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Hurricane season not over?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:09 AM GMT on December 10, 2007

Is the hurricane season of 2007 over? An area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 94 by NHC, has developed about 400 miles east of Puerto Rico, and is moving west at 15-20 mph. The disturbance shows some modest organization on satellite imagery (Figure 1), with decent heavy thunderstorm activity, and an upper-level outflow channel to the north. Water temperatures in the region are about 26° C, which is right at the limit of what can support formation of a tropical storm. This evening's 8:12 pm EST QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30-35 mph, but no evidence of a surface circulation, and not much of a wind shift at the surface. Wind shear is 20-25 knots over the disturbance, which is too high to allow anything but slow development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94.

Here's what NHC had to say about the disturbance:

1030 PM EST Sun Dec 9 2007

The area of disturbed weather associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 425 miles east of Puerto Rico remains fairly well-organized...but satellite images and surface observations suggest that this system has not developed a closed circulation yet. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph and is producing heavy squalls with gale force winds to the north of the shower activity. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for some development and a tropical or subtropical storm could form during the next 24 hours. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto Rico...Hispaniola...and the eastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.

None of the models develop the disturbance, but they do indicate that wind shear will remain near 20 knots through Monday night. This may allow 94L to stay organized enough to bring heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph to Puerto Rico Monday night and on Tuesday morning to the eastern Dominican Republic. The disturbance is moving fast enough, about 20 mph, that the chances for serious flooding like Tropical Storm Noel brought to the region are low. By Tuesday, the models are showing an increase in wind shear to 30 knots, which should prevent further development. If there's anything left of 94L by Thursday, when it reaches the Western Caribbean, wind shear is expected to drop to 15 knots, and the system has a better chance of developing. I don't expect 94L will ever develop into a tropical storm, though.

I'll have a update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters!
Wow, got an update already.
Thanks for the update. The 20kt forward speed should keep it check. Seems like we've had alotta fast moving storms this season. Persistant strong bermuda highs or because they've been farther south?
OH GOOD GRIEF!!! Thanks Dr. Masters
Well, we could sure use the rain up around Lake O if it should come this way...
Would sure make a mess of Holiday displays...
None of the models develop the disturbance

The CMC and NOGAPS develop it; SSTs are also around 27-28*C based on these maps, well above the limit (not that Epsilon, Zeta, Vince, etc cared):

thanks doc i knew u be watchin quiet amasing to even still be trackin these babies but hey surprize surprize it bringing a lot out of hibernation thanks again doc for update
Thank you for the unexpected update, Sir.

I just looked at the previous blog post and I was astonished to see more than 1100 comments on it. When was the last time we had more than 1000 comments? I don't have the time to read through the last 500 (I stopped reading somewhere in the 600s when it was time to go to bed) but I definitely will later on not to miss anything interesting about the invest. Probably the last system to develop this year so enjoy while you can :-)

Good night everyone over the Atlantic and Good Morning to everyone else. It's 7 a.m. here and I have to get ready for the day. See you later!
Dr Masters

It is Christmas and we have our yards full of Christmas Decorations and we cannot have a windy storm this time of year.. please tell me this aint' so!
I'll wager that this blob's got a shot to be named. Seems in the last few years, the conventional wisdom of ideal climatological conditions for the formation of tropical systems has been turned on its head.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters. I myself personally think this will become a tropical depression, but I don't know about a named storm.
Michael if it makes it into the GOM like NGP possibly indicates - do you think we could see some more development in the gulf? Any idea of what kind of conditions are predicted for the 15th-16th?
Michael, also the GFS shows a low going up the east coast of Florida on the 16th and another hitting the Yucatan on the 20th.
Could we see a couple systems here?
I don't think the Gulf is warm enough to support any significant development, regardless of what gets in there. There has never been a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in December, and I don't see any reason why there would be now. Seriously, there's a major difference between December and August. It's not like this is the peak of the season, and conditions are extremely favorable.
Kori, but with La Nina we are seeing some unusual weather this year. La Nina has also left us with some late favorable conditions. In 1985 Hurricane Kate strengthened in the GOM to hit Florida on November 20th and I don't believe that it was a La Nina year. The southern GOM and NW Carribean still have some favorable SSTs which could impact it if it makes it that far.
looks like Olga may be here. The NRL took 94L down...
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters! I wondered about the shear since the system is very assymetrical, but we will see. I just hope a good slug of this tropical moisture gets entrained into a storm system when it gets close to FL or NW Caribbean next weekend, cause we need the rain badly!
looks like Olga may be here. The NRL took 94L down...

Why did the NRL take 94L down? I noticed the same thing myself.
Kori, but with La Nina we are seeing some unusual weather this year. La Nina has also left us with some late favorable conditions. In 1985 Hurricane Kate strengthened in the GOM to hit Florida on November 20th and I don't believe that it was a La Nina year. The southern GOM and NW Carribean still have some favorable SSTs which could impact it if it makes it that far.

True. But Kate was only one hurricane out of what, hundreds? Not saying it can't happen again, but this year's La Nina has produced stronger than normal shear, at least in September and parts of October. I don't see how anything significant can develop in the Gulf (at least tropical-wise; a baroclinic system could easily develop there and get potent) with shear as high as it is in there, and with SSTs in the mid to low 70s.


The last infrared radar imagery released from the NRL before it was taken down.
20. 7544
looks like if this does become olga and makes it into the nw carb. we have to watch the fronts there will be one around that time that can swing the system ne over the fla pin. wait and see time
Hades, but that doesn't explain why they took it down. Any idea why it's off the site? I myself am thinking it's just a glitch...
the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanology Center never posted 94L.. how odd
maybe the satellite went down or is unavailable
There is one thing. The Euro model is going crazy with a wild winter storm going up the east coast rivaling the 1993 superstorm in intensity. That will await further runs and confirmation by other models to see if that really happens.

But, could all that tropical juicy air around 94L get entrained into a storm system next week and energize it?
But, could all that tropical juicy air around 94L get entrained into a storm system next week and energize it?

I wouldn't rule that completely out.
Hmmmm Anyone got a link to this Euro-model??
Man that Super-storm of '93 was no joke. We had 90 mph winds when that front came through here in S.W. Miami!!! I was not worried about this storm at all UNTIL I read that.
Hey Sully!
Just found this when I went to see what this tropical system might do. I was not worried about the tropical system till I read this....


24. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:04 AM GMT on December 10, 2007
There is one thing. The Euro model is going crazy with a wild winter storm going up the east coast rivaling the 1993 superstorm in intensity. That will await further runs and confirmation by other models to see if that really happens.

But, could all that tropical juicy air around 94L get entrained into a storm system next week and energize it?

LOL you KNOW this got my attention REAL quick!!!! Any thoughts on this & happen to have a link to this Euro model?
OOOOPS!!!!
Sorry I was trying to post in ANOTHER featured blog LOL
Well the other models are not showing a monster storm. So I probably shouldn't have mentioned it. But it is still interesting :)
HEY Simon!
Can u please give the link to the Euro. I dont have that one.
Now we have our Christmas blob watch. Happy holidays. :)
We had 90 mph winds when that front came through here in S.W. Miami!!! I was not worried about this storm at all UNTIL I read that.

That's my kind of weather.
Oops I made a mistake, it was the JMA model from Japan, and it has revised to a weaker system on the next run.
Well funny thing about that Superstorm of 1993 when it came through here Kori. Just look at the date & then realize what had come through Miami just 7 months earlier! lol I told SullivanWeather this story about how with Hurricane Andrew still FRESH in our minds , this superstorm came through here with 90 mph winds. Needless to say it scared the **** out of me & many others I am SURE!
Like I said, that's my kind of weather. Crazy or not. :)

Oh, and am I the only one who's noticed that the NHC is not issuing a special disturbance statement at this time? Shouldn't they be? I don't see any real reason for them to not watch 94L. It has changed little in organization tonight.
I noticed too, KoritheMan. I think STDSes should be issued until a TC forms. 94L, IMO, should be TS Olga right after it gets a closed circulation.
38. JLPR
I see 94l center is exposed maybe thats one reason for it to be taken down everywhere since the NHC hasnt posted a recent Tropical disturbance statement and the navy removed 94l
It probably is because the center is exposed, but that shouldn't stop them from issuing the updates. I mean, I think that's just stupid. Or maybe the recent "you're naming too many storms" crap has got a hold to them. I dunno.

I can see on satellite imagery that 94L's LLC is completely exposed south of the main area of convection. The NHC hasn't taken it off the floater yet, though, but I'm sure that will be done later today, although I don't know why, since this system still easily meets the criteria for a special disturbance statement, IMO.
Err, if you can even call it an LLC.
41. JLPR
yeah its kinda stupid that the center is exposed doesnt mean the system is over i dont get it :S
but anyway got to go
I dont know what im doing here :P lol
42. JLPR
maybe if we has a visible shot we could see how is the center really come one sun get 94L already :P
Thanks Dr. Masters

Well it was fun while it lasted. Got to go pay the piper. Have an excellent day all.
Shen
Well, well, well........Is this a surprise or what?? And I thought we were clear!!!!!
Good Morning,

It seems the system is moving north of us here the Leeward Islands. That is great new cause I dont like December rain.
000
WONT41 KNHC 101143
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
47. IKE
Come on 94L...I'm rooting for ya! Just don't hurt anyone!
Oh, and GOOD MORNING ALL!!!!!!!!
Well as 94L moves into this decreasing wind shear enviroment then perhaps the center will become more involved with the convection, perhaps enough so to be called "Olga"
Good morning 456, SVFF and all,

I'm currently watching the satellite loop on the wunderground page on 94L and can't help wondering whether someone turned the disco lights on *lol* Do you notice anything weird in your area, 456? ^^
*flash flash*

There is also a weird strip on the floater 1 on the SSD site. What is going on down there?
BBL
52. IKE
From San Juan morning discussion....

"Discussion...broad TUTT circulation remains cut off and is
forecast to shift ever so slightly west and northwest next several
days...and will likely attempt to merge into one circulation.
Meanwhile surface trough will continue to move west 15 knots across the
local area next 24 hours and accompanied by abundant moisture and
a vigorous middle level circulation...will spread strong northeasterly winds
and occasional squalls and isolated thunderstorms across the local area
this morning through tonight. Global models move this low level trough
westward across the area next 24-36 hours...and the deep convection
seen on satellite imagery this morning will likely remain over the Atlantic
waters and not move en mass across the local islands. However...
satellite imagery is suggesting a low level circulation attempting to form
just NE of Barbuda...in the col between the two main TUTT
lows...and also in between the middle level circulation and surface
reflection to its south-southeast. If a closed surface circulation is to
develop...isolated deep convection will likely form around periphery
and affect the local islands...and further enhance heavy precipitation
potential. Occasional squalls and isolated thunderstorms embedded in the
NE flow expected to move into the area today and tonight will
leave significant rains across the north slopes and coasts of PR...and
will likely lead to river flooding tonight or Tuesday...as well as
urban and stream flooding. However...anything more than a few deep
convective cells across the north slopes could produce additional very
heavy rains...and with moist soils currently...flood potential
does exist. Wind advisories are currently in effect for PR for
elevations above 1000 feet...and high surf advisories along north and NE
coasts. Have yet to issue any Flash Flood Watch at this time...but may
become necessary later today."
Sweet IKE!!!!!!!!
55. IKE
The 0Z GFDL develops it...

Link
56. IKE
And the 0Z HWRF, to a lesser extent....

Link
58. IKE
That would be amazing. Two weeks before Christmas.

And it's headed in the same general direction that so many prior systems have this year.
59. IKE
I hadn't noticed that highest knots forecasted on the GFDL...84.2 knots!
this could make landfall on Christmas for all we know
Wow Dr.Masters thank you for the late night update fascinating!
65. IKE
Same here....good morning to all.
66. IKE
I'll try this again.

Same here...good morning to all.

And now it posts!

Olga must be affecting the blogs!
I wish it would just develop
94L appears less organized this morning and the chances for any real signficant development now appear rather low.

Here is an excellent view of were the LLC is presently located.
looks like a low pressure is developing on IR and Vis. So how can you say it is less developed. No big deal but?
Good morning all. I see that our system has changed little in organization, but it appears more evident this morning that a closed surface low is developing at this time. With its current location and the present location of the high, I cannot see why the models are forecasting this system to go into the Caribbean. I have not seen any southward motion of this system yet to indicate this. I stand firm that this system will travel north of the islands. Could anyone explain why the models are forecasting this to move into the Caribbean. I do see some southward movement in the future, but not enough to make it go into the Caribbean.
All thunderstorm activty is displaced from the so called LLC at the present time which is good news as the bad weather has the possibility to remain over water.94L indeed has a small window for some slight intensification but that window will begin to close as upper level winds are forcasted to increase to around 30kts which will halt any futher chances at getting better organized.As Dr.Masters pointed out upper level winds could be more favorable once it makes into the western caribbean but i also feel that its more likely it will not develope.

Could bring some heavy rain to DR. Adrian
Did anyone notice that in the 7:05 AM TWD, the NHC has stated that there is a 1010 mb surface low now analyzed? Does this indicate that it has become a closed low or what? I did not see this before in their previous statements. I believe we have a closed low.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM EAST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1010 MB SFC LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 19N60W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT
AND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 58W-62W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF AREA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N TO
23N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THIS
AREA. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREA.
73. IKE
70. cchsweatherman

If it keeps moving due west it'll make it into the Caribbean. Almost all models have it moving due west to slightly south of due west.
74. IKE
I wouldn't be shocked if this system gets named. Maybe a ST Olga.
Scratch my comment no. 70. I just took a good look at satellite imagery and my eyes must have been bad, since now I see the LLC in line with northern Puerto Rico. I was incorrect in my statement, but I still think that when the high moves off to the east and the cold front comes in from the west late this week, this system will move more northward.
77. IKE
It's almost at 62West now. It's moving along.
Who knows let's see........Back to making cafe con leche for this system!!!
94L is on the Navy site.
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N
ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

AMZ089-101530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG TROUGH ALONG 60W WITH LOW PRES 19N60W 1010 MB
MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR 64W LATE MON...
NEAR 70W LATE TUE AND ALONG 76W LATE WED AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THU TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI.
STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND DIMINISH SOME
MON THROUGH WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WITH WINDS INCREASING LATE WED THROUGH FRI OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
AND JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TROPICAL N ATLC.
Storm, IKE, 456, or anyone else, since the NHC has analyzed a 1010 mb surface low at 19N-60W, does that mean that we now have a closed low? If not, what does it mean? Thanks.
Good morning!

You can see the llc, but all the convection is on the north side. Maybe something ST but even that looks like it's gonna take some work.
cchsweatherman.....It just means there is a broad area of low pressure. That might possibly close off:



WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING.
Well that one came out of nowhere. Very cloudy here in northern PR.


...moist environment.
Ahhh, Pretty Pictures!! :)
91. IKE
Looks like some thunderstorms are forming on the northern side of the COC. Looks better on satellite.
Good morning everyone! 94L prompted Channel 2 News, C2News.com, to go into Storm Alert. The weather team is monitoring the situation from Storm Center 2 for as long as it takes. The tropical weather blog has been updated (my wunderblog) and we will now do it 2x per day with new 2x coverage. For more storm analysis while we wait for Dr. Masters to update his blog, you can read the C2News Tropical Wx Blog! Our attention is focused on Invest 94L!

93. IKE
Looks like it's headed straight for our friends in Puerto Rico. Squally weather.
Don't tell me that Ike, I have finals today and tomorrow. For God's sake why couldn't this happen in September or something =P
95. IKE
The good thing is...most of the convection may parallel PR and not be a direct hit.
And the Blog Stirs back to life!
For olga?

Ok - relistic chance of development?

Looks like all the model take her south...back to the Yucatan!

What is the High over Florida forcasted to do this week?



well, well..... looky here..... just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water! :D
And CMC from last week scores!
100. 786
Back for another possible formation in the middle of December!!! who would have thought, I would be suprised honestly if it becomes anything more than a storm, but you never know..
101. IKE
"Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1018 am AST Monday Dec 10 2007


Update...expect the approaching subtropical
disturbance
...presently about 250 miles east of Puerto Rico...to
increase the pressure gradient across the local islands
today...resulting in windy conditions later today and persisting
through midday Tuesday. Already had a report of a wind gust of 42
knots at stt this morning...and sustained winds of 25 to 35 miles per hour
with gusts this high can be expected across the entire forecast
area as this disturbance gets closer to the local islands.
As a
result...decided to extend and expand the Wind Advisory to include
all of the local islands through 4 PM AST Tuesday afternoon. In
addition...models continue to generate significant precipitation
as this disturbance tracks over Puerto Rico tonight through early
Tuesday...so also decided to issue a Flood Watch for the entire
forecast area through 4 PM AST Tuesday afternoon as well."


Olga?
Well if it does become a (S)TD or a (S)TS today, we would know at 11am or 5pm or 11pm, correct? If not, what times? thanks.
103. 786
IKE, do you think? And do you think it will subtropical or tropical?
104. IKE
San Juan...long range radar...

Link
105. 786
Here in Cayman the weather pretty cool and very windy so not sure if it will have a chance in the W Caribbean to develop further
106. IKE
I think there's a good chance it'll be upgraded..probably a ST. STD or STS?
When do ya think, Ike?
108. IKE
Like the NHC stated...within 24 hours.
110. 786
It does look decent on the satellite, lol well we could def. use a little rain here already since the dry season started.
Oh, it seems to be developing (as far as I have understood by quickly scanning the last posts). Darn, I'm missing most of it due to technical problems. For the last 2 hours I've been struggling with my computer and my digi cam because I wanted to upload new pics in my wunderphotos but the camera is not recognized by the system. Since the last update several things don't work anymore *argh* Sometimes the loops freeze as well... I'll be off for a while busy with troubleshooting extreme. :-(
113. 786
Question: if it remains subtropical/extratropical then it could not transition into a hurricane? It would have to develop into a tropical system with a closed circulation?
114. 786
Thx Storm, great synopsis as always - a nie little suprise b4 x-mas
I read your synopsis. Nice Job! You make it easy to understand too! :)
116. IKE
786 9:02 AM CST on December 10, 2007
Question: if it remains subtropical/extratropical then it could not transition into a hurricane? It would have to develop into a tropical system with a closed circulation?


It could transition into a hurricane. I think it has to be truly tropical to make it to a hurricane.
But even if it not purely tropical, it can still have wind that exceeds hurricane force.
118. IKE
HurricaneGeek 9:09 AM CST on December 10, 2007
But even if it not purely tropical, it can still have wind that exceeds hurricane force.


Yup.

Looks like Pacman on visible satellite.
Good job Storm as always.
120. 786
oh right,what do you mean by exceed hurricane force? I thought that a subtrop system would not have the potential to get as strong as a pure tropical system?? although could cause a lot of damage if it lingers around...
Means that it can still have winds over 74 mph even though it is not a "hurricane" per se. A perfect example is the West Coast Storm on the Pacific Side just about a week ago. That was NOT a hurricane, yet there was winds as high as in the 120's. That's Category 3.
And what made me say the West Coast Storm is that came from the Ocean, like a hurricane.
123. 786
oh right! wow fascinating, I guess just cause the hurricane season is over does not mean we should stop monitoring the weather as possibly devastating systems are still likely!!

Thx a lot for the info.
Also, 786. I am 99% sure Noel was not purely tropical way up North near New England and the Canadian Maritimes, yet there was winds over hurricane force. It had transitioned. That is probably a better example then the West Coast Storm
No problem. Of course you are right, things like this DO happen. I am glad I could help! :)
126. IKE
Has a TCFA on it...not sure if that was posted earlier...

Link
First here is a good look at were the LLC with this T/STS system presently...Most models right now are in agreement as mentioned yesterday that strong high pressure to its north like most tropical cyclones this year will be pushed SW into the western caribbean.Right now wheather that happens our not is up for question as the SW flow ahead of the projected cold front could tend turn 94L on more NW course.The high pressure ridge to its north is actually forcasted to shift east and move south which in my opinion could turn 94L toward FL and bring the state some much need rainfall. Adrian

Current models for 94L from SFWMD.

Great loop to watch 94L


Thanks StormW.
130. 786
Everyone here thinks they are scot free once the hurricane season is over and they do not monitor the weather because they don't think they have anything to worry about, but really a nor-easter or subtropical system could be much worse and stronger that a cat. 1!!! Good to know, I will continue storm tracking
Good morning,

I know some of you are going to hate me for saying this but Olga would be a great Christmas present for me! I know we are over 2 weeks away but an early present wouldnt hurt.

The lastest satellite shows a low level circulation taking shape and some thunderstorm activity on the very northern periphery......

Tonight could become very interesting......

I know the weather here in central florida has been very unusually warm....Kind of weird.....
Question for the class:
How are the ever more common ice storms in the mid and northern latitudes of the North American continent a sign of global warming?
O boy....theres a Question to really get Monday a going downhill.
*Geek raises his hand*

Because It would be snow, otherwise??
This system isnt a threat,nor is it ever likely to be. One must look downstream in time ,and NWesterly thru time, as a CONUS big butted High is sure to bring this swirlie a ticket North,than Northeast thru time.

GFSx Link
For everyone who dilikes the global warming debate, let's assume global warming is a cyclical phenom, and will be over in five more years. Now, let's address the present ice storm in Kansas in mid-December, closing airports and throwing people in the cold. Why is global warming perhaps responsible??
Franck, you and Al Gore may wanna look at this.....

http://right-mind.us/blogs/blog_0/archive/2007/12/10/56595.aspx

" Southern Hemisphere’s ice cover now is at the same level as last June, i.e., a level seen during the last winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Besides, there are two more millions square kilometers of ice now compared to December 2006. And the large positive anomaly has persisted since September.

And

In the Northern Hemisphere, the ice and snow cover have recovered to within 1% (one snowstorm) of normal with the official start of winter still more than 12 days away "


Oh, it will be 77f in Myrtle Beach today.... must be global warming! LOL
Good to se Al Gore scaring another one..LOL
Hey StormW...Monday...
Yes, yes guys, you have it. Kansas is being covered in ice in mid-December because it is too warm to snow in December. Just a couple degrees warmer, and we get ice pellets instead of snowflakes.
Warm in Nawlins too..But I Blame the republicans..LOL
New Orleans, Louisiana
Elevation: 3 ft / 1 m
[Mostly Cloudy]
73 F / 23 C
Mostly Cloudy
Thats not a hard question!

Its a easy question, we just dont have enough history to fall back on to give an educated guess. You know everyone says that the Northern polar ice cap is melting but no one is talking about the southern pole which is bigger that ever recorded. I think that as always we humans give ourselves way too much credit for our ability to change things. I think that we can change some small eco-systems but overall we do little to effect the world. The world is way to big and diverse to worry about little ole us! Let me put it to you like this, when we can control a hurricane then come talk to me. When we can move a hurricane around like cattle then come talk to me.

One volcanic eruption puts more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere then the total human race could in twenty years.....(In one of my college classes)////////

Adapt and survive.......move on! Thats my answer......
142. Patrap 3:38 PM GMT on December 10, 2007
Warm in Nawlins too..But I Blame the republicans..LOL

George Bush, to be exact! hehehe Good one!
Tonight..from London

Led Zeppelin Returns


Here in St Martin we have had howling winds all weekend and yet right now, with Invest 94L theoretically right over us, its dead calm.

Explanations anyone ?

And no, the 'eye of the invest' will not cut it !
The Computer models.......

Yeah I remember them when Felix was growing into a major hurricane.....I dont believe any of them started picking up on the storm until it was already a hurricane.........Yeah the models have their place just like we humans do......
g'morning everyone,
in 1996, in Elk City, OK we took our kids trick or treating in the snow. For La kids, to see that much snow all at once was sooo exciting for them. It's not that unusual to have snow in that area before winter is properly here. 1997, same town, the snow waited for Thanksgiving day.(today, that town is being mentioned on twc quite often due to the ice storm, hubby has that station on)
paula
149. IKE
Patrap 9:45 AM CST on December 10, 2007
Tonight..from London

Led Zeppelin Returns



On the cover of the Rolling Stone.

Good Luck ZEP!
Jimmy Page Hints at a Tour...

Link
000
WONT41 KNHC 101549
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS
FURTHER...IT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR
GALE FORCE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH. HEAVY RAINS OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
152. IKE
NEW BLOG!
track martk 19.2n/62.3w INV/
it has move .5degrees n by 4.2degrees w during the last 12 hrs
154. 786
https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/public/meteo/subtropical_cyclones.html..and interesting and very informative website explaining subtropical systems for anyone interested