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Igor spares Bermuda; Fanapi hits China; exceptionally quiet in the Pacific

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2010

The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds just below hurricane force to the island. Winds at the Bermuda Airport peaked at 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph began at 10 am AST on Sunday, and were still present as of 9:38 am AST (44 mph, gusting to 53 mph.) Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past Bermuda, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix.

Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Igor as seen by the International Space Station at 9:56 am EDT September 14, 2010. At the time, Igor was a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. This image ranks as one of the top-five most spectacular hurricane images ever taken from space, in my mind. To see the full-size image, visit the NASA Earth Observatory web site.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a well-defined surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and downdrafts created by mid-level dry air getting ingested into the storm are creating surface arc clouds on the west side of the storm, as seen in recent visible satellite loops. 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it, and the amount of thunderstorm activity will have to increase in order for this system to be considered a tropical depression. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and most of the major forecast models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 80% of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi hits China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong this morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Fanapi was the strongest typhoon so far this season, peaking at Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds shortly before weakening to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds when it hit northern Taiwan early Sunday morning, local time. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

A remarkably quiet Western Pacific typhoon season and Eastern Pacific hurricane season
It has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. Before Fanapi, the strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. According to statistics forwarded to me by NOAA meteorologist Paul Stanko on Guam, by this point in an ordinary typhoon season, we should have had 17 named storms, 11 typhoons, and 2 super supertyphoons (winds of 150+ mph.) This year, we've had just 11 named storms, 5 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record low for a typhoon season was 18 named storms (set in 1998), 9 typhoons (set in 1998), and no supertyphoons (set in 1974.) We have a chance of beating all of these records this year. The peak date for the Western Pacific typhoon season is August 28, so we are well past the peak.

It's a similar story out in the Eastern Pacific, where a near-record quiet hurricane season is occurring. So far there have been 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Ordinarily, we should have had 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricane by this point in the season. Since reliable satellite records of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity began in 1970, the quietest season on record was 1977, when just 8 named storms occurred. The fewest hurricanes occurred in 2007 (four), and there have been two years with no intense hurricanes. The peak of Eastern Pacific hurricane season is around August 25, and on average we can expect just 3 more named storms this year. Thus, we could set records for the fewest named storms and hurricanes this year.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in China at 5:15 UTC on September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting cat5hurricane:
SHIPS is insane. 137mph in 120 hrs. Oh man.



Just a bit north of most of the models and it shoots the gap. Yikes.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone with a Vortice map of future 95L? That system down there has one heck of feeder band on its west side arcing up along the Antilles.


Here is your vorticity map....its got some going

6Z GFS @ 87 hrs.



Quoting SuperYooper:


Just a bit north of most of the models and it shoots the gap. Yikes.
Shooting the gap is what's REALLY scary. Illustrated nicely in the Euro model map 'Jeff9641' posted - #2498. Not good. NOt good at all.
2507. Squid28
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm, it loops over Guatemala?

That isn't good.


Not good at all Guatemala has already had torrential rains recentley, additional water and winds is definitely not what they need. Reminds me of the humanitarian disater after Mitch in that part of the world, very sad. Lets pray that it does not repeat....
I posted the following earlier: with Lisa, we now have seen--of course--six September storms (and there's a likely-busy ten days left in the month). That means this year has seen more September action than any years since the current "active" period began in 1995 except for '98 and '00, which both birthed seven, and '02 and '07, which both saw eight.

However...while it may not happen this year, it's interesting to note that of those four years that produced 30 named September storms among them, their followup Octobers managed to only come up with six altogether. Even more interesting: the two years with eight-storm Septembers managed to only come up with one single paltry October storm between them. IOW, there seems to be--at least on the surface of things--an inverse relationship going: the more September storms a season has, the fewer October storms that follow. But again, with things as they are this year--particularly the as-yet untapped heat in the Caribbean--one senses that October probably won't be a similar bust this year.

As always: guess we'll have to wait and see...
Back later. BFN
Goldenblack
"Here is your vorticity map....its got some going"

Thank you!

Seems most systems down there this season have had to fight off dry air until they get near the yucatan. If it gets organized a day or two before what Hermine did, look out.
From NWS office in Tampa. Mathew?

FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW A
STRONG CLOSED MID LVL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
GETS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGER FIELD OF
MOISTURE WITH GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GOMEX.

Quoting Neapolitan:
I posted the following earlier: with Lisa, we now have seen--of course--six September storms (and there's a likely-busy ten days left in the month). That means this year has seen more September action than any years since the current "active" period began in 1995 except for '98 and '00, which both birthed seven, and '02 and '07, which both saw eight.

However...while it may not happen this year, it's interesting to note that of those four years that produced 30 named September storms among them, their followup Octobers managed to only come up with six altogether. Even more interesting: the two years with eight-storm Septembers managed to only come up with one single paltry October storm between them. IOW, there seems to be--at least on the surface of things--an inverse relationship going: the more September storms a season has, the fewer October storms that follow. But again, with things as they are this year--particularly the as-yet untapped heat in the Caribbean--one senses that October probably won't be a similar bust this year.

As always: guess we'll have to wait and see...


I'm betting on it happening again. That said, still expect 3 storms (alongside Matthew who'll run into October, probably) in the month with a November or December straggler.

5 or 6-4-1 left (including Lisa) - that's where I put my flag.
There is a logical explanation as to why Jim Cantore has the power to divert hurricanes away from him. It has to do with the hot air mass residing inside him, and the effects it has on the ridge. In short, Jim is able to reinforce the ridge with his hot air keeping Hurricanes away from whichever location he might be. It has also being noted that he is capable of creating high pressure zones where there were none before. This phenomena is known as the Cantore Effect. So rest assure that is Jim Cantore is in your area, Due to the Cantore Effect we wont need to worry about a hurricane.
Quoting stillwaiting:
....remember it vividly,they were forecasting pinellis county to be 2 islands(the most densely populated county in fl)....tampa bay area has a extreme risk to surge from any tc striking just north,piling water from the sw into the bay and flooding the entire downtown area....


That would be the plan...

Morning.
2519. markot
tampa has not had a major since 1921!!!! a cat 4, would almost be catastrophic... you have to realize there is a bay in tampa.....
Quoting SuperYooper:


Just a bit north of most of the models and it shoots the gap. Yikes.


Shoots the gap??? SHIPS is currently using BAMM for steering, which at the end has it over Guatemala Belize.
too funny, LOL
Quoting markot:
tampa has not had a major since 1921!!!! a cat 4, would almost be catastrophic... you have to realize there is a bay in tampa.....


there's a bay in the Tampa Bay area?
2523. markot
bamm steering is usually wrong.....
Ships must be following the HWRF, CMC, and Euro.
2525. MahFL
Quoting Cotillion:


What's Thursday?


Truecast Thursday ?
Quoting BobinTampa:


there's a bay in the Tampa Bay area?


Go figure...
Quoting GS121:
no facts at the moment but it seems disney world has escaped almost any moderate to significant damage since they opened in the early 1970s. kinda hard to believe isn't it?


That is because Disney builds their buildings to a high code. All electrical needs are underground. By the time any storm gets there (even Charley) they are ready for it. They do a great job keeping guests safe, too.

At least I hope all of that is true...I will be there next weekend. HA
Quoting markot:
tampa has not had a major since 1921!!!! a cat 4, would almost be catastrophic... you have to realize there is a bay in tampa.....
A mid-level cat 2 making a perpendicular landfall before shooting directly up the bay would be devastating. I wouldn't even what to speculate anything greater than a 3 given the shelf over there is so prone to the surge (very shallow) immediatly adjacent to the coast from the bay.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Shoots the gap??? SHIPS is currently using BAMM for steering, which at the end has it over Guatemala Belize.


Oh, I got that. I was thinking if the steering was off on a a 84 hour forcast. Like thats never happened.
We could be seeing another major hurricane by friday, woohoo
Looks like trouble coming into the GOM!

Tropical Update
Quoting Jeff9641:
Ships must be following the HWRF, CMC, and Euro.


Hey Jeff9641- I live in Louisiana and we are hosting a baseball tournament on Oct.2-3 weekend. Is there any model that moves the disturbance in the Carribean towards us?
not meaning to wish this on any other gulf states just wondering.
2536. shawn26
They are always west
Quoting RayRayfromLa:


Hey Jeff9641- I live in Louisiana and we are hosting a baseball tournament on Oct.2-3 weekend. Is there any model that moves the disturbance in the Carribean towards us?
not meaning to wish this on any other gulf states just wondering.


CMC does actually. La to FL need to watch this one.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

I see 95L coming soon

already is
Quoting RayRayfromLa:


Hey Jeff9641- I live in Louisiana and we are hosting a baseball tournament on Oct.2-3 weekend. Is there any model that moves the disturbance in the Carribean towards us?
not meaning to wish this on any other gulf states just wondering.

hold on let me take out my handy dandy crysal ball
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Sept. 21st. 2010


Very nicely done....GREAT JOB!
2542. kwgirl
Quoting markot:
tampa has not had a major since 1921!!!! a cat 4, would almost be catastrophic... you have to realize there is a bay in tampa.....
If Tampa gets hit by a cat 4, then Tampa will be in the bay!
Quoting Jeff9641:


CMC does actually. La to FL need to watch this one.

yes, but looking more likely an eastern gulf attack. anyways you should watch Bob's video. All of his posts are amazing.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Very nicely done....GREAT JOB!


Thanks Tampa! Should be an interesting next 7 days for sure. I am gonna try and get the fans blowing West with this one!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
846 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010

.UPDATE...SENT AND UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE EXTENSION
OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF
PR...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 2 PM
AST. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM
FORECAST TO REFLECT LESS SHOWER EXPECTED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VI
AND MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.




One word : boring (lol)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like trouble coming into the GOM!

Tropical Update


You are not kidding!
CMC 240

Quoting kwgirl:
If Tampa gets hit by a cat 4, then Tampa will be in the bay!
pretty much
2550. tacoman
great report bob very detailed especially about the mjo...it's good to know you don't put much stock in that bob...you do your own forecasting and a good forecaster you are...bob i sure this storm goes to the eastern gom we dont need this now on the northern gom...
Looks like all the models now forecast this trough next week to be deep and progressive. So heads-up Florida!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC 240

please tell me I didn't just see that...
Quoting weatherman12345:

hold on let me take out my handy dandy crysal ball


I was asking if any model hinted it coming to La, not if he thought it would hit LA- smart tail!!!
Chaos in Newfoundland:
86 mph wind gusts on shore
80 mph sustained offshore
39 ft. seas just south of the island
States of emergency declared.
Video of floodwaters
Live radio broadcast (Program Name: Q-Newfoundland)
Currently interviewing someone on Random Island saying: "Nothing's ever been seen like this before. There's widespread devastation here--it's undescribable."
Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like all the models now forecast this trough next week to be deep and progressive. So heads-up Florida!


Hey bro I know you will appreciate that cool air the GFS depicts at the end of it's run. Lake Effect Snow? Well See!
Complete Update

95L, I am starting to worry, every time Pottery opens a new bottle of Rum, he starts an invest over his house.

TS Lisa, solidly following the NFI track as per normal



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting btwntx08:

already is
Based on climatological averages from this season it has a 100% chance of causing problems in south Texas.
What this plume of SAL is doing in the eastern caribbean! Not good for health.. I hope it will soon leave us since it's late sept not june..
Quoting RayRayfromLa:


I was asking if any model hinted it coming to La, not if he thought it would hit LA- smart tail!!!


LOL! There are some joksters on here so be prepared. I get my chops busted every now and then as well.
Quoting Jeff9641:
From NWS office in Tampa. Mathew?

FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...LATEST GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOW A
STRONG CLOSED MID LVL LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
GETS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGER FIELD OF
MOISTURE WITH GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AND THE EASTERN GOMEX.


Hey Morning jeff9641 been awhile, sure is looking like we are going to have to watch the gulf for a storm. 55.19 inches of rain so far this year.
Quoting severstorm:

Hey Morning jeff9641 been awhile, sure is looking like we are going to have to watch the gulf for a storm. 55.19 inches of rain so far this year.


Hey bud! it has been awhile I'm at 48" for the year but it has been very dry of late. Inregards to 95L we will have to watch this closely as this future track will favor the eastern gulf.
New Blog
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL! There are some joksters on here so be prepared. I get my chops busted every now and then as well.


If west Florida has to watch it, I see that 95L, (when it becomes a tropical storm/hurricane) will have such a wind field as to affect eastern side of the peninsula as well.
New Blog
2567. tacoman
i sure hope fla gets it because we cant handle another katrina...
Quoting FLdewey:
I need to finish installing equipment on the new chase vehicle... procrastinating always bites me in the


"Why put off until tomorrow what you can put off till day after tomorrow just as well"?

...Mark Twain
Quoting tacoman:
i sure hope fla gets it because we cant handle another katrina...


lol .
Tropical Wunderblog Rhyme Of The Day


Julia is gone without a trace,
But Lisa forms to take her place,
Igor still churning way out in the sea,
While on the Gulf Coast folks are ready,
All the models are saying be warned,
You will be hit by a powerful storm,
It seems humor has returned and doing well,
Just in time for 95L,
Get ready for 'Casting of all types, be it west, east, or wish,
But one things for sure it wont be a fish,
The blog seems to have calmed down of late,
But if 95L is upgraded just wait,
Because the Carrabean waters are hot and ripe,
For a major to form the conditions are right,
If you think this place has been bad so far,
Just wait till we have a major in our backyard.
I feel embarassed by asking this but the models are now showing a Yucatan hit?

Ok, so, overall Florida is more at risk but the Yucatan is also at risk?

Geez, I feel like an elementary student! lol
like this NEW BLOG!!!
Odds favor a landfall somewhere between Mobile/Florida. However, this is over a week away.

So start making some preparations.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
It's really just a disaster waiting to happen IMO
....my area(sarasota county)has never in recorded history had a major make landfall here!!!,if it did,peopl thought charley messed stuff up,the people here have no clue!!!
Quoting xcool:


ECMWF JUST LIKE CMC


Really??

0z CMC had landfall near Grand Isle/NOLA to MS.

0z ECMWF looks more like FL Panhandle or Big Bend.

What's the thinking there....trough not strong enough to kick NE?

I still say that there's enough influence from the westerlies, plus that cut-off low over the mid MS Valley, to kick this storm into at least FL Big Bend to Tampa.

I just don't see a SELA/NOLA direct hit in the cards here.


Anthony
can you send me a link to bob's video?
Radio CBC.ca

Road washouts, bridges and causeway at Sunnyside lost ie water and sewer gone. Sounds like the provence is in for some rough times. 20 cm rain so far at St Johns.
According to the NWS, it's impossible for a low to cut-off in this pattern which is unfolding in the East. So a deep trough embedded within the westerlies is more then likely.:)

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Chaos in Newfoundland:
86 mph wind gusts on shore
80 mph sustained offshore
39 ft. seas just south of the island
States of emergency declared.
Video of floodwaters
Live radio broadcast (Program Name: Q-Newfoundland)
Currently interviewing someone on Random Island saying: "Nothing's ever been seen like this before. There's widespread devastation here--it's undescribable."

WOW - that Video of the Barn getting washed away, and the way the road was just caving in around 1:10...that was some fast moving water

looks like they're in for some nasty damage.....so the poor Newfies got it from both Earl and Igor

thx for posting those links

so is it safe to leave the closet now that the storm is not coming to FL? it's kind of hot under this mattress but don't want to take a chance, checking smart phone thanks.
2582. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
931 am EDT Monday Jul 22 2013


Synopsis...
a trough of low pressure will linger just inland from the coast
today through Tuesday. A cold front will slowly push through
Wednesday and Wednesday night...becoming stationary just to the
south Thursday into the weekend.




&&


Near term /today/...
as of 930 am Monday...no sig changes needed to ongoing forecast for
am update...just tweaked grids based on latest trends. Models in
close agreement and used a consensus blend. Vorticity center just off
the South Carolina coast early this morning will track northeast
through the day...staying just off the coast. At the same time the
surface trough will continue from just west of the coastal plain.
Forecast soundings and time sections show deep moisture in place
over the area. Will keep likely probability of precipitation along the coastal plain and
50 percent elsewhere. An isolated strong thunderstorm with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out today...but the main threat still looks like
locally heavy rainfall with precipitable water values over 2 inches. High temperatures
again expected in the middle to upper 80s today.


&&


Short term /tonight/...
as of 4 am Monday...will continue daytime probability of precipitation into early evening
and gradually decrease through the overnight with loss of daytime
heating. Continued warm and muggy with lows in the middle to upper
70s.


&&


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
as of 4 am Monday...used a blend of the 00z GFS and 12z European model (ecmwf) for
forecast features as these models were in generally good agreement
and meshed up well with HPC forecast guidance. Major forecast
feature is an upper trough over the Great Lakes that will gradient dig
south Tuesday and persist over the eastern Continental U.S. Through the long
term...bringing rain chances through the period...although don't
expect prolonged periods of widespread rain. Kept rain chances in
the chance range below 50 probability of precipitation through the period. The big change
to forecast grids was to bring the front that moves into the area
on Wednesday south of the area Wednesday night. This was supported by both the
00z GFS and 12z European model (ecmwf) and reflected in HPC forecast grids. This
kept the area in NE to easterly flow Thursday through Friday night
before becoming southerly on Sat. Looking at the new 00z European model (ecmwf) it
does not bring the front as far south and resumes southerly flow
sooner and develops a coastal low that moves across the area on
Friday. Given the fluctuating forecasts do not have a high degree
of confidence in the later part of the forecast on the details. In
general though the likely trend is for a typical diurnal pop
pattern with showers and thunderstorms developing inland along the
sea breeze during the day and a better chance of showers and an
isolated thunderstorm along the coast overnight and early morning.
Organized severe weather is not expected as shear will be
minimal...though with any pulse storm an isolated strong to severe
wind gust is possible. With overall weak steering flow...will have
local heavy rainfall potential especially if cells train over the
same area. Followed a blend of GFS MOS and HPC guidance on
temperatures which will be a little above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday and more seasonal the remainder of the period.