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Ike closes in on Galveston

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:12 PM GMT on September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike is hours away from landfall on the upper Texas coast, and is already generating huge storm surges in Texas and Lousiana. Although still of Category 2 strength, Ike remains larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike's Integrated Kinetic Energy has fallen from 149 Terajoules this morning to 124 at 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon. However, this is still larger than the total energy Katrina had at landfall, and Ike's storm surge potential rates a 5.1 on a scale of 1 to 6.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Ike from the International Space Station. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
Ike is attempting to create a new eyewall, and visible satellite loops and Galveston radar suggest the storm is becoming more organized. However, Ike has only a few more hours over water, and there is not time for the hurricane to intensify more than 5-10 mph before landfall. Ike will not inflict extreme wind damage like Katrina's or Rita's. The big story with Ike will be the storm surge.


Figure 2.Current tide levels in Galveston. The green line shows the current storm surge, which was 7.5 feet at 4 pm CDT. The water level stopped rising at 2 pm because the tide began going out. When high tide comes back in at 2 am, there will be a sharp rise in the water level. There is a 2 foot difference between high tide and low tide. Image credit: NOAA TIdes and Currents.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides are running 6-8 feet above normal along the central Louisiana coast this afternoon. The nola.com web site is reporting that a 9 foot storm surge affected the Industial Canal in New Orleans. Extensive flooding of low lying towns outside the New Orleans levee system is occurring. Surge overtopped a St. Mary Parish levee near the town of Gordy, and a six-foot-wide breach was reported in a non-federal parish levee near the towns of Caernarvon, Scarsdale, White Ditch and Braithwaite.

The fact that Ike's storm surge has reached such high levels 200-300 miles north of the storm is a very bad omen for the upper Texas and western Louisiana coasts. The latest forecast surge values from NOAA:

Shoreline of Galveston Bay... 15 to 22 feet
Bolivar Peninsula... 17 to 20 feet
Galveston Island... ... 14 to 17 feet
Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 8 to 14 feet

I've given the mistaken impression that the Galveston sea wall will save the city from inundation. That is not the case. The wall merely protects the city from a frontal assault by the storm surge and the 20 foot waves likely to be on top of the surge. Ike will flood the city of Galveston. However, the predicted level of surge will be just beneath the sea wall. If the surge exceeds the 17 foot forecast, it will overtop the sea wall and act like a battering ram against the buildings in Galveston. It is also possible that the sea wall will be destroyed along some sections, allowing the ocean direct access to Galveston.

The situation is also grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

Ike's winds in Houston and inland
Winds in the Houston metro area will increase to tropical storm force--39 mph--early this evening, and remain that strong for about 20 hours. Houston will be on the left (weak) side of Ike, and will miss the storm's strongest winds. Nevertheless, winds of Category 1 hurricane force (75-85 mph) will affect the city for about a 4-hour period in the early morning hours of Saturday. People in well-built homes will suffer only minor damage, but mobile homes and homes not build to code will suffer significant damage. The extremely long duration of the hurricane force winds will cause much greater damage than is typical for a hurricane of this strength.

Winds and damage in Houston will be less than was experienced during Hurricane Alicia of 1983. Ike's damage will cover a much wider area and spread farther inland, due to the large size of the storm. During Alicia, Houston Hobby Airport on the south side of the city recorded top winds of 89 mph, gusting to 99 mph. The strongest winds recorded at Houston International Airport, on the north side of the city, were 51 mph, gusting to 78 mph. Winds from Ike will probably reach maximum sustained speeds of 75-80 mph at Houston Hobby, and 65-70 mph at Houston International Airport.

A good guess on what kind of winds inland areas will experience can be had by using the Inland Wind Model developed by NOAA scientists Mark DeMaria and John Kaplan. This simple model shows the expected winds inland from the coast for the five Category hurricanes moving at different speeds. Plotted below (Figure 3) is the inland wind model plot that best fits the type of winds I expect will penetrate inland from Ike. I think Ike will be a strong Category 2 hurricane moving at about 15 mph at landfall, but the hurricane's strongest winds will penetrate farther inland than is typical due to the huge size of the storm. Thus, I picked a slightly stronger storm with a higher forward speed to base my inland wind estimate on. I expect hurricane force winds of 74 mph will penetrate about 110 miles inland, near the cities of Huntsville and Livingston to the north of Galveston, and not quite reaching Lufkin. We can expect Ike to cause the largest and longest-lived power outage in Texas history, with power knocked out along a 200-mile wide swath in eastern Texas and extreme western Louisiana extending 300 miles inland to I-20. Dallas will be at the fringe of the region of widespread power outages, and should not suffer major power failures.


Figure 3. Inland penetration of tropical storm and hurricane force winds from a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds moving perpendicular to the Gulf Coast at a forward speed of 17 mph. Image credit: NOAA.

For more information
I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather
Port Arthur, TX weather
Houston, TX weather
Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast
Long-range radar out of Galveston, TX
wundermap of weather stations near Ike
Buoy 42035 22 nm SE of Galveston
I-45 traffic cams (bottom 6 on scroll-down menu are Galveston).

Tropical disturbance approaching the central Bahamas
An area of disturbed weather (91L) is located about 400 miles east of the central Bahamas, and is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. Satellite loops show that 91L's heavy thunderstorms have continued to increase in areal coverage this afternoon. However, these thunderstorms are not well organized, and there is no evidence of a surface circulation yet on visible satellite imagery.

The disturbance is under about 10 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. There is an upper-level low pressure just to the west of 91L that is creating shear and pumping dry air into the system, similar to the situation Hanna had to deal with in its formative stages. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Monday, which may allow some gradual development. None of the models are developing 91L, but the central Bahamas can expect heavy rain and strong gusty winds Saturday. These conditions may spread to the western Bahamas by Sunday and the east coast of Florida by Monday. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to fly into 91L on Sunday, if necessary.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Sky
Hurricane Sky
Sunset Friday evening before arrival of Ike. The sky was incredible. Did my best to capture it. Images processed in Photomatix to make single HDR image

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hes he also called for ike to be a weak TS after it left Cuba and than made a complete 180 and called for a Cat 5...
I would expect that the area just east of Galveston is where the devestation is. The more populated areas really dodged a bullet IMO.
Quoting profun26:
I would expect that the area just east of Galveston is where the devestation is. The more populated areas really dodged a bullet IMO.

Yeah, Crystal Beach to Rollover Bay got it the worse, IMVHO.
i was seeing some footage of NASA Rd 1 that showed at the least moderate wind damage, trees and signs down, siding off buildings, few with roofs peeled off.
dickenson, TX got hammered.
a blog hole has occured.
Someone asked for news about Houma. LiveNewsCameras has HTV10 from there.

Link
anybody here currently physicalling in Houston?
3510. keyjo50
Quoting Xmarksthespot:
Someone asked for news about Houma. LiveNewsCameras has HTV10 from there.

Link


Thank you! That was me...my idiot brother is there.
3511. keyjo50
Quoting Vortex95:
Ike is speeding up and could likely hit 25mph in foward speed the front is already influencing the system.


We're in Ruston (N. LA) and starting to get nasty wind...no rain today but had some good squalls yesterday.

We're expecting lots of trees down (our ground is saturated from Gustav), wind, and rain. Historically, my town doesn't get tornados, but surrounding areas do.

Geographically, we're right smack dab in the middle of the North Central LA region (I-20 corridor).
80+ people are stranded in the 2nd floor of their homes on Galveston Island as the 1st floors are flooded.
Anyone know how all the oil refineries down there did?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


He's 5 actually, he can't forcast for crap, he called Ike Extratropical yesterday when it was 105 MPH. He fails to realize that Gustav caused 20 Billion dollars in damage, He also fails to realize that the storm surge in Galveston was 25 feet at peak.


Neither of those statements are true!

Hurricane Gustav packed less of an economic punch than expected, leading analysts to estimate insured damage at between $2 billion and $10 billion.

Wilson Shaffer, chief of the National Weather Service's evaluation division, said the storm surge was smaller than predicted, but the region wasn't out of the clear as the storm continued on its path. The highest surge Saturday morning was about 13.5 feet at Sabine Pass in Texas, according to tidal gauges. The surge at Galveston was 11 feet, about half of what was predicted.

Link

Link
3516. LLHi
speaking of disappointments....
i always held harvard university in high esteem
whew...

Quoting WetBankGuy:


Dang Hadron Collider. You had to know something bad would come of it.


LMAO
3514
Anyone know how all the oil refineries down there did?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That's the $10 billion dollar question. Probably won't have answers until late today or tomorrow.
No reports yet of deaths or injuries. 6ft of water in downtown area, Galveston. Responders still haven't been able to reach anybody.
many windows in Houston downtown are busted out.
Brennan's, 40 yr old restaraunt, burned in downtown houston, 3 injuries, including 4 yr old.
Gets some gusty winds in S Fla likely from a high though wonderful beach day as well.

Hope the NW gulf coast doesn't suffer too much damage. Although i'm almost certain it will be over 10 billion Dollars worth.
3522. SCAnne
Do i need to do anything besides hitting ignore? Every time I do it takes me to a different page and the person is not ignored.
3523. RyanCRG
Quoting futuremet:
wow lol it seems that HarvardMBA just commented my video on youtube.

When I checked his channel....it says he is 37 years old.

pretty ignorant for a 37 year old don't you think?

Link to your video?
Quoting IMA:
3479. AirTrafficManI too have to laugh because isn't your post, especially by being posted a second time, a complaint in itself? Literally lol here, dog barking to verify it ;)


HA..I see where it could be construed as that. I guess yet it was meant only to state facts. It is interesting how this blog changes face after landfall. From differing opinions about track/strength to differing opinions about shoulda/woulda/coulda.

Continental is hoping to resume flights into KIAH tomorrow but Southwest probably won't begin until Monday, after they asses the damage at KHOU. SAR ops have yet to begin due to flight conditions.
On the page it takes you, you will see the persons name and then click the link...."update list".
Some people here would compain even if ya hung 'em with a new rope.

Others just arn't happy unless they're miserable.


Go figure....
3527. KRL
Officials now say 140,000 people ignored orders to evacuate in the mandatory evacuation zone.

1,450 calls have come in to 911 already from people trapped in their homes surrounded by water.

So sick of seeing taxpayers have to foot the bill for these complete idiots that don't listen to evac orders and then put law enforcement, fire rescue, and the national guardsment at risk having to go and rescue them.

There should be heavy fines and penalties imposed on the people that don't listen to evacuations.
Quoting RyanCRG:

Link to your video?


here it is


look at the first comment....sounds just like him
BTW, I left Houston yesterday...looks like a smart choice.
I had the same issue go to my wunderblog and click ignore list. It will look like your ignoring ppl in your blog but it is infact ingnoring people throught the blog system here.
Futuremet, did you read the comments he got from other users? Seems like he's well known there too... LOL.
These reports who were out getting blown around last night are crazy! and the news companies are stupid for having their employees out in it.
Officials now say 140,000 people ignored order to evacuate in the mandatory evacuation zone.

1,450 calls have come in to 911 already from people trapped in their homes surrounded by water.

So sick of seeing taxpayers have to foot the bill for these complete idiots that don't listen to evac orders and then put law enforcement, fire rescue, and the national guardsment at risk having to go and rescue them.

There should be heavy fines and penalties imposed on the people that don't listen to evacuations.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Totally agree. The rescuers risk their lives for these idiots. Most of those heros would just say they're doing their job, but I'm sure the morons that didn't evac haven't given any thought about the families of the rescuers.
Whoever that beemer guy is that photo is beautiful.
Quoting fire831rescue:
Futuremet, did you read the comments he got from other users? Seems like he's well known there too... LOL.


yes, I saw his profile comments lol.

apparently he is trolling everywhere.
Looks good so far. But let's remember how optimistic we were with other storms early in the morning just to be horrified later. It's too early to be patting ourselves on the back.
Do people in Haiti share the same benevolant god? I guess not - its just those lucky 'ol Texans...

Quoting CaneEater:
Thank you GOD, and by the Grace of GOD it was not any worse, and it was by the Grace of GOD you better believe it.
3538. IMA
3524. AirTrafficManI just had ta tease ya, Air. It really did make me giggle.
@ atmoaggie: If you need help finding more hydrology/hydraulic info on the river wundermail me. I'll be offline a couple of hours. Hope you saw the post about the frequency flows at Beaumont.
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Dang Hadron Collider. You had to know something bad would come of it.


LOL
The BLOGMONSTER is eating posts again....


sigh...
3542. KRL
Quoting bollidear:
Do people in Haiti share the same benevolant god? I guess not - its just those lucky 'ol Texans...



Are you kidding? The US NAVY was right there for the people of Haiti with a full ship load of relief supplies near their worst hit areas. The United Nations is there also.

We take care of lots of unfortunate situations and disasters around the world every day.

No one can say the US isn't generous with helping others. I bet if you looked at the numbers, there is no other country on the planet that even comes close to the amount of funds, donations, and hands on relief help we give to the rest of the world.

Even during financial crisises like now, we still always find ways to help and give. That's a core principle this country was founded on and lives by to this day.
3543. Patrap
GOES_EAST Visible Rapid Scan Loop Link
Quoting bollidear:
Do people in Haiti share the same benevolant god? I guess not - its just those lucky 'ol Texans...

i come as many but only one
3545. Patrap
Winds down to 80 still a dangerous system none the less.
Quoting futuremet:
wow lol it seems that HarvardMBA just commented my video on youtube.

When I checked his channel....it says he is 37 years old.

pretty ignorant for a 37 year old don't you think?

a scary thought indeed! I felt much better about his childish attitude when I thought he WAS a child.
Quoting KRL:


Are you kidding? The US NAVY was right there for the people of Haiti with a full ship load of relief supplies near their worst hit areas. The United Nations is there also.

We take care of lots of unfortunate situations and disasters around the world every day.

No one can say the US isn't generous with helping others. I bet if you looked at the numbers, there is no other country on the planet that even comes close to the amount of funds, donations, and hands on relief help we give to the rest of the world.

Even during financial crisises like now, we still always find ways to help and give. That's a core principle this country was founded on and lives by to this day.
canada sent disater response team for accessment along with 5 million in food and medical supplies to hati
That guy in the Bear suit is funny. Just the most stupid thing you could imagine.

Link
3537- "Do people in Haiti share the same benevolant god? I guess not - its just those lucky 'ol Texans..."

Of course I am sorry for the people of Haiti that had to go through it and the ones that lost family members and their friends, but by the Grace of GOD it was not any worse there either, as you will learn in life my frien it can allways be WORSE.
3551. IvansEx
Sorry, but I just woke (back) up after trying to stay up watching the coverage.
Was wondering who got the worst of the storm surge, and about how much surge there was??

(back to trying to read blog entries...)
Quoting unknownuser:


Neither of those statements are true!

Hurricane Gustav packed less of an economic punch than expected, leading analysts to estimate insured damage at between $2 billion and $10 billion.

Wilson Shaffer, chief of the National Weather Service's evaluation division, said the storm surge was smaller than predicted, but the region wasn't out of the clear as the storm continued on its path. The highest surge Saturday morning was about 13.5 feet at Sabine Pass in Texas, according to tidal gauges. The surge at Galveston was 11 feet, about half of what was predicted.

Link

Link


Huh? That was confirmed by the NHC and FEMA, Gustav caused 20 Billion Dollars in damages and will be retired.
3553. RyanCRG
Quoting whipster:
That guy in the Bear suit is funny. Just the most stupid thing you could imagine.

Link

I just happen to know where that idea came from, it's more stupid than you think.... you can thank the kids at 4chan for that..
starting to get reports of apts being total loss in Port Arthur.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
canada sent disater response team for accessment along with 5 million in food and medical supplies to hati


We were also the first navy to send ships/supplies/Divers to Katrina
Blog Update, refreshed Graphics.

Updated Track on 91L

News leads

Hurricane Ike slams Texas coast with major floods

Hurricane Ike wreaks havoc on Texas coast
Quoting HarvardMBA:
IKE DID NOT LIVE UP TO THE HYPE PEOPLE. GALVESTON SURVIVED EASILY.

A MESS YES. A CATASTROPHE???? NO WAY.



We are all glad IKE didn't do the worst it could have.

Anyone with a Harvard MBA should have more tact than to turn themselves into such a miserable PEST on this board. Don't you have anything at all better to do? get a life already!
3558. kdav
gustav did do 20 billion but it was acounted for in cuba as well.
IvansEx, Hydrologist Benton McGee from the U.S. Geological Survey says the highest storm surge will probably remain 13.5 feet at Sabine Pass in Texas.
If 91l comes to Florida undeveloped or maybe even a TD it could bring minor Flooding to localised areas at worst.
3561. IvansEx
Quoting setfree7:
IvansEx, Hydrologist Benton McGee from the U.S. Geological Survey says the highest storm surge will probably remain 13.5 feet at Sabine Pass in Texas.
Thanks!
3562. RyanCRG
Quoting stormstricken:


We are all glad IKE didn't do the worst it could have.

Anyone with a Harvard MBA should have more tact than to turn themselves into such a miserable PEST on this board. Don't you have anything at all better to do? get a life already!

You guys don't get it? He's a TROLL, I highly doubt he has every stepped foot on a college campus. Just ignore..
ah yes MBA they loved that their two story houses now have a onestory prestine ocean views its like the ocean is right at their doorstep *sigh*
IvansEx, here is the link. Link
I'm kind of wondering about the thousands of Katrina folks who fled NOLA to Houston and never left. If I was one of them I would:

A) Be trying to erase the bullseye on my forehead or

b) Move to Duluth.
Updated blog on 91L, others interests in tropical atlantic.

fire831rescue's wunderblog
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Future 92L


We already have 92L
chunks of asphalt was blowing around at reporters last night.
Looks like surge was 12 feet into Galveston/Galveston Bay...

Thanks for the eye going directly over Galveston Bay.
Wunderground just doesn't have it up yet guess no models are out on it.

Anyone see anyone see any of the models developing 92l?
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Future 92L


definetly

this system does not depend on maximum diurnal phases to flare up convection. This system will have to be watched.

The GFS model forecast it to be a fish storm....However..during the past few runs..it has been strengthening the ridge to its west...decreasing the chance of recurving out to sea
3573. Hhunter
the big disappointment is harvards' mba program..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Huh? That was confirmed by the NHC and FEMA, Gustav caused 20 Billion Dollars in damages and will be retired.


It's probably the difference between insured losses and economic losses. Gustav's insured losses will probably end up at $4 billion, but that doesn't include flooding, storm surge, etc that might push it over $20 billion in total
Quoting KRL:
Officials now say 140,000 people ignored orders to evacuate in the mandatory evacuation zone.

1,450 calls have come in to 911 already from people trapped in their homes surrounded by water.

So sick of seeing taxpayers have to foot the bill for these complete idiots that don't listen to evac orders and then put law enforcement, fire rescue, and the national guardsment at risk having to go and rescue them.

There should be heavy fines and penalties imposed on the people that don't listen to evacuations.


Mayor of Houston just sadi they are working a backjlog of some 6000 911 calls.. there's some hearbreak there..
Did anyone hear about the ship "Antalina". Did she make it through the hurricane?? If so can u post links for the aftermath of the ship and crew?
Quoting KRL:


Are you kidding? The US NAVY was right there for the people of Haiti with a full ship load of relief supplies near their worst hit areas. The United Nations is there also.

We take care of lots of unfortunate situations and disasters around the world every day.

No one can say the US isn't generous with helping others. I bet if you looked at the numbers, there is no other country on the planet that even comes close to the amount of funds, donations, and hands on relief help we give to the rest of the world.

Even during financial crisises like now, we still always find ways to help and give. That's a core principle this country was founded on and lives by to this day.


In terms of total amount, yes. But, in terms of us gov. aid per US citizen, we rank around 15th to 20th, and the Norwegians, Swedes, and Dutch tend be at the top.

So we do very well, but we have some room for improvement.

When it comes to private per capita giving we are at or very near the top, but the total amount is small compared to what the feds do.
Chuncks of Asphalt!!!!!!! that is quite a sotry.
What I don't understand is that the video reporters were showing appeared that the surge was at the least level with the top of the "17 ft" wall, so how can the surge have been less than "15.6 ft"
They're expecting the economic losses to be near $100 billion.
You have to add the wave height to the surge - it doesn't mean that the waters only got that high - it means that the underlying water mass went up by that amount & then there were waves on top of it.

Quoting wanabwetherman:
Did anyone hear about the ship "Antalina". Did she make it through the hurricane?? If so can u post links for the aftermath of the ship and crew?


They had it on CNN earlier, they made it out ok.

Link
Quoting wanabwetherman:
Did anyone hear about the ship "Antalina". Did she make it through the hurricane?? If so can u post links for the aftermath of the ship and crew?


The ship and crew made it through fine, I saw it on CNN
How strong does the GFS show 92l at??? well its 1/2 way across no use in worring about it too much now but GFS has been good this year so.
Entergy, electric company for much of the SE TX area, is reporting that their finding damage exceeding what they had with Rita.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Huh? That was confirmed by the NHC and FEMA, Gustav caused 20 Billion Dollars in damages and will be retired.


Sorry but I dont find that figure anywhere.. here is another source.

Risk modeling firm Risk Management Solutions estimated that Gustav, which made landfall Monday morning in Louisiana, could cost the insurance industry between $4 billion and $10 billion in onshore and offshore losses. That would make Gustav one of the ten most expensive storms the country has ever experienced.

Link
Quoting wanabwetherman:
Did anyone hear about the ship "Antalina". Did she make it through the hurricane?? If so can u post links for the aftermath of the ship and crew?


Here's the latest I saw: Link
3588. LLHi
the two storm chasers that have the website with live feed found large chunks of asphalt all along the road (seawall road?) this morning while driving around and they couldn't figure out where the asphalt had come from

i wonder
06Z GFS long range suggests increased CV activity toward the middle and end of the run.
3590. Patrap
Im Glad ATM isnt vectoring to Baton Rouge or MSY NOLA..

He might just Find some Gustav in his,er..cockpit.
LOL
Beaumont newsfeed: Link
Quoting unknownuser:


Sorry but I dont find that figure anywhere.. here is another source.

Risk modeling firm Risk Management Solutions estimated that Gustav, which made landfall Monday morning in Louisiana, could cost the insurance industry between $4 billion and $10 billion in onshore and offshore losses. That would make Gustav one of the ten most expensive storms the country has ever experienced.

Link


Thats insurance, but there is some other costly stuff to take into account. 20 Billion does sound a bit too high.
3593. SEFL
Quoting littleredkelpie:

a scary thought indeed! I felt much better about his childish attitude when I thought he WAS a child.


And he is still getting space on this blog without being here!!
3594. Patrap
Some Extreme or someone post the models on 92l just wanna see it plz thx. :)
3596. LLHi
oh man!
the asphalt all over the road was the memorial for the 1900 storm!
it's totally destroyed
Here is the video on rescue of the Antalina crew.
3599. Sophmom
Quoting Scotchtape:

Exactly. Fixating on Galveston and Houston is like focusing on New Orleans with Katrina. Yeah, it was bad there, but it was even worse further up the coast. Port Arthur for instance was an area people were especially worried about. Those there are likely in dire straits. Also, don't forget about the refineries and petrochemical plants in Port Arthur and all along the region north/east of Galveston. Haven't heard a blip about them. Port Arthur was one of the areas that people were most worried about.

In addition, the Midwest/Great Lakes region has received a ton of rain. Ike's remnants will cause severe flooding in these already saturated areas. Between the economic impact and the rain, Ike will be a storm that affects the entire country.


Hurricane Katrina was a Natural Disaster that decimated much of the Louisiana, Alabama and, most especially, the Mississippi coastlines. The Flood in New Orleans was an Engineering Disaster, the failure of federally planned, built and maintained infrastructure.

Just had a phone call from sister in Houston. Got cut off. All she got to say was "Nobody has power." Can't get through trying to call back. Texting instead.
Link
oops, forgot to attach the Antalina rescue link.
Morning!

Hurricane Ike Eyewall Video 100 MPH Winds Plus Storm Surge.

Very concerned about Beaumont. Anyone have info? (Obviously very concerned about all, but we had so many on here who had evacuated to Beaumont. Even though we tried to tell them to get out and keep going.) As people get links to definitive damage/casualty lists, please post the links, not the lists. Much easier to follow the links. All of you who want to express your ego instead of find your compassion and gratitude, go elsewhere.
Just logged on to find out if there is any truth in something I heard. I was just told that 5 levees have been breeched in New Orleans and that there was now a mandatory evac there. Anyone know anything about this?
92L could be a problem. 850mb vorticy has gotten better from 900UTC to 1200 UTC and shear is dropping over it.
Bridge City, neighbor is rescuing people from their homes because houses started flooding at 4:30a.m., many who were in thier attics for 5 hrs.
Quoting EarthwalkUSA:
Very concerned about Beaumont. Anyone have info? (Obviously very concerned about all, but we had so many on here who had evacuated to Beaumont. Even though we tried to tell them to get out and keep going.) As people get links to definitive damage/casualty lists, please post the links, not the lists. Much easier to follow the links. All of you who want to express your ego instead of find your compassion and gratitude, go elsewhere.


BEAUMONT TX NEWS FEED AT TOP AND BOTTOM OF EACH HOUR: Link
Quoting FEEDERBAND:
Just logged on to find out if there is any truth in something I heard. I was just told that 5 levees have been breeched in New Orleans and that there was now a mandatory evac there. Anyone know anything about this?


Not in NOLA as far as I know - there were some problems with levees outside of the "official" flood protection area - they were south and west of the city. Not sure about Terrebonne parish - they were having problems but I'm not clear on the outcome.
Quoting peks:
Well..several governments in europa already said that they will send at least money to the US to help after Ike..

Many countries sent aid to America after Katrina. The Dept of State coordinated the aid.
Quoting setfree7:
Bridge City, neighbor is rescuing people from their homes because houses started flooding at 4:30a.m., many who were in thier attics for 5 hrs.


I am afraid we are about to hear about a lot of that.. so terrifying. I bet this part of the Gulf coast heeds their evac orders next time.
Another hole in the blog.
parking garages flooded. people who stayed were told to move their cars, now you can barely see the tops - near the River Oaks - Bayou on the Bay area.
Quoting fire831rescue:
Another hole in the blog.


'This 'ere blog has got more holes than Swiss!'
Quoting Patrap:
Im Glad ATM isnt vectoring to Baton Rouge or MSY NOLA..

He might just Find some Gustav in his,er..cockpit.
LOL


HA..you talkin bout me??!! Interestng the NEW, New Orleans Lakefront airport had no ATC service until just recently. The road leading to the tower was covered with water yesterday. All these TX airports closings and wth...NEW???
3615. gnair
About compassion ...

Just because someone complains about those who put themselves in harms way does not mean that that person has no compassion. But, there's compassion and there's compassion. I have enormous compassion for someone who, through no fault of his or her own, is put in a dangerous situation and needs rescue. But for those who willfully put themselves in harms way, my compassion is somewhat tempered -- rescue them if possible and help them, but do they have or deserve my full compassion ... not. We have become a nation where people willfully do stupid things and then find that they can turn to the law and blame someone else. Personal responsibility goes a long way, friends. Compassion, yes, understand, no.
Quoting TropicTraveler:

Many countries sent aid to America after Katrina. The Dept of State coordinated the aid.


And so we should.

America has sent aid to many countries over time, but especially after WW2, where we received like... billions off you guys.

It's only right that we re-pay that when the States hits trouble.
Quoting HarvardMBA:
"Tree limbs down, but no major damage"

ROTFLAMO

"Certain Death"

LOL


Haven't you been banned yet?
Longtime lurker here, first time poster.

Discussions of peak surge should keep in mind the fact that a number of gauges broke. Everything between Eagle Point and Sabine Pass went out.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IKE.html#8771510wl

Pulled from a previous post (sorry, I pulled it awhile ago and can't find it now to give proper credit to the original poster)
Eagle Point's gauge works.
Rollover Pass's gauge broke.
Clear Lake's gauge broke.
Battleship Texas State Park gauge broke.
Morgans Point gauge broke.
And then Sabine Pass works.
I-10 & Sheppard severely flooded.
Memorial Dr. severe debris.
Debris is blocking the drains in the streets, including large tree limbs.
clear Lake, flooding, lake went out of its banks.
Hilton near NASA is severely damaged. media staying there, but now will probably have to leave as building is compromised. they had to take cover in stairwells. 1st floor was flooded, at least a couple of feet deep.
3620. SCAnne
They have just said that they saw 3 homes just burn in Galveston.
HarvardMBA you are now on my ignore list all you have been doing is downplaying the damage that people have been going through
3622. jmelan
Quoting FEEDERBAND:
Just logged on to find out if there is any truth in something I heard. I was just told that 5 levees have been breeched in New Orleans and that there was now a mandatory evac there. Anyone know anything about this?


absolutely not true in new orleans, no evac, sitting comfortably at home right now
3623. chrisrw
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
HarvardMBA you are now on my ignore list all you have been doing is downplaying the damage that people have been going through


What took you so long? And, people, PLEASE stop quoting this moron!
Invest 92L
Created an account here just so I could say a couple things. I am sitting in Longville LA which is near the Texas border 40 miles north of Lake Charles. I still have power but who knows for how long?
Storm W...You are the man. Your forcast was dead on, as was the NHC. I am sorry that a decent man such as yourself has been subjected to so much abuse over the past week.
Thank you for your help and your service to all of us.
As for damage. Lake Charles is flooded. The flooding is FAR worse than during Rita. I would imagine that Beaumont and Vidor TX are as bad or worse. I have been told by a friend who lives in Vidor that Hwy 105 is under water. Many sections of I-10 have standing water on them from Lake Charles to Houston.
I understand that Cameron LA has suffered a serious blow from a catastrophic surge of water. When this is all said and done, the water damage will surprise many who are thinking that Ike was no big deal. My daughter's apt. in downtown Lake Charles has water on the first floor and it DID NOT flood during Rita.
3626. Melagoo
I think the worse case scenario approach to forecasting these powerful storms is the best way to get people out of harms way. Ike and Gustav were both expected to do more damage and thank god they didn't do what they could have ... my 2 cents
I am worried about friends in Beaumont -anyone with any news -please share. I am awaiting the news link and the top of the hour.
3628. SCAnne
Hello.... has the blog crashed?
Updated

Whole Picture.. Tracks and Cones
Ike.. Tracks & Cones
Ike & Hurricane Hunters Tracks & Cones, Level II Nexrad Radar Image
Invest 91.. East Coast of Florida?
Invest 92L.. Second in a new train?
92L has a decent chance, shear is lowering, dry air (SAL) Virtually non-Existent.

I was looking at the Long range GFS, looks like were going to see an increase in Cape Verde Activity in a week or two
3631. FLdewey
For future reference please spread the word that taping windows does absolutely nothing to protect you or your property. It's a well documented myth.



D'oh.
3632. keyjo50
Starting to get outer bands now in N. Louisiana (Ruston -- halfway btwn TX and Mississippi borders). Wind gusts picking up. Ground still saturated from Gustav, so expect trees down, flash flooding, and power outages. Gusts up to 32 right now.

Will updates as I can.
Anyone have information about PORT ARTHUR TX - Proctor Street residential area ? Flooding ? Power ?
3634. 7544
Quoting hurricane556:
92L could be a problem. 850mb vorticy has gotten better from 900UTC to 1200 UTC and shear is dropping over it.


that will not be the only promblem take a look at the train coming at the end of this run .

Link
Quoting KRL:
Officials now say 140,000 people ignored orders to evacuate in the mandatory evacuation zone.

1,450 calls have come in to 911 already from people trapped in their homes surrounded by water.

So sick of seeing taxpayers have to foot the bill for these complete idiots that don't listen to evac orders and then put law enforcement, fire rescue, and the national guardsment at risk having to go and rescue them.

There should be heavy fines and penalties imposed on the people that don't listen to evacuations.


No doubt some will have payed the ultimate penalty.
Quoting 7544:


that will not be the only promblem take a look at the train coming at the end of this run .



link?
KHOU live feed from the east end of Galveston Island looks horrendous.
so fire831,

still think its going north???

yea we took a heavy hit here in clear lake... not a pretty sight.

No where near as bad as beaumont or galveston.
My husband works on an oil rig that they moved up the canals and secured somewhere near Abbeville, La. Does anyone know of where I can get any kind of storm report for this area? I have been worried sick and unable to find out anything!
Quoting FLdewey:
For future reference please spread the word that taping windows does absolutely nothing to protect you or your property. It's a well documented myth.



D'oh.


It's not meant to protect anything It's meant to help hold the glass together if it breaks.....everybody knows that.
3642. W4JWM
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE EMERGENCY CONTACT to authorities in the effected area and UNABLE to make contact any other way to check on the health and welfare of a party that you fear may be in very real danger, and who did not evacuate, I will VIA Amateur radio make contact with authorities about that person to be checked on.. Please remember that if authorities have already been contacted - please do not repeat the request. 6000 requests have already been made and in the cue.

I will need to have the following information..
Full Name, description, last known location with address, car type, any other type of contact info.

I will be unable to provide you with a reply or conformation from that party as it goes through multiable agencies.

Please e-mail your request to w4jwm@arrl.net
--
Jim Menefee - W4JWM
James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.
F.C.C. Licensed Engineer
Quoting BrittneyMarie:
My husband works on an oil rig that they moved up the canals and secured somewhere near Abbeville, La. Does anyone know of where I can get any kind of storm report for this area? I have been worried sick and unable to find out anything!


I would suggest www.theadvertiser.com or www.nola.com although I'm not sure how much help they'll be
Port Arthur levee's held up.
3646. duranta
Evacuation for the working class not always that easy. People in Louisiana spent 100's, if not thousands of dollars each, evacuating for Gustave. The only reimbursement is from FEMA if your home is uninhabitable. Also a modest amount of food stamps from the state of Louisiana. Many family budgets are simply busted and rent and light bills now aren't getting paid, and will be paid late.
3647. 996tt
High cat 2 with high cat 2 storm surge. No need to change SS scale.
Does anyone know how those folks at the bar faired?
3649. FLdewey
Quoting StormSurgeon:


It's not meant to protect anything It's meant to help hold the glass together if it breaks.....everybody knows that.


Right, but what everybody obviously doesn't know is it doesn't do that either. It serves no purpose other than to waste time and make clean up more difficult. :-)

3650. azduck
The jog to the north saved Galveston & Texas City from the highest surges - but the Bolivar Peninsula to High Island really took it on the chin. Hopefully the vast majority of people in that extremely vulnerable area evacuated. Based on the reports from Galveston and Sabine Pass, a 20 foot surge at High Island would be consistent with the models.

With luck there will not be severe loss of life from Ike - but the Galveston mayor should still be recalled.
Quoting W4JWM:
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE EMERGENCY CONTACT to authorities in the effected area and UNABLE to make contact any other way to check on the health and welfare of a party that you fear may be in very real danger, and who did not evacuate, I will VIA Amateur radio make contact with authorities about that person to be checked on.. Please remember that if authorities have already been contacted - please do not repeat the request. 6000 requests have already been made and in the cue.

I will need to have the following information..
Full Name, description, last known location with address, car type, any other type of contact info.

I will be unable to provide you with a reply or conformation from that party as it goes through multiable agencies.

Please e-mail your request to w4jwm@arrl.net
--
Jim Menefee - W4JWM
James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.
F.C.C. Licensed Engineer


You sir, are a mensch. Thank you.
3652. RyanCRG
The 1900 Galveston Hurricane Memorial was all but destroyed...
Quoting fire831rescue:


I don't know whether to comment back or ignore you and report you to admin....


do what you gotta do brother, I was so sick of hearing you all week now we have what we have here... devestation... prayers out to all the people that was in the way of this catastrophe, I hope this shows that this blog is what it is a blog... listen to the professionals.
Quoting 996tt:
High cat 2 with high cat 2 storm surge. No need to change SS scale.

You know, I have to agree. Looks like there is quite a bit of damage, and I'm sure we'll see more, throughout the day, as pictures, and video come in, but thus far, it doesn't look anywhere near as bad as it was thought.

Concern I now have, is with all of the "certain death" comments, and hype of this being a Cat. 4 surge, etc., it actually may cause even more not to leave Galveston, and other areas, when the next storm threatens. MSNBC interviewed a few people this morning, who said they would still stay, if given the chance to do it over again.
NOLA is fine..southwest of there faired worse..

I'm really suprised how much SWLA was taken off gaurd here. Night before last I posted sea hieght nowcast & forecasts, along with tide forecasts, stating this looked like flooding for SWLA should be worse than Rita.

BATON ROUGE -- State officials said Saturday that the Jefferson Parish town of Lafitte was under six feet of water because of flooding driven by Hurricane Ike.

Chris Macaluso, spokesman for the Office of Coastal Protection and Restoration, said the flooding was due to "overtopping'' of the levee system, which is not part of the federal levees that protect other areas of the New Orleans area.

Man, the Neches still hasn't peaked. Getting to about as high as I might have expected, though. The wrong-damn-way flow might have peaked.





From Link
Quoting FLdewey:


Right, but what everybody obviously doesn't know is it doesn't do that either. It serves no purpose other than to waste time and make clean up more difficult. :-)



I know, I've never taped windows. If the wind is strong enough to bust windows out then there's a lot more to worry about than broken glass.
This is looking up a little, though. Beaumont Emptyprise report that Downtown Beaumont doesn't have water in the streets, Nedelnad's Police Chief went driving (aka not flooded), and Port Neches had water in the park (not an all that uncommon occurrence).

Link
3660. Enola
Quoting W4JWM:
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE EMERGENCY CONTACT to authorities in the effected area and UNABLE to make contact any other way to check on the health and welfare of a party that you fear may be in very real danger, and who did not evacuate, I will VIA Amateur radio make contact with authorities about that person to be checked on.. Please remember that if authorities have already been contacted - please do not repeat the request. 6000 requests have already been made and in the cue.

I will need to have the following information..
Full Name, description, last known location with address, car type, any other type of contact info.

I will be unable to provide you with a reply or conformation from that party as it goes through multiable agencies.

Please e-mail your request to w4jwm@arrl.net
--
Jim Menefee - W4JWM
James W. Menefee, Jr. P.A.
F.C.C. Licensed Engineer

And, you are also a hero in all of this...bless you.
3662. Patrap
Generator Safety

Gasoline-powered generators can be useful after a storm knocks out power to your home. However, generators also can be deadly if not used properly. Generators emit carbon monoxide, a colorless, odorless gas that can be lethal. People have died or been seriously injured due to fires caused by generators. To stay safe, please follow these tips:

* Always operate a generator outside a home in a ventilated area, well away from any windows, doors, vents and other openings.
* Purchase a carbon monoxide detector and install it in your home.
* Never operate a generator on the balcony of a multi-unit building such as an apartment or condominium.
* Never refuel a generator while it's running or still hot.
* Never overload the generator.
* Never connect a portable generator to the main electrical panel in your home.
* Carefully inspect a generator after long storage periods for broken or missing parts.Wipe off all dust.
* Store the generator in a dry, ventilated area with its fuel tank empty.
* Before storing, clean the generator by removing all oil and dirt.
* Don't store the generator near fuel supplies.
* Don't store the generator near appliances such as water heaters or pumps, especially if they're gas powered.
3663. bjdsrq
Quoting redavni:
I can't wait until the crisis addicts, doom sayers, and other various ambulance chasers around here head out so we can get back to talking about the weather. Yesterday you all scream everyone is going to die. Today you scream about 911 calls from survivors. What is it going to be tommorrow? Lamenting the fact that Burger King is still closed? Oh the horror!


Well, the Hooters on the Galveston pier is now sitting in the road if that raises the bar.
Quoting BrittneyMarie:
My husband works on an oil rig that they moved up the canals and secured somewhere near Abbeville, La. Does anyone know of where I can get any kind of storm report for this area? I have been worried sick and unable to find out anything!
Try www.theoildrum.com . You may have to dig around the site.
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


I, for one, am not bashing you. I believe this is a blog, with hobbiest, for the most part, who love to track hurricanes. EVERYBODY is welcome to their own opinions, and allowed to make their own forecasts, as to what THEY think a storm may do. You thought it may go north, and you were not alone. Many PROFESSIONAL mets had some concerns this may go north, including my local met here in Louisiana.

This is a blog, and anybody who would come here to get a weather forecast, to be quite blunt, is riduculous, therefore I don't have an issue seeing people make forecasts that are against the NHC, based on what they feel/see, even if they are wrong. Just my opinion.
Thanks for all your tips and links Patrap. It is important if you are going to generate safely to use generator safety.

And Redavni...my Burger King is open.
Quoting redavni:
I can't wait until the crisis addicts, doom sayers, and other various ambulance chasers around here head out so we can get back to talking about the weather. Yesterday you all scream everyone is going to die. Today you scream about 911 calls from survivors. What is it going to be tommorrow? Lamenting the fact that Burger King is still closed? Oh the horror!


Wasn't it you who was talking about the CDC lab being breached and releasing 'something far worse than IKE'?

People will post on what interests them, deal with it or shut off your machine and enjoy the weekend.
3668. Patrap
Lots of flooding issues on the North Shore and other areas in Se. La.

nola.com for Parish by Parish info Link


Tropical storm warning dropped, but wind advisory, coastal flood warning still in effect
A wind advisory remains in effect for southeast Louisiana, including the New Orleans area, Lake Pontchartrain and coastal waters, as sustained winds of up to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will continue through 7 p.m.
Submit your Hurricane Ike storm photos
# Plaquemines deputy injured in rescue attempt 11:37 a.m. CT
# Floodgates still shut at Harvey Canal, 17th Street, London Avenue canals 11:14 a.m. CT
# Lafitte, Terrebonne Parish flooded by Ike 10:47 a.m. CT

• More Hurricane Ike news

Orange Texas and Bridge City, near the La Border have residents in Need of rooftop rescues as reported by CNN
Quoting atmoaggie:
This is looking up a little, though. Beaumont Emptyprise report that Downtown Beaumont doesn't have water in the streets, Nedelnad's Police Chief went driving (aka not flooded), and Port Neches had water in the park (not an all that uncommon occurrence).

Link
Did you see my earlier post re: flood frequency flows for Neches? The 10-year is around 60,000 and the 100-yr around 136,000 cfs IIRC. That should help you watch the gauge, if you know about what frequency will flood the area in question.
Quoting ChristopherH:


I, for one, am not bashing you. I believe this is a blog, with hobbiest, for the most part, who love to track hurricanes. EVERYBODY is welcome to their own opinions, and allowed to make their own forecasts, as to what THEY think a storm may do. You thought it may go north, and you were not alone. Many PROFESSIONAL mets had some concerns this may go north, including my local met here in Louisiana.

This is a blog, and anybody who would come here to get a weather forecast, to be quite blunt, is riduculous, therefore I don't have an issue seeing people make forecasts that are against the NHC, based on what they feel/see, even if they are wrong. Just my opinion.


I agree 100%
For those in Brazosport, the local paper has set up a blog site to document goings on in Surfside, Clute & LJ.
Link

Lots of wind damage, most f it seems simi,ar to Hurricane Alicia.
3672. Patrap
Thanx for your input as well ATM..

A lot of folks are in Shock in Many areas, as this Event struck across a wide area.

Many Have been affected.

Folks need to get ready for the Darkness tonight and be a good neighbor to one another as Night will come and the Gravity of this Event sinks in.

Many woes are still to come.
3673. SEFL
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


I forgive you!!!...now quit whining, please.
3674. Zaphod
Fortunately the estimates were high, which in my view is a good thing. For industrial and market predictions, a best-guess median estimate is desirable, but where lives are on the line conservative evacs must be the rule. As long as we have inadequate prediction tools we have to assume the worst. Ike alllmmmooost had superb conditions, but dry air and a bit of shear made the difference between a Cat 4/5 storm and a Cat 1/2 storm over just the last 60 hours before landfall.

Now we're to the point of the storm where it turns out that the metropolitan area didn't fare as badly as expected, and media focus will shift to business-as-usual as everybody signs with relief.

Of course the rural areas between Galveston and S. LA will turn out to have fared poorly (again) and nobody will really notice. The damage estimates will quietly trend upwards as infrastructure repair teams move into the less urban areas. Hopefully the surge was just low enough to spare the oil refineries, as that is important to us all.

On the plus side, the notion of having mandatory evac for only flooding areas worked pretty well, esp since the flooding was lower than anticipated. One the minus side, too many people stayed, and more will next time.
3675. Liann
Quoting StormSurgeon:


I know, I've never taped windows. If the wind is strong enough to bust windows out then there's a lot more to worry about than broken glass.


Once there are ANY perforations in the building (windows, doors, vents, wall failures) the rest of the building is stressed much more highly and progressive failure or collapse is a real imminent danger.

Cleaning up broken glass is the least of your post-storm worries. In prior centuries hinged shutters on every window, ready year-round, were a standard part of the architecture. Surpringly, modern people talk about "putting up" and "taking down" their storm shutters. There is nothing dumber than architecture with fake shutters for looks, but building in 'cane country without permanent storm shutters look pretty ugly. I wouldn't buy one unless the price was discounted to rebate my costs of adding them after sale. NOBODY should buy one. Let the builders know that you don't like the looks of a house with plywood over the glass, or the hassles of putting up and taking down window protection.
3676. sebestt
On NW side of Houston here. I am on Barker-Cypress Road near West Road. I lost a lot of shingles and satellite dish. Was pretty weird experience because the thunder sounded like a train approaching. I am really surprised I have electricity because there is still a lot of rain and wind. I am exhausted because it was almost impossible to sleep with all the noises! I really hope we do not begin to hear really bad news from the people that decided to stay in Galveston. Most people here thought it was going to curve similar to Rita. My guess is next time around more people will definitely evacuate.
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


Quoting
ChristopherH:



I, for one, am not bashing you. I believe this is a blog, with hobbiest, for the most part, who love to track hurricanes. EVERYBODY is welcome to their own opinions, and allowed to make their own forecasts, as to what THEY think a storm may do. You thought it may go north, and you were not alone. Many PROFESSIONAL mets had some concerns this may go north, including my local met here in Louisiana.

This is a blog, and anybody who would come here to get a weather forecast, to be quite blunt, is riduculous, therefore I don't have an issue seeing people make forecasts that are against the NHC, based on what they feel/see, even if they are wrong. Just my opinion.


Just what I was thinking, you said it better than I could have. Don't sweat it Fire-
Quoting NinetyWt:
Did you see my earlier post re: flood frequency flows for Neches? The 10-year is around 60,000 and the 100-yr around 136,000 cfs IIRC. That should help you watch the gauge, if you know about what frequency will flood the area in question.

No, I didn't see that earlier. That is good info. I wonder how the upstream flow at half of the 10 year rate compares. (when it meets the flow going downstream) Something has to give, right?
Corpus Christi was spared. Taking my boards down for the last time this yr hopefully.
I'm not whining. I'm making my point. People on here are trying to make me feel guilty for voicing my opinion. It don't work that way. Someone's always looking for a scapegoat and right now, I seem to be the easy target.
Quoting sebestt:
On NW side of Houston here. I am on Barker-Cypress Road near West Road. I lost a lot of shingles and satellite dish. Was pretty weird experience because the thunder sounded like a train approaching. ......


That was probably a tornado - they sound just like a train!
3682. RyanCRG
This is true, if you have ever seen the house of parliament in the Bahamas, they have permanent metal shutters on hinges, and they have had them for generations now. It's a colonial building. If I were to build a house I would consider this, not only are they functional, but done this way they actually don't look bad. My parents built a colonial house like this, but with fake shutters and impact windows.

Quoting Liann:


Once there are ANY perforations in the building (windows, doors, vents, wall failures) the rest of the building is stressed much more highly and progressive failure or collapse is a real imminent danger.

Cleaning up broken glass is the least of your post-storm worries. In prior centuries hinged shutters on every window, ready year-round, were a standard part of the architecture. Surpringly, modern people talk about "putting up" and "taking down" their storm shutters. There is nothing dumber than architecture with fake shutters for looks, but building in 'cane country without permanent storm shutters look pretty ugly. I wouldn't buy one unless the price was discounted to rebate my costs of adding them after sale. NOBODY should buy one. Let the builders know that you don't like the looks of a house with plywood over the glass, or the hassles of putting up and taking down window protection.
I now hypothesis that Ike did the same thing with his surge, as he did with his wind. He was so large, that his winds never were able to spin up, to cat. 3/4/5 strength. I believe the surge may have done the same thing. His circulation was so large, that although his "I.K.E" was higher than K, it was dispersed along a larger area, thus although his "I.K.E" may have been that of a Cat. 4 storm, it was spread over such a large area, that those areas received (it averaged out to) Cat. 2 wind/surge, etc, compared to had Ike been a much more compact storm. I believe the SS scale holds true, still.
3684. JRRP
NEW BLOG!!!
3685. sebestt
The only reason I say that is the sound did not occur until I saw lightning. You would hear the sound right after a lightning strike. It was not a constant sound. I just assumed it was the sound effect due to thunder in high speed wind. But I am not an expert on any level.

I might lose electricity again because some heavy bands getting ready to come through again. Got the AC really cranking to get it as cold as possible.
3686. bixms
Quoting fire831rescue:
I'm not whining. I'm making my point. People on here are trying to make me feel guilty for voicing my opinion. It don't work that way. Someone's always looking for a scapegoat and right now, I seem to be the easy target.


Looks like that "hurricane sandwich" you spoke of a couple of days ago is happening now....(sorry, don't know how to show "link")
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+/48h/3h
Let me comment on wrong forecasts. The NHC forecasted Ike hiting Tampa, South Texas, Mid LA and finally where it hit. And..... my point..... they did a good job. So if a person commenting on this blog is less than accurate in a prediction, he's in good company! We discuss all opinions. That helps us figure out whats happening.
3688. russm1
Quoting fire831rescue:
Just for the record, does anyone on here ever remember me saying I was a professional met? I do believe I said, time after time after time, to follow the NHC and local weather. Never once did I say that what I was saying was the complete truth. I make mistakes just like everyone else. I'm human. For those who want to bash me, fine. Remember, you made the choice. I didn't force you to do anything.


No problems fire. We all appreciate your input on the blog. Just tape a big "L" on your forehead and lets move on to the next storm.
Found a Beaumont Blogger.
Quoting Patrap:
Generator Safety

Gasoline-powered generators can be useful after a storm knocks out power to your home. However, generators also can be deadly if not used properly. Generators emit carbon monoxide, a colorless, odorless gas that can be lethal. People have died or been seriously injured due to fires caused by generators. To stay safe, please follow these tips:

* Always operate a generator outside a home in a ventilated area, well away from any windows, doors, vents and other openings.
* Purchase a carbon monoxide detector and install it in your home.
* Never operate a generator on the balcony of a multi-unit building such as an apartment or condominium.
* Never refuel a generator while it's running or still hot.
* Never overload the generator.
* Never connect a portable generator to the main electrical panel in your home.
* Carefully inspect a generator after long storage periods for broken or missing parts.Wipe off all dust.
*


We have access to and recomend the following instead of gasoline generators:
Solar powered generators
Water from air generators
Full house purification systems
Specific essential oils to: treat water, treat water-borne and airborne disease post-hurricane and flood.
There is a lot to know about the probableillness that many are now going to face because of water/air quality, being barefoot and waist-deep in toxic water, mold in homes partially flooded(mold that then enters your lungs.) Please email if you need help/advice/have questions. NOTE: This is not a commercial:)
freaking blog is a cow and the post are being eaten up ugh laksjdlaskjd
3692. WmMw
Quoting HarvardMBA:
"Tree limbs down, but no major damage"

ROTFLAMO

"Certain Death"

LOL


It seems the people in Galveston who ignored warnings were not as stupid and morally negligent as they were being portrayed here on this blog site.

Is the tendency of media and of this blog site to over-hype hurricane disaster possibilities?

Are a large percentage of the people who populate this blog site disaster-enthusiasts? That is, people who derive excitement and pleasurable adrenaline rushes at the thoughts of massive and extreme disaster situations, even while genuinely bemoaning the loss of life and damages to individuals' property?

Do many people experience a dichotomy of their mental state: on the one hand, deriving hormonal pleasure rushes in their brains at the thoughts of massive disaster, yet, juxtaposed to that, experiencing feelings of remorse for the individual victims? Does the thrill and guilty pleasure derived from the prospects of cataclysmic destruction and disaster become denied and submerged by the conscious mind?

I believe these thoughts are relevant in so far as they may explain biases in expectations for worse-case scenarios.

Quoting WestbankNOLA:


I would suggest www.theadvertiser.com or www.nola.com although I'm not sure how much help they'll be

There are also www.klfy.com and www.katc.com
I've heard from a friend, the water at her home, south of Abbeville, is about 8 inches lower than Rita pushed in.
paula


Been lurking here for 2 days now trying to get as much as information as possible. My mother lives in Bacliff/Bayview area. She is one block off of the bay which I believe she called Bayshore. She is down from Noah's Ark Bar. She is back behind the Valero gas station off of Gordy/Lytle Rds. on Walsh street. You can see the bay from her fronch porch though she was one block off.

I haven't slept yet as I have been on every webpage imaginable and KHOU's chatsite. I have tried repeatedly over the last 10 hours or more to find out any information about her house. She is just 10 minutes from the Kemah Boardwalk. By the highway that goes to Home Depot.

She weathered the storm up in the Galleria area and is safe. She has no electricity to find out any information and is looking to me for some answers. She does have cell service when I can actually get through. She has no idea if she can go home or what the status of her house is.

I am desperate to find out more information.

If anyone has some can you please email me at:

naughtynoregon@aol.com

(go ahead and laugh at the address LOL I sell Pure Romance) :)

Thank you so much and I am so thankful Ike didn't pack the punch we thought he would and that most are all safe.

xoxo Stacy in Oregon