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Igor pounding Newfoundland; dangerous 95L forms; 3rd hottest August for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010

Hurricane Igor is tenaciously hanging on as a Category 1 hurricane, and is causing trouble in Newfoundland, Canada. Winds at Sagona Island, over 100 miles to the northwest of Igor's center, were sustained at 68 mph, gusting to 86, this morning, and were 56 mph, gusting to 84, at St. Pierre. Offshore, at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, winds peaked at 56 mph and significant wave heights hit 39 feet as the center of Igor passed by. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns, where winds are already at 29 mph, gusting to 43 mph. Weather radar out of St. Johns is estimating rainfall amounts of up to 1/2 inch per hour from Igor.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 20, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%.

The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa forms
Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of this exceptionally active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, is now churning over the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is currently in an environment of low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, which is expected to continue through Thursday. Sea Surface Temperatures are a little cool, just 27°C, and there is some dry air to the north which may slow down development. Lisa is not likely to intensify into a hurricane, which would break our string of three straight major hurricanes that have developed (Igor, Julia, and Karl.) By Thursday, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa for the remainder of the week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Typhoon Fanapi deluges China
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in mainland China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong Monday morning as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, dumping the heaviest rains seen in a century to the southern Guangdong Province of China, according to the provincial weather bureau. Rainfall amounts of 550 mm (21.6") were recorded in the hardest-hit Shuangyao Township in Yangchun City. Thousands of people are stranded due to washed out roads and bridges in the region. In Taiwan, where Fanapi struck as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds on Sunday, the damage total is estimated at $210 million. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 1400 mm (4.6 feet) to mountainous regions in the interior. Taipei 101, the second tallest building in the world with more than 100 stories, reportedly swayed some 15 cm in Fanapi's winds.

Georgette soaks Baja
Tropical Storm Georgette has formed in the Eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Baja California. Georgette is just the seventh named storm of a near-record quiet season, and the first storm in the Eastern Pacific since Hurricane Frank died on August 28. Georgette's main threat is heavy rain, as the storm is expected to make landfall over Baja California later today and rapidly weaken into a tropical depression by Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

Third warmest August on record for the globe, and 2nd warmest summer, says NOAA
August 2010 was the globe's third warmest August on record, behind 1998 and 2009, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August 2010 the seventh warmest August on record. Both NOAA and NASA rated the year-to-date period, January - August, as the warmest such period on record. August 2010 global ocean temperatures were the sixth warmest on record, land temperatures were the second warmest on record, Northern Hemisphere temperatures the warmest on record, and global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere the warmest on record (Remote Sensing Systems data) or 2nd warmest on record (University of Alabama Huntsville data.)

The summer of 2010 was the second warmest summer on record, behind 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and the 4th warmest summer on record according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It was the warmest summer on record over land areas, and fifth warmest for ocean areas, according to NOAA.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from August 2010.


Figure 3. Departure of surface temperature from average for August, 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

La Niña intensifies and approaches the "strong" category
The equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean is nearing strong La Niña conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", dropped to 1.5 - 1.6°C below average during the first two weeks of September, according to NOAA. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology put this number at 1.3°C below average (as of September 19.) Moderate La Niña conditions are defined as occurring when this number is 1.0°C - 1.5°C below average. Temperatures colder than 1.5°C below average would qualify as strong La Niña conditions. NOAA is maintaining its La Niña advisory, and expects La Niña conditions to last through the coming spring.

Both El Niño and La Niña events have major impacts on regional and global weather patterns. For the next month, we can expect La Niña to bring cloudier and wetter than average conditions to the Caribbean, but weather patterns over North America should not see much impact. Globally, La Niña conditions tend to cause a net cooling of surface temperatures. Thus, while the past twelve month period has been the warmest globally since record keeping began in 1880, the calendar year of 2010 may end up just shy of being classified as the warmest year ever.

August 2010 Arctic sea ice extent 2nd lowest on record
Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in August 2010 was the second lowest in the 31-year satellite record behind 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Strong high pressure centered north of Alaska, combined with low pressure over Siberia (the Arctic Dipole Anomaly), acted together to produce a strong flow of warm air into the Arctic, causing the near-record melting. Ice volume in August was the lowest on record for August, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Arctic sea ice is currently near its annual minimum, and 2010 will end up having the second or third lowest extent on record, behind 2007 (and possibly 2008.) The fabled Northwest Passage through the normally ice-choked waters of Canada, as well as the Northeast Passage along the coast of northern Russia, remained open for ice-free navigation as of September 21, and have been ice-free for a month. This is the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history--that both passages have melted open. Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497, and 2005 was the first year either of these passages reported ice-free conditions; 2008 was the first year both passages melted free.

"Hurricane Haven" airing this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
More pictures of distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport RI # 4
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9
distant Hurricane Igor surf at Newport, RI # 9

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl:
Cosmic: I have read this blog for so long, and so much that I feel like I know most of you. Anyway it upsets me when new people come on here and are just rude for no reason.
What? Who was I rude to? If it was you or to anyone I apologize. It's just a misunderstanding. Perhaps a lil' joke taken the wrong way. These things can happen as different people read the same words differently..
.
.
If you'd like I can direct you back to 5 posts, today alone, where someone announced that they were posting for the first time, and in 5 of the 5 cases I was the first one to welcome them. In 4 of the 5 the only one.
2502. xcool
to moon
2503. will40
Quoting xcool:
to moon



lolol xcool
Quoting StormJunkie:
21 years ago...About an hour ago...On my Mom's birthday...I brought her a muffin with a candle in it. Huddled in the hall way...Well actually, right about now we were likely walking out in to the clear eyewall. Dad was working for the town so it was just me and her at the house. Scary night, but I wouldn't trade the experience. Happy Birthday Mom.


That is poetry. Thanks for sharing your story.
Quoting Want2learn:
Thats awesome, thnx


NP, what happened to Igor and Julia's remnants is a good example of two scenarios of what happens when a remnant low interacts with an upper trough. Where the remnant low ends up in relation to the upper trough has huge implications.

Julia's remnant is caught in the west side of an upper trough, and the west side is opposite of the east side, there is upper convergence on that side, which weakens the surface low. That's why Julia's remnant was not impressive.

Now, Igor, that ended up on the east side of an upper trough. Upper air divergence on the east side of an upper trough, well you can see Igor's remnant tonight is so much more impressive than Julia's.
Evening CE, and thanks...And you too bcy.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
The model runs of 95L sort of remind me of the tracks of storms like Charley 2004, Ernesto 2006, Wilma 2005, a storm born in the Caribbean that then has potential to affect up and down the eastern seabaord upon turning north. Except for Floridians, such storms tend to not be that bad for folks north of Florida because its an upper trough that draws the storm northward from the Caribbean.

The upper trough tends to push the storm northeastward, or parallel and offshore of the eastern US coast. The only time such a storm would be bad would be if the upper trough highly amplifies into an upper low, which would change the storm track from northeastward to more northward or northwestward. Does anyone know if the models are hinting at the upper trough driving 95L north amplifying into an upper low?


Hazel, 1954.
Latest GFS WOW! 984mb E of Miami and still 989 W of NYC. Not much weakening as it hits NYC. Would funnel a lot of water into Hudson Bay. Of course this scenario very unlikely, but possible.
2509. will40
Quoting natrwalkn:


Hazel, 1954.
Hazel came in at an angle that took her well in shore
2510. crunja
RE: Third warmest August on record for the globe



Ice Age Now recants:

iceagenow.com



||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||



~Freak cold snap in Britain

18 Sep10 - "The freak cold snap has come weeks early, after the coldest August for 17 years. Temperatures could plummet to -1C (30F) at night – 12 degrees C below the seasonal average."




~Unprecedented Warming in US and Russia ... Not

During July, Moscow was burning up, as well as a major portion of the U.S. - Clear evidence of what the last 3 decades of massive CO2 emissions have done to the climate.
Oooops, we bad - OMG, the above image (see web page) isn't for July 2010, it's for July 1936! On the right is the temperature anomaly map for July 2010.



~New Zealand - Heaviest snow in decades - 19 Sep 10

NZ stadium collapses under heavy snowfall
"We've never had a snow fall this big before, in our history" "Farmers have been particularly badly hit."


18 Sep 10 - Heavy snow collapses the roof on the main netball court at the world-class Stadium Southland in Invercargill.
Gang, I'm away at college right now, if I hurricane were to hit us late next week, I wouldn't ride it out here, instead I would go home, alongside my family and ride it out over there. Just saying.......who would blame me, right?
2512. JRRP

TD south Haiti
Quoting will40:


Emerald Isle


I've never been through a tornado before, the only real bad tornado in Raleigh my parents told me about was some tornado that hit the local K-mart in the 1980s, but I didn't live in Raleigh at the time.

Oh yeah, there were some suspect tornadoes that uprooted trees in the area during Fran in 1996, but know one knows for sure.

Hope good old 'nesto did not ruin your roof to bad.
Cosmic no no not you lol! I am talking about new people coming on and being rude to people who have been on the blog for years (Not talking about myself)I am sorry that I did not word that correctly.
Quoting will40:
Hazel came in at an angle that took her well in shore


Yes, and developed a little farther East and turned north before 95L is expected to. Still, contrary to what one would normally expect, the worst cane to affect NC came from the Carribean.
2516. will40
And Hazel was moving 30mph when she hit which pushed her further inland
2517. will40
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I've never been through a tornado before, the only real bad tornado in Raleigh my parents told me about was some tornado that hit the local K-mart in the 1980s, but I didn't live in Raleigh at the time.

Oh yeah, there were some suspect tornadoes that uprooted trees in the area during Fran in 1996, but know one knows for sure.

Hope good old 'nesto did not ruin your roof to bad.


yup had to replace it. but still could have been a lot worse
You're not funny, XCool! You are just hating cause it doesn't take 95L to Nola.
long range CMC = pensacola
Quoting will40:
Hazel came in at an angle that took her well in shore


Wait a minute, are y'all saying 95L could be like Hazel in track? I though Hazel came from the Atlantic Ocean like a CV storm, not the Caribbean.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

Okay, yeah, Hazel did come from the Caribbean. Huh! I add to my knowledge of hurricane history every day. Except for some landmark storms, my Atlantic hurricane history knowledge is sharpest right now between 1990 to present, I am now just starting to study now before 1990.
2521. xcool
MiamiThreater you poor baby do what a cookie
Right..... Pensacola, :(.
2524. will40


Hazel track
2525. xcool


Quoting MiamiThreater:
Right..... Pensacola, :(.


yuck!! that's an hour east of me:0
Quoting MiamiThreater:
Gang, I'm away at college right now, if I hurricane were to hit us late next week, I wouldn't ride it out here, instead I would go home, alongside my family and ride it out over there. Just saying.......who would blame me, right?
Unless family is on coast or the Keys or something.
I did remark in an earlier post that most storm like 95L, that is if 95L materializes, tend to not be bad for folks north of Florida, except in rare cases where the steering upper trough amplifies into an upper low, which bends the storm track from NE to NW. That's what looked like what happened with Hazel 1954.

You can see Igor turned from NE to NW today as the upper trough amplified into an upper low. Is that what models do with 95L, amplify the steering upper trough into an upper low?
Quoting Grecojdw:


yuck!! that's an hour east of me:0


Hour and a quarter west of me.

OK, that's two of us that don't like it. Toss that run out and try again please.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Wait a minute, are y'all saying 95L could be like Hazel in track? I though Hazel came from the Atlantic Ocean like a CV storm, not the Caribbean.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

Okay, yeah, Hazel did come from the Caribbean. Huh! I add to my knowledge of hurricane history every day. Except for some landmark storms, my Atlantic hurricane history knowledge is sharpest right now between 1990 to present, I am now just starting to study now before 1990.


No, seriously doubt a Hazel-type track.
2531. xcool
Grecojdw locations
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Unless family is on coast or the Keys or something.


They're in mainland SF.
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Hour and a quarter west of me.

OK, that's two of us that don't like it. Toss that run out and try again please.


woops...how embarassing..Its really late and my internal directional compass is waaayyyy off. I meant an hour to the West of me. Even worse:0
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening CE, and thanks...And you too bcy.


Welcome and thanks for your story. Weather binds us all together. g'night.
Quoting xcool:
Grecojdw locations


I am 6 miles to the West of Destin, Florida. In Fort Walton Beach, Florida.
Quoting natrwalkn:


No, seriously doubt a Hazel-type track.


Didn't think so either. What about a Donna type track?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Donna came in from the Bahamas. But, could 95L imitate somthing like Donna from Florida, northward?
2537. xcool
oh cool
Quoting Grecojdw:


I am 6 miles to the West of Destin, Florida. In Fort Walton Beach, Florida.


Well, if you're an hour from P'cola over there, either I haven't driven it in a while, or we have very different driving styles. lol

Anyway, Panama City here, so I still find P'cola to be an undesirable solution. ;-)
2539. will40
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Didn't think so either. What about a Donna type track?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Donna came in from the Bahamas. But, could 95L imitate somthing like Donna from Florida, northward?


yea Donna looks closer to GFS run
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Didn't think so either. What about a Donna type track?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna

Donna came in from the Bahamas. But, could 95L imitate somthing like Donna from Florida, northward?


Difficult to speculate on a storm that hasn't even formed yet, but given how far west it will be if and when it develops, a Charley or Wilma-type track seems more likely as many people have been saying on here tonight. Worst case for NC would be a Charley-type situation where the storm reemerges off the Florida East coast and rapidly strngthens ove rthe Gulf Stream before reaching NC. Could happen but I wouldn't be too worried about it right now.
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Well, if you're an hour from P'cola over there, either I haven't driven it in a while, or we have very different driving styles. lol

Anyway, Panama City here, so I still find P'cola to be an undesirable solution. ;-)


Pensacola is still closer of a drive despite 98 being 4 lane between PC and FWB. PC beach is an hours drive from Fort Walton, but to drive into PC its over an hour. Though, they have raised the speed limit to above the standard 55mph between PC and FWB. But I guess if you want to get accurate. FWB is roughly 40 miles East of Pensacola and 66 miles West of Panama City. In traffic, P'Cola is an hour away.
(sigh) I wish people on here would take me seriously and not a joke or troll. Thank you so much scottsvb for ruining my reputation on here.
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Hour and a quarter west of me.

OK, that's two of us that don't like it. Toss that run out and try again please.


LOL, models runs are everywhere. Looks like models take this thing northward, the west-case scenario being the Florida panhandle (just west of Pensacola), the east-case scenario being across peninsular Florida and then up the east coast.

Well at least this isn't the 1900s. They thought the Galveston hurricane in 1900 would go up the east coast after Cuba, when in fact it went to Texas! But even since the 1900s, we can't tell where these storms will be a week from now. We've gotten better, but not best.
95L(pre Mathew) could be a history maker. I hope it takes that trough and zips out to sea. Probably least populated coast at risk from E of Apalachicola to N of Tampa. Storms almost never hit that area and I don't wish this one their way.
Quoting reedzone:
(sigh) I wish people on here would take me seriously and not a joke or troll. Thank you so much scottsvb for ruining my reputation on here.


Why? You've always been serious on this forum for as long as I have been on. (I actually have been on since 05 but for some reason my original handle was canceled for some reason, never resolved the issue but I know it wasn't a PB.
Quoting Grecojdw:


...


Haven't been across that way in a while on 98. From north of town it was a pretty quick shot across, speed limits loosely interpreted. So all in all, I don't think 1:15 is something I should readily admit to. ;-)

Sure did take a while to get over that way after Ivan though, didn't it? That was crazy. Come to think of it, Opal was a trip too. Hope the shored up roadway holds up next time around. (Which I hope isn't soon)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, models runs are everywhere. Looks like models take this thing northward, the west-case scenario being the Florida panhandle (just west of Pensacola), the east-case scenario being across peninsular Florida and then up the east coast.

Well at least this isn't the 1900s. They thought the Galveston hurricane in 1900 would go up the east coast after Cuba, when in fact it went to Texas! But even since the 1900s, we can't tell where these storms will be a week from now. We've gotten better, but not best.


That would have been scary. To think you were going through a regular storm only to fight for your life. For a modern example, I mentioned earlier about my worse fear was for a Katrina like storm surge situation to happen to Destin-FWB. Opal and Ivan wiped out a lot of the height from our barrier islands so I don;t know what a 30 or 40 ft wall of water would do now. Think about what it could of done in the 1900s.
2548. jonelu
The model ensembles dont look good from Florida. Supposed to be in KW Sun-Tue....lousy weather more than likely.
2549. JRRP
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Haven't been across that way in a while on 98. From north of town it was a pretty quick shot across, speed limits loosely interpreted. So all in all, I don't think 1:15 is something I should readily admit to. ;-)

Sure did take a while to get over that way after Ivan though, didn't it? That was crazy. Come to think of it, Opal was a trip too. Hope the shored up roadway holds up next time around. (Which I hope isn't soon)


Both Ivan and Opal broke Okaloosa Island into pieces between Destin and FWB. What would normally take no more than 8 or 9 minutes became a 45 minute drive just to get around to Destin. It was truly insane.
2501. I'll attest to that, Cosmic!

BTW, thanks for the warm welcome! Missed your greeting as I was at work when I posted.

No worries. I'm quite comfortable reading about people making fools of themselves without needing to jump in. I've found quite a bit of valuable information on this blog, and hope to contribute as I learn more about tropical weather.
Scott, plz post the TWO, thanks.
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Haven't been across that way in a while on 98. From north of town it was a pretty quick shot across, speed limits loosely interpreted. So all in all, I don't think 1:15 is something I should readily admit to. ;-)

Sure did take a while to get over that way after Ivan though, didn't it? That was crazy. Come to think of it, Opal was a trip too. Hope the shored up roadway holds up next time around. (Which I hope isn't soon)


Did you get distracted by the OJ simpson trial, I have heard that the OJ simpson trial took attention away from Opal while it was blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward the panhandle. Did Opal take you by surprise?

Story about Opal and OJ Simpson:
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=23421
Quoting Grecojdw:


Why? You've always been serious on this forum for as long as I have been on. (I actually have been on since 05 but for some reason my original handle was canceled for some reason, never resolved the issue but I know it wasn't a PB.


I wasn't playing around or wishcasting when I said the pattern favored Alex to hit Northern Mexico, perhaps Southern Texas. If Earl didn't take that east jog after reaching 75W, it would have made landfall on Cape Hatteras, NC. Last year, I had my reasons on predicting Bill to clip New England, in which it did. Danny, I was off on the characteristic, but the storm did move up the East Coast as a Noreaster. Ida did in fact become close to a Perfect Storm as it merged with the Hybrid low, and 96E from the Pacific. I have my reasons, back my statements up as much as I can. Yet, I still get called the biggest wishcaster on here, some have said I am worse then JFV. If I am that bad, why have I never gotten banned on here? I know my limits, and if I go far, I know to stop. Though it'll never stop me from making predictions, opinions on where the storms could go. Alot of people look up to me here in my town when it comes to the weather. When they had questions, they came to me and I gave them my opinions. I remember (lol) drawing the track of Rita to the borderline of LA/TX. It's a passion I've had for 10 years, still going, as well as music. I learn more everyday. :)
2555. flsky
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't playing around or wishcasting when I said the pattern favored Alex to hit Northern Mexico, perhaps Southern Texas. If Earl didn't take that east jog after reaching 75W, it would have made landfall on Cape Hatteras, NC. Last year, I had my reasons on predicting Bill to clip New England, in which it did. Danny, I was off on the characteristic, but the storm did move up the East Coast as a Noreaster. Ida did in fact become close to a Perfect Storm as it merged with the Hybrid low, and 96E from the Pacific. I have my reasons, back my statements up as much as I can. Yet, I still get called the biggest wishcaster on here, some have said I am worse then JFV. If I am that bad, why have I never gotten banned on here? I know my limits, and if I go far, I know to stop. Though it'll never stop me from making predictions, opinions on where the storms could go. Alot of people look up to me here in my town when it comes to the weather. When they had questions, they came to me and I gave them my opinions. I remember (lol) drawing the track of Rita to the borderline of LA/TX. It's a passion I've had for 10 years, still going, as well as music. I learn more everyday. :)

You're freaking out, kid. Take a breath.
Reedzone is probably the biggest guesscaster in Wunderground
2557. JRRP
Reed is cool because his comments are rich in content.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did you get distracted by the OJ simpson trial, I have heard that the OJ simpson trial took attention away from Opal while it was blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward the panhandle. Did Opal take you by surprise?

Story about Opal and OJ Simpson:
http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=23421


Heck yeah it did. It literally went from a 3 to either a strong 4 or a 5. It became a flee for your lives type situation where a 150k at least in my area fleeing from the storm down one road because everybody else from the other counties were using their own evac routes. We could leave it got too late. By the time we were going to leave, the leading edge of the storm came in. There were people stranded along the evac route highway 85 right near Eglin AFB right when the storm started. The military actually began getting people out of their cars and taking then to the base when that chaos occurred. It was a crazy situation indeed:0
Quoting Grecojdw:


Heck yeah it did. It literally went from a 3 to either a strong 4 or a 5. It became a flee for your lives type situation where a 150k at least in my area fleeing from the storm down one road because everybody else from the other counties were using their own evac routes. We could leave it got too late. By the time we were going to leave, the leading edge of the storm came in. There were people stranded along the evac route highway 85 right near Eglin AFB right when the storm started. The military actually began getting people out of their cars and taking then to the base when that chaos occurred. It was a crazy situation indeed:0


Man, I am glad you made it out of there. I'd never wish for anyone to have to panic evacuate.

By the way, was it like, "hmmm OJ Simpson. Two hours later: what the heck, Opal?! Oh my gosh, I gotta get out of here. Oh no, traffic!"
btw.. reedzone NEVER said N Mexico.. he always said Louisiana or NE Tx until just before landfall he changed it to SE Tx near the Mexico boarder and threw a FIT at people telling him to stop wishcasting it into Texas. Well it ended up 150 miles south of the boarder!
2562. flsky
Link
2am update
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't playing around or wishcasting when I said the pattern favored Alex to hit Northern Mexico, perhaps Southern Texas. If Earl didn't take that east jog after reaching 75W, it would have made landfall on Cape Hatteras, NC. Last year, I had my reasons on predicting Bill to clip New England, in which it did. Danny, I was off on the characteristic, but the storm did move up the East Coast as a Noreaster. Ida did in fact become close to a Perfect Storm as it merged with the Hybrid low, and 96E from the Pacific. I have my reasons, back my statements up as much as I can. Yet, I still get called the biggest wishcaster on here, some have said I am worse then JFV. If I am that bad, why have I never gotten banned on here? I know my limits, and if I go far, I know to stop. Though it'll never stop me from making predictions, opinions on where the storms could go. Alot of people look up to me here in my town when it comes to the weather. When they had questions, they came to me and I gave them my opinions. I remember (lol) drawing the track of Rita to the borderline of LA/TX. It's a passion I've had for 10 years, still going, as well as music. I learn more everyday. :)


Don't worry dude a lot of people like to read their typing on this forum. Wow if your a guess caster, I can't imagine all of those people that were on earlier in the evening already making exact pinpoint landfalls for future Matthew way before cyclone-genesis. It was crazy reading all those statements. Its like they really want those storms to hit them. I just like reading peoples personal experience and learning the science of TC's, but many really are making these outrages guesses of exact storm track because they really want a storm to hit them no matter how strong the storm is. Your not one of them, but it is a shame that many do that. I wish I could mention names (I really want to mention names), but I'm not going to open up that can of worms.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Man, I am glad you made it out of there. I'd never wish for anyone to have to panic evacuate.

By the way, was it like, "hmmm OJ Simpson. Two hours later: what the heck, Opal?! Oh my gosh, I gotta get out of here. Oh no, traffic!"


It was literally 11pm, "ehh...the storms not going to be that bad..will make our usual preparations for a hurricane while we watch the OJ coverage," to 7am "whaaattttt!!!! 150mph...half a day to landfall...lets go lets go lets go." RI was insane with that storm and the authorities at the time did not head evacuation calls very early. I think they have learned their lessons now.
Quoting flsky:
Link
2am update


2 AM update shows 95L haulin' westward, its already at the longitudes of Puerto Rico. Satellite imagery concurs.
2566. xcool


240 00z CMC Global Forecast Mode head back to la
2567. flsky
2am TWO
Link
Quoting xcool:


240 00z CMC Global Forecast Mode head back to la


95L is really going back and forth right now. What a difference a few hours can make with those models huh...
Quoting Grecojdw:


It was literally 11pm, "ehh...the storms not going to be that bad..will make our usual preparations for a hurricane while we watch the OJ coverage," to 7am "whaaattttt!!!! 150mph...half a day to landfall...lets go lets go lets go." RI was insane with that storm and the authorities at the time did not head evacuation calls very early. I think they have learned their lessons now.


RI (rapid intensification) is so frustrating. So after Opal, do the officials now have to issue evacuation orders for something like a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane becuase of our lack of skill in foreseeing some RI events?
2570. leo305
Quoting hurricane23:


OoO
2571. xcool
yeah
Quoting Grecojdw:


95L is really going back and forth right now. What a difference a few hours can make with those models huh...


You say LA? Could the left shift be because 95L is haulin' west? Now the west case scenario is LA? What's the east case scneario now?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


RI (rapid intensification) is so frustrating. So after Opal, do the officials now have to issue evacuation orders for something like a strong tropical storm or cat. 1 hurricane becuase of our lack of skill in foreseeing some RI events?


There still pretty lax about just a Cat 1. Only the military, since we have three bases in our area, are pretty on to it about evacuating early. The local authorities don't budge until it enters the two realm. Though, when it comes to the barrier islands, I think with a cat 1 they close the bridges when winds reach 55mph so you can't get on the barrier island but they still don't mandatory evac the island until a cat 2 typically. But we really hadn't had anything bad hear since Ivan, so with Katrina as a model, I don't know how strict it is now.
144hr 00z CMC has it big and right over Cancun and moving N. I think Euro needs to be watched. Once it locks on it is consistent and rarely off too much.
2575. palmpt
Quoting reedzone:
(sigh) I wish people on here would take me seriously and not a joke or troll. Thank you so much scottsvb for ruining my reputation on here.


Reedzone... Your reputation is good... Let it go. You have many friends here. And we appreciate your point of view.
Good night all

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


You say LA? Could the left shift be because 95L is haulin' west? Now the west case scenario is LA? What's the east case scneario now?


The model he posted shifted to Louisiana. That could be due to the fast movement and something with the front/weakness/trough trajectory change. But as we have seen before, those bad boys swing the other direction when just a slight variation of atmospheric conditions come into fruition.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
144hr 00z CMC has it big and right over Cancun and moving N. I think Euro needs to be watched. Once it locks on it is consistent and rarely off too much.


What about after Cancun?

By the way early this afternoon, when I saw 95L popped up like 92L (pre-Karl) did, I was like, "man, another Karl? Another storm for Mexico after Alex, TD2, and Karl?!" Then I saw the models hooking it northward. S Mexico doesn't need another storm, but unfortunately a turn north comes at the sacrifice for others. But S Mexico need a break! It would be best for 95L to not form at all.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What? Who was I rude to? If it was you or to anyone I apologize. It's just a misunderstanding. Perhaps a lil' joke taken the wrong way. These things can happen as different people read the same words differently..
.
.
If you'd like I can direct you back to 5 posts, today alone, where someone announced that they were posting for the first time, and in 5 of the 5 cases I was the first one to welcome them. In 4 of the 5 the only one.


I haven't seen you being rude to anyone, really...at least not to anyone that didn't deserve it, but I can see what he's saying, in general; I've been here for a while and nothing irks me more than a newb talking down to someone in here...

How is everyonwe by the way?
Quoting Grecojdw:


The model he posted shifted to Louisiana. That could be due to the fast movement and something with the front/weakness/trough trajectory change. But as we have seen before, those bad boys swing the other direction when just a slight variation of atmospheric conditions come into fruition.


one model does not signify a pattern shift, OK? This will only end up being a SF trheater and that's it, -__-.
Quoting Floodman:


I haven't seen you being rude to anyone, really...at least not to anyone that didn't deserve it, but I can see what he's saying, in general; I've been here for a while and nothing irks me more than a newb talking down to someone in here...

How is everyonwe by the way?


Good, just waiting for Scott to start posting the ECM images, ANY-DAY NOW!!!!!! Que haces despierto, viejo, no puedes dormir o que?
Just a thought if 95L ends up in the Gulf of Mexico. The only thing I have taken away from CNN's Chad Myers (me coughing sarcastically) is when he said "once its in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to hit something"

I thought it really funny when a storm pops up, CNN plays that clip "once its in the Gulf of Mexico, it has to hit something. CNN, your hurricane headquarters."

More like "what Chad Myers blow up! CNN, your hurricane headquarters."
Quoting MiamiThreater:


one model does not signify a pattern shift, OK? This will only end up being a SF trheater and that's it, -__-.


Either your being funny or a Florida wishcaster. I am not quite sure yet. I am actually repeating what Dr.M said on his hurricane haven program so you can debate that if you want:0
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Irene_1999_track.png

Hurricane Irene(1999) ??????
Quoting Grecojdw:


Either your being funny or a Florida wishcaster. I am not quite sure yet. I am actually repeating what Dr.M said on his hurricane haven program so you can debate that if you want:0


:0
Damn, you're up late.
Quoting Grecojdw:


Either your being funny or a Florida wishcaster. I am not quite sure yet. I am actually repeating what Dr.M said on his hurricane haven program so you can debate that if you want:0


Dude, this is JFV. He wants this storm. Ignore the troll.
Where's Ike when we need him, :(.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dude, this is JFV. He wants this storm. Ignore the troll.


Hi, Kory!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Did you get distracted by the OJ simpson trial, I have heard that the OJ simpson trial took attention away from Opal while it was blowing up in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward the panhandle.


I was at work while it was brewing in the BOC. Info was pretty sketchy, since we were in Port Fourchon and TV reception wasn't all that great.

After we evacuated the rig and got everyone ashore and safe, I was waiting for crew change the next morning as scheduled. About mid afternoon, the office called and said for the two of us that lived in FL didn't need to wait for relief - just get going. When we left, we figured we had plenty of time to get home.

The other guy was my deckhand, he was following me across I-10. About Mobile, he started flashing his headlights. I pulled over thinking he had something wrong with his truck. He came running up and asked if I had heard the radio. Viva la CD player, I hadn't. That was when I found out that Opal was a speed demon.

I got in around 4am and hoped that my wife and girls were at our apartment. We were in the process of moving at the time and I had no way of being really sure where they would be. Worst part is, they had sent me the paperwork for the lease on the new home, and I didn't even really know where it was. I was gone for 4 weeks outta 6, I didn't care where we lived, as long as they liked it. lol

I woke my wife up, she thought I was nuts. Told her we need to start looking at getting in one house or the other and be ready, the storm would be there that afternoon. After she realized I was serious, and we listened to John Hope tell us we were the apparent target, we bailed outta the apartment and headed out.

By the time we started getting people and pets packed up to go, I had been up for the better part of 48 hours. 14 of those hours I was driving the boat and doing the evac, then the 9 hour drive home to begin another evac.

So yeah, Opal had a couple surprises for us - But O.J. wasn't part of the equation.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dude, this is JFV. He wants this storm. Ignore the troll.



aargghhhhh##$^88^%^$.......I fell for it again...again.!!! Uhhhhhh...I am going to bed. Have a great late shift you guys.:)
I'm scared to look at the latest ECM run, Kori, what does it show, :). Since Guillet refuses to post it.
2593. jonelu
Quoting HurricaneRoman:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Irene_1999_track.png

Hurricane Irene(1999) ??????

I remember Irene....Never in my life have I ever been so unprepared for a storm. It actually caught us off guard.....I was putting down shutters in horizontal rain. One of them actually ripped off and blew down the block.
Calm down! With all the SAL in the carribean,
it could be tough for a storm to last very long!

Pun intended!
Post 2590,

That must have been tough, drivin' all the way home, and then having to evacuate your family after that. Phew, thanks for sharing that story.
Quoting swflurker:
Calm down! With all the SAL in the carribean,
it could be tough for a storm to last very long!

Pun intended!


I just looked, the ECM is locked onto this beast. I'm gonna start looking over my supplies tomorrow. If you live down here as well, I'd strongly recommend you do the same. Mutual consensus between the GFS and ECM si big trouble (in case you ever knew this(.
Quoting katadman:
Damn, you're up late.


Yeah, making notes on a certain someone's files...
Quoting swflurker:
Calm down! With all the SAL in the carribean,
it could be tough for a storm to last very long!

Pun intended!


There is no Sal is the carib, much let alone will it kill it off. Geeze, couldn't you find a btter fabricated lie then that, that was pretty cheesy, man.
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, making notes on a certain someone's files...


De quien hablas, Roberto?
Guessin your in Miami. I over here in Naples. Lock and load!
Quoting MiamiThreater:


I just looked, the ECM is locked onto this beast. I'm gonna start looking over my supplies tomorrow. If you live down here as well, I'd strongly recommend you do the same. Mutual consensus between the GFS and ECM si big trouble (in case you ever knew this(.
I donlt know who's worse: Jason with his 12 handles or JFV...

Janiel, why dolt you go haunt Bastardi or something, would you?
Night, all! We'll see what tomorrow brings, BB in the am, :).
Last line? Pan intended. JK?
Quoting MiamiThreater:


There is no Sal is the carib, much let alone will it kill it off. Geeze, couldn't you find a btter fabricated lie then that, that was pretty cheesy, man.
Quoting MiamiThreater:
Night, all! We'll see what tomorrow brings, BB in the am, :).


Thanks for the warning...I may ignore you pre-emptively
Quoting swflurker:
Guessin your in Miami. I over here in Naples. Lock and load!


Correct, we need to be ready, man, regardless.
2606. xcool
,ECMWF,lolol
Quoting swflurker:
Last line? Pan intended. JK?


Missed that, my apologies.
Quoting Floodman:
I donlt know who's worse: Jason with his 12 handles or JFV...

Janiel, why dolt you go haunt Bastardi or something, would you?


inb4 Spanish insults from JFV
Quoting xcool:
,ECMWF,lolol


What's so funny about it, lol! You're laughing cause it's not taking up to Nola? It's a very good possibility, it's been showing this for several runs now, X. For me down here, that's anything but funny, just saying.
Is Trev on?
2611. mbjjm
not buying the 0z euro for next friday

2612. xcool
MiamiThreater Don't-give-a beep about you .so stop talk to me.you aint ma dady or mom my friends.
0z ECMWF looks suspect. Refuses to develop it until around day five or six, and even then, takes it across central Cuba and away from Florida.

I'm no wishcaster, but that looks suspect especially with the return of the upward MJO into our area, which typically favors less troughing.
2614. xcool
KoritheMan you can wishcaster all you what.i dnot care.i never call no one wishcast
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan you can wishcaster all you what.i dnot care


Thanks. :)

But I'd rather not. The only kind of casting you'll ever see me doing is forecasting. That entails being objective. Restraining one's bias.
2617. mbjjm
run from Gfs for next Friday
Quoting KoritheMan:
0z ECMWF looks suspect. Refuses to develop it until around day five or six, and even then, takes it across central Cuba and away from Florida.

I'm no wishcaster, but that looks suspect especially with the return of the upward MJO into our area, which typically favors less troughing.

Hello, the large circle, depicting the system, is over Florida not over Cuba, what are you seeing?
2619. xcool
MiamiThreater soso and and.you learn how tooo respect people.
2620. mbjjm
Nogaps next Monday
2621. xcool
KoritheMan wishcaster all dayy iff you know what meaning ;)
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan you can wishcaster all you what.i dnot care.i never call no one wishcast



+10
Hey X!

Your better than that!

Avoid the trap!
T.C.F.A.
INV95/XX/XL
MARK
13.19N/66.33W
2626. xcool
i speak truth Don't hold back,
2627. xcool
KEEPEROFTHEGATE nice imagesss
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan wishcaster all dayy iff you know what meaning ;)


:)
Euro develops a weaker system this run+ good news. But path is same and speeded up.
The "John Hope rule" shows its viability once again. Back to bed for me. Zzzzzzzz.....
2631. mbjjm
Hwrf Monday,73 mph just off Cozumel Island.
weakening from 95mph after interracting the Coast of Nicargua

lol
2633. xcool
roby
2634. mbjjm
Gdfl has system moving further inland over Nicargua,second landfall near Belize City. keeps borderline tropical storm/hurricane strength

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The "John Hope rule" shows its viability once again. Back to bed for me. Zzzzzzzz.....


John Hope's definitely a good forecaster.
2636. mbjjm
Cmc 0z run next Monday

2637. mbjjm
Uk met this Saturday

2639. mbjjm
The models are wrong on timing.Way toooo sloooowww
Quoting CoopNTexas:
long range CMC = pensacola

more like mobile bay
2641. jonelu
Looks like convection is firing up again close to the low.
2643. jonelu
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

that run keeps it hovering off the coast of Nicaragua for 3 days...
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
Imho Mathew will reach hurricane status Friday evening in the western carib. It will then track north into the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall wednesday afternoon just west of due east on the southwest side of the northern edge of the mouth of the Ms. river, as a category 9 Hurricane on the Homer Simpson scale. Imho.. you can correct me if you feel i'm wrong. I can take it.


lulz we should liek, run for teh hills mirite lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keeper, as always, some nice graphics outta you. Good Stuff, makes it easy to viaualize what might develop next week.

Good Job!
2647. ackee
If 95L does not begin to move away from the south America coast dont think it will devlop ,until it reach SW carrb probaly continue WEST die over central America
2648. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI
AND SAT. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH FRI THEN WILL WEAKEN SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN U.S.. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN
THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT
APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SUN.

2649. zen427
morning
2650. scott39
Goodmorning 95L has been going 26mph for the last 6 hours according to tropical atlantic. If he doesnt slow down the trough will be missed. IMO
hopes rule is not as effective in the early part and late part of the hurricane season because the heat low is weaker over northern s. america moisture is really building up in the sw carib. most characters know this already
2652. scott39
95L already at 68W! trough-- not for at least 48 hours.
Morning everybody.

I notice some energy is poised just off the coast of Niguaraga / El Salvador again... wonder if that scenario with the Central America crossing storm later impacting somewhere in the GoM is more likely than we might have thought...

Quoting KoritheMan:


lulz we should liek, run for teh hills mirite lol


Yup..... but boss we ain't got narry a hill in south La.
good morning, folks. Just going to pop in very quickly and try to scan the maps without getting steamrolled by the blog family dynamics this morning.

Ike - a couple of those model images imply you should keep an eye to the South - not that you don't do that everyday of the season. :)

Still not seeing anything in the near outlook that might trouble VA...
2657. bird72
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.
2658. IKE
Lisa having issues...

2659. scott39
Quoting bird72:
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.
Why do you do that?
Well interesting radar link. Think you will see some rotation in rain bands forming N. of South America Curacao.Link
Quoting bird72:
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.


Heard that before and boom!!
2662. scott39
Ike when do you think 95L will slow down?
Quoting bird72:
Sorry, but 95l, just poof.


You do realize, your doing the same exact thing we all did with 92L, the system that became Karl.
2664. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike when do you think 95L will slow down?


Looks like about Monday, based off of the SHIPS.

.................................................

Birmingham,AL. extended....

..NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN UNTIL LATE NIGHT FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. GFS/EURO ARE PRETTY CLOSE
IN AGREEMENT...WITH THE EURO BEING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER IN
THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN ALABAMA. ALL AGREE THAT
MOISTURE WITH INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR TSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATING OUR FIRST FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH NOT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH INITIALLY AND WILL
MOST LIKELY STALL OUT. A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS THE C U.S. DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IF THIS
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE
PUSH TO CLEAR RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A REAL TASTE OF FALL. IF NOTHING ELSE...HOPEFULLY
WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO THE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You do realize, your doing the same exact thing we all did with 92L, the system that became Karl.
and Karl only became a ts before hitting land. this could die over Nicaragua or even the Yucatan.
2666. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Looks like about Monday, based off of the SHIPS.

.................................................

Birmingham,AL. extended....

..NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN UNTIL LATE NIGHT FRI INTO
EARLY SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. GFS/EURO ARE PRETTY CLOSE
IN AGREEMENT...WITH THE EURO BEING A TAD STRONGER AND FASTER IN
THE INITIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING IN ALABAMA. ALL AGREE THAT
MOISTURE WITH INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR TSTORM ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATING OUR FIRST FRONT
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH NOT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL PUSH INITIALLY AND WILL
MOST LIKELY STALL OUT. A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS THE C U.S. DIGS SEWD
ACROSS THE U.S. WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. IF THIS
SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE
PUSH TO CLEAR RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BRING A REAL TASTE OF FALL. IF NOTHING ELSE...HOPEFULLY
WE CAN SAY GOODBYE TO THE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
Dont you think 95L needs to gain some lattitude and slow down to be influenced by the trough?
2667. myway
Quoting all4hurricanes:
and Karl only became a ts before hitting land. this could die over Nicaragua or even the Yucatan.


That is one of the posibilities mentioned by Dr. M. Living in south florida i hope it has a rapid death.
2668. IKE
Looks like the HPC preliminary has a low east of the NE Yucatan on day 6...then has it move NE, to even ENE, to south of western Cuba on day 7.

GFS and ECMWF seem to agree, on their earlier model runs.
.............................................

post#2666...maybe.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
and Karl only became a ts before hitting land. this could die over Nicaragua or even the Yucatan.


Not likely!
The outer effects of 95L/ Matthew-to-be being felt along the southern Lesser Antilles this morning. Light gusting winds here over Dominica from before dawn although depression is heading into the Central Caribbean already.
The morning downcasting crew aboard this morning... later
2672. IKE
Latest GFS has 95L making landfall in 84 hours over Honduras....then heading toward Belize and the Yucatan.
good morning.
dangerous 95L forms JM

SWCaribLoop\

cimssshearmap

2674. scott39
Ike, If 95L does make it into the GOM, I cant help but to keep thinking this maybe an event for you. Im not wishing it on you. It just looks like the trend.
2675. WxLogic
Good Morning....
2676. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning....
Morning...
2677. scott39
Is the possibility still there for 95L to meander in the GOM?
Good Morning, all.
2679. scott39
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Good Morning, all.
Good morning
Quoting gordydunnot:
Well interesting radar link. Think you will see some rotation in rain bands forming N. of South America Curacao.Link


Definite circulation there. And the 850mb vorticity maps show that cyclonic spin extends up higher than standard radar tilt can see. The problem, is, of course, proximity to land, though 95L will eventually move into more open waters north of Panama, and at the same time begin its more NW path. There's an awful lot of energy down that way, so I'd actually be surprised to see 95L (or likely Matthew by then) destroyed on the Yucatan; it's more probable that he will become somewhat more of a threat than he looks like this morning.

Farther east, Lisa's definitely having issues with shear, as expected, and now the NHC says she'll probably not make it to hurricane status after all. No big surprise there; for every Igor or Earl this season, we've had a Fiona or Gaston. Such is life in the tropics.

There's a nice wad of vorticity several hundred miles to Lisa's east, just offshore Africa and adjacent to the Cape Verde Islands. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this energy over the next few days. There's also another fairly healthy (and slightly cyclonic) wave moving across central Africa, but between it and the Atlantic is about the biggest patch of dry air we've seen in a few months there, a sure signal that the CV season is set to close shop for another year.

Lots to look at, but nothing major. Just the way I like it...
2682. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Ike, If 95L does make it into the GOM, I cant help but to keep thinking this maybe an event for you. Im not wishing it on you. It just looks like the trend.


ECMWF and GFS have trended well east and south of here. Can't see it coming up here with a big ULL camped over the SE USA next week...

2683. WxLogic
We have a LLC near 12.5N 69W based on Shortwave SAT.

I expect changes to be increased from 60 to close to 80% as it moves further away from land (SA)and as it gets more convection going.

Continues to show improvement on its low level 850MB VORT:



and 500MB:

2684. scott39
Quoting Chicklit:
The models look farther S with 95L than both Alex and Karl. The not so funny thing is that it will probably be the worst out of both of them, if it tracks like all the models are saying.
2685. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Good morning


:)
Florida Needs to Watch out...

Really Close to Wilma's Track

2687. IKE
GFS has it moving NE or even ENE at 174 hours.


Neapolitan on the Cimms chart you will also see lower convergence and upper divergence in the same area. with what looks like a high starting to build in from the north.
2689. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
We have a LLC near 12.5N 69W based on Shortwave SAT.

I expect changes to be increased from 60 to close to 80% as it moves further away from land (SA)and as it gets more convection going.

Continues to show improvement on its low level 850MB VORT:



and 500MB:

will it slow down and start moving more WNW some?
2690. IKE
10 day GFS...

Wxlogic look at the radar link I posted that where the rotation is on the radar.Link
2692. WxLogic
MLB NWS Starting to introduce some info on the possible tropical system.

"...SLIGHT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS/ECMWF IN HANDLING
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BUT
THE 00Z RUN SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...."
Quoting IKE:
10 day GFS...



The L on that Picture IKE has a direct hit on miami from the SW.
2694. scott39
Quoting IKE:
GFS has it moving NE or even ENE at 174 hours.


I hope thats right and wind shear knocks it down to nothing!
2695. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
will it slow down and start moving more WNW some?


Here's a comparison...

12HRs ago:



Now (or basically latest output currently out):



As you can see the flow is starting to become more SE in the Carib. so I will expect 95L to start pulling away soon to the WNW. How soon? I believe this might start happening at or after it crosses 70W.
Florida seems to be in the cone.
Keep safe
2697. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
MLB NWS Starting to introduce some info on the possible tropical system.

"...SLIGHT RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS/ECMWF IN HANDLING
OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...BUT
THE 00Z RUN SHOWED BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...."
Agreement is now needed in the GOM. Time Time Time
2698. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


Here's a comparison...

12HRs ago:



Now (or basically latest output currently out):



As you can see the flow is starting to become more SE in the Carib. so I will expect 95L to start pulling away soon to the WNW. How soon? I believe this might start happening at or after it crosses 70W.
Thanks
2699. WxLogic
Quoting gordydunnot:
Wxlogic look at the radar link I posted that where the rotation is on the radar.Link


Nice link... LLC is a bit broad at this time, but should get better as it pulls away from the coast.
might just nick s florida hopefully follow the gulf stream out which would put miami on the weak side
Good morning, everyone, running late here.

Anything new in paths, etc.?
Good morning.

It feels weird to have no hurricanes out there, almost.

Not too surprised to see 95L being a bit patchy this morning. 'John Hope Rule' and all. Its proximity to South America probably doesn't help a lot, either. Once it clears 75W, then see.

Beyond that, how far south it goes will be key. If it travails Central America for the longest of time, the longer it'll take to re-organise.

The Euro has completely changed its tune on the last run too it seems... Lisa doesn't last long and while 95L ends up on a similar track to the GFS, it doesn't stall it for nearly as long and the intensity isn't that strong. About a TS, really.
possibility of a faster turn north?
2706. markot
shear is not going to be strong,,,,to affect matthew....
Quoting aislinnpaps:
possibility of a faster turn north?


Yes it might shoot the gap and plow into the Florida Peninusla
2709. WxLogic
There's an upper level anticyclone setup around 73W or so which has been "hanging" around. Once 95L goes underneath it, it should have a better chance to increase its convection prior to getting close to C. America:

2710. IKE
Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have come into a better agreement. Looks like the northern GOM will have a cold front come through by the middle of next week and 95L will be a threat to peninsula Florida...Cuba and the Bahamas. Subject to change.

Northern gulf coast...the clock is ticking. The fat lady is clearing her throat in anticipation.
...............................................


Here's the "pattern change"....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THE MODELS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...THE WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE THEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIVING A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH SE TX
ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.

Igor packing quite a punch on his way out the door:

2712. scott39
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone, running late here.

Anything new in paths, etc.?
Good Morning, NW Carribean track looks pretty solid. GOM probably coming more together on track soon. Looks like a N to NE track coming out NW Carribean.How far W it comes out in the GOM will determine how far N and E landfall happens on the Gulf Coast IMO.
so it looks like it will depend on the weakness or lack of weakness with the ridge.
2714. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the GFS and ECMWF have come into a better agreement. Looks like the northern GOM will have a cold front come through by the middle of next week and 95L will be a threat to peninsula Florida...Cuba and the Bahamas.

Northern gulf coast...the clock is ticking. The fat lady is clearing her throat in anticipation.
...............................................


Here's the "pattern change"....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY THE MODELS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...THE WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE CHANCES
OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE THEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIVING A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH SE TX
ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.



I was a bit afraid of this system being kind of slow... I guess your post is confirming it "...slow to push eastward...".
Good Morning All,

Current Conditions in Barbados

Grantley Adams, BR (Airport)

Light Rain Showers
27 °C
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 23 °C
Wind: 22 km/h / 6.2 m/s from the East
Pressure: 1010 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 30 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 487 m
Scattered Clouds 1158 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 56 m
Pretty conducive conditions for Matthew:

72 Wind Shear Map:



Caribbean TCHP's

2717. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Good Morning, NW Carribean track looks pretty solid. GOM probably coming more together on track soon. Looks like a N to NE track coming out NW Carribean.How far W it comes out in the GOM will determine how far N and E landfall happens on the Gulf Coast IMO.
Which this is all determined on the weakness of the High and the timing of the trough!
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.


But this will continue to protect the northern Gulf. However after it passes the northern Gulf could then be open if another storm should pull together and get into the Gulf. Correct??
2719. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


I was a bit afraid of this system being kind of slow... I guess your post is confirming it "...slow to push eastward...".
Which means what? Slower that is?
2720. shawn26
Sammy, those models tell one story pretty much.
NASA Geos-5 model, same basic senerio broad low pressure in the western Caribbean.


2722. QMiami
morning

Pretty similar track to Hurricane King of 1950:



Hurricane King:

2724. WxLogic
Quoting scott39:
Which means what? Slower that is?


If 95L develops it will display a slow movement. So whenever it decides to go... that location and areas around it should be in for quite a bit of rain, if it pans out that way.
2725. QMiami
local met here this morning said right now it looks like 2 scenarios for 95- a cold front comes down and pushes the storm central or south florida or it crosses yucatan into gulf
2726. scott39
Quoting QMiami:
morning

Thats pretty clear. If 95L enters the GOM at the Yucatan point, look out N Gulf Coast and Fl. Panhandle. If it enters at the W side of Cuba. Look out W Coast of FL. and possible E side.
2727. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD AND MUCH
OF THIS NEXT WEEK WILL BE COOLER AND DRY.


But this will continue to protect the northern Gulf. However after it passes the northern Gulf could then be open if another storm should pull together and get into the Gulf. Correct??


But the days are getting shorter...northern GOM SST's will start dropping by next week if the models verify. The odds of a major hit here are diminishing. Getting too late in the season here. An Opal track for 95L looks less likely this morning.

I noticed the leaves are starting to fall off of the trees here in the Florida panhandle and the acorns are starting to fall and hit the tin roofs.

Welcome to fall 2010 starting today.
Those TCPH's are enough to make you cry. I don't wish anyone bad luck but we would all be better if by some luck nothing travels through that area except a cold front.
Invest 95-L In The Eastern Caribbean:
We have inserted information about Invest 95-L into our Atlantic Tropical Weather Page which can be accessed at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

The tropical disturbance in the eastern Caribbean has been designated Invest 95-L by the National Hurricane Center. This system will be the main concern for at least the next 7 to 10 days as environmental conditions are favorable for development and I suspect that this will be our next tropical storm (Matthew) by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend.

Satellite imagery this morning has shown some increase in organization compared to 24 hours ago. Pretty much all of the global model guidance forecast that this will develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days. Indications are that this system should track westward over the next couple of days and be located in the western Caribbean by about Friday. The GFS and European models forecast a landfall in Honduras and Nicaragua on Saturday before it turns northward into the northwestern Caribbean early next week. Both the European and GFS models forecast an impact on the Florida Peninsula on either September 30th or October 1st.

The Canadian model forecasts this system to track along the north coast of Honduras from Friday night through Saturday night before impacting Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and Monday. The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this to track into the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and forecasts this to come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline next Thursday night or next Friday morning.

The NOGAPS model forecasts Invest 95-L to scrape along the north coast of Honduras on Saturday and then turn northwestward and impact the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday into Tuesday before tracking into the southern Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday.

I see no reasons why this will not develop into a tropical storm and probably a hurricane. Environmental conditions are quite favorable in the western Caribbean and ocean water temperatures in the western Caribbean are the warmest anywhere in the Atlantic Basin. This is a system that will need to be watched very closely. Right now, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba are at most risk from this system and all interests in these areas should closely monitor this system. Further down the road, it is too soon to say how much of a threat this system will pose to the US Gulf coast, however, areas from the Louisiana coast eastward to the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor this system.

Right now, there are a couple of scenarios that could unfold with Invest 95-L. The first is that if the core of this system remains over water or just scrapes along the coast of Honduras, then we may be looking at a fairly strong hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean by the end of this weekend. With this system forecast to be pulled northward by an approaching trough of low pressure, we could be looking at a scenario of a strong hurricane tracking into the Gulf of Mexico by next Wednesday or so.

The second scenario is that this system will make landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday night and Saturday and end up dissipating over the mountainous terrain of Central America and never reach the Gulf of Mexico.

It should be noted that this system will produce heavy rainfall over the next couple of days across the Windward Islands, the Netherlands Antilles and the northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. This heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides across these areas.

Needless to say, I will be closely monitoring this system over the coming days and all interests in the western Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico should pay close attention to the progress of Invest 95-L.

For information about Tropical Storm Lisa, which is expected to remain out in the open Atlantic and not be a threat to any landmasses, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=3234 .
2730. srada
Quoting IKE:
10 day GFS...



Good Morning Everyone!

I know the focus is on the GOM with 95L but the way the GFS is setting up, the east coast looks to get back to back hits..It shows 95L coming in the east side of FL and affecting GA and the Carolinas, then there is a second 992mb storm off the coast of Carolinas and last but not least a third 992mb storm approaching from the west that is heading for the Carolinas..Really GFS, Really?
2731. HCW
95L model runs from the NHC . Have a great day :)

95 L very likely to become Cat3-4.
Lets hope people in florida are prepared.
Pleasant today: 62F, clear skies. We missed the Indian Summer, but that's okay.

Going to turn cold in a hurry, though. Lows of 39F by the weekend.

Anyone wanna swap?
2734. scott39
The potiential track of 95L is no where near set in stone yet in the GOM. Everyone needs to stay aware from the E side of LA all the way around to the E coast of FL.
2735. IKE
Atlanta,GA. extended...

A SHARP PATTERN SHIFT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CERTAIN AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DIVING OUT OF
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES GETS WOUND UP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MODEL TIMING MAY BE A BIT TOO
QUICK WITH SUCH A FEATURE...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE TO
REPLACE THESE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..........................................

5 day Precipitation...



Quoting apocalyps:
95 L very likely to become Cat3-4.
Lets hope people in florida are prepared.


Good morning! And thank you for the daily dose of gloom and doom.
2737. surfmom
Good Morning~ certainly an interesting one.... everyone has brought such "lovely" pics for show & share this AM

Got my eyes wide open - hoping Matthew doesn't knock on my door

2739. HCW
Quoting Cotillion:
Pleasant today: 62F, clear skies. We missed the Indian Summer, but that's okay.

Going to turn cold in a hurry, though. Lows of 39F by the weekend.

Anyone wanna swap?


39 is not cold and sounds perfect :) Can I paypal you money ? I would be glad to trade yucky 70's at night for that
12.7n 71w
2741. IKE
Lake Charles,LA.....

LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND SO INCREASED
POPS...STILL NOT AS HIGH AS THE LIKELY CHANCE ON THE MEX. LOOKS
LIKE A WET WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. BLENDED THE EARLIER AND COLDER GFS WITH
THE EURO ON TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A DEEP LOW OVER
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED EURO THEN WAS AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS TIME SO
TEMPS MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID...FCSTED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO
WILL BE MOST WELCOME AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER.

2742. HCW
From Rob Lightbrown

The Canadian model ultimately forecasts this to track into the Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and forecasts this to come ashore along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline next Thursday night or next Friday morning.
Quoting IKE:


But the days are getting shorter...northern GOM SST's will start dropping by next week if the models verify. The odds of a major hit here are diminishing. Getting too late in the season here. An Opal track for 95L looks less likely this morning.

I noticed the leaves are starting to fall off of the trees here in the Florida panhandle and the acorns are starting to fall and hit the tin roofs.

Welcome to fall 2010 starting today.


Thanks, Ike. I guess since being hit by Lili I tend to be a bit gun shy until after 9 October.

No leaves turning here yet, not for a couple more weeks. We have our 'peek' season for leaves around Thanksgiving time. It's interesting to be teaching about fall in October and only having a couple of leaves turned. But when they finally do the kids get very excited to see it.
2744. QMiami
any one having a problem with the image button - the size feature is gone after you paste image?

ok as I said yesterday this will not develop till it gets to the western carr just like both of the other systems like it this year... the eastern carr does not allow development of storms
2746. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Lake Charles,LA.....

LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND SO INCREASED
POPS...STILL NOT AS HIGH AS THE LIKELY CHANCE ON THE MEX. LOOKS
LIKE A WET WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. BLENDED THE EARLIER AND COLDER GFS WITH
THE EURO ON TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A DEEP LOW OVER
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED EURO THEN WAS AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS TIME SO
TEMPS MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID...FCSTED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO
WILL BE MOST WELCOME AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER.

I hope the bottom drops out in temperature here, and the trough blows 95L as an open wave thru FL. We can always hope.
Top of the morning and happy hump day to all.

From the Lake Charles, NWS - reads like we are getting cooler and wetter - FINALLY!

LONG TERM...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND SO INCREASED
POPS...STILL NOT AS HIGH AS THE LIKELY CHANCE ON THE MEX. LOOKS
LIKE A WET WEEKEND FOR A CHANGE. BLENDED THE EARLIER AND COLDER GFS WITH
THE EURO ON TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON A DEEP LOW OVER
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED EURO THEN WAS AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS TIME SO
TEMPS MAY BE CONSERVATIVELY HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT
SAID...FCSTED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CLIMO
WILL BE MOST WELCOME AND COULD BE EVEN LOWER.
Quoting HCW:


39 is not cold and sounds perfect :) Can I paypal you money ? I would be glad to trade yucky 70's at night for that


Well, colder, I should say, correct.

That said, it's only a max of 52. Don't usually get days like that for another couple of weeks, at least.
2749. IKE
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thanks, Ike. I guess since being hit by Lili I tend to be a bit gun shy until after 9 October.

No leaves turning here yet, not for a couple more weeks. We have our 'peek' season for leaves around Thanksgiving time. It's interesting to be teaching about fall in October and only having a couple of leaves turned. But when they finally do the kids get very excited to see it.


I'm not saying the season is over for the northern GOM..but if these models are correct, the odds of a major hit are diminishing. It can still happen though. I've looked at prior seasons back to about 1960, on Oct. and Nov. hits of systems.
Still 240 hrs out on models pushing this towards s fla, way too early. It is a good time to inventory supplies and plan a what if scenario something which should've been done by now but in reality we know most haven't.

I'm not an expert by any means but common sense says wait 5 days and we'll have a better idea if:
A) There is anything out there to watch
B) If there is a Matthew where will it go inland over belize or honduras and continue west or;
C) will it come back over water?

Scary part is most of the models bring it back over water N of honduras and the GFS has Matt meandering in very warm waters s of cuba from hours 90 thru 180 before it continues to move. That's a full 90 hours, almost 4 days. Not good.

If that were to happen then take all of your supplies and run for the hills.... because then
WE ARE ALL DOOM!!!!!


GFS 06Z at 240 hours
2751. srada
Quoting DestinJeff:


Not really. Don't expect GFS has a grip on long-range with regards to all the energy.


I hope thats the case because if not...
Quoting IKE:


I'm not saying the season is over for the northern GOM..but if these models are correct, the odds of a major hit are diminishing. It can still happen though. I've looked at prior seasons back to about 1960, on Oct. and Nov. hits of systems.


Understood. I have all my preps done if anything should turn up. My kids are ready to dig into the 'hurricane stash'. But that always waits until 1 Nov unless the ingredients are still where something could develop, then it stays waiting for them for a little longer.
well, my classroom is waiting on me. Have a great day everyone. 'See' you all tonight.
Quoting IKE:


I'm not saying the season is over for the northern GOM..but if these models are correct, the odds of a major hit are diminishing. It can still happen though. I've looked at prior seasons back to about 1960, on Oct. and Nov. hits of systems.


Typically, I would put the boards away after the first good cold front. I'll delay this habit for a bit this year.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
well, my classroom is waiting on me. Have a great day everyone. 'See' you all tonight.


teach them well

:-)
2756. surfmom
Sorry Cot., I'd never survive one of your winters...just remember there's always room for you on my beach

as always, I'm concerned about 'canes in the Gomex, but this year we have yet another very nasty ingredient to deal with --- all the oil BP left coating the floor of the Gomex & on shorelines. I don't think anyone has a clue what a cane would....although insurance companies are prepared, -- oil washed up in your yard is considered Hazmat & insurance won't pay.
2757. P451
You never trust anything past 120 hours for cyclogenesis. You rarely put much faith into the 72-120 range either.

We've had many major hurricanes predicted by the GFS and ECMWF this season even dating back to early June only to see it pan out twice:

Earl was well modeled from long range and did indeed form and did so in pretty much the general location the models hinted at as far back as 240 hours.

Igor was a second system that many models hinted at from long range.

No other system was properly modeled from long range.

Out of about 30 odd storms predicted long range (and they were always depicted as major hurricanes) only 2 came to be.

Maybe Matthew becomes the Third. We have to wait and see on that.

Yet, given the possibility of Matthew - I would most definitely discount the GFS' solution of multiple east coast hits because Matthew will use up a lot of energy and change the atmosphere in his wake if he decides to cross Florida and come up the coast.

So until Matthew is "out of the way" I would put very little faith in models depicting development on his heels be it a copycat system or one affecting the east coast.

Quoting Cotillion:
Pleasant today: 62F, clear skies. We missed the Indian Summer, but that's okay.

Going to turn cold in a hurry, though. Lows of 39F by the weekend.

Anyone wanna swap?
nah, did my time in NW NoDak, where we suffered -80'F windchills,-49'F real temps in the winter. I can say now, that I'm enjoying the blazing ,drifting,white sands of Florida instead of snow this season.
2759. P451
Speaking of cold weather I am in Westchester NY for a while instead of NJ and yesterday AM it was 38 and the dew on the cars was slushy. Have had many very nice days in the 60s with crips clear air.

Although they want the next few days to go 90-88-90-85-75-65

Not digging even a temporary return to summer. We got wrecked up here in NJ/NY this summer. Constant 90-100 and just bone dry all summer.

I can't welcome fall and then winter soon enough!
2760. P451
====


Caribbean 30HR WV Loop (95L)


Java intensive loop here save your work before clicking.

Caribbean: 30 Hour WV Loop with 30 minute increments.

Courtesy of the U of Hawaii


====


Caribbean 30HR IR Loop (95L)


Java intensive loop here save your work before clicking.

Caribbean: 30 Hour IR Loop with 30 minute increments.

Courtesy of the U of Hawaii

======
Ready for the cooler dryer down here too. We had heat indexes near 120 for almost two months. Dewpoints over 83 are not pleasant, add working on the beach everyday....oh wait, that was a good thing :D Long work day ahead, y'all have a great day!
best case scenario= goes south of florida worst case= too many possibilities
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
2765. IKE
73 degrees here in the Florida panhandle this morning.
2766. pottery
Good Morning all,
Nice bright morning here.
95L has the forecasters jittery, along with a lot of Coastal Dwellers too.
He could become Nasty.
Hope he knows his Place....
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW
AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


where has this low formed.... it is just a huge area of disorganized mess
Quoting surfmom:
Sorry Cot., I'd never survive one of your winters...just remember there's always room for you on my beach

as always, I'm concerned about 'canes in the Gomex, but this year we have yet another very nasty ingredient to deal with --- all the oil BP left coating the floor of the Gomex & on shorelines. I don't think anyone has a clue what a cane would....although insurance companies are prepared, -- oil washed up in your yard is considered Hazmat & insurance won't pay.


I thought most of it was dealt with by now? It has been kinda out the news as of late, though. I just know the leak's been permanently dealt with. I don't know about the aftermath - guess it'll take years for things to return to normal.

Our winters aren't *that* bad. Last year was a rarity. The year before that was colder than the recent average; hopefully, this year should return to the norm that we've experiencing as of late. Minus the windstorms.

Being an island helps a lot... as soon as you head inland to the continent, then yeah, it gets a lot colder. Just can see any Gulf Coaster turn into a popsicle as soon as they step outside.

Quoting WeatherMum:
nah, did my time in NW NoDak, where we suffered -80'F windchills,-49'F real temps in the winter. I can say now, that I'm enjoying the blazing ,drifting,white sands of Florida instead of snow this season.


Yeah, North Dakota's pretty hard to beat.
and sticky 73' dewpoint at the bus stop this morning.
Hit 88 degrees in Chi-town yesterday w/ a 63 degree dewpoint in the end of September. That was warmer the Isle of Palms down here in SC. These series troughs & fronts this time of year are going to be a major player on the steering influence of 95L once in the Gulf. It's all gonna be about timing w/ this one. The stage is set for a big storm (low shear, high TCHP's, etc etc); but steering will be the big catalyst
we're looking at an odd day of heavy rain here in the SW as some moisture gets pulled up from the gulf of CA. Its been very dry and oddly warm for this time of year where I am so this rain will prove a nice break.
60% now, but not impressed by imagery.

Quoting P451:
You never trust anything past 120 hours for cyclogenesis. You rarely put much faith into the 72-120 range either.

We've had many major hurricanes predicted by the GFS and ECMWF this season even dating back to early June only to see it pan out twice:

Earl was well modeled from long range and did indeed form and did so in pretty much the general location the models hinted at as far back as 240 hours.

Igor was a second system that many models hinted at from long range.

No other system was properly modeled from long range.

Out of about 30 odd storms predicted long range (and they were always depicted as major hurricanes) only 2 came to be.

Maybe Matthew becomes the Third. We have to wait and see on that.

Yet, given the possibility of Matthew - I would most definitely discount the GFS' solution of multiple east coast hits because Matthew will use up a lot of energy and change the atmosphere in his wake if he decides to cross Florida and come up the coast.

So until Matthew is "out of the way" I would put very little faith in models depicting development on his heels be it a copycat system or one affecting the east coast.



I totally agree with this! Whatever happens with the "potential" Matthew it will leave cold waters in his wake.

Good morning all! :)
3 days out



6 days out

Quoting IKE:
73 degrees here in the Florida panhandle this morning.


Moving my son up there this weekend...
Well, it's 60% for the next 48 hours.

There may not be much today (until this evening at the earliest), but it's closing on 75W. Anticyclone up ahead.

By tomorrow, there's a good chance of something solidifying and becoming 'numbered'.
ThundercloudLink
2778. P451
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where has this low formed.... it is just a huge area of disorganized mess


Good question. Not so sure that 95L has any realistic shot of attaining Depression status today.

It's also too close to South America. It is also going to have to contend with that feature to it's NNE now approaching Puerto Rico and as we've seen all season long ECar invests, especially those that have such a feature attached to them, are very slow to organize and some didn't ever organize.

It's also still in the ECar which is known to be a place where cyclogenesis rarely occurs.

If 95L develops, and I believe it has a good chance at doing so, I highly doubt it is today, and I doubt it would until it gets at least south of Jamaica.

The continued debate over whether or not Florida gets a major hurricane seems not only premature but downright silly.

We need a depression first. We need it to be away from South America and away from that feature nearing PR. We need to have several model runs on this depression to be.

Then maybe we can speculate with some accuracy as to future intensity and track?

95L seems to have sucked the logic out of the blog and it's just a day old.
2779. pottery
Trinidad weather now...
Temp 79F
Humid. 59%
Wind calm
Press. 1011 rising.

I can deal with this....
but it's only ten to eight....
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


where has this low formed.... it is just a huge area of disorganized mess
A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
CENTERED NEAR 12N67W.
2781. MahFL
Red alert !...someone call Charlie Crist, and make sure he's praying hard !
FWIW...we could sure use the rain out here in the Carolina's up thru Virginia. It's been bone dry. We're running a 3-4 inch deficit in the last month for much of the state of SC, especially the higher country.
2783. P451
Post 2774: I wouldn't expect much out of 95L until it reaches the position depicted in the Day 3 HPC map you posted.
Quoting Cotillion:
Well, it's 60% for the next 48 hours.

There may not be much today (until this evening at the earliest), but it's closing on 75W. Anticyclone up ahead.

By tomorrow, there's a good chance of something solidifying and becoming 'numbered'.
Yeah. I'd say by tmrw, I think we'll see a depression out of this.
Good Morning Everyone!

I'm just a little bit curious. How in the WORLD is this not an invest in the Eastern Pacific????
EPAC AVN Satellite
TropicalDepressionGeorgette's heading had turned northward to (5.8degrees north of) North NorthWest
from its previous heading of (6degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
TD.Georgette's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~7.3mph(~11.8km/h)

21Sep 12pmGMT - - 22.1n109.5w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #1
21Sep 03pmGMT - - 22.5n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
21Sep 06pmGMT - - 23.0n109.7w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2A
21Sep 09pmGMT - - 23.3n109.9w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - NHC.Adv.#3
22Sep 12amGMT - - 24.0n110.0w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #3A
22Sep 03amGMT - - 24.6n110.3w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4
22Sep 06amGMT - - 25.3n110.4w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #4A
22Sep 09amGMT - - 25.8n110.7w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 26.1n110.8w - - 35mph - - 1000mb - - #5A

Copy &paste 22.1n109.5w, 22.5n109.9w, 23.0n109.7w, 23.3n109.9w, 24.0n110.0w-24.6n110.3w, 24.6n110.3w-25.3n110.4w, 25.3n110.4w-25.8n110.7w, 25.8n110.7w-26.1n110.8w, gym into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
2787. srada
Quoting Msuknotmet:


I totally agree with this! Whatever happens with the "potential" Matthew it will leave cold waters in his wake.

Good morning all! :)


I dont think you can use that synoposis especially with the storms we had this year..look at Igor and Julia..Igor Cat 5 and Julia was a Cat 4..right behind each other
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah. I'd say by tmrw, I think we'll see a depression out of this.
NHC did say later today or tomorrow. They did not say within the next 15 minutes. I am sure they are looking at everything mentioned.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah. I'd say by tmrw, I think we'll see a depression out of this.


Maybe. A good chance, but not certain. Might be Friday.

Quoting srada:


I dont think you can use that synoposis especially with the storms we had this year..look at Igor and Julia..Igor Cat 5 and Julia was a Cat 4..right behind each other


Igor was a Cat 4.
Pottery not so fast look to your east 10n 50w looks a little damp.
Quite the brewing going on right now just over the beach IKE. Mammatus clouds before 7am. Yummy!
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Good Morning Everyone!

I'm just a little bit curious. How in the WORLD is this not an invest in the Eastern Pacific????
EPAC AVN Satellite
I was looking at that earlier and wondering the same thing. Looks pretty good although it is pretty close to land.
2793. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Pottery not so fast look to your east 10n 50w looks a little damp.

I have that area on 'ignore' right now LOL.
It's too nice a Morning to look beyond nine oclock....
Good point take it while you can get it.
2795. IKE
Quoting flwthrfan:


Moving my son up there this weekend...


Where to? Nice area up here.
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Good Morning Everyone!

I'm just a little bit curious. How in the WORLD is this not an invest in the Eastern Pacific????
EPAC AVN Satellite
That's what I was wondering!!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I was looking at that earlier and wondering the same thing. Looks pretty good although it is pretty close to land.


Who knows, it looks like it has some spin now to on the mimic tpw product. But yeah it's close to land and may get sucked back northeast over Central America.

Of course 95L is pretty close to land too (at least at the moment)...
Quoting IKE:


Where to?

Pensacola...10 hrs away from me! Just got hired with the FD up there
Quoting srada:


I dont think you can use that synoposis especially with the storms we had this year..look at Igor and Julia..Igor Cat 5 and Julia was a Cat 4..right behind each other


Yes but Matthew is not a CV storm and conditions are different in the GOM. Isn't it the case that environmental conditions change when a major hurricane passes through? That was my limited understanding especially after reading water temps cooling in Igors wake.

I'm just learning here....but correct me if I'm wrong.
It looks like the future 95L, the future "Matthew", is going to be a fairly large storm on some of the models. Also, the CMC has 95L on the tip of the Yucatan ready to go into the gulf in about six days.
Good morning everyone. Reviewing the comments, I can't tell. Are we doom?

Quoting goldenpixie1:


Good morning! And thank you for the daily dose of gloom and doom.



That guy is a booger-eating fool. No one should ever respond to his posts.
Clarity edit. The insult is directed at apocalypse, not Goldenpixie.
GOOD MORNING VIET...ummm...I mean WU BLOG! Hope everyone's got their "where's it gonna go" caps on today! =)
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Lisa and The Caribbean Wave
Posted: 07:26 AM 22 September 2010 | 0 Comments | Add Comment
Tropical Storm Lisa is meandering in the Eastern Atlantic and probably will be around for quite a while, odds keep it out to sea the entire time.

The last advisory on Igor was issued Yesterday and is no longer being tracked. Igor was fairly strong in Newfoundland.

The wave in the eastern Caribbean (95L) continues to be the one to watch into next week. Odds favor the system getting close or moving into Nicaragua/Honduras (may or may not be a full storm by then) and possibly curving northward potentially putting Central and Eastern Gulf coasts at risk.

Likelihood of it forming into a hurricane is fairly high, it's questionable if it can do that before Honduras/Nicaragua though, or after. Depends on the next few days. If it forms, the most likely time it would form is Friday or Saturday. If things persist more, it could be sooner than that.



The huge uncertainty right now is if and when a turn to the north happens before it gets into the heart of Central America or the Yucatan. If it does not, the risk to the Gulf increase, if it does, then it will mean tremendous amounts of rainfall for Central America.

Those in Honduras and Nicaragua will want to keep a close watch on the system, and those in the Yucatan, and Central Eastern Gulf will want to watch for trends to see what eventually occurs with this.

As the wave has not yet developed into a tropical system, things can change wildly, and models (Especially intensity models) are not all that reliable until it does. Even when it does you have to see the trends to find any model biases that may exist.

Long range discussion can be found in the Forecast Lounge.

95L Event Related Links

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Lisa Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lisa
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)
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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lisa
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lisa -- RAMMB Info


Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)


Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
Ed Dunham
A New Record
Posted: 04:17 PM 15 September 2010
I'm surprised that this was not mentioned by NHC:

The top 5 hurricanes to reach Category IV intensity in the far eastern Atlantic at the easternmost longitude:

5. 9/23/88 Hurricane Helene Cat IV at 14.1N 44.9W
4. 9/9/03 Hurricane Isabel Cat IV at 18.2N 44.1W
3. 9/1/95 Hurricane Luis Cat IV at 16.2N 43.6W
2. 9/7/57 Hurricane Carrie Cat IV at 17.0N 42.0W

1. 9/15/10 Hurricane Julia Cat IV at 17.3N 31.8W

Since 2 through 5 are really closer to central Atlantic locations, Julia is really the only hurricane to hit Cat IV in the far east Atlantic. I browsed through the hurricane track data rather quickly so its possible that I may have missed one. Julia didn't just beat the previous record, she clobbered it by 585NM.
ED
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Lisa and The Caribbean Wave
Sep.20 - 10 comments
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When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
The high terrain might do quite a number on this thing if it docks there. Unless it slows down & somehow gets steered to the north toward the Yucatan / Cuba 'gap'.

2806. tkeith
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center

I can't argue with that....
2808. scott39
Here is a 10 year history from the Archives. These are TCs to make US landfalls once inside the GOM forming in mid/late September thru mid/Late Oct. 2009-- N Gulf Coast--Ida 11/4/--11/10 TS/Landfall . 2008/None 2007/None 2006/None 2005-- N Gulf Coast, Rita 9/18--9/26 Cat3/Landfall 2005--West Coast of Fl, Wilma 10/15--10/26 Cat3 Landfall 2004-- N Gulf Coast, Matthew 10/8--10/11 TS/Landfall 2003/None 2002-- N Gulf Coast, Isidore 9/14--9/27 TS/landfall N Gulf Coast Lili 9/21--10/4 Cat1 landfall 2001/None 2000--N Gulf Coast Helene 9/15--9/25 TS/Lanfall. Do not count out New Orleans with these kind of stats!!
Good morning, all! So, which part of FL appears to be the most threatened part for the storm come next week?
2810. srada
Quoting Msuknotmet:


Yes but Matthew is not a CV storm and conditions are different in the GOM. Isn't it the case that environmental conditions change when a major hurricane passes through? That was my limited understanding especially after reading water temps cooling in Igors wake.

I'm just learning here....but correct me if I'm wrong.


LOL..Im learning too..
Good morning, all. It seems the Gulf area (including Florida peninsula) could get pretty wet next week.
Quoting MiamiThreater:
Good morning, all! So, which part of FL appears to be the most threatened part for the storm come next week?



My guess would be from Tampa to points south. But its only a guess.
Quoting srada:


LOL..Im learning too..


lol! It's good to know I'm not the only one! :-)
Quoting P451:
You never trust anything past 120 hours for cyclogenesis. You rarely put much faith into the 72-120 range either.

We've had many major hurricanes predicted by the GFS and ECMWF this season even dating back to early June only to see it pan out twice:

Earl was well modeled from long range and did indeed form and did so in pretty much the general location the models hinted at as far back as 240 hours.

Igor was a second system that many models hinted at from long range.

No other system was properly modeled from long range.

Out of about 30 odd storms predicted long range (and they were always depicted as major hurricanes) only 2 came to be.

Maybe Matthew becomes the Third. We have to wait and see on that.

Yet, given the possibility of Matthew - I would most definitely discount the GFS' solution of multiple east coast hits because Matthew will use up a lot of energy and change the atmosphere in his wake if he decides to cross Florida and come up the coast.

So until Matthew is "out of the way" I would put very little faith in models depicting development on his heels be it a copycat system or one affecting the east coast.



Well, hello. You have a new take. May a novice ask a question? When you say "change the atmosphere in his wake," what do mean exactly? I've seen how Igor has left cold water and dry sinking air in his wake, so something like that?
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Good morning, all. It seems the Gulf area (including Florida peninsula) could get pretty wet next week.


as my Mom would say "we sure could use some rain." Of course, it could rain every day for a month and she's say that when she was in a canoe paddling down the street. It's her standard response to rain.
Quoting MiamiThreater:
Good morning, all! So, which part of FL appears to be the most threatened part for the storm come next week?
Gonna have to go with the consensus & say Clearwater down around to the Keys. But I also wouldn't rule out Miami-Dade & even the Panhandle at this point. We'll know more once this thing gets a 'closed-cirulation' gets a number or name.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



My guess would be from Tampa to points south. But its only a guess.


Oh really?
Link radar from netherland antilles
really? interesting you say that because if the trough goes slower that means a more westward movement right?

I am figuring that is why the models shifted a bit westward hitting Mexico. Last night almost all the models unanimously had Matthew going right in between the northeast Yucatan and western cuba.

am i not seeing something correct?
2801. hahaha!

AYBABTU

lmao
Quoting scott39:
Here is a 10 year history from the Archives. These are TCs to make US landfalls once inside the GOM forming in mid/late September thru mid/Late Oct. 2009-- N Gulf Coast--Ida 11/4/--11/10 TS/Landfall . 2008/None 2007/None 2006/None 2005-- N Gulf Coast, Rita 9/18--9/26 Cat3/Landfall 2005--West Coast of Fl, Wilma 10/15--10/26 Cat3 Landfall 2004-- N Gulf Coast, Matthew 10/8--10/11 TS/Landfall 2003/None 2002-- N Gulf Coast, Isidore 9/14--9/27 TS/landfall N Gulf Coast Lili 9/21--10/4 Cat1 landfall 2001/None 2000--N Gulf Coast Helene 9/15--9/25 TS/Lanfall. Do not count out New Orleans with these kind of stats!!
Good info. Not ready to rule out anything JUST yet...including NOLA
Hurricane Hunters scheduled to go out later today if it doesn't get canceled.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT
Link
This is why FL should be concerned after October 1st notice the change in the tracks after September.
2829. HCW
models are really slowing this one down

Thanks, gang! I think Ike may be spared by the cold front up there, around his neck of the woods.
2832. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good info. Not ready to rule out anything JUST yet...including NOLA
The good news about all these years with the exception of 2005. Is that the TCs were realitively weak at landfall. Although with all the energy in the Carribean and GOM, 2010 may play out like 2005 :(
lisa is the only cv storm i've ever seen go back east.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hurricane Hunters scheduled to go out later today if it doesn't get canceled.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT
Good. We'll have more of an idea then.
Geoffrey, you near by, I'm at Boca right now.
Quoting scott39:
The good news about all these years with the exception of 2005. Is that the TCs were realitively weak at landfall. Although with all the energy in the Carribean and GOM, 2010 may play out like 2005 :(
Yeah could be a repeat...you never know. Let's hope not. Those shear & TCHP maps in the GOM are frightening.
HH's will probably go out today since it may not take long for this one to spin up and I think this is a special research year for cyclogenesis...besides, obviously there are a lot of populated areas around this!
Link
Quoting KeysieLife:
GOOD MORNING VIET...ummm...I mean WU BLOG! Hope everyone's got their "where's it gonna go" caps on today! =)


And many still in the 'when's it gonna get going' phase. Once it does, it may not take long to ramp up. Wow. Interesting scenario.
2842. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeah could be a repeat...you never know. Let's hope not. Those shear & TCHP maps in the GOM are frightening.
I hope High wind Shear picks up and Dry air helps us out. Maybe a ULL will come in and save the day.
Quoting DestinJeff:
NEED MORE WILMA LOOPS!


Jeff, put the gun down.
Quoting Chicklit:


Jeff, put the gun down.


Morning, Chicle, que bola, vieja?
Quoting DestinJeff:
Breaking news...

The Chart has gone into hibernation until next June. As is customary, The Chart is less useful after the Peak of the Season and will be replaced by The Track Map in all future posts.

*singing* Spider Chart, Spider Chart, does whatever a Spider Chart does.
Quoting scott39:
I hope High wind Shear picks up and Dry air helps us out. Maybe a ULL will come in and save the day.


Scottie, there ain't no more dry air or ULL's.
There may be an anticyclone trying to form over 95L.
what time are those models you ran as of?
Wind shear very low at the moment in our area of concern in the Carib

2852. surfmom
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all,
Nice bright morning here.
95L has the forecasters jittery, along with a lot of Coastal Dwellers too.
He could become Nasty.
Hope he knows his Place....
LOL - best not be my back yard - lovely morning here as well - chickens are singing instead of panting
I am thinking this is a bad thing for Florida if the models are slowing this down?
2854. scott39
Quoting Chicklit:


Scottie, there ain't no more dry air or ULL's.
There may be an anticyclone trying to form over 95L.
Were all DOOM!!
Hi Surfmom,
It was a cooler morning over on this side too.
2856. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
NEED MORE WILMA LOOPS!

CHA-CHING!
I'm doom if I don't get to work while everyone's keeping an eye on 95L.
Will check back much later.
2858. HCW
RI is looking likely as we get into Sat and Sunday with near perfect conditions. I would not be surprised to see a major cane as early as Sat evening in the 120mph range
2859. scott39
Hey Chicklit, maybe it will drive itself into the mountains of Central America and die a miserable death!!
Good Morning...........Looking at the am CIMMS charts, 95L starting to get vertically stacked in terms of vorticity but still lacking real persistent convection near the developing COC so it will still take some time to organize......Not convinced that it will get into the Gulf yet particularly if it stays on the weak side over the next 48 hours. It would need to really blow up in a short period of time IMHO in order to start trekking towards the Yucatan Channel and not sure that this will happen.......We should know by Friday.
2862. MahFL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I like the purple model.
2863. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
NEED MORE WILMA LOOPS!
We need a Fred loop from 1979. Hes tired of Wilma getting all the attention!
What gives? Where Bob Dicafrio's video this morning, it's taking him forever to put it out, -_-.
CODE RED 60%
Quoting scott39:
I hope High wind Shear picks up and Dry air helps us out. Maybe a ULL will come in and save the day.
Never hurts to think positive! Although after analysing some of the forecasting models & plots, shear may in fact pick up...especially near the Yukatan / Cuba gap & the GOM in the later runs.

And if dry air can invade before the system becomes too large & organized; then yeah, we're talking a different ball game.
T.C.F.A.
INV95/XX/XL
MARK
13.33N/67.33W
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning...........Looking at the am CIMMS charts, 95L starting to get vertically stacked in terms of vorticity but still lacking real persistent convection near the developing COC so it will still take some time to organize......Not convinced that it will get into the Gulf yet particularly if it stays on the weak side over the next 48 hours. It would need to really blow up in a short period of time IMHO in order to start trekking towards the Yucatan Channel and not sure that this will happen.......We should know by Friday.


Meaning! So, according to you, all of the models are out to lunch then? For taking it north? GIVE IT TIME, ACERE.
Just Checking in... And South Florida and Central Florida need to be real concerned about this...

Specially if it slows and stays over water
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Never hurts to think positive! Although after analysing some of the forecasting models & plots, shear may in fact pick up...especially near the Yukatan / Cuba gap & the GOM in the later runs.

And if dry air can invade before the system becomes too large & organized; then yeah, we're talking a different ball game.


Wrong, the models keep favorable sheer in tact.
It appears the GFS/EURO are in better agreement the trough will be strong enough to pull what ever is down there northward and eventually NE.
2874. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:


You were? When?
When Hurricane Fredric Traumatized me as a kid. DOOM was all over the place. School was out for 2 weeks! Didnt have to take a bath either. Was like camping in our house for 2 weeks. Good Times!!
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Never hurts to think positive! Although after analysing some of the forecasting models & plots, shear may in fact pick up...especially near the Yukatan / Cuba gap & the GOM in the later runs.

And if dry air can invade before the system becomes too large & organized; then yeah, we're talking a different ball game.


Keep in mind that this is still September, and you are describing early Nov. conditions. GET A GRIP.
Quoting DestinJeff:
NEED MORE WILMA LOOPS!
LOL. Please no!!
Quoting hurricane23:
It appears the GFS/EURO are in better agreement the trough will be strong enough to pull what ever is down there northward and eventually NE.


Good morning, Adrian. How are you and yours doing (including your expected addition) Congrats, BTW, how exiting, ^_^. On a serious note, well, that cannot be good for us down here, now can it?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Just Checking in... And South Florida and Central Florida need to be real concerned about this...

Specially if it slows and stays over water

Thats the thing, 06z GFS has it staying over water after exiting honduras over 90 hours (from 90-180) before moving north and hitting s fla at 240. Obviously way to early but still a scary scenario.
My post #2750 is my take...lol , like anyone cares but there it is.
2879. HCW
Quoting scott39:
When Hurricane Fredric Traumatized me as a kid. DOOM was all over the place. School was out for 2 weeks! Didnt have to take a bath either. Was like camping in our house for 2 weeks. Good Times!!


I remember those days and it seems like yesterday. We had no power for 17 days after that storm
From today's By The Numbers blog update (check it out if you like):

Today marks the one-month anniversary of the birth of Danielle. At the 11AM EDT TWO on August 22nd, the season TC count stood at 3-1-0, and ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) was an anemic 9.095. Since then, we've gone an astounding 9-5-5, and have gathered an additional 117.34 ACE units. That's an average of one named storm every 3.45 days, a major hurricane every 6.2 days, and 3.78 ACE units per day.

Today is also the 31st day out of the last 32 with at least one active system (September 5th is the only exception). In that span, there have been 20 days with more than one storm going, and seven of those saw three active storms. In that same span have been six days with multiple hurricanes, including two with three hurricanes in action. We've also had, incredibly, multiple major hurricanes on two different days.

Named Tropical Cyclones by Date

ACE Distribution by Day
Quoting MiamiThreater:


Keep in mind that this is still September, and you are describing early Nov. conditions. GET A GRIP.
OKAY OKAY...I'll get a grip. whatever you say master. lol.

which sheer map models were you refering to in post 2875 MiamiTheatre btw?
2882. scott39
Quoting HCW:


I remember those days and it seems like yesterday. We had no power for 17 days after that storm
It was fun as a 10 year old, but would not want to do it now!
Quoting hurricane23:
It appears the GFS/EURO are in better agreement the trough will be strong enough to pull what ever is down there northward and eventually NE.


Adrian we looking at a Southwest florida hit?

Like a Wilma Track.

TIA
Quoting cat5hurricane:
OKAY OKAY...I'll get a grip. whatever you say master. lol.

which sheer map models were you refering to in post 2875 MiamiTheatre btw?


Just saying, the CISS ones, btw.
Quoting melaniestx:


me too, i like his other blog, but its not the same here


link plz.
Quoting MiamiThreater:


Meaning! So, according to you, all of the models are out to lunch then? For taking it north? GIVE IT TIME, ACERE.


Most of the current models are taking to the west into the Yucatan/Central America area and not "through" the Yucatan Channel.....Merely commenting on the general proposition that a weak system will trend west and that it would have to spin up quickly before the models would start trending more to the North.
Quoting MiamiThreater:


Just saying, the CISS ones, btw.
Cool. thnx ;)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LISA...LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG
NNNN


Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Most of the current models are taking to the west into the Yucatan/Central America area and not "through" the Yucatan Channel.....Merely commenting on the general proposition that a weak system will trend west and that it would have to spin up quickly before the models would start trending more to the North.


Correct, however, those are only the ''short'' term runs, the long term runs, unanimously take it north. Where are you falling to see this, sir, if I may ask?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Most of the current models are taking to the west into the Yucatan/Central America area and not "through" the Yucatan Channel.....Merely commenting on the general proposition that a weak system will trend west and that it would have to spin up quickly before the models would start trending more to the North.



Yes, I know that stronger systems tend to feel the poleward movement quicker as oppose to weak ones, :),
Quoting MiamiThreater:


Correct, however, those are only the ''short'' term runs, the long term runs, unanimously take it north. Where are you falling to see this, sir, if I may ask?


Poof.
Most of the Models are taking it through the Yuctan Channel and up into Florida or Cuba
a td this afternoon this is no karl
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Adrian we looking at a Southwest florida hit?

Like a Wilma Track.

TIA


Unfortunatly the models have trended towards the GFS idea of the deepening CONUS trough picking this thing up. Still plenty of time to watch but its certainly possbile this system could track in a similar fashion to that of wilmas. Conditions also look great across the NW caribbean sea were some serious deeping may occur if it doesn't get to tangled with central america.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADAR DATA FROM
CURACAO INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...SQUALLS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES...AND THE NORTHERN COASTS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE DAYS.

2897. NotJFV

weathermanwannabe:

I Think that 95L is a Significant threat to Cuba and Florida.

It Seems like it might take the same track as Hurricane W Did in 2005.
Quoting MiamiThreater:


link plz.
u have mail
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Poof.


Likewise, ......,as the old saying would go in SPN, ''No hay mas ciego que el que no quiera ver''.
2901. scott39
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Most of the current models are taking to the west into the Yucatan/Central America area and not "through" the Yucatan Channel.....Merely commenting on the general proposition that a weak system will trend west and that it would have to spin up quickly before the models would start trending more to the North.
Alex and Karl both waited to spin up right before land. 95L probably wont be any different. IMO I dont think this one is going to Mexico or Texas. The weaker it stays though it will go farther W into the GOM, which I think would put a landfall farther N than E. IMHO
Quoting hurricane23:


Unfortunatly the models have trended towards the GFS idea of the deepening CONUS trough picking this thing up. Still plenty of time to watch but its certainly possbile this system could track in a similar fashion to that of wilmas. Conditions also look great across the NW caribbean sea were some serious deeping may occur if it doesn't get to tangled with central america.


Yea look at all that Hot water in the Carribean...

Could be a Major Hurricane...
Quoting MiamiThreater:


link plz.


Google stormw to find his blog. Watching 95L from South Mississippi.
2904. scott39
Is GFS forecasting a stronger TC with its turn to the N sooner?
I Say 95L will become a TD Thursday Night.


12:00Z
It couldn't be Wilma track entirely, anyway.

That storm formed just off Jamaica.
06z nogaps heading NE at the end of its run.Link
Quoting cat5hurricane:


12:00Z


The Black , Purple and Red Model are the most relaible
Happy Equinox my friends.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



That guy is a booger-eating fool. No one should ever respond to his posts.
Clarity edit. The insult is directed at apocalypse, not Goldenpixie.


I just worry about the boy who cried wolf syndrome with him. What if there actually is a CAT 5 barreling down on Florida and people just think he's still playing...?
2912. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:


12:00Z
The models are picking up on a weaker storm in the Carribean.
Quoting hurricane23:
06z nogaps heading NE at the end of its run.Link


The link stays blank on my PC,a Adrian
I would't discount the possibility of future TCs following a similar path simply because Matthew would be churning up the deeper colder waters in his path.

The currents in that area are VERY strong and VERY warm. This should quickly erase any sign he was there in the SSTs.

As a matter of fact, if he sits his butt off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras for a few days, he'll be sitting right over one of the strongest of these currents. This will essentially spoon feed him all the warm water he needs...



He'll definitely spin up much later in the stage like Alex & Karl. How soon & how much he intensifies thereafter will ultimately determine his fate after docking in Central America. With the rugged terrain & topography there, he could die off there & just his remnants will be pulled north.

Afterall, we do need some good rain in SC, just not hurricane conditions!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


This Post has the models
2917. Gearsts
Quoting scott39:
Alex and Karl both waited to spin up right before land. 95L probably wont be any different. IMO I dont think this one is going to Mexico or Texas. The weaker it stays though it will go farther W into the GOM, which I think would put a landfall farther N than E. IMHO
But this is a wave so it wont take that long to develop.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link radar from netherland antilles


Looks like some spinup may be starting.
2919. divdog
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Most of the Models are taking it through the Yuctan Channel and up into Florida or Cuba
not true .. see post 2906
95L Already has a Broad Circulation.. Once it Consalidates and Because its soo Close to land.. the Minute this thing pops up more convection and they find 30mph winds it will become a td
2922. scott39
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I just worry about the boy who cried wolf syndrome with him. What if there actually is a CAT 5 barreling down on Florida and people just think he's still playing...?
Unless they are 5 or under they would know better. Not a good example of cried wolf story! LOL
06 Dynamic Model Runs:

Quoting Gearsts:
But this is a wave so it wont take that long to develop.
It shouldn't, but I'm just not impressed w/ current imagery. I was pitching for him to become a TD later today, but don't think that'll happen till late tmrw evening at the earliest, at this point.
2925. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
06 Dynamic Model Runs:

that trend would be good for a weaker TC. Now the GOM needs to bring its boxing Gloves out!
I believe 95L will be a all or nothing storm. It will either dissipate over Central America or it is stays over water, become a Cat 3-5 storm and threaten the Gulf Coast (most likely Florida somewhere between Miami and Pensacola). Any thoughts?
Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE
September 22, 2010 – 6:00 a.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES ***


The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all parishes effective until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means flooding is possible and citizens are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further News Releases from the Meteorological Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a warning is issued.

An Area of Low Pressure is currently generating unstable weather over most of the Central Caribbean. The disturbance is expected to continue moving westward and should continue to affect the weather over Jamaica.

Currently, Satellite Imagery indicates a large area of showers with embedded thunderstorm across the central Caribbean. RADAR imagery shows some outbreaks of showers and vigorous thunderstorms along and off the south east coasts of Jamaica.

The forecast is for increasingly cloudy conditions with continued outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms particularly over eastern parishes this morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity should spread to the west later today. This is expected to persist over the island into Thursday morning as the system moves south of the island, then into the western Caribbean. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for all parishes.

Fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution as strong, gusty winds are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

rar
Quoting coffeecrusader:
I believe 95L will be a all or nothing storm. It will either dissipate over Central America or it is stays over water, become a Cat 3-5 storm and threaten the Gulf Coast (most likely Florida somewhere between Miami and Pensacola). Any thoughts?
I like that alot. I can actually see that.
AL, 95, 2010092206, 125N, 675W, 25, 1009, DB
AL, 95, 2010092212, 125N, 694W, 25, 1009, DB
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I like that alot. I can actually see that. Leaning more toward the former though.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I like that alot. I can actually see that.


lol
2933. Gearsts
Quoting cat5hurricane:
I like that alot. I can actually see that.
The models arent really developing this until it gets south of jamaica.Vort is really increasing!
New Blog
2935. scott39
2000-2009 Sept/Oct GulfCoast TCs landfalls FL. WestCoast--1

N/NE GulfCoast--6
2936. myway
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I just worry about the boy who cried wolf syndrome with him. What if there actually is a CAT 5 barreling down on Florida and people just think he's still playing...?


Most of us that live in Florida will listen to the NHC and OEM for decision making. Anyone who has been on this blog for any time is aware of the people (several) who continue to preach Florida events as soon as there is one model or condition that could even remotely make a strike possible.

For the people that have not lived in a hurricane zone for very long, please do not make life decisions based on the opinion voiced on any blog. Yoou should follow the direction of the NHC and your local OEM
Quoting Cotillion:
It couldn't be Wilma track entirely, anyway.

That storm formed just off Jamaica.


True, but there is a posibility. I suggest that From Louisiana TX border to Florida people should keep an eye on this one. I would not be surprised if Mississipi gets hit by this, so Im looking at my insurance papers just in case.
What a great year for US! Troughs have picked everything up along the eastern seaboard and very strong high pressure has forced everything in the Gulf/Caribbean West away from US. This appears to be the case with 95L as well as most of the models are trending towards the mountains of Central America:-)
NEW BLOG
An interesting feature I bring up only for curiosity's sake, and not because there's any chance of regeneration: has anyone noticed the remnants of Julia still spinning around the Atlantic? The RGB wide shot clearly shows her COC at around 33.0N/38.5W, or a thousand or so miles NNW of Lisa. She's got good low-level circulation, but some very hefty shear is ripping off what tiny bit of convection she can produce and smearing it into a cirrus plume several hundred miles to her south. Strange to think that she and Igor were close to kissing last week, but now he's off to visit Santa's workshop while she's headed toward the Mediterranean... ;-)

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
Quoting reedzonemyhero:
What a great year for US! Troughs have picked everything up along the eastern seaboard and very strong high pressure has forced everything in the Gulf/Caribbean West away from US. This appears to be the case with 95L as well as most of the models are trending towards the mountains of Central America:-)


I would not be too sure just yet, but I sure hope you are right. The same systems that were pulling CV storms away from the US can also Pull caribean systems towrds the US. The Ridge that protects the GOMEX is constantly eroded by those same systems. The only difference is that this time we have more Caribean systems forming. It is just a matter of timing when the ridge will be eroded and where the hurricane is. If everything match you can have a direct hit anywere from TX to FL which is a bad thing.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
06 Dynamic Model Runs:



The runs make it look like 95L is going to make it into the gulf. Some models are starting to hedge north.