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Hurricanes on other planets?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on November 13, 2006

Saturn has joined Earth as the second planet known to harbor hurricane-like storms in its atmosphere. A huge, clockwise-rotating hurricane-like cyclone with a deep "eye" surrounded by towering "eyewall" clouds was discovered swirling directly over Saturn's south pole by the Cassini spacecraft, NASA announced Thursday. This "Saturnicane" is huge--about 2/3 the diameter of the Earth--and is composed of clouds of liquid ammonia. The 5000-mile diameter storm has an "eyewall" about 185 miles (300 km) across, which surrounds a 930 mile (1500 km) wide "eye". The "eyewall" clouds soar 20-45 miles above the "eye"--about 2-5 times higher than the eyewall clouds of Earthly hurricanes. Winds blow at 350 mph around the storm. I hope we never see a whopper of a storm like that on Earth!


Figure 1. October 11, 2006 "Saturnicane" observed by the Cassini spacecraft over the south pole of Saturn.

The Saturnicane's "eyewall" clouds appear to be formed by convection--the same process that helps form hurricane eyewall clouds on Earth. Heat from below warms the air, generating rising air currents. As this air rises, it expands and cools, condensing the gaseous ammonia into liquid ammonia clouds. NASA scientists speculate that the phenomena only occurs in summer, which is in full swing over Saturn's southern hemisphere at present. It is unclear whether the storm's "eye" and "eyewall" behave in a similar fashion to those features in Earthly hurricanes. The fact that the storm is anchored directly over the south pole and is not composed of water clouds must mean that there are significant differences from the hurricanes we are familiar with. In an interview with Yahoo, astrophysicist Michael Flasar said, "I'm hoping that as we puzzle over it, it will become even more exciting as we start to connect the dots in our brains. But right now, the wheels are a little creaky," Flasar said. "We're all arguing with each other about what it might or might not be."


Figure 1. The relative sizes of Earth (8000 miles in diameter), the October 11, 2006 "Saturnicane" (5000 miles in diameter), and Super Typhoon Tip of 1979 (1400 miles in diameter), the largest tropical cyclone ever observed on Earth.

What about other planets?
Mars also plays host to huge cyclones. These extratropical cyclones have clouds made of water ice, but do not resemble hurricanes. A Martian cyclone 1000 miles in diameter was observed in 1998 by the Hubble Space Telescope. The Great Red Spot on Jupiter is also a storm of huge dimensions with incredible wind speeds, but this storm is not hurricane-like--there is no "eyewall" surrounding a cloud-free "eye".


Figure 2. Martian cyclone 1000 miles in diameter spotted near Mars' north pole by the Hubble Space Telescope on April 27, 1999. Image credit: NASA and hubble.org.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Have fun Dr. M, forget work!! Welcome to FL.
Bring yer Sunscreen Doc.The Cassini Mission to Saturn yeilding big results in a Big Planet.Have Fun in the sun.
Sanibel is right up the road from me Dr. Yes, it changed alot post Charley. I went up there two months after Charley and the tree devastation was indeed very harsh. The causeway rebuild project is still underway so it's a bit of an eye sore getting on the island. Other that all the damage on Captiva, alot of the islands have restored and rebuilt since Charley. Wilma brushed through as well but not with that kind of damage.

Enjoy your vacation here in SWFla!
leave the laptop!! of course you will.
Enjoy your vacation, Doc.
I was reading about this Saturn hurricane a few days ago, very interesting!
Have a great vacation and try not to think of work!
I was at Cayo Costa SP a few days ago. All of the structures are rebuilt, and the dock has been completely replaced. The main difference is that all of the Australian pines are gone. What Charley did not take, the clean-up crew did. Australian pines are considered invasive and are typically removed when a good opportunity comes along. The cover is a little sparse near the Gulf beach at this time.
Enjoy yourself while visiting our lovely state Dr. Masters!!!

Hopefully, there will be nothing of consequence to report on tropics wise, but we need to keep an eye on the Carribbean as the models continue to predict a system forming in the next few days. We'll see what the 12z runs indicate...
Have fun in Florida! We will make sure it stays warm for ya!! Enjoy!
Enjoy your vacation Dr Masters. The weather down here has been awesome. The mosquitos aren't dead yet so don't forget the repellent!

Patrap~ I did post a little more on the last blog conserning our discussion. Read this blog by Dr Masters. It's hard to dispute your in the minority these days with your thoughts. That is alot of countrys, organizations & research institutes that beg to differ & wish to inform you.
good morning all

Just checking in to say hello
I took a look at the models just out of curiosity and both the GFS and NOGAPS are calling for development in the SW Caribbean in about 4 days.
nice Dr Master... enjoy your free time...


I think the more we come to an understanding about weather on other planets the more we will know about our own weather here...

We have made some giant leaps these last 5 years in understanding other planets ... especially the sun... as we unlock these secrets I bet we will find the real cause of our planet warming.
Here's a link to a picture earlier this year of 2 Jovian hurricanes both bigger than earth, on Jupiter that got real close to each other. There is more info below the pic.
LoL
I for one Know that Human-induced activity is a sig force in Global Warming.Ive seen it firsthand.In Norway,..England and Here.The numbers cant lie.They are unbiased.And the trend is bad..not locally..but Globally.
Plus..I have 5 refineries near me.I see everyday ..especially in Summer..Clouds form from the Giant Cooling towers..seed Clouds that have produced T-storms Locally in the Lake.Some have even been the only showers generated locally,Due to the Instability ..one Big CAtcracker produces.
Patrap~ The link didn't work this time...I saw it in the last blog...You do realise in the abstract NOAA is saying CO2 is expected to raise SSTs? NOAA isn't on your side here man. Review that list in the link to one of Masters blog that I left you in this one. You will find no support for your side from that long list. Or have you left the dark side?
Oops ~ sorry Patrap that was ricderr I had challenged this morning before coffee...MY BAD:)
LOL..Village People..forgot about that one..
Thats Okay Skyepony..the Link I posted was for ric in Emmys blog..LOL. I was wondering How I got that kinda view from the Pony!
I saw yall posting back & forth.I usually stay out that debate.
Patrap mistaken for ric..Now Im going to cry...Naaaaaaaaa.LOL
vary cool blog 2 day dr m
Hey i am new here. I have been reading Masters blog for quite some time now, but have never posted anything. I am probably what you would consider a weather-noob; i am only 18.
Great to meet you all. :)
Welcome to the Fray..Nice to meet ya SteveDal
:D I actually live in Canada so i am not as close to the action as you guys are but i am very interested in the weather including this "Saturnicane" :)
The GFS and NOGAPS are calling for development in the SW Caribbean in about 4 days. If something develops will it come near the U.S?
it will not the wind shaer in the gulf is like 70kt and higher
well whats the forcast for shear for the next 72 to 120 hours are there any drops
oh and if you have nothing to do check out project haarp pretty scarry stuff
Shear in the northern half of the gulf is 60kt+...
lets see if this works: Link
Shear may not drop in tell next june for the gulf the gulf is done for this year
Here's the shear maps, you can animate with the box in the upper right or run your curser over the times in the upper left.

SteveDa1~ welcome, we don't care where ya live, the more diverse the more info & interesting.

Patrap once again my 1000 apoligies, I should really stay off this blog within an hour of waking, that's when I get stuff confused.
Have a great vacation Dr. Masters.

Now with regard to 'canes on other planets...how about a WeatherOuterspace blog then!!
Most of the 12Z majors are out. Still on for the caribbean storm, 96E strengthening & most are back at hinting at one moving N through the Atlantic again.

Still waiting on the gfdl on 96E, it's been getting consistant on a major there.
Hey Punta Gorda Pete looks like we are nieghbors
Thanks for the info Dr M!!!!!!!!!!! Great news!
Nice to meet you Skye,

The CMC has been less impressive with the development (12z from yesterday to 00z today) but even if it does happen it will never get to the gulf... it will likely get torned apart or absorbed by a cold front
The ENSO update it out...

I'd say we broke about even for the week.



SteveDa1~ like wise & agreed. Very unlikely all the gulf & SE shear is gonna let up at the end of those loops I posted. Like yesterday, I still think, this is a Caribbean concern.
Yes, if you are in the carribean then this is more of a concern but it is still way out, it can change a lot... we just have to look at all the models and see if they all agree on the development in the next couple of days.
Hurricane Kate was the sixth hurricane to hit the United States during the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season, tying a record. Forming late in the season, it killed 15 people and caused $530 million (2005 USD) in damage on its long path through Cuba, Florida, and Georgia between November 18 and November 22, 1985. Kate is the latest-forming major hurricane on record in the Atlantic, and is one of the latest hurricanes to strike the United States.

Tropical Storm Epsilon developed out of an extratropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean on November 29 that had gradually gained tropical characteristics in the wake of Tropical Storm Delta.[1] It was well east of Bermuda at the time and never would get close to land. Epsilon gradually strengthened into a strong tropical storm before it weakened slightly on December 1. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center predicted Epsilon would weaken further in the highly sheared environment before becoming an extratropical system again.[2] Unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened again on December 2 and became a hurricane over cooler waters averaging 2124C (7075F) and continuing shear, conditions that are highly unfavorable to maintaining a tropical cyclone. The official forecasts continued to predict weakening and eventual dissipation but Epsilon defied them and remained at hurricane strength for several days. At one point on December 4 it was thought that Epsilon had briefly weakened into a tropical storm, but later analysis showed that Epsilon had never weakened at all. Hurricane Epsilon then strengthened further to its peak intensity of 85 mph (135 km/h) just hours later.[1]

Monthly SST forecast for pacific
Monthly SST forecast
I mentioned in my blog about an hour ago that today's 12z CMC run is back on development of the Carribbean system, after the 00z run dropped it. That makes it again three major models showing development.
Invest 96E


13/1715 UTC 12.4N 103.1W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

Tropical Ramdis has their close up floater on it too.
With the shear as hostile as it is, even if something formed in the western Caribbean this week- where would it go that wouldn't spell doom?
GFDL invest 96E forecast drops it to 953.1mb!!
in 5 days and in 4 days a cat. 3 (according to wikipedia)
Steering currents may be a bit weak, which is being shown by all three models forecasting this storm. All three basically have it spinning in one place for a bit.
The GFDL has it west of puerto vallarta, mexico in 5 days but from day 1 to 4 it doesnt move much...
Thank you Nash.
Good afternoon,

Looking at infrared satellite imagery this afternoon and we might already be seeing the thunderstorm activity associated with what the models have been trying to develope in the western caribbean in the next 5-7 days.


For those how did not catch this afternoons NHC discussion here is a mention of the system the models are trying to develope...

A COUPLE OF
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER
THIS REGION. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AT THE END OF THE
WORK-WEEK.
Hey 23. The 12z CMC has jumped back on board with development of this feature..
Hey nash28!Yea i saw that.Seems like the NHC is also keeping close tabs on the situation.
the 12Z nogaps abandon it & 96E, putting it all on a mid atlantic storm that heads N. CMC twins the midatlantic storm & goes agressive with the other 2.

That gfdl brought up is the 00Z run...the 12Z is way late coming out now.
The 12z CMC track iam not likeing as its pulling what ever is down there a bit to the north.
i think it is going to develop but it probably wont hit the United states. If it does i would probably be south florida.
WOW! LOOK AT THE EYE ON THAT HURRICANE! (just kidding, all.)

Look at that poised young man! Nice shirt. Fierce haircut. Strong, bold smile. Here's to you Doc!

so what exactly do you call that? a subtropical low? a subtropical cyclone? a cold-core cyclone?
That storm looks a lot like Hurricane Ophelia in 2005 when it had a huge eye.
That is a non-tropical low associated with a cold front
You can clearly see a spin on Invest 96E: Link
Hello Y'all! It looks like we have a firce Warm-Core Seclusion (I will be referring to that as an WCS) just off the east coast.
Look at how the low doesn't move.

RGB Loop
A lot of dry air wrapping in

link
Here is a close-up view of this mid-atlantic storm...


Cyclone-

I respect your opinion, just as I respect everyones opinion regarding the weather, as long as it isn't full of vitriol or trolling, which you do not do either....

However, you are so obsessed with this global warming issue that every post from you has that intertwined into it... I am not trying to be mean here, but it gets a bit old, especially on Dr. Masters blog... If we are discussing a storm, models, forecasts, etc.... then discuss them.... Again, everyone is entitled to their opinions, I certainly am an opinionated person, as evidenced in past blogs on here.... But I have a question.... Whether we agree or not, which is ok, do we have to discuss global warming with every post? Yes, we know the human race is "somewhat" responsible for global warming, but so is nature..

While our smoke stacks, soccer mom SUV's, aerosols, etc... pollute and heat the planet, I would have to conclude the suns radiation has a little more say than we pissant humans do. The earth has ALWAYS healed itself, and will continue to do so. We are not in control of everything, especially mother nature. When she is pissed, someone gets their ass relocated to another continent. It is horrible and heartbreaking. But not the cause of us. It's too easy to believe we can change mother nature... It is impossible... It is a greater entity than we can ever imagine...

Again, I appreciate your opinions, because it tells me you are thinking and I respect it, so do not take this as a slam.
18z GFS still going with development in the caribbean.

Full 18z GFS loop
that low the GFS is predicting tp devolp looks to be split off from a Troff?
cyclone buster why u dont write a good article then and post it in national geographic or something like that i never heard something about those tunnels only on this site make a website or something like that with ur plan cause those tunnels are driving me crazy
hmm this low off of New Jesrsy pullying the
Blizzard of 06 move?
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 11:13 PM GMT on November 13, 2006.

147257,

Tell me about it they have already diven me crazy!!! Bwhaaaaa!!Bwhaaaaa!!!!Bwhaaaaaa!!!


Ok dude i know globel warming is happinging but
were the %(^# did u come up with that tunnel idea is odd to say the lest.
The last gfdl is almost 24 hrs old. It forecast 96E becoming a Cat 3 threatening Puerta Vallarta in 4 days -- 3 now. You know it's situations like this that give rise to wild rumors. The Mexican Tourism Board ... just joking. (The gfs, ukm, and nogaps are not so aggressive. In fact the last nogaps dropped it entirely.)
That low off the New Jersey coastline is really not going anywhere...

Loop
Invest 96E does not have a nice round structure anymore: Loop

wind shear? I would like a wind shear map for that region. I dont know where to find one, im stilla rookie ;)
Yes SteveDa1, but it does have nice spiral elements, a healthy burst of deep convection over the center, and good upper outflow all around. Take a look at the RGB loop.

Here's the basic current shear link.
SteveDa1, MargieKieper has been following 96E pretty closely. Check out her blog.
From the NHC

...
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST MON NOV 13 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
...
Sorry, i was just eating. It does "explode" a lot, so i guess it has the potential of becoming our next tropical depression.

Thanks for the links LowerCal
I didnt look at your post and I wrote the same thing "it has the potential of becoming a tropical depression" :)
Water temeratures are still very warm and shear is low.
SteveDa1 the "Monthly SST forecast for pacific" you posted earlier make it look like it may be a long this season and an early next season for the East Pac.

I'm in Southern California. What part of the country are you in?
I dont live in the U.S. I live in Canada, more precisely just east of Montreal.

Nice to meet you.
I thought everyone lived around the GOM and carribean but i guess i was wrong, good to have people from all over North America.

About the SST forecast - Yea, when theres an El Nino event, hurricane season is usually dull here in the atlantic as it as been. On the other hand the pacific is fired up.
The weather man on my local news station, during the commercials, had a tropical update which has been unprecendented in this hurricane season. He says that we cold see develop with that area in the near future. Conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone development. This season i thought ended in october but now i think that we will get something out of this.Although the convection is limited now, which typically happens, forecasters are predicting this to become an organized system.

Look like Jeff Master choose the wrong day to take a vacation.
Nice meeting you also.

Have you ever lived in the tropics or do you just find the terrible and beautiful beasts fascinating?
Drakoen...Where are you located?
Haha, well i have never actually been to the tropics but i would love to one day. That day could be next year but in march or april there arent hurricanes or the like. I just find the "terrible and beautiful beasts" as you said, fascinating.
Well guys....they may look pretty from a sat shot. But it ain't no picnic inside one.
102. 882MB
HEY EVERYBODY, I HEARD DR.JEFF IS TAKING A VACATION, WELL HE IS GOING AT A WRONG TIME,BECUSE WE HAVE 96E WHICH APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING AND THE MODELS ARE STILL DEVELOPING A SYSTEM IN THE CARRIBEAN, AND ALSO A STORM IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.WE ARE GONNA BE VERY BUSY THIS WEEK!
I'm originally from SE Florida and weathered a number of tropical storms and hurricanes, Cleo and Betsy the most notable ('64 & '65). I have a lot of family still on the East Coast.

My interest in the East Pacific storms is partly for the large surf they can send to Southern California.
Yes indeed Randrewl and 882mb

and it looks like B.C, Washington and Oregon will have to embrace another soaker soon: Link
882MB your caps lock is on.
Yeah I remember Cleo and Betsy...Donna and many many others.
LowerCal - The only thing that could be life threatening where i live is something like the 98' Ice Storm or an insane Blizzard. I am not affected by the tropics by any mean and i am still interested :)
108. 882MB
I KNOW ITS ON LOWERCAL I LIKE TO WRITE WITH MY CAPS ON!I JUST READ THE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION IN ACCUWEATHER.COM AND THEY MENTION THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN.THEY SAY THAT WHEN THE FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH HERE IN MIAMI DIVES SOUTHWARD AND JOINS UP WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WE MIGHT SEE DEVELOPMENT.
Rand, I didn't see the worst of Donna being in Ft. Lauderdale. Where were you?
Yes it is probable that it will develop but there is no way for it to affect the U.S. if the wind shear remains this high (60kt+).
In my opinion it is only a Carribean concern.
I am fascinated about this discovery on Saturn. Further analysis of the windy planet will be exciting in the coming months and years.
Are we sharing old storm stories?
I ask kindly for help on how to post a picture on this blog, the only reason i got the SST one is because i knew the dimensions. But when you dont know what Width and Height to put, what do you do? I tried and when i click "preview comment" it doesnt show the picture. Thanks.
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STEVEDA1 WHEN YOU GET A LATE SEASON STORM IN THE CARRIBEAN THESE STORMS ALWAYS MAKE THERE OWN ENVIROMENT AS THE MOVE ALONG, FOR EXAMPLE LAST YEAR WHEN WILMA WAS DEVELOPING THERE WAS WIND SHEAR IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WHAT ENDED UP HAPPENING WE STILL HAD A MAJOR STORM.
Da1, thing is shear changes, sometimes a lot. Now you need someone to give you some shear forecast links.
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THESE MONSTER STORMS ALWAYS MAKE THERE OWN ENVIROMENT ALSO ANOTHER ONE WAS MITCH.
Donna...1960. I live on the East side of Lake O. We had 120mph winds around here from Donna.
LowerCal - Yes that would help. The shear has been high for weeks, why would it change now?

Missperfect - I dont think whatever you did worked ;)

882mb - yes but wilma was a category 5, cat 5 hurricanes usually make their own environment. I doubt that a T.S. or minimal hurricane will be strong enough to cut through the wind shear.
Will this storm hit the U.S? If so where?
Da1 I'd like to help you out right now but I have to go. Put 640 for the width anything for the height but delete the height=### later. I really have to go I'll be back later. Mail MichaelSTL, he's good with it and helpful. Bye.
Alright no rush, bye.
Rand, east side of Lake O and 120 mph winds, really dangerous!

BBL
mgreen - We cant really say where something that hasnt even formed yet will go
Thanks Steve Da1..
126. 882MB
ITS NOT THAT STEVEDA1 WHEN YOU HAVE A LATE SEASON STORM AS THEY MOVE NORTH THEY BRING THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT VENTILATES THE STORM WITH IT NORTH AND HELPS IT STRENGHTHEN!BUT WHO KNOWS YOU MIGHT BE RIGHT PROBABLY IF IT STAYS WEAK THEN THE SHEAR WILL TEAR IT UP!
"Drakoen...Where are you located?"
I am in South Florida in Palm Beach county north of broward county.
I am watching the tropics very closely as this system has gotten better organized. Although the convection is light that could easily change.
I doubt this system will affect the U.S.A and if it does it would be extreme southern florida.
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AS I SEE THE SATELLITE LOOP OF THE SOUTHWEST CARRIBEAN YOU CAN DEFINITELY NOTICE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE NEAR PANAMA OR SOUTH OF PANAMA, YOU CAN ALSO SEE FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS WITH A LITTLE VENTILATION AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS, NOW AS THE TROPICAL WAVE THATS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARRIBEAN MOVES WEST AND THE STRONG FRONT THATS FORECASTED THIS WEEK MOVES SOUTH THIS WILL BRING SPECIAL INGREDIENTS SO A STORM CAN DEVELOP.
Convection is very light as of now: link

Is it just me or the El Nino seems to have weakened:
Anomaly
Not much of anything right now to look at in the Western Carib. Maybe tomorrow.
I did it! I was able to post a picture without knowing the dimensions. :)
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YEAH RANDREWL I HAVE A FEELING TOMORROW IT MIGHT START TO FLARE UP!
The next front is still five days away from being far enough south to aid in development. Just have to wait and see what starts brewing.
the convection will most likely start flaring up again tommorrow. Hopefully this willnot be another 93L where the convection goes on and off.
135. 882MB
RANDREWL THE FRONT IS NOT GONNA MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH ITS JUST GONNA HELP VENTILATE IT AND ADD MORE MOISTURE!
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I DONT REMEMBER 93L WHICH ONE WAS THAT ONE DRAKOEN???????
That's correct 882. It won't cross me till sometime Thursday.
the last tropical wave that everyone got so excited about and ended being nothing as it encontered land.
139. 882MB
I JUST DONT FEEL GOOD ABOUT THIS SYSTEM THAT MAY FORM IN THE CARRIBEAN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT HAS ALOT OF INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR STORM!
140. 882MB
MY BAD FOR A STORM
lol you live in florida?
lets not jump the gun first lets wait and see if it gets more organized. yes the enviroment is conducive for tropical cyclone development, but its a wait and see game.
142. 882MB
ARE YOU TALKING TO ME DRAKOEN?IF YOU ARE YES I LIVE IN MIAMI,FL.
Five day surface chart.





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HOW MANY OF YOU THINK NEXT YEAR'S HURRICANE SEASON MIGHT BE ACTIVE?
with la nina maybe?
i am gonna go i am keep an eye on that SW car. see you guys tommorrow. i will have my own personal update from what my local weather station says.
Most models forecast a moderate El Nino through August:



A few models do show a trend to La Nina near the end of the period, but others also indicate restrengthening.
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GOODNIGHT EVERYBODY SEE YA TOMMOROW!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yea, after next winter, the models are going all over the place.

In my opinion we are starting to head into a quieter patern over the next couple of years. At least next year... I believe this El Nino will last until september, 2007 because it started later than normal. After many active years i think its time for this to happen.
Good evening once again....

Just checked the 00z NAM and it continues to develope a system in the western caribbean.

00z NAM loop

Whether or not this feature even developes or has any affect on the united states is still a big if as there may be a cold-front pushing towards the southeast that may actually scoop this system out the NE before it ever has any chance to affect the united states.
Seems like 96E has gotten better organized this evening.
Here is an IR loop of 96E showing how its gotten much better organized.I expect this system has a good chance at reaching TD status and might even make to a moderate to strong TS if the current organization continues.
Officially TD 21-E.

LOL at Wunderground's track map. Depression forming at 0 degrees N and 0 degrees W.
The NHC made a goofup as well:



STORM_FULLNAME?
lol depression at the equator.
Finally a new 00Z gfdl!
The new 00Z gfdl has 21E briefly a Cat 4 at 96 hrs before coming ashore as a TD near Puerto Vallarta. The NHC is obviously buying none of it. :)

That's enough excitement for me this evening. Good night all.
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140441
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
1000 PM PDT MON NOV 13 2006

OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND BANDING FEATURES ARE STARTING
TO BECOME MORE EVIDENT. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH WOULD REVERSE THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BELOW THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE SINCE WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT MODEL IS DIAGNOSING
STRONG ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/7. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLAPSE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE BOTH A POOR
INITIALIZATION AND AN UNREALISTIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY
SEEM TO OVEREMPHASIZE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF
LEAST REGRET IS TO FORECAST A SLOW...AND GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...
MOTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0500Z 12.9N 104.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.0N 105.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 106.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 15.0N 106.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W 30 KT
00z GFS seems to have backed off on the idea on development in the western caribbean...

Complete 00z GFS loop
Surface analysis is only showing an area of low pressure in the SW Carib.





Good morning all!

I see that 23! CMC and NOGAPS are falling into better aggrement on whatever it is hanging around for a couple days then NE with the trough, missing the US. I seem to prefer the GFS solution though, with the area of low pressure moving into the EPAC! Have to see what unfolds.
Morning Rand!
Morning Pulse. Guess we'll see what happens in the next two days.
Seems the GFDL on 21E has an area of low pressure crossing into the EPAC in the same area as well!
Let's just try to get through the holiday's without any surprises. Hate to be thankful for some ice and cold water on Thanksgiving!
LOL.....I don't think we have anything to worry about. Hopefully our Caribbean friends won't either.
Any chance of main land getting affected?
Thanks for your many kind comments wishing me a good trip--we will need to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean near Nicaragua this weekend, as a cold front moving through the region Thu-Fri may leave behind an area of disurbed weather that could develop. Any development would take several days to get going, and would most likely be a threat to Nicaragua/Honduras. In the Eastern Pacific, those of you travelling to Puerto Vallarta will need to watch TD 21E, the latest GFDL model run has this as a major hurricane hitting the city on Saturday.

I'm looking forward to being in sunny Florida this afternoon! I'm taking the advice of some of you and not bringing my laptop, so I won't be tempted to blog while I'm gone.

Jeff Masters
Have a wonderful time Dr. Masters!!!!
Have a good trip, Doc! Pity those Tampa wunderbloggers aren't taking u out to lunch. . . or helping u catch dinner! LOL

21E now Sergio.

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
SINCE 1961 THAT TWO TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BASIN IN NOVEMBER...AND ONLY FIVE STORMS HAVE FORMED LATER
IN THE SEASON THAN SERGIO.
When vacationing on the Gulf Coast, it is always a good idea to check the red tide reports. Sanibel looks clear, but it is in the area of Pine Island Sound just to the North.
173. IKE
Welcome to sunny Florida Dr. Masters...

Strong cold front and our first freeze of the season is approaching us here in the Florida panhandle this weekend.
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters! Enjoy your trip.
NHC on Sergio!

WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 29C...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST. I DON'T
SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE
SHORT RUN...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY. THE SHIPS R-I INDEX
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AS DOES THE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE. WHILE THERE IS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PRESUMES THAT SERGIO WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE SHEAR.


Could have a late season major on our hands!
Sergio... fitting name for this El Nino season.
178. HAARP
MORE cool space links

here is the new solar camera... amazing what this will do to understand the sun... and maybe shed some light on how its affecting earth...
Link

AND the first ever high definition broadcast from space...

this will be stunning
Link
thanks haarp even more of a reason to get my hd tv this year
181. 882MB
HEY EVERYBODY, IM OUT QUICKLY JUST PASSIN BY TO SAY THAT ALOT OF CONVECTION IN THE SW CARRIBEAN MORE THAN YESTERDAY.ILL BE BACK THIS EVENING!
182. IKE
Posted By: 882MB at 11:44 AM CST on November 14, 2006.

HEY EVERYBODY, IM OUT QUICKLY JUST PASSIN BY TO SAY THAT ALOT OF CONVECTION IN THE SW CARRIBEAN MORE THAN YESTERDAY.ILL BE BACK THIS EVENING!


Where?
Where?
12Z CMC....72hrs out.





Well, the CMC is now the only model doing anything with this disturbance, so we'll see if it comes to fruition.
The gfs is getting fickle, changing it's mind about every possible storm with each run.

I think I'm ready to start calling it a blob.
Which basin are you blobbing in Skye?
nogaps keeps it somewhat weak.
Tough call on which basin..lol.

The central Pacific is where it is really going off today. The far left is a new invest. 92C at 25kts. The blob on the right kinda popped up since this morning.
Yeah, NOGAPS has backed way off from the 00Z.
I also notice most models spin up something in the mid-ATL. . . .
THE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN OFF PANAMA ALSO ATTRIBUTED TO THE ITCZ.
Here's the surface for Sunday. Hurricane Sergio is there also.





Go Sergio!!!

Sergio now has winds of 45kt it could be a hurrican by the end of the day
Tazmanian - will Sergio be a threat to land?
yes MX
oh nevere mine it will out 2 sea
The models vary on where it might go.

Regardless of what the GFS or NOGAPS has done with their recent run, I believe we will have an Invest in the SW Carribbean within the next couple of days. Conditions are prime for development...
Good afternoon,

Tropical storm SERGIO has gotten alot better organized today with an eye like feature trying to form.Winds are now to 45kts according to the 18:00z models.From what i see this system has everything going for it and could very well intensify into a very powerful cyclone in the next couple of days.The 12z GFDL takes SERGIO to 135kts.

Current visible pic of SERGIO.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
you have 2 be kinding 135kt is all most a cat 5
Taz SERGIO is under very favorable conditions and futher strengthing is very likely,infact rapid intensification is a very good possiblity with this cyclone.SST'S are plenty warm and shear is not a factor at this time.

For those who have not checked out my new website feel free to stop by and leave thoughts in my guestbook.

Adrian's Weather
ok 23 and its not moveing march at all
heres a mimic a sergioLink
GFDL @ 135kts....Sergio


Mexico could get slammed again...They have been having a bad year. First John, then Lane, the heavy rains from Paul, and now Sergio!
Sergio could smash the record for the strongest November storm in the East Pacific (Hurricane Nora in 1991; 100 mph, 970 mb).
Seems possible.
What's next? Maybe 92C will do something like this.
may be lol
Sergio doesn't have a well-developed core yet, but one could be forming!

The upper-level environment for Sergio is very favorable for rapid intensification
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 4:38 PM CST on November 14, 2006.

What's next? Maybe 92C will do something like this.


Or this!
Maximum potential intensity:



I actually doubt that 92C will amount to much.
I think the GFDL might be over doing it with Sergio intensity wise.
The ships model takes Sergio to around 70-75kts and then weaking it rather fast due to increasing windshear.
I can't even find the center of the Invest!

Looks rather disorganized .
Current intensity analysis with Sergio
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Windshear is unfavorable to the north of Sergio, so as Sergio begins to move that direction, it will weaken.

GFDL may be too generous with the intensity this time....
Current sat picture.



Any guesses on maximum intensity?
55mph
I mean the highest the storm will achieve.
Hey nash28!

The NHC leaves the possiblity open for rapid-intensification to take place.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY RAPID...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND A
WARM DEEP OCEAN. THE GFDL IS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AND MAKES SERGIO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSERVATIVE...
TAKING THE CYCLONE ONLY TO 70 KT IN 2 DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO EXTREMES...AND
IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
100 2 115 my thinking
I don't know about maximum intensity but it looks like he's about to open his eye now.
I would say if shear remains light intensification may reach anywere between 60-80kts.Rapid strengthing is a possibility.
I'm going with 120 mph and ~950 mb personally. Of course, I do tend to forcast a little high. That was my estimate with Paul, but he only had winds of 110 mph. Slightly off...
Posted By: LowerCal at 5:01 PM CST on November 14, 2006.

I don't know about maximum intensity but it looks like he's about to open his eye now.


Wake up Sergio!
LOL
Here is a view at Sergio's forcasted path...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Nothing in the 18z GFS forcasting development in the western caribbean.

I think theres a slim chance any development will occur as model support has been dwindling all day today.If it took place i dont see being a U.S. problem.

18z GFS loop
23...you crack me up. Could you use any more plagurism in your posts. I mean I feel like I'm reading clips and quotes from the NHC with every word you type. Whatever though, everyone else must be naive in thinking your posts are original.
Overall this season couldn't have turned out better for everyone as folks along the gulfcoast have had time to put there lives back together.Hopefully everyone can manage to have a great holiday season.

Here's a link to my site...thoughts are welcomed in my guestbook.

Adrian's Weather
Hey all, whats going on this evening?
I had a feeling sergio would show up: Loop
Not much wind shear in his way

wind shear
The IR seems to show there is moisture & energy to work with in the EPac, but it gets used up fast, systems wax & wane, dryer/cooler air encroaching, outflow limited... I don't see 100mph again this year NW hemisphere IMHO.
Looks like a CDO might be developing with Sergio...


Could I know what IMHO means?
246. 882MB
HEY PEOPLE,MODELS ARE NOW BACKING UP ON THE SW CARRIBEAN STORM.I STILL SEE FAVORABLE CNDITIONS AND WARM SST'S. I SAY WE STILL WATCH THIS AREA.ILL BE BACK IN A FEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
IMHO=in my humble opinion
Link A guide to internet slang - 2006 EmoticonUniverse.com. All Rights Reserved Worldwide.
I only see the CMC forecasting this storm in the SW carribean and moving extremely slowly. Used this website to view models: Link
I am still a rookie, i dont think i have enough links and im probably not using the best sites... ill get there.

Thanks Skyepony and Hiexpress for the link :)
Sorry, should have identified that link as a guide to internet slang IMCO
251. eye
People along the Gulf Coast have next season also, El Nino takes 2 years to leave, so right when they have rebuilt, they new codes etc probably will be tested. 2007 i think will be similiar(or less active) then this season, 2008 will be no El Nino. They are forcasting El Nino to still be here in the spring
HOLY MOLY!!!! GFDL has Sergio Peaking as a Very Powerful Category Four Near Landfall With Winds Of 155mph!!!! SERGIO MAY BECOME A CAT FIVE IF THE GFDL MODEL IS CORRECT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am also certain that next year will be normal or below normal in terms of hurricane activity. I also think that we are heading into a quieter pattern and its about time because the tropics have been active the past couple of years. There was something on accuweather.com that I read last year and it said that we were at peak hurricane activity and that it goes through cycles. It showed a map with cycles in hurricane activity over the past 120 years and it did look like a roller coaster. In my opinion we are going down and thats good.
Yea, I saw that too Hurricaneblast, yesterday it showed peak intensity of strong Cat.3 and now its showing strong Cat.4 just making landfall.
El Nino certainly, by history's story, doesn't take 2 years to leave...Link...red is el nino, blue is la nina.
On El Nino duration - I thought the same as you stated Skye, but the table you posted does have some longer stretches listed.
OMG!...

Currently im in my newspaper newsroom monitoring Sergio... Latest trayectory put this hurricane moving toward Baja... I live in Baja.. so.. ur information will be very very important for me now.
1991 to 1994 is often considered to be one long El Nino, in contrast to what the CPC has. Also, the El Nino forecast has El Nino remaining through next summer (June-July-August):

HIEXPRESS~ There isn't a single 2 year or more stretch of el nino on that table... Most are around 1/2 a year, some a year & a few are a little longer.

Some models had baja under the gun yesterday or the day before, I put in my blog today ya'll still got an outside chance this season...especially as popular target it has been this year.
The GFDL landfalls it right aroung puerto vallarta as a cat 4 hurricane.
Interesting link Skye on all of the el ninos and la ninas, seems theres a moderate to strong El Nino every 8-14 years (57/58, 65/66, 72/73, 82/83, 97/98, Now?).
Skye, Maybe I'm reading it wrong. Maybe their -0.5C threshold is too low? I see MAM'54 to DJF'57, AMJ'73 to AMJ'76, and JJA'98 to MJJ'00 are groups of "blue"? Help me out.
Added later: Duh, Brain fart, Should have been looking at + reds
MichaelSTL that 91-94 stretch, it clearly goes nuetral by definition & even a bit neg in the neutral at times...of 1/2 those years during the peak of 'cane season. 92 brought us Andrew & 93~ a couple of hundred deaths...'94 over 1000.

ENSO models aren't that great over all & most of those are saying when we average out june, july & aug of next year we will still have el nino...which will have offically begun in the average of aug, sept, oct of this year... so you haven't even shown me a model saying it is forcasted to last a full year...when I'm arguing it's not gonna last 2 full years. I really wouldn't be supprised to see it dampen next season some. But lasting 2 full, solid, offical years~ unlikely...it hasn't happened in the 56 years of records we have.
the weather in SW carribean is look more disorganized from yesterday. Although the convection wasn't there yesterday the cloud formation indicated development. Right now there just seem to be scattered clouds with little convection. Once that front passes through there is a very slight chance something could develop. Even if something does develop it would most likely not affect the U.S. Due the the steering currents.

As for sergio i think rapid intensification will happen with this system. But not as strong as the the GFDL model. probably a strong category 2 or minimal category 3 hurricane.
I guess then this is wrong:

The 1991 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 1991, and lasted until November 30, 1991. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The season experienced relatively low activity with just eight named storms, likely as the result of a strong El Nio that lasted from 1991 to 1994.

Link
NHC
A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-76W.

ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...SEE
ABOVE. LIGHT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...PANAMA...AND COSTA
RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF
70W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 13N...
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

00:00z models have Sergio now at 55kts almost a cane.Also SSD dvorak T numbers are up now up to 3.5
Posted By: Skyepony at 8:12
goes nuetral by definition & even a bit neg in the neutral at times...of 1/2 those years during the peak of 'cane season
Opinions? Does the ElNino "hold back the 'canes" then allow more intense storms when it wanes, or are there other conditions that cause the ElNino to temporarily relax and at the same time bring out the tropical storms in season?
Banding features are now seen very nicely on infrared imagery...
yea it looks really impressive, i think rapid intensification is not out of the question with system; in fact i think it is likely to happen.
Sergio is Developing a nice CDO....


Additionally -
"The average duration of El Nio is about 18 months."

"one finds that the average duration per episode should be
≈16 mo in length." - El Nio During the 1990s:
Harbinger of Climatic Change
or Normal Fluctuation?

Robert M. Wilson
Marshall Space Flight Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama
Winds with Sergio have increased to 65 mph in the 7pm pst advisory.

NHC track...
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
10PM - Sergio
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

It's the storm before the calm.
Wandered off to NOVA, the 2nd 1/2 of the show after it has some great stuff on lightning.

Come on MichaelSTL:)...I'm citing NOAA & your citing Wikipedia...

HIEXPRESS~ Read on the top of that NOAA link Blue is la nina, red el nino & unhighlighted is nuetral... -5/+5 being the cut off. But a condition above or below that has to exist constantly for 5 consecutive sets of 3 months. They aren't measured by each month, but a blend of data over 3 months to get each set of #s. Most of last 'cane season was neutral with the end being on the cold end, tripping into what looked like a fast & stong La Nina. That -.7 for NDJ (nov, dec, jan) of last & start of this year may have helped extend the last 'cane season with some late storms. It was a reason of gloom & doom at the time for this cane season. But it never even developed into an "official" La Nina, since it only lasted 3 sets of months.

& yes there is some la ninas that lasted 2 years, but I don't see any El Ninos...which is what I was discussing.

Try your Skill...Link
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
0300 UTC WED NOV 15 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 104.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 104.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
link to the full including forecast

Ship report~ there has only been 1 in the last 6 hrs.

Patrap~ I died 3 times over til I landed the apollo.
I see a rapid intensification coming.
You guys are whacked!
The Canadian is the only global still showing a Western Carib system. The GFS and NOGAPS have both backed off for the last two runs.
GFS has whatever it is rolling into the EPAC after two runs.
Here's the 00Z Canadian out to 126 hours. That's the only global working this right now.




Other than that...the NHC is not speaking and the surface charts do not support anything right now.
Maybe Friday.....maybe.
Mornin, Rand. Its a glorious one..........
Mornin, Rand. Its a glorious one....................
...oooops, sorry.
Supposed to be windy and stormy here today. Tornado watches, large hail and wind 25 - 35 with gust to 45....Go figure.
Re: the discussion on next season.........will it, wont it be a bad/good one as far as tropical storm activity is concerned. The historical info re. el nino/ la nina would tend to show that the season ought to be relatively quiet, but I cant help feeling that the history of weather,as it pertains to forecasting, is becoming more irrelevant, due to changes in the overall conditions of the factors that drive tropical storms ( and all weather ) In short, there has NEVER been a period like this before, where the atmosphere has been in this current condition, and it is continually changing. Our knowlege of weather systems has huge gaps in it, because the rules are changing and we have not got enough info to make factual assesment. I would not be suprised to see the weather continue to bamboozle us, until we understand what effect we are having on it.....
TOKYO, Japan (AP) -- Japan's Meteorological Agency has issued a tsunami warning after an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 8.1 hit the Kuril islands north of Japan.

The quake struck about 390 kilometers east of the Etorofu islands north of Japan at 1115 GMT Wednesday, according to the agency.

A tsunami of about 2 meters (6.5 feet) or more could hit the Pacific coast of Japan's northernmost island of Hokkaido and main island of Honshu after 1210 GMT, the agency said.

The agency told residents along Japan's Pacific coast to flee to higher ground
Posted By: pottery at 6:18 AM (& discussed by others)
"next season.........will it, wont it be a bad/good one as far as tropical storm activity is concerned. The historical info re. el nino/ la nina would tend to show"

In case you haven't seen it, you will be interested to read the text of Drs. Klotzbach and Gray's EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND U.S. LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2006 as updated periodically, especially the explanation of their methodology.

Read their:

Early 2006 - with the discussion of their methodology

Update through September discussing LAter ElNino developments.

As they tell it, ENSO is just one factor, albeit a big one.

Very enlightening.
If there is anyone here that is located directly on the west coast, be ready to evacuate! It may turn out to be a false alarm, but if it isn't, even from across the Pacific, an 8.1 magnitude earthquake can produce a huge tsunami!

: (

Gotta go to school now!
Look at the latist satillite imagines on Serico!!!! Im 100% sure theres an eye starting to open up! I wont be suprized to see this be
a Hurricane by next advisory.

this dosent show the eye but if you scroll up
and look at images that have arlready been posted u will see an eye.
Severe warnings page ..Link
How bout ya sandcrab.You around lurking or Working?...Come bac..
Patrap how did your area make out with the storms?
West coast is under a Tsunami advisory and from Seatle North a Tsunami watch prepare NOW
Some ominous looking radar returns with that line in MS coming into Panhandle FL, "S"hooks, tops 54,000'
WV - Battle Zone
IM back..lost power..Im getting Hammered..Tops to 40KLink
Im at the 9oclock postion..in the Circle..Link
Possible Tornadoes on N shore Lake.Washington & Tangipahoa Parishes.Lotsa wind translating down with these storms.SOn has 2;30 pm kickoff.
Link Removed / Broken
Morning all..
Randrewl you seen our local Hazard? Middle of the night for us, may be worth taking a nap.

Dr Masters may get some rough weather as well..suppose he's tent camping?

Hope no tsunomis come of that quake.
noticed the fsu page wasn't up to date on gfs & nogaps..look here for current.
I'm leaving the SPC link to the damage reports...they are rolling in already.

bbl
Rough day all around Skyepony..This line ..or system pushing lotsa winds down to the surface.
I'll suppose those damage reports to get longer in a hurry.
GAle Warnings now Posted here Skye..till 6pm.For Lake Mauerpas and Lake Ponchatrain.Land areas too.Thats a blowing.
Heres the Posted WU page for the area.Link
Patrap~ The scary part for those to the east of you is how severe your having it...without the effects of daytime heating.
Im in a break now..with round two coming..Link
Sorry, lightning link above was OOS
May have to shut down again.No surge protection for my PC here in the trailer.Think we will ride this one out inside the house.
Take Care PAT.
Thanks ALL for Severe Weather Info.
You'All Rock!
FRAN
Morning all ... Pat ... please take cover ... looks nasty for you over there! Also .. all clear on the tsunami in Japan ... they had 6 events ... highest was like 12-16 inches. Very good news.
TV said between 700 to 730 HST I think 130EST the wave if there is one will arrive in Kauai. Shortly after the wave will hit the north shore of Oahu. There are a number of cameras live web site serving us. Surfinglive.com, surfline, http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/, has live streaming of many beaches. Hopefully only a small surge. Luckily there are no surf warning presently there posted. Iam watching the SW Carib like you all Should be interesting if something spins off the ITZ down there.
We Okay here..Now just heavy rains...hope to get my Sons football game in at 2:30cst.
Pat it looks awful....just looked at Mobal's blog...BE CAREFUL!!
Eyewall Clearing out in Sergio!
We will Gator.Lotsa rain now.
New Tornado watch Boxes..as it moves up and east.Link
Good afternoon,

Here are a couple of picks of Hurricane Sergio as its CDO becomes more cymetrical with time.




Here's one more from NRL...

Click on thumbnail for larger image
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Hurricane Sergio Special Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 9:00 am PST on November 15, 2006



this special advisory is being issued to reflect that Sergio has
intensified to 85 knots. This is based on the development of a
pinhole eye and objective Dvorak-T-numbers. The intensity forecast
has been a conservatively adjusted accordingly and the initial and
12 hour wind radii have been expanded. No change in forecast track
is indicated.

A PINHOLE EYE!!
It does look stronger. 12:00 EST
"ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT."

who has the pool?