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Hurricane season 2005--why so active?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:31 PM GMT on August 01, 2005

This will be my last blog entry until August 12; I'm vacationing far from the tropics (Yellowstone!) to appreciate some mountain weather.

Today's monthly summary of hurricane activity for July issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) states:

"The month of July saw unprecedented tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin...with the development of five named storms...Tropical Storm Cindy...Hurricane Dennis...Hurricane Emily... Tropical Storm Franklin...and Tropical Storm Gert. The previous record for named storms that formed in July was four. The two major hurricanes that developed during the month tied a record set in 1916. The July activity follows an unusually active month of June ...And the seven named storms that have formed thus far in 2005 represent a record level of activity for the first two months of the season."

Why has this hurricane season been so active? Part of the reason lies in a decades-long natural cycle in hurricane activity that in 1995 switched to a high-hurricane activity mode. Hurricane activity has been above normal since 1995, and will likely continue to be for the rest of this decade and the next.

Additionally, there are six key ingredients are necessary for tropical cyclone formation (you can read about these in full detail in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ. We'll focus on three of them in particular that have been highly conducive to tropical cyclone formation during this remarkable hurricane season of 2005.


Vertical Wind Shear
Hurricanes need low values of vertical wind shear between the surface and the upper atmosphere (the jet stream level, typically 35,000 - 40,000 feet high in the tropics). Vertical wind shear is the magnitude of wind change with height. High vertical wind shear can disrupt a tropical cyclone trying to form by literally tearing it apart. High wind shear also can weaken or destroy a healthy tropical cyclone by interfering with the organization of deep convection around the cyclone center. Typically, 20 knots (23 mph or 10 m/s) or less difference in wind speed between the surface and upper atmosphere is considered favorable for hurricanes. In June and July of 2005, wind shear values were 20 - 40% below normal for the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, the primary genesis locations for the seven tropical cyclones that formed. Wind shear values this low are highly favorable for tropical cyclone formation (see plots below).



Figure 1. Average amount of vertical wind shear (in black) and observed wind shear (in blue) for 2005 for the western Caribbean. Credit: Colorado State University (NOAA/CIRA)



Figure 2. Average amount of vertical wind shear (in black) and observed wind shear (in blue) for 2005 for the eastern Caribbean. Credit: Colorado State University (NOAA/CIRA)

Sea Surface Temperatures
Hurricanes need ocean waters of at least 26.5C (80 F) through a depth of about 50 meters to form or maintain their strength. The warmer the water, the better, since a hurricane is a huge heat engine. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are at the highest levels ever observed in the Atlantic, for the 50 years we have records. As of July 31, typical tropical Atlantic SSTs were about 2F (1.1C) above normal.



Figure 3. The Sea Surface Temperature departure from normal (in degrees C) for July 31, 2005. A large area of above normal SSTs (yellows and light greens) covers virtually the entire North Atlantic Ocean. The cold wake of Hurricane Emily is still apparent between the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Texas. Credit: U.S. Navy.

Moist Air
Hurricanes need moist air in the mid-troposphere (5 km or 3 mi altitude). Dry air interferes with the development of the large thunderstorm complexes needed to get a tropical storm going. Until the last week of July, the air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea has been very moist. Since then, several large dust storms have moved off of the coast of Africa, accompanied by copious amounts of dry air that has interfered with tropical storm formation. TOMS aerosol data shows a large area of dust covering the entire tropical eastern Atlantic today.

Is Global Warming to Blame?
How much, if any, of this year's activity is due to global warming? That's a difficult question to answer. The research published so far shows that global warming cannot be linked to an increase in the number of hurricanes. So, this season's exceptional number of storms is probably unrelated to global warming. However, there is considerable debate whether or not sea surface temperatures and hurricane intensity have been affected by global warming. It is possible that the remarkable intensity of the hurricanes seen so far this season can be partially blamed on global warming. However, much more research needs to be done on this subject before we can link global warming with hurricane intensity. I plan to write a detailed article on the subject later this season, after I've had time to read the new research linking hurricane intensity to global warming, due to be published in Nature magazine on Sunday, August 7.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TD 9 will be no problem to anyone except the fish..you heard it first from stormtop..the high will block anything that tries to come to the us and this storm when its named irene will miss the islands..no one has to worry except bermuda may get brushed by irene with gale force winds...so everyone who thinks the storm is going to be and east coast or caribbean storm i hate to bust your bubble it will only bother the fish...so not lets get to excited about this one its going out to sea.......
But do not agree I knwo that watching reports on the storms they almost always show that the storm move in that directions that is what Climatology has show in the history but after last year anything is possible us in FLorida learned that first hand.
After my sister lost her home to Jeanne on the east coast last year when they said that it was no bother There is always a doubt here
now I am scared. ST says fish, that means fl to me. Gotta go and get some plywood.
I have mine and plenty of gas for the generator
yes raysfan they do have a tendency to forecast a more northward movement especially out here. But the reasoning on a more northerly course is sound. Aledgedly the weakness between two high centers left by harvey will allow a more northerly path. If the storm goes too far north, even if the weakness fills in, the storm will have a hard time staying south and hitting the US. Ofcourse this might not happen and the weakness simply might not be that weak so to speak and the storm heads west, the key is how far north does the weakness from Harvey allow this storm to go. The bottom line is that as in so many other things only time will tell.
BUt to be honest with you Harvey was really not that impressive to me I really never thought of him as being a true tropical storm. But lets hope that stormtop is right and misses everybody.
there is nada with this storm but a beautiful site when it develops fully..i predicted in my revised forecast because of all the dust and microrganisms drying the moisure out the air keeping the convection to a mimnimum that only 2 storms would form off the african coast in the whole month of august..in september the dust will cease and more activity at that time is expected to develop..but remember and increase in shear because the ittz will get more active it will be hard for these storms to travel from africa and get to the caribbean sea...most will be torn apart by the increasing amount os shear in the caribbean coming from the s american coast...all in all it looks good for the great usa in the month of august ..i wouldnt lose any sleep over irene..she is going out to sea...this is and easy storm to forecast...harvey is leading the way...
Stormtop being new to this. May I ask were it is that you are at?
since you did pick on me for being a Devil Rays fan.
hello
guess no one is here
im in the big easy ray........Gods country lol...
Raysfan, Harvey is close to 100% tropical now.

With regard to Stormtop's prediction, I guess that means US east coast residents should run for their lives :P
because if you di not live through 4 storms in one year and one was suppose to hit you directly and decided to get people who were not ready ( And I think I speak kfor everyone in FLorida) Until they say there is an all clear I don't believe it. The high was suppose to protect but it just was not there.
not trying to sound like I am being a smart *** you truly don't know the feeeling of last years. I am a mother of 3 boys 1 College 1-High School and 1 elemntery that was only 7 last year they scare you and them all to death
WE had one of the Local Forecasters go to the Bahamas last year becuase Jeanne was suppose to go away and had to leave his wife and in laws because they were wrong I will wait till Wedns. to see what they are saying
anyone who knows anything about hurricanes should be very at ease with this situation.. abig high thats going to build westward protecting the great usa and even if the storm becomes a cat 5 whis i doubt there is no way no chance this storm will come anywhere close to the usa...this storm cant move westward for to much longer it will turn nw in the next 24 hours and go about 700 miles north of the islands.....the only one that has a slim shot of getting gale force winds from this is bermuda before it starts to bother the shipping lanes and fish...the bottom line is the storm is not coming anywhere close to here so you people that are worried along the east coast let me put your mind at ease you dont have nothing to worry about...this pattern will only get stronger after 96 hours and will protect anything from hitting the usa...this will not change this storm is destined for the fish and i do predict it will reach category 3 in 72 hours...you heard this from someone who is very happy about the pattern that is setting up and we can all thank harvey for this...THANK YOU HARVEY I HOPE YOU CATCH A SHARK..
Hawk what is your thoughts (not Prediction) on this storm if you are still there
TD9 LOOKS LIKE ITS NOT FEELIN TO WELL NOW.
hawk agrees with me if he knows anything about hurricanes..this is not jeanne and the same situation that jeanne had does not exist here..you people are worrying for nothing ..wait for the next storm that comes off the coast of africa and we will see if conditions have changed any...irene will be moving at a very good clip in the next 72 hours..i think close to 20 mph towards the nnw before it makes the turn to the ne and says hasta la vista to the great usa...i am going to sleep and not really worried for at least another 10 days when i think the gulf willl get active...so dont worry once again about irene...she is a goner as for as we are concerned...good night and pleasnt dreams...
1022. mobal
Raysfan, I too have 3. 1 college (21), 1 HS (17), 1 EL (9). it is them I am concerned for.
stormtop ur wrong 99.99% of the time
1024. mobal
more like 99.9999999 +
sleep well stormcloud.. .sorry stormtop?
i dont know how you can say that..i got cindy right on the nose..i got dennis within 25 miles where it went inland and i got franklin right...the ones i got wrong were gert and emily....so how can you say im 100% wrong lol....i have a record of 3-2 this year for predictions..in my book that 66 and 2/3 correct in my book...i cant believe you sound like you want the storm to hit you...well this one is going to sea..move to bermuda and you might just get some gale force winds....i hope i cleared that up mobal whoever you are..learn how to do math...you sound like jed..
Raysfan, I agree with a few others here like Alec, Turtle, and Tx. This system will move west to west-northwest for a few days and slowly strenghten. In three or four days either Irene will slip northward into a weakness left behind by Harvey, or the mid-Atlantic high pressure will be quicker to rebuild and Irene will keep going west to west-northwest. Nobody knows what the weather pattern will be along the US east coast after that, so really anything can happen. So, basically, Irene could do anything from hit Miami to just annoy a few fish far out in the central Atlantic.
if you check the blogs, stormtop was wrong on every storm so far
1029. Alec
hi everyone!!! whats new???
1030. 147257
stormtop i dont agree with you i am tracking storms for 2 years my good mark is 1/5 so worse then you but i say that TD 9 soon TS Irene will track west then after passing the SSS islands it will hit Florida between Miami en Orlando
rich you are full of garbage babe...you need to learn how to read and write the english language..you are a real idiot to make a statement like that are you just cant comprehend the english language...get it together rich and poop and learn the facts before you shoot your trap off..
1032. Alec
come on guys. be nice :)
1033. mobal
STORM, I may have been harsh, I started looking at this blog after during Emily. I have interest in S texas. I will watch.

I live in Mobile, I had damage, not bad, during Ivan. (7 trees, shingles, out building etc.). 8 days w/out electricity. I have been in Mobile since 82. Thank god I was not there in 79.

I have seen my share. I want NO MORE.

Anyone who wants a hurricane, and I do know some, is not right in my opinion.

This is as close as I get to an apoligy.

1034. Alec
i feel ignored ):
GFDL already shifting further south. I wonder if this is the start of a trend that models will take? See link.

Link
Ha. Hello, Alec.
1037. Alec
hi Hurricanewatcher. At least you noticed. I see the models take this a little farther south. But with this system being pretty weak there is not much confidence in them just yet.
1038. cjnew
well i dont feel like the people who pick up snakes are "right" :p
1039. Alec
cj!!! welcome back!!! :)
1040. cjnew
hi..lol!!!! :)
1041. Alec
where have you been? what do you think of this TD#9
right now TD9..seems to be having a few problems aquiring a name,may not even develop,now all these predictions will be wasted..oh man..this is too funny.Should be quite interesting to maybe know where the ghost will go huh...maybe the remanants can go north and west and all be right..then again TD9 maybe just trying to find it's self and will give us an actual center of circulation we can define..But untill it becomes a storm why bother..If you dont have a defined center all Idea's can BE way off..
lol@147257.......the only comment i have for you is i have 30 years under my belt tracking hurricanes and been in at least 25 oif them in my lifetime...your experience is very limited but if what you say is trus then God has performed a miracle here because i cant see this weather pattern changing for the next 10 days...this high will protect the whole usa..the only people who dont believe that are people who want these storms to hit there area..dont you think the east coast has had enough man...you need to learn more of what puts a hurricane together and the atmospheric conditions that guide a hurricane along ..for you to come out with a dumb statement like that proves to me you know nothing about the pattrens that are guiding this storm...you need to get a little more then 2 years experience pal before you start making crazy predictions..you know lots odf people read these posts and you should keep this kind of talk to your self..the nhc has not said anything about this storm hitting the east coast..enough said pal...
1044. 147257
9:45 pm storm still moving west

@mobal i agree with you and you have to know if ivan was over my place Curacao a island i prolly wouldnt write here because everything still would be damaged for everyone else that not been in a hurricane be happy
1045. Alec
cj, hurricaneking wont be back till next friday cause he's taking a trip.
The new advisory is out on TD 9. Look at WxUnderground Tropical site. TD 9 seems to be struggling a bit and confidence in the track is still highly uncertain.
1047. mobal
For what its worth, I do not think this will get in the Gulf. I think it will go NNW in 4-5 days out.
1048. Alec
stormtop, try being a little nicer to these guys. They're entitled to their opinions too.
1049. cjnew
where is he going......I dont really have an opinion...lie! i am just waiting to see how soon it starts to turn...thats all im looking for now...and anything behind it
1050. 147257
@Stormtop that was a lot to read good i know i'm a n00b but we will see i'm not shouting too much stupid things ;) and i dont want this shit over my home and second i dont live in america i'm only telling what i think and second youre stormtop is pulling it beneath so thats why i think it will hit florida
1051. Alec
Another thing stormtop, dont tell people they need at least a few yrs experience before they can get a handle on things. There are pretty smart younger guys on here too.
1052. cjnew
i agree with Alec.. :)
1053. Alec
cj you do what you're best at: stay comical!
1054. mobal
Hi OUTROCKET, dont they all do that during the cooling nights?
alec i guess it could go to the moon....maybe it might hit the shuttle and send it to mars...
For sale:titanium clad cyber blog armor,works for all blog insults..only 29.99 hurry while supplys last.
1057. cjnew
alec...will do...if irene does form....a large.lol
1058. Alec
LOL @stormtop
1059. mobal
Dang storm, that would save us tax payers alot of $$
1060. Alec
stormtop, say another joke. That was funny. Trying to outperform cj??lol
1061. cjnew
yeah stormtop....and outrocket..whats up
1062. 147257
who is thinking that it will be a TS at 5 pm?
mobal...I started that blog you requested...waiting on imput ,so far not alot..but we will see.
Don't look now, but could the next storm be right on TD#9's heels? Of course, that wave just came off Africa and the waves are normally pretty strong right after they come off the coast. Still, if I'm not mistaken, models develop the one behind TD9 into a cyclone in a few days. Could be quite an active next 2-3 weeks in the tropics (maybe more).

1065. Alec
that was really funny outrocket.LOL
1066. cjnew
hurricanewatcher...do you want us to look? ...oops i did! yes the long range Gfs brings a storm behind "irene" and leads it into the gulf of mexico.....really early though, but i love to speculate
1067. 147257
that sux i dont like to be on vacaction when a hurricane goes over my house
1068. Alec
i suppose some people on here have their face down asleep on the Z key.
1069. 147257
can someone tell me the where the storm is located mine details are from 5 pm 12.7 north and 34.5 west need to know the new
1070. Alec
nicolai, look on the wunderground tropical homepage. its updated now.
1071. cjnew
well i need to get ready for sleep...second day of school..yay. but you got to love the weekends
1072. Alec
sorry you have to go cj ): see ya later!!! :)
1073. cjnew
me too! nobody get to excited about the action though....after all *TIS THE SEASON*....later guys
Stormtop,

What happened with the GOM firing up a few days ago? Were you wrong about that also?
1075. K8e1
stormtop....its funny but every storm you see that isnt headed your way you say is either fish food or you say its coming straight for your area when it is not.....stormtop this is an east coast storm YOU have nothing to worry about nada not from this storm or from ANY storms in the foreseeable future
I was going to take down my plywood this weekend but if Stormtop is saying Irene? will not get into the GOM I think I will leave them up. I still love to hear your outrageous predictions even with your 30 years of experience.
Remember Stormtop when you read the water vapor it is not the same as reading tea leaves.
Ok..I see we are claiming storms now...Ok all the east coasters seem to think it's theirs,floridians are almost running in fear thinking it belongs to them..The caribbean thinks Oh nooo its ours..The gulf coast seems to want to shve it off on anyone that wants it..OK..one group left"the Fish"..they seem to think no matter where it goes it's their's since they are all areas...SO I go with the fish,no matter where it goes the fish get it along the way..
1079. Alec
i need a joke.
1080. 147257
k8e1 what do you understand under a eastcoast storm
1081. mobal
outrocket, I just posted. Lets get all the new people in there. I moved here in 82 and still like other peoples ideas. I think we can do good.
1082. 147257
l0l @outrocket i dont want it :P

at 10:15 storm still tracking west
Hey, this isn't really weather, but it's observable phenomenon, is that close enough? Those of you that live between New Orleans and Pensacola, and perhaps beyond that, the Discovery and International Space Station will be passing over you at about 5:50 a.m. CDT on the morning of Aug. 6th. Further details at:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/04aug_sightings.htm?list185832
mobal..it was a good idea you had to start it,I know I learn new things everytime we have one ..even though I have been through many there are still lots of things to learn..So hopefully some Andrew,Hugo and other storm survivors will post their Ideas..then I will take blog and try to create a list for both those who stay and those who leave..there is always something to learn.
1085. 147257
storm is tracking a bit southwest the last half hour
Stormtop......most of us are here because of an interest in tropical cyclones. Not for a fight. I know I'm new here but I must say that when you say you have 30 years experience tracking hurricanes under your belt, it seems to this newbie that that may be the only thing under your belt.
1087. mobal
outrocket, I posted on your new post.

Also, like the fish, we will deal with it.
1088. Alec
i agree Cosmic
1089. 147257
i'm only 16 years old and i'm very interested in hurricanes i'm tracking it for 2 years now i look to every information possible and soon i going to a little meteorology in Curacao :)
1090. 147257
what i want to see i hope i have once that much experience you have ;)
1091. Alec
im gonna go now..........see yall later!.....ALec......OUT!!!
1092. mobal
147257, Bueno para usted. Buena suerte!
1093. 147257
11:15 storm is tracking wsw also my last post for today

out !

see you guys tommorow
1094. 147257
mobal that means?
I gotta say, I felt really cozy when Dennis was on a DIRECT track for us (Cayman Islands); I figured, well, they always end up someplace different than the tracking so WE're SAFE! Sort of like the old racecar maxim (NASCAR fans? -- if you don't know where to drive in a wreck, head for the spinning car, it will be gone by the time you're there!
After reading some of the recent comments on this blog, I am reminded of a quote from the Adam Sandler classic, Billy Madison: Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
good one Canealum
1098. 147257
great its not bad to give our prediction and if you dont like it go away Canealum03
I thought it was funny. Take it easy everyone
1100. 147257
l0l i dont think its bad and i agree we are talking to much about irene including me but i like to hear other predictions and i want to look if mine is right :)
The quote wasn't meant to offend anyone. Just thought I'd try to bring some comic levity to the blog.
1102. Alec
Goodmorning guys!!! im back but i suppose everyone is asleep so ill go again................OUT!!!
Nicolai you had a close call with Ivan, no? We did too and our main island got hit hard. I've been watching out for the next "I" storm also. Superstitious I guess, but can't help it. :)
Alec ya hardly give anyone a chance to reply with the speed of this poor ol' blog
1105. Alec
hi crab. i've seen some pretty crabby talk on here lately.lol
haha how ya doing? Great pic on your blog by the way
1107. 147257
Ivan didnt hit Curacao hard but we where in the ban of Ivan and were hapy that it didnt hit us
1108. Alec
im up really late waiting for a call. i might not be able to go home tomorrow.
As for a prediction on the yet to be named TD, I think the weakness Harvey creates in the high will nudge the storm to the north but won't be strong enough to fully kick it out to sea. The storm will likely be north of the islands. After that I think it will turn more towards the west to wnw. Not knowing what troughs are expected to sweep of the US coast, I'll leave my prediction there. And as Dennis Miller says "That's just my opinion, I could be wrong."
1110. Alec
by the way thanks crab. i think that picture is soooooo cool with the sun lighting up the cloud like that.
yes Nicolai..... it looked to us that you were nudged by Ivan. We got a bit more than a nudge, and Grand Cayman got a whuppin'.
1112. 147257
at 11:45 pm TD 9 still tracking wsw
I've gotta figure out how to post pics. I've got a great one of mammoth waves taken from our house as the influence of Dennis passed by.

Alec I would guess that awesome (not a word I use often) picture was taken in the early morning, yes?
1114. Alec
if you look at the track archive for Ivan you can see it going straight for Jamaica then suddenly it hooks left missing it. Its like it "intentionally" wanted to miss it.
1115. 147257
I know it looked that way but we almost hit by Hurricane Ivan and i was very afraid for it Curacao never got hit by a full hit by a hurricane in the last 130 years and the prediction was every hundred years a hurricane will hit curacao fully and this year the carribean is warm so i'm a bit scared for it
The 0z GFS is partly out and there are two noticeable features. First, it keeps TD8 very weak for several days. Second, the 0z run continues the trend toward a stronger subtropical ridge all the way across the Atlantic, effectively blocking TD8 from turning north.
1117. Alec
in the evening. you can see the angle of the lighted clouds that the sun was setting.
1118. 147257
i know i told that earlier today
yeah! It was weird wasn't it, the way Ivan took that turn! It did the same thing as it approached Grand Cayman but it caused lots of damage. We were in a cave by that time and not wanting to come out until it was GONE.
1120. 147257
but do you guys agree TD 9 is shifting a bit southwart

look on this update

http://vortex.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?anim=LOOP&type=IR&large=1&site=ATL®ion=ATLE
1121. 147257
maybe ivan got respect for islands :-) the most beatifull thing from ivan was his reformation in the gulf of mexico :P everyone thought ivan was gone and 2 days later it was back
1122. Alec
well dennis and emily helped to "cool" off the Caribbean somewhat by upwelling. Instead of it being near 90 degrees its more like 83-86 degrees down there. i see that as a plus.
Hawkeye, you meant TD9 right? That's what I was wondering too. I'm just getting comfy with all the maps and trying to get a handle on correllating the data. It looked to me like a good chance for TD9 to cross the islands lower than the current forcast. Your thoughts
1124. 147257
yes but do you agree that td 9 is taking now a wsw path?

http://vortex.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?anim=LOOP&type=IR&large=1&site=ATL®ion=ATLE
147257, you can't tell anything from that long distance satellite loop.

The NHC floater satellite is very good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
Didn't realize it was that cool Alec... seems warmer around Jamaica and here... I see what you mean now. Doesn't hit really warm water unless it stays on a w or wnw track.
1127. Alec
what's really scary is that the Gulf is continuing to get more like a hot tub with temps nearing 90 degrees. If no storm gets there soon the waters will continue getting so much heat content that if one got there in the future there could be a real disaster. Hot water is like high octane fuel for these things.
1128. Alec
the thing is as dennis went just south of Cuba, monsterous waves were upwelling water from beneath cooling it somewhat. im not saying that means no tropical trouble but at least if one came there it would be working with 83-86 degree water instead of 90 degree water.
1129. 147257
i agree with alec

now i really going to sleep cya guys tommorow
I'm still having more than a little bit of difficulty with deciphering the variables that actually steer the storms. Here I thought I had a potpourri of maps. Just need more experience sifting through them.
1131. Alec
see ya later nicolai!!! come back sometime.
1132. 147257
btw on this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

if you watch it you can see it go south
see you later Nicolai.... I see what you mean Alec. Would it be partially accurate to say it might be better to have a series of smaller storms to diffuse some of the surface temperatures? Rather than let it build. Good information thank you, I'm learning. sllllowwly
1134. Alec
crab, here's a brief explanation: hurricanes take the path of least resistance. Hurricanes have low pressure and low pressure doesnt go into high pressure. So they move around the periphery of highs. Now the easterly trade winds help steer these things in a general w direction across the atlantic. Troughs moving eastward cause shear and winds in the upper levels to steer hurricanes back to the right and sometimes out to sea. Many more facts about hurricanes.........that was just a brief explanation.
For example, I see a marked lack of shear -- compared to say, a month ago or even two weeks ago -- around and ahead of TD9, but that seems to go toward intensification. What variables is the NHC and others using to predict it going northward?
I doubt TD9 is actually moving south. The NHC noted the center is very broad and elongated with disorganized convection. Any burst of convection could attempt to tighten up the core and make it appear the system is wobbling south or north.
Thanks Alec. That helps a lot. Appreciate your insights.
1138. Alec
your right crab, more storms help cut the sea surface temps down. Thats the positive about dennis and emily(even though they were really bad, not trying to downplay their severity). if it werent for them then the waters would be near 90 all around for the hurricanes to thrive off of. if that was the case id be really scared about an Ivan going over 90 degree waters.
Yours too Hawkeye.
*Ivan )
1141. Alec
a northward turn would happen for one, if a weakness in the ridge happened because a hole would be created and the hurricane would chose to follow the path of least resistance between the weakness. A trough would also cause these things to turn more northward and out to sea.
In the infrared sat. image, it seems to be looking more closed around the circulation center. Soon to be TS?
1143. Alec
Hey yall im getting sleepy and better hit the pillow. If you have any more questions feel free to email them on my blog or post one and ill get back as soon as i can. nite guys.................Alec.......OUT!!!
See you later Alec! nite!
This is funny... the 0z GFS eventually turns Irene due west across Cuba and across the Yucatan peninsula into the southern Gulf. Again, the GFS beyond several days(usually not even that long) can get pretty wild and should not be looked at seriously.
1146. 147257
TD 9 Moving north west 5:45 moving north west
1147. 147257
correnction west north west
1148. 147257
storm maked a big movement to north from 11 pm 13.0 N to 5 pm 14.4 N
1149. 147257
NHC doesnt seem to be positive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 050830
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE
36.1 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES...1260 KM... WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 36.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART



theyre also saying that the hurricane could follow a western track over 36 hours again

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/discussion/MIATCDAT4
1150. Alec
HI. Good morning all! It's another one of those days again. Ill wait till someone talks. :)
Safe trip to (south-east of) Tampa...
1152. 147257
l0l i talk alec i'm waiting for the 8 am update
1153. Alec
Miss home. That depression is small with a suspicious wave that just came off of Africa.
1154. Alec
hey there niciolai, cool name!
1155. 147257
i saw that too looks strong but if Irene develops himself the other wave cant develop himself good
let's remember STORMTOPS last two predictions.....this should technically be TD 11 for him. Last week he/she was certain that a system was forming of the coast of LA in the Gulf......then what about that HUGE storm that was suppose to develop in the Bay of Campeche....my new policy to keep myself sane.....if I see a STORMTOP entry now, I'm just skipping over it. There is to much intelligence in this blog to have it destroyed by an irresponsible 'guesser'.

I'm not sure what this storm will do, but I'm just watching it for now. Which is what all of us are here to do...not argue, or throw out forecasts and tell people to ignore a storm because of ONE opinion. That's just plain irresponsible STORMTOP!!! That's why we have the NHC, let them advise the public on what to do and what to worry about!
1157. 147257
thxn alec :)
1158. 147257
evolution stormtop can make good predictions but everyone is mistaken ;)
1159. 147257
theyre still optimist about harvey

Harvey may near hurricane strength over the next 12-24 hours as it moves through the central Atlantic. Harvey will probably slow down as an upper trough that has been steering it to the east-northeast, lifts northeast and away from the tropical storm, allowing high pressure to build north of Harvey. Another upper trough will move into the western Atlantic later in the weekend and would most likely cause Harvey to increase its forward speed into the central Atlantic. Eventually, its path will take it over cooler waters and into a more hostile environment, resulting in weakening or a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

source accuweather.com
1160. Alec
Accurate predictions speak for themselves.
147257, good predictions or not....it's just plain irresponsible to tell the public not to worry or even watch a storm this far out. especially when the NHC is disagreeing.

I'm not the best forecaster in the world.....but I don't post irresponsible statements because it's what I think.

Anyway, I'm done discussing STORMTOP.....I'm sticking to my new 'skip-over' rule.
1162. Alec
evolution, 147257's name is Nicolai.
1163. 147257
i agree with that even if they tell me that a storm is passing my island by with 300 miles north i always will watch it you never know what those hurricanes do i'm recalling hurricane lenny
1164. Alec
lenny was bad if i recall right. Was lenny a major hurricane or am i mistaken?
1165. 147257
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199912.asp

here and late formed
1166. Alec
its been raining in Tallahassee for like 3 days in a row. looks like we're going to get it hard again today.
1167. 147257
damn pretty worse and it al getting worse with that global warming
1168. Alec
that's the easiest thing to do these days regarding diagnosing weather problems: global warming.
1169. 147257
yes :P maybe its natural that its happen :) but on the otherside every year records are broken raining records and all that kind
1170. 147257
we can't deny that we do something ofcourse its easy when its cold screaming that this is due global warming but i still think we have to be carefull
1171. Alec
we've been breaking about every conceivable record for the tropics every other week for the last 2 months it seems.lol.
1172. Alec
i guess there's no immediate concern for the 8am advisory since TD#9 is way out in the middle of no where bothering the sea only.
1173. 147257
yeah i wonder if we going to break the major hurricanes record and the record of 21 storms
1174. 147257
it looks like the storm is weakining

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
1175. 147257
the strom is going way to north look to this

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/
1176. Alec
If that depression goes more north than west it'll run over cooler waters and slow it's strengthening.
1177. 147257
maybe thats good but on the other hand the water in the carribean keep warming up again
1178. Alec
Well according to our local forecast we might as well import lifeboats if its going to rain hard for the rest of the week like im now hearing from the local meteorologists.lol
1179. 147257
l0l give me a site with youre weather update about youre place ;)
1180. Alec
yep i agree nicolai. Thank goodness its warming between temps of 83-87 degrees and not warming from 90 degrees.
Good Morning guys and girls!
1182. 147257
yeah but i rather have a hurricane that cools down the temperature then a very big hurricane
1183. Alec
http://wctv6.com/weather -thats the website with our soggy forecast.
1184. 147257
good morning MDweather
1185. Alec
Good morning MD! you didnt miss much yet.
Well, guys, all it takes is one look at this morning's visible loop to see that TD9 is finished. I would not be surprised if it even becomes Irene now. Satellite shows the surface low completely exposed and shooting northwestward, already at almost 17 degrees north latitude. It would be a miracle if it was able to recover and make it even halfway across the Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
1187. Alec
i dont believe any gals are chatting at the moment though.lol
1188. 147257
site gives this warning

Currently, a weak upper-level low is situated over southern Mississippi-southern Alabama. Every once in a while, underneath such systems, a low-level circulation can form. It is an area to watch over the next few days.
boy it sure is hot in MD the past few days yesterday it was 97.Its going to be another hot one today.how is TD9 looking this morning guys.
Of course in the last post I meant I wouldn't be surprised if TD9 NEVER becomes Irene.
nicolai, thanks for the link. i haven't seen that one yet. your second Link , it seems to show a wnw track is forecast. which it will be critical timing at that point when and if that ridge builds back in and cuts off the northerly route.
1192. 147257
Hawkeyewx some meteorologist suggest that te storm will track 36 wnw and then it will track west again
1193. Alec
which site nicolai? i see its spinning over land.
1194. 147257
but i disagree this will be a TS maybe not for long if it keeps this track but i'm almost sure it will track west in less then 36 hours
1195. Alec
some models are saying the weakness in the ridge may fill in the next few days making it move more westward.
1196. 147257
this site is suggesting it http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?a=a&site=ATL®ion=HATL&type=ir&anim=LOOP&large=1
i agree hawk, things don't look very impressive at all. looks to have taken a jump north on the last couple frames
Link
1198. 147257
i read that somewhere to but i'm still sure this will be a TS at 5 PM
1199. 147257
i cant disagree with you guys about that it jumped to north
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/maps-satellite.asp?anim=loop&type=wv&large=0®ion=HATL

check out this WV Loop, the WV makes it look organized and moveing almost due west....strange....also notice the other wave coming off the coast behind it.
it looks a burst of convection is trying to form around the center
How could this thing be a tropical storm at 5pm when the surface center is totally exposed and shooting norwestward over marginally warm water at best?
1203. 147257
l0l wonders happen all the time ;)
MD, I don't know what you are looking at, but it is not TD9. There is absolutely no convection anywhere close to the center.
1205. Alec
well if the closed surface circulation acquires sustain winds of at least 40mph it will be classified a TS regardless of it's center being exposed.
1206. 147257
they meteorologist got problems with discovering the eye
Alec, with a system that far out in the middle of nowhere with no recon available there is little chance the NHC would upgrade a system to TS if there was no convection very near or over the center.
1208. 147257
on my last detailed map the storm is disseapring
1209. Alec
the depression may be feeble looking but it's darn trying hard to hold itself together
Link

look at the dry air moving in behind harvey....am i looking at that right?
1211. Alec
Hawk, i was giving nicolai a general definition of a TS. i wasnt refering specifically to that one in the E atlantic. I know they couldn't get a recon out there unless it was a pontoon boat.lol
1212. 147257
like is said irene is a b*tch :) dont die until the last moment
It sure is a change from the beautiful, strong storms of Dennis and Emily to these sheared off swirling clouds of Franklin, Harvey, and TD9
1214. K8e1
hawkeye, jedkins, nhc2005, stormtop hmmmmm
Hello guys.....man ol man did it rock and roll here in the beautiful city of Winter Garden Florida, just west of Orlando......last night we had 1 inch hail and wind gust up to at least 60 mph....constant lightning.....it was like something you would see on tv out in the midwest.....im mad because I couldnt get to it in time.....unbelievable
1216. 147257
g2g i think when i'm back the storm is reformated and becomes stronger again
hello again
1218. 147257
i saw the pictures weatherboyfsu of the storm above Florida
1219. Alec
it was really bad in winter haven, Polk County last evening. incredible lightning, damaging winds, hail, heavy rain.
"hawkeye, jedkins, nhc2005, stormtop hmmmmm"

What the heck does that mean?
Guys....Im telling you last im so frustrated....it went right over my office....I left at 6:30Pm and it hit at 7:05pm....I went to eat and there wasnt anything within miles, I always look out...My sister calls me and says it hailing like shes never seen before.....I run outside and I can see some small rotation along huge shelf cloud...I had instant goose pimples.....I didnt have my camcorder...and by the time I got there it was about done......I was ticked off......As soon as I saw it, I knew it was special....
1222. Alec
You guys probably will find this hard to believe: Clearwater Beach has a water temp of 94 degrees!!!!!!!!
We have helicopters flying over head now assessing the damage and probably determining whether it was an official tornado........I have friends who saw it with their own eyes.....we have tree limbs down all over the place.....It sure sounds like it to me ......1 INCH HAIL.....WIND GUSTS OVER 60MPH.....Continuous lightning.....these are all typical when a tornado is near.......
I'm in Winter Park and I saw all the warnings and saw the storm headed directly for me on radar, but apparently it must have just sideskirted us because we didn't get anything outside of some lightning. I heard around Kissimmee they had something like 13k lightning strikes in 3 hours.
1225. Alec
i heard they got roughly 6500 lightning strikes during that episode.
1226. Alec
a way to determine whether its a tornado or straight line winds: if the damage is done in one general direction it probably was straight line winds. If the damage is erratic and all over the place with no real pattern then its likely it was a tornado.
well the models are definitely changing
latest model tracks

many had it going west but they're changing to curve it more nne...lets hope it stays away from the US.
TD9 looks very weak at the moment. I wonder if it can even hold on to the little convection it has.. . .

And as for the models, a lot of them do have it moving further west. Should be interesting. I still think it is not going to strike the US though. It may get closer than I originally thought, but it still wont make it.

Harvey is going along the same path as TD9 now. . losing its convection over its center of circulation. It will be dieing soon.
Another way to determine. . and only the REAL true way to determine if it was a tornado. .is whether or not trees are twisted. If the trees are not twisted than there wasnt a tornado. Of course, if there arent any trees, i am sure there are other ways of figuring it out.
wow cant believe what I read..I hope someone is not stereotyping hawk with those mentioned..hawk has many years expierence and is a voice of reason here...to catagorize him with those others shows no knowledge at all of meteorology...unreal..
ALL of the models are having a VERY tough time keeping TD9 a system. EVEN the FSU! This storm may just die out in the next few days. It looks very weak right now.

Here is going to be the storm on TD9:

Will it blossom today? Will we see an increase in convection? If we do, we will see a storm. If we dont, I expect this system to be done by the end of the weekend. I, at one point, thought this storm had a real chance of becoming a major hurricane (cat 3), but now I doubt it will get above hurricane status if it does get its act together.

Start looking to the east, another large wave coming off the coast with many models forecasting a low pressure developing. We should also keep an eye on that.
1234. Alec
hi guys. What ya talking about outrocket??
Thanks for the support, Outrocket. I was boggled how someone could think I should be lumped together with Stormtop.
Stormtop is in a class of his own.
1237. Alec
hawk, you're a great forecaster, dont let that get to you. :)
well the latest GFS run, that the NHC has been relying on to say the storm will track west has changed quite a bit and has the storm steering away from the US where as before it had it traveling more west...


weather underground

or this

Cyclone phase
oh and Good Morning guys...Hope the weather is smiling on you wherever you are. I know central Fl. had it tough last night...hope all is ok..;-)
1240. Jedkins
Ya that was one wicked thunderstorm wind gust up to 80 mph and 5 inch per hour rain rates up to 5 inches fell in polk county.
Come on guys...Im beginning to believe that we have a bunch of kids on here...........everyone is making predictions and giving analysis....there is sure alot of people trying to vindicate themselves on here......who cares....people read this stuff to learn from us.....by accusing people of this or that is not right.....you guys are making us look like children arguing
1242. Jedkins
IA wasn't there but I was watching my local news channel thats what tey were showing a 24 news channel that ha weather every nine minutes,very good technology in the local news stations here because of competition its the best in th USA besides NOAA,best in the world too because the US has the most adcanced weather technological advancement,the main reson its so big here is the combination 0f our 5 month storm season and the most frequently struck by hurricanes than any other state.
1243. Jedkins
I know thats rediculis.....
1244. Jedkins
Price for being in paradice, as they always say lol,but for me it's not that much of a price except for when severe devestating hurricanes hit but I like all the storm activity that accurs here in florida and I love the warm tropical climate,the beaches and just the whole tropical atmosphere,there are lots of things to do here to.
Here are the most recent model runs. . looks like we have a storm going north.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
1246. Jedkins
Now on to the tropics....The forecast track has changed and I am watching this one very closely could be another francis though if it holds together and its broad circulation is similar to francis.
punk, that looks reasonable to me. Sure is strange how no models or people suggested the possibility of anything like this major northward movement so soon. It looked certain to move west to west-northwest for at least a few days before possibly turning north into a weakness.
1248. Jedkins
Yes well these models I dont tust very well at the mment they are undecided and tend to curve atlantic storms north so understand that the models for now, at least in my oppinion aren't very reliable at the moment.I am not against models like I have said before but at times I trust them more and sometimes less.
yea hawk,reminds me of Dennis when just before landfall the SW shear took him north of projected path and went inland almost 60 miles east of forecast track..that still boggles me and just goes to show..even the smallest influence may change things..
1250. Jedkins
Yes but there may be NO weakness as it gets there,you have to understand that they tend to curve storms north and out to sea with this situation I am not saying i wont happen but its not as likely I belive as a more west - northwest track,this storm to do so will have to start moving northwest very soon or else that possibility will quickly lessen.
1251. Jedkins
A very good point so dont try to forecast a storm to much lol.
1252. Denials
New Advisory out...not expected to strengthen today or tomrorow.
1253. Denials
Talk about the track shifting! From the new discussion:

"how little we know about the genesis of tropical cyclones. Satellite images during the day yesterday showed a distinct disturbance in the deep tropics with all known factors apparently favorable for the system to become a tropical storm. Surprisingly this morning...visible images indicate that the system has become disorganized. Unexpectedly...the low-level circulation moved northwestward toward relatively cooler waters and lost most of the deep convection. However...the system still maintains a large and vigorous envelope with at least 25 knots. It is interesting to note that the last few GFS runs were developing a tropical cyclone from this system and moved it westward through the Atlantic.

However...in the latest 6z GFS run...there is no tropical cyclone development. The GFDL...like the GFS...also changed its tune at 6z and now even shows dissipation in 48 hours.
Given these drastic changes seen in GFS...the official forecast also makes a drastic change in both track and intensity. The system is now kept as a 25-knot tropical depression for a couple of days.

Thereafter...a modest development is anticipated when the cyclone reaches warmer waters...if it survives. The official forecast has been shifted substantially northward from the previous advisory."
jedkins, the models are almost irrelevant at this point because the satellite says everything. TD9 has been moving due northwest all night and is already at 17 degrees. This thing would have to turn back west very soon or it will have no chance to avoid a permanent north movement.
There you go, the NHC said it all in the new discussion. Unquestionably an odd turn of events.
I can relax a little bit more during my trip down to Florida tomorrow... I should be able to get the whole week in at DW. I've prepped my home in NC just in case moving all lawn furniture and possible projectiles etc..(except for boarding up the windows)so if this thing dedcides to try to reorganize and take an Isabel path I'll be somewhat ready...
Theres some activity behind TD9. Wouldnt it be funny if that becomes TD10. I wonder if there was a time in history where there were two tropical systems one behind another?? On a track to the east coast... muhhahaha
1258. Alec
there was a time i think(cant remember the yr but was recently) where there was three systems right behind each other in the eastern atlantic. I cant talk now.............gotta go ...bye......Alec.........OUT!!!
good morning to all of you that are worried about that weak and i mean weak tropical depression....let me assure you my thinking has not changed from last night it will go out to sea if it doesnt fall apart..this thing is barely hanging on..i told you all a while back the dust will be a major factor in these waves coming off the coast of africa this month..it seems why this thing cant intensify is the dust that is wrapped inside is draining all the moisture and convection out of it...dont look for it to become a tropical storm anytime in the future...you all are worried for nothing about this thing...its been centered more to the north which i predicted last night and it could even be centered more n in the next advisory ..the dust and shear are tearing it apaart..i would not at all be surprised if they downgraded it to a tropical wave in the next advisory...i made my prediction you will have only 2 storms in the month of august come from off the coast of africa and that will be in the last 2 weeks of august..you can relax for now and worry when its necessary...dont listen to all these computer models they are one big joke and all they do is scare people...so just sit back and not worry about this shoo shoo because thats exactly what it is..im surprised at rocket and this number guy and not lets forget alec who said this was coming to the us..well guys you are dead wrong and as i say you might have only a tropical wave by the next advisory..alec didnt that site i send you teach you anything...i buy you pencils paper and books and you still get it wrong lol....i want to assure all of you one more time this storm or rain maker will not affect the good old usa....you wont here nothing from me until the next one forms and that will be in about 1.5 weeks...oh i almost forgot jed what and idiot he is to say the thing is going to hit the se coast of fla...jed you been watching to many movies...you have to get your act together people are depending on you ...dont tell them its coming here you are starting to give them a false sense of security...man you need a lesson on hurricanes bad before you come on here and make crazy predictions...alec i dont blame you i think the sun has gotten to your brain and toasted it...
1260. SEFL
Geez
hi guys im back from cutting the grass..i think we might have over hyped this storm just a little bit.
wow..thinks someone need to read what others post before they drop names...best go reread storm...
"you wont here nothing from me until the next one forms and that will be in about 1.5 weeks"

That's the best news I've heard in quite a while.
stormtop needs to go away. i am sick of you

anyway, TD10 is a very strong possiblity. the dust has begun to die down and the wave looks strong. keep an eye on it, but as we all know, its too early to tell on a system that close to the african coast

td9, i think we can sign its death certificate. WAY too far north now. i dont think anyone saw that quick movement. If there is any increase in convection it is going to have to be today by this afternoon. Otherwise forget it.
damn...now Im gonna have to wait till the end of this month for a storm. Doesnt look like this month will be a record setter ?!?!
1266. Jedkins
LOL you are a joke stormtop you dont understand,the likely hood of this this thing hitting florida is unlikely because it is to far away but the it probably wont survive now but you clearly didnt listen to my posts very well I have CLEARLY STATED MANY TIMES THAT A FLORIDA LANDFALL IS A POSSIBLE IDEA BUT IS WAY TO FAR AWAY..IF I WAS WORKING IN THE NHC I WOULDNT EVEN MENTION IT.You just will never get it stormtop...Now 11:00 update sort of destroys that us landfall possibity but one thing I have to say is I forgot about the saharan dust but if this thing would have chance to get strong(which it doesn't anymore) it would mostlikely not curve out to sea.But I did mention also in my posts IF it held together and IF it gets strong then florida might want to watch this one a little more OVERTIME.Understand now?I sure hope so...
1267. Jedkins
No thats what stormtop says the NHC is clearly aware of the dusts affects and didn't make that prediction for no reson...The dust will almost certainly lose its grip they woudn't have made the prediction for so many storms if saharan dust would be strong all month long.
1268. Jedkins
The weaker the storm the farther north understand...
i did punk i mentioned it 3 times in posts last night it was going out with the fish...you also have hyped this thing up and ill tell you the next one will have the same problem until around august 21 when the dust finally has cleared the coast of africa..you cant stand it when im right huh punk....lol you will learn its experience that makes you see whats happeniong in our atmosphere...alec i sent you the info and im surprised at you not seeing this happening to this so called depression...you guys need to stop hyping up all the people when a depression and i mean a weak one forms off the coast of africa...there wont be to much of a cape verde season this year guys i told you that...you guys just wont listen to the master when he speaks...your td 10 will have the same problems if it forms this week punk so dont expect much...sorry for all of you who wanted this thing to intesify. lets not worry people unless we have to punk and rocket alec and numbers..
Actually, Jedkins, the tendency with tropical cyclones is for very weak systems to move more westerly and strong systems to move more northerly.
not to change subject..but why is this sahara dust coming off the cost like it is? Is it so dry over there that the wind just picks it up??
Ok..stormtop...get an education (learn to read)..I do not forecast much here and have never said this storm develops or hits U.S...Please I ask you nicely REREAD before you drop my name again..I wont argue with you...because you are not worth it..but to put words in peoples mouths on this post with all the great minds I see here is wrong man..just wrong..on that ..I'm gone!
is there the distinct possibility that the wave behind td9 has suckeed some of the energy from it? this could explain alot.
wow just got up and this is funny we have 3 exposed systems at once,(I know the central pacific one is dead, but hey lets include it). Must be some kind of record. Actually as exposed as it is with no deep convection i'm surprised TD didn't start coming back west with the trade winds.

For the record storms almost never come back to life when the center gets exposed. There are exceptions though, Andrew was one and a few years back we had two that weeakened to waves and came back.
LSU, the question is what caused the surface circulation to shoot northwestward when there appeared to be a strong high to its north that would keep it moving west to west-northwest for a few days. With the northward movement overnight it is now over cool water which is a likely reason there is no convection anymore.
Stormtop,

I said many times that this system would become a depression, i never said anything more. (All I mentioned above was that i thought it had the chance to get to a cat 3 when it looked so nice a day ago) I said it would move north and not affect ANY of the islands. So guess what, its doing just that. It may not have formed into a named storm, but its doing just as I thought it would.

As for the next wave, i dont know if it will become a depression. Thats a wait and see game. I am just saying many of the models have it forming just like this td9.

Let me tell you something stormtop, who was it that predicted NO STORMS WOULD BE NAMED UNTIL THE 2ND WEEK OF AUGUST? That was you. We have already named one storm this month and its only day 5.
Lsu, I doubt it, there is over a 1000miles between the two systems. The NHC says that when the system turn more NW it went over cooler waters and this sounds reasonable.
the temps are extremely hot and the trade winds have been a lot stronger this year causing the dust to diminish tropical activity off the coast off africa....like i said before the dust drains the atmosphere and reduces the circulation around the storm to one big blob..thats why the nhc had trouble finding a center in theis one and they kept pushing it more north in every advisory...jed you are a loser..if you know so much which i dont believe..i think you get every thing from the nhc and just broadcast on here what they already said..none of the work is your own and then you come on here and make a crazy statement that you said yourself you wouldnt have made if you were working for the nhc ...heaven forbid if you ever work for the nhc we are in big trouble because im going to tell you flat out jed you know nothing what you are talking about..you are a joke with your predictions and i have seen you just once get something right with emily...everyone and there mother in law had that one right except me...but like i explained before i give out my forecast and i dont hedge ......i stick to what i said....i will be changing now from time to time as i see fit for other disturbances that form this year...according to my calculations my record is 4-2 for the year now...im writing this so called jeds tropical depression off the map...the one that he said would hit florida lol...what a loser..if you know anything about weather you should of known about the dust jed..its a pity then you get all these people hyped up who went through charley and you say plain as day irene wouls hit the se coast...like i said you need to go back to school and learn a lot more then you know because jed that a big fat 0 in my book...im sorry i had to say it jed but you think you know it all and you dont know crapola about the dust going on in africa right now..you are already telling people this dust has stopped...wrong again jed boy...this dust will be around to august 21 or 22 then it will finally clear the coast as the trade winds slack off....jed read the site i gave alec...please dont come up and b/s the people on here...
Looks like TD9 took a little westerly jog on visible loop. I think it's still too early to tell what will become of it.
You guys ever heard the expression "IT TAKES TWO TO TANGO"......Your feeding right into what the instigators want you to do........VINDICATION....THATS WHAT THESE PEOPLE WANT......
MrXpress,

I noticed that too. . however i dont think its enough at this time.
Stormtop, lay off jedkins. He NEVER said it would hit the SE coast. He said it could!!! and you know it still could in theory(though I doubt it). Try this on for size
1)storm weakens
2)storm pushed west by the low levels
3)storm as weak system bypasses weakness in Ridge.
4) when it passes the weakness in ridge it enters an area of warm water.
5) storm now pass weakness strengthens becasue cat5 and hits somebody.

will this happen, probably not but it can't be ruled out. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, I'M MAKING A POINT
weatherboyfsu

you are probably the smartest person here.

and now i enter ignore stormtop mode for the rest of the season.
jed for your information that is the big reason why i revised my prediction from 22 named storms to 16...the dust will be a big factor and usually by sept 15 cape verde seaon is over...so you need to read up on these things jed before you make crazy predictions telling the people on here the dust is gone..its not gone jed it will be there for another 3 weeks...and yes one storm did form in august before i sais and it didnt come within 1000 miles of the great usa...i predicted only 2 jed only 2 in the cape verde season..rocket i apologize to you i thought you said it but you did say you thought it was going out to sea...im sorry for mentioning your name...it was it was denials i was talking about another know it all and knows jack crap...him and jed need to get together and predict hurricanes...what a laugher that would be....well you will see me in 1.5 weeks when the next storm appears but dont look for anything big to happen because the dust will still be around...ok guys play nice and ill see you then...
1285. K8e1
then you better realize he has more than one alibi on here....he couldnt stay away for a week his control issues are too strong....now back to the weather....
1286. K8e1
however i might have made mistake with hawkeye one sorry hawkeye
yes tx and the thing could hit the space shuttle knock it off its orbit and send it to mars...you know how silly you sound....im off of here...
1288. K8e1
i said it would hit se coast and still say that
TD9 can not keep moving north at this time. The trade winds are directly westerly, i just dont see it moving north at the same brisk pace it has. I expect a more westerly movement for the next 12 hours, at least.

1290. Denials
Umm...stormtop...this is the only thing I'm going to say to you, and then I'm shutting up.

Read this carefully.

I have never made a single prediction on this blog. Not one. I read what you guys say and enjoy the conversation. I post stuff from the NHC. But that's it. No predictions from me - I don't know enough about this stuff to do it, and I know that I don't know enough, so I don't make predictions. So guess what? I've never been wrong! :) Of course, I've never been right either, but I'm happy with that record.

So please, don't bring me into this, because I haven't made a single prediction about where any storm is going.

Thanks.
"Outliers are entries that deviate so much from the comparable numbers in a table that they can be considered as irreconcilable with the other data."

Stormtop is nothing more than an outlier. Disregard him.
i don't know if this model page has been posted but here goes (its outline is very good)

Link
I just realized something:

Someone said earlier that a storm does not develop after the low has become exposed.

What about Harvey? His low was very exposed and then he quickly developed directly over Bermuda. Now, it is ture that he had a lot of other convection associated with him at the time, but still, thats one example.
1294. K8e1
thats a great link hunter been looking for something like that
ture was meant to be TRUE, typo
1296. Jedkins
I did not say the dust wasn't there you are just mad at me because I am making you look bad,so you throw childish and meaningless coments at me......
Punk, the key difference is that Harvey was a hybrid system and many of the normal rules(like shear,water temp to a degree) are somewhat altered for such a system. Once it becomes a true tropical system then it behaves as normal.

One of the big factors in calling a system tropical is the wind field. A tropical system has all its strong winds near the core, a subtropical system tends to have them displaced away from the center as harvey was then.
ftp://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/eptoms/images/display_aero/Y2005/DISPLAY_AERO.JPG

Here is the current dust/aerosol index map. Huge dust storm coming off the coast right as we speak.
I think I posted the last link too soon. That dust storm is now at the same latitude as TD9. . the new wave coming off the coast does not have the same dust to contend with. Maybe a better chance of development? Who knows.
Oops, i am messing up recently, longitude rather than latitude.
Well, guys, all it takes is one look at this morning's visible loop to see that TD9 is finished. I would not be surprised if it even becomes Irene now. Satellite shows the surface low completely exposed and shooting northwestward, already at almost 17 degrees north latitude. It would be a miracle if it was able to recover and make it even halfway across the Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
now i will tell you this hawk is from iowa obviously and he is the best forcaster in here in my opinion..he is very direct and gets to the point..thats why i wanted you guys to see what he said earlier this morning...the rest of you guys still had it moving south of the islands and i will bring those posts up..jed i have a doosy you posted that im bringing up...i went back and looked at mine and i was right on with this td 9......
thats a neat picture, as one of my profs once said when he was looking at a thundestorm outside(we were all oohing and awing and he was real theorist and so real weather didn't appeal to him)"looks intersesting wish I knew more about the subject".
1303. K8e1
stomtop and your other alibis i thought you were leaving...i'd like to talk about the weather with someone who isnt a control freak
K8e1 who are his other Alibis. We joked about it being Alec, but that was just a joke. But I do want to know who they are, I skip over much of the non weather conversation, so I might have missed something.
stormtop nice link..td9 is moving almost right on the revised NHC forecast and at a good clip too.
1306. Alec
Stormtop, why the heck do you name me in your earlier posts and LIE to everyone by saying i said this tropical system would make it to the US? Its like i go away and i come back to hear you fighting with others and needlessly using my name on your entrees. You are annoying me to death. You seem to mention me cause you think itll make you feel smarter by attacking everything i say. If you want to have an argument, dont waste this blog, do it in your own blog. Im sick of your inconsiderate statements. BACK OFF!!!
aliases.....;-)
1308. K8e1
just be alert for the same insistence on being right and tendency to insinuate that every one but him is stupid
can't we all just get along............LOL if someone is annoying just ignore them. If you respond it fuels things..just go on as if that person isn't on. If they don't get a reaction eventually they'll get bored...let's get back to discussing the tropics..like adults and just having friendly conversation...
1310. K8e1
could someone send me a good satellite link to TD9 if it still is
Is it just me, but on the visible loop, does it look like there could be a ciculation(think it would be midlevel), in the convection or remains down south of the TD.
1312. 147257
is TD 9 reformating again and i read everything you said Stormtop with all respect give those guys and me a chane ;)
here ya go....even the storms to the sw are disappearing...there i scirculation but....

TD9 satellite
1314. 147257
if it reformates i'm still thinking it could hit the sss islands
K8, here's some
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg
also a real good site for storms.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
1316. 147257
ehm sorry i looked wrong :/
1317. 147257
this is a nice nw path
1318. captg8r
I'm just a lurker and I come here as a fan, not an expert, for educated opinions from others. Please, this is getting out of control. I acutally enjoy an occasional ribbing or personal competition but when pages of crap are written, personally attacking another writer, it's more than I can handle. Please don't ruin this for everyone. I don't need to mention any name(s). Stick to weather.
I can see everyone on here seems to think this TD9 might already be a tropical storm. . i doubt it.

The storm actually looks less impressive than it did earlier in the day. Yes, it will be a depression soon, but I definately dont see a jump to a storm name just yet. Its a huge circulation, but that doesnt mean it is strong.

REMEMBER: size does NOT equal strength
very good post punk im sorry if i got you messed up with some other guys...you were right on punk the only negative post was when you said the dust is leaving the african coast...good job on dep#9
punk, for what it's worth the 12z Canadian model takes the TD9 circulation wnw from this point to a area east of the Bahamas in a week or so. The circulation certainly won't be turning due north anytime soon, but the subtropical ridge will have to build fast and strong for there to remain any threat to the US.
1321. 147257
stormtop give me a site where i can read that african dust still coming up i read somewhere it stopped and second

is it possible that if this TD 9 dies that out the clouds of 10 N and 45 W a new TD excist?
Long time Lurker making first post ever.

While looking at the models for TD9 I was noticing a disturbance alot father to the east.(W coast of FL.)
I was wondering about the mm5FSU model from between 24h to 120h There appears to be something develop off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. .Link

Is this a tropical disturbance? The model seems to strengthen and move NE through Georgia and up the coast?

I also noticed that the water temps in that area over the past 10 days or so has become HOTLink

I realize that it is more common earlier in the season but could a tropical system develop in that area this time of year.
it's still tracking..nw..no signs of a wnw movement..yet..it has a large but weak circulation...probably wouldn't take much to influence it's track a bit..but like Hawk said unless the subtropical ridge rebuilds quickly It will be to late to resurrect this storm much if at all......
this storm is going wnw for a while then west then nw in NC i would be worried if i were you but you have plenty of time to get prepared this wont be a fish storm it will be a southeast mid atlantic storm or get perilously close

now k8 you remember this post now how stupid do you really feel...tell everyone going to n carolina lol...
1325. Alec
Stormtop you enjoy ridiculing people.
1326. 147257
hey alec :) when do you think this will be a TS?
1327. Alec
You mean the one out in the Atlantic???
no 147 you read the african dust was gone from a post punk put on here earlier..i stated it was going to be around for at least 2 more weeks then the trade winds will slack up and more tropical activity will begin...alec has the site if you scroll up you will be able to get it..its a very interesting site something punk should of researched before he made the crazy statement the dust was gone...
1329. Alec
African dust is dwindling down nicolai, so tropical activity should increase the weeks to come.
1330. 147257
i only hope on a good hurricane that make the water cooler without to do too much damage
1331. Alec
Thats right nicolai. cooler water caused by hurricanes will cause subsequent ones not able to use all the initial heat energy in the ocean if it travels over another storm's tracks.
1332. 147257
yes alec i mean TD 9 :)
1333. 147257
Stormtop if you that good :) tell me if a hurricane will go over THE ABC island its 50 miles above venezuela
1334. Alec
Nicolai, the TD is struggling with drier air and a bit cooler waters. It may just fall apart if it doesnt keep itself together over the central atlantic.
1335. 147257
ok i hate that i just wanted that the name Irene was gone now i have to be afraid again i hate al the I storms :-S :-(
the dust was gone for a short period. . and then it blossomed up again. right now i dont see it dieing down for another 5-6 days. however, the most recent wave coming off the coast is not inbedded within one of these dust clouds
1337. 147257
and i'm sure that a few people agree with me

i'm recalling Ivan Isabelle Isidore Iris Isaac all the I are pretty strong too all major hurricanes i can call more names
The convection ploom that I was saying was possible for TD9 is beginning right as we speak. Keep an eye on it for the next hour or so. If this ploom does not increase in size quickly we can write this storm off completely and it has absolutely NO chance of development. If the burst does increase, and we get some convection around the eye, it might have a chance to get named before it moves too far north.

I do not expect anything more than a minimal/medium tropical storm if the convection does enhance over the next hour. However, the enhanced convection is a definate MAYBE.
Ok, i said eye. . i meant center of circulation. . dont ridicule me for it.
1340. 147257
Storm Dates Maximum winds(mph) Minimum Pressure Deaths
Hurricane Ivan 09/02 - 09/18 165 910
Hurricane Isabel 09/06 - 09/19 160 920 25
Hurricane Isidore 09/14 - 09/26 125 934 4
Hurricane Iris 10/04 - 10/09 140 950 31
Hurricane Isaac 9/21 - 10/01 140 943 19

its not good the name i

1341. 147257
I hope so it doesnt develop :) and it only develops to a i
does anyone think something will form out there in the GOM?
1343. 147257
sorry my english is not that good whats GOM
Gulf Of Mexico
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

This image actually shows some rotation of the clouds and maybe convection???????
which way do you see it moving?
1347. 147257
Raysfan70 i think there is something possible there but not for the next 3 days
I posted this 1 hour ago.

"Long time Lurker making first post ever.

While looking at the models for TD9 I was noticing a disturbance alot father to the east.(W coast of FL.)
I was wondering about the mm5FSU model from between 24h to 120h There appears to be something develop off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.Link
1349. 147257
i dont see anything
i checked out your link earlier that is why I asked the question I thought but figurung it is so close to land nothing may come of it.
From the 2:05p NHC discussion

A POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY FORM NEAR 32N89W IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY.
I just wondering with the trough comeing down what they are going to bring for development in the Gulf now. Could make the whole season wild.
Mid to upper level development means no tropical development. . just a nice low pressure system.
:) :) Wow my first posts and I found something. Thanks MrXpress and Raysfan70.

By the way Raysfan is that - TB Devil Rays fan. I'm a bostonian displaced in Orlando. I go to every Sox vs. Rays games in tampa. I have become a huge fan of TB.
1355. 147257
hmmz i didnt know where it was but i posted something like that today

Posted By: 147257 at 12:44 PM GMT op 05 Augustus, 2005.
site gives this warning

Currently, a weak upper-level low is situated over southern Mississippi-southern Alabama. Every once in a while, underneath such systems, a low-level circulation can form. It is an area to watch over the next few days.
1356. 147257
news is 6 hours old :)
yes that is Tampa Bay always go for the underdog. the system seems to be strong right now. Does it say anything abot movement?
147 didn't see that that post. I am not claiming to have discovered it but just that I noticed it with the mm5FSU computer model late yesterday and this morning. It's all amature hour all the time over here.
1359. 147257
its not i want the glory :P i even didnt know where it was only recalling something ;)
1360. 147257
btw call me nicolai :)
I just want to try and learn more about the storms and what makes them do and go where they go? so i guess that I am an amature. Like it though when there is nobody arguing with anybody seems a waste of time to me.
1362. 147257
damn that noaa makes a good prediction path for TD 9
what is that
1364. 147257
i'm a amateure too so dont cry :P how old are ya ?
34
1366. 147257
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
look here en click Trop FCst on and watch it now it still taking the path they predicted
1367. 147257
l0l are theyre more people of my age around 16
1368. 147257
guys could someone take a look at 29 N 70 W there is a big clouds still growing
you all seem to know alot about your Hurricanes I see that everyone talks about the FSU model can you give the web site I have been intrested in this, and they said that it did a good job last year.
1370. 147257
l0l i dont know the FSU site sorry :( but all i can tell you now is that i see a big storm forming above Florida is start like the same as yesterday http://vortex.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?anim=LOOP&type=ei&large=1&site=ATL®ion=CAR
1371. 147257
so take youre cameras and film something beautifull for me :D

Alec is it still raining by you?
147257, good predictions or not....it's just plain irresponsible to tell the public not to worry or even watch a storm this far out. especially when the NHC is disagreeing.

I'm not the best forecaster in the world.....but I don't post irresponsible statements because it's what I think.

Anyway, I'm done discussing STORMTOP.....I'm sticking to my new 'skip-over' rule.

evolution dont you feel like a dam fool posting this...you are a real critic..you should look at yourself in the mirror..you know absolutely nada about forecasting hurricanes..stick to knitting..lol
1373. 147257
ok i will try to say less but i will still say my opinion and why i think it :)
1374. hazmat
yes...looks like we could have some homebrew stirring in the GOM...be interesting to watch if anything develops.

still too soon to write td9 off yet...climatology speaking this season hasn't followed the rules.
1375. 147257
i agree with that
1376. 147257
i'm going again i see you guys on 5 pm and 11 pm and for the ones in Florida prolly a big thunderstorm again have fun and stay save
No one uses this blog as a 'public advisory', so no one is doing any harm by predicting future scenarios. This is just an informal discussion by people who aren't exactly the cream of the crop of meteorology (despite what some of you think). People might (and should) take what Steve Gregory and Jeff Masters have to say seriously, but it's pretty much assumed that every comment posted in response to the main blog post should be taken with the biggest grain of salt in the world.
1378. Denials
Yes, definitely zoo-grade salt lick, not your regular table salt.
I'm going on vacation...ya'll have a good one!
New section created
I understand that people have the OPINIONS but why must everybody always have to fight. Like people say this is a place for people talk and try and learn off people not to argue no one has true facts about anything unless they are From NOAA, I just want to learn like others. Please stop bickering
punk where is the new blog
You have to click on Dr. Masters' main blog and you will find the new comments section.
thanks
nicolai I am 14 close to your age!
I'm not the best forecaster in the world.....but I don't post irresponsible statements because it's what I think

LOL, have we forgotten about emily, gert, the depression that never formed over puerto rice and the explosive growth of nothing over the bay of campeche!!!!!!!

Stormtop, you really need to quit blasting people on the blog who do not agree with you. GROW UP.
Posted By: Alec at 9:44 PM GMT on August 04, 2005.
i can see that another wave is getting ready to come off Africa. Conditions are more condusive over there since the african dust plume has let up.

wrong again alec i gave you the article and i cant believe you said the dust is letting up ....the dust will be there another 2 weeks alec and anything that comes off the coast will have a very hard time developing.
1388. 147257
yeah i see that one too pretty big :)
stormtop, You called it early wednesday, I just had a good time with my friends here at LSU and most of my friends from the NO now think this is the one, can't say I told them so , but I think its about to become too real for alot folks down here
1390. Alec
hi i went back in time.......its friday oct14 2005......man have things changed...
1391. Alec
Going back in time.....looks like im beeing watched!!!LOL
1392. Alec
what do you guys think Wilma will do???LOL