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Hurricane Watch for Hawaii’s Big Island; TDs 8, 9 May Become Tropical Storms

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 10:33 PM GMT on August 29, 2016

In a dual scenario unprecedented in hurricane recordkeeping, two major hurricanes are heading toward Hawaii, and both could affect the island with high surf, torrential rain, and potential high winds over the next week. Hurricane Madeline is the closer of the two, located about 630 miles east of Hilo, HI, as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Now moving west-northwest at 10 mph, Madeline has been rapidly intensifying, growing from tropical storm to Category 3 strength in just 24 hours. As of 5 pm EDT, Madeline’s top sustained winds were at 115 mph. CPHC is projecting Madeline to move on a leftward-arcing path that would take it just south of the Big Island as a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday night (see Figure 1 below). A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all of the Big Island (Hawaii County). Update (11:30 pm EDT Monday]: Madeline's top sustained winds had increased to 125 mph as of the 11 pm EDT CPHC advisory.


Figure 1. Tracking map for Hurricane Madeline as of 5:00 pm EDT (11:00 am HST) Monday.

Madeline could become the first hurricane on record in the Big Island
At its closest, the center of Madeline is projected to be roughly 100 miles south of the Big Island. Given that this is more than two days out, we cannot yet entirely rule out the possibility that Madeline will stay far enough north to produce the first-ever hurricane strike on the Big Island in records going back to 1949. The 12Z Monday HWRF and GFDL model runs bring Madeline into the Big Island at hurricane strength, while the European and GFS models keep Madeline south of the island. Even if the latter occurs, very strong northeast winds rotating around the hurricane could produce torrential rains, flooding, and huge surf on the east side of the island. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend out up to 115 miles from Madeline, and that envelope may expand by Wednesday as the hurricane matures.


Figure 2. Resembling the eyes of some ghostly sea creature, Hurricanes Madeline (left) and Lester (right) were charging westward toward Hawaii (far left) at 1800Z (2:00 pm EDT) Monday, August 29, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

About 1000 miles east of Madeline, Hurricane Lester remains impressive, now packing minimal Category 4 winds of 130 mph as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from NHC. As its shield of thunderstorms grows larger, Lester is taking on more of the characteristics of an annular hurricane--the type that features a large eye and a single broad ring around that eye, as opposed to spiral bands. Annular hurricanes tend to be slow to weaken, which raises the odds of Lester remaining strong enough to affect Hawaii as a hurricane. NHC predicts that Lester will be roughly 150 miles northeast of Hilo on Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane, on a northwestward-angling track that could keep the storm just north of the islands. There is enough error in five-day tracks to put most of the Big Island within NHC’s “cone of uncertainty” for Saturday, and a direct strike from Lester on one or more islands cannot yet be ruled out.

One factor that could influence both tracks is the Fujiwhara effect, in which hurricanes within about 800 miles of each other begin to rotate around a center of gravity in between them. Lester is slowly catching up to Madeline as it moves west at 14 mph, vs. Madeline’s 10 mph motion. If the two hurricanes get close enough, the Fujiwhara effect will tend to angle Madeline’s path toward the south and Lester’s toward the north--in both cases, exactly what you would want to reduce the chance of a direct hit on Hawaii. Such an outcome is by no means guaranteed, though. Given Hawaii’s limited experience with tropical cyclones (see this morning’s post for more details), both of these systems need to be taken very seriously.

An unprecedented deployment of hurricane hunter resources to Hawaii kicked off on Monday afternoon, when three Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft were sent to the islands. Beginning on Tuesday afternoon, these aircraft will provide regular fixes every 12 hours on Madeline, and will also begin flying into Lester when it draws closer to Hawaii.


Figure 3. Tracking map for Hurricane Lester as of 5:00 pm EDT (11:00 am HST) Monday.

TD 9 struggling with dry air and wind shear
Tropical Depression Nine continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, and has not strengthened into a tropical storm yet, confirmed a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft on Monday afternoon. TD 8 was headed to the west-northwest at 5 mph on a track just north of western tip of Cuba. The storm’s top winds remained near 35 mph, with a central pressure holding steady at 1007 mb.


Figure 4. MODIS visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Nine in the Florida Straits on Monday afternoon, August 29, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite images on Monday afternoon showed a slow increase in the intensity and areal coverage of TD 9’s heavy thunderstorms, though late in the day the circulation center became exposed to view—the telltale sign of a tropical cyclone struggling with high wind shear. Long-range Key West radar showed heavy rain over western Cuba, where up to 12” of rainfall had likely fallen, and a few scattered rain showers over the Florida Keys, but little in the way of low-level spiral bands. The main factor keeping TD 9 from developing was wind shear that was a moderate 10 - 15 knots. TD 9 was also struggling with dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 9’s center remained favorable for development, though, near 30  - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F).

Track forecast for TD 9: a Florida Gulf Coast landfall, followed by a run up the Southeast coast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) Monday runs of our top models continue to bring TD 9 to a landfall on the Florida coast north of Tampa on Thursday. There is significant spread in the timing of TD 9’s landfall in Florida, with the HWRF model predicting a 1 am strike, European model an 11 am strike, and the GFS model an 8 pm strike. In their 5 pm EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 9 along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 43%, 36%, and 36%, respectively, for Cedar Key, Tampa, and Apalachicola, Florida. Tropical storm-force winds may also occur on the east coast of Florida near where the storm exits the coast after crossing the state: NHC gave odds of tropical storm-force winds of 25% or higher to Orlando, The Villages, Daytona Beach, Gainesville and Jacksonville in Florida, and to Kings Bay in Georgia. The latest run of the European model showed TD 9 scooting along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina early Friday morning, and it is possible the storm could spread sustained winds near 40 mph to the coast there.

One potential monkey wrench in the track forecast: TD 9 could undergo a relocation of its center to point more than 50 miles south of its current center, so that it is closer to the heaviest thunderstorms near the western tip of Cuba. If this occurs, a southward shift in the predicted track of TD 9 may be required.


Figure 5. The 12Z (8 am EDT) Monday run of the HWRF model predicted that TD 9 would have top winds of 50 mph at landfall, and would bring copious rains of 8 - 16” along its track across Florida. The HWRF rainfall amounts are likely too high, as the official NHC forecast at 5 pm EDT Monday called for 3 - 7” of rain along TD 9’s track, with isolated amounts of up to 10” along the coast near its landfall location. Image credit: NOAA/EMC.

Intensity forecast for TD 9 becoming clearer
Once TD 9 pulls away from Cuba, a round of steady intensification is likely, with the system reaching tropical storm strength by Tuesday morning. The SHIPS model on Monday afternoon predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear staying a moderate 10 - 15 knots Monday afternoon through Wednesday. SSTs will be a very warm 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65 - 70%. There is a significant amount of dry air at middle and upper levels of the atmosphere that may interfere with development, though. Our three best intensity models—the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models—were in reasonable agreement with their latest runs available on Monday afternoon, with landfall intensities for TD 9 ranging from 50 - 75 mph. NHC is going with a forecast of a 65 mph tropical storm at landfall, noting that increasing wind shear in the final day before landfall may stop the intensification process. TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, as suggested by the DSHIPS intensity model, and residents along the Gulf Coast of Florida should anticipate this possibility. This portion of the coast is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf water offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast. A worst-case Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide can cause a storm surge that will inundate the Florida Gulf Coast north of Tampa to a depth to 9 - 10 feet, as seen in SLOSH model imagery available in WU’s storm surge pages.

Tropical Storm Warning for the Outer Banks of North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is up for the Outer Banks of North Carolina as Tropical Depression Eight chugs northwest at 6 mph towards the state. TD 8 has not strengthened into a tropical storm yet, confirmed an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft on Monday afternoon, as the plane found top winds in the storm near 35 mph, with a central pressure holding steady at 1011 mb.


Figure 6. Radar image of TD 8 from the long-range Morehead City, North Carolina radar at 4:39 pm EDT August 29, 2016. TD 8 was a spirally-looking thingy.

Satellite images and long-range Morehead City, North Carolina radar on Monday afternoon showed TD 8 had a vigorous circulation and a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms. Development was being slowed to very dry air (45 - 50% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere), combined with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near TD 8’s center remained favorable for development, though, near 29°C (84°F).

Forecast for TD 8: grazing the Outer Banks of North Carolina
The computer models are in excellent agreement that TD 8 will continue on its current northwest track through Tuesday morning, then make a sharp turn to the north and northeast on Tuesday afternoon after getting caught in the steering flow of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. These steering currents should bring the center of TD 8 very close to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A storm surge of 1 - 2 feet can be expected along the Outer Banks, along with heavy rains of 1 - 3 inches. In their 5 pm EDT Monday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from TD 8 were 42% for  Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Dry air and moderate wind shear will continue to affect TD 8 through Wednesday, and it is unlikely this storm will be stronger than a 50 mph tropical storm at the time of its closest approach to the coast on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. As TD 8 accelerates away from the coast on Wednesday and Thursday, more significant strengthening may occur.

A new tropical wave worth watching is leaving the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin was emerging from the coast of Africa on Monday afternoon, will move through the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and potentially develop into a tropical depression later in the week as it heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) Monday runs of two our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, continue to agree that this wave will develop into a tropical depression late in the week. The UKMET model dropped development in its 12Z Monday run after supporting development in its previous few runs. The wave should remain on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path through the week, arriving near or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday evening. In their 2 pm EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 50%, respectively.

Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has an excellent update on the tropics in his Monday afternoon post, TD 9 Getting Better Organized as TD 8 Heads for NC Coast. See our morning post for more on the other significant storm of the hour, Hurricane Gaston, which is spinning harmlessly in the middle of the North Atlantic.

We’ll be back with a new post late Tuesday morning.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 994. daddyjames:



if you are in the Antilles would disagree. Five days out and a storm could potentially be impacting you. That one is going to be here before ol' slo' poke 99L/TD09 exits to stage right.


Very possible...And slowpoke 99 may just save our ...
Very stormy morning here on the Savannah barrier islands. Rain is coming in sheets, frequent lightning, gusty winds. Looking at the radar this could be awhile, the ULL is sitting right on top of us and interacting with TD08 to push a lot of moisture and energy onshore.

Will probably see an upgrade at 11am. Numbers increasing. TD 9.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2016 Time : 131500 UTC
Lat : 23:56:08 N Lon : 87:03:17 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1000.4mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -63.4C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees
Quoting 997. pipelines:

09L makes me nervous, this is the type of system that could have a high casualty rate. Major hurricanes heading toward the coast with a number of days advance notice don't worry me, people have cars. But a storm that's forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm, goes into RI 24 hours before landfall and jumps from a TS to a major, now that scares me. We've seen it happen countless times, storms that were supposed to slowly intensify suddenly go into RI with no warning. Our models are pretty dang good with track forecasts, they're horrible (as we've seen here) at cyclogenesis and intensity. I could not imagine going to bed with a tropical storm heading toward me, waking up expecting a tropical storm to still be there but to instead have a Cat 2 hurricane rapidly intensifying with just 12 hours before landfall......


There is always a probability that a storm potentially could RI - however the indications at this time are that will not be likely with this storm. Of course, now having said that . . .
Did 08L merge with the ULL.
1006. ProPoly
Quoting 985. FunnelVortex:

Really getting its act together.




That's gotta be a tropical storm now. I'll be surprised if there isn't an upgrade at 11.
1007. barbamz
Quoting 1000. IDTH:





Nice catch! [Edit: not so - see below. Pic on Twitter deleted]
hmmmmm. Who knows might get a bit backed up by that high.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
1009. WxLogic
So far the LLC hasn't ejected... but in a way can't put my finger on it. I feels there's definitely something more happening underneath there.
Quoting 1005. washingtonian115:

Did 08L merge with the ULL.


No, it is north of it trying to fight off the shearing effect from the ULL.
1011. CBJeff
Quoting 985. FunnelVortex:

Really getting its act together.




It sure looks like there could be a three-digit pressure in there somewhere. I'll guess we'll find out when the next aircraft arrives, but considering the 99L/TD9 backstory, nothing will surprise me anymore.
Whoa...

1013. Patrap
AMSU Microwave 89 GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

1014. IDTH
Quoting 984. Envoirment:


Yeah I noted that Gaston could hit the Azores a few days ago. The models started hinting at it.
Quoting 960. CybrTeddy:



I wouldn't worry too much about 92L. As we saw with 99L (now 09L) everything about that will change. Personally, my bet is on another weak, struggling low for the next week.
'

You're probably right. 99L gave me such a headache that I just gave up even trying to figure out what was happening. 92L will struggle with dry air, no doubt, as its still pretty heavy over the ATL. If it does develop, might be closer to the U.S (if it makes it that far).
I've never heard of a weak disorganized system being turned NE from a trough, much less a trough that I can't see coming down. But whatever, not worried about it if the experts know where it's going.
Quoting 1009. WxLogic:

So far the LLC hasn't ejected... but in a way can't put my finger on it. I feels there's definitely something more happening underneath there.


So look at this COD Sat

To my amateur eyes, it looks like a dying vort max at around 25N 87W? And if you look at the low level clouds at 23N 89W it looks like they are moving south around the new LLC? Would love to hear other peoples thoughts on that.
1018. Patrap
1019. ProPoly
Quoting 1000. IDTH:





Core looks surprisingly good as well. Big system as well, it really is trying to use all of that sprawling size.
Quoting 1000. IDTH:





That's interesting because it says Aug. 30th but that is an old location for the low center. The low is a good distance to the west from that location now.
Less dry air in the Western Gulf, as evidenced by the WV loops......buts its still a mess out there.
Quoting 1007. barbamz:



Nice catch!


Much better organized than yesterday.

EDIT: Old pass.
1023. Patrap





1024. wpb
global hawk taking over for gulfstream jet thats out of action.
been making drops in box all over central and east gulf of mexico and over td 9
started at 2am and ongoing. 24 hour mission
Quoting 1007. barbamz:



Nice catch!

I am confused by that picture. The NHC has the center at 86W that picture shows a center close to 84.5 west. Interesting
Quoting 1022. CybrTeddy:



Much better organized than yesterday.


Thats an old one, the LLC isn't all the way back there.
Quoting 1007. barbamz:



Nice catch!


Ascat seems a bit off in location, it shows the coc around 23 north and 84 west.
Quoting 1023. Patrap:









You may wanna keep an eye out Pat on this, It's not following protocol
1029. IDTH
Dry air is definitely not going to hinder TD 9 as much as people think, especially with the huge moisture filed associated with TD 9.
Quoting 1009. WxLogic:

So far the LLC hasn't ejected... but in a way can't put my finger on it. I feels there's definitely something more happening underneath there.


I don't think we'll see an LLC ejected. Winds will just sort of shift to around a new area. IF that is what is happening. That ASCAT is also off. Says something about a data buffer from 22hrs ago? It can't be current because the LLC can't be around 84W...at least I don't think.
Quoting 1025. AtlanticP:


I am confused by that picture. The NHC has the center at 86W that picture shows a center close to 84.5 west. Interesting


Yeah, I said the same thing, That's a little old, even though it says Aug. 30th
1032. barbamz
Quoting 1025. AtlanticP:


I am confused by that picture. The NHC has the center at 86W that picture shows a center close to 84.5 west. Interesting

I'm a bit confused, too. Something doesn't match.
1033. IDTH
Probably the biggest reason for the huge moisture field with TD 9

So much deep convection over 09L right now, the CoC is hard to point out. It is squarely under the deep convection though. My guess would be 24N 87.1W. Should be a TS at 11, IMO. And probably looking at a central pressure right at around 1000mb.

1035. WxLogic
Quoting 1000. IDTH:





Unfortunately that ASCAT is in correct. The current ASCAT pass is currently on the Western Pacific... should be a couple more ours before we get a pass on the ATL side.
1036. IDTH
Quoting 1025. AtlanticP:


I am confused by that picture. The NHC has the center at 86W that picture shows a center close to 84.5 west. Interesting

I just posted it here because Ryan Maue posted it on his twitter.

Seems like we were all fooled


nhc wouldnt be dropping their toys all over the gulf if they were 100% sure of their forecast.
1038. IDTH
Quoting 1027. ElConando:



Ascat seems a bit off in location, it shows the coc around 23 north and 84 west.

Yeah I think it's off too. Maue screwed up. We're all human
1039. Patrap
Quoting 1028. RitaEvac:



You may wanna keep an eye out Pat on this, It's not following protocol


That and a lack of watches,tell me they not sold on track yet too.

🌞 🌎 🌉 🎑
1040. Patrap
Can we all not post the 11am stuff so the blog gets 15 minutes behind.
Looks like shear is still pretty strong, clouds are getting blown off the llc when trying to reach it.
1043. Grothar
While 09L is looking better than it ever has, it still does not appear to be vertically stacked. It is moving into a very favorable environment, and should be a TS later today. It could well be intensifying all the way until landfall and possibly aided by the ULL to its north assisting with outflow which sometimes can either hinder or assist a system.

The trough currently parked over the NE US should be well placed to draw 09L into the weakness to the NE of FL. However, (I never use the phrase "that being said"), it remains to be seen how far the trough moves south. I believe 09L will still be in a favorable position to intensify to at least a Cat 1.

Seeing signs on satellite center might become exposed again on TD 09
Quoting 1029. IDTH:

Dry air is definitely not going to hinder TD 9 as much as people think, especially with the huge moisture filed associated with TD 9.


Dunno. Plenty of dry air in WV imagery west of 88W and up near 26N. The east and south sides are definitely loaded with moisture though.
1046. WxLogic
Quoting 1030. StormJunkie:



I don't think we'll see an LLC ejected. Winds will just sort of shift to around a new area. IF that is what is happening. That ASCAT is also off. Says something about a data buffer from 22hrs ago? It can't be current because the LLC can't be around 84W...at least I don't think.


I agree on the LLC observation, but I will still hold some doubts until this evening. :)

Yeah, the ASCAT is old... hasn't gotten quite there yet.
Quoting 1028. RitaEvac:



You may wanna keep an eye out Pat on this, It's not following protocol


I totally agree.
Quoting 1039. Patrap:



That and a lack of watches,tell me they not sold on track yet too.

🌞 🌎 🌉 🎑


Still two days from landfall. Chances are that watches/warnings will be posted at 11.
Windsat from 2 hrs ago. Seems to show center around 24N, but may be consolidating a hair further to the S where the band is.

1051. GatorWX
Quoting 962. daddyjames:



And that is for which one?


That lat and lon given would indicate 09L. ;p

Morning James and everyone else.
Quoting 1039. Patrap:



That and a lack of watches,tell me they not sold on track yet too.

🌞 🌎 🌉 🎑


They may go up at 11AM, it'll be within 48 hours to presumed landfall by then.
1053. K8eCane
Quoting 1037. islander101010:

nhc wouldnt be dropping their toys all over the gulf if they were 100% sure of their forecast.


Amen...Now I have been around a long time and something strange is going on off the se coast with 08?.....I dont think its exactly following protocol but thats only based on personal experience. Im no met. I think 08 has stalled or died and broken down into a huge thunderstorm complex or SOMETHING and hasnt exactly followed protocol. AND IMO whatever it is doing could possibly affect what happens with 09. But again, Im no met, just a lifelong weather geek.
Just a question.
Was TD9 suppose to already have a Northward movement by now.
Seems to really like that westward movement.
Wont be long and it will be in the South Central Gulf.
1056. IDTH
Quoting 1045. ecflweatherfan:



Dunno. Plenty of dry air in WV imagery west of 88W and up near 26N. The east and south sides are definitely loaded with moisture though.

Sure, but shear played the role in keeping one side so devoid. The dry air is barely a hindrance when you have as huge of a moisture field and have the MJO now on your side.

Also of note, both the CMC and GFS keep upward motion around like the 12th of September.
1057. Grothar
Gaston

11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 30
Location: 32.2°N 52.9°W
Moving: ENE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph
Quoting 1043. Grothar:

While 09L is looking better than it ever has, it still does not appear to be vertically stacked. It is moving into a very favorable environment, and should be a TS later today. It could well be intensifying all the way until landfall and possibly aided by the ULL to its north assisting with outflow which sometimes can either hinder or assist a system.

The trough currently parked over the NE US should be well placed to draw 09L into the weakness to the NE of FL. However, (I never use the phrase "that being said"), it remains to be seen how far the trough moves south. I believe 09L will still be in a favorable position to intensify to at least a Cat 1.




I agree the ULL is the big player in aiding or slowing intensification. Do you think it has a shot at Cat 1 status before Florida or only while in West Atlantic?
1060. Patrap
Quoting 1030. StormJunkie:



I don't think we'll see an LLC ejected. Winds will just sort of shift to around a new area. IF that is what is happening. That ASCAT is also off. Says something about a data buffer from 22hrs ago? It can't be current because the LLC can't be around 84W...at least I don't think.


LLC looks very elongated again, on nullschool from 13:00 UTC, so probs something to do with that? It also is looking a bit off from mid-levels yet again, even though, might sort itself out, yet again, with the current blow up and get it all wrapped round the center properly, maybe. TD8 actually looking slightly better at the mo, if only because the LLC isn't elongated. Who said it was going to Cancun? Cookies for you if it does LOL
I live in Sarasota. Watching TD9, I can't help but think of Hurricane Charley that went from a Cat.2 to a Cat.4 within 6 hours as it hit the warm shallow waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Will that happen to TD9?
TD9 is not going to head to the Central GOM guys, the weakness will pull it NE towards the Big Bend.
Quoting 1051. GatorWX:



That lat and lon given would indicate 09L. ;p

Morning James and everyone else.


Yo gator - what's up!
Anyone else having issues with viewing the Nexrad radar on Wunderground? It's showing nothing but broken frames in Chrome, and on Firefox and IE when I bring up the current loop, it brings up loops from yesterday!
Quoting 1060. Patrap:




In the words of Emeril...Bamm!
1067. jdj32
I live in Gulf Breeze, Florida and we are entering a drought. It hasn't rained since the 16th. It looks like TD-9 is going to miss us to the right. We need rain. Everything is brown.
Quoting 1062. SRQstormwatcher:

I live in Sarasota. Watching TD9, I can't help but think of Hurricane Charley that went from a Cat.2 to a Cat.4 within 6 hours as it hit the warm shallow waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Will that happen to TD9?


All indications point to: no. But there always is a probability that it can possibly strengthen beyond what is being forecated (as small as that probability is).
Quoting 1065. SavannahStorm:

Anyone else having issues with viewing the Nexrad radar on Wunderground? It's showing nothing but broken frames in Chrome, and on Firefox and IE when I bring up the current loop, it brings up loops from yesterday!

Yes I am..
1070. BayFog

Madeline, upgraded to Cat 4, nearing Hawaii.
1071. Grothar
Calling WKC!

In a dual scenario unprecedented in hurricane recordkeeping, two major hurricanes are heading toward Hawaii, and both could affect the island with high surf, torrential rain, and potential high winds over the next week.

Earlier this year I began stating that we are in an 'unprecedented' time regarding the weather. Welcome to the 'Climate Jungle' people, hope you brought your man-pants.
If this isn't a TS next update then someone at the NHC didn't do something right.



1074. BayFog

Lester, downgraded to a Cat 3, but still looking dangerous, and still headed to the Islands behind Madeline.
1075. WxLogic
Just a little perspective on where ASCAT is currently running on:

1076. K8eCane
Quoting 1071. Grothar:

Calling WKC!




Dont forget Carriboy!
Quoting 971. daddyjames:



Hard to distinguish lighting from the flash of transformers blowing in a cat4 storm.


Watch the Andrew video I posted a little ways down.
1079. ProPoly
Quoting 1071. Grothar:

Calling WKC!




That looks like "fun"...
1080. Patrap
Best looking image yet of the system inside the Dvorak pickle.


2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Click image for loop


Quoting 1071. Grothar:

Calling WKC!




Should be ringing up CaribBoy.
1082. Patrap
Quoting 1062. SRQstormwatcher:

I live in Sarasota. Watching TD9, I can't help but think of Hurricane Charley that went from a Cat.2 to a Cat.4 within 6 hours as it hit the warm shallow waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Will that happen to TD9?



Charley was a small circ...and n a very different synoptic situation.

TD 9 is a much larger system.

1083. Grothar
Quoting 1059. WeatherkidJoe2323:



I agree the ULL is the big player in aiding or slowing intensification. Do you think it has a shot at Cat 1 status before Florida or only while in West Atlantic?


At this point, I would say it has a very good chance of reaching CAT 1 just before landfall. It will still be entraining some dry air, and shear, while lessening a little today, might increase a little as it approaches it ULL to its north. As I previously wrote, the trough might give it a little assistance in intensification since it should be in an area of very low wind shear as well.
TD9 not upgraded at 11 a.m. However, they are probably waiting for recon to get in there and see what is going on.
Quoting 1043. Grothar:
While 09L is looking better than it ever has, it still does not appear to be vertically stacked. It is moving into a very favorable environment, and should be a TS later today. It could well be intensifying all the way until landfall and possibly aided by the ULL to its north assisting with outflow which sometimes can either hinder or assist a system.

The trough currently parked over the NE US should be well placed to draw 09L into the weakness to the NE of FL. However, (I never use the phrase "that being said"), it remains to be seen how far the trough moves south. I believe 09L will still be in a favorable position to intensify to at least a Cat 1.



On water vapor of the US that trough seems to be riding over the High pressure ridge planted over the SE and my question is will it drop far enough to the West to be able to pick up 09, time will tell I guess. The NHC sure seems to think it will but the models don't seem to be convinced.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 87.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in central and northern Florida, and southeastern Georgia
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 87.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by
a turn toward the north-northwest tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will continue to move slowly away from
1087. Grothar
Quoting 1041. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can we all not post the 11am stuff so the blog gets 15 minutes behind.


You mean we can't post the 45 page reports anymore? Or post the the NHC update image 15 times? What fun is that?
Quoting 1083. Grothar:



At this point, I would say it has a very good chance of reaching CAT 1 just before landfall. It will still be entraining some dry air, and shear, while lessening a little today, might increase a little as it approaches it ULL to its north. As I previously wrote, the trough might give it a little assistance in intensification since it should be in an area of very low wind shear as well.


The trough seems to be helping it after it crosses Florida too if the models have it right (lol)
1089. GatorWX
Quoting 1064. daddyjames:



Yo gator - what's up!


Nothing's ever up Gator! Lol.

Oh, just checking in. Should be a fun few days of weather here and it appears 09 strengthened some. Does still have that decoupled, sloppy look though. We'll see what happens.

I see hwrf finally backed off and now depicts a more reasonable scenario. Haven't looked at much else yet. Today's my "Monday" and getting a late start.
Quoting 1063. reedzone:

TD9 is not going to head to the Central GOM guys, the weakness will pull it NE towards the Big Bend.


Well it sure is trekking that way.
TD9 pressure went up

10:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 30
Location: 24.0°N 87.2°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
1092. Patrap
I sent a wu mail note to Dr. Masters on the wu radar issue and to his outtie mail inbox.

We gonna need them downstream in time.
wonder when they come will we be on their menu. http://observer.com/2016/08/not-a-drill-seti-is-in vestigating-a-possible-extraterrestrial-signal-fro m-deep-space/
1094. Grothar
Quoting 1079. ProPoly:



That looks like "fun"...


Just wait!
Quoting 1081. daddyjames:



Should be ringing up CaribBoy.

Won't be long before he shows up. He must be living on a desert island by now! Every season whining about no rain.
1096. Grothar
Quoting 1088. win1gamegiantsplease:



The trough seems to be helping it after it crosses Florida too if the models have it right (lol)


Yes, it certainly does. Some long range models bring it up to a possible Cat 2 in the Atlantic.
Quoting 1090. cat6band:



Well it sure is trekking that way.

As forecasted
1098. GatorWX
Quoting 1087. Grothar:



You mean we can't post the 45 page reports anymore? Or post the the NHC update image 15 times? What fun is that?


I thought it was ironic he was the first to post an 1100 advisory, on Gaston. Ha
Wait, they are saying it's still a TD and that the pressure went up?

This has got to be a fluke. I'm sure when Recon goes out today they will find a strengthening TS.
Quoting 1090. cat6band:



Well it sure is trekking that way.


I wonder which situation would bring the SE coast the worst weather as it zips past us, TD9 turning soon or it staying W for a little longer than forecast?
Quoting 1053. K8eCane:



Amen...Now I have been around a long time and something strange is going on off the se coast with 08?.....I dont think its exactly following protocol but thats only based on personal experience. Im no met. I think 08 has stalled or died and broken down into a huge thunderstorm complex or SOMETHING and hasnt exactly followed protocol. But what do I know. AND IMO whatever it is doing could possibly affect what happens with 09. But again, Imno met, just a lifelong weather geek.


I agree with your observations. The past several days 08 has been creating upper level shear to keep 09 from ever stacking even at the slow speed of 09. You can see that on water vapor loop and now it looks for the first time that 09 is not hindered. The ULL over the Bahamas has relaxed some and looks like 08 will start to head north. Something just doesn't feel right but recon should answer our questions soon.
Looks like the NHC shifted the cone a small about eastward, makes sense with the lower latitude.
Quoting 1087. Grothar:



You mean we can't post the 45 page reports anymore? Or post the the NHC update image 15 times? What fun is that?


Yeah Va, you party pooper! ;)
Quoting 1034. ecflweatherfan:

So much deep convection over 09L right now, the CoC is hard to point out. It is squarely under the deep convection though. My guess would be 24N 87.1W. Should be a TS at 11, IMO. And probably looking at a central pressure right at around 1000mb.




Dang... I was 0.1 degrees off. Or a whopping 6 miles.
Quoting 1048. jlp09550:



I think it's moving further west than they planed.
Quoting 1024. wpb:

global hawk taking over for gulfstream jet thats out of action.
been making drops in box all over central and east gulf of mexico and over td 9
started at 2am and ongoing. 24 hour mission


Do you know why Gonzo is not flying? Noticed on the latest Recon Plan a different gulfstream (NCAR5) is going to fly Lester.
Dexter the Wunderdog says...

"If I can do it, you can too!"

Don't forget to take time out to keeping the world safe from tropical cyclones
and perform your civic duty and vote!

A great many good people gave their lives to assure you continue to have that opportunity.
Don't let it be for nothing.
Share your opinions where they count.
Very surprised by the non-upgrade. TD 9.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2016 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 23:57:08 N Lon : 87:06:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 999.2mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.0 3.0


Center Temp : -64.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees
1109. K8eCane
Quoting 1098. GatorWX:



I thought it was ironic he was the first to post an 1100 advisory, on Gaston. Ha


We just need to elect an official post person.
Quoting 1092. Patrap:

I sent a wu mail note to Dr. Masters on the wu radar issue and to his outtie mail inbox.

We gonna need them downstream in time.

Thank you Pat
Quoting 1084. reedzone:

TD9 not upgraded at 11 a.m. However, they are probably waiting for recon to get in there and see what is going on.

Yeah that would be kinda embarrassing to name it just to go out and have it back down to 30kts.
Quoting 1095. CitikatzSouthFL:


Won't be long before he shows up. He must be living on a desert island by now! Every season whining about no rain.


Well, if it were not for the T-waves and storms, that part of the world would be a desert. So, I do understand why he - at times ;) - roots for a storm in his region.
Anyone who hasn't seen it it, check out the new storm surge product from the NHS/NOAA. It's actually pretty durn good and an improvement over the "which square am I in?" guesswork of the SLOSH maps.
1114. Patrap
Quoting 1103. daddyjames:



Yeah Va, you party pooper! ;)


Hey the blog only lagged by like 7 minutes! So you are welcome
I will be surprised if recon doesn't find a 40-50 mph. TS today. NHC is playing it safe and keeping it a TD until we get recon out there later. As for the track, its very unlikely for it to continue further west since there's an upper level low to the west and a strong trough pushing near. The current motion is WNW which means it's catching "something" already.
Quoting 1087. Grothar:



You mean we can't post the 45 page reports anymore? Or post the the NHC update image 15 times? What fun is that?


1071. Grothar
10:43 AM EDT on August 30, 2016
6
Calling WKC!



It's that time of the year and this looks like it can be a Hurricane David type of storm- both strength and track.
Quoting 1085. 69Viking:



On water vapor of the US that trough seems to be riding over the High pressure ridge planted over the SE and my question is will it drop far enough to the West to be able to pick up 09, time will tell I guess. The NHC sure seems to think it will but the models don't seem to be convinced.


I was thinking the same exact thing earlier... where is that trough. The latest discussion from the NHC using the wording "There is suppose to be a trough develop in the SE US that will pick TD9 and pull it NE" (paraphrasing) but they did use "suppose to" ... not sure whay it worries me but it does a little bit. At this point, I am convinced the turn will happen, but I'll feel better once it DOES make the turn....
Quoting 1102. ElConando:

Looks like the NHC shifted the cone a small about eastward, makes sense with the lower latitude.


Didn't you say earlier it was moving NW?? Or NNW???
1120. LargoFl
000
WTNT24 KNHC 301446
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1500 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 87.2W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 87.2W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 86.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 87.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.4N 87.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 36.5N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 87.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


1121. IDTH
Quoting 1083. Grothar:



At this point, I would say it has a very good chance of reaching CAT 1 just before landfall. It will still be entraining some dry air, and shear, while lessening a little today, might increase a little as it approaches it ULL to its north. As I previously wrote, the trough might give it a little assistance in intensification since it should be in an area of very low wind shear as well.

I've been leaning toward a cat 1 for a while
1122. BayFog
Quoting 1070. BayFog:


Madeline, upgraded to Cat 4, nearing Hawaii.

And just after I posted, an advisory was posted keeping Madeline at Cat 3 and a bit weaker. However, as is noticeable n the satellite image, they're taking the storm more westward. Nothing explicit about a direct hit on the Big Island, but that sure looks possible. The forecast still arcs the system just south. Can't see why, but then I don't have their data crunching capabilities.
Quoting 1100. win1gamegiantsplease:



I wonder which situation would bring the SE coast the worst weather as it zips past us, TD9 turning soon or it staying W for a little longer than forecast?


As Levi has been noting in his video posts, TD09 is likely to be lopsided to the east when it makes landfall. So if it tracks further west, inland over SE GA and SC, the coast may actually see more impact than if it stayed offshore.
1124. Grothar
Quoting 1085. 69Viking:



On water vapor of the US that trough seems to be riding over the High pressure ridge planted over the SE and my question is will it drop far enough to the West to be able to pick up 09, time will tell I guess. The NHC sure seems to think it will but the models don't seem to be convinced.


All the current models seem to agree it will. The question is how far the trough will move to the east? 09L should be responding to the weakness to its northeast which should begin sometime today. Now if the trough parked over the NE US moves further south, then we may have a considerable change in the models. It doesn't appear right now it will. The ULL to the east should aid in intensification later tomorrow.

Now, someone will come along and do a video and no one will even remember I wrote all this! All they'll remember is my jokes. :):) Such is my lot in life.
1125. beell
Same song, 4th verse for 99L's LLC (since Sunday)?



Quoting 1090. cat6band:



Well it sure is trekking that way.

My thoughts exactly K.
Quoting 1121. IDTH:


I've been leaning toward a cat 1 for a while


I have been leaning towards getting 2 cats, so 1 won't be lonely.
Quoting 1119. cat6band:



Didn't you say earlier it was moving NW?? Or NNW???


I confused by the vortex messages. I guess I looked at them wrong.
1129. rxse7en
Hey All! Just checking in from Jacksonville. Looks like you all have a handle on TD9 and I'll just update as things progress here.
12Z GFS full of dropsondes


1131. Patrap


2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 30/1730Z,2330Z A. 31/0530Z,1130Z
B. NOAA3 0909A CYCLONE B. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE
C. 30/1600Z C. 31/0400Z
D. 24.7N 86.7W D. 25.5N 86.9W
E. 30/1715Z TO 30/2330Z E. 31/0500Z TO 31/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON TD 09
B. NEGATIVE REQUIREMENTS ON TD 08

4. REMARKS: FIXES FOR TD 08 AT 30/0530Z AND 1130Z DELAYED
3 HOURS TO 30/0830Z AND 1430Z.

Sheesh.. time to warn Cancun???
1133. K8eCane

Quoting 1101. frank727:



I agree with your observations. The past several days 08 has been creating upper level shear to keep 09 from ever stacking even at the slow speed of 09. You can see that on water vapor loop and now it looks for the first time that 09 is not hindered. The ULL over the Bahamas has relaxed some and looks like 08 will start to head north. Something just doesn't feel right but recon should answer our questions soon.


yep recon will be welcomed. Forecaster Blake at NHC wrote up a good 11 am discussion on 08. I thought 08 had collapsed and broken down into some kind of thunderstorm complex lol
Quoting 1081. daddyjames:



Should be ringing up CaribBoy.


Hopefully not just an invest. It's september in a couple of days so I want at least a 55kt and strengthening TS.
What's that spinning up off the coast of Texas? Good convection with spiral outflow apparent on satellite and LLC visible on radar.
1136. ariot
Quoting 1127. daddyjames:



I have been leaning towards getting 2 cats, so 1 won't be lonely.


I did that, adopted two. Named them Mickey and Mallory.

Always adopt from shelters, this ends your PSA.
Anytime a certain someone takes forever to get dressed to go out, I'm gonna yell "Hey TD9, let's go!!"

Quoting 1033. IDTH:

Probably the biggest reason for the huge moisture field with TD 9




Hopefully the MJO will help 92L !!!
Quoting 1130. nrtiwlnvragn:

12Z GFS full of dropsondes




Ahh so this next run has data and info of the conditions in the GOM?
Quoting 1092. Patrap:

I sent a wu mail note to Dr. Masters on the wu radar issue and to his outtie mail inbox.

We gonna need them downstream in time.

There was a major internet slowdown earlier today, seemed to affect sites out of the Northeast the most, but others as well. WU problems might or might not be part of this. Hang loose, as we all do anyway.


Look at Texas!?
1142. Patrap
Quoting 1135. Jbailey0531:

What's that spinning up off the coast of Texas? Good convection with spiral outflow apparent on satellite and LLC visible on radar.



read the NHC discussion
Quoting 1124. Grothar:



All the current models seem to agree it will. The question is how far the trough will move to the east? 09L should be responding to the weakness to its northeast which should begin sometime today. Now if the trough parked over the NE US moves further south, then we may have a considerable change in the models. It doesn't appear right now it will. The ULL to the east should aid in intensification later tomorrow.

Now, someone will come along and do a video and no one will even remember I wrote all this! All they'll remember is my jokes. :):) Such is my lot in life.


I'll take a screen shot for posterity ;)
Quoting 1140. wishingSCsnow:


There was a major internet slowdown earlier today, seemed to affect sites out of the Northeast the most, but others as well. WU problems might or might not be part of this. Hang loose, as we all do anyway.


Yeah, notice that CIMSS has been having some issues

Quoting 1116. reedzone:
I will be surprised if recon doesn't find a 40-50 mph. TS today. NHC is playing it safe and keeping it a TD until we get recon out there later. As for the track, its very unlikely for it to continue further west since there's an upper level low to the west and a strong trough pushing near. The current motion is WNW which means it's catching "something" already.


It currently sits at 24.0 N, that is the same coordinates to the North as yesterday at 5 pm EDT. This system is meandering to the West with slight jogs but hasn't made any turn or caught anything yet. The low pressure trough that is supposed to pull it North and then NE is still in Canada according to a water vapor loop of North America!

Quoting 1139. reedzone:




Yes


That's what I'm waiting on- to see where the trough is and when it's going to be able to swing that thing northeast. Until then, the gulf coast is game :-\
Quoting 1135. Jbailey0531:

What's that spinning up off the coast of Texas? Good convection with spiral outflow apparent on satellite and LLC visible on radar.


Future moisture for TD9.
1149. Patrap
NWS Nexrad radar is working.
Certainly looking juicy out there.



Quoting 1145. 69Viking:



It currently sits at 24.0 N, that is the same coordinates to the North as yesterday at 5 pm EDT. This system is meandering to the West with slight jogs but hasn't made any turn or caught anything yet. The low pressure trough that is supposed to pull it North and then NE is still in Canada according to a water vapor loop of North America!



Maybe my GFL (Grizzle Florida Local) model is going to verify with TD9 landing in the LA area afterall!
1153. Grothar
1154. Grothar
Quoting 1143. hurricanehanna:



I'll take a screen shot for posterity ;)


That's what friends are for.
Quoting 1134. CaribBoy:



Hopefully not just an invest. It's september in a couple of days so I want at least a 55kt and strengthening TS.


You want rain - who cares about wind?
Band is forming in the southwest quadrant.

Quoting 1146. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes





I feel like the Global Hawk will be a game-changer going forward with feeding good data into the models. NOAA certainly is taking advantage of their new toys. At some point I'd expect to see a whole squadron of UAVs flying at once.

Quoting 1153. Grothar:





We have a piranha!!
1159. GatorWX
Tides have been pretty high here last two days. I'd say ~10" or so above normal. Docks are underwater and what not. Wind is lighter today, but still offshore. Haven't looked at forecast tides, but that's what's going on down here 80 miles south of Tampa.
So are those biodegradable or do we just put hundreds of those in the ocean every year lmao
Quoting 1156. FunnelVortex:

Band is forming in the southwest quadrant.




Really? I didn't know TD09 was going to have musical accompaniment.
09L Dvorak numbers taking off - - 2016AUG30 141500 2.9 998.0 43.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 - - looks like a storm too me
Quoting 1153. Grothar:




Flashback to 1995 satellite imagery!
Quoting 1161. daddyjames:



Really? I didn't know TD09 was going to have musical accompaniment.


Wonder if its a cover band.
Quoting 1156. FunnelVortex:

Band is forming in the southwest quadrant.




Looks like on forming to the south as well, between the Yucatan and Cuba, and one attempting to form on the north, but the air is too dry.
1166. OKsky
Quoting 1161. daddyjames:



Really? I didn't know TD09 was going to have musical accompaniment.


Yep, its a common thing, this was how the scorpions wrote their album "Love at First Sting".
1167. WxLogic
For now the 12Z NAM depicts a deeper TROF digging into the N Gulf states which in turn causes TD#9 to start turning NE a bit sooner than expected and therefore a right shift in track.

Not saying TD#9 will follow NAM proposed track but when it comes to steering patterns across CONUS it appears that there's a hint of a deeper TROF... will 12Z GFS and other global/HURR models follow? We'll find out soon.
1168. beell
Quoting 1146. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes






No!!
1169. Patrap

 Upper Jefferson Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsCoastal Flood WatchIssued: 3:44 AM CDT Aug. 30, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from this evening
through Thursday morning...

* coastal flooding... tides possibly 2 feet above normal

* timing... tonight through Thursday morning

* impacts... tides up to 2 feet above normal will lead to
inundation of low lying coastal roadways and areas not typically
subject to coastal flooding during high tides outside of
protection levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.

Quoting 1164. VAbeachhurricanes:



Wonder if its a cover band.


naw, if that were the case TD09 would have a CDO over the LLC.
Quoting 1127. daddyjames:



I have been leaning towards getting 2 cats, so 1 won't be lonely.


Important for dogs. Cats don't care.
1172. Grothar
Quoting 1117. rmbjoe1954:



1071. Grothar
10:43 AM EDT on August 30, 2016
6
Calling WKC!



It's that time of the year and this looks like it can be a Hurricane David type of storm- both strength and track.


We were lucky with David. I had just returned from Germany about a week before. If I remember correctly it had reached 180 mph at one point. 92L looks like a similar path. The current long term models also turn it north just as it approaches the SE coast like David. I hope they are right.


Hurricane David 1979
What time does recon take off?
Quoting 1043. Grothar:

While 09L is looking better than it ever has, it still does not appear to be vertically stacked. It is moving into a very favorable environment, and should be a TS later today. It could well be intensifying all the way until landfall and possibly aided by the ULL to its north assisting with outflow which sometimes can either hinder or assist a system.

The trough currently parked over the NE US should be well placed to draw 09L into the weakness to the NE of FL. However, (I never use the phrase "that being said"), it remains to be seen how far the trough moves south. I believe 09L will still be in a favorable position to intensify to at least a Cat 1.




Let's hope for once that you're wrong! But I've got a bad feeling about TD9.
Quoting 1173. Bucsboltsfan:

What time does recon take off?


20 minutes
Quoting 1146. nrtiwlnvragn:



Yes



Quoting 1168. beell:




No!!


Three.
Good Morning Class! How are our "little frens" making out ?
1178. Patrap
Recon Info is found on the nhc home page

1179. WxLogic
Quoting 1173. Bucsboltsfan:

What time does recon take off?


Answered.
Quoting 1176. daddyjames:



Three.


Looks like saturation to me!
Quoting 1175. VAbeachhurricanes:



20 minutes


Thx
1182. K8eCane
Quoting 1147. MandyFSU:

That's what I'm waiting on- to see where the trough is and when it's going to be able to swing that thing northeast. Until then, the gulf coast is game :-\


Mandy Im in Wilmington NC and I dont think 08 is completely following protocol so just stay aware!
A mid-tropospheric trough that is
expected to develop over the southeastern United States should
induce a turn toward the north, and then northeast, with a gradual
increase in forward speed over the next few days


From the latest NHC Discussion...Possibly related to the ULL that was moving West in tandem with

TD 8. I believe Levi discussed this yesterday.
See the cirrus clouds on the edge of the thunderstorm complex? It's a sign that the thunderstorms are collapsing. 09L still isn't maintaining convection.

1185. CBJeff
I'm not sure it has any significance, but the possibility exists that Mission 9 into TD9 (formerly 99L) will be the one that finally bestows a name.

No doubt with a Minimum Central Pressure of 999 mb...
1186. Grothar
Quoting 1167. WxLogic:

For now the 12Z NAM depicts a deeper TROF digging into the N Gulf states which in turn causes TD#9 to start turning NE a bit sooner than expected and therefore a right shift in track.

Not saying TD#9 will follow NAM proposed track but when it comes to steering patterns across CONUS it appears that there's a hint of a deeper TROF... will 12Z GFS and other global/HURR models follow? We'll find out soon.


Agreed Wx. Very possible.
look at the eye of Gaston
12Z GFS trending stronger and to the left of the last few runs.

Quoting 1182. K8eCane:



Mandy Im in Wilmington NC and I dont think 08 is completely following protocol so just stay aware!


Thanks K8! I'm definitely keeping apprised. Wondering if it'll be enough to give us a day off work without any damage, so to speak.
Quoting 1134. CaribBoy:



Hopefully not just an invest. It's september in a couple of days so I want at least a 55kt and strengthening TS.


Let's not get too demanding.......how about 3-6 inches?
Does anyone else think someone is trying to get us to stop using this site? It takes so long to load. It was run much better when Dr. Masters owned it. Why buy a great site like this just to neglect it. It should have improved. 😞
Anyone know of any other site that is as good as this one used to be? I hate to think we are stuck with this. What happens if we get a monster in the gulf?
1192. dalupus
Quoting 1173. Bucsboltsfan:

What time does recon take off?


https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

I like to use this page to check on recon schedule. Is a bit more user friendly.
1193. Grothar
Quoting 1174. Envoirment:



Let's hope for once that you're wrong! But I've got a bad feeling about TD9.


Never happen! :)
The way TD9 has been looking I think anything from Mobile E to the Big Bend needs to watch this.
1195. Patrap
Quoting 1184. pipelines:

See the cirrus clouds on the edge of the thunderstorm complex? It's a sign that the thunderstorms are collapsing. 09L still isn't maintaining convection.




Also notice the new convection bubbling up in the middle.

I have no doubt about the "turn", I'm just not seeing it as the NHC graphic says - according to it, the next forecst point is NNW of where it is now, yet the storm looks as though momentum is still WNW. Wont the models/cone need to be adjusted??
Quoting 1163. RitaEvac:



Flashback to 1995 satellite imagery!
That image makes me feel 25 again! (Hope I don't get banned for this comment)
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300810
SPC AC 300810

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE
DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL U.S. AND
HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY/DAY 4 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WRN STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...ALONG WHICH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH SOLUTIONS ESTABLISH
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES ON SATURDAY/DAY 5
INTO SUNDAY/DAY 6 AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE GREAT
PLAINS WHERE SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING. ON MONDAY/DAY 7 AND TUESDAY/DAY 8...THE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
THE NCNTRL U.S. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. THE
GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SLOWER TO MOVE
THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST THAN THE ECMWF. IN SPITE OF THE
DIFFERENCES...BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW A POCKET OF INSTABILITY IN THE
CNTRL PLAINS TO MID MO VALLEY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS AREA
WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
SUBSTANTIAL THIS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
SATURDAY/DAY 5 TO TUESDAY/DAY 8 MAINLY FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ADD A SEVERE THREAT
CONTOUR IN THE NCNTRL U.S. FOR THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD UNTIL MODEL
AGREEMENT AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASE CONCERNING THE FINER-SCALE
DETAILS.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2016
1200. Gearsts
Huge dry wave.
Mid Atlantic needs to watch whatever becomes of TD9. It's embedded in a thickness gradient and should become baroclinic and is below the size that baroclinic waves usually amplify BUT the GFS amplifies it and the easterly flow
around the high to the north cancels the effect of the upper westerlies for net propagation slowly west to near the Delmarva, more rapidly west as the thickness gradient and associated upper westerlies relax Sunday and Monday. The storm also clearly retains its warm core suggesting it does not do a baroclinic transition but instead becomes a subtropical storm or regains full tropical characteristics.
Quoting 1153. Grothar:




Im not EVEN going to ask! Nice pic Master!
Quoting 1180. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Looks like saturation to me!


Definitely trying to nail where it'll be heading, and how strong it may possibly be.
TD9 while it has very impressive convection right now, it is mainly focused on the south side of the storm. Some good news for TD9 is that a very large convective burst seeming to be happening on the West side of the COC advancing northwards. If the storm is able to get a good convective envelope to its NW side it will help hugely with some of the dry air that will come at it later as it heads towards landfall. Storm still need to be properly stacked, but it has gotten much better than the last 48 hours. The storm is likely already a TS but we will have to wait a bit to make it official.
St. Augustine has had several inches of rain from off of the ocean in the past couple of days, and at least a couple of inches today in the southern portion of the area. Expecting 5 + with the passing of storm. Ground is pretty saturated; more rain and a little wind could make things pretty messy here. Best wishes to everyone from the nation's oldest city.
Quoting 1192. dalupus:



https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/

I like to use this page to check on recon schedule. Is a bit more user friendly.


Thank you.
Quoting 1191. ajcamsmom2:

Does anyone else think someone is trying to get us to stop using this site? It takes so long to load. It was run much better when Dr. Masters owned it. Why buy a great site like this just to neglect it. It should have improved. 😞
Anyone know of any other site that is as good as this one used to be? I hate to think we are stuck with this. What happens if we get a monster in the gulf?


You listen to the NHC and do what they say? lol
About that 92L Invest thing, NHC says nevermind (at least for now).

Atlantic Storm Index
1209. K8eCane
Quoting 1189. MandyFSU:



Thanks K8! I'm definitely keeping apprised. Wondering if it'll be enough to give us a day off work without any damage, so to speak.


Well one things for sure, you guys down there know how to get prepared in a hurry, which is a gooood thing....lol
That dry air really is a life saver.

1212. IKE
Convection waning again on TD9.
Quoting 1174. Envoirment:



Let's hope for once that you're wrong! But I've got a bad feeling about TD9.


Cape Verde Seedlings do not like being "mocked" their entire trip from Africa.

Quoting 1161. daddyjames:



Really? I didn't know TD09 was going to have musical accompaniment.   Its called Bonding,trying to bond with the Yucatan and Cuba.

Quoting 1209. K8eCane:



Well one things for sure, you guys down there know how to get prepared in a hurry, which is a gooood thing....lol


Ha! Luckily, in Tallahassee at least, we don't have to do too much. Just bring in the lawn furniture. We're far enough away from the coast that we don't worry about flooding (unless it's localized from slow drainage in a neighborhood) Winds are usually slowed down by the time they get here as well. It would take a decent 'cane coming right up the St. Marks River to hurt us too much.

I think this one is going to hit closer to Steinhatchee so we probably won't get much of anything. Bummer cause a TS warning would close schools- which would give me a day off work (I think lol)
Quoting 1211. NoobDave:

That dry air really is a life saver.




The dry air honestly isn't having much of an impact on TD9, the main issue is that it isn't properly stacked, yet. Besides, the dry air is starting to close off.

Don't let your guard down yet.
After watching this thing for almost 2 weeks ,we will see  Peak wind gust 46 mph 3-6 inches of rain. ,Yawn. We need a  Gilbert ,Allen David ,Frederick type storm. 
Quoting 1208. nrtiwlnvragn:

About that 92L Invest thing, NHC says nevermind (at least for now).

Atlantic Storm Index


lol...Wish they'd make up their minds. I was looking forward to having the storm specific models all the way across the basin.
1219. Grothar
Quoting 1163. RitaEvac:



Flashback to 1995 satellite imagery!



I have one from 1941. Do want to see it?
1207. pipelines
10:47 AM CDT on August 30, 2016

What I meant is that it will take an hour or so for the posts to appear with the way this site has been allowed to deteriorate. Looks like some new servers are in order. This is a great site with a whole bunch of wonderful bloggers. It just needs to load faster.
This may be a dumb question (I'm certainly no expert) but how much skill (if any) does the NAVGEM have with tropical systems? I only ask as that's the model that forecasts the most rain and/or wind for us here in the lowcountry after 09 finishes running through Florida...
Quoting 1207. pipelines:



You listen to the NHC and do what they say? lol


Lol, comments like those make me worry
Impressive for sure, a very well structured hurricane. It is kind of a miracle it survived the shear and dry air ingestion of few days ago.
Luckily no land in sight for the time being.
Quoting 1187. bigwes6844:

look at the eye of Gaston


1224. WxLogic
Quoting 1188. SavannahStorm:

12Z GFS trending stronger and to the left of the last few runs.




About 25NM to the left from 06Z. TROF configuration about the same.
Well, this is certainly a big change. I may have tropical storm conditions on Friday.

1226. Gearsts
Quoting 1216. FunnelVortex:



The dry air honestly isn't having much of an impact on TD9, the main issue is that it isn't properly stacked, yet. Besides, the dry air is starting to close off.

Don't let your guard down yet.
Dry air has been at still is a huge issue for td9.

Arc clouds racing from the convection.
Maybe so, but if you look at the overall areal coverage of the storm it has increased by a huge amount. Also look at the wind map and it is circulating the entire air mass of the GOM! It is now well stacked to the 700mb level. If the 500mb aligns, there will be trouble.
Quoting 1216. FunnelVortex:



The dry air honestly isn't having much of an impact on TD9, the main issue is that it isn't properly stacked, yet. Besides, the dry air is starting to close off.

Don't let your guard down yet.

To my friends in Chucktown: It's gon' rain.

Quoting 1193. Grothar:



Never happen! :)


Need a wheelbarrow?
130 miles south of Tampa and it's relatively dead. There are some clouds in the sky and a light occasional breeze, but nothing substantial. It rained a bit on and off yesterday starting at 2pm and dying off around 8pm. This morning has been precipitation free, but the humidity is enough to kill.
1231. palmpt
Quoting 1191. ajcamsmom2:

Does anyone else think someone is trying to get us to stop using this site? It takes so long to load. It was run much better when Dr. Masters owned it. Why buy a great site like this just to neglect it. It should have improved. 😞
Anyone know of any other site that is as good as this one used to be? I hate to think we are stuck with this. What happens if we get a monster in the gulf?


It amazes that with social engagement tools out there, and the growing engagement on this site, that WU is not using the most up-to-date tools. I'm sure that will change for next season.
1232. barbamz
Kristen Kirchhaine ‏@KristenWeather 5 Min.
We are on board the NOAA P3, aka Miss Piggy. This could be the flight to determine if #TD9 becomes a tropical storm!



More pics see link above.
Meanwhile, Madeline has continued to deviate more north while the Hurricane Center still is trying to stick with their "just south of the Big Island track." I'm not sure if it's going to do that. It's still a 120mph Cat. 3: wonder how strong it can keep itself when it gets to the Big Island. I remember when I visited Hawaii, there was a strong belief from the locals that ANY tropical cyclone that approached the Big Island would almost magically be dissipated because Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea are such big, tall mountains. Wonder how this situation will end up...

12Z NAM is still trying to destroy the Panhandle
1235. 7544
Quoting 1167. WxLogic:

For now the 12Z NAM depicts a deeper TROF digging into the N Gulf states which in turn causes TD#9 to start turning NE a bit sooner than expected and therefore a right shift in track.

Not saying TD#9 will follow NAM proposed track but when it comes to steering patterns across CONUS it appears that there's a hint of a deeper TROF... will 12Z GFS and other global/HURR models follow? We'll find out soon.


so it can make the ne turn further south the question is jhow far south will this ne turn begin with 9 not moving too fast may give the trof more time to dig inn and to catch it before 9 gets too the north
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
000
FXUS02 KWBC 301539
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1138 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 02 2016 - 12Z TUE SEP 06 2016

...OVERVIEW...

GUIDANCE CONFIDENTLY SHOWS THE MEAN PATTERN SETTLING INTO AN ERN
PAC RIDGE/WRN U.S. TROUGH/ERN RIDGE AND WEAKNESS OFF THE EAST
COAST CONFIGURATION BUT WITH SOME DEFINITE UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES INCLUDE SHRTWV DETAILS WITHIN
THE WRN TROUGH BEFORE THESE IMPULSES EMERGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
THE ENTIRE WEAKNESS OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST... WHETHER IT
INCLUDES TD 9. AS FOR THE TROPICS... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TD 8 WHICH SHOULD BE EXTRA-TROPICAL BY
FRI AND OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER TD 9... WHICH IS FCST TO CROSS
NRN FLORIDA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND
EMERGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC... A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD DEVELOPS
ON WHETHER THE INITIAL EAST COAST TROUGH ACCELERATES 9 INTO THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OR 9 GET LEFT BEHIND OFF THE EAST
COAST WITH A WEAKNESS.


...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC WENT WITH A 50/50 OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF ON FRI... TRANSITION
TO A 60 EC/EC MEAN 40 GFS/GEFS MEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND FOR LABOR
DAY AND NEXT TUES A 90 EC/EC MEAN/GEFS MEAN AND 10 GFS BLEND.

THE GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR EARLY ON WITH THE WRN MEAN TROUGH...
AS A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LIFTS FROM THE PAC NW TO THE NRN
PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA. SOME SLIGHT SPREAD ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SHORT WAVE... AS GFS APPEARS TO BE A SLOWER OUTLIER. AS THIS
DEEPENING SYSTEM GOES THROUGH COMPLETE CYCLOGENESIS OVER CANADA
AND WEST/SW OF HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND... ADDITIONAL PAC
DYNAMICS DIVE INTO THE WRN TROUGH. THE GFS HERE IS STILL A BIT
MORE BULLISH WITH THIS IMPULSE ARRIVING INTO THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES AND ADVANCING DOWNSTREAM. BY LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD...
THE MEAN TROUGH BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BROADEN... STRETCHING
FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

THE FCST OVER THE EAST SEEMS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... AS POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SHOULD PICK UP TD 9... WHICH WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTH AND EAST ON FRI
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT BUT BY SAT... TREMENDOUS
SPREAD DEVELOPS. THE EC/EC MEAN ALLOW THE TROUGH TO ADVANCE TD 9
INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND EXTEND THE WEAKNESS FROM
THE DEEP SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN/GEFS MEAN
ALLOW THE WESTERLIES AND TROUGH TO ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM... A PIECE
OF UPPER DYNAMICS TO DIG TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND THIS LEAVES TD 9
HOVERING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATL/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE MORE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD SOLUTION.


...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THOSE NEAR THE EAST COAST... AND THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID ATLC COAST
IN PARTICULAR... SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FCSTS FOR T.D. NINE
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS. THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THE REST OF THE EAST COAST SEES ANY EFFECTS FROM
T.D. NINE IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE PLAINS... MAJORITY OF PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE OUT INTO THE PLAINS BUT MOVE EXTREMELY SLOWLY AND
SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
GREAT LAKES. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SOME LINGERING DIURNAL RNFL OVER FL
AND NEAR THE GULF COAST.

THE NRN PLAINS WILL SEE THE MOST DRAMATIC CHANGE IN TEMPS DURING
THE FCST PERIOD AS ADVANCING COOL AIR OVER THE WEST DISPLACES LATE
WEEK HEAT. NRN PLAINS HIGHS SHOULD BE 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL FRI BUT
THEN FALL TO 5-15F BELOW NORMAL BY SUN-MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE EAST WILL BRING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT WARM FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL LIKELY PUSH HIGHS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE OH
VLY/GRTLKS INTO NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MUSHER/RAUSCH

$$
Quoting 1228. SavannahStorm:

To my friends in Chucktown: It's gon' rain.




I gotta feeling it is gonna rain more than they think....possible school close Friday...the islands flood so bad...buses wont get thru....
Quoting 1205. StAugDog:
St. Augustine has had several inches of rain from off of the ocean in the past couple of days, and at least a couple of inches today in the southern portion of the area. Expecting 5 + with the passing of storm. Ground is pretty saturated; more rain and a little wind could make things pretty messy here. Best wishes to everyone from the nation's oldest city.


Visited St. Augustine, Savannah and Charleston this past July for our summer vacation, all of those are beautiful cities!
Quoting 1219. Grothar:




I have one from 1941. Do want to see it?


Lol ...this kind of comment reminds me of "I have some sketches back at my place, would you like to see them?"
231. palmpt
10:58 AM CDT on August 30, 2016

Sure hope so, I have been following this site since Katrina...I would hate not to be able to find out that my fellow bloggers are okay after a big storm...or if they need some help getting prepared
Looks like Gaston is intensifying:



Perhaps he'll become a major once again later today? :)
Quoting 1231. palmpt:



It amazes that with social engagement tools out there, and the growing engagement on this site, that WU is not using the most up-to-date tools. I'm sure that will change for next season.


Actually this site has never had this issue before. The traffic over the last couple of days is nothing compared to earlier years. Something has changed, maybe some scripts, real time events or sub system processes that they are now using?
The changes to the wundermaps arent ideal either, just my opinion though, others may like them now
Quoting 1239. 69Viking:



Visited St. Augustine, Savannah and Charleston this past July for our summer vacation, all of those are beautiful cities!


Charleston is beautiful....under water during high tides and rain....but still beautiful
1245. Patrap
Quoting 1220. ajcamsmom2:

1207. pipelines
10:47 AM CDT on August 30, 2016

What I meant is that it will take an hour or so for the posts to appear with the way this site has been allowed to deteriorate. Looks like some new servers are in order. This is a great site with a whole bunch of wonderful bloggers. It just needs to load faster.



Its a software issue, not a server one.


The blogs only use 2-3 % of the server on the busiest days.
1243. justmehouston
11:06 AM CDT on August 30, 2016

Well said
1245. Patrap
11:10 AM CDT on August 30, 2016

It needs to be addressed
Oh, and Patrap...you are one of the many bloggers I would worry about if anything came our way
Quoting 1215. MandyFSU:



Ha! Luckily, in Tallahassee at least, we don't have to do too much. Just bring in the lawn furniture. We're far enough away from the coast that we don't worry about flooding (unless it's localized from slow drainage in a neighborhood) Winds are usually slowed down by the time they get here as well. It would take a decent 'cane coming right up the St. Marks River to hurt us too much.

I think this one is going to hit closer to Steinhatchee so we probably won't get much of anything. Bummer cause a TS warning would close schools- which would give me a day off work (I think lol)


Kate came inland near Mexico Beach and devastated Tallahassee in 1985
1250. Grothar
Quoting 1240. justmehouston:



Lol ...this kind of comment reminds me of "I have some sketches back at my place, would you like to see them?"


Are you kidding? When I was 21 my place looked like the Louvre. :)
Tied up at work for the past few hours; as TD9 is the one headed towards me in the Big Bend, glad to see that the models are backing off on intensification issues at landfall. Here are the updated CIMMS charts for 11:00 am.

Nice vort at the surface but still tilted and the Tutt cells in the Gulf and Northern Florida should keep this one in check towards landfall:


Surface:


Mid:


Upper Level Tutts:


Current Shear:
TD9 tries once again comin' to my turf on the 12Z GFS. My thought on this is. If it crosses into a landfall Thursday evening rather than morning in FL. This is possible.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 1205. StAugDog:

St. Augustine has had several inches of rain from off of the ocean in the past couple of days, and at least a couple of inches today in the southern portion of the area. Expecting 5 + with the passing of storm. Ground is pretty saturated; more rain and a little wind could make things pretty messy here. Best wishes to everyone from the nation's oldest city.

Interesting to see the strong SE fetch of wind along the NE coast of Florida which appears to riding the gradient between the two storms. Then, 100 miles SW in Orlando, it's dead calm:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surfac e/level/orthographic=-80.49,28.83,1723/loc=-81.735 ,28.176
Quoting 862. Sfloridacat5:

Based on this chart, T.D.9 has moved quite a bit to the west overnight. I would like to see this updated. I think T.D. 9 has moved some to the north.

of course it moved more north and it will keeping moving more north each update
here in daytona beach people are planning their usual day at the beach the next 6 days
Rookie from Stuart Fl, been through many storms, Andrew and Floyd were the biggest scares, sat through Frances, Jean and Wilma. The back side of Wilma kicked our butt. Thanks to all, there is a lot of learning going on around here!!
those troughs only come down far when a storm is approaching from the atlantic to block it from hitting daytona .... from the west they dont come down that far to keep a gulf sttorm north of daytona .... safe place to live here
so much for those record high sea temps in the gulf building a monster storm .. i guess that theory is out the window thank god