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Ida strengthens, could be a hurricane for the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on November 07, 2009

Tropical Storm Ida is slowly strengthening, as it heads north-northwest towards an encounter with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ida's heavy thunderstorms are expanding in area, and the cloud tops are cooling, indicating that the updrafts in the storm are growing stronger and pushing higher into the atmosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and is forecast to remain moderate through Sunday night. SSTs are a warm 29°C, and the total ocean heat content is over 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for intensification. The rains have ended over Nicaragua and Honduras, and Ida dumped up to eleven inches of rain along the coast in Nicaragua, causing flooding that damaged thousands of homes, but caused no deaths or injuries as of yet.


Figure 1. Satellite-estimated rainfall from Ida. The dark red colors (275 mm) represent rainfall in excess of about eleven inches. Image credit: NASA/TRMM project. Wunderground meteorologist Dr. Rob Carver presents another estimate of Ida's precipitation in his blog today.

The forecast for Ida
The moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots should allow for continued slow but steady intensification of Ida through Sunday afternoon, as long as the center remains over water. I give Ida a medium (30 - 50% chance) of reaching Category 1 hurricane strength before arriving at the Yucatan, since the total heat content of the ocean in the Western Caribbean is so high. We'll have a better idea of Ida's current strength early this afternoon, when the Hurricane Hunters have had time to investigate the storm.

The current wind speed probabilities for Cozumel give the Mexican resort island a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of higher, Sunday or Monday. The odds of receiving hurricane force winds are given as 3%. Given the current trend in organization of Ida, these numbers should probably be bumped up to about 60% and 5%, respectively.

Once Ida crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday night, the storm will encounter much cooler SSTs and a strong trough of low pressure that will dump cold air into the storm and bring 40 knots of wind shear. This will cause Ida to lose its tropical characteristics and become a powerful extratropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds. It is highly unlikely that Ida will hit the U.S. as a tropical storm, but it could still bring tropical storm-force winds of 45 mph to the coast next week as an extratropical storm.

I'll have an update later today, or on Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GPTGUY:
Ike we're under a high wind watch over here..you think that is replacing a tropical storm watch..I would think 36 hrs from now tropical storm winds would start affecting the gulf coast?


In about 45 hrs, you guys should be seeing TS force winds.

Ida's windfield is large...a large area will be affected by gale forced winds

Quoting tea3781:
I think its just going to be a wind and rain event for most of north and central florida...the severe weather is what im nervous about


Depends on how soon it becomes extratropical as the windfield will spread out then.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A strengthening Hurricane going into the GOMEX.. in November.. in an El Nino year.





I here ya. I said the same thing this morning. This really is rare.
Yesterday at this time the NHC Hurricane Force Wind Probability chart gave IDA a 10% chance or less of hurricane force winds within a 5 day period.
Maybe they're short-staffed over there due to budget cuts.
Link
2507. P451
ATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
517 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

TODAY
EAST WIND AROUND 20 KNOTS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

TONIGHT
EAST WIND AROUND 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET.

MONDAY
SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET BUILDING TO 11 TO 14 FEET IN THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MONDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE LIKELY. SEAS 12 TO 15 FEET. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY
SOUTH WIND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
LIKELY. SEAS 13 TO 17 FEET. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT
EAST WIND AROUND 30 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST
LATE. GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SEAS 12 TO 16 FEET. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY
NORTHEAST WIND 25 TO 30 KNOTS DECREASING TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 13 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
Weather 456 . You've got Mail.
2509. P451
Quoting Chicklit:
Yesterday at this time the NHC Hurricane Force Wind Probability chart gave 10% chance or less of hurricane force winds.
Maybe they're short-staffed over there due to budget cuts.


72 hours ago they had Ida potentially dying over land.
48 hours ago they said it had 24 hours left over land - it only had 10.
36 hours ago they said she'd only be a 45kt system where she is right now.

So, well, their track record with her intensity and timing has been terrible. It's understandable given this setup but that's what happened. So I don't really trust them from here on out, either.

They have done well with the actual track however.
Sofl has gale warning. This is not expected to change, correct? We have slight increase of chance of rain to 40% mid week. This increase would be Ida effects ot the cold front?
2511. P451
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Nice catch.
2512. IKE
Quoting GPTGUY:
Ike we're under a high wind watch over here..you think that is replacing a tropical storm watch..I would think 36 hrs from now tropical storm winds would start affecting the gulf coast?


I think so.

Defuniak Springs,FL....no advisories....earth to Tallahassee mets!
Morning All,

So now they expect her to hold her own through the GOMEX... We havent had a storm all year able to do this in GOMEX... crazy El nino.

Im right outside of NOLA, looks like we wont get much but some waves along the coast.
Hope those of you in the cone are ready, tell you friends families etc. Alot of people dont even know about this storm. Not saying its going to be a cat 4 or 5 but its still rain/wind and possible tornado threat. Time to take your precautions now. Cant ever be careful enough.
2514. K8eCane
i get the feeling that the nhc is being phased out
Good thing I came online to check the NHC website. Local news doesn't have Tampa in the cone even. Wow. They did mention an increased chance of rain for Wednesday though.
2516. bjdsrq
Quoting P451:


72 hours ago they had Ida potentially dying over land.
48 hours ago they said it had 24 hours left over land - it only had 10.
36 hours ago they said she'd only be a 45kt system where she is right now.

So, well, their track record with her intensity and timing has been terrible. It's understandable given this setup but that's what happened. So I don't really trust them from here on out, either.

They have done well with the actual track however.


If
Quoting P451:


72 hours ago they had Ida potentially dying over land.
48 hours ago they said it had 24 hours left over land - it only had 10.
36 hours ago they said she'd only be a 45kt system where she is right now.

So, well, their track record with her intensity and timing has been terrible. It's understandable given this setup but that's what happened. So I don't really trust them from here on out, either.

They have done well with the actual track however.


If you think this govt run agency is bad, wait until you see the how their health care system turns out.

2517. GPTGUY
I don't know about some of you...but I respectfully disagree with the NHC letting the local National Weather Services handle the watches and warnings...I think they should be issuing tropical storm watches and warnings...do any of you think Ida will become extratropical before landfall (considering it makes one) or stay purely tropical?
Still, not a lot of banding and no clear eye.
2519. bjdsrq
The last two GFDL and and HWRF runs showing JB might be right in his "Kate" analogy call. This would put the system inland in the western panhandle of FL and send it out NE, w/o ever emerging back into the GOM.
2520. IKE
Quoting GPTGUY:
I don't know about some of you...but I respectfully disagree with the NHC letting the local National Weather Services handle the watches and warnings...I think they should be issuing tropical storm watches and warnings...do any of you think Ida will become extratropical before landfall (considering it makes one) or stay purely tropical?


I agree with what you're saying.
Rapid scan

So guys what are the shear maps saying now? High shear, moderate or low? That hybrid mess looks like its taking a bruisen from the shear.
Quoting P451:


72 hours ago they had Ida potentially dying over land.
48 hours ago they said it had 24 hours left over land - it only had 10.
36 hours ago they said she'd only be a 45kt system where she is right now.

So, well, their track record with her intensity and timing has been terrible. It's understandable given this setup but that's what happened. So I don't really trust them from here on out, either.

They have done well with the actual track however.


They do tend to fall behind the intensity forecast curve in the NW Caribbean IMO. I have seen this time and time again, so much so that when they were calling for 45 knots here almost two days ago many, including myself, said that cat 1 or two was far more likely to be the case looking at the history of the area.

That said, in the absence of a rapid intensification close to land an intensity forecast that lags actual state can be remedied quickly which is what they have done with their updating. The track has been right on from the exit offshore Honduras but the timing was off there due to the track being much further East than forecasted.

Late season and sheared systems are the hardest to deal with for a forecaster.
Hey Kman. Hows it. So I live in Clearwater which is on the gulf side of tampa. This looks to be far north of me. My point of concern is this. I lost my home owners insurance. (another story) Should I be concerned about a slow down and a right hook earlier then expected.
2526. palmpt
Quoting GPTGUY:
I don't know about some of you...but I respectfully disagree with the NHC letting the local National Weather Services handle the watches and warnings...I think they should be issuing tropical storm watches and warnings...do any of you think Ida will become extratropical before landfall (considering it makes one) or stay purely tropical?


That is somewhat immaterial at this point. The impact will still be the same... coastal flooding, heavy rain... and a whole lot of folks caught off gaurd. Truth is most folks along the northern coast walked ouside to get their newspaper, smelled the cool air and thought to themselves "Fall.. what a great time of the year". They don't have a clue. This could be nothing... or it could be a relatively big deal. It is a big deal given the time of the year. Crown says it best. the northern gulf coast could take a direct hit... and from a tropical system. Folks will be scrambling. And I I thought I had bid my friend Taz farewell till next year...
Quoting alaina1085:
So guys what are the shear maps saying now? High shear, moderate or low? That hybrid mess looks like its taking a bruisen from the shear.


Modest shear follows Ida over the next 3 days. Increases to heavy shear through 4 days.

Shear is intensifying the hybrid low so don't be fooled by the convection.
Quoting palmpt:


That is somewhat immaterial at this point. The impact will still be the same... coastal flooding, heavy rain... and a whole lot of folks caught off gaurd. Truth is most folks along the northern coast walked ouside to get their newspaper, smelled the cool air and thought to themselves "Fall.. what a great time of the year". They don't have a clue. This could be nothing... or it could be a relatively big deal. It is a big deal given the time of the year. Crown says it best. the northern gulf coast could take a direct hit... and from a tropical system. Folks will be scrambling. And I I thought I had bid my friend Taz farewell till next year...


Not to mention there are a ton of snow birds in Florida right now who have never experienced a storm.
2530. bjdsrq
I've seen the Cancun radar still images. Can someone post any link to a Cancun radar animation loop? Thx.
Quoting Weather456:


Modest shear follows Ida over the next 3 days. Increases to heavy shear through 4 days.

Shear is intensifying the hybrid low so don't be fooled by the convection.

Thanks 456. Appreciate all the hard work.
http://www.cancunweathertoday.com/radar.php


It takes a long time to load though.
2533. K8eCane
i can see the writing on the wall...nhc will merge with nws
Quoting bjdsrq:
I've seen the Cancun radar still images. Can someone post any link to a Cancun radar animation loop? Thx.


The Cancun loads long and I dont think you can post it.

But Cuba has one.



Cancun International Airport, Mexico
2009.11.08 1242 UTC
Wind from the NW (310 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.72 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
ob MMUN 081242Z 31006KT 5SM BKN010TCU OVC070 24/22 A2972 RMK 8/27/
Any chance of the Tampa Bay area getting any rain from Ida? It seems that the right side of the storm spreads pretty far to the east? We are very dry here and could use a little rain. Once again Tampa avoids another storm and the magnet that is the panhandle gets it again.
2537. Asta
Quoting alaina1085:
Morning All,

So now they expect her to hold her own through the GOMEX... We havent had a storm all year able to do this in GOMEX... crazy El nino.

Im right outside of NOLA, looks like we wont get much but some waves along the coast.
Hope those of you in the cone are ready, tell you friends families etc. Alot of people dont even know about this storm. Not saying its going to be a cat 4 or 5 but its still rain/wind and possible tornado threat. Time to take your precautions now. Cant ever be careful enough.
I'm outside of NOLA with family there and I am concerned about any severe weather associated with IDA ....and the cold front as well..More than a few inches of rain in a short amount of time and it floods in some areas, even in a rainshower -and one has to be careful of power outages, esp. with the elderly. Best to be prepared and take precautions - If IDA is nothing - then no harm done!
2538. bjdsrq
Quoting CaneWarning:


Not to mention there are a ton of snow birds in Florida right now who have never experienced a storm.


Exactly my point yesterday. It will be chaos even if she comes in weak due to the early arrival of clueless snow birds this year. They have been annoying me on the roads like it was March already. I was hoping Ida would come barreling into SW FL just for the sake of the resulting show. Looks like that won't happen though.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
Any chance of the Tampa Bay area getting any rain from Ida? It seems that the right side of the storm spreads pretty far to the east? We are very dry here and could use a little rain. Once again Tampa avoids another storm and the magnet that is the panhandle gets it again.


Bay News 9 is saying we will have a 50% chance of rain from all this. Winds will be gusty to around 25 mph.
check this out. Loop

Quoting bjdsrq:


Exactly my point yesterday. It will be chaos even if she comes in weak due to the early arrival of clueless snow birds this year. They have been annoying me on the roads like it was March already. I was hoping Ida would come barreling into SW FL just for the sake of the resulting show. Looks like that won't happen though.


I got behind one yesterday on I-75 and they were going probably 40 mph. It almost caused a huge wreck.
2542. unf97
Dr. Lyons on TWC seems to believe that the southerly flow ahead of the BOC hybrid system will be strong enough to possibly enable IDA to make a landfall right near Mobile/Pensacola area. He seems to think that the easterly or right turn will happen a little later in the period.
Quoting Weather456:
Rapid scan


Hey weather it appears Ida is moving more North than west. Is that just a wobble?
The NWS radio broadcast service
has seas offshore of the Florida panhandle 15-19 feet on Tuesday...
Not boating weather.
2545. oakland
Quoting ClearwaterSteve:
Hey Kman. Hows it. So I live in Clearwater which is on the gulf side of tampa. This looks to be far north of me. My point of concern is this. I lost my home owners insurance. (another story) Should I be concerned about a slow down and a right hook earlier then expected.


As long as the NHC is putting it in the forecast track, imo, yes you need to be wary of her track. Personally, I think we in the Tampa area will see gale force winds and rain from Ida this week.
My only fear is that this suddenly makes a right hand turn and hits as a hurricane somewhere along the peninsula. I know that is unlikely though.
2547. Asta
Quoting Chicklit:
check this out.

What is that??
Quoting Asta:
I'm outside of NOLA with family there and I am concerned about any severe weather associated with IDA ....and the cold front as well..More than a few inches of rain in a short amount of time and it floods in some areas, even in a rainshower -and one has to be careful of power outages, esp. with the elderly. Best to be prepared and take precautions - If IDA is nothing - then no harm done!


Hi!
If Ida holds true to her panned out track we should be ok. Its the hybrid that will give us some rain and such. Just be prepared in case.
Hey everyone!

I'm now in Florida! Wow...what a long trip...1400 miles.

I've called Mom and Dad (in P'cola). P'colaDoug is still asleep I'm sure since he worked last night.

Just to keep everyone informed...since I drove, I brought all my gear. We will attempt a full intercept of this storm, with live webcam and remote hurricane weather station. I'll also have a cell phone set to auto answer during the storm. The phone will be connected to "the big battery" that will power the webcam and computer I'll have in my backpack.

Ida, still intensifying and still moving into the GoM. Wow...thinking back to Thursday...it's hard to believe I was as sure as I was that this system would do just what it is doing.

However, I'm also sure that once it gets into the GoM, the SSTs will start to weaken the storm.

For it to be an intense landfaller, it will have to pick up some forward speed.

So, right now...I do not have much to do. I can take some personal time and get myself into recovery mode from this long journey.

I'll keep my system running for an hour or so.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
Any chance of the Tampa Bay area getting any rain from Ida? It seems that the right side of the storm spreads pretty far to the east? We are very dry here and could use a little rain. Once again Tampa avoids another storm and the magnet that is the panhandle gets it again.
It does spread far to the East. We are still getting some good rain in Grand Cayman and doesn't look to be clearing up any time soon.
2553. bjdsrq
Quoting Weather456:


The Cancun loads long and I dont think you can post it.

But Cuba has one.
<


Yeah. I've been looking at the cuban one and it's *way* overloaded. I found the Mexican one from Cancun but no animation. Really wanted to monitor the eye movement. Interesting to see the apparent COC position error between the Cancun and western Cuban radar. Looking fwd to some vis sat imagery.
Quoting ClearwaterSteve:
Hey Kman. Hows it. So I live in Clearwater which is on the gulf side of tampa. This looks to be far north of me. My point of concern is this. I lost my home owners insurance. (another story) Should I be concerned about a slow down and a right hook earlier then expected.


Whenever you are to the NE of a late season hurricane coming up from the SW you should pay very close attention. Forecasting when and how sharp the turn will be is difficult even for the best forecasters with all the tools.

It may sound like hedging but IMO anyone from Naples all the way around to Louisiana needs to watch this. There is just too much that is unpredictable this late in the year and coupled with an expanding windfield when it goes extratropical you don't have to be close to feel the effects.

The West coast of Florida has a concern with onshore flow on the SE side of a system. How far North from you will make a big difference but there is the added element of a turn back to the SE that is also a possibility.

Wind may not be the real threat but if you are near the coast in a low lying area coastal flooding might be.

2555. surfmom
G-morning to all - this has me spell-bound with curiosity.... who could have thought this up??? Only Mother Nature - who never seems to run out of ways to remind us who is in charge.

I'DA THOUGHT SHE'D CROAK, but IDA is still spinning. From wave maker to Trouble Maker - I'm hoping that she has nothing in common with IKE, other then the first letter of his name and two more after...
Last thing we need is her evil twin.

Quoting Weather456:


I here ya. I said the same thing this morning. This really is rare.
I'm enjoying the novelty and learning IDA is presenting, just not going to be thrilled with her banging on the roofs, windows and doors of my friends and....me.
2556. Asta
Quoting unf97:
Dr. Lyons on TWC seems to believe that the southerly flow ahead of the BOC hybrid system will be strong enough to possibly enable IDA to make a landfall right near Mobile/Pensacola area. He seems to think that the easterly or right turn will happen a little later in the period.

I agree, I think it will turn well inland...OM and then north.. I think IDA may even wobble more westerly as she moves north..
Quoting unf97:
Dr. Lyons on TWC seems to believe that the southerly flow ahead of the BOC hybrid system will be strong enough to possibly enable IDA to make a landfall right near Mobile/Pensacola area. He seems to think that the easterly or right turn will happen a little later in the period.


I was thinking the same thing this morning. Ida's center comes very close the coast. It wouldnt take much to shrug it ashore.
IMO, the forecast being that close to land and suddenly turning is giving a false perception to viewers! I talked to my dad this morning in pensacola Fl. and not only him, also friends that are not TC followers like me, all say the same thing. "Oh that storms not going to do anything here, look how it turns and goes away from us". This is their perception. I hope the forecasters are right or were going to have alot of suprised people! I think what should be being said by Mets is that this is the forecast at this time but nothing is set in stone, you should be prepared!
{Oakland}

As it stands now, looks like Ida is going to call on my neighborhood, but everyone on the FL Gulf coast needs to be alert... actually the entire Gulf Coast, AL, MS, LA, TX. Mother Nature has a way of surprising us sometimes!
Oakland, good to see you....
Quoting oakland:


As long as the NHC is putting it in the forecast track, imo, yes you need to be wary of her track. Personally, I think we in the Tampa area will see gale force winds and rain from Ida this week.
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Hey weather it appears Ida is moving more North than west. Is that just a wobble?


She did jog north...but it could the authors of this image reentered the image...satellite images showed Ida may have deviated from NW.

PS: The weather has been beautiful all the way from LA / MS to here in FL.

Just a beautiful day with a strikingly red sky at dawn.
morning surfmom and any surfer along the GOM...headhigh surf this morning getting some coffee and getting ready to hit it...calling for 15-20' by Tue...who woulda thunk this????
2563. bjdsrq
Quoting Weather456:


I was thinking the same thing this morning. Ida's center comes very close the coast. It wouldnt take much to shrug it ashore.


That's what GFDL is calling for now in last two full runs: 00Z and 06Z.
Quoting Weather456:


She did jog north



Wow, that's quite a jog. I'm just going to stay alert because I'm paranoid after Charley. Tampa was lucky.
2557. Weather456 1:39 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting unf97:
Dr. Lyons on TWC seems to believe that the southerly flow ahead of the BOC hybrid system will be strong enough to possibly enable IDA to make a landfall right near Mobile/Pensacola area. He seems to think that the easterly or right turn will happen a little later in the period.


I was thinking the same thing this morning. Ida's center comes very close the coast. It wouldnt take much to shrug it ashore.


Like I said earlier, the Tampa shields have worked once again. This could have been a dangerouse situation for Tampa Bay but it always about timing and for some reason, Tampa continues to find a way to bring the trough in early and turn them south or the trough comes in late and they go north.
2566. bjdsrq
Quoting bjdsrq:


That's what GFDL is calling for now in last two full runs: 00Z and 06Z.
2567. P451


5-Day QPF
The reason for the cell phone set to auto answer is that our ground spotter(s) will be able to direct us to follow the system as it begins to bear to the east.

We will follow this storm.
Worst case scenario for Tampa, Ida slows while turning as the trough kicks her east, sharply. Chances of that occurring is about 30-40%.

Another scenario, Ida turns as expected but the moisture and wind fetch is closer to the west coast of FL. Its 50/50 with this chance since its quite possible and reasonable.
2570. TXCHIC
i agree w/beachfoxx. mother nature will certainly surprise u.all of the gulf coast states should watch. when ida gets into the gulf, who knows what will happen. it's only a projected path. not a more than positive path. she may go more westerly, stall, and then hit somewhere else. not many expected ida to last this longs. ike surprised the hell out of me so i have my guards up here in tx, even though everyone is saying we'll be ok.
Thank you Kman. I value your opinion as you know from the last 3 years.
Quoting CycloneOz:
The reason for the cell phone set to auto answer is that our ground spotter(s) will be able to direct us to follow the system as it begins to bear to the east.

We will follow this storm.
Do you think it will make landfall in N gulf coast , and where?
2573. surfmom
weather456 - thanks for all the maps & graphs!!!
There is only one thing for sure and that is wherever it is supposed to hit, it will hit somewhere else. On Friday we were at the northern edge of the cone in Tampa, with a weak extratropical storm in the southern GOM. Anyone living in Pinellas County knows about our Charlie debacle in 04. In two hours the track changed by 100 miles.
2575. bjdsrq
Quoting Weather456:
Worst case scenario for Tampa, Ida slows while turning as the trough kicks her east, sharply. Chances of that occurring is about 40%.

Another scenario, Ida turns as expected but the moisture and wind fetch is closer. Its 50/50 with this chance since it quite possible and reasonable.


We'll at least see some rainy squalls hit the coast here in SW FL, long before it even gets cloudy in the panhandle area.
456 Ivan is the "I" storm that comes to mind, but that is because he knocked us down, what are the other "I" storms?

What are thoughts as to the NHC being so quiet? Can we assume Ida will not survive the Gulf waters?

Quoting Weather456:
The "I" storm always seem to be the trouble maker in most hurricane seasons.
From Crown Weather:


So, my thinking is that Ida will be in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening and then come ashore somewhere between Apalachee Bay, Florida and Gulfport, Mississippi with the most likely area being between Mobile, Alabama and Fort Walton Beach, Florida. The time of landfall will be between midnight Monday night and 9 am Tuesday morning. The strength of Ida at landfall looks to be somewhere between a 65 mph tropical storm and a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane.
2578. tea3781
I think you guys are paying attention too much to the point of landfall. Ida will be extratropical by this point so its wind feild will be spread out!
We got lucky with this in Tampa yet again! I'll check in later this afternoon just in case anything changes.
Everyone thought the season was over here in New Orleans, now we have Ida
Quoting stormsurge39:
Do you think it will make landfall in N gulf coast , and where?


All I had to go on back on Thursday was a gut feeling...now almost four days later...my gut feeling was right.

So I'll tell you what my gut feeling was about landfall....back then...it was Sarasota.

Gut feelings can only take you so far, I guess ;)

Now...I have no idea. I'm ready to take off back west...east...down the peninsula...whatever it takes.

My old bones hope that I don't have to do much more traveling, however. :)
2582. TomSal
Quoting kmanislander:


Whenever you are to the NE of a late season hurricane coming up from the SW you should pay very close attention. Forecasting when and how sharp the turn will be is difficult even for the best forecasters with all the tools.

It may sound like hedging but IMO anyone from Naples all the way around to Louisiana needs to watch this. There is just too much that is unpredictable this late in the year and coupled with an expanding windfield when it goes extratropical you don't have to be close to feel the effects.

The West coast of Florida has a concern with onshore flow on the SE side of a system. How far North from you will make a big difference but there is the added element of a turn back to the SE that is also a possibility.

Wind may not be the real threat but if you are near the coast in a low lying area coastal flooding might be.

What does IMO mean? Thanks.
2583. surfmom
Quoting Nolehead:
morning surfmom and any surfer along the GOM...headhigh surf this morning getting some coffee and getting ready to hit it...calling for 15-20' by Tue...who woulda thunk this????


It's what we wish for -- let's just hope the consequences don't slap us upside the head.

bjdsrq - not thrilled w/the Snowbirds either, but we don't need them leaving b/cause of a storm, we need them leaving their $ in our hands.

2584. surfmom
Quoting Flawestcoast:
There is only one thing for sure and that is wherever it is supposed to hit, it will hit somewhere else. On Friday we were at the northern edge of the cone in Tampa, with a weak extratropical storm in the southern GOM. Anyone living in Pinellas County knows about our Charlie debacle in 04. In two hours the track changed by 100 miles.


THANK YOU
2585. TXCHIC
does anyone think it's possible for it to jog a little more to the west and we feel some effects in texas?
2586. 1965
I'm not buying into all this talk of shear impacting this storm. The COC is embedded squarely in the CDO. Now of course Ida doesn't have the classic high aloft ventilating the system in all directions, but to me a sheared system is one which the center is displaced from the CDO or even exposed. This is clearly not the case. Furthermore, I fear the storms interaction with the BOC feature will not only prevent westerly shear from disrupting the storm, but will at first provide another outflow channel, and in the end aid in Ida's transformation to subtropical. This storm will come ashore much stronger because of this subtropical/extra-tropical transformation than it would otherwise given the cooler SST in the northern gulf, and quite cool air mass over the SE.
Quoting Asta:

What is that??

Hi Asta...From the 7 a.m. NHC DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
. . . THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N W OF 88W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF 87W.

MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA IS BEING ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER THENFLUENCE OF HURRICANE IDA AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N81W.

I'm sure it's perfectly clear to you now ;) The big blob in the Gulf is aka "the BOC low."
456 i thought high pressure from the N was turning it back E, not the cold front(trough)? I thought the trough is suppossed to weaken it some? Also what keeps the mets saying its going to speed up when it hits the GOM? I probably just dont understand, but i know they said something about high pressure turning Ida E.
Quoting MsBlanch:
456 Ivan is the "I" storm that comes to mind, but that is because he knocked us down, what are the other "I" storms?

What are thoughts as to the NHC being so quiet? Can we assume Ida will not survive the Gulf waters?



If we assume the "I" storm from any season

Ike 08
Ivan 04
Isabel 03
Isidore 02.

all these are retired.

Now, the NHC went from dissipation in 5 days to Ida sustaining hurricane strength all the way to extratropical transition, just shy of the Gulf coast.

The latest wind shear forecast supports this by showing modest shear ahead if Ida.

If she weakens, which I think, it will be gradual.

The NHC cannot issue tropical storm watches and warnings, If Ida is non tropical so the NWSs are the best bets.

Frankly if Ida becomes extratropical, the final advisory will be given, even though there maybe a storm there.
The Waters in the gulf are warm enough to support Ida as long as she moves through at a decent clip.. They just aren't warm to any great depth right now.
2591. oakland
IMO= In My Opinion
Quoting ClearwaterSteve:
Thank you Kman. I value your opinion as you know from the last 3 years.


You're welcome. I was just looking at the WV loop of the GOM and it appears to me that the upper level flow around the East side of the BOC low is moving East towards Ida and is oriented S to N. Ida looks as if it has made a turn more to the NNW or due N but it is difficult to know for sure from sat imagery where the eye is obscured.

The cancun radar will confirm or refute this with the next few frames but if a turn has happened and is sustained this will affect many things further downstream.

I've lived In Saint Pete my whole life. Back in 1996, Tropical Storm Josephine hit up near Apalachicola yet here in Saint Pete, we had winds well over 50mph from an extended squall line, it was wild. There was also a lot of flooding in the neighborhoods close to Tampa Bay. If Ida turns to the East at some point, I feel there may be a chance that she could drag a squall line over the area again. It's not a good idea to let your guard down on the west coast of Florida.
Here is the link from Wikipedia of Josephine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Josephine_%281996%29
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 i thought high pressure from the N was turning it back E, not the cold front(trough)? I thought the trough is suppossed to weaken it some? Also what keeps the mets saying its going to speed up when it hits the GOM? I probably just dont understand, but i know they said something about high pressure turning Ida E.


Look at the frontal trough at 90W. That is what turning Ida towards the east. High pressure north and east of Ida is steering Ida NW, NNW at the moment.

The trough will weaken Ida and turn it extratropical.

Storms speed up while recurving especially ahead of frontal troughs, westerlies are strong winds.



3 days
I just wanted to take a few minutes to thank Hurrican Ida from bringing warm air back to the Panhandle and making winter feel just a bit shorter.
2597. TXCHIC
hello!!! am i being ignored or do u guys just not want to answer me? DOES ANYONE THINK THAT IDA WILL JOG MORE WEST ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF? AND HIT MORE OF LOUISIANA OR TEXAS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF IDA?
Quoting Weather456:


If we assume the "I" storm from any season

Ike 08
Ivan 04
Isabel 03
Isidore 02.

all these are retired.

Now, the NHC went from dissipation in 5 days to Ida sustaining hurricane strength all the way to extratropical transition, just shy of the Gulf coast.

The latest wind shear forecast supports this by showing modest shear ahead if Ida.

If she weakens, which I think, it will be gradual.

The NHC cannot issue tropical storm watches and warnings, If Ida is non tropical so the NWSs are the best bets.

Frankly if Ida becomes extratropical, the final advisory will be given, even though there maybe a storm there.
Thanks, I also keep hearing and seeing Mobile. being brought up. I hope were not on the E side or direct hit. when you film these storms how close are you to the water?
2599. surfmom
Quoting Nolehead:
morning surfmom and any surfer along the GOM...headhigh surf this morning getting some coffee and getting ready to hit it...calling for 15-20' by Tue...who woulda thunk this????


waves not up here yet....
GULFSTER SURF REPORT

IDA, now beginning to pop her head into the Gulf has been intensifying over night as she moved over the warm Carib water. She looks to spin up to a Cat2 before losing some of her steam over the cooler Gulf waters late tomorrow, but she's looking very healthy today. It will be only a matter of time before groomed ground swell lines reach the island. Early this morning we still have flat conditions and stiff ENE winds. A low tide @ 10:20 this morning will be 1 of only 2 tides today. Plenty of surf on the way and we will update as things start to progress... Stay tuned! Gulf Temp 76

Nole
- can't tell if I'm getting more nervous cause my kid will be surfing this big stuff or because it may come knocking on our door.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, I also keep hearing and seeing Mobile. being brought up. I hope were not on the E side or direct hit. when you film these storms how close are you to the water?


??? I think you mean Cyclone0Z, lol
Just read on our local mets website that the state of Louisiana has never been hit by a hurricane in the month of November. Interesting..
Quoting TXCHIC:
hello!!! am i being ignored or do u guys just not want to answer me? DOES ANYONE THINK THAT IDA WILL JOG MORE WEST ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF? AND HIT MORE OF LOUISIANA OR TEXAS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF IDA?


I don't think anyone is deliberately ignoring you, just that the blog is moving fast. Texas does not seem to be in the frame now and with the advancing trough from the NW I would more expect a shift in the track to the East than one to the West. Just follow along and watch it.
Quoting TXCHIC:
hello!!! am i being ignored or do u guys just not want to answer me? DOES ANYONE THINK THAT IDA WILL JOG MORE WEST ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF? AND HIT MORE OF LOUISIANA OR TEXAS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF IDA?


unlikely for Texas. If you look at the BOC system, its moving away from Texas so you already begin to see the motion in the atmosphere.
2604. bjdsrq
Quoting Flawestcoast:
There is only one thing for sure and that is wherever it is supposed to hit, it will hit somewhere else. On Friday we were at the northern edge of the cone in Tampa, with a weak extratropical storm in the southern GOM. Anyone living in Pinellas County knows about our Charlie debacle in 04. In two hours the track changed by 100 miles.


That 100 mile landfall error for charely is way misunderstood. When the storm track parallels the coast, a tiny error left or right makes a *huge* difference in where it comes ashore. This is what happened with Charley. NHC understood this well and had warnings up and down the coast, but they and the TV media failed to communicate this effectively to our resident simpletons. Majority of folks mistakenly think of a storm as a dot following a pencil thin line because they take graphics literally.
Quoting Weather456:


??? I think you mean Cyclone0Z, lol
yea thanks lol
Tampa Shield??? Never heard of that.

Quoting TXCHIC:
hello!!! am i being ignored or do u guys just not want to answer me? DOES ANYONE THINK THAT IDA WILL JOG MORE WEST ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF? AND HIT MORE OF LOUISIANA OR TEXAS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF IDA?


I really doubt Texas will get hit by Ida.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.
And this is what causes the biggest problems. People being unaware of what is going on.
okay offshore winds 3 ft surf mom?
2611. MSKajun
cyclone,
I live near Ocean Springs MS. These people must not have a tv. The local weather here has said we had something out there for a few days. Also how we are in for very high tides. Up to 5' or more. Just checked out by the beach this morning and we are about a foot above normal. We still have alot of northerners here that moved after Katrina, so most are about to learn a valuable lesson.
2612. TXCHIC
thanks Kman and 456. sorry, i'm just a little nervous.rita and ike has me a little shaky. just don't trust this late november storm and all of the uncertainty.i've been watching the cone and it now includes more of LA. too close to home for me. thanks again.
Quoting alaina1085:
Just read on our local mets website that the state of Louisiana has never been hit by a hurricane in the month of November. Interesting..
I guess there is a first for everything. Just be safe.
2614. bjdsrq
Quoting sporteguy03:
Tampa Shield??? Never heard of that.


Let's just hope when that fallacy is exposed it's not a major hurricane. That feature known as Tampa Bay is evidence in itself that huge storms do hit the region.
2615. 1965
Ida is going to thread the needle near dead center of the Yucatan Channel. All systems go for the next 18 hours or so. Can she make it to CAT three. I think she makes a run at it.

Quoting CycloneOz:
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.
Amazing, It shows you what kind of bang up job the local weather news is doing!
Quoting charlottefl:


That image tells me three things. The first is that the eye has shrunk and is closed off, the second is that indicates strengthening and thirdly, it has jogged to the N. Whether the jog is a wobble or not remains to be seen but if it heralds a move back to a N track then the NHC will be hard at work for the new package.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, I also keep hearing and seeing Mobile. being brought up. I hope were not on the E side or direct hit. when you film these storms how close are you to the water?


Ida is projected to be weakening as it approaches the coast. If so, I will be on the coast.

Now...which coast? Biloxi? Orange Beach? Dauphin Island? Perdido Key? Santa Rosa Island?

Your guess is as good as mine today...
Our local mets here in Clearwater are great at forecasting an hour before the actual event occurs. You get beyond an hour, and they really struggle.
Quoting MSKajun:
cyclone,
I live near Ocean Springs MS. These people must not have a tv. The local weather here has said we had something out there for a few days. Also how we are in for very high tides. Up to 5' or more. Just checked out by the beach this morning and we are about a foot above normal. We still have alot of northerners here that moved after Katrina, so most are about to learn a valuable lesson.


I agree Kajun - but I also think folks have just turned off their internal weather radar - it's Novement - no one is paying any attention because frankly - this is a highly unusual event - they don't expect it - after all - hurricane season is over.
No one is immune to tropical cyclones if you live in the zone. It's not a matter of what, if or history, its a matter of when.
2622. surfmom
Quoting CycloneOz:
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.


bhawahahahaha
that was me yesterday, the bearer of Hurricane Potential News...
Nicely reminded everyone to keep an eye on the storm and make preps regarding the horses, feed etc. They all looked at me as if I was crazed & looney surfer - "what storm?" "Season is Over"
Hope they took the information to heart
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I guess there is a first for everything. Just be safe.

Thanks. If the projected path holds true looks like we are only in for 20mph winds. The rain will be the threat here.

2624. beell
How bout that 12AM Thursday position

Is the NHC a little bit rattled?

2616. stormsurge39 2:03 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.
Amazing, It shows you what kind of bang up job the local weather news is doing!


same here....no local news period...just unreal...went to wallyworld yesterday and got more supplies and people just had no idea...thank goodness i keep up with the weather for my family....sure can't trust the Gov'e for anything these days...
Quoting beell:
How bout that 12AM Thursday position

Is the NHC a little bit rattled?



lol lol lol
Quoting beell:
How bout that 12AM Thursday position

Is the NHC a little bit rattled?



That could be off 250 miles now IF Ida has resume a N track.
Quoting beell:
How bout that 12AM Thursday position

Is the NHC a little bit rattled?

If Ida makes that big hook that shows on the 5 day track any chance she could cross Cuba back into the Caribbean ? Please say NO.
2629. sails1
It appears that in the last frame Ida has jogged to the NNE. It could be a slight wobble or might become a trend to the NE? Does anyone else notice this?
Seems to me she's slowed just a bit again..
Quoting beell:
How bout that 12AM Thursday position

Is the NHC a little bit rattled?



LOL, wow... they need some coffee. Nice catch beell... hehe.
Quoting Weather456:
No one is immune to tropical cyclones if you live in the zone. It's not a matter of what, if or history, its a matter of when.
Has a hurricane ever hit the N Gulf Coast in Nov.? Well that we know of?
2633. MSKajun
Same here novice, November and El Nino. But as soon as we heard there was something out there we jumped on the blog. We got 2 1/2 feet in the house for Katrina (and we are 2 1/2 feet on blocks). Still can't figure out this storm surge thing. My biggest problem will probably be getting to work. Shipyard will probably shut down.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Has a hurricane ever hit the N Gulf Coast in Nov.? Well that we know of?


I actually don't know that, lol. But if someone who knows about Gulf coast hurricanes could answer that would be appreciated.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Ida is projected to be weakening as it approaches the coast. If so, I will be on the coast.

Now...which coast? Biloxi? Orange Beach? Dauphin Island? Perdido Key? Santa Rosa Island?

Your guess is as good as mine today...
Sorry Cyclone, I have banned Biloxi and Dauphin Island from the list sorry...lol
2636. surfmom
ahhh, here we go : )

ating Height Period Swell Dir Wind Weather
Sun
11/8

1.5ft 3secs 100° 21mph E - Offshore - 87° Mostly Cloudy 80f
Mon
11/9

2ft 6secs 196° 21mph ESE - Offshore - 113° Overcast 81f
Tue
11/10

2.5ft 6secs 208° 16mph S - Cross/offshore - 173° Rain 80f
Wed
11/11
Star
2.5ft 8secs 248° 3mph NW - Onshore - 306° Thunderstorms 79f
Thu
11/12

1.5ft 8secs 247° 14mph NE - Offshore - 51° Sunny 70f
Fri
11/13

1ft 6secs 250° 9mph ENE - Offshore - 71° Sunny 72f
Sat
11/14

0.5ft 5secs 264° 8mph E - Offshore - 85° Sunny 74f
BUOY
W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
(42036)
Swell 6ft 6secs
Wind 25mph
7:00am Sun 8th November
Quoting stormsurge39:
Has a hurricane ever hit the N Gulf Coast in Nov.? Well that we know of?


I know Louisiana hasnt been hit in the month of Novemeber. Not sure about the other states.
Quoting Flawestcoast:
Our local mets here in Clearwater are great at forecasting an hour before the actual event occurs. You get beyond an hour, and they really struggle.

Well, it is Sunday and everybody's short-staffed these days...
The NHC seriously needs to fix that chart in post 2624.

That is too funny. It looks like Ida spends a week and half in the GOM.
Quoting surfmom:
ahhh, here we go : )

ating Height Period Swell Dir Wind Weather
Sun
11/8

1.5ft 3secs 100° 21mph E - Offshore - 87° Mostly Cloudy 80f
Mon
11/9

2ft 6secs 196° 21mph ESE - Offshore - 113° Overcast 81f
Tue
11/10

2.5ft 6secs 208° 16mph S - Cross/offshore - 173° Rain 80f
Wed
11/11
Star
2.5ft 8secs 248° 3mph NW - Onshore - 306° Thunderstorms 79f
Thu
11/12

1.5ft 8secs 247° 14mph NE - Offshore - 51° Sunny 70f
Fri
11/13

1ft 6secs 250° 9mph ENE - Offshore - 71° Sunny 72f
Sat
11/14

0.5ft 5secs 264° 8mph E - Offshore - 85° Sunny 74f
BUOY
W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
(42036)
Swell 6ft 6secs
Wind 25mph
7:00am Sun 8th November
Hey, can you link me to the source of that please?
Quoting TXCHIC:
hello!!! am i being ignored or do u guys just not want to answer me? DOES ANYONE THINK THAT IDA WILL JOG MORE WEST ONCE IT ENTERS THE GULF? AND HIT MORE OF LOUISIANA OR TEXAS FEEL THE EFFECTS OF IDA?


Probably both.
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Sorry Cyclone, I have banned Biloxi and Dauphin Island from the list sorry...lol


LOL...now that's funny! Thanks for the chuckle! :D
Storm Surge I just found this

"November hurricanes hitting the United States are even more rare. Since 1900, 4 hurricanes have hit the United States and all have been Category 1 and all hit Florida!"
2644. eddye
i see know that se fl on accuweather has 55 mph gust for us and 75 for tampa
From my experience with tracking hurricanes there will be wobbles. Wobbels have to last to change the track significantly.
Quoting CycloneOz:


LOL...now that's funny! Thanks for the chuckle! :D
Well I live 3 miles north of Dauphin Island bridge. Both of those spots put me on the bad side and I will have none of that. I have things to do and people to see.lol
Quoting surfmom:
ahhh, here we go : )

ating Height Period Swell Dir Wind Weather
Sun
11/8

1.5ft 3secs 100° 21mph E - Offshore - 87° Mostly Cloudy 80f
Mon
11/9

2ft 6secs 196° 21mph ESE - Offshore - 113° Overcast 81f
Tue
11/10

2.5ft 6secs 208° 16mph S - Cross/offshore - 173° Rain 80f
Wed
11/11
Star
2.5ft 8secs 248° 3mph NW - Onshore - 306° Thunderstorms 79f
Thu
11/12

1.5ft 8secs 247° 14mph NE - Offshore - 51° Sunny 70f
Fri
11/13

1ft 6secs 250° 9mph ENE - Offshore - 71° Sunny 72f
Sat
11/14

0.5ft 5secs 264° 8mph E - Offshore - 85° Sunny 74f
BUOY
W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
(42036)
Swell 6ft 6secs
Wind 25mph
7:00am Sun 8th November




Oh you can be sure im excited about this! its a rare day that im excited about surfing conditions on the west coast lol, sabastein inlet(or however you speel it) over on the east coast is the best place to surf though
Quoting Weather456:
The NHC seriously needs to fix that chart in post 2624.

That is too funny. It looks like Ida spends a week and half in the GOM.


I think they are calling for a loop
2650. tramp96
Quoting kmanislander:


That image tells me three things. The first is that the eye has shrunk and is closed off, the second is that indicates strengthening and thirdly, it has jogged to the N. Whether the jog is a wobble or not remains to be seen but if it heralds a move back to a N track then the NHC will be hard at work for the new package.



What happens if it goes to the N.? More chance of landfall at a hurricane
2651. VTG
Has a hurricane ever hit the N Gulf Coast in Nov.? Well that we know of?

Hurricane Kate (1985) made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.
2625. Nolehead

People are not really paying attention to the GoM... I'm in Apalachicola this morning, getting ready to head back home to Destin/Niceville. This morning along the docks I heard a couple of people mention Ida, but no one seemed to know where she was or what the forecasters have said. They seemed to have a very lackadaisical attitude and absolutely no concern what so ever about Ida...
and this is a fishing community!


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Link

This is the link I found that information on
Just seems to me way too early to say in an area is "in the clear" when the system still has not passed your area, even on the NHC 5 day energy gets pushed to FL Peninsula and if a squall line line with severe weather comes with it does not make me right now feel that areas are in the clear.
2656. surfmom
Quoting Nolehead:
2616. stormsurge39 2:03 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.
Amazing, It shows you what kind of bang up job the local weather news is doing!


same here....no local news period...just unreal...went to wallyworld yesterday and got more supplies and people just had no idea...thank goodness i keep up with the weather for my family....sure can't trust the Gov'e for anything these days...


This is true - but look at all the people here checking things out. (surfers excluded) It's like Weather456 said - if you are in the zone sooner or later you will be affected - it the responsibility of people living in the areas to be vigilant. I try to be as self-reliant as possible.

Then there is the denial - saw that yesterday - folks didn't want to know & mostly nahhhhh not in November. So stupid is a real thing too.

I am bummed that I may be pulling out the hurricane shutters for the rental condo after they were put away......
good eye, beell. maybe somebody over there got their cage rattled for misjudging intensity. or maybe they're running on interns over the weekend, or maybe thats right? who knows.
bbl
2604. bjdsrq 1:59 PM GMT on November 08, 2009
Quoting Flawestcoast:
There is only one thing for sure and that is wherever it is supposed to hit, it will hit somewhere else. On Friday we were at the northern edge of the cone in Tampa, with a weak extratropical storm in the southern GOM. Anyone living in Pinellas County knows about our Charlie debacle in 04. In two hours the track changed by 100 miles.


That 100 mile landfall error for charely is way misunderstood. When the storm track parallels the coast, a tiny error left or right makes a *huge* difference in where it comes ashore. This is what happened with Charley. NHC understood this well and had warnings up and down the coast, but they and the TV media failed to communicate this effectively to our resident simpletons. Majority of folks mistakenly think of a storm as a dot following a pencil thin line because they take graphics literally.


However, this is from the NHC at 5:00am. You read this and clearly the thinking is that Charlie will come ashore further up the coast and not close to where it made landfall.


DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS
INDICATED.
Quoting kmanislander:


I think they are calling for a loop


look at the forecast points carefully.

They have 12 am thursay between 12am Monday and 12am Tuesday.

2660. tramp96
What does it mean if Ida takes a jog to the north?
Quoting alaina1085:
Storm Surge I just found this

"November hurricanes hitting the United States are even more rare. Since 1900, 4 hurricanes have hit the United States and all have been Category 1 and all hit Florida!"
That is very interesting! Forecast doesnt have it making a direct hit but if it does looks like we may be making known history! Thanks
Good morning Kman. I see we're both in the position of watching from afar as a storm hits home. So far just lots of rain and wind (are the reports) - all good on your end too?
2663. surfmom
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Hey, can you link me to the source of that please?


will try - I'm not techno talented
Link
2664. dmdhdms
Quoting CycloneOz:
Very interesting at breakfast this morning near Diamondhead, MS at the Waffle House.

The waitresses saw my hurricane van and asked me about it...as I was updating my blog at the table.

"There's a hurricane coming into the Gulf," I said.

"What?" one of them replied. "Isn't hurricane season over?"

I showed 10 people the Tropical / Hurricane link here at WU.

They all were incredulous.

There has been no mention of a hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast to date in this area.

When I was filling up my spare gas cans (for $2.39 a gallon) outside of Biloxi, a cop was filling up at the next stall.

I asked her were they ready for the hurricane.

"What hurricane?" she replied.


The media really has not started the blitz here as of yet, although the NWS in NOLA has issued warnings as of this morning. I suspect we will start to see some action as there are a great many folks here afflicted with a from of PTSD from the aberration of 2005. I am paying very close attention from the Diamondhead area. I also plan to put some of that $2.39 gas in a couple of gas cans just in case.
2665. Ossqss
Is this still worth anything?

FROM USA TODAY:

Hurricane Kate in 1985 was the last November hurricane to hit the USA, and also one of November's six major hurricanes. Kate was a Category 3 hurricane on Nov. 20 and 21 in the Gulf of Mexico, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before hitting the Florida Panhandle where it was blamed for five deaths.

The "Yankee hurricane" of 1935 formed over the Atlantic Ocean and moved to the southwest to hit the Miami area with 75 mph winds on Nov. 4. It moved along the Keys and then north into the Gulf of Mexico where it looped back around toward the east, but died before hitting Florida again. To many people in Florida any visitor from the north is a "Yankee," thus the "Yankee hurricane."

Storm number 2 of 1925. Only two tropical storms formed in 1925 with the first coming ashore near Brownsville, Texas, as a tropical storm in September. On Nov. 30, 1925 the year's second tropical storm strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane shortly before coming ashore south of Tampa Bay, Fla. After weakening back into a tropical storm, it crossed Florida to strengthen into a hurricane, but weakened into a tropical storm before hitting the North Carolina Outer Banks on Dec. 2. It was blamed for about 50 deaths, mostly on ships at sea.

Storm number 14 of 1916. Unlike 1925, 1916 was a busy year with 14 tropical storms on the record and all but three of them becoming hurricanes. Storm 14 formed in the western Caribbean on Nov. 11, but remained a tropical storm until Nov. 15 when it was off the western tip of Cuba where it became a category 1 hurricane that moved to the northeast along the Florida Keys with 75 mph winds and then into the Bahamas where it died.
2667. surfmom
Quoting Chicklit:

Well, it is Sunday and everybody's short-staffed these days...


ROTFL
Quoting Weather456:


look at the forecast points carefully.

They have 12 am thursay between 12am Monday and 12am Tuesday.



And if you look close enough, you'll see a line pointing to the white "D".
Quoting surfmom:


will try - I'm not techno talented
Link
Thanks, it worked.
I have so much to do today! YET I am suddenly glued to my computer looking at the radar.. Is it moving NW or N? If it's more N what changes will that make to the projected path? Instead of cleaning the bathrooms should I be on the roof cleaning the gutters? Strangely I fear an extra-tropical storm more than toprical.. And I don't get the timing. If it's moving 11 MPH how it is going to be way up in the Northern gulf in two days? I swear IVAN took 4 days just to get 1/2 that far!

Wish I did my Sunday Chores BEFORE turning on my computer!
Quoting jamnkats:
Good morning Kman. I see we're both in the position of watching from afar as a storm hits home. So far just lots of rain and wind (are the reports) - all good on your end too?


Yes, thankfully. Only rain at home but today should be fairly sunny there.
2672. 1965
12z suite is now tightly clustered around landfall near Mobile. Coastal SE Louisiana over to Apalachicola looks to be in for a blow.

2673. P451


Quoting stormy2008:


And if you look close enough, you'll see a line pointing to the white "D".


That is even funnier. I did not even see it. lol
Speaking "I" storms...we forgot one...Irene in 1999. As I recall the NHC blew that track too. I remember it coming straight across the Everglades and dumping 15 inches of rain on South Florida. They never even called it a Hurricane until after the event. Beware of the late season "I" storms....though Irene's track was a little more to the East than Ida's.
Poor position of the text on the NHC 5 day graphic, 12 Thu is to the "D" west of Tampa, you have to look carefully for the line connecting the two.
Quoting tramp96:
What does it mean if Ida takes a jog to the north?
Really not a whole lot if it doesnt trend that way. IMO
2678. beell
Quoting stormy2008:


And if you look close enough, you'll see a line pointing to the white "D".


And an even better eye, stormy!
Thanks. Could have made it a little clearer though.
I knew from moment one, the the NHC expecting Ida to near the eastern tip of mexico just was not going to happen...

I have been expecting a more easterly path all along, and am sticking with that based on what I see.


Who remembers the outcomes of Charley and Wilma? The trough had a stronger influence with both storms then ANY model predicted. This has occurred countless other times with other tropical cyclones.

I don't expect it to turn northeasterly today or anything. However, I do expect a continued more easterly path then the NHC and model consensus shows...

The Cancun radar loop strongly supports my expectation. Its already clearly going to easily miss Mexico to the right on radar.

The NHC shifted their path to quickly overnight, that northwest movement would be short lived as I suspected.
2680. eddye
SE FLWE BE GETING A LOT OF WINDS TORNADOES POSSIBLE also a lot of rain proble 3inches
2681. surfmom
Quoting Beachfoxx:
2625. Nolehead

People are not really paying attention to the GoM... I'm in Apalachicola this morning, getting ready to head back home to Destin/Niceville. This morning along the docks I heard a couple of people mention Ida, but no one seemed to know where she was or what the forecasters have said. They seemed to have a very lackadaisical attitude and absolutely no concern what so ever about Ida...
and this is a fishing community!


I hear you Foxxy - mostly I think people believe nothing can get up and run in the "cooler" temp. Little do they know......the Lady of the Gulf and Mother Nature can still boogey-woogey

ahhhh - you are in the LAND OF OYSTERS!!!!
Quoting dmdhdms:


The media really has not started the blitz here as of yet, although the NWS in NOLA has issued warnings as of this morning. I suspect we will start to see some action as there are a great many folks here afflicted with a from of PTSD from the aberration of 2005. I am paying very close attention from the Diamondhead area. I also plan to put some of that $2.39 gas in a couple of gas cans just in case.


That 2.39 gas is at the Pilot station just off I-10 / Biloxi exit.

Just had three families come up to me here at the rest area.

They wanted a briefing.
Quoting Weather456:


look at the forecast points carefully.

They have 12 am thursay between 12am Monday and 12am Tuesday.



I noticed that and then saw the depression symbol to the right. Threw me off. Looks like they fixed it LOL

Quoting Weather456:
The NHC seriously needs to fix that chart in post 2624.

That is too funny. It looks like Ida spends a week and half in the GOM.


when i first looked at it, I thought same... but if you double click and look at larger map you can see the line for thurs is just hidden in the cone.
beachfox....that is so true....and yes surfmom people will freak this afternoon i'm suspecting (stay away from wallyworld if you can LOL).....that image you have there p451 is very interesting....20'+ wow........
If that is 5 day track , would it still be a hurricane as it is marked?
Quoting CycloneOz:


That 2.39 gas is at the Pilot station just off I-10 / Biloxi exit.

Just had three families come up to me here at the rest area.

They wanted a briefing.
thanks for that was goiing to ask but was off topic
2688. Asta
Quoting Weather456:
Rapid scan

Quoting dmdhdms:


The media really has not started the blitz here as of yet, although the NWS in NOLA has issued warnings as of this morning. I suspect we will start to see some action as there are a great many folks here afflicted with a from of PTSD from the aberration of 2005. I am paying very close attention from the Diamondhead area. I also plan to put some of that $2.39 gas in a couple of gas cans just in case.

Most people were focussed on the LSU game and now the Saints... Hopefully they will pay attention and the local news service will give info duinrg the game.. That way they'll know if they don't already. The key is getting schools and businesses to act in a cautious and responsible manner. early.
No one want s a lost day of business or school. but then they don't have to worry about your flooded out car either.... I hope that they start making decisions earlier than later.. like 7:00am Monday??? way too late for many long distance commuters....
For some reason, the weather briefing I just gave got me all pumped up.

Where is this 'cane? I'm ready!
Glad to see it look like SW FL is in the clear - no worries! I do see the models making this loop though. Is it possible since the water is warmer here in S FL in the Gulf that Ida could regenerate when making her Southward jog later in the week?
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, thankfully. Only rain at home but today should be fairly sunny there.
Not yet. Still extremely overcast and rain off and on.
2692. surfmom
This is woo-woo, but I often look at things in cycles CHARLOTTEFL post 2666 - thanks for your historical post - that storm in SWFL November 30th has haunted me for a long time.....when you compare our economic cycle to that of 1925 --one wonders if we have a repeat cycle going on here.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not yet. Still extremely overcast and rain off and on.


At least I don't have to feel bad about missing my Sunday round of golf LOL
2694. beell
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...GULF COASTAL AREA...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST TUESDAY WILL REMAIN TROPICAL STORM IDA.
THE STORM IS FORECAST BY NHC TO APPROACH THE CNTRL OR NE GULF COAST
TUESDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EWD OR SEWD LATER
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST...IDA COULD MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST FOR A SMALL WARM SECTOR TO ADVECT INLAND. IF THIS OCCURS
LARGE HODOGRAPHS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT
BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOK UPDATES FOR THE CNTRL OR NERN GULF COAST
IF FUTURE NHC FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IDA WILL APPROACH THE
GULF COAST.

..DIAL.. 11/08/2009
Anway that is it for me for now. Have a great day. Will check in later
Quoting kmanislander:


At least I don't have to feel bad about missing my Sunday round of golf LOL
Would not be an enjoyable day at all.
2697. eddye
naplesdid u read my comment
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Glad to see it look like SW FL is in the clear - no worries! I do see the models making this loop though. Is it possible since the water is warmer here in S FL in the Gulf that Ida could regenerate when making her Southward jog later in the week?
No. It iwll be absorbed into a front by that time.
Quoting kmanislander:


I noticed that and then saw the depression symbol to the right. Threw me off. Looks like they fixed it LOL

Kman did you say earlier it looked like Ida was gaining strength? If she is was would this give the perception that she is moving due N because of her convection tightning around the center?
2700. aquak9
g'morning wu-bloggers

beell- that was probably the second thing I read this morning, at least it's being mentioned finally
2701. surfmom
Quoting RMM34667:
I have so much to do today! YET I am suddenly glued to my computer looking at the radar.. Is it moving NW or N? If it's more N what changes will that make to the projected path? Instead of cleaning the bathrooms should I be on the roof cleaning the gutters? Strangely I fear an extra-tropical storm more than toprical.. And I don't get the timing. If it's moving 11 MPH how it is going to be way up in the Northern gulf in two days? I swear IVAN took 4 days just to get 1/2 that far!

Wish I did my Sunday Chores BEFORE turning on my computer!


Yeah, me too - I just turned into velcro butt

but - the company is really lovely in here today - best blog session I've had in ages : )
2702. FTLGUY
Winds now sustained at 90mph.... movement NW @ 12mph
PensacolaDoug is awake...

I'm headed to his house at Navy Point!

See yall! Time to go have some fun, football, and fishin'!

Oz---
time to hit the waves....everyone be good and lets see what this afternoons forcast looks like...
Yucatan webcams not too bad but it's pushing surf up.
2706. swfla
Normally I just lurk here since Charley caught us by surprise here in FT Myers, but I noticed that nobody seems to reference these lately. Although I saved the site when someone else referenced it here earlier this year. Personally it has become one of my favorites.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/anim8ir.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8ir.html
IS IDA MOVING NORTH? WILL THE EAST TO WEST FLOW AFFECT IDA AND PUSH IT NE?
look for a tornado outbreak with this system
i believe it has returned to a more NW according to the AVN loop
Steve Lyons just called the forcast track "tricky" and said the new guidance is calling for a landfall around eastern Alabama or Western Florida panhandle. TWC isn't my first choice for good info, but other than here it seems to be all I can catch at the moment! Don't like what he said to say the least. He seems most concerned about coastal flooding and not wind so much though.
Quoting weatherman874:
i believe it has returned to a more NW according to the AVN loop


Maybe Ida didn't like bumping into the Yucatan and is dancing around it.
2712. beell
A repost from late last night. Would seem the Big Bend Area of FL would be a spot to watch.

The potential for severe/tornadic storms with this system is of great interest. Tornadic storms from landfalling tropical systems seem to be so capricious. Who knows?

Scientists tell us they are more likely as a storm makes landfall. Frictional effects of the land slow down the winds in the lower levels while the winds up above keep ripping.

Lets say we have east winds at the surface, south at 925mb, and southeast at 850mb. That represents significant "turning of the winds with height. It is thought that the first 3 kilometers are most important when evaluating potential.

Hodographs or in this case IdaHodoGraphs can be used. Although I have never used them "tropically"

Not as complicated as they look. The weather balloon release point is represented by the center of the graph. It goes up a little bit and the distance and direction it has moved from the release point is computed. The graph is upside down. S is at the top. So in the example, the first point means the balloon was blown to the east. Draw a straight line from the center to the first point. Now draw a straight line to the second point. A wind blowing from just south of due east. Remember, the graph is upside down.

Keep doing this for each point and you may be able to imagine that if we draw a line from the origin (center) to the last yellow dot the winds at this level are from the SE. All the points plotted represent a curve. You may have read a bit or two about "curving hodographs.

This is a good example of a curving Hodograph from Apalachicola, FL from a forecast sounding. The 18Z GFS valid Monday afternoon. Only the first 3km are shown here.

If I have time, I will keep looking at these things to see if one area or another seems more "ripe" and post one here or there. Hard part is-this type of setup is certainly not limited to coastal areas. Capricious!

Photobucket
IDA IS MOVING NORTH.
Hurricane Ida's eye is beginning to peak out as of 14:25 UTC.


2715. bwi
2665: I don't know what the modeling's worth, but your post certainly got my attention! 990mb off the mid-atlantic states in November would be a serious deal.
2716. Dakster
Quoting Weather456:
The NHC seriously needs to fix that chart in post 2624.

That is too funny. It looks like Ida spends a week and half in the GOM.


It just might... Can't wait for the next couple of updates today. It shapes what I have to do Monday.
Quoting LAnovice:


Maybe Ida didn't like bumping into the Yucatan and is dancing around it.


thats what im thinking ha
Quoting eddye:
SE FLWE BE GETING A LOT OF WINDS TORNADOES POSSIBLE also a lot of rain proble 3inches


Nope.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hurricane Ida's eye is beginning to peak out as of 14:25 UTC.




she is definitely becoming a cat 2.
Additional upper air data for the 18Z and maybe(?) 06Z models

000
NOUS74 KEHU 072037
ADASRH

ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS
237 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

TO: ATTENTION COASTAL AND FIRST TIER INLAND SR WFOS

FROM: SRH ROC

SUBJECT: NHC REQUEST FOR SPECIAL UPPER AIR RELEASES

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED SPECIAL UPPER AIR
RELEASES IN SUPPORT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. NHC HAS REQUESTED SPECIAL
SOUNDINGS COMMENCING AT 18Z SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8 FROM THE FOLLOWING
SITES...

BRO...DRT...LCH...SHV...JAN...LIX...BMX...TAE...FFC...JAX...TBW...MFL
...AND KEY.
NHC has been good with the track of IDA so far! Does anybody know what weather feature would have IDA turn more Easterly right now?
2722. divdog
Quoting stormsurge39:
NHC has been good with the track of IDA so far! Does anybody know what weather feature would have IDA turn more Easterly right now?
in a word, trough
The Gulf is starting to churn up, probably from the BoC system, but regardless it is just going to get worse.

Pensacola Beach webcam Destin webcams Alabama beach cams
2724. eddye
i just spoke to the nhc they expect us to get some squall lines to come through
2725. IKE
Anybody know what this means? Popped up on the NHC site?

IDA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.HURRICANE IDA

LAZ038-040-058-060-061-062-063-064-068-069-070-MSZ080-081-082-
082100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1011.091108T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W
MS/AL-BORDER 30.38N 88.32W
Quoting Weather456:


she is definitely becoming a cat 2.
456 the more she strengthens, even with factors weakening towards the coast, wont this put it stonger at a possible land fall?
And I'm back in the circle of despair again.......just wish I knew if my students homecoming float was not going to be destroyed......:)

(I live in PB county....)
2728. divdog
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
IDA IS MOVING NORTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWEST...OR 325/10. THIS IS TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
2729. surfmom
Quoting Nolehead:
time to hit the waves....everyone be good and lets see what this afternoons forcast looks like...


Me too -HAVE A SWELL TIME NOLE curious to see what my spot is looking like .... also fun to hang out and watch the pulse fill in - TIME TO ENJOY THE GOOD b/4 I have to deal w/the ick
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
IDA IS MOVING NORTH.
If she keeps this northly move, does this change the forcast for SWF??
Quoting IKE:
Anybody know what this means? Popped up on the NHC site?

IDA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.HURRICANE IDA

LAZ038-040-058-060-061-062-063-064-068-069-070-MSZ080-081-082-
082100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1011.091108T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W
MS/AL-BORDER 30.38N 88.32W
That looks like whats to come. IMO
New orleans is now under a hurricane watch!!!
Quoting IKE:
Anybody know what this means? Popped up on the NHC site?

IDA WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.HURRICANE IDA

LAZ038-040-058-060-061-062-063-064-068-069-070-MSZ080-081-082-
082100-
/O.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1011.091108T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
900 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W
MS/AL-BORDER 30.38N 88.32W


They've posted a Hurricane Watch from Grand Isle, LA to the MS/AL Border.
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
2735. kingy
unfortunately most of the detail from the NHC has been dead wrong on this storm. Someone needs to interupt their weekend and get the hell into the NHC and start injecting some urgency into those folk. If this thing gets to cat 2 today (and it looks like it will now that it missed the yucatan) then the forecast tracks need a serious rethink. Yet again there is more sense spoken by people like weather 456 than there is from the NHC.
2736. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
That looks like whats to come. IMO


Maybe their thinking it will make landfall now...
2737. FTLGUY
Offically forecast track from NHC has it moving NW ... winds 90 mph and gusts to 115mph

Quoting masonsnana:
If she keeps this northly move, does this change the forcast for SWF??
2738. divdog
Quoting masonsnana:
If she keeps this northly move, does this change the forcast for SWF??
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWEST...OR 325/10. THIS IS TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.read the advisory
Just a quick question, should i consider boarding up the sliding glass doors at fort morgan
2740. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.


That's kind of what I thought.

Thanks.
Could someone please post the new five-day forcast cone? Very interesting change!
watch out Louisiana!
2743. afj3
Quoting stormsurge39:
That looks like whats to come. IMO


I saw that, too
2744. IKE
..CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 8
Location: 21.2°N 86.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
2745. divdog
some serious sf wishcasting going on. the watch is for la,ms not SF.
Quoting stormsurge39:
NHC has been good with the track of IDA so far! Does anybody know what weather feature would have IDA turn more Easterly right now?


The feature on the left

9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 8
Location: 21.2°N 86.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
2748. mac3821
NWS just issued Hurricane watches for the gulf coast.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/
Quoting divdog:
some serious sf wishcasting going on. the watch is for la,ms not SF.
just a drop of rain and a gust or two
2750. afj3
Latest advisories are out...
Quoting stormy2008:


They've posted a Hurricane Watch from Grand Isle, LA to the MS/AL Border.


About time they do/say something!! Now hopefully people start to pay attention and taker her seriously.
Quoting weatherman874:


thats what im thinking ha
It looks like she is trying to avoid any landmass while she passes through the channel.
Quoting divdog:
some serious sf wishcasting going on. the watch is for la,ms not SF.


Yup.
Hurricane watches for the Gulf Coast
2755. IKE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...HURRICANE WATCH
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.2N 86.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
Quoting FTLGUY:
Offically forecast track from NHC has it moving NW ... winds 90 mph and gusts to 115mph



Certainly..the more north track means the storms would turn to the east sooner IMO
lol peeps this is not going to adjust east of Panama City south along Florida... This will probably make landfall from near Pensacola-Biloxi... good 75% chance that will happen.
2759. divdog
Quoting portcharlotte:


Certainly..the more north track means the storms would turn to the east sooner IMO
huh ?????
2760. IKE
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.


If you're east of the Mississippi/Alabama border, that's in all likelihood you.
Quoting portcharlotte:


Certainly..the more north track means the storms would turn to the east sooner IMO


Nope.
Quoting CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug is awake...

I'm headed to his house at Navy Point!

See yall! Time to go have some fun, football, and fishin'!

Oz---


No way! I live down the street too! Welcome to Pcola. My suggestion is not to chase from Dauphin Island...they go under water first and that is a really long bridge to try to come back across! You know it's gonna be here because the road between Pensacola Beach and Navarre and the road to Ft. Pickens was just recently finished-AGAIN! Also, power was just restored to the fort. Just complete from Ivan (04) and Dennis (05). Go relax...have a bushwacker and a Surf Burger!
Have a bad feeling about water rise especially near where Pcola Doug and I live, doesn't take much at all before we are rippin out 4 ft. of drywall and redoing some electrical! Katrina, Ike and Gustav caused serious water rise and they hit no where near here. Beaches will probably be OK just because they are built to the newest codes since Ivan...most everyone is on stilts now. Problem is neighborhoods around the Bays, Bayous, Canals, etc.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
Guys can you believe we are tracking a freakin cane in Novemember!?! And its in the gulf! It just hit me :p I think Oz got me all hyped up.
2765. IKE
Oops...

She has slowed down just a tad 12 mph down to 10 mph. And she's about to close off her eye wall.
Quoting alaina1085:
Guys can you believe we are tracking a freakin cane in Novemember!?! And its in the gulf! It just hit me :p I think Oz got me all hyped up.


It continues to hit me gradually
Quoting divdog:
some serious sf wishcasting going on. the watch is for la,ms not SF.
Which can change at any time.
Hooray for the florida shield!

Quoting IKE:
Oops...

you wammyied yourself about a month ago got fuel?
Seems like Ida's going to be the main event for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season.. As usual its the 'I' named storm.
Quoting alaina1085:
Guys can you believe we are tracking a freakin cane in Novemember!?! And its in the gulf! It just hit me :p I think Oz got me all hyped up.


Actually tropical storms and hurricanes are normal for November..otherwise the seasons offical end would be Oct 31st... but most of these are far out in the Atlantic. But waters in the NW carribean will support a TS or hurricane up to as late as Dec 10th (about abouts) .. just matters on how many cold fronts have come down by then.
Quoting charlottefl:
She has slowed down just a tad 12 mph down to 10 mph. And she's about to close off her eye wall.


She's enjoyin her vacation! Watch out Cancun, she may moon ya! ok im kiddin..
Shes strengthening.
2774. tacoman
latest bulletin on hurricane ida ...the info from my office indicated ida is moving nw 14mph..ida continues to strengthen slowly maybe reaching 100mph when all is said and done...ida continues to threaten parts of the gulfcoast from la to pensecola..the squalls will begin to reach the la coast late tonight and continue thru tuesday..a gale warning will go up for the la and miss coasts sometime this evening..the latest info out of my office and all the other data i have consumed tells me ida will come within 75 miles of the mouth of the river when a very strong cold front coming down from the rockies sweeps her east with the geese..it is not out of the question ida scrapes the mobile area then starts to move back south as the high builds...this could all change folks im basing this on the front not slowing down and idas increased speed.we will still have rain from 4-8 inches possible tornados also....ill be back with another update around 2pm this afternoon...all interests from la to tampa fla should keep a very close eye on ida...
2775. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
you wammyied yourself about a month ago got fuel?


I know...I crowed myself.

No...but, I'll gas up my car in a bit.

I don't have a generator.
Quoting IKE:


I know...I crowed myself.

No...but, I'll gas up my car in a bit.

I don't have a generator.


Ike, get the generator! LOL
Quoting IKE:


I know...I crowed myself.

No...but, I'll gas up my car in a bit.

I don't have a generator.


Your not worried about your deck?
3 things that will never happen!

1. Hurricane hitting Tampa

2. Hurricane hitting Jacksonville

3. Cleveland sports team winning a Championship!
2779. eddye
hurriCANE ALLEY 2 SOON BECAUSE WERE GETING BAD SQUALLS HERE I ALLREADY HAD A BAD ONE FLORIDA NOT SAFE YET
Passing Cancun...as i said in my update...it seems they will be apred from the strongest core of winds.

2781. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:


Your not worried about your deck?


Deck? What do you mean?
just teasing good luck
Quoting IKE:


Deck? What do you mean?


Didn't you say you had a deck?
2784. IKE
Quoting scottsvb:
3 things that will never happen!

1. Hurricane hitting Tampa

2. Hurricane hitting Jacksonville

3. Cleveland sports team winning a Championship!


You're correct on #3....lol...probably the other 2 as well.


LOOKS Like twins....the collision of these to lows with the cold front and the pressure gradient created by the high that will be East of this all is in my opinion being completely underplayed.......i hope i'm wrong.
Quoting Weather456:


Fully formed now, little work on the south side and we could be looking at a 105 mph Category 2.
2787. IKE
Quoting BenBIogger:


Didn't you say you had a deck?


No...my house is up on blocks. I can leave and go to a safer place if needed.

This house has survived Opal. Trees a plenty out here. I live in the country.
2788. Dakster
Umm. A huricane watch was just issued for the U.S. North Gulf Coast.
IMO the HURCN Watch is way too pre-mature...THere are many changes upcoming
Here's another record Ida set...beating Felix and Beta!

7th wettest tropical cyclone in Nicaraguan history.
Quoting hurricanealley:
Hooray for the florida shield!

The models show NW Florida getting hit, believe it or not we are a part of Florida, so the shield does not work.
uneducated leftover guess about three days ago 115mph not going to be far off oklahoma character guessed 110
Quoting scottsvb:
3 things that will never happen!

1. Hurricane hitting Tampa

2. Hurricane hitting Jacksonville

3. Cleveland sports team winning a Championship!


1. 1928 Hurricane.
2. True
3. LOL! True
2794. Drakoen
I see Ida is moving through the Yucatan channel still holding her own. Very nice hurricane.

2795. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
The models show NW Florida getting hit, believe it or not we are a part of Florida, so the shield does not work.


3 day cone has it or it's remnants passing over us here in the panhandle. Looks like a good hit from Ida.
Im originally from Cleveland... so I know about them sports..lol and I live in Tampa..and the Tampa shield (that goes out to 85W) prevents anything from coming in from the S or SW.. well thats my X-Files part of it.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Who remembers the outcomes of Charley and Wilma?


The forecast track for Wilma was EXTREMELY accurate from its location just off the Yucatan to landfall in South Florida. I lived through it and DO NOT wish to experience a similar event again.
456...are you sold that the north track will hold that long? I am not
As of 14:45 UTC.
2800. Drakoen
Water vapor imagery shows the trough bulging into the western GOM.
hmmm

Coastal flood
Coastal wind
high seas

tropical or not, just be prepared.
Mission 04 into IDA is feet wet and on route.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Quoting eddye:
hurriCANE ALLEY 2 SOON BECAUSE WERE GETING BAD SQUALLS HERE I ALLREADY HAD A BAD ONE FLORIDA NOT SAFE YET
Remember NW Florida is part of Florida. And the models is pointing right at NW Florida.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 081500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST SUN 08 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-164

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IDA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 09/1800Z,10/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0711A IDA
C. 09/1630Z
D. 26.9N 88.5W
E. 09/1700Z TO 10/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 10/0300Z,0600Z,0900Z
B. AFXXX 0811A IDA
C. 10/0045Z
D. 28.6N 88.3W
E. 10/0200Z TO 10/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: P-3 RESEARCH CONTINUING EVERY 12 HRS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP


Did I miss something? I now wake up this morning to find that the NHC is actually considering the possibility of a land falling hurricane? I thought this was going to be extratropical?

AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
Quoting IKE:
Oops...



Ughhhh, it's worse for us with every new update. guess I'll be heading to Dauphin Island this afternoon to batten down the hatches on the house. I hate late season storms.
Quoting portcharlotte:
456...are you sold that the north track will hold that long? I am not


somewhat...she sped up recently and then slowed. She is not maintaining a constant speed, making timing difficult.

But the trough is already making its way into the GOM, so she might turn a bit shy of the NHC track.
2809. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:


1. 1928 Hurricane.
2. True
3. LOL! True
Tampa had hurricanes in 1921 and 1925....and a few in the 1840,s. They actually had two in one year back then.
Recon on its way! Already getting Data, should be there in about an hour.
2811. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


3 day cone has it or it's remnants passing over us here in the panhandle. Looks like a good hit from Ida.


Extra tropical hurricane? LOL
is ida a cat one or two?
Quoting Drakoen:
Water vapor imagery shows the trough bulging into the western GOM.


What's your take Drak...I can not see this storm going straight north without turning sooner to the east
2814. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Ughhhh, it's worse for us with every new update. guess I'll be heading to Dauphin Island this afternoon to batten down the hatches on the house. I hate late season storms.


I don't blame you. Hope everything turns out okay for you.
Quoting IKE:


3 day cone has it or it's remnants passing over us here in the panhandle. Looks like a good hit from Ida.
Yeah, and i do not have money for gas. They forgot to processed my check and it will not be deposited until Monday or Tuesday.
2816. Drakoen
2817. IKE
Quoting jipmg:


Extra tropical hurricane? LOL


Waiting on new discussion.
Quoting Autistic2:
is ida a cat one or two?


90

strong cat 1
Is it me or is the convection on Ida's N side looking healthier by the frame. We should see the clouds from her in Tally by morning. I am really concerned about the complete lack of alarm by people just because of the page the calender is flipped to.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Mission 04 into IDA is feet wet and on route.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.


I hope NHC uses your BUSTED FORECAST.......LOL...
2821. jipmg
Some crazy winds.. South beach in SLFA has sustained winds of 30mph right now.. idk the gusts
2822. Dakster
Ike are you going to change your nick to Ida when this is all said and done?
2823. hydrus
Quoting portcharlotte:
IMO the HURCN Watch is way too pre-mature...THere are many changes upcoming
I agree with you on that P.C.
Quoting IKE:


Waiting on new discussion.


Yeah....it's very late.
Dr. Masters- Are you watching this? Update soon?
tampa not out of the woods remember charlie moved around
Brave call on the part of NHC to give a 36-48 hr lead time for coastal LA. There are lots of reasons this might not work out, and the 3 day cone is just one of them...36 h track uncertainty is about 500 mi!
2828. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
Yeah, and i do not have money for gas. They forgot to processed my check and it will not be deposited until Monday or Tuesday.


Man...I'm sorry. Will your check definitely be in tomorrow or Tuesday? Hope it's tomorrow.

I don't have a generator. Odds are I will lose electricity if the track verifies.
Recon flying at 21,000 feet
Quoting TampaSpin:


Gotta love the many downcasters that keep saying IDA would get ripped in the GOM by Shear.....guess what that is not going to happen until she reaches the very northern part....click to loop...
I am not downcasting, just a downwishing. We cannot afford time off from work.
Quoting floridabuckeyes:
Speaking "I" storms...we forgot one...Irene in 1999. As I recall the NHC blew that track too. I remember it coming straight across the Everglades and dumping 15 inches of rain on South Florida. They never even called it a Hurricane until after the event. Beware of the late season "I" storms....though Irene's track was a little more to the East than Ida's.


I remember this storm quite well as my father was dying at Baptist Hospital in Miami, and died 2 days after the storm.

IIRC people in Miami even went to work, and by the end of the work day were driving home in squalls with 50-60 mph gusts. The NHC did take a lot of guff after that because it put a lot of people in danger with little warning at all.
Impressive eye now.. Completely closed.

2833. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
Ike are you going to change your nick to Ida when this is all said and done?


How about Idiot for thinking it was over, here?
takes forever to downld that cuban stuff nice picture but
Quoting mossyhead:
I am not downcasting, just a downwishing. We cannot afford time off from work.


AMEN!
2836. jipmg
Quoting mossyhead:
I am not downcasting, just a downwishing. We cannot afford time off from work.


It doesn't matter if you downcast, you don't affect the hurricane
2837. Drakoen
Quoting portcharlotte:


What's your take Drak...I can not see this storm going straight north without turning sooner to the east


That is possible as shown by the UKMET model. Every thing comes down to speed. The DLM shows higher pressure to the southeast of Ida with Ida in the northern periphery of the anitcyclone. The flow in the central GOM is northerly with the incoming trough and the flow over Florida is westerly with the trough in the east and the flow around the periphery of the anticyclone. So it is possible that the system could recurve a bit earlier than the NHC is forecasted. The NHC's cone extends all the way down the south Florida reflecting such a possibility.
Quoting IKE:


Man...I'm sorry. Will your check definitely be in tomorrow or Tuesday? Hope it's tomorrow.

I don't have a generator. Odds are I will lose electricity if the track verifies.


Do you need a place to stay?
Quoting portcharlotte:


What's your take Drak...I can not see this storm going straight north without turning sooner to the east
yeah your right.its going to go ahead of every model and nhc forecast and go to port charlotte.a 2 day nhc forecast has usually been way off before
Quoting AllStar17:


Yeah....it's very late.


very
Quoting Progster:
Brave call on the part of NHC to give a 36-48 hr lead time for coastal LA. There are lots of reasons this might not work out, and the 3 day cone is just one of them...36 h track uncertainty is about 500 mi!


Glad someone called this out..I agree...As Drak said that trough is already in the west Gulf. IDA could easily slow and turn more eastward.. The Watch was too early ...There will be changes. A watch like this leaves Florida thinking they are in the cleat. Very untrue!


Look at the Cone at the end.......All the way to Naples.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I hope NHC uses your BUSTED FORECAST.......LOL...


Gave you credit yesterday... you did pretty good on this one. You were only out by a couple hours... that being said.. I think (hope, really hope) you are out to lunch on your perfect storm.
Quoting IKE:


Man...I'm sorry. Will your check definitely be in tomorrow or Tuesday? Hope it's tomorrow.

I don't have a generator. Odds are I will lose electricity if the track verifies.
Hopefully it will not as bad it could be. But being on the north side of the county like we are, our power should not be off for long. My wife and i sleep with the heat off unless it is freezing or below, but we like to turn the heat on for our showers.
2845. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Do you need a place to stay?


I can go to my mom's if needed. Or a few other places.

Thanks for asking.
What some don't understand the hurricane watch may not necessarily mean landfall, hurricane conditions possible and because the nature and set up this system, the effects may occur ahead of the system.

We already forget the pressure gradient and moisture fetch.
Quoting IKE:


Man...I'm sorry. Will your check definitely be in tomorrow or Tuesday? Hope it's tomorrow.

I don't have a generator. Odds are I will lose electricity if the track verifies.

Is there a new storm center track farther north? It looked to me to skirt just south of the panhandle although the precip forcasts showed a NE track of heavy rains starting at the Mobile area
Quoting Dakster:
Umm. A huricane watch was just issued for the U.S. North Gulf Coast.

When is the next Hurricane IDA Forecast Discussion due out of the nhc?

2850. IKE
Quoting icepilot:

Is there a new storm center track farther north? It looked to me to skirt just south of the panhandle although the precip forcasts showed a NE track of heavy rains starting at the Mobile area


See post 2848.
Quoting scottsvb:
3 things that will never happen!

1. Hurricane hitting Tampa

2. Hurricane hitting Jacksonville

3. Cleveland sports team winning a Championship!
FYI, Navy Met Site takes this across the panhandle and exiting back into Atlantic over Jacksonville FL as a TS. That can mean a path of destruction/damage from Grang Isle LA all the way to Jacksonville FL. Remember the amount of damage it did going across central America. I remind folks of Cent America so people in the above path will be prepared.
2852. bjdsrq
Quoting TampaSpin:
emGotta love the many downcasters that keep saying IDA would get ripped in the GOM by Shear.....guess what that is not going to happen until she reaches the very northern part....click to loop...


If this map pans out, NHC is going to be eating crow and begging for "Obama money" like everyone else.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 081516
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE LAST PASS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
1100 UTC SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND AN ELLIPTICAL EYE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA AND MEXICO SINCE THAT
TIME SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRUCTURE. BASED ON
THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF IDA REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND ITS
COLLEAGUES. THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO RESULTS IN A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO
THE 72-96 HR POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS WELL.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR
MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IS
LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH 48 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE
WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.2N 86.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
Think the pressure gradient is going to be a big deal for the entire gulf coast. I mean hey I'm in the southern part of SWFL and the wind has been howling all week. That will only increase as that gradient gets tighter.
Exactley what is an EXtra tropical Hurricane? Sounds like catch 22 to me.
2856. IKE
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE LAST PASS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
1100 UTC SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND AN ELLIPTICAL EYE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA AND MEXICO SINCE THAT
TIME SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRUCTURE. BASED ON
THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF IDA REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND ITS
COLLEAGUES. THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO RESULTS IN A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO
THE 72-96 HR POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS WELL.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR
MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IS
LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH 48 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE
WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.2N 86.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Also Ida may make landfall as a category 1 non-tropical low. It does not really make a difference.
Quoting portcharlotte:


Glad someone called this out..I agree...As Drak said that trough is already in the west Gulf. IDA could easily slow and turn more eastward.. The Watch was too early ...There will be changes. A watch like this leaves Florida thinking they are in the cleat. Very untrue!
I guess i must get use to other Floridians not thinking NW Florida is not part of Florida even though the capital of Florida is in the panhandle.
portcharlotte - Heck, I was one of those. I saw the cone this morning and was going on with my day as yeah, nothing for SW FL. But you say that, why?
Quoting Drakoen:


That is possible as shown by the UKMET model. Every thing comes down to speed. The DLM shows higher pressure to the southeast of Ida with Ida in the northern periphery of the anitcyclone. The flow in the central GOM is northerly with the incoming trough and the flow over Florida is easterly with the trough in the east and the flow around the periphery of the anticyclone. So it is possible that the system could recurve a bit earlier than the NHC is forecasted. The NHC's cone extends all the way down the south Florida reflecting such a possibility.


Thanks...the advancing trough will eventually change that northerly flow in the central Gulf to more southwesterly
Quoting Autistic2:
Exactley what is an EXtra tropical Hurricane? Sounds like catch 22 to me.
Quoting Autistic2:
Exactley what is an EXtra tropical Hurricane? Sounds like catch 22 to me.


extratropical storm with hurricane force winds.
2862. JamesSA
Can I ask a slightly dumb question? What is preventing Ida from being drawn more west by the low pressure of the storm in the BOC and Western GOM?
I think what will be incredibly interesting will be the pressure gradient from the high to the north and the low to the south. Especially when it starts to go extra-tropical. Don't be surprised to see some very high winds across a good portion of the southeast. Maybe 20-25 mph with gusts over 40mph.
Leaves are turning color in SE TX and we have a hurricane in the Gulf---man, gotta love weather.
Quoting IKE:


See post 2848.


Got it just after the post, thanks, and I'm going to start putting the heavy weather bill in effect - lopsided grin
A wind advisory is in effect for much of Central and South Florida because of pressure gradient between the high and Ida.
2868. bjdsrq
Quoting charlottefl:
Think the pressure gradient is going to be a big deal for the entire gulf coast. I mean hey I'm in the southern part of SWFL and the wind has been howling all week. That will only increase as that gradient gets tighter.


It ain't exactly "howling", just kind of pleasantly breezy, sunny and dry for now. Nice to have the windows open for the first time since April.
New Blog
Quoting Weather456:


extratropical storm with hurricane force winds.


Thanks`, I thoiught that was not possible but hey i don't know much about weather patterns expect to stay away from the real powerfull ones.
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOOKS Like twins....the collision of these to lows with the cold front and the pressure gradient created by the high that will be East of this all is in my opinion being completely underplayed.......i hope i'm wrong.


451 and a few other have been agreeing with that for a couple of days. We will see.
2872. IKE
Looks like landfall forecasted by the NHC to be near Pensacola,FL.

CycloneOZ....you picked the perfect spot.
"THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA."


This may be an interesting thing to watch as well.
Quoting mossyhead:
Hopefully it will not as bad it could be. But being on the north side of the county like we are, our power should not be off for long. My wife and i sleep with the heat off unless it is freezing or below, but we like to turn the heat on for our showers.



i live in milton which is just east of p'cola its kinda ironic how my late great great grandmothers name was ida she passed 2 yrs ago ( may she rest in peace ) and now a storm named after her is comming this way.
lmao
Quoting JamesSA:
Can I ask a slightly dumb question? What is preventing Ida from being drawn more west by the low pressure of the storm in the BOC and Western GOM?


an advancing upper trough. the BOC is just a surface feature.

Also Ida has a lower pressure than the BOC system, it wont be attracted towards something that has a higher pressure.
Good morning.Funny Ida alot further away from us here in Grand Cayman and it is much more squally & rainy today than yesterday.
I think Ida might be headed for SWFL imo, she has slowed a bit from I can tell and resume a more northerly movement, jmo of course.
Quoting Weather456:
Also Ida may make landfall as a category 1 non-tropical low. It does not really make a difference.


If that, strong westerlies should begin to impact the system pretty dramatically as it approaches the gulfcoast. TS winds could spread onshore as the windfield expands during ET transition.
2878. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
What some don't understand the hurricane watch may not necessarily mean landfall, hurricane conditions possible and because the nature and set up this system, the effects may occur ahead of the system.

We already forget the pressure gradient and moisture fetch.


True, but destructive potential increases with the speed of the wind *squared*. 80 kt is 2.5 times more forceful than 50 kt. So while long fetch storm force winds can create significant problems for coastal communities from wave action, and heavy rain is a problem almost everywhere, it is still important to know the track of the area of the strongest winds.
I am not as convinced of this rapid transition to extratropical. ECMWF suggests a band o higher thickness around Ida extending around the eye through landfall, this system may stay intact longer than anyone thinks regardless of the cooler water temperatures. We will see.
Quoting txag91met:
I am not as convinced of this rapid transition to extratropical. ECMWF suggests a band o higher thickness around Ida extending around the eye through landfall, this system may stay intact longer than anyone thinks regardless of the cooler water temperatures. We will see.

i agree
2883. 1965
Quoting bingcrosby:
I think what will be incredibly interesting will be the pressure gradient from the high to the north and the low to the south. Especially when it starts to go extra-tropical. Don't be surprised to see some very high winds across a good portion of the southeast. Maybe 20-25 mph with gusts over 40mph.


Totally agree. Suspect there will be a fair amount of tree damage well inland. Tree damage=power failure. People well inland need to keep apprised of this situation, and not have needless deaths as happened in Alabama and Georgia during Opal.
2884. dearmas
Quoting DestinJeff:
I picked a bad time to get H1N1 ... this sucks. last time we had to evacuate (Dennis), my son had Rotavirus.


My 9yr old has swin also and it is really nasty. The fevers are high.
Here in Cozumel, MX we've got some occasional gusts ~30mph. The data buoy 42056 has been registering 30knts gusts. Thankfully we didn't receive the forecasted 90mph winds, nobody boarded up. I think we're in the clear.
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOOKS Like twins....the collision of these to lows with the cold front and the pressure gradient created by the high that will be East of this all is in my opinion being completely underplayed.......i hope i'm wrong.


I am in complete agreement with this statement. That front was pretty wicked in the PNW with gale force winds and when added to the mix of whats already in the GOM, I shiver at the possibility of the tornado activity this could spawn from S GA all the way down the peninsula.
It might be temporary but I see a slow down with IDA in the last hour.
Highlands County, smack dab in the middle of the state of Florida. The pressure gradient alone has us under 15mph sustained winds with gusts in the past 20 minutes of 25+mph. We are going to see strong winds regardless of how close Ida's approach. We could use a bit of rain with it though. Not much rain here for the past 45 days.
Quoting portcharlotte:
It might be temporary but I see a slow down with IDA in the last hour.
storms right on course.NHC has handled this nicely.there will not be much more deviation from forecast.48 hour forecast are typcally spot on.
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT , FL, United States
(KEYW) 24-33N 81-46W 5M
Conditions at

2009.11.08 1453 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT) gusting to 33 MPH (29 KT)
I see a wobble or meandering by IDA at present..Anyone else concur or possibly I am wrong...


No Movement?
.
Quoting stormy2008:
"THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA."


This may be an interesting thing to watch as well.


similar setup to the cliche perfect storm of Oct 91
What do you all think us folks in Lower Alabama well around Mobile should expect? I am asking cause we have a boat repair shop on chickasabogue creek and I didn't know if the water will be coming up or what? Just wondering and need a little help.

sheri
IDA is gonna stall and the front will push her back, not sure where JMO
There's no doubt..there's a change in the motion..I definitely see some slight east leaning..The overall satellitie image is ne/sw an indication sometimes of a northeast moving system down the road...
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
IDA is gonna stall and the front will push her back, not sure where JMO


I certainly give you credit for seeing this as I do...This storm is not moving northwest or Northnorthwest at 10 or 12 mph..There will be changes unless NHC does not want to admit it
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