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Hurricane warnings for Mexico; tornadoes and floods for the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 PM GMT on June 20, 2011

The outer spiral bands of intensifying Tropical Storm Beatriz have reached the coast of Mexico between Acapulco and Puerto Vallarta, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for the coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo northwestward to La Fortuna. Beatriz is headed to the northwest under the influence of the large trough of low pressure over the Midwest U.S. that is causing severe weather and flooding rains there. As Beatriz nears the coast Tuesday morning, the trough may have progressed far enough eastwards so that Beatriz wil miss making a direct hit on the coast, and instead turn west and move out to sea as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Regardless of whether the core of the storm makes landfall or not, the major threat from Beatriz will be heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8 inches will be common along the coast, and up to a foot of rain is likely in some mountainous regions, causing significant flooding and dangerous mudslides. NHC is giving Manzanillo a 5% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater; these odds drop to just 1% for Puerto Vallarta, and 8% for Barra Navidad. With ocean temperatures between 29 - 30°C and wind shear predicted to drop to 10 knots later today, there is no reason why Beatriz couldn't intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Tuesday. NHC is giving a 15% chance the Beatriz could intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit Beatriz this afternoon to gauge its strength. Satellite loops reveal that Beatriz has become more organized this morning, and Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Beatriz has built about 50% of an eyewall. Once this process is complete, more rapid strengthening is likely.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Beatriz taken at 8am EDT June 20, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Significant severe weather outbreak and flooding rains possible today in the Midwest
Severe thunderstorms developed along a warm front stretching from Eastern Colorado through Nebraska and into Iowa and Wisconsin last night. The result was an active evening with numerous severe thunderstorm, tornado, and flash flood warnings. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. Many other locations reported large hail and winds greater than 60 miles per hour, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged thirteen preliminary tornado reports in Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The large, slow-moving low pressure system responsible for yesterday's severe weather will touch off a new round of severe weather this afternoon, and the Storm Prediction Center has placed Eastern Nebraska, Western Iowa, and portions of three other states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather. Baseball and softball-sized hail is likely in some of the stronger supercell thunderstorms that form, and there is also the risk of a few strong EF-2 and EF-3 tornadoes.



Figure 2. Today's severe risk outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Also of concern is the large area of 2 - 4 inches of rain this storm is likely to bring to the Missouri River watershed this week. As I discussed in detail in Friday's post, the flood control system on the Missouri River is being strained beyond its designed limits, and this week's rains are likely to worsen existing flooding and potentially cause new levee breaches on the river.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the coming five days (top image) shows that a large region of 2 - 4 inches is expected over the Missouri River watershed (bottom image.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC and Wikipedia.

Critical fire conditions to give Arizona a break this week
Powerful southwest winds gusting to 50 mph affected much of Arizona yesterday, producing some of the worst fire conditions the parched state has seen all year. Sierra Vista in Southeast Arizona experienced sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 50 mph yesterday, causing a major spread of the dangerous Monument Fire. With air temperatures of 94° and a humidity of just 13%, it was a tough day for firefighting. The 33-square mile fire jumped fire control lines and surged into the town, forcing the evacuation of thousands of people. However, after a difficult 4-day stretch of critical fire conditions, the winds will give Arizona a break today. Winds under 10 mph are expected in Sierra Vista, and strong winds and critical fire conditions are not expected in the state until at least Friday, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This respite should give firefighters a chance to gain the upper hand on the three significant fires burning in the eastern part of the state. Arizona's largest fire on record, the massive 800-square mile Wallow Fire, should be mostly contained by the end of the week if this forecast holds up. According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the Wallow Fire is a long way from being the largest fire in U.S. history. That distinction belongs to the great Peshtigo Fire of 1871, which burned 5,938 square miles of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, with no tropical cyclones predicted over the next seven days by the reliable computer models.

Jeff Masters
Questionable Building Site!
Questionable Building Site!
From the first time I saw this house starting to go up I questioned whether this was a safe place. Turns out "not this year."
Monument Fire, Tuesday
Monument Fire, Tuesday
The Monument Fire near Sierra Vista looked like this from Bisbee 20 miles away at sunset Tuesday June 14.

Tornado Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weatherh98:


put the bobicus breckicus up there with viper aand nash with his marker and nash wins
Nash used his BRAIN to predict. Unplug the computer and today's experts are truly in the dark.
Sorry about dat I had to go stand in the RAIN for a few min. strangest thing could hear the birds chirping dont usaly see that when it rains.



Link
Quoting FrankZapper:
Nash used his BRAIN to predict. Unplug the computer and today's experts are truly in the dark.


brains are the best super computers
The Marines are coming!!! Hide your daughters...
Link
The Atlantic doesn't seem to have a happy medium when it comes to when the season begins. Aside from the 90s, it seems that seasons with their first 'A' storm in July are somewhat uncommon. The most recent example is 2002. Just throwing that out there.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!! big wave coming off of Eastern Atlantic
soon!!


Jason, If it were a few weeks late I might be a bit concerned about that wave.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Mean, can't be nothing good with that.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Nash used his BRAIN to predict. Unplug the computer and today's experts are truly in the dark.


Hey Genius, try and make it through MET school, then see how that whole bashing the experts thing works for ya...
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!! big wave coming off of Eastern Atlantic
soon!!


This one coming off Africa seems to be on a mission!
Has anyone figured out yet exactly what's going on in the image in post #290 yet?
It looks to me like there's some ridge pumping going on.
It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.
Pat...Did I ever tell you I have my dad's dress sword framed in a shadow box hanging in my living room?
Loop Current and Eddy Circulation Studies

P.I: Prof Nan Walker


The Gulf Loop Current is one of the most dynamic ocean currents in the world. Frontal eddy cyclones, regions of vigorous upwelling, develop along its margin in association with current meanders, increasing current speeds and impacting flow even in 3000 m of water. At irregular intervals, large warm eddies separate from the Loop Current and move westward, dissipating over many months along the Texas and Mexican coasts. The Loop Current and its eddies are large reservoirs of heat that have the capability to intensify hurricanes and tropical storms crossing the Gulf. Using infrared measurements from the GOES-East satellite, a "cloud eraser" was developed that has enabled us to track and study the frontal eddy cyclones that move rapidly (35 km/day) around the margin of the Loop Current. More recently we have been integrating GOES sea surface temperature data with satellite sea surface height data (from Dr. Robert Leben, CCAR) to improve our capabilities for studying the complex eddy field in the Gulf. Our funding for this research comes mainly from the Minerals Management Service. Visit the SST/SSH image archives and animation page. Publications of interest include Walker et al. (2003), Walker et al. (2005) , and Walker et al. (2006).

Image Archives of Interest

Gulf of Mexico GOES SST/SSH products (daily, weekly and movie loops)
Take a look at this warning for the storms heading into the Omaha metro area.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAC085-NEC025-053-055-131-153-155-177-210130-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110621T0130Z/
HARRISON IA-CASS NE-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-OTOE NE-SARPY NE-SAUNDERS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
EASTERN SAUNDERS...SARPY...NORTH CENTRAL OTOE...DOUGLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
INGLEWOOD TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SPOTTERS ESTIMATED 75 MPH WINDS AT VENICE ALONG HIGHWAY 92.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...VALLEY...CEDAR CREEK...SPRINGFIELD...MURRAY...WATERLOO...
ELKHORN...MILLARD...ARLINGTON...PLATTSMOUTH...PAPI LLION...LA
VISTA...RALSTON...OFFUTT AFB...BELLEVUE...KENNARD...COUNCIL
BLUFFS...BLAIR...FORT CALHOUN AND CHALCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS
DOORS. THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DAMAGE TREES AND CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9629 4097 9646 4104 9646 4105 9653
4133 9676 4168 9616 4170 9610 4151 9597
4149 9602 4143 9593 4134 9596 4131 9587
4127 9590 4130 9592 4130 9593 4119 9593
4118 9584 4116 9588 4106 9588 4096 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 222DEG 34KT 4144 9651 4095 9607
WIND...HAIL 75MPH 1.00IN
Quoting presslord:
Pat...Did I ever tell you I have my dad's dress sword framed in a shadow box hanging in my living room?



No u dint,,and Im gonna dock ya one Dress.

Those are fine Display items and I bet it looks cool as all get out.

Marine non-commissioned officers' sword, 1859-present
It is possible, although unlikely at this time, that Beatriz has reached her peak. Land interaction is only going to be a bigger problem from here on out, and by tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, it will begin to enter significantly cooler waters and dry air.

I doubt this system will become a Category 2 hurricane, and I may have to trim back my 85-90 mph peak to more like 75-80 mph.
This isitLink
Indeed,,the Officers one is swankier than the NCO Enlisted one..


They always use a "O" sword to cut the cake every Nov 10
Situation Update No. 1
On 20.06.2011 at 17:09 GMT+2

Many drivers trying to cross from southeast Nebraska into Missouri and Iowa on Monday found bridges closed for more than 100 miles for safety reasons due to flooding and heavier water flows on the Missouri River. Authorities said water flowing over two levees in northwest Missouri's Holt and Atchison counties on Sunday closed U.S. Highways 159 and 136 in western Missouri, also affecting bridge crossings at Rulo and Brownville in southeastern Nebraska. The heavily used Nebraska Highway 2 bridge at Nebraska City, Nebraska, was closed earlier due to high water on I-29 on the Iowa side of the river. This means that all Missouri River bridges between Plattsmouth, Neb., just south of Omaha, to St. Joseph, Mo. are now closed, a distance of about 112 miles. The closures coincided with stepped-up releases of water from overflowing reservoirs much further north on the swollen river by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is trying to manage record flood waters this season in the Plains. The Corps boosted water releases over the weekend from two dams -- Oahe above Pierre, South Dakota's capital, and Big Bend Dam just downstream from that -- to make room for more flows expected potentially heavy coming rains.

In North Dakota, residents braced as Garrison Dam above the state capital at Bismarck and nearby Mandan on Monday planned to release a sustained peak flow of 150,000 cubic feet per second. "This 72 hours that we are in right now with the 150,000 cubic feet per second is probably the most critical period," Bismarck Mayor John Warford told reporters on Monday morning. "This is the point in time when our levees are tested." Oahe Dam flows were running at 158,000 cubic feet per second on Monday. The target is 160,000, set by the Corps for releases starting Sunday. Heavy rains and snow melt along the Missouri River valley have flooded areas from Montana through Missouri, forcing residents to shore up protections, raise temporary levees and evacuate their homes. Peak releases are planned until at least mid-August and high flows are expected until December. The North Dakota National Guard reported 21 responses over the weekend for spot levee repairs in the Bismarck area.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Has anyone figured out yet exactly what's going on in the image in post #290 yet?
It looks to me like there's some ridge pumping going on.


They are just Pyro clouds formed when there is intense heating at the surface (Like an explosion, or in this case, a fire).
Quoting Patrap:
Indeed,,the Officers one is swankier than the NCO Enlisted one..


hey always use a "O" sword to cut the cake every Nov 10



my back side is intimately familiar with his swagger stick...which has been banned as an instrument of torture...which, in my case, it was ;-)
Quoting presslord:
The Marines are coming!!! Hide your daughters...
Link

Cool. I like this line:

CNN is a notorious focal point for Pentagon psyops.
They completed the Bonnet Carre Spillway closing this morning Skye.

Ouch...
Quoting Patrap:
They completed the Bonnet Carre Spillway closing this morning Skye.

Posted on June 20, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Updated today at 8:01 PM

Scott Satchfield / Eyewitness News

NEW ORLEANS -- When it comes to the current oyster crop, workers at Deanie's Seafood Restaurant like what they're seeing.

"We've been getting some nice, fat oysters and they look good for right now," said general manager Darren Chifici.

But, like others in the seafood industry, Chifici has questions about future supplies.

"The long-term effects of what the oil spill did and also the hurricanes over the years -- destroying the beds,” he said. “So, it's really a long-term outlook of, how long this thing's gonna take to recover, and if they're gonna recover."

The most pressing concern for industry leaders now is just how much damage freshwater moving through the Morganza and Bonnet Carre spillways caused to some of the state's most productive beds.

Monday, the governor's Oyster Advisory Committee met amid positive circumstances, as crews closed the remaining Bonnet Carre floodgates.

"That's good news, but we've already lost a substantial amount of resource in the central part of the state and the far eastern part of the state," said committee member Mike Voisin.

Voisin said the BP oil spill cut the state's oyster production in half, while the recent freshwater infiltration, he estimated, knocked it back at least another 30 percent.

Voisin worries some oystermen may be put out of business.

"My opinion is that this latest flood has created the straw that's broken a few of the camels’ backs,” he said. “I think we're gonna lose some small farmers. It's the first time I've felt that. You know, we've been through Katrina, Rita, Gustav, Ike, Deepwater Horizon, but this is just one more thing on top of all of that."

But work is underway to help.

Biologists are using new technologies to re-seed oyster beds, deploying more than 100 million larvae and half a million immature oysters.

For Randy Pausina with the state Wildlife and Fisheries Department, it's a silver lining in a tough situation.

"There's no playbooks on the shelves for a lot of these things that have been happening to us, so we've learned a lot, and that's a good thing for us to be able to respond in the future," Pausina said.

As for what you can expect when ordering oysters in the coming months, Voisin believes restaurants will continue having access to plenty of Louisiana oysters, although he expects prices to go up by this fall.
Either the core relocated and is headed straight into the coast or this is about to become really big.
Quoting alfabob:


An eye will appear within the next few hours, and the National Hurricane Center will upgrade it to a weak Category 1 hurricane, but it does not have much more potential that an 80 mph system.

Beatriz (EP02) Making a move inland tonight..




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


An eye will appear within the next few hours, and the National Hurricane Center will upgrade it to a weak Category 1 hurricane, but it does not have much more potential that an 80 mph system.


Well last I could find it, there was a swirl in the RB images that was to the SW of the convection. So if it is now at the center of convection then it moved straight north over the past 6 or so hours. Otherwise this thing is about to pull a bunch of convection around the real core. Either way we will know soon enough.
Anyone else notice the vorticity about to move into the western Caribbean (could be mid-level but it is definitely there)? Pressure continues to drop in the BOC and other areas in that region.
the itcz is very active and has started to migrate north, this early part of the season
Quoting FrankZapper:
It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.



Most definitely
the way things are beginning to gel, it appears there will be an early start to cape verde season
Quoting FrankZapper:
Posted on June 20, 2011 at 5:44 PM

Updated today at 8:01 PM

Scott Satchfield / Eyewitness News

NEW ORLEANS -- When it comes to the current oyster crop, workers at Deanie's Seafood Restaurant like what they're seeing.

"We've been getting some nice, fat oysters and they look good for right now," said general manager Darren Chifici.

But, like others in the seafood industry, Chifici has questions about future supplies.

"The long-term effects of what the oil spill did and also the hurricanes over the years -- destroying the beds,” he said. “So, it's really a long-term outlook of, how long this thing's gonna take to recover, and if they're gonna recover."

The most pressing concern for industry leaders now is just how much damage freshwater moving through the Morganza and Bonnet Carre spillways caused to some of the state's most productive beds.

Monday, the governor's Oyster Advisory Committee met amid positive circumstances, as crews closed the remaining Bonnet Carre floodgates.

"That's good news, but we've already lost a substantial amount of resource in the central part of the state and the far eastern part of the state," said committee member Mike Voisin.

Voisin said the BP oil spill cut the state's oyster production in half, while the recent freshwater infiltration, he estimated, knocked it back at least another 30 percent.

Voisin worries some oystermen may be put out of business.

"My opinion is that this latest flood has created the straw that's broken a few of the camels’ backs,” he said. “I think we're gonna lose some small farmers. It's the first time I've felt that. You know, we've been through Katrina, Rita,
Gustav, Ike, Deepwater Horizon, but this is just one more thing on top of all of that."

But work is underway to help.

Biologists are using new technologies to re-seed oyster beds, deploying more than 100 million larvae and half a
million immature oysters.

For Randy Pausina with the state Wildlife and Fisheries Department, it's a silver lining in a tough situation.

"There's no playbooks on the
shelves for a lot of these things that have been happening to us, so we've learned a lot,
and that's a good thing for us to be able to respond in the future," Pausina
said.

As for what you can expect when ordering oysters in the coming months,
Voisin believes restaurants will continue having access to plenty of Louisiana oysters,
although he expects prices to go up by this fall.


If it ain't in bucktown, it ain't the real deanies
Quoting FrankZapper:
It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.


At our local NBC affiliate we used to have an excellent meteorologist named "Too Tall" Tom Szymanski and although he used the models a lot, he used them to GUIDE his forecasts, not make the forecasts for him. Sadly they fired him because it was cheaper to hire a talking head who just regurgitated what the models said.
Quoting alfabob:
Anyone else notice the vorticity about to move into the western Caribbean (could be mid-level but it is definitely there)? Pressure continues to drop in the BOC and other areas in that region.


Wouldn't the outflow from Beatriz prohibit any development in that area?
Quoting Patrap:


80% of Marines ar5e REMF's
Quoting IFuSAYso:


80% of Marines ar5e REMF's


It's funny how you can be a Marine cook, aircraft mechanic and be a bad ass. Recon out front!
Quoting FrankZapper:
It's sad to say, but the NHC seems to take the consensus of the Computers as their official track. If the Computers don't agree then they just throw up a track and call it "low confidence". Nash never did that. He told you where it was going. We miss you Nash.


I have to agree with you. They never will stick their neck out with a personal opinion. It is all about the models. Same goes for intensity. The majority of the time they will under forecast intensity based on computer guidance.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Wouldn't the outflow from Beatriz prohibit any development in that area?

I've been looking at that, but the outflow hasn't really reached it yet; although it would inhibit the formation of an anti-cyclone in the near future. Obviously anything in that area would need some time to develop though, just something to keep an eye on. CIMSS shows no vorticity what so ever, not a surprise.
547. fuzed
wow, what a line
Quoting IceCoast:
Take a look at this warning for the storms heading into the Omaha metro area.


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

IAC085-NEC025-053-055-131-153-155-177-210130-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0173.000000T0000Z-110621T0130Z/
HARRISON IA-CASS NE-DODGE NE-DOUGLAS NE-OTOE NE-SARPY NE-SAUNDERS NE-
WASHINGTON NE-
758 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
EASTERN SAUNDERS...SARPY...NORTH CENTRAL OTOE...DOUGLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DODGE...CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 756 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
INGLEWOOD TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SPOTTERS ESTIMATED 75 MPH WINDS AT VENICE ALONG HIGHWAY 92.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW!


LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OMAHA...VALLEY...CEDAR CREEK...SPRINGFIELD...MURRAY...WATERLOO...
ELKHORN...MILLARD...ARLINGTON...PLATTSMOUTH...PAPI LLION...LA
VISTA...RALSTON...OFFUTT AFB...BELLEVUE...KENNARD...COUNCIL
BLUFFS...BLAIR...FORT CALHOUN AND CHALCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS
DOORS. THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DAMAGE TREES AND CAUSE
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9629 4097 9646 4104 9646 4105 9653
4133 9676 4168 9616 4170 9610 4151 9597
4149 9602 4143 9593 4134 9596 4131 9587
4127 9590 4130 9592 4130 9593 4119 9593
4118 9584 4116 9588 4106 9588 4096 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 222DEG 34KT 4144 9651 4095 9607
WIND...HAIL 75MPH 1.00IN


That storm warning is overkill, Jim Cantore was live and it was a much lamer storm, at least where he was, then our typical sea breeze storms in Florida. He was right in the Omaha area.

I'm not saying there aren't areas that aren't getting destructive winds, but it sounds like its more widespread and worse than it is.


Like I always say, cold front thunderstorms are usually more bark then bite unless they produce tornadoes. I have had many spring and winter frontal squall lines in Florida that have had dozens of warnings like that and they never live up to the typical summer storm that don't get any attention! lol


Like i said, I'm not saying this storm isn't producing some serious winds and could be dangerous if you're in a car or mobile home, or outside, but it sounds worse than it is.

Now you wanna talk a serious storm, that video of a microburst in Norman, OK that Neapolitan posted a few days ago, THAT was a dangerous thunderstorm!
Quoting alfabob:

I've been looking at that, but the outflow hasn't really reached it yet; although it would inhibit the formation of an anti-cyclone in the near future. Obviously anything in that area would need some time to develop though, just something to keep an eye on. CIMSS shows no vorticity what so ever, not a surprise.


Thx.
Quoting Jedkins01:


That storm warning is overkill, Jim Cantore was live and it was a much lamer storm, at least where he was, then our typical sea breeze storms in Florida. He was right in the Omaha area.

I'm not saying there aren't areas that aren't getting destructive winds, but it sounds like its more widespread and worse than it is.


Like I always say, cold front thunderstorms are usually more bark then bite unless they produce tornadoes. I have had many spring and winter frontal squall lines in Florida that have had dozens of warnings like that and they never live up to the typical summer storm that doesn't get any attention! lol


Like i said, I'm not saying this storm isn't producing some serious winds and could be dangerous if you're in a car or mobile home, or outside, but it sounds worse than it is.

Now you wanna talk a serious storm, that video of a microburst in Norman, OK that Neapolitan posted a few days ago, THAT was a dangerous thunderstorm!


Well the airport reported a gust of 68mph, that sounds pretty serious to me. Cantore missed the worst part of the bow echo, it went to the north side of the city.
Palo Pinto
Tornado Warning
Statement as of 8:45 PM CDT on June 20, 2011

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern Palo Pinto County in north central Texas...
southeastern Young County in north central Texas...

* until 915 PM CDT

* at 845 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a tornado near
Possum Kingdom State Park... moving east at 45 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Graford around 905 PM CDT...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Move to an interior bathroom... closet... or hallway on the lowest
floor of your building. Cover yourself with blankets... pillows... or a
mattress for protection.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT
Monday evening for north central Texas.


Lat... Lon 3296 9862 3302 9855 3306 9843 3301 9842
3300 9806 3288 9806 3281 9857 3295 9858
time... Mot... loc 0145z 257deg 40kt 3292 9851

This is UGLY!!!!

From rags to oh crap.
This bow echo in SD looks very strong, likely has 70mph + winds.
Link

Eppley Airfield in Omaha reported wind gust of 69mph. Worst went to the north of Cantore.
The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Toa Alta... Vega Alta... Dorado... Manati... Vega Baja and
Toa Baja

* until 1215 am AST

* at 908 PM AST... Doppler radar estimated heavy rain in the advisory
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move west along the
north central sections of Puerto Rico. These showers may produce
between 1 to 2 inches of rain before diminish or move away from the
warned area.


Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650


EM
Just one day. Just one. Without rain. But no.
i do not like the red next to the east coast there.
here the low off the east coast!!
Quoting PcolaDan:
This is UGLY!!!!


Nasty!
I've been lurking all day. And man, the weather in the US is getting nastier every day.

Goodnight.
Quoting PcolaDan:
This is UGLY!!!!



That line of storms looks very violent, probably micro burts to hurricane force, maybe 80 mph in isolated spots. At least 60 throughout the whole thing I would think.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
i do not like the red next to the east coast there.

this has been happening for a few weeks, nothing to worry about
Quoting alfabob:

I've been looking at that, but the outflow hasn't really reached it yet; although it would inhibit the formation of an anti-cyclone in the near future. Obviously anything in that area would need some time to develop though, just something to keep an eye on. CIMSS shows no vorticity what so ever, not a surprise.


Might be seeing this

a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks
563. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB...WRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 526...

VALID 210202Z - 210300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 526 CONTINUES.

NWD-PROPAGATING PORTION OF 600 MILE LONG QLCS HAS BOWED ACROSS SERN
SD.
..WITH COMMA HEAD CENTERED OVER HUTCHINSON COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
CURRENT PROPAGATION WILL RESULT IN MOVEMENT INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH NRN EXTENT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
DEVELOP N OF WW 526...AND MAY NECESSITATE A WFO WW EXTENSION.

FARTHER S...TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL AXIS JUST E OF BOWING SEGMENT THAT RECENTLY PASSED ALONG AND
N OF THE OMAHA METRO AREA WITH MEASURED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WITH A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LYING S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EVIDENT IN DES MOINES VWP
DATA...GREATEST RELATIVE DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD EVOLVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-80 TO US-20 CORRIDORS IN W-CNTRL IA.

..GRAMS.. 06/21/2011
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks


Well, cause it's June. Not much is gonna happen in June.
565. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Toa Alta... Vega Alta... Dorado... Manati... Vega Baja and
Toa Baja

* until 1215 am AST

* at 908 PM AST... Doppler radar estimated heavy rain in the advisory
area. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move west along the
north central sections of Puerto Rico. These showers may produce
between 1 to 2 inches of rain before diminish or move away from the
warned area.


Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


Lat... Lon 1852 6638 1843 6611 1835 6615 1848 6650


EM
Just one day. Just one. Without rain. But no.


Well of course not. This rainy season start has been ridiculous.
Quoting blsealevel:


Might be seeing this


It was to the east of Yucatan but there are a lot of mid-level clouds mixed in with the low so it is difficult to tell. Could be a dissipating mid-level vorticity left over from t-storms, I just saw something spinning and winds were generally converging in that location. Beatriz on the other-hand looks at least like a cat 1 now, maybe getting near high-end cat 1.



Why do the dates on the blog say June 21st? Did I hit a time warp and miss today for some reason??
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
here the low off the east coast!!


purely cold core, no development expected.
Quoting spayandneuter:
Why do the dates on the blog say June 21st? Did I hit a time warp and miss today for some reason??


You may not have set it to your time zone. Bet it says 02:30 UTC also for your post.
Quoting alfabob:

It was to the east of Yucatan but there are a lot of mid-level clouds mixed in with the low so it is difficult to tell. Could be a dissipating mid-level vorticity left over from t-storms, I just saw something spinning and winds were generally converging in that location. Beatriz on the other-hand looks at least like a cat 1 now, maybe getting near high-end cat 1.





Yep it is a High end Cat 1 atleast it is beening shown on this anyway

Link
u guys need rain in texas not tornadoes geez, poor guys can't get break at all down there.
Sorry looked at that wrong just over cat 1 on that scale but then again it does look alittle stronger could just be the convection wrap also
Quoting blsealevel:


Yep it is a High end Cat 1 atleast it is beening shown on this anyway

Link

Wow that took off fast, 0z analysis also which was right before it expanded into it's current self; so if its based on imagery then it should be going higher on the next update. Cat 2 is very possible over night, cat 3 is borderline possible depending on if it continues into the coast or takes that weak turn; still in those 29-30C SST.
look like to me Beatriz going to hit land!! only be a cat 1 hurricane with winds up to 75 mph. will not be a cat 2 hurricane because of land!!
Quoting alfabob:

Wow that took off fast, 0z analysis also which was right before it expanded into it's current self; so if its based on imagery then it should be going higher on the next update.


Depends on how far inland it goes i just dont see it getting much stronger being that close to the land
Then again i was never very good at forcasting these things.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:


Im sorry but that music needs to put with a much stronger storm like wilma or ivan.........
If you all didn't know, Hurricane Beatriz is affecting the Mexican coastline at this time. :)

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0%uFFFDN 103.5%uFFFDW
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb

Should peak either here at 75 mph, or maybe 80 mph, but no Category 2 definitely.
The part where the guy sounds like he is gagging on somethng needs to have a mean looking eye wall showing not some weak tropical storm
iowa, nebraska, minnesota, south dakota that is some kinda front what a sin.I thought those types of convective systems only blossomed up from the day time heating boy was i wrong.If my neice ever saw a warning come up on the tv like that to grab pillows matreses etc she would be no good.She would probably pee her pants then you would have to physically pick her up and take her to the basement.I am stunned that wasn't there earlier today its just plain huge.
Where is the NHC pulling these #'s from? There is no way this is a borderline cat 1, watching it wrap that convection around on rainbow indicates at least a moderate to high cat 1. No way it only gained 5mph with that much structural improvement, it is physically impossible.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you all didn't know, Hurricane Beatriz is affecting the Mexican coastline at this time. :)

...BEATRIZ BECOMES A HURRICANE...CENTER VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...

8:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.0�N 103.5�W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb


Yes it is, I know its pushing some water on the coast hope it don't get to bad for them even a cat 1 can cause damage depending on the Terran.
I'm calling it a night, later gators.
Quoting alfabob:
Where is the NHC pulling these #'s from? There is no way this is a borderline cat 1, watching it wrap that convection around on rainbow indicates at least a moderate to high cat 1. No way it only gained 5mph with that much structural improvement, it is physically impossible.


They recognized that the system is much better organized
Quoting Hurricanes101:


They recognized that the system is much better organized

I just don't get why they are playing games when this is right next to the coast; they pretty much agree with the two scenarios I've been saying (either landfall or further intensification), but there's no reason not to properly estimate the current winds.

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS. IF THE CENTER DOES NOT CROSS THE COAST...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BEATRIZ TO MOVE INLAND...IN WHICH CASE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WOULD BE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST PRESUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY SO RAPID WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS.
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
a whole lot of nuttin in the tropiks

yep thats it nuttin
nuttin at all
move along
nuttin to see here


Second volcanic ash cloud forces Qantas, Jetstar, Virgin and Tiger flight cancellations in Sydney, Melbourne and across Australia


A VOLCANIC ash cloud from Chile is causing even more disruption on its second lap of the world with Australian airlines cancelling hundreds of flights in and out of Sydney, Canberra, Adelaide and Melbourne.

Denser and larger, the cloud has wrapped around a low pressure system moving across the country’s south-east posing a real safety risk for airline operation.

Jetstar and Virgin Australia have extended flight cancellations after morning risk assessment meetings and advice from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Jetstar will not fly in or out of Sydney and Newcastle from 3pm today and Virgin Australia has cancelled all Sydney and Melbourne services from 4pm.
Qantas has also suspended all of its Canberra flights from midday and Sydney from 3pm, in addition to all Adelaide services.

Travellers through Brisbane are urged to stay in touch with their airlines, with anticipated cancellations this afternoon.

International services to and from Sydney are currently under review.

QF1 from Sydney to Bangkok and London, QF5 from Sydney to Singapore and Frankfurt and QF31 from Sydney to Singapore and London will all depart from Sydney at 2.15pm today as planned.

Johannesburg destined services will operate with a refuelling stop in Perth and Buenos Aires services destined for Sydney may be subject to a refuelling stop in Papeete.

Tiger Airways, whose aircraft are currently hangared in Melbourne and Adelaide, is not flying at all today and will make a decision about tomorrow’s services later this afternoon.

Spokeswoman Vanessa Regan said they had taken the difficult decision not to fly any services in Australia today because of the ash cloud.

“Our risk assessment team has just finished its morning meeting and we’ve decided to cancel all services today. We sincerely regret any inconvenience to passengers but safety must come first,” said Ms Regan.

The impact of the ash cloud is expected to be even greater than last week, when flights to and from Melbourne and Hobart were disrupted and to a lesser extent those to Adelaide and Perth.
Bus company Greyhound Australia is cashing in on the aviation chaos, tripling the number of services running out of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra.

Chief Operating Officer Tony Hopkins said extra services will run from all affected areas until the ash plume passes.

“We have had an extraordinary amount of calls from people needing to travel so we have put extra services on,” Mr Hopkins said.

“We are monitoring the situation every 15 minutes and are putting on extra services to meet the demand.”

Airservices Australia is monitoring the new ash cloud, which it says has the potential to impact air travel in southeast Australia over the next 48 hours.

The latest Airservices Australia updates here.

The Puyehue volcano in Chile began erupting on 4 June and ash is now passing over Australia for a second time.

The new cloud is denser and larger than the cloud that halted Australian flights last week, and is expected to linger longer than its predecessor.

It is spread in a large band below Australia and is tipped to move to the northeast and east over the next few days, according to Airservices.

A Qantas spokesman said the airline put on five early flights before 6.30am and was trying to contact passengers last night.

"The Qantas approach to flying is a high standard of safety and we put safety before schedule," he said.

The head of the Bureau of Meteorology's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) in Darwin , Andrew Tupper, said he expected the ash would cause disruption.

"It will obviously prevent aircraft flying at the altitude of the cloud . . . how they cope with that is their decision," he said.

"It's not like we have got masses of ash coming over to blanket the continent at lower levels. It is just a high level cloud that happens to be at an inconvenient level for flying."

Last week the ash cloud forced Qantas and Jetstar to cancel flights from Adelaide but Virgin continued to fly.

Virgin Group executive of operations Sean Donohue said the decision followed the latest advice from the VAAC.

"The current forecast suggests the ash plume will be below 20,000 feet over Adelaide and Mildura tomorrow. With this in mind we are suspending these services tomorrow," Mr Donohue said.

Adelaide Airport manager John McArdle said he did not expect international flights to be cancelled and the airport was doing its best to deal with the airlines' decisions.

"There is always room for improvement, but we learned some lessons from last time," he said.

An estimated 40,000 travellers in Australia were affected by the delays last week.

YOUR FLIGHTS AT A GLANCE

Qantas

All flights to and from Adelaide and Port Lincoln have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Canberra will be cancelled from 12pm (AEST).

All domestic flights to and from Sydney will be cancelled from 3pm.

The status of Melbourne flights still to be confirmed.



Jet Star

All flights to and from Adelaide have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Sydney and Newcastle will be cancelled from 3pm.

A flight between Melbourne to Perth at 1.45pm and a flight from Perth to Melbourne at 1.20pm (AWST) have both been cancelled.



Virgin Australia

All flights to and from Adelaide and Mildura have been cancelled.

All flights to and from Sydney and Melbourne will be cancelled from 4pm.

Flights cancelled to and from NSW regional centres of Newcastle, Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour.

Tiger Airways

No flights



It's going to be a quiet night here in Sydney, No air traffic at all. Only flights out will be selected international flights. Sydney is one of the most busiest airports in the southern hemisphere. Melbourne is a close 2nd.
Whats the chances of Beatriz or her remnants making it to the BOC? Could the moisture from Beatriz give Tx a good soaking?
Quoting sunlinepr:


The storm has gone Rasta. (580) And Beatriz is in the psychedelic phase. (585)
02E has already made landfall or will do so very soon
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots
Quoting AussieStorm:
Whats the chances of Beatriz or her remnants making it to the BOC? Could the moisture from Beatriz give Tx a good soaking?

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.
02E/H/B/C1
NEAR LANDFALL
MARK
18.51N/104.5W
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST June 21 2011
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 11.0N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Can't believe that's still around, it's one ugly TD.
Quoting alfabob:

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.

From that image i can see the outflow is already in the BOC/W GOM
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION BOB02-2011
5:30 AM IST June 21 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over East Madhya Pradesh & Adjoining East Uttar Pradesh And Chhattisgarh.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB02-2011 over southeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand moved northwestwards and lays centered over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, or about 100 km southwest of Varanasi (Uttar Pradesh) and 120 km east of Riwa (Madhya Pradesh).

The system would move west-northwestwards and weaken gradually.
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.
The Extreme Rain Event in the PLatte Valley June 19/20, 2011


This event begins last night west of these images , before this monster ever showed up . From east of Cheyenne to nearly Kimball , Nebraska there was a 2 to 3 inch rain shield with large areas getting 5 to 6 inches of rain. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. In Cheyenne they broke a daily record of 58 years . 1.4 inches beating .68 back in 1953.

The rain shield tonight is much larger, and all that red is 4 to 5 inches of rain. The lavender is 8 inch rainfall. This is the forth one of these I have seen in the last 2 weeks.

http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/_news/2011/06/20 /6903464-the-extreme-rain-event-in-the-platte-vall ey-june-1920-2011

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.

Yep
Tropical Disturbance 99W (Pre-FALCON)








  • Quoting ColoradoBob1:
The Extreme Rain Event in the PLatte Valley June 19/20, 2011


This event begins last night west of these images , before this monster ever showed up . From east of Cheyenne to nearly Kimball , Nebraska there was a 2 to 3 inch rain shield with large areas getting 5 to 6 inches of rain. Hail to the size of baseballs and winds to 77 miles per hour were reported at Champion and Imperial, Nebraska. In Cheyenne they broke a daily record of 58 years . 1.4 inches beating .68 back in 1953.

The rain shield tonight is much larger, and all that red is 4 to 5 inches of rain. The lavender is 8 inch rainfall. This is the forth one of these I have seen in the last 2 weeks.

http://coloradobob1.newsvine.com/_news/2011/06/20 /6903464-the-extreme-rain-event-in-the-platte-vall ey-june-1920-2011



This line is crossing areas that have received a foot of rain in the last 2 weeks.
160 new records yesterday, not one tie. -
RINGSTED Ia. 5.07 in
LA CRESCENT DAM Mn. 4.3 in
VIROQUA Wi. 5.32 in
GASSAWAY Wv. 3.35 in

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/daily/p rcp/2011/06/19?sts[]=US#records_look_up
610. JRRP
wao!! another hurricane
Quoting JRRP:
wao!! another hurricane

Where???? Oh I see it

No I don't
E-2 85VIL 72dBZ





he National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southwestern Denton County in north central Texas...
northern Tarrant County in north central Texas...

* until midnight CDT

* at 1059 PM CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing large destructive hail up
to the size of baseballs... and damaging winds in excess of 60
mph. This storm was located 8 miles west of Azle... and moving
east at 35 mph.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Azle and Pelican Bay around 1110 PM...
Lakeside and Pecan Acres around 1115 PM...
Eagle Mountain... Lake Worth and Westworth around 1120 PM...
Saginaw... Sansom Park and River Oaks around 1125 PM...

This will impact the following interstates...
I-35w between mile markers 56 and 77...
I-820 between mile markers 10 and 25.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

For your protection move to a sturdy shelter and stay away from
windows until the storm has passed.
615. DDR
The last 3 days have yielded more than 4 inches of rain @ my location in Trinidad,yet another 3-4 inches from the 0z gfs.
Probably the worst case scenario for Mexico right now; its following the path NHC has up, which is not moving inland. This will allow for further intensification while basically having a landfall for up to 36 hours. I'm basing this off of the previous 4 - 5 images so things could change in terms of steering, but its been in 30C the entire time.
617. DDR
we are really waterlogged,won't take much for a big flood event here.
Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.
621. Tygor
Quoting weatherganny:
Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.


You should know better than to wish for rain in Texas, because it isn't coming here. All kidding aside half the state should see at least 1/4" this week.
Quoting weatherganny:
Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.

Conditions were too hostile for anything to really form mostly due to the size of Beatriz's wind field and the outflow; though conditions are becoming more favorable in the entire region and moisture in the gulf has continued to increased.
Quoting weatherganny:
Okay... I am confused ...I thought we were supposed to have some "action" in the SW gulf that was going to move North into Texas. I need rain bad...but dont want to wish toohard because I ONLY want rain.


Maybe tomorrow it will surely look better than this!
Looking pretty puny right now....

Quoting Tygor:


You should know better than to wish for rain in Texas, because it isn't coming here. All kidding aside half the state should see at least 1/4" this week.

Yea you are right. I should know better but I am getting desperate. ALL of my gardens are dying and I have just gave up on most of them. I it just too hot here!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Maybe tomorrow it will surely look better than this!
Looking pretty puny right now....




I hope so, because you are right that is PUNY!
Quoting alfabob:

Conditions were too hostile for anything to really form mostly due to the size of Beatriz's wind field and the outflow; though conditions are becoming more favorable in the entire region and moisture in the gulf has continued to increased.

Thanks for the info...
Eye
628. DDR
ITCZ action tonight again
may end up with 6 more inches by week's end.
Link
Quoting Tygor:


You should know better than to wish for rain in Texas, because it isn't coming here. All kidding aside half the state should see at least 1/4" this week.
Half the state if your lucky. The News reported things are so bad that ranchers are selling their emaciated cattle at a loss.
In related news, Senator McCain today said illegals are starting a lot of the fires in his drought stricken State. Opponents called his statement hateful and untrue.
storm on land
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
storm on land

No landfall yet, eye is over water; but this could be worse than actual landfall (doesn't look like the eye of a weak cat 1 either).
633. Tygor
Quoting FrankZapper:
Half the state if your lucky. The News reported things are so bad that ranchers are selling their emaciated cattle at a loss.
In related news, Senator McCain today said illegals are starting a lot of the fires in his drought stricken State. Opponents called his statement hateful and untrue.


I don't really care about lawns/gardens etc., but I worry about the deer dying behind the house and the trees that have suddenly just started dropping their leaves here in San Antonio. I'm a transplant to San Antonio from Wisconsin, but I don't remember our trees dropping leaves in June (I could be completely misremembering though). Rain would be nice for our yard as we spent about 5k on it last year, but that's just money gone at this point. I would rather lose the money than burn the aquifer dry.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey guys, I just completed a blog entry on Beatriz. Please check it out.


Very good blog, Kori ! I agree... thinking that ole Beatriz is stealing our GOM rainmakers thunder.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey guys, I just completed a blog entry on Beatriz. Please check it out.
Yea, nice summary of Beatriz and tropics in general. Keep up the good work!
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Very good blog, Kori ! I agree... thinking that ole Beatriz is stealing our GOM rainmakers thunder.


Believe me, I'm wanting rain just as much as you. I'm in Louisiana, and the ground is exceptionally dry. Never seen anything like this.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Yea, nice summary of Beatriz and tropics in general. Keep up the good work!


Thanks!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Believe me, I'm wanting rain just as much as you. I'm in Louisiana, and the ground is exceptionally dry. Never seen anything like this.


I'm in MS and it's dry here but nothing like Texas and parts of La....I'm pulling for them....
Quoting Tygor
the trees that have suddenly just started dropping their leaves here in San Antonio

What you are seeing is the result of almost no rain this year. The trees are extremely stressed and many are dieing. It's the same over here in Beaumont. All the tallow trees are turning red and loosing their leaves.
631:not just quite
BEATRIZ STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
11:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.4°N 103.9°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
...BEATRIZ STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
11:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 20
Location: 18.4°N 103.9°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb
Wish there was some kind of doppler radar to look at out of Mexico.
1100 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011

...BEATRIZ STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 103.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.9 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT...AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH... 130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


There is a possibility of this going annular like Adrian, watch for T numbers to rapidly increase.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Wish there was some kind of doppler radar to look at out of Mexico.


Agreed!!

Great Job on your Blog Kori!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


Agreed!!

Great Job on your Blog Kori!!


Thanks!

Good evening, Ron. I hope you don't mind if I call you that?
closest radar site in mexico is not working at this time
652. Ylee
653. Ylee
Sorry, jason, I should've backtracked further...
Anyone have updated T numbers on Beatriz? The way the banding on the western side is being absorbed into that mass of convection indicates that it is trying to turn annular. The inflow is now being pushed along with the hurricane which will allow it to form in an environment productive for this type.

This heat wave and drought have Elway drinking again! :)

Evening TraumaBoyy. Hoping your night is quiet and full of coffee and donut breaks!
Morning folks 34w 6n looks pretty interesting no?
Dvorak Vmax is above 90kts now; so possible 110mph max winds but NHC is claiming 80. Way to go NHC, this is a moderate cat 2 not cat 1.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is possible, although unlikely at this time, that Beatriz has reached her peak. Land interaction is only going to be a bigger problem from here on out, and by tomorrow night/Wednesday morning, it will begin to enter significantly cooler waters and dry air.

I doubt this system will become a Category 2 hurricane, and I may have to trim back my 85-90 mph peak to more like 75-80 mph.
Agreed.

I was expecting a cat 2, perhaps high end cat 2 if it stayed further away from land. However, Beatrice has had plans of her own and has been hugging the coastline for a while now, and has come increasingly closer to land. At least 1/3rd of the storm is over land now. Not to mention the land is very rugged and mountainous. Additionally, this system is fairly large and larger systems can take a while to get well organized, as noted by the ragged looking core. So it makes sense that this system hasn't really intensified in the last 6hrs.


Since the storm is expected to move over cooler SSTs, a drier and stabler air mass, as well as increased interaction with land, I don't expect this storm to become much stronger. If it continues on a more eastern or northern course, riding the coastline, then I'd say its reached its peak
Quoting sunlinepr:

XTRAPed from 4UTC at which point the rapid increase in wind speed stops, Vmax is around 95kts now which is about 110mph; raw T is ~6.2
Not to be posting the same image over again, but the little v shape in the NW quadrant is exactly the same thing that Adrian did before undergoing RI. Very serious situation and it is wrong for the NHC to downplay it with extremely conservative numbers which are not justified by the current data.

That island "Maria Madre" could be hit by Beatriz
Could be a close call on those islands, if it does continue to become annular then steering is going to be harder to predict. Definitely going to cause major damage all along the coastline up to around Puerto Vallarta.
Quoting alfabob:
Could be a close call on those islands, if it does continue to become annular then steering is going to be harder to predict. Definitely going to cause major damage all along the coastline up to around Puerto Vallarta.
I highly doubt Beatriz will become annular
Quoting TomTaylor:
I very highly doubt Beatriz will become annular

Just remember who called the last annular cane.
Quoting alfabob:

Just remember who called the last annular cane.
As of right now, Beatriz doesn't look annular at all. Look at the microwave image loop sunlinepr posted and the ir rainbow pic you posted. The intense convection around the core is extremely lop sided, with the large majority of it on the western side. Also seen on the microwave imagery is some spiral banding. Finally, the eye feature is ragged, small, and not very cleared out - there are still many mid to low level clouds in the eye.

For Beatriz to become annular, the intense convection around the eye would have to become near symmetrical, spiral banding would have to become minimal to non existent, the eye would need to become better defined and clear out.

Simply put, Beatriz is far from annular. And due to its extremely close proximity to land and the presence of rough mountainous terrain over land, as well as its forecasted track over cooler SSTs and a more stable and dry air mass within the next 2 days, I highly doubt this will become an annular hurricane.
Quoting TomTaylor:
As of right now, Beatriz doesn't look annular at all. Look at the microwave image loop sunlinepr posted and the ir rainbow pic you posted. The intense convection around the core is extremely lop sided, with the large majority of it on the western side. Also seen on the microwave imagery is some spiral banding. Finally, the eye feature is ragged, small, and not very cleared out - there are still many mid to low level clouds in the eye.

For Beatriz to become annular, the intense convection around the eye would have to become near symmetrical,spiral banding would have to become minimal to non existent, the eye would need to become better defined and clear out.

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.
Seems like the only break to become annular, would be if it moves far from land, and keeps in high SSTs

Quoting alfabob:

Just remember who called the last annular cane.


Staying humble is the biggest challenge in this field.
Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.
satellite interpretation is very subjective so I'm going to drop this argument. Time will tell what happens
Fine I'll resist doing what others have done in the past because it makes me somewhat hypocritical, but if it does happen these are some of the signs I've noticed. Would be crazy to have 2 in a row.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (T1104)
15:00 PM JST June 21 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Northern South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haima (996 hPa) located at 19.1N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.5N 113.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.0N 110.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FALCON
11:00 PM PhST June 21 2011
======================================

The Low Pressure Area east of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "FALCON"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Falcon located at 11.7°N 132.3°E or 670 km east of Borongan, Easter Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
TD "Falcon" and TD "Egay" are expected to bring occasional rains over the country becoming widespread over the western section of Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Tornado Warning
2011-06-21 03:47:00 EDT until
2011-06-21 04:30:00 EDT

247 am CDT Tue Jun 21 2011

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
northern Coleman County in north central Texas...

* until 330 am CDT

* at 245 am CDT...a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was 4 miles east of Glen Cove...or 10 miles west of
Coleman...moving southeast at 25 mph
616 alfabob "Probably the worst case scenario for Mexico right now; its following the path NHC has up, which is not moving inland."

Probably the best case scenario for Mexico right now. Most of Mexico has been in a Texas-style drought.

"About 40 percent of Mexico's territory has been experiencing the worst drought in seven decades, President Felipe Calderon said. Mexico experienced its second worst drought in 60 years in 2009, while 2010 was the rainiest year on record...
There are areas in Mexico where it has not rained since September..."

As is, HurricaneBeatriz is reported to be dropping precipitation as far east as MexicoCity... as well as wetting the formerly dry air flowing into the Gulf of Campeche. Which is good news inregard to future tropical development leading toward rainfall for both Texas and easternMexico.

In the near term, the best case scenario would be for TropicalStormBeatriz to turn northnorthwestward to continue following the coastline up through the center of the Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez) all the way to Yuma*Arizona, then head east as it breaks up.
Not likely given the NHC's predicted path westward (or given the SSTs and atmospheric conditions), but one can always wishcast.

* 138feet(~42metres) above sea-level, inland 62miles(~100kilometres) north of the Sea of Cortez
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210838
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A
SHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF
90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...
AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE
COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
DIRECTIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR.
HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS
OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO
CORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND
THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS
WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND
INTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID
DISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE
COLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS
THAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER
AND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie, 99W is just trying to develop east of the Philippines.

I was already watching that LPA. looks interesting.
Quoting alfabob:

I would say that the chances are very slim, mountains and whatnot would make it difficult for the convection to make it that far.



I don't know about that. Meet Hurricane Rosa 1994. I remember this flood. We were in the process of moving into our brand new house. It was a mess to say the least! Rita moved us out 11 years later. Sigh. ;)



United States

Rosa sent moisture into the United States, which, in combination with humidity drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico, caused heavy thunderstorms and flooding in parts of thirty eight Texas counties on October 15 to 19. The flooding was worst around the San Jacinto and Trinity River basins, and in coastal areas. Rainfall totals ranged from 8 in (200 mm) to more than 28 in (710 mm).[14] The rain levels caused 100-year floods at nineteen stations. Several records were broken, some of which had stood since 1940. In the case of the Lavaca River near Edna, it broke a record set in 1936.[15] The flooding destroyed 3069 homes, heavily damaged 6560, and damaged 6148 others. Railbeds and roads sustained damage, while broken gas and oil pipelines caused spills and environmental damage in the Lower San Jacinto River and Galveston Bay. Twenty-two people died due to effects from the storm. In total, the flooding in southeastern Texas caused 700 million (1995 USD) in damage.[14] On October 18, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared the worst-affected areas a disaster area.[16] After the declaration, FEMA received 26,000 applications for disaster assistance and approved 54 million (1995 USD) in aid.[14]
[edit] Lack of retirement
Current day 1 outlook: Mushroom.
Current day 2 outlook: Triangular flag placed sideways.
Current day 3 outlook: Small, half eaten mushroom.
Lurk mode activating....
Lurk mode activated.
Lurk Cam booting....
Lurk cam booted.
Starting Lurk XP...
Lurk XP started.
Now lurking.
Quoting TomTaylor:
As of right now, Beatriz doesn't look annular at all. Look at the microwave image loop sunlinepr posted and the ir rainbow pic you posted. The intense convection around the core is extremely lop sided, with the large majority of it on the western side. Also seen on the microwave imagery is some spiral banding. Finally, the eye feature is ragged, small, and not very cleared out - there are still many mid to low level clouds in the eye.

For Beatriz to become annular, the intense convection around the eye would have to become near symmetrical, spiral banding would have to become minimal to non existent, the eye would need to become better defined and clear out.

Simply put, Beatriz is far from annular. And due to its extremely close proximity to land and the presence of rough mountainous terrain over land, as well as its forecasted track over cooler SSTs and a more stable and dry air mass within the next 2 days, I highly doubt this will become an annular hurricane.


Agreed...and I have never seen an annular CAT 2 storm before...not saying impossible, but never seen one...only seen CAT 4; CAT 5 go annular.
so Beatriz is inland and still on the nnw course? whats anyone picking... dissapation over land or gonna go with official NHC forecast?
Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.


Beatriz is not even close to an annular storm
that trof up north does seem to have some uuuummmph
Annular Hurricanes
JOHN A. KNAFF AND JAMES P. KOSSIN

Link
Quoting alfabob:

There is very minimal banding and the lopsided feature is another sign of annular development. Moisture in the surrounding area will continue to be pulled into the center and a circular flow will begin to surround it; that is what that v in the convection means, it is being rapidly pulled. There is already a dense moisture field in the center covering most of the eye.

It's not becoming annular. The spiral rainbands should be gone.
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.
character just pulling your feathers speaking of annular there was a donut that made landfall in new jersey back in the 50 or 60s
Beatriz is defiantly not going annular.

Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beatriz is defiantly not going annular.

Maintaining strength, maybe even weakening.

Wait, what?
watching this tropical wave this week!!
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks!

Good evening, Ron. I hope you don't mind if I call you that?


Don't mind at all.....been buzy savin the world!! How is the hurricanader doin??
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.
More than I have received in 13 months
Quoting Vincent4989:

Wait, what?


Look at the structure, look at how the CDO has become elongated from what it was. Here's an IR to prove that. Heavy land interaction.
699. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all and happy first official day of summer.

I woke up to thunder, not a common thing in the early morning. A wave is moving south of PR combining with a shortwave trough causing the inestability.

By the way,13.35 inches have fallen in June, to keep adding up the new record.

wow,nice...
i'm at 10 inches,expecting 3-4 over the next 2-3 days.
...CENTER OF BEATRIZ RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...
5:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 21
Location: 19.4°N 105.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
most interesting feature today is the system offshore cape hatteras speaking of donuts
Quoting DDR:

wow,nice...
i'm at 10 inches,expecting 3-4 over the next 2-3 days.


Yes,there is plenty of convection ESE of you with a wave and ITCZ stuff that will add to those 10.
The waves show up well here...
705. DDR
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,there is plenty of convection ESE of you with a wave and ITCZ stuff that will add to those 10.

yes indeed
I AM HAPPY NO T.STORMS IN THIS CENTER!!
Good Morning All.....Yup....The ITCZ has been very active for about a month now and spawned the two E-Pac storms including Beatrice. Only a matter of time until it rises North and starts sending waves squarely through the Caribbean going into July-August as the sheer in the MDR starts to drop....Gonna be an interesting Cape Verde season this year.
Quoting islander101010:
most interesting feature today is the system offshore cape hatteras speaking of donuts
IS MOVING se into warmer water..
Western Pacific is getting busier...
711. SLU
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
712. SLU
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
CMC precip accum. 7 day..
wow, blog was busier at 3:00 a.m. than it is now.

GFS...
NOGAPS..
717. Jax82
Looking better for the south.

Quoting BobinTampa:
wow, blog was busier at 3:00 a.m. than it is now.



Some of us work, you know. We can't all be like hydrus, and post maps every two minutes. We have important things to do. :)
Happy Solstice all.


Checking out some celebrations on You Tube, it was hard not to notice the tin foil hatters are freaked out about the New Madrid fault line.

Most times when it gets a good flood the weight alone tends to wake it up a bit.


CA is latest state to catch a big fire.

Hundreds of firefighters continue to battle a wildfire on Monday in Central California that has burned nearly eight square miles of grassland. The fire started at the McDonald-Anticline Oil Field in Kern County on Sunday morning and quickly spread to a remote area of eastern San Luis Obispo County. No one has been hurt, but an 1800s-era Kern County cattle branding camp was destroyed. The fire is 20 percent contained. There is no estimate for full containment. Some 600 firefighters from as far away as Sacramento and San Diego were on the fire lines, Kern County fire spokesman Leland Davis said. Four air tankers and five helicopters made sorties with retardant and water drops.
Quoting Grothar:


Some of us work, you know. We can't all be like hydrus, and post maps every two minutes. We have important things to do. :)




you are so noted on that we can not all ways be on here



+1 for that
No fireworks this AM offshore in the Gulf, whommmmmmpp, whommmmppp
That monster mid-country is just beginning to to tap the tropical moisture. Click pic to loop.
Quoting Grothar:


Some of us work, you know. We can't all be like hydrus, and post maps every two minutes. We have important things to do. :)
What ever happened with having repect for other peoples thoughts and interests?...whimper, cry, sniffle...
Quoting Tazmanian:




you are so noted on that we can not all ways be on here



+1 for that


Hey, Taz. Sometimes this is more fun than our own work. LOL
Quoting hydrus:
What ever happened with having repect for other peoples thoughts and interests?...whimper, cry, sniffle...


You do a great job, hydrus. I must admit, some of those maps are really interesting. Hope we do get the rain. I am sure the people who taught you how to post them must be very proud of you.
Quoting Skyepony:
That monster mid-country is just beginning to to tap the tropical moisture. Click pic to loop.
nice spin off the east coast!!
Quoting hydrus:
What ever happened with having repect for other peoples thoughts and interests?...whimper, cry, sniffle...


I, for one, appreciate someone who has the time to post various charts and graphs during the day while I am working. :)

Gives me the ability to quickly check on situations.
Quoting Jax82:
Looking better for the south.



Yes but in Florida the forecast for most of the rain continues to be inland. We're not getting any rain here right along the west coast.
729. hydrus 8:01 AM CDT on June 21, 2011

I'd take that :)
here we go again!!
Quoting Grothar:


You do a great job, hydrus. I must admit, some of those maps are really interesting. Hope we do get the rain. I am sure the people who taught you how to post them must be very proud of you.
Considering how far behind I was compared to everybody else with computer knowledge, I am doing o.k. I still have a lot to learn...Good morning Gro. Its tryin to rain in Texas...
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
nice spin off the east coast!!


And it seems to be moving SSE!, or is it SEE, or EES?
Quoting hydrus:
What ever happened with having repect for other peoples thoughts and interests?...whimper, cry, sniffle...


Yo, hydrus. You think some people don't know we kid each other a lot. I've had WU mails telling me to be nicer to you. LOL We all apapreciate your graphs.
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


I, for one, appreciate someone who has the time to post various charts and graphs during the day while I am working. :)

Gives me the ability to quickly check on situations.
I like to post maps exactly for that reason..I too enjoy all the informative graphics and maps while I am working (which is what I am doing right now ). And it gives me a chance to visit those sites which have been posted that I have never seen. Things are slow right now, so I post forecast maps..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Considering how far behind I was compared to everybody else with computer knowledge, I am doing o.k. I still have a lot to learn...Good morning Gro. Its tryin to rain in Texas...



I hope Texas gets some rain. They are worse than we are in FL. Look at poor little FL. If it doesn't rain soon, they might change our name from the "Palm Coast to the "Cactus Coast). We still haven't had a drop.
Has anyone seen the HFIP NOAA HWRF experimental on Beatriz? i wasnt looking beatriz, i was looking at the atlantic to see if the though there would be any develop, and a low forms on the 26th east of Goergia that rides the east coast as a Tropical depression through the run where its sitting on top of Cape hatteras as a TD, Arlene? TD1? thats what noaa combined with the HWRF believe. Along with the low thats suppose to form in the W caribbean and head into the gulf as Arlene or if we do get the storm on the 26th, Bret.
nice tropical wave for june!!
741. MahFL
1/8 mile vis in smoke in downtown JAX, I can even smell it from the 14th floor office.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
here we go again!!


Saw that, hey, jason? Looks like a big one. Interesting to see what happens in 48 hours.



I hope Texas gets some rain. They are worse than we are in FL. Look at poor little FL. If it doesn't rain soon, they might change our name from the "Palm Coast to the "Cactus Coast). We still haven't had a drop.
ok bye
One of the stronger MJO signals I've seen over the Atlantic on this particular model:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL STORM HAIMA (T1104)
21:00 PM JST June 21 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Northern South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haima (994 hPa) located at 18.6N 114.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.3N 112.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.5N 110.0E - Tropical Depression
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06
21:00 PM JST June 21 2011
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 12.0N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.5N 129.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting Skyepony:
Happy Solstice all.


Checking out some celebrations on You Tube, it was hard not to notice the tin foil hatters are freaked out about the New Madrid fault line.

Most times when it gets a good flood the weight alone tends to wake it up a bit.


CA is latest state to catch a big fire.

Hundreds of firefighters continue to battle a wildfire on Monday in Central California that has burned nearly eight square miles of grassland. The fire started at the McDonald-Anticline Oil Field in Kern County on Sunday morning and quickly spread to a remote area of eastern San Luis Obispo County. No one has been hurt, but an 1800s-era Kern County cattle branding camp was destroyed. The fire is 20 percent contained. There is no estimate for full containment. Some 600 firefighters from as far away as Sacramento and San Diego were on the fire lines, Kern County fire spokesman Leland Davis said. Four air tankers and five helicopters made sorties with retardant and water drops.


wow i didnt even know about this but had noticed there are earthquakes there almost every day! I must be a tinfoil hatter :)
I would like to bring to everyone's attention that yet again yesterday, large amounts of chaff (or some aerosol visible on radar) were dispersed over the gulf of mexico for the tenth time this month so far.

I have seen this on radar occasionally over the past decade or so, but never as frequently as this past month.

No one seems to question why this material is being released, and I would like to know what you other bloggers' opinions are.

Quoting Levi32:
One of the stronger MJO signals I've seen over the Atlantic on this particular model:



Very impressive. Based on the model, it would definitely give rise to significant moistening of the Caribbean and Atlantic as well as reducing wind shear across the basin. Not for sure yet, but something to definitely watch in the coming days and weeks.
Ocean life on the brink of mass extinctions: study

(Reuters) - Life in the oceans is at imminent risk of the worst spate of extinctions in millions of years due to threats such as climate change and over-fishing, a study showed on Tuesday.

Time was running short to counter hazards such as a collapse of coral reefs or a spread of low-oxygen "dead zones," according to the study led by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO).

"We now face losing marine species and entire marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs, within a single generation," according to the study by 27 experts to be presented to the United Nations.

"Unless action is taken now, the consequences of our activities are at a high risk of causing, through the combined effects of climate change, over-exploitation, pollution and habitat loss, the next globally significant extinction event in the ocean," it said.

Scientists list five mass extinctions over 600 million years -- most recently when the dinosaurs vanished 65 million years ago, apparently after an asteroid struck. Among others, the Permian period abruptly ended 250 million years ago.

"The findings are shocking," Alex Rogers, scientific director of IPSO, wrote of the conclusions from a 2011 workshop of ocean experts staged by IPSO and the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) at Oxford University.

Fish are the main source of protein for a fifth of the world's population and the seas cycle oxygen and help absorb carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from human activities.

OXYGEN

Jelle Bijma, of the Alfred Wegener Institute, said the seas faced a "deadly trio" of threats of higher temperatures, acidification and lack of oxygen, known as anoxia, that had featured in several past mass extinctions.

A build-up of carbon dioxide, blamed by the U.N. panel of climate scientists on human use of fossil fuels, is heating the planet. Absorbed into the oceans, it causes acidification, while run-off of fertilizers and pollution stokes anoxia.

"From a geological point of view, mass extinctions happen overnight, but on human timescales we may not realize that we are in the middle of such an event," Bijma wrote.

The study said that over-fishing is the easiest for governments to reverse -- countering global warming means a shift from fossil fuels, for instance, toward cleaner energies such as wind and solar power.

"Unlike climate change, it can be directly, immediately and effectively tackled by policy change," said William Cheung of the University of East Anglia.

"Over-fishing is now estimated to account for over 60 percent of the known local and global extinction of marine fishes," he wrote.

Among examples of over-fishing are the Chinese bahaba that can grow 2 meters long. Prices per kilo (2.2 lbs) for its swim bladder -- meant to have medicinal properties -- have risen from a few dollars in the 1930s to $20,000-$70,000.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/21/us-ocea ns-idUSTRE75K1IY20110621

Nevertheless: Have a nice day, everyone!
i wonder how they collect data for the drought monitor maps. Because the last drought, in 2005 after Katrina, here in nw fla the drought was horrible and our area was dark red. but now its worse. and our area is just sorta light orange and the adjacent counties are darker red. how can a drought be suddenly better at the county line?

And our sandhill ponds, which are windows to the floridan aquifer are way more dried up than in 2005. and the creek that is fed by multiple springs and sandhill ponds (the aquifer) (econfina) is the lowest i have seen it. ever. period. in fifty years. has sandbars in the middle. and the water management district just approved a 90 million gpd "relief well" for panama city. hmmmmmm. thank you st joe arvida for all you have done for us in nw fla. your legacy will be devastating to all for generations if not til the end of time.
Almost looks like a winter system.. And the African wave..
*gasp* Copious amounts of water falling from the sky a bit ago in Slidell.

Why do I care? We are missing close to 20 inches in the last 6 months:
well even if you dont believe in global warming, you gotta admit things are weird! just tinfoil hat observation from me, the scientifically challenged :) lord just please send us some RAIN
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 21st, with Video


Informative as always, Levi, thank you.
Floruda weather freak:I have been keeping a eye and have noticed this atleast 7 times over the last 2weeks,theirs often three distinct lines reflected by the radar,which is how the planes dispurse it it 3 lines,ive found chaff on the beach here on siesta key about 2 yrs ago,funny thing is the local news was lying calling it bleaches pieces of seagrass washing ashore,really????,thousands of pieces all the same size about 4 inches long!!
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I would like to bring to everyone's attention that yet again yesterday, large amounts of chaff (or some aerosol visible on radar) were dispersed over the gulf of mexico for the tenth time this month so far.

I have seen this on radar occasionally over the past decade or so, but never as frequently as this past month.

No one seems to question why this material is being released, and I would like to know what you other bloggers' opinions are.

Maybe it is flocks of birds taking off. They look like chaff when that happens.
Quoting stillwaiting:
Floruda weather freak:I have been keeping a eye and have noticed this atleast 7 times over the last 2weeks,theirs often three distinct lines reflected by the radar,which is how the planes dispurse it it 3 lines,ive found chaff on the beach here on siesta key about 2 yrs ago,funny thing is the local news was lying calling it bleaches pieces of seagrass washing ashore,really????,thousands of pieces all the same size about 4 inches long!!


That wouldn't even be a plausible explanation since radar picks up on whats in the atmosphere, not at the surface unless at the very radar site. Love how the news thinks we're that mind-numbingly dumb.
if i found "chaff" like this I would take it to mu local usda ag office and have it analyzed, or the navy base or something. anything that is a mystery substance dispersed in huge amounts would be something i would want to know about?
Isn't chaff aluminum foil pieces?
Quoting twhcracker:
well even if you dont believe in global warming, you gotta admit things are weird! just tinfoil hat observation from me, the scientifically challenged :) lord just please send us some RAIN
At the very least, things are different, relative to 15 years ago...under very different regimes in our longer-term oceanic cycles.

Ocean hold and transport most of the heat on the planet; they have huge sway over the behaviors of the atmosphere.
Quoting twhcracker:
if i found "chaff" like this I would take it to mu local usda ag office and have it analyzed, or the navy base or something. anything that is a mystery substance dispersed in huge amounts would be something i would want to know about?
someone on here had a good bit of info to share on this, with some decent links.. think it was Skyepony if i recall correctly. the info stated it being thin aluminum foil perhaps?

i would be VERY frustrated and unhappy if that stuff was being released near me, and infiltrating my environment. even if it's supposed to be harmless, it still pollutes and degrades the quality of an environment in my opinion.... stepping off soapbox now
Effect of Navy chaff release on aluminum levels in an area of the Chesapeake Bay.



Abstract
The U.S. Navy uses aluminized glass chaff as a passive countermeasure for radar-guided threats to aircraft and surface ships. Over the last 25 years, several hundred thousand pounds of aluminized chaff have been released during flight operations over a training area on the Chesapeake Bay. There is concern that these releases have resulted in the accumulation of significant amounts of aluminum in the soil and sediment of this training area. This study compares the exchangeable and monomeric aluminum content of sediment within the affected area with that of samples taken from outside the training area. We found a less than twofold increase in the content of organic monomeric aluminum in samples taken from the affected area versus background samples, whereas inorganic monomeric aluminum concentrations within the affected area were significantly lower than background. These results suggest that chaff releases have not resulted in a significant accumulation of aluminum in this training area.

(c) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Good morning to all, I see all is quiet for the moment, but July Will he here soon. Didany one notice the cooling of the waters off the coast of guinea? That
OLD BLOG
new blog
769. Jax82
NEW BLOG
Quoting Skyepony:
That monster mid-country is just beginning to to tap the tropical moisture. Click pic to loop.
It is certainly dumping tropically heavy rain in Fargo right now, it is POURING!
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 21st, with Video


Great and informative update, Levi. The cooling of the water south of West Africa is really concerning, though I'm sure folks in the Sahel are liking the rain.

Oh, and wouldn't this help suppress the Saharan Air Layer?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
OLD BLOG

huh mean NEW BLOG