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Hurricane Tomas lashing Haiti with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

Deadly Hurricane Tomas has intensified into a dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds this morning, and is lashing Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic with torrential rains. Observations from the Gran Piedra, Cuba radar show that the eye of Tomas is skirting the tip of the southwestern Peninsula of Haiti, and the winds of the powerful eastern eyewall of the storm are pounding the western end of the peninsula. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft just left Tomas, and measured top surface winds of 86 mph at 7:13am EDT. Satellite loops of Tomas show an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds with very cold tops has pushed into the lower stratosphere above Tomas and has flattened out, hiding the surface center from view. An eye is not yet visible on satellite imagery. The latest center fix at 7:08am EDT found that the pressure had risen slightly to 988 mb, which may be a sign that interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Haiti may have caused some disruption of Tomas. However, Tomas should resume intensifying this afternoon now that the center has moved past the southwestern tip of Haiti, as wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and SSTs are a very warm 29.5°C.


Figure 1. Rainfall rate for Tomas as observed by the F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:42am EDT Friday, November 5, 2010. Heaviest rainfall rates in excess of 1.4 inches per hour (pink colors) were in the west eyewall, and are likely to miss Haiti. However, a long band of intense rain (1/2" - 3/4" per hour) extended to the southwest of Port-au-Prince, and these rains will impact the cities in Haiti most vulnerable to catastrophic flooding, Port-au-Prince and Gonaives. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Impact on Hispaniola and Cuba
A trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. is drawing Tomas northeastward at 9 mph, and this forward speed will gradually increase to 15 mph by early Saturday morning. Hurricane force winds extend outwards only 15 miles to the east of Tomas' center, and only the extreme tips of Haiti's southwest and northwest peninsulas will receive hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph extend out about 140 miles to the east, and Tomas will pass far enough from the Port-au-Prince earthquake zone that winds there will not exceed 30 - 35 mph. However, the northern Haitian city of Gonaives will receive 40 - 45 mph winds this afternoon and this evening, as will the eastern tip of Cuba. Rainfall is the primary concern from Tomas, though, not wind. Satellite estimates (Figure 1) indicate that Tomas has already dumped up to 6 inches of rain on Haiti's southwest peninsula, and 3 inches in the Port-au-Prince earthquake zone. Recent microwave imagery (Figure 2) shows that while the heaviest rains from Tomas lie in the west eyewall and will miss Haiti, a long band of heavy rain with rainfall rates of 1/2" - 3/4" per hour lies to the southwest of Port-au-Prince and Gonaives, the two most vulnerable cities in Haiti to catastrophic flooding. The rain band is lined up to bring the earthquake zone of Haiti an additional 3" - 6" of rain today and tonight, bringing the storm total for Port-au-Prince and the surrounding mountains to 6" - 9". Rains of this magnitude are likely to cause extremely dangerous flooding for the 1.3 million Haitians living in makeshift refugee camps, and may cause heavy loss of life. Also of concern is the rains that will fall in northwestern Haiti, particularly in the highly vulnerable city of Gonaives, where rains from Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 killed 3,000 people. A band of heavy rain will also affect the southern Dominican Republic today, and total rainfall amounts approaching ten inches in the mountains near the southwestern coast will likely cause dangerous flooding and mudslides.


Figure 2. Satellite-estimated rain amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 2am EDT Friday, November 5, 2010. Rainfall amounts of up to 6 inches (dark green colors) occurred over Costa Rica and the extreme southwestern tip of Haiti. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Impact on the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands
Tomas appears likely to thread the narrow gap of water between Cuba and Haiti, and will likely emerge into the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 1 hurricane. According to the 5am EDT NHC wind radius forecast (Figure 3), tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should begin in the Inagua Islands by noon today, then spread to the Turks and Caicos Islands by 3pm EDT. A 30-mile wide swath along the center of Tomas' path will receive hurricane force winds of 74+ mph. Once Tomas pushes north of the islands on Sunday, the storm should weaken quickly, as wind shear is expected to rise to a very high 50 knots.


Figure 3. Predicted position and location of Tomas' tropical storm force winds (dark green colors) and hurricane force winds (yellow colors) as predicted in the 5am EDT NHC advisory.

Costa Rica mudslides kill 20
Mudslides killed at least 20 people in Costa Rica yesterday, after heavy rains sent mud rushing over at least five homes in San Antonio de Escazu, a suburb of the nation's capital. A very moist flow of Pacific air been drawn eastwards over Central America over the past three days by Hurricane Tomas, triggering the heavy rains in Costa Rica. This moisture has also been drawn into Hurricane Tomas, and is helping fuel the heavy rains over Haiti. Satellite observations (Figure 2) suggest that up to 6 inches of rain fell over Costa Rica during the 24 hours ending at 2am EDT this morning. Earlier in the week, an additional 2 - 6 inches of rain had fallen over the nation.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief has shipped their mobile kitchen to Quisqueya, Haiti, and the kitchen will be ready to feed 500 people per day.
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon.

My post on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

some snow in the northeast today winter its here for now but a big warm up soon by tuseday..
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

From the previous blog. Looks like the NOAA jets are headed home after next task is complete. And future Air Force jets are being discussed in conference call today.

1002. CyclonicVoyage 2:02 PM GMT on November 05, 2010
Friday November 5

NOAA-43: Down day as storm proximity is too close islands

NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission in T.S. Tomas, scheduled takeoff at 20:00 UTC (4:00 PM local) from St Croix, landing at MacDill AFB/Tampa.

Saturday November 6

NOAA-43: scheduled for a tasked mission in T.S. Tomas, takeoff will be at 8:00 UTC (4:00 AM local) from St. Croix, landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa around 12:30 pm local.

G-IV

Thursday November 4

NOAA-49: flew a tasked synoptic mission into TD Tomas. Takeoff was at 05:30 UTC (1:30 AM EDT) from St. Croix, recovering at MacDill AFB/Tampa. No further flights are planned.

AFRC DRIFT BUOY DEPLOYMENT: None at this time.

CONFERENCE CALL

An HRD Conference call is scheduled for tomorrow, Friday November 5 at 10:30 AM to discuss the further missions in TD Tomas.

Action: Quote | Modify Comment
giving this a read & then out for a while -- need to change the brain channel -- I keep thinking of Haitian babies, children, suffering & the frustration of watching this unfold w/ no ability --short of donations and prayer to make a difference
Once Tomas pushes north of the islands on Sunday, the storm should weaken quickly, as wind shear is expected to rise to a very high 50 knots. wow!!!!maybe wind shear up to 70 knots after 92 hours from now..

Thanks for update, Doc.
Good luck Haiti....

imagine how scared young children are.
Quoting Orcasystems:


No foreign aircraft can overfly another sovereign nations airspace without permission. That includes civilian and military aircraft.

True, but the NOAA was granted special exception to the rule by Cuba because it's in that nation's best interest to allow HH recon; they allow the overflights, and in return their mets receive nearly complete access to HH data, which they use for their own needs. Seems like a fair deal, if you ask me...
Quoting surfmom:
giving this a read & then out for a while -- need to change the brain channel -- I keep thinking of Haitian babies, children, suffering & the frustration of watching this unfold w/ no ability --short of donations and prayer to make a difference


Not a good thought for the day..but its a fact and its happening.

Go read these website SM, people are helping :)






Haiti Hope Fund

Quoting TampaSpin:


That is exactly correct....as i just stated also .....advanced request must be given in advance to get permission.. Orca is wrong that can't just fly in there as they please.
The NAM model has Tomas meandering over Haiti...Not a likely scenario..Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

True, but the NOAA was granted special exception to the rule by Cuba because it's in that nation's best interest to allow HH recon; they allow the overflights, and in return their mets receive nearly complete access to HH data, which they use for their own needs. Seems like a fair deal, if you ask me...
Fair indeed..In 1963 the Cuban government accused the U.S. of seeding Hurricane Flora, causing the prodigious rainfall amounts and huge death toll...They disallowed U.S.flights over Cuba. The U.S. denied all accusations of seeding hurricanes over Cuba.
Tomas sure looks STRONG this AM. It's a bad scenario for Haiti, a strengthening hurricane approaching them. UGH! For those interested:

Tomas Live Feed
Quoting TampaSpin:


Admin. if you don't do something about this, OH THE KING FISH HAS SPOKEN

Quoting Orcasystems:


BS, they overfly Cuba all the time doing active Hurricanes, in the area


Sorry TS, gotta side with Orca on this one. That post was a reply to someone who said they CANNOT fly in Cuban airspace. Not saying they don't need authorization.
I think you'll fins the HH's reticence to fly Tomas as he threads his way through the Windward Passage is less about sovereign airspace and more about topography. Guantanamo Province is pretty rugged.
Quoting Neapolitan:

True, but the NOAA was granted special exception to the rule by Cuba because it's in that nation's best interest to allow HH recon; they allow the overflights, and in return their mets receive nearly complete access to HH data, which they use for their own needs. Seems like a fair deal, if you ask me...


As an admittedly drunken brit about to hit the sack in Australia (so I won't see replies), I feel compelled to point out that a truly fair deal would be to give them all the HH data, rather than just "nearly complete" access. As a scientist, the idea of witholding data in a collaboration is both alien and disgusting to me, and I really hope it doesn't happen in actuality.

NN folks, and good luck to Haiti. Hope the mighty Tomas spares you as much as possible... YNWA...
How about a look under the hood of Tomas?

I was finally right on with the intensity scheme last night and I think it could clinch category 2 force winds before weakening. There is a very slim chance it rapidly intensifies to a major Hurricane, but the possibility is there. A strengthening Hurricane is not good for Haiti, but it could have been worse. Thank God these prayers were answered in some way.
Quoting CBJeff:
I think you'll fins the HH's reticence to fly Tomas as he threads his way through the Windward Passage is less about sovereign airspace and more about topography. Guantanamo Province is pretty rugged.


I was reading some other pages..and I can't find it again... their biggest concern with flying over land during a hurricane is tornadoes, and I would assume (although I did not see it posted) rock filled clouds.
Quoting Quadrantid:


As an admittedly drunken brit about to hit the sack in Australia (so I won't see replies), I feel compelled to point out that a truly fair deal would be to give them all the HH data, rather than just "nearly complete" access. As a scientist, the idea of witholding data in a collaboration is both alien and disgusting to me, and I really hope it doesn't happen in actuality.

NN folks, and good luck to Haiti. Hope the mighty Tomas spares you as much as possible... YNWA...

I didn't mean to insinuate any science- or weather-related data was being withheld; I merely meant that, being USAF/NOAA planes, there are certain military-related data that are not being openly transmitted to Cuban officials, and rightly so.
Quoting Neapolitan:

I didn't mean to insinuate any science- or weather-related data was being withheld; I merely meant that, being USAF/NOAA planes, there are certain military-related data that are not being openly transmitted to Cuban officials, and rightly so.


Ah -- that's fair enough -- it just sounded scary that weather info could be withheld even though they granted airspace.

I'm piddled and puddled -- so no offence meant -- but I'm glad scientific sense holds sway even if military arguments go on :)

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


We have alot of rain here in azua from early this morning..... azua is on the red spot of this map
Pilon's radar just lost sight of the eye wall Tomas
10. unruly 2:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

Poof!!!!
Little-known Cuban overflight fact:

A few years before HH was granted overflight, US military aircraft were (very quietly) granted overflight for medical evacuation flights from Guantanamo Bay.
I have updated my latest blog entry on Tomas. Please take a look at it and make any relavent comments.
www.loveachild.com


Hi Everyone: I have been to Haiti 13 times with these people and used to run the office, and I KNOW almiost EVERY dollar goes to the people. This couple are the hardest working and most dedicated people I have ever met. They have schools in l"artibonite where the cholera outbreak started and schools in the southern mountains that will be severely threatened by Tomas.
Please help and thank you Link
received a twitter from my nephew in Leogane. water is rising in the streets. the city buses are picking up people that do not have shelter and moving them to higher ground.His comment was "at leasr govt works sometimes", also the UN is patroling the streets.
with such a large eye could this become annular before reaching the shear
Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:
received a twitter from my nephew in Leogane. water is rising in the streets. the city buses are picking up people that do not have shelter and moving them to higher ground.His comment was "at leasr govt works sometimes", also the UN is patroling the streets.
Glad to hear something is being done although I can't help but say it should have been done much sooner. God be with them.
Quoting CBJeff:
Little-known Cuban overflight fact:

A few years before HH was granted overflight, US military aircraft were (very quietly) granted overflight for medical evacuation flights from Guantanamo Bay.


My Cuban Father worked for the CIA in the 60's and they overflew Cuba all the time without any permission.........:)
Tomas now forecasted to reach 90 knots

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 73.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
Quoting hydrus:
The NAM model has Tomas meandering over Haiti...Not a likely scenario..Link


Might only happen if the eye moves over the peninsula and gets disrupted severely. So if that happens, well have to wait and see, But I agree. unlikely.
Inagua Islands are going to get nailed.
The Haitians seem to be escaping a "worse case" direct hit. Although heavy rains will cause problems, we feel that the Haitians will bounce back, as they are a resilient people. We must offer aid and get their country in a recovery mode as soon as possible.Support the charities such as Red cross, Sean Penn and Porthouse.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
with such a large eye could this become annular before reaching the shear


Honestly I think Haiti Has had enough....Tomas is no where near approaching that of an annular hurricane.....I think thats a bit or actually way overboard. Outflow is great in ne quad and at best fair elsewhere......but most important the center is tilted significantly NE and Tomas is not that well stacked......thats why no eye is visible and if you watch the loop there is considerable warming of the cloudtops begining in the last hour or so. I just dont think Tomas is continueing to strenthen at all.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Inagua Islands are going to get nailed.

Big time
Seems that yesterday's Cuban plane crash that claimed 68 lives is being blamed at least in part on Tomas.

Link & Link

Relatively unpopulated though, less than 1000 residents. I bet they all work at the Morton Salt Plant too.

Inagua
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
District of Inagua
%u2014 District %u2014
Coordinates: 254%u2032N 7720%u2032W%uFEFF / %uFEFF25.067N 77.333W%uFEFF / 25.067; -77.333
Country The Bahamas Bahamas
Island Great Inagua
Established 1999
Government
- Type District Council
- Chief Councillor Francoinn Cox
- Deputy Chief Councillor Colin Ingraham
Area
- Total 1,679 km2 (648.3 sq mi)
Population (2008)
- Total ~1,000
- Density 0.59/km2 (1.5/sq mi)
Time zone EST (UTC%u22125)
- Summer (DST) EDT (UTC%u22124)
Area code(s) 242

Inagua is the southernmost district of the Bahamas comprising the islands of Great Inagua and Little Inagua.

Great Inagua is the third largest island in The Bahamas at 596 sq mi (1544 km) and lies about 55 miles (90 km) from the eastern tip of Cuba. The island is about 55 x 19 miles (90 x 30 km) in extent, the highest point being 108 ft (33 m) on East Hill. It encloses several lakes, most notably the 12-mile (19 km) long Lake Windsor (also called Lake Rosa) which occupies nearly 1/4 of the interior. The population of Great Inagua is 969 (2000 census).

The island's capital and only harbour is Matthew Town, named after George Matthew a 19th century Governor of the Bahamas. This town houses the Morton Salt Company%u2019s main facility, producing one million tonnes of sea salt a year - the second largest solar saline operation in North America and Inagua's main industry. Great Inagua Airport (IATA: IGA, ICAO: MYIG) is located nearby.

There is a large bird sanctuary in the centre of the island with a population of more than 80,000 of West Indian Flamingoes and many other exotic birds such as the native Bahama Parrot, the Bahama woodstar hummingbird, Bahama pintails, Brown pelicans, Tri-colored herons, Snowy egrets, Reddish egrets, Stripe-headed tanangers, Cormorants, Roseate spoonbills, American kestrels, and Burrowing owls.

The neighbouring Little Inagua five miles (8 km) to the northeast is uninhabited and occupied by a large Land and Sea Park. It is 30 sq mi (78 km2) and has herds of feral donkeys and goats (descendants of stock introduced by the French). Little Inagua has a large protective reef that prevents boats from coming too close, extending up to a mile away from the island in all directions around it.
Huh.... thought we had already had the last faux annular reference of the season. Good times.
Actually outflow is probably a bit better than fair and excellent in the NW and NE quadrants...
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
with such a large eye could this become annular before reaching the shear
Annular? Ain't going to happen. It only applies to major hurricanes.
I have updated my blog post on Tomas,

I think it has peaked out in intensity. Looks like it will maintain current intensity and then begin weakening over the next several hours.
seems as if he is falling apart could be a extended period of heavy rain around hispanola unless the front clears the island
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I have updated my blog post on Tomas,

I think it has peaked out in intensity. Looks like it will maintain current intensity and then begin weakening over the next several hours.


Thats what I am thinking and am quite surprised with some others comments. But all are entitled to opinion. I guess onlt time will tell, but in the short term I think tomas is looking less impressive now than 4 and 6 hours ago. Gonna be interesting to see what he does intensity wise and how fast he does it.
Quoting islander101010:
seems as if he is falling apart could be a extended period of heavy rain around hispanola unless the front clears the island


That's a good point. I guess if Tomas begins to crumble now, it will loosen up, and its cloud field will expand further away from the center, which indeed would increase the period of rain for a little longer.
Quoting CBJeff:
Little-known Cuban overflight fact:

A few years before HH was granted overflight, US military aircraft were (very quietly) granted overflight for medical evacuation flights from Guantanamo Bay.

In the late 90's and early 00's I remember being on commercial flights going to Montigo Bay, Jamaica and we overflew Cuba every time. I am sure the airlines had permission granted to do that.
Quoting roberie:

In the late 90's and early 00's I remember being on commercial flights going to Montigo Bay, Jamaica and we overflew Cuba every time. I am sure the airlines had permission granted to do that.


Commercial airlines can always fly over cuba, but no military aircraft
rain and more rain....

Tomas is weakening as he nears Gitmo.



The very slight adjustment to the left of the forecast track, if correct, could save us here on Provo from the very worst of the winds.
Quoting lordhuracan01:
rain and more rain....



Where are you located? Rain doesn't look too heavy.
Quoting barotropic:


Thats what I am thinking and am quite surprised with some others comments. But all are entitled to opinion. I guess onlt time will tell, but in the short term I think tomas is looking less impressive now than 4 and 6 hours ago. Gonna be interesting to see what he does intensity wise and how fast he does it.


LOL, yeah. It wasn't that long ago that Tomas looked super impressive, but the really ridiculous cloud tops have really started to wane away with outflow beginning to get blocked west of center.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were opinions of big strengthening based on the satellite appearance 4 hours ago. These storms are quiet dynamic, it helps to keep checking on them frequently to see what they are up to.
Good Morning to all!

From Curacao: I see on the water vapor loop that the rain band of Thomas have reached this morning to aruba. By any chance does anyone know if these rain bands will reach the island of Curacao? We really don't need anymore rain!!
Information from the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in the Frequently Asked Questions link.

Q. Does Cuba Permit or Even Support Operations When the Storm is over the Island?

A. Cuba does permit operations by both NOAA and the US Air Force Reserves in its territorial waters when a hurricane is in the vicinity of the Island. Both units operate for the most part outside the 12-mile limit, although NOAA have been permitted to operate over land occasionally. The Cuban government is very supportive of this operation as aircraft reconnaissance information is the main source of information to them before the storm makes landfall.

Quoting roberie:

In the late 90's and early 00's I remember being on commercial flights going to Montigo Bay, Jamaica and we overflew Cuba every time. I am sure the airlines had permission granted to do that.


Last I checked, there are agreements in place for the commerical overflights going to the Carribean that overfly the Island and Cuba receives a "fee" for each overflight flight (probalby related to the fuel cost savings by not having to divert around the Island)......A source of revenue for the Cuban Government but I don't remember what the amount is at the moment.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




The very slight adjustment to the left of the forecast track, if correct, could save us here on Provo from the very worst of the winds.


Yeah, good luck up there in the Turks and Caicos Islands. But, there is some silver lining as Tomas may actually start weakening a bit before reaching the area. Are you ready to ride this one out?
Quoting NEwxguy:
10. unruly 2:09 PM GMT on November 05, 2010

Poof!!!!
WOW!!! thank you very much!! your the first meatball to POOF!!! me in public...i hope you enjoyed it :) was it fun to waste your time??
Post 56 - Loved the picks Jeff.

New little burst near CoC (15:15z)

Click For Animation
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


I'll post whatever the hell I feel like it! Haiti seems to be getting just some heavy rain right now as Tomas appears to be weakening.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/NCHurricane2009/show.html

Latest sat. frame on my blog shows Tomas looking even less impressive. Yep, no way this storm is strengthening right now.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Post 56 - Loved the picks Jeff.

New little burst near CoC (15:15z)



Yeah, but looking at the bigger picture IMO, the storm looks much less circular and more elongated, as if the deep trough over the eastern US is beginning to disrupt it.
Quoting reedzone:


Sure he says that now, but he kept bashing me for my opinions, ignore this jerk. I gave him many chances to be this nice as he is now, too late.


Talking about Baratopic, not you NCHurricane, you're an excellent blogger
It appears that with the demise of Tomas the 2010 season will come to an end. Early indications are hinting at an average to below average 2011.
Quoting reedzone:


Sure he says that now, but he kept bashing me for my opinions, ignore this jerk. I gave him many chances to be this nice as he is now, too late.


I didn't mean to bash anyone's opinions. I would have said too that Tomas was going to really strengthen till I checked the lastest sat. imagery. I am sorry if I came off as a jerk in any way.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, but looking at the bigger picture IMO, the storm looks much less circular and more elongated, as if the deep trough over the eastern US is beginning to disrupt it.

Right now, yes. But upper-level conditions 24 hours out favor some strengthening.
21L/H/T/C1
MARK
18.76N/74.11W

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It appears that with the demise of Tomas the 2010 season will come to an end. Early indications are hinting at an average to below average 2011.


I disagree, I think 2011 will be above average due to a weakening La Nina to Neutral conditions. The upper level winds may not be as strong and we're gonna have to see how the currents when the season comes. I also think we have one more Subtropical storm to grab out of 2010. It's La Nina, late season cutt off lows in the Atlantic are very likely.
Quoting reedzone:


Talking about Baratopic, not you NCHurricane, you're an excellent blogger


LOL, I hit the panic button thinking that I was being a jerk.

Its all really interesting to watch, and read all the opinions. This stuff if really hard to predict.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It appears that with the demise of Tomas the 2010 season will come to an end. Early indications are hinting at an average to below average 2011.

I think Tomas will be the last named storm of 2010.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I didn't mean to bash anyone's opinions. I would have said too that Tomas was going to really strengthen till I checked the lastest sat. imagery. I am sorry if I came off as a jerk in any way.


No no, not you.. I meant Baratropic. Your an excellent blogger, sorry should have worded that better.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
21L/H/T/C2
MARK
18.76N/74.11W



This ain't good to watch
Quoting reedzone:


I disagree, I think 2011 will be above average due to a weakening La Nina to Neutral conditions. The upper level winds may not be as strong and we're gonna have to see how the currents when the season comes. I also think we have one more Subtropical storm to grab out of 2010. It's La Nina, late season cutt off lows in the Atlantic are very likely.


Models are showing a rainy mid to late November. Not very characteristic of La Nina. A deep trough in the mid section of US could be really good news rain wise in FL come later next weekend.
good evening aussie long time no type
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I think Tomas will be the last named storm of 2010.

I think we could see one more.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I think Tomas will be the last named storm of 2010.


I would say that if we had El Nino, but La Nina is known to get cutt off lows in the Atlantic to turn Subtropical, think of 2005 and 1995 late in the season. I think we have one more name to go, possibly 2 names.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I think Tomas will be the last named storm of 2010.


That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Speaking of 2011, are there any official webistes or publications that talk about some predictions?
The SHIPS intensity forecast (12z) for 24 hours out favors some very condusive conditions aloft along with a pretty rich, moisture laden mid-level environment for the next 12 hours that should allow Tomas a run at category 2 strength within the next 24 hours with no problem.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24

SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 12 9
700-500 MB RH 75 74 67 60 48
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Speaking of 2011, are there any official webistes or publications that talk about some predictions?


Jeff said on the radio the other day, he suspects we will have at least one more.
Tomas looks to be on a more N path and convection continues to wane.

Great news for Haiti.


Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Speaking of 2011, are there any official webistes or publications that talk about some predictions?
well some outlooks start coming out in late dec but its way to early maybe by early april before you really get a handle on things to come for 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Right now, yes. But upper-level conditions 24 hours out favor some strengthening.


I like to zoom out and take a look at this picture, check this out:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4.html

If you click on the HDW-H box during the animation, you can see the latest upper-level winds (sat. derived).

The outflow west of center (according to the vectors) doesn't looks as good as east of center. The outflow is still definitely there, but conditions for development have gone from super favorable (yesterday) to, mmmm...good but not great for development.

But Tomas seems to be ailing a bit from the outflow blockage west of center.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


That wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

Speaking of 2011, are there any official webistes or publications that talk about some predictions?

I've honestly have not done any research on that yet. I am sure there are many out there; I unfortunately can't point you in that direction right now.
Quoting reedzone:


Sure he says that now, but he kept bashing me for my opinions, ignore this jerk. I gave him many chances to be this nice as he is now, too late.


835. barotropic 11:31 AM GMT on November 05, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
At this point, I would say we are going to see this current rate of intensification continue today into tonight and for Tomas to peak at 105 to 110 mph, so interests in the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands better prepare for a Category 2 hurricane and possibly a Category 3 hurricane if Tomas strengthens quicker than is currently expected.

Barotropic replied @ 11:31gmt
Actually IMO only, it looks like Tomas is nearing peak intensity and is in the process of moving NE at an increasing rate of speed. I dont think we will see anymore significant increase in intensity. Its already a big problem for those in the path. I think in the next 6 - 8 hours we will begin to see the trof begin to take its toll on the west side of Tomas as sheer becomes an increasing factor. Time will tell.........


Actually, Reezone I said it earlier this morning long before you even came on the blog.......so what do you mean "yeah he says it now"...I said it when TOMAS was looking his best........so whats wrong with that.
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Information from the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in the Frequently Asked Questions link.

Q. Does Cuba Permit or Even Support Operations When the Storm is over the Island?

A. Cuba does permit operations by both NOAA and the US Air Force Reserves in its territorial waters when a hurricane is in the vicinity of the Island. Both units operate for the most part outside the 12-mile limit, although NOAA have been permitted to operate over land occasionally. The Cuban government is very supportive of this operation as aircraft reconnaissance information is the main source of information to them before the storm makes landfall.



Good job. I knew eventually the facts would get in the way of the ego wars and back biting.
Quoting Seastep:
Tomas looks to be on a more N path and convection continues to wane.

Great news for Haiti.



the worst part of Tomas is the NE quadrant, which has past over Haiti if you watch the loop i posted before.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Jeff said on the radio the other day, he suspects we will have at least one more.


Its really hard to gauge. I know during La Nina seasons like this, its easier to have a super late over even out of season storm. Most recent example of that was Olga 2007, in December. It wouldn't surprise me too if Dr. M is right.

One thing's for sure, lets hope that the next storm (if it happens) is not in the Caribbean. Cut them some slack mother nature. I mean, they've had Otto, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas! Wow!
Morning all, well I sure hope Haiti is speared the worse and I hope Tomas is the last for the Season.BNF
My thoughts go out to those in path and wake of Tomas. The slower he moves along, most likely will increase the human suffering.

A good many were arguing about or discussing this yesterday; now CNN lead story, amazing.

Debunking the myth: The cost ... trip to Asia
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:

TampaSpin, I commented a few days ago on your attack on Orca, I cannot swear here but in a kind way of saying it"What in the heck are you doing"
Orca DID NOT say what you said he said.
It's like you are talking out your ñz¿«£ now
Sorry to just be replying to your post but was away from the computer. People understand things the way they want to. I understood Orca's post to mean they do fly in Cuban airspace.. Not saying they don't need permission.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I like to zoom out and take a look at this picture, check this out:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4.html

If you click on the HDW-H box during the animation, you can see the latest upper-level winds (sat. derived).

The outflow west of center (according to the vectors) doesn't looks as good as east of center. The outflow is still definitely there, but conditions for development have gone from super favorable (yesterday) to, mmmm...good but not great for development.

But Tomas seems to be ailing a bit from the outflow blockage west of center.

He definitely is feeling the effects of the southwesterly upper-level flow from the deep multi-layer trough that will be his primary steering. However, the mid-level dry air expected to be ushered in will be beyond the 12 hour frame, and if he can split the gap, I still think a run at category 2 intensity is conceivable, but likely.

The SHIPS (12z) intensity forecast 24 hours out still depicts very favorable conditions aloft along with a relatively rich, moisture laden mid-level for the immediate future. His time is running out though.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24

SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 12 9
700-500 MB RH 75 74 67 60 48
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its really hard to gauge. I know during La Nina seasons like this, its easier to have a super late over even out of season storm. Most recent example of that was Olga 2007, in December. It wouldn't surprise me too if Dr. M is right.

One thing's for sure, lets hope that the next storm (if it happens) is not in the Caribbean. Cut them some slack mother nature. I mean, they've had Otto, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas! Wow!

Some models are predicting another system next week in the Caribbean.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Some models are predicting another system next week in the Caribbean.

Really? Link please?
Quoting LightningCharmer:
My thoughts go out to those in path and wake of Tomas. The slower he moves along, most likely will increase the human suffering.

A good many were arguing about or discussing this yesterday; now CNN lead story, amazing.

Debunking the myth: The cost ... trip to Asia


I know at least at The Weather Channel, Jim Cantore is in Port-Au-Prince. Anything live from Jim I wonder.
Quoting AussieStorm:

the worst part of Tomas is the NE quadrant, which has past over Haiti if you watch the loop i posted before.


NE is where it has waned the most. Winds stronger there, but not a lot of precip from the sat presentation:



Edited: RAMSDIS is down.
116. Nice play on words there!
The eye wall is now better structured
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I've honestly have not done any research on that yet. I am sure there are many out there; I unfortunately can't point you in that direction right now.


This article, although several years old now, is a good start:

SEASONAL FORECASTING
OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY

Christopher W. Landsea
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

Paul W. Mielke, Jr.
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University

Kenneth J. Berry
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University

Weather 49, 273-284, (1994)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


This article, although several years old now, is a good start:

SEASONAL FORECASTING
OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY

Christopher W. Landsea
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

William M. Gray
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

Paul W. Mielke, Jr.
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University

Kenneth J. Berry
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University

Weather 49, 273-284, (1994)

Thank you.
21L/H/T/C1
MARK
19.10N/73.97W

meanwhile.....back at the ranch..........

RAMDIS back up:

Three hours ago:



Now:



Seems to become thin (and weaker) - a thread, that fits through the needle of the passage between the islands.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Its really hard to gauge. I know during La Nina seasons like this, its easier to have a super late over even out of season storm. Most recent example of that was Olga 2007, in December. It wouldn't surprise me too if Dr. M is right.

One thing's for sure, lets hope that the next storm (if it happens) is not in the Caribbean. Cut them some slack mother nature. I mean, they've had Otto, Matthew, Nicole, Paula, Richard, and Tomas! Wow!



With a strong La Nina in place, it is very possible to see late/post season activity.

1988/89 featured a strong La Nina and both featured November storms. 1989 featured the longest storm ever tracked, lol. I wonder if it is a mistake?

Prayers for the people of Haiti as Tomas passes through..Southern Bahamas you're next, be PREPARED!!!

Quoting barbamz:


Seems to become thin (and weaker) - a thread, that fits through the needle of the passage between the islands.
Yes, but the result of core mostly avoiding land mass is prolonging Tomas' strength...and training, flooding rains...always a flip side, I reckon.
Quoting remembercleo:
Yes, but the result of core mostly avoiding land mass is prolonging Tomas' strength...and training, flooding rains...always a flip side, I reckon.

AMY - Did you ever find your fork?

Welp. Tomas did for the most part what the NHC said he would do (as far as track)...

HurricaneTomas's heading turned eastward to (1.5degrees north of) NorthEast
from it's previous heading of (7.3degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
H.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~9.3mph(~15km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~16.7mph(~26.8km/h)
TS.Tomas
4Nov 03pmGMT - 16.3n76.1w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 996mb - NHC.Adv.#26
4Nov 06pmGMT - 16.4n76.2w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 996mb - NHC.Adv.#26A
4Nov 09pmGMT - 16.6n76.0w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 995mb - NHC.Adv.#27
5Nov 12amGMT - 16.9n75.9w - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#27A
5Nov 03amGMT - 17.3n75.5w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28
5Nov 06amGMT - 17.9n75.3w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28A
H.Tomas
5Nov 09amGMT - 18.1n74.9w - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - 984mb - NHC.Adv.#29
5Nov 12pmGMT - 18.8n74.7w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#2
5Nov 03pmGMT - 19.1n74.4w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30

Copy&paste 16.3n76.1w-16.4n76.2w, 16.4n76.2w-16.6n76.0w, 16.6n76.0w-16.9n75.9w, 16.9n75.9w-17.3n75.5w, 17.3n75.5w-17.9n75.3w, 17.9n75.3w-18.1n74.9w, 18.1n74.9w-18.8n74.7w, 18.8n74.7w-19.1n74.4w, gcm, nbw, gdt, 19.1n74.4w-21.71n71.73w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.
Add 19.1n74.4w-19.7n73.5w for the straightline distance to Mole Saint-Nicolas, Haiti on the WindwardPassage.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
1day&1hour from now to MiddleCaicosIsland on line to Lorimers
~7 hours from now to WindwardPassage

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
OK, some of us have to pretend to go to work (check up on the kid and make sure I am not in the poor house)

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
A couple of friends of my family in Port AU Prince are saying they have recieved about 4 inches of rain and flooding does not appear to be a big deal so far. So far good news coming out of Port AU Prince. My Granddad is a engineer for Coca Cola and he works at the plant there in Haiti and things appear to going pretty good not as bad as first thought atleast in Port AU Prince.
Dak.... no, I did not.... I seriously didn't think I would need it anymore.... silly me....
Quoting Jeff9641:
A couple of friends of my family in Port AU Prince are saying they have recieved about 4 inches of rain and flooding does not appear to be a big deal so far. So far good news coming out of Port AU Prince. My Granddad is a engineer for Coca Cola and he works at ther plant there in Haiti and things appear to going pretty good not as bad as first thought atleast in Port AU Prince.
Just pray it continues like that.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, November 5th, with Video


Great, Levi. Thanks as always. Really "the heck of a trough" ...
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just pray it continues like that.


Yeah on and off rain some heavy at times in eastern Haiti and it looks as if the worst may be passing them.
As Tomas pulls away from both the mile-high mountains running along Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula and the Nipe-Saugua-Baracoa mountains in southeastern Cuba, he appears to be regaining some of the intensity he lost: there's a new burst of convection right at the center as warm moist air is allowed to be once again pulled into the eye from all quadrants, but especially the southeast and the west.It remains to be seen, however, whether that new convection can regrow the heavy CDO that was apparent this morning, especially since Tomas is already being wind-flattened on his left side.

He's been an interesting one to watch. I only hope any news from the islands isn't as grim as originally feared...
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, November 5th, with Video


Thanks......very informative and that is indeed an amazing trof.......
Quoting reedzone:
Alot of immaturity on this blog, it's ridiculious.. Grown ups acting like kids that bully people for making their predictions on a prediction blog. Whatever, moving on..


Exactly.
Quoting NRAamy:
SQUAWK is not a stalker. He's a squawker.


Ya got there before me. The line I was thinking of. LOL
Tomas looks like he peaked earlier this morning. He has another chance to get to Cat 2 tonight. I would say in the next 36 hours Tomas has a 50% chance of peaking at Cat 1, 45% at Cat 2 and 5% at Cat 3.

Turks and Caicos could have a nasty parting shot.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
CYCLONIC STORM JAL (BOB05-2010)
17:30 PM IST November 5 2010
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Jal moved northwestward and lays near 9.5N 87.0E, or about 600 km east of Trincomalee, 800 km east southeast of Chennai, and 1000 km southeast of Visakhapatnam.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The central pressure is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is very high around the system's center.

Animation of past 24 hrs insat imagery indicates increase in deep convection and cloud mass is more organized. The Dvorak intensity if T2.5. The cloud dense overcast with well defined banding features. Intense to very intense convection around the system center and broken intense to very intense convection between 5.5N to 15.0N and 83.0E to 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C to -85C.

Current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system could intensify further and moves west northwestward, crossing north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Nellore close to Chennai by Sunday evening/night.

Forecast and intensity
========================
6 HRS: 9.5N 86.5E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 10.0N 86.0E - 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.5N 83.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. 24 hour tendency of vertical wind shear shows negative over north of the system. Sea surface temperature is 29-30C and the ocean heat content over south Bay of bengal 90-100 kj/cm2, which is favorable for intensification. The relative vorticity at 850 HPA level is 140-16*10-5S-1) and upper level divergence around the system center is (20*10-5S-1) which is also favorable for intensification. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 15.0N at 200 HPA level.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, November 5th, with Video



Quoting barotropic:


Thanks......very informative and that is indeed an amazing trof.......
>Tropical Tidbit for Friday, November 5th, with Video


Yes, thanks Levi.

In the near term..what are the chances that the northerly surge you spoke of will serve to bring enough energy to develop the gyrous moisture mass it inevitably will leave behind in the S.Caribbean? Something like how the effect of southern extension a cold front can sometimes spur cyclogenesis.


177. Jax82
Some extremely dry air over FL! Feels great outside. Hence why there are red flag warnings for 3/4th of the State.

Quoting MahFL:
So much for the hype of Haiti is doomed.....


Friends of the family that live in Port AU Prince are saying so far so good. Really not a big deal.
Does Haiti have a meteorological agency with a web page?
Quoting Jax82:
Some extremely dry air over FL! Feels great outside. Hence why there are red flag warnings for 3/4th of the State.



Saw some strong storms on radar over JAX yesterday so I was wondering how much rain ya'll picked up.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



With a strong La Nina in place, it is very possible to see late/post season activity.

1988/89 featured a strong La Nina and both featured November storms. 1989 featured the longest storm ever tracked, lol. I wonder if it is a mistake?



Haha november to june 1989? So this storm Karen went back in time.
Quoting MahFL:
So much for the hype of Haiti is doomed.....

Remember, the absence of news of casualties is not necessarily indicative of an absence of casualties, just as a report from one or two people in a lightly-hit area is not proof that all people in all areas are safe. If you've paid attention to natural disasters, you've likely noted a very common thread: anecdotal reports immediately following an event--or, as here, during one--are extremely prone to errors in under-reporting. IOW, while I hope we can all sing a happy tune when this is over, it's far too early to be breaking out the bubbly...

(Examples -- News reports after Katrina: "The city appears to have come through very well!" After Andrew: "Other than some broken tree branches and power outages, South Florida looks to have escaped the brunt of the damage." After the 2004 tsunami: "The worst damage seems to have been confined just to the coast in some sparsely-populated resort areas." After the 2010 Haitian quake: "There may be hundreds of deaths, and early reports are that fatalities may be close to a thousand or more.")
So what do you all think, is this the last one for the season ?
Quoting PELLSPROG:
So what do you all think, is this the last one for the season ?


I think one or two more.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Remember, the absence of news of casualties is not necessarily indicative of an absence of casualties, just as a report from one family living in a lightly-hit area is not proof that everyone is safe. If you've watched one natural disaster, you've likely noted a very common thread: anecdotal reports immediately following an event--or, as here, during one--are extremely prone to errors in under-reporting. IOW, while I hope we can all sing a happy tune when this is over, it's fat too early to be breaking out the bubbly...


That is very correct! I've heard nothing from the western tip of Haiti and that area got blasted earlier today.
186. Jax82
Quoting Jeff9641:


Saw some strong storms on radar over JAX yesterday so I was wondering how much rain ya'll picked up.


Yeah we got a good soaking here, total Craig airport nearby from Nov 2-4 was 4.39 inches. Its only a few miles from my place, and my pool filled up about that much, lol. My grass is thankful :)
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


I think one or two more.

hmmmm maybe
Quoting PELLSPROG:
So what do you all think, is this the last one for the season ?

Possible, but I doubt it. 2005 saw four more storms after this date (after a nearly three-week lull), so I don't see any reason 2010 won't have at least one or two more.
Just sneaking through the passage. Rain banding now hits DR at most.
And a new HH mission is on the way.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Possible, but I doubt it. 2005 saw four more storms after this date (after a nearly three-week lull), so I don't see any reason 2010 won't have at least one or two more.

true and this year`s hurricane season most of the storm activity have come in the latter part of the year.
An interesting link about the lack of presence of the Haitian government on the web.

Link
P au P was not in direct danger....Jeremie and Les Cayes are the places to watch...
I think that people in Haiti should be removed and start all over again in a new piece of land because this one is not safe at all.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I think that people in Haiti should be removed and start all over again in a new piece of land because this one is not safe at all.


Where?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Where?


I really don't know but USA could find one for them and then start the rehabilitation process of the land in Haiti.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
An interesting link about the lack of presence of the Haitian government on the web.

Link

just goes to show how long that nation has been neglected.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051748
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 74.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Quoting Jeff9641:


Friends of the family that live in Port AU Prince are saying so far so good. Really not a big deal.
Tell me, do these "friends of the family" live in one of the refugee camps?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


I can't let something so asinine go by w/o challenge. Are you serious?


yes, I'm serious. I know this is a revolutionary idea but I think is good for Haitian People. They need to restore so many things, starting by the land, they need to plant millions of trees, they need to restore the water system and lots of other things.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


yes, I'm serious. I know this is a revolutionary idea but I think is good for Haitian People. They need to restore so many things, starting by the land, they need to plant millions of trees, they need to restore the water system and lots of other things.


Well, why don't we relocate them to PR? It's much closer.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Well, why don't we relocate them to PR? It's much closer.


It's ok with me.
Ship reports indicate a steady 35knot nnw wind with a steady pressure of 29.83
and 82F water temps..near 12N/78W

4 observations from 11/05/2010 1400 GMT to 11/05/2010 1752 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm %uFFFDT %uFFFDT kts kts ft sec sec %uFFFDT in in %uFFFDF %uFFFDF %uFFFDF nmi 8th ft ft sec %uFFFDT ft sec %uFFFDT Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
SHIP S 1700 15.20 -78.90 199 345 350 35.0 - 9.8 10.0 - - 29.83 - 84.2 82.4 - 2 7 - - - 50 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
1 observations reported for 1700 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm %uFFFDT %uFFFDT kts kts ft sec sec %uFFFDT in in %uFFFDF %uFFFDF %uFFFDF nmi 8th ft ft sec %uFFFDT ft sec %uFFFDT Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
SHIP S 1500 9.80 -79.20 150 208 280 7.0 - 1.6 5.0 - - 29.93 0.06 77.0 82.4 73.6 11 8 - 3.3 7.0 10 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 1500 14.60 -78.50 159 349 350 35.0 - 9.8 9.0 - - 29.83 - 82.4 80.6 - 2 8 - - - 50 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
2 observations reported for 1500 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm %uFFFDT %uFFFDT kts kts ft sec sec %uFFFDT in in %uFFFDF %uFFFDF %uFFFDF nmi 8th ft ft sec %uFFFDT ft sec %uFFFDT Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
SHIP S 1400 14.30 -78.30 139 353 350 35.0 - 9.8 10.0 - - 29.83 - 80.6 78.8 - 5 8 - - - 50 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
1 observations reported for 1400 GMT
Quoting lhwhelk:
Tell me, do these "friends of the family" live in one of the refugee camps?


No they do not as they are some of the few wealthly.
good afternoon all!!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Possible, but I doubt it. 2005 saw four more storms after this date (after a nearly three-week lull), so I don't see any reason 2010 won't have at least one or two more.
I am going with one hurricane and one tropical storm before 2011...
Quoting Jeff9641:


No they do not as they are some of the few wealthly.
So I assumed. Therefore they have no idea about whether everything is well with "the lower classes." People who have lost everything and are living in refugee camps are the most likely to be affected by Tomas.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


It's ok with me.


Ok, you find homes and jobs for 9.6 million souls. Let us know when you've got that worked out.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Ok, you find homes and jobs for 9.6 million souls. Let us know when you've got that worked out.


Do you want to help ?
Quoting winter123:


Haha november to june 1989? So this storm Karen went back in time.


Yes, it was indeed a mistake. I found it rather humorous, lol. The actual Storm Karen.

Low 50s tonight in SFL..brrr...too cold for me.

Wasn't somone saying that there was supposed to be another system next week in the Caribbean? Is that still what's expected?

2010 JUST about past 1969 in ACE...

1969 - 158 ACE
2010 - 157 ACE

Oh, and the current ACE rankings of season since the 1995 season:

2005 - 248
1995 - 228
2004 - 225
1998 - 182
1999 - 197
2003 - 175
1996 - 166
2010 - 157
2008 - 144
2000 - 116
2001 - 106
2006 - 79
2007 - 72
2002 - 65
2009 - 51
1997 - 40

had a low of 48 this morning coolest morning of the fall season.
Quoting LoveThemCanes:
Low 50s tonight in SFL..brrr...too cold for me.

Wasn't somone saying that there was supposed to be another system next week in the Caribbean? Is that still what's expected?



With such a strong / deep trough in place, it is highly possible for some energy to get left behind. Something to watch out for anyway, La Nina increases the chances of late / post season development via lower shear. SST's may further increase the odds.
47 tomorrow morning in Jupiter, FL.
Quoting LoveThemCanes:
Low 50s tonight in SFL..brrr...too cold for me.

Wasn't somone saying that there was supposed to be another system next week in the Caribbean? Is that still what's expected?

Yes...Low 50,s cold.....HAAaaaaaaaa!!!!It was 32 here last night. ..It is suppose to get down to 24 with the chance of flurries tonight..
those temps in FL are nice. who wants to change places? I live in Puerto Rico where is very very warm :o)
Looks to me like the convection in the southwest Caribbean sea is getting left behind per the loop.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
47 tomorrow morning in Jupiter, FL.
The cold weather in Florida posts are lifting my spirits....If yall had some rain to help the dry conditions, the cooler temps would probably be welcome...
even cooler tonight here in south tx low-mid 40's :o
Yea I know - busiest Ive ever seen it in november.
233. xcool
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
69.1 °F
Clear
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 29 °F
Wind: 12.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 30.22 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Quoting 21N71W:
What has happened to this blog???????????


ROFLMAO, good to see you back...and I see your playing target for systems again,
236. xcool
Nov 5, 2010 1:25 PM Temp

57.8°F slidell la
Look how fast the trough picks up all the tropical moisture...
chilly
Quoting hydrus:
Look how fast the trough picks up all the tropical moisture...geez look at the explosion of dry hiting the gom just like that.
Quoting hydrus:
The cold weather in Florida posts are lifting my spirits....If yall had some rain to help the dry conditions, the cooler temps would probably be welcome...


Don't let yourself get too excited there, Old One.

I like the cooler weather. How are things?
Recon data in the center
Time: 18:16:00Z
Coordinates: 19.8N 74.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.2 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,048 meters (~ 10,000 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 988.7 mb (~ 29.20 inHg)
Haiti post storm infection and outbreak potential:

Diarrhea, dengue, malaria, and leptospirosis pose the greatest risk to in Haiti after Hurricane Tomas. Diarrhea risk will be immediate and substantial. Peer-reviewed literature has demonstrated increased West Nile virus activity following Hurricane Katrina and therefore should be considered as well in Haiti.  Persons in contact with rivers, streams, or standing water will be at risk for leptospirosis. The already poor sanitation very likely will be further degraded by the storm.  Bacterial and protozoal diarrhea rates could more than double among those relief personnel consuming local food, water, or ice. Typhoid fever and hepatitis A could cause a small number of cases among unvaccinated personnel.

Torrential rainfall will suppress malaria and dengue risk for 3 to 4 weeks by destroying vector breeding sites. Initially, malaria and dengue cases are expected to be rare but risk will rise as mosquito populations rebound. In the absence of countermeasures, increased numbers of cases are possible in areas of historical transmission; in densely populated urban areas, dengue rates could increase within weeks. The fact that winter and the drier season is approaching should limit transmission however.



Possible ways a storm could worsen the current cholera situation:

1. Increase crowding and poor hygiene. People will be taken from tent
cites and concentrated in hurricane safe structures. Contamination of
food and water by direct human interaction.
2. Flooding could contaminate water sources and food/crop resource areas.
3. Wind can blow contaminated water and materials into water supplies and area with consumables.
4. Wind can spread the infection itself by blowing infected microorganisms into new water resource areas.
5. Flooding associated with tropical systems can create regional algal blooms of organisms susceptible to cholera infection thereby infecting nearly all the ocean resources of a large area.


The primary carrier of Dengue is the Aedes aegypti (others species in Haiti also carry it) it lives about a month and its constrained by its larvas susceptibility to temperature extremes. Larvae die at temperatures below 10 degrees and above 44 degrees Celsius. (50-111F)
53 this morning here north of Orlando and supposed to get to 44 tonight but this cool wx isn't lasting long as highs in the 80's on Tuesday return then mid 80's end of next week.
21L/TS/T/Cx
MARK
19.46N/73.69W



overtaken by front
Highest winds so far
ime: 18:24:30Z
Coordinates: 20.05N 73.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.8 mb (~ 20.61 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,049 meters (~ 10,003 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.5 mb (~ 29.43 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 164° at 60 knots (From the SSE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 8.2°C (~ 46.8°F)
Dew Pt: 5.2°C (~ 41.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 16 mm/hr (~ 0.63 in/hr)
46 this morning in Panama City Beach and 60 currently. Forecast low for tonight 39. Unseasonably cool.
still a cane
it was the first time I saw such a rain here in curacao, in many houses the water was more than 1 meter(3 ft) high, in schools, even in hospitals and in many stores,busines. We had two death, one in a car and one was a member of
team who help to rescue people. This gentleman after recued a lady of 73 years, he went to another place to help other people and was lost of sight. They found him in the morning, death. Many stores and malls were full of water and al mercandise has been lost.Many but many houses were under water. Now we are doing all we can to help our people. I heard from my brother, he lives in Aruba, that Aruba was also under water. Bonaire was better off. I did my best to put this on paper and will try to keep on doing it.
I will also try to put some pictures because I have a lot
And I suppose, Jeff9641 it ain't "animal dancing" if white people do it, right?
Are you totally incapable of speaking without being HIGHly insulting.

There ain't a single penny being "corrupt"ed outta Haiti without STRONG support from FirstWorld bankers and the FirstWorld governments they buy.
248 Unbelievable. No comment - Ill be in my blog.
HurricaneTomas's heading turned northward to (5.9degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
from it's previous heading of (1.5degrees north of) NorthEast
H.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~18.3mph(~29.5km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~9.3mph(~15km/h
TS.Tomas
4Nov 06pmGMT - 16.4n76.2w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 996mb - NHC.Adv.#26A
4Nov 09pmGMT - 16.6n76.0w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 995mb - NHC.Adv.#27
5Nov 12amGMT - 16.9n75.9w - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - - 993mb - NHC.Adv.#27A
5Nov 03amGMT - 17.3n75.5w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28
5Nov 06amGMT - 17.9n75.3w - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - 989mb - NHC.Adv.#28A
H.Tomas
5Nov 09amGMT - 18.1n74.9w - 80mph(~128.7km/h) - 984mb - NHC.Adv.#29
5Nov 12pmGMT - 18.8n74.7w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#2
5Nov 03pmGMT - 19.1n74.4w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30
5Nov 06pmGMT - 19.8n74.0w - 85mph(~136.8km/h) - 987mb - NHC.Adv.#30A

Copy&paste 16.4n76.2w, 16.6n76.0w, 16.9n75.9w, 17.3n75.5w, 17.9n75.3w-18.1n74.9w, 18.1n74.9w-18.8n74.7w, 18.8n74.7w-19.1n74.4w, 19.1n74.4w-19.8n74.0w, gcm, iga, gdt, 19.8n74.0w-20.965n73.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~4 hours from now to GreatInagua, Bahamas
~20miles(~32.2kilometres) east of MatthewTown

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:


Don't let yourself get too excited there, Old One.

I like the cooler weather. How are things?
Things are as well as can be expected on my end. Hope you are well.....Whats this old one stuff.?...You know full well that statement belongs in Grothars column...;)
Quoting aspectre:
And I suppose, Jeff9641 it ain't "animal dancing" if white people do it, right?
Are you totally incapable of speaking without being HIGHly insulting.

And there ain't a single penny being "corrupt"ed outta Haiti without STRONG support from FirstWorldBankers and the FirstWorld governments they buy.


Well then you haven't been there have you? I can tell you first hand that all the many millions of dollars donated has not made it to the people. The only way people are getting help are by the on ground operations such as Portlight which has done so much to help out Haiti and the Red Cross.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Unbelievable. No comment - Ill be in my blog.


It's best to not say anything, I should have kept my mouth shut this morning. I probably ended up on more ignore lists. I really wish this blog would just go back to the way it was in 2007-2008. Have a good day JFlorida, I'm off to work.
Quoting curacaoweather:
it was the first time I saw such a rain here in curacao, in many houses the water was more than 1 meter(3 ft) high, in schools, even in hospitals and in many stores,busines. We had two death, one in a car and one was a member of
team who help to rescue people. This gentleman after recued a lady of 73 years, he went to another place to help other people and was lost of sight. They found him in the morning, death. Many stores and malls were full of water and al mercandise has been lost.Many but many houses were under water. Now we are doing all we can to help our people. I heard from my brother, he lives in Aruba, that Aruba was also under water. Bonaire was better off. I did my best to put this on paper and will try to keep on doing it.
I will also try to put some pictures because I have a lot


Sorry to hear this. But thank you for posting!
Quoting curacaoweather:
it was the first time I saw such a rain here in curacao, in many houses the water was more than 1 meter(3 ft) high, in schools, even in hospitals and in many stores,busines. We had two death, one in a car and one was a member of
team who help to rescue people. This gentleman after recued a lady of 73 years, he went to another place to help other people and was lost of sight. They found him in the morning, death. Many stores and malls were full of water and al mercandise has been lost.Many but many houses were under water. Now we are doing all we can to help our people. I heard from my brother, he lives in Aruba, that Aruba was also under water. Bonaire was better off. I did my best to put this on paper and will try to keep on doing it.
I will also try to put some pictures because I have a lot


I will be in Bonaire in a week and will report back if anything of interest is noted regarding Tomas effects.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:


It's ok with me.


Except it might not be OK with the people of Puerto Rico.
tks reed - have a good day. It goes in cycles here - you got to catch it just right. I make that same mistake a lot but sourced material and positive comments will never come back to haunt you ive found. 
Quoting 21N71W:
What has happened to this blog???????????


Gone nuts.
Fotos from Inagua, where Tomas is going to spend a visit (I've never heard of these islands before):
http://www.xpda.com/caribbean/inagua/
I like that 2PM GFS track for Tomas. It recurves it around like it's going to come back for a second pass through the Caribbean. That would be neat to see.
Wow. Right now it is 60 in Bangor and Eastport Maine and 58 at Keaton Beach, FL. Heat exchange!
Quoting pilotguy1:


Gone nuts.

LMAO
Reedzone I hope you keep on posting about weather. You add to the blog. The bullies don't.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Wow. Right now it is 60 in Bangor and Eastport Maine and 58 at Keaton Beach, FL. Heat exchange!


Yeah they'll be 30 in couple of days while FL is back into the 80's. You guys can keep the 60 as that maybe the last for you guys for several months.
000
URNT12 KNHC 051842 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 05/18:16:10Z
B. 19 deg 48 min N
074 deg 00 min W
C. 700 mb 3014 m
D. 48 kt
E. 218 deg 19 nm
F. 310 deg 45 kt
G. 222 deg 49 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 10 C / 3050 m
J. 15 C / 3055 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 1921A TOMAS OB 04 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 64 KT NE QUAD 18:26:10Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 219 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
I just thought that some places in Maine being warmer than Florida beaches is interesting. No it won't last long. But it is interesting to see how the atmosphere exchanges heat.
Let's see if this image posts.


Not sure how much I trust that graphic since it doesn't show any warm air advection over Maine.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif
Quoting SQUAWK:


Been a member for almost a week now and already an expert on personalities and behaviors on the blog. Quite an accomplishment. But then, that is not your real handle is it.


What I saw today is pretty obvious. Reed is 22, how old are you acting this way?

Quoting SQUAWK:


I knew I would get the age data out of him. LOL He just cannot resist. Bet if I try hard enough I can get address and parents name - not that I care but he is just so damn juvenile about this stuff.
Quoting pilotguy1:


You're a boob.


How childish!LOL
Thank god the season is coming to an end. Some people really need to get off the computer and take a breathe of fresh air.
Hmmm... I wonder is that off to the recording studio, or Super Target?

Anyway it's a nice change here in ECFL... great weekend to catch up on yard work.
Quoting hydrus:
Things are as well as can be expected on my end. Hope you are well.....Whats this old one stuff.?...You know full well that statement belongs in Grothars column...;)



LOL. Glad to hear it. We are well, thanks. Going to get a nice fire going in the pit, to ward off the chill. I wish we'd gotten more precip. 7/10ths was all I got in the gauge.
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif
Done.


Water Vapor TOMAS

Looks like Haiti is currently being spared the worst.

IRLoop
I wonder what the rainfall totals in Haiti are. But from the satellite it looks like inches and not feet.
Quoting NRAamy:
Stalking and saving someones personal information is not acceptable.

isn't that why SSI got banned?


SSI got banned? Had no clue.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



LOL. Glad to hear it. We are well, thanks. Going to get a nice fire going in the pit, to ward off the chill. I wish we'd gotten more precip. 7/10ths was all I got in the gauge.
Sounds good. Would like to throw some charcoal on our grill, but we just had some flurries and ice pellets here...Freeze warnings are up and is going into the low 20,s up on the plateau tonight...Teens above 3500 feet.
Quoting hydrus:
Sounds good. Would like to throw some charcoal on our grill, but we just had some flurries and ice pellets here...Freeze warnings are up and is going into the low 20,s here on the plateau tonight...Teens above 3500 feet.

Brrrr
Looks like there is some need for humanitarian missions to step up to the plate in Haiti.
My point yesterday was the funds should be outsourced to reputable aid agencies who will then account for every dollar.

Time to get to work on this since it appears conditions will continue to worsen post Tomas.

Why is it so difficult to contract humanitarian aid through agencies already there on the ground?!
I don't get it.

Most of Haiti's post-quake homeless live under donated plastic tarps on open fields. Much is private land, where they have been constantly fighting eviction. A September report from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said 29 percent of 1,268 camps studied had been closed forcibly, meaning the often violent relocation of tens of thousands of people.
Link: LinktoNewsArticle

What's the big whoop about paying people to get a job done?! Good grief.


Wow. Talk about Providence. The strongest convection is over the Windward Passage and motion NE is predicted to pick up to 15 mph.
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like Haiti is currently being spared the worst.

IRLoop
Haiti might receive less from Tomas then what was originally feared. A blessing for the people there....They could use a few more blessings in the form of medicine, food, water and some sturdy dwellings down there..
I'm not sure what the best long term solution for Haiti is. The country is so poor and been so corruptly governed for so long that I don't see a way for things to get better there.
Wow! Possibly in the 30's tonight! Interesting early cold snap...the wind is whipping and it's already feeling pretty chilly...have a great weekend everyone!
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like there is some need for humanitarian missions to step up to the plate in Haiti.
My point yesterday was the funds should be outsourced to reputable aid agencies who will then account for every dollar.

Time to get to work on this since it appears conditions will continue to worsen post Tomas.

Why is it so difficult to contract humanitarian aid through agencies already there on the ground?!
I don't get it.

Most of Haiti's post-quake homeless live under donated plastic tarps on open fields. Much is private land, where they have been constantly fighting eviction. A September report from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said 29 percent of 1,268 camps studied had been closed forcibly, meaning the often violent relocation of tens of thousands of people.
Link: LinktoNewsArticle

What's the big whoop about paying people to get a job done?! Good grief.


Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
For Haitian relief organizations, here are three that already have feet on the ground. Lord only knows what kind of devastation Tomas is going to bring to those areas. A credit card donation today could be working on the ground tomorrow.






Haiti Hope Fund


Quoting hydrus:
Haiti might receive less from Tomas then what was originally feared. A blessing for the people there....They could use a few more blessings in the form of medicine, food, water and some sturdy dwellings down there..


Hydrus, the Haitians need good planning more than blessings at this point.

The blessings are waiting for the appropriate agencies to step up to the plate and deliver services.
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like there is some need for humanitarian missions to step up to the plate in Haiti.
My point yesterday was the funds should be outsourced to reputable aid agencies who will then account for every dollar.

Time to get to work on this since it appears conditions will continue to worsen post Tomas.

Why is it so difficult to contract humanitarian aid through agencies already there on the ground?!
I don't get it.

Most of Haiti's post-quake homeless live under donated plastic tarps on open fields. Much is private land, where they have been constantly fighting eviction. A September report from U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said 29 percent of 1,268 camps studied had been closed forcibly, meaning the often violent relocation of tens of thousands of people.
Link: LinktoNewsArticle

What's the big whoop about paying people to get a job done?! Good grief.


That is correct! Lots of the money so far has not made it to the people. Once my granddad gets the pics posted online then I will share them with the WU community.
Quoting Chicklit:


Hydrus, the Haitians need good planning more than blessings at this point.

The blessings are waiting for the appropriate agencies to step up to the plate and deliver services.


Look at post #300
Bailey's Irish Cream w/ a hot cup of coffee may have to replace beer this wknd while watching football.

All time historical points of tropical cyclone origin since 1851 Atlantic, 1949 for E Pacific

Quoting Jeff9641:


That is correct! Lots of the money so far has not made it to the people. Once mt granddad gets the pics posted online then I will share them with the WU community.

The money doesn't go directly to the people.
It has to go to people who will create infrastructure. That means education and training. If you go back to medieval times, they had guilds. You figure out which skill to assign and then they go to those camps and learn. You provide decent shelter, food, and also training so they can build/grow their own. It's not really that complicated. But often the simplest things are the most difficult to realize because people have many other matters on their minds besides the situation at hand.
We need to help Haiti through the earthquake crisis, the cholera crisis, and Hurricane Tomas. But ways have to be found to reforest the country and build up civil institutions and private enterprise so Haitians can develop and prosper through their own efforts, and not be dulled with years and decades of dependency.
Personnel is very important so you hire organizations that are already structured.
This saves a lot of time 'reinventing the wheel.'
Then you listen to them and they tell you what they think needs to be done.
Then you come to an agreement and things start happening.
This is not rocket science.
But it does require experts in the field of critical human services.
Its sad how haiti was the first in the western world to be a democracy, and look how poor they are they have been ruled by so many people who have been elected by the people but just turnd out to be corrupt... So sad.
How about this plan for Haiti? We are shipping all these jobs to China. Give American companies a incentive to put factories in Haiti. Average income is $1300 per year. That works out to around $.50 /hour. We could pay twice that and still be way below the cost of goods from China because Haiti is so much closer. Capitalism actually does work. Let's stop throwing money at the problem and help them to help themselves.
Because if we don't reforest Haiti, if we don't build up efficient and honest civil institutions, and don't have conditions for private enterprise to flourish under the fair rule of law then Haiti will just keep lurching from one disaster to the next.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
We need to help Haiti through the earthquake crisis, the cholera crisis, and Hurricane Tomas. But ways have to be found to reforest the country and build up civil institutions and private enterprise so Haitians can develop and prosper through their own efforts, and not be dulled with years and decades of dependency.


It all starts with the Haitian Government as we can't be there year after year to assist. We have our own problems here stateside.
Quoting pilotguy1:
How about this plan for Haiti? We are shipping all these jobs to China. Give American companies a incentive to put factories in Haiti. Average income is $1300 per year. That works out to around $.50 /hour. We could pay twice that and still be way below the cost of goods from China because Haiti is so much closer. Capitalism actually does work. Let's stop throwing money at the problem and help them to help themselves.

There were clothing factories in Haiti, up and running again, shortly after the quake. I sure would rather buy products made in Haiti than China.
Quoting pilotguy1:
How about this plan for Haiti? We are shipping all these jobs to China. Give American companies a incentive to put factories in Haiti. Average income is $1300 per year. That works out to around $.50 /hour. We could pay twice that and still be way below the cost of goods from China because Haiti is so much closer. Capitalism actually does work. Let's stop throwing money at the problem and help them to help themselves.


That is the most common sense statement I have ever heard on this blog. The Haitian Government needs to take the bull by the horn as well. It can't be just the US shelling out money and it never gets into the hands of the people.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:

There were clothing factories in Haiti, up and running again, shortly after the quake. I sure would rather buy products made in Haiti than China.


Way +1
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:

There were clothing factories in Haiti, up and running again, shortly after the quake. I sure would rather buy products made in Haiti than China.


Coca Cola is there. If other companys jump onboard then this will eliminate alot of the problem in Haiti but are the people willing to help themselves? Reminder their were genocides there what about 2 years ago where masked gangs were going down the streets murdering thousands of people.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:

There were clothing factories in Haiti, up and running again, shortly after the quake. I sure would rather buy products made in Haiti than China.


I just ordered T-Shirts to promote my woodworking blog.. and they were made in Haiti...

Kinda like when I bought all that Chilean wine after the big earthquake there earlier this year... :-)
Quoting pilotguy1:
How about this plan for Haiti? We are shipping all these jobs to China. Give American companies a incentive to put factories in Haiti. Average income is $1300 per year. That works out to around $.50 /hour. We could pay twice that and still be way below the cost of goods from China because Haiti is so much closer. Capitalism actually does work. Let's stop throwing money at the problem and help them to help themselves.
Sounds like a win/win situation if it were to happen. People in this country have been complaining for decades about China,s huge influx of imported goods to this country...There are experts that say China will surpass the U.S. in the economic realm in less than 25 years..With the number of natural resources available to them, and that over a billion population factored in, I am not surprised.
I am seeing numbers as low as $790 average income for Haiti. Even easier for raising their standard of living dramatically. Is their government functioning at all?
Quoting pilotguy1:
I am seeing numbers as low as $790 average income for Haiti. Even easier for raising their standard of living dramatically. Is their government functioning at all?


Some but not much. Man there are so many problems in Haiti that this blog isn't big enough to fit them on.
Political corruption is a common problem in Haiti. The country has consistently ranked as one of the most corrupt nations according to the Corruption Perceptions Index, a measure of perceived political corruption. In 2006, Haiti was ranked as the most corrupt nation out of the 163 that were surveyed for the Index.[4] The International Red Cross reported that Haiti was 155th out of 159 countries in a similar survey of corrupt countries.[5]

This 'splains a lot. sigh.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 19:55Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 19
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 19:28:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°57'N 73°58'W (19.95N 73.9667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the E (93°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,036m (9,961ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 1 nautical miles (1 statute miles) to the W (272°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 120° at 29kts (From the ESE at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:46:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:46:00Z
Displacement of Sfc. Center From Flt. Lvl. Center: Surface center is 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSE (167°) from the flight level center
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SE (143°) from the flight level center
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think we need Poppa Doc back though to make an example so that some of this crime there can subside. Make a couple examples of people then crime will quickly go away and more and more people can be helped.

Bring back Papa Doc, huh? Are you aware that Duvalier murdered an estimated 30,000 political enemies during his reign of terror and corruption? 30,000? Did you know he imprisoned and tortured thousands more? Did you know he stole land from Haiti's poor and gave it to hand-picked members of his militia, all of whom made no salary but enriched themselves through extortion and other crimes? The dictator/president-for-life/voodoo icon/murdering sociopath was one of the biggest pieces of human excrement ever to walk the face of the earth, and you think bringing him back would be a swell way to lower the crime rate? In other words, utilize mass murder as a means of cleaning the place up?

Great plan. You should run that by the powers that be and see what they think...

(Seriously, Jeff, I try to just ignore you most of the time, but as a member here, I don't want casual visitors thinking we're all so given to such ludicrous and illogical statements.)
Quoting shadoclown45:
Its sad how haiti was the first in the western world to be a democracy, and look how poor they are they have been ruled by so many people who have been elected by the people but just turnd out to be corrupt... So sad.


This isn't a political blog.
Yeah, rappers jumping up and down acting all crazy/tribal on TV to raise money was for the birds what they should have done was gotten their butts gone down there to help with the relief efforts. That would have been a great way to channel that energy. Bottline is if the Government doesn't change there then either will the conditions and people can blast me all they want to on here but sometimes the truth hurts.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Bring back Papa Doc, huh? Are you aware that Duvalier murdered an estimated 30,000 political enemies during his reign of terror and corruption? 30,000? Did you know he imprisoned and tortured thousands more? Did you know he stole land from Haiti's poor and gave it to hand-picked members of his militia, all of whom made no salary but enriched themselves through extortion and other crimes? The dictator/president-for-life/voodoo icon/murdering sociopath was one of the biggest pieces of human excrement ever to walk the face of the earth, and you think bringing him back would be a swell way to lower the crime rate? In other words, utilize mass murder as a means of cleaning the place up?

Great plan. You should run that by the powers that be and see what they think...

(Seriously, Jeff, I try to just ignore you most of the time, but as a member here, I don't want casual visitors thinking we're all so given to such ludicrous and illogical statements.)


+1
Quoting ncstorm:
After reading some of the the comments, I thought Rand Paul was blogging..ridiculous ignorant statements..

Haitians will need more help than ever, my prayers are with them!


Exactly.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


What I saw today is pretty obvious. Reed is 22, how old are you acting this way?

Quoting SQUAWK:


I knew I would get the age data out of him. LOL He just cannot resist. Bet if I try hard enough I can get address and parents name - not that I care but he is just so damn juvenile about this stuff.


Reed has taken enough criticism from enough people on here to last a day, stop bashing reed, he just wants to learn more about weather just like the rest of us. This comment isn't directed to you dover but anyone who has criticized reed. Believe me, I've been teased before, and I'm sure everyone of you has been made fun of as well, so treat others the way you want to be treated.
333, 331 and 328 agreed.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Bring back Papa Doc, huh? Are you aware that Duvalier murdered an estimated 30,000 political enemies during his reign of terror and corruption? 30,000? Did you know he imprisoned and tortured thousands more? Did you know he stole land from Haiti's poor and gave it to hand-picked members of his militia, all of whom made no salary but enriched themselves through extortion and other crimes? The dictator/president-for-life/voodoo icon/murdering sociopath was one of the biggest pieces of human excrement ever to walk the face of the earth, and you think bringing him back would be a swell way to lower the crime rate? In other words, utilize mass murder as a means of cleaning the place up?

Great plan. You should run that by the powers that be and see what they think...

(Seriously, Jeff, I try to just ignore you most of the time, but as a member here, I don't want casual visitors thinking we're all so given to such ludicrous and illogical statements.)


All I can say is that my family never had to worry about crime when Poppa Doc was around. That is what i was referencing. I don't know what he did while in power and maybe it was fullish of me to make an analogy like that but I meant crime wise. You can't even walk down the street now without getting mugged, rapped, or even killed.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Bring back Papa Doc, huh? Are you aware that Duvalier murdered an estimated 30,000 political enemies during his reign of terror and corruption? 30,000? Did you know he imprisoned and tortured thousands more? Did you know he stole land from Haiti's poor and gave it to hand-picked members of his militia, all of whom made no salary but enriched themselves through extortion and other crimes? The dictator/president-for-life/voodoo icon/murdering sociopath was one of the biggest pieces of human excrement ever to walk the face of the earth, and you think bringing him back would be a swell way to lower the crime rate? In other words, utilize mass murder as a means of cleaning the place up?

Great plan. You should run that by the powers that be and see what they think...

(Seriously, Jeff, I try to just ignore you most of the time, but as a member here, I don't want casual visitors thinking we're all so given to such ludicrous and illogical statements.)


Spot on.
Quoting lickitysplit:
Quoting Neapolitan:

Bring back Papa Doc, huh? Are you aware that Duvalier murdered an estimated 30,000 political enemies during his reign of terror and corruption? 30,000? Did you know he imprisoned and tortured thousands more? Did you know he stole land from Haiti's poor and gave it to hand-picked members of his militia, all of whom made no salary but enriched themselves through extortion and other crimes? The dictator/president-for-life/voodoo icon/murdering sociopath was one of the biggest pieces of human excrement ever to walk the face of the earth, and you think bringing him back would be a swell way to lower the crime rate? In other words, utilize mass murder as a means of cleaning the place up?

Great plan. You should run that by the powers that be and see what they think...

(Seriously, Jeff, I try to just ignore you most of the time, but as a member here, I don't want casual visitors thinking we're all so given to such ludicrous and illogical statements.)


Spot on.


I meant crime wise. I know bad analogy but go there now and see what happens. It's the truth!
It is a democratic govt without checks and balances.Just barely better than a communist govt.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Yeah, rappers jumping up and down acting all crazy/tribal on TV to raise money was for the birds what they should have done was gotten their butts gone down there to help with the relief efforts. That would have been a great way to channel that energy.

Jeff, I ask this out of respect: please stop with the racist ranting. Please. The fact that some of us have shown interest in and sympathy for your grandfather who works in Haiti should in no way be misconstrued by you as a license to spout unanswered bigotry.

Again, please stop. Now...
There is a whole group here that does nothing but harass other posters for "fun". I think we all know who is involved. I flag "jokes" about people - especially when they are not here and move on - as tropicfreak suggests.

Admin is aware of the situation.

No visitor can see Jeff9641 posts so - yipes they can. it is a "new poster" - what a set up.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Haiti needs a system like Saudi Arabia. Eye for eye tooth for a tooth. If you steal there they cut your hand off in public and trust me it's true. Rap and then off goes the banana.


I think they did that in Hammurabi's Code.
New blog.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Bring back Papa Doc, huh? Are you aware that Duvalier murdered an estimated 30,000 political enemies during his reign of terror and corruption? 30,000? Did you know he imprisoned and tortured thousands more? Did you know he stole land from Haiti's poor and gave it to hand-picked members of his militia, all of whom made no salary but enriched themselves through extortion and other crimes? The dictator/president-for-life/voodoo icon/murdering sociopath was one of the biggest pieces of human excrement ever to walk the face of the earth, and you think bringing him back would be a swell way to lower the crime rate? In other words, utilize mass murder as a means of cleaning the place up?

Great plan. You should run that by the powers that be and see what they think...

(Seriously, Jeff, I try to just ignore you most of the time, but as a member here, I don't want casual visitors thinking we're all so given to such ludicrous and illogical statements.)




+1000 - sorry Orca, had to up the anty :)
Excellent post Nea
Any updates on how the DR is doing rain wise? Looks like they have been getting some pretty heavy bands over the last couple of hours.
good, a new blog... i'm not wasting any space then telling Jeff9641 that those have been racist statements, and the lack of understanding why is sad enough. Your impostor had better posts Jeff, I cannot stomach your disgusting thoughtless posts anymore, and your entries will now sit in limbo along with your impostor's. from me to you, a rarely announced POOF!