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Hurricane season begins today; normal June activity expected

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2009

Hurricane season is upon us, and it's time to take a look at the prevailing conditions and 2-week forecast for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fourteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include last year's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2007.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). These temperatures are some of the coolest we've seen since 1995, when the current active hurricane period began. This year's cool SSTs should prevent a repeat of the unforgettable Hurricane Season of 2005, which had the highest SSTs on record in the tropical Atlantic. Note also that SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America are quite a bit above average, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. As I discussed in Friday's post, odds are increasing for a weak El Niño to form in time for hurricane season, and this should cut down on the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes this year. However, if an El Niño is developing, it shouldn't start affecting Atlantic hurricane activity until August.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 26 - 28°C in these regions, which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979, which coincidentally will be the name given to this year's first storm.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for June 1, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, the heat energy available in the tropical Atlantic has declined considerably since 2005, when the highest SSTs ever measured in the tropical Atlantic occurred. TCHP this year is similar to last year's levels, which were high enough to support five major hurricanes.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for May 31 2005 (top), May 31 of last year (middle) and May 30 2009 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. TCHP this year is much lower, and similar to last year. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed. The low shear "hole" has dipped down into the northern Gulf of Mexico a few times. Disturbance 90L, which almost developed into a tropical storm before it came ashore in Mississippi/Alabama on May 23, took advantage of one of these low-shear areas.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the northern Gulf of Mexico will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The latest 16-day forecast by the GFS model (Figure 4) predicts that the subtropical jet will weaken and retreat northwards by the middle of June, creating low-shear conditions over the Caribbean. This is a typical occurrence for mid-June, and we need to start watching the Western Caribbean for tropical storm formation by the middle of the month.


Figure 4. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2009 run of the GFS model for June 1 (left panel) and June 17 (right panel). Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina under low shear, making this area the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. By June 17, the subtropical jet is expected to weaken and move northwards, leaving the Caribbean under low shear, and favoring that region for tropical storm formation. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why 2007's Subtropical Storm Andrea never became a tropical storm. Dr. Amato Evan of the University of Wisconsin will issue his dust forecast for the coming hurricane season later this week, and I'll be discussing his forecast in an upcoming post.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has been typical for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3-5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical June pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any June storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 36% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of June. The current conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are near average, so expect about a 1/3 chance of a named storm between now and June 15. The computer models are currently not forecasting development of any tropical storms over the next seven days.

I'll have an update Tuesday afternoon, when I'll discuss the Colorado State University June Atlantic Hurricane season forecast by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, which will be issued Tuesday morning.

My next analysis and 2-week outlook for hurricane season is scheduled for June 13.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting stormdude77:
He's now ''vortfix''


Seriously?
Ok, I know, I've been obssessed with Drak, I must admit. But only to stress my point, imagine how JFV feels.
Quoting stormdude77:
He's now ''vortfix''


wow what a shocker...
Canewarning, seriously.
Oh. Does anyone recognize any of the handles from the first Dr. Masters blog post with a lot of comments?

Link
Wasn't my plan to start trouble w/ the RandrewL thing. Back to lurkin'.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Canewarning, seriously.


Yeah, I just got my email. Wow. Never would've guessed it. I took some time off in 2006 and came back in 2007. Guess I missed alot.
Quoting Patrap:
My first saved Blog..LOL


Looking at those Katrina pictures make me want to cry.It was such a hard time.Do you have more of those Katrina Pictures from Eastern Jefferson Parish?
Good evening all

I have been following the AirFrance news all day and was wondering about the zone of " thunderous weather " that is being blamed for the loss of the aircraft.

I looked back over some Met 7 images to see what would have been in the way of the flight and came across this image.

Not sure if it matches up with the timeline but this does look like a severe shear zone line.

It could certainly have accounted for the severe turbulence which the automated signals from the aircraft reported back to AF ops center. The 6 hr slides on either side of this frame show the same thing.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh. Does anyone recognize any of the handles from the first Dr. Masters blog post with a lot of comments?

Link


That was when wunderground was actually civilized.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh. Does anyone recognize any of the handles from the first Dr. Masters blog post with a lot of comments?

Link


Look how civilised it look back then. LMAO
hurricane hollow 3 hr barometer bob show at 8 pm
LIVE NOW
Link
514. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh. Does anyone recognize any of the handles from the first Dr. Masters blog post with a lot of comments?

Link


LOL...none of them are on here anymore....
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh. Does anyone recognize any of the handles from the first Dr. Masters blog post with a lot of comments?

Link

They aren't on here anymore.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...none of them are on here anymore....


We're the second generation Wunderground members. The talkative melodramatic generation.
I looked through various entries, and the earliest comment from anyone I remember on here is HAARP on May 6th.
Re my post here is the loop of Met 7. Stop it at May 31st 0600 to see the shear zone

Link
speak for yourself drak :) j/k :)
520. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


We're the second generation Wunderground members. The talkative melodramatic generation.


Must be. I don't recognize any of them. It's almost as if that's a century ago. Where are they? lol.
Hey kman.
Wunderground has become a lot more social lol.
Quoting Drakoen:
Wunderground has become a lot more social lol.


I don't mind it when the season is quiet.
Quoting hahaguy:
Hey kman.


Hi there

Just thinking about weather and aircraft. When a 4 year old high tech modern airliner falls out of the sky from cruise altitude and weather is the suspected cause it makes you stop and think.

This would be avery rare occurrence
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
speak for yourself drak :) j/k :)


Right. That post just pertained to JFV-Presidential Election-WeatherStudent.
I remember back in 2005 there was another main blog on here. The guy who did the blog did forecast for the airline companies.
Quoting Drakoen:


Right. That post just pertained to JFV-Presidential Election-WeatherStudent.


Did he admit to being JFV?
Quoting kmanislander:
Re my post here is the loop of Met 7. Stop it at May 31st 0600 to see the shear zone

Link


It really doesn't look that bad Kman...We may never know..
melodrama indeed! and I was just joking, you're one of the real good ones here Drak. So is kman for that matter.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Yeah, I just got my email. Wow. Never would've guessed it. I took some time off in 2006 and came back in 2007. Guess I missed alot.


You missed a lot in 2006. Things can get interesting when there isn't a lot to talk about.

Quoting kmanislander:
Re my post here is the loop of Met 7. Stop it at May 31st 0600 to see the shear zone

Link

The CV waters are on 24degrees c atm. is that right?
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


You missed a lot in 2006. Things can get interesting when there isn't a lot to talk about.



I can imagine. Oh well, someone will just have to keep me up to speed!
I also remember Rita when someone posted

"I doubt Rita will surpass Gilbert's record"

while she was intensifying.
Quoting TampaSpin:


It really doesn't look that bad Kman...We may never know..


I agree that the severity of the convection does not look bad but note the straight line on the NW side of it. Only strong straight line shear on that side would create that type of signature in the cloud field.
For anyone interested... the link to the spreadsheet with all of the hurricane prediction data from here is finally posted on my blog. Both the current one (at the bottom of the blog), and the original "pretty graphs" blog, as the most recent comment.
My guess is it depressurized somehow. I believe they was at cruising Height. If thats the case thats a long ways down for the fate of those poor people aboard knowing what there outcome would be....WOW! Thats some hard thinking.
Blog archaeology, finding several posts by Dr. Masters with only 2, 3, or 4 comments.
Quoting TampaSpin:
My guess is it depressurized somehow. I believe they was at cruising Height. If thats the case thats a long ways down for the fate of those poor people aboard knowing what there outcome would be....WOW! Thats some hard thinking.


Hopefully they all passed out pretty quickly.
540. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Blog archaeology, finding several posts by Dr. Masters with only 2, 3, or 4 comments.


For the entire blog? Surprising with it being Dr. Masters.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Blog archaeology, finding several posts by Dr. Masters with only 2, 3, or 4 comments.


I can't imagine that.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Blog archaeology, finding several posts by Dr. Masters with only 2, 3, or 4 comments.


I found a 0 comment blog post- Link

I remember this too. Every time the Dr. would post a new blog, all the post from the old would disappear.
2006 was a horrible season.Shear was taking over the whole season.Ernesto was a joke to me because we got a day off of school and there wasn't even a drop of rain that day.
This is an incredibly compact, amazingly intense hurricane, the likes of which has never been seen in the Atlantic. The Hurricane Season of 2005 keeps topping itself with new firsts, and now boasts three of the five most intense hurricanes of all time--Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.

Four years later, this still sends chills up my spine.
Quoting Weather456:
The morning of Wilma, and I could not sleep


Oh God I nearly had a heart-attack that day. I could not believe what I was seeing.
Rita did not surpass Gilbert's record. Wilma did.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The CV waters are on 24degrees c atm. is that right?


SSTs won't begin warming up in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands until around August.
Me nash28 and a few others were hanging out on lefty's blog during the night of Wilma.
IKE is also the second person I recognize to post on Dr. Masters, on June 10, 2005.
The 11th blog entry:

Link
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Me nash28 and a few others were hanging out on lefty's blog during the night of Wilma.


Do you remember someone with the name a lego guy ?
Don't remind me!I tried to stay up all night.Unfortunately I fell asleep and woke up in 3 hours near 5 am when the power went out and got really bad.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Rita did not surpass Gilbert's record. Wilma did.


Yea I know. I was quoting a blogger from the past. During that time some speculate that Rita would surpass Gilbert's record. This was long before Wilma.
Wilma!!! A day of prep, a few days of drinkin' & waitin', another day of prep and drinkin'. 7' atlantic surge before sunrise, 9' gulf late morn' @ my shop. Ford & GM could use that now!
Good evening all! Hope everyone is doing well.

I've moved to Dallas but still following the tropics. Just praying for a pretty tame year.

Dr. Masters 12th blog entry

Link

13th had 6 comments

14th had 4

15th had 3
557. MahFL
I signed up :

2004-06-08 21:45:55

:)
I'm gone till later. Been nice looking back and seeing how far we've come. Night all.

June Outlook
Quoting AussieStorm:

The CV waters are on 24degrees c atm. is that right?


Water temps around the CV islands still pretty cool but remember that the aircraft was on a North Easterly heading from Brazil.

A night time ditching is a low survival event at the best of times. The water temps could be survivable depending on where it went down but from cruise altitude to the surface at night probably meant the aircraft totally disintegrated on impact.

Hopefully they will find the black box and figure this one out. Electrical failure followed by a cabin depressurization sounds like several redundant systems failing in a cascading series of events.
Quoting IKE:
I understand about the differences in small locations....20 or 30 miles...east vs. west of the center...it's just the forecast for every area around where I live is for winds at least 20 mph higher than where I reside. I think the forecaster goofed...but oh well. Looks like Pensacola might be a bullseye for the worst weather...and points eastward too...hopefully in a lesser degree!

The 1st Post I could find that IKE made(June 10,2005)
Patrap, you have images of the eye of Donna in the northeastern USA? I've also always wanted to see radar images of hurricane David off the Georgia coast, but never been able to find them.
563. IKE
Quoting SevereHurricane:

The 1st Post I could find that IKE made.


I remember saying that:)
Ike Radar Image from Ellington FIeld

I just looked back through this site's tropical archives from 1930-2008. The closest to 40n/25w that i could find a storm forming is T.S. Edouard 38n/23w, Aug. 2-3, 1990. The only other storm i could find forming in the last 78 years east of 35 w. and north of 35 n was T.S.11 36.5n/35w Sept. 24-30 1969. Edouard was moving n/n.w. at time of formation. T.S. 11 was moving s.w. Couldn't find any that were moving like our low.
Quoting kmanislander:


Water temps around the CV islands still pretty cool but remember that the aircraft was on a North Easterly heading from Brazil.

A night time ditching is a low survival event at the best of times. The water temps could be survivable depending on where it went down but from cruise altitude to the surface at night probably meant the aircraft totally disintegrated on impact.

Hopefully they will find the black box and figure this one out. Electrical failure followed by a cabin depressurization sounds like several redundant systems failing in a cascading series of events.

yes i agree
Quoting kmanislander:


Hopefully they will find the black box and figure this one out. Electrical failure followed by a cabin depressurization sounds like several redundant systems failing in a cascading series of events.


...I posted earlier

So what happened to Air France Flight 447?

Miles O'Brien is a pilot, airplane owner
and freelance journalist who lives in Manhattan.
His blog is located here:
http://trueslant.com/milesobrien/

"...here is what we do know for sure.
Keep this in mind as you process
the often inaccurate reporting on aviation that is so prevalent..."

.........
above blog server appears to be overwhelmed, so read the text here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5505BF20090602?virtualBrandChannel=10531


CRS
Quoting IKE:


I remember saying that:)


What were you talking about?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Patrap, you have images of the eye of Donna in the northeastern USA? I've also always wanted to see radar images of hurricane David off the Georgia coast, but never been able to find them.






Donna in the Keys

Water Obs




Quoting CaneWarning:


What were you talking about?


6-10-2005...had to have been TS Arlene.
Category 4 Hurricane Audrey Radar Loop
Will the low dissipating to the north of our AOI affect development at all? Also Dvoraks were issued earlier on this "invest" but I seem to have a malfunctioning link for NOAA's Dvoraks can someone post one for me? Thanks in advance!
I didn't realize this blog was so young. I learned of this site from Paul & Young Ron Brewer @ Zeta 4 rock & roll in S Fl. mid to late 90's. Have turned many a soul on to Dr M over the years. Thought ya'll had been yakin' a little longer though.
Ah yes...the ridiculous Dr. Masters nostalgia blog.

I see you peeps are pining for earlier days.

Quoting SevereHurricane:
Category 4 Hurricane Audrey Radar Loop


Radar has come a long way.
576. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


What were you talking about?


There was a storm, I forget which, that was forecast to make landfall close to where I live. All of the forecasts for areas near me...Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, Destin, Milton...had winds forecast 20 mph higher than my Defuniak Springs,FL. forecast.

My unprofessional opinion I thought the forecast winds for my area was too low.
Good evening all...Here's to a tranquil season with no hardships or tragedy for anyone.
Hurricane David in the Atlantic

Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane David in the Atlantic




That's a nice looking storm.
SevereHurricane, Ike made this post 2 hours earlier:

25. IKE 8:24 PM GMT on June 10, 2005 Hide this comment.
I live in Defuniak Springs, Florida and believe me...we DON'T need any rain any time soon. We've had enough to last for awhile. Interesting forecast in that our winds aren't suppose to be much above 20 mph...maybe 30 in gusts, but the NEXT county over...Okaloosa County/Crestview has a forecast of gusts to possibly 70 mph! There can't be that much difference in 25 miles of location....someone will be right and someone will be wrong.
582. IKE
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
SevereHurricane, Ike made this post 2 hours earlier:

25. IKE 8:24 PM GMT on June 10, 2005 Hide this comment.
I live in Defuniak Springs, Florida and believe me...we DON'T need any rain any time soon. We've had enough to last for awhile. Interesting forecast in that our winds aren't suppose to be much above 20 mph...maybe 30 in gusts, but the NEXT county over...Okaloosa County/Crestview has a forecast of gusts to possibly 70 mph! There can't be that much difference in 25 miles of location....someone will be right and someone will be wrong.


One month after that I went into kidney failure and almost died....7-11-2005. Doctor told me I waited a week too long:(

I was on dialysis from July of 2005 to January 1st of 2007.

My kidneys came back:)))
The best "blown" storm forecast I recall was Betsy. Which actually is the first one I can remember. I was in Pats area. Slidell. To young to fear, but I could show you where every tree fell. Camille was the first blow that meant work for me, (Ocean Springs, Ms ). From then on, a whole different perspective.
Quoting Patrap:
LARGE Image of David near Georgia



0____________o wow over winter you forget how scary a full blown major hurricane is
It may be a slow season..but always be aware...

Hurricane Ike
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane David in the Atlantic



Beautiful Storm
Ahh...David...back when we would "tape" our windows. oops.
Glad you made it back IKE :)
Oh please Patcrap...give it a rest.
You're posting stuff you never went through!

Ike is one tough Guy.
He wears and tears and comes back swinging.

And we glad to have him when the going gets Rough here.



My Local NWS Radar, Slidell Office from August 28-29 2005
Quoting IKE:


One month after that I went into kidney failure and almost died....7-11-2005. Doctor told me I waited a week too long:(

I was on dialysis from July of 2005 to January 1st of 2007.

My kidneys came back:)))


Good Lord!! Glad your alright now!!
593. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Ahh...David...back when we would "tape" our windows. oops.


LOL....that stuff don't all come off. I found that out.

I was in Panama City,FL. when Camille hit. We had winds to 50+ mph.

What a total beast!
where are you finding the Donna and Audrey loops?
Whats the view on the invest, a bit reminiscent of Hurricane Vince but not near as powerful.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
That was the most work of all. One month later!
597. IKE
589 and 592...I could tell you some stories...what a ride. Thanks for the kind words.....
Quoting Patrap:

LARGE Image of David near Georgia



...oops

That image of David is South of Haiti

David was Cat 5 prior to being ripped by mountains of Haiti

I was living in the Exuma cays (Bahama's) in 79 when he came over us it was just a cat 1.

CRS
Hello everyone!
See we have an invest in the atlantic...
Very interesting.. I guess this will definatley be one for the fish... Anybody have thoughts on how the east coast will be impacted this year(specifically SC northward)?
I'd love to see a hurricane David pic from bout 3 hours earlier when it was abeam of me.
Back to "lurkin", 'till the winds wind up here. For real, I love this crowd!!! Wish it never got so popular. To much BS when you need facts. Pat. keep up the good work!!!!! You are a wealth of info & resources.
Watching this gives me the chills...

Hurricane David...yeah...we had a whole lot of that one!






604. JRRP
Link
David 1979
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Will the low dissipating to the north of our AOI affect development at all? Also Dvoraks were issued earlier on this "invest" but I seem to have a malfunctioning link for NOAA's Dvoraks can someone post one for me? Thanks in advance!

Sorry I want to ask an on-topic question, but can someone help me with this?
We have now invest 92L.

NHC_ATCF
invest_al922009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906020137
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP/strong>
Cool JRRP--not what I am looking for but very cool nonetheless!
92 not up on the Navy site yet
609. JRRP
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Cool JRRP--not what I am looking for but very cool nonetheless!

thanks


^ Anyone know what that is
92L SHIPS data:
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922009 06/02/09 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 37 36 37 37 36 40 34 30
V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 37 36 37 37 36 40 34 30
V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 39 39 39 40 42 43 45 48

SHEAR (KT) 14 7 2 4 6 14 21 27 29 23 24 23 16
SHEAR DIR 197 199 172 344 326 329 315 310 300 295 284 266 242
SST (C) 16.0 15.5 15.1 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.3 13.4 13.6
POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 68 67 66 64 66 68 68 67 64 65 67
ADJ. POT. INT. 65 65 64 63 62 60 63 65 65 63 61 62 64
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -53.6
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1
700-500 MB RH 57 62 61 56 58 56 59 60 61 68 68 62 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 17 16 14 11 11 11 11 19 16 13
850 MB ENV VOR 169 160 161 153 150 138 112 103 91 136 167 172 173
200 MB DIV 25 51 24 34 14 -1 -1 20 20 6 6 -10 12
LAND (KM) 1272 1242 1221 1231 1246 1272 1184 970 686 479 423 365 184
LAT (DEG N) 40.8 41.8 42.8 43.5 44.2 44.7 44.6 44.6 44.8 45.4 46.1 45.9 45.2
LONG(DEG W) 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.8 23.7 21.0 17.3 14.1 12.3 11.5 9.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 8 7 5 2 7 11 13 9 5 6 10
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -12. -10. -8. -8. -8. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -1. -3. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 5. -1. -5.

** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 06/02/09 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)

What I am looking for is a radar or satellite image of hurricane David on the south GA coast abeam of St. Simons Island. I remember being in the western part of the eye, but never been able to confirm that. Pressure fell to 28.66" on home barometer.
Is there a chance 92L will do a loop and hit a certain condo in south Florida?
I have gone thru 3 hurricanes and several tropical storms. When I here people talk about major hurricanes, I never here Camille mentioned. It hit the Mississippi gulf coast in 1969 with reported wind gusts over 200mph and a 30+ foot storm surge. I guess since it didn't hit Miami or New Orleans it doesn't get mentioned much. I brought this up to a forcaster at the National Hurricane Center and he agreed with me. They also did an interview with a woman who was the only survivor of about 45 people at a hurricane party. The building the party was in was leveled, nothing but the foundation was left.
616. IKE
Quoting yekim1984:
I have gone thru 3 hurricanes and several tropical storms. When I here people talk about major hurricanes, I never here Camille mentioned. It hit the Mississippi gulf coast in 1969 with reported wind gusts over 200mph and a 30+ foot storm surge. I guess since it didn't hit Miami or New Orleans it doesn't get mentioned much. I brought this up to a forcaster at the National Hurricane Center and he agreed with me. They also did an interview with a woman who was the only survivor of about 45 people at a hurricane party. The building the party was in was leveled, nothing but the foundation was left.


I've seen pictures before and after. Incredible.
92 L



Hurricane David...

object width="425" height="344">
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

GOES JavaScript Animations
Kamanislander:
maybe this is old news:
Dang! Thought I was posting a link to BBC regarding the Air France plane
What did they hit in that area?
camille was a beast of a storm... 1 for the record books... one of the few landfalling cat 5 storms...
to all you who gave up on this storm and said nothing going on in the tropics.

HA! :)

This has to be some kind of record for an invest out this far... not just in june, but ever.

really good loop: (takes forever but worth it Link
Hurricane Camille...

50 past the hour... just flipped on the weather channel... for the lulz.
Thanks GeoffreyWPB. I just wish I could find a radar loop of David on the Georgia coast, especially off the southern half of the Georgia coast.
Hi, if anyone has satellite pictures of the weather conditions when the Air France plane went down at about 9 p.m. last night, please post them. It looks like weather was the culprit that brought the plane down.
627. XL
Quoting yekim1984:
I have gone thru 3 hurricanes and several tropical storms. When I here people talk about major hurricanes, I never here Camille mentioned. It hit the Mississippi gulf coast in 1969 with reported wind gusts over 200mph and a 30+ foot storm surge. I guess since it didn't hit Miami or New Orleans it doesn't get mentioned much. I brought this up to a forcaster at the National Hurricane Center and he agreed with me. They also did an interview with a woman who was the only survivor of about 45 people at a hurricane party. The building the party was in was leveled, nothing but the foundation was left.


I was actually watching a programme on the History channel this evening and Camille was featured. It was all about the power of the sea and there was a whole segment on hurricanes. It was quite informative.

Thanks in advance to everyone who contributes to the blog. I will be lurking throughout the next 6 months and you will be an invaluable source of information for me.
In the "way back" experience memories...

My first memory of a "Tropical" storm (ex-Hurricane)

was 1955...

On the shore of Lake Huron, in the Thumb of Michigan, Connie:

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1955_charts/at195502.gif

CRS
Quoting ycd0108:
Kamanislander:
maybe this is old news:
Dang! Thought I was posting a link to BBC regarding the Air France plane
What did they hit in that area?


Who knows?. So far the culprit seems to be severe turbulence but modern jets can take a lot of punishment. Turbulence may well have been the start of it but I would be willing to bet good money that several other things went wrong in rapid succession.

I am out for tonight
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi, if anyone has satellite pictures of the weather conditions when the Air France plane went down at about 9 p.m. last night, please post them. It looks like weather was the culprit that brought the plane down.

I don't have any pictures, but you can use CIMSS and go back 21-24 hours. Link It might give an idea of what was going on in that area.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
My understanding is that the pilots on the flight were very experienced.
Guys I would really appreciate it if someone could help me with the question in 605. Thanks!
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Guys I would really appreciate it if someone could help me with the question in 605. Thanks!


If I understood the question I would be happy to help. What is an AOI?
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Guys I would really appreciate it if someone could help me with the question in 605. Thanks!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Quoting CaneWarning:


If I understood the question I would be happy to help. What is an AOI?


Area Of Interest
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Area Of Interest


Oh. I was thinking it had to be related to SOI, but not MJO or SAL and certainly not the TWO.
605. Yes.
Severe, thank you. That was just what I was looking for! I lost my link and the one I googled didn't work either.

CaneWAOI = area of interest. My AOI is now 92L. There is a 1008mb dissipating low just north of 92L. I was wondering if it would affect 92L at all?
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Severe, thank you. That was just what I was looking for! I lost my link and the one I googled didn't work either.

CaneWAOI = area of interest. My AOI is now 92L. There is a 1008mb dissipating low just north of 92L. I was wondering if it would affect 92L at all?


I think it would if it gets close enough.
Hello. I thought I was going to post a link to a website dedicated to the tracking of tropical systems which potentially threaten Texas, since it's June 1st today. (I was going to do it earlier while Tropical Depression #1 was active but was unable).

The address is www.explosivedeepening.net. Click here to go to the Storm Updates page.
Quoting EDTEXAN:
Hello. I thought I was going to post a link to a website dedicated to the tracking of tropical systems which potentially threaten Texas, since it's June 1st today. (I was going to do it earlier while Tropical Depression #1 was active but was unable).

The address is www.explosivedeepening.net. Click here to go to the Storm Updates page.


I don't think you are allowed to do that. I also got an email from someone else advertising another site.
I wonder what this Atlantic hurricane season will bring. I expect it to feature above-average activity. (Around 15 named storms).
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Severe, thank you. That was just what I was looking for! I lost my link and the one I googled didn't work either.

CaneWAOI = area of interest. My AOI is now 92L. There is a 1008mb dissipating low just north of 92L. I was wondering if it would affect 92L at all?


No Problem DL. :)
...from the past:

522. kmanislander 1:04 AM GMT on July 02, 2008
Hi Keeper

I think 92L will be an early season oddity but not for too long.
I'm off for the night. I'll be back tomorrow to watch for little blobs.
What is the progression of an invest? I thought the first official designation was the Navy site.
Storm, good to see you. We're never online at the same time anymore. Will the dissipating low north of 92L affect it at all? maybe with steering? Just wondering...
For the hottie looking for Weather Radios
http://www.midlandradio.com/Desktops-Weather.OCS/WR-300

http://www.reecominc.com/r1630.htm

I bodysurfed 10'-12' in Hurricane David off New Smyrna. Probably wouldn't try it now.
Quoting EDTEXAN:
Hello. I thought I was going to post a link to a website dedicated to the tracking of tropical systems which potentially threaten Texas, since it's June 1st today. (I was going to do it earlier while Tropical Depression #1 was active but was unable).

The address is www.explosivedeepening.net. Click here to go to the Storm Updates page.


Thanks Ed :)
Wow! ORca your up late tonight
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Wow! ORca your up late tonight


Umm its 932 pm
I'm not that old :)
oh you must be on the west coast... For some reason I thought you were in Florida... my bad big fish
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
oh you must be on the west coast... For some reason I thought you were in Florida... my bad big fish


Victoria BC, Canada
BRB checking the pond
Oh wow! no wonder your always mentioning hockey...hehe! Man I bet it is beautiful up there... I have always wanted to drive to Alaska and spend plenty on the scenic routes in Canada.

One of these days when I have plenty of bandwidth left I am going to check out your critter cam or pond cam... whatever it is.
well I am off for now gotta catch my beauty sleep... god knows I need a ton of that... Catch you guys tomorrow..
any aussies awake
orca, burning the after midnight oil
Good morning/ Evening everyone. Nice breeze out there tonight. Reminds me of the night b4 a cane rolls through...Have this feeling this season is gonna be interesting...
hey char ware are you at :)
I well never forget Camille was never close too s. fl. .But if they make a stronger storm I dont want to see it, much less here about it.The intensification of this storm until recent times was truly unprecedented. My god bless anyone that face any such creature.
670. TX2FL
Good evening..

Just thinking about hurricane prep because I'll probably be moving back to FL from TX in Aug-Sep..I was in Big Lots today and they had Borden milk in the paper container that keeps until 4/2010..for 1.00 was thinking of getting about 10 of them and bringing them with..for that price.
Quoting charlottefl:
Good morning/ Evening everyone. Nice breeze out there tonight. Reminds me of the night b4 a cane rolls through...Have this feeling this season is gonna be interesting...

Agreed. Same kinda feeling tonight here in Wilmington, NC, and this year marks the 10th year anniversary of Hurricane Floyd in 1999. Ominous memories for alot of North Carolinans.. Hopefully not a repeat of that season.(Dennis, Floyd, Irene)
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey char ware are you at :)


Sorry was at work couldn't respond right away. Grew up in Port Charlotte just moved again 4th time in a year Cape Coral
Good morning. I see Invest is now officially 92L. Unless this thing does a TD1 (rapidly strengthens from an invest to a td overnight). This should be nothing.
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update

Thanks. Do you want to go on chat?
Quoting cg2916:

Thanks. Do you want to go on chat?


Would like to but have get ready for work, maybe later.
Quoting Weather456:


Would like to but have get ready for work, maybe later.

Ok, thanks.
Morning! 7am here 92L actually looks more tropical today however less organized. I think its chances of being named at least till the post season just went down the toilet overnight.

but here's a great loop if people want it (very nice Europe satellite loop, takes a while to load)
Link

And if anyone is interested... I'm going to have a potentially huge entry on subtropical storms, NHC naming issues, bla bla after work (in about 8 hours) and after some research.. and also an analysis of this storm based on what i've learned. Bookmark my page if interested :)
Good morning
the e. pac to my surprise has not popped yet. have a good day with some happy weather
My analysis of the SSD 92L floaters:

Visible - Looking somewhat good, nice spin, covection looking OK.

Shortwave (IR channel 2) - Pretty disorganized, not looking very good at all.

Water Vapor (IR channel 3) - No dry air in the area, but not a lot of wetness.

IR channel 4 enhancements:

IR channel 4 (plain) - Convection disorganized, barely a center of circulation.

AVN - Very disorganized convection.

Dvorak - Still disorganized.

JSL - A little better, but mainly convection on the east side.

RGB - Still ragged, but better, probably because of the visible loop.

Funktop - Some good convection on the NE side, but still ragged.

Rainbow - Same as Funktop.

Summary: Looks bad, better than last night, but bad. Don't expect this to be anything more than Invest 92L.
Here's a nice RGB/Convection loop.
Give it time to load.....


Link
Secure Connection Failed













www.nemoc.navy.mil uses an invalid security certificate.

The certificate is not trusted because the issuer certificate is unknown.

(Error code: sec_error_unknown_issuer)
684. IKE
Navy doesn't have 92L up yet. Neither does WU.

Is this really an invest?
685. IKE
After looking at what's left of it....bye-bye.
Quoting IKE:
After looking at what's left of it....bye-bye.


not yet... click the link i posted.

also... heres future ANA?
ha i doubt it but its possible
Link
687. IKE
Quoting winter123:


not yet... click the link i posted.

also... heres future ANA?
ha i doubt it but its possible
Link


Your link didn't post. I've got the Navy site bookmarked. There's no 92L on it.
Invest 92L Link
for some reason it is not showing up on the list of storms IKE but it is on the Navy site just click 90E invest and then you will see the link to 92L invest under Atlantic basin
690. IKE
Okay, I see it now.

Thanks ya'll:)


what are they waiting for
They said you to click a link or refresh the page.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


what are they waiting for
Have you looked at the SSD floaters? It may look ok on the visible, but the infrared images show it's very disorganized.
I'll be on chat too if anyone wants to be on.
Invest 92L won't be anything more than 92L, trust me.
Quoting cg2916:
Have you looked at the SSD floaters? It may look ok on the visible, but the infrared images show it's very disorganized.


Yep........ Yesterday 92L looked like much more organized. GFS model was pointing to a warm core at 850 hPa. 92L yesterday had a similar appearance to VINCE (2005). Looking at its sustained wind intensity, perhaps should it be named as Subtropical Storm ANA?

Regards from Spain.
I'll be on later.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


what are they waiting for


Winds aren't just the only thing.

NHC seem to think it's not tropical enough, and not organised enough. Maybe looking for some consistency, though it seems it'll dissipate before that happens.

'
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. '
699. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY
AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
Bye bye, 92L...
701. IKE
Maybe 93L comes out of the GOM....6Z NAM
Quoting IKE:
Maybe 93L comes out of the GOM....6Z NAM


That AOI is already in the GOMEX. Check the satellites
Good Morning Folks....Very hot in the Florida Big Bend yesterday (high of 94) and plenty of moisture all around the Gulf today but too much shear still around and nothing really on deck that I can see in terms of possible formation.....But, if the moisture stays around, and, the shear drops over the next few weeks, you never know (that 36% chance alluded to by Dr. M)
Quoting IKE:
Maybe 93L comes out of the GOM....6Z NAM


You're right. I wonder if Dr. Masters will mention it in his update today. I don't think we have model consensus yet though.
i only see a sheared out system on that nam. a guest on a tv show this morning said the air frances black box should give a ping for 30 days under the water. the problem is it can only be heard a mile away. i thought about that. what if the black box is a mile under the water. it would take a sub to hear it. alot of questions might never be answered.
Quoting CaneWarning:


You're right. I wonder if Dr. Masters will mention it in his update today. I don't think we have model consensus yet though.


Dr. Master's mentioned that little "pocket" of reduced shear in the very Northern part of the GOM near LA/AL/FL; much like the last low finally starting to get it's act together at the last minute before landfall last week...That's what I see in the model run Ike posted, but, the shear may rip this little area of convection apart before it ever gets to the promised land in the Upper GOM..
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F

Good morning.

Hot and sticky here in SE TX.
Gee we usually don't sart our
80 by 8 and 90 by 9 til at least july. lol


Okay - doesn't 92l look like it has an eye? LOL.
Snippet from NWS Tallahassee discussion:

Tonight through Thursday...all models are generally indicating
decreasing upper heights along with increasing deep layer moisture
pushing north across the Gulf Coast from the central Gulf. Will
continue to indicate increasing rain chances through this period with
the best probabilities on Thursday as the front approaches from the
northwest. The GFS remains the more aggressive solution and develops
a surface low associated with a strong vorticity maximum south of New Orleans
later tonight...then shows it on a northeast track toward the
Panhandle coast through the day Wednesday with a quantitative precipitation forecast bomb of 5-10
inches and 20-30 knot winds across the waters. This is likely the
result of the typical feedback issues with this model due to the
fact that its convective precipitation values are only ranging from a
half of an inch to an inch and the GFS stable precipitation are the
higher values previously mentioned. Although this is an issue...an
mesoscale convective system like feature developing somewhere in the vicinity of the
central Gulf Coast through this time can't be ruled out...since
the GFS is more than likely properly sensing the appropriate
instability. To mitigate the high qpf/winds/seas...we will go with
a blend of the met/mav/locally ran probabilities to output more
realistic values.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F

Good morning.

Hot and sticky here in SE TX.
Gee we usually don't sart our
80 by 8 and 90 by 9 til at least july. lol


Not quite as warm to start here in Fort Myers, but the Gulf is warmer; 76 with a water temp of 84-86 between here and Naples
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Hey, StormW. What's your take on 92L, I don't think it'll form anything.
The Tropica Storm Position Page is callig 92L as subtropical:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1200 UTC 42.7N 23.8W ST3.0 92L
02/0600 UTC 41.7N 23.8W ST2.5 92L
01/2345 UTC 40.7N 23.9W ST2.5 INVEST
01/1745 UTC 39.9N 24.7W ST1.5 INVEST

ST: subtropical.

Moreover: 3.0 --> 45 KT winds...

Looking at those data, 92L could be classified as subtropical storm ANA, if I am right....
Since yesterday, 92L has been looking more tropical, but has become more extratropical. Yesterday it was all subtropical.
Quoting eye2theskies:


Not quite as warm to start here in Fort Myers, but the Gulf is warmer; 76 with a water temp of 84-86 between here and Naples


That is warmer! Didn't take long for the gulf to start cooking.

And Good Morning Storm.
Quoting Cazatormentas:
The Tropica Storm Position Page is callig 92L as subtropical:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/1200 UTC 42.7N 23.8W ST3.0 92L
02/0600 UTC 41.7N 23.8W ST2.5 92L
01/2345 UTC 40.7N 23.9W ST2.5 INVEST
01/1745 UTC 39.9N 24.7W ST1.5 INVEST

ST: subtropical.

ST3.0? What's wrong with their satellite? It's not ST and how the heck is that 3.0?
Quoting StormW:


I think the NHC is bored...already lookin at stuff outside the tropics...I mean, NE of the Azores...gimme a break.

Haven't been a big fan of the NHC so far this year. 90L was tropical and the NHC knows it, they just didn't want to be wrong. TD1 should have been 40 mph. 92L shouldn't even be 92L.
Quoting StormW:


I think the NHC is bored...already lookin at stuff outside the tropics...I mean, NE of the Azores...gimme a break.


LOL.
721. IMA
Homeless, tell me about it. Too dang hot & sticky, & it started too early! Just praying for more rain - for the aquifer AND so I can stand out in it to cool off. lol
Actually if we had better experts at the NHC, this would be Subtropical Storm Bill and the one that hit Alabama should have been Tropical Storm Ana... This is getting ridiculous now, 92L needs to be upgraded. Stop the nonsense NHC!
Might want to start keeping an eye on that blob moving NE in the GOM...
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That is warmer! Didn't take long for the gulf to start cooking.

And Good Morning Storm.


Agreed. It's actually been warmer over the last few days. When I was looking back at the archive water temp data for both Fort Myers and Naples over the last couple days, they showed that Naples was actually up to 89 and Fort Myers was up to almost 87 yesterday afternoon. Not encouraging when the Gulf is like bathwater this early!
I've already said this, but that is way too far north for June development. Even if it were September 10, I wouldn't count on formation.

P.S. Is this ST3.0 to you?
I'm not sure why everyone is critical of the NHC. They have standards for naming these systems and apparently none of them have deserved to be named.
Quoting panamasteve:
Might want to start keeping an eye on that blob moving NE in the GOM...
Nothing much yet.
This is why the NHC isn't naming these things: their forecast was low for activity, so they're keeping the naming conservative.
Quoting StormW:


I think the NHC is bored...already lookin at stuff outside the tropics...I mean, NE of the Azores...gimme a break.


Thank you, StormW, for the humor in the early AM.
Critical?? There's a reason why I am critical. I have a friend who lives in the Panhandle of Florida.. He was actually heading to Mobile the day the Unnamed Tropical Storm (90L) made landfall. He said it was exactly like a 50 mph. Tropical Storm. Now TD1 never reached 40 mph, they were good on that.. but this is getting ridiculous with 92L. It's already a Subtropical Storm with 50 mph. Doesn't matter if it's in cooler waters, things happen, remember Vince anyone? NOTHING is impossible but the NHC doesn't want to be proved wrong like last year so they won't name many storms this year.
Quoting cg2916:
Nothing much yet.


Convection is starting to wane already and sheer is starting to take it's toll on it as it nears that band of 50 MPH sheer just to it's north........We will probably have the answer (dissipation) by later today IMHO
722: Better experts at the NHC? Where do you expect to find better experts than the National Hurricane Center? Maybe if we stop wishcasting every storm into an apocolypto-cane...

Really. Its getting old. The NHC upgrades objectively, based on very standard criteria. The latest thing up by the Azores did not have the winds for an upgrade. 90L didn't have the organization and sustained winds until very late.
Quoting StormW:


Good morning, Ma'am!


Seems like this is almost the opposite of last year, when a system almost had to be ready to name before they looked at it?
Quoting jeffs713:


Thank you, StormW, for the humor in the early AM.


Hilarious.
Quoting IMA:
Homeless, tell me about it. Too dang hot & sticky, & it started too early! Just praying for more rain - for the aquifer AND so I can stand out in it to cool off. lol


Lol. We're back to the usual 20-30% chance every evening. Sigh getting too hot to fish too. Lol.
Isn't the shear forcast to become more favorable in the vicinity of GOM blob?
NHC does have some of the best experts in the world on this issue (including, formerly, our Dr. Masters)and they do a great job and have been steadily improving forecasting issues over the past 15 years....However, all experts recognize that the biggest gap is in the realm of intensifcation issues; that 90L just deepend quite a bit just as it made landfall when it hit the pocket of favorable shear..Don't blame NHC for that one..
They just don't want to be proved wrong, so they don't name these storms, it's not wishcasting, look at 90L, tell me that wasn't at least Subtropical when it made landfall. They're on to a bad start this year, hopefully they will get better.
739. IKE
Buoy reading at 5:50 am CDST...buoy in the BOC....the reading is over 2 hours old, but it's the last one posted...

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.6 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.4 °F
Well, like in 2006, they will have to admit their mistakes when the re-analyze after the season is done.
Lets all not forget our tinfoil hats.

Honestly though... the NHC is tasked with weather forecasting to protect the public. If they start naming every naked swirl or thunderstorm complex that could possibly develop maybe, the public would grow very tired of it, and stop heeding the warnings. IMO, STS should never be named, especially since they do not have a tropical structure, and their impacts are totally different than a tropical system's. (they are more rain than wind... and you can get just as much rain out of a baroclinic low)
743. IKE
Quoting StormW:


You're welcome...yeah, I'm waitin' for them to start designating the polar vortex as an INVEST.


LOL.

I get a kick out of how they describe 92L...."A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE"

"non-tropical"? Then why are they even mentioning it?
Quoting StormW:


You're welcome...yeah, I'm waitin' for them to start designating the polar vortex as an INVEST.


Maybe they'll post a storm warning for Mount Washington while they're at it... :-)
Quoting StormW:


You're welcome...yeah, I'm waitin' for them to start designating the polar vortex as an INVEST.

They have, and are now calling it officially 92L. The SSD is calling it ST3.0
strength on Dvorak.
I really doubt the NHC is worried about being wrong with their pre-season numbers. They aren't naming these storms because these storms do not deserve to be named.
Quoting IKE:


LOL.

I get a kick out of how they describe 92L...."A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE"

"non-tropical"? Then why are they even mentioning it?


I think they call Subtropical Storms "NON-TROPICAL"
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
NHC does have some of the best experts in the world on this issue (including, formerly, our Dr. Masters)and they do a great job and have been steadily improving forecasting issues over the past 15 years....However, all experts recognize that the biggest gap is in the realm of intensifcation issues; that 90L just deepend quite a bit just as it made landfall when it hit the pocket of favorable shear..Don't blame NHC for that one..


Moreover, consensus in forecasts is needed inside of any National Weather Service of any country. For example, at Spain: there are Territorial Delegations of our AEMET Each delegation makes its own forecasts for its region, but those forecasts need to be agreed with the main centre of AEMET (located in Madrid). It is a very complex network!

Then, the situation can be very similar with your NHC which depends on the NWS, etc... They can't give a name "easily", as a consensus is needed between each part of this network.

Not sure if you understand what I want to mean... (oh, my bad English.............)
LOL. Just think of how this blog will blow up when that happens. Half the blog will go nucking futs over it, and the other half will be too busy laughing to say anything.
If the GFS were to be correct, we would have another "Arthur" for Mexico next week or so lol..

The NHC makes mistakes like we all do, they made a mistake with 90L, I think they will be smarter with this one, lets not forget Vince in 2005, formed in waters cool as the waters where 92L is, and Vince I believe formed in the same exact spot!
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Exactly. They were WAY off on 2005... but they kept on naming storms.
Quoting jeffs713:
LOL. Just think of how this blog will blow up when that happens. Half the blog will go nucking futs over it, and the other half will be too busy laughing to say anything.


You're presuming half of the blog isn't already nucking futs... LMAO
Well you can certainly tell that there isnt anything out there to talk about because the WU bloggers are all now arguing over what isnt there and whether the non-tropical low should be named, investigated or not. LMAO
Quoting reedzone:
If the GFS were to be correct, we would have another "Arthur" for Mexico next week or so lol..

The NHC makes mistakes like we all do, they made a mistake with 90L, I think they will be smarter with this one, lets not forget Vince in 2005, formed in waters cool as the waters where 92L is, and Vince I believe formed in the same exact spot!

Actually, Vince formed very late in the season, and Atlantic waters were abnormally high across the board that season, so the waters were significantly warmer... around the 23-24C level if I remember. The waters right now off the Azores aren't even 20C.
Some of you folks need to relax on here, you will have plenty to track in the next few months, you are guranteed that the models will spit out a major cane somewhere along the line if nothing else and Ike will post these so enjoy the season. I'm sure some folks who got flooded in FL have a name for that low. Weather is weather it does not need names or designations.
LOL,wow, are we impatient this year. Sounds like people think we should be up to the letter "D" by now.
I'm sure the NHC knows their stuff. (God knows they know a lot more than I do) But they do make mistakes... I think...lol Anyway I saw some man from the NHC on tv last night talking about last years U.S. landfalling storms beginning with Faye,Gustav,Hanna, and ending with Ike. Now I can see why Edouard didn't get a mention. LOL (I didn't even lose electricity.) But didn't Dolly make landfall in south Texas??
757:yea w/named it ,it begins w/mother,lol.....
762. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Some of you folks need to relax on here, you will have plenty to track in the next few months, you are guranteed that the models will spit out a major cane somewhere along the line if nothing else and Ike will post these so enjoy the season. I'm sure some folks who got flooded in FL have a name for that low. Weather is weather it does not need names or designations.


Exactly...whether it has a name or not.

Thanks for mentioning me:)
I've never seen an invest with 50 mph winds before... I thought when an invest has that hit
those winds and all the other requirements for upgrade, it was upgraded. What requirement is it missing?
764. IKE
Quoting StormW:
What time frame are the models hinting at for GOMEX action?


Within 48 hours.
92L

img
767. beell
756. jeffs713 1:27 PM GMT on June 02, 2009

The waters right now off the Azores aren't even 20C.

Amen!
that did not stop Vince or Epsilon and they where overe 20c of water and they where both hurricanes
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
92L

img



could 92L be what was TD 1???
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Update


Thanks 456, this explained the current scenario with 92 quite well.
771. beell
Most of the ship reports I saw from Sailwx.com (if you believe them) were under 20C
Good morning everyone! Wow, it's bash the NHC morning I see! Anybody that thinks 90L should have been named is crazy. In the Panhandle of Florida we were on it's east side and it was nothing but a few breezy rain showers on Saturday. I was all worried my Memorial Day boating weekend was going to get messed up, boy was I wrong! The weather on Sunday and Monday turned out nice. Mostly sunny with a LIGHT breeze and then some scattered LATE afternoon thunderstorms like we see just about everyday during the summertime. No way 90L was anything but a weak low when it came ashore. Seas came up maybe 1', any weak tropical storm easily brings the water up 2-4 feet. I've lived here since 1992 and seen many a tropical storms and 90L was not even close!
Good morning everyone!
Quoting 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Wow, it's bash the NHC morning I see! Anybody that thinks 90L should have been named is crazy. In the Panhandle of Florida we were on it's east side and it was nothing but a few breezy rain showers on Saturday. I was all worried my Memorial Day boating weekend was going to get messed up, boy was I wrong! The weather on Sunday and Monday turned out nice. Mostly sunny with a LIGHT breeze and then some scattered LATE afternoon thunderstorms like we see just about everyday during the summertime. No way 90L was anything but a weak low when it came ashore. Seas came up maybe 1', any weak tropical storm easily brings the water up 2-4 feet. I've lived here since 1992 and seen many a tropical storms and 90L was not even close!


Thanks for the "firsthand" report (same report here in the Big Bend)....Gotta go get some work done...Be back this afternoon (to see if the blob in the GOM is gone yet...Lol)
NHC did a great job last year, they were right on the money...
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I've never seen an invest with 50 mph winds before... I thought when an invest has that hit
those winds and all the other requirements for upgrade, it was upgraded. What requirement is it missing?

39+ mph SUSTAINED winds. Gusts don't count. Everything I have seen so far says that the winds were not sustained that high over water. Some storms may have had higher gusts, but you can also get higher gusts (and sometimes short-term sustained) from regular thunderstorm cells, too.
780. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Wow, it's bash the NHC morning I see! Anybody that thinks 90L should have been named is crazy. In the Panhandle of Florida we were on it's east side and it was nothing but a few breezy rain showers on Saturday. I was all worried my Memorial Day boating weekend was going to get messed up, boy was I wrong! The weather on Sunday and Monday turned out nice. Mostly sunny with a LIGHT breeze and then some scattered LATE afternoon thunderstorms like we see just about everyday during the summertime. No way 90L was anything but a weak low when it came ashore. Seas came up maybe 1', any weak tropical storm easily brings the water up 2-4 feet. I've lived here since 1992 and seen many a tropical storms and 90L was not even close!


A few breezy rain showers?

Here's a PWS in Niceville,FL. They had 1.27 inches of rain on Friday, May 22nd.

They had 1.70 inches of rain on Saturday, May 23rd.
Here is something interesting from their report:

"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 48 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach. The hurricane forecast team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on various portions of the U.S. coast:

- A 28 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

- A 28 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

New with this forecast are landfall probabilities for the Caribbean and Central America. This season, the forecast team expects a 39 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean, which is slightly lower than the long-term average of 42 percent.

782. IKE
I don't care how many systems CSU forecasts. Plus, it's not really fair that they can adjust numbers after the season starts.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HURRICANE FORECAST TEAM LOWERS FORECAST, NOW ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY BELOW-AVERAGE SEASON IN 2009


11-5-2. Thought they would go to that.

Think it's actually a little low, gone a little too far.

But we'll only know come November 30th.
784. beell
Sometimes an invest is called in the N ATL due to the Navy having "assets" in the area-all it takes...
Quoting StormW:


I think the NHC is bored...already lookin at stuff outside the tropics...I mean, NE of the Azores...gimme a break.


that storm maybe had a warm core for 12hrs or so,I even doubt that...extra-tropical storm,if it was sept or oct. I'd say possibly STS or TS,the waters are waaaay to cool in that area,IMO....
Morning all

I'm sure some folks who got flooded in FL have a name for that low. Weather is weather it does not need names or designations.

Good to see you sg03, and you are correct, the Florida flooding system may not have had a name, but it still impacted so many so seriously...On that note, Portlight is in the process of putting a team together to go down and assist with clean up. Pulling sheet rock, carpet, etc, out of homes. As of now, it looks like we will be in the area beginning June 12. If anyone would like to volunteer or donate to help support this effort; please learn more here!
06.02.2009 1402 UTC
SEVERE TROLL WATCH
THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND BLOG WATCH SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING A SEVERE TROLL WATCH FOR THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND BLOG SYSTEM. DUE TO A LACK OF NOTABLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND ENTIRELY TOO MUCH FREE TIME, THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REPORTS OF TROLLING ON THE BLOGS. PLEASE BE AWARE, AND WHEN IN DOUBT, REMEMBER...

DONT FEED THE TROLLS!

FORECASTER JEFFS713
788. IKE
Quoting IKE:


A few breezy rain showers?

Here's a PWS in Niceville,FL. They had 1.27 inches of rain on Friday, May 22nd.

They had 1.70 inches of rain on Saturday, May 23rd.


Plus, the Sunday after that low moved inland I had......Precipitation: 3.67in

In a feeder band.
Ummm ok... All I asked for was the missing requirement. The info on the WU tropical page
is usually always in sustained winds. And i hope
that "Severe troll warning statement" wasn't directed towards me, because if asking a question is really such a crime on this blog I might as well go somewhere else for my tropical needs.
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
NHC did a great job last year, they were right on the money...


They really did! There were times I doubted them but again and again I was proven wrong!
791. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Ummm ok... All I asked for was the missing requirement. The info on the WU tropical page
is usually always in sustained winds. And i hope
that "Severe troll warning statement" wasn't directed towards me, because if asking a question is really such a crime on this blog I might as well go somewhere else for my tropical needs.


I haven't seen any comments/posts this morning on here by "trolls".
Quoting IKE:
I don't care how many systems CSU forecasts. Plus, it's not really fair that they can adjust numbers after the season starts.


Let's see how they've done in June:

2008: 15-8-4 - real total of 16-8-5.
2007: 17-9-5 - real total of 15-6-2.
2006: 17-9-5 - real total of 10-5-2.
2005: 15-8-4 - real total of 28-15-7.
2004: 14-8-3 - real total of 15-9-6.
2003: 14-8-3 - real total of 16-7-3.
2002: 11-6-2 - real total of 12-4-2.
2001: 12-7-3 - real total of 15-9-4.
2000: 12-8-4 - real total of 14-8-3.
1999: 14-9-4 - real total of 12-8-5.

'Course, with 2005 nobody could of predicted that with any real certainty. They horribly dropped the ball in '06 but the rest haven't been *too* far out.

But yes, any forecasts after June is just cheating!

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
And i hope
that "Severe troll warning statement" wasn't directed towards me, because if asking a question is really such a crime on this blog I might as well go somewhere else for my tropical needs.

nonono, not at all. asking that is a legit question. I was actually responding to a pair of posts several below yours, by CaneWarning and WPBHurricane05.
no trolls this morning...I think he means that if everything stays slow a troll could appear in the next 30 days
795. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Let's see how they've done in June:

2008: 15-8-4 - real total of 16-8-5.
2007: 17-9-5 - real total of 15-6-2.
2006: 17-9-5 - real total of 10-5-2.
2005: 15-8-4 - real total of 28-15-7.
2004: 14-8-3 - real total of 15-9-6.
2003: 14-8-3 - real total of 16-7-3.
2002: 11-6-2 - real total of 12-4-2.
2001: 12-7-3 - real total of 15-9-4.
2000: 12-8-4 - real total of 14-8-3.
1999: 14-9-4 - real total of 12-8-5.

'Course, with 2005 nobody could of predicted that with any real certainty. They horribly dropped the ball in '06 but the rest haven't been *too* far out.

But yes, any forecasts after June is just cheating!



Yup. I just don't care if there are 8 storms or 28 storms. It's where they go that matters to me.

Just a personal opinion.

Thanks 4 the NFO.
D'OH
DAYTONA BEACH -- A Federal Emergency Management Agency worker assessing damages in a flood-affected neighborhood had his rental car stolen Monday morning after he left the keys inside and the vehicle running, police said.

Yeah, when others are name dropping they survived [Insert your TC disaster here], these residents (and their lost FEMA records) say "90L".
Quoting IKE:


Yup. I just don't care if there are 8 storms or 28 storms. It's where they go that matters to me.

Just a personal opinion.

Thanks 4 the NFO.


Absolutely. 1992 can't be repeated enough. And that's hardly a standout exception, either.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
no trolls this morning...I think he means that if everything stays slow a troll could appear in the next 30 days

Exactly. Hence the watch instead of the warning.
6/1/09


6/1/08
haha! gotcha JEff
Quoting IKE:


A few breezy rain showers?

Here's a PWS in Niceville,FL. They had 1.27 inches of rain on Friday, May 22nd.

They had 1.70 inches of rain on Saturday, May 23rd.


IKE you should know we can get 3 inches of rain in 15 minutes sometimes with typical morning showers that come in off the GOM. My point was this was in no way a tropical storm! Yes there were showers most of the day Saturday but I've seen worse cold fronts! Sunday and Monday turned out beautiful on the beach!
CNN just reported they have found plane debris in the Atlantic.
Brazilian aircraft searching for an Air France jet which went missing with 228 people aboard in an Atlantic storm have spotted debris on the ocean.

A plane seat and other items were sighted 650km (400 miles) north-east of Brazil's Fernando de Noronha island, the Brazilian air force said.
It could not be immediately confirmed that the debris came from the Airbus.

The jet was heading from Brazil to Paris when it vanished about four hours into its flight, early on Monday...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8079122.stm

(Dwarfed here by news that our Home Secretary is resigning.)
According to the CSU my area
Region 2
Probability of 1 or more named storms 17.4%
Probability of 1 or more hurricanes 8.8%
probability of 1 or more intense hurricane 2.8%

Climatology Orange Co.
named storm 1.4%

LOL. If you say so. Wonder what the odds were last year? And 2007 and 2005? Rolls eyes.
806. IKE
12Z NAM at 48 hours...

ohhh...so sad that Air Bus...
shear is as high as 50 now in the Gulf but predicted to drop Link
Quoting homelesswanderer:
According to the NHC my area
Region 2
Probability of 1 or more named storms 17.4%
Probability of 1 or more hurricanes 8.8%
probability of 1 or more intense hurricane 2.8%

Climatology Orange Co.
named storm 1.4%

LOL. If you say so. Wonder what the odds were last year? And 2007 and 2005? Rolls eyes.


That forecast is not from NHC but from CSU. NHC does not make landfall predictions.
Quoting Chicklit:
ohhh...so sad that Air Bus...
shear is as high as 50 now in the Gulf but predicted to drop Link


I hope they do find it so they can find out what caused this and hopefully prevent another tragedy like this again. RIP
812. IKE
It may non be tropical, but....

12Z NAM @ 60 hours....

Found the analog years very interesting. Going through each of the analog years finds that either a Tropical Storm or Hurricane did make landfall on the US:

1959: Gracie in South Carolina
1960: Donna, from SW Florida all the way to New England. Ethel, into Mississippi.
1965: Betsy, south Florida and Louisiana.
2001: Allison, Barry and Gabrielle.
2002: Lili into Louisiana.

So, I'm definitely not keying in on those slightly reduced numbers, but instead on the fact that all of the analog years had some type of landfalling storm on the US.


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That forecast is not from NHC but from CSU. NHC does not make landfall predictions.


Thanks. My Bad. I changed it. :)

-- EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page --

Model Cycle: 2009060206



06 Z NAM ,..show's the same ,earlier IKE
92L invest reconnaissance requirements

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
Heathrow International Airport
(Adhoc) UK HURRICANE CENTER, London Borough, England.
0930 AM EDT TUE 02 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: 92L INVEST PLAN OF THE DAY (DW=dressing warmly)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2009
UKPOD NUMBER.....09-005



RAF Hurricane Hunters board the bus to the tarmac.

Quoting moonlightcowboy:
92L invest reconnaissance requirements

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
Heathrow International Airport
(Adhoc) UK HURRICANE CENTER, London Borough, England.
0930 AM EDT TUE 02 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: 92L INVEST PLAN OF THE DAY (DW=dressing warmly)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2009
UKPOD NUMBER.....09-005



RAF Hurricane Hunters board the bus to the tarmac.



Haha! Fantastic.

It's actually up to 80F today though... nice and warm.
LOL. No disrespect, Cotillion. Just trying to generate a lil chuckle.

...but, wow, 92L is like at 45n!!! Much closer to you guys than anything tropical. Pretty weird!

Does the UK have anything similar to our HHs?
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
LOL. No disrespect, Cotillion. Just trying to generate a lil chuckle.

...but, wow, 92L is like at 45n!!! Much closer to you guys than anything tropical. Pretty weird!

Does the UK have anything similar to our HHs?


No worries. A li'l chuckle was indeed generated. :)

I know, the maps even show us. Things of a tropical nature do track by us on occasion (Faith and Debbie come to mind) but very rare cyclogenesis of even a subtropical nature is up here.

Vince was a once in 150 years event. (1843? A cyclone was tracked by Madeira if I recall correctly. In that century anyway.)

We don't have any HHs or anything like that, no. We've enough aircraft though (And didn't the HHs start on a bet between American and British servicemen?) So if push came to shove, we probably could.
Quoting Cotillion:


(And didn't the HHs start on a bet between American and British servicemen?) So if push came to shove, we probably could.

I'm sure you could! :) And, I have no idea about that bet, but it'd be fun reading! Thanks.

Have a good day!
Quoting crownwx:
Found the analog years very interesting. Going through each of the analog years finds that either a Tropical Storm or Hurricane did make landfall on the US:

1959: Gracie in South Carolina
1960: Donna, from SW Florida all the way to New England. Ethel, into Mississippi.
1965: Betsy, south Florida and Louisiana.
2001: Allison, Barry and Gabrielle.
2002: Lili into Louisiana.

So, I'm definitely not keying in on those slightly reduced numbers, but instead on the fact that all of the analog years had some type of landfalling storm on the US.




I agree. Alot of near misses to my area on that list. Just seems like once they started coming here they just won't stop. I could handle another 2006.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:

I'm sure you could! :) And, I have no idea about that bet, but it'd be fun reading! Thanks.

Have a good day!


Wiki says: (Yes I know it's Wiki, but)

"The 1943 Surprise Hurricane, which struck Houston, Texas during World War II, marked the first intentional meteorological flight into a hurricane. It started with a bet.

That summer, British pilots were being trained in instrument flying at Bryan Field. When they saw that the Americans were evacuating their AT-6 Texan trainers in the face of the storm, they began questioning the construction of the aircraft. Lead instructor Colonel Joe Duckworth took one of the trainers out, and flew it straight into the eye of the storm. After he returned safely with navigator Lt. Ralph O'Hair, the base's weather officer, Lt. William Jones-Burdick, took over the navigator's seat and Duckworth flew into the storm a second time.

This flight showed that hurricane reconnaissance flights were possible, and further flights continued on an irregular basis. In 1946, the moniker “Hurricane Hunters” was first used, and the Air Force and now Air Force Reserve have used it ever since."

Have a good day yourself!

Now dwarfing the tragic news of the ditched Airbus, is the news that there's a plan for a move to dissolve Parliament. British elections *could* be coming very soon... Very interesting.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I agree. Alot of near misses to my area on that list. Just seems like once they started coming here they just won't stop. I could handle another 2006.


Interesting,
According to that I have a 3/5 chance of getting hit this year.
Interesting Cotillion thanks. I had no idea thats how it started. And surprise hurricanes are just no fun either. :)
I am beginning to think we might see a surface Low try to devleop in time in the BOC!
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Interesting,
According to that I have a 3/5 chance of getting hit this year.


Thats pretty good odds.Less than 1/5 here.
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical update


Good Job 456! Thats why your one of the best on this blog!
Very interesting, but this was one of the most difficult posts I've ever made. Crazy links, hidden text, etc. UGH! But, thanks Cotillion for the info, and it'll be fun learning more about it.


1943 Surprise Hurricane

The 1943 Surprise Hurricane struck the Houston, Texas area on July 27, 1943. While not a major hurricane, the storm was described as the worst since the 1915 hurricane, which tested the newly constructed seawall at Galveston, Texas, which struck Houston, Texas.

World War II, or the Second World War , was a global military conflict which involved a Participants in World War II, including all of the great powers, organised into two opposing military alliances: the Allies of World War II and the Axis powers, marked the first intentional meteorological flight into a hurricane. It started with a bet.

That summer, British pilots were being trained in instrument flying at Bryan Field. When they saw that the Americans were evacuating their T-6 Texan.

The T-6 Texan was a single-engine advanced trainer aircraft designed by North American Aviation, used to train Fighter aircraft pilots of the United States Army Air Forces, United States Navy, Royal Air Force and other air forces of the Commonwealth of Nations during World War II. They began questioning the construction of the aircraft. Lead instructor Colonel Joe Duckworth took one of the trainers out, and flew it straight into the eye of the storm. After he returned safely with Ralph O'Hair, the base's weather officer, Lt. William Jones-Burdick, took over the navigator's seat and Duckworth flew into the storm a second time.

This flight showed that hurricane reconnaissance flights were possible, and further flights continued on an irregular basis. In 1946, the moniker "Hurricane Hunters" was first used, and the Air Force and now Air Force Reserve have used it ever since.

Swan 38

In 1974, a newly converted WC-130 (serial number 65-0965) was transferred to the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the "Typhoon Chasers", at Andersen Air Force Base.

Typhoon Bess was the twenty-third tropical storm and the ninth typhoon of the 1974 Pacific typhoon season. Though the storm was only a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale typhoon at its peak, it managed to cause $9.8 million dollars worth of damage, enough to merit the name's retirement. The crew departed Clark Air Base when radio contact with the aircraft was lost on 12 October 1974, apparently as the aircraft was heading into the typhoon's eye to make a second position fix. There were no radio transmissions indicating an emergency on board, and search teams could not locate the aircraft or its crew. All six crew members were listed as KIA -Killed in action. Swan 38 is one of very few of Hurricane Hunter flights lost, and the only WC-130 lost in a storm.
Quoting Cotillion:


...is the news that there's a plan for a move to dissolve Parliament. British elections *could* be coming very soon... Very interesting.


Huh? Wow! Maybe that'll catch on in Washington! ;)
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am beginning to think we might see a surface Low try to devleop in time in the BOC!


Its not out of the Question,
Wind Shear is going to relax in the Northern GOM over the next 24-48 Hours so the 12Z NAM isn't far-fetched at all, lets see if the 12Z GFS follows the NAM's footsteps.

87 degree gulf water temps here on Marco Island.
Just learning a whole lot today. Looking up the 1974 season and I found Hurricane Carmen. She was a beast! And N.O. dodged a huge bullet with that 1. And it was also the hurricane they were protraying in Forrest Gump that kicked off the Bubba Gump empire. LOL.

Link

Have a nice day all.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am beginning to think we might see a surface Low try to devleop in time in the BOC!



Keep watching blobs under 40kts of shear all year and you'll drive your self crazy watching every blob,its a trough,thats it!!!
Gotta run but, but here is the 144hr shear forecast....GOM has none!

Quoting TampaSpin:
I am beginning to think we might see a surface Low try to devleop in time in the BOC!

Are you thinking along the trough that is there right now?
Everyone have a good DAy! BB late tonite.
Quoting stillwaiting:



Keep watching blobs under 40kts of shear all year and you'll drive your self crazy watching every blob,its a trough,thats it!!!


Yep that is you my Friend.......LOL
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Just learning a whole lot today. Looking up the 1974 season and I found Hurricane Carmen. She was a beast! And N.O. dodged a huge bullet with that 1. And it was also the hurricane they were protraying in Forrest Gump that kicked off the Bubba Gump empire. LOL.

Link

Have a nice day all.


It snowed in 1973 in New Orleans also...
OK Question for you guys. Does anyone happen to know what the wind shear was over the area where the Air France flight went down? and with the altitude it was flying at is it realistic to suspect lightening to have struck the plan?
Re WX being a factor in the Air France crash. Hubby and I have been light plane pilots since the early 70's. Once had the sad duty of scattering the ashes of one of our flying friends and their children because their plane was literally torn completely apart in a thunderstorm. Of course there's a difference between a jetliner in size and structural strength, but I've flown in clear air near the edge of a cell and the plane (a Cessna 182) been slapped by it like a giant hand and wound up tumbling away from it - Definitely a wake up about not getting near Tstorm tops. The violence inside a supercell is such that airline pilots use their radar to fly around them. Don't know what happened in this case but very sad.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


If that turns out to be true, the blog will kills itself.


One thing to note

Anonymously cold Florida winters are usually followed by a rather tranquil hurricane season. I also noticed the year after that, watch out.
Quoting Kahlest:
OK Question for you guys. Does anyone happen to know what the wind shear was over the area where the Air France flight went down? and with the altitude it was flying at is it realistic to suspect lightening to have struck the plan?


I want to look into the wx details of the flight. Now they found the remains of the air craft we can get an idea of the clouds, lightening, wind shear and other elements.
Also - been in a small plane and hit by lightning. Scared the heck out of us and knocked out our radios but didn't damage the airplane itself. Know of lots of stories similiar to mine. In a lifetime of flying there's lots of need for clean underwear.
Quoting Kahlest:
OK Question for you guys. Does anyone happen to know what the wind shear was over the area where the Air France flight went down? and with the altitude it was flying at is it realistic to suspect lightening to have struck the plan?


The area it went to was notorious for severe turbulence.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


One thing to note

Anonymously cold Florida winters are usually followed by a rather tranquil hurricane season. I also noticed the year after that, watch out.


It was cold in Florida this winter.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep that is you my Friend.......LOL


LOL...
Have a great one TS,just bustn your "you no whats",just like you do to me.....we are still friends though,right???,lol....looks like its going to be a rainy week here in SWFL...
So is it looking like a low could form in the BOC at the tail end of the trough that is there right now?
Quoting Weather456:


...Now they found the remains of the air craft we can get an idea of the clouds, lightening, wind shear and other elements.



Graphics showing flight path & wx etc.:

New York Times:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/06/02/world/0602-for-subAF447.jpg

National Post:

http://www.nationalpost.com/np/1654794.bin

The Brazilian air force released this map locating the debris its search aircraft spotted on Tuesday morning, the red concentric circles mark the two locations 650 km off the South American country's northern coast that could be part of an Air France plane that went missing on Sunday night.

The wreckage, which has not been confirmed to be parts from Air France flight 447, includes metallic objects and plane seats, an air force spokesman said in a televised statement. The Brazilian military reports the wreckage spotted also includes small white pieces, a drum, vestiges of oil and kerosene.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2009/06/02/graphic-brasil-air-force-discove rs-debris-near-air-france-flight-path.aspx


I tried posting these as images...
but blog STRETCHING would occur

CRS
Quoting SevereHurricane:


The area it went to was notorious for severe turbulence.


Thanks, trying to educate a troll on the CBC website lol (I know a lost cause)
Quoting Kahlest:


Thanks, trying to educate a troll on the CBC website lol (I know a lost cause)


Your Welcome!
CBC?
Can I have a link.
I found this to be a very detailed analysis of the weather at the time of the AF 447 incident:

AF 447 Weather Analysis

It would be interesting to hear Dr. Masters' take on the situation...
Quoting SevereHurricane:


CBC?
Can I have a link.
Link
There is the link, This troll seems to think it is an "insult to his intelligence" to claim that lightening or "a little" turbulance had anything to do with the crash, so I said that it must mean he doesn't have a lot of intelligence to begin with
Quoting Kahlest:
Link
There is the link, This troll seems to think it is an "insult to his intelligence" to claim that lightening or "a little" turbulance had anything to do with the crash, so I said that it must mean he doesn't have a lot of intelligence to begin with


Thank You...
Wow The blog is creeping along!

Who think CSU and Dr. Gray are right? or wrong?
Quoting BeanTech:
I found this to be a very detailed analysis of the weather at the time of the AF 447 incident:

AF 447 Weather Analysis

It would be interesting to hear Dr. Masters' take on the situation...


yeah I would like to see Dr. Master's take on this too. would be very interesting
Quoting Kahlest:
Link
There is the link, This troll seems to think it is an "insult to his intelligence" to claim that lightening or "a little" turbulance had anything to do with the crash, so I said that it must mean he doesn't have a lot of intelligence to begin with


Extremely unlikely that it was lightning. Planes are designed to handle it fine. Was actually on a flight where lightning hit a wing... went shooting out the other wing.

They're designed for it.

Turbulence? Completely separate issue.

To me, with the loss of cabin pressure at 35K feet indicates a fuselage breach for whatever reason.

In short, don't argue the lightning point. :)
The sole Americans on that flight were from Lafayette, La.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2009/06/former_lafayette_residents_wer.html
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Wow The blog is creeping along!

Who think CSU and Dr. Gray are right? or wrong?


I don't think they are that far off. They don't have a great record though. What does Accuweather say? I'll be interested in Dr. Masters update this afternoon.
Quoting Seastep:


Extremely unlikely that it was lightning. Planes are designed to handle it fine. Was actually on a flight where lightning hit a wing... went shooting out the other wing.

They're designed for it.

Turbulence? Completely separate issue.

To me, with the loss of cabin pressure at 35K feet indicates a fuselage breach for whatever reason.

In short, don't argue the lightning point. :)


Yeah all I said about the lightening was that it WAS possible for it to have been struck but unlikely as to be the cause of the crash, turbulance and windshear on the other hand those can rip a plane apart.
Does anybody know if the storm may have contained hail when the plane was flying through it?
Quoting CaneWarning:
Does anybody know if the storm may have contained hail when the plane was flying through it?

Yes apparently there was large amounts of hail along with strong shifting winds within the storm cell and yes the plane flew through the top of the anvil of the storm
CSU June 2, 2009

11 storms
5 hurricanes
2 major

870. N3EG
What's up with this 92L? It's at 42N, over 60 degree water, and they're making a big thing about it? Now if was in the Pacific...yeah, I know, I say this every year. At least our storms are featured on Deadliest Catch...
Quoting Weather456:
CSU June 2, 2009

11 storms
5 hurricanes
2 major



I think that's too Low,
I'm thinking around 13-15 NS this year.
it is funny because they are held as the great Know-all of hurricane season and receive so much media coverage and yet their track record is below average.
92L remnains somewhat organize whether or not its over sub-20 waters. I think there's a EURO reccon?

Quoting Kahlest:

Yes apparently there was large amounts of hail along with strong shifting winds within the storm cell and yes the plane flew through the top of the anvil of the storm


My question is this - I just flew from Seattle to Tampa a couple of weeks ago. We went about an hour out of our way to avoid thunderstorms. Why could this flight not do the same? My understanding is that fuel wasn't an issue as cross-Atlantic flights have more than enough fuel for emergency situations such as this.

My best guess is that a series of factors could've caused this plane to go down including hail and strong winds. More than likely something breached the exterior of the plane or maybe hail damaged the engines. I sure hope they find the wreckage and black boxes.
Quoting 858 BeanTech:
I found this to be a very detailed analysis of the weather at the time of the AF 447 incident:

AF 447 Weather Analysis


Very comprehensive...
Thanks
CRS
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Wow The blog is creeping along!

Who think CSU and Dr. Gray are right? or wrong?


Depends by what you mean as correct or incorrect.

It won't be exact, they've not yet managed that. Even if they did, it's likely to be on luck.

However, only once or twice they've been totally out of the ballpark (05-06), so they're likely to be around that area. Yes, a little on the low side... 12-13 seems a bit more predictable unless El Nino really ramps up. No real indication of that happening.
877. IKE
MEMO TO SSD: Please adjust the floater on 92L. It's about to go too far north to see it.

Thanks.
879. IKE
I've got 90 degrees outside my window right now...inland Florida panhandle. It's hot!
Quoting CaneWarning:
Does anybody know if the storm may have contained hail when the plane was flying through it?

CaneW read Bean's link in 858. Really good information!
Disorganize showers continue over the Southern Gulf associated with a surface trough interacting with an upper ridge advancing north.

Quoting IKE:
MEMO TO SSD: Please adjust the floater on 92L. It's about to go too far north to see it.

Thanks.


If it goes any further north, the lens/image frame will have snow around the edge... ;)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

CaneW read Bean's link in 858. Really good information!


Thanks for pointing that out. I missed it the first time around.
Beantech - re your link to the WX analysis. Outstanding report of likely weather impact. I note also the comments by commercial airline pilots who comment favorably on it as well. Thanks.
Weather456, can you answer my question in post 853? Thanks!
886. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Disorganize showers continue over the Southern Gulf associated with a surface trough interacting with an upper ridge advancing north.



There's my relief from the heat advancing toward the north-central and NE GOM coasts.
92L is Extratropical with no chance of conversion. It is supported by an upper level 500mb cold-core low.


888. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


If it goes any further north, the lens/image frame will have snow around the edge... ;)


LOL!
Any chance we could have subtropical storm Ana about 00Z? I have June 3rd as the first named storm for Ossqss's contest :o)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Any chance we could have subtropical storm Ana about 00Z? I have June 3rd as the first named storm for Ossqss's contest :o)


I don't think so! I have June 6. I have my fingers crossed that something will form, but I'm just not seeing it happen. There's always next year.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Weather456, can you answer my question in post 853? Thanks!


The trough is expected to drift northwestward, over the next 24 hrs and even though a low pressure could form along the trough, development still seems unlikely over the next 28-72 hrs.

psst..

New Blog Entry
Quoting MarineMeteorologist:
92L is Extratropical with no chance of conversion. It is supported by an upper level 500mb cold-core low.




Most subtropical cyclones are. Andrea was embedded within a large 500-300 mb trough which contributed to her quasi-stationary motion. It is one of the factors that make then not fully tropical. Organize convection and winds near the center, is what makes them subtropical. The hybrid between the 2 are classified as subtropical cyclones.
Quoting jeffs713:
06.02.2009 1402 UTC
SEVERE TROLL WATCH
THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND BLOG WATCH SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING A SEVERE TROLL WATCH FOR THE WEATHERUNDERGROUND BLOG SYSTEM. DUE TO A LACK OF NOTABLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND ENTIRELY TOO MUCH FREE TIME, THERE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REPORTS OF TROLLING ON THE BLOGS. PLEASE BE AWARE, AND WHEN IN DOUBT, REMEMBER...

DONT FEED THE TROLLS!

FORECASTER JEFFS713

Heh, I have friends on YouTube who issue EAS Troll warnings. no trolls on this blog, happy. :D