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Icy Weekend for Central Plains; La Niña’s Days Are Numbered

By: Bob Henson 5:33 PM GMT on January 13, 2017

Near-record levels of moisture for January will be flowing toward the Central Plains this weekend atop a paper-thin cold air mass at the surface--a classic set-up for widespread freezing rain. Ice storm warnings were in place Friday morning along a strip from northwest Oklahoma to southwest Illinois. These warnings indicate that enough freezing rain is expected in the next 12 to 36 hours (typically 1/4” to 1/2”, depending on location) to cause significant problems. Freezing rain advisories for lesser accumulations flanked the south side of the ice-storm-warning belt from the Texas Panhandle all the way to western Virginia, and winter storm warnings for a mix of frozen precipitation extended to the north of the ice storm warning from eastern Colorado to western Illinois. See the WU severe weather page for state-by-state warning roundups.

Ground Zero for the worst icing is likely to run from northwest Oklahoma into western Kansas, where the swath of heavy rain associated with an upper-level low moving through on Saturday night and Sunday will intersect with ground-level temperatures just cold enough for the rain to freeze. Odds are that some parts of the area will experience at least 0.5” of ice accumulation, according to the National Weather Service (see Figure 1). Travel could be quite rough for people heading to Kansas City, MO, for the pro-football playoff game on Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. An ice storm warning is in effect till midnight Sunday night. It appears that temperatures above freezing will sweep north across the city during the day on Sunday, but as with football, timing is everything.


Figure 1. The highest odds for at least 0.5” of freezing rain accumulations this weekend (from 6:00 AM CST Friday, January 13 to 6 AM CST Monday, January 16) are across western and central Kansas, where some areas have a better-than-70% chance. Image credit: NWS Weather Prediction Center.

How long can the surface cold last?
A big limiting factor that could keep this ice storm short of widespread devastation is the steady erosion of the surface cold air mass expected this weekend. There’s little push behind the cold air mass at this point, while southerly winds just above the surface will be intensifying throughout the weekend. Thus, most of the ice-affected areas will transition to milder temperatures by the end of the storm. The rain itself will help warm up the surface air mass by releasing heat as it freezes and by pulling down warmer air from above, especially where it’s raining the hardest. Thunderstorms could develop as far north as Kansas by late Saturday, and there’s even a slight chance of severe weather over parts of west Texas on Sunday, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

Ice storms aren’t uncommon in the central states in midwinter, but the degree of warmth and moisture flowing atop this one is quite unusual. The 06Z Friday run of the NAM model projected that the amount of water in a column above the surface (precipitable water, or PW) will be close to record levels for January in some of the ice-affected areas, especially as the storm shifts to a non-frozen rain event. Here are some of the peak NAM-predicted ranges compared to January records in radiosonde databases that extend back to the mid-20th century:

Amarillo, TX: 0.80” - 0.90” (Jan. record 0.84”)
Dodge City, KS: 0.80” - 0.90” (Jan. record 0.85”)
North Platte, NE: 0.55” - 0.65” (Jan. record 0.65”)
Topeka, KS: 0.90 - 1.00” (Jan. record 1.08”)
Omaha, NE: 0.80” - 0.90” (Jan. record 0.95”)


Figure 2. Winds about a mile above sea level (850 mb) will bring very moist air for midwinter into the Southern and Central Plains this weekend. By 6:00 PM CST Saturday, the amount of precipitable water through the depth of the atmosphere will be 4 to 6 standard deviations above average in the blue-shaded areas. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

The ground is well above freezing across much of Oklahoma, with soil temperatures Friday morning between 35°F and 45°F, so it’s quite possible that icing in central Oklahoma will be more prominent on bridges and overpasses, trees, and power lines than on roads, especially toward the southern parts of the affected areas. The radius of ice accumulation on items such as limbs and power lines is typically about 20% to 40% of the total amount of rain that falls during an ice storm, according to a recent Weather and Forecasting paper by meteorologists Kristopher Sanders and Brian Barjenbruch (NWS/Topeka, KS).

Power outages may affect many thousands of people across the Central Plains this weekend--and these can take days to repair, especially if they’re widespread. Fortunately, the odds of widespread inch-or-more ice accumulations seen in the worst ice storms (see this weather.com roundup for graphic examples) appear to be on the low side. “While this storm will not likely be equivalent to the catastrophic ice events of the past 16 years, it'll be bad enough,” predicts Oklahoma-based meteorologist Jim Ladue.

Warmest Inauguration Day on record? It’s possible
In the wake of the ice storm, westerly Pacific flow will sweep across the nation, bringing a sharp mid-January warm-up to most areas east of the Rockies. Readings of 20°F - 30°F above average will be widespread, with temperatures above 50°F possible as far north as Michigan and New York by next weekend.


Figure 3. As of Friday morning, January 13, 2017, WU’s forecast for Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport is for temperatures in the mid-50s around noon on Friday, January 20.


Presidential inaugurations were held on March 4 from 1793 until 1937, when the date was shifted to January 20 (when those dates fell on Sundays, the inaugurals occurred a day later, as was the case in 2013). Capital Weather Gang notes that, perhaps surprisingly, the highest midday temperature recorded for any inauguration was just 55°F, measured at noon on both March 4, 1913 (Woodrow Wilson) and January 20, 1981 (Ronald Reagan). In records going back to 1872, daily highs in D.C. have been as high as 70°F on January 20 (in 1950) and 82°F on March 4 (in 1983), but since inaugurals happen only every four years, the historical temperature range for these events is quite constricted. WU’s most recent forecast for Washington, D.C., is for a noontime temperature around 56°F on Friday, January 20. There is inherent imprecision in a 7-day temperature forecast, but the basic outlook for a warm inaugural--perhaps the warmest on record, apart from out-of-season swearings-in--appears quite solid.

So long, La Niña
In its latest monthly advisory, issued Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center all but sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. Sea surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño3.4 region have remained in the weak range for La Niña (0.5°C to 1.0°C below the seasonal average), and the subsurface cold relative to average across the equatorial Pacific has almost completely vanished. In a new ENSO Blog entry, NOAA/CPC’s Emily Becker reviews global weather conditions and how they’ve stacked up against La Niña expectations (fairly well, especially for temperature).

Models are close to unanimous in bringing the Niño3.4 region into the neutral range over the next couple of months. There are some model indications of a weak El Niño kicking in by summer 2017. That wouldn’t shock me, given the continued predominance of a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Positive PDOs are associated with a higher frequency of El Niño events, and the PDO has now been in positive territory in each month from January 2014 through December 2016—the first time this has happened across three consecutive calendar years in records that go back to 1900. Even so, NOAA’s Emily Becker isn’t ready to predict a 2017-18 El Niño: “A three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño has only happened once since 1950, in 1963/1964/1965. This doesn’t make it impossible that El Niño could develop, but it means that we aren’t counting on it.”

We’ll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a safe weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Figure 4. One of the worst ice storms in the region’s history struck northeast TX, southeast OK, Arkansas, and northern LA in late December 2000, knocking out power to more than half a million people. J.D. Willhelm took this shot in Fort Smith, Arkansas, the day after Christmas. “If you don’t think people sweat during this kind of weather you should have seen the folks in the house below this tree,” he wrote. “Fortunately the tree survived but many in the area didn’t.” Image credit: wunduerphotographer JDWillhelm.



Winter Weather El Niño La Niña

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the updates..
Meanwhile it keeps on raining here. After having an unusually dry fall here in Tennessee (re: gatlinburg fires), now it is raining or just overall gloomy here and the no end in sight on the forecast. Thankfully, temperatures will be too warm for ice storm conditions...
The weekend forecast for my area (DC-Baltimore) looks like a ton o' fun. Snow, sleet, ice, and freezing rain. Guess I better motivate myself to run today while it isn't a miserable mess and there's a low chance of someone skidding of the road and running me over. :P
Thank You Mr. Henson and a very nice breakdown of the pending icing issues relative to the competing air masses. As to the pending neutral phase for the Enso cycle, it is also pretty evident from the SST charts off of South America into the Pacific..............Have to see how this plays out in the Spring relative to the US tornado season and further downstream when we start the Atlantic hurricane season again in June 2017. Waning El Ninos tend to historically produce the most tornado activity in the Spring, but with neutral conditions, we will have to see where the Conus jet sets up for tornado season (for any given day or week during this period) in terms of the recent research suggesting that available vorticity in the Spring has increased in recent years. Have to see how this plays out in terms of the numbers and strength this year.

%uFFFD%uFFFD %uFFFD
So are we officially in La Nina even though the 5 consecutive 3 month average has yet to be met? Sure hasn't felt like La Nina in CA this year.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!
Hurricane in San Diego County...lol




Monthly Rainfall for just SW of Indian Hills PWS(3/4 Mile W of me)
Thanks for the breakdown Bob. The bit about the PDO got me thinking of the QBO and its recent weirdness, check out the end of the chart on the link. I don't know what connection they have if any but still, interesting times.
"The 06Z Friday run of the NAM model projected that the amount of water in a column above the surface (precipitable water, or PW) will be close to record levels for January in some of the ice-affected areas, especially as the storm shifts to a non-frozen rain event. Here are some of the peak NAM-predicted ranges compared to January records in radiosonde databases that extend back to the mid-20th century:"

Amarillo, TX: 0.80- 0.90(Jan. record 0.84)
Dodge City, KS: 0.80 - 0.90 (Jan. record 0.85)
North Platte, NE: 0.55 - 0.65 (Jan. record 0.65)
Topeka, KS: 0.90 - 1.00 (Jan. record 1.08)
Omaha, NE: 0.80 - 0.90 (Jan. record 0.95)

A warmer more Water Vapor laden Atmosphere by adding CO2 from burning fossil fuels is just what the models predict.


The warming continues,

unabated.



Quoting 5. civEngineer:

So are we officially in La Nina even though the 5 consecutive 3 month average has yet to be met? Sure hasn't felt like La Nina in CA this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


Indeed, we haven't yet met the threshold for considering this stretch of La Nina conditions an "episode", but we should get there handily. We've now had four 3-month periods that qualify as La Nina, and it looks like we'll easily notch the fifth one.

Historical ENSO episodes (1950 - present]
Quoting 5. civEngineer:

So are we officially in La Nina even though the 5 consecutive 3 month average has yet to be met? Sure hasn't felt like La Nina in CA this year.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml


from the link provided in the blog:
In a new ENSO Blog entry, NOAA/CPC’s Emily Becker reviews global weather conditions and how they’ve stacked up against La Niña expectations (fairly well, especially for temperature).

January 2017 ENSO update: Happy New Year!
Forecasters are confident that the November – January period will qualify as continuing the La Niña, but predict that the next period, December – February, will be warmer, and likely end up in neutral territory
Sorry for off-topic...
But at least our national airline is not superstitious.

Earlier today, on Friday the 13th, Finnair flight 666 flew from Copenhagen to HEL with a 13-year-old plane.



Hopefully the airline passengers at least got a smoother ride than cruise ship passengers have had lately :)
Quoting 2. Astrometeor:

Meanwhile it keeps on raining here. After having an unusually dry fall here in Tennessee (re: gatlinburg fires), now it is raining or just overall gloomy here and the no end in sight on the forecast. Thankfully, temperatures will be too warm for ice storm conditions...


1.88" since the new year. Only 4 days with no precipitation according to my CoCoRaHS gauge. Forgot to ask Mother if we got anything yesterday to add to that total.

Next siege of rain for California coming in on a 220 mph jet by the middle of next week.
Storm # 2 is turning into # 3. Had a 4 hour frontal passage yesterday and then what looked like a secondary front that trained numerous showers over and north of San Diego in the overnight hours. Initial front we received .54". From all the showers overnight, received another .64 for a total as of 9am of 1.18". Some kinda nice! Now maybe a few more showers as the ULL goes south and then 4-5 days to dry out before another storm was forecast in (havent checked the 12z models yet) for Wed/Thur/Friday time frame.

NWS San Diego Rainfall totals thru 9am PST

Link
...speaking of getting smacked by an over-laden tree, a Tahoe City woman lost her life yesterday evening.
Tahoe City woman, 43, killed after tree crushes Subaru
If a survey pops up. you can scroll down and click "skip survey".
In Nevada MO. Light rain. 27 degrees, ice forms on car, but road has salt. I should be out f it by Joplin.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 13. elioe:

Sorry for off-topic...
But at least our national airline is not superstitious.

Earlier today, on Friday the 13th, Finnair flight 666 flew from Copenhagen to HEL with a 13-year-old plane.



Hopefully the airline passengers at least got a smoother ride than cruise ship passengers have had lately :)

Was the pilot's name "Damien"?
21. RayT
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-drought-mo nitor-20170112-story.html

good news for California! Drought is not over, but it is significantly better than it was due to some seasonal rains.
Oklahoma Mesonet:
‏@okmesonet

Mesonet Ticker: Ice Wars
http://ticker.mesonet.org/

Stay alert, and may the electricity be with you. #okwx #okmesonet

Positive PDOs are associated with a higher frequency of El Niño events, and the PDO has now been in positive territory in each month from January 2014 through December 2016—the first time this has happened across three consecutive calendar years in records that go back to 1900. Even so, NOAA’s Emily Becker isn’t ready to predict a 2017-18 El Niño: “A three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño has only happened once since 1950, in 1963/1964/1965. This doesn’t make it impossible that El Niño could develop, but it means that we aren’t counting on it.”

I'm reading a book on ENSO and there has been research suggesting that the earth's distance from the sun might have to do with the strength and frequency of ENSO events, linking this to research done of Holocene and interglacial periods of earth. I don't know of a resource that calculates the average distance of the earth and sun in a year and it's average over the course of many years, that would be cool to find.

Idk what's worse, Dr Masters inciting the global warming war on the blog, or giving stormtrackerscott more ammunition to shove the el Nino predictions down our throat. But, regardless of if patrap is going bananas about trump and AGW or if STS is sounding the El Nino alarm, I love all you laides and gents as I have been reading the blog for 8 years even in the down times, and hope each of you, minus the trolls, have an awesome Friday and weekend.
Quoting 20. BayFog:


Was the pilot's name "Damien"?


On that note: 'Exorcist' Author William Peter Blatty Dead at 89
Quoting 7. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Hurricane in San Diego County...lol






And just like hurricanes, not many 'bolts in them

sorry :(
Storm hammering the North sea coast right now:


Zika outbreak "fuelled by" El Nino and climate change
Skeptical Science - January 13, 2017 (re-post from Carbon Brief - December 2016)
The combination of a strong El Nino event and human-caused climate change created optimal conditions for the recent outbreak of the Zika virus in South America, a new study says. (...)
The warm conditions of 2015-16 were "exceptionally conducive" to mosquitoes spreading the disease across the continent, the researchers say, helped by the lack of natural immunity in the South American population.
And their results suggest there is a significant risk of summer outbreaks of Zika in the southeastern states of the US, southern China and southern Europe. (...)
Quoting 13. elioe:

Hopefully the airline passengers at least got a smoother ride than cruise ship passengers have had lately :)

Found a Finnish Estonian news site with two videos from this rough ride across the Baltic Sea when the record wave (as mentioned in the old blog) occured. Coca Cola is running wild:
VIDEO
Quoting 22. Xandra:

Oklahoma Mesonet:
‏@okmesonet

Mesonet Ticker: Ice Wars
http://ticker.mesonet.org/

Stay alert, and may the electricity be with you. #okwx #okmesonet




So, I just went outside, seems to be picking up a bit . . . ;)



32. vis0
could the cold push be underestimated maybe instead of a fire-hose affect (as with the N. Carolina and neighboring states during Joaquin's period) we'll see a Zamboni affect (ice resurfacer) where the southern stream keeps introducing moisture northern stream reintroduces cold (more than expected) zilly to read but dangerous to humanity as in blackouts, don't drive over moving water nor frozen water both takes away your ability to drive as some say your car becomes a canoe without a paddle.

(for "entertainment" news groups get cams on polar bear areas of local zoos)
This earlier image shows both fronts/waves that came through Soo Cal. The second wave pretty much was a very slow mover and trained showers over San Diego County and points north of there and is currently in the desert off to the east. Although the initial front was larger we received more rain from the 2nd wave. Forecasters/Models now saying a chance of more showers as the parent ULL now off Pt Conception goes south and east into Baja and causes wraparound showers into Sat. Less than 1/4" or less at most locations. All in all quite a good storm but am glad for the 4-5 day dryout period before some serious storms are forecast in. Im over 11" since October 1 with the rainfall at my place and more forecast in. Im still of the thought grab it while it's there.....cuz the spigot can close quickly in Soo Cal!


An upper level low pressure system over Point Conception will slowly move southeast today into Baja Mexico sparking scattered rain and mountain snow showers. Additional rainfall accumulations will be heaviest in San Diego County. Snow levels have lowered to about 5,700 feet in San Diego County to about 4,500 feet in northern zones with a few additional inches of accumulation possible.
Quoting 27. EmsiNasklug:

Storm hammering the North sea coast right now ...

Update on the situation before the next high tide (full moon!) is setting in:
Tidal surge threat as snow and heavy winds grip UK
BBC, 30 minutes ago

Report and video of tidal flooding in Whitby (Yorkshire): Link
Live blog from Essex: Link
UK: Flood warning information service: Link
# 31 Good luck with it and stay safe!
Quoting 23. win1gamegiantsplease:

Positive PDOs are associated with a higher frequency of El Niño events, and the PDO has now been in positive territory in each month from January 2014 through December 2016—the first time this has happened across three consecutive calendar years in records that go back to 1900. Even so, NOAA’s Emily Becker isn’t ready to predict a 2017-18 El Niño: “A three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño has only happened once since 1950, in 1963/1964/1965. This doesn’t make it impossible that El Niño could develop, but it means that we aren’t counting on it.”

I'm reading a book on ENSO and there has been research suggesting that the earth's distance from the sun might have to do with the strength and frequency of ENSO events, linking this to research done of Holocene and interglacial periods of earth. I don't know of a resource that calculates the average distance of the earth and sun in a year and it's average over the course of many years, that would be cool to find.


The average distance doesn't change to any significant extent, or the year would be getting longer or shorter (depending on the change). What does change is the elipiticity of the Earth's orbit, influenced by gravitational attraction of the other planets, mainly Jupiter and Saturn with some help from Venus. So the furthest distance and closest approach do change slowly, contributing to conditions that can initiate a continental glacial episode, but the year remains 365.24 days long.
Quoting 31. daddyjames:

So, I just went outside, seems to be picking up a bit . . .

How this frozen fox became a grim winter warning
The Local (Germany), Jan 13, 2017
A hunter says he hopes the unfortunate fate of a fox who froze in Germany's river Danube will act as a stark "warning" to anyone considering walking on frozen waterways.
Hunter Franz Stehle from Fridingen, Baden-Wurttemberg told DPA on Friday that he discovered the fox at the beginning of the year by the Danube. He assumes the animal was walking on ice over the river when it broke through, drowning the fox and then freezing in an ice block. ...

More see link above.
West Coast snowflakes knocking at your door.

http://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/201 7/01/californiastorms.jpg?w=443
Quoting 35. HurricaneHunterJoe:

# 31 Good luck with it and stay safe!


Things are pretty quiet here, as was expected for today. Only a very thin glaze t best. Hopefully that'll remain the same same tonight and tomorrow when it is supposed to pick up.
Just had our 1st batch of sleet (for about 30 sec) and very light rain in S C IL, N of I-70, most is still S of it though. Up to 31, dew pt still only 26, pressure is now starting to come down, 29.57" from 29.65 before noon. ENE winds 5-10, but do show a 21.5 gust. Still have us in 1/4 , hoping for less. SW of StL in Ozarks has been covered in pink all morning, moving into IL along I-64 & below I-70. Radar seems to show it starting to gain a more northerly component to its mainly W to E movement. Lets hear it for full moon Fri the 13th!
Quoting 37. barbamz:


How this frozen fox became a grim winter warning
The Local (Germany), Jan 13, 2017
A hunter says he hopes the unfortunate fate of a fox who froze in Germany's river Danube will act as a stark "warning" to anyone considering walking on frozen waterways.
Hunter Franz Stehle from Fridingen, Baden-W%uFFFDrttemberg told DPA on Friday that he discovered the fox at the beginning of the year by the Danube. He assumes the animal was walking on ice over the river when it broke through, drowning the fox and then freezing in an ice block. ...

More see link above.


LOL - I put the link in the ";)"

Although, your link does not seem to be working at the moment. Fixed!
Also the Earth is closest to the Sun in January...in its orbital period.




Quoting 30. barbamz:


Found a Finnish news site with two videos from this rough ride across the Baltic Sea when the record wave (as mentioned in the old blog) occured. Coca Cola is running wild:
VIDEO: Läänemerel tormi kätte jäänud laeval sõidavad ringi rasked joogiautomaadid


Good videos. But the site is in Estonian. ;)

Both Finnish daily tabloids have as a frontpage story, that the horse of a renowned talk show host died in the storm. (One of those two aboard Silja Symphony)

Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southwest IN...southern IL...southern/central MO...southeast KS...OK

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 131628Z - 132230Z

SUMMARY...An extensive corridor of freezing-rain potential will continue through the day from portions of OK to parts of the lower OH Valley.

DISCUSSION...A persistent plume of elevated warm advection and moisture transport will continue to foster an extensive corridor of precipitation potential through the day -- from portions of OK to parts of the lower OH Valley. With the 12Z Norman OK, Springfield MO, and Lamont OK soundings sampling maximum elevated warm-layer temperatures around 9C-12C, complete melting of descending hydrometeors will occur prior to their contact with the subfreezing surface layer. Meanwhile, subfreezing surface temperatures from parts of southwest OK to southwest IN will be reinforced by continued cold advection within the surface layer -- reflected by modest pressure rises on the order of 0.5-2.0 mb per 2 hours. As a result, the risk for freezing rain will continue through the day, with freezing-rain rates around 0.02-0.08 in/hour -- locally higher.

The greatest coverage and intensity of freezing rain should remain concentrated within a corridor from far northeast OK and southeast KS east-northeastward through parts of south-central MO and into southwest IL. This is where (1) isentropic ascent aloft should remain strongest, and (2) generating convective elements from the southwest will likely reach maturation stages while congealing. Furthermore, marginal (though non-zero) elevated buoyancy -- rooted within the elevated warm layer -- was sampled by the aforementioned soundings. This will offer some convective enhancement to freezing-rain rates, along with continued lightning potential accompanying the heaviest freezing rain. Slight northward spread of this precipitation shield may occur through the day, in tandem with the motion of the warm-advection zone.

Eastward from the greatest coverage/intensity corridor into southwest IN, weaker ascent should tend to mitigate overall freezing-rain intensity to some extent. However, the influx of precipitation generated upstream, atop sub-freezing wet-bulb surface temperatures, suggests light freezing rain will be possible.

Areas well southwestward into parts of north-central, central, and southwest OK will be a region of development of convective elements (as indicated by recent mosaic radar loops). Ascent -- albeit relatively more modest -- should be sufficient for widely scattered coverage of freezing rain showers through the day. The influx of moderate midlevel lapse rates (sampled by upstream AMA/MAF soundings) suggests that some convective enhancement will accompany this activity. This should yield brief instances of light to occasionally moderate freezing rain through the day.

..Cohen.. 01/13/2017
Quoting 44. Barefootontherocks:


Areas well southwestward into parts of north-central, central, and southwest OK will be a region of development of convective elements (as indicated by recent mosaic radar loops). Ascent -- albeit relatively more modest -- should be sufficient for widely scattered coverage of freezing rain showers through the day. The influx of moderate midlevel lapse rates (sampled by upstream AMA/MAF soundings) suggests that some convective enhancement will accompany this activity. This should yield brief instances of light to occasionally moderate freezing rain through the day.

..Cohen.. 01/13/2017



Well thanks for crushing my hopes (post 39. daddyjames) with a dose of reality ;)

Although, MO/SoIL seems as if they'll get the worst of this today.
Quoting 41. daddyjames:

LOL - I put the link in the ";)"
Although, your link does not seem to be working at the moment.

Oh, sorry, daddy. Didn't detect your link :-( Fixed my post.
The wife and I are torn between retiring in Boone, N. Carolina, or Tromso, Norway.


I want to be above the heat.

It is worse here every Summer.



Quoting 47. barbamz:


Oh, sorry, daddy. Didn't detect your link :-( Fixed my post.

\
LOL - be surprised if anyone did . . . .
Quoting 43. elioe:

Good videos. But the site is in Estonian. ;)

Sigh, lol. Fixed this post as well, but then the Estonian ran wild, so I had to shorten the link :-)
Post-Dispatch has an ice update for StL, pics of some pretty good glazing in the city, down S in Farmington had 3/16" already (started there before dawn). Noticed our dew pt ticked up to 27, radar shows round 2 approaching, nothing sticking yet . (knocks on wood)

44) that squiggly purple line is blocking the view of my county, except the northern panhandle, I'm just W of the eastern panhandle (that's covered by said line) :)
12 hour WV loop shows both waves of rain that came thru Soo Cal. First one is now in the middle of Arizona and the second still over California partially into the desert away from the coast and mountains. The ULL is just west of San Diego. Looking at radar a few showers will be in my neck of the woods soon, coming from the south on the east side of the ULL.





Quoting 34. barbamz:


Update on the situation before the next high tide (full moon!) is setting in:
Tidal surge threat as snow and heavy winds grip UK
BBC, 30 minutes ago

Report and video of tidal flooding in Whitby (Yorkshire): Link


They've been trying to plan some better defences for a while. They only have that one bit, where the road looked like a river (and some guy sweeping it?! LOL) that's directly exposed to the sea- at the top of that road, and a pretty high seawall at that. The rest is an enclosed harbour system, but that's mainly for the river, than protection from the sea it seemed. There's only that bit around the harbour that's at low level, the rest goes up onto the hills. But that harbour bordering area, is the main center of town, which is quite a tourist spot, so why they're trying to get to grips on it. It's a really cute place! One of the places I photographed and researched for my seawall project last year at Uni.

We had quite a lot of sleet late last night, was like a rough sheet of ice on the ground, was at least an inch. I got off work a bit early, so driving home at 3am instead of 4am, and just enough grip being hardly any other vehicles, so didn't get melted and then re-freeze more evenly. Though were patches of black ice, but I just avoid any black patches all together. I just drove home in 2nd gear and 20mph tops the whole way! It's all gone now thankfully, looks like it may have rained in the morning. Makes me glad we don't tend to get that freezing rain here! Rarely cold enough for that on the west coast of the lower UK.
Wind has been nothing major, just a decent storm.

Take care everyone!
Quoting 48. Patrap:

The wife and I are torn between retiring in Boone, N. Carolina, or Tromso, Norway.


I want to be above the heat.

It is worse here every Summer.






My buddy in Naples FL just loves Boone NC.......He has nothing but good things to say about the place. He drives up there several times a year and does the camping thing. He talks about Boone and another place in Utah and I think those are his final 2 choices.
I am south of the freeze line, about an hour north of Fayetteville AR. The trees have between an 1/8 and 3/16 inch of ice. Nothing on the ground, and the roads are wet with no ice. It should get interesting tonight, but I will be south of it as in Bentonville AR.

Cheers
Qazulight
Coastal flooding/storm surge in Scarborough, N Yorkshire (UK) this evening.
Click picture to access video on Twitter:

Live updates - ITV.com.
Quoting 38. iceagecoming:

West Coast snowflakes knocking at your door.

http://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/201 7/01/californiastorms.jpg?w=443

This occurred on the road to Alpine Meadows ski area. The hillside to the right of the road is avalanche prone in fat snow events such as this, so the ski patrol will set charges to trigger the avalanches while the road is temporarily closed. The snow is then cleared out, and the road re-opened. Stupid people have chosen to build houses across the road, and this scene is a common occurence on this particular stretch of road. Note: If the ski patrol did not trigger regular avalanches, the natural ones would likely take out some of the houses.
Quoting 57. 999Ai2016:

Coastal flooding/storm surge in Scarborough, N Yorkshire (UK) this evening.
Click picture to access video on Twitter:

Live updates - ITV.com.



That bit of Scarborough doesn't even have a seawall at all. It's just a road at sea level, open to the beach. Mainly the amusements and some cafes, most the rest of Scarborough, including the town center, is high on the cliffs. Gorgeous town! On the northern side of the town, North Beach, is facing the beach, but on a seawall. Just a Sealife center and a holiday park near it I think, but reckon with this storm, could cause flooding on that side..but nothing like that part of town! Nothing to stop it coming in. I thought it was weird to have all those amusements down there to be honest.
Quoting 3. Xyrus2000:

The weekend forecast for my area (DC-Baltimore) looks like a ton o' fun. Snow, sleet, ice, and freezing rain. Guess I better motivate myself to run today while it isn't a miserable mess and there's a low chance of someone skidding of the road and running me over. :P


Or slipping and pulling a muscle/tendon or breaking something or.. or..

Warm ground will mitigate road problems for me, I think but I'm in College Park and it will be much worse to the north.
Quoting 48. Patrap:

The wife and I are torn between retiring in Boone, N. Carolina, or Tromso, Norway.


I want to be above the heat.

It is worse here every Summer.






You could go join Xulonn in Panama. :P Oh...no heat? :/ Antarctica?
58) At least they have a board and helmet, question is, any escape route near the roof?

Glad you got thru the ice Quaz.
Quoting 59. mitthbevnuruodo:

That bit of Scarborough doesn't even have a seawall at all. ...

Sure it doesn't, Mitt ;-)

Ask him to find me an acre of land,
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme,
Between the salt water and the sea strand,
For then he'll be a true love of mine.

Scarborough Fair
Lyrics
Quoting 48. Patrap:

The wife and I are torn between retiring in Boone, N. Carolina, or Tromso, Norway.


I want to be above the heat.

It is worse here every Summer.






I worry about the second stage of retirement at 75+ where I need significant medical care and really am becoming frail (currently not there yet at 58). I've always liked Minneapolis where my grandparents are from but the coldest climate I ever lived in was State College Pa (undergraduate Meteorology study at PSU) and that's just not brutally cold so I have no frame of reference for how much worse it would be in MN.

I really also do want to get out of the mind destroying soul sucking heat.
Quoting 61. Astrometeor:



You could go join Xulonn in Panama. :P Oh...no heat? :/ Antarctica?


He could build on the Larsen B ice shelf and in the future he will have the world's largest houseboat. :)
Quoting 37. barbamz:


How this frozen fox became a grim winter warning
The Local (Germany), Jan 13, 2017
A hunter says he hopes the unfortunate fate of a fox who froze in Germany's river Danube will act as a stark "warning" to anyone considering walking on frozen waterways.
Hunter Franz Stehle from Fridingen, Baden-Wurttemberg told DPA on Friday that he discovered the fox at the beginning of the year by the Danube. He assumes the animal was walking on ice over the river when it broke through, drowning the fox and then freezing in an ice block. ...

More see link above.


Anyone with dogs should be very careful near bodies of thinly iced water. I worry about my Labs near the local pond if they see a deer on the other side and the ice is ~1 inch thick and they pull away from my wife. I'm strong enough to keep them on leash.
Quoting 55. HurricaneHunterJoe:



My buddy in Naples FL just loves Boone NC.......He has nothing but good things to say about the place. He drives up there several times a year and does the camping thing. He talks about Boone and another place in Utah and I think those are his final 2 choices.


If it weren't for medical care and a desire to stay close to mentally stimulating friends I'd like Western MD.
Quoting 64. georgevandenberghe:



I worry about the second stage of retirement at 75 where I need significant medical care and really am becoming frail (currently not there yet at 58). I've always liked Minneapolis where my grandparents are from but the coldest climate I ever lived in was State College Pa (undergraduate Meteorology study at PSU) and that's just not brutally cold so I have no frame of reference for how much worse it would be in MN.

I really also do want to get out of the mind destroying soul sucking heat.



As a USMC Veteran that does play into it as well....as I get free VA Healthcare for life.

I turn 57 Sunday.

Thats a lot of flying to Germany for my Care, so Boone, where we honeymooned ,back in 90..is the mo likely choice.

Looks like round 2 may just go N, nothing going on when poked head out. Still 31, but dew pt up another 3 to 30. Pressure still holding at 30.57, winds still around 5, but now just NE.

Quoting 64. georgevandenberghe:



I worry about the second stage of retirement at 75+ where I need significant medical care and really am becoming frail (currently not there yet at 58). I've always liked Minneapolis where my grandparents are from but the coldest climate I ever lived in was State College Pa (undergraduate Meteorology study at PSU) and that's just not brutally cold so I have no frame of reference for how much worse it would be in MN.

I really also do want to get out of the mind destroying soul sucking heat.



If you live in downtown Minneapolis or St. Paul you can use the Skyway System, although Mpls has a much larger one something like ten miles long when counting all blocks included.

On the weather front fairly calm here. A nice and welcome warm up is on the way after a low of -36f (windchills below -50f) last night. Temps may get near 30 above next week.
Quoting 68. Patrap:



As a USMC Veteran that does play into it as well....as I get free VA Healthcare for life.

I turn 57 Sunday.

Thats a lot of flying to Germany for my Care, so Boone, where we honeymooned ,back in 90..is the mo likely choice.



Nice picture. Nice place.

Sent you one of them WuMail thingies.
Quoting 68. Patrap:



As a USMC Veteran that does play into it as well....as I get free VA Healthcare for life.

I turn 57 Sunday.

Thats a lot of flying to Germany for my Care, so Boone, where we honeymooned ,back in 90..is the mo likely choice.




Happy Birthday!
Quoting 71. Misanthroptimist:


Nice picture. Nice place.

Sent you one of them WuMail thingies.



Thankie much S1H2BtR,


Here are the most recent ice effect radius shots from the RAMMB site; nasty looking out there:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/go es-west_goes-east.asp



Quoting 74. Patrap:

Thankie much S1H2BtR,





I have always resented that he stole my look. And he keeps the money!


We have a GFS model far out stating we might have another early storm around January 28th.

CMC shows something around January 23rd.

Happy upcoming B'day Pat! Having a little further discussion w/ Mother this weekend, will let you know!

Rnd 2 not much either, so far so good!
Quoting 68. Patrap:

Thats a lot of flying to Germany for my Care, so Boone, where we honeymooned ,back in 90..is the mo likely choice.

Well, this is a bit beyond my capacity of understanding. Had to google "Boone" plus "Germany". Result: You want to go to that Boone because of its German restaurants to enjoy some Schnitzel as health care? It's Boone, NC? :-)

Anyway, looking at the current airmass pic from Europe you'll have hard time to detect bad windstorm Egon anymore. Instead, a mighty trough/low has formed in the western/central Mediterranean which should bring a heavy load of winter weather to the folks down there, currently much snow and rain especially to the Balkans:

Speaking of ice, good news for Greenland.



Mixed/good news from the Eastern coast of England in respect to high tide flooding. Next hour is critical:
BBC live blog.

Edit: The latest from this site:
Predicted storm surge averted after wind change
Posted at 0:06
Places along the East Coast have escaped flooding after the wind changed the predicted combination of high tides and the surge, the Environment Agency says.
Quoting 63. barbamz:


Sure it doesn't, Mitt ;-)

Ask him to find me an acre of land,
Parsley, sage, rosemary and thyme,
Between the salt water and the sea strand,
For then he’ll be a true love of mine.

Scarborough Fair


Hey Barm,

Is the cold snap effecting you at all? Last I saw they have attributed 60+ deaths to it so far. Never good.
Good afternoon. Its almost 80 degrees here in Austin. Last week we had windchill values down to around 5 degrees. La Nina, El Nino pssh. More like muy loco.
Quoting 61. Astrometeor:



You could go join Xulonn in Panama. :P Oh...no heat? :/ Antarctica?
Xulonn and I both have the best -- moderate temps (low about 65, high about 80) all year, no AC needed, nor heat. My utility bills are about $30 electric and $7 water and that's pretty much it. A $15 bottle of propane lets me cook for about 6 months. But it does rain. :-)
Everyone have a safe weekend and hoping for the best in terms of icing and potential power outages for our folks in Conus impacted by this ice storm. In terms of my own retirement plans, and having spent the Christmas Holidays in bitter cold and snow in New England, my Wife and I plan to stay right here in North Florida upon retirement; the house will be paid off and we will have enough pension benefits to run the AC in the Summer.

See Yall Next Week.
Quoting 82. VAbeachhurricanes:

Hey Barm,
Is the cold snap effecting you at all? Last I saw they have attributed 60 deaths to it so far. Never good.

Sure, it's bad (thanks for asking). But not so much in central Germany where temps still are civil (around 0C=32F). The deadly cold snap was/is further south-east, affecting mostly poor people (homeless and migrants) in Eastern and Southern Europe, from Poland to Greece. Not good to live in a tent or stuff like that with temps in the range of hard frost and snow!
Europe migrants crisis: UN alarmed at asylum seekers dying of cold, 'dire' situation in Greece
Posted about 2 hours ago

However, last night in western Europe and central Germany we've got some severe winter weather due to windstorm Egon too (with some fatalities due to accidents):
Storm 'Egon' brings chaotic winter weather to Europe
Quoting 48. Patrap:

The wife and I are torn between retiring in Boone, N. Carolina, or Tromso, Norway.
I want to be above the heat.
It is worse here every Summer.

I "retired" a bit north of Boone back in '98. The temperatures around here run about 10 F cooler than the flatlands of Charlotte or Knoxville, but in winter, the temps can get down to those near Chicago. We had minimums of 3 F Sunday then 7 F Monday this week, but things are much warmer now with a highs of 65 yesterday and 59 today. Winter storms can be quite interesting, with lots of wind and all variations of frozen stuff. The worst I've seen was a 16 inch dump before Christmas one year. So far this year, we've had a total of only 6 inches, but I would expect more after the January Thaw moves on. One thing about mountain weather is it's variability.

Here's a local website dedicated to mountain weather, which has some local historical data available, FYI.
Quoting 9. gr8lakebreeze:

Thanks for the breakdown Bob. The bit about the PDO got me thinking of the QBO and its recent weirdness, check out the end of the chart on the link. I don't know what connection they have if any but still, interesting times.

I made a 30mb zonal wind QBO chart from data available at NOAA. By using a three year QBO interval, the chart gives one an idea of the unprecedented disruption to the QBO that happened in the spring-summer of 2016 and how it compares to recent 3 year intervals.

A strongly positive QBO, as it is right now, statistically favors a stronger arctic polar vortex (PV). Our currently strong PV is forecasted to become weakened-disturbed over the coming weeks, which supports more cold outbreaks in the mid-lattitudes and warm air mass intrusions into the arctic. However, it is important to appreciate that in our climate 2.0 a strong PV is not propagating down into the polar jet stream like it used to. So we have been witnessing a consistently wonky polar jet that allows in mid-latitude heat, water vapor and winds which have reduced arctic ice to record low extent, area and volume. For more see Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts

Quoting 80. daddyjames:

Speaking of ice, good news for Greenland. ...

Always nice to hear some good news from Greenland! Would hate to experience our European heating shut down due to meltwater from there! My town Mainz is exactly on lattitude of 50° north.

Collapse of Gulf Stream poses threat to life as we know it
New research suggests the Gulf Stream system that grants Europe and parts of North America its temperate climate cannot weather global warming. Should we be worried?
DW, 11.01.2017
Quoting 2. Astrometeor:

Meanwhile it keeps on raining here. After having an unusually dry fall here in Tennessee (re: gatlinburg fires), now it is raining or just overall gloomy here and the no end in sight on the forecast. Thankfully, temperatures will be too warm for ice storm conditions...
Yeah, I remember those gray gloomy middle TN days all to well! Glad to hear you'll be dodging the ice.
Speaking of winter: Below the current webcam pic of Mainz cathedral (I live nearby). Nice, eh?


(Click to enlarge). Source for updates and a high res picture. Including weather data at the cloud symbol..

Edit: Awww, it's already thawing. Temps are above 0 Celsius at my place. And the illumination of the cathedral got switched off at midnight.
Quoting 91. barbamz:

Speaking of winter: Below the current webcam pic of Mainz cathedral (I live nearby). Nice, eh?


Source for updates and a high res picture. Including weather data at the cloud symbol..


It looks like there are lots of Autobahnen nearby, since the sky is so orange... or industrial activity, but isn't Mainz an old capital of Hesse, or something like that, rather than an industrial city?
Quoting 94. elioe:

It looks like there are lots of Autobahnen nearby, since the sky is so orange... or industrial activity, but isn't Mainz an old capital of Hesse, or something like that, rather than an industrial city?

Quite right, Elioe. Although German state Hesse is just some yards away on the other side of Rhine, venerable Mainz is the capital of adjacent Rhineland-Palatinate. It's part of the bigger and thriving Metropolitan area of Rhine-Main with Frankfurt and other cities though - and yes, there is a lot of light pollution in this region, unfortunately. But the "autobahnen" are a bit (some miles) away from the historic city where I live. Around my place with the old alleys you still get the feeling of a village, at least sometimes :-)
Article Mainz in wikipedia.

Good night with this. Good luck for those in the path of severe weather!
Quoting 46. daddyjames:



Well thanks for crushing my hopes (post 39. daddyjames) with a dose of reality ;)

Although, MO/SoIL seems as if they'll get the worst of this today.
Yes. today didn't seem like much here. As predicted, sporadic precip brought a cellophane-thin layer on a metal shed roof that melted when the late afternoon temp hit 32, replacing the ice with 3" icicles along the roof's edge.

The best is yet to come, as some songwriter said. I say, let's just get it overwith and get on with whatever life brings. Patience is not my strong suit...
(typos edit)

The extension of Norman's ice storm warning southward deserves mention. More counties are now warned for 0.25" with more ice accumulation possible in places. The new impact graphic is interesting compared to yesterday's
Current impact graphic...


24 hours ago impact graphic...
Quoting 36. CaneFreeCR:

The average distance doesn't change to any significant extent, or the year would be getting longer or shorter (depending on the change). What does change is the elipiticity of the Earth's orbit, influenced by gravitational attraction of the other planets, mainly Jupiter and Saturn with some help from Venus. So the furthest distance and closest approach do change slowly, contributing to conditions that can initiate a continental glacial episode, but the year remains 365.24 days long.


I phrased that horribly. I meant it's orbit and not how long it took to complete it.
From NWS-Salt Lake City:


What a storm cycle for the northern half of Utah for January so far! A very active period of weather brought upwards of 10 inches of water equivalent to the northern Utah mountains. A few of the higher water equivalent totals include Tony Grove Lake at 13.4 inches, Ben Lomond Peak at 13.0 inches, Bug Lake at 10.5 inches, Horse Ridge at 8.9 inches and the Snowbird SNOTEL at 8.7 inches.
Quoting 70. nymore:



If you live in downtown Minneapolis or St. Paul you can use the Skyway System, although Mpls has a much larger one something like ten miles long when counting all blocks included.

On the weather front fairly calm here. A nice and welcome warm up is on the way after a low of -36f (windchills below -50f) last night. Temps may get near 30 above next week.


Time to open up the pool eh?
Quoting 96. Barefootontherocks:

Yes. today didn't seem like much here. As predicted, sporadic precip brought a cellophane-thin layer on a metal shed roof that melted when the late afternoon temp hit 32, replacing the ice with 3" icicles along the roof's edge.

The best is yet to come, as some songwriter said. I say, let's just get it overwith and get on with whatever life brings. Patience is not my strong suit...
(typos edit)


I'm there with you in regards to the patience. Went out with the little one to see Sing. (Took a look at the radar before leaving). Just started back up again when we left.
Thin glaze in the morning melted off as well, but has been replaced with a little more very recently.
Quoting 97. Barefootontherocks:


The extension of Norman's ice storm warning southward deserves mention. More counties are now warned for 0.25" with more ice accumulation possible in places.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Freezing rain and rain will persist through Saturday over most of
Oklahoma and northern Texas. IFR conditions become common.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Freezing rain and ice accumulations continue to be the questions
this forecast.

Small area of freezing rain in north central OK this afternoon
will continue to lift NE out of the area. Radars show another area
of precipitation moving into the area from Texas. This
precipitation will move into areas where temperatures are at or
near freezing leading to another round of icy weather.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly steady tonight so areas
that are at or below freezing right now will likely remain that
way tonight. Models show another round of heavier precipitation
late tonight into Saturday morning across portions of central OK.

Where exactly this area of heavier freezing rain sets up will have
an impact on ice accumulations overnight into the morning. Right
now, the models are showing this area along or near the I-40
corridor which includes the OKC metro area. With this in mind, the
Ice Storm Warning has been extended southward and some adjustments
were made to the freezing rain advisories. Models then show
another round of heavier precipitation affecting NW/N portions of
the fa Saturday afternoon and night.


The freezing line is still expected to begin to slowly shift
northward Saturday and Saturday night so even though precipitation
chances will continue Saturday some locations will only experience
a cold rain instead of freezing rain. How soon and how quickly the
freezing line lifts could have an affect on how much ice
accumulation occurs in a location. The good news is that once
temperatures go above freezing this weekend, they will likely
remain above freezing except for maybe parts of N OK. Temperatures
are expected to warm to above freezing everywhere on Sunday.
Models show the upper low moving across the region Sunday into
Monday leading to fairly widespread rain showers and some
thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms may also be possible
in parts of southern OK and north TX Sunday night into Monday. The
precipitation is expected to finally end on Monday. After Monday
the forecast remains dry with near or above average temperatures
next week.
Quoting 83. calkevin77:

Good afternoon. Its almost 80 degrees here in Austin. Last week we had windchill values down to around 5 degrees. La Nina, El Nino pssh. More like muy loco.

I live in Austin also. We sure have been on a roller coaster ride lately, eh?
The Human World Has Never Experienced A Time When Global Sea Ice Was So Weak and Reduced
Neven — one of the world’s most beloved sea ice trackers — has again taken a break from his much-earned sabbatical to issue yet one more warning on the state of global sea ice.

His report, based on this month’s bombshell National Snow and Ice Data Center statement, can best be described as an urgent call for action on the part of the global community to redouble efforts aimed at reducing the wide-ranging and expanding harms caused by the terrible warming trend we have artificially forced upon our world.


Link

Quoting 80. daddyjames:

Speaking of ice, good news for Greenland.





It's nice to see that some of the ice in Greenland is making a bit of a comeback.
Several showers today as the ULL traverses the area and goes southeast into Baja. Rainfall totals for January 2017 Storm # 3 is 1.22", pretty much what models/forecasters forecast for the storm in mountain areas. ULL seen well just west of northern Baja and should head east with possible wraparound showers tomorrow am. Soo Cal then gets a 3-5 day break for drying out before a strong 300mb jet of 180-200kts edges into California with 2-3 storms/waves from Thursday thru the weekend. Still almost a week away so will need to keep an eye on the models even though they have been pretty persistent about them.













Then the storms roll in:







And later on more snow for sierra's







Oooppps....forgot the next Thursday storm

Quoting 107. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Oooppps....forgot the next Thursday storm




LOL - how can you keep count?
109. elioe
Quoting 80. daddyjames:

Speaking of ice, good news for Greenland.






It should be noted, that most of the positive development in Greenland ice sheet this winter is due to Hurricane Nicole. If we were to attribute future developments in sea level accordingly, it would be most likely found, that the snowfall caused by Nicole reduced the future climate change related property losses by some 5 - 10 billion dollars. Nicole was almost as much beneficial as Matthew was damaging.
I say La Nina will weaken to cool Neutral then I say over Summer it will stay cool neutral then cool to La Nina by Autumn

well we will see
Quoting 109. elioe:



It should be noted, that most of the positive development in Greenland ice sheet this winter is due to Hurricane Nicole. If we were to attribute future developments in sea level accordingly, it would be most likely found, that the snowfall caused by Nicole reduced the future climate change related property losses by some 5 - 10 billion dollars. Nicole was almost as much beneficial as Matthew was damaging.
Could you please explain your reasoning in saying Nicole's snowfall might reduce future climate change related property losses? I'm not following you.
Quoting 105. hotroddan:


It's nice to see that some of the ice in Greenland is making a bit of a comeback.


Comeback? No. That's like saying a football team down 77-0 in the last minute of the 4th quarter is making a comeback because they kicked a field goal. The gain has been primarily from Nicole as el noted, and is a tiny fraction of what it would take get the Greenland ice back to where it once was.

Powerful Pacific jet aimed straight at California next week.

Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Areas affected...Western North TX into western and central OK

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 140405Z - 140900Z

SUMMARY...Showers producing freezing rain with rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours will continue to develop and spread north across portions of western North TX into southwest, west, and central OK into the overnight. Locally greater freezing rain rates around 0.05-0.10 inches per hour will be possible, with stronger showers and/or isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Trends in evening surface observations showed temperatures across much of western North TX through western and central OK were in the upper 20s to around 30 F. At 03Z, the freezing line extended northeast from portions of western North TX through extreme south-central to northeast OK. Since 0130Z, mosaic radar imagery indicated areas of showers increasing some in coverage, intensity, and longevity in an area from KABI (Abilene) to KSEP (Stephenville, N TX) to southern OK from KFSI (Fort Sill near Lawton, OK) to KPVJ (Pauls Valley OK). These showers appear to be developing in a region of increasing low-level convergence within the nose of a 30-kt south-southeasterly 850-mb jet across west and central TX. Meanwhile, an area of cooler cloud tops moving to the north-northeast across this same region likely indicate greater upward motion ahead of a shortwave trough located over Far West TX.

Composite map analysis of 00Z upper air data and recent surface observations showed a shallow northward-sloping frontal zone with the surface front extending from the Arklatex to DRT (Del Rio TX), while the 850-mb front was much farther north from central MO to central and southwest KS and the northern TX Panhandle. Lift will continue to increase across the discussion area as the Far West TX trough moves toward the north-northeast and the low-level jet strengthens. These factors may aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms, given steeper midlevel lapse rates per 00Z soundings at MAF/AMA. However, the aforementioned frontal slope suggests showers should tend to be mostly shallow, producing mainly light precipitation rates.

..Peters.. 01/14/2017
115. vis0
Quoting 112. Xyrus2000:



Comeback? No. That's like saying a football team down 77-0 in the last minute of the 4th quarter is making a comeback because they kicked a field goal. The gain has been primarily from Nicole as el noted, and is a tiny fraction of what it would take get the Greenland ice back to where it once was.
beat me to it.  Was going to post  "comeback, nah" more like LIGHT cosmetic(s)
Quoting 111. FLwolverine:

Could you please explain your reasoning in saying Nicole's snowfall might reduce future climate change related property losses? I'm not following you.


Its nonsense in every sense,

What methodology used is mystery meat most likely.

It fills in the equative blanks .


I am Groot'



Human Rights Watch wrote a letter to President-elect Donald Trump. In the letter they addressed environmental concerns:

Undermining Environmental Protections

"During your campaign, you have announced an intention to dismantle the Environmental Protection Agency (the EPA). Gutting environmental rules and regulations risks undermining bedrock protections of people and their environment. The EPA plays a crucial role in, among other things, studying pollutants harmful to human health, establishing rules to curb dangerous pollutants, monitoring to ensure compliance, and prosecuting certain polluters. To cite a few of its recent actions, the EPA has set limits on emissions of mercury, arsenic, and other toxic substances from power plants, established a stricter air quality standard on the noxious gas ozone, and launched numerous enforcement actions to protect communities from exposure to toxic lead. We urge your administration to demonstrate leadership by ensuring the EPA can to continue its work to protect public health and the environment."

You can read the entire letter here. Please visit their main page which is accessible from the linked site.

Also: World Report 2017: Demagogues Threaten Human Rights




Quoting 116. Patrap:



Its nonsense in every sense,

What methodology used is mystery meat most likely.

It fills in the equative blanks .


I am Groot'




Been mostly clear and cold for Jan here in Acme, Wa lows in the teens, highs in the low 30s. Total of only 1.1" of precipitation, about half of that frozen. Still have some lingering snow in the shady corner of the field. Hasn't melted off for 36 days now a personal record for my 13 winters here.

15° on this mornings walk. Light overcast at about 8:30.
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



LOL - how can you keep count?

It's haaaaarrrrrrddddddddd!
Quoting 118. swflurker:

If I remember correctly, you were born in 1959? Correct? If true, you will be 58 Sunday! Happy Birthday!!!!!!!!!!!






Thank you, close, but I was born 15 January 1960 last I checked. Dr. Masters was born the same year as well. September 11th.

I was concieved in April of 59'. So my Heart has been beating in 7 decades, in 2 Centuries, and in 2 millennium.


Oooh Rah'
Correction has been noted!!

Quoting 121. Patrap:



i was born 15 January 1960 last I checked. Dr. Masters was born the same year as well. September 11th.

I was concieved in April of 59'. So my Heart has been beating in 7 decades,2 Centuries, and in 2 millennium.


Oooh Rah'
Quoting 121. Patrap:



Thank you, close, but I was born 15 January 1960 last I checked. Dr. Masters was born the same year as well. September 11th.

I was concieved in April of 59'. So my Heart has been beating in 7 decades, in 2 Centuries, and in 2 millennium.


Oooh Rah'

June 1960 here. Ditto, except with a September, 1959 conception.
Quoting 124. washingaway:

Can't sleep? I highly recommend watching:
Uranium- Twisting The Dragon's Tail (part 1)
Uranium- Twisting The Dragon's Tail (part 2)


I hate sleeping. I usually only get a few hours before my brain wakes me and tells me to do something more productive and fun, hence why you can find me posting on here at various hours of the day.
Sydney weather: Heatwave breaks another hottest night record
ABC Australia - January 14, 2017.

Climate change rule of thumb: cold "things" warming faster than warm things
NOAA climate.gov / Beyond the Data blog - Deke Arndt (Nov 2015).
Good morning. - Finally, after a looong drought, Switzerland got its desired white stuff:
Heavy snowfall nixes skiing World Cup in Switzerland
The Local (Switzerland), 14 January 2017, 12:26 CET 01:00

And here a telling pic of the consequences of freezing rain in northern Italy (near Bologna) yesterday:

Foto Emilia Romagna Meteo. Source.

Elsewhere: I'm not sure whether this nice photo report from Siberia has already been posted, so I do it now:
Highest weather station in Siberia... with a toilet teetering on cliff edge
Siberian Times, by Tamara Zubchuk, 05 January 2017
Famous for its lonely loo with a view at 2,600 metres - 8,530ft - this meteorological outpost provides essential data for the world. ...

128. elioe
Quoting 111. FLwolverine:

Could you please explain your reasoning in saying Nicole's snowfall might reduce future climate change related property losses? I'm not following you.


Here's the peak associated with Nicole, filled with light blue.


That's some 30 Gt of snow. And an average snow, which gets deposited in Greenland, remains there for ten thousand years or so, in "traditional" climate. In future climate, it will still be hundreds or thousands of years. So that 30 Gt attributable to Nicole will be away from global ocean volume for a long time. 30 Gt of less volume means somewhat less than 0.1 mm lower ocean surface. Sounds like not much, but each meter of sea level rise leads to tens of trillions(corrected) of USD worth of coastal property losses worldwide.
Quoting 128. elioe:



Here's the peak associated with Nicole, filled with light blue. [snip] That's some 30 Gt of snow. And an average snow, which gets deposited in Greenland, remains there for ten thousand years or so, in "traditional" climate. In future climate, it will still be hundreds or thousands of years. So that 30 Gt attributable to Nicole will be away from global ocean volume for a long time. 30 Gt of less volume means somewhat less than 0.1 mm lower ocean surface. Sounds like not much, but each meter of sea level rise leads to tens of trillions(corrected) of USD worth of coastal property losses worldwide.
OK , I see your reasoning. I don't know if it's correct. But it does seem a bit of a stretch to say that delaying one-millionth of a meter of sea level rise for some period of time would "reduce... future climate change related property losses by some 5 - 10 billion dollars."

I could be wrong about that.
Quoting 109. elioe:


It should be noted, that most of the positive development in Greenland ice sheet this winter is due to Hurricane Nicole. ...

Though I'm not sure about your further calculations, Elioe, the implications of Nicole's visit to Greenland are really impressive.
Here is a note from Oct 22: Ex-Hurricane NICOLE brings snow bomb to Greenland – 12 gigatons record ice accumulation in one day (see chart.)

Current Surface Mass Budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet:
http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenla nd-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget
Quoting 113. BayFog:


Powerful Pacific jet aimed straight at California next week.


This is some harsh timing. It's starting to look like Tuesday maybe, time to drive down to say goodbye to Mom. I was hoping she'd hang on until after the storm season, but when the super-aged start to fail, it goes very fast. Wish me luck, friends. And wish her whatever outcome is best for her.
Quoting 127. barbamz:

Good morning. - Finally, after a looong drought, Switzerland got its desired white stuff:
Heavy snowfall nixes skiing World Cup in Switzerland
The Local (Switzerland), 14 January 2017, 12:26 CET 01:00

And here a telling pic of the consequences of freezing rain in northern Italy (near Bologna) yesterday:

Foto Emilia Romagna Meteo. Source.

Elsewhere: I'm not sure whether this nice photo report from Siberia has already been posted, so I do it now:
Highest weather station in Siberia... with a toilet teetering on cliff edge
Siberian Times, by Tamara Zubchuk, 05 January 2017
Famous for its lonely loo with a view at 2,600 metres - 8,530ft - this meteorological outpost provides essential data for the world. ...




The Siberian station: Gives a new meaning to the term "taking a dump".

Regarding their technology, interesting. I could be a living humidity detector!
"Humidity is measured by a hygrograph which uses human hair to detect changes. The more humid the air, the longer the hair. If the air his [sic] dry, the hair is shorter."
Quoting 128. elioe:

That's some 30 Gt of snow. And an average snow, which gets deposited in Greenland, remains there for ten thousand years or so, in "traditional" climate. In future climate, it will still be hundreds or thousands of years. So that 30 Gt attributable to Nicole will be away from global ocean volume for a long time. 30 Gt of less volume means somewhat less than 0.1 mm lower ocean surface. Sounds like not much, but each meter of sea level rise leads to tens of trillions(corrected) of USD worth of coastal property losses worldwide.

Let's not get too excited about a 30Gt spike in Surface Mass Balance while discharge from Greenland is around 250Gt/yr and accelerating. 
Trump meets with Princeton physicist who says global warming is good for us

"Yes, Donald Trump met with Al Gore. But on Friday, according to the Trump transition team, the president-elect also met with William Happer, a Princeton professor of physics who has been a prominent voice in questioning whether we should be concerned about human-caused climate change.
In 2015 Senate testimony, Happer argued that the “benefits that more [carbon dioxide] brings from increased agricultural yields and modest warming far outweigh any harm.”
While not denying outright that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will warm the planet, he also stated that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would only cause between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius of planetary warming. The most recent assessment of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts the figure much higher, at between 1.5 degrees and 4.5 degrees C.
“All trees, and many other plants, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, etc., are handicapped because, by historical standards, there currently is too little, not too much, CO2 in the atmosphere,” read a slide contained in Happer’s testimony.
“A dispassionate analysis of the science indicates that more CO2 will bring benefits, not harm to the world,” he also said in the testimony."
Quoting 112. Xyrus2000:



Comeback? No. That's like saying a football team down 77-0 in the last minute of the 4th quarter is making a comeback because they kicked a field goal. The gain has been primarily from Nicole as el noted, and is a tiny fraction of what it would take get the Greenland ice back to where it once was.
I think it's also worth noting that the blue area is where a lot of the melting and surface ponding and moulins have occurred and may have a lot more rapid flow as a result of the warming and lubrication of the subsurface ice. So some of the mass "gain" in the southeast may be increased flow filling in where earlier melting took place. Shifting of mass rather than increase.
Here in Stillwater, OK, things are pretty good. Definitely more rounds of rain this morning. Ground seems pretty warm, so except for elevated roads, very little ice sticking at ground level - looks as if it'll remain that way(?).
Trees have that "covered in crystal look", but not too much ice accumulated at the moment.
137. elioe
Quoting 129. FLwolverine:

OK , I see your reasoning. I don't know if it's correct. But it does seem a bit of a stretch to say that delaying one-millionth of a meter of sea level rise for some period of time would "reduce... future climate change related property losses by some 5 - 10 billion dollars."

I could be wrong about that.


One ten-thousandth.

Quoting 133. no1der:


Let's not get too excited about a 30Gt spike in Surface Mass Balance while discharge from Greenland is around 250Gt/yr and accelerating. 


Compared to normal discharge levels, yes, the effect is minor. Compared to normal damage figures from hurricanes, exceptional. If Nicole had caused as much damage as it caused benefits, it would've been retired.
big pressure on spaceX today.
I think that low that had been spinning off the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua delivered most of the heavy rain to Costa Rica in the past week. Yesterday's 24 hr total was 3.4 inches -- I think we are wet enough now! It also steered some of that polar air down here -- 59 degrees F at my weather station overnight. I'm ready to resume Warming :-).
Amazing job!
Video: US truck driver slides down icy road
BBC, 4 hours ago
A US truck driver has been forced to slide his jack-knifed vehicle down an icy mountain road after his trailer's brakes locked. California Highway Patrol officers closed the road and escorted the truck down, making it to a safe place 20 minutes later.

The opposite:
Five cars dragging a truck upwards after it got stuck in snow near Deggendorf/Bavaria last week (youtube).
Quoting 134. no1der:

Trump meets with Princeton physicist who says global warming is good for us

"Yes, Donald Trump met with Al Gore. But on Friday, according to the Trump transition team, the president-elect also met with William Happer, a Princeton professor of physics who has been a prominent voice in questioning whether we should be concerned about human-caused climate change.
In 2015 Senate testimony, Happer argued that the “benefits that more [carbon dioxide] brings from increased agricultural yields and modest warming far outweigh any harm.”
While not denying outright that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will warm the planet, he also stated that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would only cause between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius of planetary warming. The most recent assessment of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts the figure much higher, at between 1.5 degrees and 4.5 degrees C.
“All trees, and many other plants, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, etc., are handicapped because, by historical standards, there currently is too little, not too much, CO2 in the atmosphere,” read a slide contained in Happer’s testimony.
“A dispassionate analysis of the science indicates that more CO2 will bring benefits, not harm to the world,” he also said in the testimony."


Ah, it's William Happer, one of the Emeritus types that have done excellent work in the past but have no relevant expertise in climatology who are esed by the deniers.

Fossil Fuel Funding

William Happer has accepted funding from the fossil fuel industry in the past. In a Minnesota state hearing on the impacts of carbon dioxide, Peabody Energy paid him $8,000 which was routed through the CO2 Coalition. [8]

In 2015 undercover investigation by Greenpeace, Happer told Greenpeace reporters that he would be willing to produce research promoting the benefits of carbon dioxide for $250 per hour, while the funding sources could be similarly concealed by routing them through the CO2 Coalition. [8]

Stance on Climate Change

2016

“Since the year 1800, the Earth has warmed by about 1 degree Celsius. Some fraction of the warming is due to more atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels, but most of the warming is probably due to the same natural forces that have always controlled the Earth’s changeable climate.” [9]

2010

“I, and many other scientists, think the warming will be small compared the natural fluctuations in the earth’s temperature, and that the warming and increased CO2 will be good for mankind.” [10]

Key Quotes

December 8, 2016

“We’re doing our best to try and counter this myth that CO2 is a dangerous pollutant. It’s not a pollutant at all.” [69]

“We should be telling the scientific truth that more CO2 is actually a benefit to the earth. [… ]There are very good reasons to think that.” [69]

“Let me point out that if you have a well-designed coal plant, what comes out of the stack of the plant is almost the same thing that comes out of a person's breath.” [69]

“The main thing is that people don’t realize we’re in a CO2 famine right now. […] We’re way down. We’re down by a factor of 4 or 5 over the levels that plants would really like.” [69]

“We know that the scary things about CO2 you keep hearing about — sea level rise, we’re all going to boil—that’s all based on models that don’t work. They’re not even close to working. […] So why are we basing these ruinous regulations on models that don’t work?” [69]

May, 2016

“Burning all the economically available fossil fuel is unlikely to increase the current atmospheric CO2 levels by even a factor of 2. This is much less than the levels that the Earth has already tested. And a doubled level of CO2 would get us away from the near-famine levels for plants that have prevailed for the past tens of millions of years.” [11]
Quoting 134. no1der:

Trump meets with Princeton physicist who says global warming is good for us

"Yes, Donald Trump met with Al Gore. But on Friday, according to the Trump transition team, the president-elect also met with William Happer, a Princeton professor of physics who has been a prominent voice in questioning whether we should be concerned about human-caused climate change.
In 2015 Senate testimony, Happer argued that the “benefits that more [carbon dioxide] brings from increased agricultural yields and modest warming far outweigh any harm.”
While not denying outright that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will warm the planet, he also stated that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would only cause between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius of planetary warming. The most recent assessment of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts the figure much higher, at between 1.5 degrees and 4.5 degrees C.
“All trees, and many other plants, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, etc., are handicapped because, by historical standards, there currently is too little, not too much, CO2 in the atmosphere,” read a slide contained in Happer’s testimony.
“A dispassionate analysis of the science indicates that more CO2 will bring benefits, not harm to the world,” he also said in the testimony."
Easy to see why Trump would meet with Happer; it's indicative of the former's plans to glean information only from those sources he and his controllers know will support his pre-conceived, pro-pollution notions of how he'd like things to be (which is, obviously, not how they really are). Not that that comes as a surprise; "Confirmation Bias" was one of the things upon which he ran, so we can't expect him to do a quick 180 and start getting information on climate change from actual climate scientists, can we?
Quoting 135. CaneFreeCR:

I think it's also worth noting that the blue area is where a lot of the melting and surface ponding and moulins have occurred and may have a lot more rapid flow as a result of the warming and lubrication of the subsurface ice. So some of the mass "gain" in the southeast may be increased flow filling in where earlier melting took place. Shifting of mass rather than increase.


Either way, with the accelerating mass loss of Greenland it isn't going to hang around for long.
121, 122, 123...youngsters!
Quoting 142. Neapolitan:

Easy to see why Trump would meet with Happer; it's indicative of the former's plans to glean information only from those sources he and his controllers know will support his pre-conceived, pro-pollution notions of how he'd like things to be (which is, obviously, not how they really are). Not that that comes as a surprise; "Confirmation Bias" was one of the things upon which he ran, so we can't expect him to do a quick 180 and start getting information on climate change from actual climate scientists, can we?


Happer is a prime example that Dunning-Kruger doesn't just happen with stupid people. Just because you're an expert in X does not in anyway make you an expert in Y.

Happer certainly knows physics, but knows little about how they apply to Earth's climate beyond some generalities. He doesn't accept a number of well-proven aspects that have been established over the past century+ of research. He plucks the parts he likes, and outright discounts and/or ignores other experts in fields who have put forth research assessing risks and impacts of climate change. For example, when it comes to the impacts of CO2 and temperature on crops, do you listen to the experts in agricultural science and botany or do listen to someone like Happer?

That's something deniers simply don't understand. It's not just climate scientists sounding the warning. It's scientists from multiple branches of science sounding the warning.
Quoting 145. Xyrus2000:



Happer is a prime example that Dunning-Kruger doesn't just happen with stupid people. Just because you're an expert in X does not in anyway make you an expert in Y.




Yeah, I exhibit that almost on a daily basis.
:-/ Arctic/Antarctic sea ice extent (until January 13):

Source/more info: NSIDC - Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis
Good morning, WU. Not a bad day here. Most snow cover has melted, so the 'pretty winter wonderland' look we've had since Christmas is gone. Lots of snow in the mountains though! Regarding the forecast, the 'haze' is coming back (hopefully not for long):



From this morning's AFD from NWS-Salt Lake City:

"Finally, air quality will decline into next week with the
inversion. Generally like to wait 3 days after trapping
pollutants to mention urban haze, and DAQ graphs would indicate
that today would be the day. But given the gradual incline thus
far and the fact that less pollutants are added during the
weekend, waiting until Monday to begin mentioning urban haze. This
looks to last through mid week."

Quoting 140. barbamz:

Amazing job!
Video: US truck driver slides down icy road
BBC, 4 hours ago
A US truck driver has been forced to slide his jack-knifed vehicle down an icy mountain road after his trailer's brakes locked. California Highway Patrol officers closed the road and escorted the truck down, making it to a safe place 20 minutes later.

The opposite:
Five cars dragging a truck upwards after it got stuck in snow near Deggendorf/Bavaria last week (youtube).

Regarding the first video, I wonder what the grade was. Could have had a much worse outcome. In the words of the guy on the radio - 'I can't believe that worked!'

Regarding the second video - it's hard to tell, but the cars were all connected to each other? Never seen anything like it before. I really, really can't believe that worked!
Quoting 136. daddyjames:

Here in Stillwater, OK, things are pretty good. Definitely more rounds of rain this morning. Ground seems pretty warm, so except for elevated roads, very little ice sticking at ground level - looks as if it'll remain that way(?).
Trees have that "covered in crystal look", but not too much ice accumulated at the moment.


I hated Winters in Oklahoma because we would always get freezing rain/freezing drizzle with temperatures at or well below freezing. I was used to northern Virginia (Washington D.C. area) where precipitation was almost always snow when temperatures were in the mid 30s or colder.

Nothing like it being in the 20s outside and the precipitation is falling in liquid form. We even had a couple ice storms where it got down in the teens and the precipitation was still freezing drizzle. It's mainly limited to the Southern Plains (Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas) that see such a shallow layer of cold air at the surface for that to happen.
"Happer certainly knows physics, but knows little about how they apply to Earth's climate beyond some generalities."

You've been telling us of doom and destruction since the 80's, islands submerged, shorelines gone, winter snow just a memory. And here we go again with another cold winter and lots of snow. But,--- well you guys know it all and when you die wisdom will die with you. Ten, twenty years from now, we will continue to have cold winters and lots of snow, and you will tell us how dumb we are and don't know weather from climate.
Speaking of areas of expertise, if some commenters here would state theirs, that might be helpful to your cause, as long as you state the truth.

How about it, any of you who regularly criticize comments questioning AGW and other matters related to climate change, what are your areas of expertise? What have you been paid to do in your lives, and/or what kind of business have you run?

Not that an "area of expertise" is all-encompassing when it comes to human knowledge. It is not. My point is, when you're talking about El Nino and La Nina, for example, and these are far afield from your area of expertise, your explanations of science become less credible, even if we (the readers) do not give credence to this Dunning-Kruger thought - defined in a quick look at wikipedia as "a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is. Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive incapacity, on the part of those with low ability, to recognize their ineptitude and evaluate their competence accurately. "

Far as I can tell, "the Dunning-Kruger effect" is just another label and these days has become a favorite go-to used by some, especially on the internet, to put people down when they cannot find a better argument.
Watch the SpaceX rocket launch here:
Link

From the SpaceX site:
"SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will deliver 10 satellites to low-Earth orbit for Iridium, a global leader in mobile voice and data satellite communications. The 10 satellites are the first of at least 70 satellites that SpaceX will be launching for Iridium’s next generation global satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT.

SpaceX is targeting launch of Iridium-1 from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window opens on January 14 at 9:54:39 am PST or 5:54:39 pm UTC. The satellites will begin deployment about an hour after launch."
Quoting 143. Xyrus2000:



Either way, with the accelerating mass loss of Greenland it isn't going to hang around for long.

Here is a good summary of the ice mass situation in Greenland:

Greenland ice mass loss continued in 2016

December 28, 2016



[...]

The ups and downs in the graph track the accumulation of snow in the cold season and the melting of the ice sheet in the warm season. The Arctic Report Card: Update for 2016 reported that between April 2015 and April 2016, Greenland lost approximately 191 gigatonnes of ice, roughly the same amount that was lost between April 2014 and April 2015. Though the April 2015–April 2016 mass loss was lower than the average April-to-April decline over the entire observation period, it continued the long-term melt trend: approximately 269 gigatonnes per year from 2002 to 2016.

Over the course of the 2016 warm season, melting was especially pronounced in Greenland's southwest and northeast. Melt season lasted about 30 to 40 days longer than usual in the northeast, and about 15 to 20 days longer along the west coast. Albedo (the proportion of incoming solar radiation reflected back into space) was the fifth lowest since the year 2000. Albedo was particularly low in the southwest, and near normal only in the northwest.
Quoting 153. Barefootontherocks:

the Dunning-Kruger effect is just another label and these days has become a favorite go-to used by some, especially on the internet, to put people down when they cannot find a better argument.


Ok BF.
MS in Chemistry (study: natural products biosynthesis, protein isolation and characterization)
Ph.D. in Biology (study: genetics, phylogenetic/evolutionary relationships, metagenomics)

There are a few "sayings" about when you are ready to be awarded your degrees:

1. You know a lot about very little.
2. You recognize just how little you really know.

The Dunning-Kruger effect in essence describes the lack of recognition of just how little someone knows based upon the information they possess.

In regards to AGW - the basic understanding of the effects has been described since the mid-1800's with the works of Joseph Fourier, John Tyndal, Svante Arrhenius.

Here is a general timeline of significant events in AGW research and influences: scientific, economic, and political.

Has there been debate about particulars? Yes. Has there been a lack of understanding/knowledge of the potential impacts? Yes. Has there been misunderstandings, misrepresentation of the data? Yes. Has the data and its implications been distorted - for whatever reasons? Yes.

However, the studies, papers, and scientists that stand the test of time are those that are supported as further data accumulates. Alternative theories have been proposed and, as the evidence accumulates, rejected as the hypotheses that stem from them are not supported by the observations.

What is not understood about science is that scientists are the ultimate skeptics. If done correctly, science is not an exercise to "prove" any one idea - but designed to "disprove" an idea. This is not well-understood by non-scientists, especially in theoretical applications. Once an idea is not supported by accumulated evidence; the idea is either modified or outright rejected. Unfortunately this is misrepresented as "being wrong" and a "bad thing", {Addendum} and has been misused to undermine the public's confidence in science and scientific findings.

The accumulated evidence supports the core theory behind AGW without controversy. If things continue unchecked, it will cause a lot of instability in the world, in a number of different ways. Instability is not a good thing, and everyone in the world will be impacted negatively.

Edited: to fix spelling and grammatical errors
Quoting 150. LAbonbon:

Regarding the second video - it's hard to tell, but the cars were all connected to each other? Never seen anything like it before. I really, really can't believe that worked!

Hi, LAbonbon. Yes, the five cars were connected.
Here is another youtube video where the action is seen from the perspective of the truck driver:

Audi 80 quattros helps a truck with 40 ton

The action has made it to the German news when the first video went viral. The story is, according to this local paper, that the five young guys had been on a joy ride through the fresh snow with their vintage Audi Quattro cars (with a strong four-wheel-drive system) when they spotted the helpless truck from the Netherlands/Belgium at the snowy slope. As a bit earlier news came out that in a nearby Bavarian region three Audi Quattros had been able to pull a truck (video), those five drivers thought to top that with even more cars (and obviously a longer distance), and they did. The article in the newspaper says that some commenters on facebook were sceptic though whether the truck driver might have helped a bit at the throttle. Whatever ;-) When you search youtube for "Audi" and "Truck" videos you'll find several with single cars dragging a truck.
Megastorms vs. megadroughts: Climate change brings a potentially devastating “atmospheric river” to California
After years of drought, the Golden State is hit by epic storms — and it's just the beginning of climate chaos


A series of storms from the vicinity of Hawaii, known as the “Pineapple Express,” have drenched California and parts of Nevada, signaling a likely end to four years of severe drought. Just during the storm that hit Jan. 7 to 10, there were 52 reports of extreme precipitation (meaning more than eight inches of rain in a three-day period), with several measuring twice that. Strawberry Valley, on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevadas, got an amazing 20.51 inches of rain during that storm — more than Los Angeles typically gets in an entire year.

Link
Falcon-9 First stage has touched down on the barge. 2nd stage in parking orbit...
Quoting 155. PensacolaBuoy:

Watch the SpaceX rocket launch here:
Link

From the SpaceX site:
"SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket will deliver 10 satellites to low-Earth orbit for Iridium, a global leader in mobile voice and data satellite communications. The 10 satellites are the first of at least 70 satellites that SpaceX will be launching for Iridium’s next generation global satellite constellation, Iridium NEXT.

SpaceX is targeting launch of Iridium-1 from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window opens on January 14 at 9:54:39 am PST or 5:54:39 pm UTC. The satellites will begin deployment about an hour after launch."


Thanks for that. The video of the landing was very impressive.
I'm not a religious man, however, "The forbidden fruit from the tree of knowledge" is very profound when you consider uranium-235.
Quoting 158. barbamz:


Hi, LAbonbon. Yes, the five cars were connected.
Here is another youtube video where the action is seen from the perspective of the truck driver:

Audi 80 quattros helps a truck with 40 ton

The action has made it to the German news when the first video went viral. The story is, according to this local paper, that the five young guys had been on a joy ride through the fresh snow with their vintage Audi Quattro cars (with a strong four-wheel-drive system) when they spotted the helpless truck from the Netherlands/Belgium at the snowy slope. As a bit earlier news came out that in a nearby Bavarian region three Audi Quattros had been able to pull a truck (video), those five drivers thought to top that with even more cars (and obviously a longer distance), and they did. The article in the newspaper says that some commenters on facebook were sceptic though whether the truck driver might have helped a bit at the throttle. Whatever ;-) When you search youtube for "Audi" and "Truck" videos you'll find several with single cars dragging a truck.

Thanks for all the links! The video of the three cars pulling a truck was pretty cool. And I watched a few other 'Audi assists' videos - I'm impressed :)
The coldest place on Earth - Antarctica
The driest place on Earth - Antarctica

Using snow as proxy for cold , is a fools errand .
In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey did a study of what a 1,000-year atmospheric river storm — known as ARkStorm — would do. Projected losses were staggering, including property losses around $400 billion (more than three Hurricane Katrinas) with another $325 billion in losses due to business interruption, lasting as long as five years. So Californians are lucky today.



Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario
Quoting 125. Xyrus2000:



I hate sleeping. I usually only get a few hours before my brain wakes me and tells me to do something more productive and fun, hence why you can find me posting on here at various hours of the day.

I hate insomnia, but I use the time to gain knowledge and insight. Which as of late, has only served to keep me up at night.
Oh really, last Saturday we had a high of 27 degrees with 2 inches of snow on the ground here in SE Tennessee. Today it is 72 degrees and cloudy skies with a dew point of 60. The moisture in the air is so high everything is wet with temps to high to turn the heat on and to low to turn the AC on. I wonder what our temps would be if the sun was shinning 80 to 85 in January. Call it what you will this weather whiplash is just getting worst every year.
Quoting 134. no1der:

Trump meets with Princeton physicist who says global warming is good for us
"Yes, Donald Trump met with Al Gore. But on Friday, according to the Trump transition team, the president-elect also met with William Happer, a Princeton professor of physics who has been a prominent voice in questioning whether we should be concerned about human-caused climate change.
In 2015 Senate testimony, Happer argued that the “benefits that more [carbon dioxide] brings from increased agricultural yields and modest warming far outweigh any harm.”
While not denying outright that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will warm the planet, he also stated that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would only cause between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius of planetary warming. The most recent assessment of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change puts the figure much higher, at between 1.5 degrees and 4.5 degrees C.
“All trees, and many other plants, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, etc., are handicapped because, by historical standards, there currently is too little, not too much, CO2 in the atmosphere,” read a slide contained in Happer’s testimony.
“A dispassionate analysis of the science indicates that more CO2 will bring benefits, not harm to the world,” he also said in the testimony."

I watched the 8 December 2015 hearing at which Happer spoke. He made a basic error near the end, claiming that satellites measure temperature via infrared emissions. This is grossly incorrect if he meant to refer to the work of UAH and others, which use passive microwave measurements to assess atmospheric "temperature", though I think some sea surface temps are measured that way. Since John Christy was sitting at the witness table along with Happer, his reply was in regards to the UAH results. Happer didn't take issue with Christy's presentation of their "TMT" data instead of their corrected TMT called "Lower Tropospheric" or TLT data. Christy and Spencer have spent the past 25 years promoting their TLT (now called "LT") as the best measure of climate change, so it would appear that Christy intentionally presented the TMT results to misinform the Senators. It was all part of the Republican Presidential campaign, since the hearing was chaired by Ted Cruz as he was beginning his primary run.

One should be aware that there are two different pathways in which plants capture solar energy, the C3 and C4 mode. As I understand it, our food crops rely on one method and "weeds" use the other. It's been claimed that CO2 fertilization tends to favor the weeds over the crops we depend on. Also, higher temperatures and drought effect plant productivity as well, so Happer's simplistic claim clearly doesn't include all the impacts of CO2 and other greenhouse gases...
Quoting 168. EricGreen:


I watched the 8 December 2015 hearing at which Happer spoke. He made a basic error near the end, claiming that satellites measure temperature via infrared emissions. This is grossly incorrect if he meant to refer to the work of UAH and others, which use passive microwave measurements to assess atmospheric "temperature", though I think some sea surface temps are measured that way. Since John Christy was sitting at the witness table along with Happer, his reply was in regards to the UAH results. Happer didn't take issue with Christy's presentation of their "TMT" data instead of their corrected TMT called "Lower Tropospheric" or TLT data. Christy and Spencer have spent the past 25 years promoting their TLT (now called "LT") as the best measure of climate change, so it would appear that Christy intentionally presented the TMT results to misinform the Senators. It was all part of the Republican Presidential campaign, since the hearing was chaired by Ted Cruz as he was beginning his primary run.

One should be aware that there are two different pathways in which plants capture solar energy, the C3 and C4 mode. As I understand it, our food crops rely on one method and "weeds" use the other. It's been claimed that CO2 fertilization tends to favor the weeds over the crops we depend on. Also, higher temperatures and drought effect plant productivity as well, so Happer's simplistic claim clearly doesn't include all the impacts of CO2 and other greenhouse gases...



Its not how they capture solar energy per se, but how they supply carbon dioxide for the synthesis of sugar - the end product of photosynthesis. There are actually three main mechanisms. And each mechanism responds differently to different levels of CO2

Regarding crops:
C3: beans, rice, wheat, potatoes. most temperate crops. all woody trees.
C4: corn, sugarcane, amaranth. hot, dry. mostly grasses but some shrubs (cold-tolerant)
CAM: cactus, euphorbia, some orchids (epiphytic) short of water, not too hot. ...


'Miracle on the Hudson' legacy: 70,000 slain birds


NEW YORK (AP) -- Birds took the blame for bringing down the jetliner that "Sully" Sullenberger landed on the Hudson River eight years ago this weekend. They have been paying for it with their lives ever since.
An Associated Press analysis of bird-killing programs at the New York City area's three major airports found that nearly 70,000 gulls, starling, geese and other birds have been slaughtered, mostly by shooting and trapping, since the 2009 accident, and it is not clear whether those killings have made the skies safer.
Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up.


Link
Regarding impact on crops, sure CO2 may produce growth, but the type of growth that we want (in the edible part)? And increased CO2 does not necessarily mean increased nutritional value.
Additionally, increased CO2 promoting growth may require other additional inputs (increased fertilization, water) that may actually, from an economic/environmental perspective, negatively impact any benefits.

That being said - CRISPER/CAS9 technology is going to have a significant impact over the upcoming years. So, some of these issues could potentially be addressed.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 17 2017 - 12Z SAT JAN 21 2017


excerpt:

"...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT ACROSS THE WEST HIGHEST 5-DAY
TOTALS...LIKELY AT LEAST 5-10 INCHES OVER MOST FAVORED
TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN CA AND THE SIERRA
NEVADA RANGE.
THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WILL SEE THE ENHANCED
COASTAL/LOW ELEV RAIN AND HIGHER ELEV SNOW FIRST WITH THE MSTR
SHIELD EXPANDING SWD/SEWD WITH TIME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REACH AS FAR SWD AS THE SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND INTO THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OVER AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW QUICKLY THE BEST MSTR WILL REACH THESE
SRN LOCATIONS WITH A CURRENT POTENTIAL RANGE BTWN THU AND SAT.
DEPENDING ON SPECIFICS OF SFC SYSTEMS THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE
PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST."


Link to WPC's QPFs
Quoting 157. daddyjames:

Edited: to fix spelling and grammatical errors

I suck at spelling, typing, and basketball.

Intelligence: A basketball player with good spelling and typing skills.
Quoting 173. washingaway:



I type like carp - so I know how you feel. ;)
3 articles published today about Europe and how it's dealing with this (very) cold weather - forecast to last some more days*:

Spain gripped by cold weather and snow - EuroWeekly.
An icy cold front is on a collision course with Mallorca and the other Balearics and is expected to bring snow, freezing winds and rough seas to the islands throughout the weekend, according to Spain's state meteorological agency, AEMET.

Serbia asks Hungary for ice-breakers to clear Danube - Irish Examiner.
Serbia has asked Hungary to send ice-breakers to clear the Danube river after large chunks of ice formed during the past week of extremely low temperatures.

Bone-chilling winter from Berlin to Davos causes energy scramble - The Business Times.

This one was published yesterday by The Guardian:
European countries mistreating refugees in cold weather, says UN

*Climate-Reanalyzer, five-day forecast:
- Temp Anomaly
- Minimum Temp
Climate change shows in shrinking Antarctic snows

Vast icy rock peaks tower above Argentina’s Carlini research base in Antarctica. But scientists who have worked here for decades say the glaciers are less icy than they once were. For international experts stationed at the base, the frozen southern continent is a good gauge of climate change. “When I used to come to Antarctica in the 1990s, it never used to rain,” said Rodolfo Sanchez, director of the Argentine Antarctic Institute (IAA). “Now it rains regularly — instead of snowing,” he told AFP during an Argentine government visit to King George Island, off the tip of the western Antarctic peninsula. Scientists monitoring conditions at the base say the average temperature here has increased by 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past century.
“The glacier used to reach all the way to the shore,” Sanchez says. “Now there is a 500-meter (550-yard) wide beach.” Dark scars of rock are showing through what were once spotless sheets of white snow on the glaciers’ flanks. “Antarctica is a thermometer that shows how the world is changing,” said Adriana Gulisano, a physicist at Argentina’s National Antarctic Directorate.


Link
Dr. Daddyjames! I didn't know, but I suspected. It's wonderful thing when you combine intelligence with education. You can teach a dog many tricks but he will never cook you breakfast. Education and intelligence; you can I have one without the other. But, when have both......!
Quoting 170. RobertWC:



'Miracle on the Hudson' legacy: 70,000 slain birds


NEW YORK (AP) -- Birds took the blame for bringing down the jetliner that "Sully" Sullenberger landed on the Hudson River eight years ago this weekend. They have been paying for it with their lives ever since.
An Associated Press analysis of bird-killing programs at the New York City area's three major airports found that nearly 70,000 gulls, starling, geese and other birds have been slaughtered, mostly by shooting and trapping, since the 2009 accident, and it is not clear whether those killings have made the skies safer.
Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up.


Link

Hopefully it will keep people in planes safer.
Quoting 177. washingaway:

Dr. Daddyjames! I didn't know, but I suspected. It's wonderful thing when you combine intelligence with education. You can teach a dog many tricks but he will never cook you breakfast. Education and intelligence; you can I have one without the other. But, when have both......!


I hide it very well. Intentionally and (more often) unintentionally.
Still a week out but with 500mb temps -30 to -32 just might get that snow I just missed out on for Christmas and New Years Eve. All that snow in the Sierra Nevada Range is making me feel left out.

... All trees, and many other plants, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, etc., are handicapped because, by historical standards, there currently is too little, not too much, CO2 in the atmosphere," read a slide contained in Happer's testimony. ...

Quoting 168. EricGreen:

One should be aware that there are two different pathways in which plants capture solar energy, the C3 and C4 mode. As I understand it, our food crops rely on one method and "weeds" use the other. It's been claimed that CO2 fertilization tends to favor the weeds over the crops we depend on. Also, higher temperatures and drought effect plant productivity as well, so Happer's simplistic claim clearly doesn't include all the impacts of CO2 and other greenhouse gases...


That's correct and very important. Grasses in general are the loosers, while bushes are taking over. The effect is feared by farmers and conservationists as "bush encroachment", where the bushes outgrow the grasses.
Meadows and grazing fields turn to bush where cows and other grazers like white rhinos, hippos and certain antelopes starve. In the Kruger National Park here in SA they started culling the hippos for a lack of food, while livestock farmers in Namibia take mechanical measures to pull out the bushes ...
Maize, rice and wheat production will not increase.
Cotton will, so just change mankind's eating habits, Mr. Happer.

Quoting 170. RobertWC:



'Miracle on the Hudson' legacy: 70,000 slain birds


NEW YORK (AP) -- Birds took the blame for bringing down the jetliner that "Sully" Sullenberger landed on the Hudson River eight years ago this weekend. They have been paying for it with their lives ever since.
An Associated Press analysis of bird-killing programs at the New York City area's three major airports found that nearly 70,000 gulls, starling, geese and other birds have been slaughtered, mostly by shooting and trapping, since the 2009 accident, and it is not clear whether those killings have made the skies safer.
Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up.


Link
I HEARD those new wind mills they have every where kill a lot of them also. hopefully some day we can be more caring about the animals.
Quoting 178. hotroddan:


That's good, hopefully it will keep people in planes safer.
Hard to tell if you read the last sentence or only the headline. More bird strikes = safer?
The biggest threat to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago? Climate change

PALM BEACH, Fla. — In recent years, George and Izabela Buff have watched as more tides climb the sea walls, seep across the manicured greens, and creep toward the hedgerows, ever closer to their columned home.

Few places are as vulnerable to the rising seas as this tony barrier island, a narrow, 16-mile strip of sprawling estates and pampered gardens between the Atlantic Ocean and Lake Worth. The advancing ocean has already cost residents here millions of dollars, and will probably exact a far greater toll in the years to come, town officials say. ............................To defend themselves, residents have stationed powerful pumps around the island, required higher sea walls, commissioned vulnerability studies, and most recently, launched a $100 million project to reduce beach erosion.


Link
Quoting climate misinformer ​William Happer:

“CO2 is a nutrient that is essential to life. CO2 at current levels and higher enables plants, trees, and crops to grow faster and more efficiently. It is essential for life.”


From Skeptical Science:

Plants cannot live on CO2 alone:

More Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is not necessarily good for plants.

The effects of enhanced CO2 on terrestrial plants are variable and complex and dependent on numerous factors

A related lecture-video from Denial101x - Making Sense of Climate Science Denial:

Agricultural impacts

Quoting 178. hotroddan:


Hopefully it will keep people in planes safer.


Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up.
Quoting 178. hotroddan:


That's good, hopefully it will keep people in planes safer.


Who taught you to read? A sentence ends at the full-stop!!
"Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up."
Saw this on WMO's page, but I'm not sure if this has been posted here before. There's a lot of interesting people in the world, and to me this guy is certainly one of them. I bet he could tell some stories :)


The Snow Guardian from Day's Edge Productions on Vimeo.

For 40 years, billy barr has lived alone in small cabin in one of the coldest places in the United States the ghost town of Gothic, CO. With no goals of proving anything, or even knowledge that the climate was changing, billy started collecting data about snowpack to pass the time in his isolated part of the world...

(Tried to get the video to embed, but no luck.)
Quoting 181. EmsiNasklug:Grasses in general are the loosers, while bushes are taking over. The effect is feared by farmers and conservationists as "bush encroachment", where the bushes outgrow the grasses.
Meadows and grazing fields turn to bush where cows and other grazers like white rhinos, hippos and certain antelopes starve. In the Kruger National Park here in SA they started culling the hippos for a lack of food, while livestock farmers in Namibia take mechanical measures to pull out the bushes ...
Maize, rice and wheat production will not increase.
Cotton will, so just change mankind's eating habits, Mr. Happer.


We have some detailed studies of floral changes during the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM}
of 56 my ago, which was an atmospheric carbon excursion much like the one we're in now
(but pulsed and slower).

Here's a presentation by paleobotanist Scott Wing of the Smithsonian, on floral and faunal changes
in the Bighorn Basin of Wyoming during the PETM.

Native trees (Metasequoia, Birch, Katsura) were replaced by legumes, which were infested with
insects. Land mammals... got really small.


Quoting 185. RobertWC:

The biggest threat to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago? Climate change

PALM BEACH, Fla. — In recent years, George and Izabela Buff have watched as more tides climb the sea walls, seep across the manicured greens, and creep toward the hedgerows, ever closer to their columned home.

Few places are as vulnerable to the rising seas as this tony barrier island, a narrow, 16-mile strip of sprawling estates and pampered gardens between the Atlantic Ocean and Lake Worth. The advancing ocean has already cost residents here millions of dollars, and will probably exact a far greater toll in the years to come, town officials say. ............................To defend themselves, residents have stationed powerful pumps around the island, required higher sea walls, commissioned vulnerability studies, and most recently, launched a $100 million project to reduce beach erosion.


Link



But, But, they above sea level,

Pfffth'


Calamity knows no borders, only Men's minds and Maps do.

The Feds slapped a 14 Billion Billion Dollar Ring around NOLA to actual Cat 3 Levels in only 7 years post K....in CASH.

They better get busier in that regard.

Quoting 188. EmsiNasklug:



Who taught you to read? A sentence ends at the full-stop!!
"Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up."
This was a test. This was ONLY A TEST. If this had been a real emergency, the necessity of reading the operator's manual before attempting to land the aircraft in water with 266 passengers would have failed, and you with it. Repeat, this was only a test.
Quoting 183. Tampa969mlb:

I HEARD those new wind mills they have every where kill a lot of them also. hopefully some day we can be more caring about the animals.

CHART: How Many Birds Are Killed By Wind, Solar, Oil, And Coal?

Suggestion to anyone who clicks the link - read the whole article, don't just glance at the chart.
Published on Oct 20, 2016

"For forty years, billy barr has lived alone in a small cabin the snowiest part of the United States – Gunnison, CO. With no goals of proving anything, or even knowledge that the climate was changing, billy started collecting data on snow to pass the time in his isolated part of the world. When climate researchers discovered billy’s forty years of detailed records, they uncovered clear and compelling evidence of climate change. As someone who has had to learn to survive in such a harsh environment, billy shares some advice about how to move forward on our changing planet."





Quoting 181. EmsiNasklug:

... All trees, and many other plants, wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, etc., are handicapped because, by historical standards, there currently is too little, not too much, CO2 in the atmosphere,” read a slide contained in Happer’s testimony. ...



That's correct and very important. Grasses in general are the loosers, while bushes are taking over. The effect is feared by farmers and conservationists as "bush encroachment", where the bushes outgrow the grasses.
Meadows and grazing fields turn to bush where cows and other grazers like white rhinos, hippos and certain antelopes starve. In the Kruger National Park here in SA they started culling the hippos for a lack of food, while livestock farmers in Namibia take meckanical measures to pull out the bushes ...
Maize, rice and wheat production will not increase.



Yes, I suppose I should have acknowledged that the overall statement was correct. (sorry EricGreen).

It is complicated by the fact that you have to account for, not only, for the effect of increased CO2 but also for increased temperature, water use/availability, competition (with "weeds"], efficacy of herbicides, organic carbon content in the soil, the need for additional nutrients/micro-nutrients, the partitioning of the carbon in the plant (where does that carbon go?), the nutritional value of the product, herbivory (insects primary), and diseases.

To state that increased will benefit crops is definitely over-simplistic.

This is challenging.

A recent review, if of interest (opens a pdf). Cultivars to face climate change effects on crops and weeds: a review


Thanks, Pat! Cool story, huh? I'd love to visit with him over a cup of coffee or two.
Indeed, as id like to chat a spell with Him myself..as isolation from the werking world is a blessing.
Coral Bleaching in Japan on January 14 2017 06:42 AM (UTC).

Japan's largest coral reef system has become the latest casualty in a long series of coral bleaching events around the world. More than 90 percent of coral in the Sekisei Lagoon, located in the Okinawa prefecture, has bleached, according to a new survey just released by Japan's Ministry of the Environment. And a whopping 70 percent of the reef has died. It's the worst news yet in a bleaching event that's been going on for months now. A previous survey, conducted in September and October 2016, found that 56.7 percent of the reef had died, while 97 percent total had bleached. An even earlier survey, conducted in July and August, found that 89.6 percent of the reef had bleached, but only 5.4 percent had died. The findings follow a summer marked by unusually high regional ocean temperatures, a primary cause of coral bleaching around the world. Between June and August 2016, water temperatures in the area hovered above 30 degrees Celsius, or 86 degrees Fahrenheit, said Mari Yamazaki, a member of the Environment Ministry's Nature Conservation Bureau, in an email to The Washington Post. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reports that average summer sea surface temperatures for the region are typically around 29 degrees Celsius. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, sea surface temperatures around Japan have risen an average of 1.07 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years, which is more than twice the global average warming rate. Japan isn't the only nation whose corals are suffering. A global bleaching event has been ravaging coral reefs all over the world for several years. Scientists believe a long-term pattern of rising ocean temperatures is largely to blame, although the damage was exacerbated in many places by the effects of an unusually severe El Niño event beginning in 2015. Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef is among the most famous of the casualties. Just a few months ago, researchers announced devastating losses in the northern part of the reef, with up to two-thirds of the corals having died in some areas. And scientists have made similarly grim discoveries in many other reefs around the world, from the United States and the Caribbean to the Western Pacific.
Quoting 189. LAbonbon:

For 40 years, billy barr has lived alone in small cabin in one of the coldest places in the United States the ghost town of Gothic, CO. With no goals of proving anything, or even knowledge that the climate was changing, billy started collecting data about snowpack to pass the time in his isolated part of the world...

An unsung hero.
The Third National Climate Assessment (2014) is presented on a webpage that is interactive, easy to understand, and simple to navigate. It includes both an overview and more in-depth reporting on agriculture. Sorry to the non-U.S. readers of the blog, but it covers only the US. I'm not sure if there's something similar for other parts of the world; if there is I'd love to see it.

National Climate Assessment

An example of the content in the report:



Quoting 193. LAbonbon:


CHART: How Many Birds Are Killed By Wind, Solar, Oil, And Coal?

Suggestion to anyone who clicks the link - read the whole article, don't just glance at the chart.


I say we ban windows - and glass skyscrapers.



A little dated but: Causes of Bird Mortality
Beach replenishment (bringing in or pumping sand on to the beach) has been saving the majority of GOM beaches and Atlantic coast beaches for decades.
Even without GW or sea level rise, these beaches would need to be replenished due to erosion.
This was already a major issue in my environmental classes back in the 1980s.

In my area of S.W. Florida, the beaches are constantly being replenished. It only takes one decent storm to remove a huge amount of beach.
Barrier Islands (through their natural formation) are not supposed to stay in one place. So it's up to man to keep the island from moving inland (using sea walls, jetties, sand replacement, etc).

GW and sea level rise just increase the problem. But even if temperatures were getting cooler every year, beaches would still be eroding away very quickly.
Environment Pollution in Iraq on January 14 2017 04:32 PM (UTC).

The United Nations has warned of an oil spill south of the Iraqi city of Mosul, near the town of Qayara that was retaken from Islamic State militants some four months ago. The warnings came in a report released this week on environmental damages caused by oil fires intentionally started by retreating IS militants. U.N. satellite images published on Tuesday show environmental damage from the fires. The world body says 11 of the fires have been extinguished, but 29 continue to burn, sending thick black smoke into the air. The report warns the spill, described as new, is close to a tributary of the Tigris River, which in turn could mean an oil leak into the key artery, and that parts of the spill are on fire.
Quoting 124. washingaway:

Can't sleep? I highly recommend watching:
Uranium- Twisting The Dragon's Tail (part 1)
Uranium- Twisting The Dragon's Tail (part 2)

It's interesting that you posted this now. I rarely watch TV, but this past week I watched Obama's Farewell Address on PBS, and following that was the documentary Command and Control, about a 1980 Titan missile accident in Arkansas. Not what I'd choose to watch normally, but it was riveting. The next day I watched two more programs on PBS that were nuclear-related, one on Fukushima, and one on the early nuclear testing in Nevada. Needless to say, I didn't sleep well either of those nights. (And I'm with you, washingaway, I hate insomnia. Don't understand how Xyrus hates sleeping!)

So, thanks for the links...and likely another restless night :)
From Climate Central:

Climate Change Is the World’s Biggest Risk, in 3 Charts

The rise of the machines isn’t the biggest threat to humanity. It’s climate change, extreme weather and other environmental factors.

The World Economic Forum surveyed 750 experts on what the most likely and impactful risks facing humanity are in 2017. In a report released Thursday, they ranked extreme weather as the most likely risk and the second-most impactful, trailing only the use of weapons of mass destruction. Climate change is responsible for driving an increase in the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events, notably heat waves.

Failing to adapt to or mitigate climate change and a host of other climate-connected risks including water and food crises and involuntary migration also rank in the top 10.


A matrix outlining the most likely and most impactful risks facing the world in 2017.
Click image to enlarge. Credit: World Economic Forum


To be sure, the machines, rise of illiberalism, income inequality and a raft of other problems all could disrupt the global order, according to the report. But climate change is growing in prominence as humanity’s biggest threat. It’s been a fixture in the top 5 threats in terms of likelihood and impact since 2011.

Extreme weather tops the likelihood list a year after floods ravaged Louisiana and Hurricane Matthew inflicted $10 billion in damage. There were 15 disasters that cost the U.S. $1 billion or more in 2016, trailing only 2011 for a record number of billion-dollar disasters.

Click here to read full article.
I'm involved in a bird strike mitigation project. Every airport that can afford the equipment and manpower practices dispersal and depredation (when necessary and possible) to keep birds out of the way of planes. They were doing it in NYC long before the Hudson landing.

Higher numbers of strikes since then are most likely due to 1) more reporting of strikes thanks to stronger enforcement & awareness of strike-reporting mandates and 2) increasing plane traffic.

PS, no I don't hurt birds personally! :)

Quoting 170. RobertWC:



'Miracle on the Hudson' legacy: 70,000 slain birds


NEW YORK (AP) -- Birds took the blame for bringing down the jetliner that "Sully" Sullenberger landed on the Hudson River eight years ago this weekend. They have been paying for it with their lives ever since.
An Associated Press analysis of bird-killing programs at the New York City area's three major airports found that nearly 70,000 gulls, starling, geese and other birds have been slaughtered, mostly by shooting and trapping, since the 2009 accident, and it is not clear whether those killings have made the skies safer.
Federal data show that in the years after bird-killing programs LaGuardia and Newark airports ramped up in response to the gutsy landing, the number of recorded bird strikes involving those airports actually went up.


Link
Good night with a glance to the Mediterranean where a new cyclogenesis just has started. You can watch it below, currently near/over the island of Corsica (here a map with associated lightning). It should meander south and then loiter in the Thyrrhenian Sea until Wednesday, while deepening (here the UKMO maps; scroll through the site).



Below two maps of gusts from French model Arpege for Tuesday and Wednesday with the little eye of the system north of Tunisia in the latter. The development of the whole thing should be accompagnied by strong (offshore) winds to its north resp. by a fierce Bora storm - those cold offshore windstorms with hurricane force - at the northeastern Adriatic coast esp. in Croatia; you see the deep red colors of strong gusts in the maps below.


Tuesday (click to enlarge).


Wednesday (click to enlarge).

BTW, in Germany boring high pressure with cold temps will resume next week, probably creating once again fog and smog, yawwwn ...
Quoting 198. Skyepony:

Coral Bleaching in Japan on January 14 2017 06:42 AM (UTC).

Japan's largest coral reef system has become the latest casualty in a long series of coral bleaching events around the world. More than 90 percent of coral in the Sekisei Lagoon, located in the Okinawa prefecture, has bleached, according to a new survey just released by Japan's Ministry of the Environment. And a whopping 70 percent of the reef has died. It's the worst news yet in a bleaching event that's been going on for months now. A previous survey, conducted in September and October 2016, found that 56.7 percent of the reef had died, while 97 percent total had bleached. An even earlier survey, conducted in July and August, found that 89.6 percent of the reef had bleached, but only 5.4 percent had died. The findings follow a summer marked by unusually high regional ocean temperatures, a primary cause of coral bleaching around the world. Between June and August 2016, water temperatures in the area hovered above 30 degrees Celsius, or 86 degrees Fahrenheit, said Mari Yamazaki, a member of the Environment Ministry's Nature Conservation Bureau, in an email to The Washington Post. Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reports that average summer sea surface temperatures for the region are typically around 29 degrees Celsius. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, sea surface temperatures around Japan have risen an average of 1.07 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years, which is more than twice the global average warming rate. Japan isn't the only nation whose corals are suffering. A global bleaching event has been ravaging coral reefs all over the world for several years. Scientists believe a long-term pattern of rising ocean temperatures is largely to blame, although the damage was exacerbated in many places by the effects of an unusually severe El Niño event beginning in 2015. Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef is among the most famous of the casualties. Just a few months ago, researchers announced devastating losses in the northern part of the reef, with up to two-thirds of the corals having died in some areas. And scientists have made similarly grim discoveries in many other reefs around the world, from the United States and the Caribbean to the Western Pacific.



It's all just antacids to Trump!
Weather, climate, nuclear worries, bird strikes, coral bleaching, ice woes, oil spills, Trump.....

And how 'bout them Huskies? Longest NCAA winning streak! Who let the dogs out?!

UConn Women Win Their 91st Straight and Rewrite History Again

(They played in Dallas where it's 43F and foggy...)
Even though I hate cold rain I would rather have it over ice any day and that is currently what is happening outside.Since I'm in a house of growing boys the milk was completely gone this morning when I looked in the fridge.Thankfully the weather turned out for the better and I was able to get some things done today.
From Insurance Journal:

New Climate Index Shows Extreme Weather Is Now 3 Times More Frequent

Extreme weather over the last five years has been occurring with a regularity that’s about three times the norm, according to a newly created index from a group of number crunchers.

The Actuaries Climate Index, which was officially launched near the end of 2016, takes data from “neutral, scientific sources, generating objective, evidence-based results on extreme weather events,” according to the index’s creators.

The key metric is a five-year moving average, which enables users to see a clear climate signal.

The current five-year moving average value for the index is 1.02 – a small, but potentially eye-popping figure if you know what it means. The index value reached a value of 0.5 in 1998 and first reached 1.0 in 2013.

Those values indicate a sustained increase in the frequency of extreme weather occurrences and changes in sea levels, according to the keepers of the index, which highlights 12 regions in the U.S. and Canada.

The index is based on analysis of quarterly seasonal data for six components – each of which is a monthly or seasonal time series based on measurements from a network of meteorological stations and coastal tide stations – compared with a reference period of 1961 to 1990. These components measure extremes rather than averages, because extremes have the largest impact on people and property, according to the index creators.

In actuarial-ese, the index is the sum of component values divided by the number of components. The six index components are:

1. Frequency of temperatures above the 90th percentile;
2. Frequency of temperatures below the 10th percentile;
3. Maximum five-day rainfall in the month;
4. Consecutive dry days;
5. Winds above the 90th percentile;
6. Sea level.

The index was designed to be an educational tool to help inform actuaries, policymakers and the public about climate trends and their potential impact, said Doug Collins, chair of the Climate Change Committee, which developed the index.


The recently created Acturaries Climate Index shows increased extreme weather over the last five years compared with a 30-year average.

Click here to read full article.

Looks like a major statewide event for California next week.

Next week's storminess looks to extend into the following week.
Quoting 157. daddyjames:



Ok BF.
MS in Chemistry (study: natural products biosynthesis, protein isolation and characterization)
Ph.D. in Biology (study: genetics, phylogenetic/evolutionary relationships, metagenomics)

There are a few "sayings" about when you are ready to be awarded your degrees:

1. You know a lot about very little.
2. You recognize just how little you really know.

The Dunning-Kruger effect in essence describes the lack of recognition of just how little someone knows based upon the information they possess.

In regards to AGW - the basic understanding of the effects has been described since the mid-1800's with the works of Joseph Fourier, John Tyndal, Svante Arrhenius.

Here is a general timeline of significant events in AGW research and influences: scientific, economic, and political.

Has there been debate about particulars? Yes. Has there been a lack of understanding/knowledge of the potential impacts? Yes. Has there been misunderstandings, misrepresentation of the data? Yes. Has the data and its implications been distorted - for whatever reasons? Yes.

However, the studies, papers, and scientists that stand the test of time are those that are supported as further data accumulates. Alternative theories have been proposed and, as the evidence accumulates, rejected as the hypotheses that stem from them are not supported by the observations.

What is not understood about science is that scientists are the ultimate skeptics. If done correctly, science is not an exercise to "prove" any one idea - but designed to "disprove" an idea. This is not well-understood by non-scientists, especially in theoretical applications. Once an idea is not supported by accumulated evidence; the idea is either modified or outright rejected. Unfortunately this is misrepresented as "being wrong" and a "bad thing", {Addendum} and has been misused to undermine the public's confidence in science and scientific findings.

The accumulated evidence supports the core theory behind AGW without controversy. If things continue unchecked, it will cause a lot of instability in the world, in a number of different ways. Instability is not a good thing, and everyone in the world will be impacted negatively.

Edited: to fix spelling and grammatical errors
Thank you. Thank you. Your fields of study sound exciting! I see you are the only one who "manned up." I never did take you for a rodeo clown or stand up comic. :) I appreciate your background and even more I appreciate your humility. I am very glad (I don't often use the word, "very.") you are in Oklahoma because your influence is sure to be felt here.

Reciprocal info: I hold a B.S. in Nursing and nurse practitioner certification which took me 12 years after high school to earn. My specialty was maternal and child health which dovetailed into public health. I studied enough upper division physics and chemistry beyond my B.S. to qualify for and gain admission to the University of WA School of Medicine. I did not go on to medical school because my life and my children's needed attention just then. Later on I studied fine arts and writing. That's my formal education. Plus life. As you may know, living sometimes educates you in ways you cannot imagine.

I appreciate your summary of global warming lit/knowledge. The data is essential to winning over the world. I hope scientists can share it in a way that relieves doubt and answers questions. I also hope climate scientists have the courage to approach the new U.S. government with an attitude like yours rather than a purely adversarial one.

And on a weather note, 30 mins between 2:20 and 2:50 pm brought 2mm of ice on above ground surfaces here. Afterwards I could see frozen ice drops hanging from power lines but I cannot see a layer of ice on top of them. So far, so good. Rain falling hard on and off here past half hour but I have not been outside yet to see if it's freezing.

Looks like you are getting heavier frozen precip up there. Hope all is well.

Eastern OK panhandle and NW OK has taken a pounding with some convective-looking clouds showing up on radar.
Looking across CONUS, most freezing rain is now focused on OK and KS. Add: and TX panhandle.
Quoting 186. Xandra:

Quoting climate misinformer ​William Happer:

“CO2 is a nutrient that is essential to life. CO2 at current levels and higher enables plants, trees, and crops to grow faster and more efficiently. It is essential for life.”

From Skeptical Science:
Plants cannot live on CO2 alone:

More Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is not necessarily good for plants.
The effects of enhanced CO2 on terrestrial plants are variable and complex and dependent on numerous factors

William Happer has quite a history in the denialist camp. HERE's a long listing of background information on Happer from DeSmogBlog. Sad to say, Happer appears to be just what Trump might want.
209. LAbonbon
9:58 PM GMT on January 14, 2017
2 +
Weather, climate, nuclear worries, bird strikes, coral bleaching, ice woes, oil spills, Trump.....


But great replies to each of these for the most part. Fleshing out details.

Take "nuclear worries" for instance. I too watched PBS this past week . They went on a real tare , about nuclear this last week.
Soup to nuts .
Command and Control
The Nuclear Option
Twisting the Dragons Tail


The first two, were new to me. The Nuclear Option was a Nova show by Miles O'brien. Very good , very well done. Leaving CNN was the best thing that ever happened to him.

One good thing about when someone say's something really wrong or goofy. A lot of great research usually flows from it , the bird chart makes my point. And looking at that , we need to remove Trump Tower .
217. vis0

Quoting 206. ToesInTheWater:

I'm involved in a bird strike mitigation project. Every airport that can afford the equipment and manpower practices dispersal and depredation (when necessary and possible) to keep birds out of the way of planes. They were doing it in NYC long before the Hudson landing.

Higher numbers of strikes since then are most likely due to 1) more reporting of strikes thanks to stronger enforcement & awareness of strike-reporting mandates and 2) increasing plane traffic.

PS, no I don't hurt birds personally! :)


if u only knew what i knew (it'll be on that blog i'm promising for the last 3 yrs) that caused  ATC to turn Sully away from going over my zip 10016 area.  This sudden change was ordered by an retired ATC (a hobby of mine is to eavesdrop on radio-waves) soon after 3 planes flew very low over my area while Sully was then force to head more around the northern edge of Manhattan where the bird strike occurred. 

(BTW the year BEFORE the miracle on the Hudson and THAT year i remember seeing MANY!!! down feather floating through the air to me i thought they where from birds going into new bigger AC units on top of buildings in midtown Manhattan from 6th Ave towards 2nd Ave, many skyscrapers where finished a few years before and bigger AC units where added.  You'd walk down Park Ave with what seemed like the aftermath of a (down) pillow fights on the 60th floor.
Quoting 214. Barefootontherocks:

Thank you. Thank you. Your fields of study sound exciting! I see you are the only one who "manned up." I never did take you for a rodeo clown or stand up comic. :) I appreciate your background and even more I appreciate your humility. I am very glad (I don't often use the word, "very.") you are in Oklahoma because your influence is sure to be felt here.

Reciprocal info: I hold a B.S. in Nursing and nurse practitioner certification which took me 12 years after high school to earn. My specialty was maternal and child health which dovetailed into public health. I studied enough upper division physics and chemistry beyond my B.S. to qualify for and gain admission to the University of WA School of Medicine. I did not go on to medical school because my life and my children's needed attention just then. Later on I studied fine arts and writing. That's my formal education. Plus life. As you may know, living sometimes educates you in ways you cannot imagine.

I appreciate your summary of global warming lit/knowledge. The data is essential to winning over the world. I hope scientists can share it in a way that relieves doubt and answers questions. I also hope climate scientists have the courage to approach the new U.S. government with an attitude like yours rather than a purely adversarial one.

And on a weather note, 30 mins between 2:20 and 2:50 pm brought 2mm of ice on above ground surfaces here. Afterwards I could see frozen ice drops hanging from power lines but I cannot see a layer of ice on top of them. So far, so good. Rain falling hard on and off here past half hour but I have not been outside yet to see if it's freezing.

Looks like you are getting heavier frozen precip up there. Hope all is well.

Eastern OK panhandle and NW OK has taken a pounding with some convective-looking clouds showing up on radar.
Looking across CONUS, most freezing rain is now focused on OK and KS.



Yes, it has been raining here, but steady enough so as not to build up too much ice - if that makes sense. Trees still enveloped in "crystal" and nothing solid on the ground. The warm spell just beforehand staved off even worse conditions. We are good here. Yes, I saw that and they (north, west and east of me] continue to take the pounding, unfortunately.

Further disclosure on my part: In addition to the graduate degrees, I have a BS in Communications (minor in Theater); a BS in Biology; and a BA in Chemistry. I like learning way too much! ;) Like you, I have made sacrifices (for the little one).

Glad to hear that you are doing fine! And thank you for the kind words.
Quoting 207. barbamz:

Good night with a glance to the Mediterranean where a new cyclogenesis just has started. You can watch it below, currently near/over the island of Corsica (here a map with associated lightning). It should meander south and then loiter in the Thyrrhenian Sea until Wednesday, while deepening (here the UKMO maps; scroll through the site).



Below two maps of gusts from French model Arpege for Tuesday and Wednesday with the little eye of the system north of Tunisia in the latter. The development of the whole thing should be accompagnied by strong (offshore) winds to its north resp. by a fierce Bora storm - those cold offshore windstorms with hurricane force - at the northeastern Adriatic coast esp. in Croatia; you see the deep red colors of strong gusts in the maps below.


Tuesday (click to enlarge).


Wednesday (click to enlarge).

BTW, in Germany boring high pressure with cold temps will resume next week, probably creating once again fog and smog, yawwwn ...


Point blank observation: 'Bora storm', knowing Albanian first to come in mind is 'snow storm' since 'bora' (Albanian) = snow (English). How strange that these storms occur around and in Albania, that the widely accepted meaning of 'Bora' hinting strongly at 'snow', and yet no mention of such Albanian connection in Wikipedia!?
220. bwi
Lowest combined (Arctic + Antarctic) sea ice ever recorded in satellite era (and probably since well before the evolution of humanity).
221. beell
Not an indication of ice amounts-but maybe an indication of frozen anemometers (no report)!
(a favorite tip from the Okies at mesonet.org)



Quoting 220. bwi:

Lowest combined (Arctic + Antarctic) sea ice ever recorded in satellite era (and probably since well before the evolution of humanity).



This is what a tipping point looks like . One of the scariest charts the hand of man has ever plotted.
Quoting 221. beell:

Not an indication of ice amounts-but maybe an indication of frozen anemometers (no report)!
(a favorite tip from the Okies at mesonet.org)






According to WU, my neck of the woods just went over the freezing mark. So, hopefully we are out of the woods (ice wise), so to speak.

Heavy runoff from last week's deluge bringing heavy silt, visible from space. You can see the silt reaching into San Pablo Bay at the north end of SF Bay. The San Francisco buoys in the bay and at the bar and offshore are showing depressed SSTs as the cool freshwater runoff extends out over the ocean surface. The river temps are about 50 F while the coastal SSTs along other parts of the coast are about 4-6 degrees higher. Even the Bodega buoy where temps are often the lowest along the CA coast are higher.
218. daddyjames
11:24 PM GMT on January 14, 2017
3 +
Quoting 214. Barefootontherocks:


I for one, have thoroughly enjoyed this exchange. It has been a real tonic for us all.
Now we we can all say we were at the :

"2017 Oklahoma Ice Storm Love - In"

"2017 Oklahoma Ice Storm Love - In"

I'm at Lubbock .
I have a "B.S." is everything. I'm very smart. Just ask anybody. I know more than the scientists. Trust me! I read somewhere that Climate Change is real, so it must be true. Would I lie to you?
Quoting 227. Grothar:

I have a "B.S." is everything. I'm very smart. Just ask anybody. I know more than the scientists. Trust me! I read somewhere that Climate Change is real, so it must be true. Would I lie to you?


LOL Gro - we know what you have, an irreverent wit and a kind heart. Hope the cold is not affecting you too bad in FL. ;)
229. bwi
Quoting 222. RobertWC:



This is what a tipping point looks like . One of the scariest charts the hand of man has ever plotted.


Important to caution that while Arctic ice has been a very steady decline, decade after decade, Antarctic ice levels have fluctuated wildly over the last couple years, with record highs in 2013 and record lows this year. People who know more than I can explain better.

I think most expectations were for MORE Antarctic ice in the next decade or two, due to fresh surface water (which freezes easier) coming off melting ice shelves and accelerating glacier outflow. Sort of like the Greenland melt that has caused the cold spot in the North Atlantic.

But this year, for some reason, maybe El Nino before, warmth is somehow getting to the Southern Ocean and a swing to very low sea ice levels.
230. bwi
Temps and precip amounts have both overperformed prediction in DC today. 0.32 inches rain at my PWS; temp 33f. Hasn't fallen below freezing all day. Had a few sleet bombs on my ride today, but mostly just plain light rain.
CA surely will take all the precip this winter with a 2017 'weak El Niño' possible.
Quoting 228. daddyjames:



LOL Gro - we know what you have, an irreverent wit and a kind heart. Hope the cold is not affecting you too bad in FL. ;)


It is supposed to drop below 70 tonight. Time for the snuggies.
233. beell
Quoting 223. daddyjames:



According to WU, my neck of the woods just went over the freezing mark. So, hopefully we are out of the woods (ice wise), so to speak.


It's been a delicate balancing act all day as the warm-air advection increases in advance of the mid-level low over the Baja and slowly erodes the cold surface air from southwest to northeast. All the while, liquid precip lowers the wet-bulb temp and reinforces or prolongs the sub-freezing surface temps. Intertwined with this struggle, heavier precip has a tendency to drag some of the warm layer air (8-10C at and above a couple of km AGL) to the suface.

I wouldn't call it quits in Stillwater yet-but it seems south central KS will catch the worst.
From Tamino:

Global Warming's Record Year

"It is widely publicized that 2016 will certainly break the record for yearly average global temperature. Again. This will be the third year in a row we've set a new record. It's time we paid attention.

I've often emphasized that just because Earth shows an indisputable warming trend, that doesn't mean every year will be hotter than the one before. In addition to trend, there is also a lot of fluctuation in things like global temperature. So we shouldn't expect each year to break the temperature record.

But we did in 2014. We did again in 2015, by a substantial margin. We did again in 2016, by a substantial margin. The third year in a row of record-breaking global temperature will probably get the most attention, but it may not be the most important or most worrisome record set last year.

[account of record land area temperature, record low global sea ice, record atmospheric CO2 and growth rate]

We're not just failing to gain ground, we're losing at a record pace.

Just when we most need to slow our greenhouse gas increase, it's actually accelerating. And there's also a new, worrisome record: the U.S. government's new administration is now in the hands of a record number of the most vile and idiotic climate deniers imaginable."

Quoting 232. Grothar:



It is supposed to drop below 70 tonight. Time for the snuggies.


You gotta do what you gotta do to stay warm!
Speaking of which, seems as if the freezing line went back south :(
And the rain is coming down . . .
That's what I get for counting chickens . . . .

Addendum: beell, just saw your comment. Thanks for the explanation!
Please enlighten me, as I am a geologist and not a meteorologist, but it seems like California has been getting more rain in this marginal La Nina winter that last winter when a strong El Nino was in force. I thought that the reverse should be true. Is a strong PDO associated with above normal rainfall in California? I believe that here in Texas, that droughts are usually associated with negative PDO's.
Definitely getting worse here :D

Quoting 234. no1der:

From Tamino:

Global Warming's Record Year

"It is widely publicized that 2016 will certainly break the record for yearly average global temperature. Again. This will be the third year in a row we've set a new record. It's time we paid attention.

I've often emphasized that just because Earth shows an indisputable warming trend, that doesn't mean every year will be hotter than the one before. In addition to trend, there is also a lot of fluctuation in things like global temperature. So we shouldn't expect each year to break the temperature record.

But we did in 2014. We did again in 2015, by a substantial margin. We did again in 2016, by a substantial margin. The third year in a row of record-breaking global temperature will probably get the most attention, but it may not be the most important or most worrisome record set last year.

[account of record land area temperature, record low global sea ice, record atmospheric CO2 and growth rate]

We're not just failing to gain ground, we're losing at a record pace.

Just when we most need to slow our greenhouse gas increase, it's actually accelerating. And there's also a new, worrisome record: the U.S. government's new administration is now in the hands of a record number of the most vile and idiotic climate deniers imaginable."




Woooooooo, Hooooooooooooooo'


Quoting 227. Grothar:

I have a "B.S." is everything. I'm very smart. Just ask anybody. I know more than the scientists. Trust me! I read somewhere that Climate Change is real, so it must be true. Would I lie to you?

Careful Gro, your wit could get you labeled a rodeo clown. And nobody knows rodeo clowning better than me, believe me. I once made an 800lb charging bull laugh to death. Rodeo clowning don't get no better than that.

Edit: unless you're riding a 20 mega ton thermal nuclear bomb.
Art , which leads to thinking.
Art doesn't make you think. It makes you feel.
Quoting 239. washingaway:


Careful Gro, your wit could get you labeled a rodeo clown. And nobody knows rodeo clowning better than me, believe me. I once made an 800lb charging bull laugh to death. Rodeo clowning don't get no better than that.

Edit: unless you're riding a 20 mega ton thermal nuclear bomb.


That would really be "slim pickens" :)

Nothing more dangerous than an ice storm. Always hated those.

Quoting 236. Lagarto77041:

Please enlighten me, as I am a geologist and not a meteorologist, but it seems like California has been getting more rain in this marginal La Nina winter that last winter when a strong El Nino was in force. I thought that the reverse should be true. Is a strong PDO associated with above normal rainfall in California? I believe that here in Texas, that droughts are usually associated with negative PDO's.

Buckle your chi strap.
"Rodeo clowning don't get no better than that."
You're just a plain old clown. A real rodeo clown would know that should read, "Rodeo clowning don't get no better then that."
Quoting 241. Barefootontherocks:

Art doesn't make you think. It makes you feel.


Depends on the art. :)
Quoting 216. RobertWC:

209. LAbonbon
9:58 PM GMT on January 14, 2017
2 +
Weather, climate, nuclear worries, bird strikes, coral bleaching, ice woes, oil spills, Trump.....


But great replies to each of these for the most part. Fleshing out details.

Take "nuclear worries" for instance. I too watched PBS this past week . They went on a real tare , about nuclear this last week.
Soup to nuts .
Command and Control
The Nuclear Option
Twisting the Dragons Tail


The first two, were new to me. The Nuclear Option was a Nova show by Miles O'brien. Very good , very well done. Leaving CNN was the best thing that ever happened to him.

One good thing about when someone say's something really wrong or goofy. A lot of great research usually flows from it , the bird chart makes my point. And looking at that , we need to remove Trump Tower .


Yeah, it's pretty obvious (to me anyway) that PBS decided to air those documentaries just one week before Trump takes power. The need for awareness is high.
Quoting 244. Barefootontherocks:

"Rodeo clowning don't get no better than that."
You're just a plain old clown. A real rodeo clown would know that should read, "Rodeo clowning don't get no better then that."

I respectfully disagree, "then": at that time; at the time in question:
"I was living in Cairo then" · [more]
synonyms: at that time · in those days · at that point (in time) · [more]

My grammar, as bad as it may be, might be better "than" yours.
With all the things that life throws at us, including laughter, you would think that laughter would be the easiest to deal with. Humor is a human thing. I say embrace it. It's better than hate.
A half-inch of snow turned to ice yesterday morning. Not the ice storm that we're all watching now, but when we left a home inspection my girl slipped on the ice and did a faceplant and jammed her wrists. No broken bones at least.
The driveway had a slope of about ten degrees, and the car was parked 30 ft down. I carefully slid down, stopping myself with my hands firmly grabbing on to a headlight. Then I went to the door, holding the mirror and then the door handle to prevent my sliding down and away. I managed to get into the car. My girl told me to drive down to the bottom, and she walked down there on the grass. The car had better traction than my shoes, and leaving it in neutral I inched my way down the little hill, about 70 ft., and she got in. That's in Illinois!
Quoting 236. Lagarto77041:

Please enlighten me, as I am a geologist and not a meteorologist, but it seems like California has been getting more rain in this marginal La Nina winter that last winter when a strong El Nino was in force. I thought that the reverse should be true. Is a strong PDO associated with above normal rainfall in California? I believe that here in Texas, that droughts are usually associated with negative PDO's.

Buckle your chi strap.
252. vis0
org upD at 11PM ET/4UTC-


Quoting 232. Grothar:



It is supposed to drop below 70 tonight. Time for the snuggies.
ya sleep w/fabric softener??? oh wait that's an "i"

on the subject of older than looks::

The moon is much older than anyone believed || businessinsider.com || (34.4KB) Grothar::
i could've told ya (business insider?!?..moon???...yeah watch Prez
order a (busimess) mission to da moon to dig up more minerals** then
replace the holes with cheese encased in plastic.


 

The moon is older than scientists thought, UCLA-led research team reports|| newsroom.ucla.edu || (34.1)



 

Early formation of the Moon 4.51 billion years ago || Science Advances//advances.sciencemag.org || (Abstract view full article, metrics  link there...NOT FIREWALLED run quick get it even in PDF if you enjoy search for a donation link)

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

**Remember
the longer one leaves - mineral wise - under the soil the cleaner
nature makes it (pressurized purification)  into an optimum value as in
 crystals that are worth more in money and use.



-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
On another subject
within the next 48 hrs on my zilly blog
i'll post how to make ffox faster am adding a comment onto a ffox 2yr
old reply finally have ffox latest running smoothly and its an easy fix
(has to do with older ffox searchplugins talking to each other on the
server-side thus ffox as soon as opned has something running in bkgrnd
though the first byte comes from your ffox 95% is from servers talking
to old ffox searchplugins [particularly 4 searchplugins and it aint
google nor wikki)
Ya have a clue in this comment i'll link THERE the ffox comment 1st procedure then my added procedure. ...hope i remember.
 


Also
will ask why is WxU loading unprotected (No SSL)  then as it reaches
active load mode becomes High level protected but at times after loading
never reaches  EV SSL(probably to save $$$)  but then once loaded NO
SSL (lowest) of course if this changes after new servers (the butler did
it) then my point is mute.


then
[T͟Hen]
ADVERB
at that time; at the time in question:
"I was living in Cairo then" · [more]
synonyms: at that time · in those days · at that point (in time) · [more]
after that; next; afterward:
"she won the first and then the second game"
synonyms: next · after that · afterward/afterwards · subsequently · [more]
in that case; therefore:
"if you do what I tell you, then there's nothing to worry about" · [more]
synonyms: in that case · that being so · it follows that

As you can see in the bold type "then" comes after that and follows that. Not before that. How am I wrong Daddyjames?
Quoting 171. daddyjames:

Regarding impact on crops, sure CO2 may produce growth, but the type of growth that we want (in the edible part)? And increased CO2 does not necessarily mean increased nutritional value.
Additionally, increased CO2 promoting growth may require other additional inputs (increased fertilization, water) that may actually, from an economic/environmental perspective, negatively impact any benefits.

That being said - CRISPER/CAS9 technology is going to have a significant impact over the upcoming years. So, some of these issues could potentially be addressed.


Every action has a consequence. Every change has a cost. People claiming CO2 is a positive for crops are, as usual, using tunnel vision so they don't see all the other consequences. Here's a few to consider:

1. Rising temperatures impact crop yields, especially if it changes weather patterns that alter things like precipitation amounts and timing. To maximize crop yields plants are "tuned" to their growing environment. Soil, water, diurnal cycles, wet and dry seasons, temperature cycles, etc. all play a part in crop yields.

2. Increased CO2 utilization means increased plant metabolism. Not only does this require more water it also requires more nutrients. The impacts of this could be diverse, affecting everything from the viability of the soil to sustain such growth to draining the water table at rates faster than can be replenished (espeicially if climate change has altered precipitation in the region).

3. It's not just crops that "benefit" from CO2, but so do invasive species. Worse, the warmer temperatures and changing weather would allow the introduction of new invasive species which were "kept out" by prevailing climate conditions. This could include everything from insects to diseases.

Agriculture, especially large scale agriculture, is a hell of a lot more complex than simply sticking seeds in the ground and it's something that naive individuals (such as Happer) don't understand. There's no such thing as a free lunch.
Quoting 245. Grothar:



Depends on the art. :)




?????
Quoting 253. washingaway:

then
[T͟Hen]
ADVERB
at that time; at the time in question:
"I was living in Cairo then" · [more]
synonyms: at that time · in those days · at that point (in time) · [more]
after that; next; afterward:
"she won the first and then the second game"
synonyms: next · after that · afterward/afterwards · subsequently · [more]
in that case; therefore:
"if you do what I tell you, then there's nothing to worry about" · [more]
synonyms: in that case · that being so · it follows that

As you can see in the bold type "then" comes after that and follows that. Not before that. How am I wrong Daddyjames?


LOL - remember my comment about unitentionally hiding things?
Hope everyone stays safe during the upcoming ice storm. We seem to be getting a lot of ice fog here and that stuff stinks. It makes the trees very pretty and that is where the positives stop.

Got 10" - 12" of snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. But based on this post, looks like next year could be another low snow and warm winter. As we bid farewell to La Nina.
Quoting 245. Grothar:



Depends on the art. :)
Thoughts on art removed to StormDrain blog. If it's to be continued, better to continue the discussion there, not here.
Ps. about art removed to StormDrain blog..
Art and art comment removed because its no longer relevant.
An ugly cartoon depicting Donald Trump as a screaming baby dressed in a dirty diaper with flies around it is not art. The image you posted mocked Donald Trump and your comment mocked the words I posted. And that is all I will ever have to say to you.
(screen grab added; 5:20 pm cst: graphic accidentally deleted from PB and replaced with same graphic)

Quoting 261. Barefootontherocks:

An ugly cartoon depicting Donald Trump as a screaming baby dressed in a dirty diaper with flies around it is not art. The image you posted mocked Donald Trump and your comment mocked the words I posted. And that is all I will ever have to say to you.


It is art. You just don't agree with it.

Does it belong on this blog? Not really. But art, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.
Xyrus, I saw you after I signed out. Normally I don't see your comments.

Satirical art does have its place. Some art critics, though, would argue satirical art crosses the line when it becomes offensive. I don't care who you are, that image is offensive. And that's all I will ever have to say to you.
Lightning strikes in the last 24 hours, N.Am./Eur. - from Jan 14, 0830z to Jan 15, 0830z
(source/live map: hist. data/blitzortung.org).
Art can inspire both feeling and thought, depending on the art and the person. Before the discussion here I used art to illuminate or sharpen points I made on Dr. Rood's blog, hopefully effectively, in comments #1, #28, and #40. And I made a word puzzle in comment #9 with the forth letter of the first dozen lines. Are word puzzles art?

The responses art elicits from people are as varied as people themselves. I've been posting a lot of medieval and ancient art in my blog, some edgy, some not. Even the title of my entry comes from The Book Of Exeter, c. 960-990. As my interests in weather and climate wanes, others grow. I change.
Quoting 255. daddyjames:





?????


Works for me if Im allowed an opinion.
Quoting 264. 999Ai2016:

Lightning strikes in the last 24 hours, N.Am./Eur. - from Jan 14, 0830z to Jan 15, 0830z
(source/live map: hist. data/blitzortung.org).


Cool graph(s)!
GFS Still forecasting multiple storms for pretty much ALL of California next week. Being in Soo Cal, I will post on those storms effecting it.

January Storm # 4- Looks like a weak/moderate storm at best with just the tail end of front coming thru Soo Cal. It is forecast to come in during the daylight hours of Thursday January 19th, with a rain period followed by showers in a 12 hour time frame.





January Storm # 5- January 21-22 A stronger and bigger storm with the possibility of some pre-frontal showers coming onshore Friday 10am PST prior to frontal passage which is forecast to pass through about 2-10pm PST, With a yellow bullseye of precip between 4pm-10pm PST. This storm is stronger and will last longer than Storm # 4 and will have lower snow levels especially up north and possibly I get some down in Soo Cal at my 3,500 foot elevation to make up for not getting any snow on Christmas and New Years Eve's. This will be a Friday January 20th-Saturday January 21st storm.






January Storm # 6-Mostly a January23 storm. Some prefrontal showers possible for Orange, Riverside Counties and heavy rain at lower elevations up north and heavy snow at higher elevation in the Sierra's.Front getting very close to Soo Cal at 4am PST. moderate/heavy rain bullseyes in LA, Orange and NW San Diego County at 10am PST. Front still traversing Soo Cal and looks like my place is in that thin line of blue running down thje middle of San Diego County from south to north, so maybe another chance of snow for me!








Rainfall from these forecast storms in Soo Cal: Looks like 2"-4.5",some nice rain for a 3 day weekend......hope the forecast verifies!








From The Landslide Blog:

6 JANUARY 2017

Collapsing Arctic coastlines

In a commentary just published in Nature Climate Change, Michael Fritz from the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Potsdam, and colleagues, have highlighted the potential physical and socioeconomic impacts of the collapse of coastlines in the Arctic. The article has also been covered in a piece published today in the International Business Times, which is accompanied by some startling images of the coastal landslides that are a primary mechanism for this loss of land:


The eroding coastlines of the Arctic – image by Michael Krautblatter via IBT

The article highlights that the materials that form these Arctic coastlines consist primarily of thick, organic-rich permafrost (frozen soils). The rate of erosion of these coastlines has increased dramatically as global warming drives an increasing impact in high latitude areas. The effects are a triple whammy on arctic coastlines, as noted by Fritz et al. (2017):

Fluxes from coastal erosion are expected to drastically increase due to the combined effect of declining summer sea-ice cover on the Arctic Ocean, longer and warmer thawing seasons, and the rising sea level allowing waves to hit the coast higher and longer during the ice-free season.


The upshot is rates of erosion that can reach 25 metres per year, as shown in the image below, and huge increases in the rate of organic release.


A landslide on Herschel Island, illustrating the rate of loss of Arctic coastlines. Image by Boris Radosavljevic via IBT

Fritz et al. (2017) note that the impact of such large releases of carbon to the local and global environment are poorly understood, and urge an increased research effort to understand these processes. They note that these landslides that are causing such rapid degradation of Arctic coastlines are likely to have impacts on Arctic marine biodiversity, food security of high latitude people and cultural heritage. These impacts are being seen across the Arctic – 34% of the Earth’s coasts consist of permafrost soils – so the need for increased understanding is clear.


COMMENTARY: Collapsing Arctic coastlines. Fritz, M., Vonk, J.E. and Lantuit [PDF]
Quoting 267. Uragani:


Cool graph(s)!

Yeah it's a nice website (and it's available in 20 different languages) - the live map can be useful when thunderstorms are getting close, these charts are pretty easy to plot/customize, plus you can save them directly on blitzortung servers. I chose a very low res, but if you want high res pics it's possible to plot the charts accordingly. Another website that's a good complement though for local thunderstorms is kachelmannwetter.com with its cool "Blitzanalyse" (detailed lightning analysis) and "Top Alarm" (cloudtops temps) features (too bad it's not available in English...).
Good Sunday morning from quite sunny Germany with a whiff of snow early this morning in Mainz.

If you need a squall of cold water in your face to wake up, watch the video below esp. at its end, umm:
Watch: 50ft waves batter North Sea platform stranding workers
Chris Foote, a day ago
A video shot aboard the Judy platform shows huge waves hitting the facility on Friday.
Extreme weather left North Sea oil workers stranded offshore as 50ft waves battered their platform.
Crew aboard the Judy facility 150 miles off the coast of Aberdeen were due to arrive home on Thursday.
But rough sea conditions meant helicopters were unable to fly and they only returned to land on Saturday afternoon.
A video shot aboard the Judy on Friday shows 50ft waves hitting the platform and the neighbouring CoslRival accommodation rig.

Here is the video on youtube.

News from the waves on the other side of the world:
Changing atmospheric conditions may contribute to stronger ocean waves in Antarctica
PhysOrg, January 13, 2017
Quoting 269. Xandra:

From The Landslide Blog:

6 JANUARY 2017

Collapsing Arctic coastlines

In a commentary just published in Nature Climate Change, Michael Fritz from the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Potsdam, and colleagues, have highlighted the potential physical and socioeconomic impacts of the collapse of coastlines in the Arctic. The article has also been covered in a piece published today in the International Business Times, which is accompanied by some startling images of the coastal landslides that are a primary mechanism for this loss of land:


The eroding coastlines of the Arctic – image by Michael Krautblatter via IBT

The article highlights that the materials that form these Arctic coastlines consist primarily of thick, organic-rich permafrost (frozen soils). The rate of erosion of these coastlines has increased dramatically as global warming drives an increasing impact in high latitude areas. The effects are a triple whammy on arctic coastlines, as noted by Fritz et al. (2017):

Fluxes from coastal erosion are expected to drastically increase due to the combined effect of declining summer sea-ice cover on the Arctic Ocean, longer and warmer thawing seasons, and the rising sea level allowing waves to hit the coast higher and longer during the ice-free season.


The upshot is rates of erosion that can reach 25 metres per year, as shown in the image below, and huge increases in the rate of organic release.


A landslide on Herschel Island, illustrating the rate of loss of Arctic coastlines. Image by Boris Radosavljevic via IBT

Fritz et al. (2017) note that the impact of such large releases of carbon to the local and global environment are poorly understood, and urge an increased research effort to understand these processes. They note that these landslides that are causing such rapid degradation of Arctic coastlines are likely to have impacts on Arctic marine biodiversity, food security of high latitude people and cultural heritage. These impacts are being seen across the Arctic – 34% of the Earth’s coasts consist of permafrost soils – so the need for increased understanding is clear.


COMMENTARY: Collapsing Arctic coastlines. Fritz, M., Vonk, J.E. and Lantuit [PDF]

That means that solid material dumping into Sea/ocean contributes in Sea-level rise. Interesting.
More rain and pain expected as Thai flood death toll rises to 40
by Reuters, Sunday, 15 January 2017 04:24 GMT
BANGKOK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Thailand faces more hardship from unseasonable floods that have killed 40 people in its south, with more rain expected in the major rubber-producing and tourist region in coming days, a top disaster agency official said on Sunday.
Persistent heavy rain well into what should be the dry season has triggered floods across the south, cutting road and rail links, threatening crops and affecting about 1.6 million people, said Chatchai Promlert, head of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department. ...



Satellite pic of the flooding in an article from NASA Earthobservatory: Floods Swamp Southern Thailand, January 13, 2017
Hi-res eye-candy from Himawari-8 satellite. (source: RAMMB-CIRA/JMA, Full Disk AHI Geocolor). Click for pic (file is small). Von Karman vortices visible east of China. Unable to find out the exact time and date, but it's less than 2 days old I think.

Don't miss the "Top 10 Himawari Loops of 2016" by the way.
Davos: Bringing the Arctic to the mountain
Foregrounder | Forget Frontiers, and cut out the Circle. A group of scientists is headed to Davos this week to spread the word about the dangers of the changing Arctic
The Arctic Journal, January 15, 2017 - 5:48am - By Kevin McGwin

A break from the clouds
Decreased cloud cover in the upper atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean as a result of warmer, moister air appears to help prevent run-away temperature increases. For now
The Arctic Journal, January 11, 2017 - 6:48pm - By Kevin McGwin
Quoting 251. RobertWC:


Buckle your chi strap.


A chi strap? Now THAT is a good idea!
Quoting 274. 999Ai2016:

Hi-res eye-candy from Himawari-8 satellite. (source: RAMMB-CIRA/JMA, Full Disk AHI Geocolor). Click for pic (file is small)....

Beautiful catch, 999. Although the weather in Japan right now isn't that comfortable:
Accumulated precipitation in the last 9 hours (as snow).
Average winds (km/h) and streamlines.
Current weather warnings in Japan.

Have a relaxed day, everyone!
Quoting 263. Barefootontherocks:

Satirical art does have it's place. Some art critics, though, would argue satirical art crosses the line when it becomes offensive. I don't care who you are, that image is offensive.
I suppose "some art critics" might argue that, but most thinking members of a free and functioning society would tell you that if a piece of satire doesn't offend, it isn't really satire at all. As Xyrus noted, this may not be the proper forum for the now-deleted image. But as political satire, it was as spot-on as many of SNL's recent opening sketches. (We know those offend the target, because, you know, Twitter.)
Quoting 274. 999Ai2016:

Hi-res eye-candy from Himawari-8 satellite. (source: RAMMB-CIRA/JMA, Full Disk AHI Geocolor). Click for pic (file is small). Von Karman vortices visible east of China. Unable to find out the exact time and date, but it's less than 2 days old I think.

Don't miss the "Top 10 Himawari Loops of 2016" by the way.
That first citation also shows the dramatic difference between life in South Korea and life in North Korea. How do they make all that juice?
(sigh)
Oddly I've been following the forecasts that are reducing impacts for that Friday storm. I have to drive south to north Saturday to return home, 5/14/395/6/360/95. Thursday is too soon - I'm driving down Tuesday. Wednesday or Thursday might be the day they transfer her to Rehab - she has a hairline fracture in her hip, inoperable, and is on IV antibiotics for the UTI that has lingered for weeks after her Shingles infection.

The only change in my travel dates happen if Mom decides that since I'm there, she can say goodbye and be done. This is a distinct possibility.

Sorry if I'm stressing over y'all.

Quoting 268. HurricaneHunterJoe:

GFS Still forecasting multiple storms for pretty much ALL of California next week. Being in Soo Cal, I will post on those storms effecting it.

January Storm # 4- Looks like a weak/moderate storm at best with just the tail end of front coming thru Soo Cal. It is forecast to come in during the daylight hours of Thursday January 19th, with a rain period followed by showers in a 12 hour time frame.





January Storm # 5- January 21-22 A stronger and bigger storm with the possibility of some pre-frontal showers coming onshore Friday 10am PST prior to frontal passage which is forecast to pass through about 2-10pm PST, With a yellow bullseye of precip between 4pm-10pm PST. This storm is stronger and will last longer than Storm # 4 and will have lower snow levels especially up north and possibly I get some down in Soo Cal at my 3,500 foot elevation to make up for not getting any snow on Christmas and New Years Eve's. This will be a Friday January 20th-Saturday January 21st storm.






January Storm # 6-Mostly a January23 storm. Some prefrontal showers possible for Orange, Riverside Counties and heavy rain at lower elevations up north and heavy snow at higher elevation in the Sierra's.Front getting very close to Soo Cal at 4am PST. moderate/heavy rain bullseyes in LA, Orange and NW San Diego County at 10am PST. Front still traversing Soo Cal and looks like my place is in that thin line of blue running down thje middle of San Diego County from south to north, so maybe another chance of snow for me!








Rainfall from these forecast storms in Soo Cal: Looks like 2"-4.5",some nice rain for a 3 day weekend......hope the forecast verifies!









Good morning, WU. Hoping someone can help with something that has me puzzled. Yesterday a new member (welcome to WU!) posted and asked a question about La Nina/PDO/precipitation:

Quoting 236. Lagarto77041:

Please enlighten me, as I am a geologist and not a meteorologist, but it seems like California has been getting more rain in this marginal La Nina winter that last winter when a strong El Nino was in force. I thought that the reverse should be true. Is a strong PDO associated with above normal rainfall in California? I believe that here in Texas, that droughts are usually associated with negative PDO's.


I was hoping someone would respond, as I was curious as to the PDO/ENSO/drought/precip aspect. After spending sometime looking into it, I'm a bit stumped.

First question(s) - in Mr. Henson's blog he referenced a positive PDO since January 2014 and provided a link to JISAO/UW's PDO index page. That shows a positive PDO for that period. The ENSO blog he linked mentions a negative PDO in Aug-Oct 2016, and links a graph. I assume the CPC graph linked uses the NCEI PDO Index, which has the same negative PDO in Aug-Oct 2016, as well as four additional negative PDO months during the 2014-2016 period.

The NCEI PDO Index page states "The NCEI PDO index is based on NOAA's extended reconstruction of SSTs (ERSST Version 4). It is constructed by regressing the ERSST anomalies against the Mantua PDO index for their overlap period, to compute a PDO regression map for the North Pacific ERSST anomalies. The ERSST anomalies are then projected onto that map to compute the NCEI index. The NCEI PDO index closely follows the Mantua PDO index."

The JISAO/UW page states that recent PDO values are "Derived from OI.v2 SST fields". The page also has Mantua as the main contact.

So, which one is more commonly used? Or, is it dependent on the specific use of the PDO? Also, is the JISAO/UW PDO Index the same as the 'Mantua PDO index' mentioned on the NCEI page?

If someone can enlighten me on this it would be most appreciated.

Second question - the linked ENSO blog states "a positive (warm phase) PDO during La Nina is less common than a negative (cold phase) PDO during La Nina". Would this mean the expected resultant weather is less clear? (This kind of gets me back to the OP's original question regarding PDO/La Nina/precip in CA and TX.) I've found info regarding a positive PDO and expected precip, and the same for La Nina, but not for both at the same time.

Again, any clarifications and explanations are appreciated!
Another El Nino season coming... great news....
Neo,
Most thinking members? I will stand my ground and say this: That graphic would offend me if it depicted Bill Clinton, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Barack Obama... you get the picture. And, If I am allowed an opinion, SNL hasn't been worth watching since 1980. 'Bye now.
Quoting 282. CaribBoy:

Another El Nino season coming... great news....
It's okay caribboy, I barely have any rain. I only got a dusting of snow yesterday and last week approximately 4 inches. That's all we got all season. I remember the blizzard of 2016 with 2 feet of snow last year. Id, gladly melt that and send it your way!
Quoting 263. Barefootontherocks:

Xyrus, I saw you after I signed out. Normally I don't see your comments.

Satirical art does have it's place. Some art critics, though, would argue satirical art crosses the line when it becomes offensive. I don't care who you are, that image is offensive. And that's all I will ever have to say to you.


I didn't find the image offensive, but then again it takes a lot to offend me.

Using "offensive" as a benchmark for art is silly, as "offensive" (as you so adequately demonstrate here) is subjective. For example, Chris Ofill did a painting (African Virgin Mary) back in 1996. Many so-called religious people found it offensive because not only did it depict Mary as black (Mary, Jesus, etc. were all Middle Eastern) but it was also made from elephant dung.

"I don't care who you are, that's offensive!" Not really. If you follow one of the denominations of Christianity maybe but otherwise it's just a painting. The Jyllands-Posten Muhammad cartoons were considered by some Muslims to be "offensive". Did you? No, because you aren't Muslim.

You're invoking moral relativism. That's a door that swings both ways.
Quoting 283. Barefootontherocks:

Neo,
Most thinking members? I will stand my ground and say this: That graphic would offend me if it depicted Bill Clinton, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Barack Obama... you get the picture. And, If I am allowed an opinion, SNL hasn't been worth watching since 1980. 'Bye now.
Sorry; I mean "Most clear-thinking members". Mea culpa...
Quoting 278. Neapolitan:

I suppose "some art critics" might argue that, but most thinking members of a free and functioning society would tell you that if a piece of satire doesn't offend, it isn't really satire at all. As Xyrus noted, this may not be the proper forum for the now-deleted image. But as political satire, it was as spot-on as many of SNL's recent opening sketches. (We know those offend the target, because, you know, Twitter.)


It's surprising he has such a thin skin. Urine is supposed to toughen it up. :P

But I agree. If political satire isn't "offending" someone then it's crappy satire. :)
From ABC News:

Tennant Creek deluged with 'one-in-50-year' flood


PHOTO: Flooding in Tennant Creek saw 70mm of rain fall in just 70 minutes. (Supplied: David Curtis Senior)

The normally dry town of Tennant Creek experienced a deluge on Friday night in what meteorologists said was a one-in-50-year flood.

Irena Edwards-Kelly, 26, said she appreciated the rain when it began, but she had now had enough.

"It is good rain and I was loving it, but it gets annoying," she said.

It was the highest floodwaters Ms Edwards-Kelly had ever seen in the town.

Senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin, Graeme King, said the flooding was a significant event.

"It is a one-in-50-year type event," Mr King said.

He said the town experienced 70mm of rain in just 70 minutes from about 6:00pm on Friday night.

Click here to read full article.

----------

See also:

Queensland storm: 'Very dangerous' weather brings heavy rainfall, flash flooding to south-east

Parts of south-east Queensland have been hit by heavy rainfall and flash flooding after severe thunderstorms, described as "very dangerous" by the Bureau of Meteorology, swept through yesterday afternoon.

BOM said 68 millimetres of rain was recorded falling in Carindale in 30 minutes, and 80 to 90mm in an hour in Ipswich, west of Brisbane.

Mount Glorious received 67mm in 30 minutes, and Chandler had 58mm.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 229. bwi:



Important to caution that while Arctic ice has been a very steady decline, decade after decade, Antarctic ice levels have fluctuated wildly over the last couple years, with record highs in 2013 and record lows this year. People who know more than I can explain better.

I think most expectations were for MORE Antarctic ice in the next decade or two, due to fresh surface water (which freezes easier) coming off melting ice shelves and accelerating glacier outflow. Sort of like the Greenland melt that has caused the cold spot in the North Atlantic.

But this year, for some reason, maybe El Nino before, warmth is somehow getting to the Southern Ocean and a swing to very low sea ice levels.

"I think most expectations were for MORE Antarctic ice in the next decade or two, due to fresh surface water (which freezes easier) coming off melting ice shelves and accelerating glacier outflow."

I'm glad you mentioned this, as this was my understanding as well. So the decrease in Antarctic ice has been a bit of a surprise. If you know of any articles or blogs on the subject, I'd be interested in reading them.
Another great video by Prince Ea. 
See also 'Dear Future Generations: Sorry' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DII9M6ZauYk

Quoting 281. LAbonbon:

Good morning, WU. Hoping someone can help with something that has me puzzled. Yesterday a new member (welcome to WU!) posted and asked a question about La Nina/PDO/precipitation:



I was hoping someone would respond, as I was curious as to the PDO/ENSO/drought/precip aspect. After spending sometime looking into it, I'm a bit stumped.

First question(s) - in Mr. Henson's blog he referenced a positive PDO since January 2014 and provided a link to JISAO/UW's PDO index page. That shows a positive PDO for that period. The ENSO blog he linked mentions a negative PDO in Aug-Oct 2016, and links a graph. I assume the CPC graph linked uses the NCEI PDO Index, which has the same negative PDO in Aug-Oct 2016, as well as four additional negative PDO months during the 2014-2016 period.

The NCEI PDO Index page states "The NCEI PDO index is based on NOAA's extended reconstruction of SSTs (ERSST Version 4). It is constructed by regressing the ERSST anomalies against the Mantua PDO index for their overlap period, to compute a PDO regression map for the North Pacific ERSST anomalies. The ERSST anomalies are then projected onto that map to compute the NCEI index. The NCEI PDO index closely follows the Mantua PDO index."

The JISAO/UW page states that recent PDO values are "Derived from OI.v2 SST fields". The page also has Mantua as the main contact.

So, which one is more commonly used? Or, is it dependent on the specific use of the PDO? Also, is the JISAO/UW PDO Index the same as the 'Mantua PDO index' mentioned on the NCEI page?

If someone can enlighten me on this it would be most appreciated.

Second question - the linked ENSO blog states "a positive (warm phase) PDO during La Nina is less common than a negative (cold phase) PDO during La Nina". Would this mean the expected resultant weather is less clear? (This kind of gets me back to the OP's original question regarding PDO/La Nina/precip in CA and TX.) I've found info regarding a positive PDO and expected precip, and the same for La Nina, but not for both at the same time.

Again, any clarifications and explanations are appreciated!


See here for the effect the PDO has on ENSO cycle



In essence we have two processes in conflict with one another. The positive PDO generally enhances atmospheric circulation patterns associated with El Nino, the negative PDO enhances La Nina atmospheric circulation patterns.

The positive PDO weakens La Nina conditions. Apparently the atmosphere is "in between" states in that La Nina-like effects are being observed in some regions (the SE in the fall for example) but the PDO is "winning" in the SW region.

What may be going on is that La Nina was weakened by the positive PDO, and the atmosphere never fully responded.

Based upon my limited understanding - mind you.
292. bwi
Xyrus and Neo,
Over the years you have both made assumptions about me, particularly about my stance on global warming, my religion, and my politics. All your assumptions have been incorrect. I posted this before and I will say it again. Whether or not you like the U.S. president, the office he holds demands respect. The U.S. system of government provides for change if a president becomes unacceptable to the country.

Xyrus, Moral relativism? You got it bad. Yes, the Muslim art you mention was offensive. As/if that type of carp becomes more and more socially acceptable, mankind will become more divided than ever, and global warming won't matter because we will destroy each other with hatred.
294. bwi
12z GFS continues to have a wicked storm crossing Greenland into the Fram Strait, then wandering back and forth across the north pole, eventually heading toward the Russian side.

This will cause more craziness with sea ice situation on the Atlantic side.

Quoting 261. Barefootontherocks:

An ugly cartoon depicting Donald Trump as a screaming baby dressed in a dirty diaper with flies around it is not art. The image you posted mocked Donald Trump and your comment mocked the words I posted. And that is all I will ever have to say to you.
(screen grab added)



The image I posted was most certainly art. And, art is not singular, it's "The Arts" which include many different things; paintings, drawings, writing, dance, comedy, plays, (you know, performing arts). You yourself said; "Art doesn't make you think. It makes you feel."

241. Barefootontherocks
9:05 PM CST on January 14, 2017
0 +
Art doesn't make you think. It makes you feel.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: April 28, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 22355

Obviously, what I posted made you feel something. Therefore, it is art as you defined it.
Quoting 293. Barefootontherocks:

Xyrus and Neo,
Over the years you have both made assumptions about me, particularly about my stance on global warming, my religion, and my politics. All your assumptions have been incorrect. I posted this before and I will say it again. Whether or not you like the U.S. president, the office he holds demands respect. The U.S. system of government provides for change if a president becomes unacceptable to the country.

Xyrus, Moral relativism? You got it bad. Yes, the Muslim art you mention was offensive. As/if that type of carp becomes more and more socially acceptable, mankind will become more divided than ever, and global warming won't matter because we will destroy each other with hatred.

I whole heartedly agree that the office of POTUS demands respect. I am anxiously awaiting the day when the incoming occupant realizes that.
Only people benefiting from this horrid weather pattern is California.
Ever wunder why we never get wu polls here in January ?

Why is dat?





Link

"Peace will enter when hate is gone." -Joe Wiliams
Quoting 296. ACSeattle:


I whole heartedly agree that the office of POTUS demands respect. I am anxiously awaiting the day when the incoming occupant realizes that.

That was artfully written.
Quoting 236. Lagarto77041:

Please enlighten me, as I am a geologist and not a meteorologist, but it seems like California has been getting more rain in this marginal La Nina winter that last winter when a strong El Nino was in force. I thought that the reverse should be true. Is a strong PDO associated with above normal rainfall in California? I believe that here in Texas, that droughts are usually associated with negative PDO's.

@LaBonBon

Here is an explanation from the NWS about why precipitation skipped CA last winter:

2015-2016 Strong El Nino Event Recap by the NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA Office
Possible Explanations for The Atypical Strong El Nino Precipitation Pattern

Although the Nino 3.4 region SST anomaly was as strong as the anomaly in 1997-98, the distribution of warmer water was not similar. In 1997-98 the water in the eastern equatorial Pacific was warmer than in 2015-16 when the area of warm water spread further west. As a result, storms and convection were further west in 2015-16, possibly impacting the jet stream and pushing many of the storms into northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The graphic below shows the average outgoing longwave radiation departure from normal for Dec-Jan-Feb 1997-98 vs. 2015-16. Note how the red area - depicting below normal outgoing longwave radiation - as a result of clouds and storms - is shifted further west towards the dateline in 2015-16.



The next two images show a reanalysis of the composite mean jet stream across the eastern Pacific for January to March 1983 and 1998 (top image) and January to March 2016 (bottom image). 1983 and 1998 were two of the strongest previous El Nino episodes since 1950. Notice in the top image (1983 and 1998 mean winds) that the wind vector was such that the storm tracks were focused into central and southern California. In the second image (2016 mean winds) the wind vector was forced northward into the Pacific Northwest and northern California due to a ridge of high pressure off the west coast of Baja Mexico, of which this ridge might have been enhanced by the very warm ocean conditions west of Baja (the area of warm water was commonly referred to in the media as "The Blob"). This resulted in the storm track generally staying north of southern California.





Finally, one question that can be asked is what impact the very warm global surface temperatures had on the behavior of this El Nino. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information reported the combined average temperature over the global and land ocean surfaces for February 2016 was the highest for February in the 137-year period of record. This not only was the highest for February in the 1880-2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.33 C / 0.59 F, but it surpassed the all-time monthly record set just two months ago in December 2015 by 0.09 C (0.16 F).

Did the relative abundance of warmer than average surface temperatures - especially in the far northern latitudes - impact the favored position of the polar and tropical jet streams? How will climate change affect future El Nino events? It's important not to assume that the El Nino events of the future will behave the same. But there is much to learn about how changing background conditions impact such atmospheric oscillations as ENSO through the remainder of this century.

Can anyone help me with embedding? After I copy an embed link, how do I paste it into WU blogs? TIA
"Architecture in the coldest, driest, windiest reaches of our planet is getting snazzier."

How Antarctic bases went from wooden huts to sci-fi chic



Quoting 300. ChiThom:

Link

"Peace will enter when hate is gone." -Joe Wiliams

Niiiice. Spent the morning listening to WBRH live online. It's out of Baton Rouge and every Sunday morning they have jazz from the 1930s-1950s. Wonderful way to spend a few hours. The show had just ended when I clicked your link...more of the same :)

Do you realize that the next song YouTube autoloaded after yours was Joe Williams, 'Get Out of My Life Woman'? Made me smile.
Quoting 236. Lagarto77041:



Please enlighten me, as I am a geologist and not a meteorologist, but it seems like California has been getting more rain in this marginal La Nina winter that last winter when a strong El Nino was in force. I thought that the reverse should be true. Is a strong PDO associated with above normal rainfall in California? I believe that here in Texas, that droughts are usually associated with negative PDO's.




In regards to Texas and drought, it really depends upon El Nino more than the PDO, although the PDO does have an influence.



How Reliable is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for Predicting Precipitation in Texas? Comparing the Precipitation Record for Two Stations in Texas between 1900 and 2013
Cepeda, J. C.
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2014, abstract #H11G-0931

Abstract

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), which has been correlated to weather patterns in North America, was compared to precipitation variations for two stations in Texas - Amarillo (mean annual precipitation= 509 mm) in the Texas Panhandle and San Antonio (mean= 742 mm) in south Texas. Negative values of the PDO have generally been correlated with drought periods in the southern United States, including Texas, and positive values of the PDO correlate with periods of above average precipitation. Using a smoothed time-averaged plot of the PDO index, the PDO record was divided into 7 time periods characterized by either positive or negative, as follows: 1900-1934 - neutral, 1935-1944 - positive, 1945-1977 - negative, 1978-2003 - positive, 2004-2007 - positive, and 2008 - 2013 - negative values. For each of these periods the mean annual precipitation was calculated and compared to the values of the PDO index. A correlation was considered positive if above average precipitation occurred during positive PDO values, or if below average precipitation occurred during a period when the PDO values were generally negative. For Amarillo, a positive correlation was noted for all periods except 1978-1997. For the San Antonio data, a positive correlation was noted for all periods except 1998-2003. Given the prevailing negative values of the PDO, 1998-2003 should have been a time of decreased rainfall, but instead the mean annual rainfall was more than 127 mm above the long-term mean. One possible explanation for the increased rainfall is that 1997-1998 was a time of the strongest recent El Nino and 2002-2003 was a time of moderate El Nino conditions - both of which tend to produce above average precipitation in Texas. Notable rainfall amounts in San Antonio during this period are the 459 mm recorded during the month of Oct. 1998 and 430 mm in July 2002. These results suggest that the PDO cannot be used , by itself, to predict precipitation trends in Texas.
Quoting 299. Patrap:

Ever wunder why we never get wu polls here in January ?

Why is dat?







Dr. daddyjames (or should it be 'Professor daddyjames'?) - re: posts #291 and #302. Thanks for responding. I hadn't seen the CLIMAS/UofA PDO link before - so a positive PDO weakens La Nina. Regarding the El Nino discussion you shared - hadn't seen the writeup I don't think, but the upshot of it was discussed quite a bit, so I was peripherally aware of the content.

Any thoughts on the two differing PDO indices? That's where I got truly stumped.
Quoting 307. washingaway:






Greetings..The eastern half will likely get some rough weather come February. Temps at the 10 mb level are rising fast, a sign of a SSW event.

312. elioe
Peculiar temperature distribution coming.



Now it's somewhat below average temps here, but in two days it should turn to above average. GFS thinks above average temps should remain until January 31, but ECMWF disagrees.
Quoting 309. LAbonbon:

Dr. daddyjames (or should it be 'Professor daddyjames'?) - re: posts #291 and #302. Thanks for responding. I hadn't seen the CLIMAS/UofA PDO link before - so a positive PDO weakens La Nina. Regarding the El Nino discussion you shared - hadn't seen the writeup I don't think, but the upshot of it was discussed quite a bit, so I was peripherally aware of the content.

Any thoughts on the two differing PDO indices? That's where I got truly stumped.


I have no full understanding in that regards. It may be that they are using different datasources? Or that the calculation is complex in that other influences on SSTs, ENSO-related and global warming, are removed before calculating the PDO index. But again, that is pure speculation on my part.

It is an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis.
Quoting 293. Barefootontherocks:

Xyrus and Neo,
Over the years you have both made assumptions about me, particularly about my stance on global warming, my religion, and my politics. All your assumptions have been incorrect. I posted this before and I will say it again. Whether or not you like the U.S. president, the office he holds demands respect. The U.S. system of government provides for change if a president becomes unacceptable to the country.

Xyrus, Moral relativism? You got it bad. Yes, the Muslim art you mention was offensive. As/if that type of carp becomes more and more socially acceptable, mankind will become more divided than ever, and global warming won't matter because we will destroy each other with hatred.


Assume? I respond to what you write. If what you write doesn't accurately reflect your beliefs, leanings, etc. then why write it in the first place?

You used YOUR moral judgement to claim that a cartoon was universally offensive and not art. If that were true then everyone on here would have agreed with your assessment, which they did not. So clearly, it was not universally offensive just like the aforementioned art pieces I pointed out were not "universally offensive" and therefore were not art.

I've got what bad exactly? You hoisted your moral judgment for all to see. Relative to your standards, you found the cartoon offense. That's perfectly fine, but it's incredibly naive to think that people won't disagree with you. If you can't handle people disagreeing with you, then don't say anything.

What you propose is the road to authoritarian oppression, and is common in strictly controlled regimes. China, for example, maintains strict control over what their populations sees, reads, etc. so that their people won't be "offended" and be tempted by "illicit influences". Who draws that line? Who gets to judge? Who is the absolute moral authority? Who would you propose to be the Ministry of Truth?

In regards to the office of the presidency: It doesn't matter how clean you keep your toilet. If you crap in it, it's still going to stink.

Respect, trust, etc. are not given. They are earned.
315. beell
I don't know much about art meteorology, but I know what I like...
Quoting 304. Xandra:

"Architecture in the coldest, driest, windiest reaches of our planet is getting snazzier."

How Antarctic bases went from wooden huts to sci-fi chic






The stories of the early Antarctic researchers...you'd have to be really dedicated to your craft to do what they did.

I always have plenty of respect for those scientists who brave difficult and very unpleasant conditions in pursuit of their research, from the volcanologists in a heat suit dangling over an open lava pit to the botanist covered in numerous insect bites in the deep jungle. If got to have both balls and brains to do what they do.
Quoting 305. LAbonbon:


Niiiice. Spent the morning listening to WBRH live online. It's out of Baton Rouge and every Sunday morning they have jazz from the 1930s-1950s. Wonderful way to spend a few hours. The show had just ended when I clicked your link...more of the same :)

Do you realize that the next song YouTube autoloaded after yours was Joe Williams, 'Get Out of My Life Woman'? Made me smile.


When I listened, the next song was "Going to Chicago Blues" by Williams and Basie. They randomize those entries.
Quoting 293. Barefootontherocks:

Xyrus and Neo,
Over the years you have both made assumptions about me, particularly about my stance on global warming, my religion, and my politics. All your assumptions have been incorrect.
I know nothing of either your religion or your politics, nor do I care to. Now, while I can't pretend to speak for Xyrus, I've certainly made no assumptions about you or your thoughts on climate change except for those you've repeatedly expressed in this forum. And based on years of your comments on that subject, I think I have a pretty good idea where you stand.
Quoting 293. Barefootontherocks:

Whether or not you like the U.S. president, the office he holds demands respect.
The office of the President does indeed demand respect. But the person about to be seated in that office has to earn it--and The Man In The Golden Tower is a L-O-N-G way from achieving that.
Quoting 293. Barefootontherocks:
The U.S. system of government provides for change if a president becomes unacceptable to the country.
And we can all thank the Founders for that, for it appears increasingly likely that particular mechanism will be churning to life, and soon...
Quoting 282. CaribBoy:

Another El Nino season coming... great news....


We getting good rain in Soo Cal with La Nina......Maybe La Nina is gonna be good for rain now?
Quoting 310. Patrap:






Your dog picture is much better than my dog picture. But, can your dog do this?
Quoting 319. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We getting good rain in Soo Cal with La Nina......Maybe La Nina is gonna be good for rain now?


have you not been reading below? ;)
Happy Birthday Pat!
Quoting 319. HurricaneHunterJoe:



We getting good rain in Soo Cal with La Nina......Maybe La Nina is gonna be good for rain now?

Every graphic I've seen for La Nina shows your area as either wetter in winter, or no change...so maybe this one is different? If the recent El Nino's effects on CA can be different than expected, why not La Nina?

But then again, there's the positive PDO, which weakens La Nina...
Quoting 321. daddyjames:



have you not been reading below? ;)


I don't do three letter abbreviations well : )
Quoting 322. washingaway:

Happy Birthday Pat!


Why thank you ..

Very glad to be on the Planet, still.

Quoting 320. washingaway:


Your dog picture is much better than my dog picture. But, can your dog do this?




I have 3, 47 day young Shepherd pups in my lap currently, so u got me there easily.


Wit SHARP teefhs and paws too.







Quoting 316. Xyrus2000:



The stories of the early Antarctic researchers...you'd have to be really dedicated to your craft to do what they did.

I always have plenty of respect for those scientists who brave difficult and very unpleasant conditions in pursuit of their research, from the volcanologists in a heat suit dangling over an open lava pit to the botanist covered in numerous insect bites in the deep jungle. If got to have both balls and brains to do what they do.


When I was crossing the Atlantic aboard a Naval Vessel in 84'..I read a book about the early pole shipping expeditions.

Those who made it back were changed forever, but every one who did said it was worth every hardship for the knowledge gained.

That stays with one, and I have at times fallen back to their thoughts when life came at me with a arrow and Hearse.
"We cannot allow our history to be written by the wicked, greedy and loony."
Quoting 290. no1der:


Wonderful.

From the video:

"We can not allow our history to be
written by the wicked, greedy, and loony.
It is our duty to protect Mother Nature
from those who refuse to see her beauty.
Call me crazy,
but I believe we should have the right
to eat food that's safe.
With ingredients we can pronounce.
Drink water that is clean.
Marvel at trees. Breathe air free of toxins.
These are natural rights.
Not things that can be bargained for in Congress."


Full text of his words in the video are available here.
Good Afternoon. After enjoying the last several days of mild temps in North Florida (versus the icing and cold issues in other parts of Conus), I went into the yard today to blow off and pick up the last of the Fall leaves to clear the yard and grass for the upcoming Spring. In combing through the property, Azalea buds are sprouting in several places confirming my Wife's recent allergy issues (which I thought she was making up due to it being January). Another burst of Spring/Fall type temps in the middle of Winter and the flowers are on the move thinking that Winter is already over. More frequent event here in recent years when they used to bloom in May and have been blooming more and more early recently with a burst in February about 3 years ago and an early-March last year; this is the first time I have seen the bloom in mid-January; understandable because of this unseasonably warm patch of weather and living in Florida but quite the recent trend for these parts ....................Just Sayin.
And happy B-day to Patrick; we don't always see eye to eye but he is a respected member of this Blog and I have enjoyed his posts and comments over the years...............Many more years to You.
I thank you too, wmwb,


I edge on those I feel add the most daily and encourage them to be all they can be....and sometimes it comes off edgy though.

It is a bad habit, as we all a werk in progress
Wow, this is a first - there's a raging debate going on, and I have been talking about the weather/climate. Who'd thunk that?

:D
Quoting 320. washingaway:


Your dog picture is much better than my dog picture. But, can your dog do this?



My dog, a white shepard, golden mix, could noiselessly slip a plate off the table, and carry it horizontally without dropping anything to a desired spot at the other end of the house.

And when I got the poodle puppy I remember instruction from the older dog which seemed in dog communication to boil down to "Over here.. they never look here".

Dogs that can master doorknobs and opening the fridge door are more alarming.
Quoting 329. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon. After enjoying the last several days of mild temps in North Florida (versus the icing and cold issues in other parts of Conus), I went into the yard today to blow off and pick up the last of the Fall leaves to clear the yard and grass for the upcoming Spring. In combing through the property, Azalea buds are sprouting in several places confirming my Wife's recent allergy issues (which I thought she was making up due to it being January). Another burst of Spring/Fall type temps in the middle of Winter and the flowers are on the move thinking that Winter is already over. More frequent event here in recent years when they used to bloom in May and have been blooming more and more early recently with a burst in February about 3 years ago and an early-March last year; this is the first time I have seen the bloom in mid-January; understandable because of this unseasonably warm patch of weather and living in Florida but quite the recent trend for these parts ....................Just Sayin.


A few azaleas break dormancy in the DC area if there are late fall/early winter warm spells and bloom early. This especially happened last year in December 2015.
That's the difference between you and at least some of us, Neo and Xyrus, as you both have just stated, and to basically quote you both...

"Respect, trust, etc. are not given. They are earned."

"The office of the President does indeed demand respect. But the person about to be seated in that office has to earn it--. . ."

I was raised differently. I was raised to treat everyone with respect and a general level of trust upon first meeting and engaging with them in any activity. They can then lose my respect and trust by their actions. I.E., I don't automatically assume everyone is beneath my respect before they earn it.

In Trump's case, we're talking about, or at least should be talking about, what he actually does as President, not by everything that's preceded that. We all know that assuming the Presidency of the United States changes a person... in both good and bad ways... and I'm willing to start things this coming Friday with a "let's see" attitude, not an "I already know" one. That just seems to be the smartest, most workable, way for me to do things.

In today's world, no one can earn anyone's respect unless they simply agree with them about everything, and it's a non-functional "working" relationship, as nothing of any consequence can be accomplished while people are still working on earning the others respect.

That's the big difference, in part, why Obama was not incessantly trashed/threatened/rioted about, etc., by the general public after he first won the Presidency, even though those opposed to him figured he'd be a bad, divisive president when he was first elected. They still gave him a chance, even though it appears they turned out to be right... our country is as deeply divided as it's been since the late 60's.

Could say a ton more about that, and the idea of assumption vs. proof, but, as always, this blog isn't supposed to be about such things. But as you both mentioned the same thing, which I believe is wrong on both a human level and a functional level, I feel I have the right to challenge your already-posted assumptions on the nature of "respect".

Jo
Quoting 327. Patrap:



When I was crossing the Atlantic aboard a Naval Vessel in 84'..I read a book about the early pole shipping expeditions.

Those who made it back were changed forever, but every one who did said it was worth every hardship for the knowledge gained.

That stays with one, and I have at times fallen back to their thoughts when life came at me with a arrow and Hearse.


Quoting 332. daddyjames:

Wow, this is a first - there's a raging debate going on, and I have been talking about the weather/climate. Who'd thunk that?

:D


I haven't read back on all the blogs, but what are we fighting about today?? I'm in a bad mood and I would feel better if I could insult somebody.

As my old Auntie used to say, "If you don't have something nice to say about somebody, take a seat right next to me!!"
Quoting 337. Grothar:



I haven't read back on all the blogs, but what are we fighting about today?? I'm in a bad mood and I would feel better if I could insult somebody.

As my old Auntie used to say, "If you don't have something nice about somebody, take a seat right next to me!!"


Art, Assumptions, Respect. At least its not Climate Change.
In terms of the upcoming week, I am not going to be on here on Inauguration Day, out of respect for the Blog, because I suspect that some heated comments might come forth on both sides of the equation because of frustration. My personal candidate of choice out of the entire pack before the primaries was John Kasich and I lost interest/hope after the primaries when I saw where everything was headed. Gonna make good on my promise to stick to the weather in 2017 which includes raising concerns, on topic on this particular Blog, over any candidate or current member of Congress or Executive/Agency heads who oppose the Paris Treaty or efforts to curb Co2 emissions (siding with the science on this issue).

Everyone have a safe weather weekend and stay off the roads unless you have to be out where icing is an issue.
341. bwi
Quoting 289. LAbonbon:


"I think most expectations were for MORE Antarctic ice in the next decade or two, due to fresh surface water (which freezes easier) coming off melting ice shelves and accelerating glacier outflow."

I'm glad you mentioned this, as this was my understanding as well. So the decrease in Antarctic ice has been a bit of a surprise. If you know of any articles or blogs on the subject, I'd be interested in reading them.


James Hansen is my source on ice melt scenarios. Most of his stuff isn't fully proven out, and there's a fair amount of honest skepticism, particularly on doubling times and Atlantic superstorms,

On the other hand, he has been right about pretty much everything so far, and the latest work on ice shelf collapse dynamics and on WAIS grounding line retreat and EAIS grounding line warm water channeling, lends additional support.

video link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JP-cRqCQRc8
transcripthttp://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20160 322_IrreparableHarm.pdf
journal paper: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/
Quoting 336. Grothar:



In our family there was an early explorer in the North Pole in the 1800's. His name was Carl Koldewey. There were a number of books written about him. While most were written in German, I don't know if any were ever translated into English. I believe there is an Island in the Arctic named after him.

Happy Birthday, Pat. Don't forget, while you were crossing on that ship, I was flying over you in a nice warm plane. LOL Can you believe it was 33 years ago we were in Norway? It seems like yesterday.


Thanks Sensei'

I hope it it was a G-4 instead of a C-141 Starliner.


Dem tings are hugely big.


Really, 33?

Lordy,..

U can tell it twas late in the Exercise here, note the iso toners, bandana, painters cap, Laplander knife recently aquired. A frozen Pizza,


And the most northern brewed beer on the Planet, A mack-o


Gawd I was handsome .

:P



Quoting 272. Uragani:


That means that solid material dumping into Sea/ocean contributes in Sea-level rise. Interesting.


I'm not with you on this. Where do you read this from?
Again, check the order of magnitude.
Quoting 335. flibinite:



Although your comment was not directed to me, I have a response. Your comments are that of a Trump supporter disguised as a philosophical point of view. Respect? Give him a chance? Hope that being president will change him? Let see, he has openly supported torture, wants to dismantle the EPA, has bragged about sexually assaulting women, said he could shoot somebody and his support would rise, loosely expressed using nuclear weapons, tweets and acts like an inmature teenager, is a bigot, praised dictators, .....I could go on and on. But you say let's give a chance. To do what?
From The Climate News Network:

Coral bleaching could spark annual reef havoc


Severe coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef in February 2016.
Image: Courtesy of Oregon State University via Wikimedia Commons

Before 2100, almost every reef in the world will suffer severe coral bleaching annually unless fossil fuel consumption is sharply reduced.

LONDON, 14 January, 2017 – Some time this century, if humans go on burning fossil fuels at the present rate, severe bleaching will hit 99% of coral reefs every year. Coral bleaching happens when the organisms become uncomfortably hot, and reject the algae on which their lives ultimately depend.

Since it takes a reef five years to recover from any one bleaching event, the consequences for some of the world’s richest ecosystems could be catastrophic. But catastrophe could be delayed. Drastic cuts in emissions reductions could give reefs an average of another 11 years before they start bleaching every year, according to new research.

Right now, the world’s reefs are caught up in the longest global coral bleaching event ever recorded. It began in 2014, and could go on well into 2017, according to the journal Scientific Reports.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 335. flibinite:

That's the difference between you and at least some of us, Neo and Xyrus, as you both have just stated, and to basically quote you both...

"Respect, trust, etc. are not given. They are earned."

"The office of the President does indeed demand respect. But the person about to be seated in that office has to earn it--. . ."

I was raised differently. I was raised to treat everyone with respect and a general level of trust upon first meeting and engaging with them in any activity. They can then lose my respect and trust by their actions. I.E., I don't automatically assume everyone is beneath my respect before they earn it.

In Trump's case, we're talking about, or at least should be talking about, what he actually does as President, not by everything that's preceded that. We all know that assuming the Presidency of the United States changes a person... in both good and bad ways... and I'm willing to start things this coming Friday with a "let's see" attitude, not an "I already know" one. That just seems to be the smartest, most workable, way for me to do things.

In today's world, no one can earn anyone's respect unless they simply agree with them about everything, and it's a non-functional "working" relationship, as nothing of any consequence can be accomplished while people are still working on earning the others respect.

That's the big difference, in part, why Obama was not incessantly trashed/threatened/rioted about, etc., by the general public after he first won the Presidency, even though those opposed to him figured he'd be a bad, divisive president when he was first elected. They still gave him a chance, even though it appears they turned out to be right... our country is as deeply divided as it's been since the late 60's.

Could say a ton more about that, and the idea of assumption vs. proof, but, as always, this blog isn't supposed to be about such things. But as you both mentioned the same thing, which I believe is wrong on both a human level and a functional level, I feel I have the right to challenge your already-posted assumptions on the nature of "respect".

Jo


Jo,

I will respectfully disagree with your assessment. Protests and demonstrations were waged against Obama immediately after he was elected. Individuals maintained that he was "not my President" throughout both his terms. The stated goal of Republicans in both the House and Senate - immediately after he was elected - was to obstruct and fight and "make him a one term President".

In regards to Trump and respect:

As a President-elect he has had more than enough opportunity to bring the country together. Yet he continues to undermine the very governmental agencies he will have to work with to ensure our national security, attacks people personally that voice any opinion/statement that he determines is not favorable (which they have a right to do], and is dismissive of media who are critical of him and the fact that he has not done anything to prevent any "conflicts of interest".
There are on-going questions of foreign government influence and/or collusion in the election which should outrage any American (regardless of political affiliation].

I personally won't be waiting for Trump to change his spots. He is who he is - out for himself and not for anyone else. I - for one - cannot respect that.

Quoting 345. Xandra:

From The Climate News Network:

Coral bleaching could spark annual reef havoc


Severe coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef in February 2016.
Image: Courtesy of Oregon State University via Wikimedia Commons

Before 2100, almost every reef in the world will suffer severe coral bleaching annually unless fossil fuel consumption is sharply reduced.

LONDON, 14 January, 2017 – Some time this century, if humans go on burning fossil fuels at the present rate, severe bleaching will hit 99% of coral reefs every year. Coral bleaching happens when the organisms become uncomfortably hot, and reject the algae on which their lives ultimately depend.

Since it takes a reef five years to recover from any one bleaching event, the consequences for some of the world’s richest ecosystems could be catastrophic. But catastrophe could be delayed. Drastic cuts in emissions reductions could give reefs an average of another 11 years before they start bleaching every year, according to new research.

Right now, the world’s reefs are caught up in the longest global coral bleaching event ever recorded. It began in 2014, and could go on well into 2017, according to the journal Scientific Reports.

Click here to read full article.



Quoting 343. EmsiNasklug:



I'm not with you on this. Where do you read this from?
Again, check the order of magnitude.

I think Mother Teresa said it well: "We ourselves feel that what we are doing is just a drop in the ocean. But the ocean would be less because of that missing drop." Every cubic foot of land that falls or is washed into the ocean displaces a cubic foot of water and raises sea level by that tiny amount -- but there are a lot of cubic feet of land sliding and washing into the ocean.
Quoting 346. daddyjames:

<

Thank you for picking up where I left off. I wanted to say everything you just said, but I'm on an iPad and I don't write as elegant as you do.
I'm jumping on the bandwagon a little late, but HAPPY BIRTHDAY PAT and many more.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CST SUN JAN 15 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 7 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC019-049-059-081-083-095-105-137-171-235-253-26 5-267-271-299-
307-319-323-327-353-385-399-411-413-417-431-435-4 41-451-463-465-
507-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0007.170115T2050Z-170116T0400Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN
COKE COLEMAN CONCHO
CROCKETT EDWARDS GILLESPIE
IRION JONES KERR
KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO
MASON MAVERICK MCCULLOCH
MENARD NOLAN REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON
TAYLOR TOM GREEN UVALDE
VAL VERDE ZAVALA
$$


ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...
Quoting 349. washingaway:

elegantly.

just teasing then.
Happy B-day Pat.

Quoting 337. Grothar:



I haven't read back on all the blogs, but what are we fighting about today?? I'm in a bad mood and I would feel better if I could insult somebody.

As my old Auntie used to say, "If you don't have something nice to say about somebody, take a seat right next to me!!"


I could go get TropicalAnalyst onto the blog and you could insult him. :-)
Quoting 343. EmsiNasklug:



I'm not with you on this. Where do you read this from?
Again, check the order of magnitude.


That's common sense, no reading required. Put something into water, it increases its level; take something out it decreases it. By how much? That depend on the volume of matter (not just water) dumped into seas/oceans.
Quoting 352. ChiThom:


I can take it, I have old thick skin.
When it came to delivering newspapers on a -22 degree day, my Mom always said, "You must have a thick skin..." to be able to take it. How right she was! :-J
Quoting 335. flibinite:

That's the difference between you and at least some of us, Neo and Xyrus, as you both have just stated, and to basically quote you both...

"Respect, trust, etc. are not given. They are earned."

"The office of the President does indeed demand respect. But the person about to be seated in that office has to earn it--. . ."

I was raised differently. I was raised to treat everyone with respect and a general level of trust upon first meeting and engaging with them in any activity. They can then lose my respect and trust by their actions. I.E., I don't automatically assume everyone is beneath my respect before they earn it.


Do you KNOW who Trump is? He isn't some random no-name person fresh off the boat. He has a long long history of narcissistic sociopathic behavior. The IRS even has rules designed specifically because of actions Trump took to avoid paying taxes for nearly two decades. And that isn't even getting into the numerous cases of fraud, discrimination, etc.

There's nothing about the presidency that will change the fundamental nature of someone like Trump. Indeed, one only needs to look at his behavior to verify it's the same old Trump.

Quoting 335. flibinite:
In Trump's case, we're talking about, or at least should be talking about, what he actually does as President, not by everything that's preceded that. We all know that assuming the Presidency of the United States changes a person... in both good and bad ways... and I'm willing to start things this coming Friday with a "let's see" attitude, not an "I already know" one.


Then you're lying to yourself. He refuses to divulge his business interests. He refuses to release his tax returns. He refuses to divest his business interests. He's hired cronies, people with clear conflicts of interest, and people who are woefully under-qualified for his administration. These aren't ideological differences. For $DIETY's sake, he put Perry in charge of the Department of Energy. In what reality does that even make the slightest bit of sense?

Then, of course, there's his list of policies which run the gamut of unrealistic to outright stupidity.

Quoting 335. flibinite:
That just seems to be the smartest, most workable, way for me to do things.

In today's world, no one can earn anyone's respect unless they simply agree with them about everything, and it's a non-functional "working" relationship, as nothing of any consequence can be accomplished while people are still working on earning the others respect.


It's not the smartest. Trump's history has been in the public eye for decades. Ignoring that and assuming Trump will be an intelligent, compassionate, empathic leader is like assuming Charles Mason would make a good choice to run an orphanage.

Again, this has nothing to do with ideology. There were other republican candidates who have at least earned my respect from their long years of dedication. I may disagree with them on ideological grounds, but that doesn't mean I have no respect for them.

Trump, on the other hand, only has a long history of serving himself.

Quoting 335. flibinite:
That's the big difference, in part, why Obama was not incessantly trashed/threatened/rioted about, etc., by the general public after he first won the Presidency, even though those opposed to him figured he'd be a bad, divisive president when he was first elected.


What?????? Were you even on this planet after he was elected? Faux News and the republican right declared open war on his presidency and did everything possible to disrupt and destroy everything he touched. He was a Kenyan Muslim, he wasn't an American citizen, he was a socialist/communist, so on and so forth endlessly throughout his administration.

Quoting 335. flibinite:
They still gave him a chance, even though it appears they turned out to be right... our country is as deeply divided as it's been since the late 60's.


First, that is false hyperbole. Second, that divisiveness wasn't due to Obama.

Quoting 335. flibinite:
Could say a ton more about that, and the idea of assumption vs. proof, but, as always, this blog isn't supposed to be about such things. But as you both mentioned the same thing, which I believe is wrong on both a human level and a functional level, I feel I have the right to challenge your already-posted assumptions on the nature of "respect".

Jo


Feel free to challenge, but your arguments are weak. You don't suddenly give someone with a long history of dishonesty and questionable behavior respect and trust just because they now hold a position of power.
Quoting 353. Astrometeor:

Happy B-day Pat.



I could go get TropicalAnalyst onto the blog and you could insult him. :-)


That's too easy :)
Quoting 357. Xyrus2000:

"Trump's history has been in the public eye for decades. Ignoring that and assuming Trump will be an intelligent, compassionate, empathic leader is like assuming Charles Mason would make a good choice to run an orphanage."

That's priceless!
Thats pretty huge, La Nina gone already.
Quoting 339. Patrap:




I still think you underestimate the termites in this picture.
Quoting 340. weathermanwannabe:

(snip) In terms of the upcoming week, I am not going to be on here on Inauguration Day, out of respect for the Blog, because I suspect that some heated comments might come forth on both sides of the equation because of frustration.




It's hard to avoid making political comments this year! I like most of the folks on this blog, regardless of political stripes, so I try to avoid conflict with any but the most warped views... and even then, I usually wait for others to comment, and then I voice my support with a "plus". My parents held the opinion that the best way to lose friends was to argue over religion and/or politics. I lost a friend eight years ago because he insisted that the president-elect was hanging-out with terrorists. (Bil Ayers)... I was a member of SDS in college. We weren't terrorists. The government was.
We rekindled our friendship years later (my girl initiated the reconciliation), and I quit taking the bait. He's still a difficult person to deal with.
My parents were right, my girl is right, we don't want to lose friends over religion or politics. I'll try to reserve my judgements here on the blog, but thanks to all of you who have strong opinions. As Gro said, "You're all wrong" (I think he said that...) \_(%u30C4)_/
Quoting 311. hydrus:

Greetings..The eastern half will likely get some rough weather come February. Temps at the 10 mb level are rising fast, a sign of a SSW event.
I'll believe it when I see and feel it.
Quoting 360. allanjustallan:

Thats pretty huge, La Nina gone already.


The ocean dynamics of La Nina are not as clear or straightforward as those of El Nino and it's harder to model analytically. For the full atmosphere/ocean problem both El Nino and La Nina are tough because of atmospheric coupling which strongly modulates the simple ocean solution for El Nino and the less clear one (reflected equatorial rossby waves) from La Nina. (and that is my 1980s grad school level understanding of it)
Quoting 312. elioe:

Peculiar temperature distribution coming.



Now it's somewhat below average temps here, but in two days it should turn to above average. GFS thinks above average temps should remain until January 31, but ECMWF disagrees.


ECMWF trumps. (or can I no longer use that word for its original meaning?)
Quoting 311. hydrus:

Greetings..The eastern half will likely get some rough weather come February. Temps at the 10 mb level are rising fast, a sign of a SSW event.




Last half of January looks remarkably mild though. No Ice Skating in DC area this winter except at rinks.

342. Patrap
8:24 PM GMT on January 15, 2017

Happy B-Day Pat..We were afloat about the same time you were...Hauling 15 naval causeways each trip from Superior to Norfolk...Extremely dangerous work...Loved it...:)..

Re: #357 - Xyrus2000 -

Google search: Donald Trump an embarrassment
4,570,000 results (0.41 seconds)



dust, anyone?
Quoting 360. allanjustallan:

Thats pretty huge, La Nina gone already.

Welcome to the blog!
Quoting 362. ChiThom:



It's hard to avoid making political comments this year! I like most of the folks on this blog, regardless of political stripes, so I try to avoid conflict with any but the most warped views... and even then, I usually wait for others to comment, and then I voice my support with a "plus". My parents held the opinion that the best way to lose friends was to argue over religion and/or politics. I lost a friend eight years ago because he insisted that the president-elect was hanging-out with terrorists. (Bil Ayers)... I was a member of SDS in college. We weren't terrorists. The government was.
We rekindled our friendship years later (my girl initiated the reconciliation), and I quit taking the bait. He's still a difficult person to deal with.
My parents were right, my girl is right, we don't want to lose friends over religion or politics. I'll try to reserve my judgements here on the blog, but thanks to all of you who have strong opinions. As Gro said, "You're all wrong" (I think he said that...)


You're right; you're all wrong!
Quoting 369. earthisanocean:



dust, anyone?

Help me out here please...where is this?
373. elioe
Quoting 341. bwi:



After reading the transcript and abstract, I found one specific reason, why he might be wrong. He seems to rely much on paleoclimate, when claiming that models overestimate the downward flux of heat in warming oceans and therefore underestimate the speed, at which temperature approaches equilibrium.

Problem is, that for millions of years, orbital and rotational changes have been the main driver of temperature changes. It has been ten million years or so, since carbon dioxide levels as high as current have existed. But greenhouse gas levels have also such effects, which do not occur through the temperature response. Independent of surface warming, increased CO2 causes the upper atmosphere to lose more heat by radiation, whereas simultaneously the infrared heat flux from surface to upper atmosphere gets reduced. Enhanced convection must step in to keep the atmosphere stable.

As such, any recent paleoclimatic situation, when temperature rose by e.g. 1 degree Celsius, is different from such temperature rising occurring now. Increasing carbon dioxide should generally cause more wind on ocean surface (like stronger hurricanes), more wind parallel (corrected) to a coastline, more breaking waves... and so, carbon dioxide-related warming increases the vertical mixing in low-latitude oceans, compared to a Milankovitch cycle-related warming of same magnitude. So, I'd be very skeptical of anyone making claims about model errors in ocean heat transport based on paleoclimate, and using those to predict future.
The new blog can't read my hieroglyphics, shrugs, degree symbols, etc. ?
375. elioe
Quoting 372. LAbonbon:


Help me out here please...where is this?


Looks like the big lake near the bottom is Qinghai Lake, the dust is expanding in Gansu province, and the somewhat green line from top right towards Qinghai Lake follows the Yellow River.
Quoting 374. ChiThom:

The new blog can't read my hieroglyphics, shrugs, degree symbols, etc. ?
Better switch to demotic, ChiThom :)
Quoting 372. LAbonbon:


Help me out here please...where is this?


Himawari-8 Loop of the Day
2016/08/02 - Blowing dust in north-central China
Wishing you a most Happy Birthday Patrap. As a long time lurker, and occasional participator, it is a pleasure to read your comments. In particular, I've found myself looking forward to your new climate change pics each year. I like the 2017 hydra. So thanks for your time, effort and POV!

Quoting 339. Patrap:


Quoting 260. washingaway:

Art and art comment removed because its no longer relevant.
I never saw the art you posted. You are welcome to post it in my blog. I'd like to see it.
Quoting 372. LAbonbon:


Help me out here please...where is this?


It looks like China. I recognize that lake and the little restaurant in the upper right-hand corner.
Hope the ECMWF is correct after the weekend and I do like the last paragraph in the discussion!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
139 PM PST Sun Jan 15 2017

Weak ridging over the EastPac early this week will shut-off the
moisture spigot over CA briefly. This will allow several days of
fair, dry, and warmer weather with daytime temperatures approaching
average for mid-January.

For the latter half of the week, the main belt of westerlies will
become reestablished at a lower latitude across the central and
EastPac. This will set the stage for an extended cool and wet period
over CA through the middle of next week as disturbances drive Pacific
moisture inland.

The first system is slated to arrive here on Thu, with a period of
moderate rain and mountain snow. The second is forecast to arrive
on Fri. This one looks to have better jet dynamics, and a PW near one
inch to work with. Overall precip should be heavier, with higher
convective rainfall rates possible.

The 12Z ECMWF/GFS operational runs have come into alignment with
timing and intensity of these events, which boosts confidence. So
POPS were raised to the likley category Thu/Fri. Both models then
indicate a reprieve of sorts next weekend, although the ECMWF is
tending to hold onto periods of light precip along and west of the
mts.

Confidence is lower early next week as the operational model
solutions diverge in timing of what may be the most substantial
event of them all. Once again, the ECMWF is the most aggressive
dynamically, developing a closed low along the West Coast, while the
GFS keeps the system more progressive and holds off closing off and
deepening the upper low until it moves east of CA. Despite the weaker
dynamics over SoCal, the GFS develops more precip on Mon as the PW
approaches 1.5 inch. Looks like we need a few more model runs to
build any confidence for amounts and timing next week, but by next
Sunday, count on having several more inches of rain under our belts,
with more snow to brighten the mountain tops.
383. beell

Laughlin AFB, TX (KDFX) - Storm Relative Mean Velocity (0.5)
Re: #373 - elioe -

It's a study by not just Dr. James Hansen but also a group of scientists (16 co-authors) working in fields, such as Glaciology, Oceanography, and Paleo-climatology.

Here's the final revised paper: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦C global warming could be dangerous (PDF)

Happy Birthday Patrap! And wishing you many more!
On a weather note, it's been very dry and cold in Western Washington lately. However our luck appears to change, at least temporarily, starting tomorrow. S. California is about to get a break as the jet swings back north for a short visit.

An excerpt from the Seattle NWS Forecast Discussion:

.SHORT TERM...A pattern change will bring wetter, warmer and windier weather back to Western Washington. This change will take place on Monday as a strong jet lines up over WA. Strong, moist westerly flow will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday and models are ramping up the precip totals in the mountains. Heavy rainfall, with rising snow levels, may cause river flooding. A Hydrologic Outlook has been issued. However, there is still some uncertainty on the precip totals in the basins. The models are showing a wide range and the GFS still has nearly double the amount of precip in the mountains compared to the ECMWF. It will be windy in the lowlands over this period as well, especially the coast and north interior with Wind Advisories possible. The warmer air mass will cause temps to spike into the lower 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday...with lows in the 40s. The jet will shift south Wednesday night and a trough will bring an end to steady heavy rains, although rivers may still be running high.









Quoting 383. beell:


Laughlin AFB, TX (KDFX) - Storm Relative Mean Velocity (0.5)

I have been tracking this storm and it at one point had radar indicated hail of 4.35 inches in diameter.
389. beell
Quoting 387. hotroddan:


I have been tracking this storm and it at one point had radar indicated hail of 4.35 inches in diameter.


No s***!
Moving a bit to the right of flow (a potential for increased low-level shear)-worth a notice just for that.
Looks like more of a hook - echo is forming now; also the base velocity is looking stronger.


Travis county now in a tornado watch.
One of the prehistoric tombs at Loughcrew, County Meath, Ireland under recent snowfall, thanks to Loughcrew Megalithic Centre, photographed January 12, 2017.



The ancient site of Navan Fort in Armagh Ireland. Beautiful colours from the rising sun against the snow, photographed January 14, 2017.

"I lost a friend eight years ago because he insisted that the president-elect was hanging out with terrorists. (Bil Ayers)... I was a member of SDS in college. We weren't terrorists. The government was."

Perhaps you missed something?

Link

But wait! There is more!

Link
Late good night hello from calm and starry mid Germany with a little contribution to the icy blog topic:


01-15-2017 NW Oklahoma, Ice Storm - Aerial

Death toll rises to six in unrelenting ice storms
John Bacon , USA TODAY Published 10:49 a.m. ET Jan. 15, 2017 | Updated 3 hours ago

Ice storm pelts central U.S., upper Midwest
Reuters, U.S. | Sun Jan 15, 2017 | 2:42pm EST

Ice storm creates slick conditions in central U.S. for 3rd day
The storm fell short of forecasts, but still caused power outages and dangerous roads
The Associated Press Posted: Jan 15, 2017 3:26 PM ET
From Holinshed's 16th century account of the destruction of Mumby Chapel, Lincolnshire, by the sea on October 5, 1570:

396. bwi
Quoting 373. elioe:



After reading the transcript and abstract, I found one specific reason, why he might be wrong. He seems to rely much on paleoclimate, when claiming that models overestimate the downward flux of heat in warming oceans and therefore underestimate the speed, at which temperature approaches equilibrium.

Problem is, that for millions of years, orbital and rotational changes have been the main driver of temperature changes. It has been ten million years or so, since carbon dioxide levels as high as current have existed. But greenhouse gas levels have also such effects, which do not occur through the temperature response. Independent of surface warming, increased CO2 causes the upper atmosphere to lose more heat by radiation, whereas simultaneously the infrared heat flux from surface to upper atmosphere gets reduced. Enhanced convection must step in to keep the atmosphere stable.

As such, any recent paleoclimatic situation, when temperature rose by e.g. 1 degree Celsius, is different from such temperature rising occurring now. Increasing carbon dioxide should generally cause more wind on ocean surface (like stronger hurricanes), more wind parallel (corrected) to a coastline, more breaking waves... and so, carbon dioxide-related warming increases the vertical mixing in low-latitude oceans, compared to a Milankovitch cycle-related warming of same magnitude. So, I'd be very skeptical of anyone making claims about model errors in ocean heat transport based on paleoclimate, and using those to predict future.


I don't know enough to agree or disagree on the physics. I do know from economic modeling that we almost always miss sudden tipping points. We can key in on trends, like why are profits in the finance industry so high above norm? But we miss the timing of the financial meltdown when the bubble bursts, and so our forecasts are often directionally useful but way smoother than reality.

I think Hansen is saying that paleoclimate had sudden reversals under more gradual forcing changes, so if our models don't, then there's something incomplete in the modeling. Even if their ideas are still prelim, it does fit the ocean pattern currently, that's for sure.
397. beell

Warnings should update (with an occasional page refresh)
398. bwi
399. bwi




Current saved webcam photos of the winter storks in currently snowy Hoechstadt in southcentral Germany. As I write this temperature is -4C (25F) in this town.
Usually storks would leave Germany in autumn to migrate to milder regions way south to Africa during winter. But in the last years some individuals started to stay all year long in Germany, probably due to our mostly milder winters and the availability of food. However, when weather turns harsh, folks have to donate some food to the storks to help them survive. I follow this webcam the third year now. In 2016 this experienced couple successfully raised four hatchlings.
Good luck to the storks and good night to everyone else for now!
Here it comes again... It's already started snowing too.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM AKST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 4 PM AKST MONDAY.

* SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER EAST ANCHORAGE AND
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN MODERATE SNOWFALL.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING THEN INCREASES IN INTENSITY
WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING TOWARD MONDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CORRIDOR FROM EAGLE RIVER TO CHUGIAK. SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.
Quoting 393. Wacahootaman:

But wait! There is more!


More links to pro-Nazi youtube contributors? Okay maybe it is just Alex Jones and UFOs this time. I think you are on the wrong blog dude.

Still above average temps forecast next week for the Northeast and much of the Eastern U.S. Although GFS has backed off a little:
403. bwi
Arrived back in Des Moines from Fayetteville. Rained until I was 30 minutes south of Demiones. The temp never got below 30. About 80 miles sout of Des Moines at a rest stop, there was a little ice on the walkways. Other than that the conditions were good. The traffic was very light, partially due to it being Sunday, and partially because of the chance for really bad weather.

The forcast calls for the ice to get here about 9 PM.

The land and water has been cold enough that it will stick to everything not salted. However, I expect the roads will be clear as this area is ready for this type of weather and the salt, or pickle juice that they put down is good down to 10 degrees.

On another note, Arkansas is boring in the winter, oh, except for, um, doing husband wifey things.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 380. BaltimoreBrian:

I never saw the art you posted. You are welcome to post it in my blog. I'd like to see it.

Done.
Oh, one other thing.

For those that are all bent out of shape over the politcs. Please watch this episode of Crash Course world history.

https://youtu.be/a6XtBLDmPA0
Crash Course World History 18 (My IPad app will not let me insert links.)

The trade, or economy determined the political rulers, not the other way around.

Cheers
Qazulight
"More links to pro-Nazi youtube contributors? Okay maybe it is just Alex Jones and UFOs this time. I think you are on the wrong blog dude. "

I was responding to comment 371 that Bill Ayers, co-founder of the Weather Underground terrorist group, was not a terrorist. The videos are from historical documentaries that show differently. Or don't you believe your lying eyes and ears?

BTW, Ayers then girlfriend was killed when one of the fragmentation bombs she was helping construct that was planned to be placed in a military dance at Ft Dix, New Jersey, exploded prematurely before it could be used to murder US soldiers and their dates. Yet to this day Ayers is unrepentant and has been quoted as saying that he wished he could have bombed more.

I didn't bring up this issue. I just responded to it. Evidently, political posts having nothing to do with weather and climate are fine on this blog as long as they are "politically correct".
Quoting 407. Wacahootaman:

"More links to pro-Nazi youtube contributors? Okay maybe it is just Alex Jones and UFOs this time. I think you are on the wrong blog dude. "

I was responding to comment 371 that Bill Ayers, co-founder of the Weather Underground terrorist group, was not a terrorist. The videos are from historical documentaries that show differently. Or don't you believe your lying eyes and ears?

BTW, Ayers then girlfriend was killed when one of the fragmentation bombs she was helping construct that was planned to be placed in a military dance at Ft Dix, New Jersey, exploded prematurely before it could be used to murder US soldiers and their dates. Yet to this day Ayers is unrepentant and has been quoted as saying that he wished he could have bombed more.

I didn't bring up this issue. I just responded to it. Evidently, political posts having nothing to do with weather and climate are fine on this blog as long as they are "politically correct"


Who put you in charge?
Dægrima, beautiful Old English word for daybreak: 'day-rim', 'edge of the day', translated literally. We would say sunrise or dawn. Pronounced "DIE-grim-a"

Eisenhower Farewell Address : warned of the Industrial military complex.
He also warned about the SCIENTIFIC COMPLEX TOO!
And the powerful and resentful people in here who use their power traceable to arrogange
global in scope!

Eisenhower Farewell Address : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWiIYW_fBfY
On the subject of climate change, I present an oil painting entitled, "The Laughing Mammoth," by PacNW artist Hubert Hicks
(edit: 9:40 cst - I must remove the image now. I hope some of you enjoyed it.)
(c)2016 Hubert Hicks
Quoting 408. MrNatural:



Who put you in charge?


My Grandfathers did when they flew combat missions in WW2 to help defeat the Nazis. They gave me the ability to call out links to youtube from certain contributors without fear of imprisonment.
Goodnight from Austin; storms seem to be dissipating. Stay safe.
Snow blankets one of the prominent archaeological landmarks in Greece, the renowned Lion Gate of Mycenae, January 7, 2017. Gate from c. 1250 BC.

415. beell


Mesoscale Discussion 0057

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...Central/North Central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

Valid 160213Z - 160415Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated tornado threat remains across most of WW08.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell that developed over central TX has lifted north into the south side of the Metroplex, currently over eastern Johnson county. Several tornadoes have likely been produced with this cyclical storm. Air mass over eastern Tarrant and Dallas counties has recovered sufficiently, with dew points near 64F, for this near-surface based storm to maintain its intensity as it tracks into southeast Tarrant county and likely into western Dallas county.

Well-organized squall line is progressing steadily east at roughly 30kt and should track across the remainder of the watch over the next few hours. A few supercells are embedded along the southern portion of this line and this activity should approach the western/northern portions of the San Antonio metro within the next 1-2 hours.

..Darrow.. 01/16/2017


Warnings should update (with an occasional page refresh)
Quoting 412. wartsttocs:



My Grandfathers did when they flew combat missions in WW2 to help defeat the Nazis. They gave me the ability to call out links to youtube from certain contributors without fear of imprisonment.

You can take pride in your relatives as they stood toe to toe with the devil. No, that was not the question......the question I had was why you think this weather blog should be polluted with unnecessary political proclamations. Most of us are very happy to go to other websites if we want political drivel. I'd rather be reading about the weather!
If you want to comment on the weather, I would love to hear what you have to say.
We'll be going down to Florida in a week.It'll be like spring back up here in D.C anyway so I won't miss out n any snow event (the outlook is looking pretty grim for even conversational flakes).I the back of my mid it is still amazing that the U,S has gone 11 years without a major.Can we go 12 or even 15?
Quoting 416. MrNatural:


You can take pride in your relatives as they stood toe to toe with the devil. No, that was not the question......the question I had was why you think this weather blog should be polluted with unnecessary political proclamations. Most of us are very happy to go to other websites if we want political drivel. I'd rather be reading about the weather!
If you want to comment on the weather, I would love to hear what you have to say.
Go to Americanwx.I've gone there and have't ran into any political madness.Just click on the region that you are from and the area of discussion you would like to participate in.
Quoting 415. beell:



Mesoscale Discussion 0057

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Areas affected...Central/North Central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

Valid 160213Z - 160415Z

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated tornado threat remains across most of WW08.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell that developed over central TX has lifted north into the south side of the Metroplex, currently over eastern Johnson county. Several tornadoes have likely been produced with this cyclical storm. Air mass over eastern Tarrant and Dallas counties has recovered sufficiently, with dew points near 64F, for this near-surface based storm to maintain its intensity as it tracks into southeast Tarrant county and likely into western Dallas county.

Well-organized squall line is progressing steadily east at roughly 30kt and should track across the remainder of the watch over the next few hours. A few supercells are embedded along the southern portion of this line and this activity should approach the western/northern portions of the San Antonio metro within the next 1-2 hours.

..Darrow.. 01/16/2017


Warnings should update (with an occasional page refresh)


Nothing like Spring in the middle of January
Quoting 416. MrNatural:


You can take pride in your relatives as they stood toe to toe with the devil. No, that was not the question......the question I had was why you think this weather blog should be polluted with unnecessary political proclamations. Most of us are very happy to go to other websites if we want political drivel. I'd rather be reading about the weather!
If you want to comment on the weather, I would love to hear what you have to say.

This is not a "weather blog". It is the blog of Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. They generally blog about the weather but from time to time they also blog about climate issues. As I am sure you are aware, climate issues have become political.
If you are in search of a "pure weather blog" you might be happier elsewhere, where you would less tempted indulge in the rude behavior of telling the blog hosts what they should and should not write about.
re:
393. Wacahootaman

Fake news. Ayers was a professor at U of I Chicago don't cha know? If he was as bad as you say, he would be in jail instead of teaching at U of I.
Bogus, waste of time.
423. beell
Quoting 419. daddyjames:



Nothing like Spring in the middle of January


Fairly normal along the gulf coast-about the only place that sees the surface-based instability and rich(er) moisture.

I see what ya'll did with the moisture you got...
:)

Pretty impressive for Jan. 15th in north Texas.
Well the Michigan winter has been seasonal so far, and with 40s and 50's this week, we will be seeing a January thaw and one less week of winter....
It's still icy here. Visited a friend in the nursing home. She broke her pelvis in two places on New Years Eve, after leaving our house. It was icy then, too. She'll be released in a couple more weeks, as she's healing nicely. She's only 78 years old! She and her husband were planning to go to Florida for four months. That's been delayed, now.
Looks like another little ice storm is coming here for tomorrow morning. Walking will be dangerous for those with limited agility. Driving will possibly be dangerous. Maybe I'll go in late. Temperatures will be above freezing later in the day, and all this ice will melt! :-) °
We might even hit 50° a couple of times between now and next Sunday. Warm for January; the temperature should be around 30° this time of year.
Hey BB - You may have already posted it, but there was a big article in the local paper up here how warmer weather is affecting the glacier riversup here. The warmer weather is putting more minerals into the water and for longer periods of time. Records go back to the early 1980s on the Yukon River. Scientists are trying to figure out what that means for the various flora and fauna along the river and also in the ocean (since most of the rivers here dump out into the Ocean).

On Edit: Here is the link: https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/environment/2017/0 1/14/permafrost-thaw-altering-chemistry-of-yukon-r iver-signaling-profound-changes-for-entire-basin/

Link

BTW, in a few days my local newspaper becomes a pay web site... so that will end my ability to hotlink aricles.
Both GFS and Euro develop a cyclone in the central Indian ocean.




Good morning. Weather in Peru has obviouly been weird the last months:

Cold weather kills 180,000 alpacas in Peru
AlJazeera, Jan 15, 2017
Unseasonably low temperatures and drought responsible for the animals’ deaths.
Recent cold weather in the Ayacucho region of south-central Peru is being blamed for the deaths of up to 180,000 alpacas. These usually hardy animals appear to have been made vulnerable to the cold weather by a series of ongoing environmental factors. Much of the region has been experiencing drought conditions since August last year. Lack of water in lagoons had a direct effect on the alpacas' breeding season. ...


Peru: Heavy rains hit Lima region, Gov't pledges to assist victims
19:36. Santa Eulalia (Lima region), Jan. 15. Heavy rains, which started on Sunday at 2:00 PM, led to landslides in Huarochiri province's Santa Eulalia town located 50.7 kilometers northeast of Lima Metropolitan Area.
Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski requested citizens to "remain patient" adding relief teams would arrive in the zone. Transport and Communications Minister Martin Vizcarra assured the government deploys heavy equipment and aid to the area. ...
Quoting 429. Dakster:

Hey BB - You may have already posted it, but there was a big article in the local paper up here how warmer weather is affecting the glacier riversup here. The warmer weather is putting more minerals into the water and for longer periods of time. Records go back to the early 1980s on the Yukon River. Scientists are trying to figure out what that means for the various flora and fauna along the river and also in the ocean (since most of the rivers here dump out into the Ocean).

On Edit: Here is the link: https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/environment/2017/0 1/14/permafrost-thaw-altering-chemistry-of-yukon-r iver-signaling-profound-changes-for-entire-basin/

Link

BTW, in a few days my local newspaper becomes a pay web site... so that will end my ability to hotlink aricles.

A good read, indeed. Your local newspaper... ADN? I hope not, their coverage of climate issues is rather good. See also this article:
Yukon's climate, notoriously cold in Gold Rush days, is transforming

(...) Significant changes in the Yukon have already been measured.
Average temperatures in the territory have increased by 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit) over the last 50 years, and by 4 degrees Celsius (just over 7 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter, according to Environment Yukon, the territorial government's environmental agency. Yukon glaciers have lost nearly a quarter of their surface area since 1958, and glacial melt is causing water shortages in some places -- including the total disappearance of one river this summer -- and flooding in others, according to Environment Yukon. (...)

ADN - September 2016. Link
433. elioe
A subtropical cyclone could form soon near Cook Islands. At least latest NAVGEM, CMC, UKM and GFS show a somewhat symmetric, shallow warm core.
Following up on (slightly unusual?) lightning activity* in the NH... A storm forecast (valid until Tue 17 Jan 2017 06:00 UTC) has been issued by Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment) yesterday for the Mediterranean sea, "severe convective storms unlikely" in this area, but maybe a few waterspouts: more info on their website: Link
*Last 24 hours - archive (source - live map):
confused. the alpacas in peru are suffering because cool and dry weather yet a/t/m peru is being deluged with heavy rains. so?
From the Intercept:

POISON FRUIT

Dow Chemical Wants Farmers to Keep Using a Pesticide Linked to Autism and ADHD


[...]

On November 10, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a groundbreaking report laying out the serious dangers of chlorpyrifos. The “Chlorpyrifos Revised Human Health Risk Assessment,” as it was called, laid out the evidence that the pesticide can cause intelligence deficits and attention, memory, and motor problems in children. According to the report, 1- and 2-year-old children risk exposures from food alone that are 14,000 percent above the level the agency now thinks is safe.

Dow, the giant chemical company that patented chlorpyrifos and still makes most of the products containing it, has consistently disputed the mounting scientific evidence that its blockbuster chemical harms children. But the government report made it clear that the EPA now accepts the independent science showing that the pesticide used to grow so much of our food is unsafe. The “pre-publication copy” of the report stated that “residues of chlorpyrifos on most individual food crops exceed the ‘reasonable certainty of no harm’ safety standard under the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act,” which means, in simple terms, that any given sample of food may contain harmful levels of chlorpyrifos. In addition, estimated drinking water and non-drinking water exposures to the chemical also exceed safety standards. The next step was to finalize a chlorpyrifos ban.

Public health advocates have been calling on the EPA to ban the pesticide for years. Four months before the report came out, a group of 47 scientists and doctors with expertise in children’s brain development, including the director of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, issued a grave warning that toxic chemicals in the environment were increasing children’s risks of developing behavioral, cognitive, and social disorders and contributing to the rise in cases of autism and ADHD. The TENDR statement, as it was called, included a list of the worst neurotoxins and amounted to a desperate plea for immediate action. Organophosphate pesticides, the class of chemical to which chlorpyrifos belongs, was at the top of the list.

Yet when the EPA’s report was published indicating that the agency was finally taking action on chlorpyrifos, there was little rejoicing among the scientists and environmental advocates, because two days earlier, Donald Trump had won the presidential election.

Although the new risk assessment was the missing puzzle piece necessary to get chlorpyrifos out of the food chain and water supply, the law requires a 60-day comment period before such a decision can be finalized. Trump will be inaugurated three days after the comment period ends on January 17. The final deadline to incorporate the comments on the report is March 31, 2017, giving the new administration almost two months to derail the long-awaited regulation.

[...]

Donald Trump’s scorn for science and his embrace of widely discredited ideas, including the theory that vaccines cause autism, has long terrified the scientific community. For those working on chlorpyrifos, that terror is sometimes accompanied by a feeling of destabilization. “We’re all wondering what will happen next,” said Nathan Donley, a senior scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity, who has studied chlorpyrifos. “That’s what keeps me awake at night.”

[...]

Click here to read full article.
G-morning. A mess of rain here yesterday has ended. Ice has all been washed away. Most of OK fared well, compared with initial forecasts, but the NW portion of the state did get hit hard as well as TX, KS and MO. Those continuing to be affected, stay safe and warm. Happy MLK day.

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 10 FOR CENTRAL PLAINS TO MIDWEST ICE STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM CST MON JAN 16 2017

...FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...

ICE STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO NEBRASKA.

WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL AS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

[snip]

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL FREEZING RAIN ICE AMOUNTS IN INCHES FROM
700 AM CST FRI JAN 13 THROUGH 800 AM CST MON JAN 16...

...ILLINOIS...
MAEYSTOWN 2 SSW................0.37
HOYLETON.................................0.25
O'FALLON...................................0.25
WATERLOO 1 SSE.....................0.25

...KANSAS...
COLUMBUS................................0.60
WASHINGTON 5 WSW.............0.60
ATTICA.........................................0. 50
COLDWATER..............................0.50
COLONY.......................................0.50
DODGE CITY 2 NNW.................0.50
JETMORE 9 N..............................0.50
MORRISVILLE 1 SW...................0.50
OLD LINN CREEK 4 WSW........0.50
ZENDA..........................................0. 50

...OKLAHOMA...
BEAVER.....................................1.00
ELMWOOD................................0.50
WOODWARD............................0.50

...TEXAS...
CANADIAN.................................0.50
DARROUZETT...........................0.50
GRUVER.....................................0.50
I often spend time observing the web site in Oz called the Long Paddock. Part of the site is dedicated to a long term study of ENSO, with emphasis on the SO. The web site itself instructs that the index should not be considered for short term readings rather that averages are indicative of La Nina or El Nino. HOWEVER because I am looking at WHERE electrical couplings are around the globe and where they are going and think that tropical storms USE global currents, I do look at the daily readings and then especially where storms are, particularly tropical storms. Let me see if I can explain. In the Lindzen 'iris' paper and in then WARMER (TRYING NOT TO GET INTO A FIGHT WITH EITHER WARMERS OR SO CALLED SKEPTICS over Lindzen) papers Hartman/Fu and really ALL GCMs they use grid squares to look at out going long wave radiation. The tropics are all the subject for these studies and in particular the Pacific. However electrical currents will move in narrow channels (think wires) that are much much smaller than the grid squares. So this complexity, if true, would mean that these studies by top climatologists (who all lack any significant training in electromagnetism and/or its implication to cloud microphysics) are essentially meaningless. So anyway, what we have observed over long periods of time (since about 2000) is that when there is a rising SOI index it means severe weather in first CA where I am and then in tornado alley. Again I liken it to walking across the carpet then touching someone, where the rising index is the walking across the carpet to the CONUS. Anyway, of course with the big storms that CA got recently the index was sharply rising. Presently there is a tropical entity near Indonesia and the electrical energy in the tropics gets consumed by it--and the index is near zero: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimate outlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/Link


Good morning from the Great Lakes. Good amount of snow cover, but very little ice on the lakes. The forecast for the next 2 weeks for the region will melt what little ice is on the lakes now.
Quoting 435. islander101010:

confused. the alpacas in peru are suffering because cool and dry weather yet a/t/m peru is being deluged with heavy rains. so?

This may happen: at first months of drought, then yesterday a sudden deluge ;-)


Peru yesterday.

BTW, the current cyclone in the Mediterranean has been named as "Finjas" by the Institute in Berlin.
Below already the forecast map for tomorrow:

Quoting 438. vanderwaalselectrics:

So this complexity, if true, would mean that these studies by top climatologists (who all lack any significant training in electromagnetism and/or its implication to cloud microphysics) are essentially meaningless.


Here's something you may enjoy reading (if you have not already).
The atmospheric electrical index for ENSO modoki: Is ENSO modoki one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown?

Like the southern oscillation index (SOI) based on the pressure difference between Tahiti (17.5 S, 150 W) and Darwin (12.5 S, 130 E), we propose the new atmospheric electrical index (AEI) taking the difference in the model calculated atmospheric electrical columnar resistance (Rc) which involves planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and aerosol concentration derived from the satellite measurements. This is the first non-oceanic index capable of differentiating between the conventional and modoki La Nina and El Nino both and may be useful in the future air-sea coupling studies and as a complementary to the oceanic indices. As the PBLH variation over Darwin is within 10% of its long term mean, a strong rise in the Rc over Darwin during the modoki period supports modoki%u2019s connection with aerosol loading. Our correlation results show that the intensity of El Nino (La Nina) event is almost independent (not independent) of its duration and the possibility of ENSO modoki being one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown (WTS).
From NPR: An Ice Shelf Is Cracking In Antarctica, But Not For The Reason You Think

January 16, 20174:41 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
RAE ELLEN BICHELL


A NASA scientist with project IceBridge took this photo of the crack in November.
John Sonntag/NASA

A group of scientists is gathering today in the U.K. to discuss a slab of ice that's cracking in Antarctica. The crack could soon split off a frozen chunk the size of Delaware. Read more

Climate change, not conflict, was cause of Middle East dust storm
environmentalresearchweb, Jan 16, 2017
Many newspapers touted the Middle East dust storm of September 2015 as caused by conflict in the region and a sign of an impending Dust Bowl. Now a team from the US and Israel has shown that the storm was instead largely due to historically unprecedented aridity and unusual weather conditions. ...
Quoting 438. vanderwaalselectrics:

I often spend time observing the web site in Oz called the Long Paddock. Part of the site is dedicated to a long term study of ENSO, with emphasis on the SO. The web site itself instructs that the index should not be considered for short term readings rather that averages are indicative of La Nina or El Nino. HOWEVER because I am looking at WHERE electrical couplings are around the globe and where they are going and think that tropical storms USE global currents, I do look at the daily readings and then especially where storms are, particularly tropical storms. Let me see if I can explain. In the Lindzen 'iris' paper and in then WARMER (TRYING NOT TO GET INTO A FIGHT WITH EITHER WARMERS OR SO CALLED SKEPTICS over Lindzen) papers Hartman/Fu and really ALL GCMs they use grid squares to look at out going long wave radiation. The tropics are all the subject for these studies and in particular the Pacific. However electrical currents will move in narrow channels (think wires) that are much much smaller than the grid squares. So this complexity, if true, would mean that these studies by top climatologists (who all lack any significant training in electromagnetism and/or its implication to cloud microphysics) are essentially meaningless. So anyway, what we have observed over long periods of time (since about 2000) is that when there is a rising SOI index it means severe weather in first CA where I am and then in tornado alley. Again I liken it to walking across the carpet then touching someone, where the rising index is the walking across the carpet to the CONUS. Anyway, of course with the big storms that CA got recently the index was sharply rising. Presently there is a tropical entity near Indonesia...
Again, you can't simply declare dozens of heavily researched peer-reviewed science papers "essentially meaningless" because you feel their authors are ignorant. That's not the way it works. Produce the peer-review articles, or publish your own, and get back to us. Until then, you're just monomaniacally spouting rubbish. Thanks!
Regarding Peru, I recalled this from a blog last month, showing record cold in Bolivia in November. I'm still wondering why it was (is?) so unusually cold there. Anyone know when the 'results' for December will be available in this format?


(Source)
@Xandra - Re: post #436 - your post includes a lot of embedded links. Assuming these are the same as are in the original piece, I'm wondering if you know some super slick way to copy/post that retains original links, or if you go through the time-consuming process of putting them in there. Either way it's impressive!
Ummm, that sweet Monday derp is delightfully derpish.

.

Quoting 441. daddyjames:



Here's something you may enjoy reading (if you have not already).
The atmospheric electrical index for ENSO modoki: Is ENSO modoki one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown?

Like the southern oscillation index (SOI) based on the pressure difference between Tahiti (17.5 S, 150 W) and Darwin (12.5 S, 130 E), we propose the new atmospheric electrical index (AEI) taking the difference in the model calculated atmospheric electrical columnar resistance (Rc) which involves planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and aerosol concentration derived from the satellite measurements. This is the first non-oceanic index capable of differentiating between the conventional and modoki La Nina and El Nino both and may be useful in the future air-sea coupling studies and as a complementary to the oceanic indices. As the PBLH variation over Darwin is within 10% of its long term mean, a strong rise in the Rc over Darwin during the modoki period supports modoki%u2019s connection with aerosol loading. Our correlation results show that the intensity of El Nino (La Nina) event is almost independent (not independent) of its duration and the possibility of ENSO modoki being one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown (WTS).


That is a really cool paper. Thanks.

Now I am talking about it a step farther and not as a measuring tool but as an actual complexity that CO2 is involved with. Specifically the numerous dams built around the world and in the Pacific (Three Gorge/El Cajon and other dams on the Rio Grand de Santiago) along with the increases in fossil fuel is going to impact the signal noise of carbonation during El Nino in favor of the middle Pacific in how surface lows remove carbonation from the oceans.

What is the implication? A dampened system with the speed to modulate via rivers both earth chemistry AND temperature and then a defect in living earth feedback loops caused by human activity that creates a situation where an open Arctic and warmer oceans that have increased conductivity means an conductive pathway to a more conductive Arctic with a source of carbonation in methane hydrate instability that leads to non linear cloud behaviors there--in other words neo glacial super storms. The oceans as the water is removed to ice on the land become more conductive and hence a disequilibrium occurs until it is resolved. In geo history the super storms last about 10 years and are followed by thousands of years of colder drier climate. This scenario would kill and displace billions of people and end civilization as we know it.
Quoting 444. Neapolitan:

Again, you can't simply declare dozens of heavily researched peer-reviewed science papers "essentially meaningless" because you feel their authors are ignorant. That's not the way it works. Produce the peer-review articles, or publish your own, and get back to us. Until then, you're just monomaniacally spouting rubbish. Thanks!



No but I can point out that the peer review community, which I don't want a part of, has a problem with making conclusions on a subject they are not educated in. I thought the topic was ENSO related. CO2 as a green house forcing is the only monomania going on here, the only rubbish that is being spouted. Thanks!
#449

No, you're pushing a myopic meme with NO relevance, science, nor interest here.


I do have 3 puppy's for sale, German Shepherds.,7 weeks ol tomorrow, is you want/need something to nurture and grow.

If not, maybe try this over at WUWT, as they more suited fo' assailing of actual science, and the PROVEN scientific method



Monday is Red Beans and rice with smoke sausage,the Phish is Friday.




451. jeanX
I looked up Lion Gate after seeing image of 414. BaltimoreBrian.

https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/ancient-ar t-civilizations/aegean-art1/mycenaean/v/mycenae-li on-gate

short vid about the age and meaning of Lion Gate, very interesting!

SPC Storm Reports for January 15 2017

Several reports of large hail (2-4") as well in Bandera, Real, and Edwards counties. (Approximately 5-10 cm for our non-U.S. readers)



(Sorry, don't know how to make a tweet 'clickable' so the photo can be enlarged...)
Quoting 446. LAbonbon:

@Xandra - Re: post #436 - your post includes a lot of embedded links. Assuming these are the same as are in the original piece, I'm wondering if you know some super slick way to copy/post that retains original links, or if you go through the time-consuming process of putting them in there. Either way it's impressive!

I wish there was a super slick way to copy/post the links but I haven't find some yet. ;)
.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 448. vanderwaalselectrics:



That is a really cool paper. Thanks.

Now I am talking about it a step farther and not as a measuring tool but as an actual complexity that CO2 is involved with. Specifically the numerous dams built around the world and in the Pacific (Three Gorge/El Cajon and other dams on the Rio Grand de Santiago) along with the increases in fossil fuel is going to impact the signal noise of carbonation during El Nino in favor of the middle Pacific in how surface lows remove carbonation from the oceans.

What is the implication? A dampened system with the speed to modulate via rivers both earth chemistry AND temperature and then a defect in living earth feedback loops caused by human activity that creates a situation where an open Arctic and warmer oceans that have increased conductivity means an conductive pathway to a more conductive Arctic with a source of carbonation in methane hydrate instability that leads to non linear cloud behaviors there--in other words neo glacial super storms. The oceans as the water is removed to ice on the land become more conductive and hence a disequilibrium occurs until it is resolved. In geo history the super storms last about 10 years and are followed by thousands of years of colder drier climate. This scenario would kill and displace billions of people and end civilization as we know it.


Sounds pretty sucky. Any steps we can take to prevent this?
@vanderwaalselectrics, re: post #448 - "What is the implication? A dampened system with the speed to modulate via rivers both earth chemistry AND temperature..."

I'm not following how you got to this conclusion, so if you wouldn't mind explaining a bit? If possible, 'dumb it down'.

You've indicated you don't want to be part of the peer review community, and you've said you have a master's in Atmospheric Science, if I recall correctly. Ever thought of getting your Ph.D? I'm not being sarcastic or snarky here, but it's obvious you have interests that go beyond a Master's level. Nothing says you have to get a Ph.D. and then join the 'publish or perish' crowd.

Although I am a scientist by education, I don't understand a lot of your posts. However I have a basic understanding of meteorology and climate change, as well as the Gaia Hypothesis (and it's criticisms). You apparently have a very sincere interest in 'electrical connectivity', for wont of a better phrase; perhaps the best place to explore that would be in doctoral studies?
Quoting 408. MrNatural:

Who put you in charge?

Straw man much?
Quoting 457. LAbonbon:

@vanderwaalselectrics, re: post #448 - "What is the implication? A dampened system with the speed to modulate via rivers both earth chemistry AND temperature..."

I'm not following how you got to this conclusion, so if you wouldn't mind explaining a bit? If possible, 'dumb it down'.

You've indicated you don't want to be part of the peer review community, and you've said you have a master's in Atmospheric Science, if I recall correctly. Ever thought of getting your Ph.D? I'm not being sarcastic or snarky here, but it's obvious you have interests that go beyond a Master's level. Nothing says you have to get a Ph.D. and then join the 'publish or perish' crowd.

Although I am a scientist by education, I don't understand a lot of your posts. However I have a basic understanding of meteorology and climate change, as well as the Gaia Hypothesis (and it's criticisms). You apparently have a very sincere interest in 'electrical connectivity', for wont of a better phrase; perhaps the best place to explore that would be in doctoral studies?


My father was a meteorologist in the USAF during the 60s and my background in electronics is from the military as well. We talked about publishing and spoke to some people about publishing but everyone we spoke to is deathly afraid of the so called skeptics and warmers. I make a good living without any of it. I am a lawyer by trade. I was a math head at the university level. I was really really good at statistics. I process things very differently than most people and can visualize problem solutions before I can articulate them. Mostly I get to the assumptions made in reasoning. I was a National Merit Scholar in high school--I test well.

Most people in the atmospheric physics would use math that I would call chaotic oscillator math. Basically that is math that finds order in random behaviors, if that isn't a paradox. I have been in debates about biological behaviors, which is that math involved there too is random in character, but my thinking is that it's more likened to a dampened oscillator. What I mean more precisely it's like having a system that has random inputs but the outputs are changed to fit a framework. In this case, life itself didn't randomly come together but rather came together and began to change it's environment to its liking from the random things that it had to deal with. Life became very complex. In fact, simple life is simple precisely because its job is important in these changes, so that there is selective pressure for that simple life to remain so. Methanogens are a good example, which no longer have much ability to change, and their most important adaptations have to do with metabolism. Over large timescales life has become much more complex and able to deal with these random things, but humans have grown so powerful in number and things about the environment that they change that life as a whole isn't dealing with these inputs very well.

CO2 is at the center of the debate in my view because life is carbon based. Very little I have read about how you can find symbiotic relationship between DNA/RNA and metabolism, which again is at the heart of what life is. There is no good theory that makes the relationship at its start to advantage for either the nucleotide complexes or metabolism. BUT if you think about clouds as electrical and acids in electrical fields, due to the van der waals forces involved in freeze rates, the addition of both DNA/RNA would impact freeze rates in a particular electrical setting and so would CO2. CO2 comes out of solution with surface lows and would impact freeze rates, and roiling winds would also bring up the nucleotides from the early oceans. The DNA/RNA could act as both MODEL and feedback a solution, and grow more complex, and provide the very kind of dampening system I am explaining.

But let's talk about weather and thunderstorms. You know a thunderstorm occurs from day time heating then cooling and instability. After 20 minutes to an hour it's DONE. The question that has to be asked in this context is if there is a dampened system, how is INFORMATION passed so that there can be a feedback, a dampening. No information in the system means that there is no way for a model and feedback to be meaningful. The ONLY information that a thunderstorm has is lightning and rain. That's it. This is why the William Gray forecast in 2001 is so important. What Gray had learned is that in Africa the thunderstorms there were predictive of hurricane activity SIX months later. See page 6 of this Link But in 2001 the hurricane forecast team stopped using this factor in its long range prediction. My view is that his forecast skill from this factor ended as massive dams were built on the Niger River. What happened is the information (rain) from thunderstorms in Africa was not passed to the microbial biosphere near the CV islands where tropical storms form, specifically the methane hydrate ecologies, which are sensitive to river flows. This then impacts ocean carbonation and the signal that rainfall sends to the biosphere. The dampening then doesn't occur.

Similar comments can be made about large scale river changes to American rivers. For instance after flooding in the 1920s the US built massive levies and dams on the Mississippi, Rio and of course Hover's dam was built. There was a very heavy tropical storm season in 1935 and of course the dust bowl. This is a behavior of extremes, undampened behaviors much like what would be predicted if the dampening was broke. Information isn't being passed, or is erroneously passed to a highly tuned living system.

Longer picture, electrical behaviors, lightning as information, and lightning as how the global electrical field modulates solar wind and high energy light with the earth magnetic field, is disrupted. This disruption particularly in the Arctic where there are massive methane hydrate fields is the decarbonation event that will bring on neo glacial storms. Consider that methane hydrates line the coasts around the world at about 1500 meters, and are sensitive to PRESSURE, and as ocean waters pile on the land and impact albedo, they hydrates will unform and release methane into the oceans which is quickly metabolized back to CO2 by microbial life, and that then is how you get both increased ocean salinity and carbonation for super storms that are in the geo record and last about 10 years and are followed by thousands of year of colder drier climate.
RE, 421. ChiThomre:


Fake news. Ayers was a professor at U of I Chicago don't cha know? If he was as bad as you say, he would be in jail instead of teaching at U of I.

The federal terrorism charges against him were thrown out because the FBI used illegal wiretaps to acquire the evidence. Ayers himself admitted his guilt when he gloated after the charges were dropped: "Guilty as sin. Free as a bird". He later admitted to other bombings after their statute of limitations had expired.

The fact that he is a university professor is a testimony to the leftist bankruptcy of the Academy. Although he was denied emeritus status because the son of murdered Robert Kennedy who was murdered in 68, objected to Ayers getting emeritus status because Ayers dedicated a book to his fathers murderer.

All this can be verified if you do the research



Quoting 432. 999Ai2016:


A good read, indeed. Your local newspaper... ADN? I hope not, their coverage of climate issues is rather good. See also this article:
Yukon's climate, notoriously cold in Gold Rush days, is transforming

(...) Significant changes in the Yukon have already been measured.
Average temperatures in the territory have increased by 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit) over the last 50 years, and by 4 degrees Celsius (just over 7 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter, according to Environment Yukon, the territorial government's environmental agency. Yukon glaciers have lost nearly a quarter of their surface area since 1958, and glacial melt is causing water shortages in some places -- including the total disappearance of one river this summer -- and flooding in others, according to Environment Yukon. (...)

ADN - September 2016. Link


Yeah, ADN is going pay... We got notified by the editor. John Oliver did a piece on how important newspapers are, but how they are slowly being killed off. TV News rarely does investigative reporting on their own, but they sure quote and use newspapers that do.

This year so far it has snowed MORE than the past entire two winters combined. I have 3 foot of snow built up in the yard. Last year the snow never "built up" in between the lackluster amount of snow storms we got. While this is still a low to low average year for snowfall (according to ADN - I have no idea personally), at least it's something better than the past two winters.