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Ida weakens to a tropical storm; tropical disturbance 96E kills 124 in El Salvador

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on November 09, 2009

Tropical Storm Ida is steadily weakening as it hurtles northwards towards the Gulf of Mexico coast. Rains from Ida have already pushed into south-central Louisiana, where radar estimates indicate up to an inch of rain has fallen. Winds along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle were 20 - 25 mph this morning, and will steadily increase today as Ida draws near. Winds at the Mississippi Canyon buoy 150 miles south of Gulfport, MS were sustained at 45 mph at 8 am EST this morning, with 19 foot waves.


Figure 1. Microwave "radar in space" image of Ida taken at 7:15 am EST on Monday, 11/9/09. The eye is visible as a dark spot, but the eyewall has partially collapsed. The strongest echoes are on the north side of the storm, and Ida's heaviest rains and highest winds will hit the coast tonight, well in advance of the arrival of the center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Infrared and visible satellite loops show that wind shear has substantially degraded the appearance of Ida, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity in the storm's eyewall. Most of Ida's heavy thunderstorms have been displaced to the north of the storm, due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating 30 knots of wind shear. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, and the shear has now driven this dry air deep into the core of the storm, significantly disrupting it. The latest 6:30am EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters reported that the eyewall was ragged, and the pressure had risen to 997 mb. A recent microwave satellite image of Ida (Figure 1) shows that the eyewall is weak and has partially collapsed. Ida's most intense thunderstorms are on the north side of the storm, and the heaviest rains and highest winds will hit the coast tonight, well in advance of the arrival of the center.

The intensity forecast for Ida
The intensity forecast models predict that Ida's winds will range between 50 - 65 knots (58 - 74 mph) at landfall. The high wind shear of 30 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to increase to 40 knots by late afternoon, and 55 knots by midnight. With Ida now over waters near 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane, and with water temperatures decreasing to 23°C near the coast, the combination of high wind shear and cold waters will act to significantly weaken Ida. However, Ida is beginning to transition to an extratropical storm, and it is often the case that during such a transition the winds will gain energy from the process, though that's looking unlikely in this case. I expect Ida's top winds will be in the 50 - 60 mph range along the coast tonight and Tuesday morning. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast and well inland. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low.


Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will be much weaker, so surges will not be this high. Furthermore, the storm will not create this level of surge along the entire coast--the image above is a composite worst-case scenario for all the storms shown by the black tracks with arrows. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that was driving tides 2.5 feet above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans) this morning, one foot above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and one foot at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is now calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, when even a strong tropical storm can cause significant damage to the low-lying, heavily developed barrier island. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide, and high tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday.




Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 2.5 feet above normal at 9am CST, while it was just over 1.0 feet above normal at the other two locations. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Comparing to Hurricane Kate
The last November hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico was Hurricane Kate. Kate struck the Florida Panhandle near Mexico Beach on November 21, 1985 as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, Kate killed five people in Florida and did $300 million (1985 dollars) in damage. Ida will cause relatively minor damage compared to Kate.

Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Navarre Beach, FL webcam.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.

El Salvador floods kill 124
Heavy rains that began on Thursday due to tropical disturbance 96E have killed at least 124 people in El Salvador, with 60 people still missing. The flooding hit the capital of San Salvador and rural areas to the east. The heavy rains were due to tropical disturbance 96E (Figure 4), which formed off the coast of El Salvador on Wednesday, November 4. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the disturbance pulled large quantities of moist, Pacific air over the coastal mountains in El Salvador, dumping heavy rains of up to five inches, according to satellite estimates. The rains must have been much heavier over a small area that the satellite could not resolve. The terrible devastation I'm seeing in news photos indicates much higher rains of perhaps 10 - 15 inches must have fallen in a concentrated area in the mountains.


Figure 4. Satellite image of tropical disturbance 96E, which moved over El Salvador Thursday through Saturday, bringing heavy rains. Also pictured is Tropical Depression Eleven, which intensified into Tropical Storm Ida later that day. Ida was not responsible for the flooding in El Salvador, though it may have helped pull 96E into El Salvador. NASA has a nice zoom image> of 96E from November 5.

I'll have an update on Ida this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

IDA is a tenacious little bugger. Stumping the best of em.
I'll change my name to BessieBurger if someone will acknowledge my lowly and uninformed questions:). Possible flooding in NO, TWC showed projected water/surge in that area and is Ida the last hurrah of 2009 or other activity to follow.
Quoting atmoaggie:
This does look to be a little bigger in the TS-force wind area. Caveat: This product depends on some persistence between the time of satellite pass and production of this product. Can be off in a fluid situation such as Ida with much latency in the satellite data.



Okay is orange TS winds?
Quoting atmoaggie:

One more: there can be attenuation of the radar beam by an area dense with hydrometeors, giving a distorted view, or none at all, of precip beyond the high density stuff.
Sometime today, there may be features visible on the New Orleans long range radar, not visible via Mobile's radar because of this.

Water vapor by satellite obviously does not have this issue.



The one issue with the water vapor sattelite image, is it only gives you an example of the upper atmospheric situation.

For Example, many times we have had 2.00 + PWAT air where there is deep layer moisture in the low to mid levels and dry air aloft. By aftertoon, numerous heavy thunderstorms pop up.

Which shows the "water vapor" sattelite can be very deceiving. Its a great tool for osberving anything in the upper levels, such as short waves and jet streams.
505. Halyn
I just got here .. has anyone heard from Oz and/or Ike ??
Please don't blast me, but if you do its still ok. Everyone in Ida's path keep safe, she packs a bigger punch than most might think, if she takes that ESE movement the whole west coast of Florida could have a much bigger impact, jmo
The last two recon fixes show the center heading right for the HH home air port in Biloxi.
IDa on NOLA Medium Range Radar



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
70 knots surrounded by flagged data...withholding opinion for the moment.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
Quoting Jedkins01:



The one issue with the water vapor sattelite image, is it only gives you an example of the upper atmospheric situation.

For Example, many times we have had 2.00 + PWAT air where there is deep layer moisture in the low to mid levels and dry air aloft. By aftertoon, numerous heavy thunderstorms pop up.

Which shows the "water vapor" sattelite can be very deceiving. Its a great tool for osberving anything in the upper levels, such as short waves and jet streams.

Bravo!
Quoting Patrap:
IDa on NOLA Medium Range Radar



Will we get rain you think Pat?
Quoting ElConando:


Okay is orange TS winds?

Yes.
515. IKE
Quoting Halyn:
I just got here .. has anyone heard from Oz and/or Ike ??


Yeah...I'm here. Went to Wal-Mart to get dinner and some chicken tenders.

Hmmm...their good.
Looks like its going to be Mobile on the E side.
Somethin lurkin just off shore, that's for sure !



You all are killin me, no lunch yet. Gotta go get some now, chicken nugget taco's, yum :)

Reply to taco...westend of dauphin island has some overwash. No surprises there !!! Police have roadblocked when I was on that end about tenish. About st stephens street. Water bareley went down by inches with dropping tide. Should be something to watch on incoming! Bay is very rough already.
Quoting atmoaggie:
70 knots surrounded by flagged data...withholding opinion for the moment.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/


My thinking also, manual QC may reject those.
Ida is gonna finish wrapping up and hit Mobile. Dauphin Island landfall. Rainy and gusty tonight for us.
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

HH home air port in Biloxi.
"It's headed for Biloxi!" I remember that line from Ivan...
523. P451
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
IDA is a tenacious little bugger. Stumping the best of em.


Incredible how she just won't quit. I thought she was on her way fully to extratropical transition, and damn well looked like it, then she does this and tightens back up and brushes it off.

She's behaved like this since she was born, though, so it shouldn't really surprise us too much.

Quoting IKE:


Yeah...I'm here. Went to Wal-Mart to get dinner and some chicken tenders.

Hmmm...their good.


Love their hot wings, may get some in a few minutes.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Ida is gonna finish wrapping up and hit Mobile. Dauphin Island landfall. Rainy and gusty tonight for us.
I wouldnt be suprised if she goes a little West of us.
Looks like Ida could make land fall way before 6am. Is there anything that could slow her down
I am very suprised that they dropped the hurrcane advisories so abruptly well over 12 hours out from the forecasted landfall.
Quoting Patrap:


wonder if those two lightning spots are the HH plane getting whacked... bout teh same place, and a giant metal lightning rod in a TS might be enough to get a rare boom outta one.
Quoting P451:
The scope of this merging of multiple systems is just impressive.



This is what happens when a EPac invest (96E) merges with a Hurricane (Ida) merges with a hybrid extratropical system (BOC system - south of LA right now - still an ongoing process) merges with a trough (that swept in from Mexico) merges with an ULL (that swept through western Texas yesterday)

Pretty wild scenario that came together here. Mother Nature putting on a show.

But no Arctic air to make it stand on it's head.
Quoting cattlebaroness:
I'll change my name to BessieBurger if someone will acknowledge my lowly and uninformed questions:). Possible flooding in NO, TWC showed projected water/surge in that area and is Ida the last hurrah of 2009 or other activity to follow.


I can't see that there would be that much flooding in NO, darlin' and as for this being the last hurrah, the season is over on November 30th...that's all I'll say on that score
532. P451
So the three scenarios left to discuss are:

Ida and her friends - likely to become one will:

a) Head into the SE US, ride off the NC coast, and bomb as a Nor'Easter

b) Hug the NE Gulf coast and turn SE through Florida and weaken.

C) Hug the NE Gulf coast and turn E and head off the E coast of Florida while weakening and dissipating somewhere off the E coast of Florida.


I don't think there are any other high confidence scenarios to discuss are there?

Why do we still have such a low confidence forecast?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 19:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 19:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°29'W (28.N 88.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (268 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:16:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:35:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND

Quoting stormsurge39:
I wouldnt be suprised if she goes a little West of us.


That would be worse Surger!
Wheres the trough to turn Ida, or is she going too fast?
Quoting P451:


Incredible how she just won't quit. I thought she was on her way fully to extratropical transition, and damn well looked like it, then she does this and tightens back up and brushes it off.

She's behaved like this since she was born, though, so it shouldn't really surprise us too much.



Not at all surprised. Seems Hurricane Warnings may be in order here at 4pm.
Quoting cattlebaroness:
I'll change my name to BessieBurger if someone will acknowledge my lowly and uninformed questions:). Possible flooding in NO, TWC showed projected water/surge in that area and is Ida the last hurrah of 2009 or other activity to follow.
Flooding in NO, don't know might want to ask Patrap that queation. AAs for this being the last hurrah. Well Climatology says we are extremely close to the end of the season (last day of November) however this has been a very unusual year
539. IKE
Quoting MILLERTIME1:
Looks like Ida could make land fall way before 6am. Is there anything that could slow her down


I don't think so.

I can almost pick up her COC on the short-range Mobile,AL. radar now.

It's cool here in the western Florida panhandle...66 degrees and light rain.
I know, lets hope not, but thats the way its looking
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 19:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 19:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°29'W (28.N 88.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (268 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:16:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:35:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND




Hurricane Warnings It Is.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Ida is gonna finish wrapping up and hit Mobile. Dauphin Island landfall. Rainy and gusty tonight for us.

Everybody there lives in a Mobile home.
Quoting iluvjess:
I am very suprised that they dropped the hurrcane advisories so abruptly well over 12 hours out from the forecasted landfall.


Ya'll are lucky Jefferson, Peterson and Scott got hurt.......LOL

GEAUX Tigers
TROPICAL STORM IDA
**Intermediate Graphics Update**

Comments appreciated on my NEW Special Graphics
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Hurricane Warnings It Is.
Crap
Quoting IKE:


I don't think so.

I can almost pick up her COC on the short-range Mobile,AL. radar now.

It's cool here in the western Florida panhandle...66 degrees and light rian.


Rain moving eastward toward me. Almost there. Wind picking up more too. Not too bad but it reminds me of previous systems.
ABOUT TIME YOU JOINED US FLOOD!!!
Quoting stormsurge39:
Wheres the trough to turn Ida, or is she going too fast?


I would like to know this also..
Freakin' amazing.
Quoting Wetagain:

Reply to taco...westend of dauphin island has some overwash. No surprises there !!! Police have roadblocked when I was on that end about tenish. About st stephens street. Water bareley went down by inches with dropping tide. Should be something to watch on incoming! Bay is very rough already.


Thank You.... I just did not want to drive down if I can't get on to the Island....

Taco :0)
Quoting P451:
So the three scenarios left to discuss are:

Ida and her friends - likely to become one will:

a) Head into the SE US, ride off the NC coast, and bomb as a Nor'Easter

b) Hug the NE Gulf coast and turn SE through Florida and weaken.

C) Hug the NE Gulf coast and turn E and head off the E coast of Florida while weakening and dissipating somewhere off the E coast of Florida.


I don't think there are any other high confidence scenarios to discuss are there?

Why do we still have such a low confidence forecast?


Lets land her first.
547. rareaire 12:04 PM PST on November 09, 2009
ABOUT TIME YOU JOINED US FLOOD!!!


Jerry! How's the back today?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


My thinking also, manual QC may reject those.

SW Quad? Could be downburst winds...
555. IKE
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 19:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 19:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°29'W (28.N 88.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (268 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:16:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:35:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND



Welcome back Kotter...er, hurricane Ida.
Quoting Patrap:
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


From its present position and current/stated path it looks as if the center could pass over us here in NOLA.
Quoting rareaire:
ABOUT TIME YOU JOINED US FLOOD!!!


Been answering phones calls from the likes of Conch and watching this silly weather feature ramp up and down...
No flooding NOLA proper,but in the Lower Parishes,East facing areas outside the Levee Protection System is seeing rising Tides as of now..
Good Afternoon!

Latest Vortex has Ida at a 1 millibar lower pressure than at 1PM, But winds are just below at 67MPH. Expect the 4PM advisory to have a pressure of 991 Millibars and a 70MPH wind.
She may have never stopped being a hurricane

when they downgraded her, there was no recon in the storm
Quoting Patrap:
I think that all the west coast of Florida is going to have a big suprise!! all the way down to the Florida Keys,just look at the band of rain and thunderstorms approaching the West Coast amazing!! picture.
Ive never seen Mobile County Emergency Management wait and see like this! If it comes W of Dauphin Island, those folks are in for a bad ride!
Wingo Ida!
564. Halyn
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...I'm here. Went to Wal-Mart to get dinner and some chicken tenders.

Hmmm...their good.

Ike .. is Oz on live like he said he was going to try last night .. I finally gave up and went to bed .. :)

Good afternoon,

Looks like Ida is going to get ready for a turn N with an easterly component to it soon as she has started to slow down some.
Quoting P451:
So the three scenarios left to discuss are:

Ida and her friends - likely to become one will:

a) Head into the SE US, ride off the NC coast, and bomb as a Nor'Easter

b) Hug the NE Gulf coast and turn SE through Florida and weaken.

C) Hug the NE Gulf coast and turn E and head off the E coast of Florida while weakening and dissipating somewhere off the E coast of Florida.


I don't think there are any other high confidence scenarios to discuss are there?

Why do we still have such a low confidence forecast?


Excerpt from NWS Sterling, VA (Balt - DC NWS)

THE NAM KEEPS IDA COMPLETELY SQUELCHED DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND NEARBY COASTAL AREAS OF FL/GA. INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BASICALLY AN EFFECT OF HAVING THE UPPER TROF PUSH INTO THE
MID ATLC BEFORE IDA IS ABLE TO DRIFT NEWD. THE GFS USES THE UPPER
TROF TO ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO A POTENT
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF CAPE HATTERAS...BASED OF IT/S SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF ALLOWING IDA TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GA/SC
JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF...THO IT SEEMS LIKE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER IN THE 00Z RUN OF MODEL PACKAGES.

WITH THE GFS SOLUTION...THE EFFECTS OF THIS COASTAL LOW WOULD BE
FELT FOR EVEN LONGER AND STRONGER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF THE
CWA AND SEWD /IN WINDS AND RAIN/. 00Z RUNS OF THE GEM AND EUROPEAN
SEEM A BIT MORE REALISTIC W/ THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH THEY DO BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON THE ERN SEABOARD. THE GEM IS VERY SLOW W/ THE NEAR-TERM
PROGRESS OF IDA...AND NO LANDFALL /SO DISCOUNTING THE 00Z RUN/. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS W/ THE UPPER WAVE...BUT IT DOESN/T
DEVELOP THE COASTAL NEARLY AS STRONG OR CLOSE TO THE COAST.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good Afternoon!

Latest Vortex has Ida at a 1 millibar lower pressure than at 1PM, But winds are just below at 67MPH. Expect the 4PM advisory to have a pressure of 991 Millibars and a 70MPH wind.


Recon shows they found hurricane force winds as well
Quoting NRAamy:
547. rareaire 12:04 PM PST on November 09, 2009
ABOUT TIME YOU JOINED US FLOOD!!!


Jerry! How's the back today?


Bad, as is very much not good...I'm into the heavy hitters now : (

I see the surgeon on Friday...

Thanks for asking darlin'!
Quoting stormsurge39:
Crap
did they reissue hurrican warnings
Quoting Floodman:


Been answering phones calls from the likes of Conch and watching this silly weather feature ramp up and down...


Sweet...I got an Honorable mention ;-)...Flood is worn out I would imagine...
571. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
She may have never stopped being a hurricane

when they downgraded her, there was no recon in the storm


You may be right.

NHC may need Max Mayfield to come back and take over.

They seem a little off in 2009.
I chatted with Ike early around 5 am,after i was on a Conf call,and I was advised to expect a landfall between Waveland and Biloxi around 8pm.

Im holding to that as of now. But Ida's windfield is expanding so a single point isnt that important relative to the impacts right now
Well Flood its a cane again for the time being! Can we just keep the hunters in there! Or give Oz a kite!
574. P451
Incredible....


Quoting divdog:
did they reissue hurrican warnings


Not yet, recon showing 84mph though.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good afternoon,

Looks like Ida is going to get ready for a turn N with an easterly component to it soon as she has started to slow down some.


I noticed she had lost some length in her step.
Quoting P451:
Incredible....




Does it Look like it is making a turn to the West there?
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, latest report from the Shell/MARS platform has no wind speed. Leaves all sorts of room for speculation...
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42363
IKE, check your mail....
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ive never seen Mobile County Emergency Management wait and see like this! If it comes W of Dauphin Island, those folks are in for a bad ride!


West end is clear of people, Bienville is flooded. Be a few days before we can get down there and check things out. We know the drill.
Quoting P451:
Incredible....




The whole peninsula of Florida is going to get whacked by that band trailing down on her east side
Quoting Patrap:
No flooding NOLA proper,but in the Lower Parishes,East facing areas outside the Levee Protection System is seeing rising Tides as of now..


Yea a few didn't make it into work today. Notably just E of the city.
I swear IDA looks like it's making a B line for NOLA.
Good afternoon all,

Can someone explain to me the nature of the line of storms extending from Ida into the Yucatan channel? I've seen this often in November/October GOM storms. Is it related to a front/trough? It looks as though it will be dragging slowly across the FL peninsula if Ida turns to the east as forecast. Does this band contain severe weather (tornadoes, high winds, etc) or is it just a rain/flooding event? Is there a technical name for it or is it just a feeder band? If anyone can answer some of these questions, I would be grateful. Thanks.
LOL, Ida will turn more E when she gets darn good and ready! Ive seen more E of N than anything else and she still gets fartherN and farther W on the Map. whew
Ida looks a lot like Hurricane Cindy from July 05 and I expect her impacts to be about the same where and to the right of where Landfall occurs

Mobile Medium Range Radar



Cindy 2005



Quoting HIEXPRESS:

Everybody there lives in a Mobile home.


Hey There HIEXPRESS I want you to know I have a 4 bedroom House and Love it.....

Taco :0)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I swear IDA looks like it's making a B line for NOLA.


looks are deceiving

she is headed north right now, she will miss NO
Quoting Floodman:


Bad, as is very much not good...I'm into the heavy hitters now : (

I see the surgeon on Friday...

Thanks for asking darlin'!
You lucky DOG, that's 2 "darlin"s" in 3 posts. Good to see ya, sorry to hear the back is not getting better.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I think that all the west coast of Florida is going to have a big suprise!! all the way down to the Florida Keys,just look at the band of rain and thunderstorms approaching the West Coast amazing!! picture.


link please?
Quoting ConchHondros:


Sweet...I got an Honorable mention ;-)...Flood is worn out I would imagine...


LOL...Mrs. Flood is more worn out than I am...
Quoting Patrap:
Ida looks a lot like Hurricane Cindy from July 05 and I expect her impacts to be about the same where and to the right of where Landfall occurs

Mobile Medium Range Radar



Cindy 2005



Patrap thanks for posting this map, its more than easy to tell Idas going NNW!
Quoting atmoaggie:

SW Quad? Could be downburst winds...


It was at a time when they were coming out of rain, which is known to cause an increase in readings. However the report in the Vortex message was one not included in the HDOB obs which report 10 sec avg every 30 sec so there is 20 sec of data not reported by HDOB. I believe the flight met does see that data so it must be.
Afternoon,all,so I gather from reading back,recon is reporting hurr. force winds.
She's a tough old lady,she's not going out without a fight.sure hope people along the coast haven't let their guard down.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


looks are deceiving

she is headed north right now, she will miss NO
'

Yeah, I know but, looking at P451's image sure would fool many.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
'

Yeah, I know but, looking at P451's image sure would fool many.


True it would lol
Quoting stormsurge39:
Wheres the trough to turn Ida, or is she going too fast?


she is suppose to slow down a little bit as she starts to approach the coast and once she is onshore.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
You lucky DOG, that's 2 "darlin"s" in 3 posts. Good to see ya, sorry to hear the back is not getting better.


Good seeing you...WUMail for you, sir
NHC would never upgrade her back to hurricane strength. Too late for that. That ship sailed when she was downgraded.
Thank you also eyes
Sounding from Fort Walton Beach from 10 AM CST...lotsa shear (directional, that is).
Good thing the CAPE isn't there, but could be a foretelling thing for the severe stuff in the event of on-shore convection.


(full size, click!)
602. P451
Quoting nolacane2009:


Does it Look like it is making a turn to the West there?


I don't believe so. I think that's the convection waning a bit on the right side fooling us into watching the left side...which tricks you into thinking you're seeing a NW jog.

She is still northward bound.

Now that she is visible on radar, that is what should be used to track her center.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


True it would lol


Wouldn't that be an "Oh Crap"
Quoting Floodman:


Good seeing you...WUMail for you, sir

Hope you are "back" to being spry soon ,darlin.
Just got word, most of the west end of Dauphin Island is under water, as well as some beach roads in Gulf Shores.
Quoting Halyn:


Ike .. is Oz on live like he said he was going to try last night .. I finally gave up and went to bed .. :)



Technical difficulties with the live webcam has prevented him from broadcasting live during the storm but he will be shooting HD video for the youtube video to come later. Sounds like he's getting pretty good squalls from the initial feeder bands.
609. P451
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


The whole peninsula of Florida is going to get whacked by that band trailing down on her east side


If she pulls Easterly then that could be a problem. I think we were discussing that potential scenario last night.

Quoting taco2me61:


Hey There HIEXPRESS I want you to know I have a 4 bedroom House and Love it.....

Taco :0)


I think it was a pun - you have a home in Mobile, hence a "Mobile home".
FLOODMAN.. You called darlin'?

Reminds me of the Coe song......You don't hane to call me darlin', darlin.
Quoting DestinJeff:
i just saw on TWC that Al Roker has new morning show! It's called "Wake Up With Al" ... they sure aren't getting the word out very much!
No, it has been changed to "Another Morning of Anoying Al"
Thanks for the mail DrNo...now I guess "we" have a special relationship...so I will give you a nickname...as I do all my "special" buddies...I will dub you Corky...welcome to the Conch fan club, your membership card will be mailed in 4 to 6 weeks :)
Quoting DestinJeff:
i just saw on TWC that Al Roker has new morning show! It's called "Wake Up With Al" ... they sure aren't getting the word out very much!


Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but it's been going on for months and it's TERRIBLE. Worst show ive seen hands down.
Al Roker cooks BBQ and predicts weather
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hope you are "back" to being spry soon ,darlin.


What a really funny guy you are, darlin;'...LOL
618. IKE
Ida's coc coming into view on the 124NM Mobile radar....

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I swear IDA looks like it's making a B line for NOLA.

Im trying to patiently await this turn east but umm yea so far the satelite makes me nervous.

Pat whats your thinking?
Quoting druseljic:


I think it was a pun - you have a home in Mobile, hence a "Mobile home".

Somebody "got it". ;)
"Terrible" would be an upgrade to WUWA on TWC...
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not, but it's been going on for months and it's TERRIBLE. Worst show ive seen hands down.

Ever since NBC bought The Weather Channel, a lot of interesting things have been happening with it...
623. xcool
she back cat 1 ohhh wow
Ida is persistent. Core has good precipitation and windfield, albeit small. Anybody want to D.I. west end tonight?
Cloudy and dreary here in Prairieville, La.. Ida is makin' me wanna nap
Quoting druseljic:


I think it was a pun - you have a home in Mobile, hence a "Mobile home".


Sorry having a Blond Male Moment.... just did not get it....

Taco :0)
627. Mikla
Buoy Data... NOte the 25ft wave height...
628. P451
3HR Pressure Tendency - In MB.

Dauphin Island after Katrina
Link
630. xcool
Grand Isle Rushes To Repair Collapsed Levee
Quoting MakeAWishCast:
Cloudy and dreary here in Prairieville, La.. Ida is makin' me wanna nap


Im in Pville as well and DITTO!
Can somebody please tell Ida - this is NOT a football game and she doesn't need to be a line-backer - Don't like how she fakes to the east - and then pops up a few steps west....
The clear spot on the radar loop that looks like the COC isn't the COC, right? It's deceiving. Looking at it for a bit I gather it's moving due north maybe slightly east of north. Anyone else seeing this movement?



Current Conditions

Boothville, Louisiana (Airport)

Updated: 36 min 15 sec ago
Light Rain
68 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 64 °F
Wind: 31 mph from the ENE

Wind Gust: 46 mph

Pressure: 29.86 in (Falling)

Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1900 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2400 ft
Overcast 2800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Quoting alaina1085:


Im in Pville as well and DITTO!


You look familiar!!

An attrative weather junkie... This girl is after my heart! Haha
Quoting alaina1085:


Im in Pville as well and DITTO!


Over in Gonzales and the wind is picking up
Quoting IKE:
Ida's coc coming into view on the 124NM Mobile radar....

Ike have you heard that Ida is suppossed to slow down when it is closer to landfall?
640. P451
Now the EMA just caaled my home phone and are setting up shelters for mobile....
Quoting P451:


If she pulls Easterly then that could be a problem. I think we were discussing that potential scenario last night.

Quoting P451:


If she pulls Easterly then that could be a problem. I think we were discussing that potential scenario last night.

That is exactly what I mention quoting a patrap picture a few entries ago,that line coming from east to west looks very scary for all the east coast of Florida from the FLorida keys up North,we'll see what happens??.
Tough to imagine Ida really maintain a hurricane structure given the appearance, open eyewall, lowering SSTs, and...
...no lightning. Only in the band stretching down the FL west coast.

Quoting IKE:
Ida's coc coming into view on the 124NM Mobile radar....



She ain't done yet is she?
Ida is VERY west Loaded with Wind,all the stronger Gusts seems to be in the LEFT semi Circle..
She is accelerating to the NNW really fast now
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
648. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:
The clear spot on the radar loop that looks like the COC isn't the COC, right? It's deceiving. Looking at it for a bit I gather it's moving due north maybe slightly east of north. Anyone else seeing this movement?


It may be nudging just a touch east of north or due north, for now.

Looks like Mobile to Pensacola is ground zero.
Quoting taco2me61:
Now the EMA just caaled my home phone and are setting up shelters for mobile....
Are you in the city limits or county?
650. P451
NEW BLOG











NEW BLOG




.
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:
"Terrible" would be an upgrade to WUWA on TWC...


Even in all caps? Yeah, your right.

WUWA was the final straw for me hating TWC and I refuse to watch WeatherScan because it is TWC-powered. I come here for all of my weather needs.

So Ida's a Cat 1 again? 25 ft seas in a Cat 1? Could the energy from the merge do that?
Looks like im gonna get smacked by this. Actually, it looks like everybody in SE LA, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, and maybe South Carolina are gonna get smacked by this.
One says "East" one says "West" reminds me of Sunny Anderson one year ago, and now...East meets west and spreads out
Quoting Patrap:
Ida is VERY west Loaded with Wind,all the stronger Gusts seems to be in the LEFT semi Circle..
She is accelerating to the NNW really fast now

So you think shes going to come closer to home then expected?
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 27.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 71.6 °F still an easterly wind shows that the center has not passed this point
Just got back from a quick drive to check out the waves on Okaloosa Island. A little rainy and breezy out there. The waves look like a washing machine. No flooding on Hwy 98 but all the parks are closed (the pier was still open though not many ppl out on it). Took some pics w/my new camera and came home. Roads are pretty clear here in FWB but I'm sure that'll change as the afternoon & evening wear on and the heavy rains come ashore! ;)
175 mph wind in Mobile! Kidding of course. Starting to get a little windy.....lots of rain.
Ida is about to dip her to toes in cold water.

Quoting Hurricane1956:
That is exactly what I mention quoting a patrap picture a few entries ago,that line coming from east to west looks very scary for all the east coast of Florida from the FLorida keys up North,we'll see what happens??.
is there high winds associated with this line?
3D RADAR across the eye of Ida

So is Ida back to hurricane strenght or not ?
STORMsURGEON.bE CAREFUL, SOME PEOPLE HERE DON'T KNOW.tHEY HAVE BEEN THROUGH A FEW BAD ONES
NEW BLOG
Sorry, Bad finger
Ready for that turn to the east.... Anytime now.

Diamondhead, MS
Quoting P451:


If she pulls Easterly then that could be a problem. I think we were discussing that potential scenario last night.



But there doesn't appear to be much heavy rain in it. I think some folks here are wishcasting again. It looks to be some nice NEEDED rain.
667. Halyn
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Technical difficulties with the live webcam has prevented him from broadcasting live during the storm but he will be shooting HD video for the youtube video to come later. Sounds like he's getting pretty good squalls from the initial feeder bands.


Thank you .. :) Although I seldom post (don't know enough to sound halfway intelligent) I have been here long enough to feel "at home" .. and often I worry about the ones in harm's way .. from the safety of my Illinois home. Flood .. hang in there .. btdt and have the t-shirt to prove it .. will be thinking about you .. :)
Quoting eyesontheweather:
is there high winds associated with this line?


No just some light rain it looks like on radar.
Just got back from the beach in Biloxi, and the water is creeping up the beach. One of the few times we have surf.
671. MTWX
Afternoon all!! Just waiting on the rain we don't need!
Winds picking up here pretty good in NOLA..
So is Ida a hurricane again or no? If so where is the data that supports this. I'd like to check it out.
28.4n 88.5w moving north
675. drj27
Quoting mattkenton:
So is Ida a hurricane again or no? If so where is the data that supports this. I'd like to check it out.
no still 70 mph tropical storm
676. 996tt
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


maybe he is related to the Kite flying idiot who became the dunce of the world during Fay last year lol


Dude, that is cold.
Hey All,

Just wanted to pass on a Pensacola Doug and CycloneOz sighting. They were in the hood a little while ago gathering data!
678. Halyn
Had to leave for a while .. where has everyone gone ? What did I miss that silenced this blog?