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Icy Roads Cause Havoc in Oregon, Texas, Northeast

By: Bob Henson 4:28 PM GMT on January 20, 2015

Motorists in widely dispersed parts of the country found themselves slipping and sliding over the last week in treacherous black-ice conditions. Hundreds of accidents and more than a dozen deaths were reported. Repeated shots of cold, shallow surface air pouring across much of the United States this winter are paving the way for multiple icing events. In a typical year, icy and snowy roads cause roughly 900 U.S. deaths, more than hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, and floods combined. Ice on highways is an underappreciated, hard-to-predict threat, often lumped in with snowstorms yet distinctly different in its appearance and impact. The events of the last week were striking in their far-flung nature, and a spate of dramatic photos and videos showed millions of people what can happen when vehicles moving at highway speeds encounter ice.

Perhaps the most spectacular multi-vehicle pileup this month was the catastrophic wreck on January 11 along Interstate 94 near Battle Creek, Michigan, which involved nearly 200 vehicles, killed at least one person, and injured many others. The extended chain-reaction accident occurred in poor visibility and road conditions during heavy lake-effect snow squalls. In contrast to that wreck, several other deadly collisions over the last few days occurred in conjunction with freezing rain, drizzle, and fog. These conditions can be far more dangerous than packed snow, in part because the resulting ice buildup on roads can occur in unpredictable patches and can be difficult or impossible for motorists to see.


Figure 1. Temperature at various heights as measured in the National Weather Service radiosonde launched near New York City at 7:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday morning, January 18. Image courtesy Tom Niziol, The Weather Channel.

Sunday’s string of accidents from Philadelphia to New York–dubbed #Icezilla on Twitter—caused major havoc, with at least three deaths and more than 400 collisions across the area. The meteorological set-up on Sunday morning epitomizes how difficult it can be to predict ice. As a strong upper-level trough approached a coastal warm front, rain developed over parts of the Northeast, and warmer air flowed over a surface air mass that had kept readings in the teens and 20s for more than a day. The Weather Channel’s Tom Niziol created the table in Figure 1 using radiosonde data collected from the launch at 12Z (7:00 a.m. EDT) on Sunday morning, January 18. Only in the lowest 200 feet or so of the atmosphere were temperatures below freezing, too shallow a layer for raindrops to freeze into ice pellets before hitting the ground. The icing risk was greatly exacerbated by the preexisting cold, which chilled roadways enough so that some surfaces remained below freezing for a time even after the surface air warmed above 32°F. Later in the day, as a surface low intensified, temperatures at ground level finally warmed up while the rains increased and spread northeastward. Philadelphia saw its seventh-wettest January day on record (1.84”), and a narrow band of thunderstorms gave parts of the New York metroplex a rare midwinter encounter with thunder, lightning, heavy rain, and stout winds.


Figure 2. Black ice is believed to be the cause of a freeway pileup involving more than a dozen tractor-trailers on January 17 along Interstate 84 in eastern Oregon, police said. Photo credit: AP Photo/Oregon Department of Transportation.

Another multi-vehicle pileup, this one in black ice and fog, occurred on Interstate 84 southeast of Baker City, Oregon, on Saturday morning, January 17. The 26-car accident injured 12 people, and a truly phenomenal image of one survivor quickly became iconic. As one semi-truck ran into another, Kaleb Whitbey and his SUV were sandwiched in between. Amazingly, Whitbey escaped with only minor injuries. “I’ve got two Band-Aids on my right ring finger,” he told the Oregonian, “and a little bit of ice on my left eye.”

The nation’s deadliest accident so far this year occurred on Wednesday, January 14, as a truck carrying prisoners and guards from a Texas correctional facility slipped off Interstate 10 just west of Odessa and careened into a train. Eight prisoners and two guards died, with five other prisoners and guards injured. Odessa-Schlemeyer Field reported freezing fog but only a trace of precipitation on the day of the accident, with the NWS’s Midland-Odessa office noting light freezing drizzle across the area in its early-morning forecast discussion. The Texas Department of Highway Safety concluded that icy roads likely led to the accident, while the National Transportation Safety Board is investigating the wreck.

Icing events can be subtle and exceedingly hard to predict, yet they lead to many hundreds of injuries and deaths on our nation’s highways each winter. Even the most prudent motorist can happen upon black ice without warning and find himself or herself virtually helpless to change course. A good deal of useful background, including photos and videos specific to recognizing and dealing with icy roads (as opposed to snow-packed conditions) can be found in the short online course offered at the website icyroadsafety.com. As always, the best strategy is avoidance: waiting till the roads are clearly safe, especially if rain or drizzle is falling onto highways that have been well below freezing for hours or days.

Bob Henson



Figure 3. Salting a roadway near Breckenridge, Michigan, to combat icy conditions on November 22, 2014. (WunderPhoto credit: sterlingbreck)

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments



Wow. The NWS has a 0% chance of rain for SW FL tomorrow. SfloridaCat5 isn't going to like that. I guess their dry pattern continues.
As this strong short wave approaches early Saturday the short range models are indicating a potential for strong thunderstorms to be in place across C FL. This is for 7am on Saturday.

Quoting 501. tampabaymatt:



Wow. The NWS has a 0% chance of rain for SW FL tomorrow. SfloridaCat5 isn't going to like that. I guess their dry pattern continues.


I'm thinking the rain holds off to after dark on Friday as usually the WRF model has a good handle on these systems with in 60 hrs.
Quoting 503. StormTrackerScott:



I'm thinking the rain holds off to after dark on Friday as usually the WRF model has a good handle on these systems with in 60 hrs.


The NWS needs to really get a better handle on the precipitation forecast. 60% of rain for Tampa?! It seems to be near 100%. Yeah, we might not get a huge amount of rain, but if even a tenth of an inch falls, the chance should be a lot higher than 60%. Local mets have 60% also.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N FL AND S GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA
AND SOUTH GEORGIA MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND ALONG A STRIP OF
THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE LOWER MO TO LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AT 12Z/FRI WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE CYCLONE JUST S OF MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER SHOULD
TRACK NE INTO SRN GA BY FRI EVENING. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FRI
NIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE NC COAST.

...N FL/S GA...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NERN GULF...E OF THE
CYCLONE NEAR THE LA COAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE INLAND FRI WITH
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA SHIFTING NE. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE DEGREE OF
INLAND PENETRATION...WITH SPATIAL EXTENT LIMITED BY RAINFALL
REINFORCING SURFACE STATIC STABILITY AND CURRENT PERVASIVE 30S/40S
SURFACE DEW POINTS. EVEN WITH MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR PLUME...MOIST-ADIABATIC TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY MEAGER BUOYANCY.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VEERED IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONT PASSAGE. BUT
DEEP-LAYER SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD COMMENCE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER ALONG THE COLD FRONT
IMPINGING ON THE FL PANHANDLE. WITH LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR...SETUP
COULD YIELD LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.


...CAROLINA COAST...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN WHETHER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST/OUTER BANKS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON WHERE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THIS REGION.
NEVERTHELESS...EVEN IF SBCAPE REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE...POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR QUITE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL SWLYS AMIDST MEAGER BUOYANCY ATOP A
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE PERIPHERY OF INTENSIFYING
PREDOMINANTLY-OFFSHORE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE FL
PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL/S FL...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
DESPITE VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE
PERIPHERY OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 100 KT OVER S GA/ MIGHT
YIELD A RISK OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SAT MORNING ON THE FRINGE
OF MEAGER MLCAPE NEAR THE W-CNTRL COAST. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE WANING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES AWAY FROM
THIS TRAILING BOUNDARY
. SOME RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING RESULTS IN MODEST
BUOYANCY. STILL WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
TEMPERED IN INTENSITY
light snow at my house this morning
From NWS in Melbourne as the WRF is looks impressive with thunderstorms across C FL Saturday morning.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTN
(50-60 PERCENT) TAPERING TO 20 PERCENT IN MARTIN COUNTY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...IN THE
NORTH FRI AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS FRI NIGHT.
HIGHEST HELICITIES WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ON FRIDAY. BUT MODELS SHOW 925 MB WINDS INCREASING 40 TO 50
KNOTS TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SO THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
Quoting 494. barbamz:

Good morning. Odd tornado-like wind event on Tuesday (Jan 20) in Perola/Southern Brasil which unfortunately claimed one life and injured 17 persons when hitting a laundry:


"According to meteorologist Celso Oliveira from Somar Meteorologia, the phenomenon cannot be classified as a tornado, because the characteristic cone [funnel] phenomenon did not form. "However, it is noteworthy that the debris make a circular motion and you can notice that there is a column of air to the fullest extent," said meteorologist. "Because of this, we can consider that a pre-tornado hit this company," he adds. Somar estimated that the speed of the winds in the region at the time of the accident ranged between 65 km / h and 115 km / h." Translation from this portuguese source.


So basically, they had a "Nonado".
Quoting 504. tampabaymatt:



The NWS needs to really get a better handle on the precipitation forecast. 60% of rain for Tampa?! It seems to be near 100%. Yeah, we might not get a huge amount of rain, but if even a tenth of an inch falls, the chance should be a lot higher than 60%. Local mets have 60% also.


WRF is showing .50" to 1.5" depending on where the heaviest thunderstorms set up early Saturday morning.
Quoting 510. StormTrackerScott:



WRF is showing .50" to 1.5" depending on where the heaviest thunderstorms set up early Saturday morning.


The GFS shows all of the upper level support falling apart as it approaches the west coast of FL, typical to other lows that have formed in the Gulf this winter. I doubt we will see 1.5".

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
351 am CST Thursday Jan 22 2015

Discussion...
only real weather issues will be in the first 48 hours as a
surface low moves through the northern Gulf of Mexico. Upper
trough currently digging into the southwest Continental U.S. Will force
development of surface low over the western Gulf by this evening.
This low will then move east/northeastward into the Florida
Panhandle as the upper trough swings through the lower
Mississippi Valley. As the low moves through the Gulf...rain will
spread across the Gulf south today and tonight. Already seeing
radar returns across northwestern portions of the region this
morning...but most of this precipitation is likely evaporating
before reaching the ground as there is still significant dry air
below about 600mb/14kft.

Will take a while for moisture to work its way down into the lower
part of the atmosphere...so am carrying slight chance to low end
chance probability of precipitation for the first part of this morning...gradually
increasing from west to east throughout the day and rising to
likely to definite probability of precipitation by late this afternoon. Any precipitation should
be light during the morning hours...with more moderate rainfall
possible this afternoon. Highest coverage will occur overnight...
with 100 percent probability of precipitation for the entire area.
The surface low is
expected to remain over the Gulf of Mexico as it passes by the
local area...which should keep threat of thunderstorms limited to
coastal waters and possibly immediate coastal areas of southeast
Louisiana. Once the low moves east of the local area...rain
will become lighter and probability of precipitation will slowly taper down. Rain will
continue to be possible through Friday night when the upper trough
axis finally moves east of the local area and drier high pressure
builds in. Storm total rainfall is forecast in the 1 to 3 inch
range...spread out over about 48 hours so no significant issues
are expected
.

Once the rain clears out...no other precipitation is forecast
through the 7 day period. Dry high pressure will build into the
area and be reinforced early next week as another upper trough
digs into the southeastern Continental U.S.. temperatures will be near
to below normal through the period.

(Aviation & marine snipped)
Quoting 511. tampabaymatt:



The GFS shows all of the upper level support falling apart as it approaches the west coast of FL, typical to other lows that have formed in the Gulf this winter. I doubt we will see 1.5".




Again its another case where the GFS is falling behind the consensus as the models seem to be keying in on a small window from 2am to 8am Saturday for the strongest storms to occur in C FL. WRF model does indeed show .5 to 1.5" of rain again depending on where the heaviest storms set up. The reason for this uptick in storms early Saturday morning is this upper level disturbance.

CWG is not confident on any snow accumulating on Saturday or Monday.
inter Storm Iola
Impressive snowfall rates occurred in New Mexico as well as the Texas Panhandle Wednesday evening as the storm cranked up in intensity. Amarillo experienced snowfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour, and snowfall totals from this single storm have already exceeded the city's snowfall accumulations for the entire season.

Here is a list of notable snowfall totals as of 7 a.m. EST Thursday:

- 12 inches reported near Amarillo, Texas
- 11.5 inches reported near Colorado Springs, Colordao
- 10.4 inches reported near Canyon, Texas
- 8 inches in Amarillo, Texas
- 8 inches near Tres Ritos, New Mexico
- 7 inches in Papa, Texas
- 5 inches in Cimarron, New Mexico
- 2 inches at Los Alamos, New Mexico
- 2 inches near Santa Fe, New Mexico
- 2 inches near Denver, Colorado
- 1.1 inches near Albuquerque, New Mexico

Winter storm warnings have been posted for portions of the Southern Rockies and Southern Plains, including Santa Fe and Amarillo, for moderate to heavy snowfall. Winds gusts of over 30 mph are also possible through Thursday.
Quoting 514. washingtonian115:

CWG is not confident on any snow accumulating on Saturday or Monday.


Euro has several inches for you guys. Euro is much stronger with the surface low compared to the GFS though. This is going to be a good test to see if we still have the same old GFS that can't seem to never get anything right.
I do not need the rain, but I should get some waves on the NC coast Saturday from this.

My backyard is a swamp. Non-porous clay soil. Faces north, very little sun from Nov - Feb.

Quoting 498. LAbonbon:

Wet day ahead here, and wet in the next couple days for my neighbors to the East.


Loop to follow the low as it skirts the northern Gulf Coast
Quoting 501. tampabaymatt:



Wow. The NWS has a 0% chance of rain for SW FL tomorrow. SfloridaCat5 isn't going to like that. I guess their dry pattern continues.
Quoting 501. tampabaymatt:



Wow. The NWS has a 0% chance of rain for SW FL tomorrow. SfloridaCat5 isn't going to like that. I guess their dry pattern continues.
Good Morning. On the Gulf Low today, looking at the loops (below) and buoy readings, the center of the developing low appears to be a few hundred mile S-SE of Beaumont, Texas moving towards the N-NE.

Station KGVX
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 28.577N 94.976W
Date: Thu, 22 Jan 2015 13:15:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 25.1 kt
Air Temperature: 68.0 F
Dew Point: 62.6 F
Visibility: 7.8 nmi

Loop of the Image Below:  http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_fl oater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of _images_to_display=12

Not to worry, that august body, the US Senate, says it's not our faults, we didn't cause it!
Link
Quoting 518. StormTrackerScott:



Euro has several inches for you guys. Euro is much stronger with the surface low compared to the GFS though. This is going to be a good test to see if we still have the same old GFS that can't seem to never get anything right.
With the exception of the non existent snow threat last Wednesday the others have exceeded expectations.I'm just hoping enough cold air will be in place.
Well its supposed to rain today in SW Alabama, but it just so happens that i need to clear my yard of leaves, preferably before the rain because after when the leaves are wet its just way too messy. 70% chance of rain this afternoon. I might be cutting it close.


Snow in Highlands Ranch, Colo


Snow in Colorado Springs, Colo., Jan. 21, 2015.
And here is the current 300mb Conus Jet per GFS; a potential straight line wind issue downstream as the low pushes across the Northern Gulf over the next 24-36 hours:




staRTing to see snow in the northeast on this map
529. MahFL
Winter Storm Iola: Northeast Snow Likely this Weekend Published Jan 22 2015 08:47 AM EST

Winter Storm Iola is likely to bring snow or a rain and snow mixture to the Northeast from Friday night through Saturday night. The storm is currently dumping snow on parts of the Southern Plains, but will spread eastward over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Once Iola reaches the East Coast, it's likely to rapidly intensify. There's a strong chance it will undergo "bombogenesis" – a rapid pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. This will allow strong winds to churn up around the storm, and some of those winds could affect coastal areas of the Northeast.

We have a breakdown of what we expect in the Northeast, including the snowfall forecast, snow timing and the uncertainty with the forecast. Iola: Snow Forecast
It's still too early to be confident about how much snow will fall in cities along the East Coast.

Much of this is related to the exact track of the storm and how much cold air will be available for the storm to tap into. You can find out more about why this is the case in the forecast uncertainty section below.

At this time the most likely outcome is a stripe of light to moderate snow from the Smoky Mountains through parts of the I-95 corridor, with the peak timing being Friday night through Saturday night.

Here is an early outlook showing how much snow might fall across the Appalachians and East Coast from Winter Storm Iola:
Iola: Snow Timing As our forecast maps illustrate, here is the timing for the snow as it spreads into the Northeast:

Friday Night: Rain and snow mix develops near the I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia. Snow could reach as far north as New York City. Greatest chance for seeing precipitation mainly in the form of snow is northwest of I-95 in the Middle Atlantic. A mixture of rain and snow changing to all snow also moves into the central Appalachians, including parts of West Virginia and western Virginia.

Saturday: Snow or a rain and snow mix is expected throughout the I-95 corridor during the day from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia, New York City, Boston and Portland, Maine. Where exactly the rain versus snow line sets up is uncertain at this time. Precipitation tapers off in the Middle Atlantic and central Appalachians late in the day. Gusty winds possible near coastal locations.

Saturday Night: By Saturday evening, and continuing into the overnight hours, much of the snow will be confined to eastern New England. This includes Providence, Rhode Island, Boston and Portland, Maine. Gusty winds are also likely to move through these areas as well.

This would be disruptive if it did materialize..And it crawls at about 5 mph...no bueno..

AHHHHH....i woke to wonderful white snow this morning...........still snowing as we speak.....we could accumulate as much as 2 inches today...probably less than an inch however........let it snow..let it snow...let it snow



good news for the northeast less snow and more rain from new york city to boston more of mix of rain with snow now so less snow on the new update here!
Quoting hurricanes2018:


Snow in Colorado Springs, Colo., Jan. 21, 2015.


Funny, because I have a friend up there that was really enjoying the sunny and 50-60 degree weather they were having.
starting to slowly accumulate



538. vis0
CREDIT:: JMA (top/WV), aviationweather.gov (bottom/IR)
D&T:: approx 201501-20 through 201502-21;2200 UTC
SUBJECT:: Yellow Arrow points to Jet Stream Streak as clouds allows one to see winds, VERY STRONG even has 2 FAST gears watch as an already fast streak has clouds shows an even faster streak all going to that huge blending of LOWs in the Aleutian area.
http://youtu.be/TWwLCnCiboI


Forecast afternoon high temperatures
Quoting 494. barbamz:

Good morning. Odd tornado-like wind event on Tuesday (Jan 20) in Perola/Southern Brasil which unfortunately claimed one life and injured 17 persons when hitting a laundry:


"According to meteorologist Celso Oliveira from Somar Meteorologia, the phenomenon cannot be classified as a tornado, because the characteristic cone [funnel] phenomenon did not form. "However, it is noteworthy that the debris make a circular motion and you can notice that there is a column of air to the fullest extent," said meteorologist. "Because of this, we can consider that a pre-tornado hit this company," he adds. Somar estimated that the speed of the winds in the region at the time of the accident ranged between 65 km / h and 115 km / h." Translation from this portuguese source.


It looks like this may be a gustnado as it appears to be associated with some sort of storm outflow (just judging by the appearance of the clouds above when the video pans up). That said, however, yes, it could be a tornado. No, you do not need to see a fully visible condensation funnel for it to be a tornado. The condensation funnel is not a solid requirement.Remember the Youtube video of that tornado that hit the small festival in southern California within the last few months?





heavy rain in the south by gfs!!


new GFS model is out right next to the northeast coast line that why add mix of snow and rain on the coast line!!
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It looks like this may be a gustnado as it appears to be associated with some sort of storm outflow (just judging by the appearance of the clouds above when the video pans up). That said, however, yes, it could be a tornado. No, you do not need to see a fully visible condensation funnel for it to be a tornado. The condensation funnel is not a solid requirement. Remember the Youtube video of that tornado that hit the small festival in southern California within the last few months?


I thought the same about the video (gustnado).
Quoting 543. hurricanes2018:



new GFS model is out right next to the northeast coast line that why add mix of snow and rain on the coast line!!


Ugh, I actually want the snow now. This winter has sucked. Mild and wet, cold and dry. The days of bitter dry cold and the days of 33 degrees and cold rain just leave you longing for snow. This has been the least snowiest winter I can remember in a few years here on Long Island. It's on the weekend, so I don't mind if we get 3 inches or 20 inches, just bring us something. During the week, it's another story.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Yeah the 2014 Hurricane Season will be known for tropical cyclones constant track recurving into Bermuda or between Bermuda and the US east coast.


2014 also had the earliest hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina -- Category 2 Hurricane Arthur on July 4.


watch out for this storm in the northeast the GFS is out!! its move to the west on this run!!
Quoting 533. ricderr:

AHHHHH....i woke to wonderful white snow this morning...........still snowing as we speak.....we could accumulate as much as 2 inches today...probably less than an inch however........let it snow..let it snow...let it snow


Getting hammered today I see.
Based on the 06Z GFS, the N.E. (New England Region) gets repeated blasts of Arctic air for the next couple weeks.
551. JRRP
just saw on cbs news,in Iceland they have the largest Lava flow in 200 years there..and it could they say, flow down for years.
Quoting 552. LargoFl:

just saw on cbs news,in Iceland they have the largest Lave flow in 200 years there..and it could they say, flow down for years.





look at the next snow storm number two
Light snow continues to fall across west Texas and New Mexico.











wow!! look at the gfs model for next storm!!
Getting hammered today I see.


yes...hammered by this event.....LOL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>018-021> 025-PAZ060-070-071-
101>104-231530-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-CUMB ERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-BERKS-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-
1022 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A MIX OF RAIN, SNOW AND SLEET
TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLICK, ICY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting ricderr:
Getting hammered today I see.


yes...hammered by this event.....LOL


11" in your backyard I bet.
Or was it 1.1" and you read the ruler incorrectly?

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN TO THE
REGION FROM LATE MORNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.

FINALLY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COASTAL
LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting 552. LargoFl:

just saw on cbs news,in Iceland they have the largest Lava flow in 200 years there..and it could they say, flow down for years.

Iceland is on top of a hot spot, just like Hawaii. I would expect it.
Thursday to next Thursday
precipitation estimate.
I like how the GFS puts a green rain circle over Lake O.
11" in your backyard I bet.
Or was it 1.1" and you read the ruler incorrectly?




lol.....not even the 1 " so far
Quoting 540. ScottLincoln:



It looks like this may be a gustnado as it appears to be associated with some sort of storm outflow (just judging by the appearance of the clouds above when the video pans up). That said, however, yes, it could be a tornado. No, you do not need to see a fully visible condensation funnel for it to be a tornado. The condensation funnel is not a solid requirement. Remember the Youtube video of that tornado that hit the small festival in southern California within the last few months?


Pretty sure the California event was a dust devil not a gustnado. If I remember correctly, it occurred in a dry airmass on a clear day.

Either that or I'm mixing it up with a different event.
Told you this morning about severe weather looming in the Mediterranean. Well, this surreal scenery (flood with hail) is the main street in Catania/Sicily at the slopes of Etna today.



Same region (Misterbianco) with a lot of hail:



Umm, no lack of videos! Must have been really bad (this is at the fish market in Catania):


In case you still want to watch another one (with nice Italian houses):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-ZySwuhSBU

I saved a radar loop this morning (5 MB).
Quoting 513. StormTrackerScott:



Again its another case where the GFS is falling behind the consensus as the models seem to be keying in on a small window from 2am to 8am Saturday for the strongest storms to occur in C FL. WRF model does indeed show .5 to 1.5" of rain again depending on where the heaviest storms set up. The reason for this uptick in storms early Saturday morning is this upper level disturbance.




The NWS actually agrees, and so do I. They have high pops and notably higher qpf for the Tampa Bay area than the GFS.

The NWS in Tallahassee also has higher QPF for its zone than the GFS. I think the GFS is having some weird problem generating cold frontal precip, but there should be enough convergence and forcing to support a decent MCS in the gulf.

The tricky thing is how much of it will hold together across the state. The coastal counties on the west side of the state probably have the best chance at some heavier rain given it will be a fine between the departing upper support and an eastward propagating convective system.

1.5 may be a bit high, but 0.5 to 0.75 seems like a possibility, although you can't rule out local totals that high. Still, heavy rain is possible but it's not a high confidence call given the departing of upper support at some point.
Hard to tell from the current loops exactly where the Gulf low is starting to consolidate but I would guess from the loop below that the potential COC is in the Gulf due South of the TX/LA border at this time:

Flash Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/lo op.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2 _floater_2&width=640&height=480&number _of_images_to_display=12


It appears to be moving to the NE towards the New Orleans area at the moment; the further the North the low tracks, the lesser the impacts for the Peninsula of Florida so we will have to see how far North it moves over the next 24.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
570. txjac
Mongolia, the land of THREE suns: Sunshine passing through falling snow creates rare 'anthelion' optical illusion

The sight of three suns in the sky is enough to make most of us rub our eyes in disbelief, but centuries ago, the strange sight was seen as a bad omen.
The unusual spectacle, called a parhelion, was captured on camera in Mongolia.
It is the result of a natural phenomenon in which sunlight passes though snow crystals in a particular way when they are suspended in the air.

Link
Quoting 563. Jedkins01:



Pretty sure the California event was a dust devil not a gustnado. If I remember correctly, it occurred in a dry airmass on a clear day.

Either that or I'm mixing it up with a different event.

Looks like I was mixed up, not you. The NWS classified it as a dust devil. I corrected that part of my post.
sunny weather in east haven,conn right now
Quoting 552. LargoFl:

just saw on cbs news,in Iceland they have the largest Lava flow in 200 years there..and it could they say, flow down for years.


Which volcano?