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Hurricane Rita

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:26 AM GMT on September 20, 2005

It's not official, but it soon will be--Rita is a hurricane. The latest satellite imagery shows a huge and expanding burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops near the center. The latest UW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimate puts Rita as a 80 mph hurricane with a 982 mb central pressure. Radar imagery from Camaguey, Cuba shows a partially formed elliptical eyewall, open to the north. Long range Miami radar shows a large and expanding area of radar echoes approaching Florida. Tropical storm force winds have moved outward from 105 miles from the center at 5pm, to 120 miles at 11pm. Rita is a large, impressive Category 1 hurricane, and growing stronger and larger by the hour. The lower Keys are in for a nasty pounding. This may equal or exceed the most damaging hurricane ever in Key West, which I believe was Category 2 Hurricane Georges in 1998, which brought a 4 - 6 foot storm surge and Category 1 winds to the lower Keys, causing $340 million in damage. Expect roof and moderate structural damage to homes and businesses from Rita. Hundred of mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Large trees and power poles will be toppled. Damage will be at least $1 billion, which will largely be uninsured losses, since many insurance companies won't insure propery in the Keys.

Where will Rita hit?

Take your pick from today's latest model runs:

GFS: TX/LA border
NOGAPS: Brownsville, TX
UKMET: Galveston
GFDL: Galveston

So, the model trend that had taken Rita towards landfall in western Louisiana has now reversed, to Texas' detriment. Tune in tomorrow morning, the NOAA jet is flying its first mission in Rita, a high-altitude synoptic surveilance mission tonight that should greatly aid the model predictions that will be complete in the morning. I won't start believing the models until I see some runs with the NOAA jet data initializing them.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. wpb05
still TS according to NHC
Crap. My cable keeps going out. I hope this isn't a harbinger of things to come.
Stil 70 mph...strange...but NHC is still predicting a Cat. 2 when it passes by Key West...
I WISH THEY WOULD POST ALREADY
lol still no cane. just a ts storm moiveing wnw at 17 with winds of 70 moh and pressure of 991mb
TVwxman, where are you at
No TV just cable in texas LOL
508. wpb05
I think they are waiting for this eyewall to close off before they upgrade it...cause everything else has pointed to a cane for 12 hours now
72kts=74.52mph if you use the 90% rule, why do you think the NHC is reluctant to call it a 'cane?
It's absolutely amazing. I told my producer early this morning that the latest it would be a hurricane was 2 pm today! Sometimes these storms just have minds of their own.
I think we are going to see a dud over the Florida Keys. I don't expect rapid strengthening until over the Gulf and until that inner core gets developed (something that she has not been able to do).

I think: expect a special advisory at some point showing a massive jump. Especially if it is still clinging to 70 mph at 5 am. It probably is a hurricane now, the NHC just doesn't know it (missed some information). No one is perfect.
So they've posted already? Or is this old stuff?
dunno canenut. dunno
Maybe she'll be a TOTAL dud for all of us?
YAY! Emmy!
517. wpb05
cantore said earlier the NHC said it was due to the eyewall failing to completely form...he said that once that happened you could see a jump to a cat 3 relatively quick....he said this was from the NHC
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was
located near latitude 23.6 north...longitude 78.8 west or about
200 miles east-southeast of Key West Florida.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28
km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Rita will be
passing near or over the Florida Keys later this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Reports from reconaissance aircraft indicate that Rita has
not strengthened over the past few hours. However...Rita is
expected to become a hurricane later this morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft was 991 mb...29.26 inches
519. Manny
I'm back.

That last vortex seems to finally give them the info that it is a 'cane.
Mornin All... 11:00 Tampa forecaster said the VIPER indicated RITA would be farther East in the Gulf... but we would 'wait and see'. Any indication of an easterly shift with the latest numbers? I really don't understand them (#s). Thanks for any info to alleviate my anxieties...we had lovely, strong winds a few hours ago; they suddenly stopped and the air is humid and hanging.
521. wpb05
convection is dying off slightly once again...just keep getting bigger in area but can't maintain the deep convection quite long enough to get over the hump
Someone put up a link earlier for webcams in the Keys...I have been looking at several of them looks pretty normal to me ...I just clicked on the one called schooner cam...you can see the boats rocking, must be moving in...
She's still a TS? cool....
In 1942 a cat 3 cane, with a pressure of 950 mb and a good forward speed hit the central tx coast and the center passed just south of San Antonio wih the remains of the right eyewall passing directly over the city. Sustained winds hit a record 74 mph (which has not been reached since) and lots of trees were downed. This is an example of a cat 3 storm hitting with a fast forward motion (18 mph) and being perfectly aligned to hit San Antonio with maximum power. Carla, which hit Austin, was traveling only 10 mph and had longer to weaken, and the forward speed did not add much to the right eyewall winds (the eyewall had completely collapsed by the time it reached Austin) It is unlikely that Rita will be moving so fast, but if she does get to strong cat 3 or above, destructive winds could go inland a surprisingly long way.
u in tampa ur fine relax. she will hut central to northern texas.



manny still no cane
Wpb05, where are you seeing IR? I'm still in blackout.
527. Manny
That last GFDL puts Rita right over my house after landfall. Wow.
I'm starting to lean toward much less of a cane for the Keys than earlier anticipated, as wxwatcher is thinking. To me the core still looks like crap on Cuban radar. Rita is now booking wnw at 17 mph so maybe that rapid speed is making it difficult to get that core organized. A fast speed is fine but only if a storm is already well organized. One last thing before sack time... the 0z models have all shifted a good bit to the south with the extended track. Evidently they now think the ridge will be stronger and hold in place longer.
529. Manny
Yeah, I read the last advisory. But the recon data may finally confirm by the next advisory.
SAGuy, Hill Country can get massive flash flooding from a dying 'cane, also, Texas leads the nation in flood-related deaths.
531. wpb05
no manny...they got the recon data before advisory was issued....hence the pressure....the fact is they eye is failing to form and maintain...THAT is the issue holding it up right now
..of minor interest here in HI--Hurricane Jova getting closer than anything we've had for the last 2 yrs., but still expected to pass well to the east of the Big Island (maybe it will spin off some much-needed rain for us here on O'ahu).
533. Manny
I'm in San Antonio. Is anyone else around me? And yes, the hill country is the worst place in this country for flash floods. Anyone remember Ocober 98 or July 2002?
I've done my research! just a little concerned for us here in San Antonio. I missed out on Claudette the other year so didn't really get any damage here in northern SA. We've had a pretty dry summer so far, and that'll help blow down alot of trees right? I got a Business that would take a huge loss if power goes down for a few days as well.
when i was 2 in 1982 i was in a hurricane on the isaland of o'ahu
Lefty... thanks! I'm in Sarasota and ever since Charlie pulled his fast right turn and decimated the area south of me...well... any Gulf hurricane causes concern... Back to try and get more sleep. will read you all in the morn. THANKS, Guys, for all your info. nite, nite.
TK, thanks for the info. I have family in Austin so we plan to go there. Good luck with your adventures.
;efty, that must have been Hurricane Iwa...I wasn't here yet, but I did experience a fairly strong tropical storm while visiting Kauai in Jan., 1997.
540. Peff
Lefty...You're just a kid!! I graduated from Kailua High School on Oahu in 1981. You were 1....what a trip. Hi Kaneui...Jova appears to indeed be passing north of the islands, I bet you'll get some decent waves out of her once she's north, though. Welcome aboard.
kan yeah that sounds right. did lots of damage and i rem,ebr it very clearly. probly why i love the weatehr so muc.
The 'eye' (if you can call it that) looks absolutely horrible on radar (or good depending on how you look at it). It's ragged and is having trouble closing off and maintaining or developing an eyewall. I think she is going to take a nap tonight and we'll see what happens tomorrow.

To SA Guy and other folks inland, hurricanes can have devastating effects up to 200 miles inland. Claudette was only a Cat 1 at landfall near Matagorda Bay in '03 with 80mph winds (with higher gusts). This storm toppled trees, some powerlines, and caused roof damage up to 120 miles inland. Structures inland are not built to withstand sustained hurricane force winds for an extended period of time. Obviously the damage from a Cat 3 or 4 would be much more extensive. As mentioned, the threat for heavy rain would be the most imminent threat, perhaps bringing back images of the floods of '02 or dare I say '98. Tornados would be the outside threat. Just because you do not live near the coast does not mean you are out of the woods from property damage. Keep up on the latest on this and future storms.
543. wpb05
here is the deal...they are waiting for the eyewall to close off in the SSE area...still has not happened, and not showing any immediate signs of doing so
peffi am 25 going on 40. married with 2 kids. been married for 6 years, have a 4 yr old daughter and a 1 year old son.
zx21, you know where Cestahowa is?
SA, Manny, here's a damage forecast model for Texas, county by county, at the current projected landfall track/strength. You're in better shape than I am, LOL.

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_48000.html
547. wpb05
I say cane at 11 AM, after the diurnal phase......
That's pretty amazing for 2 yrs. old, lefty! Hawaii has only had 5 major hits since 1950--the last, of course, being Iniki in '92. So I guess we're due for another?? (Although around Christmas '03 we had a 90 mph storm that tore up the roof pretty good.)
06z SHIPS peaks at 97kts in 72 hrs.
Oh great a re-run of fox. When the heck did this run? Bastardi was saying it was a Hurricane already and that people were crazy not to evacuate.

The sat imagery looked very old.

He said "It was exploding" and the teloconectic/historical odds were calling for a category 3 at Key West.

551. Peff
I'm 42 going on 25 :). Also married (10 years). 2 duaghters...6 and 4. I love the storms too....Nowhere near as good as you are in analyzing the available info though. I always see things that aren't really there. Just a matter of experience, I guess. I've been a member of this site for several years, but never realized this blog was here until fairly recently. Thanks for all the insight you give us!
its funny casue the whole time i didn;t understand what was going on but i could tell my parenst were scared. i remebr not having power for a long time and all the plam trees in front of my house were knocked down but the house stood up pretty well. the marine base, my parents were marines, got tore up real bad. hangers were flattened, planes detsroyed. thats what u get when u build in honolulu lol, its a freaking moutain
thanks peff. yeah i act 4 lol. love to get in thefloor and play with the kids. my wife is just another morther for me lol. i love to share what i love thats all. it getts a little heated but its all good as long as its not like cosmic who just doesn't l;ike me. a good disagreement over the facts can teach u alot
554. wpb05
what oh what will the next vortex say????
oh, and aloha, Peff....I'm right on Kailua Beach, so am always keeping an eye/ear out for tsunamis from quakes around the Pacific Rim. (Hurricanes only a minor threat...lol)
she will be an open tropical wave lol. i dunno wp, this storm is just nuts lol. she loks like a good cat 1 weak cat 2 and when u look at radar she looks like a spring shower lol
kane so true man lol
TVwxman, a lot of people, including the experts, were fooled tonight by all the deep convection. Good thing I waited for new recon reports before joining the "it's exploding" club.
lol hawke it did explode lol just not stregthen lol
Yeah Hawkeye.
I must admit I was onboard with that club earlier.
But I can't believe that fox is still running these segments that so many people believe are live.
561. OBXER
Hey everyone i know that hurricanes can be a very bad time but i just have to add that dueing Ophelia i did meet and fall in love with someone so good things do come from the canes
562. Peff
Kaneui....I used to windsurf there back in the late 70's early 80's...the good ole days...

Do keep an eye out for those tsunami's! I never saw one while I was there (had a couple warnings though).

Stay safe Braddah!
I may have said it before but here we go again.
Aspiring Meteorologists/youngsters etc.
This is the most importanr research that we need to explore. The intensification of tropical cyclones.
Well that and tornadoes.
good for u obx. imet some nice people while chasing ophelia as well
so true tv
Well, I guess the 0z GFDL was fooled too, according to it we should have about 973mb and 110mph winds right now.
568. OBXER
Lefty i got an email from Killdevi it sounds like he is going to be all over the place
Yeah, TV, it is pretty dumb for a 24/7 news network to rerun old weather segments.

Lefty, Katrina exploded its core organization to smithereens.
yeah he hates his job or atleast the travelling but the pay is too good to pass up. hes a nice man though straight up
571. Peff
Getting late....good night all...Stay safe and alert!
peff, now it's kite-boarding that's all the rage...luckily, Kailua Bay is somewhat protected by a reef, but I'd still have to run fast if a tsunami hit. (last big ones were in '46 and '60, from quakes in Alaska and Chile--you can check out the footage at the Tsunami Museum in Hilo :))
I mean with the exception of Charley's wobble last year,modles have tracked the paths so well as compared to even 5 years ago, but intensity is in a league of its own
TVWXMAN - Is Fox Tivoing the weather channel LOL
Em, if they were at least they would have current info.
576. OBXER
Lefty i have a friend whose mother has a houe in nola and they had 4 feet in Kat.She left tonight to get the rest of the stuff they had on the second floor that was not damaged because she was worried about Rita blowing the levees wide open in a hit or near miss.What do you think the chances of nola getting Rita in there area?
Hey EmmyRose have you been excorsized? lol
I guess its "current" for Fox they are still in the middle ages to me LOL
yeah zx, cestahowa, kosciusko, gillet, is my part-time neck of the woods.
Steve Gregory has a new blog update.

Nice to see both he and the NHC have acknowledged the shear I spoke of this afternoon.
obx, theres a chance it could hit there but i am feeling more west right now, texas will get this one.


in miami longrange radar the core looks half decent but she needs to close off that core
583. OBXER
Goodnight and everyone in the keys i hope you guys stay safe it is definetly a special place for me
I'm off work today so staying up later than norm. Question, when does the blackout end, it used to be around 6z, didn't it?
TVWXMAN Have I been "excorsized" - is my head spinning?
canenut it chnaghes as the earth tilts on its axsis. the black out is over at 6:45 z
Thanks lefty, I might just have to see the crack of dawn today.
cane i do it almost every night during cane season lol
Drink lots of coffee?? Where in Va do you live, I'm in WV in Mountaineer country. Guess we get to play VT real soon...
yeah boy that will be a good game.

i live in fredericksburg va between dc and richmond right on I-95
Lefty you're a friggin tropical nut! Do you ever sleep?
You need to work at the NHC! Get your degree, move to Miami and replace Knabb.

Goodnight all!
no coffe canenut, lil ice tea and just being young and doing all the time lol
tv i told u i can't live in miami cause i love the winter storms too. so i get snow up here lol

goodnight tv
Hey I've been away for a couple of hours, how is Rita doing? I can't believe she is not a hurricane yet.
wow first images out of black out and she is even bigger than befor lol


Link
596. wpb05
ok...so the center is attempting to possibly try closing off that SSE portion now...however, at the saem time, the center has gotten pretty messy itself
597. wpb05
as a side note...just had a good squall here in west palm...but looks like the good stuff in on its way here...approaching our shore......will let know what we gust to...it has definitely picked up in the last hour
I'll tell you, this thing could give Asprin a headache because it is so complicated and has so many possibilities of where it could go. One thing, it'll be worth watching as it sweeps through the Gulf like a boll weavel through a cotton field. You put NO.LA in, you take Houston out, you put Galveston in and you shake it all about...
While it's bigger, it by no means looks healthier to me...
wpb05, I just had a look outside. Winds are up a bit. Sky was clear for the most part (for the moment). I did notice some lightning off in the distance, but only on stroke. I'm in Lake Worth.
601. wpb05
sounds about right...at military and summit here
602. wpb05
wind chime has started acting up loudly though.....might wake my wife up soon
603. wpb05
gusts have increased to 34 here now as well
I forgot mine during Francis. Never did find it ;-)
605. wpb05
also more ENE winds here now instead of NNE....obviously will keep shifting as Rita passes south
If I had to guess I would say the winds here are a tad lower but coming up in the past hour or so. I wasn't expecting much in the way of gusts until the squalls hit, but it's doing nicely without them.
607. wpb05
those storms are finally slowly trying to wrap around that center....
yeah wp i think she will finally get that closed off
I haven't found a long range radar out of florida that is current.. anyone.. anyone?
610. wpb05
it appears so..slowly but surely...i predicted cane at 11. i think maybe at 5 now
AAHH, nevermind, got it

Yeah, it does look a little (Keyword LITTLE) more impressive on radar...
sounds good wp
613. wpb05
i am looking at the miami radar
wp looks like she is forming a inner core in side that outer core as well. do u see that
Post-blackout satellite looks similar to the pre-blackout images with most of the deep convection east of the center. There are some much smaller pops of deeper stuff trying to get going around the west side, but so far it is not a big deal. The overall satellite presentation is the look of a storm that is quite expansive but not tight at all. No storm with a tight core would have all the scattered garbage convection well away from the center like Rita does now.
616. wpb05
yes, lefty i see that as well...first frames looked cluttered..last half hour tends to lead me to believe she is forming a inner core
617. wpb05
i think she will close that off in the next hour or two, and begin tightening up by afternoon.....
yeah if she can get that core she might be able to get ahold of those hot sst but we will see. her radar presentation is slowly getting better
Hi, newbie here.

I've been studying cyclonic activity for quite awhile, albeit tropical or tornadic. But one thing I haven't spent a lot of time on is the end result from the former to the later.

Here's a supposition: Say Rita makes landfall in Galveston, TX as a Cat 4, then travels northward up I-45 to the DFW area, which is about 300 miles.

What type of storm degradation would occur from a Cat 4 or worst-case Cat 5 landfall over 300 miles of land mass? And what type of weather could be expected? It has been rare that any hurricanes have significantly affected that area of TX in the last 50 years.
620. Manny
Wx, here you go

Link
tx hurricane force winds maybe as strong as 90 mph usstained but the key will be storm speed. if its slow it will be weaker, if its fast it will lose little power by time it reached that area
TX, here is a link to the Inland wind models.
Link
That Miami long range radar looks decent. There is plenty of convection spiralling around a well-defined center, but no real eyewall to speak of.
yeah hawke but it looks alot betetr than it did just an hr ago let alone 2 hrs ago. thats what we are saying
625. wpb05
next vortex should be interesting...although its not like the previous ones have given us a good hint of what the NHC will do
Hey lefty, how long before we have any idea what the NOAA plane found? and when the hell does that next Vortex come out?
New vortex has been taken, will be released soon.
Evening all. So no beer for anyone huh Lefty?lol

I am glad to see the models shift back to the W, but like Jeff said these upper air models will be intresting.
if ur refering to the upper air recon, they don't tell us its just data for the models. the models will be run at 8am so we will see better models at around 130pm when they come out

new vortex should be out in 30 mins but i am not sure if this plane will be doing another cenetr fix. if it isn't it could be sometime befor we get another plane in there. we will see. must not the recon shcedule is all messedup so i have no clue what planes are doing what
630. wpb05
and, just when she starts looking a bit better on radar, she starts going the other way
hey sj, where the hell ya been
sj u see them skins last night lol
We wont have good model data until 130PM tomorrow?????? GGEEEEZZEEEE.....

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Workin. Sorry I wish I could be a stay at home dad, but alas my life is full of work!lol.
I am on nights for the next three weeks. 4 10s so I should be off just in time for the second landfall.
wx i think themodels are fine now. we just won't have the recon models till tomm and they might not change much from what we have now.



lol go ot hell sj lol
Thnx Canenut, that totally answered my question (gulp!)
I heard the Deadskins actually won. Impressive.lol.
wow that sucks sj
Wasn't joking lefty. Just a little envy.lol.
sj it was 13-0 with 5mins to go. than we scored 14 points on 2 bombs to santana moss one on 4th down and 15 and the d started playing and we messed those cowboys up
sj i worked 70+ hrs a week for years while my wife went to school. i did my dues lol
643. wpb05
strike that last comment about the radar presentation...she has just taken a big leap forward..look at it now
What's wrong with Hillary on TWC? She sounds either asleep or drunk, but she's having a hard time searching for a thought... I think she got into Dave's flask... LOL
That's a hell of a game.

So since I have been out of the loop for a bit-
Rita is headed past Key west and then a second landfall somewhere W of NO.
Phil is a fishy storm
97l has too much shear and can not develop for another day or two.

Did I miss anything?
Never should have let leftty talk me out of my original post two days ago of a Cat 1 hit by Rita on Key West. Now that having been said, just reviewed the latest water vapor images and I have a theory as to why Rita has picked up forward speed. Rita is currently being guided by a small high pressure ridge centered just off the Ga coast. The stronger high pressure ridge centered over Texas has clearly migrated west tonight. A weakness between these two ridges has developed. This weakness is clearly visible and extends from the northern MS/Al border south into the northern gulf, and then se right to Rita. This weakness while probably only temporary, has briefly opened a "highway" towards the wnw over the Keys. I'm will be interested to see later today if this weakness remains in the atmosphere and causes Rita to go wnw longer and further than anticipated by current major models. Just a point I wished to make a record of.
yeah wp i seeit. almost a complete eye and its shrunk in size


we ofocurse. they be hiting that flask durring the local on the 8's lol
Dave's flask.LMFAO. or did you mean his coke?
649. wpb05
eye will be closed by 4 AM...tightening quickly as well
Ok, I have to get to bed because I have to get up in 5 hours :( Radar is looking better, as is the satellite with 4 new images since blackout ended. I think a strengthening phase may finally be starting. It will be slow overnight but may become more rapid tomorrow.

g'night
getreal i am still lookinf for a 6-12 hr of deep stregthening and feel a strong cat2 weak cat 3 over the keys. dunno bout ur wv loop, will check it in a min


sj the first 55 mins sucked but the last was the type of game i expected for the whole game/ really go excited and we won in dallas for the first time in 10 years. never seen gibbs so happy

yes sj u hit it on the head but with rita we need to watch that second landfall


Night Hawk.

Lefty send me the longrange radar link.Thx.
I don't think he candies up his nose, I just think he's a little goofy -- and I mean that in a good way...It's funny watching him because you never know what's coming next..
sj we came to the conclusion he has a flask in his jacket pocket lol. no coke just a drunk
wx i dunno. u neevr know about people in this world. thats one thing i have learned in my short life but he is a trip to watch


sj here u go

lonrange radar
As much as I can not stand him, he does make me laugh especialy when he is trying to talk tropical or E coast weather.lol.
657. wpb05
i could be crazy, but it looks like that high is pushing nw???
No dought Hillarys on reefer
i think she is drunk. something wrong with her
URNT12 KNHC 200752
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/07:09:40Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
079 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 3006 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 112 deg 063 kt
G. 042 deg 092 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 9 C/ 3047 m
J. 13 C/ 3049 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 0818A RITA OB 26
MAX FL WIND 64 KT NW QUAD 05:09:50 Z


How can you not stand him? It's almost like watching an old junky car rattle apart; you never know what piece is going to fall of next...

He's a damn good meterologist though and funny.
Hillary needs to loose the blazer and the top button. It does seem like she ahs been on someone's flask though.
3 mb drop in 2 hrs thats good
664. Manny
Pressure drop in that last recon. Perhaps this is FINALLY it.
I wish I had access to tv to see TWC babe in Question
motion for last 2 hrs ahs been due west
He's just annoying as hell when he makes his stupid comments. I mean when Katrina was approaching NO he was must have said something like well looks like the nips on bourbon street will be a little wet this weekend due to Katrina.
well the core has gotten more oginised but we will see
sj lmfao thats funny
Lefty whats good about a drop in preasure?
671. wpb05
better start wrapping quick on that SW side or there is gonna be a new open spot
nothing i guess. we have been wating for her to become a cane all night, at 988 she might finally get upgraded
wp it will still be closed just elipticle
man the chick on twc looks like she was up all night fighting with her man and got no sleep and had to come in and do the damn weather and rita is still a ts lol
something is really wrong with her though no joke
Leftyy did you get a chance to review that wv loop??
Y'all going to make me find a tv withwoking cable now!
yeah i loked at it. i don't see the high in over ga or off the ocast and i feel the high in the gulf is over eastern texas or la. don't see it moving any but i will look some more. trying to see it but i don't. i don't think the high is moving nywhere right now nor will it move anywhere anytime soon
getreal its like she has no clue where she is or what she is doing.



i looked at the most recent surface anylisis and there is no high near gergia and the gulf high is cenetred right over nola.
Another question, anyone. Any tables or charts online that define increase or decrease in forward hurricane movement over land, after landfall?
Hilary is a train wreck tonight. Man this is funny. I am going to have to stay up just to see how long they leave her on. She is kinda hot when she is trashed though.
I'm going to find a tv with a satellite dish or working cable. I can use a good laugh... later.
tx that depends on alot of things mainly the steering currents ur best bet is to look at the models or the nhc forcast as they show motion that is forcasted.
KAAAAAAAAAAATRINA.lmao.
sj she looks like she had been crying and she has alot on her mind. even when she smiles it looks forced
All joke aside she really needs to loose the blazer though.
Thnx Lefty. I enjoy reading your posts.
How long has she been on?
wow she is gone. that weather channel chick is gone


wp u see that deep convection growing on the east side in radar
lol sj
NO SJ AND LEFTYY, THAT ISN'T REEFER. THAT'S A PROZAC OVERDOSE!!!
sj not long a couple hrs or so
They always expand in the direction they are moving. I noted that with O although she was moving sooooo slow that it did not help much with forcasting.
lol getreal, its lot stronger than reefer or prozac. she looks like chris rock in new jack city lol
Glad to see you found a TV Getreal.lol.
696. wpb05
yep lefty...i see that.....i am guessing the deep convection will wrap around that SW side soon...that may be the point she rapidly intensifies...if that convection can make it all the way around
lmao lefty.
698. wpb05
and the eye keeps shrinking........
Man when she blinks her eyes stay closed longer than they are open.
Storm i agree..it makes her hotter lol
hmm she looks like she wants to blow up finally well wp u tell her no point now, we don;t care lol
THERE IS A VISIBLE EYE PRESENT ON LAST WV IMAGE.
sj thats funny


yeah wp but its strting to break out on the west side and in the band in the core
704. wpb05
k...i'll let her know...she can just fade away cause we don;t care anymore
yeah getreal
sj yeah she has a hott little body


wp u tell her that than lol
I am really having a hard time choosing between Hurricane Rita and Trainwreck Hilary.
i am enjoying them both lol
709. wpb05
sj...better be PC...it is TS Rita...how dare you classify her as something she isn't according to NHC
lol wp
WNW MOVEMENT OF EYE CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WV LOOP!
712. wpb05
i mean the difference between a 70 mph TS and a 74 mph hurricane is just staggering...you just made a blunder of immense proportions....wait till Mayfield hears about this one....oh boy
713. wpb05
as of right now, it appears the keys are gonna avoid the brunt of Rita
wp the point i was making earlier was that based on the data she was not even 70mph so they stretched it as is. but i feel ya
LOOKING AT THIS MOTION TOWARDS WNW, I BELIEVE HURRICANE RITA WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KEY WEST, THROUGH FLORIDA BAY INTO THE GULF.
getreal u need to look at the radar. thats highly unlikley to occur.


yeah wp i was about to say the same thing
717. wpb05
getreal

she is moving mainly due west with woibbles wnw...she will head south of the keys
718. wpb05
the first landfall appears it will be the gulf coast...unless something drastically changes, i don't see the center passing over any land, even the keys, till saturday
That's funny wp. Althoug it kinda isn't, because people in the Key's are watching her and saying "Oh it's jsut a TS. I'll just wait and see" and she could still blow up before getting to the Keys, kinda like hse appears to be dowing now.

"Waaaaarnings in the Bahhhhhhhhhamas", oh get some sleep Hilary. "Teusday Teusday evening." Like one Teusday was not good enough. "The AHHH The"
yeah wp i feel ya but i was thinking the worse of her is to the north so the keys might not get that much relief from her. slight jog north and keywest might be in that eye wall
lol sj
722. Manny
I don't see an eye. I see a center of circulation, but no eye or eye wall.
723. wpb05
that is true lefty
Hi, everyone from Gulfport, Mississippi... this is my first post. After going through Katrina and watching how her track shifted to us right before landfall, I'm afraid the same thing will happen with Rita. We have a bunch of National Guard here helping us, but I bet they will be leaving within a day or two if Rita stays on the Texas track.
YEAH SCRATCH MY LAST POST, MAKE IT JUST SOUTH OR OVER KEY WEST
Key West and The Dry Tortugas are still gonna get hit pretty hard, but the upper Keys should fair better.
727. wpb05
gotta love the latest BAMM model run.lol
new recon. little wnw jog about 280 degres in the last hr. no more pressure drops though




070
URNT12 KNHC 200836
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/08:11:10Z
B. 23 deg 35 min N
079 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2999 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 232 deg 047 kt
G. 144 deg 040 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 7 C/ 3051 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0818A RITA OB 33
MAX FL WIND 64 KT NW QUAD 05:09:50 Z



729. wpb05
manny...there is an eye wall...take a look at radar and wv
Not gonna upgrade based on this

URNT12 KNHC 200836
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/08:11:10Z
B. 23 deg 35 min N
079 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2999 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 232 deg 047 kt
G. 144 deg 040 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 7 C/ 3051 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0818A RITA OB 33
MAX FL WIND 64 KT NW QUAD 05:09:50 Z



Yeah wp count on that finishing move the bamm shows.lol. The Bamm is good at general motions, but not any track forcast.
732. wpb05
nope...no upgrade at 5...maybe 11 like i first said
733. Manny
WP, I am looking at the radar. I think you are confusing the center of circulation with an actual eye wall.
734. wpb05
the BAMM is classic....yep..she will hit mexico..slamm on her brakes..and take a 90 degree right turn....definitely
I think they could "stretch", as lefty would say, an upgrade at 5AM just due to proximity to the Keys, and wanting people to take Rita seriously.
That is more like a 130 not a 90 wp.lol.
737. wpb05
no manny...there is an eyewall there...i didn't say complete eyewall...but there isan eyewall.....5 AM is out...no upgrade
738. wpb05
and i am now under the typical tornado watch
New forecast is out.
Man wp if you are in that blob I saw up N then you are in for some helluva storm storms.
741. wpb05
cone shifted left again
Night all. Have to work tomorrow. See ya. Keep an eye on Rita and Hilary for me.
night sj
744. wpb05
night sj
745. wpb05
70 mph
988
wnw 15

status quo
746. wpb05
radar presentation is lackluster once again
yuo
yup
749. wpb05
i don't know what to think about Rita anymore...i am ready to white flag it....strange
lol
alrigth bed time. ctach yall later
752. wpb05
she has to be giving the NHC a migraine...i can see them pulling their hair out right now
THIS LATEST ADVISORY UNDERSCORES THE PROBLEM THAT I HAVE WITH THE NHC. A 988MB READING IS CONSISTANT WITH A 75-80MPH HURRICANE. JUST BECAUSE THE THE RECON FLIGHT COULD NOT FIND THESE SUSTAINED WINDS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THESE FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXIST AT THE SURFACE. CASE IN POINT ON KATRINA WITH A 903MB READING RECON AT ONE POINT FOUND 175 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A SUPER CAT 5. AT LANDFALL I BELIEVE KATRINA STILL HAD A READING AROUND 912 OR 914 WELL WITHIN WHAT IS FOUND IN A CAT 5 HURRICANE. HOWEVER RECON COULD ONLY FIND 145 SUSTAINED AT LANDFALL. THE SLIDELL MUNICIPAL AIRPORT REGISTERED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 176 MPH WITH GUST TO 192 WHEN KATRINA'S NORTHERN EYEWALL STRUCK THE AREA. THE WINDS EXISTED BUT RECON DID NOT FIND THEM!!! THERE I GOT THAT PET PEEVE OFF MY CHEST!!
Rita is yet another large storm / hurricane, although weak at present. I wonder how this year compares to others in the size of the storms rather than either the strength or number?

Are you better off with a large "weak" hurricane or a small "strong" one ?!

It looks like shear is competing against water temps at the moment.
755. wpb05
she isn't a cane yet...not much doubt about it..she is floundering quite honestly
THE REASON RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED IS BECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT VERTICALLY STACKED. THE RADAR IMAGE OF THE CENTER IS OF 24N, BUT THE CENTER IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP IS CLEARLY NORTH OF 24N. ALMOST DUE EAST OF KEY WEST.
757. wpb05
nap time...be back in a couple or a few...nothing will happen before 11 AM
Well, we can all agree that all those that for the last 24 hrs+ have been saying category 3 by landfall in Key West were wrong. I have been reading about how this thing is exploding with convection and how it is strengthening on this blog for several days from some of you regulars and have come to the conclusion that it is really just all guessing. This thing is not much stronger than it was over 24 hours ago. We can all be happy, and except that for what it is. We will maybe get a weak CAT 1 in the keys at best.
Than it is anyones guess after that where she is headed.

All the best
It's still a Tropical Storm?

This is beginning to remind me of when Katrina was a Category 3. The pressure kept dropping all day, but no change in winds speeds. Then what happens? It jumps from 115 mph to 140...

Then Category 5 strength...
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF RITA HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY NW AND APPEARS TO BE NOW GETTING UNDER THE UPPER CENTER REFERED TO EARLIER. RITA IS NOW BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED AND WILL STRENGTHEN NOW TO A STRONG CAT 1. RADAR LOOPS NOW INDICATE THAT EYEWALL IS CLOSING OFF IN ALL QUADS.
A strong Cat 1 is not going to be a Cat 2-3 at landfall in the keys. It may be getting just a little stronger now but will not exceed Cat 1 till after it leaves the Keys.
I BELIEVE THAT RITA HAS FOUND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. RITA HAS BEEN FOR THE LAST TWO HOURS MOVING WNW OR NW INTO THIS WEAKNESS EASILY VISIBLE ON THE WV IMAGES. THIS WEAKNESS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN MS/AL BORDER SOUTH TO THE GULF THEN SE TO RITA. THE HIGH OVER TEXAS APPEARS TO HAVE MIGRATED SOME TOWARDS THE WEST OVERNIGHT ALSO ALLOWING RITA TO TURN MORE WNW IN MY OPINION. IF THIS AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS OR TROF PERSIST CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOULD BE AWARE OF RITA DANGER.
Will be interersting to see if your forecast turns out right Getreal, peoples estimates up to now have been way out.

Actually peoples estimates on Opherlia were way out as well, but that was to be expected with it's slow movement.

Good morning folks-

I see why Rita is not a hurricane. Like primez said, the presuure will keep dropping, but the storm has been expnding its wind field, thus delaying the pressure catching up. Once the expansion stops...
This storm is just plain strange,it had more radar echos than last night,and even over 90 degree water I don't know what DR. Masters was talkin about being that it is an impressive hurricane itwill be eventually but it is slow to strengthen in it's weaker stages,so watch out/
I know this is a weather blog, but I personally am happy it has not developed. Everytime one develops it changes lives. Today I wake up to light wind, my newspaper is outside, and a radar that looks awesome for Coral Gables. We are very lucky. Wonder if the experts can learn anything from this experience that will save lives in the future? I will be interested to hear from the NHC today.
Joe B.'s take..

TUESDAY- "TOWERING WAVES, WILL CRASH UPON YOUR SOUTHERN COASTS. MASSIVE STORMS WILL REACH YOUR EASTERN SHORES"- Bob Seger from the song "In your Time" written to his then 1 year old son. 1) Rita is a hurricane, but has not yet begun to (fight) explode as of 3:30 am. Actually new recon is down 3mb last hour and a half so it may be starting. Still believe major ramping up is around the corner and by the time it gets to Key West pressure should be in 960s. 2) Modelling Musical Chairs has begun as many models shift south. My path remains mainly unchanged. As with Katrina, lets see what this looks like once out in the gulf. 3) Rita to lead charge to much cooler. Likely to be biggest rainstorm of the landfalling storms as it traverses Ohio valley Monday, and off east coast Tuesday. Crisp Autumnal air mass to follow. 4) But typhoon development and west move in pacific next week indicate that higher amplitude back and forth pattern with much chillier air available to invade country is there. Focus of returning warmth should be southeast states once smoke clears from cool down. 5) Euro catching chance for Bahama development this weekend and early next week as trof de Phillippe leaves tail behind to sit. Major African wave in central tropical atlantic should be coming across. Analogs to Sept 1985 being studied now for week to two weeks down the road ( Henri, home brewed, then Gloria, couplet) 6) Rita disco later. As of 3 am, idea is it passes 30 miles south of Key West this afternoon and evening with winds of 110 mph and pressure in 960s. 7) RAIN IN SO CAL WITH TROPICAL CONNECTION!!!!!! Biggest things about Rita 1) threat of jaw dropping intensification next 24 hours. 2) THIS IS NOT GOING TO HIT NEW ORLEANS 3) Houston, we have a problem

Note: If Rita hits within 50 miles of Galveston, it will make it the first time since 1983 such a thing has happened and only the 1st time in the last 50 years after 7 times in the first half of the 20th century. While the rafters may scream Global warming, the fact is....they are due.

Forecast from yesterday below

all times 12z. tomorrow morning: 23.7/79.6 965mb 90kts wed 24.5/85.0 940mb 110kts / thur 25.5 90.0 935mb 115kts/ fri 28.5,95.0 935 mb 115kts/ sat 32.5,96.0 985mb 55kt

The implied hit would be the 1st major hurricane hit within 50 miles of Galveston since Alicia in 1983. *****
guys, this is a hurricane, don't let the update fool you.. she is rapidly strengthening..
GetREal.. You are out of your mind.. This is going further west of earlier forecast
I agree with hookedontropics.
RITA DID NOT STRENGTHEN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE SHE WAS NOT VERTICALLY STACKED. ABOUT 0600 HRS EASTERN, SHE PULLED HERSELF TOGETHER AND IS NOW LOOKING THE PART.
I certainly appreciate the insight provided by contributive members of this site. I've learned a great deal from many here. However throughout my lurk (long time lurker) I have grown to become annoyed with the antics of themuffinman and 88888888gg et al. who obviously mistake this weather discussion medium to be something that it is not. Aside from individually reporting them to the site administrators, I encourage those who are also annoyed to make their posts containing ad hominum attacks and off-colour remarks as "obscene".

Hopefully a community has the power to self-regulate.

Having said that, let's get back to the big whirly thing: I'm chipping in landfall directly at Galveston at . . . Cat 4. Rita is literally in, I mean over, hot water and a lot of it.
I OFFERED IT AS A POSSIBILITY ONLY, READ POST CAREFULLY. ALSO CHECK THE WATER VAPOR OVERNIGHT. RITA HAS MOVED WNW LAST SIX HOURS WITH SOME NW WOBBLES. THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS THERE.IT MAY NOT REMAIN AS I ALSO POSTED EARLIER.
HOWEVER I'M STICKING WITH MY ORIGINAL FORECAST POST FROM TWO DAYS AGO, FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY, A CENTRAL LA COAST LANDFALL AS A CAT 3. THE WILD MODELS HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO SWING RIGHT, BESIDES RITA STILL HAS NOT ENTERED THE GULF OF MEXICO!
OK Time to start the conspiracy theory. There is a two hour gap on the Miami long range radar loop (NOAA).
Watch for the "MIB".
This storm is looking very well now.
Not much has changed in a day

994 MB 65 MPH 11AM 9/19
993 MB 70 MPH 2PM 9/19
995 MB 70 MPH 5PM 9/19
995 MB 70 MPH 8PM 9/19
990 MB 11PM 9/19
991 MB 70 MPH 2 AM 9/20
988 MB 70 MPH 5AM 9/20
Miami long range radar:Link
It has gotten better organized on radar significantly over the past 2 hours and is heading straight for key west.
it does look better....is there much on the back side of this storm out of miami radar range?
KEy West NEXRAD estimating storms near the center of circulation are (eyewall) exceeding hurricane velocity.
GetReal, That jog to the north seems a very bad turn for the Keys. BTW, I saw the weakness, too. Hope Rita doesn't.
the recon should be out soon from the aircraft. that will give us a hard facts hopefully within the hour.
OBVIOUSLY THE MORNING CREW AT NHC HAVE NOT HAD THEIR MORNING COFFEE YET. NOT ONLY DOES THAT RECON HAVE TO CONFIRM RITA AS A HURRICANE, IT HAS TO GIVE THE CORRECT POSITION OF THE CENTER AT LEAST 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF A DEGREE FURHTER NORTH ACCORDING TO THE RADAR LOOPS.
My best guestamete is Cat 1 for Key West and then after that Cat 3-4 within 150 miles each side of the Mexico/Texas border.
GetReal, They need some of the CDM coffee I'm drnking now.
haha....you guys crack me up. Look at you all getting all pissed that its not a hurricane. You guys should be thankful. Instead you're calling all the scientists who do this for A LIVING idiots. CAT III over the keys???? This is why lefty is on here and not workin for NHC.
jumkrock - it is a hurricane -
oh so theres no difference between tropical storms and hurricanes now....ok Learn something new everyday
jxn, Look back on the everchanging Official track of just the last few major hurricanes. By using this blog and all the internet sources I can find, I have not needed to wait in line for gas and have been able to estimate the point of landfall (within 50 miles)three days out.
Which leads me to ask, If you feel this way, why are you here instead of the NWS site?
I'm going for more a Brownsville region than a massive turn to the north, or at least tending that way.

Cat 1 past the keys but somewhere in the high cat3 and low cat 4 when it hits land. Hopefully miles from anywhere too heavily populated and with plenty of warning.


792. GKP
Jeff, What are the chances of this Hurricane hitting the Port O Conner/ Matagorda Bay area?
When Claudette hit the Matagorda Bay area, the predicted path then was near Houston/Galveston area. We were all caught off guard.
just get a chuckle reading all your dooms day scenarios....the sky is falling the sky is falling....and its a tropical storm....lol
If you want to get a good look at the eyewall, just ask the good comrades (compadres) in Cienfuegos, Cuba:

Guantanamera... Guantanamera
795. iloco
Pressure down to 985. Winds not caught up yet. Last vort msg 69 kt E quad
My comic impression of the blog during more than the last 24 hours is:

"did you see that last loop, WOW the convection is exploding
No doubt in my mind that this thing will be 110 -120 winds and Cat 3 when it hits the Keys. I know cause I watch 20 screens/windows on my computer, but if I had my old computer I could have watched 40 screens/windows without a crash. WOW, bye bye Hogsbreath Saloon will be no more. She is blowing up.

lol
Canebear, here is an elevation map:
http://www.topozone.com/map.asp?z=15&n=3268133&e=287902&s=50&size=l&datum=nad83&layer=DRG25

You can't be more than about 25ft above sea level.

Secondly, on mandatory evacs, it is a new Texas law that authorizes them, though it will not be enforced on individuals. Its point is to prevent businesses from holding employees at work once an evac order is issued.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 201146
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT TO REACH RITA...WILL DETERMINE IF IT
IS A HURRICANE...
I do like reading the post, and am intriqued by all your postings. I just wanted to vent and let you all know that it is still just a guessing science. Nobody knows for sure you can make educated guesses, all in all it is still kind of like going fishing, you never know what your gonna get.
AZDUCK THAT CUBAN RADAR LOOP CONFIRMED FOR ME THAT THE LAST POSITION GIVEN ON LAST INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WAS TO FAR SOUTH. THANX
Richard Knabb(NHC) on CBS MIAMI: Plane just found 985mb. Will sample winds to determine if Hurricane. Winds at Fort Lauderdale are 34mph
i hav updated my blog
jumprock - if its such a wimpy storm why waste your time here -get in your row boat and give us an eyewitness account
jxnkrock posted : at 12:22 PM GMT on September 20, 2005.
oh so theres no difference between tropical storms and hurricanes now....ok Learn something new everyday

FYI jxnkrock. During last flight the NHC reported peak winds of 72 KT well into hurricane category, however since the storm is not stacked concentric without eyewall, most likely the average intensity would not be as high, therefore the lower estimate. It is only on the average.

As soon as it reorganizes, the average eyewall velocity would be uniform. Therefore, for this storm right now, there is no difference to hurricane winds, just no eyewall, and that's what we can learn today.
is it me, or is Rita not developing as quickly as was thought?
how warm is that gulf water right now?
Well here I am in Plantation.... Everyone was in panic mode yesterday and pretty much bought everything from the local publix here.. We have had a few squalls overnight and sustained winds of about 26mph with the highest gust at the Dolphins training camp of 45mph...To me it seems nothing more than a slightly windy day.. One would think because the storm is not more organized the stronger winds would be over this way, but at this time it has not been the case...Looks like Broward county has once again been completely spared from the wrath of mother nature..The question is how much time until our luck runs out....
What is the expected time of rival in the keys, will it be close to High tide?
I think high tide in the Keys is around 11am EDT today, so yes, looks like Rita is showing up at the right time for high tide.
809. IKE
All of the gloom and doom folks are sleeping now. Probably dreaming its a cat 3 by now. They'll be back on here later this morning. This is the most sane time of the day to be on here.

It's a cat 3...it's a cat 4...it's a cat 5......
good morning all,
just looked at the noaa weather stations at key west and dry tortuguas. water temp readings are 85.3 and 84.7. don't know how far out these temps extend and what affect it could hae on rita.
SO.....Ya'll think South east Louisiana is safe for now. I do hope so.

Put
yikes, who stretched the board?

as for gloom and doom, i don't know if thats quite it, i think its just preparing for worst case or considering it. Thinking of it does not cause it to happen, so i don't get my panties in a wad over it.
but i agree with the question of the general sanity of some of the bloggers here, lol *wink*


anyhue

i expect that the models will continue to shift. i am also not planning to be surprised if this brat storm goes into some part of LA
I'M NOT CONVINCED YET THAT SE LA IS SAFE, RITA IS STILL NOT YET IN THE GULF. CHECK BACK LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING FOR BETTER IDEA.
814. IKE
When someone says...it dropped 3 mb's....good news...Their wishing for another Katrina. That's bs.
this storm has been a pain in arse from the first time someone said "look at that blob" - Blobby is a tease.
thanks for the temps Collinsfarm

waiting for the upward rush in windspeed

that and my personal habit of pessimisim and murphy's law adherance

reality is of course a fluid distinction
Yesterday some of the tracks where putting the storm into Terrebonne bay at a Cat 3. Which is where I am. What has changed their mind?

Put
My general summary would be that the hurricane is being powered up by the very warm waters but depowered by the air conditions above the water and so it is not gaining as well as previous guesses people have given.

It's stil la borderline hurricane/storm.

The hardcore overnighters will be disappointed when they get out of bed ( presumably alarm clocks set to just before the next update :) ).

I wonder if it will hit that hotspot in the Gulf, at this speed though it will not be over it for that long, but it will be interesting to find out
Anyone obsessively reading this board has a screw loose. I freely admit to a morbid fascination with hurricanes. I would love for every storm to be a CAT5 and then...

either:

A) Magically go to Kenedy County TX (where no one lives except some cows)

B) Hit urban areas but cause no real damage or injury

But even in the real world, these things are fun to track and watch. They are unique weather systems, and we are one of the only places in the world where you can watch them up-close.
Lot of people putting down people for 'dooming and glooming'. Yeah, those of us who watch killer storms tend to doom and gloom. But that is because nobody listens when we see a Katrina ar an Andrew coming at them. They sit through Cat 3 storms and say, "Well, my neighbor lost his roof, but nobody really got hurt so I'll be OK in a Cat 4 storm." They don't listen. And people die. When Dennis was bearing down on the Flordia Gulf coast and looked to be a strong Cat 4 storm, I could not get my family and friends to budge. They all remebered Opal, where our friends and negihbors wre stranded on the Interstate, unable to move in stalled traffic...or siting under the 'safety' of a gas station overhang because they were out of gas and so were all the stations. They figured, and rightly so, that it was safer to stay in thier homes than to be stranded on the highway. But if they had listened to us doom and gloomers and gottne out early, they would ot have been in danger of being stranded, nor would they have been at home. And if Dennis had not lost strength at the last minute, then wobbled and laid on its side at a diagonal so that the winds effectively stayed in the upper altitude and kept from creating a massive storm surge, then my family and friends would have been in serious dnager. When I told them the storm would likely come in as a strong Cat 4 they told me, "We'll be safe as long as we stay inside our homes!" I reminded them of Andrew and the devastation that those people experienced as their homes turned into toothpicks around them. Now they will listen. So, yeah, I doom and gloom when itcomes to hurricanes. Because I know that a hurricane can quickly do the unexpected and people who are not prepared will die when that happens.
WHO KNOWS, I'M SURE IF YOU LOOK HARD AND LONG ENOUGH OUT THERE YOU CAN STILL FIND SOME MODEL THAT WILL PUT RITA IN YOUR BACKYARD.
824. amd
accroding to some on this board, i thought this storm was supposed to rapidly strengthen hours ago. What happened? :)

Fortunaly, it looks like the keys will be spared a major blow, but I am worried about the texas gulf coast.

Ike, i wouldn't worry so much about it. Personally. Everyone here is observing, sometimes they may speak (type) in a way that dosen't sound very humane, but sometimes i think its a semantics tangle, and the actual intention is not that we WANT to see something bad happen... my personal thought tho.
azduck - what have you got against cows?
Ike, I understand everyones interest in the Growth of these storms. It is a marvel of nature. I am sure everyone here does not really want to see lose of life. They just like to watch the power of nature.

I am from South Louisiana and also like to watch the progess of these storms, but I don't want it to get me.

It is like watching horror movies. I like them but don't want watch them but don't really want to be in one for real. Put
cows lick their own nostrils
I'd like to see a Cat 6. I dont care where it hits as long as Darwin has a chance to properly operate. I'd love to see IKE crying about how the doom and gloomers were right this time, if only IKE hadn't been such a buckethead.
I think that Rita got more interaction with Cuba than people gave her credit for. Looking at the storm, she only just now is beginning to show outflow on her south side. Cuba (unlike FL or anywhere in the SE US) is mountainous and therefore much more of a hurricane obstacle than the Bahamas or FL.

Also I think that the NWS has been a bit more conservative about calling her a cane than I would be. The pressure and the winds and circulation are all borderline, but the fact that she is beelining toward a place with one road out would have impelled me to call her a cane last night at the 8pm advisory - pour encourager les autres.

But hey, that's me. What do I know.
post your predictions on my blog for the second landfall... on my blog, we can track and see who is unlucky and who is lucky
As of 9AM(Est) is this northward jog Getreal keeps talking about really happening? I don't see it on the track...
834. IKE
What's a matter...weatherwannabe...??? 70 mph storm isn't good enough???

To everyone else...I'm fascinated by storms too and enjoy tracking them, but wish no harm on anyone. I hope this thing dies out over the gulf or heads to a non-populated area.
fellow Doom and Gloomers - I'm not so sure Blobby isn't weakening. This is looking like a yawner. But good for Key West.
836. amd
IKE, i'm not sure that all of the people who thought that the storm would ramp up to a cat 3 or cat 4 wished for it to happen. They assumed that rapid intensification would occur near the Florida straits.

Last night, I was on saying that because of the imperfect outflow conditions, that there would be modest intensification at best. And, everyone thought I was wrong bigtime.

Looks like the storm will finally become a hurricane, but there still has been no rapid intensification due to an imperfect outflow, something that the NHC finally mentioned in their 5 am discussion.
i am not expecting a yawner


i am hoping it will fizzle out, but i am not expecting it to.
IKE I was watching some paint dry earlier - it was pretty excitig too. I have pics if anyone wants to them I will post them.
anyone got some realtime videos of a kidney bean germinating!

whooo!

i need to get some new links for radar and such
Brian Norcross just said it was Hurricane Rita as of now, looking for NHC info on that change now
Weather channel said lastest info cane now too
so she has been oficially upgraded now?
Hey let me ask this, How do ya'll think Bush is going to pay to rebuild all these places that keep getting torn up?
Is there even enough lumber to do this? There won't be a tree standing when they finish. Put
Doom and Gloomers, Brian Norcross has joined the club! Woohoo!
845. IKE
Dam weatherwannabe....get a life!?!?!?!? I see the weather pattern is suppose to change in about 2 weeks and fall might be on the horizon. Maybe an end to the hurricane season along the gulf coast and the lovebugs. Ah yes...cooler weather...
Bryan Norcross(CBS MIAMI): NHC now confirms RITA is a HURRICANE. Now I will put up my shutters;)

Winds have reallt died down here in Broward County
IKE shouldn't you be beating Tina right now? Let us doom and gloomers be and you go play tidly winks..
000
WTNT63 KNHC 201311
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA
849. IKE
I don't beat women son. Go watch your HURRICANE!!! Get a life...what do you do after hurricane season, hooker???
NEXRAD indicates winds nearing 100 mph in RITA
I guess RITA does not like to be called Blobby - I thought that might get to the old hag.
*aims two buckets of pistacio pudding at weatherwannabe and ike*
ahh... new blog up
I'll ask again, what was this supposed northward jog that Getreal kept talking about?

Also, putintang, it would appear that while SE LA is not entirely out of the woods, the trend overnight has been good for us. Yesterday, we in Houma and Thibodaux were all in a panic over the shift toward Morgan City. Since 5PM yesterday evening, the models have been consistently shifting back to Texas and are even clustering among themselves again.

Encouraging news for LA: The storm's forward speed continues to rise, and the forward motion, assuming Getreal is imaging this north jog, is much more west than north.

Bad news for LA: Anything can happen, and even if the winds hit far away from us, we can still get in on some bad storm surge, so, if you live in a low-lying area, I'd still look into getting to higher ground if necessary if you have friends or relations living nearby. Buying some food and batteries would not be a bad idea since our stores don't stock as often down here thanks to Katrina taking out the interstate and shippers have to rely on Highway-90.

Also, can someone please corroborate that northward component Getreal mentioned?
THE LAST NORTHWARD JOG WAS ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. RITA HAS RESUMED A WEST OR WNW 280 DEGREE MOTION. RELAX FOR NOW IN HOUMA.
Ah, thanks, had me worried for a minute.
Well, more worried than normal.
Also, putintang, I don't know how close to live to water, but it'd be a good idea to put your valuables on shelves just in case. I'm not saying this is going to happen, and no one's forecasting it, but I'm just recalling 3 or 4 years ago when T.S. Allison brought alot of unexpecting flooding along Bayou Terrebonne and we had to scramble at the last minute getting things off the ground.

In other words, if you've got photo albums, insurance papers, or a wedding dress or something in the back of the closet with sentimental value, why not just put it on a high shelf way ahead of time so it's one less thing you have to worry about.

Just speaking from personal experience.
HAS ANYONE ELSE NOTICED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS OF SE U.S. THAT THERE IS A TROF DIGGING PRETTY FAR SOUTH INTO MS/AL. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A WEAKNESS EXTENDING FROM THIS TROF SE INTO THE GULF TOWARDS RITA??
I would say Houma is not exactly in danger.

By the way, I was in Houma Sunday. It would be nice if Don could light a fire under the seats of the contractors responsible for picking up limbs by the side of the road.
Link
Not feeling so well.
Have a well of emptiness inside.
It must be filled.
Have sniffed out your coastal methyl-derivatives source, and will have it.
I beg you...pray for me in my hour of need.
Or, stop feeding me your junk.

Please...It's not personal...I'm only trying to survive.

Yours truly,
Your GlobalWeatherSystem