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Hurricane warnings for North Carolina for Category 3 Earl

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010

Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Hurricane Earl chugs to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle and some dry air that got wrapped into the core of the storm. Earl's eye made a direct hit on NOAA buoy 41046 at 4am EDT this morning. The buoy recorded a surface pressure of 943 mb, exactly what the Hurricane Hunters were estimating. The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds. The buoy is also located at a height of 5 meters, which is less than the standard ten meter height used to do wind measurements, so an additional upward adjustment needs to be made. Peak waves at the buoy were a remarkable 49 feet.

A recent microwave "radar in space" image (Figure 2) shows that dry air has spiraled into the core of Earl, knocking a gap into the southern eyewall. The latest 9am EDT report from the Hurricane Hunters confirmed that the southwest portion of the eyewall was missing. Top winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters were only Category 2 strength, and Earl may be weaker than the stated 125 mph winds in the 11am NHC advisory.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Earl taken by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010.

>
Figure 2. Microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Earl taken at 6:45am EDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010. The southern portion of Earl's eyewall was missing, thanks to a slug of dry air (blue colors) that had spiraled into Earl's core.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Recent satellite loops show that upper level outflow is good to the north and east of Earl, but is poor on the southwest side. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows that this is because upper level winds out of the southwest are creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear on Earl's southwest side. The winds are from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This trough is forecast to weaken and move to the west away from Earl, which should reduce the shear to 10 - 15 knots by Thursday morning. If true, the relaxation in shear may give Earl enough time to mix out the dry air it ingested and regain its previous 135 mph Category 4 intensity. Water vapor satellite loops, though, show there is still plenty of dry air on Earl's west side that could potentially wrap into the storm if there is enough wind shear to drive it into Earl's circulation. Ocean temperatures are still very high, a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. It is likely Earl will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning, with a small chance it will be at Category 4 strength. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

Impact of Earl on North Carolina
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning are very similar to the previous set of runs. The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina near 2am Friday. If this track verifies, a period of 40+ mph winds will affect coastal North Carolina for a period of 12 - 18 hours beginning at about 6pm EDT Thursday night. Earl's expected radius of hurricane-force winds of 60 miles to the west will bring hurricane conditions as far west as Morehead City and Elizabeth City in North Carolina. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the west, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Wilmington to Norfolk could see sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. Storm surge would not be significant along the North Carolina coast facing the open ocean, since winds would be offshore. However, a significant storm surge of 3 - 6 feet could occur in Pamlico Sound, due to strong west to north winds. Coastal Highway 12 out of the Outer Banks would likely be blocked by sand and debris or washed out, resulting in a multi-day period where everyone on the Outer Banks would be stranded. Is is possible that the NOGAPS scenario is not the worst case, and that Earl will strike farther west, resulting in the Outer Banks getting the fearsome maximum winds of the storm's right front quadrant. However, it is more likely that Earl will pass just offshore, resulting in North Carolina receiving the weaker west side winds. Since Earl's forward speed will be about 20 mph at that time, the winds on the hurricane's west side will be about 40 mph less than the right front quadrant on the east side. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 23% chance of hurricane-force winds on Cape Hatteras, 7% for Morehead City, and 3% for Norfolk, Virginia.

Impact of Earl on New England
The NOGAPS model brings Earl closest to the coast of New England, predicting the west eyewall of the the hurricane will pass over Nantucket at about 2am Saturday morning, and the tip of Cape Cod a few hours later. If this track verifies, 40+ mph winds would affect southeastern Massachusetts for a period of 6 - 12 hours beginning at about 8pm EDT Friday night. Earl should be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane then, with hurricane-force winds extending 30 miles to the left of its track. Hurricane conditions would then affect the eastern tip of Long Island, coastal Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts. Earl's radius of tropical storm-force winds to the north, over land, will probably be about 150 miles, so locations from Central Long Island to southern Boston would experience sustained winds of 40 mph in this worst-case model scenario. A storm surge of 3 - 5 feet might occur in Long Island Sound, and 2 - 3 feet along the south coast of Long Island. A deviation to the left, with a direct hit on eastern Long Island and Providence, Rhode Island, would probably be a $10 billion disaster, as the hurricane would hit a heavily populated area and drive a drive a 5 - 10 foot storm surge up Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay. The odds of this occurring are around 5%, according to the latest NHC wind probability forecast. The forecast is calling for a 25% chance of hurricane-force winds on Nantucket, 8% in Providence, 6% in Boston, and 18% in Hyannis. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from New England early Saturday morning.

Impact of Earl on Canada/Maine
Late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl should be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane. This won't be another Hurricane Juan, the 2003 Category 2 hurricane which made a direct hit on Halifax, Nova Scotia, causing over $200 million in damage. Earl's impact is likely to be closer to 2008's Hurricane Kyle, which hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 29% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, 24% in Halifax, and 17% in Eastport, Maine.

Beach erosion
Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Beach erosion damage in the mid-Atlantic states will likely run into the millions, but will probably not be as bad as that suffered during Nor'easter Ida in November of 2009. That storm (the remains of Hurricane Ida that developed into a Nor'easter) remained off the coast for several days, resulting in a long-duration pounding of the shore that caused $300 million in damage--$180 million in New Jersey alone.

Record ocean temperatures off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast
The period May - July was the hottest such 3-month period in history for the Northeast and Southeast U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Most of the hurricane-prone states along the coast, including New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina had their hottest May - July in the 116-year record. These record air temperatures led to record ocean temperatures, according to an analysis I did of monthly average 5x5 degree SST data available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre.. The region of ocean bounded by 35N - 40N, 75W - 70W, which goes from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to Central New Jersey, had the warmest July ocean temperatures since records began in 1875--a remarkable 2.12°C (3.8°F) above average. The year 2008 was a distant second place, with temperatures 1.5°C (2.7°F) above average. The ocean region off the Southeast U.S. coast, bounded by 30N - 35N, 80W - 75W, from the Georgia-Florida border to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, had its 4th warmest July ocean temperatures on record. Temperatures were 0.8°C (1.4°F) above average, which fell short of the record 1.1°C anomaly of 1944. The August numbers are not available yet, but will probably show a similar story.

All this warm water off the East Coast means it is much easier for a major hurricane to make landfall in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast U.S. Usually, ocean temperatures fall below the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a hurricane as soon as a storm pushes north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This year, those temperatures extend all the way to the New Jersey coast (Figure 3.) Such warm ocean temperatures increase the odds of a major hurricane making it to the mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. Since record keeping began in 1851, there have been only 15 major hurricane in U.S. coastal waters north of the North Carolina/Virgina border--about one per decade. The last such storm was Hurricane Alex of August 6, 2004.


Figure 3. Water surface temperatures from AVHRR satellite data for the 6-day period ending August 31, 2010. Ocean temperatures of 26.5°C, capable of supporting a hurricane, stretched almost to Long Island, New York. Image credit: Ocean Remote Sensing Group, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona last night showed us why hurricane forecasting is such a difficult job. The storm made an unexpected slow-down in forward speed. This slow-down resulted in less wind shear affecting Fiona than expected, since the storm is farther from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Earl. The wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group shows just a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear affecting Fiona, which is low enough that the storm has been able to organize into a respectable 60 mph tropical storm. Martinique radar shows that the outer bands from Fiona are bringing heavy rain squalls to the same islands of the northern Lesser Antilles that were affected by Earl. Our wundermap shows that winds in the islands are all below 20 mph, but winds will increase to 30 - 40 mph later today as Fiona draws closer. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some in recent hours. This may be due to the fact that Fiona is currently crossing the cold water wake of Earl.

Forecast for Fiona
In the short term, moderate wind shear and dry air should keep Fiona from attaining hurricane status, though we do have several models that predict it could become a Category 1 hurricane. Fiona is likely to come close enough to Bermuda on Saturday or Sunday to pose a threat to that island, though it is possible high wind shear from Earl could kill the storm by then. The long term fate of Fiona remains unclear, with some models calling for dissipation this weekend, and other models calling for Fiona to be left behind by Earl to wander over the ocean near Bermuda early next week.


Figure 4. Morning radar image of Fiona from the Martinique radar. Image credit: Meteo France.

TD 9
Invest 98L gained enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine this morning. This wil probably be Tropical Storm Gaston by tomorrow morning. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days, and TD 9 could be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now, as predicted by the GFDL model. The storm will likely pose a threat to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Tuesday.

Next post
I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

angiest,

thank you for your response. in your view, if you the ability to look out further than 5 days, how strong of a storm do you see and is Florida in it's sights?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it could, I would keep my eyes peeled for this one, watch and see. It is still 5-7 days away and a lot can change in that time
This is a very active CV season and historically Puerto Rico has been hit by Cat 4 and 5 from CV storms,we had a close call with powerful Cat4 Earl. So we better be on alert, for Gaston or whatever comes from Africa. And History says, when they hit PR the head to Florida.
is there a ULL in the northern gulf thats pulling Earl more west?

Link
OMG!!!! KOG, those models show Earl becoming polygonal!!!!!
1475:

Well...we were discussing that earlier.

The forward speed taken with the fricken CHIPS intensity forecast is literally a nightmare.

The consensus has basicly already verified.

Intensity models

God forbid the outlying 150kts ensemble member...

But if it holds the consensus it's still going to hit the carolinas as a cat4 at landfall.

The foreward speed is going to be so high (probably 30mph or more,) that it will punch the eye right onto land with little or no weakening.
1506. ncstorm
Quoting tropicfreak:


Do you all think a fran scenario is still possible??


Yes I do..right now with the increasing speed..its a foot race to the coast, who will win..right now Im thinking earl..and SE NC is the bullseye
Quoting Drakoen:
I could see the storm coming in within 150 miles from the OBX
Unfortunately I think more like 50-75 either or, its still bad for them.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
1509. leo305
TS GASTON official
...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...
1501. WAY too early to tell.
And we have Gaston

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WE NOW HAVE GASTON
WE NOW HAVE GASTON
Quoting jurakantaino:
Wow ,Gaston coming our way too, I wonder for how long our luck is going to last in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands?
..and Barbados
1516. Drakoen
Quoting Flyairbird:
Unfortunately I think more like 50-75 either or, its still bad for them.


Wouldn't be surprised if it got that close looking at the latest GFS.
Quoting ncstorm:


right now with the increasing speed..its a foot race to the coast, who will win..right now Im thinking earl..
Like I had posted earlier, since Earl has sped up and the trof never got the memo. You may be right.
Quoting Drakoen:
I could see the storm coming in within 150 miles from the OBX


That's what Dr.M was forecasting 24 hours ago on Hurricane Haven.
1519. angiest
Quoting kshipre1:
angiest,

thank you for your response. in your view, if you the ability to look out further than 5 days, how strong of a storm do you see and is Florida in it's sights?


I haven't paid enough attention to Gaston yet to hazard a guess. Based on history, Caribbean, Gulf, and SE US should be mindful of this system right now (except those dealing with Earl at the moment, they have enough to keep them occupied for the next few days).

We have a very active tropical Atlantic now, and unlike 1995 it doesn't seem that the pattern that turns everything north is going to persist.
Gaston now predicted to become a Hurricane and go towards the Caribbean.
1521. xcool
yay woof
Hello Gaston!!
so i guess thank goodness southeast florida dodged the bullet for danielle earl and fiona but anyone one have any thoughts on td9 possible gaston/ and godbless all in earls way and may you all be prepared!!!
1524. angiest
Quoting heavyweatherwatcher:
OMG!!!! KOG, those models show Earl becoming polygonal!!!!!


Saturn's south polar vortex? (I think)
1525. xcool
GASTON not going out sea .
NHC says Hurricane in 96 hrs.
Gaston puts us at 7-3-2..
1528. Patrap
Man, this could get wild.......
Im not looking at another model...Im consulting a rather large glass of Jeremiah Weed, watching Drak, Storm, Levi, and Flood. I have "All Along The Watchtower" on 10 and will shortly set up my 'cane chart at the bottom of a chicken brooder and see what my daughters pet silkie Isabella thinks about Earls track...fear the chicken...
1531. xcool
CybrTeddy you meaning 7-3-3
At least
some good
newsLink
1533. angiest
Quoting ConchHondros:
Im not looking at another model...Im consulting a rather large glass of Jeremiah Weed, watching Drak, Storm, Levi, and Flood. I have "All Along The Watchtower" on 10 and will shortly set up my 'cane chart at the bottom of a chicken brooder and see what my daughters pet silkie Isabella thinks about Earls track...fear the chicken...


You may need Purple Haze soon.
Quoting scCane:

So Drakoen, future Gaston looks to be a fish also any thoughts on it?


I think it is a bit early to call Gaston a fish.
1535. xcool
first name of September 01
1536. xcool
Gaston not a fish.
1537. TGTTX
Quoting Patrap:


Geez...that looks to have an even more Westerly component...but maybe I'm not seeing it correctly, or maybe it is just temporary...get North, Earl, please, and quick!
We actually have the same number of depressions as 2008, just all of them that year were named.

However, AL102008 was named the following day... don't think that'll occur.
Quoting gwhite713:


Awesome look.Accept i think 75W 30N will be achieved maybe 12 hours prior to the forecast.Might try plotting a line from 77W 30N by 0800 tommarrow and see where your line points to..


Well, if Earl were to remain on a heading of 320 Degrees (NW) until about 08:00 tomorrow at present speed, the line would roughly approximate this (which ends at 76.2W, 29.3N). THIS IS NOT A FORECAST - it is essentially just a very rough XTRAP-type line using the Great Circle Mapper.

Hopefully he gains a more northerly component to his motion, per the current NHC forecast, and makes 75W 30N as forecast by 08:00 tomorrow. Would be happy to see Earl head more out to sea.

Quoting xcool:
CybrTeddy you meaning 7-3-3

No... We've only had 2 majors... Danielle and Earl.
Tropical Storm GASTON Storm Archive
...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS... maybe invest 99L COMING SOON.

Is Earl going through an EWRC?
1543. unf97
Quoting angiest:


I haven't paid enough attention to Gaston yet to hazard a guess. Based on history, Caribbean, Gulf, and SE US should be mindful of this system right now (except those dealing with Earl at the moment, they have enough to keep them occupied for the next few days).

We have a very active tropical Atlantic now, and unlike 1995 it doesn't seem that the pattern that turns everything north is going to persist.


I agree. I think we are seeing the pattern shift evolve for all to see now.
1544. leo305
EARL A CAT 4

MOVING NW AT 17

135MPH
1545. Patrap
Gustav Hit La.this Date 2 years ago.

I think Earl is in the prosses of becoming annular.
1547. IKE
2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 1
Location: 25.7°N 72.7°W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb

...............................

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 1
Location: 26.3°N 73.3°W
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Earl is back up to Category 4!
New/Updated Watches and Warnings should come out a 5 PM for Earl.
Quoting leo305:
EARL A CAT 4

MOVING NW AT 17

135MPH
Holy Merde!
1551. Patrap
A Powerful Major Hurricane EARL



cyberteddy,

in your expert analysis and view, do you see Hurricane Gaston taking a path towards florida?
1553. Walshy
The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared a state of emergency.
Last year, the 'G' named storm, Grace, didn't form until October 4th.
..DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...



SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.
1556. leo305
HURRICANE WATCH INCLUDES AS FAR NORTH AS MASSACHUSSETS
Storm was and is correct. Watch and prepare.
Quoting Walshy:
The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared a state of emergency.
I bet they did..... NJ will be next.
Quoting kshipre1:
cyberteddy,

in your expert analysis and view, do you see Hurricane Gaston taking a path towards florida?


I'm not a expert by any means and its way to early to say so right now where Gaston will go.
can someone real quick send me a link showing the tropical African satellite that shows the waves coming off Africa? thanks
1562. xcool
i keeping say it back to back storms no stop..
Scary looking.....

Hope everyone on the east coast is paying attention!
Quoting Patrap:
A Powerful Major Hurricane EARL



Quoting scCane:
Ok thanks and for post 1430 Fran was a Cat. 3 at landfall. The most furthest north land-falling cat. 4 hurricane award belongs to Hugo.


Hazel im pretty sure, Winyah Bay, SC
I have been VERY impressed with Brian Norcross' Tropical Updates on TWC. He seems to be doing a great job explaining things and going in depth into the forecasts.

Thoughts?
1566. ncstorm
Well. the cone is still the same..even the models have trended west but the NHC cones dont? what gives?
Quoting AllStar17:
I have been VERY impressed with Brian Norcross' Tropical Updates on TWC. He seems to be doing a great job explaining things and going in depth into the forecasts.

Thoughts?


I agree.
Quoting leo305:
HURRICANE WATCH INCLUDES AS FAR NORTH AS MASSACHUSSETS

Again.. Cape Cod & the Islands!
Quoting Patrap:


Good job on the avatar Pat, Clint Eastwood is ex Army, lol
I believe that tonight Earl will become the strongest hurricane in the open Atlantic since Isabel.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think Earl is in the prosses of becoming annular.


No he isn't, there is still a long outflow that is not symmetrical.
Quoting ncstorm:
Well. the cone is still the same..even the models have trended west but the NHC cones dont? what gives?


the cone did shift... south jersey was further outside the cone at 2pm than we are now
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
09L.GASTON
08L.FIONA
07L.EARL

East Pacific
94E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
93W.INVEST
08W.KOMPASU
07W.LIONROCK

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Quoting AllStar17:
I have been VERY impressed with Brian Norcross' Tropical Updates on TWC. He seems to be doing a great job explaining things and going in depth into the forecasts.

Thoughts?

I couldn't agree more. Brian Norcross should be their "hurricane expert". He went through Andrew, and he has great experience.
Virgina might see similar conditions to that of Hurricane Isabel.

New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts need to get ready now.


1577. ncstorm
Quoting SouthNJcoastKen:


the cone did shift... south jersey was further outside the cone at 2pm than we are now


Im talking about NC..it seems its farther east now..
1578. JamesSA
The potential path of Gaston looks troubling. He is just enough South of the other three that it looks probably that somebody will get hit, but who? It will be interesting to see where the models want to take him once they get a good initial fix.

It is going to be a lively time on the blog for sure!
Shhh...No one tell Snookie NJ is next...
Quoting ncstorm:
Well. the cone is still the same..even the models have trended west but the NHC cones dont? what gives?


Yes it has
1581. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
Gustav Hit La.this Date 2 years ago.



I forgot how big he was.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Virgina should expect similar conditions to that of Hurricane Isabel.

New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts need to get ready now.

img src="
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/152331W5_NL_sm.gif" alt="" />


Come on now?!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gaston now predicted to become a Hurricane and go towards the Caribbean.


Cyber, Ive been new to the post this year but i have observed you bring good information and analysis. I've being reading (Storm, Levi et al)about how the "patterns" could bring Gaston or maybe future Hermine on a more westerly path possibly affecting the Caribbean. I have even read about this year being so similar to 1998 (Georges) in terms of patterns. Could you explained a little bit more how the actual steering patterns could bring those systems to our area (Caribbean, PR)
Quoting kshipre1:
can someone real quick send me a link showing the tropical African satellite that shows the waves coming off Africa? thanks


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-rgb.html

Fiona COC exposed, She is falling apart.
1586. unf97
Quoting AllStar17:
I have been VERY impressed with Brian Norcross' Tropical Updates on TWC. He seems to be doing a great job explaining things and going in depth into the forecasts.

Thoughts?


I have great respect for Bryan Norcross. He was great during coverage of Hurricane Andrew when it hit South FL in 1992. He is one of the best hurricane experts in the business and hiring him was the best thing The Weather Channel has done in years.
Man I was going to Carova Beach but now I may not.... well i'll go anyway just to ride in the car and take video of Earl if it hits NC.
Quoting RuBRNded:


Good job on the avatar Pat, Clint Eastwood is ex Army, lol


Yeah were is your Chesty Puller Avitar?
Quoting ConchHondros:
Im not looking at another model...Im consulting a rather large glass of Jeremiah Weed, watching Drak, Storm, Levi, and Flood. I have "All Along The Watchtower" on 10 and will shortly set up my 'cane chart at the bottom of a chicken brooder and see what my daughters pet silkie Isabella thinks about Earls track...fear the chicken...


Now that is a plan!!!
Quoting ncstorm:


Im talking about NC..it seems its farther east now..


NC looks to be fairing better now.. thank goodness. Hopefully Earl will push even further northeast later?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Virgina should expect similar conditions to that of Hurricane Isabel.

New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts need to get ready now.

img src="
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_NL_sm2+gif/152331W5_NL_sm.gif" alt="" />


Va?? uh oh that means me, but don't know what exactly what we here in Richmond will see.
1592. leo305
Quoting AllStar17:
I have been VERY impressed with Brian Norcross' Tropical Updates on TWC. He seems to be doing a great job explaining things and going in depth into the forecasts.

Thoughts?


He is the best met that there was in miami, during Wilma/Katrina

Amazing, simply amazing, he would tell it like it is, TWC just limits his time.
Ho ho ho we ave Gaston
1594. sfranz
Actually, there are some of us up here in New England watching the discussion. The yard clean up is done. I have a pile of plywood in the garage, but can't get a clear signal if I should pack up and head north or just watch for a bit longer.

It is frustrating, because we have more than 6 million people here and about five major roads out. And with the uncertainty, we're not even sure which way to run, if we need to.

Good times!
1595. ncstorm
Quoting tropicfreak:


Yes it has


You right..the center of Earl now sits right off the coast of NC ..the right side of the cone is the eastern side of NC..my bad..
Between 2 and 5 pm, Earl moved 0.6 W and 0.6 N, for a distance of 56 miles, averaging 19 mph.
The distance to me decreased from 650 miles to 595 miles, or 55 miles, indicating that Earl is continuing to head almost directly towards me. But the XTRAP 'model' will soon be proven wrong once again!
Quoting tatoprweather:


Cyber, Ive been new to the post this year but i have observed you bring good information and analysis. I've being reading (Storm, Levi et al)about how the "patterns" could bring Gaston or maybe future Hermine on a more westerly path possibly affecting the Caribbean. I have even read about this year being so similar to 1998 (Georges) in terms of patterns. Could you explained a little bit more how the actual steering patterns could bring those systems to our area (Caribbean, PR)


I can't explain it properly, I'm not a expert, but its because the way the ridge is situated over the United States this year that storms will tend to enter the Caribbean or hit the Leeward Islands and head NW under a influence of troughs sneaking by the ridge.

Forgive me, my weakness is on patterns.
1598. scCane
Fiona is trying to put her clothes back on

Quoting Dixiegirl:


I was thinking the same thing. In Louisiana it will be gas-TAWn with the n not really pronounced but suggested.


gas-TAWn can stay far away from Louisiana. Gustav was bad enough for us.
1600. IKE
...FIONA MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS BEING DISCONTINUED...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 1
Location: 20.2°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
1601. ncstorm
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


NC looks to be fairing better now.. thank goodness. Hopefully Earl will push even further northeast later?


Um no I was wrong..actually the center or eye of Earl is almost making landfall in the outerbanks..one more wobble to the west and we got a landfall in NC
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I believe that tonight Earl will become the strongest hurricane in the open Atlantic since Isabel.


He's certainly looking the best he's looked since Monday evening I think. He just might, but not too much stronger than now.
1603. angiest
OBX is now very close to the hurricane force wind circle.
If Earl's trend continues, I think we'll see the Hurricane Warning's extended to Paramore Island, VA at the 11 PM update (this will include the Virginia Tidewater).
1605. leo305
The cone shifted west and now includes all of long island
Any models hinting at what Gaston will become and may go?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Between 2 and 5 pm, Earl moved 0.6 W and 0.6 N, for a distance of 56 miles, averaging 19 mph.
The distance to me decreased from 650 miles to 595 miles, or 55 miles, indicating that Earl is continuing to head almost directly towards me. But the XTRAP 'model' will soon be proven wrong once again!


XTRAP isn't a model.. it just shows if a storm were to go in the same direction it is now going where it would end up, with no other factors taken in account like troughs or anything else..
Quoting sailfish01:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/flash-rgb.html

Fiona COC exposed, She is falling apart.


Fiona never really had ideal conditions thanks to big brother Earl, looks like we'll be tracking Gaston for a while however.
1548:

yes, and they are even low-balling the intensity at the moment.

they had reported 141mph sustained and 939 pressure earlier, so I think they are waiting to just verify it some more.
1612. xcool
Earl is a situation all From the Mid Atlantic to the Eastern Provinces of Canada should keep aware of. It could be a dangerous situation for some.
1614. leo305
Earl is going to have DMAX to strengthen tonight, the dry air is the only thing stopping it.. the gulf stream is going to be in his path as well
Quoting ncstorm:


Um no I was wrong..actually the center or eye of Earl is almost making landfall in the outerbanks..


? I dont see that at all.. link?
Quoting IKE:
...FIONA MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS BEING DISCONTINUED...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 1
Location: 20.2°N 62.9°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb


Pressure back down.
1617. xcool
btwntx08 this not going out sea
Hi, StormW!
1619. xcool


this not 2009
07L/MH/E/C4
MARK
26.44N/73.00W
1621. unf97
Quoting StormW:
Evening!


Good evening Storm. Hope all is well.
Quoting StormW:
Evening!


Evening Storm.......This is going to be a real nail biter in terms of every wobble on approach to the the NE and we are still 10 days away from the peak of the season with several more probably in the pike.....Time for coffee and sedatives.
what did i say the 12z ecmwf is wrong already on the track
hello all i had logged off and missed any responses as i said it looks like southeast florida dodged a bullet from danielle earl and most likely fiona but what does anyone think about td9 any possibilities and godbless all those in earls way and may you all be prepared...
Quoting StormW:
Evening!

Evening, Storm. How are you? Are you still wanting Earl to stay strong like you said yesterday?
SSG, that is really saying a lot, that Earl will be the strongest open Atlantic Hurricane since Isabel of 2003. Isabel was a low end category five hurricane with sustained winds peaking at 160mph.
I'm getting a bit worried here in Baltimore... I'm a great distance away, but our beach town, Ocean City, is gonna receive a good bit of something from Earl.

I wasn't here during Isabel, but downtown flooded, bcuz the water was pushed up the bay.
So this is not good.
Quoting StormW:
Evening!

Evening!!! Can I have your thoughts on what you think Earl is going to do?
Looks like less of a storm for us in NS because of the amount of Earl that will side swipe the US. I expect our intensity will get stronger again if it stays more east.
hello storm, cat 4 again, hmm? very nice eyewall structure.
You guys know if Earl beacomes annular at Cat 4 statis and takes a tiny jog to the west it might be anouther Hugo.
Wow can the barrier islands of North Carolina(Outer Banks)be decimated by this storm permanently, especially the tip of Hatteras Bight?
Quoting Patrap:
Gustav Hit La.this Date 2 years ago.




yeah he did, i live just a few miles north of baton rouge. we had lots of damage.. hopefully we don't see one this year.
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 18.2200
08L (Fiona) Operational 1.3950
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.1225
Total 50.6275


Ace has crossed 50 for the season
Hmmm, if Gaston manages to weave it's way through the Caribbean into the GOM, it might hit Texas on the same date as a certain presidential nicknamed storm two years ago
1636. ncstorm
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


? I dont see that at all.. link?
Link

the (M) is almost touching the barrier islands..
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Fiona never really had ideal conditions thanks to big brother Earl, looks like we'll be tracking Gaston for a while however.


The fact that she got up 60 mph tells you something about this seasons storms.
1638. swlavp
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


XTRAP isn't a model.. it just shows if a storm were to go in the same direction it is now going where it would end up, with no other factors taken in account like troughs or anything else..
He was being "Sarcastic"
1639. RickWPB
Quoting AllStar17:
I have been VERY impressed with Brian Norcross' Tropical Updates on TWC. He seems to be doing a great job explaining things and going in depth into the forecasts.
Thoughts?


I agree too. Although I live in West Palm Beach area, I always preferred watching Bryan Norcross (Chnl 4)... or Don Noe (Chnl 10) in Miami.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 18.2200
08L (Fiona) Operational 1.3950
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.1225
Total 50.6275


Ace has crossed 50 for the season


Earl Should pass Danielle by tomorrow.
1641. angiest
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
01L (Alex) Operational 6.7825
03L (Bonnie) Operational 0.3675
04L (Colin) Operational 1.9450
06L (Danielle) Operational 21.7950
07L (Earl) Operational 18.2200
08L (Fiona) Operational 1.3950
09L (Gaston) Operational 0.1225
Total 50.6275


Ace has crossed 50 for the season


Gaston will overtake Bonnie very quickly.
1642. Legion
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


XTRAP isn't a model.. it just shows if a storm were to go in the same direction it is now going where it would end up, with no other factors taken in account like troughs or anything else..


I believe he is aware of that, notice he put model in quotes.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You guys know if Earl beacomes annular at Cat 4 statis and takes a tiny jog to the west it might be anouther Hugo.


It ain't annular not even close.
Hey StormW! Was wondering when you'd stop in.
1645. aimetti
Been following this since the beginning,
I live 10 miles from south eastern shore of CT , the cone keeps getting closer and closer :/
Quoting ncstorm:
Link

the (M) is almost touching the barrier islands..


yeh, are you on the barrier islands there? Gonna get awful windy for ya if things stay the same for sure..
Quoting ElConando:


Earl Should pass Danielle by tomorrow.


easily pass Danielle ... by tomorrow night Earl will be near 25 and all together I am thinking Earl could get to 35
Quoting swlavp:
He was being "Sarcastic"
XTRAP is not a model, it's a straight line. :P
1650. angiest
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hmmm, if Gaston manages to weave it's way through the Caribbean into the GOM, it might hit Texas on the same date as a certain presidential nicknamed storm two years ago


Oh, hush. :)
Quoting btwntx08:
what did i say the 12z ecmwf is wrong already on the track


CMC shows 1020 high from the eastern US to C ATL if that happens not only FL landfall but a GOM landfall as well. I feel confident in that.
Latest peak water level forecast from ADCIRC modeling:

1653. ncstorm
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


yeh, are you on the barrier islands there? Gonna get awful windy for ya if things stay the same for sure..


No Im in Wilmington but if Earl beats this High to the coast..all bets are off for a landfall up that far in NC..
Quoting swlavp:
He was being "Sarcastic"


Oh.. sorry. haha
Quoting xcool:


this not 2009


Chalk up number 7 on that too.
1656. angiest
Quoting ElConando:


It ain't annular not even close.


Yeah not close at this time. Banding is very evident in satellite.
1657. TopWave
On vacation in Sandbridge Beach, VA....Anybody think we should ride it out or evacuate
OK, I have to check out to talk my mom off the ceiling....
1659. snowboy
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


XTRAP isn't a model.. it just shows if a storm were to go in the same direction it is now going where it would end up, with no other factors taken in account like troughs or anything else..


It has been more accurate than the models..
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Preparation 2010






Always a good reminder...thanks Pat
Quoting TopWave:
On vacation in Sandbridge Beach, VA....Anybody think we should ride it out or evacuate


Get out.
Quoting ncstorm:


No Im in Wilmington but if Earl beats this High to the coast..all bets are off for a landfall up that far in NC..


Well good luck to you! Stay prepared in case :)
Earl's satellite appearance continues to improve and his CDO continues to get better organized. Hurricane Watches for me now.
Wow, no one's talking about Kompasu making landfall at Korea.
1665. angiest
Quoting Legion:


I believe he is aware of that, notice he put model in quotes.


I did the same thing a day or two ago. People are reading too fast. (And I'm sure I've done it too).
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


XTRAP isn't a model.. it just shows if a storm were to go in the same direction it is now going where it would end up, with no other factors taken in account like troughs or anything else..


Um...yeah... that's why I put quote marks around 'model'
1667. JamesSA
Quoting leo305:
The cone shifted west and now includes all of long island

Leo, where are you seeing that?
Quoting TopWave:
On vacation in Sandbridge Beach, VA....Anybody think we should ride it out or evacuate


I'm about 40 miles north of you right now. We're in a low lying area, we're not leaving. Local METS think we'll only see a minimal effect from this storm. Gee, I hope they're right. I have packed up on food and water though. So we'll see. I also have friends in Nags Head, they are not leaving either.
Quoting Jeff9641:


CMC shows 1020 high from the eastern US to C ATL if that happens not only FL landfall but a GOM landfall as well. I feel confident in that.


Gaston will be a bit of a slow mover so to feel confident in something possibly two weeks out? Dunno about that.
Gaston is organizing rapidly too. Should have another 24 hours at least to intensify quickly.
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
SSG, that is really saying a lot, that Earl will be the strongest open Atlantic Hurricane since Isabel of 2003. Isabel was a low end category five hurricane with sustained winds peaking at 160mph.


I don't think Earl will be as strong as Isabel, but I do think he will get below 931 mb tonight. Upper 920s. But I'll be very surprised if he gets close to Isabel's pressure.
Quoting ElConando:


It ain't annular not even close.


I know that but i said "IF" it does. sorry if you dont like the "IF" game but a hurricane can always do an "IF".
1673. leo305
Quoting JamesSA:

Leo, where are you seeing that?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



yeah he did, i live just a few miles north of baton rouge. we had lots of damage.. hopefully we don't see one this year.

Amen to that.....he took my fence, part of my roof and I want it back! lol
Quoting TopWave:
On vacation in Sandbridge Beach, VA....Anybody think we should ride it out or evacuate


What do YOU want to do?

I would leave.
1676. ncstorm
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Well good luck to you! Stay prepared in case :)



Thanks I appreciate that!!
1677. leo305
very scary, a CAT 4 heading quickly NW at the moment, and warm waters ahead to keep it at CAT 4 for a while, once it turns North/NNE/NE it will be moving so quickly that a MAJOR HURRICANE at a very high latitude is probable..
1678. Dakster
Good thing this is a bust season or else we would be tracking three storms right about now, with a potential CONUS hit.


Oh wait... Nevermind.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Latest peak water level forecast from ADCIRC modeling:



Been hoping you would come in with the water info.
what does becoming "annular" mean?
Dr. M: "The buoy measured winds in the eyewall of 76 mph, gusting to 96 mph. The peak winds of Earl were stronger than this, though, since the buoy only reported measurements once per hour, which is not a fine enough resolution to see the peak winds."

Well, actually, we do have 10 minute interval winds for that buoy, but is a 10 minute average.


Commonly accepted conversion from 10 minute to 1 minute average is to multiply by 1.15 (just happens to be the same as the knots to mph factor).

Starting with 67 knots, 10 minute average, this works out to 88 mph peak wind speed measured at 41046.

NDBC does also have the highest 1-minute wind speed on their site:


After conversion to 88 mph, shows somewhat less than my calculations above.
1682. ncstorm
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I don't think Earl will be as strong as Isabel, but I do think he will get below 931 mb tonight. Upper 920s. But I'll be very surprised if he gets close to Isabel's pressure.


Hey SSIG..

Earl hasnt even gotten into the gulf stream yet..we may be looking at some different numbers when that happens
Quoting Dakster:
Good thing this is a bust season or else we would be tracking three storms right about now, with a potential CONUS hit.


Oh wait... Nevermind.


LMAO!!
Quoting MoltenIce:
Wow, no one's talking about Kompasu making landfall at Korea.

Where in Korea? I have a son-in-law stationed in S Korea and he never mentioned anything. TIA
1685. Guiness
Our power has just come back on after nearly 3 days due to Hurricane Earl - no water (electric pump) and no electricity is not fun - try washing with one gallon containers of water before work after having not slept due to the heat..puts me in a great mood for catching up with stuff in the office after 2 days with the office closed.

Tortola BVI here by the way.

Let me put it another way...before Earl came to say hello on Sunday / Monday I was excited to see my first Hurricane and I wanted it to pass over our island - believe me, I am not as excited about Gaston arriving next week...

Quoting Dakster:
Good thing this is a bust season or else we would be tracking three storms right about now, with a potential CONUS hit.


Oh wait... Nevermind.


Hahaha, good point. I guess it's time to start sending out those emails to my family in Mass and Virginia.
Quoting Dakster:
Good thing this is a bust season or else we would be tracking three storms right about now, with a potential CONUS hit.


Oh wait... Nevermind.


Yeah with #4 rolling out of Africa.
Quoting TopWave:
On vacation in Sandbridge Beach, VA....Anybody think we should ride it out or evacuate


How adventurous of a vacation do you want to have?
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Where in Korea? I have a son-in-law stationed in S Korea and he never mentioned anything. TIA


Right at the border, so very close to Seoul.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I can't explain it properly, I'm not a expert, but its because the way the ridge is situated over the United States this year that storms will tend to enter the Caribbean or hit the Leeward Islands and head NW under a influence of troughs sneaking by the ridge.

Forgive me, my weakness is on patterns.


Thanks for your answer and don't worry. No weakness at all. Just worry about what can happen here in PR if something come to our area (although I'm already prepare thanks to Earl)
Earl is large and dangerous, Fiona small and non-threatening, and Gaston a new player. Tropics are heating up. Bad beginning for September.
Is Raleigh NC far enough inland to be spared?
Quoting MoltenIce:
Wow, no one's talking about Kompasu making landfall at Korea.



thats be come its in the W Pac lol
1694. swlavp
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Amen to that.....he took my fence, part of my roof and I want it back! lol

Same here!!! Then had to wade through Ike's trash not too long after!
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Where in Korea? I have a son-in-law stationed in S Korea and he never mentioned anything. TIA
It made landfall somewhere near the North/South Korea border. We'll not get much news from the North though.
i'm in cape hatteras and we're still under warnings, i'm not leaving though.
1697. NJ2S
What does this meanb for New York City....ppl are asking and talking about Earl but without precaution......what ccan we expect here
1698. angiest
Quoting NWWNCAVL:


How adventurous of a vacation do you want to have?


Better questions is, is s/he responsible for any children?
Quoting xcool:
first name of September 01


It's gonna be a long month.
1700. marmark
Quoting aasmith26:


I'm about 40 miles north of you right now. We're in a low lying area, we're not leaving. Local METS think we'll only see a minimal effect from this storm. Gee, I hope they're right. I have packed up on food and water though. So we'll see. I also have friends in Nags Head, they are not leaving either.
Make sure you fill up your gas tank, too!
Quoting wxvoyeur:


Right at the border, so very close to Seoul.

Wow....thanks.
Interesting that Gaston is still forecast to be several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands in 5 days. That's quite slow average movement for that area.
HurricaneEarl's heading had remained steady at 3degrees north of NorthWest, well within
the margin of rounding error from its previous heading of 2.9degrees north of NorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~18.7mph(~30.1km/h)

31Aug . 09pmGMT - - 22.0n68.8w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - NHC.Adv.#26
01Sep . 12amGMT - - 22.5n69.1w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26A
01Sep . 03amGMT - - 23.0n69.9w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27
01Sep . 06amGMT - - 23.5n70.7w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27A
01Sep . 09amGMT - - 24.0n71.2w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #28
01Sep . 12pmGMT - - 24.5n71.6w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #28A
01Sep . 03pmGMT - - 25.1n72.1w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #29
01Sep . 06pmGMT - - 25.7n72.7w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #29A
H.Earl becomes Cat.3 again
01Sep . 09pmGMT - - 26.3n73.3w - - 135mph - - 941mb - - #30

Copy&paste 22.0n68.8w, 22.5n69.1w, 23.0n69.9w, 23.5n70.7w, 24.0n71.2w-24.5n71.6w, 24.5n71.6w-25.1n72.1w, 25.1n72.1w-25.7n72.7w, 25.7n72.7w-26.3n73.3w, gso, 26.3n73.3w-32.6n80.16w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~31hours from now to SeabrookIsland,SouthCarolina
around a third of the way from Charleston to HiltonHead
Quoting TampaTom:


Get out.


I've been waiting for you to say what you think, instead of posting Emer.Mgmt. links. ;). Nice answer!
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
what does becoming "annular" mean?


A storm with large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions like shear, colder water, and landfall.
Quoting Patrap:
A Powerful Major Hurricane EARL





Wow! That's an ominous looking storm. I live at 27.0 and 80.0....looking almost due east of me. Sure hope that monster turns away quickly from NC and the east coast.
1708. xcool


Euro ensembles .nice
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Is Raleigh NC far enough inland to be spared?


1710. Dakster
Quoting HimacaneBrees:
what does becoming "annular" mean?


An Annular hurricane, which Earl is NOWHERE NEAR, is:

1. VERY rare only 3% become true annular hurricanes of all major hurricanes.

2. VERY symetrical

3. Look like a "truck tire" in that there are no spiral bands. (Think Katrina and Isabel)

4. Are not as suspectible to steering currents and windshear as non-annular hurricanes.


They form an intense protective ring a thunderstorms and tend to make their own environment.

WIKI has a great article on them.
Here's the flight track of one of the planes from MacDill AFB in Earl

Link to Flightaware site
Quoting aspectre:

HurricaneEarl's heading had remained steady at 3degrees north of NorthWest, well within
the margin of rounding error from its previous heading of 2.9degrees north of NorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~18.7mph(~30.1km/h)

31Aug . 09pmGMT - - 22.0n68.8w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - NHC.Adv.#26
01Sep . 12amGMT - - 22.5n69.1w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #26A
01Sep . 03amGMT - - 23.0n69.9w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27
01Sep . 06amGMT - - 23.5n70.7w - - 135mph - - 940mb - - #27A
01Sep . 09amGMT - - 24.0n71.2w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #28
01Sep . 12pmGMT - - 24.5n71.6w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #28A
01Sep . 03pmGMT - - 25.1n72.1w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #29
01Sep . 06pmGMT - - 25.7n72.7w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #29A
H.Earl becomes Cat.3 again
01Sep . 09pmGMT - - 26.3n73.3w - - 135mph - - 941mb - - #30

Copy&paste 22.0n68.8w, 22.5n69.1w, 23.0n69.9w, 23.5n70.7w, 24.0n71.2w-24.5n71.6w, 24.5n71.6w-25.1n72.1w, 25.1n72.1w-25.7n72.7w, 25.7n72.7w-26.3n73.3w, gso, 26.3n73.3w-32.6n80.16w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~31hours from now to SeabrookIsland,SouthCarolina
around a third of the way from Charleston to HiltonHead

Earl could intensify further to near Cat 5 strength when it hits the Gulf Stream. If it jogs left we're talking major destruction. GET AWAY FROM THE BEACH!
1715. will40
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Is Raleigh NC far enough inland to be spared?


yes Raleigh should be ok
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Amen to that.....he took my fence, part of my roof and I want it back! lol


Im still trying to get my yard back after that one. Huge tree went down, almost took out my shed. Holes all over the yard when I finally got it all cut up and removed.
1717. xcool
GASTON getting ready start you engine lots hothot sst
The 5pm track brings the coc 50 miles from me?!

I could potentially see the western eyewall of this monster?!
Quoting will40:


yes Raleigh should be ok


Thanks Will.
Pardon the ignorance, but what is ACE?
1721. ncstorm
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Is Raleigh NC far enough inland to be spared?


Good luck getting back..highways do cave in..people were stuck in Raleigh when floyd came..
1722. angiest
Quoting Chapelhill:


A storm with large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick ring of intense convection. This type of storm is not prone to the fluctuations in intensity associated with eyewall replacement Annular hurricanes also tend to persist, even when encountering environmental conditions like shear, colder water, and landfall.


And spiral bands are not evident in annular hurricanes, hence the name. They look like a great big tire or doughnut.
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
i'm in cape hatteras and we're still under warnings, i'm not leaving though.


And you may end up regretting it!
Quoting xcool:
GASTON getting ready start you engine lots hothot sst
...and no shear from Earl to impede development.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




thanks for the visuals! :)
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Is Raleigh NC far enough inland to be spared?


It is very likely that Raleigh will have nice sunny days throughout the whole event. But...never say never...
Quoting Guiness:
Our power has just come back on after nearly 3 days due to Hurricane Earl - no water (electric pump) and no electricity is not fun - try washing with one gallon containers of water before work after having not slept due to the heat..puts me in a great mood for catching up with stuff in the office after 2 days with the office closed.

Tortola BVI here by the way.

Let me put it another way...before Earl came to say hello on Sunday / Monday I was excited to see my first Hurricane and I wanted it to pass over our island - believe me, I am not as excited about Gaston arriving next week...



Glad you made it through. And it really isn't as much fun as some might think. :(
1728. Brennen
How is the trough doing that is supposed to recurve Earl? Is it on time, slow, fast?
My Predictions for this Hurricane Season (Posted on June 16,2010). 17-20 Named Storms 9-12 Hurricanes 5-8 Major Hurricanes
Quoting Chapelhill:


What do YOU want to do?

I would leave.


Our local mets. just said Virginia Beach has nothing to worry about "Not the Big One" Anyone want some extra water, ice and batteries? I will sell them real cheap! Stay in Sandbridge dude, we are gonna be fine.
1731. o22sail
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
The 5pm track brings the coc 50 miles from me?!

I could potentially see the western eyewall of this monster?!


Not if you leave. ;-}
Quoting BaltOCane:
I'm getting a bit worried here in Baltimore... I'm a great distance away, but our beach town, Ocean City, is gonna receive a good bit of something from Earl.

I wasn't here during Isabel, but downtown flooded, bcuz the water was pushed up the bay.
So this is not good.


I have friends that are actually planning on beating Earl down to OC. The local mets are apparently saying some breeze and high seas, but not even any rain. You believe that?
Gaston:

1734. Relix
Earl: Aiming at EC. If it passes 75W then it's game time. Hope people prepare well.

Gaston: Taking aim at Puerto Rico and the caribbean and I believe this could be the first major to impact PR since 1998. All pieces are finally in position for us to get it.
1735. xcool
MoltenIce .yep.
Just want to point out to everyone that even though the excitement is about Earl and Gaston at the moment, Fiona is strengthening and the thunderstorm area is growing, looks to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. No clue on the steering with Earl smashing into the ridge, but one to watch, worry about Gaston later when it's closer to the caribbean.
1737. will40
Quoting hurricanehanna:


Thanks Will.


u r welcome
1738. angiest
Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
Pardon the ignorance, but what is ACE?


Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Broadly speaking, it is supposed to be an objective measure of how much energy tropical cyclones put out.
Quoting OBXNCWEATHER:
The 5pm track brings the coc 50 miles from me?!

I could potentially see the western eyewall of this monster?!


Not if you GTHO of there...
this is going to be fun. supposed to go to woods hole MA for a wedding this weekend. lol, at least it isn't my wedding, i'd be flipping out right now.

last time a decent sized 'cane hit there was bob and that part of the cape was without power for weeks.
The interactive cone/track graphic on the NHC site is a good tool to use to see how much the cone/track has changed. You zoom/position to your area of interest and then change the advisory number at the top of the graphic.
"ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs"
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hmmm, if Gaston manages to weave it's way through the Caribbean into the GOM, it might hit Texas on the same date as a certain presidential nicknamed storm two years ago


Troll. Ignored.
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hmmm, if Gaston manages to weave it's way through the Caribbean into the GOM, it might hit Texas on the same date as a certain presidential nicknamed storm two years ago


And if my grandmother had you know what she be my grandfather =}
1746. angiest
Quoting SeVaSurfer:


Our local mets. just said Virginia Beach has nothing to worry about "Not the Big One" Anyone want some extra water, ice and batteries? I will sell them real cheap! Stay in Sandbridge dude, we are gonna be fine.


Heh. Not like plenty of us haven't heard *that* one before.
1747. surfmom
NeverEver want to see a Cane cause destruction - but there are waves and surfers who follow them. Earl the BlackPearl is going to be churning the wave maker.
Below Surf report is from a Surfer's Perceptive.
AuraSurf/Micah Weaver
4pm Update: FLORIDA: Todo el mundo para el area este! Window has expanded a bit for the weekend warriors. Tomorrow: Solid surf cleaning up by late Thursday for the EC. Big, drifty waves. Boardwalk and RC's will probably see double Overhead. By Friday it's gotten smaller and cleaner still head high plus and classic with winds STR8 offshore. Saturday waist high leftovers but still fun. Sunday thigh high. Next week strong NE winds build across FL. I am out, see ya next Tuesday 9/7.
1748. spdmom
Having lived in Nags Head in OBX this past winter and summer, we saw MUCH damage, just from the low depressions.. THERE IS NOTHING LEFT to take the impact of any storm, let alone this Earl. There is no wide beach, and no dunes to stop flooding, Hatteras is a sitting duck, along with the rest of the non-sand beaches. It will be sad when OBX gets hit.. The flooding from the Palmico sound on the westside and the ocean on the east will be devastating. Remember, OBX is only 3 feet ABOVE sea level.. that is it..2 inches of rain would causes flooding near the sound.. Just 2!! There is no drainage infrastructure in OBX, none.. the water sits.. I don't believe Earl will "pass by" OBX, but rather hit on, or nearby.. Hard to believe or imagine that computer models can predict mother nature to a tee.. There is always a margin of error. But for all the friends we met while living there? I hope I am wrong..
1749. angiest
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


Paging DestinJeff.
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


Any day now I think there are a few clouds bubbling up in the Atlantic
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Is Raleigh NC far enough inland to be spared?
If it heads straight for Raleigh we're talking lots of damage. Google Hugo and Charotte.
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


in 7 to 10 days.......or so.
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


What are you talking about Fallinstorms said 2 more storms after Bonnie and that was that. Pay no attention to the thing with the eye. It is non tropical :p.
1754. surfmom
Quoting Relix:
Earl: Aiming at EC. If it passes 75W then it's game time. Hope people prepare well.

Gaston: Taking aim at Puerto Rico and the caribbean and I believe this could be the first major to impact PR since 1998. All pieces are finally in position for us to get it.


Let's hope not - there's two beaches that have my heart & and I love the folks there
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?



hmmmm, funny storm....It has definitely picked up. What are your thoughts on Gaston?
Earl:



Fiona:



Gaston:

Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?

*jumping up and down waving hands* oooh I know!!!!
1720:

ACE = "Accumulated Cyclone Energy"


It's an attempt to measure the total amount of energy used by a storm during it's lifetime.
Quoting TampaTom:
OK, I have to check out to talk my mom off the ceiling....

ROFLMAO!! Sorry, too funny.
We might all be asking ourselves in about two weeks as to when the season will end.......
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


Hah! You know storm!
Didn't you get the memo StormW? There is no season this year. It's a bust. LOL
Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
I've lived in the area for the past 27 years... trust me when I say this... never trust what the local met's say... their track-record has been horrible.
T.D9 is now T.S. Gaston. One of the most conservative models(LGEM) indicates a strenghtening to a major hurricane before reach the Lesser Antillies.In September, the historical tracks of tropical systems puts in more danger the Eastern Caribbean.
Quoting Guiness:
Our power has just come back on after nearly 3 days due to Hurricane Earl - no water (electric pump) and no electricity is not fun - try washing with one gallon containers of water before work after having not slept due to the heat..puts me in a great mood for catching up with stuff in the office after 2 days with the office closed.

Tortola BVI here by the way.

Let me put it another way...before Earl came to say hello on Sunday / Monday I was excited to see my first Hurricane and I wanted it to pass over our island - believe me, I am not as excited about Gaston arriving next week...



Glad to hear things went okay, considering.
Before the Hurricane
Develop a plan. Know your homes vulnerability to the threats above - surge, wind, and flooding. Check your supplies - water, batteries, food. For information on developing a Hurricane Supply kit, see our page on that topic. Know where you can evacuate to - friends, relatives, a hotel?

Know when to take action - Watch vs Warning
WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible in the specified area of the WATCH, usually within 36 hours.
WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area of the WARNING, usually within 24 hours. Remember that there is no such thing as a "minor hurricane." Category 1 and 2 hurricanes still can do significant damage.

Prepare before a Watch or Warning is issued and be ready to evacuate when the Watch comes or earlier if so instructed.

An Approaching Storm
As a storm approaches, you should prepare your house and your yard. Some things to consider:

Turn down the temperature on your freezer and refrigerator as low as possible. This will buy you more time in the event of a power loss. 24 to 48 hours before will cool the food. Avoid opening them whenever possible. If you are evacuating.
Before you evacuate, call at least one person out of state to let them know your plans.
Ensure that your Hurricane Emergency Kit is fully stocked.
Charge electronic devices, for example, computers, cell phones, rechargeable batteries, razors, and the like.
Make extra ice, bag it - this will be useful to use and to keep the freezer cold.
If you have a generator, do NOT run it inside or near the house. But make sure you have fuel to run it.
Make sure your car has fuel.
Pick up yard debris - furniture, tools, decorative items, branches - anything loose that could become a missile. We have placed furniture in the pool upon occasion.
Secure boats, trailers, campers, RVs, and the like in the safest place you can find. Tie them down, anchor them, or however you can best secure them. But, take into account that there may be a storm surge.
Secure all doors and windows with locks, and shutters if available. Plywood, properly secured, can be effective. Don't forget your garage doors.
Move items that may be damaged by water to higher areas of your home if you can not take them with you if evacuating. Move them away from windows in case they are broken.
Huge items must even be secured in big storms. An engine block was found 40 or 50 feet up in a pine tree in the Homestead (actually Redlands) area after Andrew. Don't think that something is too big to be moved by the wind.
Re-check tie-downs.
Bring cars, bikes, scooters and anything like that into your garage if possible.
Bring in grills or other cooking items.
Bring in hoses, trash cans, hot tub covers, wind-chimes, plants.
Caulk and fill bathtubs - extra water comes in handy for toilets and more..
It may sound strange, but do your laundry, dishes, and take a shower. Why? Because if you lose power, having as much clean as possible will make a big difference.
Check if your pool pump should be on or off.
Close and fasten gates so they don't swing.
Close chimney flues.
Close/latch inside doors and cabinets.


If you have time, help your neighbors. Debris in their yards can easily impact your home and yard.

During a storm.


Stay inside, away from windows
Be alert for tornadoes
Stay away from flood waters and storm surge. It can be deceptively strong.
Be aware of the eye. It may be calm, but winds can and will pick up quickly and could catch you outside.
Un-plug electronic devices that are not in use to avoid surge damage.

After a Storm

Know power safety - avoid downed lines
Know food safety - what is good and for how long.
Chain saw safety is critical
Generator safety is important too
Water treatment - whether water needs to be boiled or not.
Listen to local officials
Use flashlights instead of candles
Inspect your home for damage.
Stay off roads as much as possible
You may need to super-chlorinate your pool

********************************************************
Quoting SeVaSurfer:


Our local mets. just said Virginia Beach has nothing to worry about "Not the Big One" Anyone want some extra water, ice and batteries? I will sell them real cheap! Stay in Sandbridge dude, we are gonna be fine.


Just looked on Google maps. Are you guys talking about that line of houses right along the beach?

Let me get this right. Cat 4 storm swells (even if it goes down to 2), hurricane/tropical storm force winds from the east if it goes to NC, beach facing west. Good luck with that.
1770. Engine2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is this the 18z GFS?
Quoting angiest:


Accumulated Cyclone Energy. Broadly speaking, it is supposed to be an objective measure of how much energy tropical cyclones put out.


Much thanks! Appreciate it!

Man I hope the OBX don't get hit too hard, I love vacationing there...
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


I believe this will answer your question, sir!



LOL!
1773. unf97
Quoting FFtrombi:
Just want to point out to everyone that even though the excitement is about Earl and Gaston at the moment, Fiona is strengthening and the thunderstorm area is growing, looks to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. No clue on the steering with Earl smashing into the ridge, but one to watch, worry about Gaston later when it's closer to the caribbean.


Yeah, you beat me to it. Fiona is just below hurricane strength now, 997 mb at the latest advisory. This storm has been both tenacious and very tricky to analyze. It seems that Fiona is working very hard to remain a seperate entity. If Earl continues to get farther way from her, lots of variables would still be into play in terms of the long range forecast. We definitely have to pay attention to Fiona if she can continue to maintain her own over the next few days.
Quoting wxvoyeur:


Right at the border, so very close to Seoul.




In 2000, a typhoon made landfall on the North/South Korea border, killing 46 people and causing $6 billion USD in damage.

Kompasu about to make landfall:
remember a hurricane can strip clean everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and water
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


After that one I just had to log in, missed you all, I've been reading the various explanations and "funnies" to husband while watching Earl and the rest of the African train chug in......
1773. Projected to Dissipate in 4 days. It will do so slowly.
1778. leo305
Very very sad..

nobody is boarding up in the north east or cape hateras...

they don't beleive anything is going to happen
models are meant to be used for guidance purposes only and donot depict final outcome of any one single event things can and will change
Let's see how this works.
Look, I see a disturbing number of queries in the way of should I stay or leave, will this place or that place be spared, etc.

This blog, though some do have real qualifications to answer the question, is not the place you should be with questions like those.

Even with considerable the experience and knowledge about hurricanes that we may collectively have on hand, we don't know the elevation of the land around you. We don't know the elevation of the floor of your residence. We don't know the elevation of the roads around you and/or if you would like to be on your own, with no emergency services for an extended period of time. [this could go on and on]

We can say that, outside of OBX, there haven't been any other evacuations called for (as far as I know). No one city or area, especially cities well inland, is under the threat of complete devastation from Earl. His damage will be in a pick and choose fashion. He will probably erode enough beach under a few houses to topple them (every NC cane does) and little else. But, some of the lower places from OBX to VA Beach *could* get some floodwaters.

If you still don't know if you should be where you are, it's high time to pay attention to what your local emergency managers are saying. They know your area. Expect that no one in a weather blog has the combination of skills, local knowledge, and trustworthiness that you really need and ignore those that tell you otherwise.
Quoting spdmom:
Having lived in Nags Head in OBX this past winter and summer, we saw MUCH damage, just from the low depressions.. THERE IS NOTHING LEFT to take the impact of any storm, let alone this Earl. There is no wide beach, and no dunes to stop flooding....


Yea, I hear ya. It does not take much to get washover, and the dunes have really taken a beating recently. I fear that even a close miss will take some beachfront property.
1783. o22sail
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Direct Hit:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.

...does expansion of the wind-field, often seen at higher latitudes, change these distances???
That sounded pretty concrete...just wondering.
remember ike a cat 2 storm with a cat 4 surge

Last Hurricane to Hit Florida:



Last Tropical Storm (Eclude Bonnie)

Cape Cod & The Islands!
1789. unf97
Quoting ElConando:
1773. Projected to Dissipate in 4 days. It will do so slowly.


We shall see. Fiona was also expected to be ripped to shreads by Earl , but looked what happened in the past 24 hours. She had a mind of her own, slowed down, and actually got stronger.

My point is that Fiona has played some tricks on us already, so I am not discounting anything about her future for sure.
You guys know there's a new blog, right?
=)
Quoting unf97:


We shall see. Fiona was also expected to be ripped to shreads by Earl , but looked what happened in the past 24 hours. She had a mind of her own, slowed down, and actually got stronger.

My point is that Fiona has played some tricks on us already, so I am not discounting anything about her future for sure.


I guess so.
6 more hr on current heading and it will be due south of Cape Hatteras. It better start turning.
How large a surge is Earl pushing? If it hits just below Chesapeake won't it push the surge up towards DC?
Earl is a very strong Storm. Watching and waiting for what he will do in the days ahead is obviously the hardest part. We see the cone, we see the models, we hear opinions on this Blog, as well as our Weather Experts in each city/state where we all live. No one is perfect in forcasting excactly where Earl will eventually end up as far as a landfall. IN MY OPINION, and it is just that, an opinion. The Longitude of 75W is a significant point in the next 24 hours. If Earl does go past 75W by 1 degree, or even .5 a degree, then the implications of an East coast hit are increased significantly, no matter if he does turn North, then Northeast after that. 75W is the key!! Let's hope he stays East of 75W. Stay safe all in the cone.
1795. xcool
newwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog blog
Did Fay landfall in FL 5 times? jajaja
1797. xcool
new blog blog
This Tried my Life Back in 2008.



We Are So Lucky that didnt Happen. It went into Cuba and Hit Texas as a Cat 2.
1799. xcool
blog new
1800. Dakster
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


I was hoping you could tell us....

Is the setup for Gaston the same as for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona? (It doesn't look like it to me.... But want you opinion)
1801. unf97
Quoting RadarRich:
Earl is a very strong Storm. Watching and waiting for what he will do in the days ahead is obviously the hardest part. We see the cone, we see the models, we hear opinions on this Blog, as well as our Weather Experts in each city/state where we all live. No one is perfect in forcasting excactly where Earl will eventually end up as far as a landfall. IN MY OPINION, and it is just that, an opinion. The Longitude of 75W is a significant point in the next 24 hours. If Earl does go past 75W by 1 degree, or even .5 a degree, then the implications of an East coast hit are increased significantly, no matter if he does turn North, then Northeast after that. 75W is the key!! Let's hope he stays East of 75W. Stay safe all in the cone.


Well stated. I emphasized the 75W point in a post awhile ago myself. Any distance Earl travels past 75W before the recurve spells trouble for the NC Outer Banks north and northeastward in terms of even a possible landfall, especially the Outer Banks.
1802. usa777
Anyone that stays in warned area's are insane. Speaking from experience I was one of those idiots that decided I would be ok because the locals said "we will be fine", the storms always turn. Well anyone considering staying need's to take a look at the aftermath pics of Bay St Louis Miss after Katrina. This isnt a cat 1 with 78 mph winds. This thing is a dangerous cat 4 storm that will kill you. You know come to think of it..Id get the hell out in a cat 1 too.
Quoting Relix:
Earl: Aiming at EC. If it passes 75W then it's game time. Hope people prepare well.

Gaston: Taking aim at Puerto Rico and the caribbean and I believe this could be the first major to impact PR since 1998. All pieces are finally in position for us to get it.


I hope you're wrong. But it looks that way at this moment.
1804. Titoxd
000
WTNT44 KNHC 012042
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU
INDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM
OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF
GASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

AN AMSR-E PASS AT 1613 UTC HELPED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 280/13. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOW
DOWN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN A FEW DAYS AND STEER THE
TROPICAL STORM AT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER RATE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
NOW THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INITIALIZING THE STORM...BUT THERE ARE
STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE
THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL
MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 12.9N 37.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 13.1N 38.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 13.4N 39.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 13.7N 41.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 45.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 15.5N 50.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 16.5N 54.5W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Anybody have radar link from Bahamas?
1806. Titoxd
000
WTNT34 KNHC 012040
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010

...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...THE FOURTH TROPICAL
STORM IN THE LAST ELEVEN DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1635 MI...2635 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST. GASTON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Quoting groundgirl:
Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?


After that one I just had to log in, missed you all, I've been reading the various explanations and "funnies" to husband while watching Earl and the rest of the African train chug in......

Me too. I started getting "the funnies" reading some of the comments, especially people who are staying on the beach. It's not worth it ppl....I was 15 miles inland with Hugo and we had pine tree missles flying all around even without the stormm surge. Don't stay on the beach!!!!!
StormW

...are we finished with the Pre-Game show yet?

(Are we there yet Dad?)

CRS
1809. alcomat
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Troll. Ignored.
Quoting WeatherLoverinMiami:


And if my grandmother had you know what she be my grandfather =}
seems like you florida wishcasters are getting a little defensive, when the word texas is brought up..oh I forgot,canes only hit florida..
Jim Cantore was just ranting on TWC because not enough people are taking Earl seriously.


It looks like a lot of people are just sitting around waiting to decide tomorrow, and they don't realize how big Earl is or how fast Earl is going to be moving NW by morning.



Then when they get family members killed or loss of property, they are gonna blame TWC, NHC and the media for allegedly "not informing them".

There are a lot of houses behind Jim Cantore that show no evidence of preparations at all. No boards/shutters, and stuff just sitting around in the yard...a few dozen yards off the water...
Quoting Relix:


Earl: Aiming at EC. If it passes 75W then it's game time. Hope people prepare well.


Yikes. If it passes 75W, i'm heading for the hills. I'm just north of Yorktown, VA.



NEW BLOG STARTED 20 MINUTES AGO PEOPLE
Did the blog stop??
1814. alcomat
Quoting RecordSeason:
Jim Cantore was just ranting on TWC because not enough people are taking Earl seriously.


It looks like a lot of people are just sitting around waiting to decide tomorrow, and they don't realize how big Earl is or how fast Earl is going to be moving NW by morning.



Then when they get family members killed or loss of property, they are gonna blame TWC, NHC and the media for allegedly "not informing them".

There are a lot of houses behind Jim Cantore that show no evidence of preparations at all. No boards/shutters, and stuff just sitting around in the yard...a few dozen yards off the water...
did the goofus have his aviator goggles on? was he saying [the wind is really starting to pick up] he is the king of hype !! lol
I am a newbie to this site and i have been listening carefully, and following Earl since it became a TD, to the official NHC models and also to the unofficial but credible online forecasters.

The official view always seems to voice a "careful not to panic approach" but hey if we get it wrong then ........."

The voices here are "saying it" as they "see" it and yes debate, conjecture,and guesswork are part of the discussions.

I always believe in being honest and open in my words.3 days ago i said Earl would hit the east coast and today i still believe that to be true and i definately do not,and did not then, WISH that to happen.
The official word has gone from "will not hit" to "near miss" to "still too far out to say for certain" to "evacuation of near coast islands" to " declaring a state of emergency" in NC.whats next??

I for one hope and pray that the "experts" have got it absolutely right but on the evidence so far provided seems they are guessing and hoping just like us amateurs.

Quoting StormW:
Pardon me, when does the season start?

This is a test, only a test of the.... :)
1817. alcomat
looking at the latest rainbow loop I sure dont see a NW motion.a true NW motion would have this storm going into SC, but the NNW,to N,motion is easy to see. Earl may be starting his northerly turn after all.imo,the carolinas can possibly breathe a little easier,but need to see the next loop update to be sure...
Test 1233.. blog appears to have stopped..
1819. MahFL
Earl is moving North ?
1820. pottery
Greetings all.
Been away from the blog for a couple days (in the Mountains - rain at mid-day and nice evenings).

See some activity has happened (have a nephew in St.Kitts so he kept me up-to-date as Earl passed through), and more activity is coming again.
As expected!

That wave now leaving Africa looks like a potential TS, and Gaston looks to be more Bad weather for the Leewards....
Time: 01:14:30Z
Coordinates: 27.3833N 73.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 736.5 mb (~ 21.75 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,076 meters (~ 6,811 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 930.2 mb (~ 27.47 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 127° at 15 knots (From the SE at ~ 17.2 mph)
Air Temp: 21.3°C (~ 70.3°F)
Dew Pt: 15.9°C (~ 60.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
I don't know if Earl is a Cat 5 or not....... but it Damed sure looks like it!!!!!

1823. MIKEYZ
Did I just see 929 mb?