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Hurricane Zeta?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:27 PM GMT on January 03, 2006

The Hurricane Season of 2005 refuses to quit. Tropical Storm Zeta has not changed much since yesterday, but the forecast for its future has changed considerably. Zeta may become a hurricane by tomorrow. The upper-level trough approaching Zeta is splitting in two, leaving a area of low wind shear just in front of the storm. Wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that Zeta's westward motion is carrying the storm into an area of low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this reduced wind shear has the potential to allow Zeta to intensify into a hurricane, something the GFDL model has been consistently predicting for three days.

The reduced wind shear also means that Zeta will hang around much longer than previously thought. A trough of low pressure just to Zeta's west is expected to turn the storm northwards tomorrow, but this trough will probably not be strong enough to completely recurve the storm. Zeta will have to wait for the next trough late in the week before finally recurving and dissipating. During that period, Zeta may reach hurricane intensity for a day or so before increasing shear knocks it back down to a tropical storm.

Long-term tropical storm outlook for January
Today's model runs are now suggesting that a non-tropical low pressure system will form off the coast of Africa on Sunday, in a location similar but a little farther east of where Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta all formed. It is possible that this low could make the transition to a tropical storm early next week. However, the cooler water temperatures in this low's more easterly location will probably keep it from forming into a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Zeta as seen by the polar-orbiting Terra satellite. Image courtesy of the Navy Research Lab.

Tomorrow: More on Zeta, and the Texas/Oklahoma drought.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Yup and there's also the possibility that the next trough could split too [hysterical laughter].

I'm thinking possibly 75-90kts by tomorrow this time.
wow to zeta!
Although...quikscat link is back up and Zeta is weaker at the surface although at least one vector over 50kt. I think some little reorg going on at this time. Zeta will be solidly in an area of lower shear by the time the diurnal max rolls around.
I pray for it to veer northward, tomorrow if possible, as it is right in the path of the boats who are in The Atlantic Race!!
Sandi
Oh the guys in the little boats~ we watched them sweat over Epsilon, i still had the link. Here's the weather report they all recieved today on they're home page. Said waves to 20 ft.
Hi guys,

Since it is 2006 why is Zeta not Alberto? Are we not considering this a part of the 2006 Hurricane season? LOL I hate to laugh because I hope this is not a sign of what is to come during the "real" hurricane season, but it is a hoot...

Thanks!
My guess is that although it is '06, Zeta was named in '05.
It formed on the 30th December - hence 2005 not 2006
Zeta formed in 2005, so it's a 2005 storm.
Sandi most of those rowers ought to be down around 20N where they'll have an easier time of it...Zeta won't affect them that far south. It's going W and then N anyway.
Thanks squeak,
That is what I am hoping by looking at predicted path. Still wouldn't like to be out there on the sea in a boat approx 20ft long !!
Looks like the 2005 hurricane season has gone into overtime!

The ACE record is gonna fall by tomorrow for sure.
Satellite presentation has been up and down so far today, so I will not change my intensity forecast. QuickScat still shows a couple of 55kt vectors, and outflow is improving in three of the four quadrants. A mid-level eye feature and a ring of deep convection resembling an eyewall has developed this morning, so if there is any sign of weakening at the moment it is just a reorganization process. I expect to find Hurricane Zeta after tonight's diurnal maximum.

00 hr: 23.0N - 42.1W 55 kt
12 hr: 23.0N - 42.8W 60 kt
24 hr: 23.0N - 44.0W 70 kt
36 hr: 23.5N - 45.0W 75 kt
48 hr: 24.7N - 45.5W 65 kt
72 hr: 27.5N - 46.5W 50 kt
96 hr: 30.2N - 47.0W 40 kt...Becoming Extratropical
To clear it up, Zeta formed at 1pm AST on December 30th 2005. That means that Zeta was named as the 27th tropical cyclone of 2005, and even though it has carried over into 2006, the original formation was in 2005 so it keeps the name Zeta. All statistics from Zeta go towards the 2005 season regardless of how long it lasts.

Hey TampaSteve. You are correct. If Zeta maintains 60 mph+ for 3 more advisories then the ACE Index record is broken. If Zeta can stay a hurricane or a tropical storm for at least 13 more advisories then the ACE Index for any month of January is broken as well.
did ya'll notice the 12Zgfdl inished at 69.7 kts?
Hmm, remind me not to ask such a dumb question the next time :o( Sorry
To clear it up, Zeta formed at 1pm AST on December 30th 2005. That means that Zeta was named as the 27th tropical cyclone of 2005, and even though it has carried over into 2006, the original formation was in 2005 so it keeps the name Zeta. All statistics from Zeta go towards the 2005 season regardless of how long it lasts.

Hey TampaSteve. You are correct. If Zeta maintains 60 mph+ for 3 more advisories then the ACE Index record is broken. If Zeta can stay a hurricane or a tropical storm for at least 13 more advisories then the ACE Index for any month of January is broken as well.
Don't worry about it Pensacola, there are no dumb questions here. We are happy to answer any questions that anyone has.
Don't worry about it Pensacola, there are no dumb questions here. We are happy to answer any questions that anyone has.
Yeah Skyepony, its showing some pretty rapid intensification in the next 24 hours as well.
Looks like Zeta is indeed strengthening. Check out the shortwave: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

These storms just dont quit lol.
A low-level eye feature is developing fast, and convection is wrapping right around that eye feature. We may be looking at rapid organization.
Rapid intensification? How are these things doing this? Send a plane out to at least one of these storms if we can, we may not see them for many years to come.
What's with the two double-posts Atmos? lol
as crazy as Zeta is, reading Dr. Master's January tropical storm outlook is even crazier!
Sorry quakeman, it is my stupid computer. I could go on all day about it....
hey atmos et al - didn't think I'd be back till spring when the new hurricane season started. It now seems that this one will just roll along, for how long is anyone's guess...
Yeah Trouper. We are extremely lucky to be watching something like this happen, and just lucky to see such an amazing year as 2005. We will never see anything like it again, so enjoy it now. Unbelievable.
This will be our last storm until late May or early June. 85% sure of it. I give it a 15% chance of another storm forming before May 15th.
atmosweather says
"We will never see anything like it again,"

I wonder how sure you are? and would you think it a safe bet!!!!
Ok. Put every amazing event and storm that has occured in 2005-06. Can you imagine a repeat? All those incredible events? I cannot see this happening for hundreds of years.
Just hope you are right, as I certainly wouldn't like to think of it repeating. sandi
Poor Zeta.

The WSW shear to the south has really done a number on the convection, and the 4pm is saying the trough will have a negative effect over the next day or so. As Zeta gets weaker she is being steered closer to the strong shear to the south, rather than towards the area of lower shear to the NW.

However the advis did not reduce the intensity and I think this is so they will be in the middle, and thus not too far off, should Zeta weaken, or get an opportunity to strengthen, either way.
Ah--there's a billowing up of convection beginning to occur on the south side of the circulation. This might help to give it a more symmetrical appearance later on tonight and may well be on its way to hurricane status. It certainly isn't over yet!

IR Loop
It'll def make hurricane strength at tonight's max, given the structure.
Forecast models say it will get picked up and pulled north by a low that will move off the east coast. If it misses this low, what are the chances that this thing might stay together long enough to scrape the east coast as a big ole nor'easter?
Link

Is it just me, or does it look like an eyewall forming?
it is quite interesting to see Zeta in the middle of a vast rolling desert of cold fronts and shear. it doesnt look very impressive as of now but, with the way its been holding out, it seems destined to explode into a hurricane. also, this one looks to last a very long time, the gfdl has it turning back south after it goes north. as long as it lives its still the 2005 season and it seems 2005 doesnt want to end!
JeffMasters,
I have been wondering about a link between the extremely active tropics and drought in Ok, Tx, La, and Ar. Though I have not seen it mentioned anywhere. Of course the previous most active tropical year was 1933, which is also around the time of the "dustbowl" in the plains, and about the driest on record locally. Now this year where the Atlantic went all the way to Zeta we are in drought again in the "Southern Plains". Locally in NW Arkansas (Fayetteville) since last Feb 2005 there has been a deficit of around 18.5 inches (normal is ~42.5 in the same time frame), and 15.5 inch deficit for 2005, with some places getting just 40% of their "normal" raingall. By far the largest deficits in my memory.

Does anyone/Dr. Master's know of any research related to a possible link/correlation between a active tropical Atlantic, and drought in the central US.
Interesting rhought just occured to me.

What are the chances that the 2005 and 2006 hurricanes seasons overlapping?


I mean with Dr. Masters' prediction of a possible tropical storm later in the week, and Zeta's continued existence, it might not be that far fetched.

I think we are in for some wild seasons, so hang onto your hat!
what up look like to me we may see are frist hurricane of 2006 or will it be add on to 2005?
Does anyone have the real facts about the real wind speed of hurricane Wilma here in Ft. Laud. FL? I keep hearing from the so called experts that the storm was only a strong cat 1. Katrina hit us as a cat 1, but the damage done by Wilma was so much more severe. There are still roofs and trees laying all over the place.
The peak gust at Ft. Lauderdale in Wilma was 99 MPH.
The active 1930s hurricane seasons were within the Dust Bowl.
KRWZ...Zeta will continue to add to the 2005 season until it dissipates. It was named in 2005, so it's a part of the 2005 season, even in 2006.

It would be wild if Zeta hung around long enough for TS Alberto to form...that would be wild!
ArkWeather, there is a definet link as the jet stream this year is not in its normal place which has lead to draught in ARK, tex etc and floods here on the west coast. For how many years did the dust bowl last? And for anyone who knows, was the 1981-1982 an active hurricane season and were there droughts in the same regions we are seeing them today (texas, ark, ala etc) ?

Thanks
tornadoty: I heard an unofficial report of 111 mph in the Ft. Lauderdale area for Wilma. WOW!
Tornadoty, they said we had gusts of 92 mph with Katrina. I'm no expert, but I saw trees and power poles snap in half like tooth picks during Wilma. It was very intense. I heard Pompano Beach had a gust of 120 mph.
Trouper45~ the dust bowl drought lasted from 1931-fall of '39 the worst dust storm occured in 1935. Lots o good info here
Zeta getting torn up a bit from the west, but shes tapping into the south for her added convection.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
99 MPH was the official gust. Dry Tortugas officially recorded a wind gust of 134 MPH.
hurricanecity has her at 105mph~ that page has the recorded hurricanne history of Ft. Lauderdales past.
Remind me not to buy any Real Estate in the Dry Torugas. LOL I think they got pounded by about 7 hurricanes this year.
Hey everyone,

I was just reviewing the comments that I had missed from the previous blog and I thought that I needed to add clarification in regards to this statement. I realize where this person is deriving their thoughts, but I think it is most unfair if I didn't clarify the record when there's speculation on something I personally know isn't true.

Here is the statement.

"In reference back to the NHC, it used to be that they would allow forecasters to make predictions. They no longer do that due to liability reasons and allow the bulk of the forecasting to be done by computers. "It wasn't me it was the Computer." In addition due to significant amounts of error programmed into their computers to maintain their all encompassing "cone of error" they tend to stink at long range forecasting. Their models really don't start to get accurate until around 24 hours prior to landfall. At that point they tend to be pretty good. I just wish that they would come out and state their true mission and explain how their models truly work and don't work with regard to forecasting sites of landfalls. At least this site allows individuals to go on the line and, right or wrong, make predictions."


Here is my response based upon first hand and second hand knowledge.

First of all, the NHC doesn't use their computer modeling to pass blame for an inaccurate forecast. It is simply one of many tools they use that have actually helped them improve greatly in their track forecasts over the past couple of decades. Moreover, it is completely incorrect to state that the computer models has the NHC doing a poor job with their long range forecasts. It is quite the opposite. In reality, the overall track forecats by the NHC has improved so much since the inception of the computer models that they began using the five day forecasts during the past three seasons which would've been unheard of in the past.

You are right when you state that the models can be off due to bad information put into them...but that isn't done intentionally by the forecasters and an absolutely unfair judgement. It's frustrating for me who has first hand experience in the meteorological field to hear those who don't understand all the difficulties involved in forecasting making such outlandish statements. In addition, the cone of error isn't used to cover themselves for a so called missed forecast, but is used to warn those who may be in harms way due to the inherently impecise science of tropical meteorology. It is a complete misunderstanding to even contemplate that the forecasters are simply making their official forecats based upon the models alone. They are stil the ones making the forecasts based upon their own experience, skills, and all the tremendous resources now available to them like the computer models that weren't available twenty years ago. As a result, their short and long range forecats have improved temendously.

There is nothing wrong with any of us making our own forecasts but it is completely absurd to suggest ANYONE on these blogs including Dr. Masters could do a better job overall than those at the NHC. To think anyone on these blogs could or should be a substitute for them is a very scary thought and no doubt would lead to a major catastrophy with the inaccuracies that would no doubt materialize. Like I've mentioned before, anyone can outperform the NHC on an occasion, but that's because it is a very inexact science. However, you won't be able to find one person who can outperform them over the duration of a full season. If that were indeed the case, that person would be working at the NHC where the best in the business are there to do their best to save lives and property. It is important to understand that all forecasts are no more than the best EDUCATED GUESSES by any forecaster due the nature of the immense intricasies involved in this field of study.

It is much easier to critisize from an outward perspective especially reviewing a particular hurricane event from hindsight. I hope people on here will please consider the immense complexities involved in forecasting before making such outlandish statements which are not only inaccurate but are suggestive of intentional miscalculations on the part of those making such forcasts.

I want everyone to ask themselves, which tool do you usually hear being referred to by everyone on here making their forecasts regarding track predictions? That's right, their interpretation of the compute models. So, please tell me how that is any different than what the NHC is doing except they have more resources and far more experience using these tools to formulate their own forecasts.

Honestly, I can't believe I'm spending so much time defending the NHC when I am in agreement that they may indeed have suspicious reasons for downgrading Hurricane Katrina, but that is a whole different matter than their operational forecasts which truly have life and death consequences at that particular time. Basically, I feel it would be very inappropriate if I knew better and didn't respond to correct such misguided comments regardless of the fact I know that they are well intended.:)

Thanks,
Tony


I will be back later after I finish cooking dinner.:)
hurricanechaser mail for you
I don't believe for a moment that the NHC wouldn't work their hardest to make a good forecast, especially in reference to a storm like Katrina. I believe that they go about it wrong sometimes, and that is why I issue forecasts of my own - but I am shocked that anyone would even think that the NHC would put their own reputations over innocent lives.

Now the storm reports are a different matter, which I won't speak on.
Well said Colby...I have probably said too much already about my opinions regarding their post storm reports which I certainly have to question their judgement or methology involved. Specifically, I am very disappointed in how poor their rationale is in trying to support their conclusions of practically every aspect of the Katrina post storm report. They may very well have pure motives but that doesn't change the result which their report doesn't support their intensity estimates.
Hey Colby and everyne else who visits this soite after me,

I have to get my little girl ready for bed and do a quick workout at the gym. I hope each of you have a great night and good day tomorrow.:)

Your friend,
Tony

I just downloaded a spell check from Google...lol...which will allow me the time to proof read my long posts before I send them. Once again, please excuse the typos.:)
You have got to be kidding! Right????
Kidding about what, Gams? I'm lost........
The spell check
Tornadoty....I have the greatest amount of respect for you and your opinions, but no way did Fort Lauderdale only have a peak gust of 99 mph...like mcm stated we had a 92 mph not far from here with Katrina, and not even 1/50th of the damage Wilma caused.... if they want to stick with their 99 mph story, then we must have had about 10,000 tornadoes in Broward County (at least)....
Ok...I'm leaving for the late night Golds gym...thought I'd check in before I go. In regards to the spell check, it was a great idea suggested by both Colby and Palmetto. As you know already, I spend a lot of time with just about every post I make. The reason it would save me time is that it can proof read for typos more quickly than I could in a long post, because I wouldn't have to reread all I've already written. The need to correct the typos comes as a result that I type with only three fingers at most.:)

I hope you Gamma, Rich, and Palmetto all Have a wonderful night as well as everyone else.:)

Your friend,
Tony


Oh, Google's toolbar. I have that...just have to remember to use it, tho! lol
Hey Sherre,

It's nice seeing you on here again as well.:) Tony (tornadty) is simply giving you and others the peak registered wind gust for Ft. Lauderdale. That certainly doesn't mean it was the peak wind that actually occurred there. It is important to understand that winds rushing through a built up area like Broward County will funnel the winds causing increased velocity and resulting in greater damage than a less populated area.

Moreover, one specific anemometer may not and often times doesn't record the highest wind gusts for a particular region which is why you can see extreme damage on one block followed by very minimal damage the next block over. Most people unfamiliar with the strength of a straight-line 100 mph wind usually incorrectly attribute such sporadic extreme damages to tornadoes.

In short, I would suggest that some areas in Broward County most likely saw wind gusts at or above category three intensity, but not that category of sustained winds. To reiterate, winds above the 25th story level are generally a full category more intense as well.

I hope you all have a great night and I look forward to talking with each of you again soon.:)

Your friend,
Tony



I thought I would make one additional note regarding Hurricane Wilma at SW Florida Landfall. I was in Everglades City, Fl. when the storm was at peak intensity at landfall and I got wind gusts in the same category three range as Broward County most likely did, but the sustained category three winds remained South of any populated areas located in the swampy Everglades about 20 miles or so South of Everglades City.

In short, no populated areas actually saw the sustained category three winds, although many did see that category of wind gusts.

Thanks,
Tony


Hello,

Has anyone seen the latest on Zeta? Zeta has rewritten the books again. In regards to what I have read in earlier posts, I would pull my hair out about now if I were a forcaster. The NHC does a good job given the great complexities of the weather. This year many lives were saved. Think about the possible scenario if we did not have radar and computer models. Hats off to the NHC and the team here at Weather Underground.
I have read the 10 pm discussion. We may see a hurricane. In Jan?????
Hey haydn, nice to see you :)

The NHC have made many mistakes this year, but that is natural with the inexact science of meteorology. With all that they have to do, and with however many complaints they get for decisions they make (including mine on Katrina lol!!!) they have once again done a fantastic job this season. No one could do it better, honestly.
I agree. Did you enjoy the Christmas/ New Year holidays?
*raises hand*

When did I suggest the spell checker? LOL.

10PM very interesting, it's the next couple hours which will decide Zeta's future - stay tuned.
Atmosweather,

What do you think about Zeta?
hey atmosweather mail for you

hey hurricanechaser mail for you i would like it vary march if you can get back to me thank you
Colby,

How are you? Do you think we'll see a hurricane?
Yes thank you, I had a great holiday period. What about you?

THE GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. "IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW TIMES."

Lol, the NHC are just floored again. 2005-06 still wants to surprise the experts.
I had a good time seeing grandparents and other family in KY. My Favorite gift...the cast iron skillet of my great grandmother. Makes great cornbread.

Great food to add to soup while tracking storms.
Hey Colby, good to see you

With regards to Zeta, I strongly believe, as I have done for the past day or two, that Zeta will become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. At the moment, however, it is touch and go. Satellite presentation has improved a little over the last few hours after a slight deterioration on the western semicircle earlier this afternoon. With the diurnal maximum coming up there may be an early opportunity for strengthening tonight. I would not be surprised to wake up to Hurricane Zeta tomorrow morning.
I'd say its 50-50 right now.

www.theahc.webhop.net is where I issue my advisories - stay tuned there tomorrow morning. Too tired tonight >:(
What's diurnal maximum? As I'm writing this I have a window doing a search.
WTF? I think the QuickScat was actually down, not just the site. The previous data is from 12/29/05.
Yeah hadyn lol

I also want to point out that if Zeta can maintain an intensity of 60 mph or more for 2 more advisories, then 2005 will break the record for the highest cumulative ACE Index for a single season.
Hurricane Chaser, I stand corrected, I appreciate you insight, thankyou.
According to Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season_statistics) the 2005 ACE is now 243.2 which breaks the record of 242.9 from 1950. In any case the 2005 figure is preliminary so we won't know for sure until all the final reports are issued.
Incidentally, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Epsilon (www.nhc.noaa.gov/2005atlan.shtml?) calls it the "final named tropical cyclone of the 2005 hurricane season". Oops!
To totally change the subject, I need a meteorology lesson. I would think that a pressure of under 1000mb would be low & over 1000mb would be high but I see a lot of lows (even tropical storms) that are over 1000mb. Can someone clarify this?
thanks Hurricane (Tony)...sorry, don't mean to sound defensive but we took a beating...... thanks for your time and clarification...
atmosweather mail for you
That ACE stuff is a lot of math, but I comprehend it. I found a chart that puts the ACE at 225 through Nov 30. I guess that doesn't include that last days of Epsilon. 265 is the number to beat. The same chart lists this in 1951. Don't know what the ACE is at this hour.
Gippig, I just saw your comment. Here's the chart I used.

Link
Gippgig (sorry for the typo),
A tropical cyclone has to have a closed circulation. Some just don't make it to tropical storm strength. I guess that's why "named storms" was used.
I have seen weather charts with low's and high's above 1000mb. My guess is they don't use a definite line to define a low and high. They look for areas of high and low pressure. near one another. Today I looked and saw a low in the 970's. That pressure is one that a hurricanes have yet it was baroclinic.
Gippgig

That hasn't been updated to include the downward changes to Katrina's intensity. That means that Katrina had a lower ACE than originally calculated. I have done all the math and it still has 2 more advisories to go if I am not mistaken
Low and High pressure areas are all relative to the average sea-level pressure in the environment of the isobars in question
Usually depressions seem to have pressures of around 1004-1008 mb or so. But you can definitely have a perhaps 50-mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1000 mb.
atmosweather mail for you


look like ever time i post no you get back to me any one there ok may be one got back to me on one of my post any one there?
Atmosweather,

I think the ACE will be broken. Zeta is expected to stay around at 55 kts for 24 hours and be at 40 kts in 48. Surely this will break the record.
Oh yeah Haydn absolutely. There would have to be a 2400 mile long cold front with 17,000 kt wind shear values to come along and rip Zeta apart to stop the record from being broken!!!
well night all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
KRWZ,

random thought...How did you choose your name? If you chose this as a prediction of the 2005 season, bravo.
100. haydn
lol .... I'm falling out of my chair
this is my 3rd or 4th time say this


atmosweather mail for you
Sorry David. I have the slowest internet in the world and I am trying to do so many things at once including reading mail, answering comments and checking on satellites and other stuff. I am really really annoyed with it, but I will try and reply soon :)
ARGH!!! This season doesn't quit!!!
::pounding head on desk::
And there's a slim chance another might form? What's the next Greek letter???
Gipp- standard air pressure at sea level is 1013.25 millibars, or 29.92 in of mercury.

The highest recorded atmospheric pressure, 108.57 kPa (1085.7 mbar or 32.06 inches of mercury), occurred at Tonsontsengel, Mongolia, 19 December, 2001.

The lowest recorded non- tornadic atmospheric pressure, 86.996 kPa (869.96 mbar or 25.69 inHg), occurred in the Western Pacific during Typhoon Tip on 12 October, 1979.

source: Answers.com
105. haydn
We have to start with Alberto. We're in 2006 now.

haydn, actually, he chose the name adter the fact. earlier name had about a dozen 8's in it. None of us could ever remember how many... we just called him 888... ::G:: now he sounds like a radio or tv station!
For those keeping track, besides the Katrina downgrade there was a very small upgrade to Epsilon. I don't know about the other reports.
No more Greek letters, we have a whole 2006 name list to use before we get back to doing that again.
hey haydn some one out there gets back to me lol


i do not no i like KRWZ, i think it is coool and not to long and it is fun and how did i no Zeta was going to be out there and how did i no that we where going to see 3 cat 5 hurricane and when i said Wilma was going to be a cat 5 on that night i did not mean in 12 hours or what time that was wow on that one
There was no upgrade to Epsilon
hmm, Wikipedia is down.
112. haydn
Favorite new year chant


no more greek letters
no more greek letters
no more greek letters
no more greek letters.....
ForecasterColby~ How could the QuickSCAT have been down? Even though we couldn't get to the web site for days, near every discusion mentioned it~ including when the QuickSCAT missed the storm, as well as when the QuickSCAT was reading higher than what Zeta's intensity had been set at. Your right though ~the data from 12-30 til today is most unavailable:/
Yeah KRWZ, you said it would be from cat 2 to cat 5 in 12 hours. It actually took 6 hours lol!!! Great call on that one!!! We all thought you were crazy, but you got it right on the money!!!
115. MZT
Zeta certainly has its work cut out for it, with those strong westerlies everywhere. I think it may finally be succombing now (11:30 est) though. The high cirrus isn't spinning out like it was this afternoon, and new convection appears to be only sustained on the east side of the storm.
hey atmosweather yes when i said it was going to be a cat 5 i did not mean on that night i think the winds where more like 195mph at the time of the 882mb


you have one more e mail that i would like you to take a look at and get back to me
Yeah lol David. Thanks!!! I have emailed back on the second one. I am trying to reply to the first as well but my connection is just terrible.
Advisory #20 (5AM AST Dec. 4) on Epsilon (www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al292005.public.020.shtml?) downgraded Epsilon to a tropical storm (70mph winds). The final report kept it a 75mph hurricane.
atmosweather 6hours is that how fast a hurricane can do from a cat one to a cat 5 in this 6 hours has a hurricane ever done that befor
120. haydn
I would stay up, but I must work in the morning. Good night.
well atmosweather i am off to bed now and if you see hurricanechaser come back on tonight can you yet him no that he had mail and have him get back to me if you are sit on her iwhen he comes on her thank you
Have a great night David and haydn,

I am so sorry gippgig. I thought you meant the maximum intensity not an advisory intensity :( Sorry, you are indeed correct
hey atmosweather this one more post lol

if you see hurricanechaser come back on tonight can you yet him no that he had mail and have him get back to me if you are sit on her iwhen he comes on her thank you

and you have more mail lol and good night
Yeah David I will,

Have a great night :)
Yeah David I will,

Have a great night :)
Yeah David I will,

Have a great night :)
For heaven's sake I cannot believe this stupid computer. Sorry for the multiple posts. I really am getting annoyed now.
For heaven's sake I cannot believe this stupid computer. Sorry for the multiple posts. I really am getting annoyed now.
Arkweather, Ty & Trouper- I'd asked a question a couple of days ago, but got the book name wrong. Elmer Keaton wrote "The Time It Never Rained" about the multi-year drought in Texas during the 1950s. This matches the season of December-January Hurricane Alice in 1954.

Someone asked about the 1980s, we had Allen in 1980, I think. It was huge but fizzled. Then Alicia hit Houston in '83 but it form from a nontropical low off the Gulf Coast. 83 was also the coldest December ever recorded in TX, so no match with right now. I don't recall the early 80s as tropically busy in the Gulf.

How do the 1930s compare to the 1950s, and to right now?
Don't know what the heck happened to Zeta the past few hours - convection's falling apart. It better get its act together soon.
* .... if it would want to get to hurricane status. (That would be bad for the poor rowers....)
It's odd that Zeta has weakened since entering the region of lower wind shear. Is it possible that the wind shear drives the convection in these weird systems sort of like a conveyer belt?
gippig, a good idea considerning the madness of epsilon, gamma and now zeta. However vertical windsheer as I see it has no positive effect on hurricanes, only negative to their strucure. However, according to these hurricanes that have fire up in the middle of Winter, I wouldnt doubt it hahaha.
Thank you dallas for following up on my question. what you said directly clarifies to what I was asking. tropical formaton coriliating to a different time period, therefore clarifying the AMO cycle. thank you.

trouper415
Hey Colby, Mattinmiami, Sherre (Billsfan), Rich, David, and everyone else.:)

I was just checking back in before I called it a night.

Colby,

I was apologizing for my usual typos in one of my long posts back when Mousey started her blogs and you said, "spell check was my friend".LOl:) On two other occasions Palmetto suggested I download one from Google as well:)

Mattinmiami,

I didn't mean to identify the author of the comments I was responding to and that says a lot about you as a person to leave the comment you did. I completely understood your rationale for the thoughts.:)

Sherre,

I completely understand you being a bit defensive as I am honestly regarding the Katrina downgrade, you know how bad it was from personal experience. It is safe to say you didn't get category one conditions as I've heard it erroneously suggested in my humble opinion.:)

David,

I am sorry I haven't responded soon enough to your email on here. I tend to forget to look there. I don't have any CNN Wilma footage. I will simply gather as much footage from the news media that I did get for Dennis, Katrina, Charley from 2004, and Wilma and send it to you as soon as I am done. I hope to complete it in a week or so. I appreciate your patience, I've just been so busy with work lately.:)

Rich,

Thanks for offering to let me know I have mail from David for him. Once again, excellent posts as usual and I am looking forward to the continuation of your Katrina blog. I know it's very time consuming especially when we still have a named storm to track.:)

I hope each of you and everyone else has a great night.:)

Your friend,
Tony


I can't believe Zeta is still at 55kt. It looks horrible in IR. On the other hand, the last time it looked this bad it came back stronger than it was before. Who knows?
Zeta. Zeta. Zeta. What secrets do you hold about scrappy winter storms in wind and tepid water?
go horns. zeta go away.
This is bizzare...Zeta finally gets its good enviornment, and falls apart?
I've issued a statement, would someone explain to me what the NHC's up to with the 50kt?

Tropical Storm Zeta
Amateur Hurricane Center
www.theahc.webhop.net
Statement - 6:00AM EST January 4, 2006

Satellite imagery that Zeta has inexplicably fallen apart overnight. The latest QuickScat passed directly over the cyclone, and found not a single vector of 50kt(60mph) or more, and only one uncontaminated vector over 35kt(40mph). The cloud pattern is now extremely poor, though it has changed little over the past few hours. This statement is to update initial and forecast intensities.

Initial: 40kt(45mph)
12 Hour: 40kt(45mph)
24 Hour: 40kt(45mph)
48 Hour: 30kt(35mph)
72 Hour: Dissipated
Maybe it is a freak new breed of storm that actually feeds on shear, ha.
I'm seriously beginning to wonder if that is indeed what is happening here. There is no explanation whatsoever except...what are the 200mb temps?
Never mind, I see it. I've issued a new advisory Link
Still gonna break the ACE record, though...
really a hurricane?
"AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT [OF]
THINGS TO SAY."

I find that to be rather humorous :)
THE OTHER BIG RECORD IS BROKEN!!!!!!

ACE 244 1950 243 !!!!!!!!
Hey guys new here. Was just wondering - we've all heard the reports of slight reduction in Gulf Stream transport, and it alleged future impacts on European weather. Any thoughts on the impact of retaining those warm surface waters in the tropics and subtropics in the western portion of the Atlantic Basin? Though we're probably talking small diffferences in volume, could a slowdown in the Gulf Stream minimize warmwater export, keeping temperatures in the south Atlantic warmer later in the year, possibly lengthening the storm season?
149. MZT
This is one of the driest looking tropical storms I've ever seen. It's basically a windswirl with little rain.
*thinks*

If the Gulf Stream shut down, it should lower temps in the far open atlantic and raise them in the gulf and caribbean.
Yep, Zeta has hang on to break the ACE Index record. 2005 has broken another record. However, for no reason at all, Zeta is being destroyed this morning. I really have no explanation for the substantial deteoration, as there is almost no deep convection left. I expected after last night's brief strengthening trend to wake up to Hurricane Zeta, but instead find a weak tropical storm that will dissipate within 36-48 hrs.
ForecasterColby, thanks for the thoughts. I agree that the open Atlantic should cool, but shouldn't the equator and surrounding waters stay plenty warm, allowing passage of tropical waves from Africa to theoretically continue unhindered? I know this is more of a meteorological bulletin board, but I like to play climatological devil's advocate every now and then ;). And I'm an ecologist by training!
Zeta wanted to break the ACE record. Now that it's done it it's giving up.

Seriously, what about that chart giving the ACE record as 265 in 1950? What is the correct record?
244 ACE...yet another record bites the dust in the Hurricane Season of 2005...

Alberto...where are you???