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Ida survives its Central American crossing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on November 06, 2009

Hurricane Ida rumbled ashore over eastern Nicaragua yesterday morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Now just a tropical depression, Ida has crossed over into Honduras, dumping heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches along the coast of Nicaragua and northeast Honduras, according to satellite estimates. The rains have pretty much ended over Nicaragua, thanks to the collapse of Ida's heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of the center. Thunderstorm activity is still strong to the north of the center, over coastal Honduras and the waters of the Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that Ida still has a vigorous circulation, and with the center due to move offshore tonight, it is apparent that Ida will survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will dump another 1 - 2 inches of rain over northeastern Honduras today. The Cayman Islands, Belize, and the rest of the Honduras coast can expect occasional heavy rains of 1 - 4 inches over the next two days as spiral bands from Ida bring squally weather. Much heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely to affect Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba beginning Saturday, as Ida heads north towards the Yucatan Channel. Higher rain amounts may occur if Ida intensifies more than forecast.


Figure 2. Total heat content of the ocean (the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for November 4, 2005 compared to November 4, 2009. TCHP values in excess of 80 - 90 kJ/cm^2 (yellow, orange, and red colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. This year has higher heat content in the Western Caribbean than the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. The higher heat content this year is partially because we haven't had any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Caribbean, while 2005 had some record strong storms--particularly Hurricane Wilma--that churned up cold water from the depths. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await await Ida when it emerges over the Western Caribbean tonight, and some modest strengthening is likely. It is a concern that Ida could reach Category 1 hurricane strength before it reaches the Yucatan, as the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is very high this year (Figure 2). However, given Ida's current disorganized state and the presence of 15 - 20 knots of shear, the odds of the storm reaching hurricane strength before passing the Yucatan on Sunday night are probably low, less than 30%.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 26% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. I expect Ida will be a tropical storm with 45 - 65 mph winds as it passes Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Passage over the Yucatan or western Cuba may cause significant weakening. With the shear expected to increase to a high 20 - 30 knots once Ida reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and with cooler water temperatures there, landfall of Ida as a hurricane on the U.S. coast is unlikely. The long-term fate of Ida once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, with the models offering a wide range of solutions. While a landfall along the Gulf Coast of Florida is a good bet, the trough of low pressure pulling Ida to the north may speed eastwards fast enough to strand Ida in the Gulf, where it would be forced westwards or southwestwards away from Florida, eventually hitting Texas or Mexico, or simply dissipating in the Gulf due to high wind shear. I give Ida a 50% chance of eventually hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or this afternoon if there's some interesting development to report.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

P451: Plenty of times others in here have to deal with that. One definitive reply and then leave it. Use the iggy and worry not about what that person thinks of you. The rest of us know you better.

Cannot turn into a two-way tirade spanning 3 pages...
I bet that new model data has really thrown them for a loop on that forecast track. I am sure they will be working hard all day today.
2503. WxLogic
Hehe... funny

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I doubt it will take until tomorrow for Ida to reach HURR strength.
2504. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:


Not posted...yet.


I don't know if it will change much (we'll know shortly.) What I'm interested in seeing is the next run of models, 18Z, that will have the recon data ingested. These won't be available until about 7pm EST. So, the next NHC forecast to incorporate these runs won't be known until 10pm EST tonight. See ya then.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Odd how the Navy model and the Navy model both saw thataway .

Maybe those 2 Navy models have the same boundary/initial conditions (or NOGAPS is the NGFDL boundary/initial conditions)


Atmo,

NOGAPS is the boundary/initial conditions.


IMO the NHC track is very conservative and too far to the left. The satellite presentation shows a right leaning cyclone.
You have been as accurate if not more than the NHC all season long. Good job Weather456
I called it 60mph winds and still on a north track. We will have a hurricane by 1pm I think. Wow the pressure drop. HERE WE GO!!
Quoting WxLogic:
Hehe... funny

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I doubt it will take until tomorrow for Ida to reach HURR strength.


lol 15 mph

They dont know easy it is for the hurricane hunters to find that.
Quoting Weather456:
Ida is at 60 mph or 50 knots and the NHC barely gave her a chance to become that strong. As i said last night...I have a right to disagree with the NHC where I see fit. I'm not stupid.


We were discussing this yesterday. The NHC has a tendency to underestimate the intensity forecast in the NW Caribbean.

From 24 hrs ago I and others called for rapid intensification once Ida got out over the open water again and that process is underway IMO.

Just too much heat content there. There was no way this system was going to cross over it and remain a minimal TS at 45 mph.
Quoting kmanislander:
Ida on the way to CAT 1 by this evening. Could surprise and make Cat 2 before the GOM.


OH NO....didn't they tell you the season was over......LOL......hey Kman....i think we was correct with our Hurricane time frame.
2514. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:


lol 15 mph

They dont know easy it is for the hurricane hunters to find that.


lol
GOES 1KM now in Rapid Scan.

Updating every 5 minutes or so.

from 10 am doscussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 84.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT..EXT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W 40 KT..EXT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 35 KT..EXT
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Atmo,

NOGAPS is the boundary/initial conditions.



Thanks, nrt. I thought it might be.
You have collected a wealth of information that you are able to call upon better than I...
2519. bjdsrq
Hey P. Doug, Real anxious to know what JB has to say. Quit teasing us! ;-)

Hey StormW, Could Ida,the blob in the gulf, and the cold front form a perfect storm for the Northeast?
2521. IKE
Interesting statement from Bastardi....

will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore
Quoting TampaSpin:


OH NO....didn't they tell you the season was over......LOL......hey Kman....i think we was correct with our Hurricane time frame.


You got that right. Ida is now at the point where it will be able to insulate the core from all but fairly strong shear.
Good morning to all. IDA appears to have orginized pretty well overnight. It also appears that I96 is starting to track NE heading toward IDA. Also the storm in the BOC. It looks as if everything is going together as P451 was thinking yesterday. HH should be in the air shortly.
Quoting kmanislander:


We were discussing this yesterday. The NHC have a tendency to underestimate the intensity forecast in the NW Caribbean.

From 24 hrs ago I and others called for rapid intensification once Ida got out over the open water again and that process is underway IMO.

Just too much heat content there. There was no way this system was going to cross over it and remain a minimal TS at 45 mph.


Not only that...but upper dynamics is changing around Ida. Not many models could handle this kinda of complexity that is why the shear forecast was so different from what was going on.

The GFS however, is capable of showing the development of anticyclonic outflow of storms that don't have one. I find it the best model for forecasting the upper environment.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Good morning to all. IDA appears to have orginized pretty well overnight. It also appears that I96 is starting to track NE heading toward IDA. Also the storm in the BOC. It looks as if everything is going together as P451 was thinking yesterday. HHH should be in the air shortly.


already in the air and a few hundred miles into the flight.
Quoting Weather456:
Ida is at 60 mph or 50 knots and the NHC barely gave her a chance to become that strong. As i said last night...I have a right to disagree with the NHC where I see fit. I'm not stupid.


Right 456..NHC is not God and those with PHDS sometimes over analyze and lose common sense
on the total picture, IMO we can see this system will be a CAT! this PM and we will see more of a track to the right as time goes on, November storms turn right ahead of the westerlies well before the N. Gulf Coast
Quoting P451:


I am a contributing member to this blog. I got attacked, I defended myself, and continued to get attacked.

What would you do?

Again, I apologize, and will let it lie where it may. Probably in a ban which is likely deserved.

Again, apologies, but I'm not going to get trashed and not reply in kind.

Learn self control. If you ignore them, they will go away. All they want is drama. And it does not solve anything getting yourself banned.
2528. WxLogic
Appears the HH is having difficulties sending data or the data processing center getting it or they decided to prep another plane due to plane problems.
IDA is currently a mighty tiny storm and can get spinning very fast.....CAT 2 or higher in the next 24hrs while its going the the Gulf Stream loop would not shock me at all!
Quoting WoolmarketWeatherMan:
Hey StormW, Could Ida,the blob in the gulf, and the cold front form a perfect storm for the Northeast?

Start saying that a couple of days ago...for the northeast Gulf, that is...
And yer leaving out EP96.
Collect all that vorticity and swing it along the cold front and...
2532. IKE
2533. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:
Interesting statement from Bastardi....

will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore


Ike, do you have reference to the "Kate" being referred to? With my luck, I'll look in the archive and get the "Kate" from the wrong year. ;-)
Quoting WxLogic:
Appears the HH is having difficulties sending data or the data processing center getting it or they decided to prep another plane due to plane problems.


Thats not fun.
Quoting WxLogic:
Hehe... funny

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

I doubt it will take until tomorrow for Ida to reach HURR strength.


Where is ORCA's blown forecast link when you need it.......LMAO
I'm out for now. Back later.
Quoting IKE:
Interesting statement from Bastardi....

will probably have an end game path closer to Kate in the Gulf. I am becoming convinced this will make it ashore


Kate...did that make landfall around Tally? Bastardi is always interesting....
2539. Drakoen
Ida looks to be intensifying nicely with not signs of shear disrupting the system. Ida could easily reach hurricane strength if the trend continues. Microwave imagery shows an eyewall developing:

Bastardi has been posted. Look at #2492.
2542. IKE
Quoting bjdsrq:


Ike, do you have reference to the "Kate" being referred to? With my luck, I'll look in the archive and get the "Kate" from the wrong year. ;-)


Quoting southbeachdude:


Kate...did that make landfall around Tally? Bastardi is always interesting....

It will not make it that far north before turning northeast...More of a Central or SW Fla eventIMO...
Should be an interesting day.
Is any that is tracking the recon getting the flight path? All I am getting is the observations.
I think the HH will find Huricane force winds when they get there......the Gulf STREAM LOOp is playing a big factor in IDA intenfying rapidly as she is....





Shear LOOP and a window is opening with low shear in my Opinion.
2547. Drakoen
Ida has not even reached the highest of the TCHP. None of the models really expected her to get this strong so fast so it should be interesting today.
2548. amd
as of about 15 minutes ago: the hurricane hunter aircraft is at 23.5N 87.0W

Link
Quoting KeyWestwx:
Local weathermen (Miami) last night said that the upper level winds over the Florida Striaghts are currently blowing over 80 mph. When (If) Ida reaches this area or West of it she will be quickly torn apart. Here's hoping that she slings some moisture at the Keys. We are in a major rain deficient


ditto that sentiment. here's hoping SWFL gets some too!
Wall Street Journal has picked up on this, too, so pls. fill up even if accuweather is hype (situation normal.) Also, suggest Gulf/FL residents take out a little cash from your ATM.

Just normal disaster watch/warning procedures. And check/resupply your storm kit.

Storms May Cause a Disruption of Normal Oil Production Operations in the Gulf
Posted 2009-11-07

Two storms are stirring up weather in the Gulf of Mexico that will affect production in the energy industry beginning this weekend and continuing into Monday.

By Carly Porter
AccuWeather.com

Two storms are stirring up weather in the Gulf of Mexico that will affect the production of the energy industry beginning this weekend and continuing into Monday.

Tropical Storm Ida will come north and be in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday, while a second storm located in the southern Gulf could become a tropical system late this weekend as well.

The system currently developing in the southern Gulf of Mexico, whether eventually a named storm or not, will cause strong winds and high seas along the Texas and Louisiana coastal waters this weekend.

"This is going to be a three-day problem at the least," said Expert Senior Meteorologist and Tropical Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi. "Seas 15-20 feet and a 200-mile wide area of strong gale-force winds 40 to 50 mph will mean a likely disruption of normal oil production operations in the northwest Gulf this weekend."

Ida will continue moving northwestward over the warm waters of the northwest Caribbean this weekend. Ida could be in the Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan by Monday.

This is a complex and very rare weather event for the Gulf of Mexico, and not only has implication on normal oil operations, but also on folks living along the Gulf Coast and Florida next week.

Every 9 minutes rapid scan of Ida

2552. Drakoen
HHs nearing Ida

2554. bjdsrq
Quoting IKE:

BR


Thank you much Ike, and also thanks to Doug for the JB update. I'll put my money on JB since the oil industry places their bets on his calls.
Quoting Drakoen:
Ida has not even reached the highest of the TCHP. None of the models really expected her to get this strong so fast so it should be interesting today.


she gets south of Yucatan Channel...its not going to be pretty
ok just listened to TWC so called experts...how will this thing turn x-tropical after it turnes into a cane?? i'm confident that Ida will at least be a Cat1 so yes the waters "along shore" are cooler but not too far out are still warm...can anyone explain this or are they just trying not to freak people out?? just don't make any sence to me...but i know i'm going to get 1 hell of a swell out of it...
Quoting Nolehead:
ok just listened to TWC so called experts...how will this thing turn x-tropical after it turnes into a cane?? i'm confident that Ida will at least be a Cat1 so yes the waters "along shore" are cooler but not too far out are still warm...can anyone explain this or are they just trying not to freak people out?? just don't make any sence to me...but i know i'm going to get 1 hell of a swell out of it...


I do not know about Ida

But storms can become extratropical while hurricanes

Maria 2005, Florence 2006 and Bill 2009.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
What a difference a day makes.

Yesterday.


Today.

same image ;)
Hopefully we should still get a vortex message from the recon plane.
Quoting Weather456:


I do not know about Ida

But storms can become extratropical while hurricanes

Maria 2005, Florence 2006 and Bill 2009.


Noel 2007
HDOBs have started coming in should show up at Tropical Atlantic soon.
Nice post 456 for those of us who need visual help. This is close to what kman was talking about concerning the Caribbean high yesterday but your steering chart really brings it home. Looks like we are still in a crap shoot. Lastly storm was pretty ripped up yesterday should have know it wouldn't develop quite as fast as I said. I am still hungry not to much meat on that crow. I think anyone can see the intensification today. Hot soup overcomes shear but know it doesn't look like any
shear for the time being. Personally this is when the blog is its best go StormW and 456.
buddy that's the same Sat pic?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
What a difference a day makes.

Yesterday.


Today.

2565. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HDOBs have started coming in should show up at Tropical Atlantic soon.


Thx...
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
same image ;)


Fixed.
456
Quoting Weather456:


lol 15 mph

They dont know easy it is for the hurricane hunters to find that.


456. what is your opinion on the track? A stronger system will tend to move mor northward or even NNE with the forecasted environment in the Gulf. Is that possible. Do you think IDA will get past 85W if it strengthens more than forecast?
2568. bjdsrq
Quoting portcharlotte:

It will not make it that far north before turning northeast...More of a Central or SW Fla eventIMO...


I will contain my general "human nature" theory today mr. "PortCharlotte". lol
The biggest headline maker this weekend in the Gulf Coast won't be Ida, it'll be another tropical low in the Gulf of Mexico.


This low, centered over the Bay of Campeche, will move northward through the western Gulf this weekend. Tropical moisture will begin to push into eastern and central Texas on Sunday, but the heaviest rainfall will be over the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday night through Monday night.


This low is having a tough time developing into the tropical depression and it may never. Strong shear in the region is limiting its potential. However, this system will still be capable of damaging weather as it heads closer to the U.S. coast.


Throughout this weekend, rough surf and dangerous boating conditions will exist throughout the western Gulf. By Monday, winds in excess of 40 mph are expected along the Gulf Coast, while heavy rain and thunderstorms will push into southern Louisiana and Mississippi.

Ida isn't my only concern in S.E. LA.

Quoting Drakoen:
Ida looks to be intensifying nicely with not signs of shear disrupting the system. Ida could easily reach hurricane strength if the trend continues. Microwave imagery shows an eyewall developing:

Isn't the eye forming further east than the coordinates NHC is giving ?
Quoting portcharlotte:
456

456. what is your opinion on the track? A stronger system will tend to move mor northward or even NNE with the forecasted environment in the Gulf. Is that possible. Do you think IDA will get past 85W if it strengthens more than forecast?


I did mentioned something of that nature earlier in the blog.

Ida did slow and this happens when storms intensifies over the NW Caribbean.....i suspect she will turn north and east further south than previously expected.
Surface winds of 37 mph already

Quoting Weather456:


I did mentioned something of that nature earlier in the blog.

I did slow and this happens when storm intensifies.....i suspect she will turn north and east further south than previously expected.


I said exactly the same. You are correct 456!
Quoting Weather456:
Surface winds of 37 mph already



Yep this is going to be an interesting flight.
Mobile NWS discussion from earlier:

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA.".........

Between this from Mobile NWS discussion earlier, a shear map on another site and what I just heard on the weather channel, starting to think the NGOM coast may not be as much in the clear as we were starting to think. If, Ida was to move faster than expected beating the front and that shear map is right, it could get interesting around here instead of SFL.
Also just heard surf's gonna be up from LA to Fl Panhandle. Was just at Pensacola Beach yesterday for lunch...the water is coooold and beautiful. Any thoughts?
Quoting Weather456:


I did mentioned something of that nature earlier in the blog.

I did slow and this happens when storm intensifies.....i suspect she will turn north and east further south than previously expected.


Thanks 456...........
Quoting TampaSpin:


I said exactly the same. You are correct 456!


Tampa..I believe this will be more of an EAST GULF event especially with the BOC low in play.
To me the EASY GULF is everything east of 85W
New blog!
New blog!
New blog!
repost

There is a trough extending from Northern Mexico to the Eastern Pacific (yellow dashed line). You can see the associated storm system moving east over Mexico on the WV link StormW provided. The Bay of Campeche system is located in the exit region, full of shear and divergence aloft - one thing that makes it a hybrid system.

Ida is smack in the middle of the trough and a ridge over the Central Caribbean, the same ridge that has been influencing Ida since it was 97L.

Now the speed of the environmental steering that Ida has entered is 5 knots, causing her to slow and organize rapidly. She is also located in the exit region of the ridge, which is also beneficial for outflow.

This implies Ida will continue northwest for short time, then turn north, supporting StormW findings and because she has slowed, she will likely turn further south than previously thought.



Once again another tricky one for NHC, they already fail the last forecast and Ida is a formidable 60mph storm not 45mph,as their forecast. Now, they re saying she won't become a hurricane again, we will see.But likely they will be wrong again. Becoming typical of them this "el niño" year.
Quoting jurakantaino:
Once again another tricky one for NHC, they already fail the last forecast and Ida is a formidable 60mph storm not 45mph,as their forecast. Now, they re saying she won't become a hurricane again, we will see.But likely they will be wrong again. Becoming typical of them this "el niño" year.


I think the NHC forecasters are all from Alaska and are not very tropical orientated...Just kidding
can someone post a link for the recon data or obs?
To me IDA is almost stationary...Anyone agree?


Pinar Del Rio radar or in the vicinity
2588. bjdsrq
Recon seeing 45k surface winds
2589. bjdsrq
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
can someone post a link for the recon data or obs?


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
Quoting bjdsrq:
Recon seeing 45k surface winds


thanks for the obs link