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Hybrid coastal storm pounds Southeast coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on May 08, 2007

A powerful coastal storm centered about 300 miles east of the Georgia coast continues to bring coastal flooding and significant beach erosion from North Carolina to southern Florida. Flood waters driven ashore by winds approaching tropical storm force closed the only road connecting North Carolina's Outer Banks to the mainland on Monday. The water over U.S. 12 just north of Rodanthe cut off a Warner Brothers movie crew filming "Nights in Rodanthe," which stars Richard Gere and Diane Lane. A lifeguard office and garage slid into the ocean at Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and about 100 feet of coastal road were underwater at 1:30 am Tuesday. A coastal flood warning remains in effect for much of the North Carolina coast, where a storm surge of 3-5 feet is expected today. High surf advisories are posted for the entire coast from Maryland to Miami. Winds of minimal tropical storm force (35 knots, or 39 mph) are occurring over a large stretch of ocean surrounding the storm, according to the latest QuikSCAT satellite wind estimates. The South Carolina buoy 41004 had 15 foot seas and sustained winds of 39 mph at 9am EDT this morning.


Figure 1. Model tracks for the Southeast coastal storm, now dubbed "Invest 90L" by NHC.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the May 8, 2007 coastal storm.

The coastal low moved over the core of the Gulf Stream (dark orange colors of Figure 3) last night, the warm waters it encountered helped intensify the storm to a central pressure of 1000 mb--which was not forecasted well by the computer models. The low is now a hybrid between a cold-cored Nor'easter and a warm-cored tropical storm, but does not have the characteristics needed to be called a subtropical storm. A subtropical storm has much heavier rains and more organized thunderstorm activity, which typically form a solid band of rainfall 100 miles or more from the center. Today's storm shows no evidence of bands of precipitation forming; the thunderstorm activity is disorganized. If a major organized band of thunderstorms does develop over the next day or two, the NHC could designate this storm as Subtropical Storm Andrea. I am not expecting that to happen, given the marginal SSTs (24-26 C), and significant amount of dry continental air surrounding the storm.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperatures on May 7, 2007, as measured by the AVHRR satellite. The dark orange colors mark the position of the Gulf Stream current. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins university Applied Physics Laboratory.

Cyclone Phase Space diagrams available at the Florida State University web site maintained by Dr. Bob Hart show that the storm has neither a cold nor a warm core, but is a hybrid. The model forecasts call for the storm to remain in this hybrid state until it makes landfall by Thursday morning, somewhere between the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. The storm should gradually decrease in strength, and winds have already dropped considerably from yesterday. Unfortunately, the storm has not acquired enough tropical moisture to be a big rain maker, and its winds are serving to fan fires in southern Georgia and northern Florida. I expect the storm will bring 1-2 inches of rain to South Carolina on Thursday, and lesser amounts to Georgia and northern Florida.

NHC issued this special advisory this afternoon:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

Severe weather in the Plains finally abates
The severe storm action finally quieted down yesterday in the Midwest, where no tornadoes were reported for the first time since Thursday. The severe weather action should stay at a slow simmer through Thursday over the Plains; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has portions of the region under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. Flooding continues to be a major concern over most of eastern Kansas, plus large portions of Oklahoma, Missouri, and Iowa. Although the heaviest rains are now over, river levels are still expected to rise in many regions through Thursday.

Global tropical cyclone record set
Today marks the 31st straight day without a tropical cyclone anywhere in the world, breaking the record for the longest such streak on record. Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog has more details on this unusual event.

I'll have an update on Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Wildfires in Florida
Wildfires in Florida
As the wildfires approach homes police began evacuating people out of the area
Flooding
Flooding
Water took out a road north of Manhattan

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. MZT
I have to give the NHC credit, that they did run this through the GFDL.

That model is the one they put the most faith in. If it had indicated strengthening, I think you'd be seeing a different sense of alarm in their advisories.
kewl. thank you Bamatracker
Hope this doesnt turn out to be another ALLISON!
All you Houstonians, i know like hearing about Allison. Every time it rains someone goes back to Allison.
I hope the storm is in a good enough shape tomorrow morning for a RECON flight.
Looks like its moving a little North of West So i dont see it with BAMM
went to the beach, and as I was leaving, got a t-storm, enough to wet the grass! A few miles further inland got a good downpour.

Feels weird to have the humid air mixing in with the dry air....

the wave we not big, maybe 4-6ft, but looking out you could see alot of banding.....

I did notice that right at sea level, the winds were extremely light, but you go 10-15ft above sea level, gusts to 20-25mph I would guess.....

If I had to wager, I still am sticking with yesterdays guess of Savannah...... I do not see this storm center coming ashore in florida....

the whole trick as Dr. Masters so astutely pointed out, is how long in the Gulf Stream??

I think the "weakening" that the models see is due to moving westward out of the stream. If this storm gains any northward component of motion, I believe it would have its best chance.


Posted By: Jedkins

"So whereever you heard its subtropical from on TWC, it was one of the lssser meteorologists that messed up with his words and I'm sure has since changed his thoughts since Lyons came out and spoke."

Jed, I am gonna try and give you a break. I really think you should tone down the tude a little. There was a written statement posted by the weather channel.....

check Taz's post at 7:23 PM GMT on May 08, 2007.
guys have you noticed this
Link
Link
508. MZT
To be honest, it's almost as crummy looking as it was last night at this time. Odds are it won't strengthen much more than we saw yesterday, so we'll all be rehashing pretty much the same stuff on the blog tomorrow.

But I would not be surprised if they send the plane in, anyway. The NHC may be interested in gathering recon on a hybrid system. It's close and convenient, and nothing else is going on.
Taz, I am on my way to see Cantore...☺
Iknew global warming was getting bad.. but now even the storms are hybrid???
Wooohooo!!! SJ gets Cantore's autograph for me!!!! Get Abrams too if she is around!!
Cantore is in Charleston? LOL
We still can't get an auto update???
Folly to be exact thel...lol
I told you your lawn would be watered for free..LOL

Clicked Jeds name and looked at his profile, suddenly it all made sence.
I think he gets this site and his Myspace account mixed up. He sure likes pictures of himself. Which makes it more understandable of his actions.
StormJunkie get his phone # Please tell him i said hello
the wife wouldn't like that too much....i better stick to the autograph..but ill get the number for ya jp!!
What? Stephs not down here is she?
SJ did you ever catch him during Ophelia?
521. RL3AO
Posted By: Baybuddy at 8:03 PM CDT on May 08, 2007.
Iknew global warming was getting bad.. but now even the storms are hybrid???


Hybrid storms are fairly normal. Nothing unusual about them.
Nope SC, and not gonna go out there tonight. Would like to go out tomorrow and check the surf though. They have closed the pier.
Cantore is in your town. You are DOOMED! Just kidding. He didn't do to well last year. :)


Hey Junkie...... you gettin any rain down there??
Hey...Can someone tell me when this hybrid thingy is going to quit eroding our beach here in New Smyrna? (Just south of Daytona.) Went down there for a look see today and it's pretty bad...
Part of the Accuweather summit today...

Klotzbach and Bastardi were addressing the Second Annual AccuWeather Hurricane Summit, a gathering of more than 100 weather experts and academics to discuss the coming season with members of the energy industry, whose business can be severely affected by storms.

"We didn't predict very well last year," Klotzbach said, noting that 2006 turned out to be an average year with 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes. None made landfall, he said, the first time since 2001 that has happened.

Klotzbach and his renowned colleague at Colorado State, Professor William Gray, issued their annual predictions April 3, forecasting a "very active" season with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes and five "intense" hurricanes.

Klotzbach said there is a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the United States, with a 49 percent chance it will hit along the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville. Storms reaching Category 3 or greater on the hurricane scale are considered major, with winds up to 130 mph.

Gray and Klotzbach revise their forecast periodically as the nation moves further into the summer hurricane season. The next update is scheduled May 31.

Although Bastardi predicts fewer storms than his counterparts, he agreed 2007 would be more active than usual. Bastardi, who said the nation is in "a very, very volatile" weather period, said he expects 13 or 14 named storms, with the Texas Gulf coast having twice the average likelihood of a storm making landfall and Florida appearing four times as likely.
Not yet thel, I am just about 5 miles from that line.
Wind is really picking up in front of it though.
Chick, this thing is wreaking havoc on the whole cost line from NC south.
storm junkie you board up?!!
hey all still at work here H23 Whats up? Also whats going on with that crazy storm east of J'ville. My eyes been itching all day.
bored or board ?


Wow, ever since I became a member here, I've never seen this blog so busy!
What a way to kick off an EXTRA TROPICAL SEASON.
just want to make sure this beast dont bust any of your windows out!!
lilmax how long have you been around?
Storm Junkies don't get board with storms! LOL

The South Carolina coast is a great place to observe, but not get the "ferocity" as Florida or NC.... and close enough to drive a little ways to get wet! :)
Hey ClearH2OFla!

Looks like our low will slowly weaken during the next day or two and slowly begin to spin down.Overall very smokey out here fires all over the place in florida.Hope you had a great day at work.Dont work to hard.Adrian
Hey chicklit, need someone to lay on the beach with?
You aint seen nuthin yet lilmax
Thanks H23 getting ready to leave shortly, it was so hazey up here in Clearwater today. Smelled like the fire was right here
but not get the "ferocity"

Speak for yourself thel...lol...I sat through some of the worst of the big H.
I just ordered some killer storm shutters, they will be installed next week.
Ok last post for me before i leave. Any Idea on west coast of Florida getting hit this season
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 1:00 AM GMT on May 09, 2007.
guys have you noticed this

TC, I've been watching it for a couple of days. The UL divergence bounces back & forth between +10 & -10. Doesn't seem to be "outflow" All I see is a lot of air going around in a circle. Experts?
all the clouds are at lower levels...the atmosphere around and above this system is stable. Thats why you dont see any "outflow"
About to run out of realestate, andrea will have to wait for a few more weeks hopefully longer.No real deep convection near the center and from the looks of the situation we should see it spin down in the coming hours as it comes ashore.

nnn
"Speak for yourself thel...lol...I sat through some of the worst of the big H."


oh yea..... forgot to throw in that asterisk! LOL Lost all of my childhood photo's, military things I had saved, my stamp collection..... my parents lived in McClellanville, a small shrimping village N of Charleston...... My mother had all that stuff..... :(

can replace alot, but some things are invaluable!
It's holding itself together decently tonight,but if some bursts of convection don't form near the center tonight,you can forget that recon flight.The NHC realizes they'll be flying alot this year,and are likely reluctant to waste money on a flight into a weak storm;where it doesn't really make a difference whether it's named or not.
I say recon is a no go tommorow if the present trend continues.
Yea thel, that was the true bullseye. I was a hair south and inland 20 miles.
Hey kris the Bom update will be out later tonight...You gonna be around?
i agree 23....no need to waste the gas on a round trip for the plane tomorrow....have a good night all. see you in a month or so when the season starts for real!
Why is my screen stretched out ?
I doubt this will be named Andrea unless 2 outta 3 things change. It needs to get an upper level high instead of the low it has now, it needs to fully decouple from the front, and it needs heavier convection. Without 2 of those it wont get named, and it still probably wont get named unless all 3 happen.
There was no beach to lie on today as the waves were pounding the seawall at around high tide and for an hour or more afterward. Then I rode my bicycle into the northwind to get home and what a drag!!! It must have been blowing about 30-40 miles an hour down here today! I cannot imagine then how bad it is closer to the storm...must be terrible erosion further north, especially in Georgia & the Carolinas.
SSTs in the Gulf are comparable to temperatures recorded late last June......
Hey ClearH2Ofla. I live in clw also. Don't know if this is the year but I do know is that our time is coming. This year, next year who knows? Many of the experts predict an active year and the FL and the Gulf are the targets again this year. We have dogged too many bullits for too long here in the Bay Area.
Chicklit - If the swirl messes up the beach weekend, I say we name it any way. I will have a couple of choice suggestions. We can name it if we want to. Isn't it "Weather Underground", not "Weather Mainstream"?
How about "Whether or Not?"
(It's still a damned storm.)
Here's some storm reports out of Charleston. 2' beach erosion, Tides 2'+ their expected forecasted high. Limbs & a few trees down.
Good night all. Does the blob to the East of The Blob get sucked in to it, and become a more powerful system ??
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:43 AM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Hey kris the Bom update will be out later tonight...You gonna be around?



Yep,probably.
what is Bom update?
We just replenished Folly Beach last year Skye...Arghh Watch the tax dollars erode away.
Checkin damage out the JAX office~
FLAGLER BEACH PIER HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH SURF. WATER IS CLOSE TO REACHING A1A BETWEEN 10TH AND 20TH ST. SOUTH.

I never realized we could fire update stuff there as well.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
457 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 AM WILDFIRE 2 ESE HAMPTON 29.85N 82.11W
05/08/2007 BRADFORD FL BROADCAST MEDIA

AT LEAST 700 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN EVACUATED DUE TO TWO
BRUSHFIRES WHICH ARE MERGING TOGETHER AS ONE. ONE HOME
HAS BEEN DESTROYED IN THE FIRES.

I don't think this will be tropical, yall can read more on my first update of the season here:

Hurricane Warning
Good stuff pat!
I hear ya SJ. The whole replenishment thing around here is a mess. Esp since so much is caused by the port & Jetty.
What is that image showing, Pat ?
If this system doesnt move somewhere pretty soon looks like SE Texas is going to get Rain Rain and more Rain
Welcome back turtle ☺

I think you may be right there. Looks like it is going to run out of warm water and then ocean all together. Still a neat little system though.
Evening pottery.

For one it is showing a lot of dry air over the NE Gulf.
Turtle, good to see ya friend! :)
578. MZT
Around this time of the evening, tends to be where small storms look their worst. It seems a little better than yesterday... But is definately running out of time, and room. Heres the comparison between last night and now:


Yesterday night 9:35Tonight 10:08 pm
Hi SJ. I was hoping that was not what it was showing. I assume that patch of dark blue East of Trinidad is not rain then. Hope springs eternal.............
Alright thel, looks like everyone was a step ahead of me and you. I am out. Got to get up early!

See y'all later

SJ
582. RL3AO
This thing wont be named. Hopefully it gives the Florida and Georgia people some rain.
Nice to see ya Thelmores and SJ :)

The seasons almost here, although tracking 90L makes it feel like the season is here!
Wierd thing is ... we have a circulation without much convection and, about 7 degrees east of it a big convection without circulation. That one somehow seems to be connected to the circulation.


Looks like we may get clipped by our first outer band.... Rain very much appreciated!

On the map I am about half way between Conway and Myrtle beach, 8 miles from the ocean.
Docben, I asked earlier if the two would meet. Your veiws ?
Am I reading this right? 18z GFDL has it at 70 knots on the 3rd slide. That would range from 50 to 60 knots at the surface. That seems pretty fierce!

Link
589. MZT
The GFDL often shows a few spots of high wind. I remember it forecasting Alberto to have some category 3 areas.

First time blogger, long time lurker, but have always appreciated the information and the varied points of view. Thank you.

Even if we don't get a named storm, the warm ups have started, and we all need to exercise before the big game approaches. Thanks again. I'll continue to lurk and learn.
pottery - don't see any wat they could. Seems the circulation is moving west and the hot spot east.
Posted By: tornadofan at 2:32 AM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Am I reading this right? 18z GFDL has it at 70 knots on the 3rd slide. That would range from 50 to 60 knots at the surface. That seems pretty fierce!



They just woke the model up from winter's nap.It's still drowsy and needs some coffee.What's worse,it wakes up to hear some crap about a replacement waiting in the wings.LOL
Thanks, Doc.
Note the area of convection coming off Africa, and the ITCZ from there to the Pacific. Its warming up down South too...........
But we have not had any rain here for too long and its dry.
I think by Thursday rain will soak West central Florida and North..... we shall see :)
Between GA/FL border & center, in that band of rain.
596. MZT
I think I'm willing to change my mind about it reaching South Carolina. The WNW motion doesn't seem as pronounced as earlier.

Who knows, maybe it'll get an extra day over water if it goes due west towards Georgia.
pottery - if you are in that GA-FL area I think you might have to get used to being dry. The migration of climate belts to higher latitude is systemic. Australia, the Sahel, Mediterrenean area, and others are getting much dryer. One of the bad effects of climate change.
Nice graph Skye.
DocBen. I'm in Trinidad. We are in the dryest Nov.- to -date dryseason on record. Temps have been going up fast too. Regular 90's these days. Not at all Tropical Island climate. 15 yrs. ago it was always 83 - 85 F. Today was 91 !
90L has a day left. So... it seems to have run out of time to be named. Stil, the affects for anywhere between Northern Florida and Southern South Carolina will be the same.

If can, please check out my first blog called Voting/Poll game. It is a fun contest that you guys can enter. Here's a link:
Trinidad is at 11 n 61 w
602. MZT
If I had to call it ... I'd say that based on the 02:45UTC image, there is a increase in convection taking place over a few hours ago.

Guess I'll check up on it in the morning, though. This storm isn't worth blogging into the wee hours.
315am UTC

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST
OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH. THE LOW IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COASTS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS EVENING...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.
It's great that a Recon flight was scheduled. I'm sure we will be able to learn more about hybrids.
605. MZT
Final comment: Yeah we'll hear people say it's a waste of money to send a plane there, but I think it's the right choice. It will give the NHC some political cover, if the recon data says it's not tropical. It's basically a warm-up flight for the real season anyway.

On the whole I think the NHC has hit the ball down the middle with this. I can't disagree with their assessments.
The surge has hit 2.7 feet this evening--I'm going to regret this tomorrow, but I am going to the beach to check out what the high tide and surf is up to. The wind veered for a while to the NNE this evening, but is now back to the north. This may keep the surge from rising further. The center on satellite seems to be moving a bit faster after almost stalling earlier today (at least to my eyes) Since the wind is backing, I am thinking the center will pass to the north of me.
90L: 45kts, 1000mb
Guys, it's the diurnal minimum. It'll start strengthening again rapidly overnight, I think. Remember Epsilon?
RIP griffiths observatory. Record heat + wind + DRYEST SEASON TO DATE...
Convection is quite close to the center, I expect a STS tomorrow morning. Loggin off the blog till then, good night all.
lightning10...are you saying the observatory is going to burn from the fire?
I am saying the fire is mighty close. Combined with a 10-15 MPH winds and again I cant stress this enough the dryest winter on record its not looking good. I can see the smoke from a good 40 miles away. Not only this but its 9:30 PM and its still 76 degrees 100 today and the heat wave is know going to last another 1-2 more days. Was expected to end tomorrow.
nothing really to report from the beach. The tide was up from what it should have been, but it is neap tide and the astronomical tides are lower than normal. Breezy, but no really strong winds. Surf was about 4-5 feet, nothing exceptional.
I would love for that thing to follow the GFDL and hit SE GA. Would help that area GREATLY.
Looks like the HYPE-O-METER at accuweather.com is cranking up.

"For energy markets, it's a bullish forecast," said AccuWeather forecaster Joe Bastardi. "The highest area of risk has swung southwest from the Atlantic to Florida and the eastern and central Gulf Coast regions," he said.

U.S. oil prices rose 83 cents Tuesday to $62.30 per barrel, pulling up from its lowest level since March 22 that was hit on Monday.

Bastardi said that chances a storm would cross over oil-producing parts of the Gulf of Mexico, home to a quarter of U.S. oil production, were two-and-a-half to three times higher than normal this year.

Overall, the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will bring 13 to 14 named storms, of which six or seven could strike the United States, AccuWeather said.

I just checked the satellite, and it appears that the thunderstorm activity has become more consolidated around the center. I don't think it would be out of the question to have at least a subtropical or tropical depression soon (morning, maybe) before landfall.
PEACE ON EARTH
well - looking at the water vapor I think its converting - It seems to be losing that upper level low pressure spin(?). (Note the diminishing dry air swirl). Tropical systems have high pressure aloft.
is this system moving at all or did it stall ?
Yes, I see the outflow bands developing, and convection forming and consolidating around the center, as well as the shrinking field of winds, which indicates transition to a tropical system. We'll see what the NHC says about it...
stormybil - The storm is contracting, which may make it appear like it's stalling or backing up, but it definitely indicates a transition to a warm-core, tropical nature, in which the wind fields are smaller and around the center, while an extratropical or subtropical storm has a larger windfield with less consolidated convection.

It appears 90L is taking advantage of Diurnal max coming up here soon (before sunrise), and is developing quite quickly over the wam Gulf Stream waters.
thanks kyle do you see anything around the system that might make it go further south . than expected .
Not really anything to push it. It appears to be moving west-northwest now, as a matter of fact, and looks like it could make landfall on the Georga/South Carolina border, or maybe just a little south of that.

But this would be a benefit, as there is a defecit there, and the wildfires might die down with the rainfall.
just thought it might get to souteast fla we need rain badly and the smoke is all over here .
Ya, I could imagine. There's a distinctive eye like feature showing up...can you see it?

stormybil - I may be wrong. I just updated the satellite loop and saw the center wobble to the south. It looks like it may be on a track closer to the Georgia/Florida border, to be honest. We'll have to see what happens in the morning, because I'm heading off to bed now. Have a great night!
thanks again kyle have a good night hope it does go south alittle more see ya latter
In the last hour it seems to have had a surge in convection - also there is that activity in the center you see as a tropical depression forms up. It will be interesting to see what the aircraft finds tomorrow.

If it is converting we should see strong convection near the center on IR soon.
Its kinda messy on IR but on the water vapor its much better organized I think. The pressure at the Buoy just SE of Jax has really dropped too. The winds are about the same or a little higher - its smaller.
I just hope it brings RAIN.

Does anyone happen to know where the fires are actually burning here in Florida? It really smells like smoke out there this morning. I'm in Dade county.
I just hope it brings RAIN.

Does anyone happen to know where the fires are actually burning here in Florida? It really smells like smoke out there this morning. I'm in Dade county.
Looks subtropical all of a sudden. If it stalled for a few more hours, it might get a name.
The big ones are up in north central and Georgia. With smaller ones all over the place -- and now in the everglades I hear also:

There are 14 active brush fires in Lee, Collier and Hendry counties this morning, according to the state division of forestry.

There is probably some smaller ones close to you. All over Florida.
Perry, Fl is reporting 59 degrees
Jacksonville, Fl is reporting 66 degrees

7 degree difference across the state that shows that the storm is warm core
well - gotta say - this storm is/was totally unimpressive. No rain, wind is a light breeze. Hmmmmm
CDO IS FORMING CONVECTION HAS CROSSED THE CENTER!!!
Thanks, JFLORIDA.

The whole place smells like woodsmoke.
A LARGE 1000 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR
31N79W...OR ABOUT 125 NM EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KT
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THESE WINDS ARE
PRODUCING HIGH SEAS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND THE BAHAMAS...BUT OVERALL WAVE ACTION HAS SUBSIDED
QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE NW SWELL IS ALSO
PROPAGATING WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM...WITH THE NEW 41043 BUOY
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO REGISTERING 5-6 FT LONGER PERIOD SWELL OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.
Recon in 90L, looks really good on satellite.
does anyone know where to find live recon data
Good morning everyone. I am here in Jacksonville, Florida...
644. MahFL
Recon Data is available on the NHC website. On the Visible it sure does look like its trying to close the circle on the western side to form a tropical like center.
Vis sat


NHC/TPC Aircraft Reconnaissance

Also its smokey in Orange Park from the Baker county fires.
Today, the storm is supposed to shift winds and make the smoke come into jacksonville
646. MZT
Interesting, Interesting.... Is this "The Little Doughnut that Could?" :-)
Look Off the tail due east , whats that dropping south?

Link
648. MahFL
Its looks like duck...and swims like a duck...its a Tropical Depression IMHO.
649. MZT
It looks better this morning than yesterday morning. If it stalls and spends one more day out there, I think the transition to tropical will be not just probable, but likely.
An old front is what you see
I think it looks better too cant wait to see what recon says.
when is recon supposed to be on station??

it is somewhat ragged, but looks sub-tropical to me! ;)
SSD says the T# is up to 3.0

Link
654. MahFL
Recon should be there now, time on station is 7 am EDT to 2 pm EDT today the 9th.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 09/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 09/0930Z
D. 31.8N 79.4W
E. 09/1100Z-09/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
JAX radar now images the circulation center--sort of. I think only the highest tops show at that distance. But there is at least spotty precip all around the center now.
Looks mighty good on WV...

WV
Sittin here in Savannah - darker skies, windy but zero rain so far (I think i slept through light showers yesterday). Oh well. Any news on whether this thing has gotten a bit more power to it or is it going to fizzle?
Morning all ☺

Good to see you mel and thel.

Looks like it is having a hard time completing that circle of convection. It does look much better then yesterday, but it looks like it will run out of water before it can gain any strength. I think the wind field is contracting as it tries to complete the transistion to warm core. Just not sure it is going to have time. It would have to stall because it is going to exit the Gulf Stream soon if it continues west. Looks like the models are in fair agreement on somewhere between Jacksonville and Savannah.
I am here in Jacksonville...
recon reports are coming in, 37 knots highest so far: Link
The weather folks here are just telling us it is going to just kind of linger around and do nothing but make some wind and a few showers here and there. BORING.
oh - how RUDE. MORNING SJ! Good to see you this morning!
lol mel, it is all good.

Morning C2 and hg.

Well, about time for me to get back to work. See y'all in a little while.

Quick Links - Easily find the best model, imagery, marine data pages on the web.
For a low that was not going to amount to much it looks damn good this morning :)
Its looking more interesting this morning, although the storm is still relatively disorganized. I've updated on

Hurricane Warning

Its a waiting game now...
This morning's satellite imagery suggests that a warm-core, tropical system transformation is almost complete, mainly due to how the storm contracted, developed more thunderstorm activity, and consolidated it near the center.
A very interesting start to the season if the transition happens; this was the last place I expected a storm to develop at this time of the year (as opposed to the traditional areas in the Southern Gulf)
I know what you mean weatherman - I think this is somewhat of a (bad) indication of what the season to come may be.

Hurricane hunters are currently in the storm, so we'll have to see what they find.
670. IKE
I agree..system looks better this morning. It's still about 150 miles from the coast. I didn't think it would get classified. Now I think it will.
What time will the hurricane hunters have results?
a tropical storm does not need a closed off center...only warm core and winds above 39mph, correct? thanks
Posted By: homegirl

recon reports are coming in, 37 knots highest so far:


Thats 37kts @ 18k feet

Im sure it will be higher once they hit 10k and below

*Well I read that wrong they went in @ 18.9k and out @ 30.9k
We will have to wait on the rest of the tropics for several weeks as nothing has developed down there worth watching and there is some shear in the Caribbean basin; I'm still hoping that it will make the transition and dump some rain into Florida and Georgia...
Making a run for sure! Qickscatt! Highest winds are around the center now!!
c2 - There's a weather site where you can view live details of the plane's data, as well as its location as it flies to, within, and out of the storm, but I can't remember what. Hopefully somebody knows the link to that so that you (and I) can have a look.

And IKE, it does appear more likely that at least tropical storm force will be reached (I'm not sure that this is subtropical anymore, based on satellite images).
Am trying to get the Hurricane Guidance text from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR, but all I get is:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 272054
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICNE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FEB 27 2007

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

...TEST...TEST...TEST...

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....


Is there anywhere that I can find the regular BAM/LBAR/SHIPS text guidance.
678. IKE
On that quikscat...looks like the center is near 30.3N, 78.3W.
yep ike...it seems to have slowed way down, also
Crown...Link
thanks wg
Some observations from Tybee Island, GA this morning. Conditions are very different from yesterday and the day before. Winds have increased and are less gusty, more sustained now. Squally showers periodically push through, and we have a very fast moving, very low cloud ceiling. Humidity has also been on the rise as well. I think we may have a new creature on our hands today.
I would say that it is 100% tropical now (lower and upper levels are both warm-core); this is a high-resolution model specifically designed for storms like this, not a low-resolution global model (maximum intensity is also forecast to occur at 00z tomorrow, or 7:00 pm tonight):




The chances of it getting a name are now near zero though since it still hasn't been named yet. The chances of a post-season storm (yet again) are probably near 100% though.
Visit My Blog to see the damage in Jupiter Beach Park! Notice the lifeguard station in the parking lot!
685. IKE
The chances of it getting a name are now near zero though since it still hasn't been named yet.

Recon just flew in this morning. If it is a storm, it is one. I don't think they were going to name it before flying in...maybe I'm wrong though.
Yeah there up:)

Wed May 09 2007
1142 GMT
Latitude 30.5 N
Longitude 77.1 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in clouds
Flight altitude 30972 feet (9440 meters)
Flight level winds 220 degrees at 19 knots (21 mph)
Temperature -43 C Dewpoint -99 C
Remarks: AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 07 CCA

If they name it now, many people are going to be really PO'ed at the NHC; I mean, it has been there for days and has caused damage already.
Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
17:02:30 29.61 -89.68 23610 224 55 55 -1 -42

Wait that can't be right.. the time... need more coffee.
morally and legally they have to name it if it fits their criteria.......
Ya it is quite small, definately looks well organized this morning with pretty good convection wrapping around a clear center unlike yesterday, it doesn't look spotty anymnore since last night, I think it has transitioned at this point and it should be upgraded to at least a TD or sub.-TD, possibly a tropical storm, at very least subtropical storm if it still has winds out there at tropical storm force.
They didn't name that storm before Beryl last year, or the subtropical storm in 2005 that hit the Azores.
morally & legally?..LOL..Its a lil wind and rain folks. Not a Killer Storm.Get a grip...LOL
Its clearly at least sub - tropical by looking at this morning, if not fully tropical, it couldn't get much less un - extra tropical looking for a weak small system.


Yesterday, it really wasn't quie there, but overnight its proven it has transitioned over, it should be named, but whatever.

If this is a threat..Im a midwife.,,


7
695. IKE
If they name it now, many people are going to be really PO'ed at the NHC; I mean, it has been there for days and has caused damage already.

PO'ed about what? It wasn't tropical then...it may be now. It's not a major storm...a rainmaker at most, probably.

It is what it is.
Hmmm my thought is the NHC dis discuss that they are going to be more carefull to name systems like this as tropical and slower to upgrade systems (like from cat 1 to 2 and so on....), but maybe thats just a rumor, not sure on that.
Michael, damage?? Come here and see me..LOL Its beach erosion. We get it all the time here along the Florida coast. This isnt nothing.
NO organized bands,,no core..no cdo,Its less orgnized this am than last.Period.
Hope FEMA can deal with that Lifeguard station..LOL
700. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 7:48 AM CDT on May 09, 2007.
If this is a threat..Im a midwife.,,


It's a blessing if it heads west.

Was at the beach last night. It was beautiful, yeah the waves were up, but thats about it. I have been through worse Noreasters here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Pretty impressive for what it is in the last few frames. Compact and filling in nicely. Hopefully there's a lot of moisture in there. My fence isn't even wet here, what are the chances of the system stalling and strengthening off of Jax and just pumping rain in? Seems to have stalled, no?

And good morning, all.

B
Posted By: Jedkins at 4:57 PM GMT on May 08, 2007.

hah, Jeff Masters has backed up my words lololol gotta love it.


I told ya folks, I am optimistic though on this, I still think it has a chance to become subtropical.



By the way, effects from a non tropical system on one of the subtropical or tropical alot different not the same.

As Jeff Masters said, subtropcal systems have ALOT more moisture and much deeper convection.

PWATS withing systems containing tropical characterists are often have at least 3 times as much availble moisture as los of the non tropical type.


So there would clearly be a difference, convection would be deeper, and tropical systems are far wetter than any non tropical ones are.


What happened to following the Expert herd of sheep?
I disagree witn that:

09/0545 UTC 30.9N 78.8W ST3.0/3.0 90L
08/2345 UTC 30.6N 78.3W ST2.5/2.5 90L
08/1745 UTC 30.1N 77.9W ST2.5/2.5 90L
08/1145 UTC 30.3N 77.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L
08/0545 UTC 30.9N 75.7W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/2345 UTC 30.9N 74.7W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/1745 UTC 31.6N 73.9W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/1145 UTC 32.0N 73.1W ST2.5/2.5 90L
07/0545 UTC 33.3N 72.5W ST2.5/2.5 90L

It has been at least subtropical since late on the 6th (7th in UTC). The next reading should be in soon; I don't remember the last time we had system with this many readings at TS intensity without having the NHC declare it as a depression at the least.
The main problem with this storm (Or whatever you call it) is that it is fanning the fires.The Georgia fires are now in Florida because of this.It never had much rain but it is circulating and it is windy.The longer it stays the harder it will be to put out the fires.There are over 200 fires in Fl. now.
eh I wouldn't say less organized, it has gotten better organized, but all we should be doing is getting happier, the more tropical this thing gets, they more moisture and depper its convection will be, which by the way its has pretty impressive banding strcture on its east side.

But this not a damaging system, thunderstorm that form on the Florida seabreeze EVERY DAY in the wet season are capable of more destruction then this thing LOL.


So the only thing coming out of this, is needed, rain, although it has shrunk in size alot, so areas to get it remain limited, but I expect expansion as it collapses.
Wow~! Definately looking a but more tropical the yesterday. Still, if they name it or not the affects will be the same.

People think about this; it's only May and were consitrating on our first storm. Who knows what this season will bring. I'm hoping people are preparing for the 2007 hurricane season.


Also, guys, check out my Poll/Voting Game; it's my first blog on my page. It is really fun and is worth entering. Thanks.

-Justin~
were is the link for the "raw" recon data??

had it bookmarked last year, but i have a different hard drive! DOH!

There was even one site that had recon data plotted on google earth.

gotta find this stuff! LOL
Morning guys...

Recon is up and now we'll what and see what they find.Right now i still dont see any real deep convection around the center so i think its a possiblity the NHC will name this sun-tropical andrea in a few hours.

Here's a close-up visible image.

g
STL~ I wish I remember where I put the bookmark for the site but that ST3.0 is like a threashold for naming..
Michael, your numbers wont get ya anywhere. We will wait for the NHC:) Da plane will tell us.
Posted By: SCwxwatch at 12:51 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Posted By: Jedkins at 4:57 PM GMT on May 08, 2007.

hah, Jeff Masters has backed up my words lololol gotta love it.


I told ya folks, I am optimistic though on this, I still think it has a chance to become subtropical.



By the way, effects from a non tropical system on one of the subtropical or tropical alot different not the same.

As Jeff Masters said, subtropcal systems have ALOT more moisture and much deeper convection.

PWATS withing systems containing tropical characterists are often have at least 3 times as much availble moisture as los of the non tropical type.


So there would clearly be a difference, convection would be deeper, and tropical systems are far wetter than any non tropical ones are.

What happened to following the Expert herd of sheep?



Theres only one big issue, where did I say it WON'T have any chance of changing over? Thats right, that would be no fella, I said its almost there and it has a chance, it just isn't there yet.

Well today it is, and if the NHC doesn't name it, they've just gotten much pickyer on how they name storms that have converted from extratropical to sub-tropical or tropical.
715. IKE
I'm hoping people are preparing for the 2007 hurricane season.

I'm preparing for $5 a gallon gas as soon as a hurricane gets in the gulf...which seems almost likely from everything I've read.
000
SXXX50 KNHC 091233
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 20 KNHC
1224 3120N 07629W 01686 0042 163 034 108 068 035 01762 0000000000
1224. 3121N 07631W 01678 0041 163 034 106 070 034 01753 0000000000
1225 3122N 07632W 01676 0040 165 034 106 072 035 01750 0000000000
1225. 3123N 07634W 01677 0040 166 033 106 072 034 01751 0000000000
1226 3123N 07636W 01677 0040 166 034 106 076 034 01752 0000000000
1226. 3124N 07638W 01676 0040 163 034 106 082 034 01750 0000000000
1227 3125N 07640W 01678 0040 163 035 100 090 036 01752 0000000000
1227. 3126N 07642W 01676 0039 164 035 098 096 035 01749 0000000000
1228 3127N 07643W 01677 0038 165 035 100 096 036 01749 0000000000
1228. 3128N 07645W 01677 0038 164 038 098 098 038 01749 0000000000
1229 3129N 07647W 01676 0037 163 038 102 096 039 01747 0000000000
1229. 3130N 07649W 01676 0037 159 037 102 102 037 01747 0000000000
1230 3131N 07651W 01677 0037 159 037 102 090 037 01748 0000000000
1230. 3132N 07653W 01676 0036 159 038 104 084 038 01746 0000000000
1231 3133N 07655W 01677 0036 162 039 108 072 039 01748 0000000000
1231. 3135N 07656W 01677 0034 165 041 110 072 042 01746 0000000000
1232 3137N 07657W 01676 0033 163 042 110 066 042 01744 0000000000
1232. 3139N 07658W 01676 0034 159 042 110 066 042 01744 0000000000
1233 3140N 07659W 01676 0035 158 039 108 074 041 01745 0000000000
1233. 3142N 07700W 01676 0034 159 038 104 088 039 01745 0000000000
The only chance this system would have to become truly tropical..would be to transit N . Fla..and enter the GOM. The percentage of that happening..is 8%.
The overall point is whether the NHC names it or not, its weak, and it doesn't matter that much.

My personal thought is the NHC is going to be more carefull to name weak storms that aren't capable of much.
23 it has a eye it all most look like hurricane andrea
Oil isnt the problem in America folks. Its refining capacity. Lotsa refineries do Catcracker maintenence in the Spring. Those units produce the gasoline . We havent built a new refinery in 32 years in America. One could have a Billion bbls..but still only a certain capability to refine it. Thanks to Fed regulations and EPA guidelines. No one can build a new refinery. Its cost prohibitive.
You Crack me up Jed!!

Wishy washy comes to mind.
Posted By: Patrap at 8:49 AM EDT on May 09, 2007.

Hope FEMA can deal with that Lifeguard station..LOL


lol, I think so! The protecting dunes are all but gone in that area! Not good approching the season.
2:05am EST..THE SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS EVENING...AND NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.
Well as long as Fla stays put ..we have at Least one BArrier Island for protection here in SE Louisiana.
Pat, why the 7hr old forecast? LOL
Patrap
We'll do our best 4 ya!
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB
nhc SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


jo
LOL please look before you post...

There you have it i suspect advisories to begin at 11am if the trend continues as specified by the NHC.
730. IKE
There it is....it's on it's way...

No one will panic over a minimal TS. If they do, how do they handle a hurricane?
yeah you trumped me posting, but note the time, we hit together! jo ^_^
Ooooohhhhhhhhhhhh!..lets get ready for the storm..
Wed May 09 2007
1247 GMT
Latitude 31.9 N
Longitude 77.7 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1148 feet (350 meters)
Flight level winds 150 degrees at 31 knots (35 mph)
Temperature 18 C Dewpoint -99 C
Surface Pressure 1010 millibars
Surface winds 140 at 30 knots (34 mph)
Remarks: AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 12
CAuse Im not wrapped up in a Lil ol Thinga mabob. I save my brain and post powa for the real threats..
735. IKE
I'd love to have that system over the parched panhandle of Florida...head west Andrea! Please...my yard is pitiful looking.
736. IKE
Thanks for the information.
"this was the last place I expected a storm to develop at this time of the year (as opposed to the traditional areas in the Southern Gulf)"

...actually, this is a pretty typical region for pre-season development. Since 1900 there have been 17 storms to develop in April or May. Only two have been in the Gulf (and NOT in the southern Gulf). Six have been off the U.S. East Coast (a few very similar to this one, a few a little further offshore). So, this is a pretty classic pre-season type of development. And, incidentally, in those 16 seasons (one season had two pre-season storms), the mean activity was normal. So, a pre-season storm is a harbinger of nothing. Some of the seasons were very active (1933), some were pretty quiet (1972).
Nature sometimes give us a break. Fla needs the rain..The Fire areas in GA may get some good relief from er..Andrea?..
This system has no real deep convection around its center so in reality its still cold-core but its transition to sub-tropical storm has been under going and from the looks as i stated the NHC will probably go ahead and start anvisories on this system at 11am this morning.
Any bets on where it hits?
Plus Im 9 days from winning weatherguy03 storm pool..
well.its about 6yards from the coast. Id say Ga..LOL
oh pat, i sure hope so, i am off to work, then to the front to do a rain dance, here's what I want, dear thing-a-ma-bob, please sit & spin -grow bigger with non-bands of rain and THEN head west slowly!! that will probably be the only time you hear ME west-casting this year! jo
The system has dragged downed that front and the weather here is Perfect..
Nothing ever hits here - I say it goes to SC...everything goes there. (I'll take my crow MR)
In that Loop it does look as if its taking a more Nw jog.
Yes NW definatly and gaining a more solid eye wall if you ask me (for a very wide eye)
749. IKE
Lowest pressures are at the buoys off the extreme NE coast of Fl. and east of SE GA.
I received this advisory this morning.

ALACHUA COUNTY ISSUES HEALTH ADVISORY FOR SMOKE

Due to the fires both in the county and in Georgia, we are
experiencing significant smoke and particulate matter in the
area. The Health Department, in concert with the Department
of Emergency Management, have issued a health advisory until
conditions improve.

The effects of smoke run from irritation of the eyes and
respiratory tract to more serious disorders, including asthma,
bronchitis, reduced lung function, and possibly death. Studies
have shown that the fine particulate matter contained in smoke
is linked with aggravation of existing respiratory and
cardiovascular problems. The extent of the health problems are
linked to the level of exposure, age, individual susceptibility,
and other potentially associated factors.

Individuals with asthma, cardiovascular disease, the elderly,
and children, should restrict their outdoor activities at
this time. Children, even those without preexisting conditions,
are considered a sensitive population because their lungs are
still developing. Of course, those individuals that smoke are
susceptible due to decreased lung function.

Citizens are asked to evaluate their health conditions and
limit their outside activities until conditions improve.
One could have a Billion bbls..but still only a certain capability to refine it.

Very true. Saudia Arabia may have alot of oil to export, but they must IMPORT refined gasoline since they do not refine any. So having an oil well spouting oil will only grease your hair if you can't do anything with it.
Wind is picking up a bit here near Gainesville FL. In addition to all the smelly smoke we've been suffering the last week or so now ash from all the fires is being picked up and is coming down like snow. Feels like the last days of Pompei... At least I'm getting a nice application of potash on the gardens. Hope 90L brings some rain to wash that potash in!
repost...nevermind
In SE north carolina we have less than 3 tenths in 3 days of 20 mph weather. The wind is more calm today. Let it rotate back if thunderstorms are building.In case the Indians are reading, Richard Gere is stranded on the Outer Banks by overwash and cutting of the road. Maybe they will extridite.
I heard one report on the local news that, refineries had an unusually high amount of accidents and malfunctions this spring. I also heard they refine large quantities in cycles. I think they step up production in the spring and fall.
My dad is an engineer at a chemical plant in Lake Charles, La. Its not a refinery, but he has been there for 30yrs and know many of the people that work at refineries. He said the EPA has handicapped the system and pushed the cost of production up at least 30%. He said many of the regulations are redundant and don't make much sense.
Link
might take a while to load on dial-up
Larger Refineries taking chances and ignoring safety rules. Then all receive additional restrictions, which sometimes causes lower production.
Navy has is as 01L ANDREA!!!
Recon vortex message show no thermal gradient into the center. Not warm core. But not cold core anymore either.
00
URNT12 KNHC 091356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/13:26:40Z
B. 31 deg 02 min N
079 deg 23 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 64 deg 063 nm
F. 136 deg 050 kt
G. 062 deg 051 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C/ 304 m
J. 20 C/ 305 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF303 01AAA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 50 KT NE QUAD 13:04:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Storm INVEST: Observed by AF #303
Storm # In Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #: AF303
Date/Time of Recon Report: May 09, 2007 13:26:40 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 31 02 ' N 079 23 ' W (31.03 N 79.38 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 50 Knots (57.5 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 063 Nautical Miles (72.45 miles) From Center At Bearing 64
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 050 Knots (57.5 MPH) From 136
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 051 Nautical Miles (58.65 Miles) From Center At Bearing 062
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1003 Millibars (29.617 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 20C (68F) / 304 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 20C (68F) / 305 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 18C (64.4F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 6 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 50 KT NE Quadrant at 13:04:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.


not sure if it's totally accurate, last season since I even tried! LOL
Ohh Nm you made that image didnt you?