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Hurricane tracks, changes in hurricane clustering, and other notes from Tucson

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:44 PM GMT on May 12, 2010

I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. This is the premier scientific conference on hurricanes, and is held only once every two years, so pretty much all of the world's greatest hurricane experts are here. Below are some quick snapshots of four of the talks I attended yesterday; I hope to more more snapshots each day this week.

Angela Colbert of the University of Miami/RSMAS showed how different weather and climate patterns affect the Azores-Bermuda High, and thus the tracks of Atlantic hurricanes. She divided storms into straight-moving storms that move straight west-northwest through the Caribbean, recurving landfalling hurricane that hit the east coast of the U.S., and recurving ocean storms that miss land. Roughly 1/3 of all hurricanes between 1950 - 2009 fell into each of these three categories. These proportions stayed pretty constant during La Niña and neutral years, but El Niño caused a weakening of the high, resulting in far fewer hurricanes hitting the U.S. East Coast. These storms instead recurved out to sea.

Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin separated all Atlantic storms from 1950 - 2007 into 4 clusters, based on genesis location. Two of the clusters were more northerly-forming storms that tended to be less tropical in nature--Gulf of Mexico storms, and storms off the U.S. East Coast that tended to recurve. The other two clusters were more southerly tropical-origin systems--ones that tended to form in the Caribbean, and storms that form near the Cape Verde Island region off the coast of Africa. The more tropical Cape Verde and Caribbean storms dominated major hurricane frequency by a factor of four. In mid-1980s, there was an abrupt shift to more of these more dangerous tropical type storms--ten years prior to the active hurricane period that began in 1995. It is unknown what caused this shift. The shift is unlikely to be a result of measurement error, since we had good satellite imagery then. Independent of any trends in frequency, this shift caused an increase in intensity metrics of Atlantic hurricanes. A doubling of these tropical systems has also occurred since 1950. Interestingly, there has been no change in the number of Gulf of Mexico storms, and a slight increase in storms forming off of the U.S. East Coast. Since slight changes in track can make a big difference in what SSTs and atmospheric environment a storm sees, there is a lot of natural "noise" in the system that will make it difficult to get a clear sense of when climate change is having a substantial impact on hurricane intensity.

Bin Wang of the University of Miami studied the global number of storm days from 1965 - 2008, which should be a less sensitive quantity to data problems than the number of storms or their intensity. Storm days were defined as any day when a tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or greater existed. However, there are still some data problems, as evidenced by a sharp drop in storm days observed in the North Indian Ocean beginning in 1978. Dr. Wang found that there was no global trend in storm days. The Atlantic was the only individual basin that showed an increase in storm days.

Greg Holland of NCAR looked at the distribution of the strongest hurricanes over time by using a mathematical description of the historical hurricane data. His analysis showed that during the period 1995 - 2008, we probably had about a 30% increase in Category 5 storms in the Atlantic, and an 18% increase in Category 4 hurricanes. Using a climate model, he predicted that by the years 2045 - 2055, we should see a 60% increase in Cat 5s, 32% increase in Cat 4s, and 16% increase in Cat 3s in the Atlantic.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Not much point looking at waves in the Atl this time of year as the most they do is head into South America.The ITCZ is just too far South.

Once we get close to June the SW Caribbean and the GOM are the only two areas worth watching and even in an active year like 2005 there were only two named systems in June. One was a 70 mph TS and the other a 40 mph system.
Quoting kmanislander:


We have had strong NE winds for two days due to high pressure in the Atl. and that has helped some but once the wind switches back to SE it will be unbearable without the cooling from the sea breeze. I can't wait for the positive MJO to show up in the latter part of May and bring some rain.

I know the feeling.
We are hoping that new moon into first quarter will give some relief. If the wave to the east holds together it should do that. NM on the 12th.. first Q on 20th.
May 12, 2010


May 12, 2009


May 12, 2005
I think the discussion about hurricane tracks was the most interesting. During the 20th century, prevailing storm tracks and lots of luck meant that Georgia had zero landfalling major hurricanes. During the 19th century, there were at least 7, and possibly an 8th. (Ossabaw Island/Savannah August 1881 is questionable Cat 2/3) Whether global warming or natural variation causes a change in hurricane tracks in the future, on the Georgia coast we are happy with things just as they are, thank you very much!
3 days left to join the Atlantic Season Contest :)

Atlantic Season Contest - Now Open
Quoting kmanislander:
Not much point looking at waves in the Atl this time of year as the most they do is head into South America.The ITCZ is just too far South.

Once we get close to June the SW Caribbean and the GOM are the only two areas worth watching and even in an active year like 2005 there were only two named systems in June. One was a 70 mph TS and the other a 40 mph system.


Good post kman...that's why I think not even a depression will form in the Atlantic in May. I think this season will be busy...but not til after the official season starts.
Quoting Skyepony:
Levi & Aussie ~ I was talking about 96S & 97S

95S & 97S are obviously different storms


Well I don't see a 96S on the navy site.

EDIT: Nevermind.

Quoting Skyepony:
See NOAA is renaming their 96S...97S. Same storm.

I said I thought we many see the NAVY rename their 97S..now that I was wrong about..
Im gonna pass on the contest and wait and see whats behind Door Number GOM come Late August.



509. xcool



Where is Hades?

South of the GOM or the new "Lake of Fire to be"

Quoting Skyepony:
Aussie~ 96S was never on the NAVY site. They skipped it. But that was the next #. It's why NOAA had 95S & 96S up for this pair.

Where is Hades?

This was on the Navy site.

Look at the date.
97S

Same invest.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good post kman...that's why I think not even a depression will form in the Atlantic in May. I think this season will be busy...but not til after the official season starts.


Given current and forecasted conditions I would not be surprised to see one TS and one TD before the 1st July with both coming from the SW or Western Caribbean. I do not believe we will see anything form in the GOM before the end of June. The SST there has been very cool due to numerous cold fronts coming down, sometimes two in a week, and shear typically remains high North of 23 degrees during May and June.
re post 457- I'd shave my head too if I thought it would make a difference
Quoting Ossqss:
3 days left to join the Atlantic Season Contest :)

Atlantic Season Contest - Now Open
I posted it on your blog.
Looking at Jeff's report from the Hurricane Conference, he reports Greg Holland's prediction of a 60% increase in activity over a period of years. Assuming the 'Climate Model' includes global warming, I was under the impression that at some point, the temperature rise would also increase shear, which would actually reduce the number of Hurricanes. Any thoughts out there?
Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna pass on the contest and wait and see whats behind Door Number GOM come Late August.





What? You don't have an opinion? Say it isn't so --- !
What? You don't have an opinion? Say it isn't so --- !


Not on futile things like predictions.

I never was a Miss Cleo fan.


I focus on Education and Preparation.

Its a Good thing Martha Says..

And Jeff Masters as well.

Is there a prize though?

I do like da Cracker Jack ya know..

94P went extratropical

Rocketboy had a good point about the conditions around the North Indian ocean are pretty insane, especially the Arabian Sea. Cyclones tend to form there between April and December, with peaks in May and November. Emanuel's Maximum potential hurricane intensity..
I still don't think it will happen in the GOM in May or June Pat LOL. The loop current is just a tongue of warm water in a limited area.
Quoting xcool:
The pump is being primed as the AMO continues to warm and is now reading a positive .478. To put that in perspective, this is the warmest April reading on record! Quite frankly this appears to be the hurricane season setup for the kind of winter we had. In other words, one that can produce the extreme season, and it may be that the already ramped up forecast I have had out may not be ramped up enough. But for now, the message stays as is. The latest 90-day SOI is up to 1.73... still not in Nina territory but most certainly no longer in the warm event.

It is interesting to note that the GFS is going right to the 11-year cycle/flipping nino analog as far as temps next week and the week beyond. The pattern of trying to slam a trough into the West, pumping ridges over the northern Plains and the Great Lakes, which then invites trough splits over the East and encourages them in the central Atlantic, all line up with a pump that primes itself for major ventilation over the tropical areas as well as much more warmth nationwide than has been indicated on the CFS. Interestingly enough, we do see some "disconnects" in the active hurricane season, where some are not as hot as others over the nation's midsection, and the active El Nino summers (for example 2004) can be cool. But there is a huge battle this year with the CFS and other models and other analogs, that favor the overall summer for the United States being hotter than last year. If one looks at even the current CFS, it looks like LAST SUMMER. But the heat is coming next week and beyond, centered over the northern and central Plains. Interestingly enough the current cold across the nation is not without its European bretheren. Snow has been falling into northern England... not Scotland but all the way to the Yorkshire Dales where it hit -5C. I guess afternoon tea will have to be extra hot there. By the way, one of the people I want Dr. Mann to take on in debate, Dr. Willie Soon, has been interviewed by Kirk Myers and this can be seen here.


by joe


Actually you're incorrect, according the NASArites, there have been two April's on record with higher AMO. [1878 and 1974]

Unless I'm missing something?
Quoting Ossqss:
3 days left to join the Atlantic Season Contest :)

Atlantic Season Contest - Now Open

Ok. I have put mine in.
Good night everyone! God bless!


Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab.

The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. We specialize in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which we obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops. These data have many applications for research, education, and state emergency response.
Quoting kmanislander:


Given current and forecasted conditions I would not be surprised to see one TS and one TD before the 1st July with both coming from the SW or Western Caribbean. I do not believe we will see anything form in the GOM before the end of June. The SST there has been very cool due to numerous cold fronts coming down, sometimes two in a week, and shear typically remains high North of 23 degrees during May and June.


Cool? What are you seeing?



nyhurricaneboy is right, weatherchat is seriously messed up---hacking or something is going on.
I have to run out for a bit so will sign off for now. May come back on in an hour or so for a bit but if not have a great evening all.
530. xcool
???
Plenty of TCHP in the GOM,..and the past 3 seasons have supported Invests before June 1,..

Ask the folks who got it bad flooding wise Last Memorial Weekend in Fla.


Or the archives here.

Quoting aquak9:
re post 457- I'd shave my head too if I thought it would make a difference


It would definitely make a difference with pictures, I am sure :)
Quoting Patrap:
What? You don't have an opinion? Say it isn't so --- !


Not on futile things like predictions.

I never was a Miss Cleo fan.


I focus on Education and Preparation.

Its a Good thing Martha Says..

And Jeff Masters as well.

Is there a prize though?

I do like da Cracker Jack ya know..



I can't say, but ????????

Preparedness is required, and not an option!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Cool? What are you seeing?





This

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
nyhurricaneboy is right, weatherchat is seriously messed up---hacking or something is going on.


I would offer that things are not right in many areas of networking. Could be the Rogue Sat item?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Actually you're incorrect, according the NASArites, there have been two April's on record with higher AMO. [1878 and 1974]

Unless I'm missing something?


I missed 1878, but you forgot there's a negative sign on 1974.
Quoting Patrap:
What? You don't have an opinion? Say it isn't so --- !


Not on futile things like predictions.

I never was a Miss Cleo fan.


I focus on Education and Preparation.

Its a Good thing Martha Says..

And Jeff Masters as well.

Is there a prize though?

I do like da Cracker Jack ya know..

i will sent ya a box if ya win
Quoting kmanislander:
I still don't think it will happen in the GOM in May or June Pat LOL. The loop current is just a tongue of warm water in a limited area.


Best check the 26C Isotherm before jumping out on dat limb,my friend.

Ya barbecuing soon ?,,or ya'll still too hot ?



TCHP is scaling up Daily as well.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i will sent ya a box if ya win


Make sure it has a Shear Map Decoder ring in the surprise KOTG
Quoting kmanislander:


This



Okay, I thought you were implying that it was below normal.
Quoting Patrap:


Best check the 26C Isotherm before jumping out on dat limb,my friend.

Ya barbecuing soon ?,,or ya'll still too hot ?





BBQ soon come. What about this ?

Quoting kmanislander:


This



That looks cold at first glance when talking about tropical development but remember the gulf is now solidly back up to normal and above normal in places, meaning that this isn't colder than usual anymore. May developments in the GOM are rare, but in June, especially the 2nd half of the month, SSTs will not be a limiting factor for getting a named storm in the gulf.
Quoting Patrap:


Make sure it has a Shear Map Decoder ring in the surprise KOTG

LOL!! Good one. hehehehh
One dont need a Big swath in the early going..just a impulse like last Memorial weekend.
Check the archives for the same period last May,

Shameless Portlight Blurb there as well.


Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Last Updated: 9:44 AM CDT on May 12, 2010


Disturbance 91L more organized, but headed out to sea

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:18 AM CDT on May 28, 2009
An area of disturbed weather (91L), located about 250 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity this morning. QuikSCAT imagery from last night revealed a closed surface circulation, but top winds of only 20 - 25 mph.

The disturbance is over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream (25%uFFFDC) and has wind shear of 10 - 15 knots over it, and these conditions are marginally favorable for some slow development to occur until this evening, when the system will begin moving over waters too cold to support tropical cyclone development. The disturbance will track northeastward at 15 mph today, and and is not a threat to any land areas. In a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 8am EDT this morning, NHC gave 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.

Portlight.org offering relief to Florida flood victims
Tropical disturbance 90L dropped as much as two feet of rain over Northeastern Florida last week, causing severe flooding. In Volusia County, at least 1500 homes were damaged by the flooding, and many of these were in low-income housing projects where the residents did not have flood insurance. Portlight Strategies, Inc., is now working to assist in this area by providing durable medical equipment to the disabled, elderly, or injured that have lost equipment due to the flooding. Equipment will also be provided to local shelters and other organizations working with flood victims. To help out, visit the Portlight disaster relief blog..


This is fun but one of my sons will soon be getting off the plane so gotta run to the airport. Will pick this up later.In a nutshell, I think the more favourable area before July 1st will be the SW Caribbean. The GOM is possible but not probable IMO.
Like fingerprints and snowflakes, no two are alike. Such are Hurricane seasons. I think it will be busy, but the landfall predictions some bloggers are prognosticating, a bit premature for me.
We want no action in the GOM ,if possible..period.

Thats a good bet.

Im rooting for a null start as in 92.

But thats how I roll.
Evening all.
Dicey in Wichita, KS tonight where there's a flood warning and tornado watch in the area. Difficult to see flooding at night.
And it's a flood prone area.

Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Like fingerprints and snowflakes, no two are alike. Such are Hurricane seasons. I think it will be busy, but the landfall predictions some bloggers are prognosticating, a bit premature for me.


When else are we gonna make them....lol. There are many professionals who include forecasts for the general track congregation and primary landfall risk areas in their seasonal outlook.
We must pay attention to Katla, albeit the IR imagery does not show anything significant now, history tells us that will change. That is this years wild card >

L8R >

Edit: Mt. Pinatubo erupted for 2 day and lowered the global temp 4 deg. for a year, Katla historically does 50 and always follows the "E" ,,,,, just sayin.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Like fingerprints and snowflakes, no two are alike. Such are Hurricane seasons. I think it will be busy, but the landfall predictions some bloggers are prognosticating, a bit premature for me.
So, you dont think there is any truth in the forecast for a Cat 4 at the corner of 86th and Vine on Aug. 6th??
Quoting pottery:
So, you dont think there is any truth in the forecast for a Cat 4 at the corner of 8th and Vine on Aug. 6th??


I live at 146th and Vine...so the eye will probally miss me. Maybe Aug. 8th.
2009 May 11 TCHP



2010 May 11th GOM





The GOM cool rumor was and always has been that.
Were way above the Climatological Norm and last year easily.

If ya gonna blog on it..ya have to do da work..
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I live at 146th and Vine...so the eye will probally miss me. Maybe Aug. 8th.

LOLOL Brilliant!
Quoting Levi32:


When else are we gonna make them....lol. There are many professionals who include forecasts for the general track congregation and primary landfall risk areas in their seasonal outlook.


That is their job. Doesn't mean it's going to happen.
Wish we could send some of this rain down your way Pottery. Looks like Kansas City, KS is also getting a drenching.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That is their job. Doesn't mean it's going to happen.

That's a good point......
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That is their job. Doesn't mean it's going to happen.


No, that's true of every single prediction of anything in the world, but I think we have enough knowledge of how the weather works to make general predictions of track congregations in advance. We don't know nothing. If we know that we're going into a La Nina and a cold PDO, with a certain SST profile in the Atlantic, we can get a broad idea of where tracks will likely tend to congregate in greatest concentration.

they changed it, take this ominous white wall as a premonition that hurricane season is almost here
Quoting Chicklit:
Wish we could send some of this rain down your way Pottery. Looks like Kansas City is also getting a drenching.

Yeah. I see that nasty weather has been hanging around that part of the country for a while. Tornados, Hail, Floods, bad.
Quoting Levi32:


I missed 1878, but you forgot there's a negative sign on 1974.


Where did the [pink graphic] from the PSD at NOAA of the most recent AMO go? It just vanished .... mysteriously. The adjacent links were unavailable to the public earlier, I noted, so ... you don't suppose?

Looking for a cached copy, but this isn't my forte.
good night everyone
Power of the Mighty Mississippi used to beat back oil spill
Water flows from one of the diversions


Quantcast

Gulf Oil Spill

State officials have opened up six diversions along the river, from St. Charles Parish to Plaquemines Parish. The diversions allow the Mississippi waters to act as a flushing system for the coast.

by Maya Rodriguez / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on May 12, 2010 at 9:01 PM

Updated today at 9:15 PM

As a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico continues to spread, federal, state and local officials are looking at a number of ways to try and keep the oil away from the coast. One idea includes harnessing the power of the mighty Mississippi River to protect the state's coastal marshes.

"We're going to have peak water, in about five more days, coming down the Mississippi River," said Garret Graves of the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority.

State officials have opened up six diversions along the river, from St. Charles Parish to Plaquemines Parish. The diversions allow the Mississippi waters to act as a flushing system for the coast.

"It really could provide a fresh water wedge potentially against encroaching oil," said Tim Doody, president of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority East.

One path the water is traveling through includes the Caernarvon diversion, on the border between St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes. Fresh water is moving through there at 8,000 cubic feet per second.

"We're trying to get as much fresh water as we can into both the Barataria Basin and Breton Sound area on the east bank," Graves said.

While the diversions are expected to keep some of the oil out of the coastal marshes, they could have some unintended consequences. Fresh water could throw off the salinity levels along the coast, affecting fisheries and estuaries. The alternative, though, is considered far worse.

"The ecological disaster that is this oil spill, far outweighs the potential for harm," Doody said.

Officials are now considering opening up the Bohemia Spillway, on the east bank of Plaquemines Parish. It could help divert even more of the river's water.

"That diversion actually has the capacity to run a couple hundred thousand cubic feet of water per second," Graves said. "So, [it has] a very, very large diversion potential."

The idea is now under serious consideration, but a decision will need to be made quickly. The Bohemia Spillway can only be used when the Mississippi River is high. It is now expected to crest at the Carrollton Gage on May 19.

"This is a different usage of the [Bohemia] Spillway than was ever intended," Doody said. "It was only intended as a flood control feature."

Officials have said they also considered opening up the Bonnet Carre Spillway, but because of its location, they don't believe it would be as effective as the other diversions.
Quoting davehub:
Looking at Jeff's report from the Hurricane Conference, he reports Greg Holland's prediction of a 60% increase in activity over a period of years. Assuming the 'Climate Model' includes global warming, I was under the impression that at some point, the temperature rise would also increase shear, which would actually reduce the number of Hurricanes. Any thoughts out there?

Actually, based on the climate model output (caveat!), a GFDL figures on fewer TS - cat3, but more cat 4 & 5:


The lesser TS - cat 3s is a product of some increased shear frm the GCMs, I think.

And a shift in the frequency of certain minimum central pressures:

(towards lower central pressures more often)

All based on the GCMs, though...with everything about them that is right, wrong, or unknown.

Nice writeup here: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/21st-century-projections-of-intense-hurricanes/
Quoting Patrap:


Make sure it has a Shear Map Decoder ring in the surprise KOTG
i was gonna put in a slurge deflector as a bonus with it
Something wicked your way will come. And will bring with it some rain, anyway.
Nice wave at 30W.

Quoting Patrap:


Yuck..but this is a good reminder to be prepared
Quoting Levi32:


No, that's true of every single prediction of anything in the world, but I think we have enough knowledge of how the weather works to make general predictions of track congregations in advance. We don't know nothing. If we know that we're going into a La Nina and a cold PDO, with a certain SST profile in the Atlantic, we can get a broad idea of where tracks will likely tend to congregate in greatest concentration.


That is your theory Levi. No two Hurricane seasons have ever, ever been exactly alike. Somewhat similar…yes. After this season is over, it will be different than and make another analog year for upcoming seasons.
Quoting Chicklit:
Wish we could send some of this rain down your way Pottery. Looks like Kansas City, KS is also getting a drenching.


Send some for us too! (Jamaica)
Quoting Levi32:


I missed 1878, but you forgot there's a negative sign on 1974.

Hmm, no 2 seasons are alike, of course, but I'll say, I'd take 1878 over what some are calling for. A little busy, but too terrible.

It's on order kimoskee!


Concensus appears Caribbean will be first.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That is your theory Levi. No two Hurricane seasons have ever, ever been exactly alike. Somewhat similar…yes. After this season is over, it will be different than and make another analog year for upcoming seasons.


I know, I never suggested that any season would be exactly like another.

That doesn't mean they can't get close....





Ignoring the similarities between analog years would be a mistake. There are ways to effectively use them. And by the way, Accuweather has done a pretty good job the last few years with the track congregation.

Anyway, I just think our science is advanced enough to start taking these steps. Most already have like Dr. Gray and others.
Quoting Chicklit:
It's on order kimoskee!

I waiting on it!!!! :-) Because I'm tired of daily water lock offs!
Quoting Levi32:


I know, I never suggested that any season would be exactly like another.

That doesn't mean they can't get close....





Ignoring the similarities between analog years would be a mistake. There are ways to effectively use them. And by the way, Accuweather has done a pretty good job the last few years with the track congregation.

Anyway, I just think our science is advanced enough to start taking these steps. Most already have like Dr. Gray and others.

I'll take 1998 before 2004, anytime I have a choice.
Oil Spill Video: Bob Marshall gives Wednesday update





Oil spill video: Bob Marshall gives latest update
By Andrew Boyd, The Times-Picayune
May 12, 2010, 8:05PM
Times-Picayune Outdoors editor Bob Marshall gives the latest update on the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in this video.





Post 559 - wording from NHC on that graphic:

"Special outlooks may issued if conditions warrant"

Hmmm... English not a prerequisite in college for met degree? LOL - looks like something I would type.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hmm, no 2 seasons are alike, of course, but I'll say, I'd take 1878 over what some are calling for. A little busy, but too terrible.



Yeah, well the number could have been a bit more than 12, seeing as how nobody was out there observing the systems that didn't hit land or ships. 12 back then was much above normal. But I could live with no major landfalls for sure.
xxx
We'll see what we can do, about it coming from Trini to Jamaica and crossing Caymans. When you get it please remember to be grateful though.


Unfortunately, they don't come with guidance systems attached so we'll just have to see what happens.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Where did the [pink graphic] from the PSD at NOAA of the most recent AMO go? It just vanished .... mysteriously. The adjacent links were unavailable to the public earlier, I noted, so ... you don't suppose?

Looking for a cached copy, but this isn't my forte.


Whoever posted that posted a temporary link, which you just put in your post. Those disappear after like an hour.
Is not that what I said? Can't you say...I agree?
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, well the number could have been a bit more than 12, seeing as how nobody was out there observing the systems that didn't hit land or ships. 12 back then was much above normal. But I could live with no major landfalls for sure.

Of course. Would not be surprised if:
a. some of those storms were stronger out at sea than recorded
b. there were a couple not observed (and now, not listed)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Isn%u2019t that what I said? Can't you say...I agree?


I am incapable of uttering those two words. And yes typing is a form of uttering.

xxx
My fault...back on IE :)
Geoffrey Dear, I think you've said that about three times. No, he can't say he agrees.
He's a kid, ROFL.
Goodnight all. Thanks for posting the updates Patrap but I cannot listen to a word of it until they say they have shut the infernal thing down.
Quoting Chicklit:
Geoffrey Dear, I think you've said that about three times. No, he can't say he agrees.
He's a kid, ROFL.
Goodnight all. Thanks for posting the updates Patrap but I cannot listen to a word of it until they say they have shut the infernal thing down.


Well I'd get comfortable..

Nothing is gonna work till DD-3 taps the relief well. All the moves now are for, well,..effort or show.

5 million gals spilled into the Environment and counting.
Taking this with a massive grain of salt, here is the extended SST dataset for 1878:



This, coupled with the SOI, makes 1878 appear very much like this year, but we can never really know.

Apologize for the repeat posts...You know I respect your opinions Levi...but it is not bad to disagree sometimes.
Quoting Levi32:
Taking this with a massive grain of salt, here is the extended SST dataset for 1878:



This, coupled with the SOI, makes 1878 appear very much like this year, but we can never really know.


Dat's a big grain of salt...

But could be similar once it is said and done...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Apologize for the repeat posts...You know I respect your opinions Levi...but it is not bad to disagree sometimes.


Yes I know, and the feeling is mutual. I was just attempting some of your humor, though I probably failed. I do agree with you on your comment about analogs, but I do think we aren't completely in the dark when it comes to predicting tracks.
595. beell
Anyway, I just think our science is advanced enough to start taking these steps

Some of those first steps in science over the last couple thousand years have done us some good, Levi!
Quoting Levi32:


Yes I know, and the feeling is mutual. I was just attempting some of your humor, though I probably failed. I do agree with you on your comment about analogs, but I do think we aren't completely in the dark when it comes to predicting tracks.


We are cool. But I really believe that we will not see a depression in the Atlantic basin this month. Kinda agree? Almost halfway through the month. I know things can change on a dime, but just don’t see it happening before June 1st.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hmm, no 2 seasons are alike, of course, but I'll say, I'd take 1878 over what some are calling for. A little busy, but too terrible.



S Fla would not like this year.
Quoting pottery:

I'll take 1998 before 2004, anytime I have a choice.


Tough call here. 1998 the state was on fire. 2004 had alot of 'canes.
Too early to tell Conan. As far as So. Fla.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We are cool. But I really believe that we will not see a depression in the Atlantic basin this month. Kinda agree? Almost halfway through the month. I know things can change on a dime, but just don’t see it happening before June 1st.


Yeah, I think there is a chance but not a great one. The next MJO pulse should be lighting up the Atlantic from May 25th to June 10th, putting most of the chance in June.
2004 was awful. Frances and Jeanne...weeks without power...17 days without work.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Too early to tell Conan. As far as So. Fla.


I meant if 1878 were to occur.
Quoting ElConando:


S Fla would not like this year.


Niether would the big bend
1878...have to ask Grothar about that.
605. JRRP
over Africa ??

606. P451
Portender of things to come. Good thing it's as south as it is and as early in the season it is.

But it's still an omen. It's going to be a rough tropical season.

hello everyone.

it's been almost two months since we've had rain.(we had a 5 minute drizzle about two weeks ago, that i'm not counting as rain) is anyone else in this boat?

Hey Guys,...

We've all been watching these impressive build ups of TCHP and SSTs and comparing them to previous years etc. But the NOAA site has that stuff achrived back to Jan. 2005. Does anyone know if that information (TCHP,..SSTs) is available for years like 2000-2004?? I'd be especially interested in comparing 2004 to the ones from 2005 to now,..that was a very active year.
609. P451
Quoting JRRP:
over Africa ??



Yes.

Things are that developed. We're 4+ weeks ahead of things here.
Quoting JRRP:
over Africa ??

yeah i've seen that before
611. P451
Quoting rocketboy105:
Hey Guys,...

We've all been watching these impressive build ups of TCHP and SSTs and comparing them to previous years etc. But the NOAA site has that stuff achrived back to Jan. 2005. Does anyone know if that information (TCHP,..SSTs) is available for years like 2000-2004?? I'd be especially interested in comparing 2004 to the ones from 2005 to now,..that was a very active year.


The problem is the lack of data going back. Maybe if our data started in 1900 instead of 1970 we'd have something to compare to.

But we don't.

All we know is:

*Water temps are 4 weeks ahead of average.
*Wind shear is dropping as expected.
*SAL is low.

It just seems that we're going to be witnessing some major storms here this summer.

Nothing off of Africa is going to form into anything anytime soon. Conditions just not favorable. But I think it is a sign of things to come.



Quoting truecajun:
hello everyone.

it's been almost two months since we've had rain.(we had a 5 minute drizzle about two weeks ago, that i'm not counting as rain) is anyone else in this boat?


I live in N TX. About 2 mos ago, as the El Nino started to fade away, the rain has been scarce here also.
Quoting truecajun:
hello everyone.

it's been almost two months since we've had rain.(we had a 5 minute drizzle about two weeks ago, that i'm not counting as rain) is anyone else in this boat?



Where do you live?

I'm in Louisiana, and yes, it's been abnormally dry here this summer, so much so that we're now officially in a mild drought.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nothing off of Africa is going to form into anything anytime soon. Conditions just not favorable. But I think it is a sign of things to come.





No, they won't develop into Cape Verde hurricanes, but waves this vigorous certainly have the potential to develop when they reach a more favorable upper-level wind environment.
Does anyone else think this is a useless model prediction based on insufficient data base/time.

Interesting but useless.

Greg Holland of NCAR looked at the distribution of the strongest hurricanes over time by using a mathematical description of the historical hurricane data. His analysis showed that during the period 1995 - 2008, we probably had about a 30% increase in Category 5 storms in the Atlantic, and an 18% increase in Category 4 hurricanes. Using a climate model, he predicted that by the years 2045 - 2055, we should see a 60% increase in Cat 5s, 32% increase in Cat 4s, and 16% increase in Cat 3s in the Atlantic.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, they won't develop into Cape Verde hurricanes, but waves this vigorous certainly have the potential to develop when they reach a more favorable upper-level wind environment.


The current waves will not last that long. Perhaps the C.V. season will start early...but not anytime soon.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nothing off of Africa is going to form into anything anytime soon. Conditions just not favorable. But I think it is a sign of things to come.



Quoting KoritheMan:


No, they won't develop into Cape Verde hurricanes, but waves this vigorous certainly have the potential to develop when they reach a more favorable upper-level wind environment.


The only place they could possibly develop is the western Caribbean, and while most of them don't have a great chance after transversing South America, they could accumulate into trouble by the end of the month. We've got what now....6 waves on the surface map? If they keep coming off like this, what do you think is gonna happen when you slam a whole train of tropical waves, even weak ones, westward towards Central America? You end up building up a lot of heat as air piles up in that area, and eventually we will see that in the form of heavy thunderstorm activity in the western Caribbean or eastern Pacific.
looks like rotation in the storm near topika

Link
Quoting P451:
Portender of things to come. Good thing it's as south as it is and as early in the season it is.

But it's still an omen. It's going to be a rough tropical season.




that wave looks vary strong i wounder if it will be are 1st 90L or name storm
621. xcool



85 GHz Radiance
you guys are all so forgeting that sea temper where are waves are comeing off are vary warm for any time of year
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The current waves will not last that long. Perhaps the C.V. season will start early...but not anytime soon.


Quoting Levi32:


The only place they could possibly develop is the western Caribbean, and while most of them don't have a great chance after transversing South America, they could accumulate into trouble by the end of the month. We've got what now....6 waves on the surface map? If they keep coming off like this, what do you think is gonna happen when you slam a whole train of tropical waves, even weak ones, westward towards Central America? You end up building up a lot of heat as air piles up in that area, and eventually we will see that in the form of heavy thunderstorm activity in the western Caribbean or eastern Pacific.


I was mainly referring to the Eastern Pacific, since their season is rapidly approaching. It's not unreasonable to assume that tropical cyclogenesis will occur there before long.
Quoting Tazmanian:
you guys are all so forgeting that sea temper where are waves are comeing off are vary warm for any time of year


True, but there's also the climatological westerlies in that area, evidenced by our tropical wave's poor satellite signature, with a sharp cirrus spike to the northeast.
oh cars about the satellite signature


has long has we can see the waves
Quoting Tazmanian:
oh cars about the satellite signature


has long has we can see the waves


I agree. Convectively active waves like this one are certainly very aesthetically pleasing, as well as fun to track. :P

But satellite signature is crucial to determining how favorable conditions are for tropical cyclogenesis. And right now, they are unfavorable.
hey guys it looks like gfs is expecting either a tropical wave or our AOI/tropical wave to develop a weak low pressure system near the Cayman Islands

Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree. Convectively active waves like this one are certainly very aesthetically pleasing, as well as fun to track. :P

But satellite signature is crucial to determining how favorable conditions are for tropical cyclogenesis. And right now, they are unfavorable.



turn but the wave are be low the red line so wind shear is vary low too none
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys it looks like gfs is expecting either a tropical wave or our AOI/tropical wave to develop a weak low pressure system near the Cayman Islands



What's the time frame?
the model I posted is the 00z 13/05/10
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the model I posted is the 00z 13/05/10


i dont think where going too see some in that soon
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the model I posted is the 00z 13/05/10


No I mean, on what day is the model forecasting that?
time frame is 132 hours, day 6, 18/05/10
Its truly just ITCZ convection! We see that all the time during Tropical Season. Nothing will come of this unless it pulls away from the ITCZ and the further north it moves the higher the Shear. Nothing is going to develop that far out yet.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its truly just ITCZ convection! We see that all the time during Tropical Season. Nothing will come of this unless it pulls away from the ITCZ and the further north it moves the higher the Shear. Nothing is going to develop that far out yet.
Hey tampaspin yeah its not going to develop too much shear in the basin but you got to admit the tropical wave is impressive for may and this could be a precursor to a busy season in the Mdr.
This is a strong tropical wave, but nothing will form. It's just a sign of things to come as some people are saying. I will be watching the Caribbean in 2 weeks. With the MJO pulse coming, shear possibly relaxing, something might just pop up, I mean.. If we can get Andrea and Barry (both 2007), we could get Alex in 2-4 weeks time frame.
Quoting Floodman:


Try this:

Memorex discontinued product web page

Or you might find this useful

Memorex Driver Utility



thanks flood!
638. JRRP
Morning all.

The studies the doc encapsulated in his blog are interesting, at least in examining trends. The one that I found most interesting is that world-wide only the ATL seems to be seeing this upward trend in TC formation. (Didn't the one guy from UMiami find that there seems to have been a DEcrease in the Indian Ocean systems in the last period?) I'm wondering if we are seeing a genuine "global warming" trend, or if this is more of a multi-decadal pattern spanning 7+ decades. It's not that we haven't seen such an upswing before; it just seems the cycle lasts longer than 25-30 years.....
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hmm, no 2 seasons are alike, of course, but I'll say, I'd take 1878 over what some are calling for. A little busy, but too terrible.



When I do my historical reenactment as my GG Grandfather Hannibal Pierce in 1883 (dressed as in my avatar), I discuss in first person the 1878 hurricanes.. Gramps got in his sailboat the "Creole" at Hypoluxo Island to go to the nearest store at Titusville.. 165 miles away, and it took nearly two months to get back home...
I gotta go.

Have a good day, all.
Details are sketchy, but a gas platform has sunk off the coast of Venezuela. All 95 people were evacuated safely.
From BBC news website.
The wave East of here is not looking so happy this morning...
Hey guys!

Just looked at the GFS shear model, it will NOT let go of heavy shear in the GOM. That's normal for this time of year, right?
The Caribbean however, extremely low shear.
NAO
Quoting cg2916:
Hey guys!

Just looked at the GFS shear model, it will NOT let go of heavy shear in the GOM. That's normal for this time of year, right?


yea....especially during the transition of El Nino.
Good morning from Puerto Rico. The forecast continues to be a rainy one this weekend for the PR /Virgin Islands area,90% for Saturday.

If anyone wants to participate in the question I have in my blog about which will be the big ones this upcomming season go here.

Link
If this is today:



Just imagine September:

I do not expect development just lots of rain in store for Guyana/Venezuela.



I'm out, have a great day, I will be checking in later today.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys it looks like gfs is expecting either a tropical wave or our AOI/tropical wave to develop a weak low pressure system near the Cayman Islands

Hmmm, Interesting, I'll be on it when I come back. I'm out, have a good day.
Good morning..
The Euro and the Canadian are developing a piece of this tropical wave and moving it up the Florida East Coast as a 1004 or 1003 milibar low at day 10. It looks as if this low may get vented by a trough to it's NW. So not a true tropical system but interesting none the less. Expect the Rainy Season to get going Sunday in S FL and then spread north into C FL on Monday.
656. P451
Good morning. I think "Hostile" is the word on this today:

Quoting P451:
Good morning. I think "Hostile" is the word on this today:



Yes, but that shear is going to lessen over the next several days.
A fogbow

And a glory...

...which "can only be seen when the observer is directly between the Sun and cloud"
608 rocketboy105 "We've all been watching...TCHP and SSTs and comparing them to previous years etc. But the NOAA site has that stuff archived [only] back to Jan. 2005."

NOAA has had older maps in the public access archives, and has been deleting the oldest maps as the years progress.
Haven't the slightest clue as to why; it costs manhours&money to deliberately decide upon and implement the deletions. And none to just leave the archives be.
But that's bureaucratic administrators for ya,
"Make ourselves feel important by keeping the public in the dark."
Tropically 95S & 97S are in a battle, they are too close together to both make it. 95S looks to be winning at the moment but 97S appears to still have game..

Quick run through the news..

They found the body of the 19yr old TN boy that went tubing in the flood.

NE is assessing crops after the freeze..apples & blueberrys hit hard.

Shrimpers, fishermen, hotel owners are beginning to feel the trickle down economic effect of the Gulf oil letting.

Don't forget the Preakness is this weekend...
The last talk summed on Dr. Masters Blog above by Greg Holland seems to base climatology on 13 years of data. That seems pitifully short sighted. It also seems a bit alarmist to take the rising limb of hurricane activity and project it decades into the future when hurricane activity is known to run in cycles longer than 13 years.
I only saw the summary so it may be a misconception on my part.
StormW~ I've never seen this term reactive El Nino any where but here & a total amatuer's site. From what I gather ya'll are saying it started from a reaction to the atmosphere. When does it not? When the Kelvin Waves coming rolling across stronger & more frequent a developing El Nino is expected. This last onset was no different than any other. & even if it was, it's the heat build up that causes the shear. Why is heat from a "reactive" El Nino any more special that it gets to escape the laws of physics & atmosphere when the El Nino is over?
Quoting aspectre:
608 rocketboy105 "We've all been watching...TCHP and SSTs and comparing them to previous years etc. But the NOAA site has that stuff archived [only] back to Jan. 2005."

NOAA has had older maps in the public access archives, and has been deleting the oldest maps as the years progress.
Haven't the slightest clue as to why; it costs manhours&money to deliberately decide upon and implement the deletions. And none to just leave the archives be.
But that's bureaucratic administrators for ya,
"Make ourselves feel important by keeping the public in the dark."
Hi Aspectre - Just lurking a bit before I set out, and I saw your post.

NOAA has quite a bit of data, including gridded SST data going back to 1854, at the National Climatic Data Center (For SST data start here). If you follow the links you can make your own maps from the raw data.

Here is NOAA's policy on data access(pdf)

NOAA/National Climatic Data Center Open Access to Physical Climate Data Policy
December 2009

The basic tenet of physical climate data management at NOAA is full and open data access. All raw physical climate data available from NOAA’s various climate observing systems as well as the output data from state-of-the-science climate models are openly available in as timely a manner as possible. The timeliness of such data is dependent upon its receipt, coupled with the associated quality control procedures necessary to ensure that the data are valid. In addition, the latest versions of all derived data sets are made available to the public. NOAA also provides access to all of its major climate-related model simulations.

[...] .

C-Ya'
Quoting Skyepony:
StormW~ I've never seen this term reactive El Nino any where but here & a total amatuer's site. From what I gather ya'll are saying it started from a reaction to the atmosphere. When does it not? When the Kelvin Waves coming rolling across stronger & more frequent a developing El Nino is expected. This last onset was no different than any other. & even if it was, it's the heat build up that causes the shear. Why is heat from a "reactive" El Nino any more special that it gets to escape the laws of physics & atmosphere when the El Nino is over?


Sorry for being nosy, but what was the name of the "total amateur's" site?
It is crazy there are so many waves so early even if they are embedded mostly in the ITCZ. I have been watching these for a while and while NHC didn't call the earlier ones TW's they had all the characteristics of one. I really don't think we can rule out any of these tropical waves from turning into TD's, TS's or even hurricanes. Below 10N they wont' get a good circulation going but if they get enough strong convection with weak low level steering they can drift the few degress north they would need to get the energy to form a strong closed circulation.
The water heat content and moisture are there. If the shear relaxes anywhere in their path they can blow up in < 24 hours.

Quoting sailingallover:
It is crazy there are so many waves so early even if they are embedded mostly in the ITCZ. I have been watching these for a while and while NHC didn't call the earlier ones TW's they had all the characteristics of one. I really don't think we can rule out any of these tropical waves from turning into TD's, TS's or even hurricanes. Below 10N they wont' get a good circulation going but if they get enough strong convection with weak low level steering they can drift the few degress north they would need to get the energy to form a strong closed circulation.
The water heat content and moisture are there. If the shear relaxes anywhere in their path they can blow up in < 24 hours.



Too many ifs.....its May !!
Quoting Chucktown:


Too many ifs.....its May !!


Computer models try to develope a piece of that wave in about 9 to 10 along the East Coast of Florida. Whether this will be tropical or not is unknown because of a trough absorbing it.
To be honest, the calendar has less to do with formation than conditions do; tropical systems can form anytime the conditions are right. Where the calendar really comes in is when we look at how far a developed system can get...typically, out of sequence tropical systems (and there've been a few) develop because there's a pocket of favorable conditions...the system moves out of the pocket and they disspate or transition to ex-trop. The issue here is that if something does form the whole basin is transitioning to a summer, hurricane season pattern making it more likely that a forming system will survive.

I agree that it's highly unlikely that we'll see a full blown hurricane develop, but given the time of year and the conditions it's less unlikely than it was say, 6 weeks ago
Good morning everyone!

Back to watching the tropics for another uneventful day.

Hope everyone in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas stays safe today.
Quoting Floodman:
To be honest, the calendar has less to do with formation than conditions do; tropical systems can form anytime the conditions are right. Where the calendar really comes in is when we look at how far a developed system can get...typically, out of sequence tropical systems (and there've been a few) develop because there's a pocket of favorable conditions...the system moves out of the pocket and they disspate or transition to ex-trop. The issue here is that if something does form the whole basin is transitioning to a summer, hurricane season pattern making it more likely that a forming system will survive.

I agree that it's highly unlikely that we'll see a full blown hurricane develop, but given the time of year and the conditions it's less unlikely than it was say, 6 weeks ago

Hey Floodman, how are ya? This is awful about the spill in the gulf.
Sheri
Quoting Floodman:
To be honest, the calendar has less to do with formation than conditions do; tropical systems can form anytime the conditions are right. Where the calendar really comes in is when we look at how far a developed system can get...typically, out of sequence tropical systems (and there've been a few) develop because there's a pocket of favorable conditions...the system moves out of the pocket and they disspate or transition to ex-trop. The issue here is that if something does form the whole basin is transitioning to a summer, hurricane season pattern making it more likely that a forming system will survive.

I agree that it's highly unlikely that we'll see a full blown hurricane develop, but given the time of year and the conditions it's less unlikely than it was say, 6 weeks ago


Great Synopsis Flood! That is a correct once the MJO retuns next week watchout.
We are still waiting for summer here in the UK! last night was the coldest may night across the UK since 1996. And after the 3 washout summers in the last 3 years and paralysing winter this year, the barbeque is busy rusting into nothing.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:

Hey Floodman, how are ya? This is awful about the spill in the gulf.
Sheri


Hey, Sheri! Yeah, I'll say this one the whole spill thing: it turns out that the BOP was disabled (the battery was dead and BP admits that there were hydraulic leaks in the device) making this the fault of all the parties involved. So much for BPs 6.03 billion dollar first quarter profit. I have no real issues with deep water drilling, but the industry has been absolutely negligent in keeping up with the safety needs for projects like this one
Quoting Jeff9641:


Great Synopsis Flood! That is a correct once the MJO retuns next week watchout.


Thanks, Jeff...yeah, once the MJO ticks upward, it's going to get very interesting, particularly in the central and western Carib...
675. MahFL
Quoting CycloneUK:
We are still waiting for summer here in the UK! last night was the coldest may night across the UK since 1996. And after the 3 washout summers in the last 3 years and paralysing winter this year, the barbeque is busy rusting into nothing.


Actually thats physically impossible, you can't destroy matter.
Quoting CycloneUK:
We are still waiting for summer here in the UK! last night was the coldest may night across the UK since 1996. And after the 3 washout summers in the last 3 years and paralysing winter this year, the barbeque is busy rusting into nothing.


But CyckloneUK, there is no such thing as BBQ season...I've BBQed in blizzards! You should be firing that bad boy up every chance you get!
Quoting Floodman:


But CyckloneUK, there is no such thing as BBQ season...I've BBQed in blizzards! You should be firing that bad boy up every chance you get!


Nothing tastes better then BBQ'd spare ribs on a -20 windchill night.



Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response


Deepwater Horizon Response


+ Vessel of Opportunity Inquiry
+ Government Affairs Inquiry
+ Media Inquiry
o Join Mailing List

DATE: May 13, 2010 09:24:30 CST
MEDIA ADVISORY: Unified Incident Command, Mobile, Ala., to hold press briefing
Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866)-448-5816
Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401

Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

WHO: Capt. Steven Poulin, U.S. Coast Guard incident commander and John Putnam, BP incident commander.

WHAT: The Deepwater Horizon Response Unified Incident Command, Mobile, Ala., is scheduled to hold a press briefing about ongoing response operations, community outreach and local volunteer programs along the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coasts.

WHEN: Thursday, May 13, 2010, 4:15 p.m. CDT

WHERE: Arthur R. Outlaw Convention Center, One South Water Street Mobile, Ala. 36602

CONTACT: Mobile Joint Information Center (251) 445-8965

For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
Funny...i am smoking on my smoker today....LOve the smell of Hickory comin out of that chimmney.
Quoting CycloneUK:
We are still waiting for summer here in the UK! last night was the coldest may night across the UK since 1996. And after the 3 washout summers in the last 3 years and paralysing winter this year, the barbeque is busy rusting into nothing.

you should rename summer, bummer.

speaking of BBQ'ing
Today


Mostly
Sunny
Hi 90 °F Tonight


Mostly
Clear
Lo 69 °F Friday


Mostly
Sunny
Hi 91 °F Friday
Night

Partly
Cloudy
Lo 70 °F Saturday


Mostly
Sunny
Hi 90 °F Saturday
Night

Mostly
Clear
Lo 72 °F Sunday


Slight Chc
Tstms
Hi 91 ° Ftmyers is burning up with 60% humid on top!
Has Bp tried the new CAP that they was lowering yesterday yet? WILL THIS WORK?
Quoting NEwxguy:


Nothing tastes better then BBQ'd spare ribs on a -20 windchill night.


Yeah, man...that's what I'm talking about!

I can remember BBQing when I lived in St Louis with 6" of snow on the ground and another 4" falling...you brush off the pit, shovel an area in front of it so you can work on it and bang! zoom!

I did up some mighty fine pork steaks that night...got to use Maul's Sweet 'n' Mild sauce
Good morning everybody! How is everyone? Buhdog, you're making me hungry talking about BBQ'ing.

How is the Tropical Wave in the C ATL coming along??
685. MahFL
If BP tell you, be thankfull, and no it won't work, it's all smoke and mirrors to deflect from the real timeline that the releif wells are going to take to drill. Also I understand it's not 100 % certain the releif wells will work either.
686. MahFL
"Maddeningly, they lost a day trying to close a ram without realizing it had been replaced by a useless test part."

Trully unbeleiveable neglegence, 1. to replace the part with a useless one, and 2. not to tell the people that needed to know.


Way off topic, but I stand corrected; I made a statement the other day that nearly all of the oil we use here in the States comes from overseas and that nearly all of our oil is shipped elsewhere...here is a quote from the EIA website:

"About 53% of the crude oil and petroleum products used in the United States in 2009 came from other countries."

The website that came from is
EIA
Quoting Floodman:
Way off topic, but I stand corrected; I made a statement the other day that nearly all of the oil we use here in the States comes from overseas and that nearly all of our oil is shipped elsewhere...here is a quote from the EIA website:

"About 53% of the crude oil and petroleum products used in the United States in 2009 came from other countries."

The website that came from is
EIA

Good morning Flood. Tie down your lawn furniture we may get some gusty thunderstorms later this afternoon!
NEW BLOG
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th."

Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005

20May2010

7Jun2005

20May2010

7Jun2005

20May2010