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Hurricane warnings for Baja; 94L forming spiral bands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:36 PM GMT on August 31, 2009

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where powerful Hurricane Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. Outer rain-bands of the hurricane will be appearing on Los Cabos radar soon, though the Mexican Weather Service web site has been hard to reach today. The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model's solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Jimena taken by NASA'a MODIS instrument at 2020 UTC Sunday, 8/30/09.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) near 14.5N, 52W, about 500 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass do not show a surface circulation yet, though 94L does have a large envelope of moisture and some modest heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT noted winds up to 30 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably, and dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the ocean temperature are a moderately warm 28°C. Visible satellite loops over the past two hours show low-level spiral bands developing on 94L's northeast side, and I give a 70% chance the Hurricane Hunters will find a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday when they investigate 94L.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L, showing low-level spiral bands developing on the northeast side.

The center of 94L probably passed over Buoy 41040, located at 14.5N, 53W over the past hour. Winds blew northeasterly early this morning, then went calm, then shifted to southerly late this morning. The winds were less than 10 knots during the center passage, so the circulation of 94L is not yet well-defined. The pressure fell significantly as 94L moved over the buoy (seen only after one removes the wiggles due to daily atmospheric tide effect present in the tropics). 94L will appear on Martinique radar on Tuesday.

The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days. The HWRF model develops 94L into a hurricane 4 days from now, as does the SHIPS intensity model, but other models, such as the GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS, do not develop 94L at all.

Model solutions for the track of 94L are divergent. Water vapor satellite loops show two upper-level lows to the north and northwest of 94L that are pulling the storm to the west-northwest, and 94L's motion is expected to range between the west-northwest and northwest over the next three days. By Tuesday, 94L will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 10 mph. Most of the models predict that the steering influence of the upper-level lows will pull 94L far enough north that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles, with a closest approach occurring Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF and HWRF models have 94L passing within 200 miles of the islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday.

At the longer ranges, the fate of 94L is highly uncertain. The Canadian model turns 94L to the north near Bermuda, then out to sea, while the NOGAPS model foresees a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week. Both of these solutions are believable. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into 94L on Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of an old cold front are bringing cloudiness and showers to the northern Gulf of Mexico and waters offshore North and South Carolina. The GFS and NAM models indicate an area of low pressure may develop along this old front near the Florida Panhandle or off the coast of North Carolina by Thursday. However, such a low may be extratropical and not tropical.

My next post will be between 3 - 5pm this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting SavannahStorm:
NOGAPS at 180 hours



We'll have to wait and see if that spans out.
Wilma was a cat 3 not a 1.
And so the shear starts to rip 94L apart. Anticyclone sure worked out. EURO nailed another one. The latest run shows it a fish as well.
Quoting mikatnight:


It's not a Star Wars storm trooper suit, is it?


No, it's better than that. Lots of kevlar, froggtoggs, helmet, fireman boots, extrication gloves, catcher's leg protectors and torso protection and other assorted goodies that CycloneOz would have to divulge. Those are just the items I saw. He's ready to go. Obviously he's been thru enough hurricanes to know what to do in any situation.
94L wrapping the area of showers and thunderstorms on the western quadrant around its COC.

Quoting A4Guy:


I am up in Broward and it was a disaster here after Wilma as well. No way we only had Cat 1 winds - don't care what they say! If it truly was Cat 1 winds...then if we ever get a Cat 3 storm, this place will be leveled.


there was A LOT of tornadic activity with wima as well i think. there must have been because there is no way 4 huge trees in my house were knocked down so quickly
1007. IKE
Quoting 900MB:


Confused. Dr. Jeff says: "The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days"


He should have a new blog soon...within an hour or 2.

Looking at the 1800UTC CIMSS shear map and the visible on 94L...it's getting sheared pretty good.
Quoting stormno:
no stormno is giving his opinion just like he did the other 4 storms which he was correct on...so you guys sit there and dream if you cant see the shear and dry air well i cant help you...im just giving my forecast and erika wont even get to minimum hurricane strength...conditions are to hostile and if you guys dont see it im sorry...Stormno


You are downcasting yet call it Erika like it has already developed...odd
Quoting btwntx08:

read post 964

i did.

read my post #995 for a response to that.
Quoting kuppenskup:
Wilma was a cat 3 not a 1.


Not according to the NHC it was a Cat 1 when it hit Fla
Quoting rwdobson:


He was talking about CABO, i.e. Hurricane Jimena. You are such a Flacaster you even have Jimena going to South Forida...
lol, i misread it!
Quoting markymark1973:
And so the shear starts to rip 94L apart. Anticyclone sure worked out. EURO nailed another one. The latest run shows it a fish as well.

outlier throw that away for now
Hurricane Wilma Was Cat 3 Over Florida..



I posted this quikscat earlier but if you look it caught the tailend of circulation around 14/53.5
30TH Aniversary of a big tragedy

Today we remember the landing of one the most dangerous huracane that hit the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1979; was the huracane DAVID.

it took a lot of lives, destroyed hundred of homes and changed the life many Dominican

Em midst of this chaos I was born

YES TODAY IS MY BIRTHDAY.



1016. Relix
Quoting IKE:


He should have a new blog soon...within an hour or 2.

Looking at the 1800UTC CIMSS shear map and the visible on 94L...it's getting sheared pretty good.


So Ike... RIP for the 3rd time since Saturday? =P. It's not gonna get sheared to death at this point.
Quoting JLPR:
Also who cares what anyone here says =P
We will soon know exactly how is 94L since there is a HH plane heading to it right?


Tomorrow.
never mind...south fla does'nt need a hurricane right now
It's getting sheared...
It's developing....
The moisture is wrapping around the center...
It's going poof...

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Time for a drink and hunt for a crystal ball.
14.6 or 15.6...what is the rigth position?
Quoting stormpetrol:

I posted this quikscat earlier but if you look it caught the tailend of circulation around 14/53.5

Looks elongated on a NE/SW axis.
Quoting canesrule1:
94L wrapping the area of showers and thunderstorms on the western quadrant around its COC.


correct coming together with the main circulation which was always south & west of the main area of convection.
1023. A4Guy
Quoting kuppenskup:
Wilma was a cat 3 not a 1.


Wilma made landfall in southWEST FL as a Cat 3 - however, it was widely reported that the east cost - especially Miami-Dade adn Broward counties only recevied Cat 1 winds. The damage seen in those counties - especially Broward - was not commensurate with a Cat 1 storm. Katrina was a Cat 1 storm when it moved through here, and didn't do a third of what Wilma did (though Katrina was just forming...vs. Wilma having a ton of angular momentum built up from being such a powerful storm earlier in its life).
1024. Relix
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
14.6 or 15.6...what is the rigth position?


Since QuickSAT has a bias, and altest repot was 14.7... I would say about 15.1 =P
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hi everybody my first post on here! I was in the path of Rita and evacuated up I-45... and blah blah blah!! nobody gives a damn. Why do people do that stuff?


I don't think thats true. I have family in Groves, TX that had to evacuate from Rita and couldn't go home for almost 2 weeks.
I was actually in Groves this weekend and got to see some more of the devastation she caused. Kinda like us here in NOLA, still no where near completly re-couped from it.

I find that for the most part people on this site are kind. You have a few that are mean, but you can tell by there blogs most of them are just immature and childish!!!

I respect the opinions of 95% who post here, and look forward on a daily basis of reading and learing from them!!!!!!!!!
Quoting hurricanehanna:
It's getting sheared...
It's developing....
The moisture is wrapping around the center...
It's going poof...

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Time for a drink and hunt for a crystal ball.


Yeah there are two camps that have clearly risen, its getting a little annoying but it happens so often especially with a weak developing system.
People, the storm is obviously feeling the effects of shear, or it would be a TD/TS already. And just look at it on satellite images, the shear is obvious.

I'm not saying that this means "stick a fork in it, its done" or anything absurd like that. But anyone who says shear is light and not affecting the storm, well, that's just wishcasting.
1028. Patrap
18 Z Dynamic Model Suite

Wilma had a Huge Eye.. LOL

Quoting chevycanes:

i did.

read my post #995 for a response to that.

wrong as long as theres a anticyclone its ok but if it completely goes away which it will not it will have no problem
I'm afraid 2009 will be remembered as YEAR OF THE SHEAR. zzzzz next... Maybe we can get a TS out of one of these stalled fronts.
Quoting lordhuracan01:
30TH Aniversary of a big tragedy

Today we remember the landing of one the most dangerous huracane that hit the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1979; was the huracane DAVID.

it took a lot of lives, destroyed hundred of homes and changed the life many Dominican

Em midst of this chaos I was born

YES TODAY IS MY BIRTHDAY.





Happy birthday, that cane brought epic surf to the south coast of PR as told by my parents and uncles
1033. IKE
Quoting Relix:


So Ike... RIP for the 3rd time since Saturday? =P. It's not gonna get sheared to death at this point.


3rd time? I said next the other morning. That's only once.

And yes, it's getting sheared at a good clip right now.
Quoting btwntx08:

outlier throw that away for now
agreed.
i live in broward out west. at at 7 am winds were abound 115-120. lost my patio and tv
Quoting A4Guy:


Wilma made landfall in southWEST FL as a Cat 3 - however, it was widely reported that the east cost - especially Miami-Dade adn Broward counties only recevied Cat 1 winds. The damage seen in those counties - especially Broward - was not commensurate with a Cat 1 storm. Katrina was a Cat 1 storm when it moved through here, and didn't do a third of what Wilma did (though Katrina was just forming...vs. Wilma having a ton of angular momentum built up from being such a powerful storm earlier in its life).


so can anyone confirm what the highest winds in wilma were in northern broward? im 13 miles from the beach in pompano beach
1037. amd
Jimena's actual pressure is slightly higher than the estimated surface pressure at flight level, but make no mistake, Jimena is absolutely strengthening. Pressure has fallen 5 mb in under two hours. New Vortex message here:

000
URPN12 KNHC 312004
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP132009
A. 31/19:18:30Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
109 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2504 m
D. 125 kt
E. 196 deg 5 nm
F. 285 deg 118 kt
G. 199 deg 5 nm
H. 931 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 20 C / 3024 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12

N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0113E JIMENA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 149 KT NE QUAD 19:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WND 132 KTS NE QUAD 19:20:20 Z
;

1038. fire635
Quoting markymark1973:
And so the shear starts to rip 94L apart. Anticyclone sure worked out. EURO nailed another one. The latest run shows it a fish as well.


I dont know what you're seeing, but Im not seeing a system ripped apart
1039. IKE
Quoting rwdobson:
People, the storm is obviously feeling the effects of shear, or it would be a TD/TS already. And just look at it on satellite images, the shear is obvious.

I'm not saying that this means "stick a fork in it, its done" or anything absurd like that. But anyone who says shear is light and not affecting the storm, well, that's just wishcasting.


I agree.

I always loop the visible and speed it up. Shear is hammering it right now.
1040. JLPR
Quoting serialteg:


Tomorrow.


aww well that sucks lol

we will have to keep speculating
Quoting Ameister12:
94L is heading in to some very heavy shear (30-50 kts).

Quoting Ameister12:
94L is heading in to some very heavy shear (30-50 kts).



My god what are you people smoking? Did you not read Dr. Masters Blog?
that is bad for us in Puerto Rico..
Quoting hurricanehanna:
It's getting sheared...
It's developing....
The moisture is wrapping around the center...
It's going poof...

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHH

Time for a drink and hunt for a crystal ball.


lol

Time for FOOD! and some monday night football in a bit :D

1044. A4Guy
Quoting markymark1973:
I'm afraid 2009 will be remembered as YEAR OF THE SHEAR. zzzzz next... Maybe we can get a TS out of one of these stalled fronts.


Hasn't anyone noticed that this guy is making these posts just to get a reaction?

**POOF** #62
using a visible satellite pic to show convection serves no purpose.

looking at IR imagery, the convection is getting sheared off to the east right at 53W. convection is not advancing past that there.

it has the classic appearance of a sheared system.
If we in Miami get any tropical activity, I will be outside reporting and posting it on this blog (sustained wind, gust, rain rate, temperatures, etc...), I will also be video tapping it and i will be posting it on the blog as well.
Hurricane WILMA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS
AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 AM EDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED JUST
INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTH OF EVERGLADES CITY FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH AND A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EYEWALL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE
RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE
RAPIDLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA
IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES. A WIND GUST TO 95 MPH WAS REPORTED AT EVERGLADES CITY AND A
GUST TO 75 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NAPLES FLORIDA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY... AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WESTERN CUBA MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH



WILMA WAS A CAT 3 NOT A 1
Remem
Quoting btwntx08:

outlier throw that away for now

CMC is showing it also. Don't forget EURO was the only model that nailed Bill to begin with. It showed a recurve before all other global models. It was the only outlier for Mr. Bill from the get go.
1049. SykKid
Quoting btwntx08:

correct


We'll see about that
That is the best live webcam shot I have...
Quoting BayouBorn1965:


Biloxi resident here! Do you think that another storm will help us get back on our feet? Our home insurance is more than our principal and interest. Our utilities have gone up. And now the Mississippi Development Authority says that they made a mistake in giving us a grant and they want their money back. I said I would never move . . . . but never say never!


hi bayouborn,
the last two sentences were sarcastic, i lost the post i was responding to. he/she were claiming how good for the economy a big hit was. i agree with you, i have never wanted to move from this area, but now can see how it might happen.
im glad for our quiet season to this point, hope yalls situation does not degrade any further!
LordHuracano01

Thanks for the history lesson-and happy birthday

Quoting JLPR:


aww well that sucks lol

we will have to keep speculating


Look for the buoys while I go make myself something to eat :D

Looks like two competing low-level centers to me. The small one underneath the cluster to the west of the main blob.
1055. Patrap
Quoting kingzfan104:


so can anyone confirm what the highest winds in wilma were in northern broward? im 13 miles from the beach in pompano beach


South Palm Beach County Here..

1057. A4Guy
If you look at the NHC report from Wilma, you can find the nearest location reporting winds (Probably Pompano airport).
Quoting caneluver:


My god what are you people smoking? Did you not read Dr. Masters Blog?

he's wrong, it happens.

Ships was showing favorable shear, not the cimss map or the euro model.
Quoting A4Guy:


Hasn't anyone noticed that this guy is making these posts just to get a reaction?

**POOF** #62

me too markymark ur on the list
The vapor loop shows that Jimena has easily digested a slot of dry air, probably with a boost from neighboring Kevin which is fallng apart.
1061. divdog
Quoting IKE:


I agree.

I always loop the visible and speed it up. Shear is hammering it right now.
I'll still go with Dr. Masters and his expertise.
Quoting serialteg:


Look for the buoys while I go make myself something to eat :D


please bring me a drink while you're at it - make it gin....this is killin' me. :)
WTPZ33 KNHC 312033
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...JIMENA ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND
NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting tmangray:
Part of the problem with 94L may also be its passage over the cooler wake of Bill.


If it heads poleward, maybe, otherwise no.

Oceanic Heat Content
Quoting chevycanes:

he's wrong, it happens.

Ships was showing favorable shear, not the cimss map or the euro model.


Guess NHC is wrong also... Sorry peeps but I will stick with the experts and not you wanna be mets
1066. stormno
ike whoever cant see that shear is ripping it apart does not no anything about wate vapor loops and surface maps it clearly shows 94 l is in big trouble may not even be here tomorrow...like i said stick a fork in it ...Stormno
1067. Patrap
Southerly Shear as we head into the Low Angle afternoon Viz Images

1068. fmbill
18z NAM 60hours

At least the "Caribbean bound" quotes are gone.
hay i'm a lurker but learn a lot from all of ya'll this is what i see. the ull to west of 94l is filling in, the ull to the north of 94l is pulling away..time will only tell..just my take..
Quoting Relix:


Since QuickSAT has a bias, and altest repot was 14.7... I would say about 15.1 =P
that is bad for us in Puerto Rico..
1072. jipmg
Looks like we now have a CATEGORY 5 headed towards Baja..
Quoting stormno:
ike whoever cant see that shear is ripping it apart does not no anything about wate vapor loops and surface maps it clearly shows 94 l is in big trouble may not even be here tomorrow...like i said stick a fork in it ...Stormno



HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA LMFAO
1075. Grothar
NOAA Hurricane Hunters estimated Wilma had sustained winds of around 120-mph when the eye crossed the southwest Florida coast. The highest sustained wind measured at an official observing site was 92-mph (15-min average) from a South Florida Water observation site. Numerous official reporting sites measured peak gusts in the 100 to 115-mph range throughout southwest and southeast Florida. Unofficially, several measurements of intense winds were noted - including a gust of 125-mph at the Collier County Emergency Operations Center, and a gust of 135-mph by storm chaser Mark Sudduth who was in Everglades City were the center crossed the coast of the mainland. Below is a brief list of the highest winds (official & unofficial ) measured during Hurricane Wilma's passage across south Florida (Tropical Cyclone Report - Pasch,Blake,Cobb, and Roberts 1/12/2006)
Marco Island 135-mph gust.
Everglades City -Mark Suddath HLP Tower 135-mph gust.
Dry Tortugas Nat'l Park 133-mph gust.
Collier County EOC 125-mph gust.
Fowey Rocks (FWYF1) 123-mph gust.
Pompano Beach 120-mph gust.
W Boynton Beach (KFLBOYNT4) 90-mph winds/gust - 118-mph.
Weston (FCMP Tower T1)89-mph winds/gust 106-mph.
Naples Pier (NPSF1,NOS) 84-mph winds/gust - 102-mph
Opa Locka (KOPF) 85-mph winds/gust - 105-mph.
West Palm Beach (KPBI) 82-mph winds/gust - 101-mph.
Key West (KEYW) 71-mph winds/gust - 82-mph.

However, there were reports of higher unofficial gusts

Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Jimena Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop

IF you can check the Trop Forecast Points Box CycloneOZ,..

Id consider the fact if she Stays on Trend and guidance,your going to be very Near or In the right front Quad.

I advise EXTREME caution and to stay indoors for this one.



I brought the Cat V suit. I intend to use it as it was designed.

Lots of concrete structures in Cabo...just like in Bermuda. The problem is going to be flying debris...and maybe flooding. My suit can handle both. I'm going out in it...no matter how bad this little buzz saw is...
can someone tell me how strong the models are forecasting 94l to get eventually? thank you. please put it in terms of how someone who isnt a weather genius would understand. tia
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 312034
TCDEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR
MISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT
AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
EYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF
CATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS...PRIMARILY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
INFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

AFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MOTION IS
BACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...PREVIOUSLY
WESTERN OUTLIERS...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER THE U.K. AND
ECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.

NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS
WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED...NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...AND
DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. IN
FACT...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED. MOREOVER...TRACK FORECAST
ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME
FRAME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W 135 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W 130 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W 115 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W 30 KT...INLAND
the 5:oo is out..ITS LIKE A "ANDREW"
While I think 94L will develop, it wont strenghten that much until it gets to the Bahamas. Right now I would say TOPS a catagory 1 hurricane. But We need a depression to form first so we can feed that into the models.
Looks like 94L will survive the diurnal cycle. A big + when looking at qualifications.
Quoting serialteg:


Happy birthday, that cane brought epic surf to the south coast of PR as told by my parents and uncles


1083. JLPR
very well not much to discuss for the moment

im out till later tonight
Question: Is Cantore here? and if so...where exactly?

Thanks to the person who knows...
Quoting CycloneOz:
That is the best live webcam shot I have...


It is blank for me at this time
wow jimena is now at 155 mph 1 mph more and its a cat 5 and pressure at 931 mb
MY PERCENTAGES!!!!!

Based on the latest models

Eastern U.S.A coast: 91%

Out-to-sea: 9%
1088. P451
Those who feel this is a well organized system that should be named TS Erika soon - I just have to disagree.

There is a very broad circulation with the system and a very broad and elongated circulation center that is roughly between the two areas of convection. If you look hard enough you can see the lower level grey swirl taking place west of the larger area of convection. The Eastern side of this rotation does pass under and through the large area of convection however the center of this low level circulation is not under the convection itself.

There is also a lot of southerly shear apparent and you can easily see that with the TStorm tops being ripped northward. Note the black streamers leaving the convection, most evident on the western area of convection.

While I feel this system has promise I don't feel it is all that well organized and don't expect any rapid intensification until it becomes more organized. I can see why the 2PM TWO stated that it's in a marginal environment.

ShortWave Imagery Loop:



My uneducated analysis on what I see in that loop:



1089. Patrap
Quoting CycloneOz:


I brought the Cat V suit. I intend to use it as it was designed.

Lots of concrete structures in Cabo...just like in Bermuda. The problem is going to be flying debris...and maybe flooding. My suit can handle both. I'm going out in it...no matter how bad this little buzz saw is...


I'll Light a Candle for ya Here in New Orleans at St. Louis Cathedral.

I Have a event there tonight Oz.
Be safe.
Take no undue risk .
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009>>>>

I love their time stamp seeing as it's just 1:41 PM PDT right now.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It is blank for me at this time


In order to see the webcam, you have to download the abacast.com plugin.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


South Palm Beach County Here..


Yep, Boca Raton was one of the hardest hit areas and some say that the east coast was worst than the west coast.Boca Raton airport recorded a wind gust over 120mph sometime around 7-8am.
Quoting jipmg:
Looks like we now have a CATEGORY 5 headed towards Baja..


almost, at least based on NHC data.
Quoting Patrap:


I'll Light a Candle for ya Here in New Orleans at St. Louis Cathedral.

I Have a event there tonight Oz.
Be safe.
Take no undue risk .


Thanks Pat...indeed...no undue risk.
1095. jipmg
Quoting BrockBerlin:


almost, at least based on NHC data.


yea this site has a 5 on jimena, but its actually 155mph winds LOL
1096. Relix
Quoting farhaonhebrew:
that is bad for us in Puerto Rico..


Should pass north of us honestly. We might feel some rains and gusts, that's about it. Or it could be a darn sunny day.
Quoting canesrule1:
MY PERCENTAGES!!!!!

Based on the latest models

Eastern U.S.A coast: 91%

Out-to-sea: 9%


I don't agree with you much, but that sounds about right.
Hello friends, I'll be uptdating my blog, I have live cameras adn weather stations! it is raining right now in cabo san lucas.
Quoting P451:
Those who feel this is a well organized system that should be named TS Erika soon - I just have to disagree.

There is a very broad circulation with the system and a very broad and elongated circulation center that is roughly between the two areas of convection. If you look hard enough you can see the lower level grey swirl taking place west of the larger area of convection. The Eastern side of this rotation does pass under and through the large area of convection however the center of this low level circulation is not under the convection itself.

There is also a lot of southerly shear apparent and you can easily see that with the TStorm tops being ripped northward. Note the black streamers leaving the convection, most evident on the western area of convection.

While I feel this system has promise I don't feel it is all that well organized and don't expect any rapid intensification until it becomes more organized. I can see why the 2PM TWO stated that it's in a marginal environment.

ShortWave Imagery Loop:



My uneducated analysis on what I see in that loop:



Good description. Thats why it will keep heading W,WNW.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Question: Is Cantore here? and if so...where exactly?

Thanks to the person who knows...
HE IS IN CABO..ON THE BEACH WEARING HIS BLACK T-SHIRT AND HAT, HOLDING A TREE
A note on shear...

The shear affecting 94L is not at the upper levels - as the anti-cyclone is in place overtop the low.

However, it appears that stronger easterly mid-level (700mb) flow has elongated the circulation a bit...and this is where the shear is being felt.
Can someone explain who JFV is again, I may have saw him on last year, I take it he lives in Miami and panics easily?
Quoting canesrule1:
Based on the latest models


fail.

are you really a PhD in meteorology, or were you kidding the other day?

1107. IKE
Quoting stormno:
ike whoever cant see that shear is ripping it apart does not no anything about wate vapor loops and surface maps it clearly shows 94 l is in big trouble may not even be here tomorrow...like i said stick a fork in it ...Stormno


I'm not saying it's dead, but yeah...it's getting sheared.
1108. FLdewey
You know the season is slow when so many are getting so very excited over this. ;-)
Quoting Relix:


Should pass north of us honestly. We might feel some rains and gusts, that's about it. Or it could be a darn sunny day.
It is anticipated to be somewhere around 23N to around 26N.
HOWEVER THERE IS NO
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE

per the NHC. let's see what they say at 8PM.

there is clearly shear affecting the whole west side of the system.

the anticyclone is tiny and not very big at all. like i stated earlier, if you want to see what a nice anticyclone looks like, looks just east of 40W. notice how much bigger and expansive it is? notice how big of an area around that one has 5-10 kts of shear while the one located by 94L has crazy amounts of shear affecting the NW and western parts of it?
Quoting serialteg:


fail.

are you really a PhD in meteorology, or were you kidding the other day?


Is that a serious question??
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
21:00 PM UTC August 31 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: A Hurricane Warning Remains In Force

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (931 hPa) located at 18.5N 109.2W or 265 NM south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 135 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
120 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
==========================
A HURRICANE WARNING has been issued for southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula from Bahaia Magdalena southward on the west coast..and from San Evaristo southward on the east coast

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for Baja California north of Bahia Magdelena on the west coast to Punta Abreojos and north of San Evaristo to Mulege on the east coast

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.6N 110.1W - 130 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.6N 111.1W - 125 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 25.5N 112.2W - 85 kts (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.8N 112.7W - 50 kts (Overland TS)

---
never did understand why 135 knots is not officially a Category 5
1113. jipmg
Its interesting.. Jimena looks nothing like a CAT 5 on satellite.. they usually have that monstrously clear eye and an amazing outflow.. Jimena looks to me like a strong 3..

I want to imagine what wilma was when it was at its peak.. I know the hunters werent in it.. Im sure it was easily well above 175MPH
Quoting jbplefty:


Not according to the NHC it was a Cat 1 when it hit Fla


Wrong......
When Wilma made landfall on the West Coast of Florida at Cape Romano winds were estimated at 105kts (cat 3)......
Quoting FLdewey:
You know the season is slow when so many are getting so very excited over this. ;-)


Yeah and there is a monster in the EPAC
I agree with the current dis-organized state but, if you look closely, spiral banding is increasing and the overall structure is improving slowly. Plus overcoming diurnal hurdle. Shear is supposed to let up tomorrow, we'll see.

Quoting BrockBerlin:


Is that a serious question??


Well, he did say he was, but I thought he was kidding. You never know, it's the Internet...
.STORM INFORMATION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS BEING
ACTIVELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST NORTHWEST IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO A DEPRESSION
OR NAMED STORM...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS /ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO/...AND ROUGH SEAS. THEREFORE...IT IS
IMPERATIVE THAT INTERESTS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN ITS
POSITION AND INTENSITY.
1120. SykKid
Quoting canesrule1:
MY PERCENTAGES!!!!!

Based on the latest models

Eastern U.S.A coast: 91%

Out-to-sea: 9%


Garbage. This thing is going to get torn apart by shear.
Quoting serialteg:


fail.

are you really a PhD in meteorology, or were you kidding the other day?


i really hope he didn't try to say that.

he didn't even know if higher pressures or lower pressures meant if a high was getting stronger or not. he had to ask.

if you have to ask if higher pressures mean a stronger high then you don't even know the basics of weather.
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Wrong......
When Wilma made landfall on the West Coast of Florida at Cape Romano winds were estimated at 105kts (cat 3)......

And it was actaully still strengthening over land and came off the east coast with 125mph winds I think due to Lake Okee,Evergaldes and the thin peninsula.
Quoting serialteg:


Well, he did say he was, but I thought he was kidding. You never know, it's the Internet...
I do know it is the internet but why would I be kidding?
1124. fire635
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I agree with the current dis-organized state but, if you look closely, spiral banding is increasing and the overall structure is improving slowly. Plus overcoming diurnal hurdle. Shear is supposed to let up tomorrow, we'll see.



I Agree... I see a system that is trying to reorganize... trying to bring in the convection on both sides of the center. This is certainly not going to be gone when we wake up in the morning as Stormno is eluding
What if the cat V suit and you become said flying debris?
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Is that a serious question??


Ummmm....there is now way this cat has a phd in meterology
Quoting BrockBerlin:
he lives in Miami and panics easily?


It seems there are many in this same tag... :P
1128. lennit
Ok here is what models are telling us.. IF 94L gets stronger sooner its recurve we go .. the shallower it it is the more west.. thats why CMC and now EMCWF recurve them as they make them strong systems.GFS and NOGAPS and earlier ECMWF runs have them as shallow systems.. the deep layer ridge is to far NE right now to cause it to keep moving W to WNW as a STRONG storm.. there is no deep layered ridges forcasted near the east coast of the US.as of now..
Quoting serialteg:


It seems there are many in this same tag... :P
Connie, for sure, I never have panicked, I was actually excited for Andrew.
This is the most attention I've seen paid to the Pacific in... forever. Andres-no, Blanca-no, Carlos-no, Dolores-no, Enrique-no, Felicia-kinda, Guillermo-no, Hilda-no, Ignacio-no. I saw Felicia, and that was it.

I can go through last year, too. Anyway, kind of glad it's finally getting its due. It does have the most storms per square mile per year... Also, people in Baja California, get ready for a doozy.
Back for a bit.

Well, shear is doing a number on 94L which makes it all the less likely that it will be classified as a TD any time soon.

Buoy 41101 that is moored at 14.6N 56.2W last had 10 knots of wind from the NNE and a falling pressure of 1008.5.

Not a whole lot going on out there, for sure.

Maybe if shear strips away some more of the convection we will see what is at the surface. Looking pretty sick right now but it has come back from a poor presentation in the past.

I see coordinates of 15.6 and 14.6 N

Anyone know which it is ??. Navy has the higher latitude and WU had 15.6 but now changed to 14.6

As if we didn't have enough confusion with this system LOL
So Baja gets the "monster cane" and what do we get in the eastern CONUS? A sheared turkey.
Quoting bluewaterblues:


Ummmm....there is now way this cat has a phd in meterology
I am in no mood, to fight.
1134. IKE
Wasn't it Karen, a few years ago, in the Atlantic, that was suppose to turn into a significant cane that wound up getting undressed? That's what it looks like is happening to 94L right now.
1135. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Hurricane Wilma Was Cat 3 Over Florida..




No one who was living here in North Broward at the time would disagree with you on that one. Some weather reporters told us not to bother with the shutters. Boy were we surprised.
Quoting bluewaterblues:


Ummmm....there is now way this cat has a phd in meterology


I think you interpreted my answer in the exact opposite way.
Quoting canesrule1:
Connie, for sure, I never have panicked, I was actually excited for Andrew.


Who's Connie? I'm Carlos :P

Well, my definition of panicked = excited in this case
Miami International 67 mph at 830 AM 92 mph at 752 and 756AM
Fort Lauderdale 70 mph at 811 AM 99 mph at 830 AM
Palm Beach International 82 mph at 910 AM 101 mph at 914 AM
Pompano Beach* 83 mph at 840 AM 98 mph at 818 and 837 AM
Naples* 61 mph at 807 AM 82 mph at 802 AM
Opa Locka* 85 mph at 816 AM 105 mph at 813 AM
Tamiami* 58 mph at 733 AM 83 mph at 738 AM
Fowey Rocks**
(8 miles SE of Key Biscayne) 85 mph at 752 AM 123 mph at 843 AM
WFO Miami (FIU Campus)
(See Figure 6; add 4 knots
for pin drag) 66 mph 746 AM 104 mph at 747 AM
L006***
(South end of
Lake Okeechobee) 103 mph at 1030 AM 112 mph at 11 AM

these are from noaa.

1st is the sustained wind and the 2nd is the highest recorded gust for each location.

*'s indicate instrument failure.
1139. stormno
canesrule if you have a degree in meteorology obama is white lmmfoa..
1140. IKE
Quoting bingcrosby:
So Baja gets the "monster cane" and what do we get in the eastern CONUS? A sheared turkey.


LOL...gobble, gobble!
banding on 94l is not that good. A lot of what you see is not banding....I see one main band.
1142. jipmg
Quoting Grothar:


No one who was living here in North Broward at the time would disagree with you on that one. Some weather reporters told us not to bother with the shutters. Boy were we surprised.


I thought wilma was downgraded to a CAT 2 over FLA..
Quoting SykKid:


Garbage. This thing is going to get torn apart by shear.
No its not
my apologies...I thought Brockberlin was claiming to have a phd in meteorology.The comment was not directed to you in any way
Quoting serialteg:


Who's Connie? I'm Carlos :P

Well, my definition of panicked = excited in this case
lol, connie1976, a girl that i was panics, and why would u mean panicked=excited, i rarely panic unless there is an F-5 tornado coming my way.
Quoting P451:
Those who feel this is a well organized system that should be named TS Erika soon - I just have to disagree.

There is a very broad circulation with the system and a very broad and elongated circulation center that is roughly between the two areas of convection. If you look hard enough you can see the lower level grey swirl taking place west of the larger area of convection. The Eastern side of this rotation does pass under and through the large area of convection however the center of this low level circulation is not under the convection itself.

There is also a lot of southerly shear apparent and you can easily see that with the TStorm tops being ripped northward. Note the black streamers leaving the convection, most evident on the western area of convection.

While I feel this system has promise I don't feel it is all that well organized and don't expect any rapid intensification until it becomes more organized. I can see why the 2PM TWO stated that it's in a marginal environment.

ShortWave Imagery Loop:



My uneducated analysis on what I see in that loop:





That's a good observation but you must remember that the last tropical system we had, had a circulation that was completely removed from it's convection and was still classified a storm.

This could be no different...
So Baja gets the "monster cane" and what do we get in the eastern CONUS? A sheared turkey.

Fairly typical for an El Nino year. Hawaii has seen more activity, also classic.
Quoting jipmg:


I thought wilma was downgraded to a CAT 2 over FLA..


She made landfall over the SW coast as a cat 3, when she got over West Palm Beach she was a cat 2...though it didn't really matter considering at that point the eye was over us, not the strongest winds.
Quoting BrockBerlin:


I think you interpreted my answer in the exact opposite way.
i ignored him and moved on...
Quoting Relix:


Should pass north of us honestly. We might feel some rains and gusts, that's about it. Or it could be a darn sunny day.


I agree. That was happened with Bill and Ana. Definitively, Puerto Rico is blessed. 94L will pass, if so, over 200-300 miles from our north coasts. You will see. Just high clouds and extreme hot days...
Forgot to put the source of the bulletin. It's the NWS in San Juan. Do you think they're jumping the gun a little bit?
1152. GoofOff
For those of you discussing the size of a hurricane, if you pull up Francis in 2004, you will find that it covered almost the entire state of Florida. Not hurricane winds, but total size in respect to bands. We had the eye go over us and it was huge. Some thought the storm was gone. They learned better fairly soon.
Quoting largeeyes:
What if the cat V suit and you become said flying debris?


WTH is a CATV suit? I want one...
1154. Grothar


What did Yogi Berra say, folks???
I am in no mood, to fight.

Let me ask you something if you do have a PhD then why are you not working for a big oil company or corporation or a broadcast Meteorologist...and when it was clear that Bill was going no where near Florida you was still saying it was and giving percentages on it....any person with a PhD in weather would know better than that...not saying you dont have it but if you do you not using it to its full potential
This blog is hilarious. From "It looks impressive, and a TD is likely soon!" this morning, to now "the system is disorganized and being sheared, and is not likely to be TD anytime soon". Too funny how quickly this blog changes it's feelings.
Quoting palmasdelrio:
Forgot to put the source of the bulletin. It's the NWS in San Juan. Do you think they're jumping the gun a little bit?
Of course they do.
On Wednesday we will who will have to put up the shutters, lol.
A major outer band is coming in...

gots to go work!

later...
Quoting stormno:
canesrule if you have a degree in meteorology obama is white lmmfoa..


If your going to use that comparison then I guess he is halfway finished with his degree.
Quoting JupiterFL:


If your going to use that comparison then I guess he is halfway finished with his degree.


lol, stole my answer
1162. jipmg
Quoting Grothar:


What did Yogi Berra say, folks???


GFS turns it into a hurricane later on, but curves it out to sea
1163. GatorWX
I am changing my avatar image to the old school UF logo since there are now three or four users with identical avatars featuring the UF gator head. Anyone have any idea how to go about doing that? I had a heck of a time getting an image as my pic in the first place. Any ideas or clues would be greatly appreciated, TIA.
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

...JIMENA ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND
NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST OR ABOUT
305 MILES...495 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 109.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting CycloneOz:
A major outer band is coming in...

gots to go work!

later...


Have fun out there, and be careful!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
21:00 PM UTC August 31 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: A Hurricane Warning Remains In Force

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (931 hPa) located at 18.5N 109.2W or 265 NM south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 135 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
40 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
120 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
==========================
A HURRICANE WARNING has been issued for southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula from Bahaia Magdalena southward on the west coast..and from San Evaristo southward on the east coast

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for Baja California north of Bahia Magdelena on the west coast to Punta Abreojos and north of San Evaristo to Mulege on the east coast

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.6N 110.1W - 130 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.6N 111.1W - 125 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 25.5N 112.2W - 85 kts (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.8N 112.7W - 50 kts (Overland TS)

---
never did understand why 135 knots is not officially a Category 5
Link

According to the speed conversion, Jimena qualifies as a borderline cat 4/5 cane. She's not making landfall as a cat 1. Hope they're prepared.
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I am in no mood, to fight.

Let me ask you something if you do have a PhD then why are you not working for a big oil company or corporation or a broadcast Meteorologist...and when it was clear that Bill was going no where near Florida you was still saying it was and giving percentages on it....any person with a PhD in weather would know better than that...not saying you dont have it but if you do you not using it to its full potential
It is called being retired, lol...and btw what i meant by the Bill thing coming towards Florida was based utterly on my gut feeling.
1169. Grothar
Quoting jipmg:


GFS turns it into a hurricane later on, but curves it out to sea


Good news!
1170. Wariac
TD not TD....TD not TD..this blog can drive anyone crazy..LOL!!!!
Quoting JupiterFL:


If your going to use that comparison then I guess he is halfway finished with his degree.
stormno is on my ignore list and is a troll, so please do not quote him.
Quoting AllStar17:
This blog is hilarious. From "It looks impressive, and a TD is likely soon!" this morning, to now "the system is disorganized and being sheared, and is not likely to be TD anytime soon". Too funny how quickly this blog changes it's feelings.


They all want it to be the next cat five and STAT.

Now that work is done, I've actually had some time to look at everything and it doesn't look to bad, IMO. A little squashed and sheared, yes, core structure is improving though. If shear lets up tomorrow as forecast, 94L could be a biggie as the circulation is very large.
Quoting Grothar:


What did Yogi Berra say, folks???

"It's pretty far, but it don't seem like it" ?
1174. mkmand
931 mb pressure with Jimena !!! Whao!!!
Quoting cdnbananabelt:
Link

According to the speed conversion, Jimena qualifies as a borderline cat 4/5 cane. She's not making landfall as a cat 1. Hope they're prepared.


They are already saying she will make landfall as a Cat 2 at least...maybe higher.
Quoting Grothar:


What did Yogi Berra say, folks???

I am not sure what he said, but, those 2 waves ready to come off of Africa look REAL MEAN!! I would not be suprised to see one or both of them become TD's!
Quoting canesrule1:
excuse me? Um have you not checked the 18z models?!?! all of them except 4 or 5 unreliable models have it curving to sea, and did you not notice that I wrote the percentages are based on the latest models not my opinion, why would you question my degree? huh?


No, I haven't checked the models. I don't trust them. To me anyone who tries to judge storms by the models can, and probably will, be set up for a surprise.

Actually whenever I see a post about models, I skip it. It's better when the thing is closer, but I use it "just for recreational purposes".

To me, basing where this TROPICAL WAVE is going to hit when it's thousands of miles from where you say it's going to hit is the reason I started my reply with FAIL.

So you ARE a Ph.D. Meteorologist? Hmm...
Quoting Grothar:


What did Yogi Berra say, folks???


"This is like deja vu all over again."
It is called being retired, lol...and btw what i meant by the Bill thing coming towards Florida was based utterly on my gut feeling

Well Einstein knew 100 percent that the theory of Relativity was true but almost didn't prove it because he couldn't finialize the math and some other guy almost stole the idea from him...the idea is in science a gut feeling means nothing unless you have hard prove you have nothing...it is very dangerous to be a scientist and let your gut feeling play a role especially when they can potentially have panicked people to contend with
NEW BLOG
Pressure dropping rapidly, and her winds are at 155.49 (yeah!) mph - cat 5, folks!
cmon new blog
Quoting canesrule1:
stormno is on my ignore list and is a troll, so please do not quote him.


NO
Visible of 94L looks the best I have seen since early am. The band the Doc pointed out earlier looks much more impressive on latest visible.
1185. SykKid
Quoting Hurricane009:
No its not


It looks terrible right now and shear is only going to get worse.
Quoting mkmand:
931 mb pressure with Jimena !!! Whao!!!
Its closing in on Hurricane Wilma's record
Quoting Grothar:


What did Yogi Berra say, folks???

"Always go to other people's funerals otherwise they won't come to yours"
1188. GatorWX
Every time I try to upload the image I want to use as my new avatar I get an error message: "Not submitting because no changes were made to the album." Anyone know what I am doing wrong?? I've added a few other images in the past and had no problems at all. I put the file I'm going to use in, didn't add any comments in the "special instructions" box and hit the "send all to photo approval queue" button and I just keep getting the error. What type of changes must I make? Please, if anyone could help I would truly appreciate it. Thankyou!
1189. stormno
canesrule they should ban you for life for making a statement like that son...you are a pathological lier boy and you should be reprimanded for it...but the moderators are for from being fair on here ...enough said...Stormno
would a meteorologist ask this?

39. canesrule1 11:42 AM EDT on August 18, 2009
the lower the pressure of the high is the stronger it is or vice-versa?
Quoting chevycanes:
would a meteorologist ask this?

39. canesrule1 11:42 AM EDT on August 18, 2009
the lower the pressure of the high is the stronger it is or vice-versa?


hehe owned
Howdy yall. Does anyone know how populated Baja CA is. Have they suggested evacuation. No matter what happens with 94, it appears that Baja is in for some very severe weather and a very limited area to evacuate to without significant lead time.
1193. usa777
JMHO But it looks to me like the west side of 94L is starting to feel the effects of the shear. You can clearly see the west side getting shredded. Once again JMHO.
1194. Fshhead
Quoting dolphingalrules:
the 5:oo is out..ITS LIKE A "ANDREW"



WOW! Man calm down some, your gonna scare people half to death with a comment like that.
The thing has not even formed yet. LOL
Hello folks

HadesGodWyvern never did understand why 135 knots is not officially a Category 5
155 mph does seem catastrophic - Someone was asking about you earlier today. Was missing your updates. (I referred them to your blog)

GeorgefromLosCabos thanks for sharing will be checking back on your blog often

CycloneOz Thanks for bringing XtremeHurricanes to us. Stay safe

This is a bit north of the Jimena path, but here is a webcam at the at the K39 area located in Northern Baja, Mexico (about an hour south of San Diego)
Could Kevin go Fujiwara around Jimena?

I know i know. I'm not an expert. The models for Kevin look like a giant spider... yet... it is a serious question.

Weatheromancer
hfx, ns, canada
1197. P451
NEW BLOG
HURRICANE JIMENA IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WINDS OVER 155 MPH..WOW..
I'm confuse.stupid question: if Jimena is a possible CAT4/5, why will its force go down to a CAT1 or 2 when it makes landfall? why not stay as a CAT 4?
The tropics page says that Jimena has 155 mph winds. So does this mean that Jimena is a Cat 5 or a Cat 4?
Quoting hurristat:
The tropics page says that Jimena has 155 mph winds. So does this mean that Jimena is a Cat 5 or a Cat 4?
156 is the first # of speed of a cat 5. 155 or greater. This is confusing.
1205. jbryant
Quoting GatorWX:
I am changing my avatar image to the old school UF logo since there are now three or four users with identical avatars featuring the UF gator head. Anyone have any idea how to go about doing that? I had a heck of a time getting an image as my pic in the first place. Any ideas or clues would be greatly appreciated, TIA.

Why dont you ask the Doctor?
Sorry for the newbie question, but how to you change barometric pressure from inches to mb? It's currently 29.68" at my house west of Orlando, but I'd like to know what it is in mb and be able to calculate that myself. TIA:)