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Hurricane Rina a strong category 2

By: Angela Fritz 9:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2011

Hurricane Rina is now a strong category 2, and is slowly moving west-northwest toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is packing winds of 110 mph and is crawling west at a 3 mph. Cancun radar shows some showers approaching the peninsula. Since this morning, satellite imagery has shown Rina becoming slightly more organized, and outflow has increased on all sides of the hurricane. Rina's eye appeared this afternoon, as well, though clouds continue to obscure it most of the time. Recent satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing around the eye (Figure 1). At 2pm EDT, wind shear was low (5-10 knots) near the cyclone, which is likely aiding it to intensify, but shear expected to increase over the next couple of days. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission reported maximum surface winds of 108 mph north of the eye using the SMFR surface wind instrument, an observation that was not flagged for poor data quality. If the current satellite imagery and organization of the hurricane is indicative, Rina will probably reach major hurricane status tonight or early tomorrow. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on the way to Rina this evening, and a NOAA-9 Gulfstream is also currently investigating the hurricane and sending back dropsonde information, which will be valuable for model forecasts.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Rina taken around 12:45pm EDT on October 25. Image source: NOAA.

Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina hasn't changed much since this morning. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours, though its slow speed could act to decrease sea surface temperatures around the hurricane, and thus decrease the amount of fuel available for further intensification. This afternoon's computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 12 hours before turning to the north toward the tip of the Yucatan. This initial forecast is in agreement with the GFS and HWRF tracks, though beyond Thursday, the Center is forecasting Rina to decrease in intensity and make a hard right turn toward the Florida Straits. Regardless, people in Belize and especially the Yucatan Peninsula should be prepared for major hurricane conditions, including a storm surge up to 7 feet above normal tide conditions, and rainfall up to 16 inches.

Jeff will be back tomorrow morning with an update.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'd be surprised if it wasn't stormy. Quite the low.
Very strong.
Levi what is your home town? A recently retired co-worker of mine is from Ketchikan...

Based on the 0057Z obs from the HH... shows a pressure at 964.3 near the center with a west wind at 21 mph... so minimum pressure could very well be still lowering, e.g. strengthening storm.
17.4n83.8w, 17.3n84.3w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Rina's_12amGMT_ATCF
17.3n83.8w, 17.3n84.3w, 17.5n84.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 25Oct_12amGMT and ending 26Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 26Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 16.414n88.452w-BGK is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 25Oct_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbell at 18.655n87.726w-SJX is the same for the 25Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Rina's travel-speed was 3.2mph(5.1k/h) on a heading of 316.2degrees(NW)
H.Rina was headed toward passage over Xelha,QuintanaRoo,Mexico ~3days12hours from now

Copy&paste 18.655n87.726w-sjx, 16.414n88.452w-bgk, 17.2n83.2w-17.3n83.5w, 17.3n83.5w-17.3n83.8w, 17.3n83.8w-17.3n84.3w, 17.3n84.3w-17.5n84.5w, 17.3n84.3w-20.296n87.364w, tuy into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 25Oct_6pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.



eats side is much much wetter than the (now) dry west side

Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Based on the 0057Z obs from the HH... shows a pressure at 964.3 near the center with a west wind at 21 mph... so minimum pressure could very well be still lowering, e.g. strengthening storm.


EWRC?
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon (Kermit) just hit 964.3 mb (~ 28.48 inHg), not sure if they are all the way through..


No they wouldnt be all the way through as they still have a west wind at that location at 21 mph. But close. Could be 963/964 mb at center point.
Quoting Skyepony:
Recon (Kermit) just hit 964.3 mb (~ 28.48 inHg), not sure if they are all the way through..

Poor "Kermit", the NOAA aircraft named after Kermit the Frog from Sesame Street. Yes, Rina may not be the prettiest looking Cane, BUT, she is slowly intensifying at the moment!
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.
Time: 00:57:00Z
Coordinates: 17.3667N 84.6167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.9 mb (~ 22.23 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,212 meters (~ 7,257 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 964.3 mb (~ 28.48 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 270° at 19 knots (From the W at ~ 21.8 mph)
Air Temp: 22.8°C (~ 73.0°F)
Dew Pt: 13.0°C (~ 55.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots* (~ 28.7 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr* (~ 0.04 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting HurricaneVSafety:
Models shifted west and a little north.





BAMD takes it right into Tampa bay, what is the DOOMCON level now? Status on shower curtains?
504. aspectre 1:21 AM GMT on October 26, 2011

Thanks for that info, my eyes weren't playing tricks on me. Could be a jog but Rina is heading NW atm.
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.


Well, that means Houston is clearly doomed.
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.



if ur going to blog something like that show some proof, maybe a link?
Quoting HurricaneVSafety:


EWRC?


That's what I was thinking too.
Quoting tropicfreak:


BAMD takes it right into Tampa bay, what is the DOOMCON level now? Status on shower curtains?


BAM's are about as useful as Joe Bastardi.
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.
you sure it wasn't Jeff Bastardi ???
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL 965 MB LOW RESIDES OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION BETWEEN
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHORAGE THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING COOPER LANDING...GLEN ALPS IN ANCHORAGE...AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS NORTHEAST OF VALDEZ.

A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE
Y-K DELTA REGION THAT IS PUSHING NORTH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
POURING SOUTH CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Looks like the top of Rina got blown by shear from the S ever so slightly to obscure her little eye.

Don't see a clear eyewall replacement on MIMIC but some sort of restructuring. Moving away from higher shear though.
Quoting njdevil:


BAM's are about as useful as Joe Bastardi.


+1
Quoting hunkerdown:
you sure it wasn't Jeff Bastardi ???


I heard he owns a collection of fish curtains...
Quoting njdevil:


Well, that means Houston is clearly doomed.


LOL
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm more inclined to believe it is an EWRC, what do you think Tropical?


That would be my guess,didnt see dry slots, we will see soon enough
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like the top of Rina got blown by shear from the SE ever so slightly to obscure her little eye.

Don't see a clear eyewall replacement on MIMIC but some sort of restructuring. Moving away from higher shear though.

Looks like its organizing there on MMIC.
Quoting chrisdscane:



if ur going to blog something like that show some proof, maybe a link?


Look about 6-7 tweets down in the link below. He did talk about a Cat. 1 hurricane heading towards South Florida.

These are his exact tweets:

"Anyway, we have a chance of history, snow around NYC while a tropical cyclone is reaching S Florida"

and

"I have it as a cat one when it comes through the Keys and south Florida.The bigger wx story may be tree snapping snow in ne on wknd"


Link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


That would be my guess,didnt see dry slots, we will see soon enough


Don't think dry air is affecting the core, but it's definitely affecting the NW quadrant. Think Skye was right may have had a little bout with shear, MIMIC shows the eye wall rebuilding.
Based on where the HH found weakest winds and lowest pressure... it appears as if the center is near 17.4N 84.6 W (just slightly SOUTH of due west of 8pm center location by the NHC).
Kermit (recon) last fix..Highest flight winds 93kts, surface 86 knots (~ 98.9 mph), center ~17.367N 84.617W, 964.3 mb (~ 28.48 inHg).
Quoting alvarig1263:


Look about 6 tweets down. Joe didn't say it exactly the way "wunderwood" stated it, but he did talk about a hurricane heading towards South Florida.

These are his exact words:

"Anyway, we have a chance of history, snow around NYC while a tropical cyclone is reaching S Florida"


Link


Found it:

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
I have it as a cat one when it comes through the Keys and south Florida.The bigger wx story may be tree snapping snow in ne on wknd
Quoting alvarig1263:


Look about 6 tweets down in the link below. Joe didn't say it exactly the way "wunderwood" stated it, but he did talk about a hurricane heading towards South Florida.

These are his exact words:

"Anyway, we have a chance of history, snow around NYC while a tropical cyclone is reaching S Florida"


Link



ur right


@BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi


I have it as a cat one when it comes through the Keys and south Florida.The bigger wx story may be tree snapping snow in ne on wknd




2 hours agovia web








------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Retweeted by morelectricheat and others
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.


Yes, and I think he said 10 other hurricanes including 3 majors were going to hit the U.S. this year.
Quoting charlottefl:


Don't think dry air is affecting the core, but it's definitely affecting the NW quadrant. Think Skye was right may have had a little bout with shear, MIMIC shows the eye wall rebuilding.

I agree with that.
Just being honest here.....Rina is clearly having some issues tonight despite a drop in pressure. Dry air seems to be the culprit. With that in mind Take a look at this loop below

Link

I have no idea how this storm could go thru that dry air on its way to florida or the keys and remain even remotely a TC.....That dry air plus upper level winds....wow.
Quoting Skyepony:
Kermit (recon) last fix..Highest flight winds 93kts, surface 86 knots (~ 98.9 mph), center ~17.367N 84.617W, 964.3 mb (~ 28.48 inHg).


Hasn't really strengthen much since the first recon pass.
The guy is great..tell me what met background you have...I have 14 years but never comment here...most on this blog should try and learn some common sense forecast techniques instead of worshipping models..


Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.
Quoting barotropic:
Just being honest here.....Rina is clearly having some issues tonight despite a drop in pressure. Dry air seems to be the culprit. With that in mind Take a look at this loop below

Link

I have no idea how this storm could go thru that dry air on its way to florida or the keys and remain even remotely a TC.....That dry air plus upper level winds....wow.


Yup.
Quoting BenBIogger:


I heard he owns a collection of fish curtains...

I heard Jeff Bastardi is Joe's midget twin.
Quoting aspectre:
17.4n83.8w, 17.3n84.3w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Rina's_12amGMT_ATCF
17.3n83.8w, 17.3n84.3w, 17.5n84.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 25Oct_12amGMT and ending 26Oct_12amGMT

The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneRina's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 26Oct_12amGMT,
the coastline dumbbell at 16.414n88.452w-BGK is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 25Oct_6pmGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbell at 18.655n87.726w-SJX is the same for the 25Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
H.Rina's travel-speed was 3.2mph(5.1k/h) on a heading of 316.2degrees(NW)
H.Rina was headed toward passage over Xelha,QuintanaRoo,Mexico ~3days12hours from now

Copy&paste 18.655n87.726w-sjx, 16.414n88.452w-bgk, 17.2n83.2w-17.3n83.5w, 17.3n83.5w-17.3n83.8w, 17.3n83.8w-17.3n84.3w, 17.3n84.3w-17.5n84.5w, 17.3n84.3w-20.296n87.364w, tuy into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 25Oct_6pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the projections.
Im still not understanding the point of these dude!
Gonzo is about done with his untasked dropsonde chucking trip around Rina. Be interesting to see what the models do after ingesting that data..
Quoting barotropic:
Just being honest here.....Rina is clearly having some issues tonight despite a drop in pressure. Dry air seems to be the culprit. With that in mind Take a look at this loop below

Link

I have no idea how this storm could go thru that dry air on its way to florida or the keys and remain even remotely a TC.....That dry air plus upper level winds....wow.


Well while all that dry air might be sitting there now, there will be a burst of moisture to Rina's east from 97L and as the cold front approaches it will also help to moisten up the atmosphere some what. Although condtions won't be ideal, they will improve slightly.
Quoting Chicklit:

I heard Jeff Bastardi is Joe's midget twin.


lol.
EWRC pressure wouldnt be dropping if it was weakening
Quoting chrisdscane:
EWRC pressure wouldnt be dropping if it was weakening


The first recon pass from gonzo had some 964MB readings. I really doubt it is going through a EWRC phase.
Quoting BenBIogger:


The first recon pass from gonzo had some 964MB readings. I really doubt it is going through a EWRC phase.



so what would explain the drop in preasure but the pressentation not looking as good
Quoting Tazmanian:
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL 965 MB LOW RESIDES OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION BETWEEN
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHORAGE THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING COOPER LANDING...GLEN ALPS IN ANCHORAGE...AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS NORTHEAST OF VALDEZ.

A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE
Y-K DELTA REGION THAT IS PUSHING NORTH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
POURING SOUTH CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Stronger then Rina lol
Quoting barotropic:
Just being honest here.....Rina is clearly having some issues tonight despite a drop in pressure. Dry air seems to be the culprit. With that in mind Take a look at this loop below

Link

I have no idea how this storm could go thru that dry air on its way to florida or the keys and remain even remotely a TC.....That dry air plus upper level winds....wow.

Remember Paula from last summer? Rina may meet the same fate. Rina might get picked up and shredded to pieces...
Quoting BenBIogger:


Hasn't really strengthen much since the first recon pass.


AF306 last was 970mb. Kermit since hit 962.7mb, 969.4mb & now 964.3mb.

Very much up fluctuating. Your right, not strengthened much.

Ah finally a vortex message.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 01:25Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 27
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 0:57Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 84°37'W (17.3833N 84.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 236 miles (379 km) to the E (92°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSW (194°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 295° at 86kts (From the WNW at ~ 99.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (194°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,479m (8,133ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,455m (8,054ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the quadrant at 23:29Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 95kts (~ 109.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WINDS 103 KT 2329Z NW QUAD
SONDE SPLASHED AT 967MB WITH 16 KT SURFACE WINDS
5.2 quake hits Japan's Fukushima prefecture

NEW YORK (AP) — A moderate earthquake has shaken the northeastern Japanese prefecture where the much more massive earthquake and tsunami touched off the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl earlier this year.
The 5.2-magnitude quake struck Fukushima Prefecture overnight just after 2 a.m. local time Wednesday (1700 GMT Tuesday). Its epicenter was on the coast near the town of Iwaki, 115 miles (186 km) north of Tokyo.
Fukushima was severely hit by the quake and tsunami in March that left more than 21,000 people dead or missing.
The Wednesday quake was about 70 miles (120 km south) of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear facility.
Another 5.3 quake later Wednesday hit 262 miles (423 kilometers) southwest of Tokyo, off the Japan coast.
Rina not lookin great, but her forward speed seems to have increased last couple of hours. At least it appears that way to me.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Im still not understanding the point of these dude!


I have absolutely no idea what his posts mean or the value of them. Someone must because he keeps posting them.
Quoting HurricaneVSafety:


EWRC?
could be
Experimental FIM 850 mb. winds at 72 hrs.



250 mb. upper level winds

how can it go under a EWRC if there no eye?
Joe Bastardi knows his stuff. The bashers are clueless.
555. JLPR2
I see we finally have a closed eyewall, but lower winds.
Hmm... those two just don't seem to fit.
is her eyewall closed?


LinkCIMSSSite

Offers a great menu for viewing Rina.
I won't make it to 11 to see what NHC says.
Goodnight and I hope everyone along the northern Yucatan has preparations in place.
Quoting chrisdscane:
is her eyewall closed?


yes..
Quoting chrisdscane:
is her eyewall closed?



Pretty close

Quoting JLPR2:
I see we finally have a closed eyewall, but lower winds.
Hmm... those two just don't seem to fit.

We'll see strengthening tonight and tomorrow with a closed eyewall.
Quoting chrisdscane:
is her eyewall closed?

Yes, finally.
she cant have an EWRC considering she didnt really have an eye. perhaps she peaked?
Quoting jrweatherman:


I have absolutely no idea what his posts mean or the value of them. Someone must because he keeps posting them.


Just shows you where the storm has been, and how far it is from "X" city if it traveled on it's current path.
Just a bunch of geographical stats...
Quoting Tazmanian:
how can it go under a EWRC if there no eye?


Recon flew through it not long ago, 17nm across, closed.

Notice vortex message.
Quoting JLPR2:
I see we finally have a closed eyewall, but lower winds.
Hmm... those two just don't seem to fit.

Her hurricane force winds are in a narrow 30 mile band. It will be very difficult to find a large swath of 110+ mph winds, unless they spend hours criss crossing Rina.

They most likely leave Rina as a 105 or 110 MPH hurricane come 11 PM EDT :)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
she cant have an EWRC considering she didnt really have an eye. perhaps she peaked?

She has an eye, and a nice one, its just not visible right now because very cold cloud tops keep bursting in the eywall, obscuring the eye..I highly doubt she has peaked...probably has 5-10 kt. more to go (115-125 mph).
Quoting Skyepony:


Recon flew through it not long ago, 17nm across, closed.

Notice vortex message.



ok
Quoting charlottefl:


Just shows you where the storm has been, and how far it is from "X" city if it traveled on it's current path.
Just a bunch of geographical stats...
What you are saying is as clear as mud. Still has no value.
maybe she just like, well, trying to reform her core we know soooo litle about theese massive storms even with HH we still have no clue she could be doing a number of things its a good sign her eye wall is closed for intesification we'll see like i said she prolly just in the dressing room atm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

She has an eye, and a nice one, its just not visible right now because very cold cloud tops keep bursting in the eywall, obscuring the eye..I highly doubt she has peaked...probably has 5-10 kt. more to go (115-125 mph).
we will see. there is some dry air in the NW quad but its not really bad. actually less than 3 hours ago... shear is eh not bad.. i think she will peak at 120mph. 11pm should be 110
512 ProgressivePulse [inre 504 aspectre] "Thanks for that info, my eyes weren't playing tricks on me. Could be a jog but Rina is heading NW atm."

That's why I started posting 'em in the way back when. WUbers useta spend hours bickering about whether a storm had zigged north or zagged west.

538 BDADUDE "Im still not understanding the point of these dude!"

I've given rather lengthy explanations before. Perhaps you haven't caught them. If not, click on the link.
If you have, I don't know what to say except that other people find the mappings to be useful.
Just curious, but where do Kermit and Gonzo fly out of? Meaning their home base.
Next image and you will see the eye starting to clear out.

Quoting Tazmanian:
how can it go under a EWRC if there no eye?


There is a closed, 15 mile in diameter eye, it just isn't very visible on satellite imagery, but the wall is closed and an eye is present.

EWRC stands for an eye wall replacement cycle. So since there is an "eye wall" then and "ewrc" could occur.
Quoting BDADUDE:
What you are saying is as clear as mud. Still has no value.


It's like the XTRAP except is has more geographical information, such as distance from certain cities, how long it would take to travel there on it's current speed and heading. And where the storm has been since a certain point in time (storm history). I like seeing it, but I'm a map person so..
Absolutely...the people who follow him and subscribe like myself and I know you do can really appreciate his expertise. It really bothers me when people who never really investigate his knowledge bash him. There so many misfits on here who have no clue about forecasting etc.and those like myself who worked for the NWS usually just watch the clowns on here and lay low because it's useless to give a professional piece of input.


Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Joe Bastardi knows his stuff. The bashers are clueless.
Quoting DJMedik91:
Just curious, but where do Kermit and Gonzo fly out of? Meaning their home base.


I'm pretty sure it's MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa. I'll double check tho..
All of us could take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to criticism.
Quoting charlottefl:


It's like the XTRAP except is has more geographical information, such as distance from certain cities, how long it would take to travel there on it's current speed and heading. And where the storm has been since a certain point in time (storm history). I like seeing it, but I'm a map person so..


I guess that is important information to someone on this blog.
i know whats causing rina to look eh. she injected a little bit of dry air in her NW side which cause her western side to look eh and some of it got into her core and prevented stregnthing. now looks like she fully digested that and she might start getting her act together
To carry out its mission, NOAA maintains a fleet of aircraft to acquire data on the atmosphere, environment, and geography. These aircraft conduct various missions such as flying into hurricanes and winter storms to determine their intensity and direction; conducting air quality studies; surveying snow pack for hydrologic forecasting, marine mammals and fish for resource assessments, and changing coastlines for cartography; and undertaking remote sensing and aerial photography projects. The fleet is managed by NOAA's Office of Marine and Aviation Operations Aircraft Operations Center, which is located at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Experimental FIM 850 mb. winds at 72 hrs.



250 mb. upper level winds


do you mind explaining this?
Eye wall is closed. I'm ready for some RI!
are hurricane is looking a little rag it tonight
Quoting weatherman12345:

do you mind explaining this?
Well the top image is closest to the surface winds and the bottom image is closest to the upper level winds, I'm comparing the two to see how much damage the trough does to the storm.
Quoting chrisdscane:
maybe she just like, well, trying to reform her core we know soooo litle about theese massive storms even with HH we still have no clue she could be doing a number of things its a good sign her eye wall is closed for intesification we'll see like i said she prolly just in the dressing room atm
lol
Quoting alvarig1263:
Eye wall is closed. I'm ready for some RI!
I am too...but I would be selfish not to think about the folks along the Yucatan.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
lol


she didnt like the bikini she had on
Quoting chrisdscane:


she didnt like the bikini she had on
lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
138 PM AKDT TUE OCT 25 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POWERFUL 965 MB LOW RESIDES OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION BETWEEN
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG WEATHER FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR ANCHORAGE THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING COOPER LANDING...GLEN ALPS IN ANCHORAGE...AND THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS NORTHEAST OF VALDEZ.

A LARGE DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAKER LOW OVER THE
Y-K DELTA REGION THAT IS PUSHING NORTH. COLD AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
POURING SOUTH CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT


More to help bomb-out the Alaskan Low!!!
Rina had some problems a little while ago, but it looks like it is getting back on its feet again. Not sure if the NHC will go with 110 mph or 115 mph at 11PM.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I am too...but I would be selfish not to think about the folks along the Yucatan.


I mean I am no expert but at this point I don't think Rina is going to make a direct landfall. I think she will get close but I believe she may be able to stay right offshore and continue intensifying.
Eye coming back?

Quoting alvarig1263:


Kermit is from Tampa. Not sure about Gonzo.


The NOAA aircraft fly out of MacDill AFB in Tampa and the Navy's WC-130J's fly out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Thanks charlottefl and alvarig1263. I was almost certain I saw one of them take off, since I am not far at all from Macdill, but couldn't tell the type of plane from a distance.
Usually it's just the KC-135 air tankers or the occasional F-16, but it is an Air Force base so a C-130 isnt out of the question.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well the top image is closest to the surface winds and the bottom image is closest to the upper level winds, I'm comparing the two to see how much damage the trough does to the storm.
and the result?
Quoting alvarig1263:


I mean I am no expert but at this point I don't think Rina is going to make a direct landfall. I think she will get close but I believe she may be able to stay right offshore and continue intensifying.


i respect ur opinion but she would have to climb northward a good amount to do that what do u think
Quoting alvarig1263:


I mean I am no expert but at this point I don't think Rina is going to make a direct landfall. I think she will get close but I believe she may be able to stay right offshore and continue intensifying.
Well I didn't think of it that way for all we know the worst of the weather stays just offshore and seeing that she has a small core of Hurricane force winds it will make all the matter in the world if it stays 30 miles to the east.
Quoting sar2401:


The NOAA aircraft fly out of MacDill AFB in Tampa and the Navy's WC-130J's fly out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi.



United States Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
Thanks to you as well sar2401.....
Quoting chrisdscane:


i respect ur opinion but she would have to climb northward a good amount to do that what do u think


Well the official NHC track has her just skirting by the Yucatan peninsula and the GFS is also staying offshore. The other models take here onto land but not for long. All I know is that the beating the Yucatan will get will surely not be as bad as what they got from Wilma. So that is a good thing.
Quoting weatherman12345:
and the result?
A sheared system weakening rapidly as it approaches FL.
eye rebuilding. inner eyewall almost complete. rina has ended her weakining phase
watching the last 24 hrs of wind shear readings at

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

shows the pocket of heavy shear may be moving atl at a faster pace now. it looks like the center of the shear is being extended horizontally. if this shifts out of the way and her outflow moistens the gom in front of her could she get conus side as a cat?
lol why r my pics coming out as an X?
Quoting odinslightning:
watching the last 24 hrs of wind shear readings at

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr& ;zoom=&time=

shows the pocket of heavy shear may be moving atl at a faster pace now. it looks like the center of the shear is being extended horizontally. if this shifts out of the way and her outflow moistens the gom in front of her could she get conus side as a cat?



also, what is the forecast for the trough or low that is expected to pull her conus way? anyone know?
Quoting barotropic:
Just being honest here.....Rina is clearly having some issues tonight despite a drop in pressure. Dry air seems to be the culprit. With that in mind Take a look at this loop below

Link

I have no idea how this storm could go thru that dry air on its way to florida or the keys and remain even remotely a TC.....That dry air plus upper level winds....wow.


No doubt about it,Rina gonna have a very rough trip on the forecast track.Odds are she will weaken as she goes,but all we can do is watch and wait,she's definetly prepping herself best she can for the trip.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#Rina
Quoting GTcooliebai:
A sheared system weakening rapidly as it approaches FL.
in that particular model, what is intensity as it approaches the fla area
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect S Fla and the Keys as a cat 1 hurricane.


I should message Bastardi and ask him what the winning lottery numbers are.
Quoting odinslightning:
watching the last 24 hrs of wind shear readings at

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.ph p?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr& ;zoom=&time=

shows the pocket of heavy shear may be moving atl at a faster pace now. it looks like the center of the shear is being extended horizontally. if this shifts out of the way and her outflow moistens the gom in front of her could she get conus side as a cat?


Rina's already trying her best to moisten the southeastern GOM ahead of her. If your scenario plays out too, FL could be in for a surprise. I'm in Naples, FL, and I will and encourage others to keep watching this closely.
Quoting alvarig1263:


I mean I am no expert but at this point I don't think Rina is going to make a direct landfall. I think she will get close but I believe she may be able to stay right offshore and continue intensifying.


It's going to be a matter of about 70 miles one way or the other. Stay 35 miles offshore and it will be mostly rain and a little wind for Cozumel and Cancun. Inland about 35 miles and both get pretty well crushed by 100+ mph winds. Cozumel is just starting to recover from a direct hit by Wilma six years ago. No one has the ability to make this kind of prediction over 36 hours out, so a lot of people and property are at risk. It's, at the least, poor taste to show glee that a hurricane may be getting its act together and bearing down on an area that's suffered a lot over the last decade.
616. JLPR2
While Rina gets ready to show its closed eye for the first time, the CATL keeps trying.

Quoting weatherman12345:
in that particular model, what is intensity as it approaches the fla area


A 50 mph tropical storm, and then only if you're in the Keys or far south Florida.
Quoting weatherman12345:
in that particular model, what is intensity as it approaches the fla area
The highest I see is 40-45 knots. Here's a Link to that model.


latest
Quoting alvarig1263:


Rina's already trying her best to moisten the southeastern GOM ahead of her. If your scenario plays out too, FL could be in for a surprise. I'm in Naples, FL, and I will and encourage others to keep watching this closely.



thats kinda what i see as well. i think a large part of what is about to play out will boil down to the large pocket of wind shear over east central gom (centered over florida) right now.....does it get out of the way in time to allow her to come conus fla? if so and if she gains some speed but not too fast she could feed her environment with moisture (provided a lack of wind shear is prevalent), at least enough to maintain as a cat 2 to very minor cat 2 to cat 1 cane.

if she somehow maintains intensity or even grows she could feed moisture into that wind shear pocket (that is what is happening on moisture loops right now). if she can stay down long enough she may kill that shear with bouyancy as it stacks up in the atl heading eastbound.
Link
Folks in the Yucatan are getting ready. CNN link included.
Quoting sar2401:


It's going to be a matter of about 70 miles one way or the other. Stay 35 miles offshore and it will be mostly rain and a little wind for Cozumel and Cancun. Inland about 35 miles and both get pretty well crushed by 100+ mph winds. Cozumel is just starting to recover from a direct hit by Wilma six years ago. No one has the ability to make this kind of prediction over 36 hours out, so a lot of people and property are at risk. It's, at the least, poor taste to show glee that a hurricane may be getting its act together and bearing down on an area that's suffered a lot over the last decade.


I agree 100%, while hurricanes and rapidly intesnifying ones at that are dramatic and exciting, they're only really fun when they're stirrin' up some fish in the Atlantic. Not as fun when they're plowing through the Caribbean.
Quoting weatherman12345:
in that particular model, what is intensity as it approaches the fla area

Most likely a decaying Tropical storm
historical models provided by Orcasystems (thanks by the way)

Link

spaghetti does favor the projected tracks into fla, and it does appear those canes tended to be way stronger than other historical tracks.
I'm off for the night guys, have fun.

See ya.
A ton of moisture (97L) is heading right towards Rina and is already starting to interact with her outer bands. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow. Extra moisture on her east and southeast side should help her as it moves closer and begins to merge overnight. The NW quadrant though will be the area that is exposed as she gets closer to the GOM.

Quoting odinslightning:
historical models provided by Orcasystems (thanks by the way)

Link

spaghetti does favor the projected tracks into fla, and it does appear those canes tended to be way stronger than other historical tracks.
Good observation and I noticed that as well, see a lot of reds on that map plowing into FL. not saying it's going to happen that way, but climatology favors it.
Quoting alvarig1263:
A ton of moisture (97L) is heading right towards Rina and is already starting to interact with her outer bands. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow. Extra moisture on her east and southeast side should help her as it moves closer and begins to merge overnight. The NW quadrant though will be the area that is exposed as she gets closer to the GOM.



Man thats a LOT of dry air in the GOM.
Quoting odinslightning:



thats kinda what i see as well. i think a large part of what is about to play out will boil down to the large pocket of wind shear over east central gom (centered over florida) right now.....does it get out of the way in time to allow her to come conus fla? if so and if she gains some speed but not too fast she could feed her environment with moisture (provided a lack of wind shear is prevalent), at least enough to maintain as a cat 2 to very minor cat 2 to cat 1 cane.

if she somehow maintains intensity or even grows she could feed moisture into that wind shear pocket (that is what is happening on moisture loops right now). if she can stay down long enough she may kill that shear with bouyancy as it stacks up in the atl heading eastbound.
637. JLPR2
Quoting JasonCoolmanBack2005:
No Eye!!!!


Let me complete that phrase...

No visible Eye!!!!
Quoting JLPR2:


Let me complete that phrase...

No visible Eye!!!!


there's an eye alright. other than the intrusion of dry air that elongated her slightly for a time she is very symmetrical.
641. A4Guy
At the moment...Rina is looking less impressive than say 6 hours ago. I wonder if she has peaked, and that is why we are seeing the models shift more towards a solution that keeps her away from the southern FL peninsula.
Quoting JasonCoolmanBack2005:
I don't see dry air!!! I see some big storms!!!


You just posted a picture that shows all the dry air in the northern GOM. We also don't care if you're eating pizza or won a lottery game. I suggest you take down those irrelevant posts before the admins do so for you. We are in the middle of a major hurricane and supposed to be sticking to the rules, as spelled out by the link above the post box.
Quoting A4Guy:
At the moment...Rina is looking less impressive than say 6 hours ago. I wonder if she has peaked, and that is why we are seeing the models shift more towards a solution that keeps her away from the southern FL peninsula.
Yeah for some reason one of my local met. said a stronger storm would track farther north and a weaker storm farther south. I always thought it was the opposite???
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah for some reason one of my local met. said a stronger storm would track farther north and a weaker storm farther south. I always thought it was the opposite???


The local met is correct.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah for some reason one of my local met. said a stronger storm would track farther north and a weaker storm farther south. I always thought it was the opposite???


the better stacked the more poleward it will move unless something is blocking its northward movement
It's all about land interaction (Yuc folks, you're getting it regardless).

Wilma interacted with Yuc quite a bit (entire center over land) and was still quite a storm under heavy sheer and all the same negatives.

Big difference, imo, if she goes completely over land vs. not.

Wilma's advantage with anti-cyclone did not carry out of the carib.
Quoting will40:


the better stacked the more poleward it will move unless something is blocking its northward movement
Oh ok I think I was getting mixed up with a weaker storm heading more west than a stronger storm when there is a weakness involved.
Updating my blog I accidentally hit "no comments allowed". How do I change it back?
Kermit is headed home.. AF304 is on the way to Rina.
Never mind, got it.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh ok I think I was getting mixed up with a weaker storm heading more west than a stronger storm when there is a weakness involved.


well you are correct the weaker storm will follow the shallow steering currents
this blog is screwed up. it says error on page

HURRICANE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
0300 UTC WED OCT 26 2011


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 84.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
RINA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME...

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 25
Location: 17.5°N 84.8°W
Max sustained: 110 mph
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 966 mb
What happened to all the great bloggers that used to post here? This blog is going down...


Definitely trying to clear out an eye again.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
this blog is screwed up. it says error on page

Because of Jasons posts.
Raw T numbers went for a ride up to 6 just over 3 hrs ago, now 3.9.
if Ten people report him his posts will vanish
No TRMM pass of Rina today. Yesterday's was not a good pass. Maybe tomorrow..
666. JasonCoolmanBack2005 10:55 PM EDT on October 25, 2011
im out....last thought....timing is everything....
Quoting Skyepony:
Raw T numbers went for a ride up to 6 just over 3 hrs ago, now 3.9.
likely because of the disappearance of the eye. since it is solely based on satellite presentation. The eye should be coming back soon with the completed eye wall and bring up the T's once more.
Eye may become visible again soon, notice the intense spiral banding along the CDO wrapping around the eye in the last few frames.

THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY.



well, nothing new at 11pm
hello
Notables from the Miami NWS

000
FXUS62 KMFL 260137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
ISSUED 725 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011


RAIN
CHANCES. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INCREASE...WHICH LEADS TO
LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND WITH HURRICANE RINA.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT SOMEWHERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT SEPARATING THE VERY
DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND VERY MOIST AIR
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
20-40 PERCENT RANGE AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVERHEAD.

HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITHIN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
12Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTS RINA MAY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN...GETTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD ACT TO STEER
RINA TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND GET SHEARED
APART AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS
THIS SITUATION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



United States Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron


And thanks to you as well!
97L is starting to fuel Rina. It is being absorbed into the outer bands of Rina already, wouldn't that help it intensify or fight off the dry air?
Just curious, any of you Broward or Miami-Dade folks...has Max Mayfield been on ? If so, what were his thoughts ?
I have finished my account of how a hurricane in Samoa stopped a war between Germany and the United States. It is a long entry. Probably too long. And everyone is paying attention to Rina, not a hurricane from 122 years ago. But I hope some of you will find it interesting.

Here it is.
Hi, Hunker. Max was just on Channel 10. He didn't think much of the GFS model. He actually snickered. He said if anything does move towards Florida, it should be a weak system to due high shear. The other channels were in close agreement.
Well that was pretty cool. I used the link provided earlier in the day by alvarig1263 (I was at work and couldn't play with it at the time) and got to watch recon on google earth with live updating.

For anyone else who's interested and might not know how:

Link

Click on the Live Recon Data link in Google Earth to download a .kmz file, open that in Google Earth to get recon data. Click the Weather button in Google Earth to see satellite imagery. There's also a handy tutorial link on that page.

Thanks alvarig1263!
Oh and don't forget, we still have DMAX to go through plus more interaction with 97L tomorrow should sustain Rina for a while...
Quoting WoodyFL:
Hi, Hunker. Max was just on Channel 10. He didn't think much of the GFS model. He actually snickered. He said if anything does move towards Florida, it should be a weak system to due high shear. The other channels were in close agreement.
thanks...funny that you say he didn't think much of the GFS solution, made no mention of the GFDL ?
NHC doesnt seem bullish on SoFlo scenario.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Oh and don't forget, we still have DMAX to go through plus more interaction with 97L tomorrow should sustain Rina for a while...
Dmin/Dmax does not have any effect on a 'cane.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Well that was pretty cool. I used the link provided earlier in the day by alvarig1263 (I was at work and couldn't play with it at the time) and got to watch recon on google earth with live updating.

For anyone else who's interested and might not know how:

Link

Click on the Live Recon Data link in Google Earth to download a .kmz file, open that in Google Earth to get recon data. Click the Weather button in Google Earth to see satellite imagery. There's also a handy tutorial link on that page.

Thanks alvarig1263!


Thanks for reposting that SherwoodSpirit and alvarig1263 for posting it originally. It is pretty cool!
Lets see soon what the 00z model package has as they have been feeded with the data from the gulfstream jet.
Hunker, I believe his words were..paraphrasing. "The GFS has Rina moving North of Cuba and moving back into the Caribbean back towards the Yucatan, if you can believe that". He then moved on quickly. I don't remember him mentioning the GFDL, but pointed out the differences in the models' thinking due to the timing of the trough and the high shear which is expected in the Southeast Gulf.
well Jasons posts are gone it works everytime
Good evening

Rina will very soon make the turn to the NW and N as the weakness shown in the steering below amplifies.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I have finished my account of how a hurricane in Samoa stopped a war between Germany and the United States. It is a long entry. Probably too long. And everyone is paying attention to Rina, not a hurricane from 122 years ago. But I hope some of you will find it interesting.

Here it is.


I'll do that after I finish reading "War and Peace". Only joking BB. We always enjoy those blogs.
RINA Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

..click image for Loop.



Thanks Woody. I hope you like it. I'll do two more before I'm out of here.
Good evening everyone. I see Rina still isn't a major hurricane. I'd still expect her to bottom out as such though.
It appears that Rina does not look as healthy as earlier in the day on Tuesday.
The massive area of dry air to the N and NW is beginning to take a slight toll on Rina.

It will be interesting to see what happens during the nighttime hours, when hurricanes normally get a new lease on life, if and when that is possible.
THE LATEST
*Click on images to enlarge (images can further be enlarged in Link Window by clicking anywhere on them)

Quoting FLWaterFront:
It appears that Rina does not look as healthy as earlier in the day on Tuesday.
The massive area of dry air to the N and NW is beginning to take a slight toll on Rina.

It will be interesting to see what happens during the nighttime hours, when hurricanes normally get a new lease on life, if and when that is possible.


Diurnal maximum doesn't really affect mature hurricanes to the degree it does weaker entities. It is true that convection universally increases during such episodes, though.
Rina needs too go too jail for killing 97L
Mission 6 (out of Keesler AFB, Biloxi, MS) is on its way to Rina.
I didn't realize they did back to back missions like this. Mission 5 isn't even home yet.
Expected to start going down in 24 hours...

She sure doesn't look as good as earlier. She might have hit her peak.
where do you find the info about where the hurricane hunter planes are at?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Expected to start going down in 24 hours...



For once the models may actually be right. What's worse, I'm actually admitting it. ;)
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Mission 6 (out of Keesler AFB, Biloxi, MS) is on its way to Rina.
I didn't realize they did back to back missions like this. Mission 5 isn't even home yet.



3hr flight to get there.
AllStar17, again a good graphic :)
Quoting timswunderblog:
where do you find the info about where the hurricane hunter planes are at?


Scroll down to my post # 686. I gave the info there.
she's ingesting a good amount of dry air to her nw,a bump in the road??? or the begining of her demise?, im inclined to the later,time will tell,im off thurs/friday andvwould love a ts here in srq
51hrs and going down fast.
Quoting Tazmanian:
how can it go under a EWRC if there no eye?


There is a eye,it was clouded over from shear perhaps,skye noted earlier
The GFS looking rather Wilma'ish...except a weakening TS likely instead of a strengthening Cat 3 behemoth...although the deep blue circle tells a different story...

why would anyone be suprised that she'll drastically weaken once she gets near the gom, been sayn that sheer and dry airwould likely tear her up before any approach to fl, for days now
All the models have been garbage as far as initialization goes.
Quoting robert88:
All the models have been garbage as far as initialization goes.


Don't even get me started on my ostensible model hatred. ;)
Recon UPDATE:

Recon is currently about 440 miles from the center of Rina. The first pass through the center should come before 2 AM EST when we are scheduled to have a new update from the NHC.
Rina why did you go kill 97L for ???
96hrs over the keys
99hrs dead
Quoting stillwaiting:
why would anyone be suprised that she'll drastically weaken once she gets near the gom, been sayn that sheer and dry airwould likely tear her up before any approach to fl, for days now


Youre the most brilliant person here. We thank God for you every moment.
Quoting bballerf50:
What happened to all the great bloggers that used to post here? This blog is going down...


Maybe they started a blog of their own called The Great Bloggers Society
God I hope this doesnt hit Florida at all. As an EMT that is no longer certified by the national registry, I wont be able to perform the interactions that are necessary legally, but I would do my damndest to help anyone I could.
Quoting jonelu:
NHC doesnt seem bullish on SoFlo scenario.
they haven't been bullish from the gitgo
Quoting DJMedik91:
God I hope this doesnt hit Florida at all. As an EMT that is no longer certified by the national registry, I wont be able to perform the interactions that are necessary legally, but I would do my damndest to help anyone I could.


FL better watch out. Or maybe not.
Rina will be nothing but a 40mph storm or TD by the time it gets near FL. Her structure has already started to go downhill and she isn't even near the Yucatan yet. I think the NHC is being conservative for now.
Quoting robert88:
She sure doesn't look as good as earlier. She might have hit her peak.


It's the dry air story
Quoting hurricanejunky:
The GFS looking rather Wilma'ish...except a weakening TS likely instead of a strengthening Cat 3 behemoth...although the deep blue circle tells a different story...



The updated 00Z GFS model from NCEP hooks it south through Cuba and then SW and has it die east of the Yucatan at 150 hours.
Recon will be passing by Cancun in a few minutes.
This is my new favorite toy. :)
I just finished a blog entry on Rita, if anyone wants to read.

I will be sticking around for a bit longer also. I have time tonight. :D
Quoting robert88:


LOL Does the GFS still have Rina as a 1001mb low?
Quoting hurricanejunky:
The GFS looking rather Wilma'ish...except a weakening TS likely instead of a strengthening Cat 3 behemoth...although the deep blue circle tells a different story...



i like 723 and not so much 722
Quoting stillwaiting:
why would anyone be suprised that she'll drastically weaken once she gets near the gom, been sayn that sheer and dry airwould likely tear her up before any approach to fl, for days now


noone would be suprised
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't even get me started on my ostensible model hatred. ;)
LOL
Quoting lickitysplit:


FL better watch out. Or maybe not.


Doesnt matter. I told my fiancee if it comes here, she will go to Maryland with her mother. I will stay here in Florida, and give medical attention to the best of my abilities.
Hopefully this wont happen. Human losses arent easy to see.
Staying up while the GFS finishes its run. After 180 hours a tropical storm forms east of Nicaragua and is still meandering at 264 hours at about the same strength.

Then by 288 hours it has moved inland over Nicaragua and Honduras and dies.

Then it moves out over the Caribbean again at 300 hours becoming a storm again, and dies again at 312 hours. After hitting Nicaragua. Again.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
LOL


The global models generally do well with regards to deciphering the synoptic pattern. Unless I am mistaken, that is their niche. Typically, this leads to respectable track forecasts which can be incorporated into one's personal forecast. No problems there.

Intensity, however, is a different story. Not only do we still not fully understand the forces which govern them, tropical cyclones are not synoptic scale features. Thus, it is not surprising that global models have a poor time resolving them.

I will go ahead and admit now, in case it isn't obvious, that I put zero faith in intensity forecasts from the various models. Even the ones made specifically for that purpose are usually lacking. I can do just as good with my own judgment.
Quoting DJMedik91:
God I hope this doesnt hit Florida at all. As an EMT that is no longer certified by the national registry, I wont be able to perform the interactions that are necessary legally, but I would do my damndest to help anyone I could.


You make it sound as if you are under the impression that if it did hit Florida there would be a major disaster unfolding.

If this does hit Florida it will be virtually a non-event. A weakening system making landfall is always far less potent than a strengthening system, for starters. This goes for hurricanes as well as tropical storms, tropical depressions and so on. Weakening storms are not able to efficiently bring the highest winds in their circulation down to the surface. Rather, the winds tend to be pulled back up into the circulation as it is dying off.

And whatever happens, if this storm hits Florida at all it will almost certainly be a much weakened system that is in a rapid weakening phase. In other words, expect little more than a fair amount of rain and some wind but nothing Florida has not endured without even a scratch, time and time again.

This is no Wilma and it certainly is no Jeanne, nor is it a Charley or even a Frances. Those were all significant hurricanes and they all did significant damage but this will not, almost certainly. One can never say never but this is a time when one could almost say never.

This storm will be more like what tropical storm Mitch did to Florida in 1998. What, you say? You do not remember hearing about that one? Well if not, then you are hardly alone. Mitch is only remembered for what it did when it was a Cat 5 storm wobbling around the Western Caribbean sea near Honduras, where its rains and floods killed thousands of people, unfortunately. But in Florida it was a weakening tropical storm and it did next to nothing. So there you go...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Staying up while the GFS finishes its run. After 180 hours a tropical storm forms east of Nicaragua and is still meandering at 264 hours at about the same strength.

Then by 288 hours it has moved inland over Nicaragua and Honduras and dies.

Then it moves out over the Caribbean again at 300 hours becoming a storm again, and dies again at 312 hours. After hitting Nicaragua. Again.


Whew! Talk about a rollercoaster.
GFS shows a very wet storm over the Great Lakes and inland northeast in the 348-384 hour time frame. Wetter than seems realistic really.
This is so frustrating! :) Thanks for all the info!
Quoting DJMedik91:


Doesnt matter. I told my fiancee if it comes here, she will go to Maryland with her mother. I will stay here in Florida, and give medical attention to the best of my abilities.
Hopefully this wont happen. Human losses arent easy to see.


I Don't think it will be all that bad,even if Rina hits South Florida.It's probably less than 50/50,and she will be weakening. More like typical afternoon summer thunderstorms,just for an extended time frame.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Staying up while the GFS finishes its run. After 180 hours a tropical storm forms east of Nicaragua and is still meandering at 264 hours at about the same strength.

Then by 288 hours it has moved inland over Nicaragua and Honduras and dies.


Go to bed... with this storm.. its out to 36-48hrs till after it leaves the Yucitan or if it makes landfall.. after that we have no clue cause we dont know how strong she will be. If she leaves as a weak Tropical Storm.. she will move more ENE.. if she is stronger she will move NE... she could also move quicker than what the models show right now and if so, might be even further north. Then again..there is the, what if the ECMWF is correct and goes further inland in the Yucitan.. it will be a weak Tropical storm once it emerges further west and become a exposed LLC while the midlevel moisture gets tied into the trough coming down into the northern GOM and Florida. So.. just look out to 36hrs from now.

Also anything past 5 days outside of this system is not worth looking at. It's always changing.
Anyone notice that the 12z GFS which is the fastest and most north GFS solution actually initializes a strong system whereas all the other runs initialized a weaker plus 1000 mb storm
I disagree. I don't put much stock after 5 days either but I think models are interesting to look at even when not accurate.

Quoting scottsvb:


Go to bed... with this storm.. its out to 36-48hrs till after it leaves the Yucitan or if it makes landfall.. after that we have no clue cause we dont know how strong she will be. If she leaves as a weak Tropical Storm.. she will move more ENE.. if she is stronger she will move NE... she could also move quicker than what the models show right now and if so, might be even further north. Then again..there is the, what if the ECMWF is correct and goes further inland in the Yucitan.. it will be a weak Tropical storm once it emerges further west and become a exposed LLC while the midlevel moisture gets tied into the trough coming down into the northern GOM and Florida. So.. just look out to 36hrs from now.

Also anything past 5 days outside of this system is not worth looking at. It's always changing.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I disagree. I don't put much stock after 5 days either but I think models are interesting to look at even when not accurate.



might as well buy a farmers alnamac
The NHC favors a track sort of like this. Haven't seen much mention of Paula as an analogue storm.

Farmer's Almanacs are wastes of time for weather. We agree there.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Farmer's Almanacs are wastes of time for weather. We agree there.


Not according to my dad.
As long as your dad likes them Kori it's all good.

I looked on shortwave animation and Rina's eye has lost definition for now. With that I am going to bed. Have a good night all.
97L has lost convection.. Although actual Intensity models develop a hurricane 72-84 hrs... tracking to W Cuba...


The cones of uncertainty are pretty hilarious. I mean I guess that's how they always are but when they're stacked next to each other you see how pointless they are in days 4 and 5.

"Well, it could be anywhere! Even behind where it was the day before!"



Quoting njdevil:
The cones of uncertainty are pretty hilarious. I mean I guess that's how they always are but when they're stacked next to each other you see how pointless they are in days 4 and 5.

"Well, it could be anywhere! Even behind where it was the day before!"





lol
Thanks FLWaterFront and HurricaneHunterJoe, but it only takes one right? Unfortunately we have a lot of senior citizens here and plenty more that don't pay attention to the tropics. I'd rather be prepared with my medic aid bag, just in case.
We have had plenty of close calls, and I think the general conseus here is that it won't happen. I just know I am ready to react and assist when medically necessary. But I pray it wont happen.
Quoting DJMedik91:
Thanks FLWaterFront and HurricaneHunterJoe, but it only takes one right? Unfortunately we have a lot of senior citizens here and plenty more that don't pay attention to the tropics. I'd rather be prepared with my medic aid bag, just in case.
We have had plenty of close calls, and I think the general conseus here is that it won't happen. I just know I am ready to react and assist when medically necessary. But I pray it wont happen.




we had that one this year it did a lot of damg up and down the E coast do you re call the I storm?
Recon now about 100 miles from the center of Rina. Center penetration expected within the hour.
Hi! Long-time lurker here.

I've been reading the blog since 2008 when I was a sophomore in high school. I grew up on an island in SWFL. Boca Grande for those who have heard of it.

It's pretty late, but if anybody just help me understand one thing_

when rina is traveling through the straits and begins to slow and deteriorate by being sheared apart... which section of the wind field will fall apart first?

Quoting Mediate:
Hi! Long-time lurker here.

I've been reading the blog since 2008 when I was a sophomore in high school. I grew up on an island in SWFL. Boca Grande for those who have heard of it.

It's pretty late, but if anybody just help me understand one thing_

when rina is traveling through the straits and begins to slow and deteriorate by being sheared apart... which section of the wind field will fall apart first?



Hey there! I live in Naples, FL by the way.

In answer to your question it depends on where the shear is coming from, how fast the storm is moving, and how sheltered Rina has made herself right at that moment when it all starts crashing down on her. Currently the winds in the Gulf have generally been out of the east. So the east side or right front quadrant of the storm would probably get stripped first, since Rina would be headed right into the wind. Then it would continue to degenerate from there.
Recon now about 30 miles from last reported center and finally encountering 65 mph + surface winds.
I am surprised on how many Naples,Fl posters on on here! I should start a list. I live in GG Estates!
Quoting alvarig1263:


Hey there! I live in Naples, FL by the way.

In answer to your question it depends on where the shear is coming from, how fast the storm is moving, and how sheltered Rina has made herself right at that moment when it all starts crashing down on her. Currently the winds in the Gulf have generally been out of the east. So the east side or right front quadrant of the storm would probably get stripped first, since Rina would be headed right into the wind. Then it would continue to degenerate from there.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Farmer's Almanacs are wastes of time for weather. We agree there.
But they can be interesting to look at.
Quoting Mediate:
Hi! Long-time lurker here.

I've been reading the blog since 2008 when I was a sophomore in high school. I grew up on an island in SWFL. Boca Grande for those who have heard of it.

It's pretty late, but if anybody just help me understand one thing_

when rina is traveling through the straits and begins to slow and deteriorate by being sheared apart... which section of the wind field will fall apart first?



NOt much wind Shear at all right now, but the Shear will pick up from the WEST and will pick up a great deal when she moves further North .....AS long as she stays south the Shear will be light. Good chance when it moves toward the EAST the MIDLEVEL will decuple from the LOWER Level and you might see 2 different spins on Satellite as the MID will out run the LL spin !
2am track...

Recon passed west and south of previous center and encountered 103.5 mph on the west and 89.7 mph winds to the south.
Recon's first dropsonde into the eye shows it's 10.28 miles due west of the previous location. Pressure 969mb (Surface).
781. JLPR2
Considering we have recon out in Rina this isnt so important, but ASACT made a clear pass and caught Rina nicely.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
As long as your dad likes them Kori it's all good.

I looked on shortwave animation and Rina's eye has lost definition for now. With that I am going to bed. Have a good night all.

HH'ers just reported Rina has a closed Circular eye with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles).
The NHC got one thing wrong, Rina isn't moving west or 270 degrees. Look here and zoom in and you can see Rina is moving just north of due west.
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
Recon's first dropsonde into the eye shows it's 10.28 miles due west of the previous location. Pressure 969mb (Surface).


I still believe a further WEST track is possible when looking at the HIGH. I'm sure im wrong but, there is not much a of gap gonna be there it seems.
Quoting TampaSpin:
2am track...

good morning, looks like we in central florida will get a windy day friday with Some Rain i hope, my grass needs some lol...this isnt the storm to worry about, it will weaken when it gets into the gulf with the shear and cooler waters
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning, looks like we in central florida will get a windy day friday with Some Rain i hope, my grass needs some lol...this isnt the storm to worry about, it will weaken when it gets into the gulf with the shear and cooler waters



Sun must be messing with Satellites......my TV keeps going in and out tonite with reception.....
17.5n84.5w has been re-evaluated&altered for H.Rina's_6amGMT_ATCF
17.4n84.6w, 17.5n85.0w are now the most recent positions
Starting 25Oct_6amGMT and ending 26Oct_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent HurricaneRina's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 26Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline blob at 20.296n87.364w-TUY is the endpoint of the straightline projection connected to its nearest airport for the 26Oct_12amGMT*mapping,
and the coastline dumbbell at 16.414n88.452w-BGK is the same for the 25Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
H.Rina's travel-speed was 4.5mph(7.2k/h) on a heading of 284.7degrees(WNW)
H.Rina was headed toward passage over BacalarChico,Belize ~1day18hours from now

Copy&paste 16.414n88.452w-bgk, 20.296n87.364w-tuy, 17.3n83.5w-17.3n83.8w, 17.3n83.8w-17.3n84.3w, 17.3n84.3w-17.4n84.6w, 17.4n84.6w-17.5n85.0w, 17.4n84.6w-18.187n87.849w, spr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 26Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the previous projections.


Graphic still showing a CAT 3 headed for Cozumel.

From 2 a.m. NHC Discussion:
...RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TURN NE THU EVENING CONTINUING NE TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA SAT AND SUN AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Don't they mean begin to weaken and turn NE FRI Evening?
Oh well, back to my regularly scheduled dream...

5am AST - 967mb, still 110mph. I agree with not upgrading to cat 3, it definitely doesn't look like one. Continuing to slowly look better, though. Becoming very symmetrical, finally.
Last fix AF304 is headed home..

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 08:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 7:57:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°31'N 85°08'W (17.5167N 85.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 201 miles (324 km) to the E (90°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,846m (9,337ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the S (182°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 273° at 88kts (From the W at ~ 101.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the S (183°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 104kts (~ 119.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:04:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the north quadrant at 8:01:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
OUTBOUND SURFACE SFMR WIND 98 KTS IN NORTH QUADRANT
Hurricane Field Program Update – Tuesday, October 25, 2011 07:58 PM EDT
OPERATIONS
NOAA-P-3s

Wednesday, Oct 26, 2011
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for Hurricane Rina. Takeoff will be at 0800 UTC from MacDill AFB/Tampa and landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa.
Comments: This is a TDR mission.

Wednesday, Oct 26, 2011
NOAA-42: Scheduled for a tasked mission for Hurricane Rina. Takeoff will be at 2000 UTC from MacDill AFB/Tampa and landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa.
Comments: This is a TDR mission. The mission scheduled for 20 UTC October 25 is proceeding as planned, takeoff was at 20 UTC.

NOAA-43: No missions scheduled for the next 24 hrs.
G-IV

Wednesday, Oct 26, 2011
NOAA-49: Scheduled for a tasked mission for Hurricane Rina. Takeoff will be at 1730 UTC from MacDill AFB/Tampa and landing in MacDill AFB/Tampa.
Comments: NHC-tasked synoptic surveillance mission for October 26. The HRD-tasked mission scheduled for October 25 is proceeding as planned, takeoff was at 1730 UTC.
UAS

UAS: No missions scheduled for the next 24 hrs.
AFRC DRIFT BUOY

AFRC DRIFT BUOY: No missions scheduled for the next 24 hrs.
Waves ~30'..
Elliptical eye? Never heard of that before. How does that happen?
The added Gonzo data brought the G-models up to FL in the 06Z run..


Some model verification (error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr etc)

GFTI (dark green crossing SFL) 0.9 12.4 19.1 17.5 30.5
GFNI (purple over SFL) 1.1 21.0 18.0 - -
GFDI (orange over SFL) 0.9 12.4 26.7 12.0 18.0
Quoting winter123:
Elliptical eye? Never heard of that before. How does that happen?


Some sort of unevenness..like 1/2 over land, in this case I'd guess the higher shear on the north side of the storm.
She's still sitting on the 20kt shear line. The anticyclone that was over 97L is strengthening big time again..
what happened to rina? she still a 2?
I dont see when Rina is going to make the turn. Its been going west and the forecast cone show it going NNW in the next 9 hours.
A lot of BP oil is about to say Hello to the Florida land mass
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what happened to rina? she still a 2?

Still a 2. Becoming symetrical. Eye is still obscured.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A lot of BP oil is about to say Hello to the Florida land mass
watch out they may arrest you way things are nowadays they rip your ira off no one goes to jail now if we protest we are arrested which storm?
801. MahFL
Just starting to get the buzz saw look on the right hand side.

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I dont see when Rina is going to make the turn. Its been going west and the forecast cone show it going NNW in the next 9 hours.

This is very nerve-racking for us in Belize. Do you see a WNW turn for the next advisory?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A lot of BP oil is about to say Hello to the Florida land mass


What makes you think that?
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON HURRICANE RINA.
THE MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK THROUGH THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS LARGE...WHICH CONTINUES TO CREATE A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FORECAST
HAS RINA BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE MIDWEST...CONTINUES EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS UPPER
PATTERN SHIFTS AND RINA BEGINS TO PULL NORTH...THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...RINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS EAST NORTH OR NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HOW QUICKLY RINA WEAKENS WILL BECOME THE MAIN
QUESTION THROUGH THIS CRITICAL TIME AND WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN
THE FINAL TRACK. WHEREAS IF RINA QUICKLY WEAKENS...THE STEERING
LAYER COULD SHIFT TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN BACK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN. THE MAIN
OUTLIER IS NOW THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY TRACK
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

Quoting cajunkid:


What makes you think that?


Good morning gang!

I was wondering the same thing. Seems to me that the wind field would be pushing any oil towards Mexico...
Quoting Watching4Belize:

This is very nerve-racking for us in Belize. Do you see a WNW turn for the next advisory?

I always wonder about that - several storms seemed headed straight for Florida this season and made the turn North and ended up not hitting anything until Nova Scotia. Still scary and if it were me, I'd be prepared anyway, just in case of a delayed turn or a wobble. Especially if I lived right near the water.
Post 804: The WNW turn is likely but Rina might pull a Richard like last year and go into BElize instead of turning toward the channel and it seems very likely for that to happen imo.
Rina doesn't look as good as it did last afternoon, but looks better than it did last night. A Category 3 hurricane is still possible out of the system.


BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Post 804: The WNW turn is likely but Rina might pull a Richard like last year and go into BElize instead of turning toward the channel and it seems very likely for that to happen imo.

Lets not try to scare people...Rina is moving just north of due west according to recon, and should begin to turn within the next few days. With that trough, and Rina's strength, its pretty much a done deal that Rina will not move directly into the Yucatan Peninsula, like Richard.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Why don't you put a picture of you on there too. You use it
every time you drive a car or use something plastic.
Blame yourself as much as you blame them. They
would not be out there if you didnt use it.
Hi Rina looks static and weak, if it was stronger would remind me of Mitch (due to stationary and dates). Could some one Post H and L for the region please?
Rina should begin to turn towards the NW in the next 12-24 Hours. The Mid-Level Ridge located over the northern Bahamas, is currently sliding towards the southeast. Expect Rina to slow down a bit later today... JMO
Quoting BenBIogger:
Rina should begin to turn towards the NW in the next 12-24. The Mid-Level located over the northern Bahamas, is currently sliding towards the southeast. Expect Rina to slow down a bit later today...

Slow down? Its moving 3 mph!

lol.
Unless 97L starts to build plenty of convection and get organized,it will be deactivated very soon.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

818. 7544
morning all looks like rina has stalled scince last night when will the next plane be going to check her out thanks
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Slow down? Its moving 3 mph!

lol.


In a 30 mph zone?! give her a ticket!


Seriously I was trying to say that its movement could become stationary once the Mid-Level Ridge moves further away.

Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like rina has stalled scince last night when will the next plane be going to check her out thanks

2PM EDT (Today), 8PM EDT (Today), 2AM EDT (Tomorrow), 8AM EDT (Tomorrow).
821. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2PM EDT (Today), 8PM EDT (Today), 2AM EDT (Tomorrow), 8AM EDT (Tomorrow).


thank you pressure now at 9.67 getting stronger at this hour could become a cat 3 today
Quoting cajunkid:


What makes you think that?

Oil From the BP Spill Found at Bottom of Gulf
ABC

Hurricanes could snap offshore oil pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico and other hurricane-prone areas, since the storms whip up strong underwater currents, a new study suggests.

The storms' powerful winds can raise waves 20 meters (66 feet) or more above the ocean surface. But their effects underwater are little known, although signs of seafloor damage have showed up after some hurricanes.
Based on unique measurements taken directly under a powerful hurricane, the new study's calculations are the first to show that hurricanes propel underwater currents with enough oomph to dig up the seabed

The research team found that strong currents along the sea floor pushed and pulled on the seabed, scouring its surface. "Usually you only see this in very shallow water, where waves break on the beach, stirring up sand," says David Wang, co-author of the study. "In hurricanes, the much bigger waves can stir up the seafloor all the way down to 90 meters [300 feet]."

According to these estimates, hurricanes considerably weaker than Ivan, which was category-4, could still tear up the seafloor, causing significant damage as deep as 90 meters.
The researchers were surprised by how long the destructive currents persisted after Hurricane Ivan passed by. "The stress on the sea floor lasted nearly a week,

ScienceDaily
Visible:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Visible:



97L moisture should give Rina a boost later today.
Quoting BenBIogger:


97L moisture should give Rina a boost later today.

Yeah, probably.

Well, I'm off to school...Be back this afternoon.

827. 7544
looks like this could be a tricky one rina is only 1 mph away from being a cat 3 strom as she gets in the gom wind shear will be strong but the key player is 97l could rina feed off of 97l and gain back whatever shear rips apart and refuel her now if there was no 97l then we can def. say yes she will be torn apart but with 97l offer her that xtra boost could she be alittle stronger if even she stays on the nhc path or perhaps a little north of cuba and stay in the warm waters and not touch land if she does head to fla tia
It should merge with the front and be gone as a TC by Sunday. The 06Z GFS agrees with the scenario I am seeing. Cold front drives through Florida by Saturday evening. Northerly winds 20-30 kts across the Gulf and Florida feed quite a bit of cool, dry air into Rina.

830. eddye
cat 1 right into south florida
831. 7544
Quoting eddye:
cat 1 right into south florida


yeap u might be right a hand full of models now show it heading right to so fla we should know more by today
GFDL thinks it's gonna be a Cat. 4?

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Oil From the BP Spill Found at Bottom of Gulf
ABC

Hurricanes could snap offshore oil pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico and other hurricane-prone areas, since the storms whip up strong underwater currents, a new study suggests.

The storms' powerful winds can raise waves 20 meters (66 feet) or more above the ocean surface. But their effects underwater are little known, although signs of seafloor damage have showed up after some hurricanes.
Based on unique measurements taken directly under a powerful hurricane, the new study's calculations are the first to show that hurricanes propel underwater currents with enough oomph to dig up the seabed

The research team found that strong currents along the sea floor pushed and pulled on the seabed, scouring its surface. "Usually you only see this in very shallow water, where waves break on the beach, stirring up sand," says David Wang, co-author of the study. "In hurricanes, the much bigger waves can stir up the seafloor all the way down to 90 meters [300 feet]."

According to these estimates, hurricanes considerably weaker than Ivan, which was category-4, could still tear up the seafloor, causing significant damage as deep as 90 meters.
The researchers were surprised by how long the destructive currents persisted after Hurricane Ivan passed by. "The stress on the sea floor lasted nearly a week,

ScienceDaily


Very interesting, thank you for posting it. I fail to see how this would bring a lot of oil to Florida insofar as the wind field would not support a subsurface current "towards" Florida. As the oil is on the bottom, even if riled up into shallower stratum, would it not return to the bottom after the event?

Now, I know first hand how powerful a raging sea can be far from the surface, so none of this article surprises me.

I am a Submariner. I recall being in the north Atlantic clearing baffles in preparation to coming to periscope depth (62feet)and at 200 feet, the boat began rolling 5 degrees or so, at 150, it had increased to 10 plus. At 120 feet, were were rocking 20-25 degrees. Sonar was worthless, the crashing of the sea surface above us overwhelmed any other noise source. We went back deep and steamed another day and a half into good weather and went at it again.
BS take it to email please.
Rina is forecast to continue to strengthen today, unfortunately, for the folks along the Yucatan Peninsula, before she finally gets far enough west to encounter landand north to get weakened by the dry air and shear.
835. MahFL
Nice new convection on the center.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Very interesting, thank you for posting it. I fail to see how this would bring a lot of oil to Florida insofar as the wind field would not support a subsurface current "towards" Florida. As the oil is on the bottom, even if riled up into shallower stratum, would it not return to the bottom after the event?

Some of it ends up on beach property and shallower waters. Very hard to say how much this will be. Checking on the beaches afterwards and we know better. It will be tuff for cleaning areas like the everglades and ofc we must wait and see, depending where the storm flood hits.
837. eddye
watch it clip mexico and comes towards florida
12z Best Track mantains at 95kts.

AL, 18, 2011102612, , BEST, 0, 177N, 853W, 95, 967, HU
Quoting indianrivguy:


Very interesting, thank you for posting it. I fail to see how this would bring a lot of oil to Florida insofar as the wind field would not support a subsurface current "towards" Florida. As the oil is on the bottom, even if riled up into shallower stratum, would it not return to the bottom after the event?

Now, I know first hand how powerful a raging sea can be far from the surface, so none of this article surprises me.

I am a Submariner. I recall being in the north Atlantic clearing baffles in preparation to coming to periscope depth (62feet)and at 200 feet, the boat began rolling 5 degrees or so, at 150, it had increased to 10 plus. At 120 feet, were were rocking 20-25 degrees. Sonar was worthless, the crashing of the sea surface above us overwhelmed any other noise source. We went back deep and steamed another day and a half into good weather and went at it again.
Cool post...I always wondered what would happen to a sub surfacing in high seas..I worked on a ocean going tug in the early and mid 1980,s. Saw some 25 footers in the Alantic and 30 footers on Lake Superior. Almost lost the ship, cargo and crew on Superior in 1985. It was scary stuff
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Oil From the BP Spill Found at Bottom of Gulf
ABC

Hurricanes could snap offshore oil pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico and other hurricane-prone areas, since the storms whip up strong underwater currents, a new study suggests.

The storms' powerful winds can raise waves 20 meters (66 feet) or more above the ocean surface. But their effects underwater are little known, although signs of seafloor damage have showed up after some hurricanes.
Based on unique measurements taken directly under a powerful hurricane, the new study's calculations are the first to show that hurricanes propel underwater currents with enough oomph to dig up the seabed

The research team found that strong currents along the sea floor pushed and pulled on the seabed, scouring its surface. "Usually you only see this in very shallow water, where waves break on the beach, stirring up sand," says David Wang, co-author of the study. "In hurricanes, the much bigger waves can stir up the seafloor all the way down to 90 meters [300 feet]."

According to these estimates, hurricanes considerably weaker than Ivan, which was category-4, could still tear up the seafloor, causing significant damage as deep as 90 meters.
The researchers were surprised by how long the destructive currents persisted after Hurricane Ivan passed by. "The stress on the sea floor lasted nearly a week,

ScienceDaily


Lots of hurricanes in the Gulf over lots of years with oil rigs and pipelines, and the ONLY bad spills/"accidents" have been man made. Please don't post stuff just to incite the readers. Thank you.
Good Morning, looks like Rina has finally made the turn NW just a little to the right of the forecast points.
842. MahFL
Re the seabed oil quote, aren't most of the wells much deeper than 300 feet ?
Quoting BenBIogger:


In a 30 mph zone?! give her a ticket!


Seriously I was trying to say that its movement could become stationary once the Mid-Level Ridge moves further away.



That would be great...for FLa of course. Any more slowing, or if Rina becomes stationary for 6 - 12 hours it would all but eliminate any chance of this storm getting near Florida. Thats why the models differ. Some are faster with the northward motion.
Well it finally happened as Levi predicted...Pressures rose over the conus and fell
in the Carib. Lucky for us thta deep troughs are
passing thru Gomex with regularity now...pick em up and carry em away!
Quoting MahFL:
Re the seabed oil quote, aren't most of the wells much deeper than 300 feet ?


BP Oil Still Ashore One Year After End of Gulf Spill

Crude oil continues to wash ashore along the Gulf of Mexico coast a year after BP Plc (BP/) stopped the flow from its damaged Macondo well, which caused the worst U.S. offshore spill, government officials said.
About 491 miles (790 kilometers) of coastline in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida were contaminated by BP oil as of July 9, the last available tally from field inspections, Tim Zink, a spokesman for the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, said in an e-mailed message. A total of 1,074 miles has been oiled since the spill began, he said.
“The bulk of the work is picking up tar balls on the beaches,” U.S. Coast Guard Captain Julia Hein, the federal on- scene coordinator of the cleanup, said in an interview today bloomberg
846. eddye
barotropic that wouldnt be good for fl because if it becomes stainoary and strengthen and it can hit florida as a cat 2 because it will give it more time and wait until the cold front comes and then hit fl
Quoting BullShoalsAR:

Ok. Don't deflect question and email Neapolitan to ask him what this is about.

I asked you a question. Have you been receiving any emails from Neapolitan lately? Simple answer: Yes or No.
other users includng myself got them to.Could have been auto generated or spam.it’s been reported to admin tho.please stay on topic.We may have a potential hurricane or TS affecting Florida.It will already affect Mexico and thoughts go out to them.
Why can't the models agree? I need to make my weekend plans!!

Lol! just kidding, I realize how silly we are sometimes with our expectations of forecasting and weather prediction, we all know that Mother Nature while predictable can be also be totally unpredictable.

watching and waiting, have a good day everyone, hopes Rina has a bad day and dry air disrupts her.
her core is collapsing. i think she has peaked and is going to weaken. its good for the yucatan but sad how the vertical instability this year was just horrible and ruined a whole season
Quoting eddye:
barotropic that wouldnt be good for fl because if it becomes stainoary and strengthen and it can hit florida as a cat 2 because it will give it more time and wait until the cold front comes and then hit fl


THere aint a model that exists or a TPC forecaster that would bet a dollar that Rina will hit Florida as a cat 2 hurricane......or likely even a cat 1. Its still very questionable if she will survive at the NE tip of the yuc.
851. eddye
wunderweatherman=wrong not collapsing growing more thunderstorms
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
her core is collapsing. i think she has peaked and is going to weaken. its good for the yucatan but sad how the vertical instability this year was just horrible and ruined a whole season


"ruined the whole season"?? Really?? I have certainly enjoyed this season with all the weird, unpredictable storms. Nothing has been "set in stone"..invests poof up, then die, then come back and become storms...sometimes big storms. Season started early in April and might just go to December! Who knows? I am just grateful that at Cat 5 did not hit somewhere like New Orleans and cause massive death, doom and destruction. Sadly, we had destructive storms and lives lost this season both in US and other countries. Not a "ruined season" in my opinion and looking forward to watching 2012.
Good morning.. from South Fla.. not sure if this update from the South Fla Water Mngt District was posted.. wanted to share.. G'day

DISCUSSION:

At 8am, HURRICANE RINA was located near 17.6N 85.3W, or about 230 miles south-southeast of the Cozumel, Mexico, moving west near 4 mph with sustained winds up to 110 mph. Rina is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane and then move along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Thursday before turning more northeastward ahead of an approaching cold front from the north. As Rina encounters stronger winds and then interacts with the frontal boundary, it is forecast to weaken beginning Friday. The strength and timing of the front remain uncertain and therefore the strength and track of Rina remain uncertain. A slower, weaker front could create a potential for Rina to affect the southern portion of the District this weekend.

A trough is generating disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. Development is not very likely as the system moves generally westward. This system is not a threat to the District.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


"ruined the whole season"?? Really?? I have certainly enjoyed this season with all the weird, unpredictable storms. Nothing has been "set in stone"..invests poof up, then die, then come back and become storms...sometimes big storms. Season started early in April and might just go to December! Who knows? I am just grateful that at Cat 5 did not hit somewhere like New Orleans and cause massive death, doom and destruction. Sadly, we had destructive storms and lives lost this season both in US and other countries. Not a "ruined season" in my opinion and looking forward to watching 2012.
ruined as in we had not many intense hurricane like 2010 which had igor danielle earl, julia. those are the ones im talking about :P
Woke up to a very nice sight this morning, 20-30 ibis in my backyard...
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
ruined as in we had not many intense hurricane like 2010 which had igor danielle earl, julia. those are the ones im talking about :P

this time we have Irene Ophelia Katia and of course Rina
they are 3 majors there if Rina become a major will be 4 one less than 2010
i was wrong i thought it would intensify more. sometimes these systems think the nw carib is a bathtub around and around.
858. eddye
remember a weakerfront can make rina stronger for florida
Quoting BenBIogger:
Woke up to a very nice sight this morning, 20-30 ibis in my backyard...

Excellent! Wish you had a picture.
Add Rina to this year list of nothing happened.Reasons for this year weird season...who knows?
Quoting TropicTraveler:

Excellent! Wish you had a picture.


I wish I had a camera. Would have made a very nice postcard...
Quoting allancalderini:

this time we have Irene Ophelia Katia and of course Rina
they are 3 majors there if Rina become a major will be 4 one less than 2010
im talking about tropical storm converting to hurricanes. we had 17 only 6 became hurricane usually at least 8 do

805. cajunkid11:28 AM GMT on October 26, 2011

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
A lot of BP oil is about to say Hello to the Florida land mass


What makes you think that?


Because 2/3rds of the oil is still at the bottom of the floor...working this stuff since May2010...every front or disturbance has been pushing it right into Gulf Shores and Orange Beach...don't be suprised if Florida does get some...the gulf current is still moving so it is possible...us up here in Bama...we expect to see alot of it...remember people the oil is still there...didn't get eaten up by micro stuff either...whatever our great media hasn't been telling the public...all about the $$$
Quoting BenBIogger:
Rina should begin to turn towards the NW in the next 12-24 Hours. The Mid-Level Ridge located over the northern Bahamas, is currently sliding towards the southeast. Expect Rina to slow down a bit later today... JMO


Anyone know where there's a graphic that would show where this ridge is? Being located on the northern most Caye in Belize, the timing of this right turn for Rina's gonna make a big difference here.
Quoting BZEJeff:


Anyone know where there's a graphic that would show where this ridge is? Being located on the northern most Caye in Belize, the timing of this right turn for Rina's gonna make a big difference here.


Link
Quoting BZEJeff:


Anyone know where there's a graphic that would show where this ridge is? Being located on the northern most Caye in Belize, the timing of this right turn for Rina's gonna make a big difference here.

Turn is happening now. Rina is also loosing her eye.
867. eddye
lol she not losing her eye
Quoting eddye:
lol she not losing her eye


She lost quite a bit of her eye wall.
869. eddye
why because she going nearland
870. eddye
im looking at satelite she still looks good
Rina may have peaked. IMO
Quoting eddye:
why because she going nearland

upwelling the cooler water??
Quoting eddye:
im looking at satelite she still looks good


Look at the MIMIC.
This is only tangentially related to the tropics, but it is weather, and I think some will find it interesting.

I ran across a couple of videos yesterday showing a phenomenon known as "crown flash". I've witnessed it a few times in the pileus cap atop immature and quickly-growing thunderstorms, but always assumed it to be caused by the shock waves from high-altitude lightning flashes. But it's apparently a little more complex than that: it's caused by the refraction of sunlight through ice crystals that slowly align themselves as an electrical charge builds up in the parent cumulonimbus, then quickly re-align as lightning flashes, releasing the charge. The whole things is is explained pretty well here (also here (in Portugese, so you'll need to translate it). (Also here at the Big Astronomy blog)

Here are two videos, the first from Singapore, and the second (lower-quality one) from Maryland:



a weakend tc after a yucatan landfall,being pushed to the east,the thing is this front imo is not going to be a s strong as forecast imo and may even stall over sfl,i think we're in for a suprise or 2 ,what a weaker front may do is what happend with wilma actually drew her into swfl,not that it'll happen just find it interesting that my local forecasts only drops our temps maybe 5*!!!
876. eddye
i just called the national hurricane center and they told me they think she will clip mexico and come towards the keys and south fl as a catgory 1
Quoting niederwaldboy:

upwelling the cooler water??


Doubt it. The likely cause was some dry air which was entrained from the SW side of Rina. Now if 97L moisture is able to reach Rina by tonight, expect for some deeper convection to develop over Rina.
Quoting BenBIogger:
Woke up to a very nice sight this morning, 20-30 ibis in my backyard...


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.
Quoting eddye:
i just called the national hurricane center and they told me they think she will clip mexico and come towards the keys and south fl as a catgory 1


You called the NHC.....and they took the time to tell you that? lol
lol... it seems the more people wishcast,less storms come my way. so, by all means continue. YES RINA WILL MAINTAIN A CAT 2 IN 40-50 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND HIT FLA!
881. eddye
yes starbuck
Troll Alert: JFVlivesOn and starbuck02
Quoting eddye:
i just called the national hurricane center and they told me they think she will clip mexico and come towards the keys and south fl as a catgory 1


Could you get me the ###.. I have a few questions for them as well..lol
Quoting seflagamma:


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.
I second that.. 80 new pieces of sod..lol
Quoting seflagamma:


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.


Good Morning!

Could indeed be grub worms. Thankfully I am well prepared, I have a bag of Scott Grub Control.
Anyone read the latest from Crown Royal this morning? They like the idea of the GFDL the most. It is funny that the GFDL actually has it restrengthening again just before it somes to SWFL because of the heat content in that area.
Quoting seflagamma:


rofl, don't want to alarm you but my husband goes crazy
when he sees a lot of Ibis in our grass pecking away....

that usually means your lawn is infested with cinch bugs or grub worms!

You may want to check that out!

Hi everyone, good morning to you.


Hi Gamma,
He should be grateful...do you have any idea what it would cost to have 20 ibis flown in to take care of a cinch bug/grub worm problem?!
Quoting usa777:


Could you get me the ###.. I have a few questions for them as well..lol


305-229-4404

lol
Quoting BenBIogger:


Good Morning!

Could indeed be grub worms. Thankfully I am well prepared, I have a bag of Scott Grub Control.


Do you know what happens to ibis if/when they ingest that stuff? Just asking.
NOGAPS has stuck to a Mexico landfall and dissipation over Mexico for the past 3-4 days. Now all of a sudden their saying it's gonna hit FL.
Question for you tropical experts out there. What happens when 2 tropical storms intersect each other? Will 97L get sucked into Rina?
Quoting Chicklit:


Do you know what happens to ibis if/when they ingest that stuff? Just asking.


No. Though I do know where the white stains on top my neighbors roof is coming from now...
I meant Crown Weather, not Crown Royal, lol. Too early for that yet.
Amarillo, TX at 44 degrees VS
Rockport, TX at 84 degrees
Seems the NHC track is RIGHT of the MODEL consensus.



Quoting BenBIogger:


Good Morning!

Could indeed be grub worms. Thankfully I am well prepared, I have a bag of Scott Grub Control.

Or you could consider the ibis as a "green" form of bug control.....
Quoting geoexplore99:
Question for you tropical experts out there. What happens when 2 tropical storms intersect each other? Will 97L get sucked into Rina?


Most likely she will use the moisture from 97L to build more of a shield on here eastern and southeastern side for protection from the dry air. Your north end will still be exposed though.
For you demented types who just love winter weather, "enjoy" these lovely photos showing the first real blast of the year. The top one shows downtown Breckenridge, Colorado:

Breckenridge

And this is a Wyoming DOT webcam from near Laramie, Wyoming:

Wyoming

No, thanks. SWFL works just fine for me, Rina or not...
Quoting geoexplore99:
Question for you tropical experts out there. What happens when 2 tropical storms intersect each other? Will 97L get sucked into Rina?


I'm not a tropical expert nor a Met.

Usually the Dominate feature tends to absorbs the weaker system. Wilma and Alpha (2005) are a very good example.
Amarillo, TX forecast

Tonight
Rain showers early in the evening...mixing with and turning over to light snow after midnight. Breezy. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.
Its gonna die over the Yucatan.......i still believe that will occur.......there is hardly any front at all coming.....heck we in Tampa have absolutely NO Temp change at all coming over the next several days.

Even the HWRF model now kills it over the Yucatan.
New Blog guys.
903. 7544
yeap gfdl a bit stronger now right over so fla
the turn to the NW has begun
Quoting alvarig1263:


Most likely she will use the moisture from 97L to build more of a shield on here eastern and southeastern side for protection from the dry air. Your north end will still be exposed though.


Thanks...Sorry for my weather ignorance...have 2 tropical storms or hurricanes ever merged, and is that even physically possible?
I'd rather have the ibis.
hey does anyone think that rena is right now starting to pull WNW-NW I an now starting to see the now collapsing eyewall and now I beleve that Rina has Peaked
Recon now 200 miles out from Rina's center.
NEW BLOG!!
Rina looks more like a Cat 1 Hurricane on Rainbow.