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Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2009

Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.

The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.

The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.


Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.




Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.

Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

just went outside and got blasted in the face by a wind gust and the rain IS FREEZING COLD. man that water is cold.
We are getting our heaviest rains now along w/ some pretty strong gusts....

Water has risen some, it will rise more as we near high tide.

I dread seeing the damage along the Holiday Isle shoreline in Destin... the erosion was already taking its toll on homes & a couple of condo buildings this morning.
From Ship Island:

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
just went outside and got blasted in the face by a wind gust and the rain IS FREEZING COLD. man that water is cold.


lol..thinking I may need my winter attire tomorrow!..lol
Stay safe BF :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Quoting GPTGUY:


Yea picking up too here in Lyman...pressure on my weather station dropping fast and winds really picking up


What is your wind direction??
What Ida has taught me.

1. November can and does form Cat 2 Hurricanes in the Western Atlantic Basin

2.A untapped Seasonal GOM SST ,can and will support a Cat 2 and possibly Higher Cane in the Month of November.

3.The NHC continues to improve in Track forecasts,but struggles still with the Science and art of intensity.

4.Systems can and often do defy the best forecasts available,

5.Be thankful its not August nor September too, and folks arent battling a 9 Hour Eyewall night passage.
508. drj27
Quoting Beachfoxx:
We are getting our heaviest rains now along w/ some pretty strong gusts....

Water has risen some, it will rise more as we near high tide.

I dread seeing the damage along the Holiday Isle shoreline in Destin... the erosion was already taking its toll on homes & a couple of condo buildings this morning.
yea hopefully the island want flood i have to work tommorow
501.

Yes it is. It's out of the E here now. Got blasted when I went out the front door.


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
25.1N/60.2W

just putting it out there
So true! LOL

We are getting gusts of about 20mph now... downpouring, heavy rainfall.
Quoting Patrap:
WHat Ida has taught me.
1. November can and does form Cat 2 Hurricanes in the Western Atlantic Basin

2.A untapped Seasonal GOM SST ,can and will support a CAt 2 and possibly Higher Cane.

3.The NHC continues to improve in Track forecasts,but struggles still with the Science and art of intensity.

4.Sustems can and often do defy the best forecasts available,

5.Be thankful its not August nor September to and folks arent battling a 9 Hour Eyewall nightpassage.
Quoting jipmg:
it must be very cold in new orleans, that strong wind plus temps into the mid 60s..


wind chill from a tropical system
whoda thunk it
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
we are getting everything in waves...get about 15 minutes of downpour and strong winds then backs off for a few then comes back again.


From my limited experience with tropical storms, that's the way it usually works. The rain bands bring the winds to surface.

I don't know why, but it sure seems to happen that way.
Thank you Orca!
516. VTG
It just continues to pile in in SW AL and Pcola area. When will it end?

It has been raining non-stop for over 12 hours in Pensacola. Rain at my house is over 3 inches, and still climbing.
new MAX wind speed on shore. Keesler AFB recored 42kts.
Quoting PcolaDan:


wind chill from a tropical system
whoda thunk it


I just got back from the point on lake Pontchartrain and it was extremely cold gusts up to 31 mph on the hand held anemometer also

NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

should get a vortex message shortly
Quoting Patrap:
What Ida has taught me.

1. November can and does form Cat 2 Hurricanes in the Western Atlantic Basin

2.A untapped Seasonal GOM SST ,can and will support a Cat 2 and possibly Higher Cane in the Month of November.

3.The NHC continues to improve in Track forecasts,but struggles still with the Science and art of intensity.

4.Systems can and often do defy the best forecasts available,

5.Be thankful its not August nor September too, and folks arent battling a 9 Hour Eyewall night passage.


pretty much the same here. NHC is not used to hurricanes in the gulf in nov as there have not bee many.
Quoting VTG:
It just continues to pile in in SW AL and Pcola area. When will it end?

It has been raining non-stop for over 12 hours in Pensacola. Rain at my house is over 3 inches, and still climbing.


here is latest storm totals anmin loop piling up fast

Quoting VTG:
It just continues to pile in in SW AL and Pcola area. When will it end?

It has been raining non-stop for over 12 hours in Pensacola. Rain at my house is over 3 inches, and still climbing.


The downpours may be over but there is still more coming...

Radar link
That big cut-off storm in the central Atlantic seems to be organizing quite nicely, I wonder if it will be designated an Invest?
FLOOD WARNING issued for Escambia, Lower Baldwin, and Lower Esambia Counties.
the sound of the breeze is relaxing. i love the weather we are getting form this. its gusty no rain and cool. beautiful night. hope all that are getting the brunt are ok. thank god this storm weakened as it approached land. good night all
downpours havent stopped here.
Not much rain at the moment but wind really picking up in Pascagoula, MS. Reporting gusts at 45 and I believe it after going outside. Things are really getting blown around.
I think the center of circulation is currently at about 30.0, 89.0....... Any opinions or good current graphics?

Diamondhead, MS.
Paloma should have tought you that last year! She was a category 4 in November, twice the strength of miss Ida here.

Regardless, Ida's the one of the two to make it into the gulf.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
downpours havent stopped here.


I was referring to Pcola, but its actually holding its own here now as well. Looks like those bands might be coming ashore for a while longer for both of us. Be safe...
Massive buckets of rain... and some wind... in intermittent cycles of about 2-3 minutes

near Perdido Key FL
Quoting msjayhawk:
I think the center of circulation is currently at about 30.0, 89.0....... Any opinions or good current graphics?

Diamondhead, MS.

that is too far north. HH pointing at 29N.
At the risk of sounding like a reed....i think whatever perfect happens with this complicated scenario, the worst is yet to come with:
1. Inland flooding in Georgia
2. Tail whipping through SFLA
3. Ida's "perfect" remnants re-intensifying, and moving up the east coast as an express, hitting NYC-Cape Cod.
.
.
For the immediate future, my thoughts are with those along the north gulf coast. Doesn't look too bad at the moment, but y'all be safe.
One more Ida lesson:
A naked swirl (by satellite cloud tops and radar anyway) can still have a tight core of winds. And that core might be in the middle of the dearth of data we have from the MS river and the Mississippi sound and be so small it goes undetected by surface obs.

I was off on that. I can take it.

You guys east of Bay St. Louis still have your max pending.
More rain in Tally light, and more on the way. Likely more tommorow. Gonna be a ugly day.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
25.1N/60.2W

just putting it out there


does that really have a chance? last STS prospect crashed and burned.
recond has to be looking for something because they just fly a weird pattern.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
new MAX wind speed on shore. Keesler AFB recored 42kts.


From what direction?
Quoting msjayhawk:


From what direction?


020
dang where is the vortex message...I need to go to sleep.
I posted yesterday afternoon that Ida was leaving a little present behind does anybody see anything around Cuba to back that up.
543. VTG
I was referring to Pcola, but its actually holding its own here now as well. Looks like those bands might be coming ashore for a while longer for both of us. Be safe...

It looks like the rain to the south has weakened, but it redevelops right at shore. Rainfall now approaching 3.5 inches...
Quoting CosmicEvents:
At the risk of sounding like a reed....i think whatever perfect happens with this complicated scenario, the worst is yet to come with:
1. Inland flooding in Georgia
2. Tail whipping through SFLA
3. Ida's "perfect" remnants re-intensifying, and moving up the east coast as an express, hitting NYC-Cape Cod.
.
.
For the immediate future, my thoughts are with those along the north gulf coast. Doesn't look too bad at the moment, but y'all be safe.


1. Possible
2. Likely
3. Less Likely
4. Yes...be safe



AOI/XX/XL
MARK
24.8N/60.1W
Ida actually appears to be getting more impressive. NWS there in Mobile talked about baroclinic forcing will keep Ida holding on to intensity quite well...

Those rains are really piling up there appears to be a psuedo-warm front right near the coast, expect dramatic wind increase once that heads inland
The only storm I went through, that reminds me of what some of you are feeling is Hurricane Irene of 1999. Did not get too windy maybe 50-55mph winds at the most gusts were around 60-65mph for a span of 20 mins. The rest was minimal ts winds. However, IT RAINED a LOT. The only time I saw my neighboorhood flood more than it did in Irene was a imfamous No name storm of Oct 2000 which turned out to be TS Leslie.
Its incredible how many storms I went through in 18 years of life. Two majors (Andrew, Wilma) some famous minimal hurricanes (Irene, Katrina) and of course the close calls with Frances and Jeanne. Fay is one i'll remember for two things, making land fall so far south and dropping 5 inches of rain in 2 hours 500 miles north of me.
Checking in from Milton,florida. Pretty much just windy and rainy. feels good outside too. We have got alot of rain here today i can say tho.
And you are no Reed. BTW, I'm surprised he's not on this morning.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
24.8N/60.1W


Naaa phoenix erm i mean Joaquin, won't be "rapping" up into said name anytime soon.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I posted yesterday afternoon that Ida was leaving a little present behind does anybody see anything around Cuba to back that up.
eventually that will become a cold front
Just got back from a ride. The water has come up a good bit since last ride. The boat ramp piers are under water. The water is half way up in the parking lot. The gulf water is now rolling over the seawall and pushing into Beach Blvd with the waves. The waves are not big, but the water is higher. There is still not south wind here. I might take one more ride before the water gets too high to go down Beach Blvd.
ok i give up waiting for the vortex message...I have to get some sleep. Winds died off a bit here. Im sure they will come back though. Good luck all.
Quoting PascMississippi:
Just got back from a ride. The water has come up a good bit since last ride. The boat ramp piers are under water. The water is half way up in the parking lot. The gulf water is now rolling over the seawall and pushing into Beach Blvd with the waves. The waves are not big, but the water is higher. There is still not south wind here. I might take one more ride before the water gets too high to go down Beach Blvd.

Still not high tide yet...makes me wonder about biloxi because Back Bay was very high when I left work at 330.
919

URNT12 KNHC 100505

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009

A. 10/04:44:40Z

B. 29 deg 22 min N

088 deg 46 min W

C. 850 mb 1410 m

D. 39 kt

E. 111 deg 28 nm

F. 196 deg 48 kt

G. 121 deg 54 nm

H. 998 mb

I. 15 C / 1522 m

J. 21 C / 1524 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0811A IDA OB 14

MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 02:26:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 05:01:00Z

;
556. VTG
here is latest storm totals anmin loop piling up fast


Rainfall totals seem to be highest around Foley. It wouldn't surprise me to see a flash flood warning there.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Still not high tide yet...makes me wonder about biloxi because Back Bay was very high when I left work at 330.


My mother-in-law lives on Back Bay. She was fine as of a couple of hours ago. There new house is about 10 feet in the air.
Alright ladies and gentlemen had to have a couple of beer brats before night time so I bid you ado, watch out for those commies down south I think they commandeered one of our weather control satellites, keep a look at down south, if you are ok with what's going on up north , take care.
HWind analysis updated (includes HH obs up to close to now), zoomed in version:


Highest wind not QC'ed out, 58 knots NW of center. And, yes, peak winds inside the Chandeleurs.

No radar and little of significance on satellite near her center nor at the peak winds. No static surface wind platform anywhere near peak winds...

Your winds with a south component will not be on shore for a while yet.


lastest storm totals as of 512z
Highest winds still off shore... I just looked at the buoy data on Google earth... it would appear to be U/S.
Problem is, the H*Wind analysis is showing this station in the 29 knot range as of about an hour ago. Anemometer height aside, that just doesn't seem right to me. Closer to 35 - 40 for sustained at 10 meters an hour ago...

Just went to waters edge at 3mile bridge Pensacola. Winds are calmer but rain is heavier. I'm thinking it's the "calm" before the real winds.
684

TCCA23 KNHC 100020

STDWCA



SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0015 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009





SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...TS IDA



MAX RAINFALL

DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST

----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------

10/0015 UTC 29.2N 88.5W 355/15 5.6 IN 3.7 IN





LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...



DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER

------------- --------------- ---------------

0 TO 1 DEGREE 2.0 TO 3.3 IN 2.5 TO 3.7 IN

1 TO 2 DEGREE 1.8 TO 2.4 IN 0.9 TO 2.4 IN

2 TO 3 DEGREE 1.4 TO 2.0 IN 0.5 TO 1.1 IN

3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.9 TO 2.1 IN 0.0 TO 0.5 IN





...LEGEND...



SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM

(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL

DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)



DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME

COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT



LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY

POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS

OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE



MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM

IN DEGREES AND KNOTS



MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF

RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED

ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART



LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR

THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE



RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR

DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE

SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)

INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM

(1 IN = 25.4 MM)



FORECASTER NELSON



NNNN
Wow... I have to say, I'm impressed with the winds we're getting... the rain has backed off temporarily, but the winds seem like they're just getting started! Our trees are really getting whipped around.

We've had a couple of power dips, but we still have our power. I have friends north of Pensacola that have no power right now.

Kids are in bed with glow sticks... still not asleep, though. LOL
568. VTG
Winds rapidly increasing in Pensacola- they went from less than 10mph 30 minutes ago... to some gusts likely approaching TS strength now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And you are no Reed. BTW, I'm surprised he's not on this morning.


You mean Reed "Perfect Storm of the Century" Zone ... hasn't been on. Yea ... NO SURPRISE there! Put him and JFV in a room together.
east hills, Pensacola, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 7 sec ago
68.3 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the South
Wind Gust: 12.7 mph
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.0 miles

quickly travelling line moving across coastoal areas now .. very interesting as it's moving in a way not similar to the areas around it .. and as I'm typing I hear gusts picking up greatly here in NW mobile ... I'll be back .. partay time =D
572. IKE
...IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Quoting IKE:
...IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
According to the NHC discussion, the location does not matter since the rain is way north of the center and the winds are widespread.
574. VTG
east hills, Pensacola, Florida (PWS)

The report seems inaccurate. Note that the peak gust is only 15mph for the entire day.
Time: 05:36:30Z
Coordinates: 29.4333N 88.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.6 mb (~ 24.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.1 mb (~ 29.47 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 230° at 17 knots (From the SW at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.2°C (~ 68.4°F)
Dew Pt: 7.7°C (~ 45.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting mossyhead:
According to the NHC discussion, the location does not matter since the rain is way north of the center and the winds are widespread.


Correct...Just look at the satellite image at post 566.
577. VTG
Current Conditions
Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 54 sec ago
70 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 40 mph

Gusts at TS strength, as expected.

Quoting VTG:
east hills, Pensacola, Florida (PWS)

The report seems inaccurate. Note that the peak gust is only 15mph for the entire day.


PWS readings are sometimes suspect. Didn't make sense to me either.
579. VTG
PWS readings are sometimes suspect. Didn't make sense to me either.

I don't really like using them, but they are good when official stations aren't reporting (or when they send in bad information).
...and the sprinklers just came on! XD Like we need more!
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
582. IKE
21 days or 504 hours from right now and the tropical season is finished.
Quoting IKE:
...IDA SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
12:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb


there is no way that nakes swirl is 60mph anymore. it's going to just stall there and die.
584. IKE
This un-naked swirl is heading to sleep-land.

Good night and good morning cyberspace.:)
And how long to the big day? Link
When was the last time a T.S. was about to make a CONUS landfall....and most bloggers just turned in for the night?
Winds gusting higher in Freeport, Florida. The highest winds so far. Small branches being knocked down out of some trees hitting roof. Light rain. Cool temps. Does not feel tropical outside.
good morning guys
589. xcool
rain alot
Missed everything Matt. All those affected by Ida went to bed.
Getting higher wind gusts in central and south Florida.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Missed everything Matt. All those affected by Ida went to bed.


well I was banned :P
594. 789
Quoting tornadodude:
good morning guys
dude good morning
What did you do now Matt?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
When was the last time a T.S. was about to make a CONUS landfall....and most bloggers just turned in for the night?


because its not making a landfall! The tropical rodation itself stalled near the mouth of mississippii... sorryt kinda drunk and full of crow
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What did you do now Matt?


LOL

off topic post (?) ha I dunno why I was banned, but it's whatever
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Getting higher wind gusts in central and south Florida.

east central FL 10min wind avg 3mph from SSE
Lol Winter...
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Nov 10, 12:54 am EST

Fair

56 °F
(13 °C)
Humidity: 72 %
Wind Speed: N 5 MPH
Barometer: 30.30" (1025.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 47 °F (8 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
603. xcool
bad bad matt haha
Short Wave IR 2

Quoting winter123:


fine it merged. but this "perfect storm 2" peoople were publicisizng is f******ing sad and there's barely minimal TS force winds being reported, and not even tornados. That's what I was saying. Doomcasters were dead wrong on this one.


True! Amen to that! Well said.
Winds were gusting to 30 earlier in PBC.
Quoting winter123:


fine it merged. but this "perfect storm 2" peoople were publicisizng is f******ing sad and there's barely minimal TS force winds being reported, and not even tornados. That's what I was saying. Doomcasters were dead wrong on this one.
edit:
'

Amen! SELA dodged the bullet again! Sometimes I just wonder how much luck we have left.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Winds were gusting to 30 earlier in PBC.

GWPB: are your gusts out of the SSE also?
610. 789
not a severe cane people without power floode d homes a rescue person dead ?
Quoting SevereHurricane:
'

Amen! SELA dodged the bullet again! Sometimes I just wonder how much luck we have left.


French people in the 1700's:
"OHAI! Lets colonize this place thats 100 feet under sea level because we're so smart" They should be glad they survived this long. One day the doomcasters and CMC model will be right. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but one day...
I'm in Long Beach, MS, and with my door open looking at the beach. Can't see much ;) Maybe if we got some lightning it would help. So far just some good wind & lots & lots of rain. Looks like it's centered just off the north end of Chandeleur Island about now.
Quoting winter123:


French people in the 1700's:
"OHAI! Lets colonize this place thats 100 feet under sea level because we're so smart" They should be glad they survived this long. One day the doomcasters and CMC model will be right. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but one day...

"Perfect storm two" was possible I guess.. Never likely. Glad you admit your error in forecasting, for that I give you credit. Seems to be exactly what I expected though maybe a tad under 5-10mph or so. Could still tighten up a bit though. ( Not Ida, the gradient ) for the time being, gusts to 25 here in NW mobile ..
We're starting another round of rain. Really we've gotten less than it seems like. The wind, though... we've got sustained winds near 15mph gusting over 30. Thankfully, we still have power, but with the winds continuing for an extended time, our power dips could turn into a power outage. I have a friend on the other side of P'cola who has lost her power, and, it appears, the power for her cell as well.
615. 789
Quoting Patrap:
hey right hook now!
Okay, kids are asleep, I'm out! If I can sleep through Ivan, I can sleep through Ida.

G'nite, y'all!
Quoting LeopardMoth:
Okay, kids are asleep, I'm out! If I can sleep through Ivan, I can sleep through Ida.

G'nite, y'all!


G'nite!
Just came in from Pensacola Beach. Entire west end is completely underwater, I'd guess anywhere from 2-5 feet depending on where you're at. I'd say the road to the Fort is probably toast again...waves were breaking over it starting around 9 or 10. Winds were very strong earlier...approaching hurricane force in gusts, no doubt. Mildly surprised the bridges never closed, to my knowledge. Real mess out there tonight.
well, I'm out all, have a good rest of the night
Winds here is east central FL have been from the SSE since before midnight avg. 3mph clear sky. I think that will change with in the next hour. I see a line moving in from the SW with some spotty precip. Is it still possible for IDA or her remnants to come down the east coast of FL?
Quoting winter123:


French people in the 1700's:
"OHAI! Lets colonize this place thats 100 feet under sea level because we're so smart" They should be glad they survived this long. One day the doomcasters and CMC model will be right. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but one day...


Actually, if you read a little history, you'd know that the French built the city on the highest point of land available anywhere near the mouth of the Mississippi. Urban sprawl has extended the city down into the lower areas. Not the city founders' fault more people and businesses want to live there than can be supported on the high ground.
GBguy,

I am near Gulf breeze and I respectfully disagree with your assessment. Having been through all the hurricanes in this area since 1985, I can equivatly state Winds have been no where near hurricane strength. Maybe one 50 MPH gust. Otherwise 30-35 MPH.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

624. drj27
Good night all from ft.walton beach nothing going on here everyone have a great night and stay safe
G'nite drj27
Quoting gnshpdude:
GBguy,

I am near Gulf breeze and I respectfully disagree with your assessment. Having been through all the hurricanes in this area since 1985, I can equivatly state Winds have been no where near hurricane strength. Maybe one 50 MPH gust. Otherwise 30-35 MPH.


The winds diminish substantially when you go back into Gulf Breeze. I was going back and forth between the two for a good portion of the day, and noticed the rather large difference every time I went across the bridge.
Quoting Patrap:
IDA Steering Layer 700-850mb - West Atlantic - Latest Available

Thanks Pat for the link. I guess the remnants are going through GA and out to sea.
I need rain here at home badly. I guess I was wishing.
Trusting all is as well in Uptown as it is in Midcity, Patrap? :)
Just would like to note, in about the last hour or so, you can see the initiation of NNE and NE movement:
Link
Hey - they just showed a shot of my old street in Bay St. Louis. They said it was Waveland but never mind. It was a brief clip about streets flooding. There was a yellow house, and then a blueish two story house next to it, both on stilts.

I bring this up because if they rerun the clip, take a close look at the roofs on those two houses. They are "hurricane roofs". I know there is another name for them but that's what I've always called them.

Both of those houses were still standing after Katrina. In fact, only four houses were left standing on my street after the storm and ALL of them had this type of roof. When I finally get the chance to build my dream home, guess what kind of roof I plan to put on! :-)
I THINK i SEE AN EYE! (sorry it's 3am but I refuse to go to bed now of all times.. sleep deprivation is my enemy atm =/)
After Stalling near the mouth of Mississippi IDA is now moving ENE still over water toward Panama City....SHE IS STILL OVER WATER
She is moving South of the NHC points and is not going inland......Shear is hammering IDA
IDA after stalling sure is making a very sharp right hand turn.......this is going to fool some peeps tomorrow morning......HOPE you all remember my track i posted and most said that won't happen......LOL
636. unf97
Good morning everyone.

The exposed center of what ls left of IDA is located just offshore about 45 miles S of Mobile. That exposed center should come onshore in a few hours. The system continues to slow down in forward motion, which definitely signals that the long awaited right turn (NE to E/NE) will commence shortly. IDA's remnants will prove to be a significant rain event across AL, GA, SC and NC over the next couple of days. Nasty weather as the extratropical system is expected to emerge off the GA/SC by late Wednesday into Thursday.

I am hoping that IDA's remnants will not stall because of the flooding potential in those already satuated areas, especially in Atlanta area. Once all this mess shifts to the Atlantic, a much more drier and seasonable cool air mass will evade the SE US behind the exratropical system beginning on Thursday.

Have a great day everyone.
Quoting TampaSpin:
IDA after stalling sure is making a very sharp right hand turn.......this is going to fool some peeps tomorrow morning......HOPE you all remember my track i posted and most said that won't happen......LOL


Not quite sure why it matters at this point. The eye, if you can even call it that anymore, is more exposed than Pamela Anderson's chest right now. Shear has taken its toll on Ida and she'll be nothing more than just another Gulf Coast thunderstorm before too much longer. Its not like this thing is going to hug the coastline and pick up strength.
Quoting TampaSpin:


kid go back to beddie bye......LOL.....guess you don't live along a beach.


I live close enough to the beach. I'm in the FL panhandle.
Quoting TampaSpin:


kid go back to beddie bye......LOL.....guess you don't live along a beach.

No need to be so condescending...
Quoting HurricaneFCast:

No need to be so condescending...


Glad you noticed that too.
FCast, how much longer do you have left for your degree? I've been considering going into the met program at FSU after I wrap-up my undergrad. I don't know though....it took me 16 years to finish that one. Not sure I'm ready to fight another 16 for grad school. Haha!
As IDA becomes a more organzied XtraTropical system from the transition......she is stuck between to High pressure systems amid the cold front. The Pressure gradient will now begin to tighten and the stronger winds along the Florida Panhandle may be yet to come as the Wind field begins to expand.

For those interested here is a good loop.
I think we can now add:

PerfectStormDisasterCaster

to the "caster" list.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I think we can now add:

PerfectStormDisasterCaster

to the "caster" list.


LOL.....good one!
Quoting LACajunKid:
FCast, how much longer do you have left for your degree? I've been considering going into the met program at FSU after I wrap-up my undergrad. I don't know though....it took me 16 years to finish that one. Not sure I'm ready to fight another 16 for grad school. Haha!
I've got 2 years left. Haha, yeah well if you've already taken your general courses you should only have to take about 68 additional credits for a Bachelor's in Meteorology. The credit total on all four years for my degree is, I believe, around 132 or so credits, but I'm also Majoring in Mathematics & Physics, so I'd Imagine if you've got more than 60 credits completed it wouldn't take you that long for a Bachelor's. Never give up! :D
Amazing that some of the early morning folks are already hidden to show......amazing.



Nice pic of IDA's COC on JSL just south and offshore of the Mississippi/Alabama line.
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
I've got 2 years left. Haha, yeah well if you've already taken your general courses you should only have to take about 68 additional credits for a Bachelor's in Meteorology. The credit total on all four years for my degree is, I believe, around 132 or so credits, but I'm also Majoring in Mathematics & Physics, so I'd Imagine if you've got more than 60 credits completed it wouldn't take you that long for a Bachelor's. Never give up! :D


Actually, I'm 12 hours away from finally completing a bachelor's in emergency management. Thought about going for either a masters or PhD in meteorology. Seems to be a good combination of degrees in my situation.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number SIX
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB03-2009
11:30 AM IST November 10 2009
=======================================

SUBJECT: Deep Depression over Arabian Sea

Cyclone alert: Yellow message.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB03-2009 over east central Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lays centered over eastcentral Arabian Sea near 13.5N 70.5E, about 470 km west-northwest of Mangalore, 420 km southwest of Goa and 670 km south-southwest of Mumbai.

The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a northerly direction for some more time and then north-northeastwards and cross south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coast between Mahuva and Dahanu by early hours on November 12th

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

06 HRS: 14.5N 70.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 15.5N 70.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
18 HRS: 17.0N 71.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
42 HRS: 21.5N 72.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
66 HRS: 25.5N 74.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)


Cyclone ARB 03-2009 satellite imagery
hope every character made it through ida good morning
654. MahFL
Lol Ida is stil offshore. Dr M was wrong.
Panama City Beach Damage Report--1 uprooted banana plant in backyard, scattered small branches down. Just like a summer thunderstorm.
rain stopped in southern MS but it is still pretty windy...going to be a fun drive to work in a few minutes.
Quoting Cyberdium:
Panama City Beach Damage Report--1 uprooted banana plant in backyard, scattered small branches down. Just like a summer thunderstorm.


How are the winds and water there right now, Cyber? I've got family down in PCB, but way too early to call and check on them.
Good morning...
NHC forecasters did a good job on this difficult scenario. Thank God this storm didnt happen earlier this year. There was a brief period of low shear in the Carib and Gulf
in which this storm could have thrived producing a much more dangerous result.
Quoting LACajunKid:


Actually, I'm 12 hours away from finally completing a bachelor's in emergency management. Thought about going for either a masters or PhD in meteorology. Seems to be a good combination of degrees in my situation

You may apply with FEMA,,,,,up to $125k yearly ,plus travels accomodations ,,,,,
Quoting Cyberdium:
Panama City Beach Damage Report--1 uprooted banana plant in backyard, scattered small branches down. Just like a summer thunderstorm.

didn't see any damage but heard there was a downed power line on middle beach road sometime around 10 last night.
AL 98 2009111006 BEST 0 241N 603W 30 1009 DB
good morning everybody
i hate it after a storm when ya gotta try and dodge obstacles to get to work
if i was over there i would feed yall some of this neeses country sausage and gravy with homemade buttermilk biscuits and a cup of steaming folgers

and from the radar i just looked at i might get a soaking from miss ida
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 98 2009111006 BEST 0 241N 603W 30 1009 DB


Hmmmm..interesting!
Knock Knock, Who's there? IDA, Ida who?
Ida been here earlier but I missed my turn:
Raining at the moment, occasional gust to 20-25.
Quoting cubanheat:
Quoting LACajunKid:


Actually, I'm 12 hours away from finally completing a bachelor's in emergency management. Thought about going for either a masters or PhD in meteorology. Seems to be a good combination of degrees in my situation

You may apply with FEMA,,,,,up to $125k yearly ,plus travels accomodations ,,,,,


I actually considered going to work for FEMA, but decided against it. Too much bureaucracy. I'm going to either stay on the state or local level with their respective OEP offices. The money with FEMA is nice, but the headaches aren't. LOL
670. IKE
Schools in Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walton counties will be closed Tuesday and afterschool activities are cancelled because of potential hazards posed by Tropical Storm Ida.....

from the FWB Daily News. And the rain has moved on out...lol.

That should make parents happy.
Quoting Cyberdium:
Raining at the moment, occasional gust to 20-25.


Family lives on Thomas Rd., right across the road from the beach. Any problems with rising water in that area that you know of?
Quoting LACajunKid:


I actually considered going to work for FEMA, but decided against it. Too much bureaucracy. I'm going to either stay on the state or local level with their respective OEP offices. The money with FEMA is nice, but the headaches aren't. LOL
they aint hiring
673. IKE
...IDA OVER MOBILE BAY...
6:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 30.3°N 88.0°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL AROUND 540
AM CST...1140 UTC...ON DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
675. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

Quoting leftovers:
they aint hiring


I'm guessing you're talking about FEMA since I know for a fact that our local OEP office is hiring. Not sure about the state.
Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 2:55 AM EST on November 10, 2009


... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday
morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of central Georgia... east central Georgia... north
central Georgia... northeast Georgia... northwest Georgia and west
central Georgia.

* Through Wednesday morning

* deep tropical moisture has spread across the southeast due to
Tropical Storm Ida. This will continue as the remnants of Ida
move east across the Florida Panhandle today. Widespread heavy
rainfall totaling 3 to 5 inches... with locally higher amounts up
to 8 inches... are possible over much of north and central
Georgia by tonight and early Wednesday.

* Creeks and streams will respond to the rain with fairly rapid
rises expected... especially in the mountains and across the
Atlanta Metro area. Minor to moderate flooding is likely on some
small to medium sized creeks and rivers... and may eventually
spread to the larger river systems. With autumn in full
swing... the trees across north and central Georgia have been
dropping their leaves. This could lead to storm drains becoming
clogged... resulting in street flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Now is the time to take any necessary precautions to protect life
and property... before any flooding begins.

You should monitor NOAA Weather Radio or commercial radio and
television for the latest information on this developing weather
situation... along with any possible warnings that may be issued.







Wind Advisory
Statement as of 2:55 AM EST on November 10, 2009


... Wind Advisory in effect from 6 am this morning to 7 am EST
Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 6 am this morning to 7 am EST
Wednesday for all of north and central Georgia.

Tropical Storm Ida will make landfall this morning along the
central Gulf Coast... and the remnants of the storm will move east
across the Florida Panhandle. An area of strong high pressure over
the western Atlantic will help to increase the pressure
gradient... and thus the winds... over the southeast. Winds of 15
to 25 mph... with gusts up to 35 mph will be possible through the
day. Additionally... as widespread rain continues today... it may
not take very strong winds for trees to begin to fall.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 20 to 35 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.





Good morning Ike. Did Ida affect you in any way? It seems to have killed this blog, lol.
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Good morning Ike. Did Ida affect you in any way? It seems to have killed this blog, lol.


LOL - I guess the main posters lost power?

Still windy in South Florida, although no rain. Is someone trying to make up for lost time during the "peak" of the season, since there is now a persistent yellow circle in the Atlnatic?
680. MahFL
It's not the peak of the season now. And it's only been there a couple of days.
679. LOL...i thought the blog seemed less windy this morning! :)
682. IKE
Quoting tropicofcancer:
Good morning Ike. Did Ida affect you in any way? It seems to have killed this blog, lol.


Got a couple of inches of rain off of it. Small branches down in my yard. Their easily burnable when it dries out.

Gusts to maybe 35-40 mph. That's it.

Now the cooler, drier weather will move in starting tonight.:)

Nice!
683. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
679. LOL...i thought the blog seemed less windy this morning! :)


No more...it's turning NE and not moving north, crowd. That eliminates 95% of the arguing on here.

497 hours...
21 minutes...and it's over.

2 weeks...2 days and turkey and dressing awaits my belly.
LOL @ 683. how appropriate :)

just one question, though...why does everyone like turkey so much? i know it's traditional, but it's not like the bird is really that great (i know, i know...this is heresy!). my mother-in-law ruined us with prime rib one Thanksgiving...never wanted turkey since! LOL
Did not get much rain in florida, hope the front brings some. You need to try my mothers turkey, and nothing better than a good turkey sanwich with salt, pepper, and mayo!
Quoting pearlandaggie:
LOL @ 683. how appropriate :)

just one question, though...why does everyone like turkey so much? i know it's traditional, but it's not like the bird is really that great (i know, i know...this is heresy!). my mother-in-law ruined us with prime rib one Thanksgiving...never wanted turkey since! LOL


Couldn't agree more!!! I have been doing pull pork for the last few years and people love it!
Just hoping for cooler temps here in SFL for the feast. I am sure Dakster will agree.
688. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
LOL @ 683. how appropriate :)

just one question, though...why does everyone like turkey so much? i know it's traditional, but it's not like the bird is really that great (i know, i know...this is heresy!). my mother-in-law ruined us with prime rib one Thanksgiving...never wanted turkey since! LOL


I love the dark turkey meat. It tastes good.

Throw in some dressing, with cranberry sauce...omg...soooo good.
689. IKE
Quoting tropicofcancer:


Couldn't agree more!!! I have been doing pull pork for the last few years and people love it!
Just hoping for cooler temps here in SFL for the feast. I am sure Dakster will agree.


Just looking at the latest ECMWF run. Looks like late next week....a cool down...maybe down to central and possibly south Florida.
Quoting IKE:


Just looking at the latest ECMWF run. Looks like late next week....a cool down...maybe down to central and possibly south Florida.



Bring it on, just bring it with rain in tow. We need one or two soakers before dry season sets in.
I'm haveing a hard time seeing what is left of Ida To turn east.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.
692. IKE
Tampa forecasting rain today and tonight....70% chances.

Their forecast for Thursday...

Thursday
Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph near the coast and 10 to 15 mph inland.
Quoting IKE:


No more...it's turning NE and not moving north, crowd. That eliminates 95% of the arguing on here.

497 hours...
21 minutes...and it's over.

2 weeks...2 days and turkey and dressing awaits my belly.


As strange as this season has been, including the mid season transition from La Nina to El Nino... it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the season spill over into December as it did a few years back. Just keep an eye on the placement of the jet stream over the next seven weeks... Mother nature is full of surprises.
688. i will agree that i prefer the dark meat to the white turkey meat :)
695. IKE
Quoting biff4ugo:
I'm haveing a hard time seeing what is left of Ida To turn east.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.


70% today...80% tonight...60% Wednesday for Jacksonville,FL.
696. P451
Quoting winter123:


fine it merged. but this "perfect storm 2" peoople were publicisizng is f******ing sad and there's barely minimal TS force winds being reported, and not even tornados. That's what I was saying. Doomcasters were dead wrong on this one.
edit:


Now, now, no back tracking. Of interest it was you who suggested we were saying it was going to be a Cat 7 superstorm. Nobody made that assumption. We suggested it could merge, and we suggested it could turn out to be a strong extratropical storm with a large wind field of 60mph winds.

Now, what happened was: Ida maintained her tropical strength. Had she gone extratropical yesterday morning you'd have that scenario played out. 2) The GOM hybrid never really got cooking so the energy it injected wasn't as strong as it could have been. Yet, without it, Ida never makes that extra burst it did as it neared the coastline.

So you are downplaying what transpired a little too much - and doing so from a standpoint that was much higher than anyone actually suggested.

In that, the crow is most certainly yours. You may dump it in the trash if you choose.
convection well displaced from the COC...

698. IKE
Quoting fishinfool33825:


As strange as this season has been, including the mid season transition from La Nina to El Nino... it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the season spill over into December as it did a few years back. Just keep an eye on the placement of the jet stream over the next seven weeks... Mother nature is full of surprises.


Agree..I thought the season was over a month ago.

Wrong.
699. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
688. i will agree that i prefer the dark meat to the white turkey meat :)


White meat is too dry.
702. P451
Quoting pearlandaggie:
convection well displaced from the COC...



Is it possible that the convection continues northward then does what some models suggested - move NE through the south east and emerge off the NC coastline and energize a Nor'Easter ---- while the decoupled lower level circulation meanders to the east as other models project?

For they seem to be quite disconnected right now.

Just got online so I haven't checked much yet.

I like the forecast.
Thanks IKE.
g'morning, looks like panama city and tallahassee are getting some more of IDA this morning.
Link
702. i suppose that's possible, though it doesn't seem that likely to occur. but, i'm just a dumb engineer, so how would i know :)
707. IKE
Latest GFS mergers 98L with the convection from Ida off of the east coast of the USA. Potent system....
708. Relix
98L is giving us in PR heavy rains =P
707. i could see the moisture from Ida feeding into 98L, but do you think that the circulations would merge? seems like low pressure systems tend not to do that...seems that the stronger one usually robs energy from the weaker one. or am i just plain wrong? :)
710. IKE


I am sure Honduras, Nicaragua do not want to see anything come of this.
anyway, now for another grueling day!
have a good one all.
712. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
707. i could see the moisture from Ida feeding into 98L, but do you think that the circulations would merge? seems like low pressure systems tend not to do that...seems that the stronger one usually robs energy from the weaker one. or am i just plain wrong? :)


Think it will be 98L's circulation. StormW might have more info.
712. i would tend to concur.
Well Hubby just made it to the shop and it has water all in it. He said it not really deep but there is water in it and that makes for a mess. When it starts going done time to get the squeegees out and pressure washers. Can we say fun. LOL

Sheri
713. who? your feet don't fit a limb! LOL :)
715. sorry to hear that....that sux.
718. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Who?






I'll have an update forecast late this morning.


LOL....
719. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Well Hubby just made it to the shop and it has water all in it. He said it not really deep but there is water in it and that makes for a mess. When it starts going done time to get the squeegees out and pressure washers. Can we say fun. LOL

Sheri


Agree...sorry to hear that.
Quoting IKE:


Just looking at the latest ECMWF run. Looks like late next week....a cool down...maybe down to central and possibly south Florida.


I brine my turkey then inject it with mojo criollo (cuban marinade) and then smoke it for about 8-10 hours (depending on size) and it is SOOO flavorful and juicy everybody raves about it. Pretty cool way to make a turkey.

Ida is thumbing her nose at us! We can't BUY rain this year!!



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
722. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I brine my turkey then inject it with mojo criollo (cuban marinade) and then smoke it for about 8-10 hours (depending on size) and it is SOOO flavorful and juicy everybody raves about it. Pretty cool way to make a turkey.

Ida is thumbing her nose at us! We can't BUY rain this year!!


Sounds pretty good. When's dinner?

I think Ida is about to be RIP-ed to a remnant low...

Anyone here interested in volunteer rain data reporting? We need more volunteers to join CoCoRaHs.org. Our data is used by weather forecasters, government agencies, universities and many more entities. It's simple. Put up a sanctioned rain gage and report the contents once a day. If you are interested, please visit CoCoRaHs.org to join. Thanks.
Any questions, please email me at sandhockey@yahoo.com
I believe NE Florida will feel some of the wind and rain this evening and tomorrow....maybe sooner

HAPPY VETERAN'S DAY tomorrow. Let's not forget those who have served and are serving in so many ways.....

What do you all think of the Low NE of PR???
It's been an interesting couple of days but it's over now and time to get on with life. See ya'll next May. Happy Thanksgiving, Merry Christmas and all in between. Take care and enjoy.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
LOL @ 683. how appropriate :)

just one question, though...why
does everyone like turkey so much? i know it's traditional, but it's
not like the bird is really that great (i know, i know...this is
heresy!). my mother-in-law ruined us with prime rib one
Thanksgiving...never wanted turkey since! LOL


I want a cooked longhorn for Thanks Giving
Hey did everyone leave? I refresh 4 times and nothing. I guess ev1 taking a much need rest. Thank you ev1 for your input on this storm. She was a strange one.

Sheri
728. P451
Quoting pearlandaggie:
702. i suppose that's possible, though it doesn't seem that likely to occur. but, i'm just a dumb engineer, so how would i know :)


Hmm, this might answer my question: 5-Day QPF Totals



Ida's canopy up to the NE...while Ida's decoupled center meanders easterly.

Quoting TexInsAgent:


I want a cooked longhorn for Thanks Giving

Whoop!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Bring it on, just bring it with rain in tow. We need one or two soakers before dry season sets in.


Correction: We are in the driest months now, it gets wetter again as the winter arrives, sure not like July, but not dry enough to be "dry season" which then returns in the spring however.

Also, we are in moderate El Nino, should get tons of rain this winter, as well as some impressive severe weather events...



Then again I live on the west coast in North central Florida, if you live in south Florida, maybe winter is drought for you too...


Quoting biff4ugo:
I'm haveing a hard time seeing what is left of Ida To turn east.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.
726. i wouldn't hold my breath! LOL


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
24.8N/60.3W
hey ike i se yer still here so ya must a fared ok
Once we get Ida's moisture out of the way,should be a very quiet period for the US.
Looks like actual landfall of a circulation center is about right now in Baldwin County...assuming these obs can be trusted.


(Full size, click!)
Quoting peejodo:

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.


I hope we get more than the sprinkle we got last night! :)
Quoting weatherg8r:


I hope we get more than the sprinkle we got last night! :)

We got nothing in Covington, straight north of NOLA. And that is fine by me. Still drying out from Sept/Oct.


ida bye bye ida
741. jipmg
TD ida is moving ENE, I say TD because there are 0 reports of sustained winds above 30mph
Quoting peejodo:

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.


Well actually, on average October and November is the dry season, tha average is only 2.00 inches both months, but then it bumps up to 3.50 to 4.50 a month average for december through Febuary. hen it goes downhill till second half of may again.

however, it was even a lot drier then normal for october.

But im not complaining, over here on the west coast of Florida. My year to date is 56.99, this is the first time in 4 years we have actually had around average rain year to date.... lol and we only had about 4.00 up untill may... so about 50 to 52 fell just between May and september...
Quoting jipmg:
TD ida is moving ENE, I say TD because there are 0 reports of sustained winds above 30mph
nuttin but low pressure now some rains
Quoting biff4ugo:
I'm haveing a hard time seeing what is left of Ida To turn east.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.
Experimental COAMPS finally ran a model on Ida but you can use it to take a look at its depection of 98L.
746. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey ike i se yer still here so ya must a fared ok


Yeah...came out okay. Never lost electricity.
I sure am glad the Tropical Season was over September 1st
Quoting NEwxguy:
Once we get Ida's moisture out of the way,should be a very quiet period for the US.


Hey my New Englander friend....YOU might be getting one heck of a snow storm from IDA
749. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
I sure am glad the Tropical Season was over September 1st


LOL
I thought central FL would get some rain from IDA.....???


I posted this on my update on 10-8 at 10:28am



At least it fell within my windwow....course my window was large enough...LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Hey my New Englander friend....YOU might be getting one heck of a snow storm from IDA


I have my doubts,High pressure is going to hang tough,and don't see any cold air the cards as of right now,but you keep on trying to get us a snowstorm.
Quoting IKE:


Yeah...came out okay. Never lost electricity.
Hey Ike, just a lot of heavy showers last night. There are going to be a lot of upset people looking at the weather now. The counties officials can't win either way. If they do not cancel they get hollered at and if they do and nothing happens, they get hollered at.
754. MahFL
Looks to me Ida is moving just south of east atm.
It looks like we have a triple eye......LOL
750. You probably will.....just not until later tonight and tomorrow..
757. MahFL
if she moves back over the water can she re energise ?
759. jipmg
Quoting MahFL:
Looks to me Ida is moving just south of east atm.


surely moving East now..
Granted there is still the tail of the comma draped over the area that could cause some bad weather, but I'm suprised at how little the Tallahassee area got from Ida.

I wouldn't even call the rain we got moderate, and the wind barely shook the leaves on the trees.
Quoting TexInsAgent:


I want a cooked longhorn for Thanks Giving


You must be an Aggie
I have a big problem with the steering flow maps .......wow are they inaccurate or what....could they have changed this much in 3 hrs ....i guess.....NO reason looking at them that IDA should be moving in that direction. Although looking at visible Water vapor one can see why

763. jipmg
wth? Is IDA making a cold front? I mean there is a string of T storms forming and temps in the 60S behind it while in front they are in the upper 70s/low 80s
764. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
Hey Ike, just a lot of heavy showers last night. There are going to be a lot of upset people looking at the weather now. The counties officials can't win either way. If they do not cancel they get hollered at and if they do and nothing happens, they get hollered at.


Agree...suns coming out at times, here now.

70.7 degrees.
I was just looking out the window and the wind is blowing pretty nice. It just knocked the neighbors garbage can over in the road, I'm fixing to run out and put it on there porch. I really didn't think it would be this windy right know.

Sheri
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD DAYS 3 AND 4...A HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO FOR WINDS AND TIDES.


Short Range Graphics Loop


Preliminary Extended Forecast Graphics
767. MahFL
Jipmg, er thats an extratropical system for you.
I'ts like a normal low but with extra moisture.
Quoting Floodman:


You must be an Aggie


Hey Flood, How ya doing?

Sheri
IDA missed her Point by NHC by about 75miles to the south of her next point..and is still half on land and half on water.

Still say the worst weather for the state of Flordia is yet to come today. Don't let your guards down too much...IDA has a mighty large butt, that appears to be getting larger...
770. jipmg
We now officially have TD ida


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
772. beell
At least a small warm sector should be available this early this afternoon across NE FL, coastal GA, and SC to take advantage of low level shear/helicity.

Basically two boundaries. The confluence zone extending S down the W coast of FL and a warm front which is really the northward moving moisture on the E side of Ida meeting up with the cooler, drier continental air moving south around the W side of Ida as the surface ridge builds in behind her. Marginal instability. But 30-40 knots of shear and adequate 0-3km helicity probably should be watched. SPC mentions the northern half of FL in their Day 1 Outlook.

Photobucket



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD...LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE BC/WA
CST. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL AS REMNANT CIRCULATION PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING
DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM.

...NERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW T.S. IDA BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ABSORBED WITHIN COMPLEX OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOW PHASING
OVER THE LWR MS VLY. BAND OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SSW FROM IDA
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS MORNING
AS WLY COMPONENT TO MID LVL FLOW INCREASES WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE...LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER REGION.

THE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NERN GULF AND PARTS OF NRN/WRN FL TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE
FEATURE GRADUALLY ASSUMES COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LVL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BAND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...
WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
DISCRETE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE CONFLUENCE ZONE
. BUT LOW LVL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO POSE
A THREAT FOR LOW LVL SHOWER/STORM ROTATION
...GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION
. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO...AND/OR A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE FL CST...FROM THE
CSTL BEND AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...SSE TO THE TPA AREA BY EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/10/2009
773. IKE
...IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...
9:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 30.6°N 87.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 30.6N 87.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.9N 86.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/1200Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED

Well Ike we should count our blessings. It dang sure could have been worse
Morning all.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Hey Flood, How ya doing?

Sheri


I'm alright...certaily doing better than you and your hubby...glad to hear you guys are alright
Quoting rareaire:
Morning all.


Howdy, rare...
779. jipmg
IDA is no more according to the NHC..
780. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Well Ike we should count our blessings. It dang sure could have been worse


Amen to that.

And I hope that is the final nail in the coffin for the gulf coast in 2009 for tropical systems.
Good morning all. Glad to see everyone back and no worse for the wear. :) Y'all flung a hungry on me with all that turkey talk. I LOVE
turkey! Only get it once a year though. :( And I have to hold the ham I cook hostage til the switch is made. Lol. Mom can cook the heck out of a turkey. The only thing I can cook is ham. So I have a little bargaining power. Hee hee.
Quoting Floodman:


I'm alright...certaily doing better than you and your hubby...glad to hear you guys are alright


Thanks yeah where just waiting for the water to start going down so we can start cleaning, hopefully we don't get sick with this cool air and getting wet. Just all part of the deal i guess.

Sheri
About to head to the dentist thought I'd stop in a check on everyone. Be back later on. Glad to hear your ok Sheri. Tampa iis it still on track to fullfill my forecast. Flood you know where we are if you need us. Ttyl
I agree Ike. And if I don't see you guys much before next season I want to take the time now to wish everyone a very Safe and Happy Holiday season


The 3 headed little devil.....
once over the gulf stream look for reegegeration gordon back in 94 pulsed into a hurricane
Surf's up

http://www.islandempress.com/webcam/

For scale, there are couple of people walking on the beach
788. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I agree Ike. And if I don't see you guys much before next season I want to take the time now to wish everyone a very Safe and Happy Holiday season


And to you and your family too.

Don't be a stranger in the off-season. Winter weather is as interesting as the tropics to me.
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Well Ike we should count our blessings. It dang sure could have been worse


Yep, good thing this was not September. Could have been really bad....coulda woulda....tho
Is to me as well but is sometimes my busy time for my buisness. And I have not found a good hidin' spot from my wife to get out of work.....lol
Quoting IKE:


And to you and your family too.

Don't be a stranger in the off-season. Winter weather is as interesting as the tropics to me.

Yep,I couldn't agree more,and I think this year will be an interesting winter season.
Quoting rareaire:
About to head to the dentist thought I'd stop in a check on everyone. Be back later on. Glad to hear your ok Sheri. Tampa iis it still on track to fullfill my forecast. Flood you know where we are if you need us. Ttyl


Thank you, you take care. Have a good day.

sheri
Quoting StormW:
Howdy!


Morning Storm
I must warn you people..... we are getting waaaaay to friendly and 'off topic' here.
I can feel dr no's blood pressure beginning to boil!!!.
797. IKE
NEW BLOG!!!!


Quoting 2COOL:
Anyone see any roof work out of this...or enough damage for ins. Adjusters? Thanks!


I doubt it.


IDA has made her big right turn.....may not go over land for a while.
799. 2COOL
Long time lurker. Can't believe I picked that handle but I am in MN! Ha!
Planning to leave for Pensacola soon, my old home.
800. 2COOL
Thanks Ike! I've been following your comments real close and some others. You are real appreciated, all of you! I've been continually following this forum for days, and I wonder how many others are in the background. We depend on this site. It gives us a close up and helps us through this. Thanks so much to all of you from us lurkers!