don't know how to do simple things like opening their garage door when the power is off! Our area gets tornadoes, ice storms, and snow events -- but people still seem to need batteries and flashlights. While I certainly don't have everything I might need during an extended outage, I can survive for a few days without major problems.

Best wishes to all of you who were impacted by Ike and any other storms.
unbelievable! Here it goes again...the fingerpointing. "Leave or face certain death" That sounds pretty crystal clear to me. Now our wonderful news media is going to start the blame game again. Can't we just focus on how to help these poor people?
Quoting Cotillion:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 160532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

--

My, doesn't that look glorious?






Thats going to change soon, I'm sure your aware.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats going to change soon, I'm sure your aware.


Yeah, but it sure is nice while it lasts. :-)
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Yeah, but it sure is nice while it lasts. :-)


I second that
good morning stormW
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Mornin' StormW
well...the blog is kind of sluggish...either that or not many people like it at 6:30 in the morning =) In any case i have to get ready for school. bb this PM
Good Morning Senior Chief
StormW...
Thanks for the insight and continued weather education you have provided a newbie like me over the last 4 years. I also enjoy your dry sense of humor in tense and troubled times!

De.. from West Palm Beach
Local news in Houston saying 16 people found alive on the Bolivar so far....
1075. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats going to change soon, I'm sure your aware.


I don't see anything on the horizon. The ECMWF does show a system affecting Central America in about a week, but nothing affecting the USA.

I'm sure you're aware in 75 days, it's over.
Good morning all. Just saw an interesting clip on CNN headline news with google earth depictions of before and after in TX. Wow, wow, wow. The shoreline is completely changed in the area. I don't think the increased shoreline and beach is a positive thing in this case. Another example that the SS scale is possibly relied on too much because this looks like Cat5 devastation rather than Cat2. Since the SS scale only relates to wind speed we will have new reason to categorize on total potential damage (wind/surge/rain/size as an example).
Quoting AirTrafficMan:
Good morning all. Just saw an interesting clip on CNN headline news with google earth depictions of before and after in TX. Wow, wow, wow. The shoreline is completely changed in the area. I don't think the increased shoreline and beach is a positive thing in this case. Another example that the SS scale is possibly relied on too much because this looks like Cat5 devastation rather than Cat2. Since the SS scale only relates to wind speed we will have new reason to categorize on total potential damage (wind/surge/rain/size as an example).


they should use a scale like the F scale for tornadoes. The F scale is related to damage it does.
1079. Bugette
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
- Three days before landfall. Some of the models were still pointing at sTX.

- Two days before landfall. The NHC was still releasing discussions that said "Ike was xxx miles seast of Corpus Christi! (moving west or wnwest)!"

- One day before landfall. Those that had made up their minds had evacuated. But, it was getting too late for those that still weren't sure where the storm was going but where hoping otherwise; and, for those that decided to ride it out. Simply - it had become too late to evac.

- Hours before the storm. There was no way out! People had no choice then.



While I maintain that I have the utmost respect for the NHC and all related forecasting entities, I'm still saying that this was never really properly communicated by them. And, it seems the mandatory evac came too late - that's a fault of local leadership. I keep remembering one of our bloggers saying "there's no mandatory evac, no talk of evac," etc, etc.

Combine all of that with general apathy and experience with previous, weaker storms and a changed geological and populated demographics, apparently the message was never really successfully communicated. It's expected that some die-hards will not evac in any storm - a few here, a hundred or two there, but not 20-25,000 people. That many people are not that dumb and unexposed to relavent, emergency information. With Katrina there was plenty of warning (although local, state and feds couldn't get their acts together in LA without stepping over each others' precious egos and get the job done right there either). Conversely, Galveston did not only not get the death message, it didn't get it remotely on time imo.



I'm telling you it was not communicated successfully and the breach to evac was too much, too little, too late for many
I beg to differ with you on this one. My husband and I have a 90' steel hull shrimp boat in Freeport, TX. By Wednesday morning before the storm there were mandatory evacuation orders. The orders were, mandatory evacuation and take what you need, secure you homes and property and leave, if you try to come back after 10 AM you will not be allowed to return. They had the roads blocked so you could not get back in without an extremely good reason. The people that didn't heed the orders on those barrier islands made an extremely tragic mistake of their own accord. We had several friends that lived on Crystal Beach and they left when the orders were given. They have lived there for many years. Their homes are gone. They got the information to leave. So the others got that info also. It is sad to see what happened there and I will pray for the families. Maybe next time more people will listen and spare their families the heartbreak of wondering what happened to them and where are they.
1080. WxLogic
Morning...
1081. KBH
Quoting StormW:
1068. HurrikanEB 6:29 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
good morning stormW

1069. CaptnDan142 6:29 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Mornin' StormW




Back at ya!

StormW, this 92L thing looking odd in my region of B'dos. Looks like it is heading east to build up them moving west after it strengthens,...ops, noaa moved 92L off the chart
Yes, something like the F scale. I am always amazed that a Cat3 is a "Major" hurricane as compared to a Cat2. With Ike there was only 1 mph difference in the distinction yet the damage caused by Ike was pretty "Major" in my observations. I wonder how many people would react differently if they heard a "Major Hurricane" was coming there way as opposed to a "Strong Cat2 Hurricane". This is a very simple way to improve our preparations and planning for the impending storm. Your basic citizen is not looking at all factors (like us weather geeks) but rather relying on the media/gov't to tell us how bad it is going to be.

Sigh...off my soapbox now as I gotta go get on a plane for business. LOL..knowing the air traffic system in the US I will always try to fly early am and ALWAYS avoid New York City after 3pm. And, if Chicago/Atlanta have bad weather (rain/low viz) then I look for alternate routes.
Good morning everyone.

Who brought the coffee this morning?
when fay was over top us in central florida I swear she thought herself as a hurricane not a sixty mile a hr tropical storm
1086. plylox
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
- Three days before landfall. Some of the models were still pointing at sTX.

- Two days before landfall. The NHC was still releasing discussions that said "Ike was xxx miles seast of Corpus Christi! (moving west or wnwest)!"

- One day before landfall. Those that had made up their minds had evacuated. But, it was getting too late for those that still weren't sure where the storm was going but where hoping otherwise; and, for those that decided to ride it out. Simply - it had become too late to evac.

- Hours before the storm. There was no way out! People had no choice then.



While I maintain that I have the utmost respect for the NHC and all related forecasting entities, I'm still saying that this was never really properly communicated by them. And, it seems the mandatory evac came too late - that's a fault of local leadership. I keep remembering one of our bloggers saying "there's no mandatory evac, no talk of evac," etc, etc.

Combine all of that with general apathy and experience with previous, weaker storms and a changed geological and populated demographics, apparently the message was never really successfully communicated. It's expected that some die-hards will not evac in any storm - a few here, a hundred or two there, but not 20-25,000 people. That many people are not that dumb and unexposed to relavent, emergency information. With Katrina there was plenty of warning (although local, state and feds couldn't get their acts together in LA without stepping over each others' precious egos and get the job done right there either). Conversely, Galveston did not only not get the death message, it didn't get it remotely on time imo.



I'm telling you it was not communicated successfully and the breach to evac was too much, too little, too late for many
.......And that is the truth! Without this blog, I certainly would be among the casualties. My family and I evacuated on Wednesday, BEFORE there was any talk by the media or government that this storm was coming here. My husband was laughed at when he told his boss that we were leaving, then became the laughing stock of the entire company as word spread that he had taken vacation the rest of the week. There was fear of another Rita-evacuation disaster with over 100 people dead just from evacuation problems, so it was played "down". All I have to say is THANK YOU to all on here because without you guys, especially Storm, Ike, Patrap and many others,,, we would have stayed during this disaster. Thanks again to everyone on this blog, and Thank you Dr. Masters for providing us with great info!!
1087. IKE
00Z NOGAPS shows a system just east of the Yucatan in 144 hours...Link Agrees with the latest ECMWF.
1088. IKE
Quoting plylox:
.......And that is the truth! Without this blog, I certainly would be among the casualties. My family and I evacuated on Wednesday, BEFORE there was any talk by the media or government that this storm was coming here. My husband was laughed at when he told his boss that we were leaving, then became the laughing stock of the entire company as word spread that he had taken vacation the rest of the week. There was fear of another Rita-evacuation disaster with over 100 people dead just from evacuation problems, so it was played "down". All I have to say is THANK YOU to all on here because without you guys, especially Storm, Ike, Patrap and many others,,, we would have stayed during this disaster. Thanks again to everyone on this blog, and Thank you Dr. Masters for providing us with great info!!


You're welcome. I'm glad I helped in some way to help at least one family survive. That makes me feel worthwhile on here.
wow look aat the ocean temperature map in the west pacific, i guess that the black dot means 90+ waters Link

got to go study
1091. KBH
Quoting StormW:
1077. Thundercloud01221991 7:23 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting AirTrafficMan:
....Since the SS scale only relates to wind speed we will have new reason to categorize on total potential damage (wind/surge/rain/size as an example).


they should use a scale like the F scale for tornadoes. The F scale is related to damage it does.


I was thinking...maybe they could use the info from the Integrated Kenetic Energy scale like Dr. Masters posted a few days ago. Use that info based on the wind fields, for whatever category storm...and combine it with the Saffir Simpson Scale. For instance, Dr. Masters posted a Surge Wave Damage Potential Scale...think it was like from 1-6. Thake that for each storm, and kinda combine it. They'd have to revise the SS scale, with the explanation of the designation, in regaards as to what type of potential damage (like with IKE...Cat2...but here's the type of damage comparable to....).

I'm thinking a designation in the lines of something like this...Category1;SWPD 3 or so on. SWPD being Surge Wave Damage Potential.


Storm, I agree with a surge scale, but I would use letters A,B,C,D,E..etc. It would be more easily to track the changes in a system. E.g a Cat2E system could be equivalent to a Cat 5 in total damage.......both wind speed and degree of surge could be monitored.
You know I really don't see why people didn't leave.(who where on the islands) I would have if I had been there.
Hopefully it will be a good lesson learned and people won't stay so much in the future.
I live in KY and have to say I enjoyed the winds from Ike!
My symphony goes out to the families of all who have lost there lives in TX and the Midwest, as well as all who have had damage to there homes.
1094. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 13N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 20N59W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 07N-20N
BETWEEN 50W-58W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCT...AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 70W-74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 73W-83W.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF BELIZE TO 06N.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 08N40W 11N62W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 10W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
A 1016 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N96W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO ALONG 21N97W
25N103W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN
93W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W...WHICH DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF
90W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. EXPECT... LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND THE LOW DISSIPATES. ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH
SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS
SEEN ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF
67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N
AND E OF 65W. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A
WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W. A 1010 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N-34N BETWEEN 50W-55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW
FROM THE HIGH TO 26N58W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. THREE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N59W...23N56W...AND AT
27N44W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE
WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA
I like the suspense of watching systems develop out of almost nothing. Watching the models debating whether there is too much windshear or too close to land ext I like that. I can do without the damage they can cause though. Have a good day.
1096. MahFL
One thing that surprised me in the area's where there is total devistation is it's not immediatly obvious there was an extra row or two houses there before, and even the pylons and slabs are gone from the first row or two. For some its the end of there way of life.
1097. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
00Z NOGAPS shows a system just east of the Yucatan in 144 hours...Link Agrees with the latest ECMWF.


NOGAPS was developing it a couple days before ECMWF... so I guess if ECMWF is starting to trend towards that solution then we might be looking into something late this week into next week.

The big question would be how the steering flow will look like by then.
1098. RutRo
I think the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche should be watched as there is an old surface trough axis in the area with divergence aloft and ul high becoming established. Not much there this morning, but the conditions are right over the next couple of days.JMO.
1099. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


NOGAPS was developing it a couple days before ECMWF... so I guess if ECMWF is starting to trend towards that solution then we might be looking into something late this week into next week.

The big question would be how the steering flow will look like by then.


Right now the GFS is showing it crossing the Yucatan and getting into the BOC. Better hope there's no cold front heading south to pick it up or the GOM may be open again.
1100. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:


Right now the GFS is showing it crossing the Yucatan and getting into the BOC. Better hope there's no cold front heading south to pick it up or the GOM may be open again.


Indeed...
1101. 2ifbyC
Quoting SEFL:


You may be right about the origins of the tax, but you are dead wrong about who carries the burden:




Awww, come on now. You're using facts to shatter the 'smoke and mirrors'! Good job!!! 8-)
1102. IKE
Fall is approaching when it's this cool in NE Arkansas....

MyWeatherLab.com, College City, Arkansas (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Clear
49.8 °F
Clear

Windchill: 50 °F
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.23 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 274 ft
1104. Michfan
Good morning everyone.
The media needs to stop using the term "WEAK" when describing a hurricane that can confuse some people, especially those that have never experenced a storm before. A weak Cat 3 is still a very dangerous storm. For some reason people even local government officals hear that term "weak" and don't associate the number afterward as being that important.....there is no such thing as a "Weak Hurricane" especially a weak Cat 2, 3 or even a 4 but the media and even the Weather Channel will refer to a hurricne as just that, when the winds are just above the next level.
Good morning Mich...
Quoting IKE:
Fall is approaching when it's this cool in NE Arkansas....

MyWeatherLab.com, College City, Arkansas (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Clear
49.8 °F
Clear

Windchill: 50 °F
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 47 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 30.23 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 274 ft
And most of us are ready for fall and no more storms!
1108. WxLogic
Quoting StormW:
1097. WxLogic 8:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting IKE:
00Z NOGAPS shows a system just east of the Yucatan in 144 hours...Link Agrees with the latest ECMWF.


NOGAPS was developing it a couple days before ECMWF... so I guess if ECMWF is starting to trend towards that solution then we might be looking into something late this week into next week.

The big question would be how the steering flow will look like by then.


I'm workin' on it.


All right!!! StormW... looking forward to what you think might be shaping up. Want to see if it matches or if I at least come close to what potentially could set up.
1109. Vero1
..
1105. Bones429 12:07 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
The media needs to stop using the term "WEAK" when describing a hurricane that can confuse some people, especially those that have never experenced a storm before. A weak Cat 3 is still a very dangerous storm. For some reason people even local government officals hear that term "weak" and don't associate the number afterward as being that important.....there is no such thing as a "Weak Hurricane" especially a weak Cat 2, 3 or even a 4 but the media and even the Weather Channel will refer to a hurricne as just that, when the winds are just above the next level.


I agree 100%. When I'm on air, I always say high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2, and never refer to a hurricane as weak. No such thing.
1111. IKE
Quoting conchygirl:
And most of us are ready for fall and no more storms!


I think the Cape Verde season is close to being over...as far as making it all the way across the Atlantic, like Ike did.

Need to look closer to home...islands and USA.
1112. WxLogic
Quoting RutRo:
I think the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche should be watched as there is an old surface trough axis in the area with divergence aloft and ul high becoming established. Not much there this morning, but the conditions are right over the next couple of days.JMO.


Indeed... the MJO is definitely showing us its intention as it keeps moving E... currently plenty of moisture in the Gulf and Western Carribean.
1113. Vero1
72 hr Surface Forcast.

Quoting StormW:

I kinda agree...but I think the numeric way would cut out an extra step...you assign letters, then folks are gonna want to know...what's that mean...then it would have to be explained on the new scale with the Surge Potential numbers anyway.


You know - that may actually not be a bad thing.

Right now, people figure they pretty well know what the SS means. Maybe if they started seeing something and they didn't know what it meant, it might get them paying attention and if they aren't careful, they might actually learn something in the process. ;-)

Anything that raises awareness....
1105. Bones429 12:07 PM GMT on September 16, 2008
The media needs to stop using the term "WEAK" when describing a hurricane that can confuse some people, especially those that have never experenced a storm before. A weak Cat 3 is still a very dangerous storm. For some reason people even local government officals hear that term "weak" and don't associate the number afterward as being that important.....there is no such thing as a "Weak Hurricane" especially a weak Cat 2, 3 or even a 4 but the media and even the Weather Channel will refer to a hurricne as just that, when the winds are just above the next level.

I agree 100%. When I'm on air, I always say high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2, and never refer to a hurricane as weak. No such thing.


What about Ike not being a "major" hurricane. So technically we have not had a major hurricane hit the US this year. Tell that to the folks in Texas and Louisiana.
Quoting IKE:


I don't see anything on the horizon. The ECMWF does show a system affecting Central America in about a week, but nothing affecting the USA.

I'm sure you're aware in 75 days, it's over.


Ike,
Let us get through to Mid October first, once we hit October 10th then the activity slows down greatly then I will share that sentiment. It is good there are 75 days left though. Alot things can happen in a month though so best to keep guard up.
1107. conchygirl

Good morning everyone! Yes Fall is in the air, 66 along the coast in NW Florida this morning, feels nice! You know fall is coming when lows dip below 75 at night! Now if "No More Storms" can only hold true it will be a great Fall season!
An update to Dr. Masters wind speeds in Ohio. West Chester, OH (where my folks are) had an 84mph gust and Lebanon, OH (just north of West Chester, between Dayton and Cincinnati) reported a 78 mph gust. Wilmington, OH reported a 74 mph gust.
75 days left in tc season,but we only have 1/3 of the busiest part left,my prediction:3 more lanfalling TC's out of 6 more total tc's for the rest of the season!!!..IMO...and 1 of those becoming a major..
1120. tkeith
In most places Halloween is a kids holiday. After living in Hurricane prone area for awhile it's become my favorite holiday...
I still see Rita (05) and Jeanne (04) anniversaries on my calendar for next week and then there's Wilma (05) at the end of October. That was a freaky one so late in the season. It ain't over till it's over I guess, but don't the early cold fronts help push storms away, or do I have that backwards?
Does anyone know what's supposed to cause the huge wave action on the eastern seaboard this weekend? I only caught the end of it on TWC, but they were expecting 10-15' waves on the outerbanks and much of NC Fri-Sat.
1123. tea3781
Quoting RutRo:
I think the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche should be watched as there is an old surface trough axis in the area with divergence aloft and ul high becoming established. Not much there this morning, but the conditions are right over the next couple of days.JMO.


Our local meteorologist mentioned something about this last night. A strom developing off the washed out cold front and moving NE
Frankly, I'm not impressed with how they used the "IKE" with Ike. They claimed '20 to 25 feet' and nothing yet suggests any buoy registering any where near that level. The available readings suggest an error of somewhere near 30%.

Coupled with the fact that they erroneously claimed a field that was way to large and it was a fiasco. They need to go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong.

Even Masters acknowledge that "IKE" was 'experimental'. For some reason, the press seems to want to ignore that important fact.

Additionally, the notion of "If"...the storm had been a Cat 4 or "If" the surge had been 25 feet...if if if...

We are looking at history now and rooting for the people to have survived.

We are looking at the actions of the government and suspecting it is hiding something. How about the governments actions is part of an attempt to protect non-rescue people from getting in the way and slowing down search and rescue that is going on as we squeal about 'conspiracies'.

For example, do we allow the news helicopters to cover Galveston so thickly that they are like mosquitoes and only do something when a mid-air collision occurs. Or, do we allow the press to barge in to a home where the survivors are assailed with questions when their only desire to 'get the hell out'? The press is there to report the havoc, they are there to get what will sell...make money for their employers!!!

Y'all are enraged that those who stayed behind ignored the warnings. Maybe the restrictions are similar to the 'manditory evacuations'...to protect the idiot media from getting hurt or from getting in the way and hampering rescue and clean-up efforts.

Get a grip folks, the survivors will be happy to tell the doe-eyed press all the stories they will ever need to hear, once a simbilance of order is restored to the area.
1125. KBH
Quoting StormW:
1091. KBH 7:52 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting StormW:
1077. Thundercloud01221991 7:23 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting AirTrafficMan:
....Since the SS scale only relates to wind speed we will have new reason to categorize on total potential damage (wind/surge/rain/size as an example).


they should use a scale like the F scale for tornadoes. The F scale is related to damage it does.


I was thinking...maybe they could use the info from the Integrated Kenetic Energy scale like Dr. Masters posted a few days ago. Use that info based on the wind fields, for whatever category storm...and combine it with the Saffir Simpson Scale. For instance, Dr. Masters posted a Surge Wave Damage Potential Scale...think it was like from 1-6. Thake that for each storm, and kinda combine it. They'd have to revise the SS scale, with the explanation of the designation, in regaards as to what type of potential damage (like with IKE...Cat2...but here's the type of damage comparable to....).

I'm thinking a designation in the lines of something like this...Category1;SWPD 3 or so on. SWPD being Surge Wave Damage Potential.


Storm, I agree with a surge scale, but I would use letters A,B,C,D,E..etc. It would be more easily to track the changes in a system. E.g a Cat2E system could be equivalent to a Cat 5 in total damage.......both wind speed and degree of surge could be monitored.


I kinda agree...but I think the numeric way would cut out an extra step...you assign letters, then folks are gonna want to know...what's that mean...then it would have to be explained on the new scale with the Surge Potential numbers anyway.

perhaps when it would keep people
Quoting StormW:
1091. KBH 7:52 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting StormW:
1077. Thundercloud01221991 7:23 AM EDT on September 16, 2008
Quoting AirTrafficMan:
....Since the SS scale only relates to wind speed we will have new reason to categorize on total potential damage (wind/surge/rain/size as an example).


they should use a scale like the F scale for tornadoes. The F scale is related to damage it does.


I was thinking...maybe they could use the info from the Integrated Kenetic Energy scale like Dr. Masters posted a few days ago. Use that info based on the wind fields, for whatever category storm...and combine it with the Saffir Simpson Scale. For instance, Dr. Masters posted a Surge Wave Damage Potential Scale...think it was like from 1-6. Thake that for each storm, and kinda combine it. They'd have to revise the SS scale, with the explanation of the designation, in regaards as to what type of potential damage (like with IKE...Cat2...but here's the type of damage comparable to....).

I'm thinking a designation in the lines of something like this...Category1;SWPD 3 or so on. SWPD being Surge Wave Damage Potential.


Storm, I agree with a surge scale, but I would use letters A,B,C,D,E..etc. It would be more easily to track the changes in a system. E.g a Cat2E system could be equivalent to a Cat 5 in total damage.......both wind speed and degree of surge could be monitored.


I kinda agree...but I think the numeric way would cut out an extra step...you assign letters, then folks are gonna want to know...what's that mean...then it would have to be explained on the new scale with the Surge Potential numbers anyway.

I think it would be actually fairly easy to understand, the letters would give meaning to the degree of storm surge, while retaining the cat 1 - 5 SS numbers. The lower the letter the worst the storm surge, so Ike could be a Cat 2E or 2F
Back in Pearland (South of Houston). We were very fortunate. Our house was essentially undamaged and the power was only down for 24 hours. Even the ice cream in the freezer didn't melt enough to drip. One block away, an entire roof gone. Drove the length of Houston on 45, and the power is out intermittently across the entire city. Lines for gasoline extend a mile or more, with three hour waits. HEB is up and running most everywhere, but has lines across the parking lot, letting one person in as one person leaves. Things are far from back to normal here. We've been blessed with the cool front. Lower eighties Sunday, Monday, and hopefully today. Saturday was evidently the worst. I'll try and post some pictures this weekend. Thanks for all of your prayers, everyone.
1127. WxLogic
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone know what's supposed to cause the huge wave action on the eastern seaboard this weekend? I only caught the end of it on TWC, but they were expecting 10-15' waves on the outerbanks and much of NC Fri-Sat.


Well I didn't watch TWC but base on some forecast models... there's a low pressure developing out of North Carolina and have it moving it SW... this couple with a High pressure to the west of it would create a strong pressure gradient that will in turn "angry" the seas. That was my observation but of course time will tell and it might not work the way I see it.
Quoting largeeyes:
Does anyone know what's supposed to cause the huge wave action on the eastern seaboard this weekend? I only caught the end of it on TWC, but they were expecting 10-15' waves on the outerbanks and much of NC Fri-Sat.

It's from a 1000 mile fetch with N-NE winds from a low along a front moving offshore.
Much has been said about this already AND

I feel that Jeff Masters and the WunderBlog team need a huge pat on the back for the job performed during this storm.

I mean when people say this was 'over forecast' - how bad do they want it to be. reading about the developments has literally had me in tears.
1130. Hhunter
I gotta say I am spent from that storm..also a little upset how quickly the national media is dropping this story..
1131. Michfan
Its better to overforecast a storm than to undercast it. Hindsight is always 20/20. For predictions to get better more money needs to be poured into the global models to increase their resolution over a longer period of time.
good grief! I know its a long way out but the GFS looks ugly for the Gulf...
Interesting. Thanks. This might be a little high for my first surfing attempt.
Quoting clamshell:
Frankly, I'm not impressed with how they used the "IKE" with Ike. They claimed '20 to 25 feet' and nothing yet suggests any buoy registering any where near that level. The available readings suggest an error of somewhere near 30%.

Coupled with the fact that they erroneously claimed a field that was way to large and it was a fiasco. They need to go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong.

Even Masters acknowledge that "IKE" was 'experimental'. For some reason, the press seems to want to ignore that important fact.

Additionally, the notion of "If"...the storm had been a Cat 4 or "If" the surge had been 25 feet...if if if...

We are looking at history now and rooting for the people to have survived.

We are looking at the actions of the government and suspecting it is hiding something. How about the governments actions is part of an attempt to protect non-rescue people from getting in the way and slowing down search and rescue that is going on as we squeal about 'conspiracies'.

For example, do we allow the news helicopters to cover Galveston so thickly that they are like mosquitoes and only do something when a mid-air collision occurs. Or, do we allow the press to barge in to a home where the survivors are assailed with questions when their only desire to 'get the hell out'? The press is there to report the havoc, they are there to get what will sell...make money for their employers!!!

Y'all are enraged that those who stayed behind ignored the warnings. Maybe the restrictions are similar to the 'manditory evacuations'...to protect the idiot media from getting hurt or from getting in the way and hampering rescue and clean-up efforts.

Get a grip folks, the survivors will be happy to tell the doe-eyed press all the stories they will ever need to hear, once a simbilance of order is restored to the area.





Have you seen the pictures from crystal beach area????ask them if ike was only a cat 2 and ask them if the surge was less than expected(approx.16-18ft).....get yo head out yo booty my friend!!! you need a serious reality check as they recieved the surge that was predicted for galveston,due to ike moving directly over galveston,had ike made landfall 20 miles further south,you would't be complaining about the "IKE" model,but I'm sure you'd find something else!!!...
1135. Patrap
As folks returning may or may not know. The Gutting and Removal of Flooded Property,especially homes is a Hard ,heartbreaking job.Not only physically,but it is a emotional roller coaster to be frank.
But it will Have to be done when you return.



So here's a tip..and a Must have item.

Why is wearing a N95 mask so important?

Wearing a snug-fitting N95 mask protects your respiratory system and lungs from exposure to mold particulates, including spores and other allergenic particles.


P-95 MASK










Be smart and use the Guidelines to take care of your health. Have a Mask for when you return.
Refrigerators and wet carpet and other stuff Mildew and mold rapidly. Fast.

So be sure to consider that as a beginning. You will be ahead of the game. Loads and heaps of everything needs to be out the house. So that the sheetrock can be removed,
Take Pics and video...

Be careful and help one another.
Quoting Patrap:
As folks returning may or may not know. The Gutting and Removal of Flooded Property,especially homes is a Hard ,heartbreaking job.Not only physically,but it is a emotional roller coaster to be frank.
But it will Have to be done when you return.



So here's a tip..and a Must have item.

Why is wearing a N95 mask so important?

Wearing a snug-fitting N95 mask protects your respiratory system and lungs from exposure to mold particulates, including spores and other allergenic particles.


P-95 MASK










Be smart and use the Guidelines to take care of your health. Have a Mask for when you return.
Refrigerators and wet carpet and other stuff Mildew and mold rapidly. Fast.

So be sure to consider that as a beginning. You will be ahead of the game. Loads and heaps of everything needs to be out the house. So that the sheetrock can be removed,
Take Pics and video...

Be careful and help one another.


GREAT advice Patrap! Also, take caution with possible asbestos (sp?) in older homes.
@ 1124

You almost got me. I've been up all night and almost took the bait.

Better luck next time.
Quoting largeeyes:
Interesting. Thanks. This might be a little high for my first surfing attempt.
Wait until the wind switches offshore (if it does) and it will straighten out the wave symmetry into clean lines. After this happens the swell size will come down quickly. At high tide the waves will break with less ferocity than at low. Start out when the waves are barely breaking at about 2-4 feet. Go out with someone experienced and use a longer board as opposed to a short board. It will be easier to catch a wave. Keep at it and will will have a passion that will last a lifetime. Hope this helps, good luck.
1139. Hhunter
regarding storm surge no doubt crystal beach and that pennisula got nailed maybe 16 to 20 ft. storm slowed last minute which also impacts surge.
Quoting biloxidaisy:


GREAT advice Patrap! Also, take caution with possible asbestos (sp?) in older homes.


... And in older homes - lead based paint.

Quoting CaptnDan142:
That's very true - there was a lot of uncertainty on the track.

But... How long was Galveston in the cone? I honestly don't remember. But I think the focus on the black line could have been a bit of a culprit here too.

People tend to think "It will never happen to me" and get complacent. Human nature I guess...


My brother and his family live near Brownsville, TX, one sister lives near Corpus Christi, TX, a nephew lives in Houston. I live inland in North East Texas and we two other siblings who live inland.

My entire family was aware of Ike before it entered the GOM. Initially, Brownsville seemed the target. Next, it moved with CC being the direct target. It was not until the last few days of the family-wide watch that the emphasis shifted to Houston and Galveston.

The City of CC and surrounding areas closed businesses and schools and ordered the evacuation of special-needs residents on Wednesday of last week. Although the tension did ease up in Brownsville, people in that area were alert and ready to move with emergency preparations (while they still recovered from Dolly)..

Here in North East Texas, I had at least 2 days notice that the storm was going to affect us. I am a farmer. I had time to decide how to shelter my livestock and get the farm ready for the blow.

East Texas Emergency planning was fully underway by Thursday. Shelters were being opened and special-needs folks were evacuated from places like Beaumont on Thursday.

The problem rose up with my nephew in Houston. With Hurricane Rita, he spent 26-hours grid-locked in traffic trying to get out. With this storm, he felt safer riding it out in a friend's house that was in one of the higher points (If there is such a thing) in Houston. In truth, those in Houston really did not have much choice but to "Hunker down and take it." I am very pleased that those from Galveston were allowed to pass through Houston to evacuate. In a way, Houston did the honorable thing. Those who were out of the way of the storm surge, stayed and let those who needed to leave (Due to being directly on the coast) leave. Houston knew what they were (actually were not) going to do and had a plan. By necessity, it was a harsh one. Still, I am proud of them.

All along the coast of Texas, Cities and small communities braced and prepared for Ike. Ike probably caused the evacuation of more coastal area than any other hurricane ever.

However, there has always been an element which does not fear the incredible power of hurricanes as most of us do who have lived with them for generations. Many people are now living on the Coast who do not have a cultural background that helps them understand the danger. Others place other considerations (such as revenue) over the potential harm. And, others still just don't get it--until it is too late.

Humans are humans, we cannot change that. Some of us are going to watch every storm that has the potential to do harm and others will not try to leave until it is too late.

The Galveston situation is in many ways, a sad repeat of what happened in 1900. Still, I feel deeply for that entire community.
1142. myway
Quoting clamshell:
Frankly, I'm not impressed with how they used the "IKE" with Ike. They claimed '20 to 25 feet' and nothing yet suggests any buoy registering any where near that level. The available readings suggest an error of somewhere near 30%.

Coupled with the fact that they erroneously claimed a field that was way to large and it was a fiasco. They need to go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong.

Even Masters acknowledge that "IKE" was 'experimental'. For some reason, the press seems to want to ignore that important fact.

Additionally, the notion of "If"...the storm had been a Cat 4 or "If" the surge had been 25 feet...if if if...

We are looking at history now and rooting for the people to have survived.

We are looking at the actions of the government and suspecting it is hiding something. How about the governments actions is part of an attempt to protect non-rescue people from getting in the way and slowing down search and rescue that is going on as we squeal about 'conspiracies'.

For example, do we allow the news helicopters to cover Galveston so thickly that they are like mosquitoes and only do something when a mid-air collision occurs. Or, do we allow the press to barge in to a home where the survivors are assailed with questions when their only desire to 'get the hell out'? The press is there to report the havoc, they are there to get what will sell...make money for their employers!!!

Y'all are enraged that those who stayed behind ignored the warnings. Maybe the restrictions are similar to the 'manditory evacuations'...to protect the idiot media from getting hurt or from getting in the way and hampering rescue and clean-up efforts.

Get a grip folks, the survivors will be happy to tell the doe-eyed press all the stories they will ever need to hear, once a simbilance of order is restored to the area.


Well written.
Quoting Hhunter:
I gotta say I am spent from that storm..also a little upset how quickly the national media is dropping this story..


That's because the media isn't blaming FEMA and GW for everything that went wrong, but give them time, they will go back to that as soon as someone realizes somnething is not working properly....or the casualty number increase....sadly to say....
Quoting Michfan:
Its better to overforecast a storm than to undercast it. Hindsight is always 20/20. For predictions to get better more money needs to be poured into the global models to increase their resolution over a longer period of time.


Good Observation !
Blog Updated
CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 new systems.
Patrap after Katrina the clean up was harder on us emotionaly than removing the sheetrock you will also need the mask when your spraying chemicals to stop the mold. learned this lession the hard way. after 5 minutes of spraying had to crawl out the door to fresh air.
Quoting CaptnDan142:
Not everyone (obviously) takes a pro-active approach to hurricane season. The average person tends to listen to what the TV weatherman and local authorities tell them.


So true, even among so many of the better-educated people I know (medical profession, business owners, etc) Sure they can surf the web, but don't have the drive to seek out more technical information. If it doesn't jump out on a banner, they are unaware. And when you factor in the hectic pace of life - work, get the kids to school & soccer practice etc, there may only be a few opportunities during the day to check in on the local news. If you don't catch the urgency from the TV or radio, or from talk around the water cooler, even a 72 hour warning period can sneak up on someone.

And there are still many people whose *only* resource is the local authorities or media,due to finances or lack of education.

There are too many other reasons people have for not leaving to get into here, but basically I have learned that people need the "visual" before they comprehend. It's not enough to tell people about the surge, it's not even enough to show them pictures of what happened elsewhere, because human nature thrives in a constant state of denial. Warnings have to be very explicit and pertinent to "them."

Some of the cities here in FL have put big signs up in various well-travelled locations - "here is the high water mark for a 20 foot storm surge" kind of thing. When you are sitting at the traffic light looking up at it,
something kind of clicks in your brain.

When local authorities, who get paid to know better, continue to allow people to build in such vulnerable areas, in my mind at least it makes them somewhat responsible in conveying the urgency of the message to the average person.

Just IMHO, YMMV.
Patrap,

Did I read on here that you are/were a Marine fly-boy?
Quoting clamshell:
Frankly, I'm not impressed with how they used the "IKE" with Ike. They claimed '20 to 25 feet' and nothing yet suggests any buoy registering any where near that level. The available readings suggest an error of somewhere near 30%.

Coupled with the fact that they erroneously claimed a field that was way to large and it was a fiasco. They need to go back to the drawing board and find out what went wrong.

Even Masters acknowledge that "IKE" was 'experimental'. For some reason, the press seems to want to ignore that important fact.

Additionally, the notion of "If"...the storm had been a Cat 4 or "If" the surge had been 25 feet...if if if...


What stone has your head been under? Had Ike had hit 30 miles west of Galveston instead of dead center, the storm surges in the North part of Galveston Bay (SE Houston) would have rivaled those of Katrina in Bay St. Louis, MS. 25 -30 feet. Galveston would be much worse than it is. Don't depend on buoy readings to report the surge. They have to be in the correct locations and be functioning and reporting properly at the time of maximum surge and wind values. Historically, most or all fail during maximum onset of these storms.
That field that was "too large" flooded 20,000 homes in LA, some of them over 300 miles from Galveston. Significant storm surge and damage in Dauphin Island, and Ft. Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, AL.
One more down and out. 92 has been removed from WU site. Hoping the train really doesn't start up again.
Quoting MahFL:
One thing that surprised me in the area's where there is total devistation is it's not immediatly obvious there was an extra row or two houses there before, and even the pylons and slabs are gone from the first row or two. For some its the end of there way of life.


One of the lessons to be learned from this tragedy is that it is absolutely wrong to allow construction on barrier islands. Nature has a job for them to do and it is not hold up houses. Had the island been left as intended this story would be different and the degree of damage inland would have been reduced. Yes it is dangerous to live anywhere on a planet such as Earth but there are different degrees of danger and the overdevelopment of our shorelines causes consequences not limited to the ones doing the building. In many ways the "before" picture is the tragic one. The "after" is the inevitable result.

However I have nothing but sympathy for suffering of those people caught up in this tragedy.
1152. Patrap
I was in the USMC air-wing from 80-86
I did 20 in the AF and now have two sons in the Marines.

Semper Fi bro, and thanks for your service.
Blog Updated
CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 new systems.

1 small one starting off South Florida
1 starting in the Bay of Campeche (could be bad)
1 Larger one off the East Coast (Carols)
Quoting flaboyinga:


Good Observation !

That station looks vaguely familiar... LOL!
1141. Celia1970 1:08 PM GMT on September 16, 2008

Awesome commentary from someone who was near ground zero. Must read again.
1157. Patrap
Thank you and them from us here .

ooh rah..
Quoting Patrap:
I was in the USMC air-wing from 80-86
There Ya Go! I only did 4 in the USMA. Vietnam.
1159. Michfan
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


One of the lessons to be learned from this tragedy is that it is absolutely wrong to allow construction on barrier islands. Nature has a job for them to do and it is not hold up houses. Had the island been left as intended this story would be different and the degree of damage inland would have been reduced. Yes it is dangerous to live anywhere on a planet such as Earth but there are different degrees of danger and the overdevelopment of our shorelines causes consequences not limited to the ones doing the building. In many ways the "before" picture is the tragic one. The "after" is the inevitable result.

However I have nothing but sympathy for suffering of those people caught up in this tragedy.


The only way this will ever be fixed is when insurance companies outright refuse to insure anyone who builds in such an area.
1161. Patrap
Its a jarhead reunion wu-moment.

Chesty Puller would be Proud right now.
Nope my bad looks like the station from sand valley
Quoting Halon056:

That station looks vaguely familiar... LOL!


Hortense, Ga VFD, 850 ft. W of US 301 on Ga Rt. 32. I thought it was gonna kill me to get it built, but I did and it didn't.lol
Quoting Patrap:
Its a jarhead reunion wu-moment.

Chesty Puller would be Proud right now.


Jarhead = Grunt= Pongo

Pongo = Hairy little creature that digs hole in ground for no apparent reason :)
Quoting Patrap:
I was in the USMC air-wing from 80-86


Thank you again for your military service and your community service to our country. Semper Fi!
Quoting clwstmchasr:
1105. Bones429 12:07 PM GMT on September 16, 2008

What about Ike not being a "major" hurricane. So technically we have not had a major hurricane hit the US this year. Tell that to the folks in Texas and Louisiana.


Yeah - try to tell folks around here Ike wasn't a major and you'd probably get knocked out.

Good Morning All. Nice to wake up to power. Trying to keep my emotions in check today.
strong 850mb vorticity near 9n 23w in association with tropical wave
1168. SEFL
Quoting NoMeteorsInOlogy:
Beachfoxx

When considered as a percentage of income, the number of people paying the most taxes becomes very different. For example, people earning 56k a year pay almost ten times the income proportion that wealthy wage earners pay. And there is a social security cap that anyone has to pay, being no payments to any income amounts over 90,000.00. Any one of us would love to have that cap around 20k...almost all wage earners in the US actually, or some 90% of the population.

The proportion of taxes to income paid by the wealthy 1% is minuscule compared to what people earning 60k make--by a very real and very wide margin.

Yeah, 500 billionaires pay a larger total dollar amount than the 50,000 wage earners.
And the percent of income they pay as tax is less than 5% of what the proportion of tax debt is is that others pay. Including you, if your family takes in less than 200k a year.

Rush Limbaugh has really impressed people as an economist, military strategist and political expert. But he's not qualified to speak at the kindergarten level about any of those three topics.

he's an entertainer---not a reporter or expert of any kind. He just spouts what the far right tells him to--mostly misleading statistics. Rush is worse than a tree hugger. he's a prescription drug addict pretending to have the moral imperative, boys and girls....and he doesn't in any way, shape or form.



What you say here makes no sense. I'll chalk that up to late night babble. But even if you are going to babble why not try to support your babble with some facts.
1169. jmemon
The remenants of IKE paid even Rochester, NY a visit about 1 AM Monday with 35 mph winds and 50 + mph gusts. Not much rain. The event lasted about 2 hours and was associated with a cold front but very different from a front, the winds swirlled much more. Lots of tree limbs down. A gentler pruning from nature than many received.

Wind speed, storm surge, rainfall amount, tornados, anything with a damage capacity would be good to consider when assessing the destructive potential of a tropical storm. But then it gets down to the accuracy of when and where. And how do you make a simple, informative, timely presentation to the public. Is the SS scale as good as we can do for now? Somehow I think we can do better...

Can the public relate to the term integrated kinetic energy? It is certianly more infomative than two guys names.

And what about the influence political/economic interests on weather data... It will be a sad day when it is raining outside your window and the weatherman says its sunny because its more profitable.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


One of the lessons to be learned from this tragedy is that it is absolutely wrong to allow construction on barrier islands. Nature has a job for them to do and it is not hold up houses. Had the island been left as intended this story would be different and the degree of damage inland would have been reduced. Yes it is dangerous to live anywhere on a planet such as Earth but there are different degrees of danger and the overdevelopment of our shorelines causes consequences not limited to the ones doing the building. In many ways the "before" picture is the tragic one. The "after" is the inevitable result.

However I have nothing but sympathy for suffering of those people caught up in this tragedy.

Barrier islands are an extremely important part of our defense against inland storm surge. While the wonderful beauty of undisturbed, undeveloped barrier islands is a sight to behold, intelligent constuction on them will help to preserve them. An uninhabited barrier island often gets washed away or cut through in a storm. Because they are uninhabited, and produce no direct tax revenue, our governments do not rebuild them. The natural elements that built them have changed and nature will not reconstruct them on its own. Witness what used to be the Chandeleur island chain off of LA-MS coast. Virtually the only barrier island LA has left is the only inhabited one - Grand Isle. It looks real ugly right now, but development helped hold these seashores together and it is what will preserve them for future generations. Smart construction, and smart evacuation are the proper responses.
Quoting flaboyinga:


Hortense, Ga VFD, 850 ft. W of US 301 on Ga Rt. 32. I thought it was gonna kill me to get it built, but I did and it didn't.lol


Trust me been there done that! Still building our station,(finishing the inside) serve over 10000 residents covering 94 square miles in Putnam county in Northeast Florida...
Quoting flaboyinga:


Thank you again for your military service and your community service to our country. Semper Fi!


I want to repeat this to all veterans. They performed the deed or offered to place themselves between our country and those who were against it. Curse the politics if you must, but honor the veterans. (USN 1961-1965)
1173. TheMom
Quoting Enola:

One I liked the best had instructions for making your own mini campstove out of soda cans - runs on denatured or +90% rubbing alcohol.

Point is, CaptnDan is right. Figure some way to be prepared and to move fast.
When I was in the Army we would do that with our helmuts you take out the helmut liner pour in the alcohol and have a little fire to "cook" your MRE (back before MRE's had heating things and even tabasco) Thanks for making me feel old again.

If you can't get MREs the Dinty Moore shelf meals are easy to find sort of like frozen meals without the need for freezer.
1174. NEwxguy
GM,to all,without even looking at satellite loops,I can tell its quiet in the tropics,by the off topic subjects this morning in the blog.
Argh! Stop that! No more tropical blobs!
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog Updated
CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of 3 new systems.

1 small one starting off South Florida
1 starting in the Bay of Campeche (could be bad)
1 Larger one off the East Coast (Carols)
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Yeah - try to tell folks around here Ike wasn't a major and you'd probably get knocked out.

Good Morning All. Nice to wake up to power. Trying to keep my emotions in check today.


That wasn't me that said Ike wasn't a major storm... Waht I said was that the media needs to sotp refering to hurricanes as "weak" just because the winds are a little above the next level.. the same should be said for referring to them as major also before they hit someplace....ask Texas, or LA or Haiti or even Cuba if Ike was a "major" storm ....DUH
anyone knows the where abouts of Weather 456? his imput was missed this hurricane season
Quoting Michfan:


The only way this will ever be fixed is when insurance companies outright refuse to insure anyone who builds in such an area.


We create zoning restrictions for less pressing reasons. Ever try to build a $50,000 over-engineered house in a McMansion development? Had a personal friend who did. It would have the "House With the Blue Roof".

I don't think we should go about evicting folks but a national buy out program based on SLOSH data would be cost effective in the long run, say fair market value + x%. Bet we'd get a bunch of takers in Galviston area right now.
1179. SEFL
Quoting WetWedder:
And Warren Buffett agrees with me by the way, not with you SEFL.


I am still trying to figure out your point. I know I am not as smart as you but you need to learn how to keep from tripping over your tongue while making your point, whatever it may be.
1176. Bones429

I am aware you weren't saying/thinking that. I know the media says (or so I am hearing now. Got power last night) Ike wasn't a major.

We recorded 101 sustained here at my house and 115 gusts. (Two neighbors have weather stations). I am about 20 miles North of Galveston. About 10 miles west Of the Bay.
1183. Vero1
the live streams from the area on http://projectdisaster.com/ike.htm the reported from abc13 was saying that the survivors from Crystal Beach knew that Ike was a strong CAT2 storm but did not know the surge was going to be as strong as it was, and want the hurricane forcasting to include the CAT of the wind and the CAT of the surge. The example was what we here on the blog have been saying "CAT 2 Hurricane with CAT 4 surge". So, even the survivors are saying the same thing we are without the benifit of this blog.
Deleted
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


We create zoning restrictions for less pressing reasons. Ever try to build a $50,000 over-engineered house in a McMansion development? Had a personal friend who did. It would have the "House With the Blue Roof".

I don't think we should go about evicting folks but a national buy out program based on SLOSH data would be cost effective in the long run, say fair market value + x%. Bet we'd get a bunch of takers in Galviston area right now.


Simple easy fix to the problem

"Insurance Bureau of Canada reminds B.C. residents to protect their belongings: Overland flooding not covered by insurance"
Sorry....miss understood ya....hope ya'll are doing ok.....
1178. ShenValleyFlyFish
"I don't think we should go about evicting folks but a national buy out program based on SLOSH data would be cost effective in the long run, say fair market value + x%. Bet we'd get a bunch of takers in Galviston area right now."

Don't forget to buy out all of the people in this country who live in river valleys, and earthquake fault zone, wild fire areas, and blizzard areas. There are more FEMA disasters declared each year for snowfall than anything else.
1188. SEFL
Quoting flaboyinga:


I got banned for 24 hrs for responding to someone bashing our country. You might get it for responding to this bashing on an individual. Watch your back.


Sorry this got in here. It was a very late night "debate" and I have no idea why I even responded this AM, other than I was trying to catch up with the blog. I think I'll go for a motorcycle ride!!!
A repeat of information given yesterday:
As stated by many, the clean-up and recovery can be almost as dangerous as the storm. The mask is imperative as not only toxic chemicals and asbestos will invade your lungs and body, but the mold and fungi will attach itself and continue to grow. There are essential oils that can kill it when taken internally, but most people don't know about them and rely on doctors.
The water that people are wading in and allowing their children to "play" in contains parasites and fungi on top of the obvious chemicals and toxins. The smallest cut or hang nail allows entry.
Gas generators have killed through carbon monoxide poisoning and fires. We use a solar generator that doesn't even need that much sun. You can only plug in a few things at a time, but a fridge for 4 hours and a stove for hot water will get you through.
We have a whole house purification system that will continue to pump 40 gallons of pure water even when the pumping stations are turned off. Then we plug in the ait to water generator to make water from the humidity.
Of course, if we had to evacuate we use a portable solar water generator.
All of these are on the web site.
Because we live in Alabama(now)we've been through many hurricanes and have worked 13 along with working ground zero. The most prolonged impact of any of these devastating storms is not the material loss, but the constant reminders of water and wind stealing your memories and terrifying your soul. People and animals need a lot of compassion and love, especially the children.
Thank God for some peace in the tropics.
1190. plylox
Quoting Celia1970:



In truth, those in Houston really did not have much choice but to "Hunker down and take it." I am very pleased that those from Galveston were allowed to pass through Houston to evacuate. In a way, Houston did the honorable thing. Those who were out of the way of the storm surge, stayed and let those who needed to leave (Due to being directly on the coast) leave. Houston knew what they were (actually were not) going to do and had a plan.......And its not Honorable to commit suicide and that's what would have happened if the landfall had been slightly west. BTW, due to the AWESOME!!! information on THIS blog, my family and I left Wednesday afternoon, with NO traffic whatsoever! We all need to use every resource available to make decisions in our own lives and not rely on someone else to make decisions for us. Just like being prepared with 7 days(or more) of water and food and batteries and flashlights and not rely on FEMA to feed and clothe us.......
Quoting SEFL:


Sorry this got in here. It was a very late night "debate" and I have no idea why I even responded this AM, other than I was trying to catch up with the blog. I think I'll go for a motorcycle ride!!!


Hey, no apology needed! I was just warning you of what happened to me. I envy your gas mileage on the bike.lol
As Mark Twain said "Write about what you know"
I have 32 years of experience in my field.
I'm a builder, I've depended on wunderground site for years to assist me in decisions when there's a witch offshore swimming anywhere near my job. For normal times local weather.com infra red loops suffice.
I've had an, off to the side, comical wu mail exchange with a long time poster about how an ol' man with no formal weather forcasting background would try to predict hurricane landfalls before computers, let alone computer models. But, that is where the exchange was, off to the side in wu mail.
I visit this site to gleen from authentic forcasters, info to help me do my job. If I should post an occasional comment, you can rest assured it wil have to do with the construction industry or an actual personal experience. I'm only trying to "pay it forward" to the ones who have helped me.
When I get to Houston my job will be simple, put it back like it was or better. What won't be simple, is where do my subcontractors sleep, eat or fill up their gas tanks. And you can rest assured, I won't turn my back on the Gulf without checking here first.
So please, life is complicated enough without having to wade through a bunch of trash to find my tools. I want to know what steers a hurricane, not listen to a bunch of unlearned egotistical rants.
Many thanks to the pros for your wisdom and expetise.