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Hurricane season is over--but not typhoon season!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 PM GMT on November 30, 2006

The remarkably unremarkable Atlantic hurricane season of 2006 has now officially passed into the history books with the arrival of November 30. The nine named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes, 50 days with a named storm, and 20 days with a hurricane were all very close to the averages one expects for an Atlantic hurricane season. The only Atlantic hurricanes to affect land were Hurricane Gordon, which passed through the Azores Islands on September 19 as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, and Hurricane Florence, whose eye passed about 50 miles west of Bermuda on September 11 and brought sustained 80 mph winds to the island. Neither hurricane did significant damage. The only significant damage done by a 2006 Atlantic storm was Hurricane Ernesto, which caused about $100 million in damage to North Carolina and Florida August 31-September 1. Ernesto was also responsible for the only fatalities of the season--five people in Haiti, and two victims in Florida. We were very fortunate, indeed, compared to the vicious hurricane seasons the previous two years!

A few interesting highlights from the 2006 Hurricane Season, taken in part from Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach's forecast team at Colorado State University:

It was another early-starting season. Alberto formed on June 11. The climatological average date for the first named storm formation in the Atlantic, based on 1944-2005 data, is July 10.

The 9 named storms, 2 intense hurricanes, and 50 named storm days were the lowest observed since the El Nino year of 1997.

This is only the 11th year since 1945 that no hurricanes have made United States landfall.

No Category 4 or 5 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic basin this year. This is the first year with no Category 4-5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1997.

No named storms formed in October. This is the first time that no named storms have formed in October since 2002. Prior to 2006, only eleven years since 1950 witnessed no named storm formations in October.

Only two named storm days were observed in October (from Isaac which formed in late September). This is the fewest named storm days in October since 1994, when zero named storm days were observed.

Citizens Property Insurance Corp. increased their average homeowner rate by 56% in Florida this year, with another 27% increase scheduled for January 1. Imagine if another year like 2004 or 2005 had affected Florida what the insurance rates might have done!

27 percent: The Citizens rate increase approved to start Jan. 1.

Typhoon season is definitely not over!
Hurricane season may be over in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, but typhoon season continues in the Western Pacific. Tyhoons are common well into December most years, thanks to the large expanse of warm waters and the lower vertical wind shear experienced there compared to the Atlantic.

Typhoon Durian slammed ashore in the northern Philippine Islands this morning as a powerful and very dangerous Category 4 typhoon. Durian (named for a spiky tropical fruit) continues to track westward across the Philippines, pounding the the region with its 145 mph winds and rainfall amounts exceeding 12 inches per day (Figure 2). The winds and pressure at Calapan , the next major city Durian is expected hit, will be worth watching today. Durian remains in an environment of weak vertical wind shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level outflow, and should be able to maintain its Category 4 strength for another 12 hours, resulting in a very severe pounding for the Philippines. Beyond that time, interaction with land, dry air over the South China Sea, and increasing vertical wind shear will act to substantially weaken Durian. However, the damage and death toll in the Philippine is likely to be great, due to the slow movement of the storm, which will bring long-duration battering winds and extreme rainfall. Already, 9 inches of rain has fallen at Samar Island and 6 inches at Pili as of 3 GMT this morning, and rainfall amounts exceeding 12 inches in the mountainous areas are sure to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides all along the track of Durian. One major positive development is the storm's unexpected more westerly track, which is taking it well south of the capital city of Manila, with its 12 million residents. Still, damage and loss of life may rival what devastating Typhoon Xangsane did to the islands on September 27. Xangsane, a Category 4 typhoon that passed over Manilla, killed 218, did over $100 million in damage, and left tens of thousands homeless. Durian is the fourth major typhoon to hit the Philippines this year.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Durian from NOAA.

Figure 2. Latest precipitation forecast for a 24-hour period from NOAA's Satellite Analysis Branch.

I'll be back Friday with the latest on Typhoon Durian, plus an analysis of why the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was so mild.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Isn't it great we made it thru this year with very little impact.. Wish we could get a couple of years in a row like 2006 so we can get fully recovered!!
Thanks for the update!
The Huracan' Gods have spared the USA this year.We hope the next is just as this one.No impacts..no worries Mate.Thanks for keeping us informed daily thru the past season Dr. Masters.
I doubt anybody even bought firecrackers to celebrate. Let's just hope people don't get too complacent.
Is it safe to post this now?

Have been out of commisison for the last two months on work out of town but want to thank Dr. Master's for his great work and insight and all of the regulars on the Blob...This was my first year of participation and I learned a great deal about tropical systems......I hope that all of you have a great and safe Holiday Season and I hope to "bone up" on tropical formation over the next several months so that I can be a better and more informed/productive participant next season.....See you all on June 1st...
I'm thankful that the U.S. was spared this year, also that Manila will miss the worst from Durian.
Good morning everyone!!
Heres a toast to next years season to be just as nice to us!!!!
Thats all she wrote thank God
The coast was very fortunate. Hopefully people's short memories don't forget how seriously they took this season and hopefully they will again next year.

The most memorable storm and fortunate storm for me was Ernesto. Oh what could have happened if it didnt get pulled north and stayed on that westerlie course like forcasted?
LOL...You wouldn't want to use it on Buster would you?
how much you willing to bet cyclone?
COOL!..Wal-Mart has puters on-line in their store!.This page to get Busy as the Frigid push moves South and east...Link
well i think there where a lot of ULLS this year
LOtsa Busty shoppers around.Later..LOL!
LOL...Pat's in Wal-Mart!
El Nino the big reason the party never took off in the Alantic. However people in the Southwest wonder why El Nino has not brought them there expected weather patteren.
Pat - git back to that list - you are an addict!
"Hurricane season is over--but not typhoon season!"

That would be because there is no typhoon season -- because it is always typhoon season, as typhoons can form year 'round. :-)
I am reading the book The Storm and the Ship: Hurricane Mitch and the loss of the Fantome by Jim Carrier. Its a great reading but a sad one. Anyway I highly recommend the book.
Hey Margie
Build it and they will come (back).
Anyone who can give me any information as to the damage to the cities of Legaspi and Tarlac, I would very much appreciate it. I have extended family in those areas and have no idea as to what has happened due to this typhoon.

1113 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006



1113 AM CST THU NOV 30 2006




Here is the offical Correspondence:

From: mail-storm@seahorse.nhc.noaa.gov
Subject: Notice to NHC email list (2006 season ends)
Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2006 12:30:00 PM EST

National Hurricane Center's
Automated Advisory Email Service

(This message is being sent to each NHC list you subscribe to.)

The National Hurricane Center thanks you for subscribing to the automated email advisory system this past season.

Next season, the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks will start on May 15, for those subscribed to the Pacific lists.

Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be issued starting June 1.

Thank you again, and we will see you next season!

NHC webmaster
plywoodstatenative~ I don't have damage reports, just going on the track & where these places are located.

Tarlac~Is a decent fetch N of Manila. If the storm goes as forecasted they should fair just fine. Pass well to the south, it's not there yet but Manila still has power.

Legaspi~ I would be genuinly conserned for these people if they stayed. They got nailed with cat 5 eyewall. Pretty much where it made landfall yesterday (in their time). Here's the Microwave animation at landfall, Here's a map to find the town. Let us know how the ones in Legaspi faired when you find out. It will probibly be a while, unless they evacuated. Sorry, they took the brunt.

This is going to be ugly!

Some webcams...
The yacht club. Boats are good.
The Manila view. Power seems to have been on & off, back on again!

Referring to the map above, here is what is currently happening here:

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Nov 30, 11:51 am CST
Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature: 29F (-2C)
Humidity: 89 %
Wind Speed: N 14 MPH
Barometer: 30.07" (1019.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 26F (-3C)
Wind Chill: 18F (-8C)
Visibility: 4.00 mi.

As for cyclonebuster's comment... rolls eyes The GOM was even hotter this year... why didn't we have a repeat of last year? Something that he needs to think about.
The Office of Civil Defense in Manila said 120 people evacuated their homes in Catanduanes as did more than 800 in Albay province's capital, Legazpi city, where widespread flooding was reported.

Hopefully they were one of the 800...
FEMA Ordered to Resume Katrina Payments

On Wednesday, a federal judge said the Bush administration must immediately resume housing payments for thousands of people displaced by the hurricane, heaping more criticism on the government for its handling of the 2005 disaster.

On Monday, a federal judge in Louisiana said that many homeowners might be entitled to more insurance money for flood damage. Insurers pledged to appeal.

full article here.

Part 1 of the storm over (the ice) Here comes Part 2 I happen to be in the Kansas City Metro area and we should get a bunch of snow

Hey, hello everyone, yes, the 2006 Hurricane Season is Over. We are now receiving showers and very windy conditions also we have a coastal flood warning in effect. All this weather thanks to a cold front and a strong high preassure system, so the winter season is here thankfully for us because the temperatures are going down a little bit.
So my best wishes to all and have a

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2007!!!!
Meanwhile, as Durian slams the Philippines, two tropical cyclones are strengthening in the Southern Hemisphere - one near Australia and one near Africa.
PAGASA server is offline.. woah!!
Cyclone Zita still forecasted near Solomon Island

Tropical Cyclone 03S it looks like the storm won't get named. The La Reunion tropical advisory center doesn't forecast this storm above 30 knots for it to be named Anita.
These time lapse video are the Best! here is the CIMARON .... watch how it goes haywire (like a race car going off the track after) it goes over land ... a must see

Looking at the floater these boats are about in the thick of it. Doesn't look too bad. Reming has certainly weakend. 960mb
Hello. It's FREEEZING outside. Or at least 5 degrees above it. It is the same temputure in Tomball, TX (my location) as it is in Saginaw, Michigan (my grandparents location). There is something wrong about that.
LOL... At least you are not getting sleet, snow, freezing rain and ice:

Daily history (don't know why the last couple observations have only recorded fog and mist when significant amounts of precipitation fell).
Michael that looks nasty .... :c(
Michael thats quite a mess!

Im going to get 15-25mm (1/2 - 1 inch) of freezing rain where I live...
First real taste of winter.
Ya, I know. Still, it rarely gets this cold here, even in the dead of winter. The forcast for 4:00 here is a cold 47, and it is already 10 degrees below that!
Here are the current observations (I added a link to the daily observations at the airport to my last post):

Observed at: South County, Affton, Missouri
Elevation: 609 ft / 185 m
Temperature: 27.1 F / -2.7 C
Heavy Ice Pellets Snow Mist
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 25 F / -4 C
Wind: 4.0 mph / 6.4 km/h from the North
Wind Gust: 15.0 mph / 24.1 km/h
Pressure: 30.01 in / 1016.1 hPa
Windchill: 22 F / -5 C
Visibility: 1.2 miles / 2.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 900 ft / 274 m
Overcast 1900 ft / 579 m
(Above Ground Level)
Some places in the Houston area dropped up to 30 degrees in 10-15 minutes. It's a little unconfortable when it happens when you're outside changing classes.
That webcam of the boats has not updated in about 8 hours. The same image has been up there all day. Not even 1 raindrop on the lens has changed.
Look at the difference in temperatures ahead and behind cold front... (cold front is around the green colour)

Hi Yall.
MichealSTL, that weather sucks. End of story. Do us all a favor and stay warm.
Here is my part of the country .... but deteriorating by the minute

Observed at: Central Mountain, Hamilton, ONTARIO

Elevation: 700 ft / 213 m
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 42 F / 6 C
Wind: 3.1 mph / 5.0 km/h from the NNE
Wind Gust: 5.4 mph / 8.7 km/h
Pressure: 29.91 in / 1012.8 hPa
Windchill: 44 F / 7 C
Visibility: 2.5 miles / 4.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 400 ft / 121 m
Overcast 600 ft / 182 m
(Above Ground Level)
Hey melagoo, I live just east of Montreal and im supposed to get 15-25mm of freezing rain tomorrow... yikes!
If anyone likes pool and poker come to my blog.
The temp variations are significant more for the excessive warmth on the one side than excessive cold on the other. From the southest all the way up the eastern corridor temps are 15-25 degrees above normal for the season.
Steve you live in canada.
This is from my Weather Underground forecast (zip code 63129):

This Afternoon
Blustery. Much colder. Freezing rain and sleet. Additional sleet accumulation around 1 inch. Additional ice accumulation of less than one quarter of an inch. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. North wind 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent.

Blustery...colder. Occasional sleet...freezing rain and snow in the evening...then snow after midnight. Snow heavy at times after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 8 inches. Total snow accumulation 7 to 9 inches. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Near steady temperature in the lower 20s. North wind around 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 100 percent.

Windy. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow in the morning...then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High in the upper 20s. West wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.
ryang - Yes, and...?
Welcome to Winter Ehh! LOL
They were only 10 degrees warmer than average here (68 vs 78), but if the cold front didn't come through this morning, it would have gotten close to 90 here. The temp. this morning nearly trumped yesterday's high (77 vs 78), and that was 6:00 in the morning. This morning and now are two different seasons. Winter is here in Houston, like it or not.
Steve nothing.You like poker.If yes go to my blog.
By the way Melagoo I have a blog on canadian weather and I think you might be interested since you live there...
I like poker but not now. :) Im pretty excited about this storm...
Our High reached 16C
From forecast:

Total snow accumulation 7 to 9 inches.

To realize how significant this is, last winter saw a total of 10.5 inches of snow, with about 3 inches being the greatest storm total (this explains my blog title). The last time 7+ inches of snow fell was on December 13, 2000 when 7.6 inches fell, followed by 6 inches on December 24-25, 2002.
This should warm you up:

Current Weather Conditions:
Stuart, Witham Field Airport, FL, United States

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT) gusting to 17 MPH (15 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 66 F (19 C)
Relative Humidity 58%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.12 in. Hg (1019 hPa)

I'll have to check it out SteveDa1
View from the airport:

Local news on the storm
What are the chances that the low is going to be lower than forcasted here? I say fairly high (40-60%).
In 72 hrs, the WRF Model is predicting an absolutely massive anticyclone (1050 mb+) to park itself over eastern Montana.

I got about 6 inches a few weeks ago here in SE Minnesota. It's gone now thanks to plenty of 50 degree days. But it was a high of 18 today, so winter is back.

Looks pretty nasty Michael. Have fun. :)
Rough here.Bad t storms.Link
Many of the other models happily agree, with the CMC boldly predicting the largest anticyclone. Also note the large cyclone over the British Isles.
*All images are forcasted 72 hrs out*




The CMC also goes totally nuts with QPF, showing 40+ cm of precipitation here in the next 48 hours (rain or liquid equivalent):

Powerful Typhoon Durian blows away houses, knocks off power as it slams into Philippines

The Associated Press

A powerful typhoon tore through the eastern Philippines on Thursday with winds of up to 225 kilometers (139 miles) per hour, blowing away small houses, uprooting trees and cutting off power to thousands of homes, officials said.

Typhoon Durian lashed the eastern island province of Catanduanes early Thursday but later veered to the south with its eye likely to spare the bustling capital, metropolitan Manila. Forecasters, however, warned relieved Manila residents to still brace for potentially destructive winds.

"We should not be complacent, Metro-Manila please," chief weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz told ABS-CBN television.

"The eye of the typhoon will not hit Metro Manila but definitely we will feel the effect of this supertyphoon although the eye is quite far from us," he said.

There were no immediate reports of casualties in Catanduanes, about 370 kilometers (230 miles) east of Manila, after authorities ordered the evacuation of coastal areas, said Office of Civil Defense Deputy Administrator Arthur Golez.

Many people went to relatives' houses on higher ground and about 120 sought shelter at the provincial capital, he said.

Some Catanduanes residents described the winds as so strong it felt like an earthquake, Manila Radio DZBB reported.

Catanduanes officials were difficult to contact apparently because of downed communication lines but in Naga city in nearby Camarines Sur province, where the typhoon passed in the afternoon, officials said they received reports of small houses being blown away by the wind.

Rescuers struggled against dangerously strong winds to rescue several residents whose roofs were blown off, exposing them to rain and flying metal sheets and other debris, Naga Mayor Jessie Robredo told The Associated Press by cell phone.

Many residents whose houses were damaged by winds sought help from authorities by sending cell phone SMS messages, due to downed telephone lines, he said.

"I've received SMS messages of 10 small houses being blown away by the wind and many others getting damaged," Robredo said. "The wind was very strong and I expect heavy damage to properties and public facilities," he said.

Manila airport authorities said two Northwest Airlines flights from Narita and Nagoya, Japan, late Thursday, and their return flights Friday morning, have been canceled, along with nine domestic flights.

About 1,500 residents were evacuated to emergency shelters ahead of the typhoon in Naga, about 270 kilometers (167 miles) southeast of Manila, mostly mountain dwellers fearing possible landslides, he said.

The Office of Civil Defense in Manila said at least 120 people evacuated their homes in Catanduanes as did more than 800 in Albay province's capital, Legazpi city, where widespread flooding was reported.

It said that strong winds broke windows at its office in Legazpi, about 340 kilometers (210 miles) southeast of Manila.

The "super typhoon" the fourth to hit the Philippines in as many months was packing sustained winds of 195 kph (121 mph) and gusts of up to 225 kph (140 mph), the Philippine weather bureau said.

The civil defense office said electricity was cut off to thousands of people in Bicol and 10 towns in nearby Quezon province, while nearly 4,000 ferry passengers were stranded after the coast guard grounded all vessels.

Coast guard commandant Rear Adm. Damian Carlos placed all units on the highest alert.

Officials suspended classes in Manila and nearby areas and placed more than 25 northern provinces under storm alerts. All local governments and agencies were alerted to the possibility of landslides and flash floods.

In late September, Typhoon Xangsane left 230 people dead and missing in and around Manila. Typhoon Cimaron killed 19 people and injured 58 others last month, and earlier this month, Chebi sliced through the central Luzon region, killing one.

About 20 typhoons and tropical storms hit the Philippines each year.
Even after crossing the Phillipines, Durian's core still looks realitivly intact!

Some1 forgot about Alberto
Who's Alberto?

: )
This even better



.6 MB QT

94. Inyo
Medium/long range GFS predicts some big storms in California in about 10 days
Were starting to get that El Nino pattern here in the Northwest.
At 2:00 a.m. Friday (6 p.m. UTC Thurs), Typhoon "REMING" was located by PAGASA radar, satellite and surface data in the vicinity of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro or 100 kms south southeast of Manila (13.5N, 121.3E) with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph (80 knots) near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph (100 knots). it is forecast to move west.
in Kansas City, we've got about 6" and more to come so far of snow
As of now 14,000 people have been displaced by Super Typhoon Durian. No reports of deaths or damages yet.
Heavy rains brought on by typhoon Reming (international codename Durian) caused mudflows in Legazpi City and Daraga town in Albay, killing at least 19 people Friday.

Legazpi Mayor Noel Rosal said at least eight barangays were affected by the mudflows with over 100 people reported missing in two barangays near Mount Mayon.

"Only the roofs can be seen in these barangays. Maharlika [Highway] is closed now because of debris from the mudflow and boulders," Albay Governor Fernando Gonzalez told DZMM.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council confirmed one fatality in Canaman, Camarines Sur identified as Salve Almasar, 33. Almasar reportedly died after being hit by a galvanized iron sheet.

Fourteen people were injured in Camarines Sur and are now receiving treatment at Bicol Medical Center in Naga City.

ABS-CBN correspondent Jose Carretero said eight people have been confirmed killed by the local Office of Civil Defense unit in Sto. Domingo town in Albay.

The victims drowned in floodwaters, the report said. Of the eight fatalities, seven bodies have been recovered by authorities.

Current conditions:

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Dec 30, 5:51 pm CST
Freezing Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature: 29F (-2C)
Humidity: 89 %
Wind Speed: N 14 MPH
Barometer: 29.96" (1015.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 26F (-3C)
Wind Chill: 18F (-8C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi.
Hourly observations

I hope that it changes to snow soon... I don't want something like this to happen. It looks like snow on the ground outside, but it is actually ice.
Super Typhoon Cimaron is officially a 180mph Storm.

Possible unnamed tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic

An interesting-looking system south of Nova Scotia on 17 July may
possibly have been a tropical or subtropical storm. The system was
small, had a tight LLCC, anticyclonic outflow, and Buoy 44137 reported
sustained gale-force winds and 5 to 6-metre significant wave heights.
I do not currently have any more information available on this system,
but Eric Blake of TPC/NHC has indicated that it will be reviewed for
possible inclusion as an unnamed storm. The main issues to be determined
are whether or not it was warm-core and if it was attached to a frontal
102. ryang
Blast come to my blog.
103. ryang
Everyone at least check my blog.
Has anyone ever eaten a Durian? I have. Definatly for brave. Link
Ummmm I probably couldn't even pick it up lol

No durians allowed... LOL... I wonder what the fine is.
ROFL! that is an extremely random sign
1. the edible fruit of a tree, Durio zibethinus, of the bombax family, of southeastern Asia, having a hard, prickly rind, a highly flavored, pulpy flesh, and an unpleasant odor.

So that's what a durian is!!!!!!! But why aren't they allowed?
I think this is why (from the article on durians):

Travel and food writer Richard Sterling says:

"... its odor is best described as pig-shit, turpentine and onions, garnished with a gym sock. It can be smelled from yards away. Despite its great local popularity, the raw fruit is forbidden from some establishments such as hotels, subways and airports, including public transportation in Southeast Asia.

The unusual odour has prompted many people to search for an accurate description. Comparisons have been made with the civet, sewage, stale vomit, skunk spray, and used surgical swabs.

At least 15 residents died and over 100 were feared dead after mud and debris from Mayon Volcano loosened by typhoon Reming buried Thursday night an entire village in Legazpi City in Albay.

This developed as a woman was killed in nearby Camarines Sur province after being hit by a galvanized-iron sheet and four others were also feared dead as flashfloods ravaged Rawis village also in Albay, reports gathered by GMANews.TV showed.

Legazpi City Mayor Noel Rosal said Friday morning the incident at Padang village in the city took place while Reming ripped across the Bicol region.

"We set up a command post at the Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council (PDCC). We cannot wait for the proper authorities so we have sent medical teams on motorcycles into the village," Rosal said in an interview on dzRH radio.

Rosal said motorcycle teams have been instructed to rescue all survivors they would find in the village, which is located at the boundary of Legazpi City and Sto. Domingo town in Albay.

Sto. Domingo Mayor Herbie Aguas said digging in the soil has been a tedious effort, especially since local rescuers have been doing what they can even without adequate equipment.

"We have recovered 15 bodies, but we fear more will be coming," Rosal said in Filipino during an interview on dzBB radio.

Local officials said flash floods caused by Reming loosened debris near the volcano. The debris came down the mountain and plunged into a river.

However, a dike that held the river water gave way due to strong winds and heavy rains, Aguas said. The debris then buried Padang village.

Glenn Rabonza, administrator of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), told dzBB radio that fresh reports from the mudslide site indicate that even more bodies were being recovered.

"We already have rescuers there, in fact we have early reports that they are recovering dead bodies already. The 55th IB (Infantry Batallion) is on the ground," Rabonza said in an interview on dzBB radio.

Rabonza said rescue helicopters were not "flyable" and could not assist in the search and rescue effort because of the inclement weather.

"We will deploy the helicopters as soon as the weather improves," Rabonza said in Filipino.

Officials of Padang village said 30 residents suffered critical injuries and could not be immediately moved out as of Thursday night.

They said the super typhoon hit Albay at about 11 a.m. Thursday and left at about 7 p.m.

Radio station dzBB said the Regional Disaster Coordinating Council (RDCC) of Bicol was holding an emergency meeting as of posting time to discuss how to deal with the Albay mudslide and the dreaded rise in casualties.

More devastation

In its 6 a.m. advisory, the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) identified the fatality in Camarines Sur as 33-year-old Salve Almasar.

No other details were immediately known about the incident, except that Almasar died after a flying GI sheet hit her.

Meanwhile, four students were feared dead in Rawis village, Albay after flashfloods reportedly swept them away. Authorities are still looking for the four students.

The NDCC also reported that at least 2,840 families or 13,928 persons were affected in 57 villages in 16 towns and three cities in seven provinces of Southern Luzon and Bicol.

At least 3,920 passengers, 189 trucks, 20 small vehicles, 47 passenger buses and 13 vessels are still stranded in various ports of Southern Luzon, Bicol and Eastern Visayas.

Many areas in Legazpi City also remained flooded. Radio station dzRH reported that as of 6 a.m. Friday, floods had "subsided" to chest level.

Down the mountain

Citing earlier estimates by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), Rosal said there were some 50 million cubic meters of mud and other material from Mayon.

Residents living near Mayon had been evacuated to safer ground earlier this year after the volcano showed signs of erupting.

Southern Luzon military commander Major Gen. Alexander Yano said provincial Governor Fernando Gonzalez has dispatched a medical team by chopper to the site.

He said the task force had earlier advised residents against venturing into Mayon's permanent danger zone will be remobilized for relief work.

"Our main concern at this moment is to get to those injured. We cannot get there by land because the roads are blocked," Yano said.

Now in Batangas, Mindoro

Even as it weakened after making landfall and rampaging through the Bicol region, typhoon "Reming" started wreaking havoc on Southern Luzon provinces Friday morning.

Initial radio reports said Reming (international codename: Durian) continued to pack strong winds that uprooted trees in Lucena City in Quezon province.

By 5 am Friday, at least 600 residents have been evacuated from San Narciso, Mulanay and Tanauan towns where strong winds were reported since 10 pm. Thursday.

In Marinduque province, Governor Carmencita Reyes said reports indicated that winds blew away galvanized-iron roofs from houses.

"Up to now the winds are still strong. Ill go around and inspect the area today," she said in Filipino during an interview on dzRH radio at 4 a.m.

Friday outlook

In its 5 a.m. advisory, the state weather bureau said "Reming" was heading toward the Batangas-Mindoro area, and was 40 kms northwest of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro, or 100 kms south of Metro Manila.

It packed maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 185 kph, and was moving west at 19 kph.

Reming was expected to be 390 kms west-southwest of Metro Manila or 390 kms west of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro Saturday morning; and 680 kms west-southwest of Metro Manila Sunday morning.

Signal 3 remained up over Lubang Island, Mindoro, Batangas, Laguna and Cavite provinces.

Signal 2 was up over Calamian Group of Islands, Marinduque, Quezon, Bataan, Rizal, and Metro Manila.

Signal 1 was up over Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Polillo Island, Camarines Norte, and Romblon.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals have been alerted against flashfloods and landslides, while those living in coastal areas under signals 2 and 3 have been advised to seek higher ground due to possible storm surge.

Flights canceled

Several airlines canceled domestic flights on Thursday while seagoing ships were advised not to sail.

Northwest Airlines flights in and out of the Philippines have been canceled as super typhoon Reming (international codename: Durian) nears Metro Manila Thursday evening.

The airlines has canceled its November 30 (Thursday) flights to Manila from Narita and Nagoya, as well as its December 1 (Friday) return flights from Manila to the same cities.

The following flights had been canceled:

US - Manila via Narita, Japan, Flight No. NW19, November 30
US - Manila via Nagoya, Japan, Flight No. NW71, November 30
Manila - US via Narita, Japan, Flight No. NW20, December 1
Manila - US via Nagoya, Japan, Flight No. NW72, December 1

- GMA Network

PS Received a message from a friend who lives in the town where some of the mudslides occurred. According to her, the situation is really bad and for the first time in her 27 years there flood waters reached the inside of their home. Legazpi City was in the direct path of Durian.

Durian, a killer for sure.My thoughts are with those Philipino people since yesterday, and tonight I'm realy sad..........
Sad news about the deaths.

This thing about the mudslide is the hidden killer in tropical systems. It's what made Mitch such a killer - mountains of mud flooding towns because of the massive amounts of rain.

yeah, Baha, and deforestation (man-caused or volcanic or whatever ) is usualy the reason for most of these terrible events. They (and everyone else) need to be replanting............
OK Cyclone, make it brief...........
According to the report of ABS-CBN news, more than 200 have killed in the mudslide in albay but NDCC needs this to be confirmed. so far, the confirmed deaths that i heard from them were already 19. winds here in metro manila is ranging from 0 to 70 kph.
and Cyclone, I'll bet you a dollar Dr. M has something to say about Sahara dust tomorow.............
and come to think of it, the BEST way to eliminate storms in the Atlatic, would be to bulldoze ALL the African forrests, to create more dust. How come I didnt think of this before.
Cyclone also does not consider the effects of El Nino and other weather patterns.
c'mon cyclone, its late here man..........
aspiringstat, thanks again for the info can we do anything for you or your area?
hi STL ,nasty weather for you ?
I am currently in a massive ice storm; here are the current conditions:

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Last Update on Nov 30, 8:51 pm CST
Freezing Rain Fog/Mist
Temperature: 31F (-1C)
Humidity: 92 %
Wind Speed: N 12 G 22 MPH
Barometer: 29.80" (1010.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 29F (-2C)
Wind Chill: 22F (-6C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi.

The number of power outages has doubled in like 15 minutes; if this continues, a 1998 type scenario could occur:

Updated: Nov 30 9:02 PM
Area Outages: 39,239
Here are the hourly observations for today.
yeah STL I was checking that earlier. Sounds pretty grim. Keep strong...
cyclone, what causes the cold water to flow up , that part beats me so far.........
Compare to 12 minutes earlier:

Updated: Nov 30 9:14 PM
Area Outages: 46,467
STL, I was stuck in an ice storm in Peoria Ill. some years ago. Stuck in an ice storm is bad, stuck in Peoria is terrible. But it sure was pretty when the sun came up............
Nowcast as of 8:29 PM CST on November 30, 2006
Winter Storm Warning in effect... dangerous weather conditions across the area. Moderate to heavy sleet mixed with freezing rain will continue throughout the remainder of the evening. Additional accumulations of sleet and freezing rain...on the order of 1 to 2 inches are possible by midnight. Travel across the area is treacherous as all roads are sleet and ice covered and very slick. The weight of the sleet and ice on trees and power lines could result in power outages and significant tree damage.
but you are trying to get a cold fluid to migrate vertically to a warmer zone. I doubt that.........
without affecting the temp??????
I remenber the Ice storm of 98 very well... 3-4 inches of ice accumulated where I lived. I had no power for 3 weeks in -20C temperatures but we did temporarily "move" to my uncles. Everything was covered in ice, EVERYTHING! It was just so unreal... 4 inches of ice on my parking lot, it was very slippery.
Steve, one of those ice storms is enough for me. My tropical metabolism went into agitation mode !!!!!!!!!!
Well Im sure that sentence is funny but I dont understand it. LOL...

This is enough for me as well but I didnt decide for it to happen (the 98 ice storm). Was very unpleasant...
OK Cyclone, But I'm still not convinced. But you know, the dust thing works, and all year long we heard " tropical development is being zapped by Sahara dust " or words to that effect anyway. I'm not disparaging your idea, its just that bulldozing Africa would be so much more in keeping with our current methods. Hell, we've done half the job already.......
Steve, I just meant that for a tropical person like me, not being able to go outside without having to dress up like an eskimo got me frantic....
hello sandcrab. sorry for replying late... we're having communication problems lately. i'm from the southern part of manila near cavite province.
Ok I understand now. Sorry but I sometimes don't get what people are saying cause im not perfectly english.
Reming' moving out of RP (as of 11:52 Manila time) - ABS-CBN news

Typhoon Reming (international codename Durian) left Mindoro before noon Friday and was moving west on its way to the South China Sea, weather bureau PAGASA said.

As of 11 a.m., Reming was spotted 50 kilometers southwest of Lubang Island with maximum sustained winds of 150 km per hour and gustiness of up to 185 kph. It was moving west at a slow pace of 15 kph.

PAGASA forecasts said Reming will be over South China Sea by Saturday morning and out of the country's area of responsibility by Sunday.

Public storm signal number 3 was still up over Occidental Mindoro and Lubang Island.

Signal number 2 was hoisted over Calamian Group of Island, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas and Cavite while signal number 1 was declared over Laguna, Bataan, southern Zambales and Metro Manila.

Reming entered the country Thursday as a super typhoon through Catanduanes with maximum sustained winds of 190 kph and gustiness of up to 225 kph.

It was the strongest typhoon to hit the country this year.

Earlier reports said about 40 people were confirmed killed while 100 more were missing after mudflows hit eight villages in several towns in Albay province due to heavy rains and strong winds brought on by the typhoon.

Albay Gov. Fernando Gonzalez told ABS-CBN News Channel he received confirmation that 40 people were killed in Barangays Padang and Santo Domingo in Legazpi City and Barangays Busay and Cullat in Daraga town. Earlier reports said at least 100 residents of Barangay Padang went missing after the mudflow.

"We've also received reports that other barangays were affected by mudflows but we don't have confirmation yet," he told ANC.

Gonzalez said the mudflow came from the eastern and southeastern slopes of Mount Mayon Thursday afternoon after the onslaught of heavy rains.

He said the provincial disaster coordinating council has deployed eight teams to conduct rescue and retrieval operations in the affected villages.

"Only the roofs can be seen in these barangays. Maharlika [Highway] is closed now because of debris from the mudflow and boulders," he added.

Gonzalez urged the Department of Public Works and Highways to immediately work to clear Maharlikay Highway of the debris.

He said several teams have been sent to barangays that were affected by the mudflows for search and rescue operations.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council had confirmed one fatality in Canaman, Camarines Sur identified as Salve Almasar, 33. Almasar reportedly died after being hit by a galvanized iron sheet.

Fourteen people were injured in Camarines Sur and brought for treatment at Bicol Medical Center in Naga City.

The Office of Civil Defense unit in Sto. Domingo, Albay said at least eight people were killed in floods.

Disaster officials said a total of 2,840 or 13,928 people were evacuated from 16 municipalities and three cities in Bicol and Southern Tagalog. A total of 3,920 passengers, 189 trucks, 20 small vehicles, 47 passenger buses and 13 vessels were stranded in various ports in Bicol, Southern Tagalog and Eastern Visayas.
Im out for the night, gotta go get some sleep and pottery when you experience -40 windchills you wont dress like an eskimo in temps in the 20s!
Latest Satellite Image from PAGASA

Yehey! Durian is moving out of the country!
nah cyclone dont try that ! The dust needs to be up there in the sky, soaking up all that lovely damp stuff.....
157. RL3AO
I've never been in a major ice storm. Most of the storms I get are all snow.
anyway its midnight here and I need to sleep. check you all tomorow. Hope all is under control in Philipines.
Where do you live AO?
Observed at: South County, Affton, Missouri
Elevation: 609 ft / 185 m
Temperature: 30.8 F / -0.7 C
Thunderstorm Freezing Rain Ice Pellets Mist
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 29 F / -2 C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.72 in / 1006.3 hPa
Visibility: 3.0 miles / 4.8 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 800 ft / 243 m
Overcast 1400 ft / 426 m
(Above Ground Level)

LOL... Freezing rain from a thunderstorm?
Only in the Midwest.
It's amazing though, where I live weather events like those only happen every hundred years or so. It is peaceful, but boring!
When my father was in the army, he was sent too train in Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri. He was stationed there from January through February and said it was the coldest place he'd ever been to in his life.
I heard that if the air gets cold enough while it's snowing, that the snow will stop falling and just meander very slowly to the ground. That would be quite a sight!
Mayon mudflows bury eight villages; death toll rising

108 bodies recovered as PNRC count hits 388

By Joel Guinto
Last updated 05:19pm (Mla time) 12/01/2006

(8TH UPDATE) MUDFLOWS from the slopes of the Mayon volcano, triggered by heavy rains from typhoon "Reming" (international codename: Durian) buried at least eight villages in Albay province, killing at least 108 people even as more bodies were being recovered.

In a phone interview with reporters, Albay Governor Fernando Gonzales said they have recovered at least 108 remains from villages in Santo Domingo and Daraga towns and added: "We're still recovering some more."

The Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) reported that 388 had died although PNRC chairman, Senator Richard Gordon, said he wanted the 200 reported killed in Barangay (village) Busay in Daraga town reconfirmed because the number was too big.

Earlier Gordon confirmed 146 dead and 75 missing or trapped on rooftops after the massive mudflow.

"This will probably rise a little bit more" as rescue teams enter areas which are now blocked by flooding and debris, he said.

PNRC director of fund generation Gwen Pang said the count of 200 came from the public safety office of Legazpi City while the 188 others came from PNRC volunteers from different areas.

Interviewed by reporters after a National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) meeting in Camp Aguinaldo, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said he has received unconfirmed reports that 200 died in the mudslides.

During the NDCC meeting, Duque said the Albay provincial government had requested for 200 cadaver bags.

"We do not have exact figures but we are looking at about 200 dead... principally in the vicinity of Mayon volcano," said Glenn Rabonza, NDCC executive officer also said.

Gonzales confirmed earlier figures given by provincial relief officer Cedric Daep who told Agence France-Presse that the bodies of those killed had been retrieved in the towns and villages of Daraga and Santo Domingo.

Gonzalez named some of the villages hit by the landslide as Cagsawa, Busay, Cullat and Malibago in Daraga, and Padang in Legazpi.

In a phone interview, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) deputy administrator Anthony Golez said the mudflows were as much as two stories deep in the hardest hit areas.

"All you can see are the rooftops," Gonzales said.

Daep warned that the toll could shoot up even further amid unconfirmed reports of large numbers of dead in Padang.

Jukes Nunez of the Provincial Disaster Coordinating Council said about 30 people were injured by boulders and roofing materials in Padang and taken to hospitals.

Elsewhere in the Philippines at least one person was killed in the town of Canaman after being hit by a piece of metal roofing blown off by the typhoon, the civil defense office said.

In the town of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro province, local officials reported at least three people, two of them children, were killed after a tree and an electric post fell on them at the height of the storm. Several people were also injured, they added.

They also said that homes had been damaged and trees uprooted by the strong winds.

They added that they were checking on a dam in the town of Bucayao amid reports of a leak.

In the Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) region, more 1,800 families were evacuated from landslide- and flood-prone areas as typhoon Reming battered the Southern Tagalog area, the OCD said.

Armando Duque, OCD-Calabarzon chair, said in a report that a total of 8,766 persons have been brought to 74 evacuation centers in the regions five provinces.

Duque said 128 villages in over 30 towns in the region were affected by the typhoon and, although there was no major flooding, he described damage as substantial with Laguna, Quezon and Batangas suffering the most.

Batangas alone, he said, had sent in an initial damage report of P3.66 million in agriculture and fisheries.

"We are getting reports that there are more and more casualties," Governor Gonzales said, adding that he expected the death toll to rise as more local officials reported in on the damage their communities had sustained.

Roel Ilarena, a resident of Padang, said as many as 500 people may have been killed when the mudflow struck overnight. Officials could not confirm his story.

"There are still a lot of missing, still a lot of bodies being dug out," the town's mayor Jerry Jucian said.

The Red Cross said a local resident reported as many as 200 had been killed, but it was unable to confirm the figure.

"It's terrible," Legazpi Mayor Noel Rosal told The Associated Press by phone after visiting the village Friday. "Based on our interviews with residents and village officials, more than 100 were killed or missing. Based on the bodies I saw, there could be no less than 20. I could not bear to look at some of them."

He later told ANC television that 23 had been killed and 139 were missing in Padang.

"The village was devastated, wiped out by the mud flow," Rosal said, adding the mudflows hit at around 3 p.m. Thursday and ended three hours later.

Rosal said some victims had their clothes ripped off as they were swept away by the mudslide.

"We now call this place a black desert," he said, referring to the color of the volcanic debris.

Around 30,000 residents of villages on the slopes of Mayon had been forced to evacuate in August when the volcano showed signs of erupting. They returned home in September after it simmered down.

"These are very big and very heavy mudflows. It buried many houses," Governor Gonzales said in a phone interview earlier in the day when asked about the situation in his province following the mudslides.

The mudflows were formed after rains washed down sediments and boulders deposited from previous eruptions on the Mayon slopes, said Renato Solidum, director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).

"These are very old deposits, not from the 2006 eruption, which were mobilized by the rains," Solidum told reporters at the sidelines of a National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) meeting in Camp Aguinaldo.

The most recent Mayon eruption involved only lava flows, which have hardened and could not be washed down by the rains, he said.

Solidum said scientists have yet to determine if the mudflow could be considered lahar.

Lahar is composed of at least 20 percent sediment by volume, anything less is considered mudflows, he said.

Rescue efforts were being hampered by storm damage which has knocked out electricity, telephone lines and even water services throughout much of the Bicol peninsula which includes Legazpi and Daraga, according to the AFP report.

Jucian said volcanic ash from the slopes of nearby Mayon volcano had mixed with rain from Reming to cause deadly landslides.

Governor Gonzales and Mayor Jucian said roads to the affected areas have been blocked by rocks washed down by the mudflow, floods, and landslides.

"Its a really bad situation here," the governor said.

In a separate interview, Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Administrator Glen Rabonza said "Remings" rains washed down debris from the volcano's slopes, which "then flowed to the rivers, causing them to overflow and reach the villages."

Regional police head Chief Superintendent Victor Buco said that search and rescue operations were going on but added that many people had already been evacuated.

The civil defense office said more than 13,900 people had been evacuated in the Bicol region.

The military was waiting for the weather to clear to bring helicopters into the affected area.

Legazpi City's airport was shut down as debris littered the runway and the windows and part of the roof of terminal had been destroyed by the storm.

With reports from Dennis Maliwanag, INQ7.net; Marlon Ramos, Inquirer Southern Luzon, GMA7, AFP, AP

source: www.inq7.net
Typhoon kills up to 200 in Philippines
Hundreds feared dead in Philippine landslides
Thank You,
aspiringstat and Rand For the article and News Report.

Thoughts and Prayers are with all.
Durian was very bad hundreds dead many missing ...

MANILA, Philippines - The fourth major typhoon to hit the Philippines in four months killed 198 people and left 260 others missing, officials said Friday.

Typhoon Durian caused flash floods and sent walls of muddy volcanic ash and red-hot boulders crashing down on several villages, the officials said.

Hey Randrewl, were you in Stuart over the holiday last week?
It was good to have a quiet season for a change. Hopefully, 2007 will be the same. See you all next June!
Man what a break that year was 2006, because this year Is not a 2006, we have Had 2 CAT 5 Landfalls.
13 storms 5 hurricanes 2 major, USA this year got hit by hurricanes. Mexico has been target this year, god bless all whom were effected By Hurricane Dean and Hurricane Felix.