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Hurricane Warnings for Haiti, Jamaica as Category 4 Matthew Restrengthens

By: Bob Henson 10:55 PM GMT on October 01, 2016

Despite its unorthodox structure, Hurricane Matthew remains a formidable hurricane in the southern Caribbean Sea and an increasing threat to parts of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. Matthew briefly attained Category 5 intensity late Friday, when its top sustained winds hit 160 mph--only 36 hours after Matthew was still a tropical storm. By early Saturday afternoon, Matthew’s peak winds had were at 140 mph, but they have since resurged to 150 mph as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Matthew is now a high-end Category 4 hurricane.

As noted by Jeff Masters in our morning post, only a few hurricanes in the Atlantic have bolted from tropical storm to Cat 5 intensity in less than two days. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 and Hurricane Patricia of 2015 accomplished the feat in 24 hours; Hurricane Felix of 2007 did it in 30 hours; Hurricane Rita of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did it in 36 hours; and the Great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 did so in 42 hours.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Matthew at 2115Z (5:15 pm EDT) Saturday, October 1, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Menacing yet quirky
For such a powerful hurricane, Matthew has quite an odd structure. The most unusual feature is the persistent swath of intense showers and thunderstorms (convection) well east of its center, as evident in Figure 1 above. This feature has been in place for most of Matthew’s life as a tropical cyclone, and it may have played a role (yet to be determined) in its rapid intensification. For much of Saturday afternoon, this area of convection was actually larger and stronger than the convection around Matthew itself.

Hurricane Hunters on Saturday afternoon continued to find Matthew bearing a closed, fairly small eye that was just 8 nautical miles in diameter. Eyewall replacement cycles, which are fairly common with intense hurricanes, can produce a weakening for a day or so as the inner eye decays and the outer one gradually takes over. There was some evidence on Saturday that Matthew was trying to form a secondary eyewall further from its center, but this had not yet happened by late Saturday afternoon. Outside of rain-contaminated areas, the strongest near-surface winds detected by the Hurricane Hunters using the SFMR radiometer were around 130 knots (150 mph), and peak flight-level winds were around 135 knots (155 mph).

A dire situation for Haiti
After moving mainly west-southwest for the past day, Matthew carried out a very tight cyclonic (counterclockwise) loop on Saturday afternoon--most likely a prelude to its long-expected northward turn. At 5 pm EDT, Matthew was drifting northwest at just 3 mph. Assuming Matthew’s northward motion picks up as expected on Saturday night, we should soon have a better sense of which parts of the Greater Antilles will be most at risk from Matthew. The most immediate threat is to Jamaica and Haiti, which Matthew is expected to be approaching by early Monday. It is very rare for hurricanes this strong to strike either nation from the south, an angle of approach that would maximize the storm-surge potential along south-facing coasts.

Extremely heavy rains will occur around Matthew, and in particular on its right-hand (eastern flank), where fierce southerly winds will slam into south-facing mountains and hillsides. Rainfall east of Matthew’s center could be even more widespread and heavier than with other hurricanes of this size and strength because of the massive slug of convection and moisture well east of its center, as discussed above.


Figure 2. All hurricanes that are known to have passed through the shaded circle with at least Category 3 intensity. The only major hurricanes that took a south-to-north track similar to the forecast for Matthew were Sandy (2012), which briefly attained Category 3 strength before striking eastern Cuba, and Hazel (1954), which struck southwest Haiti as a Category 3 storm. Up to 1000 Haitians died as a result of Hazel, and the nation’s economy was hobbled for years afterward. NOAA’s hurricane data base extends back to the mid-1800s. Both Hazel and Sandy were October hurricanes that went on to affect much of the U.S. East Coast. Image credit: NOAA


The 12Z Saturday runs of our best track models--the GFS, European, and UKMET models--all bring Matthew between Jamaica and Haiti, as reflected in the latest official NHC track. This path would reduce the risk for Jamaica but heighten it for Haiti, where deforestation greatly enhances the potential for devastating floods and landslides. I’m especially concerned about the mountainous Tiburon Peninsula of southwest Haiti, which is most likely to experience the strongest winds and heaviest rains. NHC warns that rainfall could total 15” to 25” in southern Haiti, with localized amounts as high as 40” possible. Given Haiti’s extreme poverty (the nation is still recovering from its catastrophic earthquake of 2010), Matthew could produce a truly devastating blow. Heavy rains of 10” - 20” will also affect parts of eastern Jamaica and the Dominican Republic. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of Jamaica and for southern Haiti, with a Hurricane Watch for northern Haiti.


Figure 3. NHC track forecast for Hurricane Matthew as of 5 pm EDT Saturday, October 1, 2016.

If Matthew threads the needle between eastern Jamaica and western Haiti, it will largely avoid disruption from mountains that exceed 6000 feet in height in both areas. This would allow Matthew to retain most or all of its strength as it approaches easternmost Cuba late Monday. Most of Cuba should experience the less-intense west side of Matthew, but a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Camaguey to Guantanamo province. Matthew could make landfall very close to Guantanamo Bay, where some 700 U.S. military personnel and family members were preparing on Saturday night for evacuation to Pensacola, Florida. Although Sandy was barely a Category 3 when it struck just west of Santiago de Cuba in 2012 from the south, it was the strongest hurricane to hit eastern Cuba in half a century, destroying tens of thousands of homes and taking at least 11 lives.

Longer-term outlook for Matthew
Models have converged somewhat on Matthew’s future track in the western Atlantic, but there remains plenty of uncertainty on critical points. Chances are that Matthew will be at least partially disrupted from its trek through the Greater Antilles. However, our top intensity models agree that it will likely restrengthen once it reaches The Bahamas. Conditions will remain very supportive for Matthew over The Bahamas on Tuesday and Wednesday, with very low wind shear, record-warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere to work with. Residents of The Bahamas would be well advised to start making preparations, as hurricane watches could be required as soon as Sunday. Right now it appears the eastern Bahamas are most at risk of being affected by Matthew’s more dangerous east side, but very heavy rains and high winds could overspread many of the islands on Tuesday or early Wednesday.


Figure 4. The 70 forecasts from the 18Z Saturday GFS model ensemble (top) and 12Z European (ECMWF) model ensemble (bottom) continued to show a wide variety of solutions for the track of Matthew. The two models have grown closer together in their solutions compared to Friday. Both models indicated that Matthew could remain a major hurricane well into the northwest Atlantic, although model skill at intensity prediction drops markedly over time. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).

Big questions on Matthew’s track later next week
Models agree very closely on Matthew’s general track into the Bahamas, but they strongly suggest that Matthew could slow down or angle toward the northwest by midweek as steering currents weaken. The next step in the Matthew saga will then be determined by two main influences. One is an area of low pressure about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving slowly west-northwest. NHC gives this area only a 20% chance of developing into at least a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of its status, it could give Matthew a pathway to move northeast and out to sea from the Bahamas. The other influence on Matthew’s long-term future is a strong mid-latitude upper trough that will be plowing toward the eastern U.S. by later next week. Models generally agree that the upper-level trough will pick up Matthew and cart it north and northeastward, but there is crucial disagreement on how far west its track might extend. Among the 20 members of the 18Z Saturday ensemble run of the GFS and the 50 members of the 12Z Saturday European (ECMWF) ensemble, a number of members haul Matthew along the U.S. East Coast at various points, with several tracks moving well inland. A number of other GFS and ECMWF ensemble members keep Matthew just off the East Coast without any direct landfall.


Figure 5. Track forecasts from the five European model ensemble members [gray lines] that most closely match the operational run [red line] during the first 72 hours, starting at 12Z Saturday, October 1, 2016. The red line is a version of the 12Z Saturday operational model track that has been adjusted and calibrated using a proprietary technique to account for systemic model errors. Image credit: Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN).


We cannot yet rule out the possibility of Matthew moving close enough to the Florida coast to produce major impacts. Among the five members of the “high-probability” Euro ensemble from 12Z Saturday (see Figure 5), two members take Matthew sharply westward across South Florida by next weekend and up Florida’s West Coast. The 12Z Saturday UKMET model also brings Matthew to the vicinity of South Florida by Thursday. Considering that the Euro, GFS, and UKMET are our top three track models, it’s clear there is still plenty of uncertainty in how Matthew may affect the U.S. later next week.

The bottom line:

Matthew poses a dire threat to the western Greater Antilles, especially Haiti. All residents should prepare as best they can for what could be the strongest northward-moving hurricane in living memory across the region.

The Bahamas may experience prolonged impacts from Matthew next week. The official NHC forecast brings Matthew through the islands as a Category 3, and it could be stronger. The duration of Matthew’s impact, and its exact track, are increasingly uncertain beyond Tuesday.

Models continue to indicate the potential for Matthew to affect any part of the U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine later next week into the weekend. The bulk of model solutions keep Matthew just offshore, but a significant minority bring Matthew onshore, possibly as a strong hurricane. It is too soon to know exactly how the mid-latitude steering currents will evolve, so the range of potential landfall locations remains very wide.

Jeff Masters will be back with our next update by late Sunday morning. Wunderblogger Steve Gregory posted a Saturday afternoon update on Matthew, CAT 4 HURRICANE MATTHEW: THREAT TO US CONTINUES.

Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1493. forecaster1:

And the storm is moving outside the model so a new game is in play until it gets back in the center of that track.


No, he's still inside the latest GFS run.

So it is pretty much at this forecast point, just 2.5hrs late?
AL 14 2016100206 03 AVNO 6 139N 743W 89 947

And it has 3.5hrs to get to this point:
AL 14 2016100206 03 AVNO 12 145N 747W 77 957
Quoting 1475. timothyrae62555:

Good morning All! First time posting here so please be gentle. What I don't understand is why the NHC would show Mathew downgrading to a Cat 3 while at the same time discussing the fact that he will be heading into lower shear, warmer water, deep ocean heat content, etc. It all seams inconsistent. Would any of you nice folks please tell me why this is? Thanks much!


I think part of that is to factor in eyewall replacement cycles, which will cause the hurricane to weaken in the short term, never mind any form of land interaction (be it landfall or close brush, anything enough to disrupt it even the slightest). But they will tell you that it's virtually impossible to forecast eyewall replacement cycles, so they just do the best they can with it.
Matthew is moving mainly to the west right now.
Matthew is moving so slowly right now that even if it's going the 'wrong' direction, it's not getting too far away from the forecast points.
Quoting 1498. Xyrus2000:



I'm hoping that Matt makes it past 75W and that trof can make his path straight enough that he spares Jamaica and Haiti.


While the ridge in the Central Atlantic is moving in from the East (to the West), you also have the ridging in the Gulf moving East; it is going to be a conveyor belt (squeeze play) between the ridges to the North and we just have to see where the belt sets up relative to the current center-line.
Quoting 1500. Waltanater:

So why is the NHC 5-day cone different from that of the WU 5-day cone??


You'll often find media outlet cones vary slightly from the NHC. For example, TWC usually calls a much narrower swath than the NHC.
1507. beell
Quoting 1431. presslord:



humping the ridge, however, is a thing.....


or boffing the trof.
Another loop is about to happen I think.
1511. CW7859
Quoting 1485. ecflweatherfan:



According to this then, it would be until it gets to Western Cuba before it would begin to turn north. If nothing changes, that is.


Maybe if it was trucking at 20mph, but it's creeping along and this pattern will keep changing. In the short range according to that map it "should" be moving NW.
Quoting 1507. beell:



or boffing the trof.


I'm learning a lot of new jargon this season.
1513. MahFL
Quoting 1506. StormJunkie:



You'll often find media outlet cones vary slightly from the NHC. For example, TWC usually calls a much narrower swath than the NHC.


Actually TWC was using a wider cone, so Miami was in the cone, they called it a historical cone I believe...somewhat unrealistic.


not forecasting with this post

just saying, food for thought.

http://media.jrn.com/images/0915therbert_5285903_ ver1.0_640_480.jpg

Dear Fellow bloggers after looking at water vapor loops does anyone else see that the upper Level Low pressure is now centered way North over Northern Michigan/southern Ontario. The trough seems to be getting out of the way faster than models depicting. If matthew breaches 75W and is continues westward then I will have to buy the plywood
1516. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2m2 minutes ago Walnut Creek, CA
Hurricane #Matthew has generated the most ACE in the eastern Caribbean (S of 20°N, 75-60°W) since Ivan (2004).
G'morning, weathergeeks! :-)

Y'all got this thing figured out? Complicated for sure. A few obs: 5 mph is vary slow; conditions/tracks could change dramatically over the next several days amidst weak steering. It's a large system with a small core being abated by substantial shear in some parts of the upper levels. Mid-level shear is condusive and Matthew is thriving at these levels, given the rich fuel resources at the surface in the Caribbean. The large moisture field (TPW) is keeping any dry air entrainment from the western side abated as well. Despite its significant wind speeds/structure, it's still a young maturing system that has huge potential for broadening/deepening and becoming much larger and very deadly. Any areas out in front of it should watch closely over the next several days as it matures. My gut tells me this is a storm we'll be talking about for years with the name "Matthew" being retired. Stay diligent.
1518. CW7859
11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 2
Location: 14.0°N 74.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
1519. centex
Its not uncommon for nhc to call for turn early, maybe following models too close. They also tend to believe wobbles when it follows forecast. But no one has a better handle than NHC. If you go against them, you will regret it.
Quoting 1507. beell:



or boffing the trof.


We can shut the blog down now and go home...no post will ever top this....
Quoting 1511. CW7859:



Maybe if it was trucking at 20mph, but it's creeping along and this pattern will keep changing. In the short range according to that map it "should" be moving NW.


Hence the "if nothing changes, that is" disclaimer. Because the atmosphere is fluid... Constantly changing. I certainly don't believe the western extent of that ridge would be there by the time it would get there, because it is moving slowly. Most people just look at that map and say that's where it's going to go or to expect the ridges/troughs to still be in place for the next 3-5 days in the same exact spot.
1522. Ed22
Quoting 1504. rwdobson:

Matthew is moving so slowly right now that even if it's going the 'wrong' direction, it's not getting too far away from the forecast points.
Anyway it is right now, it just outside the current forecast track.
pick your poison. two hrs is off track. Maybe I am splitting hairs.
Quoting 1501. StormJunkie:



No, he's still inside the latest GFS run.

So it is pretty much at this forecast point, just 2.5hrs late?
AL 14 2016100206 03 AVNO 6 139N 743W 89 947

And it has 3.5hrs to get to this point:
AL 14 2016100206 03 AVNO 12 145N 747W 77 957
Quoting 1505. weathermanwannabe:



While the ridge in the Central Atlantic is moving in from the East, you also have the ridging in the Gulf moving West; it is going to be a conveyor belt between the ridges to the North and we just have to see where the belt sets up relative to the current center-line.


Yep. Yesterday it looked to me like the ridge in the Atlantic was going to build in quicker and stronger while the one in the Gulf was going to be slower and weaker, hence shifting the storm west. At the moment, this appears to be the case and the longer it stays that way the better it is for Haiti. But the models invariably have things pushing more north and then a little east of north as the storm approaches Haiti.

It'll be close.
Quoting 1471. VegasRain:

Lets talk about the cone. The "cone" is the average center point deviation at each respective time frame. 12, 24, 36hrs, etc. Therefore it is likely that the center falls within that cone 70% of the time (I dont have exact %). The other 30% it does not. So, as you can see below, Florida's East coast is in the cone and there's a 30% possibility that the center goes left or right or the cone. Lets not forget also that Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles from the center and Tropical storm winds more than 100 miles from the center, so it doesn't take a direct landfall to have tropical storm conditions from a storm 75 miles for 100 miles from the coast. So, that is why the NHC states that Florida is not out of danger. Any amateur weather watcher or aspiring meteorologist should know this.




Are you saying that this is essentially a 1 standard deviation cone? Or are you saying that all points in the cone are equally probably, and the NHC is wrong 30% of the time? Or something else.
1517. moonlightcowboy10:55 AM EDT on October 02, 2016
You Da Man and note that Matthew is looking the most symmetrical this morning than we have seen so far.................Interesting in terms of your comment (probably correct) that he is still a "maturing" storm in spite a Cat 5 burst already..................................



  
Quoting 1520. presslord:



We can shut the blog down now and go home...no post will ever top this....


In Soviet Russia, the trof boffs YOU!
Quoting 1508. Worried989:

Currently there is 20% chance you might see tropical force winds.
if you are scared keep your eye on this chart from the hurricane center.Link
If it comes closer and looks like a hit? Board up windows and triple secure doors. get some water and
at least a grill. If your neighborhood got destroyed? Be smart and when the roads are clear go to the next town over and buy what you need. Most freakout and stand in long lines when stores are full stocked even 20 miles away. That never made any sense to me. I know some have to...not 100s or 1000s. (generally)
Those are my quick tips after living here for 45 years. Here are official tips:Link
NHC on the Blob: " Also there has been a persistent, but
inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown."
Quoting 1513. MahFL:



Actually TWC was using a wider cone, so Miami was in the cone, they called it a historical cone I believe...somewhat unrealistic.


TWC is a little tighter at some points than NHC. Example, TWC does not seem to have Miami in the cone, but NHC does. Typically, the TWC cone is even tighter than this. Goes to show just how little confidence there is in the forecast.
1531. wpb
Quoting 1513. MahFL:



Actually TWC was using a wider cone, so Miami was in the cone, they called it a historical cone I believe...somewhat unrealistic.
used by twc to increase ratings,pathedtic
Not scared here in Florida. If it hits? Been there. :)
Here in northeastern South Carolina, I'm noticing the wild birds appear to filling up on feed. I'm also seeing more deep woods birds at my feeder and even the mallards have returned to where I fed them heavy in the Spring, as babies, after being absent for weeks.

So something's afoot here.
Quoting 1525. Bigwinds:

Are you saying that this is essentially a 1 standard deviation cone? Or are you saying that all points in the cone are equally probably, and the NHC is wrong 30% of the time? Or something else.


The cone is constructed from 2/3 of the average forecast error over the last 5 years, so by definition the center can be outside the cone 1/3 of the time.
Quoting 1491. weatherman994:



Ou se moun Ayiti


Mwen pa pale kreyol... Other than sak pase and a few other phrases.

Soy latino. Hablo español. si puedes adivinar te doy una salteña y una lama.

But I'm a lifelong south Floridian who went through Andrew as a kid in SW Dade county. I normally like the idea of minimal hurricanes coming through here but not this one. I will pass.




Quoting 1515. WeatherConvoy:

Dear Fellow bloggers after looking at water vapor loops does anyone else see that the upper Level Low pressure is now centered way North over Northern Michigan/southern Ontario. The trough seems to be getting out of the way faster than models depicting. If matthew breaches 75W and is continues westward then I will have to buy the plywood


Where are you located?
Noticed the NWS put "Tropical Storm Conditions possible" in my area for Thursday. But everything is still up in the air... literally (steering currents)
Quoting 1533. OracleDeAtlantis:

Here in northeastern South Carolina, I'm noticing the wild birds appear to filling up on feed. I'm also seeing more deep woods birds at my feeder and even the mallards have returned to where I fed them heavy in the Spring, as babies, after being absent for weeks.

So somethings afoot here.


Yes, autumn is here, and winter is coming. Time to fatten up. Same as it ever was. Anyone have any ant stories to pile on this one?
1539. HarryMc
Quoting 1534. nrtiwlnvragn:



The cone is constructed from 2/3 of the average forecast error over the last 5 years, so by definition the center can be outside the cone 1/3 of the time.

That just happens to be the definition of 1 sigma or 1 standard deviation. I finally get to use the degree in math after all this time! ;)
Quoting 1507. beell:



or boffing the trof.
thats freaking great! 75 west is key, and its close
Do you all think that it will hit Jamaica directly?
1542. ackee
Trend is very important in tracking storm now the NHC and the model expected matthew to be moving NW it has not happened the
Hurricane as move west and NHC as shifted it's track slightly west if later today this is still moving west it would be clear the High pressure is getting stronger
Is the storm currently going through an EWRC, the cloud tops have seemed to warmed quiet a bit.
Quoting 1535. ParanoidAndroid:



Mwen pa pale kreyol... Other than sak pase and a few other phrases.

Soy latino. Hablo español. si puedes adivinar te doy una salteña y una lama.

But I'm a lifelong south Floridian who went through Andrew as a kid in SW Dade county. I normally like the idea of minimal hurricanes coming through here but not this one. I will pass.







O ok lol im from Ft Lauderdale but my dad is from Cap Haitian and my fiancee is from Port Au Prince
GFS and euro have moved west on 00z correct?
TWC just said the word Hazel.




Its possible that Matthew could be doing another loop. EWRC is going to take a little while.
Quoting 1519. centex:

Its not uncommon for nhc to call for turn early, maybe following models too close. They also tend to believe wobbles when it follows forecast. But no one has a better handle than NHC. If you go against them, you will regret it.

Go against the NHC? That's half the bloggers.
Quoting 1541. connie1976:

Do you all think that it will hit Jamaica directly?



No, but be prepared for heavy rain and strong winds.
1551. Crazman
1552. 7544
those outer bands from mat are reaching to 80 west
fact is, it was supposed to start moving mostly north after the last cyclonic loop and that did not happen. At this point, Matthew is close to 75W and is still down at 14N
Quoting 1530. StormJunkie:



TWC is a little tighter at some points than NHC. Example, TWC does not seem to have Miami in the cone, but NHC does. Typically, the TWC cone is even tighter than this. Goes to show just how little confidence there is in the forecast.

i think the nhcs' & mainstream medias' dissemination of information regarding weather has to take many things into consideration.  they want to keep the economy running without obstructions and they dont want to become the little boy who cried wolf.

that being said some msm outlets i have heard regarding matthew haven't necessarily been wrong, just echoing the talking points that the nhc is feeding them.  some are saying the effects for the usa are at this time unknown, so they aren't hiding too much.

however the closer matthew  gets to the western hebert box the more nervous people are going to get at the nhc.  next 24 hours are going to be very interesting if matthew moves due west westnorthwest for the next 24 hours.  even @ 5mph that puts him considerably further west, 120 miles west without making the hard 90 degree right turn.  the ridging is building in and the fact that matthew is moving slow is also allowing time for the north atl seaboard trough to move and for ridging to build in.  also the great plains trough looks like it is coming in weaker than models that ran 3-4 days ago, so everything is in flux right now.  interesting to see so many variables in play at once.
Woke up to more NC landfalls by the GFS not terribly far out in time considering, and I learned a new naughty word.

Quoting 1538. StormBohner:



Yes, autumn is here, and winter is coming. Time to fatten up. Same as it ever was. Anyone have any ant stories to pile on this one?
Quoting 1533. OracleDeAtlantis:

Here in northeastern South Carolina, I'm noticing the wild birds appear to filling up on feed. I'm also seeing more deep woods birds at my feeder and even the mallards have returned to where I fed them heavy in the Spring, as babies, after being absent for weeks.

So somethings afoot here.


Do you take note of animal behavior often or only when the weather could be bad?

Quoting 1532. Starhopper:

Not scared here in Florida. If it hits? Been there. :)


Not so much scared of the storm. It's the aftermath that worries me. If you have been there, I'm assuming Andrew from your thumbnail, then you remember the weeks afterward with no power, no ice, no air conditioning (do you just suffocate inside or open some windows to let in a breeze, and risk mosquitoes invading your home during a Zika outbreak?)... Do you still have a home with four walls and a roof to live in? Or did you get lucky and only have flooding and leaks? How far would the damage be? How far did you need to drive for ice? what about looters? do you take shifts having you and your loved ones stand guard outside your home armed like many did after Andrew?

No. Thank you.
Quoting 1532. Starhopper:

Not scared here in Florida. If it hits? Been there. :)
.....Just go with the NHC forecast and stop there. If you are a worrier I would suggest you not read these posts. This not the place to come to find comfort especially if you cannot discern the nonsense from the reasonable.
1558. Grothar
Quoting 1544. weatherman994:



O ok lol im from Ft Lauderdale but my dad is from Cap Haitian and my fiancee is from Port Au Prince


M' pale Kreyol.
1559. centex
Quoting 1529. jeffreygtc:

NHC on the Blob: " Also there has been a persistent, but
inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees
to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on
Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown."
Wow, all the experts confused by a persistent feature.
Quoting 1557. yesterway:

.....Just go with the NHC forecast and stop there. If you are a worrier I would suggest you not read these posts. This not the place to come to find comfort especially if you cannot discern the nonsense from the reasonable.
I think you missed the word "Not" there pal.
Quoting 1558. Grothar:



M' pale Kreyol.


Ou Ayisien ou se moun Ayiti
1562. 7544
yep today will be a telling day for fl first to see how far west he goes then turn main key is hes now moving west still
Appreciate all of the discussion on the wobbles and the track and will check back in tomorrow in the am; my earlier comments sticking with the current NHC track might be subject to question if Matthew does not start showing significant movement on the northward track toward the gap between Jamaica and Haiti by tomorrow morning............We shall see.

Really nice symmetry going on this morning and the eye popping out again (with the stadium effect); the most impressive and significant hurricane we have seen the Caribbean in several years now.

See Yall in the am.







1564. MahFL
Quoting 1541. connie1976:

Do you all think that it will hit Jamaica directly?



At this point, unlikely.
Climatologically, on average, the hurricanes this time of year end up further west. The slower this hurricane moves, the more chance it will end up farther west!
Matthew could go west or wsw for another 6 hours and still be un the NHC cone. He's drifting; he's not going anywhere with a purpose right now.
Quoting 1556. ParanoidAndroid:



Not so much scared of the storm. It's the aftermath that worries me. If you have been there, I'm assuming Andrew from your thumbnail, then you remember the weeks afterward with no power, no ice, no air conditioning (do you just suffocate inside or open some windows to let in a breeze, and risk mosquitoes invading your home during a Zika outbreak?)... Do you still have a home with four walls and a roof to live in? Or did you get lucky and only have flooding and leaks? How far would the damage be? How far did you need to drive for ice? what about looters? do you take shifts having you and your loved ones stand guard outside your home armed like many did after Andrew?

No. Thank you.

Still not scared. Was in Andrew on the edge of the eye. winds prob 130 Direct Hit from Wilma. In the eye.
House was not destoyed. Lost one tile in WIlma. Power not out for more than 7 hours. No flooding. I didn't say anyone shouldn't be scared. I however am not. Veteran :) Prepare, study, plan, and leave if it's a monster.
Levi noted that upper level winds are dying down, and once Matthew leaves the waters he churned up overnight conditions could be conducive for strengthening.
1569. ackee
Quoting 1565. cirrocumulus:

Climatologically, on average, the hurricanes this time of year end up further west. The slower this hurricane moves, the more chance it will end up farther west! Agree
Go to NHC and lookup Hurricane preparedness if you have anxiety about this.
Quoting 1562. 7544:

yep today will be a telling day for fl first to see how far west he goes then turn main key is hes now moving west still


yea I agree what happens today will tell us alot
I remember the old John Hope from the Weather Channel Theory. If it doesn't start turning north by 75 Lat then it is a good chance it will strike the states. Loved him on there
AT 9:15 cdt, tiny AOI just N of 20N seems to be helping push the ridge W. Click image for WV loop.

images credit: NOAA
I've never seen imagery with two distinct storms that are obviously somehow connected but have not joined together. Is there an explanation for this? It's almost, to me, like "Siamese" hurricanes that can't be separated. Is this a possible explanation for the tremendous intensity gain that was not expected earlier?
1575. Prouss
Quoting 1568. win1gamegiantsplease:

Levi noted that upper level winds are dying down, and once Matthew leaves the waters he churned up overnight conditions could be conducive for strengthening.

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
HWRF does think the southeast portion of #Matthew's core may be circulating over upwelled cold water just behind the storm.
1576. Grothar
Eye becoming clearer. Very close to 75 deg. Still a strange bifurcated system.

Quoting 1567. Starhopper:


Still not scared. Was in Andrew on the edge of the eye. winds prob 130+ Direct Hit from Wilma. In the eye.
House was not destoyed. Lost one tile in WIlma. Power not out for more than 7 hours. No flooding. I didn't say anyone shouldn't be scared. I however am not. Veteran :)


Do not fear, agree. That's nut's though. 1%'s with the expertise to keep safe, stay in a safe spot; can make it. What happened to you is, you got lucky. Plain and simple. No one should EVER stay for storms like Wilma or Andrew. Tempt fate, many have, many have lost. Gives others the thought, maybe we can make it too. Everyone in the path of anything like Wilma and Andrew should leave. Every time.
1578. 7544
Quoting 1573. Barefootontherocks:

AT 9:15 cdt, tiny AOI just N of 20N seems to be helping push the ridge W. Click image for WV loop.

images credit: NOAA


west thought the ridge was moving east to make the north path west would be bad for fl ?
Quoting 1567. Starhopper:


Still not scared. Was in Andrew on the edge of the eye. winds prob 130+ Direct Hit from Wilma. In the eye.
House was not destoyed. Lost one tile in WIlma. Power not out for more than 7 hours. No flooding. I didn't say anyone shouldn't be scared. I however am not. Veteran :)


If you had a place at the Outer Banks you might be a little scared. OBX natives are as stubborn as they come with storms but frankly nowhere in the Carolinas has seen a storm as intense as the last GFS run placed hitting Lookout. Not only does being on low-lying barrier islands have lots to do with the damage, no chance the building codes in NC are what they are in FL post-Andrew.
Quoting 1541. connie1976:

Do you all think that it will hit Jamaica directly?


If the storm is past 75W and is still below 14.7N-15N then the chances will definitely increase. I personally think it will clip the eastern fringes in St. Thomas, JA. IMHO
NHC forecast position from three days ago, not bad on position......


72H 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
Quoting 1568. win1gamegiantsplease:

Levi noted that upper level winds are dying down, and once Matthew leaves the waters he churned up overnight conditions could be conducive for strengthening.


He's been churning much of the same water for a couple days now. The surge in Haiti will be massive simply due to the amount of time he's been out there pushing water around in basically the same place.
I will take a look at the National Weather Service GFS model to see how Canadian fronts are looking!
Quoting 1556. ParanoidAndroid:



Not so much scared of the storm. It's the aftermath that worries me. If you have been there, I'm assuming Andrew from your thumbnail, then you remember the weeks afterward with no power, no ice, no air conditioning (do you just suffocate inside or open some windows to let in a breeze, and risk mosquitoes invading your home during a Zika outbreak?)... Do you still have a home with four walls and a roof to live in? Or did you get lucky and only have flooding and leaks? How far would the damage be? How far did you need to drive for ice? what about looters? do you take shifts having you and your loved ones stand guard outside your home armed like many did after Andrew?

No. Thank you.


Looters really are not the biggest thing one should worry about. The world doesn't just suddenly turn into Mad Max after a disaster. When disaster hits the grand majority of people's first response is to help eachother instead of going on some mass loot-a-palooza. Most of the reports of "mass violence" after Katrina were way overexaggerated or just downright false.
1585. SPShaw
Quoting 1553. Hurricanes101:

fact is, it was supposed to start moving mostly north after the last cyclonic loop and that did not happen. At this point, Matthew is close to 75W and is still down at 14N

11 am advisory put center location at: 14.0N 74.6W
Latest HH reading: (at 11:19 am) 14.02N 74.32W
I think the NHC remains too low in intensity, this could be a small intensity flux due to EWRC
It's a Kardashian.

Quoting 1559. centex:

Wow, all the experts confused by a persistent feature.
Hey on Jamaica? Listen to National Hurricane Center: Link

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion
18hrs in to the 12z run, GFS is slightly slower, but still showing NW movement.
1590. Patrap
Matt still only @ 14n.



A special first post too.

Dr. Sheldon Cooper explains Matthews current situation

🌊🌎🎑
NHC writing that last paragraph in each forecast discussion like it's talking to the blog lol. But I see why they need to.
Quoting 1585. SPShaw:


11 am advisory put center location at: 14.0°N 74.6°W
Latest HH reading: (at 11:30 am) 14.02N 74.32W


Actual recon location is 14.0N 74.5W
Quoting 1577. DeepSeaRising:



Do not fear, agree. That's nut's though. 1%'s with the expertise to keep safe, stay in a safe spot; can make it. What happened to you is, you got lucky. Plain and simple. No one should EVER stay for storms like Wilma or Andrew. Tempt fate, many have, many have lost. Gives others the thought, maybe we can make it too. Everyone in the path of anything like Wilma and Andrew should leave. Every time.


Yeah I stayed through Charley. Had no idea it was going to get as strong as it did so quickly along with the quicker motion to the coast. But I've learned that lesson. We were in a large hospital building, and it was heavily damaged, to the point they evacuated it as soon as the weather cleared. Wind instruments nearby failed @ 175mph. Not doing that again ever...
Quoting 1590. Patrap:

Matt still only @ 14n.



A special first post too.

Dr. Sheldon Cooper explains Matthews current situation

🌊🌎🎑


Eye is clearing out yet again.
Quoting 1566. muddertracker:

Matthew could go west or wsw for another 6 hours and still be un the NHC cone. He's drifting; he's not going anywhere with a purpose right now.


It's barreling west at 3 mph. It should be at 75 W in a day or so.
glad someone knows where matthew will end up.
Quoting 1585. SPShaw:


11 am advisory put center location at: 14.0°N 74.6°W
Latest HH reading: (at 11:30 am) 14.02N 74.32W


Actually 74.6 is pretty close but bottom line is its not moving north
Quoting 1587. HaoleboySurfEC:

It's a Kardashian.




Great analogy. No matter what the storm does or looks like, they're all focused on the backside.
1599. Patrap


🌊🌎🎑

Quoting 1567. Starhopper:


Still not scared. Was in Andrew on the edge of the eye. winds prob 130 Direct Hit from Wilma. In the eye.
House was not destoyed. Lost one tile in WIlma. Power not out for more than 7 hours. No flooding. I didn't say anyone shouldn't be scared. I however am not. Veteran :) Prepare, study, plan, and leave if it's a monster.
not being intimidated by a major hurricane is very dangerous. even if a structure is designed to take 140 mph winds tornadoes happen all over the place in hurricanes. 

be safe, be careful, be prepared.
Quoting 1579. win1gamegiantsplease:



If you had a place at the Outer Banks you might be a little scared. OBX natives are as stubborn as they come with storms but frankly nowhere in the Carolinas has seen a storm as intense as the last GFS run placed hitting Lookout. Not only does being on low-lying barrier islands have lots to do with the damage, no chance the building codes in NC are what they are in FL post-Andrew.

True enough. So should I be scared now? :) I could do a simile too. If I was on a boat at a marina in Andrew it would have been a total loss. Even here where I had little to no damage other than trees. It takes going through some bad ones before you realize how bad they are and where is worst. Thin barrier islands for instance=gonna be bad.
Loop posters see #1458
Quoting 1572. SaladTosser:

I remember the old John Hope from the Weather Channel Theory. If it doesn't start turning north by 75 Lat then it is a good chance it will strike the states. Loved him on there


Was so sad when he passed. Those were the gold old days of the weather channel. Before they had shows. And every other commercial was for best western " it's a beautiful Mornin..."
No one should ever stay in Andrew or Wilma...way to alienate thousands. :) Been there done that. MADE IT.
1h
HurricaneTracker App‏ @hurrtrackerapp

Sounding in Miami at 12Z showed 500mb height at 588dm. It was forecasted by 0Z GFS to be 587dm. Ridge a bit stronger than forecast. #Matthew
1607. Patrap
AF303 Mission #13 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:32 UTC Oct 02, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 13.58°N 74.07°W
Bearing: 135° at 167 kt
Altitude: 3091 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 61 kt at 216°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 997.8 mb





Quoting 1579. win1gamegiantsplease:



If you had a place at the Outer Banks you might be a little scared. OBX natives are as stubborn as they come with storms but frankly nowhere in the Carolinas has seen a storm as intense as the last GFS run placed hitting Lookout. Not only does being on low-lying barrier islands have lots to do with the damage, no chance the building codes in NC are what they are in FL post-Andrew.


Agreed, not liking the looks of this projected path right now.
1609. robj144
Quoting 1567. Starhopper:


Still not scared. Was in Andrew on the edge of the eye. winds prob 130 Direct Hit from Wilma. In the eye.
House was not destoyed. Lost one tile in WIlma. Power not out for more than 7 hours. No flooding. I didn't say anyone shouldn't be scared. I however am not. Veteran :) Prepare, study, plan, and leave if it's a monster.


Do you live in a fortress? I lost power for 7 days with Wilma.
Quoting 1600. odinslightning:


not being intimidated by a major hurricane is very dangerous. even if a structure is designed to take 140 mph winds tornadoes happen all over the place in hurricanes. 

be safe, be careful, be prepared.


125+ for 4 hours straight ...gusts to 154. Still standin' :) Prepare, plan, study, leave early if you're uncomfortable.
1611. Grothar
Quoting 1561. weatherman994:



Ou Ayisien ou se moun Ayiti


Non, se Ameriken mwen ye, men m’ te aprann kreyol isit la.
1612. BayFog

Matthew continues to defy the progs, if anything , moving even MORE westward now.
1613. Patrap
Quoting 1546. hurrikanehunter14:

TWC just said the word Hazel.


Wonder how many people watching TWC actually know what that is. I replied to your mail btw if you didn't check. The notification for new mail is busted on here, still.
Quoting 1579. win1gamegiantsplease:



If you had a place at the Outer Banks you might be a little scared. OBX natives are as stubborn as they come with storms but frankly nowhere in the Carolinas has seen a storm as intense as the last GFS run placed hitting Lookout. Not only does being on low-lying barrier islands have lots to do with the damage, no chance the building codes in NC are what they are in FL post-Andrew.


I've always wondered why it is even legal to live on thin barrier islands considering they are near-certain death traps for storms. Insurance companies must hate them, though.
Quoting 1604. hurrikanehunter14:



Was so sad when he passed. Those were the gold old days of the weather channel. Before they had shows. And every other commercial was for best western " it's a beautiful Mornin..."


And Folgers, the best part of waking up. Speaking of which... I could use a cup (or a pot) of coffee right now. Watching Matthew has me glued.
Quoting 1610. Starhopper:


125+ for 4 hours straight ...gusts to 154. Still standin' :) Prepare, plan, study, leave early if you're uncomfortable.


If you are going to leave don't leave too late though. That's the thing.
Haiti is already receiving bands...what a long week ahead
Link
1620. ProPoly
Quoting 1600. odinslightning:


not being intimidated by a major hurricane is very dangerous. even if a structure is designed to take 140 mph winds tornadoes happen all over the place in hurricanes. 

be safe, be careful, be prepared.



Stuff in the 140mph winds also happens.
1621. ackee
Crown weather

Matthew is forecast to pass to the east of Jamaica on Monday and may spare the island the worst effects of the hurricane. With that said, Matthew’s current west-northwestward track will need to be monitored in case it tracks much closer to Jamaica than what is forecast right now.

- Matthew is expected to track across eastern Cuba and western Haiti on Tuesday as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Devastating and catastrophic damage is possible across eastern Cuba and Haiti due to the combination of extremely strong winds, catastrophic flooding from heavy rain and a very high storm surge.

- Then Matthew is forecast to move northward through the central Bahamas on Wednesday bringing severe hurricane conditions to the central Bahamas.

- Very high forecast uncertainty by late this week of where Matthew may go & how much impact the hurricane may have on the US East Coast late this week through next weekend.

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft and satellite imagery indicates that Matthew is tracking somewhere between a west-northwest and a northwest course this morning. The forward speed that Matthew is moving at has wavered significantly over the last 24 hours and has ranged from a stall to a forward speed of 5 mph. The steering winds around Matthew are somewhat chaotic in that if Matthew undergoes strengthening again, it will be tugged to the northwest and north-northwest towards eastern Cuba and Haiti. On the other hand, if Matthew weakens some, it may be steered more towards the west-northwest and not completely turn to the northwest and north until it is along the 80 West Longitude line.
1622. Patrap
O'Lordy..
Best guess about Matthews twin as for Matthews strength goes is that this feature has kept the storm's size smaller giving it a easier time ramping up to cat 5 winds. I would also say that the feature is a bit parasitic in a sense it seems to flare up at matthew's expense constantly. Really wish they would go inside it and see what's going on for scientific purposes before it goes away.
Quoting 1605. Starhopper:

No one should ever stay in Andrew or Wilma...way to alienate thousands. :) Been there done that. MADE IT.

Andrew was to make a right hand turn before it hit land, people down in Southern Dade were not expecting a direct hit. That is why we stayed.
1625. beell
Blob-o-genesis.


MIMIC image from 09/29 22:45Z
Quoting 1546. hurrikanehunter14:

TWC just said the word Hazel.


Hazel? You mean that dreadful beast from the 1950s?
Quoting 1612. BayFog:


Matthew continues to defy the progs, if anything , moving even MORE westward now.


I'm just not to crazy about the due west movement....
Let's hope this thing starts it's turn sooner than later....


Taco :o)
12z GFS still looking very similar to 06z, but 6-12hrs slower.
Quoting 1617. cirrocumulus:




You need to "right click" on the image and then copy that address.
Quoting 1577. DeepSeaRising:



Do not fear, agree. That's nut's though. 1%'s with the expertise to keep safe, stay in a safe spot; can make it. What happened to you is, you got lucky. Plain and simple. No one should EVER stay for storms like Wilma or Andrew. Tempt fate, many have, many have lost. Gives others the thought, maybe we can make it too. Everyone in the path of anything like Wilma and Andrew should leave. Every time.
Leaving every time is ABSOLUTELY the wrong advice. If everybody leaves, the roads will be clogged and people may get killed while trying to evacuate. Do YOU want to be trapped in your car when the storm arrives??? Where are you going to go if the storm moves north into the area you evacuated to??? The best advice for super strong storms is to move inland. It is the storm surge that causes most of the deaths, not wind.
Quoting 1584. FunnelVortex:



Looters really are not the biggest thing one should worry about. The world doesn't just suddenly turn into Mad Max after a disaster. When disaster hits the grand majority of people's first response is to help eachother instead of going on some mass loot-a-palooza. Most of the reports of "mass violence" after Katrina were way overexaggerated or just downright false.

Yeah I guess looters would be a problem. Not where I lived, oh some tried. Taken down immediately. The cops were so thick right after, I even felt guilty standing in my own yard. They are not to be messed with at all. I stayed off the streets for 2 days till it chilled out.
Quoting 1624. MiamiNative:


Andrew was to make a right hand turn before it hit land, people down in Southern Dade were not expecting a direct hit. That is why we stayed.

And you are here. Glad you made it :) I remember that. It wasn't supposed to be that strong either?
I doubt Matthew will move W enough to put S.Fl back in the cone but hopefully enough to spare Haiti
Quoting 1605. Starhopper:

No one should ever stay in Andrew or Wilma...way to alienate thousands. :) Been there done that. MADE IT.


Player on the last Giants SB team rode out Andrew as a kid in Homestead, Antrel Rolle (also went to UM). When Sandy approached the NE he was asked about it and said the experience still haunts him. Only one room was left in their home and they found their lawnmower several blocks away. [Link]
Quoting 1628. StormJunkie:

12z GFS still looking very similar to 06z, but 6-12hrs slower.


For the first 72-96 hrs seems the GFS has not changed much in 2-3 days.
Matthew just entering a warmer water temp. area.
Quoting 1574. dcadavid:

I've never seen imagery with two distinct storms that are obviously somehow connected but have not joined together. Is there an explanation for this? It's almost, to me, like "Siamese" hurricanes that can't be separated. Is this a possible explanation for the tremendous intensity gain that was not expected earlier?

My hypothesis is the Blob is related to Matt's southern rotation dragging dry Colombian air off the land. I would expect the Blob to dissipate once Matt get's further North. We'll see.
1638. centex
Quoting 1598. win1gamegiantsplease:



Great analogy. No matter what the storm does or looks like, they're all focused on the backside.
I thought analogy cant be used anymore, someone may be offened.
Quoting 1616. ecflweatherfan:



And Folgers, the best part of waking up. Speaking of which... I could use a cup (or a pot) of coffee right now. Watching Matthew has me glued.

Just making my cup of Blue Mountain coffee. YUM!
So Matthew seems to be doing what he feels like at this point. Is he getting rid of baby brother?
Quoting 1567. Starhopper:


Still not scared. Was in Andrew on the edge of the eye. winds prob 130 Direct Hit from Wilma. In the eye.
House was not destoyed. Lost one tile in WIlma. Power not out for more than 7 hours. No flooding. I didn't say anyone shouldn't be scared. I however am not. Veteran :) Prepare, study, plan, and leave if it's a monster.
If you had a direst hit from the Eye of Wilma, and in the same house, you were not in the Northern Eyewall of Andrew. In Andrew we had minimal damage to the house, it is very well built custom house, and were without power for only 8 or so hours, due to the generators we had at the time. We did lose power with FPL for a little over 6 weeks though.
1641. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop




🎑🌎🌊🌞
1642. Wrass
Can someone tell me how to post a Pic
Quoting 1620. ProPoly:



Stuff in the 140mph winds also happens.

I was in a block house. if I lived on the shore? A trailer? or a boat? I would have been long gone. :)
Actually I would have left in Wilma? But I had someone who refused to leave. Ah well.
northward jog just occurred, lets see if it continues.
Quoting 1624. MiamiNative:


Andrew was to make a right hand turn before it hit land, people down in Southern Dade were not expecting a direct hit. That is why we stayed.
I was working at the Camp Humphreys weather station in South Korea at the time. Two days before the storm hit, Homestead AFB forecasters called for winds 150kts gusting to 175kts...again, two days before it hit I called my parents who lived in Perrine (just north of Homestead) and most of my family left (My sister stayed.) They originally had heard that it was going to go into Ft. Lauderdale, but when they heard what Homestead's forecast was, they went to Orlando to be with my brother.
12z GFS looks like it might show a shift to the E in the later time frames.
Quoting 1630. bluehaze27:

Leaving every time is ABSOLUTELY the wrong advice. If everybody leaves, the roads will be clogged and people may get killed while trying to evacuate. Do YOU want to be trapped in your car when the storm arrives??? Where are you going to go if the storm moves north into the area you evacuated to??? The best advice for super strong storms is to move inland. It is the storm surge that causes most of the deaths, not wind.

That is exactly right. The only reason for evacuations is storm surge (or if you live in a mobile home or other non sturdy building). Otherwise, board up, prepare, hunker down and wait it out. Clogged roads would be a nightmare.
Quoting 1612. BayFog:


Matthew continues to defy the progs, if anything , moving even MORE westward now.



Doing even more loops. Matt is screwing with our heads.
I think NHC did a great job with position on this advisory. Recon places it at 14N 74.55W as of 11:19ET NHC said 14N 74.6W at 11ET. I'd say that's pretty close, about 3 miles.
Quoting 1615. FunnelVortex:



I've always wondered why it is even legal to live on thin barrier islands considering they are near-certain death traps for storms. Insurance companies must hate them, though.


If there wasn't a market/profit there wouldn't be
Recon found the eye jogged northward - maybe the start of the north turn?
1652. MahFL
Quoting 1637. jeffreygtc:


My hypothesis is the Blob is related to Matt's southern rotation dragging dry Colombian air off the land. I would expect the Blob to dissipate once Matt get's further North. We'll see.


Dr. Parcel of TWC said it's due to easterly trade winds pushing up moisture against the east side of Matthew, as Matthew moves out of the Caribbean that will go away.
I'm so interested in the beastly brother blob to matthew's right. So is this blob like a tropical depression? For example. Let's just say one state or island - just a hypothetical - gets hit with Matthew's eye while at the same time, the state or island to the right gets hit with the center of the beastly brother blob. What would the beastly brother blob be bringing in terms of wind?

Will the blob get its own COC or is it just lots and lots and lots of rain?

Tell me about this blob.

Meanwhile, prayers for Haiti. I pray Haiti is spared
1654. Patrap
The CDO in the Dvorak pickle

Not everyone who stayed for Wilma and Andrew survived. To brag about staying for those is no badge of courage, it's a badge of the literal definition of ignorance. The last thing we want to see here is someone stay when they shouldn't with Matthew. Human nature is hard enough to overcome as it is.
12z GFS has Matthew moving slowly NNE towards the eastern part of the Haitian peninsula...

Ridge would have to break down quite a bit for that to happen.
Quoting 1646. StormJunkie:

12z GFS looks like it might show a shift to the E in the later time frames.

Agree. Subtle changes but my thoughts would be an east shift if anything this run.
1658. BayFog
Quoting 1574. dcadavid:

I've never seen imagery with two distinct storms that are obviously somehow connected but have not joined together. Is there an explanation for this? It's almost, to me, like "Siamese" hurricanes that can't be separated. Is this a possible explanation for the tremendous intensity gain that was not expected earlier?

No doubt the "companion" is sapping energy that would otherwise make Matthew a monster. I've been speculating that it's a result of a strong trade wind flow banging into a strong counterflow of slightly greater density coming off the South American landmass. Predicting that as the storm puts distance between itself and South America, the companion will shrink down to an ordinary convergence band, if it doesn't dissipate entirely.
1659. hamla
Quoting 1641. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop




🎑🌎🌊🌞
looks like another loop d loop ??
1661. Ed22
Quoting 1612. BayFog:


Matthew continues to defy the progs, if anything , moving even MORE westward now.
The eye is the process of cleaning out now moving westward, it could reach 75.5 west and 14.4 north by late this evening.
1662. Patrap
From the 11am PA


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is
drifting toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward
the north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew
will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Across western Haiti, expect total rain
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 16
inches, while northern sections of Haiti can expect lower amounts
in the 1 to 3 inch range with localized maxima near 5 inches.
Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20
inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and eastern
Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This
rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 10
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through Sunday. Matthew
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica,
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
1663. MahFL
Quoting 1644. ElConando:

northward jog just occurred, lets see if it continues.


Nope, it's the eye spinning around.
Looks like the turn N is underway now per last few sat frames.
Here we go again, blob behind is building again. Water vapor on the increase and cloud tops cooling rapidly.
Quoting 1651. Envoirment:

Recon found the eye jogged northward - maybe the start of the north turn?


IMO looks like a small cyclonic loop again as far as satellite is concerned. But we shall see.
As of 11am, ACE for 2016 is now at 69.5825

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Best Track 4.1725
02L (Bonnie) Operational 0.7725
03L (Colin) Operational 1.1350
04L (Danielle) Best Track 0.4050
05L (Earl) Operational 3.6350
06L (Fiona) Operational 2.4250
07L (Gaston) Operational 24.2925
08L (Eight) Operational 0
09L (Hermine) Operational 3.0925
10L (Ian) Operational 2.9575
11L (Julia) Operational 1.2250
12L (Karl) Operational 5.8150
13L (Lisa) Operational 2.2600
14L (Matthew) Operational 17.3950
Total 69.5825

Matthew's core had become very ragged this morning, but in the last 2 satellite frames the eye became more distinct and the the CDO more healthy.
Should the blob be named "Bob"?
Quoting 1647. avthunder:


That is exactly right. The only reason for evacuations is storm surge (or if you live in a mobile home or other non sturdy building). Otherwise, board up, prepare, hunker down and wait it out. Clogged roads would be a nightmare.
That's why I live on an airstrip and keep an aircraft at home! Florida native. Evacuating a peninsula by car with today's population is not an option.
1671. Patrap
More of that angular torque imparting the coc to do whifferdills along the mean slow path.

test 11:56
Quoting 1664. StormBohner:

Looks like the turn N is underway now per last few sat frames.


same was said last night, looks like it may be making another small loop
1674. LBAR
That blob is could be "pulling" Matthew back a little from his projected path as well. It's quite an interesting feature.
Quoting 1663. MahFL:



Nope, it's the eye spinning around.

Look the storm is doing yet another loop while drifting. Eye is also about to clear out.
Quoting 1634. win1gamegiantsplease:



Player on the last Giants SB team rode out Andrew as a kid in Homestead, Antrel Rolle (also went to UM). When Sandy approached the NE he was asked about it and said the experience still haunts him. Only one room was left in their home and they found their lawnmower several blocks away. [Link]

Well man. The RED ZONE. Stay out of the red zone. It's why I was on the Edge of Andrew. I could see where it was going. I made sure I was outside of that clean sweep zone. It didn't even fully get over my house, but to be safe I went 30 miles away. WInds were still like 90 there too. Outside the eyewall. Doable though. A few miles makes all the difference when it's a monster. Wilma was bad. Not a total monster. Andrew was. In a trailer? Any is a monster. Beware.
Quoting 1653. truecajun:

I'm so interested in the beastly brother blob to matthew's right. So is this blob like a tropical depression? For example. Let's just say one state or island - just a hypothetical - gets hit with Matthew's eye while at the same time, the state or island to the right gets hit with the center of the beastly brother blob. What would the beastly brother blob be bringing in terms of wind?

Will the blob get its own COC or is it just lots and lots and lots of rain?

Tell me about this blob.

Meanwhile, prayers for Haiti. I pray Haiti is spared


That blob is part of Mathew, it's doubtful it will form it's own COC.
Quoting 1651. Envoirment:

Recon found the eye jogged northward - maybe the start of the north turn?
I'm assuming that's good news??
1680. Grothar
Even if Matthew moves further west before the turn, the blob to east of Matthew could bring devastating rains to Haiti. That could even be worse than strong winds. The deforestation has been tremendous on the eastern portion of Hispaniola.



1681. Patrap
AF303 Mission #13 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: In Storm

As of 15:52 UTC Oct 02, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 13.15°N 73.90°W
Bearing: 270° at 117 kt
Altitude: 3130 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 43 kt at 221°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1001.9 mb



img src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF 303-1314A-MATTHEW_zoom.png"

🌞🌊🌎🎑
1682. centex
Is NHC scared of erroring west? While understandible i wonder.
Quoting 1670. yesterway:

That's why I live on an airstrip and keep an aircraft at home! Florida native. Evacuating a peninsula by car with today's population is not an option.

Sure it is. Just not a last minute option.
Quoting 1671. Patrap:

More of that angular torque imparting the coc to do whifferdills along the mean slow path.




I've been lurking for a few days (florida here) and learning a lot, but I have no idea whats going on in this sentence LOL
1685. MrEvans

Quoting 1682. centex:

Is NHC scared of erroring west? While understandible i wonder.
I was just thinking the exact same thing, and I figure, yeah, they are.
Growing in size, meandering, scary stuff. Slow motion jeopardizing forecast points. Not sure what that means 7 days from now.


Quoting 1612. BayFog:


Matthew continues to defy the progs, if anything , moving even MORE westward now.
Quoting 1677. Starhopper:


Well man. The RED ZONE. Stay out of the red zone. It's why I was on the Edge of Andrew. I could see where it was going. I made sure I was outside of that clean sweep zone. It didn't even fully get over my house, but to be safe I went 30 miles away. WInds were still like 90 there too. Outside the eyewall. Doable though. A few miles makes all the difference when it's a monster. Wilma was bad. Not a total monster. Andrew was. EDIT: if you are in a trailer? Any is a monster. Beware.

Quoting 1671. Patrap:

More of that angular torque imparting the coc to do whifferdills along the mean slow path.




Ain't lookin' too ragged now. Does anyone have any information if it underwent an ewrc? Last I heard was no..
1689. MahFL
Quoting 1668. waccamatt:

Matthew's core had become very ragged this morning, but in the last 2 satellite frames the eye became more distinct and the the CDO more healthy.


Yes Matthew just completed an eye wall replacement cycle, now the wind fields (hurricane and tropical storm force ) should expand some ( the new eye diameter will be larger ).
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1691. BayFog

Upper/midlevel low west of Matthew appears to be too weak to overwhelm the strong upper outflow/anticyclone atop the storm.
Researchers from the University of California, Irvine and NASA have uncovered a remarkably strong link between high wildfire risk in the Amazon basin and the devastating hurricanes that ravage North Atlantic shorelines. The climate scientists’ findings appear in the journal Geophysical Research Letters near the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s calamitous August 2005 landfall at New Orleans.
Quoting 1667. Hurricanes101:

As of 11am, ACE for 2016 is now at 69.5825

Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Alex) Best Track 4.1725
02L (Bonnie) Operational 0.7725
03L (Colin) Operational 1.1350
04L (Danielle) Best Track 0.4050
05L (Earl) Operational 3.6350
06L (Fiona) Operational 2.4250
07L (Gaston) Operational 24.2925
08L (Eight) Operational 0
09L (Hermine) Operational 3.0925
10L (Ian) Operational 2.9575
11L (Julia) Operational 1.2250
12L (Karl) Operational 5.8150
13L (Lisa) Operational 2.2600
14L (Matthew) Operational 17.3950
Total 69.5825



Matthew is really boosting our ACE quite a lot and by the time Matthew is done we may have up to 90-95 ACE, which is about the average for a full season. This season will not end up below normal.
Quoting 1651. Envoirment:

Recon found the eye jogged northward - maybe the start of the north turn?

Or a loop
The eye appears to be larger than before waiting to see if it will finish clearing out.
Quoting 1688. win1gamegiantsplease:



Ain't lookin' too ragged now. Does anyone have any information if it underwent an ewrc? Last I heard was no..


Not sure if that was EWRC, but looks to doughnut at this point if you ask me.
1697. Patrap
Quoting 1684. 70meters:



I've been lurking for a few days (florida here) and learning a lot, but I have no idea whats going on in this sentence LOL


Its kinda like holding a #2 pencil n yer parallel to the floor.


That represents the storms path.

Now,place a spring coil onto the pencil...and the coils around the pencil represents the storm motion along the pencil.


In laymen's term..I use that when I speak about it.
12z East because of that troughiness... way stronger than on the 6z
1699. MahFL
Slightly bigger eye :

1700. BayFog

Upper level low and associated jet streak coming into the West Coast a bit further north than predicted. This will alter the predictions for the overall flow across the CONUS and undoubtedly, the forecast for Matthew's path and strength.
Let's remember Katrina. Mandatory evacuations sound good, reality is, many have no way out. Due to age, poverty, lack of anyone in their lives, and other variables. Not sure there has been any movement on remedying that.
1431. presslord
1507. beell


While your humor may be appreciated by a bunch of cigar-smoking males at a midnight poker game...
There are ladies present, and I, for one, find these comments vulgar and offensive to the feminine gender.
NE hop? Back on track?
1704. mfcmom
Quoting 1619. jeffreygtc:

Haiti is already receiving bands...what a long week ahead
Link

Prayers for Haiti.
1705. Patrap

98L is doing its thing. Could become Nicole by tomorrow if this keeps up.
Quoting 1705. Patrap:




Stadium effect.
Quoting 1648. isothunder67:




Doing even more loops. Matt is screwing with our heads.
Matthew is saying I will do what I want to do and nobody will tell me otherwise :D
Quoting 1682. centex:

Is NHC scared of erroring west? While understandible i wonder.
Newbie here - weather junkie to the max. Learning so much from all of you. THANK YOU SO MUCH! And I hope I'm doing my first post right, but absolutely agree 100%. The last thing the NHC wants to do is alert mainland US unnecessarily. With the cone variances you all have enlightened me too. Here are my thoughts/questions. If Matthew crosses 75, then the cone will shift left, right? If so, here are some thoughts: From West Palm Beach to West End of Bahamas is 66 miles/Freeport 203; Jupiter Inlet 71/214; Stuart 86/233. Any Floridian (native here) has made these trips. Talk about margin of error!!!!
Quoting 1508. Worried989:

Hello and good morning all!
Now,I've been monitoring this storm closely..and needless to say,I'm a bit spooked.
As someone who lives in Broward County,Fl,One question to ask:
How screwed are we? I've looked at all the models and everything but there seems to be a lot of conflicting..everything.
So,Assuming the worst case scenario and that we ARE going to take it up the ass from Matthew..How much damage are we looking at?
This is from someone who rode out Sandy in NYC..(And Matthew's just confirming my belief that moving to Florida was a VERY bad idea.)

-A scared floridian(Who hopefully won't be for long)
I am a Floridian. I have been through all storms since 2004. The odds of a worst case scenario from a human death toll perspective are very low. If you live west of I-95, the odds get lower still (no storm surge). A Cat 5 eye running up the coast would cause extreme damage. And this is very low probability. A direct hit to FLL or Miami from the South has not been publicly modeled but would be devastating as well. The most extreme model would be a CAT5 Andrew type storm which spins over the bahamas and comes in due West to FLL. This has been modeled by Florida in their last stress test (with a slightly weaker storm) and the results vary from approximately 20-50 Billion USD. A direct hit of the eye (this is currently a small storm) would have the effect of an EF3 or EF4 tornado, leveling houses or removing second stories of houses. It would be truly catastrophic. The odds do not favor any of these scenarios and the most likely hits would involve land interaction which would reduce the storm to a Cat 3 or below, which would be similar to Wilma of 2005. Varying degrees of roof and interior damage and moderate storm surge. You need supplies and water for at least a week because electricity will be off for that long in any significant storm. Worrying about this low probaility scenario is less important than being prepared. And as nobody is taking this seriously, it is an excellent time to get prepared by shopping today. Patrap has a very good, detailed, post on preparation. This not at a worry threshold by any means, it is at the monitor and prepare level. I think the NHC forecast is by far the best and should be your guide regarding probabilities.
1711. Patrap
GFS a tad slower this run?
there a good ch that mat could go back up too 150 too 160 mph tonight once the high clear out
1714. IKE
Matthew may finally be moving north now.
1715. Patrap
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12z GFS finds the weakness caused by the low over the NE now, similar to prior ECMWF models. Not another model tug-o'-war...
1717. Patrap
AF303 Mission #13 into MATTHEW
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance  |  Status: In Storm

As of 16:12 UTC Oct 02, 2016:

Aircraft Position: 13.15°N 74.88°W
Bearing: 270° at 234 kt
Altitude: 3121 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 35 kt at 263°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1001.7 mb



Quoting 1714. IKE:

Matthew may finally be moving north now.


Yup looks like heading NNW at 335.
1719. SLU
1720. Patrap
1721. SLU
Quoting 1716. win1gamegiantsplease:

12z GFS finds the weakness caused by the low over the NE now, similar to prior ECMWF models. Not another model tug-o'-war...



Canadian Maritimes looks to get it bad in this run.
NEW BLOG
.
1725. IKE
A no-hitter for USA on 12z GFS.
Quoting 1725. IKE:

A no-hitter for USA on 12z GFS.


but still comes vary close too the USA
1727. Patrap

Funktop

1728. Patrap
Recon is showing more northward movement from the last eye pass - looks like Matthew has started moving north now.

Quoting 1729. Envoirment:

Recon is showing more northward movement from the last eye pass - looks like Matthew has started moving north now.


just a wobble
Quoting 1729. Envoirment:

Recon is showing more northward movement from the last eye pass - looks like Matthew has started moving north now.


Yes. Looks real this time, and pretty much on forecast track per WV sat with NHC track overlay. They are usually good with 12-24 forecast.
Euro ensembles will be out in an hour. Interested to see what they show.
Would like to know what's going on inside right now, the structure looks the best it has since it was a Cat 5 probably is approaching that now. Eye clearing even more. Anyone have satellite estimates on strength right now?
That does not look like northward movement.... it has already done that numerous times, lets wait until its gone a few miles
1735. vis0

Quoting 1167. Grothar:



Joe, we were deconed and now reconed.
They thought you were Columbia [vis0 smacked zilly by Steve Harvey]

i know i know it should be the luvly Miss Philippines as the example but they'd had there share pof storms this  every year so i used the other luvly contestant.
(this cmmnt was added after the active bliogbyte was two numbers ahead in respects of the serious of the storm)