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Hurricane Rina weakens as it slides toward the Yucatan

By: Angela Fritz 9:12 PM GMT on October 26, 2011

Hurricane Rina has unraveled a bit since yesterday afternoon, but still packs category 1 winds of 85 mph. Rina is moving steadily to the northwest at 6 mph, and the center of the hurricane is expected to reach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday afternoon. The most recent Hurricane Hunter mission, which ended at 4:30pm EDT, found maximum surface winds around 85 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 976mb. Rina is battling some moderate wind shear (at least 10-15 knots) this afternoon, which is helping to break down the upper-level outflow of the hurricane, which is now only present on the northeast side of the cyclone. The most recent integrated kinetic energy analysis of the hurricane (Figure 1) illustrates Rina's disorganization, with the strongest winds (in yellow) located on the northeast side. The southern end of the storm looks rather bare, likely due to moderately strong southerly wind shear, which is acting to tear that side of the hurricane apart. The destructive potential rating, which is estimated by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, has is now 1.5 for wind and 2.0 for storm surge and waves on a 0 to 6 scale.

Despite its ragged appearance and obvious weakening, Hurricane Rina is still expected to bring heavy rain and strong wind gusts to the Yucatan Peninsula. Wind speed on Cozumel had been steadily increasing since this morning, though have leveled off in the past few hours. Wind speed will increase again soon as Rina moves closer to the island. This station has also reported 3.25 inches of rain so far, but like Jeff said in this morning's blog, surrounding personal weather stations have only reported up to an inch of rain. Cancun's radar shows Rina's outer bands moving over the peninsula, and strong rain was reported in the city earlier this afternoon. A Yucatan Basin buoy is reporting wind speeds close to 30 mph, and waves around 8 feet so far. Having seen some photos of the Cancun beaches, wave height has increased there, as well, although aren't near 8 feet quite yet.


Figure 1. Hurricane Rina's wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Rina taken at 4:31pm EDT.

Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina remains mostly in line with earlier forecasts, although the intensity has been decreased significantly and the track through Friday has shifted slightly to the east. Rina will continue to move north-northwest toward Cozumel over the next 24 hours, likely making landfall Thursday afternoon and evening. Beyond this, the models have changed their tune since yesterday. The ECMWF, GFS and HWRF are all forecasting Rina to weaken significantly after coming in contact with the Yucatan Peninsula, but instead of a forecast track toward southern Florida, they are now calling for Rina to linger in the Caribbean as a broad area of low pressure and disturbed weather until the middle of next week, when it finally is swept out by a trough. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center have conveyed this possibility well in the 4 and 5 day track forecasts so far. This afternoon, they're calling for Rina to weaken to a tropical storm after landfall, at which point it will begin its clockwise turn back into the Caribbean while weakening further to a depression. The forecast surge has decreased to 2 to 4 feet, likely due to both the weakening of the hurricane and its relatively small wind radius, and heavy rain and flooding are still a concern for the Yucatan and Cozumel.

Jeff will be back with a morning post tomorrow.

Angela

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Rinal failure...

Lol..Rinal failure is actually welcome this time..97L is looking a bit more vigorous this morning, and looks more impressive on satellite than Rinal.
Looks like 97L will be revived later today, convection consolidating this morning as Rina weakens, she is no longer affecting the disturbance.
Lik I said yestrday RIP RITA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
the convection from was it 97L? looks better than Rina does...maybe that will be a player also..who knows...
505. eddye
then 97l will come 2 fl
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like 97L will be revived later today, convection consolidating this morning as Rina weakens, she is no longer affecting the disturbance.
Plus Rina will moisten the region up for 97L..Interesting as always.
Quoting islander101010:
lay off baro dont belittle one of my favorite characters i dont care if the forecast are wrong or right they are interesting. and thats all that matters


Sorry!!! I just agreed with Scottsvb.
508. eddye
come back alive rina we need u
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like 97L will be revived later today, convection consolidating this morning as Rina weakens, she is no longer affecting the disturbance.
Kman mentioned 2 days ago to look for 97L to develop between 75 & 80 W. Judging by 97L now, he was close to the mark
510. eddye
do the models still develop 97 l
Outflow from Rina making its way to SWFL today...does that count as affecting our weather? It may be the most we see from her.

What do you think caused Rina to breakdown the most?

1.Shear from the north
2.Land interaction
3."mid level" pockets of shear
4.shear from the southeast from 97L. Maybe a combo of say all of them? :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

I dunno about you, but a football pitch is normally 90 to 120 meters long and 75 to 90 meters wide. That asteroid is huge about 4 times the size of a football field.

Not sure where you got that info from but it's wrong. Down playing the size big time.



The asteroid that created Meteor Crater at Winslow was the size of a Volkswagon. If you've been there and seen the size of that crater I'd hate to imagine an object the size of a football field - although some of it would no doubt burn up coming down. Definitely a catastrophic event. This would be the time we did the sci-fi stuff and intercept it in space and blow it up.

Rina still there. Stay safe all my friends in the zone.
513. eddye
5 none of the above
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..Rinal failure is actually welcome this time..97L is looking a bit more vigorous this morning, and looks more impressive on satellite than Rinal.
Here we go again.
Quoting Buhdog:
Outflow from Rina making its way to SWFL today...does that count as affecting our weather? It may be the most we see from her.

What do you think caused Rina to breakdown the most?

1.Shear from the north
2.Land interaction
3."mid level" pockets of shear
4.shear from the southeast from 97L. Maybe a combo of say all of them? :)



Dry air.....shear
rina is kaaaaput imo,rina should be no more than a 65mph ts by 11am,a td within 24hrs
Quoting stillwaiting:
rina is kaaaaput imo,rina should be no more than a 65mph ts by 11am,a td within 24hrs


Yep....if that.
518. eddye
watch rina come back alive and scare everyone for halloween
Quoting Buhdog:
Outflow from Rina making its way to SWFL today...does that count as affecting our weather? It may be the most we see from her.

What do you think caused Rina to breakdown the most?

1.Shear from the north
2.Land interaction
3."mid level" pockets of shear
4.shear from the southeast from 97L. Maybe a combo of say all of them? :)
She does'nt like to be watch by this blog.
Quoting eddye:
watch rina come back alive and scare everyone for halloween
Another Zombie?
im wondering if some mid level circ makes its way ne thru the next 36hrs as rina possibly decouples today or tonight,enhancing rain and wind along fl's sw coastline,maybe look out for a possible hybrid low or possible subtropical low forming north of the yucatan channel tonight thru tomorrow,just my thinking to stir up the blog!
Quoting Buhdog:
Outflow from Rina making its way to SWFL today...does that count as affecting our weather? It may be the most we see from her.

What do you think caused Rina to breakdown the most?

1.Shear from the north
2.Land interaction
3."mid level" pockets of shear
4.shear from the southeast from 97L. Maybe a combo of say all of them? :)


Dry air and shear.
Rina was a very small storm because her outflow was inhibited by dry air on several sides. She did her best to protect herself from the dry air, but yesterday you could see dry air working into the system and isolating the inner core from its outerbanding.

If you look the current water vapor loop, you can see Rina is surrounded by dry air on 3 sides. That along with the shear is just too much for her.
my forecast low last night here in sarasota was suposed to be 64*,got down to 57*,so imo the air here is a bit drier than forecast,i expect that to change big time today with showers and storms forming for central/south fl 30-40%
the last shot from the eatl. area of disturbed weather south of the cape verde islands. after this the next time is 2012. this area should merge with a 1008 mb low near 12n 45 w and a surface trough east of the windward islands. this should bring unsettled weather to the windwards this weekend.
the ingestion of dry air yesterday was rathervapparent to us who pay attention and follow these storms,started tues night and just kept working its way towa'rds the center,no return for her,dead on arrival(mx)
If 97L merges with Rina, and grows to a depression, TS or whatever, how will it be named? Still Rina? Sean? Riean? Seanna? Spawn of Rina? LOL
Quoting stillwaiting:
im wondering if some mid level circ makes its way ne thru the next 36hrs as rina possibly decouples today or tonight,enhancing rain and wind along fl's sw coastline,maybe look out for a possible hybrid low or possible subtropical low forming north of the yucatan channel tonight thru tomorrow,just my thinking to stir up the blog!
Good morning..Stir away I say! This will being interesting to watch, moisture field is increasing over Florida with 97L moving in the same general direction of Rina. Maybe some squally weather for da southern half.
Kermit is about to Rina.
The CMC has a low and some heavy rain for Florida..
Just for fun, 06z GFS at 384 hours.
Quoting JasonCoooolMan2011:
Lik I said yestrday RIP RITA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Rita was been dead since 2005.
Florida can't buy a storm, lol
And TX is getting some spit rains across the state. Not going to do anything for the drought. And lake levels will be lower come early summer than what they are at now....as we spin into oblivion of unknown territory.
Attention turns to 97L for our next named system. Expect a 10-20% on the outlook this afternoon and a possible re-activation (again) for the invest 97L.

Kermit should find Rina a Tropical Storm. What killed her? Dry air aloft developed a boundary of cool air, which cooled off the convection, thus weakening Rina. Almost like a mini cold front.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Florida can't buy a storm, lol

Both Florida and Texas can't buy a storm.
538. eddye
reedzone so does the models develop 97 and do they show it hiting fl
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
If 97L merges with Rina, and grows to a depression, TS or whatever, how will it be named? Still Rina? Sean? Riean? Seanna? Spawn of Rina? LOL
Sombie. No letter Z.
say what you may, with the exception of Irene, 2011 season has been a whommmmmmp whommmmmmp year in the tropics, until next year.....
Quoting Buhdog:
Outflow from Rina making its way to SWFL today...does that count as affecting our weather? It may be the most we see from her.

What do you think caused Rina to breakdown the most?

1.Shear from the north
2.Land interaction
3."mid level" pockets of shear
4.shear from the southeast from 97L. Maybe a combo of say all of them? :)


5. Interaction with the Florida shield!! ;-)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
And this is the end result...LOL



...and more importantly.. this is a virtual end result, reality will be much more different. 384h out, come on!
Quoting CaribBoy:


...and more importantly.. this is a virtual end result, reality will be much more different. 384h out, come on!

Oh, no...16 days of someone asking "Is a Cat5 going to hit FL? When will the Cat3 hit FL? People in FL better start preparing now for the Cat4." LOL
Quoting CaribBoy:


...and more importanlty.. this is a virtual end result, reality will be much more different. 384h out, come on!

The models over 5 days should not even be published. That is 16 days away, the weather changes in matter of minutes the models have a hard time with 5 day out.
Quoting reedzone:
Attention turns to 97L for our next named system. Expect a 10-20% on the outlook this afternoon and a possible re-activation (again) for the invest 97L.

Kermit should find Rina a Tropical Storm. What killed her? Dry air aloft developed a boundary of cool air, which cooled off the convection, thus weakening Rina. Almost like a mini cold front.
,cooling convection????,convection is the cooling of the water vapor,producing clouds,so im not sure what your trying to describe,she ingested drier air from her north as soon as she moved far enough west,24hr water vap loop says it all,she gulped and it destroyed any core she had
Rina is firing a little burst of strong convectin and cold cloud tops near the center in the last hour.

any cooling convection would be stregthening her,ie hot towers are very cold cloud tops
Ex-97L. Poor structure, no outflow, but a lot of convection.

The National Hurricane Center just released the Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Tropical Storm Gert. Among the changes:

--Gert's maximum wind speed was raised from 50 knots to 55 knots;
--Gert's time as a named storm was extended for an additional six hours;
--The storm's Accumulated Cyclone Energy was raised from 1.6025 to 1.8525 (allowing Gert to at least temporarily leapfrog Don and Lee to move into 12th place on the 2011 ACE list).
551. 7544
hmm morning all dont give up on rina just yet at least we were right she is heading north now see what happens today

second you think they will reactivate 97l today looking real good now but will it have the same promblems that rina has now all in all i believe we still have to watch these two with one eye they could pull a fast one tia
Quoting stillwaiting:
,cooling convection????,convection is the cooling of the water vapor,producing clouds,so im not sure what your trying to describe,she ingested drier air from her north as soon as she moved far enough west,24hr water vap loop says it all,she gulped and it destroyed any core she had


I wouldnt pay any attention to it stillwaiting. I amongst others repeatedly noted Rina was pulling in dry air and reedzone argued till late last night, that I and others were wrong. He than told blogers that cloud tops were cooling and that meant strengthening for Rina. He than said rena would be a cat 2 again by late last night or in the morning before slowly weakening. This was all just 11 hours ago. And he gave us all **** cuz we were downcasters. Its all BS. Done ranting here!
Quoting Neapolitan:
The National Hurricane Center just released the Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Tropical Storm Gert. Among the changes:

--Gert's maximum wind speed was raised from 50 knots to 55 knots;
--Gert's time as a named storm was extended for an additional six hours;
--The storm's Accumulated Cyclone Energy was raised from 1.6025 to 1.8525 (allowing Gert to at least temporarily leapfrog Don and Lee to move into 12th place on the 2011 ACE list).

I'm interested in:

* Arlene
* Bret
* Philippe
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Exxon Mobil reported quarterly earnings of $10.3 billion on Thursday, a surge of 41% from a year earlier.

im predicting a naked rina within 12hrs imo
556. MahFL
There might actually be less than 20 kts of shear right now over Rina, also maybe less upwelled cooler waters as she actually moves forward a bit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm interested in:

* Arlene
* Bret
* Philippe

Me, too. The tougher ones always take awhile; we may be waiting until January again...
I think Bret may have been a hurricane for one point.

Dont give up on Rina.... really?
NHC thinks so.
Quoting RitaEvac:
And TX is getting some spit rains across the state. Not going to do anything for the drought. And lake levels will be lower come early summer than what they are at now....as we spin into oblivion of unknown territory.
Front has passed here, still in 70s with high humidity, rain amounts around here are expected to be a trace according to NWS, the cooler air is 200 miles behind the front, maybe northwest Texas will get some decent precip?
Quoting barotropic:


I wouldnt pay any attention to it stillwaiting. I amongst others repeatedly noted Rina was pulling in dry air and reedzone argued till late last night, that I and others were wrong. He than told blogers that cloud tops were cooling and that meant strengthening for Rina. He than said rena would be a cat 2 again by late last night or in the morning before slowly weakening. This was all just 11 hours ago. And he gave us all **** cuz we were downcasters. Its all BS. Done ranting here!


Thought I was the only one who noticed that.
what strikes me as odd, reedzone this is not directed at you. Peoples lives are at danger. I think these storms are awesome too when they are at sea away from people
Cheer leading a dying storm that could kill people seems morbid to me.
and the insistent will it hit florida is sad, people live outside florida folks
I found it...the reason for Rina's weakening two days ago and yesterday.



Upwelling was more of a problem than originally thought, I guess.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I found it...the reason for Rina's weakening two days ago and yesterday.



Upwelling was more of a problem than originally thought, I guess.


Now that makes perfect sense
looking at HH data and Belize radar and Sat loops Rean looks to be moving ENE I am still looking at more data so this may change but for now I keep it at ENE
Looks like Rina is going to be downgraded to a TS. She should dissipate in about 48-72hrs. I had a good feeling yesterday she would go down fast and be a TS before hitting the Yucatan. Her presentation was horrible with dry air and shear doing a number on her.
Quoting robert88:
Looks like Rina is going to be downgraded to a TS. She should dissipate in about 48-72hrs. I had a good feeling yesterday she would go down fast and be a TS before hitting the Yucatan. Her presentation was horrible with dry air and shear doing a number on her.

Well, it had a better appearance yesterday evening, but today, it really looks horrible...Recon finding a 65 mph TS I believe.
Quoting 12george1:

Rita was been dead since 2005.

Don't ya just love it when he makes a mistake, Makes an even bigger goose of himself.













HH is finding stronger winds on the E side
I am so ready for winter...I enjoy tracking hurricanes and stuff, but winter is far more less dangerous, and more peaceful. Plus, I love snow and ice and sleet.
NEW BLOG
MOrning all...LOOKS like Rina still has a little heart beat left, but not much...And NO ya many WishCasters.....Sorry NO Florida Storm....J/K of course.
The remnants of Rina and 97L should be absorbed into the trough and that will be the end of that. I still think we could get one more subtropical or TS before the season ends.
Extremely late but for the sake of continuity...
H.Rina's_6amGMT_ATCF : 26Oct_12pmGMT and ending 27Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneRina's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 27Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 19.034n87.581w-SJX is the endpoint of the 27Oct_6amGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline dumbbell at 19.095n87.543w-CTM is the same to the 2nd nearest airport for the 27Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Rina's travel-speed was 4.7mph(7.5k/h) on a heading of 316.4degrees(NW)
H.Rina was headed toward passage over Chacmool,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

Copy&paste cpe, cza, 19.095n87.543w-ctm, 19.034n87.581w-sjx, 17.7n85.3w-18.0n85.7w, 18.0n85.7w-18.3n86.1w, 18.3n86.1w-18.6n86.7w, 18.6n86.7w-18.9n87.0w, 18.6n86.7w-19.41n87.515w, tuy into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 27Oct_6amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.