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Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:17 PM GMT on November 08, 2009

Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.

The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.


Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.


Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Links to follow:

U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Patrap
Morning WX..
1502. Patrap
1503. WxLogic
Quoting Patrap:
Morning WX..


Morning... Pat...
Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 25.966N 85.594W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 9 Nov 2009 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 42.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 20.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 79.9 F
View Details - View History

Info from buoy 262 nm south of Panama City, FL
morning folks!
I'm quite tempted to stay up for the 7 AM update from the NHC, to see what they have to say about Ida's intensity and structure.
1507. WxLogic
What a dramatic change
Quoting indianrivguy:
morning folks!


Morning...
1508. WxLogic
Leaving shortly... work work.

Morning all.
Pat, it looks like you have been working overtime, thanks for all the info. Much needed and appreciated!!!.

congrats on the Saints !!!
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm quite tempted to stay up for the 7 AM update from the NHC, to see what they have to say about Ida's intensity and structure.
It's not far off but I think the Gulf States are in for a nasty few days. Just listened to the BBC World Update and El Salvador had it bad. More than 100 people confirmed dead and more than 100 missing. 10,000 homeless. A very sad situation.
I think GFS first to notice the change. Into NOLA. Ida has made virtually no latitude in 4 hours. She's basically been riding the 25 line west.

Link
1512. WxLogic
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm quite tempted to stay up for the 7 AM update from the NHC, to see what they have to say about Ida's intensity and structure.


After the next HH pass I won't be surprised that pressure will be above 994 with lesser winds.

I expect it to range from 40 to 50 MPH by the time it gets to land... Due to friction I don't expect winds inland to be more than 40MPH with only higher gusts in showers.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It's not far off but I think the Gulf States are in for a nasty few days. Just listened to the BBC World Update and El Salvador had it bad. More than 100 people confirmed dead and more than 100 missing. 10,000 homeless. A very sad situation.


Ah, I hadn't realized those deaths in El Salvador were attributable to Ida. We did, after all, have East Pacific disturbance 96E in that area as well.

Yeah, that's very unfortunate. Even one life lost is too much.

As I said, if Ida goes extratropical now, we may have some big surprises in the near future.
1514. Patrap
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Morning all.
Pat, it looks like you have been working overtime, thanks for all the info. Much needed and appreciated!!!.

congrats on the Saints !!!


Saints found another way to win..
Im bout done here come sunrise.

Been a fun run watching this one.
Good to see her go Xtra and become less a threat for many
Quoting WxLogic:


After the next HH pass I won't be surprised that pressure will be above 994 with lesser winds.

I expect it to range from 40 to 50 MPH by the time it gets to land... Due to friction I don't expect winds inland to be more than 40MPH with only higher gusts in showers.


Sounds reasonable.

However, extratropical cyclones typically have large wind fields, and as such, even if sustained winds never exceed minimal tropcial storm force, if you have that kind of wind covering a large area, then you'll start to have problems, which is what I fear might happen here.
good morning all, about to head into work which I can only lurk and not post. Getting breezy here this morning in southern MS. Wind chime would stop making noises. Should have taken it down last night haha.
Good Morning

Ida will undergo extratropical transition on the 10th

Morning everybody. I need to get off to work, but I'd like to see that update myself... Ida sure looks more extratropical now that it did 3 hrs ago...

If I don't get a chance to check in again later, u guys stay safe, esp. the WUbloggers from LA to the FL panhandle...
1519. Patrap
Id say Ida iz about a full day ahead of that graphs schedule,..LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Id say Ida iz about a full day ahead of that graphs schedule,..LOL


While she is undoubtedly undergoing extratropical transition, I can tell that she still, at least at present, retains some tropical characteristics -- the humid, eerie feel that is always present during a tropical cyclone is still evident outside.

Complete transition will likely take a few more hours.
Oh, I was not ban yesterday. I just was not on the blog.
Good morning
Theodore, Al. here
zip code 36582
Winds 1 mph
overcast
looks a lot different than 9 pm last night
Jesse


Quoting Patrap:
Well..enjoyed the Fray chase..

G'day.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

IDA,Steering Layer 300-850mb - West Atlantic - Latest Available


Have a good one Pat. I'm not too far behind. :)
Good morning everyone
Quoting Weather456:
Oh, I was not ban yesterday. I just was not on the blog.
What about the blob to the east of you ? Lots of convection. Any possibility of something developing from that ?
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Good morning everyone
Good morning.
Looks to me from an untrained eye that alot more people may be in store for power loss than yesterday. Could be looking at some long days ahead
good morning allmost blown off my rock snook fishing last night some heavy rain too e cent florida no ike this morning
anyone know if recon is inside now or the next time they will be there
1532. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sweet dreams Ike. :)


It was.:)

That last 2 hours of sleep was the best.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about the blob to the east of you ? Lots of convection. Any possibility of something developing from that ?


Its tied to a surface trough along the tail end of a dying frontal boundary. Models are developing the area into a hybrid system the same way they did with 96L.

Some models even show the system moving NW and merging with Ida as she exits the East Coast.

The models agree that the system will head NW or WNW and agree it become absorbed either by Ida or a cold front.

456...glad you are back...missed your info..thank goodness I had pat's
1535. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Ida quickly going Extra-Tropical as a Whole new CoC is taking over Sw of the Old CoC

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop



I see that.
Ida is racing for the Gulf coast

Winds are gusting to tropical storm force on almost all buoys in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico with the highest at 42003 - 47 mph

We also have 14-18 ft seas being reported.
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Good morning everyone


good morning ALC.......a little windy here in Biloxi this morning
Quoting Weather456:


Its tied to a surface trough along the tail end of a dying frontal boundary. Models are developing the area into a hybrid system the same way they did with 96L.

Some models even show the system moving NW and merging with Ida as she exits the East Coast.

The models agree that the system will head NW or WNW and agree it become absorbed either by Ida or a cold front.

What a time of year for things to decide to develop.
also ike's info...thanks
Quoting IKE:


It was.:)

That last 2 hours of sleep was the best.


Lol. I'm glad. :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What a time of year for things to decide to develop.


It's delivering some heavy showers here in the islands.

Its nice and cool right now.
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


good morning ALC.......a little windy here in Biloxi this morning
I'm at the Isle and haven't even looked out the window yet
I was watching the channels from the United States over the weekend, especially the news ones and compared to this morning it seems like Ida wasn't really taken serious by some.
Quoting Weather456:


It's delivering some heavy showers here in the islands.

Its nice and cool right now.
We had three days straight rain from Ida. Not too hot now but you know how it goes in the islands, cool right after the rains and then hotter than ever.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We had three days straight rain from Ida. Not too hot now but you know how it goes in the islands, cool right after the rains and then hotter than ever.


yea

humidity
I think Ike lives close to the hurricane warning

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IDA 11L

INITIAL TIME 6Z NOV 9

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -87.50 LAT: 24.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -87.70 LAT: 26.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -87.70 LAT: 28.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -87.60 LAT: 29.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -87.30 LAT: 30.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -87.00 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -86.30 LAT: 31.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -85.50 LAT: 32.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -84.90 LAT: 32.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -84.20 LAT: 31.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -83.60 LAT: 31.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -83.00 LAT: 30.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -82.70 LAT: 29.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
STORM DISSIPATED AT 72.0 HOURS AT ABOVE POSITION.
FORECAST WAS RUN COUPLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


GFDL


HOUR: .0 LONG: -87.56 LAT: 24.39 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 85.13
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -88.07 LAT: 25.76 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 71.82
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -88.28 LAT: 27.28 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 67.29
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -88.27 LAT: 28.18 MIN PRESS (hPa): 986.58 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.82
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -88.27 LAT: 28.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.88 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.43
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -87.81 LAT: 29.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.28 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.02
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -87.03 LAT: 29.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.39
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -86.22 LAT: 29.78 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.05
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -85.68 LAT: 29.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.09 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.04
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -85.05 LAT: 29.19 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 46.29
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -84.21 LAT: 28.68 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.21 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.75
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -83.19 LAT: 28.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.73 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.70
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -82.05 LAT: 27.89 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.30 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.76
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -80.91 LAT: 28.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.14 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.90
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -79.77 LAT: 28.48 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.01 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.44
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.15 LAT: 29.11 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.06 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.97
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -78.61 LAT: 29.43 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.04 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.30
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -78.78 LAT: 30.12 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.29
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -78.59 LAT: 30.29 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.50 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.15
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -79.06 LAT: 30.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.31 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.85
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -79.72 LAT: 30.05 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.92 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.81
-99.9 -99.90 -99.90

1548. FLH
HEY GUYS, LOOKS TO ME IDA IS BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL EARLY
Pensacola and Mobile stations finally 'tuned in' last night.

We are 7 miles from Pensaola NAS, we'll stay put - concern is the office, there high wter on a rainy day.

Ike do you have high tide link by any chance?

Quoting Weather456:
I was watching the channels from the United States over the weekend, especially the news ones and compared to this morning it seems like Ida wasn't really taken serious by some.
Quoting FLH:
HEY GUYS, LOOKS TO ME IDA IS BECOMING EXTRA TROPICAL EARLY


What really is the difference?

Sporadic outages
downed trees
heavy rains
heavy winds
high surf
I guess Ida will affect oil prices since some oil rigs were shut down in anticipation of the storm.
1552. IKE
Quoting MsBlanch:
Pensacola and Mobile stations finally 'tuned in' last night.

We are 7 miles from Pensaola NAS, we'll stay put - concern is the office, there high wter on a rainy day.

Ike do you have high tide link by any chance?



I read somewhere where it's suppose to be low tide early Tuesday AM. Not sure where you can link it.
No surprise that Ida is third to Bill and Fred in intensity, strength and ACE.
1554. FLH
SO HOW MUCH OF IDA DO YOU THINK SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GET IF THE EYE IS TRULY RELOCATED?
Quoting IKE:


I read somewhere where it's suppose to be low tide early Tuesday AM. Not sure where you can link it.
We get that information from our local newspaper. Don't know if you can get it there.
Quoting IKE:


I read somewhere where it's suppose to be low tide early Tuesday AM. Not sure where you can link it.
Link

Hope this works.
1557. IKE
From Dr. Lyons....pressure UP to 997 mb's.
Quoting FLH:
SO HOW MUCH OF IDA DO YOU THINK SOUTH FLORIDA WILL GET IF THE EYE IS TRULY RELOCATED?


It is currently passing South Florida and by the looks at the radar images, the most SFL is getting is debris moisture. There is the pressure gradient that will continue to kick up winds and surf.
1559. ewolk08
where is landfall looking like it may be at?
1560. IKE
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 09/10:59:40Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
088 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 3055 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 18 nm
F. 301 deg 51 kt
G. 210 deg 11 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 10 C / 3049 m
J. 14 C / 3046 m
K. 2 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0611A IDA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 74 KT NE QUAD 07:03:50Z
CNTR RAGGED
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 60KT NORTH QUAD 11:14:00Z
1561. IKE
...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
6:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9
Location: 25.8°N 88.2°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Quoting Weather456:


It is currently passing South Florida and by the looks at the radar images, the most SFL is getting is debris moisture. There is the pressure gradient that will continue to kick up winds and surf.


True. In West Palm Beach we are under a High Wind Advisory..25-35 mph. A result of the pressure graidient between Ida and high pressure.
1563. IKE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IDA COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.8N 88.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

1564. FLH
Quoting Weather456:


It is currently passing South Florida and by the looks at the radar images, the most SFL is getting is debris moisture. There is the pressure gradient that will continue to kick up winds and surf.


THANKS
1565. IKE
You can tell it's turning extra-tropical by how far the tropical storm force winds now extend out on the latest advisory...

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM."
.....


Doesn't really make any difference though.
Quoting IKE:


I read somewhere where it's suppose to be low tide early Tuesday AM. Not sure where you can link it.


Last paragraph of Dr master above
1567. IKE
Quoting tropicofcancer:


Last paragraph of Dr master above


You're right...thanks.
Quoting tropicofcancer:


Last paragraph of Dr master above
Except she sped up since he did that update so she would hit sooner than he estimated.
456 where do anticipate landfall? Local news is saying E of Mobile , im thinking W?
1570. FLH
LOOKS TO BE MOVING NNE IN THE LAST FRAMES
1571. IKE
Yesterday at this time the tropical storm force winds extended out 140 miles...

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM."....


Now....

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM."

Quoting ewolk08:
where is landfall looking like it may be at?


Current NHC is around Gulf Breeze/Fishing Bend in the Pensacola area.
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 where do anticipate landfall? Local news is saying E of Mobile , im thinking W?


I'm thinking east of Mobile also. The reason why, Ida is just due south of Mobile Bay and because she is the face of an advancing trough. It would not take much of Ida go east of Mobile.
1574. FLH
WINDS: 80 MPH PRESSURE: 993mb
...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.8N 88.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB
Good morning everyone I see FL has issued a state of Emergency I think in Escambia County they are urging coastal residents to GET OUT and even if it does lose its tropical characteristics it will still pack a punch for a large region along the Gulf Coast, West Coast of FL and later when it loops back towards the East Coast of FL. I see the GFDL remerges it back into the GOM for a brief period and strenghthens it or keeps it a a 50 knot tropical storm. How interesting and I think Ida is starting that NE turn a little sooner than expected.
Quoting Weather456:


I'm thinking east of Mobile also. The reason why, Ida is just due south of Mobile Bay and because she is the face of an advancing trough. It would not take much of Ida go east of Mobile.
Hurricane force winds are only 35mph away fom center?
Ida looking like a strange hurricane. That is definitely expanding. Hopefully she'll continue to lose her punch. Stay safe everyone. I'm out for a while.
Thank you Ida, Atlanta needs more heavy rain. I hope she hooks a hard right to Fla where the rain is needed
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hurricane force winds are only 35mph away fom center?


35 miles

When she made landfall on Central America, hurricane forced winds extended outward 15 miles.
Is it possible or probible that ida will turn East sooner than expected? The NHC show it almost making a right angle turn. Can this happen before it comes ashore?
With Ida gaining speed what are the chances of Ida flooding Atlanta again?
850-500mb mean steering
Quoting IKE:


I read somewhere where it's suppose to be low tide early Tuesday AM. Not sure where you can link it.


thE DR HAD a tidal reference in his blog
1588. tramp96
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Mornin'
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Good morning sir.
Quoting Weather456:


35 miles

When she made landfall on Central America, hurricane forced winds extended outward 15 miles.
Even overlooking the winds she is bringing some flooding rains with her.
Good Morning Storm
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
With Ida gaining speed what are the chances of Ida flooding Atlanta again?


Yea...flash flood watch issued for the Atlanta area.
looks like shes spreading out and shedding her wardrobe
1594. Detrina
who mentioned eye relocation? I didn't see anything about this. Is that a fact or a guess or....and what does it mean if it is a fact:) thx much!
I see a proud IBEW logo.. Plumbers and Steamfitters here
1596. Dakster
Quoting IKE:


I hope it's that far west.

Encouraging news.

I don't see anyone left on here talking about it going NNE or NE...lol. Or hitting peninsula Florida.



Nope. The "NE turn" bloggers are busy eating crow, wondering how the NHC could actually be correct in their forecast... Not saying they are always correct, but it does seem to look like they were pretty good with this storm.

Wouldn't it be something if someone from the NHC came to the blog to comment on that.
Every time I look at the modis shot on Dr Masters blog above, I stare at it wondering what were the NHC thinking in predicting a 45 knot tropical storm. Conditions were marginal over the NW Caribbean and marginal over the NW Caribbean Sea isnt the same as marginal in the tropical Atlantic.
1598. bjdsrq
Amazing what 8 hours can do.... she is looking absolutely pathetic this morning. Congrats to the kids in Escambia Co getting a four day weekend though. It might even be sunny and dry there tomorrow! :-)

Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
I see a proud IBEW logo.. Plumbers and Steamfitters here


Lets stay on weather, If I get off on unions I will surley be taking a 24 hour ban.
1600. FLH
Quoting Detrina:
who mentioned eye relocation? I didn't see anything about this. Is that a fact or a guess or....and what does it mean if it is a fact:) thx much!


ITS A FACT.IT CAN HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT'S FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL THIS MEANS IS THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL EXPAND
Have to check my 5 2.5 Megawatt gens closely. Storms give me quite the pucker factor. Loss of service is not an option here. I work in Atlanta's mini silicon valley. Who decided the th infrastructure should be built on a river bank
Quoting Weather456:


35 miles

When she made landfall on Central America, hurricane forced winds extended outward 15 miles.
Thats what dr. Lyons calls a Vorcane!
Someone please explain to me why schools in Pensacola are closed today, but the schools 50 miles east in Ft. Walton Beach/Destin are open today. Huh?????



since she spread out could help some benificial rains to this area of florida
SS -
you should know by now that Okaloosa is always one of the last counties to catch on to things!
LOL
Escambia made the decision early in order for shelters to be opened since they are asking for voluntary evacuations starting at 7am this morning.
Glad you are back safely from B'ham -- hope all goes well on the Harbor for you and Omaha.
Quoting sugarsand:
Someone please explain to me why schools in Pensacola are closed today, but the schools 50 miles east in Ft. Walton Beach/Destin are open today. Huh?????



Why is any School under a hurricane warning(including Mobile County) open?
I don't see much impact from this system except for the much needed rain and some wind events. Watch out for toranadoes which might have a greater presense that usual. keep posted to the oficial forecast and hope for the best, but prepare for the worst..
a while back someone, billy joel, bob dylin or someone in disguise posted a song about
"The year of the shear" can some one repost that if you still have it?
Considered Ida a kick off to the El Nino winter 2009-2010.

BBL
Quoting sugarsand:
Someone please explain to me why schools in Pensacola are closed today, but the schools 50 miles east in Ft. Walton Beach/Destin are open today. Huh?????



Same happens here in CENTRAL fL. The days they should close they don't. Makes you wonder about those in charge!Good morning all!
Quoting fwblinda:
SS -
you should know by now that Okaloosa is always one of the last counties to catch on to things!
LOL
Escambia made the decision early in order for shelters to be opened since they are asking for voluntary evacuations starting at 7am this morning.
Glad you are back safely from B'ham -- hope all goes well on the Harbor for you and Omaha.


Thanks FWBLinda,
We got the drill down in both locations.
Kids not happy going to school this am.
You take care, too.
1612. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Nope. The "NE turn" bloggers are busy eating crow, wondering how the NHC could actually be correct in their forecast... Not saying they are always correct, but it does seem to look like they were pretty good with this storm.

Wouldn't it be something if someone from the NHC came to the blog to comment on that.


LOL..they would get hammered on here over Ida. NHC was way off on forecast intensity.
Quoting sugarsand:
Someone please explain to me why schools in Pensacola are closed today, but the schools 50 miles east in Ft. Walton Beach/Destin are open today. Huh?????





Because school is cool! stay in school kids...
1614. FLH
AM I THE ONLY ONE NOTICING IDA MOVING N OR NNE?
I dont see why the news is putting landfall East AL/Fl, when Ida is already passing W of Mobile? Help please!
Quoting Weather456:
Considered Ida a kick off to the El Nino winter 2009-2010.

BBL


She's going to become a very nasty noreasterly. and the South should get some cooler weather after this system is gone (if it makes it here).
1619. IKE
Quoting FLH:
AM I THE ONLY ONE NOTICING IDA MOVING N OR NNE?


Looks to be moving almost due north at a faster rate of speed. This thing will be on land by midnight tonight.
Quoting Autistic2:
a while back someone, billy joel, bob dylin or someone in disguise posted a song about
"The year of the shear" can some one repost that if you still have it?
CycloneOz.
1623. FLH
Quoting IKE:


Looks to be moving almost due north at a faster rate of speed. This thing will be on land by midnight tonight.


I AGREE 100%, I THINK THEY NEED TO ADJUST THE TRACK JUST A LITTLE
To an untrained eye, it looks like the center is losing energy and the bulk of the activity is in a large bulge toward the Mobile and the Panhandle. Is this was going extratropical looks like (storm spreading as the eye contracts and dies?)
Link

Looks a little E of N.
Storm & 456 Good morning. It's ugly out this morning, just cloudy and stuff it's like that weather when ya get up and want to crawl right back in bed it looks so nasty. Looking at the the trees right outside the window here and the wind is blowing a little not much.

Sheri
I would not argue with NHC a bit. Looking at the water Vapor loop it has to follow the official track I just cant see it going any further NNW. My biggest concern is the area where it interacts with that Low pressure over Louisiana. This look like ripe conditions for a tornado formation.
1628. FLH
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Looks a little E of N.


I AGREE
1629. IKE
1632. P451
So how far did Ida make it? Was 105mph it? She was still getting better organized as I left the blog. Figured it was her last intensification.

Didn't expect her to be this ragged so quickly. Looks Extra-Tropical to me.


Idas starting to look like Claudette! It looks like the convection is starting to shoot NE and leaving the naked coc behind! Ida looks like she is dying!
1634. tea3781
It looks like a coma now!


Something churning up around 57 w ?
1637. IKE
Quoting P451:
So how far did Ida make it? Was 105mph it? She was still getting better organized as I left the blog. Figured it was her last intensification.

Didn't expect her to be this ragged so quickly. Looks Extra-Tropical to me.




Think 105 was tops.

It's turning extratropical. Not sure if it makes it to the coast as a tropical system.
I know there was some talk about schools, ours in St tammany parish just issued a closing. They are doing a half day. Just thought Id pass that along.
1639. bjdsrq
Quoting stormsurge39:
Idas starting to look like Claudette! It looks like the convection is starting to shoot NE and leaving the naked coc behind! Ida looks like she is dying!


Buoy near the COC showing winds barely TS force. The worst weather from her to affect the US is likely moving ashore by noon... all that rain. She has a bad case of "dry eye".
Wind impact from Ida will be minimal. I'll be surprised if anything stronger than T.S. force winds are measured in the warning areas at landfall. The main impact will be coastal erosion and flooding from surge and heavy rain. IMO, Ida will be downgraded to a T.S. later today. Also, if anybody in the Mobile area needs to get down to the west end of Dauphin Island to secure property you're probably too late. The surf was getting close to breaching yesterday afternoon and I suspect Bienville Blvd is probably flooded by now.
Ida is completly fallinf to pieces
Quoting bjdsrq:


Buoy near the COC showing winds barely TS force. The worst weather from her to affect the US is likely moving ashore by noon... all that rain. She has a bad case of "dry eye".
How strong are those winds in that approaching convection?

Thank you


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Hope this works.
Good evening from Spain!

Gale force winds have been hitting northern coasts of Spain. Storm chasers from that area have been taking amazing photographs and video!

Let me share this link.

Enjoy... And keep safe from remnants of IDA.
Quoting IKE:


Think 105 was tops.

It's turning extratropical. Not sure if it makes it to the coast as a tropical system.


Just looked myself. Kind of nice to wake up to that.
1646. beell
Dry air.
Killed the BOC disturbance
Killed 96E
Killed Ida
Ida appears to be making the transition to extratropical.
Quoting GBguy88:
I don't believe I've ever seen a cat 2 that was shaped like a pear. Something's disrupting her, certainly.


yes--do you think something was messing with ida---sure looks like it

Station 42039
NDBC
Location: 28.791N 86.008W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.97 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.6 F
Dew Point: 69.3 F
Water Temperature: 76.8 F
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Ida appears to be making the transition to extratropical.

Yup.
Dat's a sheared TC...
Quoting Yalahaman:
Same happens here in CENTRAL fL. The days they should close they don't. Makes you wonder about those in charge!Good morning all!

I have been wondering that over here in PCB. People say I am over reacting, but it is going to get nasty out here and everyone is acting if there is no storm on the horizon. It really makes me wonder about those in charge as well. I have to advise my families to take precautions, that will be a challenge since it is not the public norm.
Shear, cooler water and a strong November trough didn't help either.
1655. divdog
Quoting Dakster:


Nope. The "NE turn" bloggers are busy eating crow, wondering how the NHC could actually be correct in their forecast... Not saying they are always correct, but it does seem to look like they were pretty good with this storm.

Wouldn't it be something if someone from the NHC came to the blog to comment on that.
you cant find any of them right now. where is BAP and miamihurricanes09 after they reamed me yesterday for saying it would not make the turn until shore
I'm happy to see that Ida is fizzling out!
Quoting IKE:


Think 105 was tops.

It's turning extratropical. Not sure if it makes it to the coast as a tropical system.
Quoting MsBlanch:

Thank you


Did it do what you wanted ?
1659. bjdsrq
Funny to see the media finally all on the scene now hyping it up, calling it a hurricane, talking about the very heavy winds and rains that are coming at daybreak Tues. Time for them to take a break and look at the water vapor and IR loops.
Poor Ida. LOL She's falling apart or going through the change...not sure which one.
1661. MahFL
New convection near the center though.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Ida appears to be making the transition to extratropical.


yes it is--expect ida to have about 43mph average winds when it hits---ain't god great--
will not be able to raise the price of oil,on account of this one
Long-range radar from Mobile:
1664. beell
Quoting bjdsrq:
Funny to see the media finally all on the scene now hyping it up, calling it a hurricane, talking about the very heavy winds and rains that are coming at daybreak Tues. Time for them to take a break and look at the water vapor and IR loops.


That is pretty funny. And despite some negatives here and there, it is why this site rocks!
Mobile, AL radar. Heavy rain on north side starting to show up pretty well. Looks like we'll get a good soaking later today.

Mobile Radar
1666. RJT185
...we kinda sorta could use an update DR. M.
Ida's windfield from satellite/surface/HH ob analysis as of about 7 hours ago.

there seems to be an area of cyclonic turnng near 26N 58W. this is about 500miles notheast of the northern leewards. this morning QS shows no surface low but this area bears watching
Quoting STORMKILLER007:


yes it is--expect ida to have about 43mph average winds when it hits---ain't god great--
will not be able to raise the price of oil,on account of this one
watch them do it anyway!
good morning all :)
1672. P451
Quoting IKE:


Think 105 was tops.

It's turning extratropical. Not sure if it makes it to the coast as a tropical system.


Thanks.

Yeah, looking closer it's in transition for certain. At this point it'd be splitting hairs though I suppose. A storm is a storm.

Quoting StormW:
Station 42003 (LLNR 1395) - E GULF 262 nm South of Panama City, FL

Station 42039 (LLNR 141) - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL

Station 42036 (LLNR 855) - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL


Storm, can you or someone tell me the significance of the buoy readings and what we should look for as the storm gets closer. I am near panama city. thank you!
I am soooo glad this isn't September. I'd be out filling gas cans and hoarding canned goods about now. Unfortunately, I still expect to have to do a bunch of raking tomorrow or Wednesday........bummer.
1675. bjdsrq
Those with visions of "punching the core" will probably be "punching the sand" instead. Big risk with these late season storms in this complex enviro. This storm has been a forecasting nightmare.
Quoting StormW:
Storm it seems like Ida is not packing that punch by looks anymore, will she still have anything in her to knock out power and trees down when she makes landfall? Are her looks deceiving?
1677. P451
Quoting stormsurge39:
watch them do it anyway!


The prices will rise based off of the production cut due to the evacuations of the rigs. It's not easy to shut those things down and then restart them. It's not easy to replace their production.

So it will have an impact...damage or no damage.

Also everything HAS to be inspected before they start operations again. Not to do so could be negligent and could cause a catastrophe if even the slightest damage occurred.

They're complex machines. You don't just kick the tires and turn a key and all is well.

A weather geek question way above my pay grade:

Is it possible at this point to tell what sort of tornadic activity Ida may bring?
i like to know about potential for rain because i live on a bad road that had been impassable a couple of times this year due to torrential rain. i had to park my car at a gas station a few miles away and be taken back and forth by my husband with our big truck which is a hassle. our road caved in actually
Quoting bjdsrq:
Those with visions of "punching the core" will probably be "punching the sand" instead. Big risk with these late season storms in this complex enviro. This storm has been a forecasting nightmare.


Wasted trip perhaps? :)
Has anyone looked at the steering currents - or is that a factor?
screen shot of Buoy 42003 data:



1684. IKE
Quoting presslord:
A weather geek question way above my pay grade:

Is it possible at this point to tell what sort of tornadic activity Ida may bring?


Based on this satellite.....nil. This thing is getting....

(a)sheared.
(b)in cooler waters.
(c)transitioning to extra-tropical.
(d)probably not a hurricane anymore.

I would imagine hurricane warnings could be dropped to tropical storm warnings...soon.

Benefit of all of the cold fronts that have made it through here....

1686. P451




Floater - Infrared Channel 2 Loop

Short Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop


Looks like a diffient transition occuring with IDA
Quoting P451:


The prices will rise based off of the production cut due to the evacuations of the rigs. It's not easy to shut those things down and then restart them. It's not easy to replace their production.

So it will have an impact...damage or no damage.

Also everything HAS to be inspected before they start operations again. Not to do so could be negligent and could cause a catastrophe if even the slightest damage occurred.

They're complex machines. You don't just kick the tires and turn a key and all is well.

I understand that and expect a little something. I dont like it when it seems like in the past after storms, with no damage to any rigs, that price increases drag on for more than a month.
1689. FLdewey
Well if Reed's staying home you know it's a bust... BACK UP!!! ;-)
watch south of the low pressure as it moves across n florida for severe weather
on our local news it says the bad weather will make landfall at 6 am tomorrow morning but on the weather maps it kinda looks sooner than that. any projections about andfall time ? I have to commute from panama city area to ft walton area from 6-7:30 am and I wonder if i should leave real early or late or what.
Quoting presslord:
A weather geek question way above my pay grade:

Is it possible at this point to tell what sort of tornadic activity Ida may bring?


Hard to say right now Press. Ida is falling apart and changing direction so fast there's no telling when or where any tornado watches will be issued.
so if it is extratropical then it is a noreaster, right??
1694. P451
Quoting IKE:


Based on this satellite.....nil. This thing is getting....

(a)sheared.
(b)in cooler waters.
(c)transitioning to extra-tropical.
(d)probably not a hurricane anymore.

I would imagine hurricane warnings could be dropped to tropical storm warnings...soon.

Benefit of all of the cold fronts that have made it through here....



I would keep an eye on that trailing tail as this continues to head extratropical. That could be the severe weather threat especially if the system turns more easterly and that feature follows. Something the peninsula of Florida needs to keep an eye on IMO.
1695. IKE
Quoting twhcracker:
on our local news it says the bad weather will make landfall at 6 am tomorrow morning but on the weather maps it kinda looks sooner than that. any projections about andfall time ? I have to commute from panama city area to ft walton area from 6-7:30 am and I wonder if i should leave real early or late or what.


It should be through here in the overnight hours....
1696. P451
Quoting stormsurge39:
I understand that and expect a little something. I dont like it when it seems like in the past after storms, with no damage to any rigs, that price increases drag on for more than a month.


Yeah, in those instances, it's uncalled for.

Quoting IKE:


It should be through here in the overnight hours....


Are you planning on leaving your house still?
Morning all,
Ida looks like she's starting to nudge NNE. Interesting storm for sure!
Not impressive at all. Fizzled due to high shear. expect some rough weather luckily no Ivan here.
1701. tea3781
Is Ida moving more towards the east. I cant tell? I can tell its not moving west anymore though!
1702. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Are you planning on leaving your house still?


No. I'll stay.
1704. P451
44203 - 260mi south of Pensacola

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Morning all,
Ida looks like she's starting to nudge NNE. Interesting storm for sure!


Yep, she's under the influence of the trough now and is making the turn toward the north-northeast.
Quoting tea3781:
Is Ida moving more towards the east. I cant tell? I can tell its not moving west anymore though!


Who knows for what I see yes it looks like it but once again the center is exposed so for all that it matter this is not a Hurricane anymore. It looks extratropical to me.
Doggommit!!! All I wanted was the day off tomorrow!!
Quoting STORMKILLER007:


yes it is--expect ida to have about 43mph average winds when it hits---ain't god great--
will not be able to raise the price of oil,on account of this one


Yes He is!
1710. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009


...CNTRL GULF CST...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE
CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LVL ELY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
IDA AND EXISTING SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT SOME OVERLAP MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE BETWEEN
CONVERGENT/STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW LVL WIND FIELD NE OF IDA...AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPROACHING
THE CST. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR CONVECTIVE
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST. BUT WITH THE TRUE
MARITIME AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WITH MID LVL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY WARM...PROSPECTS FOR AN
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT APPEAR LOW
.

ANY SVR WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR
MAY INVOLVE CONVECTION TOO SHALLOW/WEAK TO PRODUCE THUNDER...
.
Looks like Ida is gone. completely fell apart
those dumb models are good
1713. IKE
Water vapor tells the tale. Look at the dry-air moving into it...

One can really see how the High that is steering IDA is breaking down but, not moved much at all yet...

400-850mb TC MSLP/Vmax: 970-989mb/60-90kts

MOst present


-6 hours


-12 hours


1715. IKE
1315UTC visible...

Quoting Ossqss:
Big view of Ida or what's left of her :)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12


Thats a pretty cool site. From that, it appears Ida will pretty much break up and just cause a nasty day along the gulf coast tomorrow. I'm not even sure I'll bother to move the stuff outside around the pool
1717. P451
24 Hours of Ida







24 Hours of the hybrid system that seems to be intensifying quite a bit this AM.








It's still very interesting setup and the outcome is unknown especially if these two get together.
The PanHandle INLAND Flooding could be very bad as Ida gets stuck making the LOop down the State of Florida.....




That cold water and that shear did the trick on Ida, I wasn't expecting a complete shut-down to extra-tropical this quick.
Storm is degenerating rapidly, more bark than bite now, Truth is its going POOF
Quoting TampaSpin:
One can really see how the High that is steering IDA is breaking down but, not moved much at all yet...

400-850mb TC MSLP/Vmax: 970-989mb/60-90kts

MOst present


-6 hours


-12 hours




Is it supposed to move?
1722. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
The PanHandle INLAND Flooding could be very bad as Ida gets stuck making the LOop down the State of Florida.....






Hybrid and Ida merging and becoming an intense extratropical system.

Something a number of us talked about happening literally what feels like a week ago - and in depth at that - is coming together.

Pretty cool.
Quoting TampaSpin:
The PanHandle INLAND Flooding could be very bad as Ida gets stuck making the LOop down the State of Florida.....






oh boy.
1724. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Storm is degenerating rapidly, more bark than bite now, Truth is its going POOF


Yup...right before our eyes.

Great news.
Quoting P451:
24 Hours of Ida







24 Hours of the hybrid system that seems to be intensifying quite a bit this AM.








It's still very interesting setup and the outcome is unknown especially if these two get together.


They are getting quite close, and with that, I shall bbl.
Hi all. Is there any probability this could bring some H2o to VA or is the high going to shove it out to sea?
1727. P451
Ease up, Poofers, remember the dynamics here: She is going extratropical and she is merging with the hybrid system. The wind field will spread out and many people can probably expect some gale force winds, heavy rain, and pounding surf.

This isn't turning into a rain shower event.

This is still a big storm scenario taking shape.

We're not talking about a lone tropical system that's degenerating into a naked swirl and becoming harmless.

1728. guygee
Looks like the more moderate right-casters were correct, except that Ida will soon be reduced to not much more than gales and rainy squalls.
1729. divdog
Quoting RitaEvac:
Storm is degenerating rapidly, more bark than bite now, Truth is its going POOF
its going extratropical hardly poof.
thanks Tampa -
1731. 996tt
Haha, funny when everyone just repeats TWC Lyons forecast right after he goes on air. Yep, Ike, "dry air to the west being sucked over the top of it."

Cool. I am heading out to Pier. Bummer course. We had nice swell yesterday at the pier. A few barrells, lots of closeout, and caught a few nice ones. Nothing but slop today. Wish I could make a trip to the jungle, but have to work . . .
Will be like a squall line that moves through ahead of a cold front, but will last a while longer.
1733. P451
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hi all. Is there any probability this could bring some H2o to VA or is the high going to shove it out to sea?


There is some debate as to whether or not the gulf systems will merge and ride up the east coast - spawning a pretty big nor'easter event. Or, they might cross Florida and head out to sea.

As of yet that's tough to call. Need to see how Ida and the Hybrid come together first.

I think things are trending towards this whole mess combining and riding up through the SE to off the Delmarva as a large extratropical system.

1734. divdog
Quoting RitaEvac:
Will be like a squall line that moves through ahead of a cold front, but will last a while longer.
not buying that anaylsis especially if it can tap the other low.
1735. P451
5-DAY QPF TOTALS

Been saying all week not to concentrate too much as to where the landfall of the Hybird Ida will be .....Severe Weather will be worse with a Hybird system than with a Cat 1 hurricane....IMO
1737. divdog
Quoting TampaSpin:
Been saying all week not to concentrate too much as to where the landfall of the Hybird Ida will be .....Severe Weather will be worse with a Hybird system than with a Cat 1 hurricane....IMO
will this create a tornado threat.
Quoting P451:
24 Hours of Ida







24 Hours of the hybrid system that seems to be intensifying quite a bit this AM.








It's still very interesting setup and the outcome is unknown especially if these two get together.
Quoting P451:
Ease up, Poofers, remember the dynamics here: She is going extratropical and she is merging with the hybrid system. The wind field will spread out and many people can probably expect some gale force winds, heavy rain, and pounding surf.

This isn't turning into a rain shower event.

This is still a big storm scenario taking shape.

We're not talking about a lone tropical system that's degenerating into a naked swirl and becoming harmless.



2 very good post......yes the Xtrop. LOw is getting stronger....the mix of the two will be something to watch....
Here in Ascension Parish (LA) it's finally raining, got a pretty bad squall line fixing to come thru due to our lil hybrid system.
1740. guygee
Quoting 996tt:
Haha, funny when everyone just repeats TWC Lyons forecast


Who is Lyons? I haven't watched TWC since they quit playing Pat Metheny's "Morning Train"
1741. P451
Ida and the Hybrid getting together.


Vort 850mb



Vort 700mb

1742. P451
...CNTRL GULF CST...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE
CNTRL GULF CST TODAY/TONIGHT AS LOW LVL ELY FLOW STRENGTHENS BETWEEN
IDA AND EXISTING SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
SUGGEST THAT SOME OVERLAP MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE BETWEEN
CONVERGENT/STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW LVL WIND FIELD NE OF IDA...AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOW LVL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPROACHING
THE CST. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR CONVECTIVE
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST. BUT WITH THE TRUE
MARITIME AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WITH MID LVL
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLY WARM...PROSPECTS FOR AN
APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT APPEAR LOW. ANY SVR WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR
MAY INVOLVE CONVECTION TOO SHALLOW/WEAK TO PRODUCE THUNDER.
amazing convention
TampaSpin,

Was the high already supposed to have eroded? It doesnt look to be budging just yet... Ida and the hybrid are getting sandwiched.
Ida, or whats left of her, is commin to my house. I'm glad it's weakening.
1746. P451
And here is for Day 2:


HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO CONTINUE NWD DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY SUPPORTED BY GRADIENT BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT MAKES LANDFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE EWD. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS
FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ENELY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STABLE AIR INLAND WHERE
THE LARGEST 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST PRIOR TO IDA MOVING
ONSHORE. GIVEN THE WARM CORE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S WILL BE NEEDED TO DEVELOP SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR DEEPER MORE ROBUST CONVECTION AND SUPERCELL THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE RICHER MOISTURE MAY NOT ADVECT ONSHORE UNTIL THE
CENTER IS WELL INLAND WITH 70S DEWPOINTS LIKELY TRAILING THE MORE
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. NET RESULT IS THAT THE LARGER HODOGRAPHS
MAY NOT BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. WHILE
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...OVERALL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
1747. divdog
Quoting P451:
Ida and the Hybrid getting together.


Vort 850mb



Vort 700mb

what would be the implications of the 2 storms combining. More energy into ida ???
Quoting divdog:
will this create a tornado threat.


I would think so....Actually i would say big time threat.....IM MY OPINION only....i'm no professional...These will not be the same tornado's one would find in Kansas. Much smaller spinners but probably a lot of them would be possible. Heck a normal cold front coming through Florida causes Tornados. The combined spinning from a tropical system will add to that threat.
First visible this morning makes storm look better than I thought it would. Maybe making turn ne now.
Are the models still looping Ida?
1751. P451
Now, those outlooks can change, especially as this complex situation continues to evolve (we don't yet know the end result of the system mergers) but even now there is a chance for some severe weather.

Those in the paths of these systems would be unwise to just go about their business without checking in periodically to see how things have progressed.
ida will be one great tornado when it hits.
Maybe not poof, but not a whole lot to get crazy about. It will be a windy nasty couple of days..before the days of computer models, etc, we'd be saying "pretty nasty out, eh?"
Quoting IKE:


Yup...right before our eyes.

Great news.


Unless you drove for 9 hours to film a storm that isn't really much of a storm. :)
Quoting alaina1085:
TampaSpin,

Was the high already supposed to have eroded? It doesnt look to be budging just yet... Ida and the hybrid are getting sandwiched.


Looks like its doing as the models expected....
West end of Dauphin Island taking on water now. So High tide with a little rise and it's already starting here.
What kind of effects will IDA have for NE Florida??? And when??? Thanks.
1758. P451
Quoting divdog:
what would be the implications of the 2 storms combining. More energy into ida ???


That would be more for the experts to explain in detail (like storm, 456, tampa) but what you have, is just a whole lot of energy coming together. The more energy the larger and potentially stronger the end result could be.

A number of models now merge the system and ride it up the east coast of the US.

So...it's trending towards being a pretty big event. Large swath of heavy rain. Gale force winds and pounding surf at the coasts. Occasional breezy conditions further inland.

For most, it will simply be "Not a nice day, jeez, you think we got enough rain yet!?" type scenario. For some there could be worse problems. Heavy rain + a storm force wind gust isn't good on the trees. Coastlines and those near rivers should see flooding. Maybe an outside threat of a tornado.

Things of that nature. I think some are thinking there is just Ida, and, she's winding down, and when storms do that they turn into a naked swirl and that's it.

But, this is different, she's going extratropical, she's seemingly merging with another intensifying extatropical hybrid to her west, and that is a LOT of energy in a prime environment for extratropical development.


...With that, as said, the experts could better detail this with their updates. So check in on Tampa, Crown Weather, Storm, 456, and the other notables.
1759. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Unless you drove for 9 hours to film a storm that isn't really much of a storm. :)


LOL...good point.
1760. divdog
Quoting P451:


That would be more for the experts to explain in detail (like storm, 456, tampa) but what you have, is just a whole lot of energy coming together. The more energy the larger and potentially stronger the end result could be.

A number of models now merge the system and ride it up the east coast of the US.

So...it's trending towards being a pretty big event. Large swath of heavy rain. Gale force winds and pounding surf at the coasts. Occasional breezy conditions further inland.

For most, it will simply be "Not a nice day, jeez, you think we got enough rain yet!?" type scenario. For some there could be worse problems. Heavy rain + a storm force wind gust isn't good on the trees. Coastlines and those near rivers should see flooding. Maybe an outside threat of a tornado.

Things of that nature. I think some are thinking there is just Ida, and, she's winding down, and when storms do that they turn into a naked swirl and that's it.

But, this is different, she's going extratropical, she's seemingly merging with another intensifying extatropical hybrid to her west, and that is a LOT of energy in a prime environment for extratropical development.


...With that, as said, the experts could better detail this with their updates. So check in on Tampa, Crown Weather, Storm, 456, and the other notables.
Nice explanation. I'm in the Fort Walton area and the rain shield is closing in. Winds are gusting to maybe 20-25mph. Weather channel says 40-60mph sustained tonite. That sound a little high but we will see.
Mets here in Louisiana not seeing the big influx or warm moist tropical air and have scaled back flood warnings somewhat....but you never know. Use caution when driving in heavy rain especially in underpasses.
Here is the list of FL/AL beach cams for those so inclined.

http://www.brett-robinson.com/webcams.html
http://www.bamabeachcams.com/
http://www.gulfcondos.com/webcam/
http://flhurricane.com/jjohnston/
http://www.lulusathomeport.com/webcam.php
http://www.alohasurf.net/
http://www.destinpasslive.com/navarre-beach.html
http://www.islandempress.com/webcam/
http://destincam.com/
http://innerlightsurf.com/pages/crosscam.html
http://piercam.net/
http://204.215.38.82/view/index.shtml
http://remaxsouthern.com/cam.htm
http://www.destinpasslive.com/sandestin-beach.html
http://sowal.com/beachcam.html
http://www.schooners.com/multimedia/beachcam.htm
The SSTs in the Atlantic off of FL look warm but not hot. If Ida makes it across FL and does follow the model tracks could we see Tropical-EXtraTropical-Tropical storm? Any body got a feeling this storm may hit the GS and blow back up? After all this is the year for re-curving storms.
1764. P451
Quoting foggymyst:
Are the models still looping Ida?


Yes. However, there are a lot of dynamics taking place. Ida going extratropical. The merging of Ida and the extratropical hybrid. The high pressure which will cause the larger merged storm to become baroclinic and potentially intensify on it's own later in the period.

The models tend to not do well when scenarios like this come together. They're unsure how to read the interaction of the multiple systems over the extended forecast period.

Once the two systems merge then I think you'll see model runs in more agreement.

What we know now is that the hybrid and Ida appear to have begun merging, Ida has appeared to begun extratropical transformation, and the Panhandle of Florida seems a good bet for the landfall of this event.

From there, not sure, but I will say the erosion of the High would lend support to the theory that the system will ride up through the SE coast rather than stall and migrate southward over Florida.

If the latter did occur you'd see a weak overall system doing so as time progressed. Florida would see the winds die down and see isolated showers and thunderstorms develop on and off with the remains.

Now, if Ida decided to not merge with the hybrid, and tracked east over north florida in response to the high? Then the trailing tail of Ida could strengthen into a squall line that gets dragged across the state.


So, you can see what we have here: 3 or 4 scenarios.

That will change as we near this evening.

1765. tacoman
once again i want to take my hats off to the NHC for doing a superb job on ida...these people earn the big bucks for a reason..a job well done guys we are so lucky to have you..A SHOUT OUT TO THE NHC!!!!tacoman


Not looking so good anymore. Really is displaced looking near the center.
1768. P451
Quoting divdog:
Nice explanation. I'm in the Fort Walton area and the rain shield is closing in. Winds are gusting to maybe 20-25mph. Weather channel says 40-60mph sustained tonite. That sound a little high but we will see.


It depends on the transition of Ida to extratropical. She'll lose her "80 mph" core winds, but then her 40mph winds will spread out. If she absorbs the hybrid the injection of energy could strengthen the entity back up to a 50-60mph extratropical system.

So, there is uncertainty here.


...I think that's about all I can say about what I see out there and the potential results.

Keep an eye on: How Ida transitions. How she and the hybrid merge. How the High pressure system continues to erode/weaken or maybe maintain itself.

Those are your players.

SSTs and shear no longer are. In fact, shear helps to strengthen extratropical systems...and SSTs at this point are of no real consequence.

..END RESULT? Just keep tuning back in to see how things progressed.
Looks like IDA could curve around, once ashore, and give NE Florida TS winds and rain, etc., in a couple of days????
I'm not an expert by any means but to me it doesn't look like the H is eroding as fast as some are saying it is. I may be wrong and I probably am. I just do not see it. Someone please explain
1771. P451
Quoting StormChaser81:


Not looking so good anymore. Really is displaced looking near the center.


Decoupled and undergoing extratropical transition and beginning to merge with the hybrid to the west.

I expect her to maybe, on the side of caution, to be labeled a 60mph TS "that is undergoing extratopical transition" in the next advisory.
1772. guygee
Quoting AresPathfinder:
The SSTs in the Atlantic off of FL look warm but not hot. If Ida makes it across FL and does follow the model tracks could we see Tropical-EXtraTropical-Tropical storm? Any body got a feeling this storm may hit the GS and blow back up? After all this is the year for re-curving storms.


I think a big nor'easter has been in the cards for quite some time. Question is whether Ida get absorbed or her naked swirl gets left behind in a dissipating depression.
Down here in Palm Beach County, we're getting close to TS force winds, but without a tropical storm. I'm guessing it has to do with the pressure gradient between the high and Ida?
1774. beell
Where's the hybrid?
Quoting IKE:


Yup...right before our eyes.

Great news.


YUP SOON BE DOWN TO 43MPH AT LANDFALL--AVERAGE
WINDS---GOD IS GREAT--GOING--GOING--GOING
ALMOST GONE
South MS in the clear now yall think????
1777. P451
Spaghetti....not too trustworthy especially the looping ones. I'd lend more trust to those exiting this event through the SE towards the delmarva coastline.

1778. tacoman
ida seems to be sreading out but weakening...it does seem that ida is trying to spread her wealth to everyone in la miss alabama and fla...it really looks to me like we are all going to experience tropical storm force winds and some spurts of heavy rain...we sure dont need the rain we can take the wind we get that in a heavy thunderstorm..one good thing the nws seems they have lifted the flash flood watch now thats a good thing..i hope they are correct with this...tacoman
I am about an hour behind in catching up on the blog comments, but it looks like the Hybrid and Ida are starting to merge.
1780. augfan
IMHO, it's almost over. From NOAA, JAX- wind today in St. Johns county gusting to 35 and that's the highest predicted wind anywhere. SCA from 20 nm to 60 nm, NO in-shore SCA at all.

Tomorrow, "heavy rain to one inch", off and on, all day, entire mess debauching into the Atlantic tomorrow night or sooner.

Colder behind the blob which barely will still exist.

Rips will be murderous though.
Quoting P451:


Decoupled and undergoing extratropical transition and beginning to merge with the hybrid to the west.

I expect her to maybe, on the side of caution, to be labeled a 60mph TS "that is undergoing extratopical transition" in the next advisory.


Ya I doubt she is going to be classified as a hurricane by tonight.
1782. IKE
Quoting P451:


Decoupled and undergoing extratropical transition and beginning to merge with the hybrid to the west.

I expect her to maybe, on the side of caution, to be labeled a 60mph TS "that is undergoing extratopical transition" in the next advisory.


Sounds about right.
Quoting tornadofan:
Mobile/Pensacola hourly reports showing winds


All the pressures rising or steady. Buoys showing same thing.
1784. P451
Quoting beell:
Where's the hybrid?


That giant mess you see south of LA.

Quoting P451:
24 Hours of Ida







24 Hours of the hybrid system that seems to be intensifying quite a bit this AM.








It's still very interesting setup and the outcome is unknown especially if these two get together.


Wow! Both loops are really interesting. I have quote them in our thread in Cazatormentas. I hope it will not disturb you.

In the first one I can see IDA being disrupted by vertical wind shear and, in my opinion, just beginning an extratropical transition.

Very interesting are the two squall lines that have developed at the west of IDA circulation.
1786. IKE
Look at the pressure at this buoy...28.8N and 86W....

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 15.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.01 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 69.6 °F
Anybody know why the Pensacola radar is malfunctioning? Bad Timing!
Quoting PcolaDan:


All the pressures rising or steady. Buoys showing same thing.


Excellent point! Dare I say RIP? (Ducks for cover...)
1789. beell
That's the mid level trough.
1790. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:


All the pressures rising or steady. Buoys showing same thing.


Amazing their so high...and rising!

I sense a downgrade coming from the NHC.
1791. K8eCane
morning everybody
stay on your guard down in florida and dont disreguard the strength of a noreaster. they can be hell on wheels
1792. P451
Have a good morning....we'll see how things look this afternoon as the transitioning and potential merging takes place.
1793. tacoman
ike i do believe you are right...the hybrid s of the la coast is looking better by the minute ...this will probably be the dominant feature...tacoman
ok so what can South Mississippi expect if and when these two things collide?? Or what can anyone expect?
Quoting tacoman:
once again i want to take my hats off to the NHC for doing a superb job on ida...these people earn the big bucks for a reason..a job well done guys we are so lucky to have you..A SHOUT OUT TO THE NHC!!!!tacoman


Here, Here !! All the NHC bashers are gettin their crow plate ready.
1796. tacoman
addict could be the twilight zone...very interesting..tacoman
Good morning, Ida looks like a real mess, I'm having a hard time trying figure out where the exact COC is, looks like multiple cocs competing this morning.
1798. K8eCane
NHC does the best they can. No one should bash them
1799. IKE
...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
9:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9
Location: 26.5°N 88.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
1800. P451
Quoting beell:
That's the mid level trough.


Give post 1717 a look. 24 hour loops of both Ida and the Hybrid.

The trough has been moving in from the west kicking the hybrid off to the East helping to force a merger with Ida who was held West by the blocking (and now eroding) High over the SE.

1801. IKE
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG
THE GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA
RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA
FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS IDA APPROACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

RAINS FROM IDA WILL BE REACHING THE COAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.

A DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.5N 88.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

1802. tacoman
the NHC is our life line and we should be greatful to the great job they do...tacoman
Quoting guygee:


Who is Lyons? I haven't watched TWC since they quit playing Pat Metheny's "Morning Train"

Dr Steve Lyons, retired Aggie prof in tropical met, now TWC expert. The only reason TWC has graced my TV in the last 10 years.
1804. P451
Quoting Chucktown:


Here, Here !! All the NHC bashers are gettin their crow plate ready.


NHC on Ida from the beginning.

Track: A
Intensity Forecasts: F
Timing (Forward Motion: F

It's just the simple facts.

It was a VERY dynamic setup and forecasting errors were going to be large. It's entirely understandable.

But, the facts are there with this event. That's all I'm going to say on that.
SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

I have added a River Flooding map in the Graphics above to watch. I would expect as the HYBRID system stalls for a while a severe inland flooding event could occur. If you right click the graphic and open a new window you can zoom into your location as the graphic updates automatically as updated from the National Weather Service.

I would also expect to see a wide spread amount of a Severe Weather threat in the forms of Tornados NorthEast and South of where the Hybird IDA makes land fall. Watch the graphics above and refresh your browser as need for continues up to the minute updates as all refresh.
Thanks P451, really agree with the wait and see tag-line on this one. IMO think this storm will not make it to the NE never have. It may be a fish event or break up over the Bahamas, but way to early to say without serious wishcasting.
Another "+" for the tacoman...
1808. IKE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS IDA APPROACHES THE COAST.



...IDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG
THE GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.


Quoting K8eCane:
NHC does the best they can. No one should bash them

The only thing this place has over the NHC is sheer number of eyeballs. (Not going say what derogatory thoughts I have about what many of those eyeballs are attached to.)
9:00 AM CST Mon Nov 9
Location: 26.5°N 88.3°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Taco probably got it for "religious" comment. Will Ida make landfall? Looks like she's slowed.
strong westerlies have pretty much decapitated what was left of the cyclone. Not much left to make landfall now.

adrian
I dont know I think Ida could have one more trick in the bag left, she developing a nice moisture feed from the south last couple loops look very interesting on the ir rainbow at nhc. Some storms firing next to center, and big feeder squall line forming to her east. Lets see if it persists. If it does look out central n.Fl.
If it was a vote, the nor'easter would be a negative.

But, sometimes, one model gets it right and the rest are out to lunch. Which one is right?



Hah! So much for the CMC's skillful season...doing really bad with Ida/Gulf Low/Cold Front.
Sends Ida right back down between Cuba and the Yucatan: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2009110900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
with the news that it's now a TS why did the cone move over to the west more???? Most of MS is now in it.
Quoting atmoaggie:

The only thing this place has over the NHC is sheer number of eyeballs. (Not going say what derogatory thoughts I have about what many of those eyeballs are attached to.)


Well, as long as they have flashlights they should be all right, shouldn't they? ;)
Quoting Babsjohnson:
Anybody know why the Pensacola radar is malfunctioning? Bad Timing!


KEVX WSR-88D IS DOWN FOR MAJOR MECHANICAL REPAIRS ON THE RADAR PEDESTAL. ESTIMAT
ED TIME TO RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE 16 NOVEMBER.
Quoting Babsjohnson:
Anybody know why the Pensacola radar is malfunctioning? Bad Timing!

I thought they used Mobile's radar...

Looks functional.
I though stormtop/stormkat/stromtop/taco had closed down his weather office for the duration...was he not saying that the season is over? Could it be that his 25 years of experience let him down here?
I had faith that Ida would bring me a land falling hurricane this year. Oh well.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


KEVX WSR-88D IS DOWN FOR MAJOR MECHANICAL REPAIRS ON THE RADAR PEDESTAL. ESTIMAT
ED TIME TO RETURN TO SERVICE WILL BE 16 NOVEMBER.

Oh, the NW FL site...
1823. IKE
Memo to Stephanie Abrams of TWC: Take a couple of blood pressure pills. My gosh, you're so hyped up on air.
Quoting P451:


NHC on Ida from the beginning.

Track: A
Intensity Forecasts: F
Timing (Forward Motion: F

It's just the simple facts.

It was a VERY dynamic setup and forecasting errors were going to be large. It's entirely understandable.

But, the facts are there with this event. That's all I'm going to say on that.


intensity an F?
How? SO it got stronger in the Carib than they thought but it is already weakening and going to make landfall right around what they thought! It is hilarious how a bunch of novice weather watchers can think they can actually give an expert a grade!
The facts:

Ida is a TS not a hurricane (and that might be generous) The track shifted significantly to the west Mobile or even Pascagoula. It is extremely disorganized but it will bring some nasty weather today in about an Hour (we will start feeling it) tomorrow I doubt we will have severe weather but it will be windy and unstable so some thunder storms can be expected. The biggest threat is Flooding and Tornadoes so as always keep listening tht official forecast. But the most important of all I AM OFF TOMORROW YEAH!!
The satellite signature has also degraded significantly. In fact, if you ask me ida no longer looks like a tropical cyclone.
From my Biloxi home, I can hear the HH getting cranked up.
Quoting IKE:
Memo to Stephanie Abrams of TWC: Take a couple of blood pressure pills. My gosh, you're so hyped up on air.



She's bouncing off the walls more than usual today.
1829. divdog
Quoting Floodman:
I though stormtop/stormkat/stromtop/taco had closed down his weather office for the duration...was he not saying that the season is over? Could it be that his 25 years of experience let him down here?
he's back and patting himself on the back for his perfect forecast of ida. things never change.
1830. tacoman
can you imagine stph covering a cat 5..thet would have to give her cpr..
Well, it's Monday morning - so where's the update, Dr. Jeff Masters?
Quoting IKE:
Memo to Stephanie Abrams of TWC: Take a couple of blood pressure pills. My gosh, you're so hyped up on air.


Methanie Abrams.....LOL
1833. bjdsrq
Quoting K8eCane:
NHC does the best they can. No one should bash them


Like any US govt org, they are too overloaded with beaurocrats and politics. This is why private sector forecasters do a better job with these systems. Not as much BS in the way.
Tampa

Most reports I have seen this morning have stated that the severe weather will be minimal. Why do you feel it is going to be widespread?

Thanks!!
1835. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Methanie Abrams.....LOL


I'm not sure what her problem is....just unnerving.
1836. divdog
Quoting hurricane23:
The satellite signature has also degraded significantly. In fact, if you ask me ida no longer looks like a tropical cyclone.
its not tropical, its becoming extratropical
1837. IKE
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE DATA THAT SUPPORTED HURRICANE INTENSITY WERE
OBTAINED AROUND 07Z...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS
BEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING DURING THE MORNING. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
AND WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SHORTLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 12Z SHOWED
WINDS OF 50-55 KT IN THE CORE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE INSTRUMENT
DID NOT QUITE RESOLVE THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 60 KT. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE
CYCLONE AROUND 18Z.

WITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS.

THE LAST AIRCRAFT CENTER FIX SHOWED THE 700 MB- AND SURFACE CENTERS
DECOUPLING...AND SINCE THEN THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT
TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT
340/15. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. IDA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-LATITUDE
SYSTEM.

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CENTER OF IDA IS LOSING SIGNIFICANCE IN
TERMS OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS STORM. STRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINS ARE MOVING WELL
AHEAD OF THE CENTER. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS IDA
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 26.5N 88.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 28.6N 88.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.4N 88.2W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
ROFL...Methanie!
1840. NEwxguy
Nope,Ida is not coming my way as a nor'easter,a nice high is going to be blocking any attempt to come north.
1841. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:


I'm not sure what her problem is....just unnerving.


I think her and Roker are having a 'America's most annoying weather personality contest'.
Quoting DestinJeff:


this place also happens to have numerous residents with Tropical Forecasting Ants and other animals, as well as "film room" analysis of every frame of satellite

and don't forget we also have a better understanding of how a place can be "due" a landfalling system (something the NHC refuses to acknowledge). folks here also have vivid memory of every major landfalling hurricane since "the current active period began in 1995" and are able to formulate forecasts based on those memories.


OK...that's the funniest post of the last 72 hours...and subtly done, too...
A little colder cloud tops associated with our hybrid friend. (Which burns gas and has an electric motor.)

so seems we have two basic schools of thought, 1. ida is kaput dont even worry
2. ida and hybrid system are merging to becoming an intense weather event.

all i want to know... is this gonna be terrible rainwise becase i cant get in and out of the road i live on if it gets real bad, and also, if wind is over 40 mph they shut down one of the bridges i have to cross to get to work. soooooo what do you guys think?
Atmoaggie, Look out I agree with you 100% there are a handful of people on this blog who could sit down with Dr. Lyons and Dr. M and have a tropical weather discussion, I think you all know who you are. I could serve some cookies and milk at the meeting. But he is the only reason I ever watch along with Dr. Forbes. They also look the weather geek part. Although I believe Dr. Lyons is a surfer at heart.
Quoting presslord:


OK...that's the funniest post of the last 72 hours...and subtly done, too...

Yep. That was good and dry. There are some that prolly thought he was serious...
Quoting gordydunnot:
Atmoaggie, Look out I agree with you 100% there are a handful of people on this blog who could sit down with Dr. Lyons and Dr. M and have a tropical weather discussion, I think you all know who you are. I could serve some cookies and milk at the meeting. But he is the only reason I ever watch along with Dr. Forbes. They also look the weather geek part. Although I believe Dr. Lyons is a surfer at heart.

He is from Hawaii...(or at the very least he got his BS, MS, PhD there)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I thought they used Mobile's radar...

Looks functional.


Can use Mobile or Red Bay, which is down.
Last 3 day track on Ida has it going AL/MS line.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Where does all of Ida's moisture go after tomorrow? It looks like the front is gonna bring a lot to us here in NC.
NHC 2009091500Z landfall forecast

She's dumb
Ok, if the models hold true and loop around for another shot at the gulf, would it go nontropical?
First band of convection moving in already. It's about 20 miles S of here.
I just don't want any flooding at this point.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC 2009091500Z landfall

I was close. A long way from pandandle as far as landfall goes.
1854:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dr Steve Lyons, retired Aggie prof in tropical met, now TWC expert. The only reason TWC has graced my TV in the last 10 years.


Agreed. Extremely knowledgeable, the only reason to ever put on TWC.
Looks like both systems are interacting much more now. Any chance at a merger?
Should continue to fall apart but TS winds should spread well inland with the broad windfield.

Quoting stormsurge39:
I was close. A long way from pandandle as far as landfall goes.


Still have 2-3 more advisories before landfall, so it will change most likely.
Daulphin Island and downtown Mobile are going to be under water.
Quoting largeeyes:
Where does all of Ida's moisture go after tomorrow? It looks like the front is gonna bring a lot to us here in NC.


I found this interesting reading...not stuff you see everyday... It would be nice to get some good rain here!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009


FORECAST CONFIDENCE ... REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW... AND IS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF:

1) TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET)...

2) A PAIR OF SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ALOFT (AND UPPER JETS) OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

3) ANOTHER UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

4) NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA... AND MOST NOTABLY

5) A *POSSIBLE * DIABATICALLY-INDUCED LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG AN INVERTED H85 FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IDA. FAVOR A SOLUTION DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z/9TH GEM AND ECMWF FOR REASONS OUTLINED BELOW.

DESPITE INEVITABLE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE FEATURES... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DOMINANT SIGNAL OF STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS -- FIRST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN FROM A PHASING OF THIS JET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PJ -- WITHIN A DEEP 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWAT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (AND LONGER DURATION BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) ARE CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY INDEED DEVELOPS UP THE SOUTHEAST US AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE INVERTED H85 FRONT. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOST/ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL PV TOWER (CIRCULATION) OF IDA ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST... WHICH TPC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REFLECTED. THE MSLP WAVE THE MODELS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SOME (MAINLY THE GFS/GEM) HAVE BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...IS NOT IDA ACCORDING TO LOW LEVEL PV DIAGNOSTICS...AND INSTEAD A FUNCTION OF THE INTENSE LATENT HEATING FROM SIMULATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK).

IF ONE OF THESE LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALIES INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE H85 FRONT AND LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION (VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MASS CONVERGENCE...FGEN...ETC.) IT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH COULD THEN FEED BACK TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH SUTCLIFFE-PETTERSSEN "SELF-DEVELOPMENT"...AND LEAD TO THE INTENSE "PHASE-LOCKED"/OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS (AND THE LONE 00Z/9TH GFS STILL DOES).

WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO IS PHYSICALLY PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DEEMED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION... PARTICULARLY SINCE ONLY THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-PRONE GFS STILL CREATES THIS FANTASY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SUCH FEATURE LIKELY WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER GA/SC AND SWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD SUCH A WETTER SOLUTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.
1868. dibird
Quoting iluvjess:
Daulphin Island and downtown Mobile are going to be under water.


West End of Dauphin Island already under water. Mandatory evacuation.
Normal Tide will start coming in around 2:30 PM at Dauphin Island with the high at 3:09 AM. This does not fair well for the island or the delta and North Mobile Bay areas.
1870. IKE
Pressures still rising at most locations in the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama.
PC Beach backyard webcam-one mile North of the Gulf(has microphone audio)
Link
Quoting DrNo:
#1820, #1829...

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the "!" button and ignored.


Right back at you
So from reading alot of the post us here in Mobile really don't have much to worry about no more do we? I mean from what everyone saying it's falling apart and all. Is it just going to be just a rainy day?

Sheri
1874. Detrina
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009


FORECAST CONFIDENCE ... REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW... AND IS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF:

1) TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET)...

2) A PAIR OF SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ALOFT (AND UPPER JETS) OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

3) ANOTHER UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

4) NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA... AND MOST NOTABLY

5) A *POSSIBLE * DIABATICALLY-INDUCED LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG AN INVERTED H85 FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IDA. FAVOR A SOLUTION DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z/9TH GEM AND ECMWF FOR REASONS OUTLINED BELOW.

DESPITE INEVITABLE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE FEATURES... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DOMINANT SIGNAL OF STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS -- FIRST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN FROM A PHASING OF THIS JET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PJ -- WITHIN A DEEP 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWAT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (AND LONGER DURATION BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) ARE CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY INDEED DEVELOPS UP THE SOUTHEAST US AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE INVERTED H85 FRONT. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOST/ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL PV TOWER (CIRCULATION) OF IDA ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST... WHICH TPC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REFLECTED. THE MSLP WAVE THE MODELS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SOME (MAINLY THE GFS/GEM) HAVE BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...IS NOT IDA ACCORDING TO LOW LEVEL PV DIAGNOSTICS...AND INSTEAD A FUNCTION OF THE INTENSE LATENT HEATING FROM SIMULATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK).

IF ONE OF THESE LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALIES INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE H85 FRONT AND LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION (VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MASS CONVERGENCE...FGEN...ETC.) IT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH COULD THEN FEED BACK TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH SUTCLIFFE-PETTERSSEN "SELF-DEVELOPMENT"...AND LEAD TO THE INTENSE "PHASE-LOCKED"/OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS (AND THE LONE 00Z/9TH GFS STILL DOES).

WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO IS PHYSICALLY PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DEEMED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION... PARTICULARLY SINCE ONLY THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-PRONE GFS STILL CREATES THIS FANTASY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SUCH FEATURE LIKELY WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER GA/SC AND SWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD SUCH A WETTER SOLUTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.


Can I get a translator for this please? the short version would be just fine!

thx
Quoting dibird:


West End of Dauphin Island already under water. Mandatory evacuation.


No suprise there. It will get much worse during the next 20 hours or so.
1876. beell
The hybrid is plain ole convection in advance of the next shortwave in-line to the west.
Digging towards the Big Bend of TX at this time.

The whole mess, including Ida will go with it spreading a large rain shield over the SE and TN Valley.

Not downplaying any weather associated with it but would have to strongly disagree on anything here that is a hybrid. Just an opinion.

RAMSDIS WV/IR
1st rainband coming ashore, Pensacola Beach, FL
New Blog!
1880. dibird
Quoting iluvjess:


No suprise there. It will get much worse during the next 20 hours or so.


Indeed!
Chappelhill....that's hardly even English. My eyes crossed reading it.
Quoting Detrina:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009


FORECAST CONFIDENCE ... REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW... AND IS A RESULT OF THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF:

1) TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET)...

2) A PAIR OF SPLIT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ALOFT (AND UPPER JETS) OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

3) ANOTHER UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...

4) NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA... AND MOST NOTABLY

5) A *POSSIBLE * DIABATICALLY-INDUCED LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY ALONG AN INVERTED H85 FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF IDA. FAVOR A SOLUTION DEPICTED BY A BLEND OF THE 00Z/9TH GEM AND ECMWF FOR REASONS OUTLINED BELOW.

DESPITE INEVITABLE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WRT THE EVOLUTION OF THOSE FEATURES... THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DOMINANT SIGNAL OF STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS -- FIRST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW JET FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN FROM A PHASING OF THIS JET WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PJ -- WITHIN A DEEP 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWAT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.

HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (AND LONGER DURATION BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND) ARE CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER OR NOT A LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALY INDEED DEVELOPS UP THE SOUTHEAST US AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG THE INVERTED H85 FRONT. FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOST/ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL PV TOWER (CIRCULATION) OF IDA ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST... WHICH TPC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REFLECTED. THE MSLP WAVE THE MODELS HAVE LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH SOME (MAINLY THE GFS/GEM) HAVE BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE...IS NOT IDA ACCORDING TO LOW LEVEL PV DIAGNOSTICS...AND INSTEAD A FUNCTION OF THE INTENSE LATENT HEATING FROM SIMULATED DEEP CONVECTION ABOVE (CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK).

IF ONE OF THESE LOW LEVEL PV ANOMALIES INDEED DEVELOPS...IT WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE H85 FRONT AND LEAD TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION (VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...MASS CONVERGENCE...FGEN...ETC.) IT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN WHICH COULD THEN FEED BACK TO THE APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH SUTCLIFFE-PETTERSSEN "SELF-DEVELOPMENT"...AND LEAD TO THE INTENSE "PHASE-LOCKED"/OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAVE SHOWN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS (AND THE LONE 00Z/9TH GFS STILL DOES).

WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO IS PHYSICALLY PLAUSIBLE...IT IS DEEMED A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION... PARTICULARLY SINCE ONLY THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK-PRONE GFS STILL CREATES THIS FANTASY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY SUCH FEATURE LIKELY WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA OVER GA/SC AND SWAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD SUCH A WETTER SOLUTION UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MORE LIKELY TUESDAY.


Can I get a translator for this please? the short version would be just fine!

thx



Uhhh ok I'll give it a go. Most likely we (I say we since I'm in Raleigh) will get just some heavy rain from whats left of Ida but there is a chance that all of the energy from her convection meeting the front could spin up a fairly strong low off the Carolina coast which would bring in a lot more heavy rains and high winds. Right now they don't believe it will happen since the only models that shows it is prone to over develop storms. If it was to happen we wouldn't know it until it had already started forming which is late tonight or early tomorrow.
Sheri, NWS is saying that by 6am tomorrow it will be a TS coming in at Bayou La Batre. I would suggest you go by that.
Quoting Floodman:


Right back at you


Hey Floodman, nice to see ya. Weird how people try to throw words at cha. You been on this site a long time and we all know what DrM rules of the road are.
What cha think about Ida? I was lurking last night for a while and never seen ya last night.

Sheri
1885. Grothar


I know all the conversation is on Ida, but anything on that blob NE of the islands? Probably just the normal November convection flaring. Just figured it could add some additional tropics discussion. I'm ready for the blasts. Go ahead.
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Sheri, NWS is saying that by 6am tomorrow it will be a TS coming in at Bayou La Batre. I would suggest you go by that.


Lord i need to let my daughter know that there opening a new Freds in Bayou La Batre they have been working 16hr days. Thanks for the info.

Sheri
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Lord i need to let my daughter know that there opening a new Freds in Bayou La Batre they have been working 16hr days. Thanks for the info.

Sheri
Well that may change in the next track update. Just keep looking at it. You can search it by going to noaa.com and look at click on tracking IDA and click in tracking chart. I think it is every 3 hours
Ya'll take care. I'll be in and out. Got called it to fill the fuel tanks on the boat for the fire dept. So, as usual I loose a free night at the casino. But it is for a good reason. Good luck with the searches Sheri.
Ida = Poof Back to winter weather...
The TWC is about to interview the director of the NHC after the commercial break.

WELL LIKE I SAID LAST NIGHT---IDA--GOING--GOING
GOING--THEN LATER--WILL HIT SHORE AT ABOUT 43MPH MAX WINDS ARE NOT 70MPH---THEY ARE 47MPH
WITH GUSTS AT 53MPH ---GOING-GOING -GOING---
ALMOST GONE OIL RIGS ARE SAFE--PRICE OF GAS
SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SAME AS IT WAS
GOD IS GREAT --(WINDS AS OF 12.41PM ET.)