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Hurricane Sandy was not an extreme Black Swan hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on December 10, 2012

I was in San Francisco last week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over twenty thousand scientists from all over the world, including many of the world's top climate scientists and hurricane scientists, were in town to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. One of the more intriguing talks was given by Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. She and Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT are studying "Black Swans"--tropical cyclones that are a surprise to the observer, and cannot be anticipated based on the 162-year historical record. Very rare extreme hurricanes that one might expect to occur naturally once every 10,000 years are possible, and “climate change has increased the probability of such storms,” Emanuel said at a press conference last week. In terms of storm surge, Sandy was not a black swan, since the 1821 hurricane that hit New York City had a higher storm surge. Historical records recount that the water rose thirteen feet in one hour at The Battery on Manhattan during the 1821 hurricane. The water level did not rise as high as during Sandy, though, since the 1821 hurricane hit at low tide.

Lin and Emanuel used a climate model in combination with a detailed hurricane model to generate a large number of hypothetical hurricanes in the future climate, and generated 10,000 years worth of storm surge events. They then used a detailed storm surge model (ADCIRC) to evaluate the storm surge risk these storms posed. Their three case studies:

1) The Persian Gulf. No tropical cyclones have ever been observed in the Persian Gulf, due to the Gulf's low humidity and high wind shear. However, the Gulf has some of the warmest water temperatures on the planet, and could theoretically support a strong tropical cyclone. The researchers' modeling predicted a 1-in-248,000 probability that a strong tropical cyclone originating in the western Persian Gulf could move eastwards and bring a 7 meter (16 foot) storm surge to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Obviously, such an event would be extremely disruptive to the global energy economy, which relies heavily on the infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

2) Darwin, Australia. In 1974, tiny but powerful Tropical Cyclone Tracy brought a 1.6 meter (5.2') storm surge to the city. Lin and Emanuel's research showed that a black swam tropical cyclone with a probability of 1-in-70,000 is capable of bringing a devastating 11.5 meter (38') storm surge to the city.

3) Tampa Bay, Florida. Only two major Category 3 hurricanes have hit Tampa: an 1848 hurricane that raised waters levels by 4.6 meters (15'), and a 1921 storm with a storm surge of 3.2 meters (10.5'.) A black swan storm moving from south to north just offshore could set up a resonance in Tampa Bay and generate a 13 meter (43') storm surge. Such a storm has a 1-in-14,500 chance of occurring in a given year. This would likely do over $250 billion in damage, I expect.


Figure 1. Damage to Bayshore Boulevard after the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane. The road leads to the Tampa Bay Convention Center from the south.


Figure 2. Track of the Tampa Bay Hurricane of 1921, one of only two major hurricanes ever to hit the city. This Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds brought a storm surge of 10.5 feet to Tampa Bay. A "Black Swan" hurricane capable of generating a 43' storm surge would not take a track like this, and instead would move from south to north just offshore.

Jeff Masters
Freak black swan?
Freak black swan?
All the other swans are on Lake Annecy are white - as far as I know - so where did this black one come from?

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TomballTXPride:



Pretty ridiculous then.

I hear you.

Kinda like when certain ones on here do the same thing.

Only they make a case for the entire globe being warm when only one part of the world is cold.

Seems those are the Folks that only operate according to an agenda, including JB.

Doesn't make for a good forecaster. I'll tell you that much.





I've tried to give him the benefit of the doubt because I had heard that he's a pretty good long range forecaster. But from what I've seen is that he one of these guys that throws 100 things agains the wall and when hits he pounds his chest and says I told you so. Obviously he forgets about the 99 misses.
keep tuned to your Local warnings today folks...........HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. RESIDENTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES CAN QUICKLY DROP BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE. MOTORISTS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND MAINTAIN A SAFE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I've tried to give him the benefit of the doubt because I had heard that he's a pretty good long range forecaster. But from what I've seen is that he one of these guys that throws 100 things agains the wall and when hits he pounds his chest and says I told you so. Obviously he forgets about the 99 misses.


I'm guessing this probably sums him up

Is there anybody on here right now from another part of the united states besides Florida?.God that's like all you see that's posting..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is there anybody on here right now from another part of the united states besides Florida?.God that's like all you see that's posting..


Me!!

Oh wait, you have me on ignore.

:-[


Quoting washingtonian115:
Is there anybody on here right now from another part of the united states besides Florida?.God that's like all you see that's posting..
well other than complaints, YOU havent posted any weather related items..whats up with that?



And Largo, keep posting Buddy.

Until she sees 20 inches of snow over D.C. or a category 5 hurricane coming up the Chesapeake, she won't be happy.

I like your updates.

Plus you even include my neck of the woods here in the Greater Houston Metro Area.

Keep trucking....


Quoting LargoFl:
well other than complaints, YOU havent posted any weather related items..whats up with that?
Yes I have posted about my weather.Unfortunately it seems more than a half of bloggers here are from Florida.So I have no one to really relate to.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


And Largo, keep posting Buddy.

Until she sees 20 inches of snow over D.C., she won't be happy.

I like your updates.

Plus you even include my neck of the woods here in the Greater Houston Metro Area.

Keep trucking....


thanks i do try to post alot on other parts and states when i can, especially the gulf area's ..hope you made it thru that freeze last night..we havent had one here yet this year
510. vanwx
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Does anyone follow Joe B. on Twitter (I took him off this morning)? Someone needs to explain to him that if one small part of the world is cold that doesn't mean that the entire globe is cold. Also, November he kept calling for major cold outbreaks in the US for Dec (citing no GW) and so far I haven't seen any (although it has been cold in Alaska).


How to un-make a weatherman?

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/forecas ting-denial-why-are-tv-weathercasters-ignoring-cli mate-change-20121205

I just noticed Dr.Masters mentioned at the end.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I have posted about my weather.Unfortunately it seems more than a half of bloggers here are from Florida.So I have no one to really relate to.
ok well if you posted more weather items for you surrounding area..maybe others will join in and do the same..florida is under the gun this week so we are posting alot about it yeah..when you folks get your blizzards and snowfalls it would be great to be reading your posts about it..where you live doesnt really matter on here, we have europeans and even australia on here..THEY post alot about their weather..do the same ok..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
0:00 AM FST December 12 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 14.8S 177.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved with multiple bands trying to wrap around the center of the system. The system lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Tropical depression is being steered east southeast by west northwest deep layer mean wind. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap giving DT=2.5, MET=2.0, and PT=2.0 FT based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.4S 175.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 13.7S 173.5W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.8S 171.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
839 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018- VAZ052>057-
120945-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
839 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MARYLAND WATERS SOUTH OF
SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 1PM.

ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MARYLAND WATERS
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC FROM 10PM UNTIL 6
AM TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA AND THE
SOUTHERN POTOMAC RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
As of now, local West Palm Beach Met has set the daytime high a week from tomorrow at 60°. I hope the models are right this time!
Quoting TomballTXPride:



And Largo, keep posting Buddy.

Until she sees 20 inches of snow over D.C. or a category 5 hurricane coming up the Chesapeake, she won't be happy.

I like your updates.

Plus you even include my neck of the woods here in the Greater Houston Metro Area.

Keep trucking....


d.c. here. 47 and mostly cldy here now.
chilly but not too bad huh texas...
Mandeville, LA here...38 and partly cloudy


04F near American Samoa
Quoting stormchaser43:
d.c. here. 47 and mostly cldy here now.
So now one decides to pop out?.

Sunday-Monday were not the best days.It was cloudy and rainy.Glad to be seeing the sun,I almost feel like a vampire.
Quoting StormPro:
Mandeville, LA here...38 and partly cloudy
Quoting StormPro:
Mandeville, LA here...38 and partly cloudy
38? wow what a difference a day makes huh..hope you folks didnt get too bad a storm when it came thru
Quoting vanwx:


How to un-make a weatherman?

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/forecas ting-denial-why-are-tv-weathercasters-ignoring-cli mate-change-20121205

I just noticed Dr.Masters mentioned at the end.


Nice article vanwx; but mind if I make one suggestion, instead of posting the article's URL use the Link button and put the URL into that prompt. When you put the URL in the text it breaks it up the link causing a 404 Page cannot be found error.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As of now, local West Palm Beach Met has set the daytime high a week from tomorrow at 60°. I hope the models are right this time!
hmmm my 7 day has 70's..we'll see if that changes next week when that new cold front gets closer, 60's would be a great change though huh..more christmas like
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1003 PM SST MON DEC 10 2012
AMERICAN SAMOA COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING
THE FAGATELE BAY NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
PSZ100-112145-
1003 PM SST MON DEC 10 2012

SYNOPSIS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA COASTAL WATERS

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (04F) IS CENTERED AT 15.1S 177.8W OR ABOUT 420 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MIDWEEK.
Knew the winds would stay up all night over SE TX,(light winds) they shouldn't have issued the freeze warning, now tonight will be different as winds should go dead calm. Only in the mid to upper 30s in my area, so why they issued a freeze warning from 9PM last night to 9AM was ridiculous.

Winds don't go calm normally when the frontal passage is 24 hrs old
Good Morning All,

1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida..




For you washingtonian115.. :)
Quoting pcola57:
1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida..


1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida..




For you washingtonian115.. :)
Lol.
amazing last night ..just off the coastline there were 600 lighting strikes in one hour..never saw so much lightning before, boom after boom after boom..my lil dogs hid under the beds lol...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Knew the winds would stay up all night over SE TX,(light winds) they shouldn't have issued the freeze warning, now tonight will be different as winds should go dead calm. Only in the mid to upper 30s in my area, so why they issued a freeze warning from 9PM last night to 9AM was ridiculous.

Winds don't go calm normally when the frontal passage isn't even 24 hrs old
you folks have a freeze warning for tonight yet rita?
Quoting LargoFl:
you folks have a freeze warning for tonight yet rita?


Probably, tonight will be more ideal conditions for NE, E, and SE TX, rest of state will start getting return flow
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I have posted about my weather.Unfortunately it seems more than a half of bloggers here are from Florida.So I have no one to really relate to.


Just because we are not experiencing the same kind of weather at the same time doesn't mean we can't relate...oops wait I'm from Florida, sorry :) and wait I could be on ignore oh well LOL!

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Tampa Bay area is kind of in the middle of this sandwich :) Dumb question but is the kind of north to south streaking of clouds out in the Gulf caused by shear or just some wind? If it isn't big enough to see what I mean you should be able to click on it.
Quoting icmoore:


Just because we are not experiencing the same kind of weather at the same time doesn't mean we can't relate...oops wait I'm from Florida, sorry :) and wait I could be on ignore oh well LOL!

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Tampa Bay area is kind of in the middle of this sandwich :) Dumb question but is the kind of north to south streaking of clouds out in the Gulf caused by shear or just some wind? If it isn't big enough to see what I mean you should be able to click on it.
well there is a series of lows in this cold fron stretching all along the east coast, my guess is the high level clouds you see streaming across florida will ride up along the front, up into the northeast moisture is coming across the gulf all the way from mexico
Still holding at 39-40 degrees around here, COLD none the less, and there's a breeze
Quoting icmoore:


Just because we are not experiencing the same kind of weather at the same time doesn't mean we can't relate...oops wait I'm from Florida, sorry :) and wait I could be on ignore oh well LOL!

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Tampa Bay area is kind of in the middle of this sandwich :) Dumb question but is the kind of north to south streaking of clouds out in the Gulf caused by shear or just some wind? If it isn't big enough to see what I mean you should be able to click on it.
No your not on ignore.It just that well you Floridians have each other to talk about your local weather.For an example

"Did you see that amazing lightning storm yesterday night?"."It put on quite a show for sure".

"Yes it certainly did it was absolutely bright and the thinder was rumbling everywhere".

Meanwhile in soggy cloudy and cool D.C I have no one to share locally about how depressing this weekend was in terms of weather.The tempetures might have been in the 60's but it was all gray out side.
Quoting icmoore:


Just because we are not experiencing the same kind of weather at the same time doesn't mean we can't relate...oops wait I'm from Florida, sorry :) and wait I could be on ignore oh well LOL!

a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">

Tampa Bay area is kind of in the middle of this sandwich :) Dumb question but is the kind of north to south streaking of clouds out in the Gulf caused by shear or just some wind? If it isn't big enough to see what I mean you should be able to click on it.


I think it's shear..I clicked on it and thats what I think..there's a W/V loop there too..
Funky weather system going through our area icmore..
Unstable in spotty places..
And like Largo pointed out..the sun will create some issues later on too.. :)
this about the alabama tornado yesterday...........NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED DAMAGE JUST
NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN BIRMINGHAM. IT HAS BEEN DETERMINED THAT THE
DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO. MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
UP TO 90 MPH. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST WEST OF 3RD PLACE
WEST...OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BIRMINGHAM FARMERS MARKET. FROM
THERE...IT MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS A LIGHT INDUSTRIAL/
WAREHOUSE AREA...STRIKING A LARGE METAL BUILDING. SEVERAL OVERHEAD
DOORS AT THE LOADING DOCK WERE BLOWN IN...WHICH THEN BLEW OUT ABOUT
25 PERCENT OF THE ROOF OFF THE BUILDING. DEBRIS FROM THIS STRUCTURE
WAS FOUND UP TO A MILE AWAY. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH A RESIDENTIAL AREA...CAUSING DAMAGE TO 29 HOMES...2 OF WHICH
HAD MAJOR DAMAGE AND ONE OF WHICH LOST ITS ROOF ENTIRELY. A CHURCH
AND TWO OTHER BUSINESS WERE DAMAGED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FINLEY
BLVD AND 16TH STREET. THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
24TH COURT NORTH AND 18TH STREET NORTH...JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
Oddly eerie.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Still holding at 39-40 degrees around here, COLD none the less, and there's a breeze
When's it going to warm up?
Quoting vanwx:


How to un-make a weatherman?

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/forecas ting-denial-why-are-tv-weathercasters-ignoring-cli mate-change-20121205

I just noticed Dr.Masters mentioned at the end.

Here's a link for your post.
I need a paper bag....this ain't quite long term you know:

Last run:


And then the big noreaster for Washi and the rest of you guys:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oddly eerie.

wow great pic there..amazing what a tornado can do huh
Quoting washingtonian115:
No your not on ignore.It just that well you Floridians have each other to talk about your local weather.For an example

"Did you see that amazing lightning storm yesterday night?"."It put on quite a show for sure".

"Yes it certainly did it was absolutely bright and the thinder was rumbling everywhere".

Meanwhile in soggy cloudy and cool D.C I have no one to share locally about how depressing this weekend was in terms of weather.The tempetures might have been in the 60's but it was all gray out side.


It's because folks that live in highly populated areas have tunnel vision and don't see the world for what it really is, like paying attention to weather. They are sucked into the marketing world and only think about where they are going, and what is going on NOW. I have cousins in NJ who are just like this. Basically out of touch with the real world around them. Most of the country is this way.
Quoting washingtonian115:
No your not on ignore.It just that well you Floridians have each other to talk about your local weather.For an example

"Did you see that amazing lightning storm yesterday night?"."It put on quite a show for sure".

"Yes it certainly did it was absolutely bright and the thinder was rumbling everywhere".

Meanwhile in soggy cloudy and cool D.C I have no one to share locally about how depressing this weekend was in terms of weather.The tempetures might have been in the 60's but it was all gray out side.

Hey, the weather was depressing and still is. I hate winter.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

FLZ069-070-111545-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
1006 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL COLLIER
COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 1001 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTH OF ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE ROMANO...
AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK...
SOUTH BLOCKS GOLDEN GATE...
PICAYUNE STRAND STATE FOREST...
PORT OF THE ISLANDS...
EVERGLADES CITY...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
.CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.
Quoting overwash12:
When's it going to warm up?


Thursday
Quoting bappit:

Hey, the weather was depressing and still is. I hate winter.
I like winter,spring,fall and summer!
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's because folks that live in highly populated areas have tunnel vision and don't see the world for what it really is, like paying attention to weather. They are sucked into the marketing world and only think about where they are going, and what is going on NOW. I have cousins in NJ who are just like this. Basically out of touch with the real world around them. Most of the country is this way.



What a gross mis-generalization.

I love the stereotyping.

Hey Rita, only two weeks until the winter solstice....



Quoting washingtonian115:
No your not on ignore.It just that well you Floridians have each other to talk about your local weather.For an example

"Did you see that amazing lightning storm yesterday night?"."It put on quite a show for sure".

"Yes it certainly did it was absolutely bright and the thinder was rumbling everywhere".

Meanwhile in soggy cloudy and cool D.C I have no one to share locally about how depressing this weekend was in terms of weather.The tempetures might have been in the 60's but it was all gray out side.


I have seen my share of gray, cloudy, dreary days, too and man they depressing! That is one reason why winter, besides the temps, is my least favorite season. It always seems worse when the days are so short and it stays cloudy all day. I need my sunshine!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I need a paper bag....this ain't quite long term you know:

Last run:


And then the big noreaster for Washi and the rest of you guys:
Bullseye over my area.The question is whether the cold air will be in place.So far this year usually when precipitation is around we are in the 40's and upward.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
.CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.
.....gee IF that storm pulls up all this gulf moisture we have around here..watch out..big snows for sure
bet the gators are real happy with all this new water huh..
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's because folks that live in highly populated areas have tunnel vision and don't see the world for what it really is, like paying attention to weather. They are sucked into the marketing world and only think about where they are going, and what is going on NOW. I have cousins in NJ who are just like this. Basically out of touch with the real world around them. Most of the country is this way.
You mean like "Sheeple"? Did I even spell that right?
Quoting overwash12:
You mean like "Sheeple"? Did I even spell that right?



LMAO.

Yeah, I think you did.




Quoting TomballTXPride:



What a gross mis-generalization.

I love the stereotyping.

Hey Rita, only two weeks until the winter solstice....





Yes, winter time
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yes, winter time



Pat would be very angry with you.




Geaorgiastorms how far out in time is this anyway?.Two weeks time?.
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing last night ..just off the coastline there were 600 lighting strikes in one hour..never saw so much lightning before, boom after boom after boom..my lil dogs hid under the beds lol...


Last evening around 5:30 we had a fairly powerful t-storm pass through. Lasted about 20 minutes, with heavy rain and temps around 14 degrees C. That's pretty freaky for Nova Scotia in mid-December.
Quoting bluenosedave:


Last evening around 5:30 we had a fairly powerful t-storm pass through. Lasted about 20 minutes, with heavy rain and temps around 14 degrees C. That's pretty freaky for Nova Scotia in mid-December.
thanks for letting us know..yes the weather sure is strange lately
The GFS say it will snow twice here. First next week as the minor storm moves through and then on Christmas with that major nor Easter.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE THIS MORNING...SUFFICIENT HEATING...
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL PAST
SUNSET. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING ORGANIZED
AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH TODAY...
THERE WILL STILL BE A DISCERNIBLE...ALBEIT LOW...TORNADO THREAT.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 2
PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
Quoting washingtonian115:
No your not on ignore.It just that well you Floridians have each other to talk about your local weather.For an example

"Did you see that amazing lightning storm yesterday night?"."It put on quite a show for sure".

"Yes it certainly did it was absolutely bright and the thinder was rumbling everywhere".

Meanwhile in soggy cloudy and cool D.C I have no one to share locally about how depressing this weekend was in terms of weather.The tempetures might have been in the 60's but it was all gray out side.
Wash, I'm in Florida but I didn't see any lightning. It's 83 degress right now according to WU. The mornings have been a bit moist and the Keys only saw one morning with fog. That is a rare event here. Don't know if that cold will reach us though. It would be nice to be a little bit cooler so I can commence my holiday baking.I like cloudy days, down here anyway , because it keeps the temps down. Put some Christmas music on and it should cheer you up:)
Oooooh...So for every ounce of snow the GFS gives out, the ECMWF gives out a bigger severe wx chance:




James Spann is not happy about any of this :)

Cold core upper low; weatherman's woe. One week from today. Let's see if it holds up.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS say it will snow twice here. First next week as thy minor storm moves through and then on Christmas with that major nor Easter.
great maybe you will..get a white christmas after all...good luck
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
Quoting LargoFl:
.....gee IF that storm pulls up all this gulf moisture we have around here..watch out..big snows for sure


the further south you go I'd be more concerned about severe wx, gfs and euro now in agreement :)
GFS keeps everything thunder related south of central GA and AL:

Euro is a tad more north
Details details.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS say it will snow twice here. First next week as the minor storm moves through and then on Christmas with that major nor Easter.


Lucky :P

Quoting washingtonian115:
Geaorgiastorms how far out in time is this anyway?.Two weeks time?.


One week's time to the SE, and if it follows that path it will go to the NE within a day or two.
I'm sure you'll at least get something, what we actually get is still an issue.
Quoting kwgirl:
Wash, I'm in Florida but I didn't see any lightning. It's 83 degress right now according to WU. The mornings have been a bit moist and the Keys only saw one morning with fog. That is a rare event here. Don't know if that cold will reach us though. It would be nice to be a little bit cooler so I can commence my holiday baking.I like cloudy days, down here anyway , because it keeps the temps down. Put some Christmas music on and it should cheer you up:)
Well it certainly did put me in the mood to go christmas shopping yesterday(staying in doors was the better option than if you had outdoor plans).

Georgiastorms The weather forcast showed us being in the 50's.So more than likely we'll get rain from whatever storm that is.However such forecast are highly unreliable so far out.
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!



EF0 tornado about 10 years ago. Was a teenage girl and staying at my Parent's house.

Remember running to the bedroom to grab my little sister out of bed to head down to the basement while the green glow illuminated with the flashing lightning.

I guess it wasn't weird, but the most intense and memorable...if that counts....

:p


Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it certainly did put me in the mood to go christmas shopping yesterday(staying in doors was the better option than if you had outdoor plans).



Cheer up already!!!!

You have RG3 and a team competing with the Giants for the NFC East title.

Seriously.

There's more to life than weather!!!!



Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
ok i'll bite..this is the weirdest weather event, i remeber this and thought at the time i didnt move far south enough lol..........Tampa (pronunciation: /ˈtæmpə/) is a city in the U.S. state of Florida. It serves as the county ..... The last measurable snow in Tampa fell on January 19, 1977
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
My wierdest weather event was fog in England. My husband and I were driving back from London to Scotland and got caught in a real pea soup type of fog. First and Last time I ever saw it so thick. My husband had to stick his head out the window to follow the line in the road. We couldn't even see enough to pull over. A lot of roads there have a ditch beside them instead of a berm.

Or it could have been the hail in Morocco. That was weird as well. Never saw it like that and haven't experienced it again.

I'm still waiting to see it rain fish. I have heard tales about it, but have never seen it. That would be the weirdest.
Quoting pcola57:


I think it's shear..I clicked on it and thats what I think..there's a W/V loop there too..
Funky weather system going through our area icmore..
Unstable in spotty places..
And like Largo pointed out..the sun will create some issues later on too.. :)


Thank you, pcola! :)
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
I was at the mall back in June 2001 when the Greenbelt tornado was occuring and I remember seeing trees bending over and debris flying everywhere.Of course before I could see anymore I ran and took shelter in the bathroom.
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


Arctic front was coming in back in 1999-2000, winds shifted to the NW with rain, temperature started dropping quick, (10 Degrees) then the wind started shifting back outta the SE and temp started going back up quick. (10 degrees) Wondered if the front was wobbling back and forth or something. Then finally it shifted back outta the NW and cold came in indefintely. Event took place within an hr or so
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Cheer up already!!!!

You have RG3 and a team competing with the Giants for the NFC East title.

Seriously.

There's more to life than weather!!!!





And I have the Atlanta Falcons coming to whoop the Giants next sunday......

At least I'm not a Texans fan today.....anyway i'm outta here, i'll be back at lunchtime
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


;)

Morning everyone!! The cold extends pretty far south.

tombelltx I can't see you so if your wondering why I haven't been responding that's why.Weather affects all of our lives in one way or the other.So actually if you really think about it...most of our lives do revolve around weather...whether we know it or not...
Quoting TomballTXPride:



What a gross mis-generalization.

I love the stereotyping.

Hey Rita, only two weeks until the winter solstice....





I agree with rita, but would expand it to people outside of urban areas as well. Cognitive myopathy seems to be very much a part of human nature. That is not meant as a judgemental statement, though.... The 'software' that the mind thinks with, interprets data with, is just like any other modeling system... it handles some kinds of data well, others less so, or even not at all.

It would probably be a good thing if people realized that they can consciously manage their modeling systems.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


;)

Pictures speak louder than words.
I remember hearing about Humberto on the news.People prepared for a weak 40mph storm only to wake up to a hurricane.
Deleted see picture below.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pictures speak louder than words.
I remember hearing about Humberto on the news.People prepared for a weak 40mph storm only to wake up to a hurricane.


Yep. Was definitely a rude awakening. lol
say Rita..they pushed the freeze warnings back into inland Texas today....
Weird weather event:

Lake effect snow squalls, when they are really cranking, have a central river of particularly heavy snow fall... more than 6" an hour in some cases. I lived for over 20 years in the snow belt of Lake Ontario. Once, (and only once did I ever see this happen, and never heard tell of it anywhere else), I was driving home a few miles to the south. Usually, the area where there is the heaviest snow gradually fades in over perhaps a half mile, but on this occasion it was a solid white wall extending up into the sky... it was like driving into a glass of milk.

Separately, on Thursday, the New Moon occurs not too far from Perigee. If there is any substance to the notion that earthquakes are triggered by tides in the atmosphere, water and Earth's crust, it may be a quakey few days presently.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Morning everyone!! The cold extends pretty far south.



Freeze reached down to I10 for the first time here.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. RESIDENTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
Quoting LargoFl:
say Rita..they pushed the freeze warnings back into inland Texas today....


Houston/Galveston NWS probably evaluating what to do, we'll know later this afternoon if they issue any
This is my weirdest weather event: Northeastern North Carolina 1989.. It was early Spring and a front had already passed in the nightime hrs. ... I guess the upper part of the atmo was very cold and when the sun came up,it caused violent updrafts! Behind my house stood a 1000 acre of pine. Thunderstorm popped up and put down nickel sized hail,lightning hit a dead pine causing it to burst into flames. When the storm passed a heavy fog rolled out of the woods with a heavy pine scent and there was a dead calm about the scene!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Still holding at 39-40 degrees around here, COLD none the less, and there's a breeze
It was 28 in Hockley this morning.
Quoting kwgirl:
Wash, I'm in Florida but I didn't see any lightning. It's 83 degress right now according to WU. The mornings have been a bit moist and the Keys only saw one morning with fog. That is a rare event here. Don't know if that cold will reach us though. It would be nice to be a little bit cooler so I can commence my holiday baking.I like cloudy days, down here anyway , because it keeps the temps down. Put some Christmas music on and it should cheer you up:)


Just a foot note for you kwgirl..front went through here yesterday with temps in the upper 70's..now I'm at 45..quite a difference in temp coming your way..
Quoting overwash12:
I like winter,spring,fall and summer!
Actually, I love all of the different weather, it's just the short days that I find depressing.
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


2 day dust storm..panhandle of Texas..1975..miserable.. :(
Structural Damage to My House in St. Petersburg with Tornado Warned Cell last night:



What sort of wind would produce this? It's going to be expensive to have someone go up there and replace it. I thought these were build to withstand much stronger winds.
Quoting bluheelrtx:
Actually, I love all of the different weather, it's just the short days that I find depressing.
Remember,laughter is the best medicine! lol
Quoting bluheelrtx:
It was 28 in Hockley this morning.


That is one gorgeous animal.





Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Dang...What happened to all the old embed codes on You Tube? Anyone have a tricky shortcut?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

YouTube doesn't support old embed codes anymore. You will just have to post the link to the video.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Email the secret and I will be nice. No more 99 Luft Balloons.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Come on Hades...email me how you do it!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Can't do it. Dr. Masters...please help us poor souls and format your blog to post You Tubes!!!!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Skye...if you have an easy way to do it...please just post it. It would be a nice Christmas present.
Quoting pcola57:

I did mine differently but a little more complicated as my code was alot different in the beginning..more character shuffle..works great though..I'll try your later..
Thanks Keep
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

I hate to ask...but if you say his name three times, he will come to help....Nea...Nea...Nea
Your calls have been answered. ;-)

Yes, all your YouTube problems are solved! Well, okay, perhaps not all of them. But some of them. Maybe. At least I hope so. I woke up this morning, read the above comments, and threw together a web page that converts the new YouTube embed code to the old embed code format for use here on WU (and other forums that still require it).

Neapolitan's YouTube Old Embed Coderizer

Let me know what you think...
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!
I have mentioned this before but....The Xenia Ohio tornado, April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. Luckily we just got out of high school because Xenia High School was totally destroyed. Many injured people walking around in a daze..Everywhere we looked there was damage. My only thought was to go home . I lived about 1/2 mile from school. The roads were impassible of course. Everyone walking around. A train had blown off it's tracks and divided the city in half. I made it home luckily my parents had minor damage but they were ok. This story could go on and on but you get the idea... It was a living hell for the next few weeks. Many friends were killed and injured.
Quoting pcola57:


Just a foot note for you kwgirl..front went through here yesterday with temps in the upper 70's..now I'm at 45..quite a difference in temp coming your way..
It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL
602. txjac
Wow Nea ...thanks so much
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


Well mine is not so much weird as scary. We were coming back from Cape Town South Africa. Stopping at one of the islands in Cape Verde to refuel during a 20 hour flight back to the US. This was back in Feb 2001. Anyways we encountered a microburst and the plane dropped rapidly. The captain came over the loud speaker telling flight attendants to secure the cabin. I could hear in the background the alarms going off. Needless to say things leveled out but I think 2/3rds of the passengers on the plane would have been able to be spokespeople for Depends…Myself included.
It is currently 76° in Fort Myers. Just heard a very strange sound for December. A big clapp of thunder!
Hope some nice rains are on the way finally
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I have mentioned this before but....The Xenia Ohio tornado, April 3rd, 1974, 3:40 pm. Luckily we just got out of high school because Xenia High School was totally destroyed. Many injured people walking around in a daze..Everywhere we looked there was damage. My only thought was to go home . I lived about 1/2 mile from school. The roads were impassible of course. Everyone walking around. A train had blown off it's tracks and divided the city in half. I made it home luckily my parents had minor damage but they were ok. This story could go on and on but you get the idea... It was a living hell for the next few weeks. Many friends were killed and injured.
I feel ya,I talked to guy who was in it and I was awestruck!
Quoting kwgirl:
It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL
I need to get down there soon,I love Key West!
Quoting overwash12:
I need to get down there soon,I love Key West!

Great slower time to come down is now before Christmas or after New Years before season cranks up in Feb.
Quoting kwgirl:
It may not make it down here. But I'm hoping for at least a 10 degree drop. Any more and I'll have to break out my close toed shoes and sweat shirt. That's my winter wear!LOL


Lol. Sounds like us around here. :)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Oooooh...So for every ounce of snow the GFS gives out, the ECMWF gives out a bigger severe wx chance:




James Spann is not happy about any of this :)

Cold core upper low; weatherman's woe. One week from today. Let's see if it holds up.
The GFS is running. I am want see if it still has teo severe weather outbreaks..The goys at the SPC had this to say this morning... DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.

..KERR.. 12/11/2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
My weirdest weather event would have to be the relentless freezing rain in January 1998. It literally freezing rained for 5-6 days. To make things worse, it was followed by a long cold period. Widespread total accumulations of 2-5 inches of ice in my area cut power for 3-4 weeks. It was amazing to see up to 4 inches of ice on sidewalks, streets, trees, and... well, everything!


Image credit: Wikipedia
Quoting kwgirl:

Great slower time to come down is now before Christmas or after New Years before season cranks up in Feb.
I think it got down to 48 back in 72,everybody was freezing! No Heat!
Quoting overwash12:
What is the weirdest weather event you have been in? This is for everybody including you,Nea. Tell us your brief encounter!


Jan 1977, snow here in the Tampa area. Got about 1.5".
It also got down to 42F in Key West at some point in 2010, the all-time record low is 41F. It even reached 48F in Havana, Cuba a few weeks ago on a morning that was 45F here.

I wish that cold front would hurry up and get here. The cooler than normal late October and November has left me not used to this warm, sticky weather. I like the "clean, crisp" feeling of winter.

Quoting FtMyersgal:
It is currently 76 in Fort Myers. Just heard a very strange sound for December. A big clapp of thunder!
Hope some nice rains are on the way finally



One clap of thunder? We had thousands of them last night here around the Tampa Bay area, literally. That cluster of thunderstorm last night at one point was producing around 5700 lightning strikes per hour, that's crazy for December lol.
Quoting Jedkins01:



One clap of thunder? We had thousands of them last night here around the Tampa Bay area, literally. That cluster of thunderstorm last night at one point was producing around 5700 lightning strikes per hour, that's crazy for December lol.




We're next door, Jedkins.

Link