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Hurricane Sandra Heads for Mexican Coast; Icing, Flooding Hit Southern Plains

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:36 PM GMT on November 27, 2015

After becoming the latest major hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere, a weakening Hurricane Sandra remained on track Friday for a history-making landfall early Saturday on the coast of Mexico’s Sinaloa state. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Las Islas Marias and for Mexico’s Pacific coast from Altata to San Blas, including the Mazatlan area. Sandra will be a fast-decaying storm by that point, but even in that condition, it should be a record-setter: no tropical cyclone on record has made landfall so late in the year on either the Atlantic or Pacific coast of Mexico. The current record-holder is Tara (Nov. 12, 1961).


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared satellite image of Hurricane Sandra as of 10:37 am EST Friday, November 27, 2015.

Sandra peaked at Category 4 strength early on Thanksgiving Day (November 26), with top sustained winds briefly hitting an eye-popping 145 mph. The previous record-latest major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere was an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1934 that held on to Category 3 status until 00 UTC November 24. Sandra is also now the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific (previous record: Hurricane Kenneth on November 22, 2011) or the Atlantic (previous record: "Wrong Way" Lenny on November 18, 1999.) Sandra’s peak winds had decreased to 85 knots (100 mph) by the time of the 11 AM EST Friday advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Wind shear has picked up dramatically over Sandra’s track, giving the storm a comma shape more akin to a hybrid or subtropical cyclone (see Figure 1), but Sandra has managed to maintain a small, intense convective core while picking up forward speed. Well before landfall, the strong shear is expected to push Sandra’s mid-level circulation ahead of its low-level center, hastening the storm’s demise.


Figure 2. Multisensor-observed precipitation for the 24-hour period ending at 6:00 am CST Friday, November 27, 2015. Image credit: NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Record Thanksgiving Day rains--and more to come
A sprawling upper-level low in the southwest U.S. teamed up with unusually rich Gulf moisture (record amounts for the time of year in some locations) to make for a very soggy Thanksgiving over much of the central U.S. Factoring in the various year-to-year dates of Thanksgiving Day, Thursday qualified as the wettest Thanksgiving Day on record by an ample margin for several cities with century-plus periods of record, including:

Wichita, KS (1.66”, old record 0.81” in 1977)
Milwaukee, WI (1.55”, old record 0.98” in 1968)
Madison, WI (1.19”, old record 1.06” in 1879)
Rockford, IL (1.51”, old record 0.81” in 1918)
Kansas City, MO (1.61”, old record 1.19” in 1896)
[Thanks to Michael Butler, The Weather Channel, for these statistics]

Some of the heaviest rains struck the Dallas-Fort Worth area, where at least two motorists were killed in overnight flooding. The year 2015 is now officially the wettest on record for the nation’s fourth largest metropolitan area. From Thursday afternoon through 8:53 AM CST Friday, the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Airport received 4.51” of rain, pushing their year-to-date total to 55.26” with five weeks still left in the year. The previous annual record was 53.54,” set in 1991. Weather records in the DFW area began at downtown Fort Worth in 1898. A few localized areas in southeast Oklahoma and east Texas have racked up more than 70” of rain this year, with more than 80” in places between Houston and Beaumont. Baytown picked up 90.21” from January through October, notching more than 5” in every month except February.

Moisture and energy from Hurricane Sandra will be flowing over Texas this weekend, adding to the multiday deluge now under way. Various flood and flash flood watches and warnings are in effect from north Texas to southwest Illinois, with Arkansas in line for especially heavy rain falling over rugged, flood-prone terrain. Further northwest, ice storm warnings remain in effect from far eastern New Mexico to parts of south central Kansas, with ice accumulations of more than half an inch possible in some areas. Some roadway icing is expected, but with air temperatures staying close to freezing in many areas, the biggest hazard of this prolonged event may be from ice-encrusted tree limbs and power lines.

Whether or not you’re traveling this weekend, take care and stay safe!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane Flood Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sandra Funktop Loop

Thanks for the Update Gentlemen,
Now there's three Russian blogs.

EEEEEK!


Re: The growing Ice storm in Southern Plains (Add: Also noted into KS and TX panhandle since yesterday)...

Bogus surface analysis for 0600 today from WPC - 41F in near OKC! Cannot find an official observed temp over 40F since 6 pm 11/26, Thanksgiving at OKC - not at Will Rogers or Wiley Post, or the Spencer mesonet station (E OKC). Where the heck is the WPC 41F data coming from? Satellites?


Now there's FIVE!!!

Quintuple-EEEEK!!
Hi aqua,
Some bot blogs I saw late last night or wee hours today, I forget which, got removed. Whatever language it is, looks like wu's now well into in the second act of "Return of the Bots."

(Ps. Sorry, admin. Too scared to open the bot blogs and flag them.)
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Sandra Funktop Loop




The shear is making it look more like a comet than a hurricane. :P

It will be interesting to see what all that moisture does when it gets to the US.
Quoting 3. aquak9:

Now there's three Russian blogs.

EEEEEK!



is there a mouse?
Houston is the nation's 4th largest metropolitan area, not Dallas/Ft. Worth.
Leaves are on the trees unusually late this year. Haven't noticed much color change at all. I remember Thanksgiving week being the height of fall for this locale.

Getting below normal here, normal is between 70/44 and 68/43 for this period. Was 48.1 this AM
Quoting 10. bappit:

Leaves are on the trees unusually late this year. Haven't noticed much color change at all. I remember Thanksgiving week being the height of fall for this locale.


Here in DC they're about 75% down as of Thanksgiving.
Quoting 5. aquak9:

Now there's FIVE!!!

Quintuple-EEEEK!!


Don't be so quick to judge, doggie. pratorgabol and I have shared many a link for Russian brides and designer-label leather purses. He is a valuable member of this community.
dagnabbit beell - I swear I'd throw a pie at you if I could throw that far. A raisin pie.

Now there's SEVEN of them.

(wait- did you say designer label purses?)

brb!
THEY'RE CLOSED FOR COMMENTS!

What good is a Russian blog if it's closed?

How will I practice my ру́сский язы́к if I can't even post?

Мне нужен жену!!!



интересный
Quoting 14. aquak9:

dagnabbit beell - I swear I'd throw a pie at you if I could throw that far. A raisin pie.

Now there's SEVEN of them.

(wait- did you say designer label purses?)

brb!


lol! Have a good 'un, doggie.

I didn't actually click on any...copied the little visible snippet in the "Latest Entry" column of the blog roll and pasted into Google Translator.
Thanks for the update on Sandra.
Its good news for the people at landfall that the winds have dropped, though the rain will certainly not be over welcome.

Interesting you comment at "10. bappit," about the leaves still being on the trees at thanksgiving.
I noticed last Tuesday the 24th in the Manchester UK area that a lot of the leaves were still on the trees and some were still green just starting to turn yellow.
We used to reckon in the north of England that most of the leaves would have fallen by bonfire night the 5th of November, so leaves are running about 19 days late for falling.

Sothern Spain is as dry as a bone and the forecast is for sunshine and about 20/C up until at least next weekend the 5th of December. Plenty of leaves still on the trees here of course. The olive pickers are pleased they are not working in mud this year. We had our rainy spell a month ago and now its like mid summer without the heat or daylight.
Wow, now there's eleven of'm. Downright creepy.
Quoting 9. Greg01:

Houston is the nation's 4th largest metropolitan area, not Dallas/Ft. Worth.


No, Houston is #5, Dallas is #4 and beats Houston by a half million people.

Link
Quoting 7. Xyrus2000:



The shear is making it look more like a comet than a hurricane. :P

It will be interesting to see what all that moisture does when it gets to the US.
Possibly some moisture being sucked off Sandra now and into the next couple days. She will soon separate from her midlevel. Apparently not a whole lot of moisture from Sandra as a TD or remnants will reach US in an organized manner - if we are to believe today's WPC QPF products. Their 5-day (as posted in previous blog here) and 7-day QPFs can be deceptive in that one must look specifically upon which days the precip is anticipated and in what quantities it is anticipated to fall day-by-day and in 6-hr time periods.

Sunday, Nov 29, 2015 0600 cdt to Monday Nov 30, 2015 0600 cdt
(Present system exiting stage right; not Sandra)

Monday 0600 cdt to Wed 0600 cdt


Wednesday 0600 cdt to Fri 0600 cdt


Anyone truly interested in following the reality of current US weather might want to bookmark
NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

Couple models on what's hoppening with Sandra...
The HWRF model's PWAT 48hrs out. Image is a link to the model run

image credit: tropicaltidbits.com (Thank you, Levi!)

Latest GFS model run here as posted on tropicaltidbits, the way I read it (Please correct me if I'm wrong.)
shows little to no "organized" precip from Sandra remnants coming into US.
love love love to you, kay?

:)
Quoting 13. beell:



Don't be so quick to judge, doggie. pratorgabol and I have shared many a link for Russian brides and designer-label leather purses. He is a valuable member of this community.
Never would have taken bl as someone who's into designer purses.
;P
Quoting 19. PlazaRed:

Thanks for the update on Sandra.
Its good news fro the people at landfall that the winds have dropped, though the rain will certainly not be over welcome.

Interesting you comment at "10. bappit," about the leaves still being on the trees at thanksgiving.
I noticed last Tuesday the 24th in the Manchester UK area that a lot of the leaves were still on the trees and some were still green just starting to turn yellow.
We used to reckon in the north of England that most of the leaves would have fallen by bonfire night the 5th of November, so leaves are running about 19 days late for falling.

Sothern Spain is as dry as a bone and the forecast is for sunshine and about +20/C up until at least next weekend the 5th of December. Plenty of leaves still on the trees here of course. The olive pickers are pleased they are not working in mud this year. We had our rainy spell a month ago and now its like mid summer without the heat or daylight.


Well, it's not only been mild (only had 2 nights with heavy frost a few nights ago, and before that, been well warm) and even more so, been a huge lack of storms with strong wind. Was actually a myriad of colors and a lot of autumn leaves all through October, until we finally did get a windy storm, was nice :)
Sandra~ click pic for loop. Neat seeing the bands separated at the various levels from shear.


Quoting 6. Barefootontherocks:

Hi aqua,
Some bot blogs I saw late last night or wee hours today, I forget which, got removed. Whatever language it is, looks like wu's now well into in the second act of "Return of the Bots."

(Ps. Sorry.... Too scared to open the bot blogs and flag them.)

It's okay, they are coming too fast for flagging. That isn't human but it is in Russian. It's online movie spam. Thank a mod the blog index isn't over filled with it..it's ridiculous.
CMC has it also dec 6th,might be a good coastal storm,too early to tell right now...........
Euro keeps it well off the coastline......................................... ..........
Quoting 26. Skyepony:

Sandra~ click pic for loop. Neat seeing the bands separated at the various levels from shear.



It's okay, they are coming too fast for flagging. That isn't human but it is in Russian. It's online movie spam. Thank a mod the blog index isn't over filled with it..it's ridiculous.
Greetings Skye...Looks fairly strong..Hope the people know this might have a bit more wind than expected at landfall.
Quoting 26. Skyepony:It's okay, they are coming too fast for flagging. That isn't human but it is in Russian. It's online movie spam. Thank a mod the blog index isn't over filled with it..it's ridiculous.

You could get a Turkish mod to shoot them down! ;-}
just FYi..there is active shooter in Colorado right now..unclear whats going on or any hostages per CNN
I wanted to share something that happened here in Middle TN last night. It was a crystal clear , with no clouds, but this beauteous halo around the moon. There were 4 stars in the shape of a diamond directly north south east and west. They were equidistant and symmetrical. To the west of this, the constellation Orion, almost completely engulfed by the halo, with only the two southern stars Rigel and Saife just out side of it. One of the coolest things I ever saw. Good wind blowing , making it more interesting...This is not the photo I took last night, but is similar...I must note that the night sky was much clearer, there was no haze..

Quoting 34. hydrus:

I wanted to share something thatb happened here in Middle TN last night. It was a crystal clear , with no clouds, but this beauteous halo around the moon. There were 4 stars in the shape of a diamond direcly north south east and west. They were equidistant and symmetrical. Ton the west of this, the constellation Orion, almost completely engulfed by the halo, with only the two southern stars Rigel and Saife just out side of it. One of the coolest things I ever saw. Good wind blowing , making it more interesting...This is not the photo I took last night, but is similar..


I didn't see any Halo around the moon here Hydrus but the huge full moon seen last night by my house was surely beautiful,not a cloud in the sky to hide it either.
I suppose that going out on a cat 4 for the eastern Pacific is quite an eye opener and a fitting end to the season! (Then again the season might not be finished yet!)
sort of a bit of quitting while you are on top and wining.

Now its coming round to the time for El Niño along with all the other surprises that are in store for us!

At the other end of the weather scale I note that the Arctic sea ice is not expanding very rapidly right now and in fact is running backwards today.

Link
Quoting 35. LargoFl:

I didn't see any Halo around the moon here Hydrus but the huge full moon seen last night by my house was surely beautiful,not a cloud in the sky to hide it either.


In order to get a halo, you need high altitude ice crystals. If there's thin cirrus around, then there's good odds of seeing a halo on the Moon. Same thing can happen to the Sun at day.

@Hyrdrus, My mother loves to take pictures of the Moon with a halo, one of the easiest to photograph.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and Mr Henson!

Off and on showers yesterday and overnight at my abode in the Soo Cal mountains of San Diego County. Mostly light rain but about 1/2" total so far. Every bit helps.
Quoting 11. PedleyCA:


Getting below normal here, normal is between 70/44 and 68/43 for this period. Was 48.1 this AM


A bit nippy indeed! Down to 36 at my place!
And 1/2" rain last 2 days.


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 27 Nov 12:31 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 27 Nov 12:20 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
27 Nov 12:20 pm PST 44 34 69 S 5G09 OK
27 Nov 12:10 pm PST 44 34 68 SE 7G11 OK
27 Nov 12:00 pm PST 43 34 70 E 2G06 OK
27 Nov 11:50 am PST 43 35 72 SE 4G07 OK
27 Nov 11:40 am PST 43 36 75 ESE 4G07 OK
27 Nov 11:30 am PST 42 35 77 ESE 4G07 OK
27 Nov 11:20 am PST 42 35 77 E 5G09 OK
27 Nov 11:10 am PST 43 36 76 SE 4G09 OK
27 Nov 11:00 am PST 42 35 77 S 4G07 OK
27 Nov 10:50 am PST 42 36 79 S 4G07 OK
27 Nov 10:40 am PST 42 36 80 S 5G08 OK
27 Nov 10:30 am PST 42 36 80 S 6G10 OK
27 Nov 10:20 am PST 42 36 80 S 5G08 OK
27 Nov 10:10 am PST 42 36 78 S 6G10 OK
27 Nov 10:00 am PST 42 36 78 SSE 5G09 OK
27 Nov 9:50 am PST 42 36 79 SE 6G09 OK
27 Nov 9:40 am PST 42 38 84 ESE 4G08 OK
27 Nov 9:30 am PST 41 37 85 E 4G08 OK
27 Nov 9:20 am PST 41 37 87 ESE 5G07 OK
27 Nov 9:10 am PST 40 38 91 ESE 5G06 OK
27 Nov 9:00 am PST 40 37 90 ESE 6G09 OK
27 Nov 8:50 am PST 40 37 88 ESE 6G09 OK
27 Nov 8:40 am PST 40 36 84 ESE 5G08 OK
27 Nov 8:30 am PST 41 37 85 ESE 3G05 OK
27 Nov 8:20 am PST 41 39 94 E 1G02 OK
27 Nov 8:10 am PST 39 38 97 ENE 1G02 OK
27 Nov 8:00 am PST 38 37 97 NW 1G02 OK
27 Nov 7:50 am PST 37 36 98 W 2G04 OK
27 Nov 7:40 am PST 36 35 98 WNW 4G06 OK
Appears to be decoupling..

.
Quoting 41. Greg01:


Wrong, but whatever you wish.
Houston is the 4th most populous city in the United States, coming in several places ahead of the city of Dallas. However, the Dallas/Ft. Worth metropolitan area is more populous than the Houston metro area.

FWIW, I've lived and worked in both areas, and remain unimpressed with either. ;-)
Quoting 44. hydrus:



On this image chart it looks like California has a force field around it to prevent the intrusion of any precipitation.
The Rain totals on those small islands to the east of Sandra must be insane.
Quoting 42. Neapolitan:

Houston is the 4th most populous city in the United States, coming in several places ahead of the city of Dallas. However, the Dallas/Ft. Worth metropolitan area is more populous than than the Houston metro area.

FWIW, I've lived and worked in both areas, and remain unimpressed with either. ;-)


I could add a few more cities to that list, but I will be nice.
It would take a lot of money (big time money) to get me to live there.

Sorry if that offends anyone living in those areas.

The main positive for me was the severe weather in north central Texas and Oklahoma. I did enjoy chasing tornadoes/severe thunderstorms, when I lived in Oklahoma.



I live on Earth, with my neighbors.

Home is Home..,and anyone who knocks where another Human lives, is what they appear to be.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...WRN/NRN OK...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 271949Z - 280145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM
NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS. FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL
AVERAGE .05 INCHES PER HOUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...BROAD CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION PERSISTS
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. IN THE
ABSENCE OF A NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WARM ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CORES.

THERMODYNAMICALLY...STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL ENSURE MELTING FROM
HIGHER LEVELS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH APPEARS INADEQUATE FOR
MEANINGFUL ICE PELLET GENERATION. FOR THIS REASON FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WINTRY THREAT FOR REGIONS SUB-FREEZING.

FREEZING LINE HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE DAY BUT THERE ARE SUBTLE
INDICATIONS THAT A VERY WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OK AND A
SWD SHIFT TO THE 32F LINE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST HRRR MODEL IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS IDEA AND MUCH OF THE
GREATER OKC METRO AREA SHOULD BE BELOW FREEZING BY 6PM. LATEST
THINKING IS THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY ZONE OF
FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING FROM WEST OF TUL INTO SWRN OK. RAIN
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK THIS EVENING
AND SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS THAT DIP TO NEAR 30F
THROUGH MID EVENING.

..DARROW.. 11/27/2015
Quoting 42. Neapolitan:

Houston is the 4th most populous city in the United States, coming in several places ahead of the city of Dallas. However, the Dallas/Ft. Worth metropolitan area is more populous than the Houston metro area.

FWIW, I've lived and worked in both areas, and remain unimpressed with either. ;-)


Houston has Johnson Space Center. The people who work there have always impressed me (and at JPL in California).
Someone help me out here. NE FL has had an onshore flow for several days with an occasional passing shower moving through off the ATL. I had a brief shower dump .05" in the gauge earlier this afternoon. I checked the WU radar a couple of hours ago and noticed a nice blob making a beeline towards me. I got all excited like Chris Farley in a scene from Tommy Boy thinking I may have a chance at a more robust shower. Well, it's here - except it's not. What is this? First image is a saved radar which has me in the "rain". The second is a pic I took at the same time looking ENE. (Yes, the queen palm needs pruning.)

Edit: It does not resemble chaff from what I've seen in the past.



Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F
6:00 AM FST November 28 2015
==========================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (997 hPa) located at 13.4S 175.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 14 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Convection remains persistent. Organization has improved in the past 24 hours with band wrapping onto the system from north. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the north and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap yields DT 2.5, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked the system and move it east-southeast with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=============
12 HRS 14.3S 173.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.5S 172.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 18.2S 170.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
Quoting 26. Skyepony:

Sandra~ click pic for loop. Neat seeing the bands separated at the various levels from shear.



It's okay, they are coming too fast for flagging. That isn't human but it is in Russian. It's online movie spam. Thank a mod the blog index isn't over filled with it..it's ridiculous.
(Ps. Sorry, admin. Too scared to open the bot blogs and flag them.)
I don't get what made you eliminated "admin" from my comment, Skye. I consider mods admin. I used to flag bot blogs, but no more. Bots've become too clever and potent. Eleven bot blogs - out of about 36 (?) - on the front page this morning. Are you saying there were many more that had already been removed? If so, I do thank you or whoever removed the (additional) fakers.

And, if I were in your shoes, rather than thanks, I'd ask for a paycheck.
Coal CEO Thanks Lamar Smith, Asks Him to Expand Probe of Climate Scientists

In recent remarks Robert E. Murray, the chief executive officer of Murray Energy, the largest privately-held coal mining company in America, enthusiastically praised Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Tex., the chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, for leading an investigation into prominent climate scientists and environmental officials.

Murray, speaking at a gathering in Austin last week for global warming deniers organized by the Texas Public Policy Foundation, said he wanted to “congratulate” Smith on his subpoena of Kathryn Sullivan, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Murray then declared that the American Meteorology Association and Union of Concerned Scientists, two private nonprofits that serve the scientific community, also “need to be investigated.”

“They’re crony capitalists, they’re making a fortune off of you the taxpayer,” said Murray, who stood up to praise the Texas congressman again on the next day of the conference. After receiving the second round of compliments, Smith thanked the coal executive and took a seat next to him.

Watch Murray’s remarks below:


Link
Quoting 48. Patrap:

I live on Earth, with my neighbors.

Home is Home..,and anyone who knocks where another Human lives, is what they appear to be.


It's a good thing I wasn't knocking where another human lives, but rather knocking a place where I lived. That's still allowable here in the land of the free, I think.
Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:



Houston has Johnson Space Center. The people who work there have always impressed me (and at JPL in California).
I've visited both (my father worked for NASA back in the day). There are great and impressive people in either place, if you ask me.

Of course, my comment wasn't about the people in either Dallas or Houston--I have family and friends in both--but rather the cities themselves. I was born in Los Angeles, and I've worked and/or lived in and around a number of large US cities--Denver, Colorado Springs, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Cleveland, Columbus, Miami, Tampa, Birmingham, San Francisco, Kansas City, St. Louis, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio--and can avow that every place has its positives and its negatives, its advantages and disadvantages, its pluses and its minuses. To me, some have more of the latter and fewer of the former, though of course, YMMV...
Quoting 21. Astrometeor:



No, Houston is #5, Dallas is #4 and beats Houston by a half million people.

Link
They're close enough for the ranking not to really matter. The interesting stats are that both are in the top five for america's fattest cities
Murray is a criminal and Kathy Sullivan a American Hero,...

R. Rep Lamar Smith is a Political Weapon that will self extinguish in time.

Reality does dat to phools.

Also, Murray is under a Judges order to give speeches to His workers.

BENWOOD - An administrative law judge has ordered Murray Energy Corp. Chairman, President and CEO Robert E. Murray to give speeches at five West Virginia mines to make sure his workers know their rights when it comes to filing complaints with the federal Mine Safety and Health Administration.

- See more at: http://www.heraldstaronline.com/page/content.detai l/id/636323/Murray-to-appeal-order-to-give-speeche s.html?nav=5010#sthash.rzqDJZ8w.dpuf
Nea, that was for #47, the post before mine.

For clarity, I hadnt gotten to yours when I added #48.

So hold the water for the Buffalo.
Some decent rainfall totals for Soo Cal the past 72 hours( at least by Soo Cal standards)

Link
Quoting 50. CybrTeddy:



Houston has Johnson Space Center. The people who work there have always impressed me (and at JPL in California).


Neither hire dummies......that's for sure!
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:

It's a good thing I wasn't knocking where another human lives, but rather knocking a place where I lived. That's still allowable here in the land of the free, I think.I've visited both (my father worked for NASA back in the day). There are great and impressive people in either place, if you ask me.

Of course, my comment wasn't about the people in either Dallas or Houston--I have family and friends in both--but rather the cities themselves. I was born in Los Angeles, and I've worked and/or lived in and around a number of large US cities--Denver, Colorado Springs, Minneapolis/St. Paul, Cleveland, Columbus, Miami, Tampa, Birmingham, San Francisco, Kansas City, St. Louis, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio--and can avow that every place has its positives and its negatives, its advantages and disadvantages, its pluses and its minuses. To me, some have more of the latter and fewer of the former, though of course, YMMV...
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:


Sfloridacat5
No one said anything about people. We were referring to the places (how scenic, recreation, pollution, traffic, etc). Just how enjoyable it was to live there.
This had absolutely nothing to do with the people there (which were very nice) in my case.

Almost anyone that has traveled a lot and lived in many places (me), will tell you which cities/locations they preferred to live in and why. They'll also tell you the cities/locations they didn't like and why.

To try to spin it into something else is very silly.






I knocked on my own door once, but I wasn't home.

StAug- I think it's a chemtrail.
Microsoft's Bill Gates to start multi-billion-dollar clean technology initiative: Report

NEW YORK/PARIS: Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates will launch a multi-billion-dollar clean energy research and development initiative with heads of state on Monday, the opening day of the U.N. climate change summit in Paris, the French government said Friday.

Gates and a group of developing and developed countries will launch the Clean Tech Initiative, in which countries will commit to doubling their clean energy technology research and development budgets by 2020 and private investors ..


Read more at:

Link
Quoting 45. PlazaRed:


On this image chart it looks like California has a force field around it to prevent the intrusion of any precipitation.

Return of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge?
Quoting 64. ACSeattle:


Return of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge?


Really?
66. vis0

Quoting 48. Patrap:

I live on Earth, with my neighbors.

Home is Home..,and anyone who knocks where another Human lives, is what they appear to be.


Knock knock?

Whose here?
Quoting 66. vis0:


Knock knock?

Whose here?



Orange.
Dakster- you're supposta say Banana
Quoting 68. aquak9:

Dakster- you're supposta say Banana


Banana Who?
Finally new launch date of 17/01/2016

Jason-3 is the fourth mission in U.S.-European series of satellite missions that measure the height of the ocean surface. Scheduled to launch in 2015, the mission will extend the time series of ocean surface topography measurements (the hills and valleys of the ocean surface) begun by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite mission in 1992 and continuing through the currently operating Jason-1 (launched in 2001) and OSTM/Jason-2 (launched in 2008) missions. These measurements provide scientists with critical information about circulation patterns in the ocean and about both global and regional changes in sea level and the climate implications of a warming world.

The primary instrument on Jason-3 is a radar altimeter. The altimeter will measure sea-level variations over the global ocean with very high accuracy (as 1.3 inches or 3.3 centimeters, with a goal of achieving 1 inch or 2.5 centimeters). Continual, long-term, reliable data of changes in ocean surface topography will be generated and will be used by scientists and operational agencies (NOAA, European weather agencies, marine operators, etc.) for scientific research and operational oceanography for the benefit of society.

TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 were cooperative missions between NASA and the French space agency, CNES. Additional partners in the Jason-2 mission included NOAA and Eumetsat. Jason-3 continues the international cooperation, with NOAA and Eumetsat leading the efforts, along with partners NASA and CNES.
Jason-3 is the fourth mission in U.S.-European series of satellite missions

holy crap, they finally launched Jason into space.

WOW!!!

Knock knock!!
As forecasted El Nino region 1.2 has been on the rise with Eqitorial Kelvin Wave (EKW) significantly effecting SSTs east of 120 for the last week. 1.2 is now at 2.25. Highest in a long time. Look for NOAA's Monday El Nino update for some surprises. One thing going against the continued heating of 1.2 is the fact that the thermocline associated with the EKW is shallow. So not a lot of heat to keep it going. However heating from atmospheric responses looks to be coming to the rescue. Sorry no visual graphs with my comment - difficult to do on my mobile device.
Latest 3 day Snow and Rain Totals for some Soo Cal areas covered by NWS San Diego. Gentle good soil soaking rains.

Link
Quoting 68. aquak9:

Dakster- you're supposta say Banana


Nanner Nanner Nanner.......Bananner nanner nanner
Quoting 45. PlazaRed:


On this image chart it looks like California has a force field around it to prevent the intrusion of any precipitation.


Been raining off and on for 3 days ay my locale in San Diego County........not copious amounts by any means but good gentle soil/vegetation soaking showers, most totals .25-1.00 are good by Soo Cal standards and will help should heavier El Nino rains come after the first of the year. Sierra's have been getting decent snow this month.......very wet by no means but Cali doing ok for November.......we always want more, but grateful for what we are getting......Ridge Ridge stay away! Come again some other day! Jan Feb being nice and wet with rain and high elevation snow and then March with cold cold wet storms would be ideal so as to keep the snowpack best and let it melt slowly during late spring and summer.......I mean while we wish, may as well ask for the perfect situation!
Hey, late Friday night hello from quite cold Germany. Hope you had a nice and successfull shopping day on your Black Friday - which is invading Europe right now like most of the US stuff, lol. See here what's happening in Denmark, and I bet it will only take a few years that Germany will follow suite ;-)

Moreover, the coming new ice age is a sure thing :-) Just read this:

Most snow patches counted in Scotland's hills since 1994
By Steven McKenzie BBC Scotland Highlands and Islands reporter, BBC, 27 November 2015
Seventy-three patches of snow have survived on Scotland's hills from last winter - the most for 21 years, according to a man who counts them. ...

I wonder whether this is due to the persisting cold blob in the northern North Atlantic this year (and I hope it's not a sign of a weakening gulf stream due to CC which would chillily affect continental Europe sooner or later, doh ;-)
Meanwhile glaciers in the Himalaja area got very different problems:

Lakes expanding 'dangerously' in Everest glacier
By Navin Singh Khadka Environment reporter, BBC World Service, 27 November 2015
Lakes that have been forming near Mount Everest could threaten settlements downstream if they overflow. Ponds on the surface of the Khumbu glacier in the Himalayas have expanded and joined together to form larger bodies of water. Climbers need to cross the glacier, including the treacherous Khumbu Icefall, to climb the mighty peak. The accelerated meltdown of glaciers in the region is causing concern against a backdrop of rising global temperatures. Scientists say the warning is the first of its kind for Khumbu, although other glaciers in the Himalayas have seen an increase in the number of lakes formed. Such newly formed glacial lakes can overflow causing flooding, and with it loss of life and damage downstream.
Disintegrating glaciers: This is the first scientific team to visit the region after the devastating earthquake last April. ...

Whole article see link above.

A lot to discuss at upcoming COP21, for sure. And difficult times ahead for the Parisians:

COP21: Parisians urged to avoid public transport
The Local (France), published: 27 Nov 2015 15:23 GMT+01:00
Police have warned Parisians to avoid public transport this weekend ahead of the COP21 climate summit, just days after suggesting motorists leave their cars at home too.
Perhaps it's best to just stay home this weekend.
Paris police issued a statement on Friday urging people to "avoid public transport unless it's necessary" on both Sunday and Monday, after already having warned motorists to leave their cars at home on both days. The reason? Because there will likely be extreme congestion citywide thanks to all the roads that will be locked down as world leaders are taken to the COP21 climate conference. ...

More details see link above.

Sorry for the long post. But currently there are a lot of new weather and climate news around ...
Quoting 72. VibrantPlanet:

As forecasted El Nio region 1.2 has been on the rise with Eqitorial Kelvin Wave (EKW) significantly effecting SSTs east of 120 for the last week. 1.2 is now at 2.25. Highest in a long time. Look for NOAA's Monday El Nio update for some surprises. One thing going against the continued heating of 1.2 is the fact the the thermocline associated with the EKW is shallow. So not a lot of heat to keep it going. However heating from atmospheric responses looks to be coming to the rescue. Sorry no visual graphs with my comment - difficult to do on my mobile device.


I say keep them Kelvin waves uh coming! Nothing wrong with re-enforcing shots of warm water to keep El Nino going until prime time setup for California, like top out in Dec-January-Feb. This may happen if the tradewinds stay bassackwards as they have been. No guarantees on double rain for California but let's give us all the things that may allow it to happen. An El Nino without severe flooding would be at the top of the list. Get 2x rain but no major problems.......one can ask and hope anyway.
I hope all you good folks had a great Thanksgiving! Great time for a festive time with family and friends! Had some great eats and good conversations. Hope a great time was had by all!
Quoting 71. aquak9:

Knock knock!!

Knock knock ...
Refugees In Greece Brace For A Cold Winter Ahead
Refugees will face additional challenges as the harsh weather sets in.
The Huffington Post, Posted: 11/27/2015 04:36 PM EST

The Latest: Austria reports sharp drop in refugees coming in; blames weather, Balkan borders
Associated Press, Nov. 27, 2015

Six children die as migrant boats sink off Turkey: report
By AFP, Published: November 27, 2015

Syrian refugees celebrate first Thanksgiving
Posted: Nov 27, 2015 5:21 PM
RICHARDSON (WFAA) - Syrian refugee families now living in North Texas met for a Thanksgiving Day meal in Richardson. "This was the first time…the first time," said Nibil Kalo.
It was many firsts for most of these families. First time eating turkey, first time eating mashed potatoes -- but most importantly, the first time seeing everyone together. For Joan, a young civil engineering student, he is happier to see the company than what's on his plate. "Here it's my first time. I come in here and I'm so happy. ...
Pontoon Boat went down in Manasquan Inlet, NJ today. Very calm conditions with the exception of a deceiving long period groundswell. That can be a very tricky inlet. I grew up there. Long period swells are especially bad because they seemingly pop up out of nowhere. Especially hazardous when using a pontoon boat on the open ocean. :-(

My buddy was surfing and was one of the first responders.

Link
Looking like freezing rain intensity picking up OKC trailing southwestward.

Quoting 4. Barefootontherocks:



Re: The growing Ice storm in Southern Plains (Add: Also noted into KS and TX panhandle since yesterday)...

Bogus surface analysis for 0600 today from WPC - 41F in near OKC! Cannot find an official observed temp over 40F since 6 pm 11/26, Thanksgiving at OKC - not at Will Rogers or Wiley Post, or the Spencer mesonet station (E OKC). Where the heck is the WPC 41F data coming from? Satellites?



Quoting 28. LargoFl:


And here it is, the 18z run, just six hours later than the one you posted. The 1003 mb low has now been replaced by 1042 mb high. All this in just six hours. The performance of the GFS and CMC has been so bad predicting storms in the Northeast over the last two weeks that it is really a waste of time even worrying about what happens at 200 hours.

Quoting 82. HaoleboySurfEC:

Pontoon Boat went down in Manasquan Inlet, NJ today. Very calm conditions with the exception of a deceiving long period groundswell. That can be a very tricky inlet. I grew up there. Long period swells are especially bad because they seemingly pop up out of nowhere. Especially hazardous when using a pontoon boat on the open ocean. :-(

My buddy was surfing and was one of the first responders.

Link
My first thought was why would anyone take a pontoon boat on the open ocean, a question echoed by the locals in the news story. The fact the boat occupants were all male may have something to do with it.
My first thought was why would anyone take a pontoon boat on the open ocean, a question echoed by the locals in the news story. The fact the boat occupants were all male may have something to do with it.

Because women would find something better to do with their time? :)
Quoting 85. sar2401:

My first thought was why would anyone take a pontoon boat on the open ocean, a question echoed by the locals in the news story. The fact the boat occupants were all male may have something to do with it.


Years ago where I used to live an idiot on a works outing took a sailing boat out into the ocean in a Gale Force 9 storm, as soon as they cleared the piers it was capsized and 2 people also died.
Quoting 76. barbamz:

Hey, late Friday night hello from quite cold Germany. Hope you had a nice and successfull shopping day on your Black Friday - which is invading Europe right now like most of the US stuff, lol. Meanwhile glaciers in the Himalaja area got very different problems:

Lakes expanding 'dangerously' in Everest glacier
By Navin Singh Khadka Environment reporter, BBC World Service, 27 November 2015
Lakes that have been forming near Mount Everest could threaten settlements downstream if they overflow. Ponds on the surface of the Khumbu glacier in the Himalayas have expanded and joined together to form larger bodies of water. Climbers need to cross the glacier, including the treacherous Khumbu Icefall, to climb the mighty peak. The accelerated meltdown of glaciers in the region is causing concern against a backdrop of rising global temperatures. Scientists say the warning is the first of its kind for Khumbu, although other glaciers in the Himalayas have seen an increase in the number of lakes formed. Such newly formed glacial lakes can overflow causing flooding, and with it loss of life and damage downstream.
Disintegrating glaciers: This is the first scientific team to visit the region after the devastating earthquake last April. ...

Whole article see link above.

A lot to discuss at upcoming COP21, for sure. And difficult times ahead for the Parisians:

COP21: Parisians urged to avoid public transport
The Local (France), published: 27 Nov 2015 15:23 GMT 01:00
Police have warned Parisians to avoid public transport this weekend ahead of the COP21 climate summit, just days after suggesting motorists leave their cars at home too.
Perhaps it's best to just stay home this weekend.
Paris police issued a statement on Friday urging people to "avoid public transport unless it's necessary" on both Sunday and Monday, after already having warned motorists to leave their cars at home on both days. The reason? Because there will likely be extreme congestion citywide thanks to all the roads that will be locked down as world leaders are taken to the COP21 climate conference. ...

More details see link above.

Sorry for the long post. But currently there are a lot of new weather and climate news around ...
Hi Barb. A quote from that story -

"We hear such alarmist reports every now and then," said Ang Kami Sherpa, the head of a Sherpa team known as ice fall doctors who fix the route on the Khumbu Icefall for climbers every year. The ponds will come and go but as long as we keep our gods on the mountains happy, we have nothing to fear."

My Sherpa trekking guide expressed almost exactly those same sentiments when I talked to him about the issue. Sherpas believe that the Himalayas are where all life started, and the mountains are much more powerful than any human influence. As longs as Sherpas, and other who visit the mountains, bring gifts (we planted some trees) and treat the mountains with respect, the Sherpa, first people of the world, as they believe it, will always be here. He has a home in Namche Bazaar. This is the largest town in the Khumbu, and will be one of the first destroyed when that superglacial lake bursts. I hope he and his gods are right.

Forgot to add that Paris may turn out like Los Angeles during the Olympics. There were so many warnings about not driving and staying home that that's just what happened. I never drove so far and so fast on L.A. freeways as I did those two weeks. :-)
Quoting 86. aquak9:

My first thought was why would anyone take a pontoon boat on the open ocean, a question echoed by the locals in the news story. The fact the boat occupants were all male may have something to do with it.

Because women would find something better to do with their time? :)
That, plus it's less likely they would be drinking and high fiving as they went out to challenge the ocean. I can't think of a single boating rescue we did where the occupants were all females.
Quoting 87. MahFL:



Years ago where I used to live an idiot on a works outing took a sailing boat out into the ocean in a Gale Force 9 storm, as soon as they cleared the piers it was capsized and 2 people also died.
Going out in those kinds of winds is never wise, but at least a sailboat with a good crew has half a chance on the ocean. A pontoon boat is going to be in trouble in anything about gentle winds.
Quoting 90. sar2401:

Going out in those kinds of winds is never wise, but at least a sailboat with a good crew has half a chance on the ocean. A pontoon boat is going to be in trouble in anything about gentle winds.


You don't go sailing in Force 9 gales.
Quoting 51. StAugustineFL:

Someone help me out here. NE FL has had an onshore flow for several days with an occasional passing shower moving through off the ATL. I had a brief shower dump .05" in the gauge earlier this afternoon. I checked the WU radar a couple of hours ago and noticed a nice blob making a beeline towards me. I got all excited like Chris Farley in a scene from Tommy Boy thinking I may have a chance at a more robust shower. Well, it's here - except it's not. What is this? First image is a saved radar which has me in the "rain". The second is a pic I took at the same time looking ENE. (Yes, the queen palm needs pruning.)

Edit: It does not resemble chaff from what I've seen in the past.




I've noticed this happening with WU radar a lot at my location. There seems to be something wrong with the algorithm used by WU when it interprets the radar image presented by the NWS. The actual NWS radar and radar at another site I use won't show any rain at all. This started happening about a month ago. I presume it's the result of yet another failed "update".
Quoting 91. MahFL:



You don't go sailing in Force 9 gales.
I sure wouldn't launch in a force 9 gale, but I have been caught in one while in the Caribbean. With a good boat and crew, it's survivable. Winds higher than that are survivable, but it's pretty stupid to take on a storm like that voluntarily.
Thoughts and prayers to the victims of today's senseless terrorist attack in Colorado... :/

Miserably hot here in Naples the last few days. I'm used to cooking and baking the Thanksging feast with the windows open and the AC off. But no such luck this year; the heat and humidity have been more like mid September than late November. And with the warm air mass moving southward over the next few weeks, it looks as though we're going to maybe need the summer clothes deep into December...
Quoting 94. Neapolitan:

Thoughts and prayers to the victims of today's senseless terrorist attack in Colorado... :/

Miserably hot here in Naples the last few days. I'm used to cooking and baking the Thanksging feast with the windows open and the AC off. But no such luck this year; the heat and humidity have been more like mid September than late November. And with the warm air mass moving southward over the next few weeks, it looks as though we're going to maybe need the summer clothes deep into December...


Where's the below normal temps and epic El Niño rains?
I am in Mazatlan and I was waiting for the storm tonight. I am just curious as to why it is not even close to here or any where near the projected track. It is not even windy here when the WU forecast still calls for 25-35 MPH winds right now. How did this storm get so far off track and basically hook a hard right? Someone on a previous post said something about it decoupling and I am curious as to what that means for Mazatlan?
Quoting 97. Fmaizner:

I am in Mazatlan and I was waiting for the storm tonight. I am just curious as to why it is not even close to here or any where near the projected track. It is not even windy here when the WU forecast still calls for 25-35 MPH winds right now. Am I missing something?img src="[url=http://postimage.org/][img]http://s20.po stimg.org/xeydh6xpp/Sandra_Track.jpg[/img][/url]
[url=http://postimage.org/]image hosting above 5 mb[/url]">
I have no clue what image you were trying to post since your link didn't work. This is the NHC track and intensity forecast. Sandra is still about 200 miles offshore from Mazatlan and moving at a snails's pace of only 2 mph. It won't get close enough to affect the coast until at least noon today, and maybe later if the storm keeps moving this slowly. Sandra is rapidly falling apart, with winds down to 50 mph. It should continue to weaken and become a depression before landfall. At the rate it's going now, it may end up being no more than a remnant low by the time it gets to you. Matatlan should have some heavy rain and gusty winds for a period, and that may also be extended if the low keeps moving this slowly. All in all, Mazatlan looks like it's dodged a bullet in terms of Sandra being a serious storm.



EDIT: OK, I see your image now. The mid-level circulation has long ago detached from the center. That's the rain and clouds you see on the graphic just to the south of Mazatlan. The weather will turn worse later today as Sandra makes its closest approach. How much rain it still has with it remains to be seen, but wind should not be a major problem.

Well, I see that editing my comment has wrecked the image from the NHC, but you can get it easily enough at the NHC site. There are times I really hate this place.
Quoting 95. Bucsboltsfan:



Where's the below normal temps and epic El Niño rains?
They are over at the STS forecast center. He's hoarding them all for himself. :-)
Quoting 64. ACSeattle:


Return of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge?

Well, "The Blob" of hot water in the North Pacific is still there off the west coast. Alaska Blob Tracker

Meanwhile the weather here in the mid Willamette Valley of Oregon has been cold and clear with highs in the mid 40's and lows in the mid 20's. It's forecast to warm up a bit on Monday to with highs in the high 40's and lows in the high 30's.
Quoting 98. sar2401:

I have no clue what image you were trying to post since your link didn't work. This is the NHC track and intensity forecast. Sandra is still about 200 miles offshore from Mazatlan and moving at a snails's pace of only 2 mph. It won't get close enough to affect the coast until at least noon today, and maybe later if the storm keeps moving this slowly. Sandra is rapidly falling apart, with winds down to 50 mph. It should continue to weaken and become a depression before landfall. At the rate it's going now, it may end up being no more than a remnant low by the time it gets to you. Matatlan should have some heavy rain and gusty winds for a period, and that may also be extended if the low keeps moving this slowly. All in all, Mazatlan looks like it's dodged a bullet in terms of Sandra being a serious storm.



EDIT: OK, I see your image now. The mid-level circulation has long ago detached from the center. That's the rain and clouds you see on the graphic just to the south of Mazatlan. The weather will turn worse later today as Sandra makes its closest approach. How much rain it still has with it remains to be seen, but wind should not be a major problem.

Well, I see that editing my comment has wrecked the image from the NHC, but you can get it easily enough at the NHC site. There are times I really hate this place.


Thank you for the accurate explanation and I think Sandra is going to be dead on arrival. I'm sitting up on the roof right now and we are not getting any rain or wind. I guess when you have a system spinning up this late in November and breaking the record that once it moves north it gets torn apart. I am from Miami and I have never in my 40 years seen anything so rapidly dissipate.
Ice is starting to build on trees and elevated surfaces here in Stillwater, OK. Roads were still clear a couple hours ago. Miserable night for wildlife.
El Niño déjà vu or something new?

This visualization shows side by side comparisons of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies of what is presently happening in 2015 with the Pacific Ocean signal during the famous 1997 El Niño. These 1997 and 2015 El Niño animations were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites. Image credit: NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Link
Quoting 92. sar2401:

I've noticed this happening with WU radar a lot at my location. There seems to be something wrong with the algorithm used by WU when it interprets the radar image presented by the NWS. The actual NWS radar and radar at another site I use won't show any rain at all. This started happening about a month ago. I presume it's the result of yet another failed "update".

Looking at NWS radar for that area, I see a plum of birds, maybe insects. Those rise out of coastal GA, part of them move into FL. Radar picks up alot more than rain, in the last month alot of snowbirds have been moving through your area. You can see NWS change the reflectivity from clear air to what it would get set at to see actual rain showers better. Clear air is really sensitive and will make even insects look like possible rain coming. It'a also NWS not WU that changes the reflectivity.

Radar has been working fine here.
Quoting 104. ColoradoBob1:

El Niño déjà vu or something new?

This visualization shows side by side comparisons of Pacific Ocean sea surface height (SSH) anomalies of what is presently happening in 2015 with the Pacific Ocean signal during the famous 1997 El Niño. These 1997 and 2015 El Niño animations were made from data collected by the TOPEX/Poseidon (1997) and the OSTM/Jason-2 (2015) satellites. Image credit: NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Link



The latest runs of the CFSv2 are showing El-Nino going thru next Summer infact restrengthens. It was this time last year when the CFSv2 began showing El-Nino continuing thru next Summer.
Quoting 97. Fmaizner:

I am in Mazatlan and I was waiting for the storm tonight. I am just curious as to why it is not even close to here or any where near the projected track. It is not even windy here when the WU forecast still calls for 25-35 MPH winds right now. How did this storm get so far off track and basically hook a hard right? Someone on a previous post said something about it decoupling and I am curious as to what that means for Mazatlan?


Because that's where Sandra's LLC is. All the associated convection got ripped away from Sandra's center and displaced several hundred miles to the southeast.

Quoting 105. Skyepony:


Looking at NWS radar for that area, I see a plum of birds, maybe insects. Those rise out of coastal GA, part of them move into FL. Radar picks up alot more than rain, in the last month alot of snowbirds have been moving through your area. You can see NWS change the reflectivity from clear air to what it would get set at to see actual rain showers better. Clear air is really sensitive and will make even insects look like possible rain coming. It'a also NWS not WU that changes the reflectivity.

Radar has been working fine here.


Usually the birds or insects are at sunrise or thereabouts (as your linked radar from KJAX for this morning represents). In my area the "blob" moved through at 4:30'ish in the afternoon and originated well out over the open waters of the Atlantic. It was intermingled with valid precip returns as several areas recorded measurable rain at times during the day - myself included.

Edit: I contacted NWS JAX to see if they can offer an explanation. It's piqued my curiosity.
Quoting 95. Bucsboltsfan:



Where's the below normal temps and epic El Niño rains?


It's not winter yet. Californians were disdaining the effects of El Nino in December 1997. Then came January....
here is what Pat Caldwell says about the upcoming large surf event dec 5th north shore oahu " Models show a low pressure forming near the northern Kurils 12/1 with a ESE track, reaching the dateline with severe gale to hurricane-force winds 12/3. This suggest extra-large WNW to NNW surf for the weekend of 12/5."
Quoting 94. Neapolitan:

Thoughts and prayers to the victims of today's senseless terrorist attack in Colorado... :/

Miserably hot here in Naples the last few days. I'm used to cooking and baking the Thanksging feast with the windows open and the AC off. But no such luck this year; the heat and humidity have been more like mid September than late November. And with the warm air mass moving southward over the next few weeks, it looks as though we're going to maybe need the summer clothes deep into December...


Reminds me of Christmas 1981 in Ft Myers. Midmonth was cold and my mother decided to roast a goose for Christmas. Sitting in sweaters with dry cool air wafting through the house.. seemed like a good idea.

Christmas dawned hot and humid with the patio sweating from high dewpoints and previous chill. We roasted the goose but in heat it was not nearly as appetizing. My mother told stories about that goose for the rest of her life.

The heat held and I remember the San Diego Chargers played the Dolphins in Miami in 80F with dewpoints in the low 70s. Miserable football weather. They won and traveled to Cincinnati. An epic arctic outbreak poured in Jan 10 1982 with temperatues just above -10F in the afternoon and I pictured them transitioning from that horrid Miami heat to that brutal arctic cold!
The below average temps expected in the SE for an El Nino year tend to start by mid December and really get going by mid January.
I feel like El Nino cooling in the South East, when it's a strong El Nino really becomes apparent in February through April. The last major El Nino in the winter of 2010 had such below average Temps for the time of year, it was the only year this Miami native was excited for summer due to cold. Temps were still hitting the 40s regularly in April which isn't unusual for Tallahassee, except the highs were in the 60s and 70s for most of the month.
Quoting 94. Neapolitan:



Miserably hot here in Naples the last few days. I'm used to cooking and baking the Thanksging feast with the windows open and the AC off. But no such luck this year; the heat and humidity have been more like mid September than late November. And with the warm air mass moving southward over the next few weeks, it looks as though we're going to maybe need the summer clothes deep into December...
Miserable??
Yesterday
High 82.8 | Low 65.7 °F
Precip. 0 in

I guess I just love misery then.
All I kept thinking is how glorious it has been all week.
Maybe just differing mindsets i suppose.

Already back from the farmers market where I scored my weekly goodies!!
Now off for a swim and a paddle.
oh how awful....lol


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 28/0932 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI TUNI CENTRE [993HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6 SOUTH 173.7 WEST AT 280600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING ONTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND
29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY A ISSUED
FROM RSMC NADI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.



Loop

Bigger picture

Loop




TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI - LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
104 AM SST SAT NOV 28 2015

UPDATED TO CORRECT TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR

...TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI (03F) CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH...

...NEW INFORMATION...
SWAINS ISLANDS IS NO LONGER UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING THREAT
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED
ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA.
.A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...

.A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANUA.

...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 10 PM SST FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (03P) TUNI
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5S...LONGITUDE 173W...OR ABOUT 150
MILES WEST OF TUTUILA...235 MILES WEST OF MANUA AND 270 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SWAINS. TC TUNI IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH.
CURRENT MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 MPH.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS WHEN DRIVING
DUE TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND FLOODED ROADWAYS.

BE READY TO COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADIO FOR FURTHER WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT THE EOC AT
699-0411.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PAGO PAGO AROUND 3 AM SST SATURDAY...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

ASZ001>003-281545-
TUTUILA-AUNUU-MANUA-SWAINS-
104 AM SST SAT NOV 28 2015

...TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE (03P) TUNI MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 35 TO 50 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDES...
DANGEROUS SWELLS AND SURFS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WEST...SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH SUNDAY. ROADS ALONG THE
COAST ARE LIKELY TO BE COVERED WITH DEBRIS AND SEA WATER FLOODING.

...INLAND FLOODING...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ELEVATE WATER LEVELS AND INUNDATE LOW
LYING AREAS TO FURTHER AGGRAVATE SATURATED GROUNDS.

Pago Pago, America Samoa NWS
Quoting 114. Abacosurf:

Miserable??
Yesterday
High 82.8 | Low 65.7 F
Precip. 0 in

I guess I just love misery then.
All I kept thinking is how glorious it has been all week.
Maybe just differing mindsets i suppose.

Already back from the farmers market where I scored my weekly goodies!!
Now off for a swim and a paddle.
oh how awful....lol


It's been a little warmer than some might like for late November, but no comparison to how it feels during the summer. Yesterday, I was outside for several hours during the heat of the day. I did get a little hot.
But during the summer months, with high temps in the low to mid 90s (heat index 100 degrees), I can't last more than a few minutes outside without jumping in the water.
Quoting 114. Abacosurf:

Miserable??
Yesterday
High 82.8 | Low 65.7 °F
Precip. 0 in

I guess I just love misery then.
Oh, don't get me wrong; I love the heat and humidity. If I didn't, I wouldn't live here. No, I was referring specifically to the 18 hours or so of my "free" time I spent in the kitchen prepping two full large Thanksgiving meals for two large groups. It's just not the same when the house can't be opened to allow the heat and moisture from my five-burner double-oven range, my microwave, and my dishwasher to escape.
Quoting 114. Abacosurf:

Maybe just differing mindsets i suppose.
Maybe. I dunno. Perhaps it's just different when one is serving the meal vs. being served...

Anyway, speaking of: here are my final two pies of this holiday; these will be consumed later today. The one on the left is strawberry/rhubarb, and the other is an insanely rich quadruple chocolate mess that--seriously--requires nearly a dozen eggs, almost half a gallon of cream, and around a pound of various high-end chocolates:



Cold warning from Antarctica's past

If all of it melted, the EAIS would contribute an equivalent of around 50 metres of sea level rise - the vast majority of the total 58 metres that could come from the continent.

A New Zealand-led study published overnight in the journal Nature Communications has now shed further light on this potential.

By studying rocks at different elevations beside the East Antarctic sheet, the research team concluded that a period of rapid glacier thinning occurred in the recent geological past, and persisted for several centuries.


Link
I remember 1997-1998 bring quite the year for N. Cal as well.

More W in that update. See you at Maile Point.

Quoting 110. islander101010:

here is what Pat Caldwell says about the upcoming large surf event dec 5th north shore oahu " Models show a low pressure forming near the northern Kurils 12/1 with a ESE track, reaching the dateline with severe gale to hurricane-force winds 12/3. This suggest extra-large WNW to NNW surf for the weekend of 12/5."
Be interesting to see if it all comes together for some historic snows in the Carolinas Jan and Feb. Just please, no ice.

Quoting 112. ElConando:

The below average temps expected in the SE for an El Nino year tend to start by mid December and really get going by mid January.
Quoting 117. Neapolitan:

Oh, don't get me wrong; I love the heat and humidity. If I didn't, I wouldn't live here. No, I was referring specifically to the 18 hours or so of my "free" time I spent in the kitchen prepping two full large Thanksgiving meals for two large groups. It's just not the same when the house can't be opened to allow the heat and moisture from my five-burner double-oven range, my microwave, and my dishwasher to escape.Maybe. I dunno. Perhaps it's just different when one is serving the meal vs. being served...

Anyway, speaking of: here are my final two pies of this holiday; these will be consumed later today. The one on the left is strawberry/rhubarb, and the other is an insanely rich quadruple chocolate mess that--seriously--requires nearly a dozen eggs, almost half a gallon of cream, and around a pound of various high-end chocolates:






Some nice pies you've got there.
It would be nice to open up the house and let some 70 degree, low humidity air blow through.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 85. sar2401:

My first thought was why would anyone take a pontoon boat on the open ocean, a question echoed by the locals in the news story. The fact the boat occupants were all male may have something to do with it.


I believe it started with "Hey you wanna see somethin'? Hold my beer...". :P
ECMWF brings a storm into Northern California 144hrs out:

GFS showing snow and rain as well in Northern California around 5-6 days out as well!