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Ice and fire: extremes grip North America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:16 PM GMT on January 16, 2009

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state of Maine occurred this morning, according to preliminary data from the National Weather Service. The temperature at Big Black River in northern Maine on the Canadian border bottomed out at -50F, besting the old record of -48°F. Here's the scoop from NWS:

At 0730 am EST this morning a USGS gage at Big Black River recorded a low temperature of -50F. This exceeds the current statewide record low temperature of -48F set on January 19th...1925 at Van Buren. This report is considered unofficial until a review of the equipment and data by the state climate extremes committee as to the validity of this report. If the committee ascertains that this is indeed a valid report...a separate public information statement will be issued at that time.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from the Big Black River, Maine USGS river gauge station, ending January 16, 2009. A record minimum of -50°F (-45.3°C) occurred. Image credit: USGS.

Figure 2. Minimum temperatures this morning for Maine. Image credit: National Weather Service, Caribou, Maine.


All-time state records are difficult to break. The last time a state record low was set was January 5, 1999, when Congerville, Illinois recorded -36°F. Only one state record high temperature has been set in the past the decade--the 120°F temperature measured in Usta, South Dakota on July 15, 2006.

This week's North American cold spell has been a notable one, with daily minimum temperature records falling in seventeen states, Sunday through Friday. A record low for the month of January was set Friday morning in Caribou, Maine, which recorded -37°F. This is the second coldest temperature ever recorded in Caribou, next to the -41°F recorded on February 1, 1962. Mason City, Iowa had it's lowest January temperature on record Friday morning, -31°F, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa, had its all-time lowest temperature for any month Thursday morning, a frigid -29°F. Bismark, North Dakota had its second coldest temperature ever, -44°F, on Thursday morning. This was only 1° from the all time low of -45° on January 13, 1916 and again on February 16, 1936. Bismark is also on pace for their snowiest season on record (61.2" so far).

Record heat in Alaska and California
The temperature swings this week in Alaska have been astounding. At Nenana, in central Alaska, the high was -42°F on Monday, with a low of -52°F. On Thursday morning, the temperature shot up 106°F from Monday, topping out at a positively tropical 54°F--the warmest January temperature ever measured in Nenana. Several other Alaska stations also set record highs for the month of January this week. Record highs for the month of January were also set at four California airports:

San Jose 75°F January 12
Sacramento 70°F January 12
San Francisco 72°F January 13
Red Bluff 78°F January 13, 15, 16

More record highs than lows have been set at the 381 major airports across the U.S. so far this week, through Friday. You can look up all the records at the National Climatic Data Center's excellent U.S. Records web site. Records for this week:

Jan 16
------
9 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, WA, WY)
20 minimum low temperature records (GA, IA, IL, IN, MI, ME, MN, NH, PA, VT, WI)

Jan 15
------
11 maximum high temperature records (CA, WA, NV)
11 minimum low temperature records (IA, ND, IN, ME, NE, NY, SD)

Jan 14
-------
14 maximum high temperature records (AK, CA, OR, NV)
8 minimum low temperature records (IA, MI, MN, ND, TX)

Jan 13:
-------
13 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, AK, FL)
9 minimum low temperature records (IA, MI, MN, ND)

Jan 12:
-------
9 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, WA)
2 minimum low temperature records (AK, ND)

Jan 11:
-------
7 maximum high temperature records (CA, OR, WA)
1 minimum low temperature record (CA)

What's causing all this wild weather?
As usual, a sharp kink in the jet stream is responsible for the wild weather we're having. A ridge of high pressure over Alaska is forcing the jet to bow northwards into northern Alaska, allowing warm air from the Hawaii area to stream northwards over the region. Whenever the jet contorts into such a pattern, there must be a return flow of cold air from the pole that develops. That is occurring over the eastern half of the U.S., bringing us our Arctic air blast. The -17°F at my house in Michigan yesterday morning was the coldest it's been since 1994, brrr!

Jeff Masters
Icy Ferns
Icy Ferns
Ice outside my window
January Sauna
January Sauna
Sunny bright at 12:30 P.M. and minus 7 degrees F. Some geese and mallards "enjoy" a January sauna in East Dundee, IL. The Fox River is about 38 degrees right now ... relatively warm when compared with today's frigid air temperature.
Very Cold Morning
Very Cold Morning
-18C or -1F in Burlington, ON ... and a beautiful sun-rise too!

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the new blog and Happy New Year Jeff!

Yes, crazy weather this winter so far.
Lucky here in SE Florida, not as cold.. those fronts are not making it that far yet...


stay warm!
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
830 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009

...PRELIMINARY LOW TEMPERATURES REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...

THE FOLLOWING ARE SELECT COOPERATIVE OBSERVER AND AIRPORT
OBSERVATIONS FOR THIS MORNING. SOME COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTING
END TIMES ARE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM AND THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO SINCE THEIR
OBSERVATION TIME.

LOW TEMPERATURES ENDING
LOCATION 8AM

ILLINOIS

DIXON -32
POLO -32
AURORA AIRPORT -31 (SUGAR GROVE)
ROCHELLE -28
SHABBONA -26
ROCKFORD AIRPORT -25 AT 0651 (NEW RECORD)

ROMEOVILLE IL NWS -24 (OFFICE RECORD SINCE 1992)
MARSEILLES -23
BARRINGTON -23
MCHENRY -23
PAW PAW -22
WEST CHICAGO -22
BATAVIA -22
ST CHARLES -22
MUNDELEIN -22
ELGIN -21
JOLIET -21
MORRIS -20
PARK FOREST -19
LISLE MORTON ARB -19
PIPER CITY -19
STREATOR -18
CHICAGO OHARE -18 AT 722
MIDWAY 3SW -17
DWIGHT -18
WAUKEGAN -17
WHEELING -15
CHICAGO LAKEFRONT -11

INDIANA

WANATAH -24
VALPARAISO AIRPORT -20
VALPARAISO -19
I heard from a weatherreporter on the local news this morning on way towork that, we here in SE Florida (Ft Lauderdale & Miami areas)
we are not getting as cold as originally predicted because the front scooted more to the East than to South so the cold air was pushed SE...and the south tip of Florida missed the worse of it.. I guess it is true.

while it is "cool" high's 70, lows 50's...nothing nearly as dire as predicted last week.

Hi everyone..
I've been watching that cold in Alaska build for some time. When I saw that massive ridge developing along the West Coast I knew something was gonna give.

Now, with all this cold air in place (and another brutal shot of arctic air expected by next weekend) the countdown begins for who sees a major blizzard - starting now...
Oh, for more extremes check out the 12Z run of the CMC/GGEM model...

On day 6 there's a 1067mb surface high pressure over the Canadian Rockies and a 940mb low pressure in the North Sea. Almost 130mb difference in pressure between these planetary waves...almost unheard of!

This is why we'll be getting another surge of arctic air next weekend as the flow goes cross-polar and brings another brutally cold airmass across the pole from Siberia directly into North America.

Current temperature in Ojmjakon, Russia is -66°F!
Quoting sullivanweather:
Oh, for more extremes check out the 12Z run of the CMC/GGEM model...

On day 6 there's a 1067mb surface high pressure over the Canadian Rockies and a 940mb low pressure in the North Sea. Almost 130mb difference in pressure between these planetary waves...almost unheard of!

This is why we'll be getting another surge of arctic air next weekend as the flow goes cross-polar and brings another brutally cold airmass across the pole from Siberia directly into North America.

Current temperature in Ojmjakon, Russia is -66°F!


That Arctic version of the polar vortex sure is moving around this year...I wonder how it compares in size/depth to other years. Got any sources for that question?
Quoting atmoaggie:


Gee, I hope you don't think of me that way.

As a science guy, I hope you recognize the difference between the above and my usual poke-at-whatever-holes-I-see methods.



Of course not! =)

I've already expressed my respect for your science background and appreciate the effort you go through to back your commentary.


I just don't agree with thoughtless blebble blabble that some others post here, like the creationist comment person...


I don't think we'll burn to death by methane but I'm in no way religious, nor do I listen to Rush, nor do I get a check in the mail once a week from Royal Dutch Shell.
Quoting atmoaggie:


That Arctic version of the polar vortex sure is moving around this year...I wonder how it compares in size/depth to other years. Got any sources for that question?


An acronym...MWR, baby. Monthly weather review.

I don't think we'll burn to death by methane but I'm in no way religious, nor do I listen to Rush, nor do I get a check in the mail once a week from Royal Dutch Shell.

Ditto! (Even though I don't listen to that dude, either...never have, actually.)
I don't think we'll burn to death by methane but I'm in no way religious, nor do I listen to Rush, nor do I get a check in the mail once a week from Royal Dutch Shell.


3 out of 4 ain't bad...and no, I don't listen to Rush!

;)
Quoting NRAamy:
I don't think we'll burn to death by methane but I'm in no way religious, nor do I listen to Rush, nor do I get a check in the mail once a week from Royal Dutch Shell.


3 out of 4 ain't bad...and no, I don't listen to Rush!

;)



I thought that was 2 out of 3?? LOL!
it was, but you listed 4 things....I'm all about the details...

;)
"Another weekend is upon us, and its looking rough and wild on the weather front as the Atlantic really makes up for lost time. The first significant storm of the winter is upon us now, and it looks like it really will remind us of the force that these Atlantic systems can throw at us

A taster of what's to come appears tonight, with a band of rain spreading east across England and Wales. This is followed by clearer skies and increasingly squally showers into the north and west, where hail and thunder are quite possible, and these will tend to form into a band which will then move eastwards across the country later tonight.

This band of squally showers will quickly clear eastern Britain during Saturday morning and then many areas will see a drier, brighter and quieter spell of weather. However, this won't last long, and southerly gales and heavy rain will quickly sweep across Ireland and then the rest of Britain during the rest of Saturday.

Concern is mainly focused on the potential wind speeds associated with this developing storm. South/southwesterly winds are expected to hit severe gale force across many western areas, with gusts of up to 75mph around Irish Sea coasts and across much of Ireland. By Saturday night, storm force southwesterlies could gust up to 90mph across northern and western Scotland, giving a risk of significant damage and disruption. For more on this, please check our severe weather warning which be updated regularly as the storm develops.

During Sunday the winds will slowly ease, but colder conditions sweeping in from the west will lead to a mix of sunshine and increasingly wintry showers, with hail, sleet and snow likely just about anywhere. This will set the theme for the early part of next week as well! "

From Metcheck UK.

(Looking like the particular low will be called 'Gottfried'.)
The Met Office has issued storm/severe gale warnings for Western Britain (From Scotland down to Cornwall)and Northern Ireland.

"A swathe of severe south to south-westerly gales will affect north-west Scotland from Saturday afternoon through to Sunday lunchtime. Gusts of 80 to 90 mph are expected. Disruption to transport and power supplies is possible and there may be damage to buildings and trees. This warning will be superseded by FLASH warnings."

Heavy snow advisories are also in place from Monday to the majority of Britain.
RE: Cotillion
Does sound like a very uncomfortable time of it (and potentially dangerous) Stay warm and dry.
A big turn around in Alaska over the last week. Cold i the NE.
What's causing all this wild weather?


Yes indeed Dr. Masters...that would be the question.
Regarding the re-positioning of the stream...what would cause that?

Response to Gavin Schmidt on the Integrity of the Global Data Bases

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow



This link is a PDF.


Quoting vortfix:
What's causing all this wild weather?


Yes indeed Dr. Masters...that would be the question.
Regarding the re-positioning of the stream...what would cause that?



This sort of "blocking" behavior happens naturally frequently. Climate change does influence the duration and amplitude of such jet stream behaviors, but it is impossible to blame any one specific weather event on human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters
but it is impossible to blame any one specific weather event on human-caused climate change.


Yes sir...thank you for the response.

Wow those are incredible readings!
Quoting vortfix:
Response to Gavin Schmidt on the Integrity of the Global Data Bases

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow



This link is a PDF.




And to think that I was ticked off about our climate data integrity before I read that...

Do you think we will collectively wake up to the limitations of the historical data (and any resulting conclusions) before we are committed to [fill-in-the-blank]?
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
24. P451
Interesting to watch the entire block of cold air be forced eastward. It's not just the finger reaching into the US retreating the entire block of cold air right into the northermost reaches of North America is just shifting eastward. Look how warm it is in Western Canada, Yukon, NW Terr, Alaska!





I don't recall seeing an event like this. What does this mean for the USA?

Is winter going on a hiatus?
Sacramento checking in...

Was walking back from lunch today and saw a tree which pretty much exploded pollen all over, covering the back of a car and the sidewalk below. Took a closer look...bees everywhere.

Some guy had his shirt off and was sunning himself by the pool. I'll definitely take it over the east coast, but this doesn't exactly bode well for the year's rainfall total.
It is fairly clear to me...and many others in the blogosphere...that we are experiencing the pronounced effects of a La Nina effect.

More of an effect than the "experts" are willing to recognize.

Do you think we will collectively wake up to the limitations of the historical data (and any resulting conclusions) before we are committed to [fill-in-the-blank]?


I have personally awakened through much research...but I doubt that the masses have a clue how the data has been spinned to reach the desired result!

Good evening to everyone on the WU blog. The arctic air mass has its firm grip on the Eastern ConUS. Just simply frigid in the Midwest, Great Lakes region and into the NE US. Amazing temperature minimums in those regions earlier today. By far, today has been the coldest so far this season in terms of daytime max temps. The official high today only reached 46 degrees, recorded at NWS in Jax. The forecast low tonight is expected to drop to 25 degrees. Colder readings of near 20 in interior N. FL and SE GA are possible tomorrow morning. Hard freeze conditions definitely tonight as temps expected to get below freezing for up to 10+ hours most areas except the immediate NE FL coatal areas. Brrrr..........
"I have personally awakened through much research...but I doubt that the masses have a clue how the data has been spinned to reach the desired result!"

Vort, it's good to hear that you've taken the time to do the research. What would be really useful is if you could provide us with a short bibliography of the papers that you've read that have led you to your conclusions. I'd say that a list of what you see as the top ten papers in climate science over the past year would be great. Do you part to inform the masses, so to speak. Thanks in advance for the info.
wow! it's going to be -1 in Virginia! thats very cold (for us) what's causing all of this?
what a difference the marine layer makes. This morning, dewpoints were in the single digits across north and central Florida. But as of late this afternoon, they've recovered into the mid-upper 20's(mainly across eastern sections), thanks to the veering onshore flow. Atlanta's dewpoint forecast in the negative teens is way overdone as they likewise only bottomed out in the single digits just above 0.

In Florida and Southeast Georgia, there have been more days with cloud cover and onshore flows then usual over the last 10/11 years.
32. HTV
Quoting Neptune94:
wow! it's going to be -1 in Virginia! thats very cold (for us) what's causing all of this?


The Calendar.
Just dropped in to say "hello" to everyone. Not much to talk about weatherwise in the Caribbean this time of year. Overnight low in the mid 70's and highs in the low to mid 80's. Kinda windy right now with the latest cold front. About 25-30 mph. That's about it. Everyone take care and stay warm.
Quoting pangean:
"I have personally awakened through much research...but I doubt that the masses have a clue how the data has been spinned to reach the desired result!"

Vort, it's good to hear that you've taken the time to do the research. What would be really useful is if you could provide us with a short bibliography of the papers that you've read that have led you to your conclusions. I'd say that a list of what you see as the top ten papers in climate science over the past year would be great. Do you part to inform the masses, so to speak. Thanks in advance for the info.




I have posted an incredible amount of information on the WU climate change blog over the past year and a half.

I am not willing to do it again here.

This is not the place as this is Dr. Master's blog.

Here's the link to Ricky's blog.

Quoting P451:
Interesting to watch the entire block of cold air be forced eastward. It's not just the finger reaching into the US retreating the entire block of cold air right into the northermost reaches of North America is just shifting eastward. Look how warm it is in Western Canada, Yukon, NW Terr, Alaska!





I don't recall seeing an event like this. What does this mean for the USA?

Is winter going on a hiatus?
no by tue next week a brief warm up as current cold moves out all the while more cold air building over high artic will become intense and move s s e ward with a large storm to dev on 24 dump heavy snows then a rtn to bitter cold air to finish off jan starting on the 26 taking us into the first two weeks of feb so know winter is not going on hiatus but only just getting started
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no by tue next week a brief warm up as current cold moves out all the while more cold air building over high artic will become intense and move s s e ward with a large storm to dev on 24 dump heavy snows then a rtn to bitter cold air to finish off jan starting on the 26 taking us into the first two weeks of feb so know winter is not going on hiatus but only just getting started
Will the next arctic air mass be colder than this one?
Keeper, what are you looking at to get that much of a forecast that far ahead. i'd like to see it if you dont mind. thanks in advance
This is like I remember as a kid. Two weeks of -20F every winter. Then back in the early 80's we had some pretty good cold snaps in Chicago. There are advantages to this kind of cold:

1. It is so cold they don't salt the roads so cars don't get eaten up with salt.
2. The snow is so cold it acts like sand and is less slippery than when it is above 20F.
3. The cold kills many bugs that plague gardens.
4. It is just plain pretty outside.

Quoting severstorm:
Keeper, what are you looking at to get that much of a forecast that far ahead. i'd like to see it if you dont mind. thanks in advance


heres forecasted temp for mon 26 of jan



heres the storm on the jan 24 sat preceding the cold
"I have posted an incredible amount of information on the WU climate change blog over the past year and a half.

I am not willing to do it again here.

This is not the place as this is Dr. Master's blog."


My apologies Vort, I was just messing with you. I already knew that you got squat.
South Florida will probably miss most arctic outbreaks this year. The fronts come through, but they are bringing moderated northeasterly winds than the colder northwest winds that we have seen other years. Its good though, with the economy the way it is, the farmers cannot afford any freezes! So stay warm FL!
Thanks Keeper very interesting.
Only got to 33F in Houston this morning---weak.
post 42

but remember these are models and things can and will change got to watch to see if it keeps showing same thing over several runs
BURRR!! Greetings from the coast of Maine. I find it somewhat comforting we Mainer's aren't the only ones suffering through this cold surge. That high of 27 on Sunday forecasted here will surely be the "heat-wave" we need. Stay warm.

Ellsowrth, Maine
0 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: -12 °F
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: -15 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.36 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 3000 ft
Scattered Clouds 4200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 82 ft
Wow... I go away for a few days and the blog still goes on with "global warming" debacle.... er.... debate...
47. HTV
Quoting crossroadsofdowneast:
BURRR!! Greetings from the coast of Maine. I find it somewhat comforting we Mainer's aren't the only ones suffering through this cold surge. That high of 27 on Sunday forecasted here will surely be the "heat-wave" we need. Stay warm.

Ellsowrth, Maine
0 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: -12 °F
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: -15 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.36 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 3000 ft
Scattered Clouds 4200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 82 ft

Love Ellsworth, spent a few weeks in the area last summer. You can see me standing on the boulder at Jordon Pond. Got back home just in time to prep for "Ike". Tranquility to chaos in a nano second.
The postseason review for Hurricane Norbert is done: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-EP152008_Norbert.pdf
alright - i have to just get in one last whine before the night is through. We have a regatta in the morning - it is 23 degrees out right now and the temp is dropping still. I REALLY want to bail from this race tomorrow but will look like an absolute weenie...OMG we are going to freeze out there in the water. Do we have an unexpected warm spell coming within the next few hours? :)

Ok...my whining is finished. Maybe I'll get hubby to call me in "sick"
Waiting to see the TCR's on many 2008 Hurricanes,
Dolly, Fay, Gustav, Ike, Omar, Paloma need to be issued. Heck in 2005 they had the TCR's up for Katrina by October.
Quoting melwerle:
alright - i have to just get in one last whine before the night is through. We have a regatta in the morning - it is 23 degrees out right now and the temp is dropping still. I REALLY want to bail from this race tomorrow but will look like an absolute weenie...OMG we are going to freeze out there in the water. Do we have an unexpected warm spell coming within the next few hours? :)

Ok...my whining is finished. Maybe I'll get hubby to call me in "sick"


Yep you are whining.....but i wouldn't do it either.....LMAO
The current situation with above freezing air moving into Alaska to displace the extremely cold air that moved into the lower 48 states demonstrates an often overlooked fact about the polar ice caps. Earth has sufficient heat energy to melt the polar ice caps, but the heat is distributed unevenly. The heated water of the Gulf Stream along the European coast to Murmansk keeps the port there open.

Alaska in spite of its proximity to the North Pole draw an occasional influx of above freezing air when the cold air that develops there in winter moves south.

MORNING! Rather Chilly here in SWFL -43 degrees, been progressively colder ever morning for the past few days.....I'm already pouring the coffee down my throat trying to get my heater going.

SWFL Cold Front Surf Alert - You Got To be A Polar Bear or Loco
Yesterday, the horizon looked like a buzz saw, but the swell just didn't have the angle-of-dangle to make it to the West coast. There is a shin high peeler for the starving Polar bears, but I'm really not feeling that, even with the tide push and the strong NNE wind, we will not receive any significant swell from this cold blast. If they would only open up travel to Cuba... Bundle up and have a great weekend! Gulf Temp 63
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no by tue next week a brief warm up as current cold moves out all the while more cold air building over high artic will become intense and move s s e ward with a large storm to dev on 24 dump heavy snows then a rtn to bitter cold air to finish off jan starting on the 26 taking us into the first two weeks of feb so know winter is not going on hiatus but only just getting started


This is depressing,,,,, the only good that comes from this cold weather is the death of FLEAS, WEEDS, & HORSEFLIES.
Good Morning All

Another COLD day here in the Old North State
Last night all my cats slept inside for the first time in several years!
Now 20
Calm winds with clear skies
Forecast is for 38

Good morning all!
We finally broke out of the 50's and currently are sitting on 49.8F.

Morning gang, I hope everyone is keeping warm!
Good morning! Got out the coffee pot for a much needed brew this morning to help to warm me up this morning. I just checked the temperature here from my home in North Jax and it registered a reading of 28 degrees. It may drop another degree or two during the next hour until after sunrise. Pretty much about what was expected for the low this morning. The modified arctic high center will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast region through tonight. We will see some return flow begin to slowly develop on the back side of this High as a fast moving upper air disturbance will move in the South on Sunday. Another cold day today, but temps will warm slightly from yesterday here. High temps forecast to rise into low 50s in Jax. It will be even warmer here on Sunday as southerly flow very briefly evolves ahead of the incoming upper air disturbance. High expected mid 60s tomorrow. A series of embedded short wave impulses will continue to sharpen the massive upper level trough in place over Eastern US for at least through the middle of next week. We could some some rain here by Sunday evening ahead of the next disturbance moving down the trough axis in the SE US. For areas north of me, partial thickness values support a possibility of wintry mix of precip over N GA, upstate SC and piedmont NC as this disturbance rotates through Sunday-Monday period. Bottom line is that well below normal temps will continue into next week! Have a good day and weekend everyone!
Good Morning All.
6 degrees here-and we are usually warmer than the rest of the area because we are so close to the bay. Hope we get a day or two break soon.
The NWS office in Jacksonville, just a few miles from me, has reported a low temperature of 27 degrees for this morning.
62 here in Port Aransas. Getting ready to head to the golf course. Have a wonderful day.
Tuna
49f wind N 5-10mph I can hear the surf roaring from the NE winds of the last couple days. The ocean beach is one mile to my east across Indian River... sounds like a jet taking off in the distance.
as I previously posted, here on Gulf of Mexico, the horizon line looks like a buzzsaw of massive waves and the sounds does travel quite a distance.....

Arena Polo has been delayed this morning due to our cold temps...... even the horses are complaining and need warmer temps to work out.

This beach bunny wants to hibernate

"Wishing cannot bring Spring Glory, nor cause Winter to cease" Kiowa Proverb
Sounds like you had a full house last night MissNadia Hope there was no fur flying over territory last night -but I figure everyone got along-- cold temps make us all snuggle close and cooperative bed buddies
Well I've pour 2 potfulls of Jack-me-UP juice down my throat, made the pot of oatmeal for Youngbuck.......time to head out east and get'her done...... the Klondike of Florida awaits...back later this afternoon --if I don't freeze and seize.

Take care all
This blog post is biased. Why didn't you say how long records have been kept at Big Black River? 1880s? 1600s? or 1925? I set a record low temp at my house this morning. How long have I been keeping records? Since last week but it's sounds more official and sensational if I say "ever recorded". You only needed 5 words to make this a useful report: "since records began in (year)." Every record reported here is meaningless because the context is omitted. I guess it's more important to give the appearance of science.

It's interesting that the temperatre is subject to committee review. Maybe they can take a vote and say the low was -60 so the record could stand well into the future.

Also the jet stream does not bring cold (or warm) air. The jet stream (thermal wind) flows along temparature gradients, along the edge of a much larger air mass. So when you hear meteorologists say the jet strem will dip and bring cold air, that's not true. Why is it so hard to say, a cold air mass will move into the region- as a result, the jet stream will dip?

I guess nobody reads for comprehension anymore,
Morning Everyone -

Twenty seven here this morning...

yuck
pangean...

Perhaps you should start at the top.

How about asking the blogmaster to provide us with the specifications for a certified weather station.

Then you could ask him what the requirements are for periodic calibration of those same stations.

While you are at it, you might also want to ask him what the placement restrictions are for a station to insure the data generated is not shadowed by external influences like such nuisances as buildings and central air conditioners.

Then you could ask him what provisions are in place for the weather community to verify the placement and condition of each weather station on a yearly schedule or some sort of other periodicity.

Has anyone ever seen a map of all the weather stations used in the data set that the blogmaster and his cohorts used to conclude run-away global warming?

Note that my questions are related to the certification of accuracy of the compiled data. We have very little to talk about until those certifications are in place.

Also realize that simply saying they are in place is not enough. It is appropriate that he provide the actual documentation because his prognostications are all predicated on the data that is, in his case, ASSUMED to be correct.

Saying the data is software adjusted is inappropriate because the assumptions used in the software are and have always been admitted to be conjecture.

Since the prognostications are supposed to be the final answer, then assumptions should not be part of the mix. Analysis of hard data is complicated and trying to smooth over bumpy spots with computer generated adjustments is not science it is extrapolation.

Here is an example.

Lets say I have an image that is 300 pixels by 300 pixels. There is an element in the image that I cannot identify. No problem...I'll blow the picture up to 1200 X 1200 pixels and then I can determine the identity of that mysterious element.

Right?...Nope. The imaging software used an algorithm to add those extra pixels. The image and its data are no more accurate than the original 300 X 300 image. If I see a corona where there was none in the original, that does not mean it was there all along. The algorithm has grouped bits of data in the image and assigned a new numeric to that batch of data. If the algorithm is changed and the corona goes away, was the corona really there after all.

Conclusion?

The weather station data is supposed to be HARD DATA (ie. a group of pixels in a grand image of the earth). Changing any of those pixels modifies the image and it is rendered pretty to look and nothing more.

Chilly here in Miami at 9:30 - only 56 degrees. Will be interesting to see how it gets up to 70 today.

Have a daughter in Maine - yesterday low was a chilly -24. That is seriously cold weather.
Quoting melwerle:
Morning Everyone -

Twenty seven here this morning...

yuck


What's the plan? Did they call off the 'regretta'?
12 degrees here absolutely freezing tomorrow it should snow though
73. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


heres forecasted temp for mon 26 of jan



heres the storm on the jan 24 sat preceding the cold



So, after a quick warm-up North America wide it's going right back in the ice box?

Hard to believe after seeing the cold mass move eastward so quickly.

The Met Office has now released Code RED Severe Gale and Storm Warnings for Scotland.

People in these areas must Take Action.

(Basically this would be the Met Office's version of 'PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.' Been a little while since I've seen red.)

Gusts have revised upward yet again... This rapidly deepening Windstorm expected to produce gales topping 100mph in these regions. Ireland, NW Scotland and the rest of Western Britain will also experience severe gales. Anywhere from 60-100mph expected.

Heavy rain warnings are also in effect for all of these areas.

Pressure is expected to be around 945mb when it crosses Ireland and Scotland.
Quoting melwerle:
Morning Everyone -

Twenty seven here this morning...

yuck


I'll take it...better than 2ºF here in NY
:-P
TORRO has also issued the following statement:

A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 14:40GMT on Saturday 17th January 2009

Valid from/until: 1440-1000 on Saturday 17th/Sunday 18th January 2009, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Eire

N Ireland

S & E Scotland

IoM

England, Wales, and the Channel Islands

THREATS Tornadoes, perhaps strong, hail, thunderstorm wind gusts to 65 knots, torrential rain, and cloud-ground lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Intense Atlantic low will push strong cold front across the British Isles this afternoon and evening. With strong low-level wind shear, and convection already occurring, tornadoes and severe wind gusts are possible. A strong tornado is possible, especially for Eire/N Ireland this afternoon. Post-front, several bands of showers/thunderstorms are likely, especially for western and especially southern parts. These also bring the risk of severe winds and perhaps a tornado, with the threat continuing into tomorrow morning.'
I dont mind the cold IF it comes with snow (Snow=Snow day=No School!) But we've barely even had a snow shower since this cold snap started
Good Morning all :)

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site

The weather here is nicer then a lot of places down south right now.. thats a pleasant change of events.

37°F
Fog
* Feels Like: -
* Wind: NE 4m/h
* Sunrise: 7:59
* Sunset: 16:49

* Relative Humidity: 93%
* Pressure: 1,032.50 mb
* Visibility: 0.5 miles
* Ceiling: 200 ft



Image of the system bringing the aforementioned severe weather.
Cool image, Cotillion.
COTILLION-I was interested to know if you have info about the fastnet race back in 1979.Good satellite pictures of that system are few and difficult to find.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Cool image, Cotillion.


Link

Shows the system as it moves in, it's a nice animation.
It's been pretty cold the past few days, with the temperature bottoming out at -24C (-11F) Wednesday morning. On Wednesday and Thursday morning, I was wearing so many layers I was more hot than cold, but every time I took a breath through my nostrils they would freeze on the inside! We're supposed to get some more snow today, but for places south of Buffalo in New York State, they could get over 32 in (80+ cm) of snow!
I just updated my Weather Blog and forecast a Major Snow Event coming Latne next Week!!

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Quoting hydrus:
COTILLION-I was interested to know if you have info about the fastnet race back in 1979.Good satellite pictures of that system are few and difficult to find.


I'm afraid nothing on here, and a quick search hasn't found too much. Only thing I found with a specific focus on the 'storm' itself is in German...

Link

(Has some nice diagrams and images though.)

I hadn't actually heard of it until you mentioned it.

Link

That's a nice account also.

Highest I've seen is around Force 11 or so (That article does mention a gust of 80 or so, but it's not verified anywhere else), which is 65-72mph. That's fairly strong, but remember those are gusts. The pressure itself was probably in the 980s. That's nothing unusual as a system around the British Isles. The winds itself are nothing too unusual.

As with my previous few posts, 100mph+ gusts are expected in the next 24 hours. Kyrill from a couple of years ago brought in gusts of 115mph, sustained winds were at least that of an equivalent hurricane.

What's extraordinary is the timing. In the article, he mentions the pressure reading dropping from 1025 to 985 or so. Of course, he was sailing into the depression at the time, so this was expected. It did occur out of nowhere, and the weather reports did not expect it to happen. The winds probably came from the differential in pressures as the low as right by the B/A High at the time.

It's rare the British Isles will get a deepening low in the summer, which is what caught them out. Naturally, that it happened during a known shipping race emphasised the story. Deepening lows tend to occur from October to March time, with the peak in mid to late January.

This timing has specific mechanics (Which has been said to me, but I can't remember it offhand) but is partly the reason why former hurricanes don't cause that much damage here, there aren't the mechanics to make it rapidly deepen as an extratropical system.

That's all I know. :)
Good Mornig all, Hey TS only made it down to 31.1 last night. the wind stayed up and kept it warmer.
69. calusakat 1:56 PM GMT on January 17, 2009
"pangean...

Perhaps you should start at the top..."


Not sure why you're addressing this to me but I've got a few minutes so I'll take a shot at it. First, your spiel about weather stations, all I can say is - blah, blah, blah - heard it all before - not buying it. Bottom line is that your argument boils down to "it's not really getting warmer, it's just a measurement artifact." Sorts of makes you fundamentalist skeptic.

Second, your imaging example. Unfortunately, you didn't state one very important assumption that you're making; you have no other information about the image except that contained within the image itself. In this case we'd generally make the assumption (valid or not) that intensity varies in a linear fashion across the image and use linear interpolation to create the new pixels in our magnified image. And you are correct, if a feature wasn't recognizable in the original image, you won't see it in the zoomed image. Unless, of course, we're watching CSI.

But, in the case of weather stations and most other things, we do have other information to use to identify that mysterious element. If we go back to the imaging example, we can use our knowledge that any complex signal that varies across time or space can be reasonably approximated by superposing an arbitrary number of sinusoidal signals. We can use a technique called Fourier analysis to break down the image into the component sinusoidal elements, then reconstruct the image using only the high frequency components. The low frequency stuff that we've removed might be a blur that's obscuring the mysterious element. Remove the blur and you might be able to discern the feature of interest.

Another example from the realm of imaging is deconvolution. This relies on the fact that all optical components introduce some amount of distortion into an image. Think of the effect of a wide angle (fisheye) lens. Or maybe the fact that the ideal focus of an image depends on the color of the light. If the blues are perfectly focussed, the reds won't be. Anyway, it might be these distortions induced by the optics that are obscuring our mysterious element.

However, if we can measure the modulation transfer function - a fancy way of saying a mathematical model of the distortions - of our optical system, we can use that information to deconvolve the image, i.e., mathematically remove the distortions. One of the most famous of the use of this technique is the Hubble Space Telescope. The original primary mirror for the telescope was ground to the wrong shape which resulted in distorted images. However, since they had precise measurements of the misshapen mirror, and therefore knew precisely the nature distortion, deconvolution could be used to correct those distortions in the images.

I know that I've gone on a bit here but I wanted to try and make the point that data adjustment does not necessarily equate to inappropriate manipulation of the data. By using all of the information at our disposal we're able to legitimately improve the reliability of the raw data.
good morning!
Quoting HTV:


The Calendar.
no its not normal to have that cold even in the dead of winter
THANKS COTILLION-If you get the chance,check that storm out.One of the books I read reported the jet stream reached the surface of the ocean and caused freak weather conditions.
---

That's a very interesting article, Cotillion!
Thanks for the link.

Stay warm and safe in that winterstorm you're getting.

Quoting Cotillion:


I'm afraid nothing on here, and a quick search hasn't found too much. Only thing I found with a specific focus on the 'storm' itself is in German...

Link

(Has some nice diagrams and images though.)

I hadn't actually heard of it until you mentioned it.

Link

That's a nice account also.

Highest I've seen is around Force 11 or so (That article does mention a gust of 80 or so, but it's not verified anywhere else), which is 65-72mph. That's fairly strong, but remember those are gusts. The pressure itself was probably in the 980s. That's nothing unusual as a system around the British Isles. The winds itself are nothing too unusual.

As with my previous few posts, 100mph+ gusts are expected in the next 24 hours. Kyrill from a couple of years ago brought in gusts of 115mph, sustained winds were at least that of an equivalent hurricane.

What's extraordinary is the timing. In the article, he mentions the pressure reading dropping from 1025 to 985 or so. Of course, he was sailing into the depression at the time, so this was expected. It did occur out of nowhere, and the weather reports did not expect it to happen. The winds probably came from the differential in pressures as the low as right by the B/A High at the time.

It's rare the British Isles will get a deepening low in the summer, which is what caught them out. Naturally, that it happened during a known shipping race emphasised the story. Deepening lows tend to occur from October to March time, with the peak in mid to late January.

This timing has specific mechanics (Which has been said to me, but I can't remember it offhand) but is partly the reason why former hurricanes don't cause that much damage here, there aren't the mechanics to make it rapidly deepen as an extratropical system.

That's all I know. :)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
ZONE PERTURBEE 06-20082009
16:00 PM Réunion January 17 2009
======================================

At 12:00 AM UTC, Area of Disturbed Weather (1005 hPa) located at 15.3S 55.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.5S 53.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.9S 51.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.0S 49.6E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 23.7S 49.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Surface observations and classical satellite imagery shows that the system, that is currently located north of Mascaregnas island at about 330 NM north of Réunion, has progressively become better organized today. 24 hour variation of pressure at Tromelin are in range of -2..5/-3 hPa since 9 hours ago. Surface low pressure at the center is estimated from Tromelin from the barometric tide motion and speed are an uncertain. System is fed by a good tradewind inflow, but monsoon flow appears weaker and less efficient )possibly disturb by the northern tip of Madagascar) Wind shear has decreased over the last 24 hours and upper level divergence is good, especially in the northern part with some nice cirrus expension (more limited in the southern part). As the system is over warm sea surface temperatures in the range of 29C, conditions appear favorable for further development. Most of the NWP guidance are not in good agreement about the development of this system. On the 0000z run, ECMWF and ALADIN develop strongly the system, NOGAP and ARPEGE (Global french model) maintains a weak low and GFS and UKMO do not maintain the initial circulation. However given the current trend, the present forecast is based on an ECMWF/ALADIN consensus, but it is important to notice that there is a lower than unsual confidence for the intensity forecast. The philosophy of the track is that the system should track on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge towards a weakness in the pressure field located south of Madagascar.

CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
Wind has really picked up here in the last couple of hours. Rain starting to lash down too.



Next time it appears the arctic high will push much farther south giving south and central Florida ideal radiational cooling(despite the same daytime highs hopefully).
That system is wrapped up pretty tight Cotillion.
Take care.
Great reading for those interested in severe Atlantic gales that move into the British Isles.

Night of the Big Wind - 1839.
pangean...

Until you or someone else can answer those issues I posed to you earlier, your described interpretation of weather data is flawed.

I did say that the software was an algorithm...didn't I. Simply put, an algorithm is a mathematical formula that is used to 'interpret' data as it is presented to it. That formula is based upon 'assumptions' which decide what to do if certain data masses arise.

Coupled with the fact that we do not have any 'certification' of the accuracy not to mention the verification that the instruments are placed in scientifically neutral location. It is readily apparent that the current thinking and writing is flawed because it is using flawed data on which to base its claims.

Certification of the accuracy means that the weather station has been calibrated to current standards. Verification of placement is necessary to insure the instrumentation is not being affected by local perturbations.

For example...Kilns are of vital importance in many industries. Obviously, it is vitally important that the operators are confident in the accuracy of the temperatures in those kilns.

Most kilns use thermocouples, primarily K-junctions, that can dependably measure temperatures up to 2000f. The dependability and accuracy are for naught if the thermocouple is improperly placed. ie. If it is place too low or too high or too close to a side. Placement is everything and the measuring equipment attached to the thermocouple can only report information that it receives...it has no way of knowing how well the thermocouple has been placed. It only knows the local conditions of the thermocouple.

You demanded that Vortfix provide substantiating documentation and my reply was to ask the same of the blogmaster and his cohorts.

To date, there is no forthcoming documentation that certifies each and every weather station, globally, for accuracy and proper placement. Instead, what we seem to be getting is data manipulation through algorithm. Either it is 88.23 degrees or it is not. Resorting to algorithm interpretation because the scientists are too lazy to do the necessary homework to insure hard data accuracy just seems so unscientific.
pangean @ 88

First, your spiel about weather stations, all I can say is - blah, blah, blah - heard it all before - not buying it. Bottom line is that your argument boils down to "it's not really getting warmer, it's just a measurement artifact." Sorts of makes you fundamentalist skeptic.


Talk about dismissive. And then name calling. When I see stuff like that, I usually skip over the rest of the comment. Those who simply dismiss others are usually pedalling some kind of faith-based whatever. What's worse- fundamentalist skeptic or fundamentalist believer?. Pangean seems to be the latter. I prefer skeptics over condescending believers. Condescension indicates lack of confidence in your own beliefs and no desire to have a scientific dialogue. calusakat never said it's warmer than measured...it may indeed have been even colder this morning.
Good afternoon all!

Well it is really slow around here today;
I guess everyone is busy doing something else. LOL

I just read the article below in our local SE Florida Sun Sentinel.
I thought is was too funny so posting it here for you all to read.

Now when it is cold enough in South Florida for Ignuanas to start falling from trees it is too cold for us sissies down here! LOL
Take care,
Gams



Fla. cold snap causes iguanas to fall from trees

The Associated Press

8:56 AM EST, January 17, 2009

NAPLES - The chilly weather in southern Florida this week was cold enough to force some iguanas to fall from trees.

Experts say the cold-blooded reptiles go into a deep sleep when the temperature falls into the 40s. Their bodies basically shut off and they lose their grip on the tree.

According to Collier County Domestic Animal Services control supervisor Dana Alger, iguana reports traditionally rise when temperatures drop, as the reptiles seek to warm themselves on asphalt surfaces such as sidewalks, roads and driveways.

Most of the iguanas were once pets that got released when they got too big. The reptiles can grow up to six feet long.
Heavy rain and storms are set to lash western parts of the UK then sweep eastward, prompting a number of severe weather warnings.

In Northern Ireland a motorist was killed when a tree hit her car during high winds and 24,000 homes locally were left without power.

Winds of up to 100mph are forecast there with gales also expected in north-west Scotland and Orkney.

Storms are also expected in western Scotland, Wales and western England.

The motorist killed in Northern Ireland was a woman in her 30s whose car was struck by a tree on Strangford Road in Downpatrick at 1600 GMT.

Link

It's nowhere near yet over, and we have our first fatality... sad. :(
I put some pictures of me playing Dr John to my semi frozen sick KOI on my blog.. in the comments section if anyone wants to look.
Orca,
I went to your blog and looked at your pics of Glitter, your beautful but sick Koi.

what is wrong with her that you are having to treat her? Is it serious?

Thanks for sharing and giving us a heades up.

Cot, looks like England is getting a very bad story. Take care!
Hmm, looks like we could have 60 cm (2 ft) of snow on the ground about a week from now. Most of the forecasts that predicted that this year have gone bust (we peaked at 43 cm (17 in) of snow).
Cotillion -

One of the other bloggers told me you were here, discussing the weather we are expecting here in the UK.

The Marine forecast
from WU shows a great animation of the wave heights produced by the storm, (set it in motion)... and it appears to last until Tuesday. Batten the hatches.
pangean...

Regarding Fourier Analysis...

Such a methodology works great when you are attempting to gather data from a device with a noisy background. In that case, the Fourier analysis could be used to extract the station information from the noise.

Done correctly, the station sending a temperature reading of 17.92c would be read as 17.92c and not 27.92c. A properly designed station would contain an archive that recorded all the information that it uploaded and could be downloaded for verification later.

What is more at issue is the station itself registering incorrect information such as a temperature of 12.56c is read by the device at 14.19c. Without scheduled and consistent calibration, no amount of Fourier analysis will make that type of adjustment.

Notice that I am saying calibration as opposed to zeroing with calibration devices. If a device is calibrated and determined to be 1.72c in error to the positive side, then it is appropriate to adjust the reading to correspond with the known calibrated difference. That sort of adjustment is not an assumption, it is a known fact that is being accounted for.

As I said before, certified calibration on a periodic basis coupled with a strict adherence to placement requirements and all of which is additionally verified and certified are very important in the gathering of ACCURATE HARD DATA.

It is all too important that we accurately interpret our data and not let sloppy data gathering and interpretation lead us down the wrong path. In this case, incorrect analysis means billions of people being impacted and the question in the back of our minds should be...'What if the interpretation is wrong and we hurt the very people we are so gallantly trying to protect?'

Don't you think we should take the time to insure that the information our devices are sending us are accurate and that the devices reflect an honest representation of an unbiased environment?

How hard can it be to make certain that each and every one of our reporting devices are accurate and in a good place? What are we talking about? A few thousand devices...we are talking about billions of lives in the balance.

Covering up sloppy data gathering with software algorithms is simply not right or scientific.
yikes! What a change to the calm and cold winter weather I've had on my holidays in Germany. Now I'm a bit scared about tomorrow when I'm supposed to fly back to the UK. Hopefully the plane won't get shaken too much.
Thank you very much for the information, Cotillion and sandiquiz.
Quoting taistelutipu:
yikes! What a change to the calm and cold winter weather I've had on my holidays in Germany. Now I'm a bit scared about tomorrow when I'm supposed to fly back to the UK. Hopefully the plane won't get shaken too much.
Thank you very much for the information, Cotillion and sandiquiz.

I have just heard from a friend on the South West coast who said.....
"We've already had some terrific storms. Earlier the wind was howling like crazy out there and I could hear things being bashed about in the garden. Then heavy rain was lashing against the windows in the front."

The north is really being bashed at the moment.

taistelutipu - good luck on your journey, but it is meant to blow through overnight and be a little calmer during the day, blowing up again tomorrow night.
Thank you for your good wishes, sandiquiz. I'm going to fly in the evening to Manchester and then I have to go by train to Wales - if the weather allows it. Otherwise I have to stay overnight in Manchester, I just checked some hostels, just not to run out of options.

Good night then
tipsku
Should be fine. However, the next weather demon will be snow... the gales don't really subside for a little while though mostly kept towards the NW of Scotland. Wales/Manchester should be kept out of it.

Yes.. they are significant wave heights. South West also caught some of it, basically the peripheries of Britain.

Latest GFS 0.1 model basically says we're going to be hit by low pressure by low pressure for the next week or so, very unsettled.

Synoptic charts pretty much say the same story.

Tomorrow, with the exception of the warnings still in place including the Tornado watch (which all expire early tomorrow morning), early heavy snow advisories are in place for Scotland, N Ireland and the N of England.

Monday, we have early heavy snow and severe gale warnings for much of the UK...

"There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting most of Scotland and Wales, Northern Ireland and parts of northern and western England.

Over England and Wales, winds could be more of a significant problem than snow, with gales or severe gales in places. However, there is still the potential for periods of snow to give significant accumulations across areas, mostly in the north and west."



"...I can see you... "
Cotillion - Y'all do not give these winter gales names?
Luck tomorrow with your Ravens!

Orca - Hoping Glitter makes a quick return to good health.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 06-20082009
4:00 AM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 52.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 51.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.6S 50.5E - 40 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 21.1S 49.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.4S 50.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Classical satellite imagery shows that the system has progressively become better organized, with deep convection building in the south part of the system during the last 6 hours. System is fed by a good tradewinds inflow, but monsoon flow appears weaker and less efficient (possibly disturb by the northern tip of Madagascar). Wind shear has decreased over the last 24 hours and upper level divergence is good, especially in the northern part with some nice cirrus expension (more limited in the southern part). As the system is over warm sea surface temperatuers in the range of 29C. Conditions appear favorable for further development. Most of the NWP guidance are now in agreement about the development of this system and the philosophy of the track: the system should track of the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge deepening towards a weakness in the pressure field located south of Madagascar.
That English low is very impressive
Link
I just found this you tube video where the waves from Ike hit Cuba. Those waves are higher than the hotels in front they must be five stories!!!
Quoting Cotillion:


"...I can see you... "

I think you mean eye can see you lol pun
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Link
I just found this you tube video where the waves from Ike hit Cuba. Those waves are higher than the hotels in front they must be five stories!!!

Wow
Anyone happen to catch the Delta IV Heavy Launch out of the Cape? Beautiful site. Looked as bright as Venus and Orange from Tampa moving up fast.
that shot of the waves rising well above the buildings at about 1:20 sends a spine shivering chill
95S in the middle, 93S in the upper right.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
WTXS22 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
05:30 AM UTC January 18 2009
================================

An area of convection (95S) located at 20.9S 42.3E or 295 NM west-southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a small, rapidly consolidating banding wrapping into a symmetric, cloud dense overcast-like feature. An 0334z SSMIS color image also indicates rapid consolidation with a well-defined low level circulation center. Animated water vapor imagery shows that an anticyclone has developed over the system with much improved dual channel outflow enhanced by an approaching midlatitude shortwave trough southwest of the system. Upper-level analysis indicates weak to moderate vertical wind shear, additionally, sea surface temperature values are high, near 30C and ocean heat content is favorable.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 MB. Based on the very favorable environment and the rapid consolidation, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
It's really come together in the last 12 hrs.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20082009
10:00 AM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 21.0S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.7S 42.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.6S 41.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 18.2S 42.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)72 HRS: 19.4S 44.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Since 0000z, the system configuration has progressively improved, obvious signs of intensification. Low level circulation center is located thanks to 0248z SSMIS and 0334z SSMI. Today, peripheral bands should concern the western Malagasy coastline from Besalampy to Tulear. Environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification. System is expected to remain quasi-stationary within the next 24 hours and then recurve northeastward then southeastward towards the Malagasy coastline in the wake of Tropical Depression 06.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20082009
10:00 AM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.2S 51.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.2S 50.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 18.8S 49.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 22.6S 48.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 27.1S 50.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System is fed by a good tradewinds inflow, but monsoon flow appears weaker and less efficient (possibly disturbed by the northern tip of Madagascar). Wind shear has slightly decreased over the last 24 hours and upper level divergence is good, especially in the northern part of with some nice cirrus expension (more limited in the southern part). As the system is over warm sea surface temperature in the range is 29C. Conditions appear favorable for further development. Most of the NWP guidance are now in good agreement about the development of this system and the philosophy of the track. The system should track on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge deepening towards a weakness in the pressure field located south of Madagascar.
Skyepony sure did and now it is number by Metéo-France Réunion
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Cotillion - Y'all do not give these winter gales names?
Luck tomorrow with your Ravens!

Orca - Hoping Glitter makes a quick return to good health.



Yeah, some have names. This one wasn't named for some odd reason. Have to double check though. And thanks :)
Quoting Cotillion:


Yeah, some have names. This one wasn't named for some odd reason. Have to double check though. And thanks :)


I saw yesterday on a Swiss stormforum that that storm is named "Frank"...
Link


"Frank" is barely on the radar now..
Starwoman - thanks for that link. There are some great graphics, and really show how the low developed. Frank!! LOL

All quiet here in middle England
waking to 47 degrees in SWFL - yikes it's time for tights...gloves and a hoodie to run this morning.
SWFL Cold Front Surf Update
As we had suspected, the surf never manifested into anything really worth riding yesterday. Today it's cold, cold and more cold and flat with no chance of surf today. The next front approaching us late Sunday/Monday should have a better angle to it and also more energy providing us with a better chance of surf than this past week's small bump. Gulf temps have dropped a full 5 degrees and still falling this week so it's gonna be chilly out there when we jump back into the water. Gulf Temp 60

Good morning.
Y'all stay colder on the west coast it seems Surfmom.
We only made it to 49 yesterday and it's currently 55.2.
The names come from the Berlin University.

The synoptic chart for today hasn't come up yet, so we'll have to see if it was Frank or the next name, Gottfried.

The warnings for Scotland have been downgraded to orange, I guess the storm moved North even faster than anticipated.

Advisories for snow and gales still in effect until Tuesday.

Next system have that seems to be about next weekend... model suggests a strong 954mb storm. (And if that works out, it'd be even lower than that.)
For this cold front Vort -- it's how it came in...on the horizon line was a huge, huge washing machine of waves....but the angle didn't bring the waves to the beach - and now the water is soo cold -- I'm probably stuck on the beach till spring -- not enough fat to be a polar bear
Quoting Cotillion:
The names come from the Berlin University.

The synoptic chart for today hasn't come up yet, so we'll have to see if it was Frank or the next name, Gottfried.





Yup, Frank. That name strikes fear, or what!

All names for lows can be found here.

Rather than name particular strong lows, all of them are named. Same for the highs.

Norwegian Met Office has its own naming system for when they directly affect Norway itself.
It is a cloudy 38 here in Wilmington
Going to have a chilly rain all day....Bummer!
I'm chuggin a coffee and dressing for a walk.
Out the door in a few to start a busy morning!
New video from Futuremet Productions will be posted later today...."The Anatomy Of Single Cellular Storms"
I'm probably stuck on the beach till spring -- not enough fat to be a polar bear

ROFL!

morning MissNadia!!! -- me too! only I'm out for a run......we're the early birds!! Hope you get the walk in b/4 the rain.....
Greetings Cot.... Looking like some nasty,nasty weather.... can't imagine your ancestors living in non-heated castles or homes. Gives a whole new meaning to the word Hearth.... My genetics are defective for that kind of weather.... I'd survive the Sahara far better then the cold that's for sure.

Got a busy day ahead - so I'm out the door - peeking in throughout the day
Hello All and GM, had a low temp here in Zephyrhills FL of 29.3 last night. No wind perfect cooling with a little frost. Time for another pot of java. have a great day.
two storms by Madagascar I think we have a cyclone coming on
morning all4, how cold is it in your neck of the country. still going to get that big snow you were talking about?
Quoting severstorm:
morning all4, how cold is it in your neck of the country. still going to get that big snow you were talking about?


Hey dude...I haven't seen ya since that night you were flooding in Kenner. How did you and your neighbors make out from that?
Robin McKie in New York The Observer, Sunday 18 January 2009
Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama's first administration, he added.

Soaring carbon emissions are already causing ice-cap melting and threaten to trigger global flooding, widespread species loss and major disruptions of weather patterns in the near future. "We cannot afford to put off change any longer," said Hansen. "We have to get on a new path within this new administration. We have only four years left for Obama to set an example to the rest of the world. America must take the lead."

Hansen said current carbon levels in the atmosphere were already too high to prevent runaway greenhouse warming. Yet the levels are still rising despite all the efforts of politicians and scientists.

Only the US now had the political muscle to lead the world and halt the rise, Hansen said. Having refused to recognise that global warming posed any risk at all over the past eight years, the US now had to take a lead as the world's greatest carbon emitter and the planet's largest economy. Cap-and-trade schemes, in which emission permits are bought and sold, have failed, he said, and must now be replaced by a carbon tax that will imposed on all producers of fossil fuels. At the same time, there must be a moratorium on new power plants that burn coal - the world's worst carbon emitter.
Quoting severstorm:
morning all4, how cold is it in your neck of the country. still going to get that big snow you were talking about?

actually it just got up to 33 degrees so it probably won't snow also the chance of precipitation dropped to 30% so this year mother nature will taunt us with snow all winter long
thanks for asking
OK i,ll be back in an hour and a half
Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned...

I cannot honestly believe that anyone listens to what that guy says anymore. I suppose that as long as journalists are ringing the phone...
atmoaggie, you must have me confused with someone else. I live on the west side of FL above Tampa. we got hardly any rain from Fay. nice to hear from you. Hope ya'll made out fine with Fay.
Does seem weird to think something is going to be that bad in 4 yrs but you never no.
Quoting severstorm:
atmoaggie, you must have me confused with someone else. I live on the west side of FL above Tampa. we got hardly any rain from Fay. nice to hear from you. Hope ya'll made out fine with Fay.


Oh...oops.

There was a guy here with a handle very much like yours from Kenner, LA (west of NOLA), that was blogging through something like 5.5 inches of rain in 2.5 hours about a month ago. Street flooding and a little water in his house.

Fay was a whole lot of nothing over here in LA. Never really made it here. Now Gustav and Ike were a bit of a different story...
Quoting presslord:
Robin McKie in New York The Observer, Sunday 18 January 2009
Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth.


How can anyone take that guy seriously when his name is so eerily similar to Jim Henson, the creator of the Muppets?

Perhaps they're one and the same... back from the dead!
Quoting Cotillion:


How can anyone take that guy seriously when his name is so eerily similar to Jim Henson, the creator of the Muppets?

Perhaps they're one and the same... back from the dead!


Maybe this is he...



The resemblance is striking...

And one further thing...

'Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama's first administration, he added.'

I don't care whether it's the climate scientist himself saying this, or a result of journalistic spin.

I'll even put it into capitals.

THE EARTH WILL BE JUST FINE, HEATED OR NO.

THE EARTH DOES NOT NEED SAVING.

It's only civilisation that may have a problem.

Earth only has an issue if a rogue star is on a collision course with it, or when the Sun becomes a Red Giant. Until that point, it'll still be here whether we are or not. :)
Tampa- snow is mentioned in your forecast discussion for Tuesday night.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&gloss ary=1
Quoting Cotillion:
And one further thing...

'Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama's first administration, he added.'

I don't care whether it's the climate scientist himself saying this, or a result of journalistic spin.

I'll even put it into capitals.

THE EARTH WILL BE JUST FINE, HEATED OR NO.

THE EARTH DOES NOT NEED SAVING.

It's only civilisation that may have a problem.

Earth only has an issue if a rogue star is on a collision course with it, or when the Sun becomes a Red Giant. Until that point, it'll still be here whether we are or not. :)

I actually disagree with both of you the world is not going to blow up or end in five years because of global warming but that certainly doesn't mean that it isn't an issue and that it has no effect
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I actually disagree with both of you the world is not going to blow up or end in five years because of global warming but that certainly doesn't mean that it isn't an issue and that it has no effect


I never said it wasn't. I just take issue with exaggeration, which this clearly is.

Inevitably, global warming has just become a political battleground with soundbites being lobbed from one side to the other.

Scientists should leave the bitesize politics to those who do it best, the politicians. Focus on the science, and we all will be better for it.

Seychelles Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Warning #4
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 16.9S 50.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 50.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 19.7S 49.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 24.5S 49.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 30.4S 51.0E - 40 knots (Devenant Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
Low level circulation center is partially exposed south of the convective activity. A persistent vertical wind shear doesn't allow the system to intensify significantly. System is expected to recurve southward towards a polar trough. Over this new track, vertical wind shear should weaken but low level inflow is in the same time expected to be poor on both sides (low pressure in the south and monsoon flow cutted by Madagascar). Intensification should also be limited and this system is not expected to reach tropical cyclone stage if it drifts close along the eastern Malagasy coastline where it however generates a lot of precipitation. Within the next days, this thundery and rainy activity could also concern Réunion and Mauritius islands.

System #2
----------

Seychelles Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
=============================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 21.5S 41.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.4S 40.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 20.8S 40.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 19.8S 42.1E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.1S 45.1E - 60 knots (DEPRESSION sur terre)

Additional Information
========================
Environmental conditions improves with good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one related to the rebuilding high pressures in the southwest. System is expected to strengthen regularly and to drift slowly westward within the next 24 hours then to recurve northeast and eastward in the wake of Tropical Depression SIX. It could make landfall beyond 48 hours to 60 hours near Morondave at tropical cyclone stage. A more early landfall would limit intensification.
Severe gale warnings here have been withdrawn, seems that we'll go a few days without any nasties, at least.

Just a bit of snow for the Highlands of Scotland tomorrow.

I'd be keeping an eye more towards the end of the week.
Captain Carbon!


Photobucket

I see Presslord left the biscuit of interest this morning
My daughter-in-law came up with a perfect analogy to the carbon credit.

Everybody is given a card granting them permission to kill one person a year without punishment. I decide that the card is a disgusting concept and choose not to use it. Soon it is declared that a person can buy that killing card from me and use it to legally kill one additional person this year. A harsh yet accurate comparison.

If I am doing things that mean less carbon is generated it is not right for me to sell those reductions so that others can continue life as usual, spewing carbon and pollution into the air.

That being said...

Somewhere around 2040 global population will be 12 billion. Double today's population...double the need for food...double the need for shelter and clothing and transportation. By 2070 the population could easily be quadruple today. What then???

No matter how efficient our control of carbon might become, it will be for naught because of the huge population overload we will experience before the end of this century. Our attention must be focused on the population growth and the needs of the people planet wide.

Do we control the population? If you say yes...how do you propose doing that?

How much of this planets resources are needed to feed just one person. How much land...how much water...how much energy...how much ocean?????

Dr.'s Hanson and Masters are little more than puppets being controlled by other puppet masters. Instead of demanding quality and integrity from the instruments that provide the information which they then analyze...they choose the lazy way out by contriving software algorithms that are then declared an accurate equivalent. What shameless hogwash. It may be science...political science... and they are not very good at political science. They a simply shills for tax hounds to fill their pockets while defrauding people that it is for their own good.

Calibrate and verify...anything less is not science.
re: post 163....he's just a trouble maker.....
Expanding Eco-Footprint


An Ecological Footprint is a quantitative measurement of how much ecologically productive land and water a defined population unit needs to support its current consumption and render harmless its wastes.

Everything we use for our daily needs and activities stem from raw natural resources. The Ecological Footprint, measured in acres or hectares, calculates the amount of Earth's bio productive space needed to keep a certain population unit living and consuming at its current levels.

Link
#164

Don't you know that the World will end by 2012 anyway!????

;)



168. P451
The Google Carbon Footprint

How much CO2 does a google search produce if a google search produces CO2? Well, Harvard physicist Alex Wissner-Gross did the math:

… a typical search generates about 7g of CO2 Boiling a kettle generates about 15g. “Google operates huge data centres around the world that consume a great deal of power,” said Alex Wissner-Gross, a Harvard University physicist whose research on the environmental impact of computing is due out soon. “A Google search has a definite environmental impact.”

Google is secretive about its energy consumption and carbon footprint. It also refuses to divulge the locations of its data centres. However, with more than 200m internet searches estimated globally daily, the electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions caused by computers and the internet is provoking concern. A recent report by Gartner, the industry analysts, said the global IT industry generated as much greenhouse gas as the world’s airlines - about 2% of global CO2 emissions. “Data centres are among the most energy-intensive facilities imaginable,” said Evan Mills, a scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. Banks of servers storing billions of web pages require power.
RE:164. calusakat
RE:166. vortfix
"Do we control the population? If you say yes...how do you propose doing that?
How much of this planets resources are needed to feed just one person. How much land...how much water...how much energy...how much ocean?????"

Keep in mind, we short people need less food - if we are considering reducing the population ... um...'nough said :)
Good day all,

Well, while many are shivering in Winter conditions -
Just wondering if the rest of you chart-watchers have noticed what the GFS has been doing last few cycle runs over the tropical Atlantic toward the last week of January (192 hrs and beyond)... Yeah, I know, long-range and all that, but sure looks like it wants to develop a rather early Tropical Storm Ana! Appears a low tries to develop, perhaps along that increasing convection we currently see along the ITCZ, slowly crawling WWD approaching 40W right now... moving along or into Brazil, with low shaping up as it lifts NWD back into the Atlantic above Amazon River delta / Guianas into Atlantic SE of lower Windwards...

Of course, as said, that's about 10 days out and beyond so usual caveats apply... I laughed when I 1st saw it 3 days ago, then subsequent runs played out similar versions, sometimes indicating a full-blown TS, other runs just a rainy tropical low that remains inland... We'll have to see if anything actually comes of it... and if it does, biggest concern will most likely be very heavy flooding rains down there...

Looking at upper air environment projections - esp with a sprawling, favorable upper high that's been locked in and bulging NWD from South America most of the Winter months (as often does) - a tropical cyclone could be in the realm of possibility... also might mention the rather strong Azores High that's set up providing steady ELY trades...

LOL, no - it wont hit FL... or N'Awlins... doubt it could survive to reach the Windwards...

Cheers!
Interesting stuff, DocNDswamp.
I am at 11N 61W (Trinidad), and will be watching that area too.
We are in the Dry Season (climatology) but it has been raining. 1.5 " yesterday. That area approaching 40 west has a large amount of moisture associated with it, and more moisture to its west as well.
New Video from Futuremet Productions

Anatomy Of Single Cell Convective storms (Tutorial)


Normal Quality



High Quality



High Definition (Best quality)



Written Version

Single cell thunderstorms are associated with little or no vertical wind shear. The absence of wind shear causes these storms to have a uniform shape. As you can see on the image to the right, the cumuliform cloud is rising perfectly upward, with no horizontal Tilt. These systems are strictly mesoscale gamma (c) events, and rarely last up to an hour. Thus, these storms have a little or no chance of being classified as %u201Csevere%u201D.
Single cells are like typical summer afternoon thunderstorms, form during unstable, and relatively barotropic conditions usually during diurnal maximum. Like all convective storms, single cells undergo a: growing stage, mature stage, and a dissipation stage. We will explore the dynamics during each of these stages.

Growing Stage

During a hot sunny afternoon, the earth's surface temperature increases due to solar radiation. The heat that is absorbed by the surface then releases, and warms the surrounding air in contact with it by conduction. Subsequently, the air disperses the energy through convection. When the air near the surface is warmer than its surroundings above, it expands, acquire positive buoyancy, and rises to higher altitudes. As the air continues to rises it will cool adiabatically, and goes through condensation, which produces the cumuliform clouds.

Mature Stage

The condensed air releases latent heat, which warms the ambient air further, and enables it rise higher. Once the air reaches the apex altitude or the equilibrium level (EL), it will diverge and sink again. Now, because vertical wind shear is low, the upper level divergence is quite weak. A downdraft will eventually form at the rear of the cumulonimbus cloud, where the inflow is weakest. The downdraft is the air area of sinking air within convective storms, and it is often associated with rain, and hail. When the downdraft initially touches the surface, it creates a synthetic baroclinic zone, which causes dynamic forcing , and briefly enhance the updraft

Dissipitation Stage

Ultimately, the downdraft will overwhelm the updraft, because the energy needed for a thunderstorm to sustain itself is not omnipresent. Furthermore, the lack of vertical wind shear causes the downdraft to fall upon the updraft, which enhances the degenerating process further. The thunderstorm will rapidly degenerate, and the precipitation will be light rain and drizzle. Finally when the storm dies of completely, only high cirrus clouds will remain.
Hey Pottery,
Yes it's just something to keep an eye on... Glad you're getting some rain, of course ya don't need a flood to alleviate the dry conditions... ;)
And yes, a decent amount moisture along the ITCZ... Guess I mentioned approaching near 40W as appears some slight cyclonic turning (perhaps closer to 38W) currently with the convection where might be a broad, weak low center...
Interesting.

Well, the last Ana was early after all... perhaps it's a trend. ;)
True, Doc.
In fact, the ground all over the Island is well saturated since November. There are still puddles and bogs all over my garden, and it has not rained today. The soil is predominantly clay, which drains very slowly anyway.
But heavy rainfall in 10 days or so will cause more problems in the hills along the North of the island. Landslides are a real possibility there, if the Models play out.

Great Tutorial, FUTUREMET. Thanks.
Hello, Cot.
You thawing out yet ??
RE:143 Futuremet

Nicely done - Thanks
Just spoke to my brother in Port-of-Spain, the Capital, at the western end (almost) of the Northern Range.
The loud, constant noise in the background was indeed heavy rain falling, for the past 40 mins.
It is a lovely clear day here 15 miles south of him, but I can see the cloud over his head......
LOL, no - it wont hit FL... or N'Awlins..

The always important head-off-at-the-pass statement...especially if we were in the season.
Thanks everyone
LOL, Atmoaggie...
Yeah, gotta issue the standard disclaimer before alarm sets in on the masses!

Sully, that's an awesome view of that European meteorite... looks very similar to the one on Nov 20th over W Canada... I was lucky enough to see it here in SE LA that evening! Was backing up another endless load of Gustav limbs to my burn pile, when saw it - a huge greenish white ball / flash with a long trail!
Cotillion...

Is it the end of THE world or the end of A world?

;-)
Quoting Cotillion:
And one further thing...

'Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of Nasa scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama's first administration, he added.'

I don't care whether it's the climate scientist himself saying this, or a result of journalistic spin.

I'll even put it into capitals.

THE EARTH WILL BE JUST FINE, HEATED OR NO.

THE EARTH DOES NOT NEED SAVING.

It's only civilisation that may have a problem.

Earth only has an issue if a rogue star is on a collision course with it, or when the Sun becomes a Red Giant. Until that point, it'll still be here whether we are or not. :)


I like that thought.. that's right.. the Earth is just fine.. it is wheather us humans can live here or not is the questions......

and I have a feeling even us humans can adjust to the always with us climate change.
Hi everyone.. I see Doc has got us wondering about Ana???

Wouldn't that be just about right with all the wacky weather we've had recently... in the middle of all the cold and snow and ice; let's have a tropical storm or hurricane LOL

just kidding of course... NO to tropical storms this time of year.. I'm in the middle of planting my garden LOL

got to go.. good afternoon my friends.
Oh my goodness... this is about the 4th blog I have killed by posting in it today !


I'm sorry!!!
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 06-20082009
22:00 PM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 17.0S 50.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.8S 49.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 20.8S 48.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 26.1S 49.3E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 31.7S 52.1E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
The center has been relocated more to the north than previously located. The low level circulation center is still located in the southern portion of the convective activity. This last one has not appeared very consolidated during the day with some cycle. However the last one that have started around 14z seems to be more persistent. In fact, it seems that we are close to the moderate tropical storm stage. A decreasing southerly vertical wind shear persists, system seem to have begun its turn towards the southwest (Current motion and speed, SW/6kts), on this track vertical wind shear should weaken but low level inflow is in the same time expected to be poor on both sides (low pressure in the south and monsoon flow cutted by Madagascar). Intensification should also be limited and this system is not expected to reach tropical cyclone stage as it drifts close along the eastern Malagasy coastline. However, it will generate a lot of precipitation, within the next days. This thundery and rainy activity could also concern Réunion and Mauritius islands.
Gamma I kill this blog all the time. XP
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20082009
16:00 PM Réunion January 18 2009
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 21.6S 41.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.6S 40.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.5S 41.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 19.8S 42.8E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.0S 46.6E - 40 knots (DEPRESSION sur terre)

Additional Information
========================
Environmental conditions improves with good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one related to the rebuilding high pressures in the southwest. System is expected to strengthen regularly and to drift slowly westward within the next 24 hours then to recurve northeast and eastward in the wake of Tropical Depression SIX. It could make landfall beyond 48 hours to 60 hours near Morondave at tropical cyclone stage. A more early landfall would limit intensification.
Quoting seflagamma:
Oh my goodness... this is about the 4th blog I have killed by posting in it today !


I'm sorry!!!


Probably has to do with the Eagles-Cardinals playing
LOL, HGW and Gams... I think it's my fault for blog-killing with the GFS hype - at least you're providing the real thing, HGW!

Hey Gams,
LOL, your garden has more to fear from any potential cold threat over next few weeks or so, than any TS Ana... And that cold threat looks minimal for now...

More LOL, I still have my 3 "pet" cherry tomato plants, planted last May that - produced late summer... survived the floods of August... survived the torture of Gustav and Ike... regrew / made more tomatoes... have since suffered thru 15 Frosts and 4 light Freezes (had bountiful flowers in Dec)... and are still alive with several slow-to-ripen lil tomatoes on 'em now! Granted, they look pathetic and won't be displayed on Garden of the Month... but I'm proud of their tenacity!

Gotta run, some homegrown cauliflower are ready for plucking / consumption this eve...

PS - My apologies Jeff, for getting off-topic... Oh wait, I think I mentioned some weather in all that... ;)
Hi Doc!
Great to see you blogging today.

Now, about that south FL cold weather....this came across a bit ago:


FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-182145-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK
239 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2009

...POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTERIOR REGIONS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK OVER
GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND COLLIER, WESTERN PALM BEACH AND WESTERN
BROWARD COUNTIES. PEOPLE SHOULD ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
STEPS TO PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS SCENARIO BUT IT APPEARS
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON AND THE COLDEST
SINCE JANUARY 3, 2008. IF FACT, IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IT COULD
BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 2003. PEOPLE ARE URGED
TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

Hiya Vort!

Uh oh... I spoke too soon minimizing that S FL cold threat, lol...
Perhaps I should analyze the near term probabilities closer than the long range possibilities on the GFS... ;)
Hey all~ Hope that gfs is over done on the FL freeze~ been fairly consistant in theatning us down here in the south 1/2~ on the last day of the run, for days now.

On Ana the only thing in it's favor is the much warmer than normal patch of water there & the MJO has finally swung wide & headed this way.
Hey Skye!
Thanks for the MJO info, I hadn't looked at that in a while... Appears another factor in it's favor maybe... The forecasted sfc to upper pattern on several of the GFS runs looks conducive overall for a few days in that period... But it remains interesting speculation now...

"Ana above the Guyanas" has a nice ring to it, though!
Later all... ;)
Afternoon all.... Glitter (the sick Koi) has entered a new rehab Centre, further pictures are available in the comments section of my blog.

Any input on the possible east coast storm Tuesday? Local meteoroligist is saying it will be too far out to sea to affect us much here in coastal NC.
Quoting seflagamma:
Oh my goodness... this is about the 4th blog I have killed by posting in it today !


I'm sorry!!!

oh don't worry I kill blogs too but that could be because I usually post at 6 am but even so
Temps in the 30's for us folks in so. fla. this week. Then we warm back up to around 80 the following week. Love the Cold! Makes up for all those hot summers. Go Steelers!!!!
Forecasted for overnight lows in the mid 30s here in South Florida. Been a while since we got down that low. Highs may not escape the 50s on Wednesday.
Quoting largeeyes:
Any input on the possible east coast storm Tuesday? Local meteoroligist is saying it will be too far out to sea to affect us much here in coastal NC.


Depends on the model you go with. The GFS nothing but flurries for NC. The nam light accumulation. I heard the euro model was giving us a big storm but my computer crashed annd I've lost all my links so I havent seen it. Can someone give me the link to the euro model?
Record lows for West Palm on Wednesday 32 and Thursday 28...both in 1985.
Quoting Skyepony:
ecmwf


Thanks. I'm going to be begging for alot more links during hurricane season.
Quoting Drakoen:
Forecasted for overnight lows in the mid 30s here in South Florida. Been a while since we got down that low. Highs may not escape the 50s on Wednesday.


Quoting Drakoen:
Forecasted for overnight lows in the mid 30s here in South Florida. Been a while since we got down that low. Highs may not escape the 50s on Wednesday.


Snow :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Record lows for West Palm on Wednesday 32 and Thursday 28...both in 1985.


Snow :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Snow :)


No. There's no moisture for that.
Good Evening !!!
Cold Front Surf Alert - calling all Florida Polar Bears
Monday morning will awaken with surf for the GC. A long fetch across the gulf will setup and provide some choppy cold front surf to start the week. Looks waist high range on Monday building up to chest high on Tuesday. A good chance for cold clean leftovers Wednesday morning. Waist high swell with NNE winds and temps in the low to mid 40's by then. Keep in mind it's gonna be cold the whole time and your gonna want your full-suit, booties, hot water, whatever you got to warm you up.(Captain Jack Sparrow where are you?)* Have a good week.
*RUM
Not sure if I'm going to participate in this one -- the air temp and water temp are at my limits ( I don't think good when I'm freezing) If I get wet ... they'll hear me in Canada
Must be one potent system on the NAM here ;P
Link
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIX
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ERIC (06-20082009)
4:00 AM Runion January 19 2009
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (994 hPa) located at 17.5S 49.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.5S 48.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION OVERLAND)
24 HRS: 21.7S 48.8E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modere)
48 HRS: 26.6S 50.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
72 HRS: 31.9S 57.1E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
Scatterometric Data (ASCAT Pass of 17.50z shows some no contaminated 35 knots winds in the eastern semi-circle) and satellite data (curved band that measures 5.5/10 on enhanced infrared radar imagery) allow a DT at 2.5 . Consequently, the system has been named Eric by the Madagascar weather services. However convection is warmer since 20.30z probably due to the proximity of landmass.

System has maintained its southwest track at 6kts and should make landfall or pass very near the eastern coast of Fenerive/Tamative area of Madagascar within the next hours.

Available NWP models are in good agreement for this scenario with a southward track along the eastern coast of Madagascar. On this track vertical wind shear will be weak but system should not intensify due to interaction with land. Wind structure is dissymetric (greater winds extension in the eastern semi-circle).

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20082009
4:00 AM Runion January 19 2009
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 21.4S 41.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.1S 41.2E - 35 knots (Tempte Tropicale Modere)
24 HRS: 20.9S 41.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 20.5S 43.2E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 22.3S 45.9E - 20 knots (DEPRESSION sur terre)

Additional Information
========================
System is beneath very favorable environmental conditions under the upper level ridge with a good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one related to the rebuilding high pressure in the southwest.

System is expected to strengthen regularly and as the low level circulation center has a good presentation on the WINDSAT Pass at 15.48z, it does not seem unlikely that a rapid intensification spell could occur within the next 48/60 hours before the system makes landfall.

Most available NWP models show an eastern turn towards the wester coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both track and speed. Current forecast is based on a general consensus.

Interest along the southwestern coast of Madagascar should closely monitor the progress of this system.
LOL Surfmom.
That is too cold! You are just going to have to move South, you know.....
Thanks Drak.... I didn't want to be the one to pop Orca's bubble.

Looks like I'm going to have a very hard week at working outside at the Polo barn. Will have to bran mash the horses again - to help avoid cold weather colic - All things will be stiff -- leather, my fingers and my bones ....

"Wishing can not bring Spring glory, nor cause winter to cease" Pawnee Proverb
oops that dvorak intensity for Eric is T2.5 not 3.5
Right you are Pottery.... I'm plotting those latitudes already -- just got to get YoungBuck into college and then bum, bum bummmm - I'm going south -- to a place where Wetsuits are an oddity and cold is 70 degrees.... Got two main locations I'm zoning in on, one has tequila the other Rum
Quoting Drakoen:


No. There's no moisture for that.


I would be happy with a little flurry... ecstatic with an inch :)
Quoting surfmom:
Right you are Pottery.... I'm plotting those latitudes already -- just got to get YoungBuck into college and then bum, bum bummmm - I'm going south -- to a place where Wetsuits are an oddity and cold is 70 degrees.... Got two main locations I'm zoning in on, one has tequila the other Rum




Surfmom's Aquatic ReHab Centre
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be happy with a little flurry... ecstatic with an inch :)


This. :)
Quoting Drakoen:
Must be one potent system on the NAM here ;P
Link


"Day after tomorrow"
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be happy with a little flurry... ecstatic with an inch :)
Bite your tongue -- all our tourists that basked in the sun would be upset....you know those Pastys, commonly known as CANADIAN BACON
Quoting surfmom:
Bite your tongue -- all our tourists that basked in the sun would be upset....you know those Pastys, commonly known as CANADIAN BACON


French Canadians... not really Canadian Bacon as per say.
Come on mom...one day of snow in so. fla...is that so bad with the summers and hurricanes we put up with?
Wow Orca -- It worked !! -- Geeze I am soo HAPPY, I could finally throw a good idea your way.... I just love being helpful... I am a pleaser. LOL

It was so funny yesterday...I'm staring at the horse water trough -- my brain is ticking -- "why is this capturing my attention..." then Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter"
Quoting surfmom:
Wow Orca -- It worked !! -- Geeze I am soo HAPPY, I could finally throw a good idea your way.... I just love being helpful... I am a pleaser. LOL

It was so funny yesterday...I'm staring at the horse water trough -- my brain is ticking -- "why is this capturing my attention..." then Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter"


We even named it after you.. more pictures in the comments section of my blog
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Come on mom...one day of snow in so. fla...is that so bad with the summers and hurricanes we put up with?


If you want snow Geoffrey - open your freezer and scrap off the sides ....... maybe step inside...LOL
This SunBeachBunny has no yearning for the stuff.
The only good this cold brings are dead Florida Fleas, horse flies and....... that's about it.

I have two Mango Trees blooming inappropriately....... this will not be good for them at all.

You could FedEx Glitter down to me, once we warm up a bit..... you know for extended rehab.
Quoting surfmom:
You could FedEx Glitter down to me, once we warm up a bit..... you know for extended rehab.


Do you take 2 year old kids in? I've got mine in a box, ready to go!

(Ahh, here is the tape.)
Quoting surfmom:


If you want snow Geoffrey - open your freezer and scrap off the sides ....... maybe step inside...LOL
This SunBeachBunny has no yearning for the stuff.
The only good this cold brings are dead Florida Fleas, horse flies and....... that's about it.

I have two Mango Trees blooming inappropriately....... this will not be good for them at all.



Got 6 inches overnight...
You think that's cold? Try school being canceled on Friday because of -20 degree windchills. yay!!!
you should censor those mango trees... lol

good to see you again.
"Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter""

Did 'Glitter' have a drinking problem? Drugs?
You know, just reading these posts from you people, makes me feel Warm all over. LOL


Quoting surfmom:
You could FedEx Glitter down to me, once we warm up a bit..... you know for extended rehab.

Glitter hell, I could use some sunshine... umm mind you.. now that your being shipped atm's kids..I think I will stay here.
Addicted to Submergence......
Glitter, that is. Not me...
Quoting presslord:
"Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter""

Did 'Glitter' have a drinking problem? Drugs?


I think she had one to many of Surfmoms pyrate drinks
Quoting presslord:
"Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter""

Did 'Glitter' have a drinking problem? Drugs?

SNOW AND ICE .......
Glitter should have known better.
Never mix your snow and ice......
Quoting presslord:
"Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter""

Did 'Glitter' have a drinking problem? Drugs?


Or was Glitter the drug??? lol
Quoting pottery:
Glitter should have known better.
Never mix your snow and ice......


that's a slippery slope... lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


I think she had one to many of Surfmoms pyrate drinks
LOL...don't blame me Orca...she got sick on your watch -- I've been telling you to bring the tribe to Florida for months......and BTW my pyrate drinks warm the soul and spirit -- never had anyone go BELLY up on my watch
cold, raw, fish = sushi
Quoting pottery:
Glitter should have known better.
Never mix your snow and ice......
See Pottery knows the deal!!!
LOL Hurristat......
Quoting presslord:
cold, raw, fish = sushi
I was just going to ask if you had another biscuit to leave on the blog...clearly you beat me to the punch..... you are soo harsh Presslord.... that's like suggesting one of my chickens for dinner LOL
241, this is getting macabre
Cant eat it yet Press, its still finning.....
Quoting presslord:
"Eureka - "a fish rehab for Glitter""

Did 'Glitter' have a drinking problem? Drugs?


it's even more funny when you take a step back... drunk fish??? aaahhh... i love the offseason.
Quoting Orcasystems:

Glitter hell, I could use some sunshine... umm mind you.. now that your being shipped atm's kids..I think I will stay here.
OOOOPS, sorry NO KIDS, done with the kids -- I'll take whales, Captains, Pirates, Peter Pan wannabe's ...no kids.... I'm getting my second wind and wiping snotty noses is not on the list.
I beleive the Japanese like them flopping around on the cutting board
Steelers are beating themselves...On another note I find interesting...does anyone believe in the La Palma tsumami scenerio?
Talking about the Off Season. The GFS is fixing to create a tropical storm around here, 10 days out.
Should I be boarding up? Or just bored?
Quoting pottery:
Talking about the Off Season. The GFS is fixing to create a tropical storm around here, 10 days out.
Should I be boarding up? Or just bored?


Think you should bunker out with JFV :)
The La Palma Tsunami is a very real thing. Especially if you live in West Palm Beach, or nearby.
Where are you, WPB ??
Better to be bored, then boarding.... unless it's w/a surfboard -- I'm guessing it's just a dress rehearsal...but it's a good excuse to start hoarding Rum
251, hahahahah. LOL
Mom, I could start hoarding anyway, just in case.
There was an old tradition here, that when your first son was born, you bought a barrel of rum, and stashed it somewhere. He was supposed to get it, on his 21 st B-Day.
Dont know what happened to that noble tradition....
lol pottery...i liked that one!
"dress rehearsal" That pair of words conjured up ghastly images, of Presslord.....
Please dont use that kind of language........
After raising my first born -- I get the whole damn keg
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Think you should bunker out with JFV :)


Ohhhhhh, boy!
Evening all

Hope everyone is well. I see we have drunken fish in here tonight. Interesting.

Need y'all to help me out. How bout wishcast these snow percentages up for me.
When I typed that Pottery I hesitated -- don't want Press going back to that again-- bad habits are so easy to return to
Eric & 09S


Pottery~ the last surface trough was impressive & the MJO just swung wide & is headed our way. I wouldn't dig out the boards but it might be a topic.
Yeah, I know what you mean, Surfmom.
And 21 yrs zipps by. And now, we could be sipping our own stash of 20 something year old, aged rum, while we try to convince them that drinking is not good for them..........
Its just not fair. We should have bought the barrel anyway...
I hear you, Skye.
La Palma is the island that will one day split, half falling in to the Atlantic, and push a massive tsunami toward the entire east coast of the US correct?

Seems pretty real to me...
SJ....shut up with the Lowcountry snow wishcasting....
Hey Pottery..do you make your Rum?
Quoting StormJunkie:
La Palma is the island that will one day split, half falling in to the Atlantic, and push a massive tsunami toward the entire east coast of the US correct?

Seems pretty real to me...


Doing the Google, there are a lot of detractors from that theory.
Quoting presslord:
cold, raw, fish = sushi



Hmm awful expensive sushi.. but its an option.
Quoting surfmom:
I was just going to ask if you had another biscuit to leave on the blog...clearly you beat me to the punch..... you are soo harsh Presslord.... that's like suggesting one of my chickens for dinner LOL


Hmmmm chicken :)
268
A few years I saw a program about that BIG crack in the island.... scared me.... I bought a weather radio with tsunami warning! better safe than sorry! LOL;
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Doing the Google, there are a lot of detractors from that theory.


I watched a show on it.. it sounded feasible
It'd only hang around for 12 hours or so press, you can deal with it. Need to take the jeep out and watch everyone trying to drive around down here.
Nadia. Make Rum ? Never thought about that.
Sounds like hard work to me, planting all that sugar cane and stuff.
Quoting MissNadia:
268
A few years I saw a program about that BIG crack in the island.... scared me.... I bought a weather radio with tsunami warning! better safe than sorry! LOL;


Have to send you back to anchorage.. you will be safe there.. ROFLMAO
Quoting Orcasystems:



Hmm awful expensive sushi.. but its an option.
OMG -- I can see you guys are Hunters.... not nurturers.... Orca, isn't that like ummm ...eating your young???
Quoting StormJunkie:
It'd only hang around for 12 hours or so press, you can deal with it. Need to take the jeep out and watch everyone trying to drive around down here.


Snow... Florida.. please say yes...
Quoting surfmom:
OMG -- I can see you guys are Hunters.... not nurturers.... Orca, isn't that like ummm ...eating your young???


Umm do you like your eggs sunny side up.. or easy over?
Surfmom....Ya gonna fry up one of those yardbirds for me when I come visit?
I saw it also...think on the Disovery or History channel...Gives me chills just to think of something like that happening.
Quoting MissNadia:
Hey Pottery..do you make your Rum?
I'm just all ears for this one... I hope you don't use Glitters waste water
Quoting presslord:
Surfmom....Ya gonna fry up one of those yardbirds for me when I come visit?
.... yeaa I got one --Big black Mama -- she's got BREASTS
if your cable or satellite service provider doesn't offer a channel called "Fit TV"....I'd highly recommend you contact them about adding it.....
Surfmom. Eating your young ? If my kids were born as fresh kingfish, they'd be gonners.......
Quoting surfmom:
.... yeaa I got one --Big black Mama -- she's got BREASTS


Damn.. where is that Halo polish gone.
Don't think it will get quite that far south Orca. Even here the discussion sounds pretty iffy. Although they at lease mention the potential for accumulating snow...
Mom, see post 274
my wife just fetched my 20 year old daughter from her apartment at college....she has some sort of 'stomach bug'....I won no points when she got here and I said "If ya can't handle your booze, don't drink it!".....now everybody's all mad at me....
Quoting StormJunkie:
Don't think it will get quite that far south Orca. Even here the discussion sounds pretty iffy. Although they at lease mention the potential for accumulating snow...


Just needs to get to the pan handle.. hmm or even Tampa, and I would be very happy camper
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm do you like your eggs sunny side up.. or easy over?
This feels like a trick question......
Quoting presslord:
my wife just fetched my 20 year old daughter from her apartment at college....she has some sort of 'stomach bug'....I won no points when she got here and I said "If ya can't handle your booze, don't drink it!".....now everybody's all mad at me....


Your booze.. or her own?
Ah, Press. What a lovely, Tender thing to say to you ailing daughter.
BIG loss of points there LOL
Quoting surfmom:
This feels like a trick question......


Nope.. would I do that to you :)
She's still on my payroll...everything she 'owns' is mine....including her booze.....
Quoting presslord:
She's still on my payroll...everything she 'owns' is mine....including her booze.....


So technically.... you have been wasting perfectly good booze?

tsk tsk...
Quoting Orcasystems:


So technically.... you have been wasting perfectly good booze?

tsk tsk...



you're right....youth....and booze....shouldn't be wasted on the young....
Good point Orc. A complete Waste
Quoting pottery:
Good point Orc. A complete Waste


Sort of puts that dress fetish into perspective now......
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope.. would I do that to you :)

Methinks you are very capable of digging a hole for me to fall into....

298.....
Thats Fantastic !
Oh MY !!
go ahead....keep it up....

...bikini season will soon be upon us....
Quoting surfmom:

Methinks you are very capable of digging a hole for me to fall into....



True, but I would never push you into it :)
Quoting presslord:
go ahead....keep it up....

...bikini season will soon be upon us....


Shudder......
OMG..what a touchdown!!!!
Quoting presslord:



you're right....youth....and booze....shouldn't be wasted on the young....


Experience & Practice -- nothing like it
Evening all,

Surfmom - What kind of chickens do you have?

When I was a youngster we had a pet duck that kept eating the neighbors flowers, so said duck was banished to my grandparent's farm. We were visiting the farm, one Sunday - our usual supper was fried chicken. After eating our fill and expressing our appreciation, we were told we had just eaten QuackQuack
I think we should desist, Orca.
That bikini threat has me very concerned......
Quoting presslord:
go ahead....keep it up....

...bikini season will soon be upon us....
From your lips to the heavens Ears........ and Orca's talking snow... which do you prefer.... chick in neoprene or chick in bikini

wait a minute --there might be another hole here
good evening all
KEH, thats Terrible.
Hope it has not left permanent, disturbing tendencies with you. Do you still eat duck?
Quoting surfmom:
From your lips to the heavens Ears........ and Orca's talking snow... which do you prefer.... chick in neoprene or chick in bikini

wait a minute --there might be another hole here


This can't be good..... Neoprene... bikini's.. and now Surfmom's not sure where the holes might be....
A neoprene bikini would be OK....
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Evening all,

Surfmom - What kind of chickens do you have?

When I was a youngster we had a pet duck that kept eating the neighbors flowers, so said duck was banished to my grandparent's farm. We were visiting the farm, one Sunday - our usual supper was fried chicken. After eating our fill and expressing our appreciation, we were told we had just eaten QuackQuack


Watch out.. I am pretty sure Surfmom fries the eggs sunny side up.. or was it easy over...
Quoting pottery:
KEH, thats Terrible.
Hope it has not left permanent, disturbing tendencies with you. Do you still eat duck?

Never quite figured out why she did it - suspect she was making some point

Love duck!
y'all are giving me a treasure trove of material here....and I just can't use it...
Alright y'all I am out. Mater needs to eat...and I don't even really want to be around this bikini discussion...Ughh...

Night all and please don't forget that we still need volunteers for the Spring Walk.

Going to watch ChuckTown's take on the potential for snow while Mater eats...
Chickens:
Big Black Mama - Black Australorps (1)
Zena -Rhode Island Red
Snowy -Red Star
Irene
Giget
Quoting presslord:
y'all are giving me a treasure trove of material here....and I just can't use it...


I know what you mean.. it could get bad in a hurry. Had to go and get the extra strong Halo polish.. and I am still worried.
Quoting presslord:
go ahead....keep it up....

...bikini season will soon be upon us....
press if ya really want to scare em my wife just said nuttin but a thong and orca should get the first piture
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
press if ya really want to scare em my wife just said nuttin but a thong and orca should get the first piture



ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Your wife is a very mean person.. she will fit in fine with this bunch
Quoting pottery:
A neoprene bikini would be OK....
hummmm..Think I saw one of those in a Sports Illustrated Calender --Spring
315, Agree. Very Frustrating.
Orc is on thin ice. But then, he is accustomed.........
if the word "bikini" didn't scare everyone....I suspect the word 'thong' did them in....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
press if ya really want to scare em my wife just said nuttin but a thong and orca should get the first piture
Whoooo HOOOO -- this could get HOt, HOT, HOT
Quoting pottery:
315, Agree. Very Frustrating.
Orc is on thin ice. But then, he is accustomed.........


I thought I was flirting with the edge quite nicely :) Just staying on the thick parts... leaving the holes for someone else to fall in :)
back to Blue body parts
We want to see you SPLASH Orca..... you go first LOL
Quoting surfmom:
back to Blue body parts


----SPLASH---
Keeper, your wife is sick, man.
Press in a thong? She needs help..........
Quoting Orcasystems:


Trust me.. the thong did more to it then the cold water ever could.
You won... I'm momentarily speechless
Quoting Orcasystems:


---SPLASH---
It is amazing how you guys have managed to keep "on topic" with this Blog.
"Fire and Ice: Extremes grip North America"
Steelers are in the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!
.......or was that totally obscure ?
i dont even know why she said it
started by asking who press was explain then show her the piture
she said a thong would be a better draw then the bikini and people can donate to put clothes back on him starting with socks first all the way up to shirt and pants
Quoting pottery:
It is amazing how you guys have managed to keep "on topic" with this Blog.
"Fire and Ice: Extremes grip North America"


Yup :)
Always on topic and maintaining my S&I status
Hey Pottery -- we ARE a very extreme bunch
Thats great, Geoff.
What are Steelers ?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i dont even know why she said it
started by asking who press was explain then show her the piture
she said a thong would be a better draw then the bikini and people can donate to put clothes back on him starting with socks first all the way up to shirt and pants


She will fit in well here... good to see there is someone there who can control you :)
Quoting pottery:
Thats great, Goeff.
What are Steelers ?


I don't know.. but apparently they are in a bowl?
Sounds like some kind of drink?
Keeper ...smart wife...Keep-her!

a cruise on the Black Swan would get the TREASURE chest filled
Quoting pottery:
Thats great, Geoff.
What are Steelers ?
They are the football team all Pirates Endorse -STEELERS
Well, I would pay big money, NOT to see Press in a thong.
So its a win-win thing. Threaten them Press.
I just cancelled my subscription.........
Quoting surfmom:
.... yeaa I got one --Big black Mama -- she's got BREASTS
Quoting surfmom:
Keeper ...smart wife...Keep-her!

a cruise on the Black Swan would get the TREASURE chest filled


Hmmmm Big Black Mama - Black Australorps - Black Swan....

Maybe press is not the only one with a fetish??
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't know.. but apparently they are in a bowl?>
Best keep those boys away from Glitter's bowl..... she might loose her sparkle
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i dont even know why she said it
started by asking who press was explain then show her the piture
she said a thong would be a better draw then the bikini and people can donate to put clothes back on him starting with socks first all the way up to shirt and pants

Scary - When you think about it - it sort of makes sense. How much would be raised to put the clothes back on Press, do ya think?

Steelers? Yikes!! - Cotillion will be most displeased
344, thin ice! Thin ice!!
LOLLOLOLOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmmmm Big Black Mama - Black Australorps - Black Swan....

Maybe press is not the only one with a fetish??


heh, heh Orca -- you are too good --- I assure you..... LOL -- I can't believe you strung that together... I can't find a way out LOL...yup I just fell in the hole... and I dug it...ROTFL
Quoting pottery:
344, thin ice! Thin ice!!
LOLLOLOLOL


My defence.. S&I
Quoting surfmom:


heh, heh Orca -- you are too good --- I assure you..... LOL -- I can't believe you strung that together... I can't find a way out LOL...yup I just fell in the hole... and I dug it...ROTFL


Yup... my Halo is still Shiny :)
S&I :)
I am laughing sooooo hard -- teaches me to play with some Canuck -- I'll be laying in wait dear Orca...... remember..... in the dark all cats become leopards
you mean a dented shiny halo
Quoting surfmom:
I am laughing sooooo hard -- teaches me to play with some Canuck -- I'll be laying in wait dear Orca...... remember..... in the dark all cats become leopards


Press, you want to take that one....
I am going to HAVE to assist Surfmom in her Retaliation.
We will have to plan something.........
The guy is Slippery.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you mean a dented shiny halo


Not really dented... but maybe a scratch or two, that can be polished out ;)
Quoting pottery:
I am going to HAVE to assist Surfmom in her Retaliation.
We will have to plan something.........
The guy is Slippery.


Hmmmmm new blood :)
Next thing you know.. press will join
Perhaps fishnets would work.... but then Press would probably try to wear them..... hummm going to have to find just the right bait......
Press will join...
which team ?
Quoting surfmom:
Perhaps fishnets would work.... but then Press would probably try to wear them..... hummm going to have to find just the right bait......


Ohh nice shot :)
Mind you.. it was at press.. that might make him pick a side :)
Yes, the Man from the island of Rum and I will have to make a plan -- I do enjoy the wildness of it all....can't wait till we all have
Spring Fever.................
ESL by LSU Link

MODIS True Color images for 01/16/2009 Link
I think Press's wife and daughter put him out.........
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ohh nice shot :)
Mind you.. it was at press.. that might make him pick a side :)


I have booty --
you just have a halo w/dings and dents
Quoting surfmom:


I have booty --
you just have a halo w/dings and dents


Ohhhhhh my.... the remarks... be good John be good.
Ahhh yes and in a nick of time Patrap appears to get us all back on topic...... sigh of relief -- I was starting to re-visit places of my wild youth
2009 LEGISLATURE
Storm measures high on Texas lawmakers' agenda Link

AUSTIN — After one of the most crippling hurricane seasons for Texas coastal communities, the urgent task confronting state lawmakers is helping thousands of people still recovering from the remnants of Hurricane Ike — and preparing for the next big storm.

Possibilities for new legislation this year include hundreds of millions of dollars for storm-struck communities trying to rebuild, along with new rules that could make the next storm safer, easier and cheaper for residents to weather.

Ike came ashore at Galveston in September as a strong Category 2 storm, causing widespread flooding and wind damage and knocking out power to millions of residents across the region.

“People need to know that the state is taking this disaster and emergency effort seriously,” said state Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston, whose hurricane committee is writing recommendations for fellow lawmakers. “If we do not in a holistic way address emergency and hurricane preparedness issues, the costs and the human tragedies will only increase.”
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ohhhhhh my.... the remarks... be good John be good.
Sweating? or is that just Global Warming making your face red
Quoting surfmom:


I have booty --
you just have a halo w/dings and dents


I don't have a chance of getting press on my side now...
Canadian Beer cannot compete with Surfmom's Booty :)
Oh, Mom!
You are selling ammo to the Enemy.
Quoting pottery:
Oh, Mom!
You are selling ammo to the Enemy.


Yup :)



2009 National Hurricane Conference Link

April 6-April 10 |Austin Convention Center|Austin, TX

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness!
Sorry Orc.
If anyone has to chose between Can. Beer, and Moms Booty, well, youre on your own, buddy. Sorry, .
Okay -- Monday awaits - the bed beckons - You all have a wonderful evening.... can't remember when I have laughed soooo much -- it's so GOOD to Laugh...got this huge smile 'cross my face -- nice way to end the day... you all are GREAT
Quoting pottery:
Sorry Orc.
If anyone has to chose between Can. Beer, and Moms Booty, well, youre on your own, buddy. Sorry, .


heck..I am joining her team :)
Quoting surfmom:
Okay -- Monday awaits - the bed beckons - You all have a wonderful evening.... can't remember when I have laughed soooo much -- it's so GOOD to Laugh...got this huge smile 'cross my face -- nice way to end the day... you all are GREAT


Night Surfmom :)
Pottery understands the value of Pirate Girls!!!! - Halos just don't cut it.

Keep trying Patrap -- they'll get serious soon... once again Good Evening to you All.
Yeah, I'm out too. Its Midnight. I turn into a pumpkin at midnight................

I am out for the night also.. have fun all
Party Like a Rock Star..LOL

01/07/09 GOM SST Color Comp Link


night surf later iam out as well later to all
Could Eric and 09 have a Fujiwara effect on top of Madagascar?
Looks like you have the stage, Pat.

Thanks for the Laffs, you freaks.....







Link


Emergency alert weather radios can be lifesavers when severe weather threatens your area! During an emergency, emergency alert weather radios activate to provide you with immediate information about the life-threatening event.

Weather radios from Oregon Scientific, Midland, First Alert, Reecom and WeatherOne are available in varying price ranges and incorporate features such as sirens, flashing strobe lights, warning messages and alert tones. Weather radios are available in portable or desktop models and many include SAME (Specific Area Message Encoding) technology allowing you to filter our distant warning broadcasts and instead monitor only your local area! Link

What is the special-needs NOAA Weather Radio? Link

The special-needs NOAA Weather Radio was designed to adapt to the needs of the deaf and hard-of-hearing community. The Radio can warn deaf and hard-of-hearing persons of hazardous conditions, giving them around-the-clock, up-to-the-minute weather information. The Radio is a weather alerting system that can be a lifesaver, much as the now commonly-used smoke detector with flashing light, for deaf and hard-of-hearing persons.
All4hurricanes ~ a fujiwara of sorts is forcasted. Eric is suppose to move around to the south pretty quick along the coast, 09S is suppose to move to the north a good bit slower. They've been disrupting each other & are forecasted to move even closer together.
ok - as much as i hate hurricane season, i am actually waiting for it to come back. So tired of global warming although the conversation about fishnets and Press are pretty good...
:)

Love you press.. xxxooo ;)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ERIC (06-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion January 19 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Eric (997 hPa) located at 17.9S 49.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
15 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.3S 48.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
24 HRS: 22.5S 49.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 27.1S 50.8E - 30 knots (Devenant Extratropical)
72 HRS: 33.5S 59.5E - (Extratropical)

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Storm Eric is a very small size. Wind/pressure relationship not respected. Scatterometric data (QUIKSCAT Data at 0322z shows some no contaminated 35 knot winds in the eastern semi-circle) and satellite imagery allows a DT at 2.5+. However convection is warmer since 2030z probably due to the proximity of landmass.

System has maintained its southwestern track and should skirt the eastern Malagasy coast for the next 12 hours. on this track vertical wind shear will be weak but the system should not intensify due to interaction with land.

Winds structure is dissymetric (greater winds extension in the eastern semi-circle).

NWP models are in good agreement and the forecast track is a consensus.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FANELE (07-20082009)
10:00 AM Réunion January 19 2009
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Fanele (995 hPa) located at 21.5S 40.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near-Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.1S 40.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 20.1S 41.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 20.2S 42.8E - 65 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 22.1S 44.9E - DEPRESSION sur terre)

Additional Information
========================
This system is named Fanele by the Malagasy weather service. Fanele is beneath very favorable environmental conditions under the upper level ridge with a good low level inflow equatorward and a strengthening poleward one, relate to the rebuilding high pressure in the southwest. So system is expected to strengthen regularly. However, a dry air intrusion in the 48 hours could limit this intensification. Most of the available NWP models show an eastern turn toward the western coast of Madagascar but they are still some spread in both track and speed. Current forecast is based on a general consensus.

Interested areas along the southwestern coast of Madagascar should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 6.8 has occurred at 02:35 PM EDT on Monday

19 January 2009 near LOYALTY ISLANDS REGION.


THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.


No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.
No one up today... must be the holiday.
ILM is 35 with dense FOG....Forecast to be a nice day .. temps. up to 52!
390. beell
MissNadia,
BTW, lol, the ramp at Amarillo International is still windy and cold! Enjoy your 50F's!
Morning
Now that is a BIG ramp!!!!LOL
Fanele is ramping up here T# 3.1 raw 3.7
Eric's T# 2.5 raw 3. It's struggling being so close to land. It's kissing the coast.
Good Morning,

Will StormJunkie (and Orca) get their wish?
Charleston; Tuesday:
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Much cooler with highs in the lower 40s. Little or no snow accumulation. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

melwerle - How did the regatta/regretta go?