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Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010

Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.

It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.


Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.


Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.


Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.

Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.

The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.

Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.

Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

My next post will be Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters
Uprooted Buoy
Uprooted Buoy
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2501. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Upper level low on the latest NOGAPS run at 144 hours...Link

Looks like a protective shield for the northern GOM.
Good, I knew you would find a shield for us. Im ready to enjoy the fall without TC residue.
2502. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Too bad I live in one of those areas, I am just looking for peace of mind Link

Help me out MLB NWS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THE FORECAST FOR WED-THU CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIFT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTO FLORIDA ON THU. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR MORE THAN 10 DAYS AND
HAVE SEEN ALL KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS
NO WAY TO HANG YOUR HAT ON ANY ONE MODEL OR SOLUTION WHEN THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS NOT EVEN FORMED YET. OFTEN THESE KINDS OF
SYSTEMS HANG OUT IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR AWHILE BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH. THEREFORE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND KEEP POPS AT 40 PERCENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND THE MODELS GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THINGS.
Link



LOL.

I guess with 95L...what we're witnessing is foreplay that's gone on for a long time...
2503. WxLogic
Good Morning...
2505. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...
Goodmorning
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

I guess with 95L...what we're witnessing is foreplay that's gone on for a long time...
Good morning Ike. Where do you see the coc this morning ? Cayman Islands very overcast this morning with rain and gusty winds off and on.
Good Morning, all.
2508. scott39
Still looks like on the latest GFS 6Z that 95L becomes a TC going over the West end of Cuba with a turn to the NW at the end of the run. Looks like the Keys are coming into play as well as S Fl.IMO
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Ike. Where do you see the coc this morning ? Cayman Islands very overcast this morning with rain and gusty winds off and on.


Oh, I didn't know you were in the Caymans. Yuck. This must suck much for you.
If 95L was moving so fast on Monday, why is it still where it is today?
3 Days Out



6 Days Out



Do they really expect the cold front to dig that far South, seems a little early for such a strong front this time of year that far south.
good morning guys wow looking outside my door everything looks brown/grays and the clouds above black gray anyway I see we may very well have TD 15 or maybe even TS matthew at 11am today
2513. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Ike. Where do you see the coc this morning ? Cayman Islands very overcast this morning with rain and gusty winds off and on.


13-14N and 73-74W.

Looks to be moving along at a good clip.
2511. blsealevel 11:21 AM GMT on September 23, 2010
3 Days Out

Local mets in S. TX are saying we'll see the front on Sunday or Monday with temps down to 67 at night (but then they're usually never right); however, hoping that it'll reach us.
I hope this one stays away from all people, but then I tend to see the glass half full.

Classroom of kids waiting on me. Have a great day everyone!
2516. P451
95L still very disorganized.

This has been the norm so far this season in the Caribbean and 95L is very close to land and will be so until it moves further west south of Jamiaca - then it will have the room to develop.

That feature to it's north has also disrupted the system over the past few days.

It still has a good chance to develop and possibly be a hurricane as it landfalls in Central America but I'd still like it to develop into a depression before even making that call.

As to following those long range models that had Florida getting bombed with a major hurricane, well, maybe some will now see why the past three days I and other bloggers have suggested to wait and see before putting any faith in those solutions.

2517. P451
====


Caribbean 30HR WV Loop (95L)


Java intensive loop here save your work before clicking.

Caribbean: 30 Hour WV Loop with 30 minute increments.

Courtesy of the U of Hawaii


====
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...


Good morning. Looks like our invest is building convection. Got any hints as to what could be in store down the road.
2519. scott39
Quoting P451:
95L still very disorganized.

This has been the norm so far this season in the Caribbean and 95L is very close to land and will be so until it moves further west south of Jamiaca - then it will have the room to develop.

That feature to it's north has also disrupted the system over the past few days.

It still has a good chance to develop and possibly be a hurricane as it landfalls in Central America but I'd still like it to develop into a depression before even making that call.

As to following those long range models that had Florida getting bombed with a major hurricane, well, maybe some will now see why the past three days I and other bloggers have suggested to wait and see before putting any faith in those solutions.

Does the latest GFS 6Z carry any weight?
Quoting weatherwart:


Oh, I didn't know you were in the Caymans. Yuck. This must suck much for you.
Not too worried yet but still watching very close. I know how they tend to ramp up pretty quick in the western Caribbean and the way the models show it looks like we will definitely get something from it either before it hits Nicaragua or when it makes the turn .
Quoting IKE:


13-14N and 73-74W.

Looks to be moving along at a good clip.
Thanks.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE MOVES WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA DURING
THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR TODAY DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH THE 50 POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH...40 SOUTH CENTRAL AND 30 ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY WEST OUT INTO THE
GULF THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING. DURING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 2 INCHES...WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE
COAST ON FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN SOME ON SATURDAY ALLOWING THE SEA
BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND A SHORT DISTANCE. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
DOMINATES THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES WEST ACROSS THE STATE WITH A MOIST EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE HELPS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL.

THEN FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH OR
LOW ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN ONE THIRD OF THE NATION WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND APPROACHES FL AND
ADJACENT WATERS. WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLING THESE FEATURES
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE CURRENT TREND
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH 24/06Z ALTHOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING CUMULUS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR. ANTICIPATE VCTS WITH BKN VFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS EASTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND
SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AGAIN
TONIGHT. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME
WITH A SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

lol weatherwart well yep he's from cayman and he has it in his name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
2524. WxLogic
Currently there's more convection associated with 95L than yesterday thanks to DMAX. I estimate the center to be around 13.5N 73.5W with the heaviest convection to the E and N of the center:



Vorticity wise... 95L appears to be better stacked now that it has pulled away from SA, but will need more convection to increase its vorticity at 500MB:

850MB:



500MB:



Low level convergence is there and should assist on further convection generation today and there's an OK upper level divergence:



Finally, the upper level anticyclone has relocated further W, closer to Central America and it should actually get better organized as it approaches Nicaragua. I believe NAM has a general idea on its development cycle.
look for very heavy rain with this trough the system is coming from the deep tropics drum roll for the 8am
2526. P451
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys wow looking outside my door everything looks brown/grays and the clouds above black gray anyway I see we may very well have TD 15 or maybe even TS matthew at 11am today


I don't see how that would be possible. The system just barely became discernable in the past few hours as we reached DMax. It needs to get a whole lot better organized and it needs to persist through the day. If it does I'd say TD at 5pm maybe. Let's see how it handles the transition towards DMin. Will the convection wane or will it persist?

I _could_ see the NHC classifying the system on he early side given it's location and if they believe it's a given to develop today - versus if this was way out in the Atlantic where it wouldn't be a threat for a long period of time.
2527. scott39
I guess models past where 95L is now, is no longer open for discussion. LOL
Quoting P451:


I don't see how that would be possible. The system just barely became discernable in the past few hours as we reached DMax. It needs to get a whole lot better organized and it needs to persist through the day. If it does I'd say TD at 5pm maybe. Let's see how it handles the transition towards DMin. Will the convection wane or will it persist?

I _could_ see the NHC classifying the system on he early side given it's location and if they believe it's a given to develop today - versus if this was way out in the Atlantic where it wouldn't be a threat for a long period of time.


Maybe NHC should wait for after Recon to finish investigating later today.
Quoting BenBIogger:


Maybe NHC should wait for after Recon to finish investigating later today.


NHC tends to wait for recon to give the nod to a classification if it's going in anyway.
2530. WxLogic
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Good morning. Looks like our invest is building convection. Got any hints as to what could be in store down the road.


Summing my obs from my past post... I do believe there's a potential for a more noticeable development as it approaches the upper high E of Nicaragua. Its gaining latitude so there might be a chance that it might just grace the Central American coast line instead of just slamming completely into it.
2531. P451
Quoting WxLogic:
Currently there's more convection associated with 95L than yesterday thanks to DMAX. I estimate the center to be around 13.5N 73.5W with the heaviest convection to the E and N of the center:



Vorticity wise... 95L appears to be better stacked now that it has pulled away from SA, but will need more convection to increase its vorticity at 500MB:

850MB:



500MB:



Low level convergence is there and should assist on further convection generation today and there's an OK upper level divergence:



Finally, the upper level anticyclone has relocated further W, closer to Central America and it should actually get better organized as it approaches Nicaragua. I believe NAM has a general idea on its development cycle.



Good post.
Let's see how 95L handles the transition to DMin. If convection persists we will have a TD today. If not, well, I guess we wait until tomorrow morning as it gains more and more room to develop as it moves west and the South American coastline dips southward.

I am still watching that accompanying feature that is now over Hispaniola. It is definitely a player in the disruption of 95L but how much is a tough call. Once 95L gains more water room that feature may play less of a role. As of now that feature and South America kind of have 95 squashed into a small area. Once the SA element ceases to be a problem then 95L will develop regardless of the feature to the north.

Today we look for persistence of convection.

TD at 5pm
Matthew at 11pm

I think could be a good guess although possibly bold depending on how 95L handles the diurnal cycle today.
UP TO 80%

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
2533. P451
Quoting BenBIogger:


Maybe NHC should wait for after Recon to finish investigating later today.


I tend to agree. I was just thinking out loud a bit that given the system's location and potential threat that they may be inclined to classify it as early as it seems prudent to do so - versus waiting on it as they would a system 1000s of miles from land.
2534. Patrap
95L Rainbow Image



2535. scott39
Quoting WxLogic:


Summing my obs from my past post... I do believe there's a potential for a more noticeable development as it approaches the upper high E of Nicaragua. Its gaining latitude so there might be a chance that it might just grace the Central American coast line instead of just slamming completely into it.
Does it look like more models are trending N missing Central America?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
lol weatherwart well yep he's from cayman and he has it in his name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)


Hahaha. I didn't know. Could be Criminal Investigator. Crayola International. Cattle Inc. Cinnamon Importer. Croatian Immigrant.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
lol weatherwart well yep he's from cayman and he has it in his name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
LOL. Yes, he is from Cayman but he is a she.
2538. Patrap
06z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dymamic Models (More sophisticated models)




THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS run...Link


What The? Strange run..
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2543. IKE
...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.


2544. WxLogic
Quoting P451:



Good post.
Let's see how 95L handles the transition to DMin. If convection persists we will have a TD today. If not, well, I guess we wait until tomorrow morning as it gains more and more room to develop as it moves west and the South American coastline dips southward.

I am still watching that accompanying feature that is now over Hispaniola. It is definitely a player in the disruption of 95L but how much is a tough call. Once 95L gains more water room that feature may play less of a role. As of now that feature and South America kind of have 95 squashed into a small area. Once the SA element ceases to be a problem then 95L will develop regardless of the feature to the north.

Today we look for persistence of convection.

TD at 5pm
Matthew at 11pm

I think could be a good guess although possibly bold depending on how 95L handles the diurnal cycle today.


Indeed... I'm expecting 70% to 80% increase by the 8AM TWO given the fact that it has more persistent convection since DMIN last night which I believe it fair OK. If further organization is seen by the 2PM TWO then we could be looking at 90% to 100%.
2546. scott39
2532-- I couldnt see that. Can you post it again?
Quoting IKE:
...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.




Kinda reminds a lot of TS Gamma for some reason.
2548. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


Good... in my opinion it is actually worth to check it out now than yesterday.
2549. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not too worried yet but still watching very close. I know how they tend to ramp up pretty quick in the western Caribbean and the way the models show it looks like we will definitely get something from it either before it hits Nicaragua or when it makes the turn .


Yep. Stay dry and safe. Well, I'm headed south to Tampa... in traffic. I hate this. Later y'all.
2551. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:


Kinda reminds a lot of TS Gamma for some reason.


95L is 80% as of 8AM EDT:

2554. shawn26
Are there any west winds yet with 95L?
2555. WxLogic
Jeje... at least my observations were not too far off:

8AM TWO:

1. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...

AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.


Here's the favorable conditions:

2556. P451
Quoting scott39:
Does the latest GFS 6Z carry any weight?


I haven't looked at the models as of yet. I will continue to maintain the stance that I would want to see a depression classified first before giving the models much of a glance.

As to the models a rule of thumb is to use the 00Z or 12Z models. I don't like the 6Z and 18Z models and I know I'm not alone. They're not full runs.

I have also noticed in the past that the 00z or 12z models tend to verify better than any 6z or 18z models. I also notice that the 6z and 18z model runs tend to show generally the same things - while the 00z and 12z tend to team up to also show continuity. The two pairs always seem at odds with each other with track shifts, timing, intensity, etc.

An example as to what I am trying to say:

Fictitious System: 00z shows west and weak, then 6z will show more north and strong, then 12z goes back to more west and weak, then 18z will show more north and strong... ETC.

If you like what the 6z and 18z models do then you pay attention to those for continuity and discount the 12z and 0z runs. If you like what the 0z and 12z model runs show - you stick with them for continuity and discount the 6z and 18z model runs.

I've found the latter to be more accurate over time.

To each their own.

I never mix any 6z and 18z runs with 0z and 12z runs because then your continuity is broken.

It's as if you're looking at two entirely different model suites. (0z, 12z runs = one model /// 6z and 18z behave as if theyre an entirely different model)

...hope that wasn't too confusing.

Good Morning Everyone!

Up to 80% I see.

Not surprising. Looks like more of a circulation based on satellite. The 850 vorticity increased and is even farther north than last night.

Still under some easterly shear, but this should slowly lessen over the next 36 hours as it moves under a massive anticyclone aloft. All in all, strengthening should be favored, particularly tomorrow.

Quoting IKE:


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$


LOL, I was thinking maybe NHC wants to delay designation as long as possible as not to have to issue a forecast. From all appearances it will be a difficult storm to forecast.
2559. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$
You will have more lovers then when it was out to sea, unless they have it going into Central America and Dying.
Quoting IKE:


Uh-oh...then the NHC bashing on the 5 day cone and track forecast can begin again.

Stay tuned!

$$


You sound confident in that blogcast.

I bet Cantore is polishing the goggles already.
2561. HCW
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon scheduled to arrive at 10:30 AM EDT, my opinion advisories start at 11 AM EDT or shortly thereafter.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARRIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 23/1500Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1245Z
D. 13.0N 74.0W
E. 23/1430Z TO 23/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
I think once recon takes a peek a lot of things will become more clear.
2563. scott39
Quoting P451:


I haven't looked at the models as of yet. I will continue to maintain the stance that I would want to see a depression classified first before giving the models much of a glance.

As to the models a rule of thumb is to use the 00Z or 12Z models. I don't like the 6Z and 18Z models and I know I'm not alone. They're not full runs.

I have also noticed in the past that the 00z or 12z models tend to verify better than any 6z or 18z models. I also notice that the 6z and 18z model runs tend to show generally the same things - while the 00z and 12z tend to team up to also show continuity. The two pairs always seem at odds with each other with track shifts, timing, intensity, etc.

An example as to what I am trying to say:

Fictitious System: 00z shows west and weak, then 6z will show more north and strong, then 12z goes back to more west and weak, then 18z will show more north and strong... ETC.

If you like what the 6z and 18z models do then you pay attention to those for continuity and discount the 12z and 0z runs. If you like what the 0z and 12z model runs show - you stick with them for continuity and discount the 6z and 18z model runs.

I've found the latter to be more accurate over time.

To each their own.

I never mix any 6z and 18z runs with 0z and 12z runs because then your continuity is broken.

It's as if you're looking at two entirely different model suites. (0z, 12z runs = one model /// 6z and 18z behave as if theyre an entirely different model)

...hope that wasn't too confusing.

No, actually it cleared it up. Thanks
2564. IKE
Quoting CaptnDan142:


You sound confident in that blogcast.

I bet Cantore is polishing the goggles already.


Honduras bound?
80% chance as of 8am!!
Might be the case that if 95L does develop prior to grazing the Mosquito Coast (it doesn't look like a full blown hit at this point), it may stand a better chance down the road. One thing that is universal in the 'second low theory' that most of the models are projecting: 95L remains weak through its entire lifetime.

By doing so, its likely that its energy then gets transferred/sucked in by Low#2 which then takes the NE/NNE road.

If 95L does develop, it may well end up stop Low#2 from doing anything due to proximity. Does it take the same path? Looks pretty unclear.

Also to note, even if 95L (and whatever it grows up to be) doesn't make a direct landfall in Nicaragua doesn't mean that it won't be affected by land proximity. If it doesn't hit it or only just barely, it's going to be close to land for days. Central America isn't exactly flat. It'll have some effect, just how much remains to be seen.

Furthermore, those areas may well get pretty wet over the coming days along the shoreline regardless. Never the best situation for that part of the world (not as bad as Haiti, but some of those areas - particularly Guatemala further on up - have been drenched this year. Added rainfall is hardly desirable).
Oh, and with the CoC pulling north as it did, I think there is a good chance that it'll remain north of Honduras and over water for a longer time than some of the models yesterday were showing...
95 l ramping up but way far south. gonna be a NIcaragua and Belize issue
Aerial view. I don't believe it - is that remnants of former x Julia? Lisa not looking all that impressive...down to a TD.

2570. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


LOL, I was thinking maybe NHC wants to delay designation as long as possible as not to have to issue a forecast. From all appearances it will be a difficult storm to forecast.


You can say that again...
Quoting IKE:


Honduras bound?


If not there, in the neighborhood for sure.

Gonna be an interesting one. So many possibilities.
2572. P451
Quoting DestinJeff:


Get Masters on the horn.

Take the blog to DOOMCON 4!


Half the blog has been at DOOMCON 1 for the past 200 hours because of those GFS model runs destroying the Gulf Coast with a Cat 5.
2573. scott39
Quoting HCW:
Hmm That looks like what I was referring to earlier.
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Good Morning Everyone!

Up to 80% I see.

Not surprising. Looks like more of a circulation based on satellite. The 850 vorticity increased and is even farther north than last night.

Still under some easterly shear, but this should slowly lessen over the next 36 hours as it moves under a massive anticyclone aloft. All in all, strengthening should be favored, particularly tomorrow.

Morning! Can't disagree w/ you.
Quoting cajunkid:


Sorry Ike, but that is funny.

So basically, if you live in the Caribbean.

Hi All,
Well the CV season looks to be pretty much over. Lisa is still out there but as the troughs and fronts and shear pick up as cold air moves south storms don't make it very far West usually as evidenced by Lisa.
Plus front are starting to push through the Sahara
Interesting feature at 37W 35N could that be the remains of Julia?
Quoting P451:


Half the blog has been at DOOMCON 1 for the past 200 hours because of those GFS model runs destroying the Gulf Coast with a Cat 5.


They may have to wait a bit longer than they anticipated. I can think of a couple offhand that will be candidates for a nervous breakdown before long. ;-)
Quoting P451:


Half the blog has been at DOOMCON 1 for the past 200 hours because of those GFS model runs destroying the Gulf Coast with a Cat 5.
They were inconsistent though..
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Morning! Can't disagree w/ you.


Morning to you as well. This is going to be a weird forecast down the road for sure!

At least SHIPS intensity is back down again. Some of the guidance also shifted back south in last 6:00z run

Quoting sailingallover:
Interesting feature at 37W 35N could that be the remains of Julia?


Yep

2. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS
. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MP
2582. scott39
Does anybody think that once the trough reaches the GOM, That it could cause wind shear and dry air for 95L, if it gets in the GOM?
oops sorry stormwatcherCI I forgot that you are a woman well ok no let see

lol weatherwart well yep she's from cayman and she has it in her name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
Quoting CaptnDan142:


They may have to wait a bit longer than they anticipated. I can think of a couple offhand that will be candidates for a nervous breakdown before long. ;-)


Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Aerial view. I don't believe it - is that remnants of former x Julia? Lisa not looking all that impressive...down to a TD.

Julia has a yellow circle and is at 10%. Weird year for tropical systems.
Wow.. Models Still Aiming it at South Florida.

2587. scott39
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...
Believe it or not but I think very few on here, are having a nervous breakdown, when its NOT coming to them.
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Morning to you as well. This is going to be a weird forecast down the road for sure!

Big time. Especially in the phases before an actual TD is established for the models to really tap into it. The weak COC needs to become a sure-fire thing.

But it's up for grabs until then.
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Yeah, I don't understand the nervous breakdown and worry at this point. Wait until something forms and the NHC and the models have a good handle on things. Then if it looks like it is headed to your area, do the prudent things, prepare your house and then leave if necessary. Things can always be replaced. That's why you have insurance...


Very true, but you know how it goes... LOL

This far out, the only way I would be concerned is if I was getting ready to take a cruise to Belize & Honduras. :-)
Quoting IKE:




are you talking about me??? LOL

Good morning everyone, back in the office today but had to checkin to see what 95L is up to this morning.

I will be checking in and out as I can.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
oops sorry stormwatcherCI I forgot that you are a woman well ok no let see

lol weatherwart well yep she's from cayman and she has it in her name stormwatcherCI(Cayman Islands)
No problem.
Quoting sailingallover:
Interesting feature at 37W 35N could that be the remains of Julia?
Wonder whats brewing in the western gulf,s/e of Brownsville ,Texas?good swirl their this morning..
TD @ 11?
Shear forecast is very conducive & still looking highly in place for development. And we already are aware of the remarkably high TCHP's looming.

2595. txjac
Looks to me like they are pointed at Cuba ..has to get over that first
95L's pressure dropped back to 1007 (after going up a point early this morning), and winds are still at 30 knots. ATCF has designated it as a "Low" rather than a mere "Disturbance":

AL, 95, 2010092312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 748W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
2556. P451

Looking at a whole page of GFS model cycle comparision statistics it is difficult to see a major difference in model cycles. Generally you could say the 00Z and 12Z correlate better, but not by much. I also however believe the 00Z and 12Z cycles are better, but just based on they have the upper air data.
Some red tide off shore Sarasota County, and Some brown tide off Lee and Collier counties.
The bloom of 2005 was a 12-month siege that killed sea life in an area the size of Rhode Island
2599. tkeith
2600. pottery
Good Morning all.
Hot one here this a.m., with high humidity.
Cloudburst over the Capital yesterday afternoon caused minor landslides and flooding on the 2 main exits from the City (Port-of-Spain) creating major Havoc!

The Trop.Atl looks pretty Benign today, as though the Waves are calming down.

95L is going to bring very heavy rains to somewhere, regardless of development.
Quoting scott39:
Believe it or not but I think very few on here, are having a nervous breakdown, when its NOT coming to them.


Lol. Very True.

I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
2602. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Shear forecast is very conducive & still looking highly in place for development. And we already are aware of the remarkably high TCHP's looming.

Can you change those to not look that bad please?LOL
Morning, it's 8:08 and the NHC 8 a.m. Tropical Weather Discussion isn't posted yet.
How unlike them.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
TD @ 11?
The big question? Ummm...I'd say yeah...it's looking more likely. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he held out till afternoon.
2605. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:


are you talking about me??? LOL

Good morning everyone, back in the office today but had to checkin to see what 95L is up to this morning.

I will be checking in and out as I can.



No, but hello.

95L...

I think the lastest GFS has a realistic grip on things.
95 is going to form a storm right before it hits land and as the Doc say get stuck in central america for a while. The was predicted by the GFS 4 days ago and has been consistent. As another trough approaches in about 4 days and a cold front makes it down into the area..either 95 will reform or a new COC will form off the coast and the cold front/trough will pick that up and curve it over Cuba/Hispanola then carry it north up into CONUS along what will be a stalled trough from the front and along the western periphery of the MA ridge. But it won't be the Monster storm of 250 hour prediction. More like a Paloma because it's going to have to deal with dry air and possibly shear to it's west.
Small chance the front will even be powerful enough to make it a wrong way storm although a front that powerful this early in the season would be amazing but the fact it forecast to go so far south is impressive.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_lu.shtml
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYEA11.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-avn.html

2607. tkeith
proximity to land is the only inhibitor I see to keep 95L down...

30kt mph winds, 1007mb and a 'LO' tag is generally the indication that a TD is close, if not imminent. Particularly if it crops up 2 or 3 times in a row.

(In this case, due to recon, I'd expect the former. They'll let the HHs do their thing).
Quoting scott39:
Can you change those to not look that bad please?LOL
lol. Even if I slap some November dates on there, it still won't look pretty!
2610. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Aerial view. I don't believe it - is that remnants of former x Julia? Lisa not looking all that impressive...down to a TD.

That is the remnant of Julia..Here is our Caribbean Low 6 days out...
2611. scott39
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Lol. Very True.

I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
Same here, They are no fun at all!
Morning all

Not much to say that hasn't been said. Land interaction; Nic/Hond, Cuba, maybe S Fl, are all going to be a big part of what happens with 95. Plenty of wait and see as usual...

It should crawl in to the rapid scan frames on GHCC today...That'll be nice.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Good morning. Looks like our invest is building convection. Got any hints as to what could be in store down the road.
.....imo w/should have td15, maybe even right to ts matthew,5pm imo
2614. tkeith
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 21 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS:
A.THE NCAR G-V MAY FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE
SAME AREA TOMORROW MORNING 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.
. B. NASA DC-8 MAY ALSO FLY THIS AREA DEPARTING AT 22/1600Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Lol. Very True.

I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.
Where at in SC? You near Isle of Palms or Folly Beach.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all

Not much to say that hasn't been said. Land interaction; Nic/Hond, Cuba, maybe S Fl, are all going to be a big part of what happens with 95. Plenty of wait and see as usual...

Hi SJ, Jeff's already at BlogDefcon4; I'd say more like 2. 95L is looking like a TD sometime today though so that may help clear up matters at least in the short term.
Quoting hydrus:
That is the remnant of Julia..Here is our Caribbean Low 6 days out...
she's like a bad girlfriend that won't go away.

gosh...this thing's been all over the map. this run wants him to split the gap it looks like. That's wouldn't be good.
2618. tkeith
Quoting Chicklit:

Hi SJ, Jeff's already at BlogDefcon4; I'd say more like 2. 95L is looking like a TD sometime today though so that may help clear up matters at least in the short term.
good forecast Chicklit :)
2619. Bayside
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Lol. Very True.

I actually moved from Ohio to South Carolina. So I'm possibly in line for some effects from this system. As a weather geek, I'll enjoy it. But I don't live on the coast. If I did, and I owned a place...I would for sure be hoping it didn't strengthen or hit.


Yeah, I would look at these storms a lot differently if I didn't own a house on the water where flooding could cause damage to my home/investment.
2620. Dakster
Quoting DestinJeff:


Get Masters on the horn.

Take the blog to DOOMCON 4!


Good Morning all... Watching like everyone else here is.

Like the discussion from last night to this morning. It appears the blog is back to normal. Keep the banter going. I like to read about waht everyone thinks will happen and why.


How about: Deathcasters 4 - The Wunderground Room. Coming to a web browser near you.

You can get an idea of NHC thinking from the latest SHIPS text, track is from OFCI, so they have done a forecast.
Invest95L : NHC-ATCF
22Sep 12pmGMT - - 12.5n69.1w - - 25knots -- 1009mb - NHC-ATCF
22Sep 06pmGMT - - 12.7n70.6w - - 25knots -- 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
23Sep 12amGMT - - 12.9n72.0w - - 30knots -- 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
23Sep 06amGMT - - 13.2n73.5w - - 30knots -- 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
23Sep 12pmGMT - - 13.5n74.8w - - 30knots -- 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
25knots=~28.8mph __ 30knots=~34.5mph

Copy&paste 12.5n69.1w-12.7n70.6w, 12.7n70.6w-12.9n72.0w, 12.9n72.0w-13.2n73.5w, 13.2n73.5w-13.5n74.8w, pnd, nbw, vqs, trb, 13.5n74.8w-15.42n83.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24*hours.

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection using the speed&heading averaged over the 6hours spanning the last two reported positions
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yep

2. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS
. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MP

Thanks for confirmation
Remember Epsilon back in 2005..
The forecast at the end was like
I KNOW YOU HAVE HEARD THIS BEFORE BUT TS EPSILON SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS..

I don't trust the late season circle back around for a second try at infamy storms...
2624. scott39
Quoting sailingallover:
I think the lastest GFS has a realistic grip on things.
95 is going to form a storm right before it hits land and as the Doc say get stuck in central america for a while. The was predicted by the GFS 4 days ago and has been consistent. As another trough approaches in about 4 days and a cold front makes it down into the area..either 95 will reform or a new COC will form off the coast and the cold front/trough will pick that up and curve it over Cuba/Hispanola then carry it north up into CONUS along what will be a stalled trough from the front and along the western periphery of the MA ridge. But it won't be the Monster storm of 250 hour prediction. More like a Paloma because it's going to have to deal with dry air and possibly shear to it's west.
Small chance the front will even be powerful enough to make it a wrong way storm although a front that powerful this early in the season would be amazing but the fact it forecast to go so far south is impressive.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_lu.shtml
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYEA11.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-avn.html

So in that scenerio, you are looking at a swipe to the keys and offshore the W FL. Coast going N?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
You can get an idea of NHC thinking from the latest SHIPS text, track is from OFCI, so they have done a forecast.


This bit?


LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.6 19.3 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.8 80.3 83.1 85.3 86.9 88.1 88.6 88.5 88.1 87.7
Quoting P451:
95L still very disorganized.

This has been the norm so far this season in the Caribbean and 95L is very close to land and will be so until it moves further west south of Jamiaca - then it will have the room to develop.

That feature to it's north has also disrupted the system over the past few days.

It still has a good chance to develop and possibly be a hurricane as it landfalls in Central America but I'd still like it to develop into a depression before even making that call.

As to following those long range models that had Florida getting bombed with a major hurricane, well, maybe some will now see why the past three days I and other bloggers have suggested to wait and see before putting any faith in those solutions.



Here is the problem with your whole position.....
You are now embracing those same long term models that you just said were wrong. You can't say LT models suck, ignore them, when they call for strikes and then embrace them when they change and dissipate a storm.

If you say don't speculate just wait, then why are any of us here?
Quoting sailingallover:
I think the lastest GFS has a realistic grip on things.
95 is going to form a storm right before it hits land and as the Doc say get stuck in central america for a while. The was predicted by the GFS 4 days ago and has been consistent. As another trough approaches in about 4 days and a cold front makes it down into the area..either 95 will reform or a new COC will form off the coast and the cold front/trough will pick that up and curve it over Cuba/Hispanola then carry it north up into CONUS along what will be a stalled trough from the front and along the western periphery of the MA ridge. But it won't be the Monster storm of 250 hour prediction. More like a Paloma because it's going to have to deal with dry air and possibly shear to it's west.
Small chance the front will even be powerful enough to make it a wrong way storm although a front that powerful this early in the season would be amazing but the fact it forecast to go so far south is impressive.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_l.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/model_lu.shtml
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PYEA11.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-avn.html



I think it's very uncertain how this will all play out and a lot has to do with timing.

If 95L strengthens quicker initially (as I think it is based on more surface convergence, 850 vort, etc) then a more northerly track would occur and it could bypass north of Honduras/Nicaragua staying over land and more favorable for development.


Then the timing of the cutoff low is important too... If it's later, then 95L moves into the Yucatan and spends time over land while slowly being drawn north. Then it's a weaker system, and a more hybrid subtropical low as it heads north to possibly affect the US. If it turns north bypassing the Yucatan you could have more of a Wilma style track (with a less strong easterly component) and a stronger, more tropical system.

None of this will be known for a while...
2628. NASA101
Sorry to bust the bubble for a lot of people including mine BUT I am not sure 95L will amount to much more than tropical storm!
Models were forecasting to be a full blown storm by now and it's not even a TD yet - though soon it might be!?
Also, it seems to have picked up speed - at this rate it might hit land (Honduras) and hence run out of water space!

Also, long term future is also very uncertain - models arent in agreement...
Adding to the tension, NHC is almost 20 minutes late with their 8 a.m. Tropical Weather Discussion.
you scared?
2631. pottery
Quoting cat5hurricane:
she's like a bad girlfriend that won't go away.

gosh...this thing's been all over the map. this run wants him to split the gap it looks like. That's wouldn't be good.

Funny that the 'bad' girlfriends hang around, and the 'good' ones dissapear forever.
LOL
Quoting Chicklit:
Adding to the tension, NHC is almost 20 minutes late with their 8 a.m. Tropical Weather Discussion.


It's already up, Chicklit.

80% on 95L, 10% on ex-Julia.
Quoting Cotillion:


This bit?


LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.6 19.3 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.8 80.3 83.1 85.3 86.9 88.1 88.6 88.5 88.1 87.7


Yes, that is the 06Z track interpolated (OFCI). Here is the track from the 06Z model cycle, they did not do a forecast of intensity, only track.


AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 0 130N 731W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 12 135N 756W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 24 142N 784W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 36 148N 814W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 48 155N 839W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 72 163N 872W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 96 177N 882W 30
AL 95 2010092306 03 OFCL 120 192N 875W 30
2634. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
You can get an idea of NHC thinking from the latest SHIPS text, track is from OFCI, so they have done a forecast.


Has it going south of Belize, Belize by about 50 miles...then staying over the Yucatan peninsula for 2 days and going NE on the end of the run...exiting near the NE coast of the Yucatan.
Quoting Cotillion:


It's already up, Chicklit.

80% on 95L, 10% on ex-Julia.

That's the Outlook, Cotillion. If you look at the main NHC page Discussion is still from 2 a.m.
Quoting Cotillion:


This bit?


LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.6 19.3 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 74.8 76.1 77.3 78.8 80.3 83.1 85.3 86.9 88.1 88.6 88.5 88.1 87.7


So this track has it riding over the north coast of Honduras and then riding over the eastern coast of the Yucatan. A lot of time over land and a weaker storm than it could be...
Quoting NASA101:
Sorry to bust the bubble for a lot of people including mine BUT I am not sure 95L will amount to much more than tropical storm!
Models were forecasting to be a full blown storm by now and it's not even a TD yet - though soon it might be!?
Also, it seems to have picked up speed - at this rate it might hit land (Honduras) and hence run out of water space!

Also, long term future is also very uncertain - models arent in agreement...
Not raining on my parade at all. In fact, that's a reasonable forecast. He'll have to get his act going soon to really become something formidable enough to withstand the blow of the rugged terrain in Central America. This is suggesting that he heads that way of course.

Now if he stay out over the western-central Caribbean & heads for the gulf of yucatan splitting the gap like a few of the models are still suggesting, well that could be a much different story!
Quoting Chicklit:

That's the Outlook, Cotillion. If you look at the main NHC page Discussion is still from 2 a.m.


Ah, of course. Misread.

I see the TWD now, though.
Wouldn't a weaker storm get lifted easier?
Morning Chicklit

TD today looks pretty likely. I'm guessing they will wait until they get recon in there. Hopefully once that info makes it in to the models we will get a little better idea too. I was thinking doomcom 4 would come when the first cone touches a state ;)

cat5-How long are you in the area for anyway? Going to be here long enough to see 95 pass by; should that be the route it takes?
Quoting pottery:

Funny that the 'bad' girlfriends hang around, and the 'good' ones dissapear forever.
LOL
Don't you just HATE that!!
2642. FLdewey
Oh wow the DOOMCON status changed?

Rut row shaggy.
JB, last eve and this morn.

THURSDAY 8 AM
JULIA SHOULD BE CLASSIFIED!!!

How they get away with this is amazing. The cloud shot of Julia shows she has broken away from the front

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentvis.html

And by the way Igor, when merging with the front, caused 107 mph winds on Newfoundland... I am sure it did that on Bermuda too, as the airport is not the best place for big wind gusts. Heck of a way to run a cat one..eh? In any case, I am putting this in perspective. The Hatch it guys named Grace last year further northeast. How is it a former cat 4 with that cloud structure, which by the way if you look at Lisa has distinct similarities, is not classified. It is doing as forecasted moving back to the southwest!

I dont know if it will survive as its moving toward a large area of sinking as evidenced by the strato cu. It should be trackable to near Bermuda next week though and certainly will be moving back toward the US quicker than Lisa..

BTW keep an eye on the cloud mass southwest of Lisa, that system is probably going to come in on the eastern flank of the Caribbean development The GFDL shows why this is so worrisome as without a landfall, this could be a monster. As it is, Florida and in fact the area from the southeast into the central gulf coast has to really pay attention in this pattern over the next few weeks as multiple threats are likely in this years end game

ciao for now ****


WEDNESDAY 11 PM

HEH..WHO'S THAT GETTING SOME CONVECTION..

JULIA!!!

Yes, the never say die in me is rooting for the written off storm to get at enough attention from the guys with the "hatch it" job to hatch here again... And why not? She looks as good as Lisa She sure as all get out looks as good as Grace last year, named well to the northeast of where she is now. Be the biggest comeback since the Karate Kid.

Of course eyes are trained on the Caribbean as well they should be and from last week we both know they would be. And a week from now Florida will be getting hit or getting ready to get hit ( maybe 2 weeks from now too). There are several keys here. not the least of which is the chance for one or more of these systems to "bundle" the energy available to them. Odds are enough skirting of central America and the Yucatan will take place to limit what this could be through Monday of next week.

Two sets of maps you should go look at are oct 10-20 1950 and 1964. One is the King, Love Duet , the other Isbell.

Okay back to me rooting on Julia.... after all my support I gotta wonder.. like Bobby Sherman, with a slight change in the name.. if Julia do ya love me?

Of course one would assume storms would have to have Feelings.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3FMSXAfVp0&feature=related

after listening to that go to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hZI6qJBvDE

if you still arent sobbing, then perhaps you need a few verses of Killing me Softly

When a snowstorm misses me, this is how I feel.

ciao for now *****
2644. IKE
Updated models on 95L...Link
Be back around later when the Recon data starts rolling in.

I'm interested to see what they find. Not sure there is a closed circulation right now, but could be by then. I'd say 30% chance of a TD at 11 and 60% at 5pm.
Good morning everyone. I believe today is the day that 95L will be a TD by 5 pm CDT today. The low level circulation was quite evident earlier today, and convection is blossoming nicely.

Then the headaches will begin for C America and possibly the US.
Quoting IKE:


Has it going south of Belize, Belize by about 50 miles...then staying over the Yucatan peninsula for 2 days and going NE on the end of the run...exiting near the NE coast of the Yucatan.


Unless it really gets it's act together, it may not make it outta there. Belize won't be kind to it. That's some pretty rugged terrain.

Northern Gulf may not be too kind either, if it made it up here. I saw 66F on my patio a couple hours ago. For this time of year, it was chilly.
Here's the poopscoop on 95L

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 17N72W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 13N73W.

WHILE STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA N OF THE LOW CENTER... MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL..700 MB... CIRCULATION COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WNW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 69W-76W. ANOTHER 90 NM WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N72W TO 12N62W.

2649. Bayside
Quoting NASA101:
Sorry to bust the bubble for a lot of people including mine BUT I am not sure 95L will amount to much more than tropical storm!
Models were forecasting to be a full blown storm by now and it's not even a TD yet - though soon it might be!?
Also, it seems to have picked up speed - at this rate it might hit land (Honduras) and hence run out of water space!

Also, long term future is also very uncertain - models arent in agreement...

I've been favoring a position like yours since the beginning on this one, but I've been wrong before (a lot). Gulf coast/FL haven't had much to worry about in a while, so that might be part of the hype. I live in VA so this one doesn''t have me too worried at this point so long as it doesn't stall out just off the east coast and turn into a long nor'easter event like Ida did last November. I do put a good amount of stock in the models even knowing that they are not very reliable so far out, so I'll just keep watching...
According to the OFCI, as far as I can measure....

It doesn't actually have it making landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras (mainland). Exceptionally close, but not quite. If anywhere, it'd be Honduras.

It then takes it over Roatan, then going over Belize and hanging over the Yucatan for a while. For the interpolated.

Model cycle is a little lower and *just* has it clipping the north Honduran coast.
Quoting IKE:

Updated models on 95L...


Models have been consistent over the last 2 days..
2652. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Updated models on 95L...Link
Those bamm models are taking a nose dive.
This graphic includes the OFCI (white) track


The computer models have found my house . If this pans out Belize will be in big trouble as harvest time is just here and the rice and corn crops would suffer big losses
2655. IKE
12:00z

SHIPS is back up a bit in the intensity forecast.



2657. IKE
Looks like quite a bit of land interaction with 95L....the next few days.
THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO TRACK WNW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
2659. Bayside
Quoting Chicklit:
Wouldn't a weaker storm get lifted easier?

I think that stronger storms "get lifted" more because of the coriolis effect and more easily takes advantage of weakenesses, unless the storm is so big that it pimps (pumps) it ride (ridge). Though I might be wrong cuz I'm not formally educated in the subject...
Quoting IKE:
Looks like quite a bit of land interaction with 95L....the next few days.
Yep...that's my thinking
2661. scott39
Hey Ike!
00Z CMC ensemble clears things up... :-)


2663. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep...that's my thinking


Could be a real flooding problem for some.
Quoting belizeit:
The computer models have found my house . If this pans out Belize will be in big trouble as harvest time is just here and the rice and corn crops would suffer big losses

I hope that doesn't happen Belize.
2665. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
00Z CMC ensemble clears things up... :-)




Hey... the always dependable CMC.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
00Z CMC ensemble clears things up... :-)

BR

The jellyfish model!
see y'all later.
2667. IKE
Shear forecast for 144 hours from the 6Z GFS. Strong shear over the northern GOM....

2668. scott39
Looks like Ive made Ikes ignore list for some reason??? LOL
2669. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Looks like Ive made Ikes ignore list for some reason??? LOL


Huh? No.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
This graphic includes the OFCI (white) track




That's not going to weaken it then...

Alex went all the way across and came out on the other side as a TS! That area isn't that mountainous.
Quoting Chicklit:
Wouldn't a weaker storm get lifted easier?
...other way around,think of magnets; the weaker low w/be drawn towards the stronger one....
2672. Thaale
Quoting scott39:
Those bamm models are taking a nose dive.


The Euro isn't ever on the Wunderground or SFWMD spaghetti charts, is it? Anyway, it has 95L plowing stright into the Pacific, too. If it were pictured, it would look like the XTRAP.
2673. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Huh? No.
LOL Oh ok, Ive made a few comments to you and havent gotten a response. I knew you didnt really have me on ignore. I just wanted to get your attention. LOL
2674. IKE
Latest GFDL on 95L...Link


HWRF...Link
Recon on their way... Google Earth link
Quoting IKE:


Could be a real flooding problem for some.
Yeah. If it slows down & the interaction w/ the terrain just rings the moisture out of this thing.
Quoting Chicklit:

I hope that doesn't happen Belize.
Honduras has protected us many times already and probably will protect us again
We're up to 127 in ACE.

2008's total was 144.4.

We'll beat that...
the character ike was right about the speed of the system this morning a few of the characters including mind though it stalled. we were watching clouds. averaged cmc looks like it could be the worse case by not making landfall
Come on Lisa!

Don't die until TD #15/Matthew forms

Our streak will continue then!
2682. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Recon on their way... Google Earth link


Almost there...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Come on Lisa!

Don't die until TD #15/Matthew forms

Our streak will continue then!
LOL!
2684. scott39
At least none of the models are showing a monster Hurricane going into the GOM anymore. Hopefully it will stay that way!
561

WHXX01 KWBC 231206

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1206 UTC THU SEP 23 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100923 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100923 1200 100924 0000 100924 1200 100925 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 74.8W 14.2N 77.1W 14.7N 79.5W 15.5N 82.0W

BAMD 13.5N 74.8W 13.7N 77.3W 13.9N 79.9W 14.3N 82.4W

BAMM 13.5N 74.8W 13.9N 77.1W 14.3N 79.7W 14.9N 82.2W

LBAR 13.5N 74.8W 14.0N 77.8W 14.7N 80.9W 15.4N 84.0W

SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS

DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 53KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100925 1200 100926 1200 100927 1200 100928 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.1N 84.6W 17.7N 88.9W 18.8N 91.9W 17.9N 93.9W

BAMD 14.9N 84.7W 16.3N 88.0W 17.7N 90.0W 17.7N 91.5W

BAMM 15.6N 84.6W 17.2N 88.6W 18.4N 91.4W 17.7N 93.3W

LBAR 16.2N 87.0W 18.6N 91.7W 20.8N 93.9W 15.4N 93.4W

SHIP 65KTS 86KTS 100KTS 103KTS

DSHP 65KTS 86KTS 39KTS 28KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 74.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 72.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 69.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFDL on 95L...Link


HWRF...Link


That HWRF model is disconcerting.
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFDL on 95L...Link


HWRF...Link


Compared to last runs looks more south and prone to dying in Central America.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
LOL!


We've not had a whole day without a storm since August 22. Over a month now!
Morning Folks......Not too much to add to the current discussion except to say that it is a big watch and wait on 95L. Timing of trofs still several days away, rapid development or slower development in the short-term, and general movement towards the west at the moment. CONUS has been very lucky so far, with 12 named storms to date and only a "swipe" from Earl on the US.......The season is not a bust by any means if this storm does not make it to the US but if it should rapidly develop under very favorable conditions on the way towards Central America, it could be a real life-threatening situation for them.
Alex - HIT

Bonnie - HIT

Colin - MISS

Danielle - MISS

Earl - HIT

Fiona - DIED

Gaston - DIED

Hermine - HIT

Igor - HIT

JULIA - MISS

Karl - HIT

Lisa - MISS
2691. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
Shear forecast for 144 hours from the 6Z GFS. Strong shear over the northern GOM....

From the trough that is going to pull Mathew northward. According to some of the mets. This is a deep one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We've not had a whole day without a storm since August 22. Over a month now!
You know, I've been so wrapped up w/ this 95L that that just occured to me. Good observation!
2693. CJ5
95L doesn't look anymore organized this am. If it doesn't get some decent structure soon, I would not expect it to have any impact on the gulf coast.
Y'all have a good morning...Off to class to crunch some numbers.
I said earlier that iwas thinking that we'd have a td at 5pm,I believe we have one now and when hh confirm a closed surface low ,all parameters. Should be met fir classification. Imo
Quoting hydrus:
From the trough that is going to pull Mathew northward. According to some of the mets. This is a deep one.


I wonder how the storm will rect to that.
2697. whs2012
It is so shocking that we have not had 1 US landfall this entire hurricane season. Good, but shocking...
2698. hydrus
Quoting brainpimp:


That HWRF model is disconcerting.
Why is it disconcerting? Please BrainPimp, Thrill the blog with your acumen and pimp-NESS.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Alex - HIT

Bonnie - HIT

Colin - MISS

Danielle - MISS

Earl - HIT

Fiona - DIED

Gaston - DIED

Hermine - HIT

Igor - HIT

JULIA - MISS

Karl - HIT

Lisa - MISS
Wouldn't give me more pleasure to chime in and write the book for Matthew...but it'd be WAY to early for that. lol.

And yes, he would be a "DIED" over the highlands of Central America :)
2700. HCW
Quoting whs2012:
It is so shocking that we have not had 1 US landfall this entire hurricane season. Good, but shocking...


Bonnie made landfall as a TS

Hermine came really close...
Complete Update

Lisa - Same same... Nada.

95L - OMG!!



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting CJ5:
95L doesn't look anymore organized this am. If it doesn't get some decent structure soon, I would not expect it to have any impact on the gulf coast.


A lot of warm water between it and the Gulf Coast. But, it has to survive a tour of the CA coast first.

Hopefully, HWRF is out to lunch. ;-)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

Lisa - Same same... Nada.

95L - OMG!!



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Lol Look at that CAT 5
wow big change in the models. it looks as though 95l will turn south before entering the gulf. sigh of relief. i really don't think it would turn out to be much anyway. is that a ull just to the n and e of 95l? or is that just a burst of dry air moving through?
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Look at that CAT 5


That would be where the OMG came from :)
the clouds in the western carib. seem to be trying to organize alittle bit
2710. whs2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Bonnie made landfall as a TS

Hermine came really close...


Yeah, but Bonnie doesn't really count lol. Alex came really close too, but he still didn't make a landfall. And even still, we have not had 1 US hurricane landfall. And still that is shocking.
2690. TropicalAnalystwx13 8:51 AM EDT on September 23, 2010

I apologize for the error below (and the folks in Texas) affected by some of the earlier storms in the season..........:)
Quoting whs2012:
It is so shocking that we have not had 1 US landfall this entire hurricane season. Good, but shocking...


So tired of correcting you guys. Bonnie???
2713. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wonder how the storm will rect to that.
Good question.. My best guess is it will be similar to Wilma. Or maybe the 1873 storm. Yes the 95L track will be further south, but you can tell a trough picked it up and pulled it N.E.
2714. shawn26
I know everyone has been model watching for days now, like I have been. We all know these models will drastically change in the next couple of days once they get a better ahndle on the storm. It will be very interesting. I just don't see how this storm does not come north.
after 95L, the models aren't really spinning up anything else in the coming days are they?

2716. scott39
Quoting sarahjola:
wow big change in the models. it looks as though 95l will turn south before entering the gulf. sigh of relief. i really don't think it would turn out to be much anyway. is that a ull just to the n and e of 95l? or is that just a burst of dry air moving through?
You must have not have gotten the Memo about the trough coming down and busting a hole in the ridge to still possibly turn 95L N.
Expect TS Watches for the Yuctan to go up later today
Good morning.

Why isn't anyone talking about Lisa? j/k =)

The recon is scheduled for 10:30 am, I believe?
I don't know exactly what qualifications the CROWN WX man has, but here is his post.
LINK

I really hope this doesn't go into C AMERICA, but I really hope it doesn't hit anyone.
But Those people just CAN NOT afford rain. Mudslides and flooding would be terrible.
If it doesn't become a TD before then, we might have a retired INVEST! lol
(I know not really.)
2719. divdog
man nowadays if you set your filter to good nearly 70% of todays posters disappear. Now that is a pretty sad statement for this blog. Maybe its all the cat5 is going to hit south florida nauseum.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good morning.

Why isn't anyone talking about Lisa? j/k =)

The recon is scheduled for 10:30 am, I believe?
I don't know exactly what qualifications the CROWN WX man has, but here is his post.
LINK

I really hope this doesn't go into C AMERICA, but I really hope it doesn't hit anyone.
But Those people just CAN NOT afford rain. Mudslides and flooding would be terrible.
If it doesn't become a TD before then, we might have a retired INVEST! lol
(I know not really.)


You sure you don't have your systems mixed up?





Sorry, missed the j/k part
Morning All

These models are flopping around like a freshly caught wahoo. As expected at this stage in the game. The main difference from days past is much less time over CA.
Quoting whs2012:


Yeah, but Bonnie doesn't really count lol. Alex came really close too, but he still didn't make a landfall. And even still, we have not had 1 US hurricane landfall. And still that is shocking.
Wx mod 2010 :)
Quoting hydrus:
From the trough that is going to pull Mathew northward. According to some of the mets. This is a deep one.

my nws says weak front but still pulls it north
2724. divdog
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Expect TS Watches for the Yuctan to go up later today
dont we need a storm first ??
2725. HCW
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good morning.

Why isn't anyone talking about Lisa? j/k =)

The recon is scheduled for 10:30 am, I believe?
I don't know exactly what qualifications the CROWN WX man has, but here is his post.
LINK

I really hope this doesn't go into C AMERICA, but I really hope it doesn't hit anyone.
But Those people just CAN NOT afford rain. Mudslides and flooding would be terrible.
If it doesn't become a TD before then, we might have a retired INVEST! lol
(I know not really.)
Believe it or not, Julia's back in the picture. Her remnants warranted a %10 chance bubble by the NHC at 8AM EST.

Yeah...it's a tough call, but central america sure doesn't need that type of storm if he develops & hit there. But keep us posted w/ the Recon stuff though!
Quoting BobinTampa:
after 95L, the models aren't really spinning up anything else in the coming days are they?



Yesterday the GFS had Nicole tooling around in the W Caribbean then GOM in 10 days. Haven't checked today's runs yet.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All

These models are flopping around like a freshly caught wahoo. As expected at this stage in the game. The main difference from days past is much less time over CA.
lol. morning
2729. scott39
Quoting HCW:
Looks like those are going farther W, which will shift the path of N then NE, if it even gets in the GOM.
Quoting divdog:
dont we need a storm first ??


Not necessarily. If they think the conditions will be present within the timeframe, they will issue the Watch before the storm is classified.
2731. divdog
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Not necessarily. If they think the conditions will be present within the timeframe, that will issue the Watch before the storm is classified.
don't believe that will be the case. nhc would not want to issue a watch and have the storm not form. would be a field day for the nhc bashers that are just waiting for a chance to rag on the nhc.
2732. breald
Morning All! It looks like the track is starting to shift more and more towards a central America storm.
2733. scott39
If we could just get a NHC cone of doom!!
Quoting hydrus:
Good question.. My best guess is it will be similar to Wilma. Or maybe the 1873 storm. Yes the 95L track will be further south, but you can tell a trough picked it up and pulled it N.E.


Hey hydrus.

Still going with a blend of Hurricane #4 1877, Hurricane #4 1887, Florida Keys Hurricane 1906, and Hurricane Isbell 1964...

So far, the last one seems the most spot on.
Quoting breald:
Morning All! It looks like the track is starting to shift more and more towards a central America storm.


If that happens, they'll probably just close the blog for the weekend.
I think if the front is not deep to pull it n then ne..It could be in the gulf drifting around a couple of days waiting for the next front...that high still hanging...Also it could cross the Yucatan then get pulled ne...
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Believe it or not, Julia's back in the picture. Her remnants warranted a %10 chance bubble by the NHC at 8AM EST.

Yeah...it's a tough call, but central america sure doesn't need that type of storm if he develops & hit there. But keep us posted w/ the Recon stuff though!


True, but I was talking about Lisa. Which I guess is not TD Lisa.
Just a joke. =)

Ocrasystems posted a image in number 2720 showing RECON on its way.
If they find a TD will they do a special advisory or not?
Quoting breald:
Morning All! It looks like the track is starting to shift more and more towards a central America storm.
morning. yep...that's the good new for the CONUS, but bad for Central America (esp Honduras). Double-edged sword.
Quoting Cotillion:


Hey hydrus.

Still going with a blend of Hurricane #4 1877, Hurricane #4 1887, Florida Keys Hurricane 1906, and Hurricane Isbell 1964...

So far, the last one seems the most spot on.


you wouldnt happen to have tracks for those would ya? :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Bonnie made landfall as a TS

Hermine came really close...
i remember when i was a kid tropical storms being much more than bonnie ever was. i felt embarrassed for people who had to call bonnie a tropical storm. i think the strongest wind gust i got in se.la. was about 4mph. lol! we didn't get but 1 shower. it wasn't even a downpour. i have seen more rain and wind from moisture being pulled in from the gulf than with t.s. bonnie. over the last say 15 yrs. or so did they lower the wind speed or amount of convection for a t.s.? or do wind and rain have little to do with a system being called a t.s. and holding that status? thanks in advance
Quoting breald:
Morning All! It looks like the track is starting to shift more and more towards a central America storm.

scrape actually
2742. breald
Quoting BobinTampa:


If that happens, they'll probably just close the blog for the weekend.



LOL.
Quoting divdog:
don't believe that will be the case. nhc would not want to issue a watch and have the storm not form. would be a field day for the nhc bashers that are just waiting for a chance to rag on the nhc.


Uh, you really said that didn't you? Sure, they would hold off - I mean, what's a few hundred lives when there is a chance a blogger might bash you.
2744. whs2012
Also, it seems there will be a extra-tropical storm, cold low storm, moving into the eastern seaboard. That could weaken the ridge some, and likely at the same time, drop a trough over the offshore waters of the eastern CONUS coast, which could pull the system towards Florida or the Bahamas. If that trough is not pronounced enough, but the ridge over the south central CONUS states weaken or moves, then the possible tropical cyclone would more likely move towards the eastern or central GOMEX states.
Quoting scott39:
If we could just get a NHC cone of doom!!
Like the massive one Igor had when he was way up there. That was HUGE! lol
2746. beell
I'm in love w/Julia at 32N 37W!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Trop. Atl RGB Loop
lol bonnie died before moving into la
With the new models now going west does it mean Florida is safe? I do hope so.
2749. swlavp
.
Quoting BobinTampa:


If that happens, they'll probably just close the blog for the weekend.
LMAO
LINK

Isbell 1964. I never here stories about ISBELL, that's weird. It went right over us, granted I was not born but a cat 4, I thought I would have known
2752. whs2012
Quoting Floridaweathergirl:
With the new models now going west does it mean Florida is safe? I do hope so.


Not necessarily, the models are going to continue to shift...until they form a nice consensus over a period of time, then the track is not guaranteed.
2753. breald
Quoting btwntx08:

scrape actually


Google map shows a lot of tracks right into Central America. Hopefully it falls apart over the rugged terrain.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


True, but I was talking about Lisa. Which I guess is not TD Lisa.
Just a joke. =)

Ocrasystems posted a image in number 2720 showing RECON on its way.
If they find a TD will they do a special advisory or not?
yep...they would bounce in & break the new I believe.
Good morning everyone

The HH will soon tell us if we have a TD or not but based upon the 850 vort, winds on the Guajira peninsula and the overall presentation of the system on satellite I would venture to guess that we have a closed circulation and 35 mph winds. It is conceivable it might go straight to TS as there will be some very strong winds in those deep thunderstorms.

The aircraft still has a couple of hours flying time so stand by for the data.
models looking split, not being a"wishcaster" either. i dont find a major hurricane heading towards a large city funny ..

another issue of timing
Quoting cat5hurricane:
yep...they would bounce in & break the new I believe.


A special TWO?
2758. shawn26
http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/images/2010/clark15latest.png


Florida does not look safe to me yet.
Quoting kmanislander:
...The aircraft still has a couple of hours flying time so stand by for the data.


Mornin' Kman

I'll have to check it out when I wake up. Been up since yesterday morning sometime. Definitely getting too old for these all-nighters.
Looks like we are going to have trouble here in Belize. Time to get out the shutters.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
LINK

Isbell 1964. I never here stories about ISBELL, that's weird. It went right over us, granted I was not born but a cat 4, I thought I would have known


It was a Cat 3.

As said yesterday, only 1964 hurricane to hit as a major - yet, not retired (Cleo, Dora and Hilda were, though).

--

Hurricane #4, 1877

Hurricane #4, 1887

Hurricane #8, 1906

The first two are too high up in the US landfall, but show the proximity in the Central America track. The third shows the rest better, though shows it going more into Central America than currently thought (as well as the loop back not making much sense atm).

As said, if it does curl up towards Florida, Isbell's not far off.

It may just die in Central America - who knows.

And sounds like the first T-storm of the day starts.
Quoting scott39:
You must have not have gotten the Memo about the trough coming down and busting a hole in the ridge to still possibly turn 95L N.
yes i do know about that, but my comment was about the model change from going n. to curving south now. all things are possible with weather, but i was just looking and commenting on models. they were pretty good with developing this system, and i am hoping they are doing good with the possible path now that its pointing south at the end of model run. do you think maybe the models are picking up on the trough pushing this system south? what do you think the models are picking up on that makes the system turn south at the end? thanks in advance
well these scrape
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Mornin' Kman

I'll have to check it out when I wake up. Been up since yesterday morning sometime. Definitely getting too old for these all-nighters.


Wow. It's been a while since I tried that LOL
2766. mac3821
Morning folks, I know the models show tracks for 95l but I feel like at this point the meteorologists have a better feel for what this storm will do (should it develop). Models tend to have problems with tracks when there is no real formation yet. JMO

If this develops soon would this somewhat go against the John Hope rule?
2767. hydrus
1877 was a strong storm.
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow. It's been a while since I tried that LOL


It's highly overrated. Youth has a way of skewing perception.
I'll be back when the aircraft starts making passes thru the system
Quoting BobinTampa:


If that happens, they'll probably just close the blog for the weekend.


In so much shell shock they'll think their Ethel Merman.
2772. tacoman
the ones that are in the line of fire is the hondouras and belieze areas...they need to take precautions because THEY WILL EXPERIENCE THE FULL BRUNT OF THIS HURRICANE..yes you read it right HURRICANE...this thing will continue to move westwarrd and die in the mountains..hopefully won't affect anyone else...
Once 95L reaches the NWCarib the steering currents will be very weak for a period of time until the trough takes over. Models have a very hard time with that, look at the models for Lisa past couple days when she was barely moving. Where 95L decides to stop is the big ?

There are equal chances of a storm dying over CA and a Major spinning up in the Gulf of Honduras.
Quoting Floridaweathergirl:
With the new models now going west does it mean Florida is safe? I do hope so.


Actually NO....means the West Coast of Florida is more likely and the PanHandle area .....before there was a chance of Matty going out to sea. That does not seem likely now.
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


A special TWO?
If it merits the upgrade to a TD, then yep.
2776. divdog
Quoting btwntx08:
well these scrape
and plenty go into ca and several cross the yucatan and some even head toward the pacific.. not just a scrape.
2777. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning everyone

The HH will soon tell us if we have a TD or not but based upon the 850 vort, winds on the Guajira peninsula and the overall presentation of the system on satellite I would venture to guess that we have a closed circulation and 35 mph winds. It is conceivable it might go straight to TS as there will be some very strong winds in those deep thunderstorms.

The aircraft still has a couple of hours flying time so stand by for the data.
Good morning K-Man. One thing is certain, when it finally reaches the Western Caribbean, and does not go ashore, it will rapidly intensify..I have never seen the Western Caribbean that warm.
2778. Livyer
A preliminary estimate by provincial government officials puts the damage caused by Igor above $100 million.

A story and images (including some aerial video of one road washout) are available at:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2010/09/23/igor-stranded-cleanup-923.html
Check out vis sat and watch the direction the low level clouds are moving near the Yucatan. They're moving NW... this is a good indication of the path Matthew will take.

I expect Matthew will cross at the tip of Nicaragua/Honduras, and then begin a northwestwardly movement clipping, or barely inland over the tip of the Yucatan. Afterwards, it appears to me just from looking at a few sats, that it's likely to get shunted sharply eastward while being sheared. I think the most likely scenario is The very southern tip of Florida as a weak hurricane.

Just keep an eye on what the band of convergence in front of 95l is doing. The track is laid out right in front of you on satellite if you get your attention off the computer models for a sec!
ughh only a couple go in and thats the bamms models most are scraping then moving north
Quoting Livyer:
A preliminary estimate by provincial government officials puts the damage caused by Igor above $100 million.

A story and images (including some aerial video of one road washout) are available at:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2010/09/23/igor-stranded-cleanup-923.html
WOW
2782. tacoman
mathew once it develops will cause flash flooding and land slides for the central america with up to copious amounts of rainfall...could reach in the mountains up to 25 inches of rain...this is a dangerous situation for the belieze area...
2783. shawn26
I am really looking forward to Levi's point of view today.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines
2787. hydrus
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Check out vis sat and watch the direction the low level clouds are moving near the Yucatan. They're moving NW... this is a good indication of the path Matthew will take.

I expect Matthew will cross at the tip of Nicaragua/Honduras, and then begin a northwestwardly movement clipping, or barely inland over the tip of the Yucatan. Afterwards, it appears to me just from looking at a few sats, that it's likely to get shunted sharply eastward while being sheared. I think the most likely scenario is The very southern tip of Florida as a weak hurricane.

Just keep an eye on what the band of convergence in front of 95l is doing. The track is laid out right in front of you on satellite if you get your attention off the computer models for a sec!
I believe the stronger 95L gets, the further north it will go. So if it starts to strengthen quickly, it will miss Central America and head towards the Yucatan.
It's all starting to come together

Low level convergence & 850mb Vorticity

Quoting hydrus:
I believe the stronger 95L gets, the further north it will go. So if it starts to strengthen quickly, it will miss Central America and head towards the Yucatan.
Yeah, that is possible because it looks like if it stayed at its CURRENT intensity, it would barely scrape the edge of Nicaragua.
2793. Dakster
Quoting divdog:
dont we need a storm first ??


Well... No. You can get a TS Watch from disturbed weather that could develope into a TS by landfall.

But in general it would make sense that we should have something, before we warn about it hitting somewhere. Makes me think of the unnamed 2000 TS that hit South Florida...
2794. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
TD at 11.

Tenacious D is playing tonight? Sweet.
Although the BAM models say go west young man....I don't know that it will ever come toward the GOM?

And, can we come up with a blog geological term for the tip of the nicaragua/honduras border please? It sucks having to write that out every time I refer to that area.
Regarding the 95L, I am interested to hear what Dr. Masters has to say. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported the following:

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. (NHC, 2010)

Reference

National Hurricane Center. (NHC). (2010),
Tropical weather outlook. Retrieved from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
2798. MahFL
On the vis sat you can see a curving band on the south side now, so it must be closed low.
2799. hydrus
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
And, can we come up with a blog geological term for the tip of the nicaragua/honduras border please? It sucks having to write that out every time I refer to that area.
Nic/Hon border..?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
And, can we come up with a blog geological term for the tip of the nicaragua/honduras border please? It sucks having to write that out every time I refer to that area.


Could say (Northern) Mosquito Coast. It encompasses that border (though it's larger).
Quoting hydrus:
Nic/Hon border..?
No, because that would describe the entire border... what is just the tip of it called? It's not really a peninsula, but more like a corner.
wow! i see a lot of panic. 95l is just an invest, and last i looked it didn't seem to be developing too fast. its definitely getting its act together, but it is still just an invest and at best a t.s.. as many people have been posting we have to let it become a storm first. these models have been shifting for a week now, and while i feel like the models are pretty good, this thing could just die out like others have done before. i asked this question earlier but no one answered- is that a ull to the n. and e. of 95l? is it just dry air bursting into the Caribbean? thanks in advance
Quoting DestinJeff:
Need more Wilma loops people!

This thing isn't going to just will itself into a Threater. It needs some example tracks to follow, perhaps a few images of other storms so it will know how to look.

How can 95L be expected to know which storm to emulate without some Blog guidance? It is the weather, people, not like it just happens automatically!



You are so funny.. that's right, we need to see wall to wall Wilma graphics! LOL

bbl

2807. HCW
Quoting sarahjola:
wow! i see a lot of panic. 95l is just an invest, and last i looked it didn't seem to be developing too fast. its definitely getting its act together, but it is still just an invest and at best a t.s.. as many people have been posting we have to let it become a storm first. these models have been shifting for a week now, and while i feel like the models are pretty good, this thing could just die out like others have done before. i asked this question earlier but no one answered- is that a ull to the n. and e. of 95l? is it just dry air bursting into the Caribbean? thanks in advance


Yes it is an ULL. It will be interesting to see if it interacts with Matthew. If it stays far enough away it could actually aid in creating a nice outflow channel to its NE.
Quoting sarahjola:
wow! i see a lot of panic. 95l is just an invest, and last i looked it didn't seem to be developing too fast. its definitely getting its act together, but it is still just an invest and at best a t.s.. as many people have been posting we have to let it become a storm first. these models have been shifting for a week now, and while i feel like the models are pretty good, this thing could just die out like others have done before. i asked this question earlier but no one answered- is that a ull to the n. and e. of 95l? is it just dry air bursting into the Caribbean? thanks in advance
It's an ull that is actually enhancing 95l's convection atm.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Although the BAM models say go west young man....I don't know that it will ever come toward the GOM?

I'm still not buying the more northernly tracks. Have a feeling it'll dock either in Honduras (a scrape of direct hit) or be paying Belize a visit. Flooding would be a concern there then if it does.
2812. Dakster
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No, because that would describe the entire border... what is just the tip of it called? It's not really a peninsula, but more like a corner.


Cabo Gracis A Dios is close to the "corner"... I don;t think that is any easier to type out though.
2813. WxLogic
Winds getting a bit "gusty" as it approaches 95L.
Quoting FLdewey:

Tenacious D is playing tonight? Sweet.

The legend of 95L was WAY HARDCORE!
Im not sold on 95L surviving Nicaragua and moving into the GOM.

I feel its more likely that it will die over the Yucatan.

We'll see how the trough looks in a day or two.
system is starting to look like a shrimp reaching out drawing in energy
Or Coco River Delta.

That's basically at the 'point' of the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
2818. WxLogic
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Organization is improving a bit more since earlier today.
Looks like if it is closed we will go straight for Matthew... already having 40 knt surface winds
Quoting Dakster:


Cabo Gracis A Dios is close to the "corner"... I don;t think that is any easier to type out though.
lol. uhhh.... How about we just call it "The Corner." After all, do we have another corner that we'd confuse it with? I don't think so.
Quoting weatherguy03:


Yes it is an ULL. It will be interesting to see if it interacts with Matthew. If it stays far enough away it could actually aid in creating a nice outflow channel to its NE.


Yep it could for sure help to Vent the system during the beginning. Gotta see how this plays out as NO ONE knows now Except the good man above and MOther Nature might not have told him!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Im not sold on 95L surviving Nicaragua and moving into the GOM.

I feel its more likely that it will die over the Yucatan.

We'll see how the trough looks in a day or two.
me too. agreed
2825. IKE
The speed at which 95L is moving, it should be approaching Honduras in about a day.
2826. hydrus
Here ya go. Check out the NCEP...If this happens, Florida gets two big storms....Link
Quoting cat5hurricane:
me too. agreed



Yeah, most said that about Alex. RIP Mathew lmao
We need a new Blog from jeff :(





2829. NASA101
Quoting cat5hurricane:
me too. agreed


most likely!

Gonna get pounded for this but tis may be the season where we probably won't many US hits in an above average year!
Quoting DestinJeff:
For those of you just joining in...

Blog DOOMCON level is 4.

Repeat, blog is currently at DOOMCON 4.

*The DOOMCON system operates on an inverse 5-tier structure. DOOMCON authorities use the criteria set forth in WikiLeaks to assess DOOM conditions, and arbitrarily change the level without regard to said criteria.


So, what would it be if we had, say, a WILMA scenario? Obviously, the blog has got it's head in the clouds at this point, but I think conditions will soon force it to warm up to the idea.
2831. Times2
Models shift right...models ship left. Remember they react to info that is fed into them. 95L is not rapidly developing. The model confusion is the timing of the trough and the track whether it is more of a southerly one. The speed at which storms move related to troughs when they are a factor is important. This trough may ultimately not affect 95L. No one has really talked about the possibility of 95L reaching the BOC. I think that is just as possible as any other scenario.
New Blog
2833. WxLogic
Current 12Z Steering:

Quoting mcluvincane:



Yeah, most said that about Alex. RIP Mathew lmao


The spot where 95L will cross is completely different from where Alex did.

Alex was also a strong TS at the time.
2835. Jax82
ok ok ok

Nicaragua geography 101:
The eastern Caribbean lowlands of Nicaragua form the extensive (occupying more than 50 percent of national territory) and still sparsely settled lowland area known as Costa de Mosquitos. The Caribbean lowlands are sometimes considered synonymous with the former department of Zelaya, which is now divided into the North Atlantic Autonomous Region (Región Autonomista Atlántico Norte) and the South Atlantic Autonomous Region (Región Autonomista Atlántico Sur) and constitutes about 45 percent of Nicaragua's territory. These lowlands are a hot, humid area that includes coastal plains, the eastern spurs of the central highlands, and the lower portion of the Río San Juan basin.

Link
thanks for the feedback guys. so this could be good or bad, right? this ull catches up to 95l and disrupts it like the ull have done all season long or this could help it develop and move it in a certain direction. my question is what direction and why? if the ull stays above it would it pull it more north? if the ull gets ahead of 95l would it pull it more west? if the ull and 95l crash would it tear 95l apart? just wanting to know what i should be looking for. i am pretty sure that this ull will play a role with 95l. but who knows?
lol how can it die in the yucatan if this becomes a cat 4 that wouldnt get killed at most cat 1 coming out anyways i disagree about that
2839. NASA101
Quoting Times2:
Models shift right...models ship left. Remember they react to info that is fed into them. 95L is not rapidly developing. The model confusion is the timing of the trough and the track whether it is more of a southerly one. The speed at which storms moves related to troughs when they are a factor is important. This trough may ultimately not affect 95L. No one has really talked about the possibility of 95L reaching the BOC. I think that is just as possible as any other scenario.


agreed! Right now, this is as much as a South TX storm as FL or Mexico
2840. tacoman
great update bob im on board with your thinking...it could be devastating for beleize...i dont see no way out for these people...bob we need to kill this thing over the mountains and not affect anyone else...if it stews in the bay we have big problems..could be a cat 3 heading north in the gom next week...in that case we need to turn it towards fla we sure dont want this thing on the central gom..everything is very peaceful now lets keep it like that...



Steering map shows exactly what will happen. AS the deep trough approaches the West side of the High will and it will break down and allow a Northerly move. Just what i see.


Vorticity at 850 is stacked very well already


It has good Divergence aided somewhat by the ULL


Convergence has changed a lot as there was nothing there at 2am.

What does all this mean. We will have a TD by 5pm if not before and will likely track WNW toward the Yucatan. After that a more Northerly Movement is likely as the High on the West side breaks down. Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this.
2842. Times2
Quoting WxLogic:
Current 12Z Steering:


Care to expand on this??
2843. HCW
Watch for the renumber :) This will be a Mexican or FL storm I don't see how it could effect Texas or the central Gulf Coast
2844. cmahan
Quoting Livyer:
A preliminary estimate by provincial government officials puts the damage caused by Igor above $100 million.

A story and images (including some aerial video of one road washout) are available at:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2010/09/23/igor-stranded-cleanup-923.html


Those are astounding pictures. It sounds like cleanup will take quite a while :(
Quoting DestinJeff:
For those of you just joining in...

Blog DOOMCON level is 4.

Repeat, blog is currently at DOOMCON 4.

*The DOOMCON system operates on an inverse 5-tier structure. DOOMCON authorities use the criteria set forth in WikiLeaks to assess DOOM conditions, and arbitrarily change the level without regard to said criteria.


You work for the DHS, don't you?
2846. tacoman
i think the central gom is in the clear with that cut off low sitting right on top of us it looks like its flas baby...they can handle it better then we can...
Quoting TampaSpin:



Steering map shows exactly what will happen. AS the deep trough approaches the West side of the High will and it will break down and allow a Northerly move. Just what i see.


Vorticity at 850 is stacked very well already


It has good Divergence aided somewhat by the ULL


Convergence has changed a lot as there was nothing there at 2am.

What does all this mean. We will have a TD by 5pm if not before and will likely track WNW toward the Yucatan. After that a more Northerly Movement is likely as the High on the West side breaks down. Anywhere from Texas to Florida needs to watch this.

thanks for the update ts anyways moving on to the new blog
2848. tacoman
my thinking right now and its a long ways off tampa is well overdue for a major hurricane and i think matthew has its eye on tampa...i cant see it going anywhere else once it gets in the gom if the cut off low is over the central gom...lets hope this happens and we will be out of the woods...
Quoting HCW:
Watch for the renumber :) This will be a Mexican or FL storm I don't see how it could effect Texas or the central Gulf Coast

dude there not even close to being out of it
2850. HCW
2851. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Glad to see the model shifts...looks like the shield over Tampa Bay is still in place. Hopefully it will just die out over CA.
2853. HCW
2854. HCW
Quoting Greenizz:
Glad to see the model shifts...looks like the shield over Tampa Bay is still in place. Hopefully it will just die out over CA.


The Flood gates are open for Tampa to easily get hit from Mathew and another system right behind it . Don't let your guard down :)
2855. HCW
Quoting btwntx08:

dude there not even close to being out of it


Can somebody please tell me the last October storm that hit Texas ?
Quoting Jax82:
ok ok ok



I know that's Wilma. But I completely forgot it did that. Such a neat loop. Thanks for posting!
Found some west winds...

And their hygrometer (measures dewpoint) must be busted??? No WAY there's mid 50 dewpoints at 500 feet in the deep Caribbean with a tropical wave and moisture pouring in also from the Epac...

14:18:30Z 13.300N 75.317W 990.5 mb
(~ 29.25 inHg) 155 meters
(~ 509 feet) 1008.4 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 259° at 7 knots
(From the W at ~ 8.0 mph) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 13.5°C
(~ 56.3°F)
8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) 6 knots*
(~ 6.9 mph*) 3 mm/hr*
(~ 0.12 in/hr*) 5.2 knots* (~ 6.0 mph*)
75.0%*
Quoting tacoman:
my thinking right now and its a long ways off tampa is well overdue for a major hurricane and i think matthew has its eye on tampa...i cant see it going anywhere else once it gets in the gom if the cut off low is over the central gom...lets hope this happens and we will be out of the woods...

Taco, how about we don't wishcast anything towards Florida. NO, we are NOT better equipted to handle a storm. We do NOT want a storm. Actually, I just wish it would disappear and not hit any land area. That being said, Tampa does not need a storm...neither does the Gulf Coast or Texas. Unfortunately, it looks like there may be a US landfall and we are all hoping it goes anywhere else but where we live. Florida does not need or want a storm, neither does Mexico, Texas, Louisianna, Mississippi, or any other populated land mass. IMO
We never let the guard down as storms are so unpredictable and after surviving Hugo I stay alert, but it seems whenever the models show Tampa Bay at the start they always shift away from us.
2860. swlavp
...
NEW BLOG!