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Ida's remnants pounding North and South Carolina; El Salvador flooding toll at 160

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:06 PM GMT on November 11, 2009

The remnants of Tropical Storm Ida have pushed off the coast of Georgia, and are adding fuel to a developing extratropical storm that is pounding North and South Carolina with heavy rain and high winds. Over two inches of rain has fallen across much of the region, and NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (Figure 1) predicts that up to eight inches of rain could fall in coastal North Carolina by Saturday. Adding to the rainwater flooding problems from all this rain will be coastal flooding from tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph expected to build tonight through Thursday along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. High tides up to four feet above normal are expected from the strong winds. North Carolina will end up getting a more severe pounding from Ida's remnants than Ida gave to the Gulf Coast. You can follow the storm with our Severe Weather Page.


Figure 1. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period ending at 7 am EST Saturday November 14, 2009. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Invest 98L no threat
Another extratropical storm (Invest 98L), currently spinning over the Atlantic a few hundred miles northwest of Puerto Rico, is showing no signs of development, and will be entering a region of very high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots on Thursday. It currently appears that 98L will swing northward and northeast out to sea on Friday and Saturday, and not merge with the extratropical remnants of Ida currently pounding North Carolina.

Gulf Coast cleans up after Ida
Tropical Storm Ida left mostly minor damage across the Gulf Coast, with the heaviest damage being reported on the west end of Alabama's Dauphin Island. Roads there were covered with sand and water, and moderate beach erosion was reported. At Gulf State Park at Orange Beach, Alabama, the new fishing pier--the longest on the Gulf of Mexico--suffered heavy damage, and will be closed indefinitely. The pier was replaced after being destroyed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and just opened in July. "We may have significant losses," said Phillip West, Orange Beach coastal resources manager, discussing beach erosion from Ida. "Not catastrophic or devastating, but significant."

In the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola, Ida washed huge amounts of sand over Fort Pickens Road in Gulf Islands National Seashore, and over heavily traveled J. Earle Bowden Way, which connects Pensacola and Navarre beaches. Both roads are closed indefinitely. Fort Pickens Road was washed out by Hurricane Opal in 1995, and moved to a new location. Hurricane Ivan washed the road out in 2004. It was rebuilt, but was destroyed and rebuilt three more times in 2005, thanks to Tropical Storm Arlene and Hurricanes Cindy and Dennis. The most recent rebuilding of the road put it at a lower elevation, to allow sand to wash over it. It is hoped the cost of this latest repair will be under $1 million.

Editorial comment: perhaps having a low-lying road along a barrier island that regularly washes out, requiring millions in taxpayer repair money to fix, is a bad idea?? Seems to me like this is taxpayer money ill-spent. The 1988 Stafford Act, authorizing the rebuilding of damaged infrastructure after presidentially declared emergencies, has resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in taxpayer money being spent to rebuild infrastructure damaged by tropical storms and hurricanes on barrier islands. In an era of rising sea levels, and with the U.S. in the midst of an active hurricane period expected to last at least another decade, the Stafford Act just doesn't make sense. Those living in areas subject to a very high level of repeated coastal hazards should pay the bills for their willingness to live in harm's way, rather than depending on Uncle Sam.

In a interview in the New York Times after the last time Fort Pickens Road was washed out, Dr. Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus in the Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke University and author of the excellent 2009 book The Rising Sea, said, "People say, 'What are you going to do, let the road fall in? The correct answer, of course, is yes."

Food shortages in El Salvador after floods kill at least 160
A tropical disturbance that dumped up to 17.4" (442 mm) of rain in 24 hours over central El Salvador on Sunday has triggered the need for urgent food aid after flood and landslides destroyed huge swaths of crops during harvest season, according to the U.N. World Food Program. The storm killed at leat 160 people, with dozens more still missing. About 13,000 people are homeless after the disaster.


Figure 2. Collapsed bridge at Santa Cruz La Libertad, El Salvador, with people trying to cross the river. Image credit: Wunderphotographer DiegoSagrera

For those interested in making a donation to assist in disaster relief for El Salvador, Portlight.org has a Paypal donation page set up for this. All funds raised will be forwarded to José Luis Escobar Alas, Catholic Archbishop of San Salvador, and used to assist flooding victims at the discretion of the Archbishop.

Jeff Masters
Ida on Tuesday Pensacola Beach Pier
Ida on Tuesday Pensacola Beach Pier
Tuesday morning as Ida passes through.

Hurricane Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Weather 456 Update:

Weather 456 had complications with the Flu, he suspects that he will be back in the land of the living by the weekend.
Anyone: Have not seen Weather456's informative blog. Have been away for a couple of days. Is all well with him?
Good morning,the mid-Atlantic looks to bear the brunt of this thing.Although all our forecasters who said this wasn't coming up to new england are back tracking fast this morning.
More on the flooding can be found here:

http://hamptonroads.com/2009/11/streets-flooded-midtown-tunnel-closed-wake-storm
Good Morning From Douglasville GA
Current Conditions


Tanglewood, Mableton, Georgia (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 54 sec ago
49.3 °F
Clear
Windchill: 49 °F
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 46 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Pressure: 29.95 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

I hope all are doing well on the East coast. We have some moderate flooding here. Nothing like September's flood so damage should be minimal.
Conditions at CBBV2 as of
(8:54 am EST)

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 55.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 55.4 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 62.8 °F

Conditions at CHYV2 as of
(9:00 am EST)

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 45.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 53.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 55.2 °F
Good morning all.
Nice temp. outside this morning here in SFL, maybe the start of nice weather down here!
Get well soon 456, you are missed!
Good Evening all, How is everyone one going to Ex-Ida and the W GOMEX low? I hope just a bit of rain but not a lot of wind.

It got to 36C(96F) here in Sydney followed by a pretty nice thunderstorm. Have had a week of pure blue sky. Now would be the perfect time to come to Sydney for a holiday.

Cheers AussieStorm
This nor'easter by the way is being known as a disaster for the Mid-Atlantic Coastline. Wind gusts over hurricane force, the worst storm in 25 years for them. Sustained winds could rise to 55-60 mph. as well as the storm grows along the coastline. I don't think that is a doomcast when other weather stations are reporting this, certainly not a wishcast, my prayers go out to those getting battered by EX-Ida.
24-hour forecast for my area(Everett,PA):

Today:Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain. Highs in the upper 40's with winds NE at 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 25%.

Tonight:Partly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain. Lows in the mid 30's with winds NE at 5 to 15 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20%.

(This forecast was created by averaging 3 weather forecasts[NWS,Accuweather,Weather.com]}
Reed, as I said, only far northern NC is really gonna feel much more than a regular noreaster out of this. This is not a disaster for SC/NC in general.
Quoting largeeyes:
Reed, as I said, only far northern NC is really gonna feel much more than a regular noreaster out of this. This is not a disaster for SC/NC in general.


Yeah I just saw more stuff about it, guess the Carolinas won't get much out of this, it's Virginia that will get the pounding, thanks for the clarification.
man it is nasty out here...pouring with wind coming off the river 20mph or so...river is up multiple feet...went over to the hopewell city marina and snapped a few photos..as well as city point...rt. 10 coming into hopewell will most likely be closing due to high water on the northern side of the hardaway bridges....the river is already up to the road (which ive only seen happen once with isabell...)usually the river is 4-6 feet below the road...a lot of road closures in the area...traffic is nasty in some spots and we still got till tomorrow till idas mess is out of here...should be an interesting night...ill post some of the photos here shortly...
PEAK WIND GUST (MPH)

CBBV2 (CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL VA) 64
CHYV2 (CAPE HENRY VA) 64
KORF (NORFOLK VA) 59
KWAL (WALLOPS VA) 56
PORTSMOUTH (VA) 55
KNTU (OCEANA VA) 52


Somebody is getting wet. Looks like it is moving more north than NE. Can anybody post an animated image of the area??
Ummm, methinks there will be some folks that wish they were not wading around in their house.
Ya have to know your house has the possibility of flooding and get out for a day. Otherwise you become a "victim" (of what?) and need to be "rescued".


Caption: Cynthia Firth of Poquoson surveys her newly-created "waterfront property" from the front steps of her home on Lodge Road early Thursday morning.

Like I said, Poquoson will be flooding.
Link

Here is a link of the animated image. Anyone want to take a guess as to the movement of the system. This may wake up the blog for a few minutes. East, no North, no Northeast, no Southeast!!! Come on, put on your observations.
Quoting Grothar:
Link

Here is a link of the animated image. Anyone want to take a guess as to the movement of the system. This may wake up the blog for a few minutes. East, no North, no Northeast, no Southeast!!! Come on, put on your observations.

It is moving up, vertically.
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR REMNANTS OF IDA

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST...OR 70
MILES...115 KM...EAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ERRATICALLY OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.30 INCHES.
Sorry I missed doing this yesterday:

Happy Veteran's Day! Thank you so much for serving our country. My father was an Air Force aircraft mechanic in Vietnam and many of my wife's relatives served in various arms of the military so I very much appreciate the sacrifice made by all those in the armed services for all of us.

Thanks again!
Cat 1 area (in red)? Will flood (or already has).

Best diplomatic response of the day. Good way to stay safe. How are you atmoaggie? Seems everyone is otherwise occupied. Flew over ex-Ida last night. Very bumpy ride.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR REMNANTS OF IDA

Love seeing the word ERRATICALLY in a NWS posting...

Cat 1 surge areas, again, in red:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Sorry I missed doing this yesterday:

Happy Veteran's Day! Thank you so much for serving our country. My father was an Air Force aircraft mechanic in Vietnam and many of my wife's relatives served in various arms of the military so I very much appreciate the sacrifice made by all those in the armed services for all of us.

Thanks again!


You are very welcome. We all appreciate that. Funny thing though, most of us never looked at it as a sacrifice, but an honor! Thanks again for the kind thought, HJ.
IDA seems to ignore weather forecasters. I see some serious studying of this storm for years to come. Info might help with some new programming models. Maybe 1 day erratic can be predicted.
Melbourne Fla. Temp 60,Humidity 80%,wind speed 6.9mph gust 23 mph,wind dir.NNW,barometer 29.730 in.---Weather 456 praying for you,get well soon. you are missed! Can any one tell me if 456 is in hospital or at home? The H.R.H. ask all light workers to pray for 456. thankyou. star.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Love seeing the word ERRATICALLY in a NWS posting...

Cat 1 surge areas, again, in red:


Doesn't erratic mean, "We have no idea where it going and we are not sure until it actually hits something and if it doesn't go where we think it is going we covered ourselves by saying, we told you it was erratic!" I believe that is the definition.
Havelock and James City are only 10 miles apart. I live closer to Havelock than James City. Guess about 1" more than I thought. Seems to be all north of here now.

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
SWANSBORO 3.3 NW 9.26
SNEADS FERRY 1.5 S 8.57
NEWPORT 0.2 SW 8.15
HAVELOCK 1.8 W 7.12
MOREHEAD CITY 6.0 WNW 6.96
ELIZABETHTOWN 6.2 NW 6.85
TRENT WOODS 1.3 SSE 6.57
MIDDLESEX 5.5 SSW 6.55
JAMES CITY 2.5 S 6.36
RALEIGH 4.5 NNE 5.10
998mb is nothing to sneeze at.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Hey, Storm. When is your update coming?
Soggy morning to ya Storm
Quoting Grothar:
Best diplomatic response of the day. Good way to stay safe. How are you atmoaggie? Seems everyone is otherwise occupied. Flew over ex-Ida last night. Very bumpy ride.

Eh, not sure where everyone is. I am ok, but have work waiting for me that I don't want to do. (Trust me, this science guy really does not enjoy using a word processor)
Quoting litestar:
Melbourne Fla. Temp 60,Humidity 80%,wind speed 6.9mph gust 23 mph,wind dir.NNW,barometer 29.730 in.---Weather 456 praying for you,get well soon. you are missed! Can any one tell me if 456 is in hospital or at home? The H.R.H. ask all light workers to pray for 456. thankyou. star.
What happened to -456?
IDA sould get re name has a STS
Wow, that is a neat one:
Quoting StormW:
Probably around noon.


Dr. Masters must be as busy as you trying to get a fix on this system. Could you at least give a clue, so we can tear it apart before your actual post? We need a little action this morning. I haven't spoken much English in the past few months and I need to hone my debating skills.
Quoting hydrus:
What happened to -456?

Kissed a pig. I mean, got the flu.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, that is a neat one:


Ominous! What beach is that?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Kissed a pig. I mean, got the flu.
Couldnt he just find a date? :)
Quoting Grothar:


Ominous! What beach is that?

Aww, that is in Virginia, but I was deep into a photo gallery (without URLs, but scripting), now closed. Sorry.

This is looking not good. At about about low tide now, but 1.5 feet higher than the prediction. But, looking at the anomaly, the high tide has only been 0.5 to 1.0 foot above prediction for the last 3 cycles. If I get to pick, I'll take 0.5 feet above prediction rather than 1.0 or more.



L8R.
548. P451
Good Morning.

Long Branch, NJ
10am Nov 12 - Low Tide
Where I'm standing you can see all the sand is already carved out leaving the crap exposed from underneath.
I would be underwater here at high tide.
Most waves around 6'. Bigger ones were 8-10.
It will be getting worse but I won't be going to film it.


Two videos of waves (90 seconds each)


http://tinypic.com/r/hwicdw/4


http://tinypic.com/r/10wplcz/4




One video of wind driven sand. About 30 gusting to 45.


http://tinypic.com/r/34t21yc/4


Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
I hope all are doing well on the East coast. We have some moderate flooding here. Nothing like September's flood so damage should be minimal.

Good morning from the MD side of the Beltway. Just soggy, grey and breezy here.

No doubt some of our VA friends are temporarily missing in action this morning. Hope they will be wired again soonest. (And that SC will be made clean again...pls. see excerpt below.)

From morning AP report:

Dominion Power reported more than 19,000 outages in Virginia early Thursday. In Norfolk, on the coast, several bridges and a major tunnel were closed.

In North Carolina, some roads were closed and schools around Wilmington planned to open late. South Carolina authorities blamed the rain for overwhelming sewage plants in the Columbia area, dumping raw sewage into three rivers.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON... IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW... WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING... AS ANOMALIES REACH 4.5 TO 5.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE ANOMALIES WILL DIMINISH TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS AFTERNOON WILL OCCUR AT 527 PM EST AT SEWELLS POINT... AND AT 435 PM EST AT CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL. WATER LEVELS WITH THESE HIGH TIDES REFERENCED TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER... ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 7.7 TO 8.2 FEET AT SEWELLS POINT... AND 7 TO 7.5 FEET AT CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL... RESULTING IN SEVERE FLOODING. FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 430 AND 630 AM EST... WITH SEVERE FLOODING ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.

Morning from Northern NJ

Winds 15 to 20 Gusting 35 tides at the piers already 1 to 2 feet above normal. Last nights low tide cycle was barely decernable which does not bode well for todays high tide cycle. Seems this wind is also keeping the waters from retreating from the bays and rivers. Hopefully all stay dry up here.
new blog
Quoting Bonedog:
Morning from Northern NJ

Winds 15 to 20 Gusting 35 tides at the piers already 1 to 2 feet above normal. Last nights low tide cycle was barely decernable which does not bode well for todays high tide cycle. Seems this wind is also keeping the waters from retreating from the bays and rivers. Hopefully all stay dry up here.
Good Morning Bonedog. What city do you live in Northern New Jersey?
Atmoaggie & other long-time learned types have banned polls this month (uh, trying for every month);
that being said, however,
Does anybody from South Carolina to New Jersey feel the need to watch "Misery" on TWC Friday night?
555. P451
Quoting Tazmanian:
IDA sould get re name has a STS


I don't know but we had a rainband go through here in central NJ that behaved just like a tropical rain band. It's cold up here though. 45 degrees.

It's certainly a hybrid system that is for certain.

What an event. Ida, absorbs 96E remnant, absorbs BOC hybrid, and bombs off the Pressolinas.

:o

Quoting P451:


I don't know but we had a rainband go through here in central NJ that behaved just like a tropical rain band. It's cold up here though. 45 degrees.

It's certainly a hybrid system that is for certain.

What an event. Ida, absorbs 96E remnant, absorbs BOC hybrid, and bombs off the Pressolinas.

:o



I wouldn't say that if I were you, I got blasted by a blogger for being a doomscaster.. Yet look at the Mid Atlantic Coastline, a historic storm.
New blog.
Good afternoon from OBX. 5ish inches so far, we have a 1-2 foot moat around the house. Rainfall has been fairly gentle .1 inch an hourish, except for very brief bands (under three minutes which dump another .3 or so). Our newly formed and newly named, (Lake Wunder)front lawn freshwater lake is about 3-5 inches deep and slowly approaching our garage. I haven't been to the beach yet, a fair amount of debris on the roads. Right now we are getting slammed pretty seriously.