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Hurricane season draws to a close

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on November 30, 2009

It's November 30, and the inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2009 is in the books. Residents all along the Atlantic coast can give thanks for this year's much-needed respite after the pummeling Mother Nature gave last year. The four direct deaths recorded this year represented the lowest death toll since the El Niño hurricane season of 1997, which also had four deaths. This year's season featured only nine named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which was 61%, 38%, and 51% of the 1995 - 2008 average activity for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, respectively, according to the end-of-season summary posted by the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team of Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray. Higher than average wind shear, and lower than average relative humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere were primarily responsible for this year's reduced activity (Figures 1 and 2). These conditions are common during El Niño years, and this year's moderate El Niño undoubtedly contributed to the low levels of Atlantic hurricane activity observed. In addition, a stronger and more southerly than usual mid-Atlantic trough was active during much of hurricane season, contributing to high wind shear over the Atlantic.


Figure 1. Departure of relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere (500 mb, about 18,000 feet) for the August - October peak portion of the 2009 hurricane season. Subsiding air due to El Niño conditions depressed the relative humidity up to 15% below average (red colors) over the tropical Atlantic. Image credit: end-of-season summary posted by the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team of Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray, with data from NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 2. Departure of wind shear from average for the peak 60-day period of the Atlantic hurricane season. The August-October averaged 200-850 mb vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region (MDR, 10-20°N, 20-70°W) was 9.3 m/s, which was the highest vertical shear magnitude over this three-month period since the El Niño year of 2002. The 2009 August-October MDR value was also approximately 2 m/s greater than the 1995-2008 average vertical shear. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Some other notable feature taken from the Klotzbach/Gray report:

A late-starting season. Ana did not form until August 15. This was the latest "A" storm of the season since Andrew formed in 1992 on August 17. However, the 2009 season exploded into a flurry of action August 15 - 16, when the Atlantic featured a rare triple threat of simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C--Ana, Bill, and Claudette. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1.

Nine named storms occurred during 2009. This is the fewest since 1997, when eight named storms formed.

27.25 named storm days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest named storm days since 1991, when only 24.25 named storm days were recorded.

Three hurricanes occurred in 2009. This is the fewest since 1997 when there were also three hurricanes.

Five named storms (Ana, Danny, Erika, Fred, and Henri) dissipated over the open ocean in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic this year. This is a fairly rare occurrence that typically only occurs in years such as this year that are characterized by high levels of tropospheric vertical wind shear.

11.25 hurricane days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest hurricane days since 2002 when 10.75 hurricane days were reported.

2 major hurricanes formed during the 2009 hurricane season. The last time that fewer than two major hurricanes occurred in a season was in 1997 when only one major hurricane (Erika) formed.

3.25 major hurricane days occurred in 2009. This is the fewest major hurricane days in a season since 2006 when only two major hurricane days were recorded.

The season accrued an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 50. The 1951 - 2005 average is 102.3, and the 2009 ACE was the lowest since 1997 (41) and the 16th lowest of the last 66 years since the aircraft reconnaissance era began in 1944.

No Category 5 hurricanes developed in 2009. This is the second consecutive year with no Category 5 hurricanes. The last time that two or more years occurred in a row with no Category 5 hurricanes was 1999-2002.

No named storms formed in June or July. The last time that no storm activity occurred in June or July was 2004 (Alex formed that year on August 1). This is the 18th year of the past 66 years with no storm formations in June or July.

August had above-average ACE activity. 29 ACE units were recorded during the month, which is approximately 125% of the 1950-2000 average.

58% of seasonal ACE was generated during the month of August. The last time that more than 58% of seasonal ACE was generated during the month of August was in 1942.

September was very quiet with only 11 ACE units generated during the month. This is the quietest September since 1994 when only 3 ACE units were recorded.

No ACE was generated between September 13 and October 4. The last time that this occurred was 1991. Prior to that, one has to go all the way back to 1925 to see no ACE generated during three of the most active weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season.

October was also very quiet with only 2 ACE units occurring. This is the quietest October since 1994 when no tropical cyclone activity occurred.

Only 13 ACE units occurred during the combined September-October period. This is the fewest ACE units during this two-month period since 1994 (3), and the fifth fewest since the aircraft reconnaissance era began in 1944.

Hurricane Bill generated 26 ACE units, or 52% of the seasonal total. The last time that one storm generated that much of the seasonal total was Erika in 1997 which generated 63% of the total ACE observed that year.

Hurricane Fred became the third storm on record to reach major hurricane status east of 35°W, although prior to 1972 when Dvorak satellite estimates from polar-orbiting satellite reconnaissance became routinely available, some storms may have been missed in the eastern part of the Atlantic basin.

Hurricane Ida became only the second hurricane to reach hurricane status in the Caribbean in November during an El Niño year (where El Niño is defined to be all years since 1950 where the October Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is 0.5ñC or greater). The only other storm to reach hurricane status in the Caribbean in November in an El Niño year was Martha in 1969.

Ida became the second latest tropical cyclone to make landfall along the Gulf Coast, trailing only Hurricane Kate in 1985 (which made landfall on November 21).

Only two tropical storms (Claudette and Ida) made U.S. landfall this year while no hurricanes made U.S. landfall. This is the first time since 2006 and the 13th time in the last 66 years where no hurricanes made U.S. landfall.

No hurricanes made landfall along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast. This marks the fourth year in a row with no hurricane landfalls along this portion of the U.S. coastline. The last time that we went four years between hurricane landfalls along the Florida Peninsula and East Coast was 1980-1983.

No major hurricanes made U.S. landfall this year. Following seven major hurricane landfalls in 2004-2005, the U.S. has not witnessed a major hurricane landfall in the past four years. The four consecutive years between 2000-2003 also experienced no major U.S. hurricane landfalls. Since 1995, the Atlantic basin has had 56 major hurricanes but only 10 (18%) have made U.S. landfall. The long-period average is that approximately 30% of major hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin make U.S. landfall.


Figure 3. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill was the strongest hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Bill peaked in intensity as a lower-end Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Bill was a very large storm, and had the fifth largest diameter of tropical storm force winds on record (460 miles). Bill brought tropical storm force winds of 46 mph to the Bermuda airport as the storm passed about 175 mi west of the island at Category 2 strength, during the morning of 22 August. The hurricane then recurved and turned to the northeast with increasing forward speed, brushed the south coast of Nova Scotia early on 23 August, and made landfall as a tropical storm near the Burin Peninsula of Newfoundland.

Top winds on Newfoundland were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT on 24 August. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.

There were two deaths associated with Bill. A 7-year-old girl died in Acadia National Park, Maine when she was swept into the water by large waves, and a 54-year-old swimmer drowned in New Smyrna Beach, Florida in rough seas caused by Bill. The large hurricane fueled high waves over a large portion of the Atlantic basin for several days. The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic reported that these waves produced coastal flooding and damage along the north coast of the Dominican Republic. Reports from Environment Canada indicate that in Nova Scotia power outages were common (tens of thousands of residences lost power) and there were road wash-outs and localized fresh water flooding. Coastal flooding from surge and waves was widespread along much of the Atlantic coast. On Long Island, NY, beach damage was severe; in some areas the damage was the worst since Hurricane Gloria in 1985. Along the coasts of North Carolina, waves averaging 10 ft (3.0 m) in height impacted beaches. In Wrightsville Beach, up to 30 rescues were made due to strong rip currents and large swells; however, only one incident resulted in hospitalization. Severe beach erosion took place at Bald Head Island, where 150 ft (46 m) of beach was washed away, resulting in the loss of the remaining sea turtle nests.


Figure 4. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

Tropical Storm Claudette
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT August 17, 2009, near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph as Claudette approached the coast. Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches were confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette did not cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. One death is being blamed on Claudette, a drowning off the Florida Panhandle coast.


Figure 5.. Hurricane Fred at peak strength, 8:55am EDT UTC 9/9/09. At the time, Fred was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Fred
Fred became only the fourth major hurricane on record in the far southeastern portion of the Atlantic basin (south of 30°N and east of 40°W) and is the only hurricane on record in the basin with an intensity greater than 100 kt when located south of 30°N and east of 35°W. However, it is important to note that prior to 1972 (when routine Dvorak classifications from polar-orbiting satellites began), it would have been difficult to assess the intensity of most tropical cyclones in this part of the Atlantic basin.


Figure 6. Tropical Storm Ida at 1 pm EST November 5, 2009. In this MODIS image captured seven hours after landfall, Ida was a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Ida
Hurricane Ida made landfall over eastern Nicaragua on November 4 as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds--the first November Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in an El Niño year since 1925. Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record as it approached Nicaragua. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). Ida is now tied for second place for fastest intensification from first advisory to hurricane strength. There have been six other storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours.

Ida survived its crossing of Nicaragua, and intensified once it emerged over the Caribbean, eventually reaching Category 2 strength over the Gulf of Mexico as it headed northwards towards the U.S. Gulf Coast. High wind shear and cool water temperatures caused Ida to weaken dramatically before landfall in Alabama, and Ida made landfall near Dauphin Island, Alabama at 5:40 am CST November 10, as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Winds at coastal locations during Ida's landfall were mostly below tropical storm force. One exception was Dauphin Island, where winds peaked at 40 mph, gusting to 50 mph, near midnight. Radar-estimated rainfall from Ida showed many regions received 3 - 5 inches of rain, which caused some minor river and street flooding. The main damage from Ida seems to have been beach erosion, as a 3 - 6 foot storm surge topped by battering waves affected a long stretch of coast, from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Ida drove a 5.5 foot storm surge to Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans). Ida was responsible for one death, a 70-year-old fisherman who knocked off of his boat in the Mississippi River by a wave as Ida approached.

The remnants of Ida merged with a Nor'easter that developed off the coast of North Carolina, and the Ida-energized Nor'easter brought the highest storm surges on record to the Atlantic coast between Norfolk, Virginia, and Lewes, Delaware.

Next year's hurricane season?
The Colorado State hurricane forecast team will be issuing their forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday, December 9. Expect them to forecast a more active season. Since 1950, there have been 17 El Niño events, and only one of them lasted through two full hurricane seasons. Thus, we can expect neutral or La Niña conditions for next year's hurricane season, which should lead to much higher levels of activity than in 2009.

Correction
In my previous post, on the Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked CRU emails, I mistakenly referred to the George C. Marshall Institute as the George C. Marshall Foundation. I have corrected the error, and apologize for the confusion. The George C. Marshall Institute is an organization active in the Manufactured Doubt campaign against human-caused global warming, while the George C. Marshall Foundation is a charitable organization celebrating the legacy of the great American general and Secretary of State, George C. Marshall.

Major storm brewing for the Gulf Coast
There's a major extratropical storm brewing over the northern Gulf of Mexico that could be as damaging as Tropical Storm Ida was, for the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. The storm is expected to hit Tuesday through Wednesday. A storm tide of 4 - 6 feet is forecast for the Florida Panhandle, 3 - 5 feet for the Alabama coast, and 3 - 4 feet for the New Orleans area. Consult the NOAA extratropical storm surge forecast page for forecasts of the storm surge from this event. I'll have a new post Tuesday and/or Wednesday to discuss this storm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. NRAamy
ya know there's been talk of the orange stuff today :)))

yeah...what's up with that?

;)
Quoting Patrap:


I have to check the PWS here,..but Id say maybe a Quarter inch,the big stuff will be overnight.

Thus the Flood Watch here and to the east.

NOLA/GOM WunderMap®



Ive gotten 1.11 inch so far
1003. Patrap

A look at the Current Still Setup from NOAA



GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image Meteorologists use color enhanced imagery as an aid in satellite interpretation. The colors enable them to easily and quickly see features which are of special interest. Usually they look for high clouds or areas with a large amount of water vapor. In an infrared (IR) image cold clouds are high clouds, so the colors typically highlight the colder regions. The bar on the right side of the image indicates the pixel brightness values for the corresponding color. The temperature can be determined from the following formulas: For B > 176 T = 418 - B or when B <=176 T = 330 - (B/2) Note that the resulting temperatures are in Kelvin.
weatherman874, where are you stationed at?
Quoting P451:
What Reed is trying to post.



Thanks :)

I think the new area convection will be moving in the direction of the Carolinas, while an intense line of storms forms in the GOM. Will be watching the situation closely.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
weatherman874, where are you stationed at?


Lakeview, New Orleans
1009. aquak9
Quiet and calm here in Jacksonville. (that's north florida, by the way)

Twenty-four hours to go?
1010. NRAamy
Twenty-four hours to go?

"Twenty Twenty Twenty-four hours to go! I wanna be sedated!"
1011. icmoore
Quoting NRAamy:
ya know there's been talk of the orange stuff today :)))

yeah...what's up with that?

;)


Oh Amy like some little old 50 something year old lady would have an answer to that? :)
1012. NRAamy
ic...where's Jerry when we need him!

:)

1013. Patrap
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling) Uptown NOLA currently.

Nowcast as of 5:35 PM CST on December 1, 2009

Now
Through 745 PM...widespread light to moderate rain will continue to fall across south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Expect rainfall rates across most of the area to range from one tenth to one quarter of an inch per hour.

1015. aquak9
hi amy

STP- Plush- a good weather line- right back at ya :)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009...

...A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 6 PM WEDNESDAY AND 3 AM THURSDAY.

Looks like I am in for some action tomorrow.
1017. Patrap
from 22:25Z 1 Dec



1018. icmoore
LOL Amy maybe if we concentrate together saying FLood, Flood, Flood he will appear :)
1019. hydrus
The only man made thing that causes global warming is the giant zippo firing up one of Tommy Chongs homemade bongs. Al Gore already knows this but is doing better politically and financially based on the current theories...jk
1020. aquak9
man we're all looking around going "what where when"

hi icey....tomorrow night, let it rain and blow.
1021. NRAamy
1020. aquak9 4:08 PM PST on December 01, 2009
man we're all looking around going "what where when"


hahahahahahaha!
Classic V shape showing up on water vapor - always an indicator for tornadic activity
1023. Patrap
Winds offshore gusting Higher as the Cyclogenesis takes hold.

Station SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06

Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )

Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 32.1 kts

Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.1 kts

Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.2 ft

Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec

Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 62.6 °F

Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 66.4 °F



Tide (above MLLW) Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): 3.50 ft
Quoting Chucktown:
Classic V shape showing up on water vapor - always an indicator for tornadic activity


Is the v-shape indicative of a strong upper trough (cold air aloft), which means less stability and thus more thunderstorm potential?
1025. icmoore
#1020

Aquak rain is fine but let's keep the blowin' to a minimunm :)
1026. Walshy
Looks like a I made a good call way back around post #460 that North Carolina might get some snow late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Today, another major consistent model has joined together supporting snow according to my local met. Still several days out so we will have to wait and see if they change.

Quoting Walshy:
Looks like a I made a good call way back around post #460 that North Carolina might get some snow late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Today, another major consistent model has joined together supporting snow according to my local met. Still several days out so we will have to wait and see if they change.



I am stationed in Raleigh, how much snow possible here (I just wish it would snow here)?
Quoting weatherman874:


Lakeview, New Orleans

I can see that ~1 inch...

Quoting atmoaggie:

I can see that ~1 inch...



Yes Yes, still comng down actually just has a rain rate of .69
1030. Patrap
Itsa squeaker,but boy..what a Possibility

Is the map in post 1030 snowfall potential for friday and saturday (for me, that would mean only 0.1" to virtual no snow, BORING)?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
253 PM PST TUE DEC 1 2009


MEANWHILE AND MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE FORMER SUPER TYPHOON
NIDA EJECTS NE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND HELPS TO ENHANCE THE EAST
ASIAN JET. AS A RESULT...THE OLD TROPICAL FEATURE BEGINS TO BOMB OUT
NEAR 175W 935-945MB LOW (12Z SAT-00Z SUN).
NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN DOES
THIS SYSTEM MOVE EASTWARD? THE MODELS HAVE SOME AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THE LOW W OF 170W THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BUT THEN THEY BRING IT
EASTWARD WITH LOTS OF GUSTO AND MOISTURE. THE EURO IS THE QUICKEST
WITH THE ONSET OF MOISTURE AND THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE CLOSER TOGETHER.
THINK THE EURO MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK AND THE CANADIAN WOULD BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE. THAT MEANS...LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE REAL
ONSET OF MODERATE RAINFALL COULD START TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXACT DETAILS REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL A WEEK OUT...BUT IF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN THE BALLPARK COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED.
1033. Walshy
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am stationed in Raleigh, how much snow possible here (I just wish it would snow here)?



Depends where the deformation sets up and the track of the low Friday night into Saturday morning.

Yesterday one model supported snow, today another came on board. Therefore, chances are about 30% of snow from a line west on Winston Salem to the mountains but east of Greensboro to your area may start rain/snow mix then change to rain before ending.

However, I believe this will change because its several days out. Each day the chances will increase by about 10% and the models will shift with the track so you need to monitor this each day. Chances are going up for a winter precip for NC since the first model predicted this. Totals would be just guessing.

Of course I have seen many instances where your area gets a lot because the low hugs the coast so my area west does not get nothing! Right now it may be far enough west for the whole state to see winter weather on the onset.
To post 1032,

An extratropical cyclone bombing out at 935 to 945 mb? WHOAA.. Does anyone know the record for the strongest extratropical cyclone ever?
Pensacola surge max maybe 3' is coming up in the next several hours.
anyone else here thinking we could get a bow echo derecho?
Pressure down to 29.54" at the Grand Island station: Link
Quoting Patrap:
Itsa squeaker,but boy..what a Possibility


Telling the wife not to hold her breath and am certainly not mentioning it to the 5-year-old...he'll learn how to "Awww, shucks" soon enough without me telling him it might snow and then it doesn't happen.
1039. Patrap
Hi Tazaroo..looks like your gonna get some wind rain/snow big time dude.
1040. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

Telling the wife not to hold her breath and am certainly not mentioning it to the 5-year-old...he'll learn how to "Awww, shucks" soon enough without me telling him it might snow and then it doesn't happen.


If I recall..that youngun pegged last years event atmo..
1041. aquak9
elConando- hush.

icey- if you're still here- might wanna check the yard, seems like I remember you got a few bird feeders, etc. Just as a precaution.
Quoting P451:
The director of the embattled Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in the United Kingdom is stepping down pending an investigation into allegations that he overstated the case for man-made climate change.

In a statement posted to its Web site, the University of East Anglia says Phil Jones will relinquish his position until the completion of an independent review into allegations that he worked to alter the way in which global temperature data was presented.

Link


Interesting spin from Fox News. The actual press release from The University of East Anglia:

Professor Phil Jones has today announced that he will stand aside as Director of the Climatic Research Unit until the completion of an independent Review resulting from allegations following the hacking and publication of emails from the Unit.

Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support."

Vice-Chancellor Professor Edward Acton said: "I have accepted Professor Jones's offer to stand aside during this period. It is an important step to ensure that CRU can continue to operate normally and the independent review can conduct its work into the allegations.

%u201CWe will announce details of the Independent Review, including its terms of reference, timescale and the chair, within days. I am delighted that Professor Peter Liss, FRS, CBE, will become acting director.%u201D



A previous press release from the University on the investigation:

We have, therefore, decided to conduct an independent review, which will address the issue of data security, an assessment of how we responded to a deluge of Freedom of Information requests, and any other relevant issues which the independent reviewer advises should be addressed.


Link
To Walshy in Post 1033,

Thanks for the explanation. Speaking of storms hugging the coast, that reminded me of the "Carolina Crusher" in January 2000 when we got 22 inches. And in the years before that, we used to get good snow each winter, and since 2000, it seems Raleigh hasn't gotten any real snow. Do you know if there a climatological pattern (some decadal oscillation) responsible?
1044. NRAamy
aqua...you're such a mom!!

:)
1045. hydrus
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
To post 1032,

An extratropical cyclone bombing out at 935 to 945 mb? WHOAA.. Does anyone know the record for the strongest extratropical cyclone ever?
You can Google that, i think there was a storm in 1967 that held the record for a while. It was huge. It was near Belgium .
1046. aquak9
well, amy...icey does have some of the most beautiful bird pics I've seen, all from her backyard. She lives probably about an hour away...so I know her yard has got to be very bird friendly.

Hate to see her lose any of her bird stuff.
1047. Walshy
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
To Walshy in Post 1033,

Thanks for the explanation. Speaking of storms hugging the coast, that reminded me of the "Carolina Crusher" in January 2000 when we got 22 inches. And in the years before that, we used to get good snow each winter, and since 2000, it seems Raleigh hasn't gotten any real snow. Do you know if there a climatological pattern (some decadal oscillation) responsible?




Not that I know of but maybe its the El Nino this year being stronger. The year 2000 to 2005 had a more active hurricane season compared to this year, so maybe then it was a La Nina or weak El Nino year back then.
1048. xcool
all news channel in n.o talk about snow fox8. wwltv
1049. IKE
So far...so good....

Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
1050. icmoore
Thanks Aquak secure bird feeders check LOL! You don't get much nerder than me a weather nut and a birder but still cool :}
1051. Walshy
Quoting IKE:
So far...so good....

Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received


Lets hope that continues into tomorrow.
If you want to try something fun... connect our laptop up to a 50" Flat screen... wow :)




AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
oh, darn,, where is stormw,, i hope we dont have to stop dads bday party on sat,, dad had a major american legion meeting tonite,, any one care to offer any ideas on our weather 4 12 o2 o9,, then 12 o5 ,, got like alot of elderly family coming, and the party is outside,redneck , i know,, but dad likes it that way
1054. aquak9
ike- bring that good mojo all the way into Duval, Putnam, Baker, Clay, and StJohn's counties, could you please? For about, oh, 24-36 hours?

icey- nope not nerdy- you're ultra cool in my book.
1055. aquak9
hey pinehurst?

consider a bonfire. A BIG one.
1057. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ike- bring that good mojo all the way into Duval, Putnam, Baker, Clay, and StJohn's counties, could you please? For about, oh, 24-36 hours?

icey- nope not nerdy- you're ultra cool in my book.


I'm sending good karma your way!
College of Charleston Observatory, Charleston, South Carolina (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
53.3 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 48 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 30.10 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 64 ft

1059. IKE
1060. unf97
Quoting IKE:


I'm sending good karma your way!


Let's hope so Ike.
1061. aquak9
that's a little, uhmm..unnerving, Skye.

Thought rainbow would look better- nope.
we have 3 set up,, i really thought it would be 58 degrees and sunshine,, on sat,, how things have changed,, btw , thanks for the info
Quoting Tazmanian:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
253 PM PST TUE DEC 1 2009


MEANWHILE AND MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE FORMER SUPER TYPHOON
NIDA EJECTS NE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND HELPS TO ENHANCE THE EAST
ASIAN JET. AS A RESULT...THE OLD TROPICAL FEATURE BEGINS TO BOMB OUT
NEAR 175W 935-945MB LOW (12Z SAT-00Z SUN).
NEXT QUESTION IS WHEN DOES
THIS SYSTEM MOVE EASTWARD? THE MODELS HAVE SOME AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
THE LOW W OF 170W THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...BUT THEN THEY BRING IT
EASTWARD WITH LOTS OF GUSTO AND MOISTURE. THE EURO IS THE QUICKEST
WITH THE ONSET OF MOISTURE AND THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE CLOSER TOGETHER.
THINK THE EURO MAY BE A LITTLE TO QUICK AND THE CANADIAN WOULD BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE. THAT MEANS...LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE REAL
ONSET OF MODERATE RAINFALL COULD START TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE EXACT DETAILS REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL A WEEK OUT...BUT IF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN THE BALLPARK COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED.


Nida is not gone: it seems to be ejecting a second piece into the jet, and afterwards Nida itself should decouple into two parts due to opposing steering influences: the high to the east pulling it to the north, and the high to the west along with the new disturbance pulling it to the south and west. However, a second storm larger than Nida is currently seems to be rapidly organising, and is filling in the gap in the subtropical ridge left open by Nida. There also seems to be a separate eastern flank of this new storm being pulled toward Nida. If this continues then the gap in the high may become a quasi-permanent feature this winter, disrupting weather patterns worldwide. Which is why it's important to do something. By the way, it appears that the 1993 storm formed under less extreme conditions than the current low in the Gulf, the front, the low pressure system near New Mexico, and the Alberta clipper, all colliding over Southern Ontario around Thursday. Link
Quoting Patrap:


If I recall..that youngun pegged last years event atmo..

Yeah, a ~380 hour forecast for snow in SE LA from a 4-year-old...
...that verified perfectly.

No mention from him about this event and I am reluctant to influence the output through suggestion given past performance. I would hate to ruin it...
1065. Walshy
Mountain and foothill snow. Rain snow mix for Piedmont on the onset. My local NWS for the western part of the state and the one in Raleigh both are uncertain how fast the cold air will move east to Raleigh before the moisture leaves.

Here is my local NWS


For sake of agreement...lets say this system does move in with
precipitation. GFS forecast soundings showing a shallow warm surface
boundary layer...less than a 1000 feet along the foothills and frozen
sounding across the mountains. If precipitation does fall Saturday
morning...it will mostly likely be snow. Into the
Piedmont...boundary layer a little thicker and around 1400-1800 feet
for p-type to be rain...possibly mixed with snow early. Of course
this depends on the GFS verifying...which has a history of a cold
bias during the cool season...especially in the long range.

1066. xcool
SATURDAY
A 50% chance for morning light rain possibly mixed with flurries or sleet. Mostly cloudy and chilly in the afternoon. Lows north of the lake around 34 and south of the lake around 38. Highs around 53.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/7-Day-Forecast-68638297.html
1067. unf97
Good evening aquak9.
1068. icmoore
Thank you Aquak your're Super-Ultra cool in my book :)

We are havin' a luv in here Amy and Flood is missing well that just doesn't seem right somehow !
Pres. Obama on in a minute for a major speech.
Quoting xcool:
SATURDAY
A 50% chance for morning light rain possibly mixed with flurries or sleet. Mostly cloudy and chilly in the afternoon. Lows north of the lake around 34 and south of the lake around 38. Highs around 53.

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/7-Day-Forecast-68638297.html


Yet another 50% chance forecast? The weather is getting more unpredictable by the hour.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Yet another 50% chance forecast? The weather is getting more unpredictable by the hour.

Yeah, started doing that 30 years ago...
Quoting Walshy:


Lets hope that continues into tomorrow.
according to the weather service, the worse weather will get here tomorrow. I have to take wife to work at the New Harmony Baptist Church Preschool on north 1087. It was rough picking her up this evening.
1073. xcool
yeah i hopeing .let it snow let it snow let it snow oh boy
There was an extratopical storm near the Faeroe Islands on the night of Jan 9-10, 1993 that bottomed out at 912/913 mb. That is the record.
1075. aquak9
Hi UNF. (my dau goes there)

You're north of the DP bridge, right? Gonna be a fun evening tomorrow. Hate it when SPC puts them green arrows above and below us.
Our low has just passed inland near Grand Isle and pressures have started to rise:

Link
On firefly, i just downloaded the weather addon and it is cool. I just put the cursor on the globe on bottom of my screen and the national radar comes up, put it on the umbrella and the precipitation forecast map for the next 5 days shows up, and then put it on the red triangle and the national alert map shows up.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pres. Obama on in a minute for a major speech.


Respectfully, I dont care :)

Storm is developing nicely in the Gulf, tomorrow could be historic!
1079. aquak9
Storm is developing nicely in the Gulf, tomorrow could be historic!

reedzone, HUSH!

(well it worked for elconando, hahaha)
1080. unf97
Quoting aquak9:
Hi UNF. (my dau goes there)

You're north of the DP bridge, right? Gonna be a fun evening tomorrow. Hate it when SPC puts them green arrows above and below us.


I am a graduate from UNF 1997, thus the origin for my user name here on the WU blog.

Yeah, it looks like if the severe threat manifests here in NE FL will be late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, depending on the timing of the squall line that is progged by the models to come through this region.
1083. Patrap
Quoting IKE:
So far...so good....

Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received



U sound dissapointed.
Just relax,.its gonna pop real soon for many.
1084. IKE
Rain in New Orleans is about over. Bark worse than the bite with this system....so far...

Quoting reedzone:


Respectfully, I dont care :)



And a smiley face to boot!
1086. IKE
Quoting Patrap:



U sound dissapointed.
Just relax,.its gonna pop real soon for many.


Heck no...I'm glad.
1087. Patrap
The severe threat isnt going to Pop till the Warm front Moves inland,as it is Now..

The energy from the ULL is Going to Swing in from the west and infuse the Warm sector..

The Severe threat is mainly offshore and the Coastal Regions,..but High Winds and excessive rainfall is going the be the biggest impact tonight thru the morning along the GOM coastal sections.,,along with High Tides and and Surge in areas prone to it.



You’re such a downcaster Ike :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes...another Reed super storm is more important than our men and women going into combat to defend our security. Yes...snow and rain trump the lives of our brave members of the Armed Forces. BTW...are you not the blogger who said Katrina was a punishment by God on New Orleans and was a sign of the end of times?


Flagged and reported. I didn't say Superstorm, I said a historic outbreak for my part of the state. We rarely get good severe weather events. I do care about our Country, the laws it was founded on by the grace of God. I can care less about our President. That's what I meant, but didn't want to offend others, but oh well, it came out. No offense to the people who voted for him, we all have free will to choose and vote, it's what makes America a free country!
1090. Patrap
Quoting IKE:


Heck no...I'm glad.


I know Ike, twas just yanking ya some ..but the worst isnt what your seeing..that energy is coming and is gonna spike a real Squall Line..the Frontal Depression Phase of this one is winding up and the real show is gonna occur after 10pmCDT..



1091. Patrap
1092. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You’re such a downcaster Ike :)


LOL.

I see a TVS ESE of NO,LA...racing ENE...
1093. Patrap
GOES-12 WV Big Loop





1094. Patrap
can anyone try to answer post 1036?
1096. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Our low has just passed inland near Grand Isle and pressures have started to rise:

Link


Agree...low is moving inland.
Quoting aquak9:
Storm is developing nicely in the Gulf, tomorrow could be historic!

reedzone, HUSH!

(well it worked for elconando, hahaha)


???
1098. Patrap
Now ..as the first phase of the fray is Moved inland ,,the warm sector is now on the Coast from Boothville ove to Ikes way..

That was the Puppy.

Now..take a GAnder at the Radar to the west and run the cycles in the advanced side of things.

The Pit Bull is about to get loose from his Chain..and hes Hungry.

NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI


1099. Patrap
Well..I gave ya my take.


Agreeing is fine..share a beer too..LOL

But if your East of Houston with a South Wind..be prepared overnight.

Thats MY story and im sticking to it.

Quoting Patrap:
Well..I gave ya my take.


Agreeing is fine..share a beer too..LOL

But if your East of Houston with a South Wind..be prepared overnight.

Thats MY story and im sticking to it.


Pat..is this historic...never before seen...a sign of the end of times?
1101. Patrap
I dont Doomcast..I leave that to,er,..others.

And those I have iggy for, well till the 21st of Dec 2012,,,LOL

Survived doom a few times..I like this side of the story MUCH better.

1102. aquak9
was just kidding with ya earlier, elconando...that's all.
1103. Patrap
Bueller..?

Bueller..?

Ferris Bueller..?

..anyone?

LOL

1104. aquak9
elconando- post 1036

that's why I was telling you to hush, cause I'd be in it's path. No, no derechos.
Quoting Patrap:
Bueller..?

Bueller..?

Ferris Bueller..?

..anyone?

LOL


Hes been absent 9 times!
1106. BtnTx
Quoting Patrap:
Well..I gave ya my take.


Agreeing is fine..share a beer too..LOL

But if your East of Houston with a South Wind..be prepared overnight.

Thats MY story and im sticking to it.


Patrap is spot on tonight with his forecast, I am East of Houston in Baytown, looking for snorkle..
Quoting aquak9:
elconando- post 1036

that's why I was telling you to hush, cause I'd be in it's path. No, no derechos.


as am I? but for your sake if you really feel like I can start up a ******* just from typing it, i shall refrain.
1108. aquak9
sorry elconando, I have no idea where you're located.

No offense intended. :)
Quoting Patrap:


Yours truly here turns 50 Jan 15th.

But who's counting?..LOL


After hitting the big 5-0, my husband solved the birthday problem by celebrating them only once every 5 years. He is now 55 and enjoying life.
Pensacola, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 16 min 44 sec ago
56 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 97%
Dew Point: 55 °F
Wind: 16 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 22 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 118 ft
Hello all. I'm here in Mobile and We haven't seen any real snow since 97. We had sleet in 04. The snowline from the NO storm last year didn't make it past Hattiesburg. It seems like every time there's a southeast snow event, the snowline never makes it to us.

Anyway, I really want it to snow here. Hopefully the el nino will make that possible. Looking at pat's post with the snow probability, it says that we'll get .1%

Is that really Possible?..
anybody got a gfs link? my computer is acting up
1113. Patrap
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)

Rain
56.3 °F
Rain Mist

Warmed up 5.5 degrees here last Hour..the warm fronts on the move North..the Big wheel to the west is on the Move..

The Flue is OPEN,..wonder what will happen next..?


Bueller..?

Bueller..?

Ferris Bueller..?
nhc is saying snow for houston are they still calling for 4-6 in.?
1115. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

1117. Patrap
Storm tops to 43K offshore and on the Move EnE..


NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Local Text Forecast for
Houston, TX

Dec 1 Tonight
Cloudy with rain ending overnight. Low around 45F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Rainfall near a half an inch.
Dec 2 Tomorrow
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High near 55F. Winds WNW at 15 to 25 mph.
Dec 2 Tomorrow night
A few clouds from time to time. Low around 40F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Dec 3 Thursday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 40s.
Dec 4 Friday
Showers. Highs in the upper 40s and lows in the low 30s.
Dec 5 Saturday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low 40s.
Dec 6 Sunday
Chance of showers. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 50s.
Dec 7 Monday
Few showers. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 50s.
Dec 8 Tuesday
Few showers. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the low 50s.
Dec 9 Wednesday
Showers. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 40s.
Dec 10 Thursday
Occasional showers possible. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

1119. Patrap


619
fxus64 klix 020114
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
714 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2009


Update...
sounding discussion...


Moderate rainfall occurred at launch...no problems with the
flight. The atmosphere is very saturated up to near 550
mb...precipitable water value is 1.63 inches. Stratiform rain has
been occurring throughout the day over the entire County Warning Area. A frontal
inversion is shown near 2000 feet on the sounding while winds are
out of the east at the surface then shifts south then southwest
aloft...winds are relatively strong at all levels.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 351 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2009/


Short term...


A strong Gulf low currently deepening over the western Gulf of
Mexico will continue to be the main weather feature of note over
the next 72 hours. A broad shield of light to moderate rain has
overspread the region...and will remain in place through the late
evening hours. Heading into tonight and early tomorrow
morning...the low is expected to track across southeast Louisiana
and coastal Mississippi.


As the low deepens and approaches the region...the gradient flow
will increase dramatically. This strong gradient flow is due to a
combination of the deepening low...and a fairly strong surface
high parked over the southeastern states. Winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour
will be possible over coastal Louisiana and Mississippi during the
overnight hours. The winds will begin to die off during the day
tomorrow...as the low quickly pulls off to the northeast. In
addition to the wind...it appears that a risk of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms could develop over coastal Louisiana
late tonight. Overall instability parameters remain very
weak...with cape values of 500 j/kg or less. However...strong low
level shear will allow for a risk of strong winds and isolated
tornadoes overnight. It appears that extreme coastal Louisiana
will have the best chance of any severe weather tonight. A third
concern will be the possibility of some coastal flooding outside
of the protection levees. Strong easterly flow over the next 12
hours should push tides about 1 to 2 feet above normal along east
facing shores.


However...given the short duration of stronger
winds...more significant coastal flooding is not expected. Due to
this...have only went with an advisory and not a warning for
coastal flooding.


A final impact from this strong Gulf low will be heavy rainfall.
The light to moderate stratiform precipitation should be replaced
by a heavier rainfall and some elevated convection. These elevated
thunderstorms could dump very heavy rainfall of 2 to 3 inches in a
short amount of time. Due to the risk of heavy rains from these
thunderstorms...have went with a Flash Flood Watch for coastal
Mississippi and Louisiana. In addition...drainage may be slowed by
the higher than normal tides.


The surface low will lift into the southern Appalachians by
Wednesday afternoon. However...a very strong upper level low will
be transiting through the lower Mississippi Valley. This cold
upper level feature should provide enough instability to produce a
few showers and keep lingering cloud cover over the area through
Wednesday evening. Skies will rapidly clear Wednesday night...as
strong subsidence in the wake of the upper level low advects into
the region. These clear skies and dry conditions will persist
through Thursday night.
1120. amd
looking at the latest RGB looping in the Gulf of Mexico, it looks like the upper level system in west texas is interacting with the low just south of central louisiana by injecting some energy into the thunderstorm line in the gulf.

Link

It may be too late for severe weather in New Orleans, but Mobile to just east of Pensacola may have to deal with some substantial severe weather later tonight.

Also, I'm interested to see if the ULL and the low in the gulf merges more as both lift to the NNE. If this occurs, there could be a very low pressure (relative to normal, maybe at 985 mb or below) in the Ohio Valley tomorrow or tomorrow night.
1121. beell
Low maybe not on shore yet.



So, this Gulf low leaves me with a disturbing conclusion. It could merge together with the tornadic-looking part in the Gulf, the low near New Mexico (which looked like a hurricane on land several hours ago), a cold front, clashing air masses, and an Alberta Clipper merging on Thursday, along with a deepening of the Hudson Bay low. The GFS forecast seems to predict the disruption of the Aleutian low, North Atlantic low, Bermuda high, Hudson Bay low, and Arctic high in about a week, and those are important regulators of the Thermohaline. I live in S. Ontario but I cannot find out what the weather will be like tomorrow. Maybe we'll have some cold heavy rain...or maybe we'll have 30C weather with tornadoes and hail. And if the weather is crazy tomorrow, you can bet it'll be crazier on Thursday, when the entire low explodes directly over my head.
1123. Patrap
GOES-12 WV Big Loop

Pat...for god's sake....please don't say 'storm top"
1125. Patrap
oceanweather.com,data

One to bookmark for the winter
1126. beell
Warm front or boundary from N of Tampa, towards the MS coast and over towards New Orleans-as an opinion of course.

1127. Patrap
Hey press..I heard he got busted at the Voodoo fest Halloween Night..he kinda got cranky with Gene Simmons from the Kiss Performance and well..it was ugly.
Cops,..GFDL rants,.some Office talk.

Twas a Real Bad scene.

I have some pics but Ill show ya when ya get to NOLA.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
So, this Gulf low leaves me with a disturbing conclusion. It could merge together with the tornadic-looking part in the Gulf, the low near New Mexico (which looked like a hurricane on land several hours ago), a cold front, clashing air masses, and an Alberta Clipper merging on Thursday, along with a deepening of the Hudson Bay low. The GFS forecast seems to predict the disruption of the Aleutian low, North Atlantic low, Bermuda high, Hudson Bay low, and Arctic high in about a week, and those are important regulators of the Thermohaline. I live in S. Ontario but I cannot find out what the weather will be like tomorrow. Maybe we'll have some cold heavy rain...or maybe we'll have 30C weather with tornadoes and hail. And if the weather is crazy tomorrow, you can bet it'll be crazier on Thursday, when the entire low explodes directly over my head.
So basically, you can expect CRAZY weather with periods of exploding low's and people name Alberta? Wait a minute !
Look at how the temp rose as the low pressure center approached Grand Isle, and then fell back down after the center passed---I know its because Grand Isle was warm sectored very briefly, but it looks as if the storm is warm core ;) Link
Well, PaTrap, Richard Simmons was raised in the French Quarter--He would be worse than Gene Simmons when he's cranky!
1131. Patrap
from 2.5 hours ago..Note the Low MB near the La. Boot..

then note the Low MB near the lower Texas coast,thats the energy a coming..

BAda Boom,bada Bing..



1132. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well, PaTrap, Richard Simmons was raised in the French Quarter--He would be worse than Gene Simmons when he's cranky!


Yeah,,..I've met him a few times..But dem shorts scare me every time too..LOL
Dem shorts might scare me straight PaTrap. Naaaaaah ;)
1134. Patrap
Yeppers..that Squall Line is Growing and teleconnecting, and morphing as it Hauls But EnE tonight.

Some are gonna get way-layed after bed time. This is bad..this IZ a bad thing.





Someone iz gonna have a bad night..
1136. Patrap
1137. beell
crap, i hate when i do that...
Geoffrey, I'm gonna have to open another can of worms ;)

Low pressure is now over Chandeleur Sound, just SW of this buoy: Link
LOL Rich....I don't know which is worse :)
1140. Patrap
Some of those cells...well one big un is moving ENe at 64 knots

K2 55 dBZ 18,000ft ft. 64 knots SW (21
1141. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Houston-Galveston, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI


First pressure reading to hit 1000 mb in this storm: Link
Quoting Yalahaman:
So basically, you can expect CRAZY weather with periods of exploding low's and people name Alberta? Wait a minute !


Link
And I forgot to mention the fifth system, the front near Minnesota.
1144. Patrap

Current Conditions

NOS_NWLON Grand Isle, LA, Grand Isle, Louisiana (PWS)



Updated: 34 min 2 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
53 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Wind: 25 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 32.0 mph
Pressure: 29.61 in (Falling)
Notice how the temp is rising at 42007 as the center gets closer....and closer....and closer.
1146. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Some of those cells...well one big un is moving ENe at 64 knots

K2 55 dBZ 18,000ft ft. 64 knots SW (21
64 kts is fast. Fastest I have seen is 90 mph.
1147. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

1148. Patrap
1149. Patrap

Hazardous marine condition(s):
Gale Warning

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES
MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.



GMZ080-020930-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
930 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

GALE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 92W


TONIGHT
WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 27N AND ELSEWHERE E OF COLD
FRONT E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S WINDS E OF COLD
FRONT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. W OF COLD FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS.

WED
W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS ALONG FRONT.

WED NIGHT
NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
Low is now just southwest of 42007, pressure 29.51"--the buoy updating every half hour:

Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like nasty weather up north.

North of whom, Florida?

LOL, you and Houston.
Evening Pat. Got some pretty good gusts here about an hour ago. Calm again now. Looks like it may get interesting later tonight. I was in NO last night for the game. What a game it was! Who Dat?! And that was without Reggie.
1153. Patrap
Quoting iluvjess:
Evening Pat. Got some pretty good gusts here about an hour ago. Calm again now. Looks like it may get interesting later tonight. I was in NO last night for the game. What a game it was! Who Dat?! And that was without Reggie.


Wow,,,you were in the Eye of the Black & Gold storm Eh..?

One for the Books..one Regime falls..another arises.

Finally..

Ive only been waiting for 43 years.
1154. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Ive only been waiting for 43 years.


who knows how long Flood has been waiting.... :P
Extract from this evening's Charleston wx discussion:

AS FAR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALL THE INGREDIENTS
CONTINUE TO LOOK IN LINE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EVOLUTION...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE...LI/S
WILL PUSH INTO THE -2 TO -4C RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE ELIMINATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL QG FORCING...ENTRANCE REGION FORCING FROM A
130 KT UPPER JET...MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO BETWEEN 6.5
AND 7.0 C/KM ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 65 TO 75
KT...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION WITH
OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITH 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 70 KT PROGGED BY BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...ENERGY HELICITY
INDICES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1...AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES MAXING OUT
IN THE 400-500 M2/S2...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND TORNADOES
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH 30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A LARGE HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
75 MPH AND STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES OF EF2 STRENGTH OR GREATER
ALONG MUCH OF COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
Quoting Patrap:


Wow,,,you were in the Eye of the Black & Gold storm Eh..?

One for the Books..one Regime falls..another arises.

Finally..

Ive only been waiting for 43 years.


Is was awesome. Great tickets in the 300 level on the 40 yard line just below the ESPN guys and the replay booth. Didn't get much sleep but it was well worth it. First time seeing the Patriots live. It was nice to see every pass Brady threw nocked down. Saints have a great team and a great coach.
Patrap
zip 36582. Mobile radar. Temp up about 7 or 8 degrees in about 2 hours. Wind starting to blow some. Rain starting again. Could be interesting here for the next couple of hours.
Jesse
1159. Patrap
Quoting iluvjess:


Is was awesome. Great tickets in the 300 level on the 40 yard line just below the ESPN guys and the replay booth. Didn't get much sleep but it was well worth it. First time seeing the Patriots live. It was nice to see every pass Brady threw nocked down. Saints have a great team and a great coach.


Yup..we knew that for 3 years now,but hey,,the rest of the Planet saw it last night.

Instant Karma is a truism.
Getting a lot of rain, hopefully no flooding will happen, i'm more concerned on how loud this "pitbull" will bark when it treks across the N GOM.
1161. Patrap
Quoting TheoJesse:
Patrap
zip 36582. Mobile radar. Temp up about 7 or 8 degrees in about 2 hours. Wind starting to blow some. Rain starting again. Could be interesting here for the next couple of hours.
Jesse


U betcha jesse.

Up to 57F here

Ive got a cyclonic wind flow from the Neast down to the Southwest.

Falling Barometer as well.
Keep that NOAA radio close tonight friend.
1162. Patrap
One follower to come Jesse,then a Break ,but the winds will pick up Later as the Big Un come thru ..later in the am.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pres. Obama on in a minute for a major speech.


did i miss anything?
1164. Patrap
Quoting winter123:


did i miss anything?

Serious speech re Afghanistan, only a couple interruptions for clapping. Still think he rocked West Point--just a few minutes too long, JMO.
The low has passed buoy 42007, with the wind switching from SE to NNW in half an hour. The low appears to have passed just north of the buoy: Link

9:20 pm NNW ( 332 deg ) 29.9 kts
9:10 pm NW ( 320 deg ) 30.9 kts
9:00 pm SW ( 230 deg ) 24.7 kts
8:50 pm SE ( 137 deg ) 25.3 kts
8:40 pm ESE ( 119 deg ) 19.6 kts
8:30 pm ESE ( 103 deg ) 22.3 kts
1167. Patrap

Gale Warning

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
930 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES
MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ080-020930-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING THE FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
930 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

...GALE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 92W...

.TONIGHT...WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 27N AND ELSEWHERE E OF COLD
FRONT E TO SE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S WINDS E OF COLD
FRONT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. W OF COLD FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS.
.WED...W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SCATTERED
TSTMS ALONG FRONT.
.WED NIGHT...NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...W OF FRONT N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. E OF
FRONT SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 7 FT.
Patrap
Bad one in half hour or 45 minutes. If I didn't know better it looks like part of an eyewall. First one I've seem up close lately.
Jesse
Just as I expected... The computer models were too far north with the severe threat/low track, as is typical with El nino, all the severe weather and heavy rain tends to hug the gulf coast into Florida...


That being said, this low is tracking more ENE before it will finally head NE instead of the models showing the low headed to Mississipi valley, which is vary uncharacteristic for El Nino.

Just as I expected there shouldn't be any severe in the western zones, the main severe threat should be the panhandle, extreme southern georgia and Alabama, down into the cntral peninsula where I live, and up the coast of extreme south and eastern carolinas...


Overall, im forecasting a stronger severe threat in north and central Florida, as well as stronger threat along extreme southeast goergia and extreme eastern carolinas. But I believe the severe threat will be non-exsistent further inland, even though theses ares are in slight risk, it won't happen... Ive seen such forecasts fail often.

That being said, areas near the coast have the best severe weather threat east of pensacola... However, an isolated severe still can't be ruled out in LA, MS, and AL with upper system.

But if you live any further inland, even if you're in the severe risk, don't buy that forecast, you'll get lots of rain, and elevated thunder, but it will just be way too stable and cold for severe weather.

The forecasts are treating this situation that of a typical trough pattern, but with El Nino in place, the severe threat should be be further south and east, affecting mainly the coastal areas as well as most of north and central Florida
downtown Mobile at 9:50 p.m.

Austal USA, Mobile, Alabama (PWS)
Updated: 14 sec ago
58.2 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 13.0 mphfrom the SE

Wind Gust: 19.0 mph
Pressure: 29.55 in (Falling)

Jed did you read the Charleston wx discussion this evening? Check out 1156.
The low has just passed ptbm6 : Link
1173. Patrap
The Surface Low..the one to watch is on Track and Guidance a tad faster maybe than earlier Ene

1174. VTG
Gusts around 40mph in Pensacola right now, which is just a little less than what we saw with Ida.
1175. Patrap
earlier at 7:25 CDT

Quoting Patrap:


Wow,,,you were in the Eye of the Black & Gold storm Eh..?

One for the Books..one Regime falls..another arises.

Finally..

Ive only been waiting for 43 years.


Heh, I've always told folks I was abused as a child, growing up in Mississippi- I was raised a New Orleans Saints fan.

So what do I do? When I grow up I move to Tampa! I used to piss people off here in the Creamsicle days by saying the only reason I knew Tampa existed before I moved here was because the Bucs were the only team the Saints could beat! :D
1177. Patrap

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI


The Main System to come tonight is Lake Charles Bound ATM.

1178. Patrap
The ULL Driver is on the Move...

Big Sucka too.

GOES-12 WV Big Loop

Station PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL
Owned and maintained by NOAA's National Ocean Service
Water Level Observation Network
30.403 N 87.212 W (30°24'12" N 87°12'42" W)

1180. xcool



Our local met, ABC Ch.7, just mentioned the ring around the moon as a precursor to happenings in the Gulf.
1182. xcool
new update by 0zgfs
Offshore


bouy e end dauphin island DPIA1 67.5 F w 33k . thermo on back deck agrees. amazing how quickly it warmed up here. this is more intense on the island than ida. the 20 ft high drifts of sand removed from the roadway on the west end will be neatly redistributed by morning. wonder how deep the water is over the island now on that end. police went knocking and moving people out before dark.
1185. Patrap
Its gonna get worse by Dawn as the Gradient tightens over the area ..Be safe. Thanks for the info too
Quoting Jedkins01:
Just as I expected... The computer models were too far north with the severe threat/low track, as is typical with El nino, all the severe weather and heavy rain tends to hug the gulf coast into Florida...


That being said, this low is tracking more ENE before it will finally head NE instead of the models showing the low headed to Mississipi valley, which is vary uncharacteristic for El Nino.

Just as I expected there shouldn't be any severe in the western zones, the main severe threat should be the panhandle, extreme southern georgia and Alabama, down into the cntral peninsula where I live, and up the coast of extreme south and eastern carolinas...


Overall, im forecasting a stronger severe threat in north and central Florida, as well as stronger threat along extreme southeast goergia and extreme eastern carolinas. But I believe the severe threat will be non-exsistent further inland, even though theses ares are in slight risk, it won't happen... Ive seen such forecasts fail often.

That being said, areas near the coast have the best severe weather threat east of pensacola... However, an isolated severe still can't be ruled out in LA, MS, and AL with upper system.

But if you live any further inland, even if you're in the severe risk, don't buy that forecast, you'll get lots of rain, and elevated thunder, but it will just be way too stable and cold for severe weather.

The forecasts are treating this situation that of a typical trough pattern, but with El Nino in place, the severe threat should be be further south and east, affecting mainly the coastal areas as well as most of north and central Florida


I actually kinda agree with you. However, even though it has transitioned to a traditional El Nino(from an El Nino Modiki), it takes the atmosphere a bit longer to kick in. So that might be the reason for this batch.
The low center appears to be the kink in the red in this image:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Our local met, ABC Ch.7, just mentioned the ring around the moon as a precursor to happenings in the Gulf.
Funny thing I just walked outside and notice that too I even told my sister to come take a look. Our local met Dennis Philips said it's a halo.
1189. Patrap
I hate to point this out to ya SSIGG,but the Surface Low didnt move 300 Miles in 4.45 Hours..



1190. Patrap
Here she comes ..on the Move faster by the Hour now.




00Z or 7pm EDT Surface Look

I think he said a 23 degree circular halo
To Post 1180,

Is that an updated map of the snow potential? That means more of a chance of snow for Raleigh. Are other models joining that trend?
Actually PaTrap the pressures of the buoys and the wind shifts from Grand Isle to 42007 to PTBM6 support my track.
Evenin' Bloggers. working late tonight!
Looks like ECFL should be on the lookout after 8 p.m. Wednesday night.
Link
If Pensacola sees snow that'll make it four years in a row some part of Florida has seen the white stuff!
The low passed Grand Isle at around 6:30 CST with a pressure of 29.54" Link and 42007 around 9 p.m. with a pressure of 29.51" and a wind shift consistent with the low center tracking just north of the buoy

9:20 pm NNW ( 332 deg ) 29.9 kts
9:10 pm NW ( 320 deg ) 30.9 kts
9:00 pm SW ( 230 deg ) 24.7 kts
8:50 pm SE ( 137 deg ) 25.3 kts
8:40 pm ESE ( 119 deg ) 19.6 kts
8:30 pm ESE ( 103 deg ) 22.3 kts

Link

And then passing ptbm6 at 9:30 CST

Link

The low center matched with the notch in the squall line I have been tracking.
1197. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually PaTrap the pressures of the buoys and the wind shifts from Grand Isle to 42007 to PTBM6 support my track.


That was the leeside Meso-Low ..as the Surface Low is Lagging behind ,being Pumped by the ULL driver.

Just How I see it,and the NWS
Chicklit, I think you are right. The weather discussion this evening from Charleston was most disconcerting.
1199. Patrap
If a surface Low was Ne of Grand Isle,,which it isnt..the winds would be out the Sw,which they arent.

Note the Current there,

Current Conditions

NOS_NWLON Grand Isle, LA, Grand Isle, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 31 min 45 sec ago
Clear
57 °F
Clear
Wind: 13 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Pressure: 29.60 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Meso low or not, it does have the lowest pressures in the system. However, pressures are trending downward again off the TX coast, so a new dominant low may form. But at present the low I've been tracking has the lowest pressure.
1201. amd
i don't think the low that SSIGG is tracking will be the low for the system.

For instance, much of the winds in both Louisiana and the coastal Louisiana waters is out of the east. Also pressure is beginning to fall along the Louisiana coast once again:

Buoy along the Louisiana Coast

1202. Patrap
If a surface Low was Ne of Grand Isle,,which it isnt..the winds would be out the Sw,which they arent.

Note the Current there,

Current Conditions

NOS_NWLON Grand Isle, LA, Grand Isle, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 31 min 45 sec ago
Clear
57 °F
Clear
Wind: 13 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Pressure: 29.60 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
the wind would be out of the NW if the low passed to the NE, which they did shift to after the low I've been tracking passed. However, a new low may be taking shape off the Texas coast which becomes more dominant. The winds did shift to the NW after the low center passed Grand Isle at 6:30--and have shifted NE again.Link
1204. Patrap
Quoting amd:
i don't think the low that SSIGG is tracking will be the low for the system.

For instance, much of the winds in both Louisiana and the coastal Louisiana waters is out of the east. Also pressure is beginning to fall along the Louisiana coast once again:

Buoy along the Louisiana Coast



Yeppars..the meso Low was the Pup..now the Big Dog is a coming ,..Woof,Woof..
Ive seen this Dozens of times thru the years as its well..way early this one.
1205. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
the wind would be out of the NW if the low passed to the NE, which they did shift to after the low I've been tracking passed. However, a new low may be taking shape off the Texas coast which becomes more dominant. The winds did shift to the NW after the low center passed Grand Isle at 6:30--and have shifted NE again.Link


Well thats your Opine ..

But I'm going with the Obs and Radar to the West and the NWS,..LOL
It is possible, and quite likely, that a new low forming to the west of the old center will become dominant--but this evening, the low I tracked had the lowest pressure. It will be interesting to see if a new tight low pressure center forms and how deep it gets. A new western Gulf low will have the advantage of feeding on the water, which the first low, having moved inland, no longer has.
City Hall, Destin, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 4 min 27 sec ago
Rain
62.9 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 61 °F
Wind: 17.0 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 34.0 mph

Pressure: 29.65 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 700 ft
Overcast 1200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 22 ft
Quoting Patrap:


Yeppars..the meso Low was the Pup..now the Big Dog is a coming ,..Woof,Woof..
Ive seen this Dozens of times thru the years as its well..way early this one.

mesolow might not quite be the correct term, though I do agree with your generalization. The low was not and never has been perfectly symmetrical and the GFS has for quite sometime depicted a dual low with the western becoming dominant. The 18z ( yes I know it was 18z and is not very reliable but bear with me) showed this very well in a general sense. You can go back and run the loop of the model to see it clearly. So, I have to say you are both right =)
1209. Patrap
Note the Buoy,..actually its at the Gas Plant on the east Side of Grand Isle.

The Meso Low Passed as you tracked it perfectly..now the trend in Down again as the LOW Pressure comes in tonight.

Grand Isle

And One would need to Have a west component if the Low Had moved Ne..we dont.
The coast guard station at Mobile still has the lowest pressure I can find, lower than any off the Texas / Louisiana coast. Link
It will be interesting to see the western low's track and how deep it gets.
1212. Patrap
Quoting SouthALWX:

mesolow might not quite be the correct term, though I do agree with your generalization. The low was not and never has been perfectly symmetrical and the GFS has for quite sometime depicted a dual low with the western becoming dominant. The 18z ( yes I know it was 18z and is not very reliable but bear with me) showed this very well in a general sense. You can go back and run the loop of the model to see it clearly. So, I have to say you are both right =)


My AMS vocab is lacking I admit..Im just going by the Obs,..sorry if I got that wrong.
Plus I a tad tired as well.

The Low is asymetrical..from the 00Z Surface/radar
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The coast guard station at Mobile still has the lowest pressure I can find, lower than any off the Texas / Louisiana coast. Link

using the mesolow reference this is stil almost irrelevant. A tornado would have lower pressure than the disturbance causing it but is still not the main feature. The issue here is size. The broader, larger low further west is influencing the meso and even that is being influenced by the ULL.
Quoting Patrap:


My AMS vocab is lacking I admit..Im just going by the Obs,..sorry if I got that wrong.
Plus I a tad tired as well.

you might be quite right, I just cant say for sure yet. It could be an embedded mesofeature or could just be a fractured portion of the main feature. regardless, the outcome is essentially the same, the only difference being the steering .. if its fractured the meso segment would tend northward as steered by the ULL if it is embedded it will rotate within the larger surface low
Quoting Patrap:


My AMS vocab is lacking I admit..Im just going by the Obs,..sorry if I got that wrong.
Plus I a tad tired as well.

The Low is asymetrical..from the 00Z Surface/radar

agreed. thats what i believe is causing the disagreement. We are too used to having a focal point TS to sometimes notice these ET features can be quite complex especially at the meso level
In Patraps favor, the pressure at this rig about 180 miles south of Lake Charles has fallen back to match the lowest reading there earlier today. Link

However, even with the day off tomorrow, I am tired, and hitting the sack as well.

Sharp wind shift and pressure rise as low passes NW of Mobile Coast Guard station: Link
1217. Patrap
Quoting SouthALWX:

agreed. thats what i believe is causing the disagreement. We are too used to having a focal point TS to sometimes notice these ET features can be quite complex especially at the meso level


Yessir,.that a good view.

SSIGG and I should team up next cane season as one Comes In.
Having a team keeps the Ball Mark High.



1218. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
In Patraps favor, the pressure at this rig about 180 miles south of Lake Charles has fallen back to match the lowest reading there earlier today. Link

However, even with the day off tomorrow, I am tired, and hitting the sack as well.

Sharp wind shift and pressure rise as low passes NW of Mobile Coast Guard station: Link


Yeah,Im bout outta here to SSIGG,I wanna watch my Gurl Chelsea Lately on E.

If you look at the surface analysis in post 1148 (which is still the latest one on the NWS site), there are in fact two low pressure centers, one 1001 mb just SE of Grand Isle, LA, the second 998 mb just offshore from Mississippi.

I know that the ULL creates upper divergence to support a surface low. Why right now do we have a 2-headed monster (are there two upper divergence maximums?)
1220. Patrap
I have a Lil Flash feeling that down the Line in the next few weeks..one of these Whoppa's gonna Meet a real Artic Plunge Like Dec 23rd-25 here in 89.

We had a Low of 12F the 23rd and were under the freeze mark for 44 Hours.

Thats 20 years ago and In my Life thats a BAD Omen.

Betsy,65,,in Eyewall here.

85 Elena,in Eyewall in Long Beach, Miss.

In 2005 well..In Katrina Eyewall for 8-9 Hours.

I may Move..LOL
The wind here has shifted to the east, and after being around 60 all day, we have jumped up to 66, our high for the day at midnight. The warm front is a bit early, was expected near dawn.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
If you look at the surface analysis in post 1148 (which is still the latest one on the NWS site), there are in fact two low pressure centers, one 1001 mb just SE of Grand Isle, LA, the second 998 mb just offshore from Mississippi.

I know that the ULL creates upper divergence to support a surface low. Why right now do we have a 2-headed monster (are there two upper divergence maximums?)


Actually over Texas is the 1002mb third head. Right now we have a very broad triple point low. Once it comes together it will have a chance to deepen faster. Most models agree on this happening over Louisiana which I believe is to far west.
1223. Patrap
Really a Dynamic setup ..interesting too..I learned a lot today and tonight. Thanx for all the input everyone.

Im a Gonna head for the ol wunderland upstairs.

Everyone stay say and stay warm.
1224. Patrap
Wait one..heres the latest just issued..





Seems the last Half hour of Post were pretty darn good as ,well check out the Map's..



Quoting HurricaneKing:


Actually over Texas is the 1002mb third head. Right now we have a very broad triple point low. Once it comes together it will have a chance to deepen faster. Most models agree on this happening over Louisiana which I believe is to far west.


Yeah, I didn't see the third head till you pointed it out. Is this just a massively broad low with an imperfect surface analysis, or is there a reason that there are three points of lowest pressure?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I didn't see the third head till you pointed it out. Is this just a massively broad low with an imperfect surface analysis, or is there a reason that there are three points of lowest pressure?


It's called a triple point low. It tends to stay slightly weaker and more spread out than lows that have 1 area of lowest pressure since each area is competing against each other. Once one area wins out it can deepen quickly.
1227. Patrap
Quoting HurricaneKing:


It's called a triple point low. It tends to stay slightly weaker and more spread out than lows that have 1 area of lowest pressure since each area is competing against each other. Once one area wins out they can deepen quickly.


I believe thats the best take on it for sure,Thanks
Quoting HurricaneKing:


It's called a triple point low. It tends to stay slightly weaker and more spread out than lows that have 1 area of lowest pressure since each area is competing against each other. Once one area wins out they can deepen quickly.


What exactly are these three lows competing for (like how nearby tropical cyclones compete for heat & moisture, what do these extratropical lows compete for)? What happened in the atmosphere to generate a triple system with competition?
wow, I am learning a lot tonight, definitely enjoying the input tonight
Man, that 3rd low is sitting directly over my head, give or take 10 miles or so!
uh oh, there a three of us college kids on here now :P

but yeah, I see the three point low, but which one will win out? which has the better environment?
1233. beell
It's called a surface wave or an elongated area of low pressure. Possibly not a good closed suface low yet.

You have a double point. A quasi-warm front intersecting a cold front.

A triple point on this scale would be the intersection of cold front/dryline/warm front-from west to east.

There ain't no dryline out there tonight.

That'd be my opinion to go along with my two elbows.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What exactly are these three lows competing for (like how nearby tropical cyclones compete for heat & moisture, what do these extratropical lows compete for)? What happened in the atmosphere to generate a triple system with competition?


They fight each other for energy ie from the ull and from the environment.

Why do the form.... I have no idea. I think it's because each begins to form in a favorable environment plus local environmental factors.

I know the mountains of NC can cause a double or even triple point low to form because of the way the air has to flow around them thats why I mention environmental.
so do you think the second low, the one in the GOM south of Louisiana, has the best chance of becoming the dominant low?
Quoting beell:
It's called a surface wave or an elongated area of low pressure. Possibly not a good closed suface low yet.

You have a double point. A quasi-warm front intersecting a cold front.

A triple point on this scale would be cold front/dryline/warm front-from west to east.

That'd be my opinion to go along with my two elbows.


The only reason I'm calling this a triple point is one of the nws discussions I read earlier (I forgot which one) said the nam was showing a triple point low while the gfs was keeping it single/ double barreled.

I just remembered something. (From a tiny paragraph in one of my met books) Most of the time one low is near the ull while another is along the cold front and the last attached to the warm front. Thus a triple point. Usually when you see them the one near the ull is attached to the cold front one by a surface trough.
Quoting tornadodude:
uh oh, there a three of us college kids on here now :P

but yeah, I see the three point low, but which one will win out? which has the better environment?
three point first then secondary and prime then just prime
One warning for everyone I'm sorry for any typos tonight. It's 12:23am and I can't sleep.
Quoting tornadodude:
so do you think the second low, the one in the GOM south of Louisiana, has the best chance of becoming the dominant low?
naw that would be one over texas tracks up against the spine
Quoting tornadodude:
uh oh, there a three of us college kids on here now :P

but yeah, I see the three point low, but which one will win out? which has the better environment?


you include me?
Warm Front has pushed thru here. 48 degrees at 8Pm 68 now.
I learned from some meteorology classes that upper-level flow accelerates on the east side of an upper trough axis/upper low (ULL). That acceleration leads to a surface low (the extratropical low). I made a blog post a couple of days ago (extratropical to tropical transition), where I explain how an extratropical low can form.

My theory (I could be wrong, just a thought) is that in this case, not only is the upper flow accelerating on the east side of the ULL, but the flow is also branching apart on the east side of the ULL. The branching region is probably very huge, creating a massive surface low pressuer field, and the surface analysis can be pretty erratic with a broad low.
Quoting ElConando:


you include me?


didnt realize you were still on, at least 4 of us now :P

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
naw that would be one over texas tracks up against the spine


makes sense


hold on things gonna get a bit bumpy
If you are in Fla, Ga, Ala, NC turn on WX radios!!!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1110 PM CST TUE DEC 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020510Z - 020715Z

WHILE A WW IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM ...TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT IS LARGELY CONTINGENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...AS WIND PROFILES ARE
ALREADY STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY APPEAR MAXIMIZED WEST OF THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BENEATH A
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CORE.
THIS FEATURE IS MIGRATING
INLAND AHEAD OF A WEAK INITIAL SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE APPARENTLY JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL AREAS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR A TORNADO MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN NOW AND THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME
...PARTICULARLY NEAR/WEST OF
APALACHICOLA. THEREAFTER ...AS THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS TOWARD THE
UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/ SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...THE SEVERE THREAT
MAY WANE AGAIN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT THE APPROACH
OF STRONGER FORCING NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME ...WHEN BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO COMMENCE. JUXTAPOSED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR DAYBREAK.


rapidly expanding and organizing feature and its all movin ene
1250. Patrap
Round 2 inbound..

1251. beell
It may look something like this.



or this-a surface wave along the front.
00Z GFS valid 06Z 12/02
Photobucket
Quoting HurricaneKing:


The only reason I'm calling this a triple point is one of the nws discussions I read earlier (I forgot which one) said the nam was showing a triple point low while the gfs was keeping it single/ double barreled.

I just remembered something. (From a tiny paragraph in one of my met books) Most of the time one low is near the ull while another is along the cold front and the last attached to the warm front. Thus a triple point. Usually when you see them the one near the ull is attached to the cold front one by a surface trough.


Are you talking about something like a deeply-occluded low (like in Figure 4, deep-occlusion phase in my latest blog post)? In a mature extratropical cyclone, there is a decaying surface low beneath the ULL, and then a second one sometimes could form at the triple intersection of warm,cold, and occluded fronts. At the triple intersection is upper air accleration on the east side of the ULL, which can allow a brand new surface low at the triple intersection.

In this particular storm, I think we are still at the "frontal wave" phase of Figure 4, deeply-occluded phase occurs much later.
Lord I need to get back to work to close up before that hits pat!
1254. Patrap
This one a coming has MUCH mo Flavor with it..

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Using my one semester of college education, I believe that that the frontmost low of the three is going to become the dominant low based upon this analysis:


1) It already has the lowest pressure of the three which makes it the dominant low at the time.


2) The low is located in the area with the strongest Warm Air Advection, which should continue to aid it's development and allow it to deepen faster than the other lows.


3) The front low seems to be in an area of optimum upper level divergence. The second low is also in favorable divergence, although not to to the same extent, while the third low is almost below the trough axis, which should prevent it from deepening.
very good info tonite. gonna take the op while there is a break in the action to rest before th next round. FYI..the data bouy here on dauphin island is partially blocked from good s wind data by fort gaines directly due south of it. sse may be suspect as well, however watching a private station here id MNP201 on w u. putting out some really good uncluttered data. later...
nice zoom in fer ya showing up nicly gonna be a little bumpy

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Are you talking about something like a deeply-occluded low (like in Figure 4, deep-occlusion phase in my latest blog post)? In a mature extratropical cyclone, there is a decaying surface low beneath the ULL, and then a second one sometimes could form at the triple intersection of warm,cold, and occluded fronts. At the triple intersection is upper air accleration on the east side of the ULL, which can allow a brand new surface low at the triple intersection.

In this particular storm, I think we are still at the "frontal wave" phase of Figure 4, deeply-occluded phase occurs much later.


But triple points don't have to always occur that mature. They can also occur in the beginning when it's poorly organized and fighting for a main center. Normally like I believe keeper said it drops to 2 then 1.
1259. Patrap
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Lord I need to get back to work to close up before that hits pat!


Def a prudent and wise decision JF..itsa really on da move.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Using my one semester of college education, I believe that that the frontmost low of the three is going to become the dominant low based upon this analysis:


1) It already has the lowest pressure of the three which makes it the dominant low at the time.


2) The low is located in the area with the strongest Warm Air Advection, which should continue to aid it's development and allow it to deepen faster than the other lows.


3) The front low seems to be in an area of optimum upper level divergence. The second low is also in favorable divergence, although not to to the same extent, while the third low is almost below the trough axis, which should prevent it from deepening.


I agree though most models tend to show it the other way around.
1261. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

To 1900 Hurricane (Post 1255),

I agree, I understood everything you said except for the warm air advection. Why in addition to upper air divergence would warm air advection intensify the surface low?
this is goin to suck tomorrow when i have to do errands in this weather.. not looking forward to it.. got home a lil bit ago and the wind was definately gusting up too or near 30mph(but this reading was near 8pm with a temp near 50degrees).. but has slow down a bit and has gotten warmer near 69 degrees as the warm front lifts to the north.. some gust and expecting the winds to pick back up in a hour or so with some heavy rain or severe storms.. some spots in Destin, there was already minor flooding and its just a start of it.. so not looking good for the gulf coast and to the ene near southern GA,north FL, and central FL.. well im goin to hit the sack.. everyone be safe and might b on tomorrow.. god bless
Quoting Wetagain:
very good info tonite. gonna take the op while there is a break in the action to rest before th next round. FYI..the data bouy here on dauphin island is partially blocked from good s wind data by fort gaines directly due south of it. sse may be suspect as well, however watching a private station here id MNP201 on w u. putting out some really good uncluttered data. later...

uhhh, forgot to mention nws bouy no is DPIA1 that has suspect wind data.
1265. Patrap
4 Hour 40 Frame Composite Loop,NOLA

Evening/Morning everyone..
I'm very curious to see what the new outlook at 1 a.m. will show. Moderate Risk?? We'll see, it's still very cloudy here, which will make it hard for conditions to be ripe, but still favorable for severe weather.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
To 1900 Hurricane (Post 1255),

I agree, I understood everything you said except for the warm air advection. Why in addition to upper air divergence would warm air advection intensify the surface low?


Warm air advection on the east side and cold air advection on the west side helps to get them spinning and self sufficient. (Not the word text books use but means the same thing)
Quoting reedzone:
Evening/Morning everyone..
I'm very curious to see what the new outlook at 1 a.m. will show. Moderate Risk?? We'll see, it's still very cloudy here, which will make it hard for conditions to be ripe, but still favorable for severe weather.


I'm honestly expecting a mod risk for south Georgia and north Florida with a mention about a possible upgrade for east NC and ne SC but they will want to see how the warm front goes. If it moves as far inland as I expect there may be an eventual upgrade for the coastal Carolinas as well.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Warm air advection on the east side and cold air advection on the west side helps to get them spinning and self sufficient. (Not the word text books use but means the same thing)


Gotcha. I see that in the temp advection map in post 1255, which would fit a vicious cycle intesnfication. Cold air advection to the west and warm air advection to the east would continue to amplify the supporting ULL. An amplified ULL (with strengthening upper air divergence) strengthens the surface low. The strengthening surface low increases advection further, and the cycle goes on and on...
I'm still not sold on the lead low becoming dominant. I feel it will move out ahead of the best upperlevel conditions and the western center will move into it ...Just my opinion. I don't necessarily agree with the WAA theory supporting either as dominant, being that the degree of WAA will, imo, occur ahead of the main low not atop or directly adjacent it. If, however, a strong CAA begins to occur, I could very well be wrong. I don't see that either, however as winds are generally south over most of the area.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
To 1900 Hurricane (Post 1255),

I agree, I understood everything you said except for the warm air advection. Why in addition to upper air divergence would warm air advection intensify the surface low?

I may be incorrect (I am currently finishing only my first semester in college), but I believe that it has to do with the air densities. Warm air is less dense and needs less encouragement to rise, hence forming low pressure at the surface.
well all, its time for bed, so have a goodnight, and be safe, definitely keep the weather radios on! see y'all in the morning
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Gotcha. I see that in the temp advection map in post 1255, which would fit a vicious cycle intesnfication. Cold air advection to the west and warm air advection to the east would continue to amplify the supporting ULL. An amplified ULL (with strengthening upper air divergence) strengthens the surface low. The strengthening surface low increases advection further, and the cycle goes on and on...


Correct I think. (It's getting late and my brain is shuting down) I also agree with South there is slim to none CAA though I disagree about the amount of WAA.
Well the GOM has 2 surface L centers/features.

I believe the Easternmost surface L will cause alot of havoc overnight, as the Meso Discussion indicates. Watch out S LA, MS, AL into the FL panhandle. Appears the main threat is torrential downpours and strong, straight line winds (up to 60MPH), isolated EF-0 to EF-1 tornadoes are possible, (if the squall line gets together, there might be what the N Central TX weathermen call a "quick spin-up tornadoes)". The Low Level Jet(LLJ) was 70KT earlier today, and you have the ULL spinning out into C TX later tonight. . Some of that wind might get translated down to the surface in heavier T-storms.

The ULL is wrapping up over W Central & SW TX. Radar indicates precip between Abeline and Lubbock, TX is changing over to snow. That is enhansing a second blow up of convection, off of the SE TX coast, that will move NE ward and create problems later on Wednesday.

I have the mozzerela sticks, the pizza rolls, tomato sauce for dipping, plus my soda, I'm ready!!
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I may be incorrect (I am currently finishing only my first semester in college), but I believe that it has to do with the air densities. Warm air is less dense and needs less encouragement to rise, hence forming low pressure at the surface.

yes, but what causes the WAA? I think the answer to that is more telling.
Quoting SouthALWX:
I'm still not sold on the lead low becoming dominant. I feel it will move out ahead of the best upperlevel conditions and the western center will move into it ...Just my opinion. I don't necessarily agree with the WAA theory supporting either as dominant, being that the degree of WAA will, imo, occur ahead of the main low not atop or directly adjacent it. If, however, a strong CAA begins to occur, I could very well be wrong. I don't see that either, however as winds are generally south over most of the area.

Valid point. We'll just have to see how it all pans out.
The 500 mb map in post 1255 is pretty helpful in seeing what's going on. The 1002 mb low in east Texas seems to be supported by upper air divergence on the NE side of the upper low (notice the flow diverges, one stream path turning northwestward with the cyclonic ULL, the stream path further east blowing straigh north, with divergence between the two streams). For the other two pairs of surface lows at the Gulf coast, the flow similarly diverges over a large area to the southeast of the ULL.
MD clip from SPC:
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT THE APPROACH
OF STRONGER FORCING NOW PIVOTING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME ...WHEN BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO COMMENCE. JUXTAPOSED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS NEAR DAYBREAK.

Quoting Patrap:
This one a coming has MUCH mo Flavor with it..

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI


Ground control, tighten your "safety harness", get ready. You've got Low Level WInd Shear, a huge piece of energy has kicked off of the ULL, injecting that into a nice juicy atmosphere!!

As Emeril, from "Emeril Live", the famous cook says, "BAMM"!!
Quoting SouthALWX:

yes, but what causes the WAA? I think the answer to that is more telling.


The image below I think may answer your question (I have a detailed discussion on my blog about this). The surface cyclonic flow pulls warm air northward to the east (warm air advection), and cold air southward to the west (cold air advection).

No moderate risk on the new update, yet it shows a 10% chance of tornadoes for the Panhandle and eastern South to North Carolina.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The image below I think may answer your question (I have a detailed discussion on my blog about this). The surface cyclonic flow pulls warm air northward to the east (warm air advection), and cold air southward to the west (cold air advection).



Is that Hurricane Karen in 2003? Looks interesting, love looking at Subtropical systems, they look very cool.
Quoting reedzone:
No moderate risk on the new update, yet it shows a 10% chance of tornadoes for the Panhandle and eastern Georgia to North Carolina.

I've been in the DFW, TX for 29 yrs. Almost ALL of our WORST severe weather outbreaks occurred while we were under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather!

You have an early spring-like set-up with the 2 surface Low's and the HUGE ULL. Someone in the LA, MS, AL, TX Panhandle is gonna get it "bad"!!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The image below I think may answer your question (I have a detailed discussion on my blog about this). The surface cyclonic flow pulls warm air northward to the east (warm air advection), and cold air southward to the west (cold air advection).


I knew the answer and that's my point. The low is in between the CAA and WAA not under it, generally. the mesolow was/is benefiting from the area of increased WAA but I don't think it's indicative of where the main feature is. You could be right, but it's hard to tell without substantial CAA to tip us off. btw .. SkewT out of mobile with a format most can understand, nice Java app. http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/plot_soundings.cgi?data_source=Op40;latest=latest;n_hrs=8;airport=30.57 5819,-88.000488;plot=Java-based%20plots&start=latest
Quoting reedzone:


Is that Hurricane Karen in 2003? Looks interesting, love looking at Subtropical systems, they look very cool.


That's Huricane Michael in 2000. I also show a southern hemisphere example in my blog post. I don't know if anyone remembers Hurricane Catarina (not Katrina) which occured in the south Atlantic Ocean in March 2004 and hit Brazil (extremely rare).
Quoting Bordonaro:

I've been in the DFW, TX for 29 yrs. Almost ALL of our WORST severe weather outbreaks occurred while we were under a "Slight Risk" of severe weather!

You have an early spring-like set-up with the 2 surface Low's and the HUGE ULL. Someone in the LA, MS, AL, TX Panhandle is gonna get it "bad"!!


Yep, the 2007 Florida Tornado Outbreak occurred in a slight risk area overnight. Everybody just needs to be prepared, I am. I am on the Northeast coast of Florida, this is big to us because normally, squall lines die out before they get here, this one most likely will stay in tact and maybe even get a bit stronger. Squall lines like the 1993 Superstorm Derecho, 2001 March squall line, and the Christmas Day Outbreak in 2007.. This one could top them.
Quoting SouthALWX:

I knew the answer and that's my point. The low is in between the CAA and WAA not under it, generally. the mesolow was/is benefiting from the area of increased WAA but I don't think it's indicative of where the main feature is. You could be right, but it's hard to tell without substantial CAA to tip us off. btw .. SkewT out of mobile with a format most can understand, nice Java app. http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/plot_soundings.cgi?data_source=Op40;latest=latest;n_hrs=8;airport=30.57 5819,-88.000488;plot=Java-based%20plots&start=latest


I think you don't have to have both WAA and CAA to intensify the ULL & thus intensify the surface cyclone (as long as you have at least one). That because WAA to the east of the ULL will cause atmospheric thiceking (upper air pressure increases east of the ULL), and thus the ULL will have a relatively low pressure at the upper-levels than the thickening atmosphere to the east, and thus it is stronger.
This was earlier but this storm could have a history.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM DESTIN FL TO DOG ISLAND OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
INCLUDING EMPIRE MICA WRECK...C TOWER AND S TOWER...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CST

* AT 1044 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT AND STRONG WINDS OVER 34
KNOTS 10 NM SOUTHWEST OF EMPIRE MICA WRECK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 KNOTS. SEVERAL OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
WARNED AREA ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. THESE
STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I think you don't have to have both WAA and CAA to intensify the ULL & thus intensify the surface cyclone (as long as you have at least one). That because WAA to the east of the ULL will cause atmospheric thiceking (upper air pressure increases east of the ULL), and thus the ULL will have a relatively low pressure at the upper-levels than the thickening atmosphere to the east, and thus it is stronger.

ULL? I thought we were discussing the surface low competition 0.o
Quoting reedzone:


Yep, the 2007 Florida Tornado Outbreak occurred in a slight risk area overnight. Everybody just needs to be prepared, I am. I am on the Northeast coast of Florida, this is big to us because normally, squall lines die out before they get here, this one most likely will stay in tact and maybe even get a bit stronger. Squall lines like the 1993 Superstorm Derecho, 2001 March squall line, and the Christmas Day Outbreak in 2007.. This one could top them.


I have 41 yrs weather watching experience. I believe that biggest threat will be between 3-5AM CST and on through mid-afternoon Wednesday for Severe Weather along the Gulf Coast region. I personally do not believe that this set-up will be worse that the 1993 Storm of the Century.

All I have to say is thank God that the ULL is going to move over N TX and into LA, AR, TN. IF the ULL moved over the surface Low, there would be a serious problem. Pieces of energy are getting "shot" into the SE TX region. That will move across LA, MS, AL into the FL Panhandle region later this morning, into mid afternoon. The secondary squall line looks nastier than the 1st line that rolling into the FL Panhandle at this time.
Quoting SouthALWX:

ULL? I thought we were discussing the surface low competition 0.o


What I meant is that WAA is occuring just east of the surface low that will dominate. What happens is that because WAA is occuring east of the surface low, this will strengthen the ULL. The stronger ULL will intensify the dominating surface low because the stronger ULL in turn increases upper air divergence over the surface low.

The reason the surface low over Texas won't dominate is because its soon going to be under the ULL, and can't find upper air divergence. All the upper air divergence is on the east side of the ULL, and as the ULL strengthens, the surface low at the Gulf coast will strengthen. The strengthening Gulf coast low will increase WAA, which strengthesn the ULL. The strengthening ULL strengthens the Gulf coast low some more, and the cycle goes on...


EMPIRE MICA Panama City

The British standard type Ocean tanker Empire Mica was built in 1941 for the Ministry of War Transport at Haverton Hill, Teeside, by Furness S.B. Co. of Haverton Hill on Tees. She was 479 feet long, had a 61 foot beam, displaced 8,032 gross tons and was powered by 674 nhp triple expansion engines. She was managed by Anglo-American Oil Co. Ltd. of London.

On June 29, 1942
, while en route from Houston and New Orleans to the United Kingdom with a cargo of 12,000 tons of clean oil, she was torpedoed by the German submarine U-67 and sunk off the west coast of Florida. The next day one lifeboat with 14 men aboard were rescued by the vessel Sea Dream. A total of 33 crewmen were lost.

Today the remains of the Empire Mica lie 64 miles from Panama City and 20 miles south of Cape San Blas in 115 feet of water.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What I meant is that WAA is occuring just east of the surface low that will dominate. What happens is that because WAA is occuring east of the surface low, this will strengthen the ULL. The stronger ULL will intensify the dominating surface low because the stronger ULL in turn increases upper air divergence over the surface low.

The reason the surface low over Texas won't dominate is because its soon going to be under the ULL, and can't find upper air divergence. All the upper air divergence is on the east side of the ULL, and as the ULL strengthens, the surface low at the Gulf coast will strengthen. The strengthening Gulf coast low will increase WAA, which strengthesn the ULL. The strengthening ULL strengthens the Gulf coast low some more, and the cycle goes on...

I agree. the low over texas doesnt have much hope. I was talking about the one over the gomex as opposed to the inland one.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What I meant is that WAA is occuring just east of the surface low that will dominate. What happens is that because WAA is occuring east of the surface low, this will strengthen the ULL. The stronger ULL will intensify the dominating surface low because the stronger ULL in turn increases upper air divergence over the surface low.

The reason the surface low over Texas won't dominate is because its soon going to be under the ULL, and can't find upper air divergence. All the upper air divergence is on the east side of the ULL, and as the ULL strengthens, the surface low at the Gulf coast will strengthen. The strengthening Gulf coast low will increase WAA, which strengthesn the ULL. The strengthening ULL strengthens the Gulf coast low some more, and the cycle goes on...

Excellent explanation of what's cooking for dinner in the GOM!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Excellent explanation of what's cooking for dinner in the GOM!!

I'm glad you understood that 0.o. Didn't make alot of sense to me. though it is going on 1 am LOL
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1214 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WATERS FROM DESTIN FL TO DOG ISLAND FL OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
INCLUDING EMPIRE MICA WRECK...C TOWER...O TOWER...S TOWER...K
TOWER AND V TOWER...

* UNTIL 145 AM CST

* AT 1206 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS 12
NM SOUTHWEST OF C TOWER AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD BACK TO AN
AREA 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WITHIN THIS WARNED AREA ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 KNOTS.
WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

* THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 60
NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SAINT JOSEPH
PENINSULA AND SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT MARINE LANDMARKS
EFFECTED ARE...C TOWER...O TOWER AND K TOWER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...AND HEAVY RAINS.
BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM
PASSES.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR WATERSPOUTS. YOUR BEST COURSE OF EVASIVE
ACTION IF THREATENED BY A WATERSPOUT IS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
WATERSPOUT AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS APPARENT MOVEMENT.

I guess to be a little clearer, here's step by step of what's happening:

(1) Upper air divergence is essential to a low pressure at the surface. That is because as air parcels above spread apart, there is less and less air above you, and thus the pressure at the surface drops.
(2) Because of the balance of atmospheric forces, air decelerates on the west side of an upper trough/ULL, and air accelerates on the east side of the upper trogh/ULL. Upper air accelration = upper air divergence (because air parcels move away from each other as they accelerate).
(3) An ULL forms because "cold air is thin," my latest blog post discusses why ULL is associated with cold air. So, if there is warm air advection (WAA) to the east of the ULL, air pressure ALOFT is increasing east of the ULL. That means in the upper-levels, there is a tighter UPPER-LEVEL pressure gradient on the east side of the ULL, which increases the upper air accleration on the east side of the ULL some more.
(4) As the surface low at the Gulf coast tonight is underneath the east side of the ULL, its feeding off of the strengthening upper air acceleration. Because the surface low strengthens, its surface spin pulls more warm air northward on its east side, incresing the WAA. Increasing WAA strengthens the east side of the ULL, increasing the upper air accleration, and the cycle goes on...
Quoting SouthALWX:

I'm glad you understood that 0.o. Didn't make alot of sense to me. though it is going on 1 am LOL


The surface L furthest to the East is pulling loads of warm, juicy, rich GOM moisture Northward. The warm air is lighter and in more prone to rise. The ULL is a cold pocket of air at between 18-30,000 FT. Pieces of energy from the ULL are moving towards the surface Low. That warm air is forced up and over the warm air, creating a ton of lift.

How, you may ask?? The wind directions are changing with height (SHEAR), from the SE at the surface to the SW or W, creating a chimney effect, causing the air ahead of it to rise, and turn with height. This enhances the T-storms development, and IF the shear is strong enough, this may lead to super-cell tornadic storms.
Quoting Bordonaro:


The surface L furthest to the East is pulling loads of warm, juicy, rich GOM moisture Northward. The warm air is lighter and in more prone to rise. The ULL is a cold pocket of air at between 18-30,000 FT. Pieces of energy from the ULL are moving towards the surface Low. That warm air is forced up and over the warm air, creating a ton of lift.

How, you may ask?? The wind directions are changing with height (SHEAR), from the SE at the surface to the SW or W, creating a chimney effect, causing the air ahead of it to rise, and turn with height. This enhances the T-storms development, and IF the shear is strong enough, this may lead to super-cell tornadic storms.

I understand all of that, I'm still trying to wrap my head around how any of this effects which low pressure center becomes dominant.
Quoting SouthALWX:

I understand all of that, I'm still trying to wrap my head around how any of this effects which low pressure center becomes dominant.


I think post 1298, step 2 can help your answer. The Texas surface low is about to be under the ULL. Upper air divergence is zero beneath an ULL. Meanwhile, upper air divergence is + on th east side of the ULL (is negative on the west side of the ULL). The surface low is underneath the east side of the ULL and feeds off of strengthening upper air divergence on the east side of the ULL. Upper air divergence = a strengthening surface low.
If its still not making sense, check out this link on why there is upper air acceleration on the east side of an upper trough/low. There is also a sketch of how upper air accleration leads to a surface low.

http://mapmaker.meteor.wisc.edu/~jbrunner/ackerman/upperair/upperairbkgrnd.html
wow... this is a crazy storm.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I think post 1298, step 2 can help your answer. The Texas surface low is about to be under the ULL. Upper air divergence is zero beneath an ULL. Meanwhile, upper air divergence is + on th east side of the ULL (is negative on the west side of the ULL). The surface low is underneath the east side of the ULL and feeds off of strengthening upper air divergence on the east side of the ULL. Upper air divergence = a strengthening surface low.


I agreed with that ten times lol. My disagreement started .. hours ago now? when a mesolow came ashore over SW alabama. I argued that it wasn't the main low that the main surface low was still offshore at that time. I never contended that the lower over tx had a chance. it didnt and doesnt. I don't think anyone still online completely understands what I meant. If you look back to my conversation with Patrap and SSIG you will see =)
Quoting SouthALWX:


I agreed with that ten times lol. My disagreement started .. hours ago now? when a mesolow came ashore over SW alabama. I argued that it wasn't the main low that the main surface low was still offshore at that time. I never contended that the lower over tx had a chance. it didnt and doesnt. I don't think anyone still online completely understands what I meant. If you look back to my conversation with Patrap and SSIG you will see =)


LOL :), okay, I see what you were talking about. I may not recall correctly, but I think you said something about the mesolow moving into Alabama being right at the WAA (which I see how that it wouldn't beocme the dominate because the dominate one needs to be just west of the WAA).
Brownsville, TX
48 °F
Partly Cloudy
Good night, Will wake up tomorrow to a long, wet day along with many...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL :), okay, I see what you were talking about. I may not recall correctly, but I think you said something about the mesolow moving into Alabama being right at the WAA (which I see how that it wouldn't beocme the dominate because the dominate one needs to be just west of the WAA).

OH thank GOD... *whispers to himself " I'm not crazy, I'm not crazy, I'm not crazy " exactly 100% what I was saying.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 310 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE
ALABAMA TO 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
RAMP-UP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE EWD TODAY AS IMPACTS OF
APPROACHING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INCREASES TSTMS ACROSS WW.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS WW THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE.
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...WITH SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT
INCREASING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/HEATING OCCURS THIS MORNING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

1312. P451
27 degrees and everything iced over this AM here in NJ. A good 10 degrees colder than forecasted. They just can't get a handle of the temps.
1313. P451
I wouldn't be surprised to see Tornado watches go up all the way to eastern NC...or at least Severe TStorm watches.

This storm is cranking.
1314. RTLSNK
1315. RTLSNK
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR SOUTHEAST US HEAVY RAIN EVENT
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
400 AM EST WED DEC 02 2009

...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...



FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 AM EST...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 997 MB WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
HAD ALREADY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER TEXAS WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH A COMMA-SHAPED BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN LOUISIANA WHILE LIGHT RAIN WAS
OCCURRING IN OKLAHOMA...AND LIGHT SNOW WAS OBSERVED IN
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST TUE DEC
01 THROUGH 300 AM EST TUE DEC 02...

...ALABAMA...
MOBILE/BATES FIELD 1.44
MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT 1.36
DOTHAN MUNI ARPT 1.07
CAIRNS AAF/OZARK 1.03

...FLORIDA...
TYNDALL AFB/PANAMA CITY 1.97
PANAMA CITY/BAY CO. ARPT 1.85
MARIANNA MUNI ARPT 1.53
APALACHICOLA MUNI ARPT 1.33
DESTIN AIRPORT 1.21
VALPARAISO/EGLIN AFB 1.16

...LOUISIANA...
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 2.42
BOOTHVILLE 2.01
SLIDELL 1.85
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 1.45
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 1.22
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 1.01

...MISSISSIPPI...
PASCAGOULA 1.95
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 1.60
HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT 1.39
GULFPORT-BILOXI 1.27

...TEXAS...
HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY 2.71
CORPUS CHRISTI NAS 1.74
BROWNSVILLE INTL ARPT 1.70
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT 1.39
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 1.38
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 1.29
CORPUS CHRISTI INTL ARPT 1.21
COLLEGE STATION/EASTERWOOD FLD 1.18
CONROE-MONTGOMERY CO. ARPT 1.17
AUSTIN CITY 1.05


THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS
IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WINDS COULD GUST
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

KONG
Thunder ansd lightening woke me up.


Whst a system!
1319. IKE
Line now beginning to move into Okaloosa County....

1320. RTLSNK
1321. IKE
Here's the good news...so far...

Tornado Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
Wind Reports (in CSV format)
No reports received
1322. RTLSNK
Radar was lost in cyberspace somewhere.
Will try again later, need coffee.
Panama city MIGHT HAVE A WATER SPOUT MOVING IN.



1324. IKE
Line is bowing as it moves through Okaloosa county.

***TVS south of Andalusia,AL***
1325. IKE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
NORTHERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...ELBA...
WESTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GENEVA...

* UNTIL 615 AM CST

* AT 511 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANDALUSIA TO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ANDALUSIA TO 43 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSA
BEACH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS BY 540 AM CST...
ELBA BY 550 AM CST...
SAMSON AND GENEVA BY 600 AM CST...
NEW BROCKTON BY 605 AM CST...
ENTERPRISE BY 610 AM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN EXITS 70 AND 96

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

1326. P451
This can't end well....

1327. IKE
TVS moved through Andalusia. Another one heading for Panama City.
1328. RTLSNK
Can't get the radar image to download for Panama City, K7 approaching the city now.
1329. IKE
Tornado warning for Bay County...til 6:45am CST.

Statement as of 5:41 AM CST on December 02, 2009

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
central Bay County in the Panhandle of Florida...
this includes the cities of... Panama City... Lynn Haven...
Callaway...

* until 645 am CST

* at 539 am CST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
developing tornado 15 miles southwest of lower Grand Lagoon... or 18
miles southwest of Panama City... moving northeast at 30 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
lower Grand Lagoon by 605 am CST...
upper Grand Lagoon and Tyndall AFB by 610 am CST...
Panama City and Pretty Bayou by 615 am CST...
Hiland Park... Springfield and Callaway by 620 am CST...
Lynn Haven by 625 am CST...

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
destructive straight line winds.
Good morning.. I agree 451
1331. IKE
TVS...tornado warning...about to reach the coast of Bay county.
1332. P451
Not good.

1333. P451
1334. IKE
Impressive system on satellite.
1335. IKE
Channel 7 in Panama City has Vipir radar and showing the rotation approaching land now.

***Rotation on land***

***looks like it's now weakening***
1337. IKE
Quoting IKE:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
NORTHERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
COFFEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...ELBA...
WESTERN GENEVA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GENEVA...

* UNTIL 615 AM CST

* AT 511 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANDALUSIA TO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ANDALUSIA TO 43 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSA
BEACH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS BY 540 AM CST...
ELBA BY 550 AM CST...
SAMSON AND GENEVA BY 600 AM CST...
NEW BROCKTON BY 605 AM CST...
ENTERPRISE BY 610 AM CST...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN EXITS 70 AND 96

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.



This one's been canceled. Line weakened. Thank you!
1338. P451
That had to be pretty rough...

Good Morning,
No Surfing on the" Carolina Coast" for a while!!!

Forecast as of 6:06 am EST on December 2, 2009
South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... a deepening low pressure system emerging from the Gulf of Mexico will bring hazardous seas and strong winds today and Thursday. High pressure will build in behind a cold front late Thursday into the weekend...but a coastal system offshore may affect the local waters late Friday into early Saturday.
Gale Warning in effect through Thursday morning
Forecast as of 6:06 am EST on December 2, 2009
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Today
Se winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt... becoming S 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft...building to 8 to 10 ft this afternoon. Rain. A chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight
SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 12 ft...subsiding to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Near shore...seas 6 to 8 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Thu
SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Near shore...seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning.
Thu Night
NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming N around 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri
NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
1340. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Channel 7 Live Feed


Looks like somebody will get wet today. Mean looling trail on this one.
1341. VTG
There was incredible rain over Pensacola a few minutes ago. It looks like that storm is moving into Santa Rosa county now.
1342. IKE
Jason Kelley was the chief met at channel 7 in Panama City. He stepped down in October to go to work at WBRC...channel 6 in Birmingham,AL.

Found this from an article on his move....

"Kelley announced four weeks ago his intention to leave the station. His new position as staff meteorologist for WBRC will be more behind the scenes than he was in Panama City. Kelley will have more research projects, he said, but will be a lead forecaster on tropical weather.".....

Tropical weather in Birmingham? Huh? Their close to 300 miles inland. I know they get leftovers sometimes, but tropical weather in Birmingham?
1343. IKE
Tornado warning in Bay county will be canceled.
1344. P451


Purple = slow.
Blue = medium.
Light blue/greens = faster.

1345. P451
If those wind streams hold true then the Florida peninsula is in for hell.
1346. VTG
12/02/2009 0525 am

Pensacola, Escambia County.

Flood, reported by Emergency Mngr.

Flooding on Mobile Highway at Michigan.
Tampa has a SSE wind currently.........that is not good. Shear will be present!
Quoting IKE:
Jason Kelley was the chief met at channel 7 in Panama City. He stepped down in October to go to work at WBRC...channel 6 in Birmingham,AL.

Found this from an article on his move....

"Kelley announced four weeks ago his intention to leave the station. His new position as staff meteorologist for WBRC will be more behind the scenes than he was in Panama City. Kelley will have more research projects, he said, but will be a lead forecaster on tropical weather.".....

Tropical weather in Birmingham? Huh? Their close to 300 miles inland. I know they get leftovers sometimes, but tropical weather in Birmingham?
leftovers does not live that far from the sea
Quoting TampaSpin:
Tampa has a SSE wind currently.........that is not good. Shear will be present!
'


Their talking about record heat today as well. This could prove to be a little stronger than anticipated for the peninsula.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
'


Their talking about record heat today as well. This could prove to be a little stronger than anticipated for the peninsula.


High pressure at the surface in the central GOM is bringing up the SSE winds and the Heat
1351. IKE
TVS in southern Okaloosa county...near Fort Walton Beach....
EEEK!

Yeah, those streamlines are nasty looking.
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?

Quoting BobinTampa:
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?



Surface winds are out of the SE, Winds aloft are out of the SW.

CASE 4: STRONG SPEED SHEAR, STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR

This situation can produce single-cell super-cells. This is the best situation in order to produce a rotating updraft. The speed shear enables the storm to move quickly and helps keep the updraft and downdraft separated while the directional shear helps rotate the updraft into the storm. These storms can produce large hail, strong tornadoes and heavy rain.
1355. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-021530-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
630 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

...POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON FRIDAY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND
INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER
INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE
WITH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR SO THAT WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL POSSIBLY START AS RAIN BUT THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL.

THIS SCENARIO REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
FORECASTERS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST DATA AND MAKE
CHANGES AS NECESSARY. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND LOOK FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THE WINTER
WEATHER THREAT.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Surface winds are out of the SE, Winds aloft are out of the SW.

CASE 4: STRONG SPEED SHEAR, STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR

This situation can produce single-cell super-cells. This is the best situation in order to produce a rotating updraft. The speed shear enables the storm to move quickly and helps keep the updraft and downdraft separated while the directional shear helps rotate the updraft into the storm. These storms can produce large hail, strong tornadoes and heavy rain.



I'm not saying that is what CFL is in for, just explaining the shear.
The way things have slowed and the dip in the NOrthern Jet from above..we might see a pretty large Snow storm starting to come together.
1359. IKE
New Orleans...LONG TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERTAINS TO WINTRY
PRECIP. GFS HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW
THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF STILL HAS
NOT COME AROUND TO THIS SOLUTION BUT MODELS DO AGREE THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH...PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP TO
DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS AT BTR AND MCB SHOW SATURATION IN THE -10
TO -20C DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS WELL AS COLUMN TEMPS BELOW FREEZING
FROM AROUND 1500KFT AND UPWARDS AFTER 06Z SAT. THIS TYPE OF SOUNDING
WOULD PRODUCE STRICTLY SNOW. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD
-SN TO THE FORECAST FROM BTR TO POPLARVILLE AND NORTHWARD. LATEST
MEX CAME IN AT 70PCT AND PREVIOUS RUN HAD MID 40S. B/C OF SUCH A BIG
CHANGE...DECIDED TO STAY ON THE LOW SIDED OF GUIDANCE AT 40PCT WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS EVENT. LAST YEAR/S SNOW ON DEC 11TH WAS THE EARLIEST ON
RECORD...SO CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SNOW
DEVELOPING. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.


Baton Rouge,LA. forecast...Friday Night: A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Bingo just as i thought...this might be changing very quick to HEAVY winter stuff
1362. SQUAWK
AT THE CURRENT TIME SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STRONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN
THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

JOHNSON
Current conditions (inland side of Tampa, immediately east of I-75):

68.7 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 65 °F
Wind: 2.4 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 2.4 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


will be interesting to see how this changes through the day.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow, that is the clearest image (so to speak) I've seen of what happening, on a macro scale. Thanks!
This has the potential to get ugly fast.

SPC AC 021243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST WED DEC 02 2009

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SRN AL/NRN FL
INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA...

...NERN GULF COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF THE ERN GOM AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM
FORECAST. THIS AREA WILL BE OVERSPREAD BY A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
WIND FIELDS AHEAD OF COMPACT SYSTEM. IF SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/HEATING CAN DEVELOP WITHIN MODEST WARM SECTOR EVOLVING
FROM NWRN FL/SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...THEN ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND LEWP STRUCTURES
WITHIN A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FORECAST TO ADVANCE ENEWD ACROSS THE
REGION. PERSISTENT QUESTIONS ABOUT INSTABILITY PRECLUDES MDT RISK
ATTM...BUT OUTLOOK COULD BE UPGRADED LATER TODAY.


12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LARGE AREA OF COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL
AIR REMAINED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS INTO CENTRAL/NRN
GA...WITH MARINE/WARM FRONTS EXTENDING JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE AND
ERN CAROLINAS. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NWD
RECOVERY OF 60+F SFC DEW POINTS INTO MORE CENTRAL-SRN GA AND THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH GRADUAL INLAND RECOVERY OFF THE ATLANTIC EXPECTED
INTO ERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. BROKEN SQUALL LINE
ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER FAR SWRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND
EVENTUALLY BUILD SEWD INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON
QUALITY OF PRECEDING INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE BOTH WITH THE LINE AND WITH ANY
PRECEDING DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THREAT WILL RAMP-UP BY THE MID MORNING WITH ANY ENSUING
TORNADO POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE STRONG/DAMAGING GIVEN SFC-1 KM
SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2 AND SFC-6 KM BULK SHEAR GREATER THAN 50
KT.
NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC BUT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY.

THREAT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO PARTS
OF ERN GA/SC AS MARINE AIR ADVANCES INLAND FROM INCREASING SSELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS...DESPITE PERSISTENT MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS AREA MAY EVOLVE SEPARATELY OR ALONG NRN FRINGE OF
BROKEN SQUALL LINE ADVANCING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...BUT SHOULD ALSO
ADVANCE QUICKLY NEWD IN THE FORM OF FAST MOVING LINES AND/OR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SERN VA. GIVEN EXTREME
WIND FIELDS...WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. SHOULD AIR MASS RECOVER AS FORECAST...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS
THIS REGION.

...NRN AL TO ERN KY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN FARTHER S...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
HAIL.
snowing in Dallas.
1370. icmoore
Good morning and thanks for all the info as always!

#1368
Yikes, say it ain't so LOL, that looks nasty indeed.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
851 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BLAKELY...
NORTHWESTERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 915 AM EST

* AT 850 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLAKELY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLAKELY BY 905 AM EST...
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


Wow, that is the clearest image (so to speak) I've seen of what happening, on a macro scale. Thanks!


Your welcome....things will be changing today very quickly as the Jet Stream appears to have dropped further south than models showed...its already near North Texas now...I'm saying one big Snow Storm is coming in the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could be devloping and move onto the EAST coast.....Its a double banger as another Low develops and rides the Southern Jet Stream.
The Pennisula of Florida is in for a rocking today as the heating of the day causes even more instability......Gang this not good...VERY SEVERE WEATHER is coming....I have sunshine in Tampa now...we need cloud cover soon or there is going to be one heck of an explosion later
I'll be leaving for Sanford, Melbourne, then Titusville shortly. Don't want to get caught up in any of this late this afternoon!

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
553 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. (Edited for Brevity; link to full discussion, including marine & wind forecast, below.)

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WHILE THE PARAMETERS THAT ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AND TORNADIC STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA... IT APPEARS AS THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR VALUES...FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS INTENSITY AS TRAVELS EASTWARD AND REACHES EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS OUTLINED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...OR FROM CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OR TORNADOES INCLUDES ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHILE THE EXACT TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AT THIS TIME THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SOMETIME AFTER SUNSET...BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS OR BANDS OF STORMS MAY FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AROUND...OR A LITTLE BEFORE SUNSET.
THE LINE WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE FOUR CORRIDOR FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND THEN PERHAPS WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR ACQUIRING ROTATION...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OR TORNADO.
...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER. FORMAL ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
$$
SEDLOCK
Link
The collision line is currently in the Pennsicola area it appears
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Pennisula of Florida is in for a rocking today as the heating of the day causes even more instability......Gang this not good...VERY SEVERE WEATHER is coming....I have sunshine in Tampa now...we need cloud cover soon or there is going to be one heck of an explosion later


It's a beautiful day in Tampa.
Good Morning Everyone! Looking forward to pics of snow in Texas. Nothing happening here. Our local news has gone stupid -- seems like all they can talk about is the couple who crashed the White House, hope their 15 mins. is crummy.

In other news(?)...O Canada! Should we have a category called Extreme Recycling?:


Going green? Why not rent a Christmas tree
AFP, This morning

OTTAWA (AFP) %u2013 Going "green" has never been so festive as in westernmost Canada where two start-ups are offering an eco-friendly Christmas tree rental service for the holiday period.

For about 100 dollars, Evergrow Christmas Trees and Carbonsync Christmas will drop off a potted tree at your home or business and pick it up three weeks later after all the presents have been opened and Santa has parked his sleigh.

Carbonsync plans to donate its trees to habitat restoration groups for replanting after Christmas, while Evergrow says it will return them to a nursery to be cared for until next Christmas when they may be rented out again.

Trees normally cost four times less on average, but are usually turned into mulch or sent to garbage dumps after the holidays in most North American cities.

"What (folks) are doing now is they're growing these hordes of trees everywhere in the Fraser Valley to ship to Vancouver," Brad Major of Carbonsync Christmas told public broadcaster CBC.

"These trees grow anywhere from six to 12 years to be used for one Christmas, and all these trees go to the landfill, and it's this huge pile of trees," he said. "It's like the biggest waste of a resource."

The firms' trees will also continue to draw CO2 from the atmosphere, doing their bit to help curb global warming instead of ending up as waste.

And if a family wishes, they may even rent the same tree year after year from Evergrow, as long as it has not grown too large to fit in their living room.
Quoting CaneWarning:


It's a beautiful day in Tampa.


Bro this sun out now is not good! As peaceful and nice as it looks now....its going to shout later
Quoting BobinTampa:
What are we in for in central Florida? I don't understand the talk of shear, would that help produce tornados? or just big winds?



It helps produce tornado by causing spin in the atmosphere, it helps them to get started.
Stormsurge

Surge for St. Petersburg is already exceeding the forecast by a little less than a foot. Not good for tonight's high tide.
1385. RTLSNK
NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG, NEW BLOG
Sky is clearing up here in Palm Coast, FL. This is NOT GOOD. Expect major problems here later today. Conditions may in fact be ripe and a moderate risk will be needed if clearing continues.
1378. Chicklit, hope you can arrange for an alternate day or a conference call instead. In any case, take care out there.
Hope everyone knows that Red Cross & emergency management changed the advice for getting through a tornado...if there's no strong building available and you're in your car...DO NOT get out and lay in a ditch...Stay in your car, not touching anything metal.
May get real wild here have to wait and see
Port Charlotte fl 12:30 pm
sunny
Temp 84
dew point 71
Humidity 70%
Wind s 17 gust 29
What are the chances of a severe outbreak here?