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Hurricane Warnings in Belize, Honduras, and Mexico for Earl

By: Jeff Masters 3:29 PM GMT on August 03, 2016

Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of Belize, the southern portion of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the islands off the north coast of Honduras, as a strengthening Tropical Storm Earl speeds westwards at 14 mph. The Hurricane Hunters did not find hurricane-force winds in Earl in a mission that departed from the storm around 8 am EDT Wednesday, but a new airplane arrived in Earl around 11 am, and will likely find that Earl is a hurricane by mid-afternoon Wednesday. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed Earl was steadily gaining in organization, with an increase in symmetry, low-level spiral bands and heavy thunderstorm activity. No eye was apparent in the visible satellite imagery, but we should see one appear before sunset on Wednesday. The outer bands of Earl were just beginning to appear on Belize radar late Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Earl as seen at 3:30 pm EDT August 3, 2016, when the storm had top sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NHC Facebook page.

Forecast for Earl
The forecast for Earl appears straightforward. Earl is trapped to the south of a strong area of high pressure that will keep the storm moving on a track slightly north of due west at 10 - 14 mph over the next four days. This motion will bring the center of the storm within twenty miles of Guanaja Island off the coast of Honduras near 4 pm EDT Wednesday, then to the coast of central Belize around 4 am EDT Thursday. Earl has favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for intensification: light to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and very warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F). These warm waters extend to great depth, providing plenty of fuel to power intensification of the storm. Typically, storms that approach landfall begin to undergo interaction with land that causes a slowdown in intensification or weakening. However, storms in the Western Caribbean often undergo intensification right up until landfall, due to the extremely warm waters with high heat content that lie along the coast. The topography of the coast in the right-angle bend between Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras may also act to aid intensification by giving storms more spin, as air gets deflected into a counter-clockwise motion by the high terrain ringing the ocean. This effect has been shown to exist in modeling studies of some storms in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, but has not been studied (to my knowledge) for the region along the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize, though.

The main concern from Earl is its heavy rains. With rainfall amounts in excess of 8" expected over a swath of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, most of Belize, and a chunk of Mexico, expect life-threatening flash floods and landslides. The storm's 4 - 6' storm surge will cause additional flooding along the coast near and to the right of where the center hits in Belize. Strong winds will also be a major concern. In their 11 am EDT Wednesday Wind Probability forecast, NHC gave Guanaja Island a 97% and 30% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph and hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph, respectively. For Belize City, these odds were 94% and 17%, respectively. Earl is already a killer: high winds in the Dominican Republic associated with the tropical wave that became Earl brought power lines down and sparked a fire aboard a bus, killing 6 and injuring 12 people, according to weather.com. Three others were killed after a tour boat overturned, although that incident had not yet been confirmed to be weather-related.


Figure 2. Tracks of the approximately 80 tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes that have hit Belize since 1851. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Belize hurricane history
Belize is often struck by tropical storms and hurricanes. Approximately 80 tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes have hit Belize since 1851, but it has been five years since the last landfall by a named storm--Tropical Storm Harvey, which hit on August 20, 2011, with 65 mph sustained winds. Harvey's flooding rains killed five people in Mexico, but did little damage in Belize. The last hurricane to hit Belize was Hurricane Richard on October 23, 2010, which made landfall about 20 miles south of Belize's largest city, Belize City (population approximately 100,000--1/3 of Belize's population.) Richard hit as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, but was a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds affecting a region of coast of no more than 20 - 30 miles wide. The hurricane killed one and did about $80 million in damage. The last major hurricane to hit Belize was Hurricane Iris on October 9, 2001, which made landfall in southern Belize as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds, killing 35 and doing $250 million in damage.

Links for Earl
Belize radar
National Emergency Management Organization of Belize

Webcam links posted by WU members in the comments:
Belize webcams
Ambergris Caye, Belize
Roatan, Honduras

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
There are no other tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. Despite the relative lack of dry air and dust from the Sahara Desert over the tropical Atlantic, the strong tropical wave near 9°N, 38°W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, is showing no signs of development, and the 50 members of the European model ensemble and 20 members of the GFS model ensemble are giving little support to development of this wave over the coming week.

A few recent runs of the European model have shown that a weak trough of low pressure will move over the Southeast U.S. early next week and move over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, off the Florida Panhandle coast. About 10% of the 50 members of the European model ensemble forecast have been highlighting this area for possible formation of a tropical depression in 5 - 7 days.

Howard and Ivette active in the Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific continues to be active, with two named storms, Howard and Ivette. Neither storm is a threat to land. Tropical Storm Howard hit its peak with 60 mph winds on Tuesday, and is steadily deteriorating as it runs into cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere. Howard should be a remnant low by Thursday night, but could bring some squally weather and high surf to portions of Hawaii on Sunday. Next up is Tropical Storm Ivette, which is gathering strength in the Pacific waters south of the Mexican coast. Ivette will be moving away from the Mexican coast on a west to west-northwest track, and is expected to peak as a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday before cooler waters and less favorable atmospheric conditions result in weakening as the storm approaches Hawaii early next week.

There is one more area of concern in the Eastern Pacific: the possible arrival of the remnants of Hurricane Earl early next week. Earl will cease to exist as a named storm during its long traverse of Mexico during the coming weekend, but if Earl's remnants manage to cross over Mexico and arrive over the waters off the coast of Acapulco, Mexico with some spin still intact, regeneration into a tropical storm is possible. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the remnants of Earl 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively. If Earl's circulation has become unidentifiable the time it crosses into the Pacific, the new storm would be named Javier.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

beell, this caught my eye:

O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

That's really accurate. 40 1/2 yards, the length of a decent football field goal.
Quoting 498. ProgressivePulse:

Strengthening underway for sure..



but its too late time is almost up for this one
503. beell
Quoting 501. BaltimoreBrian:

beell, this caught my eye:

O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

That's really accurate. 40 1/2 yards, the length of a decent football field goal.




As we sometimes say here in Texas, "Close enough for the girls I run with!"
It is very bad in the wedge of cool heavy rains across western NC...some spots will see 10-20" through tomorrow. Over 20 rescues in Statesville and currently Surry County is being smoked with over 9". I'm prepared to seek higher ground overnight as these micro showers develop and move between 0-2knots. I live in the foothills in Wilkes where its suppose to pick up late overnight as the wedge is pinched to the west.

505. IDTH
Quoting 487. Gearsts:



THAT PULSE DOH!
Quoting 488. Tcwx2:

Too far out to know what kind of impact it'd have in Houston at this point. At this point it seems more likely for it to impact my area though, or more specifically (or broadly) Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and/or Louisiana. This may be a surprise system, let's just watch, shall we?



Then you see no similarities to Alicia? Bob Rose, our Texas weather blogger, wants everyone to stay tuned. He seems to feel there will eventually be an effect on state weather. Why would he do that when the Euro doesn't indicate a system of any kind moving toward this one during its forecast period?
sfmr at 56mph with a pressure of 985?
Quoting 507. pureet1948:




Then you see no similarities to Alicia? Bob Rose, our Texas weather blogger, wants everyone to stay tuned. He seems to feel there will eventually be an effect on state weather.


It is like 10 days out, it will change 8,000 times between now and then. Plus we have a landfalling hurricane happening right now.
Quoting 505. IDTH:


THAT PULSE DOH!

I wonder if that MJO could reach the Atlantic by September. If it does, it would probably be much weaker...
Signed on after a 24hr absence in my lurking to get deja vu. Early August 'E' cat 1 in the vicinity of Belize/Yucatan with a pinwheel look?

Ernesto:

Quoting 492. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Thankfully this will not happen but I believe if Earl had one more day over water could have been a major


Just imagine if it closed off 12-24 hrs before it did
513. Tcwx2
I really have no idea at this point, it's still a 5-10 days out more if it stalls. Bottom line, everyone along the Gulf Coast should pay attention to this.
Quoting 507. pureet1948:




Then you see no similarities to Alicia? Bob Rose, our Texas weather blogger, wants everyone to stay tuned. He seems to feel there will eventually be an effect on state weather.
With the center of Earl almost on top of them, the Belize airport shows only NW at 12-16 mph, gusts to 20, with light rain. Nice expansion of the clouds on satellite though.

Quoting 509. Hurricanes101:



It is like 10 days out, it will change 8,000 times between now and then.



Hope so.
Quoting 487. Gearsts:




wow the W PAC will have some major storms with that
Quoting 505. IDTH:


THAT PULSE DOH!

Probably too early for major mid-latitude storms in the Pacific, but prime time for typhoons.
Always get a bit sad when a storm like Earl that I have been tracking for a week travels a long week and develops from a T Wave into a Cat 1 beast. And now it will make landfall and die.... :(
Last Vortex had 56.4mph surface winds is this even a hurricane anymore?
The dropsone dropped through winds that were 90MPH at 2000 feet but then never recorded the wind at the surface .
Quoting 519. ProgressivePulse:

Last Vortex had 56.4mph surface winds is this even a hurricane anymore?

If you've ever heard of a 56 mph tropical storm with a minimum pressure of 985 mbars.
522. Tcwx2
Check out this site, if webcam does not stream live refresh, it will only stream for 2 minutes. It is getting pretty rough now. http://consejo.bz/webcam/webcam.html
Quoting 519. ProgressivePulse:

Last Vortex had 56.4mph surface winds is this even a hurricane anymore?

I'm sure it is, the pressure is only dropping.
I feel bad for those in the path of Earl tonight. Gonna be a rough night ahead. From a meteorological standpoint, Earl is a thing of beauty, rather textbook if you ask me. Sprawling outflow, some 900 miles wide (from 79W to 94W), but a really tight CDO. Was looking at that Vortex report, and the big changes I have seen since checking in at 5pm, are the drop in pressure, they eye is closed completely (was open in the SW, then S), and overall structural appearance.
Quoting 519. ProgressivePulse:

Last Vortex had 56.4mph surface winds is this even a hurricane anymore?


Haven't seen any data outside of the blog (on mobile, laptop is bein a fickle you know what).

I do have the ssd.noaa page bookmarked, and the satellite presentation seems like it's doing fine. If anything it looks like its a bit stronger.

Quoting 513. Tcwx2:

I really have no idea at this point, it's still a 5-10 days out more if it stalls. Bottom line, everyone along the Gulf Coast should pay attention to this.



HGX pro mets say:

Early Next Week...
The GFS and Euro continue to advertise an upper trough drifting
across North Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week,
and even generating a surface reflection of low pressure in the
Euro where the feature is stronger. For what it`s worth, the
Canadian does not have this feature at all. Not even in the
stronger Euro is this low enough to bust down the ridge and move
into Texas. Despite that, it looks to make enough of a dent that
the lowering heights would again promote more numerous diurnal
convection over our area early next week. Again, with only these
subtle changes in the environment, look for temperatures to be
similarly hot.

Anything to that?
Quoting 521. NCHurricaneTracker69:


If you've ever heard of a 56 mph tropical storm with a minimum pressure of 985 mbars.


Just going by the vortex from the plane. Surely looks to be strengthening to me but I am also not in the plane.


http://www.ayresassociates.com/wp-content/uploads /2015/07/Hurricane-Scale-1024x431.jpg
Quoting 519. ProgressivePulse:

Last Vortex had 56.4mph surface winds is this even a hurricane anymore?


Each Vortex is for the inbound leg of that fix, so higher winds could be in other quads of the storm.
Table 5-2. Vortex Data Message Entry Explanation
NHC calling Earl a Hurricane now...
Earl was truly able to achieve the classical hurricane inner core; CDO...quite the dangerous storm that the HWRF model correctly predicted. Thankfully there isn't much time before landfall or the impact would have been really deadly.

My thoughts and Prayers go out to the People of Belize in particular. I trust that maximum use was made of the lead time given through early warnings ahead of this system's advance through the bay of Honduras in-order to thoroughly prepare...

God Bless!
Earl looks almost just like Ernesto. It's kind of freaky.
Quoting 519. ProgressivePulse:

Last Vortex had 56.4mph surface winds is this even a hurricane anymore?


That was on the W side of the circulation. I'm sure they have stronger winds than that. No way that a 985mb Tropical Cyclone is a 54mph TS.
Recon just found some pressure readings of 981-982 mb the lowest so far (with winds in the 10-15kt range) - the vortex message will likely be a bit different. Still strengthening as it gets closer to landfall.
There is certainly a disconnect between the storm's satellite presentation/minimum pressure and its winds. Reliable flight-level winds have peaked at 68kt, whereas surface winds have reached 56kt. Neither of those values support a hurricane.

A dropsonde measured 83kt at 1969ft, but I'm not sure how that translates.
1006 mb currently at the Belize airport, wind NW 15-20, light rain. The satellite shows the comma head almost on top of them. If the eye is under there and the central pressure really is 985, it ought to be dropping fast pretty soon.
Quoting 534. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is certainly a disconnect between the storm's satellite presentation/minimum pressure and its winds. Reliable flight-level winds have peaked at 68kt, whereas surface winds have reached 56kt. Neither of those values support a hurricane.

A dropsonde measured 83kt at 1969ft, but I'm not sure how that translates.


I think it's due to the convection to a certain extent - as they were passing on the first fix, the western side was waning. Then as they passed through the northern side they found stronger winds but the convection was waning somewhat and a big blowup occured in the western part of the eye wall. Not to mention it usually takes a little while for winds to catch up as a storm deepens. The dropesonde measuring 83kts at ~2000 ft should support a 70-75kt hurricane. Certainly interesting to watch.
Latest dropsonde showed splashdown at 1004mb, with 58mph winds in the NE quadrant several miles NE of the center
Quoting 500. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

still looks ragged on Canadian sats

be an overland disp cyclone soon
may not even go out into boc
maybe its toes will tread water along the beach maybe



DEFINITELY NOT Ragged looking anymore...quite compact and classical in presentation...
Ernesto and now Earl- similar outflow appearance- something about E named storms in that region I suppose...rather interesting to observe.

Blessings!
Looking at the radar, the western eyewall is just about to move over Belize City and surrounding areas, so there should be pretty quickly deteriorating conditions there. The wind at one observation station in Belize City is 18 mph gusting to 28 mph, so nothing too impressive quite yet.
Quoting 504. Walshy:

It is very bad in the wedge of cool heavy rains across western NC...some spots will see 10-20" through tomorrow. Over 20 rescues in Statesville and currently Surry County is being smoked with over 9". I'm prepared to seek higher ground overnight as these micro showers develop and move between 0-2knots. I live in the foothills in Wilkes where its suppose to pick up late overnight as the wedge is pinched to the west.


Stay safe, Walshy.... it's been an impressively rainy summer in some areas ...
not so much in others ....
542. xcool
hurricane season getting ready go kaboom
Quoting 542. xcool:

hurricane season getting ready go kaboom


or not
Has Wunderground been experiencing problems because it still says Tropical Storm Earl.
545. beell
Quoting 526. pureet1948:




HGX pro mets say:

Early Next Week...
The GFS and Euro continue to advertise an upper trough drifting
across North Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week,
and even generating a surface reflection of low pressure in the
Euro where the feature is stronger. For what it`s worth, the
Canadian does not have this feature at all. Not even in the
stronger Euro is this low enough to bust down the ridge and move
into Texas. Despite that, it looks to make enough of a dent that
the lowering heights would again promote more numerous diurnal
convection over our area early next week. Again, with only these
subtle changes in the environment, look for temperatures to be
similarly hot.

Anything to that?


busting down the ridge and putting a dent in the heights sounds extremely violent. stay tuned...
Quoting 488. Tcwx2:

Too far out to know what kind of impact it'd have in Houston at this point. At this point it seems more likely for it to impact my area though, or more specifically (or broadly) Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and/or Louisiana. This may be a surprise system, let's just watch, shall we?


Oh, I forgot to ask, where is your area?
Quoting 529. Doom2pro:

NHC calling Earl a Hurricane now...


you are so late on that it been a hurricane for a few hrs now
Quoting 524. ecflweatherfan:

I feel bad for those in the path of Earl tonight. Gonna be a rough night ahead. From a meteorological standpoint, Earl is a thing of beauty, rather textbook if you ask me. Sprawling outflow, some 900 miles wide (from 79W to 94W), but a really tight CDO. Was looking at that Vortex report, and the big changes I have seen since checking in at 5pm, are the drop in pressure, they eye is closed completely (was open in the SW, then S), and overall structural appearance.


Good Observation and description of Hurricane Earl's current phase of strengthening...
-From being designated an invest to the present moment Earl has been quite a fascinating system to track...hopefully it will not result in being any more deadly than it has already been.

God Bless!
Quoting 487. Gearsts:


Wow thatll probably one of the strongest MJO pulses if it comes true. I hope it's not that strong when it gets into the Atlantic because it'll be arriving around peak season time.
Quoting 504. Walshy:

It is very bad in the wedge of cool heavy rains across western NC...some spots will see 10-20" through tomorrow. Over 20 rescues in Statesville and currently Surry County is being smoked with over 9". I'm prepared to seek higher ground overnight as these micro showers develop and move between 0-2knots. I live in the foothills in Wilkes where its suppose to pick up late overnight as the wedge is pinched to the west.




Wow. I grew up in the Triad. Stay safe.
Quoting 529. Doom2pro:

NHC calling Earl a Hurricane now...
Since the 8 p.m. update, I think ....
Quoting 536. BayFog:

1006 mb currently at the Belize airport, wind NW 15-20, light rain. The satellite shows the comma head almost on top of them. If the eye is under there and the central pressure really is 985, it ought to be dropping fast pretty soon.
That's a really tiny CDO, imo.... TWC talked to whoever they have on the ground in Belize City and he said about 1/2 hour ago that the rain bands have been very discrete, and also very heavy, but the wind has been negligible. He's expecting [and I agree with him] that conditions will deteriorate in a couple of hours.
On the trajectory I've seen, they'll prolly see the worst between 1 and 4 a.m. .... unless it slows down ....
Quoting 551. BahaHurican:

Since the 8 p.m. update, I think ....
That's a really tiny CDO, imo.... TWC talked to whoever they have on the ground in Belize City and he said about 1/2 hour ago that the rain bands have been very discrete, and also very heavy, but the wind has been negligible. He's expecting [and I agree with him] that conditions will deteriorate in a couple of hours.
On the trajectory I've seen, they'll prolly see the worst between 1 and 4 a.m. .... unless it slows down ....



wrong it was since 4PM
the latest recon looks like it found 80kt+ winds thats close to cat 2!
08/03/2016 0845 PM
5 miles WNW of pilot mountain, Surry County.
Flash flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.
Surry County, NC. EM reports two swift water rescues
conducted along radar Road after vehicles were swept into
the Ararat river. No human injuries reported. Extensive
damage to the Road did occur due to the flash flooding.

Levi32 , Tropical storm tidbits, nailed this system down.
Quoting 552. thetwilightzone:



wrong it was since 4PM
I read the 4 p.m. CDT discussion and they still referred to it as TS .... so I guess they forgot to change it there .... lol ....

Anyway I'll be back after a while..... got some matters to deal with before I can lounge in bed with the tablet ....
557. Tcwx2
Andalusia, AL. I'm assuming that you live in or around Houston?
Quoting 546. pureet1948:



Oh, I forgot to ask, where is your area?
Quoting 549. MrTornadochase:

Wow thatll probably one of the strongest MJO pulses if it comes true. I hope it's not that strong when it gets into the Atlantic because it'll be arriving around peak season time.


First week of September probably. Is it coincedence that the next pulse after that would be near the secondary peak of the season (mid-Oct)?
Quoting 545. beell:



busting down the ridge and putting a dent in the heights sounds extremely violent. stay tuned...



No, he said:

"Not even in the stronger Euro is this low enough to bust down the ridge and move into Texas."

The forecaster also went on to say that the possible N. Gulf low looks like it could make enough of a dent that the lowering heights would again promote more diurnal convection over the Houston region early next week.

The trouble is, NOLA pro met say that this low is forming off the tail end of an old cold front over the Carolinas. Where have Houstonians seen THAT before?
Quoting 553. all4hurricanes:

the latest recon looks like it found 80kt+ winds thats close to cat 2!


Sorry on mobile, don't have the link. How high in altitude was that reading (or was it near sea lol)?
Quoting 553. all4hurricanes:

the latest recon looks like it found 80kt+ winds thats close to cat 2!


Has asterisk next to it... Suspect data/contaminated. Although wouldn't doubt it too much. But he is running out of real estate.
Quoting 557. Tcwx2:

Andalusia, AL. I'm assuming that you live in or around Houston?


Guilty as charged. Now you see why I'm concerned about an Alicia clone.

FWIW, you're right, though. ATTM, it does look like it'll be more of a AL/MS/LA issue than a Texas one.
Recon at flight level finds 55 kt winds but SFMR records nearly 80 kts - I wonder if there is contamination from the fact that they're flying only a couple miles offshore over shallow water?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 2:20Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2016
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 1:52:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°19'N 87°21'W (17.3167N 87.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 57 statute miles (92 km) to the ESE (103°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,960m (9,711ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the N (8°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 68kts (From the SE at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south, S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) which was observed 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (36°) from the flight level center at 1:40:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66kts (~ 76.0mph) which was observed 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NW (308°) from the flight level center at 2:03:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 105° at 8kts (From the ESE at 9mph)
Quoting 560. win1gamegiantsplease:



Sorry on mobile, don't have the link. How high in altitude was that reading (or was it near sea lol)?


It was SMFR reading (contaminated), surface
Quoting 541. BahaHurican:

Stay safe, Walshy.... it's been an impressively rainy summer in some areas ...
not so much in others ....


Rob Scribbler refers to these localized extremely heavy rains as being a function of climate change.... but no one has given them a name yet. But they are happening so often now, some sort of name seems called for.

(Climate) "Change Bursts" ....?

They could be defined as xyz year events. (...say, 100 year events, or 500 year events, or whatever), for, of course, that particular geographical unit.

Anyway, it seems that there is good reason to expect that they will continue to increase in frequency and intensity until some sort of fresh stasis is achieved.
568. Tcwx2
Definitely.
Quoting 562. pureet1948:



Guilty as charged. Now you see why I'm concerned about an Alicia clone.

FWIW, you're right, though. ATTM, it does look like it'll be more of a AL/MS/LA issue than a Texas one.
Good evening, all.
Anyone want to comment on that big, swirling 'thing' approaching 45W ?
Quoting 567. Patrap:




It's going to continue its intensification right up until it hits sand. This thing is on fire.
Quoting 568. Tcwx2:

Definitely.


You willing to work with me on this one?
AF301 Mission #07 into EARL
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 02:27 UTC Aug 04, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 16.67°N 88.17°W
Bearing: 207° at 266 kt
Altitude: 3155 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 31 kt at 316°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1007.9 mb


The Belize weather bureu is stating that winds upto 54 miles per hrs were recorded in the eye wall on Halfmoon Caye
Quoting 549. MrTornadochase:

Wow thatll probably one of the strongest MJO pulses if it comes true. I hope it's not that strong when it gets into the Atlantic because it'll be arriving around peak season time.


Oh yes strong MJO please. LOL
Quoting 573. belizeit:

The Belize weather bureu is stating that winds upto 54 miles per hrs were recorded in the eye wall on Halfmoon Caye
unfortunately he seems to be wobbling WSW, which could put Belize City in the Northern Eyewall, and to my understanding, that is a very low lying city.
Quoting 534. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is certainly a disconnect between the storm's satellite presentation/minimum pressure and its winds. Reliable flight-level winds have peaked at 68kt, whereas surface winds have reached 56kt. Neither of those values support a hurricane.

A dropsonde measured 83kt at 1969ft, but I'm not sure how that translates.
Like Sandy it was not even a strong hurricane when it hit.Superstorm Sandy was named to glorify a cat 1 hurricane .
Quoting 487. Gearsts:



DOOM (tm)
Location of Half-moon Caye



581. Tcwx2
What do you mean?
Quoting 571. pureet1948:



You willing to work with me on this one?
582. MahFL
Palette six looks bad :



Quoting 577. help4u:

Like Sandy it was not even a strong hurricane when it hit.Superstorm Sandy was named to glorify a cat 1 hurricane .
When you hit a coastline populated with 40 million people, it is pretty hard to hype.
584. beell
Since Earl is stronger now, when does it start moving north?
Quoting 555. roleli:

Levi32 , Tropical storm tidbits, nailed this system down.
He is the best.
Quoting 576. Methurricanes:

unfortunately he seems to be wobbling WSW, which could put Belize City in the Northern Eyewall, and to my understanding, that is a very low lying city.
Yes the city floods easily its below sea level . I have seen sea water on hot windy days on the city street so a 20mph wind can push water into the city
Quoting 578. jeffs713:


DOOM (tm)

Looks like fun times ahead in the Western Pacific.
Quoting 573. belizeit:

The Belize weather bureu is stating that winds upto 54 miles per hrs were recorded in the eye wall on Halfmoon Caye

It's astonishing that there's even an eye at only 54 mph. Your average strong cold front has that.
Quoting 584. beell:

Since Earl is stronger now, when does it start moving north?


Nevurary 3rd. It's not going to move north. Blocking high is preventing that.
Quoting 584. beell:

Since Earl is stronger now, when does it start moving north?


First one should see a right turn blinker on ....💋
Quoting 577. help4u:

Like Sandy it was not even a strong hurricane when it hit.Superstorm Sandy was named to glorify a cat 1 hurricane .


Not sure what this has to do with what he said about Earl.
Quoting 590. Patrap:



First one should see a right turn blinker on ....%uD83D%uDC8B


Not if it's driving a BMW. I don't even think they have blinkers...
The season to date should appease those who hate fish storms. Earl will make it 5-for-5 in terms of tropical cyclone landfalls. Alex passed over Terceira, Azores in January, Bonnie moved ashore South Carolina in May, Colin made landfall in Florida in June, Danielle hit Mexico in June, and now Earl is approaching Belize in August.
594. MahFL
Quoting 577. help4u:

Like Sandy it was not even a strong hurricane when it hit.Superstorm Sandy was named to glorify a cat 1 hurricane .


The "glorified" Sandy did kill 157 people in the USA.....you don't need a cat5 to kill people.
595. MahFL
Quoting 586. belizeit:

Yes the city floods easily its below sea level . I have seen sea water on hot windy days on the city street so a 20mph wind can push water into the city


Belize city is not below sea level, it's about 6 feet above sea level, some places are lower.
Quoting 591. win1gamegiantsplease:



Not sure what this has to do with what he said about Earl.
Sandy winds were not what was projected and the winds in Earl the same according to pressure winds should be much stronger.
11pm out... Still 75mph, 984mb
Quoting 569. pottery:

Good evening, all.
Anyone want to comment on that big, swirling 'thing' approaching 45W ?

Obviously not ! :):))

I don't like the look of it......
Quoting 581. Tcwx2:

What do you mean?



maybe we don't need to. This from an earlier AFD by NOLA pro mets.

Not expecting much change in rain chances or temperatures through
the weekend. Beyond that, both ECMWF and GFS eventually take a
piece of the southern end of the east coast upper trof westward
toward Louisiana next week. This will bring better rain chances
and temperatures a few degrees less miserable to the area at some
point. ECMWF is slightly quicker to do this on Tuesday, with the
GFS pointing more at Wednesday or a little later. Will not make
much change for now. 35


I would think that if it did become a TC, New Orleans would take the hit. You agree?
Quoting 565. ecflweatherfan:



It was SMFR reading (contaminated), surface


Cool thanks. But if it is near 980 mb I'd imagine 70 kt or so is fair
601. MahFL
The eye of Earl continues to shrink as he approaches landfall, not good for Belize City :

You can't just use maximum winds and pressure to determine how much impact a system will have.. Size of wind field and many other factors determines that. Some Cat 1's can have minimal impact while others can be devastating.
Earl's swirl is mesmerizing 
Quoting 575. Patrap:



604. Tcwx2
Oh absolutely.
Quoting 599. pureet1948:




Share with me any updates, or info you get on this likely Gulf storm.
Quoting 602. centex:

You can't just use maximum winds and pressure to determine how much impact a system will have.. Size of wind field and many other factors determines that. Some Cat 1's can have minimal impact while others can be devastating.


Fortunately, most of the Cat 1's that hit Houston have had minimal impact.
980.9mb and that's a wrap.

025400 1720N 08739W 6963 03001 9809 +146 +118 093028 030 012 001 00
Quoting 596. help4u:

Sandy winds were not what was projected and the winds in Earl the same according to pressure winds should be much stronger.


I must be missing something. Sandy had the lowest landfalling pressure north of Cape Hatteras tying the 1938 hurricane. Someone stated that the dropsonde was in the western eyewall, might not be representative of what the east winds are packing.
Quoting 595. MahFL:



Belize city is not below sea level, it's about 6 feet above sea level, some places are lower.


Bold move to argue against a local.

Quoting 593. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The season to date should appease those who hate fish storms. Earl will make it 5-for-5 in terms of tropical cyclone landfalls. Alex passed over Terceira, Azores in January, Bonnie moved ashore South Carolina in May, Colin made landfall in Florida in June, Danielle hit Mexico in June, and now Earl is approaching Belize in August.


5 hits on 5 different countries. Pretty good. (yes yes, I'm considering Florida it's own country).

Quoting 551. BahaHurican:

Since the 8 p.m. update, I think ....
That's a really tiny CDO, imo.... TWC talked to whoever they have on the ground in Belize City and he said about 1/2 hour ago that the rain bands have been very discrete, and also very heavy, but the wind has been negligible. He's expecting [and I agree with him] that conditions will deteriorate in a couple of hours.
On the trajectory I've seen, they'll prolly see the worst between 1 and 4 a.m. .... unless it slows down ....



Was it this guy? His twitter feed mentioned he was to speak with TWC.
Quoting 601. MahFL:

The eye of Earl continues to shrink as he approaches landfall, not good for Belize City :




It's running out of deep warm water. Shallow water is essentially as good as landfall. Can't extract too much energy from the shallows. TCHP drops off sharply (not non-existent however).
Quoting 577. help4u:

Like Sandy it was not even a strong hurricane when it hit.Superstorm Sandy was named to glorify a cat 1 hurricane .

Or because it was the largest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history (the Great Lakes recorded storm surges to put that Into perspective) took a
right turn then veered left into NJ while combining with a extra tropical system to create the second costliest natural disaster in US history and killed 157 people. By the way Mitch was a cat 1 at landfall and killed 20000 people so cat1 doesn't mean no impact
Bucking what your told to be true. Going back to "Satellite appearance", Earl looks like a strong tropical storm on it's way to become a hurricane.
981 mbs. Looks like my sub 980 call may happen. More WSW by appearances.
613. Ed22
Quoting 575. Patrap:


Earl could get to 80 or 85 mph before landfall around 1 or 2 am Thursday morning, pressure falling around 985 to 980 mbs shows that the Hurricane is strengthening right through till Landfall.
Quoting 610. MrTornadochase:


Or because it was the largest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history (the Great Lakes recorded storm surges to put that Into perspective) took a right turn then veered left into NJ while combining with a extra tropical system to create the second costliest natural disaster in US history and killed 157 people.


Makes you think just how nasty Katrina was. Twice as many died in Mississippi alone than the entire US from Sandy (the official number is 117 [Link] and Mississippi lost 238 [Link] in comparison) and the layman probably forgot that it hit them as bad as Louisiana. The tragedy in NOLA took center stage.
615. Ed22
Quoting 606. TropicalAnalystwx13:

980.9mb and that's a wrap.

025400 1720N 08739W 6963 03001 9809 +146 +118 093028 030 012 001 00
what does that mean those numbers.
618. MahFL
Someone on the internet who claims to live somewhere can be faking it :
This elevation map shows most of Belize city is at about 6 feet above sea level :



Quoting 616. Patrap:



Check the loop on that Pat. At 45W.
Impressive upper level stuff going on....
621. Ed22
Quoting 617. Patrap:


84 knots.
Quoting 606. TropicalAnalystwx13:

980.9mb and that's a wrap.

025400 1720N 08739W 6963 03001 9809 +146 +118 093028 030 012 001 00


I was expecting 978 at landfall but this may be the last pass. Landfall pressure may have to come from shore obs but Earl still has time to get there.
Quoting 619. pottery:


Check the loop on that Pat. At 45W.
Impressive upper level stuff going on....


Been keeping one eye on it too.👍
Quoting 577. help4u:

Like Sandy it was not even a strong hurricane when it hit.Superstorm Sandy was named to glorify a cat 1 hurricane .

No you are wrong. Sandy was post tropical. Though post tropical, it still did a lot of damage where I am in the form of wind.
There was no wind.
Right now I am at my grandparents house. I can see how bad winston was there.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 3:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5301
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2016
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 25
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 2:52:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°15'N 87°37'W (17.25N 87.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 42 statute miles (68 km) to the ESE (115°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,961m (9,715ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSW (198°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 296° at 47kts (From the WNW at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSW (198°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south, S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (329°) from the flight level center at 2:58:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 15° at 5kts (From the NNE at 6mph)
Quoting 622. kmanislander:



I was expecting 978 at landfall but this may be the last pass. Landfall pressure may have to come from shore obs but Earl still has time to get there.

It actually looks like they're getting ready to make a 5th pass.
Quoting 624. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


No you are wrong. Sandy was post tropical. Though post tropical, it still did a lot of damage where I am in the form of wind.
There was no wind.
Right now I am at my granparents house. I can see howbad winston was there.


My uncle was in SI at the time, he said there was very little rain. Wind however was not in short supply.
Belize radar indicates that eye is just about to move onto the Turneffe Atoll.
631. MahFL
983, a slight jog to the WSW, worse possible outcome :

Eye contracted to 12mi from 20mi since the last reading.
The residents of Belize, especially the capital, hopefully have taken all precautions. It is hard to believe that the capital was built over swampy marsh lands, with some areas still close to a foot under sea level, and two main rivers flowing within the city district. From what I can gather, it sounds like it was originally settled as a temporary location, and was not intended to be a permanent location because of high water table. Now it is a recipe for a disaster.....
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It actually looks like they're getting ready to make a 5th pass.



Yes but they are not using the lowest pressure found for the vortex messages. Seems to be SOP.
Pressures falling, eye tightening.... Good thing Earl didn't have another 24 hours or so over water. Hopefully the damage from Earl won't be too bad and that all in its path are ready and prepared for it.
637. MahFL
Quoting 633. ProgressivePulse:

Eye contracted to 12mi from 20mi since the last reading.


Yikes.
Quoting 634. cheeksdr:

The residents of Belize, especially the capital, hopefully have taken all precautions. It is hard to believe that the capital was built over swampy marsh lands, with some areas still close to a foot under sea level, and two main rivers flowing within the city district. From what I can gather, it sounds like it was originally settled as a temporary location, and was not intended to be a permanent location because of high water table. Now it is a recipe for a disaster.....


Belize City is the largest city at the most risk, the capital is actually further inland. Not that it won't be stormy there of course.
641. MahFL
Quoting 634. cheeksdr:

The residents of Belize, especially the capital, hopefully have taken all precautions.


The last hurricane to hit Belize City only caused one death, I think they are ready.

"The hurricane killed one and did about $80 million in damage".

The cane is NOT hitting Miami Dade county, lol.....
Quoting 639. Stormchaser2007:




Don't think that little island is doing anything to stop him
Quoting 599. pureet1948:




maybe we don't need to. This from an earlier AFD by NOLA pro mets.

Not expecting much change in rain chances or temperatures through
the weekend. Beyond that, both ECMWF and GFS eventually take a
piece of the southern end of the east coast upper trof westward
toward Louisiana next week. This will bring better rain chances
and temperatures a few degrees less miserable to the area at some
point. ECMWF is slightly quicker to do this on Tuesday, with the
GFS pointing more at Wednesday or a little later. Will not make
much change for now. 35


I would think that if it did become a TC, New Orleans would take the hit. You agree?

Calling for a landfall location for a storm that may or may not form. Your move NHC...
644. MahFL
Quoting 642. win1gamegiantsplease:



Don't think that little island is doing anything to stop him


Wow, look how much the CDO cooled.
Quoting 632. Patrap:




Great Scott
Earl is probably at 90mph now
is the report of 75kt surface winds in that last pass good?
Imagine what 24 more hours would have done...


Wow earl looking impressive

Not looking good for Belize

Earl is big

I have not see a good looking hurricane or storm in the Caribbean like this in years
Quoting 647. all4hurricanes:

is the report of 75kt surface winds in that last pass good?


Still showed as contaminated/suspect. Although I think it's feasible based on what is happening on satellite imagery. But, they (NHC) reject suspect/contaminated data.
I'm smh as to why there is no invest tag on the wave @ 45W.
Quoting 648. Stormchaser2007:

Imagine what 24 more hours would have done...





Shoot... 24 hours?!? Even just 6 hours. Probably a major if it had 24 hours.
Quoting 618. MahFL:
Someone on the internet who claims to live somewhere can be faking it :
This elevation map shows most of Belize city is at about 6 feet above sea level :

The elevations are in meters according to the scale. If correct, that puts most of Belize City well above 6 feet.

Looks to be paralleling the coastline, wouldn't be good as the center would be over water longer, although that might result in a sparsely populated landfall, albeit stronger.
Earl is impressive.
Belize radar shows a SW dive on the last couple frames. Sheesh. And possibly a little slower as well.
978.0

034530 1720N 08744W 6968 03001 9780 183 061 083037 039 008 001 00
658. MahFL
Quoting 654. Articuno:


Looks to be paralleling the coastline, wouldn't be good as the center would be over water longer, although that might result in a sparsely populated landfall, albeit stronger.


What the heck are you talking about ?
Earl is heading almost due west directly into Belize City.
978 found and still over water !
HDOB showing 978 pressure?!? Yikes
Quoting 657. TropicalAnalystwx13:

034530 1720N 08744W 6968 03001 9780 +183 +061 083037 039 008 001 00


Wow, 978 mb! Strengthening right up until landfall.
Quoting 658. MahFL:



What the heck are you talking about ?
Earl is heading almost due west directly into Belize City.

Well, I do see a southern motion in the last few frames, although it might be short-lived.
Radar is showing the storm really improving in the last 2 hrs
978 makes Earl the strongest storm this year
So, according to radar, Belize City is now to the east of the western eyewall. Highest winds up until now 32 mph gusting to 42 mph at the station I'm following in Belize City. I wonder if the eastern eyewall will at least bring sustained tropical storm conditions.
Quoting 659. kmanislander:

978 found and still over water !


Making that push to 80 kt, still 75 km away from Belize City
666. MahFL
Quoting 664. HurrMichaelOrl:

So, according to radar, Belize City is now to the east of the western eyewall. Highest winds up until now 32 mph gusting to 42 mph at the station I'm following in Belize City. I wonder if the eastern eyewall will at least bring sustained tropical storm conditions.


The western eye wall is not yet at Belize City.

Quoting 651. scott39:

I'm smh as to why there is no invest tag on the wave @ 45W.


You know I wonder that my self new surface chart puts a sfc low on that wave too
Still diving to the WSW.
Quoting 656. ecflweatherfan:

Belize radar shows a SW dive on the last couple frames. Sheesh. And possibly a little slower as well.


Actually looked like an optical illusion, as convection fires around the eye, kinda distorted it. Slightly south of west does look like a good call, but I definitely say stronger.
Quoting 665. win1gamegiantsplease:



Making that push to 80 kt, still 75 km away from Belize City


Earl is doing what I expected; strengthening right up until landfall. 11 mb drop from this afternoon and a chance for another couple of mbs.
Quoting 659. kmanislander:

978 found and still over water !


Hey Kman how are you

Quoting 662. belizeit:

Radar is showing the storm really improving in the last 2 hrs


Hey I was wondering if you are on how are you how are things you way

Quoting 664. HurrMichaelOrl:

So, according to radar, Belize City is now to the east of the western eyewall. Highest winds up until now 32 mph gusting to 42 mph at the station I'm following in Belize City. I wonder if the eastern eyewall will at least bring sustained tropical storm conditions.
Most weather stations are just direct readings of forcast so just watch out which weather station you look at . I would only trust the Phillip Goldson International Airport
Quoting 667. wunderkidcayman:



You know I wonder that my self new surface chart puts a sfc low on that wave too
Remembered the have been ultra conservatives, so far, this year, ....
Quoting 666. MahFL:



The western eye wall is not yet at Belize City.




I thought the western eyewall was the "blue and green" convection, shown as a circle around the eye on Doppler radar(?). If this is correct, Belize city is already in the clear area (the eye) east of the western eyewall.
Quoting 671. wunderkidcayman:



Hey Kman how are you



Hey I was wondering if you are on how are you how are things you way




Pretty good. Getting ready to turn in. If the track had maintained WNW this would have become a much worse scenario with more time over water clear of land. Storm surge in the GOH could still prove to be a big problem as the water is piled up with nowhere to go.
Earl's pressure is falling quickly this evening, but there is no response from winds. Data supports a minimal hurricane still.
Quoting 671. wunderkidcayman:



Hey Kman how are you



Hey I was wondering if you are on how are you how are things you way


I am further inland listning on the radio to news reports . So far sign and roofs are flying in belize city and trees are down on the highways
Quoting 672. belizeit:

Most weather stations are just direct readings of forcast so just watch out which weather station you look at . I would only trust the Phillip Goldson International Airport


Thank you, I will check out the airport observations. At the very least, a lot (most) personal weather stations are not sited properly to measure accurate wind speeds.
Quoting 676. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Earl's pressure is falling quickly this evening, but there is no response from winds. Data supports a minimal hurricane still.


2 reasons for that. 1. The pressure is dropping fast enough that the winds can't catch up.
2. Most of that pressure drop is being transformed into size rather than strength.
680. MahFL
Quoting 674. HurrMichaelOrl:



I thought the western eyewall was the "blue and green" convection, shown as a circle around the eye on Doppler radar(?). If this is correct, Belize city is already in the clear area (the eye) east of the western eyewall.


No, that was just one of the outer/middle bands.
The real deal is about to happen in the next 2 or 3 hours.
Quoting 679. SSL1441:



2 reasons for that. 1. The pressure is dropping fast enough that the winds can't catch up.
2. Most of that pressure drop is being transformed into size rather than strength.


Wind lags a pressure fall. Not enough time for the winds to respond.
Each pass the pressure is dropping by 1mb (according to the vortex message)... 1mb per half hour approx. or, to put that in perspective 48mb/day... Crap!
Quoting 675. kmanislander:



Pretty good. Getting ready to turn in. If the track had maintained WNW this would have become a much worse scenario with more time over water clear of land. Storm surge in the GOH could still prove to be a big problem as the water is piled up with nowhere to go.


Yep

Quoting 677. belizeit:

I am further inland listning on the radio to news reports . So far sign and roofs are flying in belize city and trees are down on the highways


Well that's good



Quoting 681. kmanislander:



Wind lags a pressure fall. Not enough time for the winds to respond.


Exactly. especially when it falls this quickly.
Aircraft going back in again. You really have to give those guys a lot of credit.
686. MahFL
Quoting 679. SSL1441:



2 reasons for that. 1. The pressure is dropping fast enough that the winds can't catch up.
2. Most of that pressure drop is being transformed into size rather than strength.


Correct, it normally takes 12 to 18 hours for the wind speed to catch up, but Earl is only 2 or 3 hours from landfall and 2/5 of Earl is actually over land now.
Wow most recent pass recon fines 978mb

And recon is relentless they going back in for 6th pass
And eye temp up to 19C at almost 10000 ft. It was around 15-16C at that height earlier.
Quoting 683. wunderkidcayman:



Yep



Well that's good




If your smarter than me you can listen live to the radio on the internet just google Love FM thats the station i am listning to
Quoting 685. kmanislander:

Aircraft going back in again. You really have to give those guys a lot of credit.


that's the Air Force for ya. They have to have external tanks on that plane...
Quoting 685. kmanislander:

Aircraft going back in again. You really have to give those guys a lot of credit.


That's the Airforce for yah lol
977.9 with 15 knot winds that pass.
Quoting 690. SSL1441:



that's the Air Force for ya. They have to have external tanks on that plane...


Lol I just said that to him lol
USAF mission should conclude once Earl makes landfall...

Or until they hit "E" on the reserve tanks.
Quoting 643. gator23:


Calling for a landfall location for a storm that may or may not form. Your move NHC...



I was just speculating. BUT----ECMWF members give 50% of TD forming between New Orleans and FL panhandle
Quoting 692. SSL1441:

977.9 with 15 knot winds that pass.


And that after a quick turn around by the plane. This close to land may make that the last pass but who knows. They are really doing some flying tonight.
Quoting 694. Stormchaser2007:

USAF mission should conclude once Earl makes landfall...

Or until they hit "E" on the reserve tanks.


We can gas them up here :-)
Belize airport - wind has picked up to 34 mph from the north, gust to 46, pressure down to 1001 mb, rain. Eye/center must be near to their east.
10:00 pm CDT winds at the airport in Belize City were 35 mph, gusting to 46 mph. If and when the 11 pm observation becomes available, that should better indicate how bad conditions are.
That's it for me tonight. I hope everyone in the path of Earl stays safe.
Uncontaminated 77.8 mph, 67.6kt, winds found in the southern quadrant
NHC didn't mark a 69kt surface measurement as contaminated.

Looks like Earl may have dipped a bit to the west southwest.
It's interesting to see on the radar the lack of the western eye wall. it seems like Earl is trying to close it up but there may be just to much dry air from earlier today entrained in the system.
To all Face Book users you can run a search on face book for Love FM - News and Music Power to see some live footage being uploaded
Earl getting close to landfall, let's hope people in Belize stay safe. Looks like it should peak around 80 mph right before landfall.
Link San Pedro https://www.facebook.com/LoveFMNewsandMusicPower/v ideos/538488563023685/
Quoting 697. kmanislander:



We can gas them up here :-)


It has happened before
lol...wouldn't be surprised if Earl is a close to being a C2 hurricane by now...
how about some 80 knot winds? Dropsonde pressure around 977.8
81kt flight-level, highest measurement so far. Wouldn't be surprised to see Earl inched up to 70kt at 2am.
Quoting 712. HurricaneFan:

lol...


Is that real?
edit: They seem to be contaminated.
Quoting 608. Astrometeor:



Was it this guy? His twitter feed mentioned he was to speak with TWC.
Yeah... had to find a pic where he had face hair to be sure .... lol .
Quoting 610. MrTornadochase:


Or because it was the largest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history (the Great Lakes recorded storm surges to put that Into perspective) took a
right turn then veered left into NJ while combining with a extra tropical system to create the second costliest natural disaster in US history and killed 157 people. By the way Mitch was a cat 1 at landfall and killed 20000 people so cat1 doesn't mean no impact
Hit the same general area, too.
Quoting 640. win1gamegiantsplease:



Belize City is the largest city at the most risk, the capital is actually further inland. Not that it won't be stormy there of course.
They actually moved the capital from Belize to Belmopan because of the hurricane vulnerability.
SMFR flagged 117kt winds or after reduction factor flagged 92.8kt, peak flight level unflagged 81kt
980mb dropsonde w/ 11kt surface winds supports a minimum pressure of 979mb.
Quoting 715. Bobbyweather:


Is that real?

Yes, but I don't see any way that there could be 115-knot winds...some sort of contamination, although I don't see much rain going on at the time...but it's possible we see Earl's intensity increased a bit at 2AM.
720. Siker
Gotta love that 117kt SFMR screwing up the scale on Levi's graph.
721. MahFL
The "finger of death" points at Belize City :

Quoting 708. HurricaneFan:

Earl getting close to landfall, let's hope people in Belize stay safe. Looks like it should peak around 80 mph right before landfall.
Looks like it's tightening up nicely even as it makes landfall ....
Quoting 712. HurricaneFan:

lol...wouldn't be surprised if Alex is a close to being a C2 hurricane by now...



You mean Earl?
Quoting 723. Articuno:



You mean Earl?

yeah lol
I want to stay up to see the landfall, but I gotta get up early in the morning....
:o\
I'll take the tablet to bed, but if I go silent halfway through a comment ya'll know what happened ....
85kt flight level. Winds are starting to respond.

044000 1746N 08755W 6967 03092 0006 +098 +098 103083 085 059 013 00
I would give mad props to the Air Force if they could re-fuel a hurricane hunter mid-flight in a hurricane like they do for the fighter/bombers in the wars.
flight level winds a bit higher, at 85 kt
95 knot winds there.... wow...
730. MahFL
Quoting 725. BahaHurican:

I want to stay up to see the landfall, but I gotta get up early in the morning....
:o\
I'll take the tablet to bed, but if I go silent halfway through a comment ya'll know what happened ....


Me too, 6 am start, ug.
Recon clearly supports upgrading Earl to around 80-85 mph.
ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS EARL NOW HAS 80 MPH WINDS...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Earl have increased to near 80
mph (130 km/h). The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the
next couple of hours near Belize City, Belize.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven


NNNN
Quoting 731. HurricaneFan:

Recon clearly supports upgrading Earl to around 80-85 mph.


funny you should mention that because....
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS EARL NOW HAS 80 MPH WINDS...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Earl have increased to near 80
mph (130 km/h). The hurricane is expected to make landfall in the
next couple of hours near Belize City, Belize.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 716. BahaHurican:

Yeah... had to find a pic where he had face hair to be sure .... lol .
Hit the same general area, too.
They actually moved the capital from Belize to Belmopan because of the hurricane vulnerability.



It's just became Aug 4 and I've already learned something today.
Well, with Earl's pressure falling to 979 mbar, Earl is now the strongest storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season in terms of central pressure.
Looks like the Air force is out. a job well done to that crew.
Quoting 731. HurricaneFan:

Recon clearly supports upgrading Earl to around 80-85 mph.


Good call! They are pegging it at 80MPH right now
Quoting 734. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Late.


Welcome to the club.


Steering still points to a landfall keeping Earl South of the BOC.
It's August 4 and already the Atlantic is up to 5-2-0 for the season. Some of you were saying that the season was going to be slow after a slow July, but keep this in mind- we are ahead in terms of activity to-date compared to a lot of seasons that eventually ended up active. Here are some examples: 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2004. With this in mind, it is still very likely that this season will turn out active
Quoting 740. yankees440:



Steering still points to a landfall keeping Earl South of the BOC.


Its remnants are given a chance to develop in the Pacific, as per final paragraph
Quoting 742. win1gamegiantsplease:



Its remnants are given a chance to develop in the Pacific, as per final paragraph


My bigger concern is the chance Earl gets back over water again (BOC) and strengthens again, per a few of the models. I am wondering what these few models are seeing of that ridge that would allow this storm to get so far North?
Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes..




It's a miracle Earl didn't have an extra six hours over water...
Belize airport - Wind NNE at 34 mph, gust to 58. Pressure dropping faster, down to 992 mb. Rain.

The eye appears to be passing just south of the station, about to make landfall.
747. IDTH
Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes..



The white colors can't help but make me think of West pacific typhoons and how tall the thunderstorm tops are.
Bad news for Belize city, Looks as if the eye will make landfall just south. The eye clearly has been shrinking over the last two hours meaning Belize city is right now in the northern eye wall. Very lucky this thing didn't have another 6-12 hours over water or we may have easily been looking at a cat 3+.
It's already on land!
Went over some barrier island a little while ago.


Quoting 730. MahFL:



Me too, 6 am start, ug.
The radio station in Belize City went dead things are getting bad 40miles inland
751. IDTH
By the way, Levi absolutely nailed this forecast from top to bottom if anyone get track of his twitter feed and his video updates. From the southward pull to the storm's increase in size, I've never learned so much in one forecast.

Earl is definitely looking formidable and we should all be glad this did not have more time over water.
Quoting 744. yankees440:



My bigger concern is the chance Earl gets back over water again (BOC) and strengthens again, per a few of the models. I am wondering what these few models are seeing of that ridge that would allow this storm to get so far North?



Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.
The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the
south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure
system. Little change has been made to the previous official
forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the
multi-model consensus.

After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global
models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much
larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico
in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to
copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches
possible.


Some are thankful it didn't adhere to earlier chances of hitting the Yucatan amd crossing the BOC

Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes..



Looks like a cat 2 or maybe a weak cat 3.
Kinda regretting not going to Belize for Earl now. I'd prefer something stronger, but I'm down for an intensifying Category 1 right at the coast. Not missing my next chance.
Well, that doesn't appear to be an enhanced V signature...

Hmm eye is tightening on radar

Also on radar looks to move SW then SE maybe it's doing the loop de loops hmm not sure that just odd
Quoting 756. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm eye is tightening on radar

Also on radar looks to move SW then SE maybe it's doing the loop de loops hmm not sure that just odd


Ok now just ragged eye moving W

Quoting 755. 1900hurricane:

Well, that doesn't appear to be an enhanced V signature...




But it does have an eye visible on satellite now
Looks like it's starting to make landfall now
...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY...
Seems to have come to a stop.
Well I guess you don't ride a motor cycle.
If you do, take a ride down the freeway at about 90, for an hour or two, no helmet, windshield, and goggles. This would be comparable to a high cat 1 .
Oops, you need bag of sand to dispense in front of your face as well if you want the true effects of a landfall at the beach.

Quoting 754. KoritheMan:

Kinda regretting not going to Belize for Earl now. I'd prefer something stronger, but I'm down for an intensifying Category 1 right at the coast. Not missing my next chance.
Belize airport - Wind now from the East at 35 mph, gust to 58. Pressure down to 988 mb. Heavy rain.
Quoting 751. IDTH:

By the way, Levi absolutely nailed this forecast from top to bottom if anyone get track of his twitter feed and his video updates. From the southward pull to the storm's increase in size, I've never learned so much in one forecast.

Earl is definitely looking formidable and we should all be glad this did not have more time over water.


Very true Earl would have been on its way to becoming a monster Hurricane, thank God. Its dangerous enough as it is already.

God Bless!
Quoting 743. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes..




That says a whole lot about this system...it really had extreme strengthening potential. Surface observations should be interesting as well.

Blessings!
766. IDTH

Hurricane Earl looks very well organized and is currently impact Belize as we speak. Hoping everyone stays safe over there.

Impressive outflow occurring right now.

Read our blog post here
Pressure is down to 999.3 in Spanish Lookout Cayo . You hear the train roar outside
Quoting 751. IDTH:

By the way, Levi absolutely nailed this forecast from top to bottom if anyone get track of his twitter feed and his video updates. From the southward pull to the storm's increase in size, I've never learned so much in one forecast.

Earl is definitely looking formidable and we should all be glad this did not have more time over water.


Levi is one of the few forecasters here that still has my respect. We had many debates here over the years, and nerdy analysis of model runs.
Pressure is down to 998.2 Mb Roof starting to fall apart
Quoting 741. lobdelse81:

It's August 4 and already the Atlantic is up to 5-2-0 for the season. Some of you were saying that the season was going to be slow after a slow July, but keep this in mind- we are ahead in terms of activity to-date compared to a lot of seasons that eventually ended up active. Here are some examples: 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2004. With this in mind, it is still very likely that this season will turn out active


Nobody here cares about evidence. Don't waste your breath. I only still come here for the social interaction. The people here are good.
Quoting 14. IDTH:


Size really expanded with Earl.

Hit the nail right on the head with that.
Plus look at the development off the lower west coast very dark red now.
Sorry I cant get the chart or map to post.
I really appreciate what storm chasers do for us they go and gather real facts that would otherwise be lost for ever .
Quoting 770. belizeit:

Pressure is down to 998.2 Mb Roof starting to fall apart


Sorry to hear that. Stay safe!
Trying to get a moving picture of what is happening to post.

To me it Looks like the eye is between Roockvill and the Capital Belmopan . Am i seeing it correctly ?
Quoting 770. belizeit:

Pressure is down to 998.2 Mb Roof starting to fall apart


Stay SAFE AND TAKE COVER IF THINGS GET WORSE...Protection of life is paramount...

God Bless!
Quoting 780. NatureIsle:



Stay SAFE AND TAKE COVER IF THINGS GET WORSE...Protection of life is paramount...

God Bless!
Thank you . To bad my wind meter is behind trees but i got reports of 50mph from someone else . My one is showing only gusting to 32.4
Stay safe everyone.

Seems like Hurricane season is ramping up.
Quoting 782. Dakster:

Stay safe everyone.

Seems like Hurricane season is ramping up.


nop its dead models show nothing for the next 14 days and we all know they don't change with initialization no sir
Quoting 784. KoritheMan:



nop its dead models show nothing for the next 14 days and we all know they don't change with initialization no sir


but you got Earl....
Pressure is down to 995.2MB and my light is flickering so i am not sure how much longer i will be able to update . Looks like center will pass close to my location Spanish Lookout Belize
Thoughts and Prayers with those Most affected in Belize. Stay safe during the Aftermath as well.

Also, Ex 96L bringing some sharp rounds of showers to the Lesser Antilles... Friday should be interesting as well with the approach of the other disturbance not too far off.

God Bless!
Quoting 786. Dakster:



but you got Earl....


dont matter models dont change. can u say quit sesaon
Quoting 788. NatureIsle:

Thoughts and Prayers with those Most affected in Belize. Stay safe during the Aftermath as well.

Also, Ex 96L bringing some sharp rounds of showers to the Lesser Antilles... Friday should be interesting as well with the approach of the other disturbance not too far off.

God Bless!


I still haven't completely given up on that disturbance yet.
Pressure is down to 994.0 mb winds out of the west at 35 MPH
Earl apparently kept its eye form formation as seen on satellite imagery even well after landfalling...quite unique. Fortunately, there was no more time for intensification.

Blessings!
Quoting 790. KoritheMan:



I still haven't completely given up on that disturbance yet.


Indeed, were're keeping a close eye on these Atlantic systems...we've had our fair share of disturbances that have given us an unpleasant surprise and rude awakening- whether they're NHC classified or not.

God Bless!
The pressure is now down to 992.9 if National Hurricane center has the forward speed right than in one hr it shhould be at its closest point to me
Quoting 794. belizeit:

The pressure is now down to 992.9 if National Hurricane center has the forward speed right than in one hr it shhould be at its closest point to me

Thanks for the consistent updates...Be sure to keep aware of your surroundings during the landfall of this system- I hope you are not in a flood prone area in case the precipitation remains intense at its closest approach...

Blessings!
Quoting 794. belizeit:

The pressure is now down to 992.9 if National Hurricane center has the forward speed right than in one hr it shhould be at its closest point to me

Also, Is there any word coming out of Belize City and environs...or have most broadcasts been disabled due to the storm?

God Bless!
The pressure is still going down now its at 992.0
Quoting 796. NatureIsle:


Also, Is there any word coming out of Belize City and environs...or have most broadcasts been disabled due to the storm?

God Bless!
Radio went dead so this is all i got to go by for info on the rest of the country Link
Quoting 797. belizeit:

The pressure is still going down now its at 992.0


Stay Alert and take all necessary precautions just in case...hope for the best yet prepare for the worst. Mother nature can throw surprise punches!

God Bless!
Quoting 798. belizeit:

Radio went dead so this is all i got to go by for info on the rest of the country Link


Thanks for the info/ data and the link...seem like a critical situation in some cases. Let's hope that a break from the onslaught of hurricane/ storm conditions comes soon and that the light of day will arrive quickly to aid recovery efforts! Be strong at heart- this too shall pass, & know that the rest of the Caribbean family certainly stands ready to assist & re-build...

God Bless & God Bless Belize!
Quoting 800. NatureIsle:



Thanks for the info/ data and the link...seem like a critical situation in some cases. Let's hope that a break from the onslaught of hurricane/ storm conditions comes soon and that the light of day will arrive quickly to aid recovery efforts! Be strong at heart- this too shall pass, & know that the rest of the Caribbean family certainly stands ready to assist & re-build...

God Bless & God Bless Belize!
Thank you . Thishurricane is hitting Belize corn belt so the damage will be in the millions .
Pressure is down to 991.00 MB still blowing hard but more steady
Good morning. Checking what happened with Earl and Belize.

In case you didn't follow Morgerman's twitter feed, here is the latest:


Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone 18 Min.Vor 18 Minuten
2 am. Wind has lost its bite. Surge is slooowly receding. 999 mb. #Hurricane #EARL is pulling away from #Belize City

Two hours ago with video:
Josh Morgerman ‏@iCyclone 2 Std.Vor 2 Stunden
Trapped on 2nd floor. Windows steamed from so many people crammed in.. View of street. #BelizeCity under water.#EARL
Quoting 801. belizeit:

Thank you . Thishurricane is hitting Belize corn belt so the damage will be in the millions .


You're most welcome! Let's pray for a quick rebound for the economy as much as possible... & Most Importantly Let's hope and Pray that there is no loss of life due to Earl.

Blessings!
Quoting 802. belizeit:

Pressure is down to 991.00 MB still blowing hard but more steady

Thank you for the flow of reports! Very appreciated. Best wishes and stay safe!
Quoting 804. NatureIsle:



You're most welcome! Let's pray for a quick rebound for the economy as much as possible... & Most Importantly Let's hope and Pray that there is no loss of life due to Earl.

Blessings!
So far i belive one death has been reported .
I saved the latest recon path (mission 7 by Air Force) right before Earl's landfall. Epic!


Click to enlarge. Source.
Pressure is at 989.9 we are having some furious winds now so i think the eye must be close

Source.


Source.

Have to go. Best possible of a day, everyone!
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016

The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City,
Belize near 0600 UTC. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85
kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central
pressure near 979 mb. Based on these data, the landfall intensity
is estimated to have been 70 kt. The initial intensity for this
advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land.

The initial motion is 275/13. A high pressure ridge to the north
of the tropical cyclone should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next three days or so. There is some
spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of
the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche. The ECMWF and the
GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over
water. The UKMET shows a more westward motion, which would keep the
center over southeastern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche. The
new forecast track is closer to the GFS and ECMWF in having the
center traverse the southern Bay of Campeche between 36-48 hours.
Overall, the new track is an update of the previous track that lies
near the various consensus models.

Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it
is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center
reaches the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is forecast to spend less
than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no
re-intensification during that time. After 48 hours, Earl or its
remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which
should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It
should be noted that several global models forecast the development
of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the
next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with
the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of
Earl.


The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the
system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre
that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days.
This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with
isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 17.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 18.6N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 19.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW
96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
Current pressure 989.0 Looks like the NHC has the storm pretty much where i would have also placed it
Pressure down to 987.9 still waiting for the wind to shift to tell me its moving away
It's been three hours since landfall, but as belizeit is reporting, Earl has weakened little. The satellite representation doesn't seem to resemble that of a weakening tropical cyclone yet.
Finally the electricity got knocked out .
Presuure is now down to 987.0 cant be long now till we have that wind shift our the eye . It sure is rough outside
Down to 986.0 the center should have passed already but it has not still got north winds
Pressure is down to 985 and i think i am seeing a wind shift from NW TO NE
Pressure down to 984 lots of noise on the roof

updating


Saved current radar loop. Source.
982.8 just gwtting worst outside . Hoping the roof will hold
Down to 981.4 so we are lowere than NHC was forcasting it . Branches are being propelled against the house
One hr till Daylight
Lowest presure so far 981.2 winds have now changed to oposit direction
Pressure is definatly rising so we will soon be out of it .
still no rain but nws. melb. says today is the day "much of the forecast area stands to see their best
chance of wetting rains in several weeks with PoPs generally around
60%.". hope our friends in belize make it through. the unruly need to stay on their side of the town.
Quoting 823. belizeit:

Lowest presure so far 981.2 winds have now changed to oposit direction
Best news on the page...
Stay safe, friend......
ex invest is creeping west and is bubbling up. i think its the ex that makes a comeback and not the tropical wave.
Quoting 827. islander101010:

ex invest is creeping west and is bubbling up. i think its the ex that makes a comeback and not the tropical wave.
I'm still watching that exis 96L ......
remember the euro about 100 hrs ago? if not at 120 it had a low near the windwards. this is the ex not the tw.
Quoting 823. belizeit:

Lowest presure so far 981.2 winds have now changed to oposit direction
Looks like the worst of it passed just to the south of Belize City .... though flooding there seemed fairly extensive in the area where the Morgerman felllow was staying ....
jb mentioned on his clip a couple days ago watch the ne gulf. well convection is moving over that warm water.

Doesn't look like it's falling apart much ....
Quoting 832. Chicklit:


Morning, Chick .... is that a liddle rain cloud heading toward the E CFL coast ????
Quoting 825. islander101010:

still no rain but nws. melb. says today is the day "much of the forecast area stands to see their best
chance of wetting rains in several weeks with PoPs generally around
60%.". hope our friends in belize make it through. the unruly need to stay on their side of the town.
looks like plenty of rain coming for east central and north Fl with the wind switching to SW from the trough split low left in the NE gulf.

Hmmmm .... ex96L?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/graphicast/at/201 608032107_at_graphicast.png
838. beell
From the 4AM CDT Earl Discussion:

...There is some spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche. The ECMWF and the GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over water...

And that has always been the case. Assuming a weaker storm after crossing the Yucatan, a storm will follow a lower level steering ridge. The western periphery of the 850 mb ridge extends from the northern tip of the Yucatan to the northwest towards South TX.

The mid-level ridge is still indicating a continuation of a westward track. Split the difference and we may see a track that allows a bit more time over the BOC while the mid-level center continues towards the Pacific after a second "landfall".

Stronger storm=west, weaker storm=northwest.


08/04 06Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, vorticity @ 21 hrs.
Quoting 838. beell:

From the 4AM CDT Earl Discussion:

...There is some spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche. The ECMWF and the GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over water...

And that has always been the case. Assuming a weaker storm after crossing the Yucatan, a storm will follow a lower level steering ridge. The western periphery of the 850 mb ridge extends from the northern tip of the Yucatan to the northwest towards South TX.

The mid-level ridge is still indicating a continuation of a westward track. Split the difference and we may see a track that allows a bit more time over the BOC while the mid-level center continues towards the Pacific adter a second "landfall".

Stronger storm=west, weaker storm=northwest.


I was noting the blowup already going on in the EPac ....
What about the Twave at 40W, or thereabouts?
841. beell
I was posting on Earl. Not intended to be related to your comment.

Anyway, Good morning, Baha!
Quoting 835. BahaHurican:

Morning, Chick .... is that a liddle rain cloud heading toward the E CFL coast ????


We are expected to get thunderstorms today and tomorrow, at long last!
Not sure from which direction, but that blob looks promising.
Here's from the 8 a.m. TWD .... out already! I note there is no mention of the wx along the northern GOM....

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
20N45W to 07N44W moving west at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models. Wave is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of
moisture with Saharan dry air and dust NW of the wave, as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 08N-11N between 45W-
48W.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
21N55W to 09N56W moving west at 15 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is west of the wave axis from 17N-20N between 56W-60W.
Isolated moderate convection is also from 07N-11N between 52W-
57W.
844. Ed22
Quoting 834. BahaHurican:


Doesn't look like it's falling apart much ....
Anyone peak wind before Landfall...
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
345 am EDT Thursday Aug 4 2016

Discussion...

Central Florida finds itself under a weak mid level trough between
two dominant ridges, one centered over Texas and the other over the
western Atlantic. Closer to the surface, the subtropical ridge axis
has shifted toward South Florida, inducing offshore flow across the
region.

Today/tonight...abundant mean layer moisture (pwats at or above
2.0") combined with weak mid level troughing should portend a higher
coverage of showers and storms across east central Florida today.
With a more defined southwest steering flow in the low to mid
levels, anticipate a somewhat delayed development of the East Coast
sea breeze with ample low level convergence in the form of boundary
collisions later in the day. Offshore flow will be more Stout the
further north one GOES, so, the sea breeze is expected to make it
further inland across the Treasure Coast versus Volusia County.

Regardless, much of the forecast area stands to see their best
chance of wetting rains in several weeks with pops generally around
60%. Low to mid level dynamics appear relatively benign, with much
of today's convection being driven by surface based boundary
interactions. With such a moist atmosphere in place, expect today's
storms to produce tropical like downpours along with occasional
cloud-to-ground lightning strikes.
Quoting 841. beell:

I was posting on Earl. Not intended to be related to your comment.

Anyway, Good morning, Baha!
Morning.... I was posting on Earl, too .... lol ... mentioned the EPac precipitation because it seems to be related to Earl's outflow .... and IMO also implies high potential for regeneration of Earl's remnants post MX ...

But that's just my 2 cents ....
Quoting 844. Ed22:

Anyone peak wind before Landfall...
Read back from about comment 700 or so ... you can see what belizeit had to say ....
849. vis0
THIS IMAGE SEQUENCE is 2 to 3 DAYS OLD but might be useful to those that are trying to "read" what the HIGH over Texas is acting like.if you;re a 1990s eFriend no this is not in the 2000x1200 dimension, much smaller less detail)

CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA(langley)... my filters via photo apps.

AREA:: GoMx (Earl barely in view 30% left of extreme lower right)

D&T:: 2+ days old see time-stamp in black area of colourkey, colourkey is not official since this is imagery filtered by me..

SAT TYPE:: 3 types..

OBS:: A WxU member posted how weird that the HIGH to the west of Florida is allowing rain to build in E towards west into the HIGH, maybe its a "dirty HIGH" or...

To me the HIGH(s) over Texas in the VID seems to be easily nudged northward (NNE) even though the HIGH was building. Not a broken HIGH  but a HIGH that in being easily nudged allows for a more NNW movement by 10 to 15 degrees.

NOTE1:: there are ~5hrs missing, if  CLIP is played slow enough you'll see next to time stamp the "jump 5hrs" alert but i think you'll notice it anyway.

NOTE2:: as to much less important newz sadly still not high speed internet someone vandalized one of the pipes that protect the high speed lines, this was a 200x1200 dimension VID as the Joaquin i only posted 3 secs of. In this case it was a 90mb VID Joaquin i hope to upload as my first high speed upload is over 300mb.


here 628x516 at - YOUTUBE (720x516 )https://youtu.be/9uU2de-ELTU



850. beell
Quoting 847. BahaHurican:

Morning.... I was posting on Earl, too .... lol ... mentioned the EPac precipitation because it seems to be related to Earl's outflow .... and IMO also implies high potential for regeneration of Earl's remnants post MX ...

But that's just my 2 cents ....


Ok, I gotcha. Agree on the convection in the EPAC. Earl-related, no doubt. I'm sure at some point today I will broaden my world view to include more than a tiny piece of the western Atlantic basin.

See ya' later!
Earl seems to have taken quite the WSW jog over the last couple hours .... also large blowup of convection noted over the pacific side (wonder if thats what the models are picking up on). Earl has a chance to be one of those rare cross over storms if it continues to move below 270° ... just my two cents ... off to work
Quoting 851. hurricaneryan87:

Earl seems to have taken quite the WSW jog over the last couple hours .... also large blowup of convection noted over the pacific side (wonder if thats what the models are picking up on). Earl has a chance to be one of those rare cross over storms if it continues to move below 270%uFFFD ... just my two cents ... off to work
I'd not be at all surprised to see some kind of regeneration or reformation .... OTOH, I'm not terribly convinced about a storm named Earl in the EPac ... I doubt the circulation would hold together long enough.

EDIT: added topo map.


Imo there are enough 9000 peaks in western Guatemala and extreme SW Mexico to severely disrupt Earl's surface circulation, also its midlevel center.
The airport ( Philip S W Goldson International ) in Belize had a peak gust of 58 mph.
The weather station at San Pedro Town
Ambergris Caye, Belize has a peak wind gust of 59 mph (stopped reporting at around 3am)

Just a couple wind readings because some people asked.
Quoting 848. BahaHurican:

Read back from about comment 700 or so ... you can see what belizeit had to say ....


Earl must have been quite a historic type of Category One Hurricane... *PLEASE NOTE THAT BELIZEIT -IS LOCATED IN SPANISH LOOKOUT VILLAGE/ TOWN WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH IN CENTRAL BELIZE AND NOT DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST RE: DIRECT LANDFALL CONDITIONS AND RESPECTIVE DATA.
It appears that Earl's center attempted to traverse much of Belize while heading more south of due west.
Hoping and praying that the casualties will not be many in Belize. Already there's one unconfirmed death directly related to the passage of Hurricane Earl being reported.

God Bless!
Quoting 853. Sfloridacat5:

The airport ( Philip S W Goldson International ) in Belize had a peak gust of 58 mph.
The weather station at San Pedro Town
Ambergris Caye, Belize has a peak wind gust of 59 mph.

Just a couple wind readings because some people asked.
Wonder if we'll see any reliable readings from Belmopan and points eastward to the coast.....
Belmopan is located in Cayo District at an altitude of 76 metres (249 feet) above sea level.[4] Belmopan was constructed just to the east of the Belize River, 80 km (50 mi) inland from the former capital, the port of Belize City, after that city's near destruction by Hurricane Hattie in 1961.[4][5] The government was moved to Belmopan in 1970.

Actually it is SW of Belize City. I doubt they had hurricane force winds that far inland.....
Earl dropped 5mb in 2 hours on its way to make landfall, luckily he ran out of water just in time.

That was a fun couple days, hope we get to do it again soon.
You have been noting that for days. Good eye.

Quoting 827. islander101010:

ex invest is creeping west and is bubbling up. i think its the ex that makes a comeback and not the tropical wave.
Quoting 855. BahaHurican:

Wonder if we'll see any reliable readings from Belmopan and points eastward to the coast.....


San Pedro Town is just offshore, but it seems their PWS stopped working with a 59 mph wind gust.
Cantore said he didn't see any gusts over 60 mph for Belize, but we will see as information comes in.
Quoting 848. BahaHurican:

Read back from about comment 700 or so ... you can see what belizeit had to say ....


Please note that Belizeit is located in Spanish Lookout village or town which is pretty much in Central Belize and NOT along the coast- Re: actual land-falling data or reports... Earl seems to have been quite an intense, strengthening category one hurricane & historic in moving slightly south of due west apparently managing to traverse much of Belize country.
HOPEFULLY the impacts will Not be too severe & there'll be no additional loss of Life- already there has been one unconfirmed report of death due to the passage of Hurricane Earl.

God Bless!
This webcam is back up and running. Doesn't look like this area took any damage.
Link
TWC was showing some video of some pretty significant flooding with the surge during the night.
Quoting 860. NatureIsle:



Please note that Belizeit is located in Spanish Lookout village or town which is pretty much in Central Belize and NOT along the coast- Re: actual land-falling data or reports... Earl seems to have been quite an intense, strengthening category one hurricane & historic in moving slightly south of due west apparently managing to traverse much of Belize country.
HOPEFULLY the impacts will Not be too severe & there'll be no additional loss of Life- already there has been one unconfirmed report of death due to the passage of Hurricane Earl.
Personally.I think Earl was Bi-polar,when he finally made up his mind to be someone, he beached himself like a whale.Only to die a slow death.Pitiful.
Quoting 859. Sfloridacat5:



San Pedro Town is just offshore, but it seems there PWS stopped working with a 59 mph wind gust.
Cantore said he didn't see any gusts over 60 mph for Belize, but we will see as information comes in.
It would be interesting to hear from places like Hattietown or Sibun, but I don't expect we'd have access to much data from those places, except perhaps from PWS.....
FYI, the international airport is about 8 miles to the NW of central Belize City, and thus even further removed from the landfall point than the actual city. I'd expect that winds nearer the center were somewhat higher than recorded there ...
Quoting 861. Sfloridacat5:

This webcam is back up and running. Doesn't look like this area took any damage.
Link
TWC was showing some video of some pretty significant flooding with the surge during the night.
Consejo is up near the Mexican border, near Chetumal .... They would have experienced limited damage, if any, given the SW jog Earl took just before landfall ....
The Love FM Link sent by Belizeit has many pics of the devastation now coming into full view at first light...
My heart goes out to the people of Belize- Be Strong & take courage...all is Not lost. You will overcome this tragedy together.
Heartfelt prayers go out to those grieving in particular.

While back on the home front...
Ex 96L - is packing a punch of its own -as I personally expected; so there's no surprise here...as it impacts the islands (The normative- Boost due to the 'Lesser antilles/ islands rule').
Rounds of thunderstorms & Thundershowers are affecting the island of the Commonwealth of Dominica.
The morning commute has been snarled for certain- & most drivers will be sensible enough to just stay out of these conditions & off the roads until some let-up in conditions- especially in light of our recent terrible flood ordeal with Erika ('evil Erika') last year.
'Pre-Earl'- 97L was definitely a strong enough system when it affected us & was intense in convection in its own right, but there's something slightly more potent to some degree about Ex 96L's convective shower activity- so if full regeneration occurs later down the road its definitely a system to be watched (high flood potential rainfall rates)...Thank God further strengthening did not happen near/over the island chain- it would had much more serious impacts I'm sure.

Comparatively 'Pre Earl' (97L) gave us about 89mm in total yet Ex 96L has already given roughly 55mm and counting... -from just overnight into this morning & since after attempting to send this post (interrupted by lightning activity -I took precautions) there has been about 49mm in addition.
It has likely exceed 97L's Totals perhaps island-wide since we are still having the type of rain that when another round of showers is coming- it can be Heard approaching from at least a quarter mile out-(roughly 35 seconds lead time) definitely tropical cyclonic rainfall type- & not the usual tropical maritime (Not to be confused with Maritime Tropical BTW), & its not the usual Atlantic wave (AW) showers that's for sure. Hopefully, the showers should ease a bit soon as shown on the Martinique radar imagery.

Everyone Let's Keep safe & Prepared this season!
God Bless!
Good Morning...
870. beell
Quoting 851. hurricaneryan87:

Earl seems to have taken quite the WSW jog over the last couple hours .... also large blowup of convection noted over the pacific side (wonder if thats what the models are picking up on). Earl has a chance to be one of those rare cross over storms if it continues to move below 270° ... just my two cents ... off to work


Earl has always maintained a strong mid-level circulation. It just took a while to finally couple to the LLC. That strong mid-level circulation will probably survive the ATL/EPAC trip but the surface center will die. The surface low has to survive the crossing to retain the name.


From the 4AM Earl discussion this morning.

After 48 hours, Earl or its remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It should be noted that several global models forecast the development of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of Earl.
Jim Cantore was mentioning that Earl looked like it was going through an eye wall replacement cycle at landfall. The system looked stronger just offshore and then weakened just as it moved into Belize.
Quoting 871. Sfloridacat5:

Jim Cantore was mentioning that Earl looked like it was going through an eye wall replacement cycle at landfall. The system looked stronger just offshore and then weakened just as it moved into Belize.
Guess it's possible ....
Dexter has (another) girlfriend.

Alphie & Dexter
874. vis0

just read this so had to repeat it::

image host
(IMG IS NOT THE ORG LINK resized to save 50% KB and save for future reference)

usually when you feel waters this warm you look around you and if you see a kid smiling you swim way and tell others to stay away from the patch around the smiling kid.
Hurricane Earl makes landfall in Belize


...... Earlier, the storm dumped rain on nearly all of Honduras, where officials reported a lobster fishing boat was hit by a large wave in the Caribbean and capsized. Most of the 83 people on board were rescued, but the navy was looking for two missing.

Authorities rescued four families in the coastal city of Trujillo after a river jumped its banks.

Lisandro Rosales, head of Honduras' emergency commission, said there were reports of large numbers of trees and utility poles being knocked down.

Schools and universities closed across Honduras' Atlantic provinces as did two commercial airports.
Quoting 872. BahaHurican:

Guess it's possible ....


TWC showed a small island just offshore that got into the northern eye wall just before it started to weaken. But so far no reports from that location. I don't even know if they had a weather station on the island.
I just know TWC said they would like to know what the wind speed was at that location.
50% chance of tropical development in a few days in the Pacific from the remnants of Earl.
Quoting 874. vis0:


just read this so had to repeat it::

image host
(IMG IS NOT THE ORG LINK resized to save 50% KB and save for future reference)

usually when you feel waters this warm you look around you and if you see a kid smiling you swim way and tell others to stay away from the patch around the smiling kid.



That is a dramatic deviation from the mean, but do they happen to show data with standard deviations from the norm included? That would show how unusual it really is
NHC thinks the remnants of Earl will make it to the Pacific.
Quoting 876. Sfloridacat5:



TWC showed a small island just offshore that got into the northern eye wall just before it started to weaken. But so far no reports from that location. I don't even know if they had a weather station on the island.
I just know TWC said they would like to know what the wind speed was at that location.
IIRC, most of the small cays just offshore are not regularly inhabited ... they are used mainly as vacation spots or daily outing locations .... given the tiny hurricane windfield, it's likely only a few locations were directly impacted.

Anybody seen any other reports, especially pictures?

Quoting 865. BahaHurican:

Consejo is up near the Mexican border, near Chetumal .... They would have experienced limited damage, if any, given the SW jog Earl took just before landfall ....
Exactly correct. Our highest wind gusts were 37kts at about 5:30am local time. Max. sustained winds were 24.3kts at about that same time. Minimum pressure was 1007mb at 6:50am. Total rain was only 1.98 inches (so far). We were expecting much worse conditions.

While Consejo, Belize dodged the bullet, our major population center Belize City, appears to have suffered  serious damage. With power and internet down in the Belize District, it will be a while before the extent of the damage will become general knowledge.

The water facing camera is working again. The north facing camera is still down. I can't get to the router to reset it until I can take the storm shutters down. We still have 20kts wind out of the east, so it will have to wait a while.


A september low pressure system over lake superior could be interesting. Maybe a replay of this.

Hope everyone has a wonderful day.
In the meantime, we'll keep watching
and waiting...


"And way down south in the Everglades,
Where the black water rolls and the saw grass sways
..."
With Earl fading out, the Atlantic basin is taking on a much different look than it has had recently. As anticipated, a large SAL outbreak is underway, crippling any MDR convection east of the Caribbean and contributing to a sharp drop in SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. It will likely take until around August 20 for the basin to prime itself once again for an active period, or at least conditions that favor more activity. Again, this is primarily MJO related, as that feature moves strongly into the West Pacific. Extrapolating outward, things should set up favorably for the peak 3-4 weeks of our season in the Atlantic. But for now, sit back and watch the West Pac.



Looking back the HWRF model was almost spot-on about Earl.
Quoting 878. OviedoWatcher:



That is a dramatic deviation from the mean, but do they happen to show data with standard deviations from the norm included? That would show how unusual it really is
Standard Deviation can't be that large because Lake Superior is a very large Lake, so its temperatures have a rather consistent pattern.
Belizeit - Blogger of the season so far. Thanks for all the updates. Praying all is well down there.
Quoting 881. ConsejoBelize:


Exactly correct. Our highest wind gusts were 37kts at about 5:30am local time. Max. sustained winds were 24.3kts at about that same time. Minimum pressure was 1007mb at 6:50am. Total rain was only 1.98 inches (so far). We were expecting much worse conditions.

While Consejo, Belize dodged the bullet, our major population center Belize City, appears to have suffered  serious damage. With power and internet down in the Belize District, it will be a while before the extent of the damage will become general knowledge.

The water facing camera is working again. The north facing camera is still down. I can't get to the router to reset it until I can take the storm shutters down. We still have 20kts wind out of the east, so it will have to wait a while.



Yeah ... forecast track brought this right over Chetumal Bay, so you guys lucked out. Some of the pictures from Belize about 2 a.m. showed some surge flooding .... given the SW movement at the time, I'm sure it was fairly extensive .... not sure how points south, like Sibun, fared.

However, as a small consolation, it seems the worst of the winds went south of the city. We'll know more, I'm sure, as the day progresses.
Quoting 887. MonsterTrough:

Belizeit - Blogger of the season so far. Thanks for all the updates. Praying all is well down there.
Hope he's sleeping now, after blogging all night. Also hope he gets power back fairly quickly ...
Quoting 884. MAweatherboy1:

With Earl fading out, the Atlantic basin is taking on a much different look than it has had recently. As anticipated, a large SAL outbreak is underway, crippling any MDR convection east of the Caribbean and contributing to a sharp drop in SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. It will likely take until around August 20 for the basin to prime itself once again for an active period, or at least conditions that favor more activity. Again, this is primarily MJO related, as that feature moves strongly into the West Pacific. Extrapolating outward, things should set up favorably for the peak 3-4 weeks of our season in the Atlantic. But for now, sit back and watch the West Pac.



Hoping those 3-4 weeks are enough to get an active season. Need the Atlantic to get going soon for an active season
Quoting 884. MAweatherboy1:

With Earl fading out, the Atlantic basin is taking on a much different look than it has had recently. As anticipated, a large SAL outbreak is underway, crippling any MDR convection east of the Caribbean and contributing to a sharp drop in SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. It will likely take until around August 20 for the basin to prime itself once again for an active period, or at least conditions that favor more activity. Again, this is primarily MJO related, as that feature moves strongly into the West Pacific. Extrapolating outward, things should set up favorably for the peak 3-4 weeks of our season in the Atlantic. But for now, sit back and watch the West Pac.




Not real disappointed to read this as my wife and daughter are spending the week of the 15th in Orlando.
Quoting 882. VAbeachhurricanes:

A september low pressure system over lake superior could be interesting. Maybe a replay of this.


When was this?
Quoting 878. OviedoWatcher:



That is a dramatic deviation from the mean, but do they happen to show data with standard deviations from the norm included? That would show how unusual it really is


Here it is stacked against the past 5 years for comparison. 2012 was warmer earlier in the year, but looks like 2016 will have warmth later in the year.

Greetings All!

A Very IMPRESSIVE flare up Now appearing on satellite imagery of Ex 96L *(sneaky little system) with some rotation to it as well. The ‘Lesser Antilles Rule’ seems to be holding sway at present which favours strengthening, development and organization of tropical disturbances near or over the Lesser Antilles.
The leeward islands of the Lesser Antilles may be in a for a much more rainy impact than we have had thus far.

Blessings!
Quoting 891. analogkid84:



Not real disappointed to read this as my wife and daughter are spending the week of the 15th in Orlando.
An active season is one thing, but so far every storm has made landfall.... not sure if I want to see an active season where every cyclone hits something.... sooner or later someone is going to get whacked....
I keep feeling like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop......
Quoting 866. GeoffreyWPB:


I hope CaribBoy, and everyone in the Islands, will get some good rain from the wave that is approaching now.
96L Remnants quickly adopting that classical Cyclone appearance on satellite imagery. GFS was right to some extent in predicting a deepening of the low pressure center nearer the islands -if this deep area of convection is maintained a CSC, (Close Surface Circulation) or CCC may be formed...
Close observation may be needed.

Blessings to All especially to the Folks in Belize!
Sneaky Ex-96L. Looks like it could be bringing some beneficial rains. islander101010 has been keeping tight watch...Akamai.
Quoting 896. Climate175:

I hope CaribBoy, and everyone in the Islands, will get some good rain from the wave that is approaching now.


Hopefully, it will be rain and nothing more for the islands though I have my reservations (time will tell)...additionally the system to the East of Ex 96L needs to be monitored closely as well...

Blessings!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
what does the next 2 months look like based on predictions? is the MJO going to set up in the Atlantic and allow storms to form or are we going to have yet another year of no CONUS landfalls. Last year was completely dead; just curious to know if the MJO is going to keep this year just like last year.

thanks in advance for the info.
Quoting 895. BahaHurican:

An active season is one thing, but so far every storm has made landfall.... not sure if I want to see an active season where every cyclone hits something.... sooner or later someone is going to get whacked....
I keep feeling like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop......


Baha, I'd like to introduce you to Earl. Earl... this is Baha. Apparently you two haven't met.
904. vis0

Quoting 393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

this storm has been messing with everyone since Saturday onward to be honest I am waiting for it to blow up over land as a cat 4 then I will know for sure something is really really wrong with the weather
how 'bout a cat2 over BrwnOcn...sooner than later...
Quoting 867. mikatnight:


what season had the longest streak of Landfalling systems, does anyone know? If there is a storm in the gulf next week we are probably up to 6.
Wow!
907. vis0
904dejavu'd
908. vis0

Quoting 762. swflurker:

Well I guess you don't ride a motor cycle.
If you do, take a ride down the freeway at about 90, for an hour or two, no helmet, windshield, and goggles. This would be comparable to a high cat 1 .
Oops, you need bag of sand to dispense in front of your face as well if you want the true effects of a landfall at the beach.


vis0 sez::(i add this mainly for the inexperienced that luv to learn but do so without respecting natures fury. If those reading this understand to respect nature then the read is for entertainment purposes only)

you forgot in the rain...pieces of lite wood, lite furniture,  close eyes for 8-10 hrs for nighttime, other doing the same going in the other direction (heading towards each other), those that fell off "motorcycle" and as you pass by they ask for help...and vice versa. (vice versa is the worst)
909. vis0

Quoting 878. OviedoWatcher:



That is a dramatic deviation from the mean, but do they happen to show data with standard deviations from the norm included? That would show how unusual it really is

Might  be on the official
site i was astonish at the rise which is not normal at this time of the year
(max period) be it avg or mean.

Also if one uses an average the danger
comes as to how the pick the years. Does one pick only odd or even years (too
crazy) but do they pick all decades or last few decades as in  just including oh
lets say last 30 years.  Since the planet is warming (that includes the planets
contents) this years readings might not look as warm.  Like someone with an
gastric ifection causing fever, thinking 99.6F is normal instead of
98.6F.

OH LOOK THERE IS A TW...TD...TS...HurrCAT1...i'm behind so if its either POOFED or a CAT2 crayon that in...if
my text is hard tpo read highlight it...just like those who knew that on my olf
now deleted pages i'd type in white only readable when highlighted or html'd.
Hmm by the looks of it on satellite there may have been a piece of Earl that broke off or consolidating in the NW Caribbean just ZnE of Honduras

Freaky in a away