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Hurricane Rina a Category 2, headed towards the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on October 25, 2011

Hurricane Rina is now a Category 2 storm, headed slowly west-northwest at 3 mph towards Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The most recent hurricane hunter mission was at 4:32 am EDT this morning, and the next aircraft is not due into the storm until this afternoon, so we'll have to rely on satellite estimates of the storm's strength until then. Recent satellite intensity estimates suggest Rina has leveled off in intensity, with no change in strength since the last hurricane hunter mission. A murky, cloud-filled eye is visible on visible satellite loops right now. Rina also has an impressive upper-level outflow channel to the north, and very intense thunderstorms with cold clouds tops that extend up to the stratosphere. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the south, and these winds are injecting dry air into Rina's south side, inhibiting heavy thunderstorm development there. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Rina has brought sporadic heavy rain squalls to the Cayman Islands; George Town on Grand Cayman has received 4.76" of rain over the past three days from Rina, as of 9 am EDT this morning.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Rina taken at 12:15 pm EDT October 24, 2011. Two hours after this image was taken Rina had intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Rina
The hurricane hunters found Rina's eyewall had a gap in it during their 4:32 am EDT eye penetration this morning, probably caused by the moderate wind shear the storm has experienced over the past day. It is unlikely that Rina will be able to "bomb" and undergo rapid intensification unless it can close off this gap in the eyewall. Wind shear is not expected to increase until Wednesday night, so Rina still has a day and a half to continue its intensification process. Given the storm's inability to close off its eyewall so far, I expect that a Category 3 storm is the strongest that we will see. On Wednesday night, Rina will encounter a dry airmass with high wind shear that lies over the extreme northwestern Caribbean. These conditions should weaken the hurricane, but Rina could still be a major hurricane if it makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Rina late this week, which should turn Rina more to the northwest by Thursday and northeast on Friday. However, it is uncertain if Rina will be strong enough to fully "feel" the steering influence of this through and be swept to the east-northeast into Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys. If Rina makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula and weakens significantly, the storm will likely be too weak to get caught up by the trough and will remain trapped in the Western Caribbean. This is the solution of the latest runs of the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models. However, if Rina remains strong through Friday, it is more likely to get caught up by the trough and drawn into the Florida Keys as a weakening tropical storm on Friday or Saturday. This is the solution of the latest 2 am EDT runs of the GFDL and GFS models. There is high degree of uncertainty which set of model runs will be correct.

Comparing Rina to Hurricane Wilma of 2005
Rina's intensification into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean during the last half of October brings to mind Hurricane Wilma, which also did this in 2005. Wilma went on to become a Category 5 monster, the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time. I don't think Rina will be another Wilma, even though the ocean temperatures and total heat content are similar to what Wilma experienced (Figure 3). Wilma had nearly ideal upper-level atmospheric conditions with an anticyclone aloft and light wind shear, under 5 knots. Rina is experiencing 15 - 20 knots of wind shear and is also a smaller storm, and is thus more vulnerable to the effects of wind shear and dry air.


Figure 2. Hurricane Wilma at 8:22 a.m. CDT Oct. 19, 2005 as photographed by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and winds of 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and had an eye just 2.3 miles in diameter, the smallest on record.


Figure 3. The total heat content of the ocean available to fuel hurricane intensification as measured by the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP). Top: TCHP for October 23, 2011, one day before Hurricane Rina of 2011 formed. Bottom: TCHP for October 18, 2005, the day Hurricane Wilma formed. TCHP values in excess of 80 kJ per centimeter squared (yellow colors) are often associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Both hurricane had similar very high levels of TCHP to help fuel intensification. Image credit: NOAA/AOML


Figure 4. Wind shear in knots for 09 UTC October 25, 2011, during Hurricane Rina of 2011 (top) and at 21 UTC October 17, 2005, the day before Wilma became a hurricane. A large area of wind shear less than 5 knots lay over Wilma as it was forming, while Rina was under wind shear of 20 knots this morning. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

97L north of the ABC islands
A broad region of low pressure between the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao and the Dominican Republic (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased a little since yesterday, and the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. The storm is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air is the main impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low through Thursday, and 97L will encounter a moister atmosphere as it progresses westward into the Central Caribbean. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua on Thursday, the storm could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Heavy rains from 97L should reach Jamaica on Thursday, the Cayman Islands by early Friday morning, and south-central Cuba by Friday night.

Geomagentic storm triggers brilliant aurora displays
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that blasted away a portion of the sun's atmosphere earlier this week hit the Earth's magnetic field at 2 pm EDT yesterday. The resulting show of Northern Lights was observed as far south as Arkansas last night. Here in Michigan, I got a call from a neighbor's 12-year old, who was concerned that the sky was all red. Alas, the display was gone by the time I had finished explaining in far too much technical detail what was behind the event!

I'll have a new post on Rina this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Northern Lights!!! 2011_10_24
Northern Lights!!! 2011_10_24
In SW MO! Rare, Rare sight!
Mid Michigan Aurora 1
Mid Michigan Aurora 1
Not great, but better than nothing!! Notice the

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting alvarig1263:


They didn't fly through the SE eye wall this time like they did on the initial pass. The first time they flew from NW to SE and found the strongest winds in the SE quadrant but since they flew from NE to SW this time those stronger winds we're not picked up. The next pass should be from SE to NW so the recon should pick up those stronger winds again.


So just a thought.

Timing of Irenes landfall and the haphazard destruction along the coast would be a result of such discrepancies/VARIANCES within a storm,would it not?

ie
You can drive through a 30 car pile up unscathed but the surrounding destruction is horrifying.

Timing and swirl path.
Quoting sunlinepr:

97L has such a perfect anticyclone and yet nothing is developing. Why? If anything does develop, it'll be the eastern side of this elongated system, IMO.
503. wpb
wind speed forecast has a decaying ts with winds below 45 mph in 106 hours.
agree?

RINA 18Z DYNAMIC MODEL FORECAST
img src="Photobucket">
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
thats the SE Eyewall. pressure is still around 970mb and cat 3;s usually have 966mb or less but we will see. im thinking 110 at the 5pm


What do you mean by "that's the SE eye wall"? It is part of Rina and the max winds gotta come from some part of the storm. It is clear that 105 MPH winds are being found around the center. So it definitely isn't weakening. I guess we'll just wait till the next pass through the SE quadrant and see if those winds are found again. That should give the NHC to at least make it a Cat. 3. Whether with 115 MPH winds or 120 MPH winds.
Rina has grown in size too, I expect Hurricane force winds to be 35-40 miles from the center and TS winds 140-150 miles out from center.
Usually when a hurricane slows it forward speed it may be the start of a different direction.
Too bad the Dolphins are not at home this weekend at least maybe then they could blame the weather.
Quoting wpb:
wind speed forecast has a decaying ts with winds below 45 mph in 106 hours.
agree?


All depends on Rina's speed and interaction with land.
This storm might never make it to Florida, so be prepared for that, gonna be a lot of sad folks on here
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
I hate to be a NUDGE here but is this scenario possible?


Quoting spathy:


97L is very odd.
Its almost as if the UL Anticyclone has dug down towards the surface and is chopping off any cyclonic spin.
Quoting RitaEvac:
This storm might never make it to Florida, so be prepared for that, gonna be a lot of sad folks on here


Lol
Let's see.

Rina intensified rapidly yesterday, more slowly last night and this morning and is pausing now.

Most models seem to take her to south Florida or the Florida straits as a weakening storm.

Conditions remain favorable for further strengthening for a while but Rina is small and intensity fluctuations could be rapid and hard to predict.

93 hour 12Z GFS model forecast is clickable and expandable.

RINA RAMSDIS LOOP

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed


I'd go with:

C. 115 MPH.

But I would like to see what recon finds again in the center before 5PM and that will either change or solidify my answer.
WOW FISH STORM RITA!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed


I will go with A
Powerhouse front blasting down the plains late this week gonna cause Rina to back in reverse and say the hell with Florida and either just die and commit suicide from shear or high tail it across Cuba and run to Atlantic
Quoting RitaEvac:
Powerhouse front blasting down the plains late this week gonna cause Rina to back in reverse and say the hell with Florida and either just die and commit suicide from shear or high tail it across Cuba and run to Atlantic


I guess we'll see....
Usaf earlier founds winds at 140 in the south east and east eyewall i would say five P.M. advisory winds at 115 to 120 and pressure 968 to 969.
523. wpb
gulfstream jet about %50 percent complete
with there recon. over the nw carb now
My gut feeling is that Rina may have started more of the NW turn that is in the forecast
525. Gorty
I hope 97L gets to a TS in Oct so we can have 3 named storms for the month oh wait... see what I did there?
nice new burst of convection

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery


Levi posted an update....Link
530. wpb
noaa p-3 mission on the way out of tampa
Hot tower right on the eyewall

Quoting alvarig1263:


I guess we'll see....


Yeah, I would never bet against Rina. Rina has been proving the "experts" including THC wrong from the very beginning.

With recon showing a pressure of 972 mb at their 19:23Z vortex message unless there is another penetration very soon that shows a pressure drop I don't seem the NHC increasing the winds beyond 90 knots. They are probably writing up their public advisory and discussion now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed


B
Recon Plane Update:

Main recon plane on it's way back in. About 15 minutes from the center.

"Kermit" recon plane just took off from Tampa, and is heading to Rina now about 720 miles from the center.

GI-V (Gonzo) plane is making it's way around the east side of Rina collecting data for the computer models.
Hey freakshows, it is RINA, not RITA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
538. Gorty
Does Rina threaten the same areas as 2005's Wilma?
Quoting thunderbug91:


B
D.
97L is going to get its self in a better position of development late tonight and into the morning

now with Rina if she truly started her Northery movement I say it will start it NE-ENE movement early as well and if that is th case it would be making that NE-ENE movement South of Cuba
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
97L is going to get its self in a better position of development late tonight and into the morning

now with Rina if she truly started her Northery movement I say it will start it NE-ENE movement early as well and if that is th case it would be making that NE-ENE movement South of Cuba

97L has been put in deactivation mode...At least for now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
B because there is not enough evidence at the moment to call her a 3. im thinking she makes landfall as a 65mph ts anywhere to a 80mph cat 1. if she moves faster in the gulf then she might maintain some of her intensity :P
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
97L is going to get its self in a better position of development late tonight and into the morning

now with Rina if she truly started her Northery movement I say it will start it NE-ENE movement early as well and if that is th case it would be making that NE-ENE movement South of Cuba


really your praying for rina to turn right into your little island cmon man
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
97L is going to get its self in a better position of development late tonight and into the morning

now with Rina if she truly started her Northery movement I say it will start it NE-ENE movement early as well and if that is th case it would be making that NE-ENE movement South of Cuba


Rina is wobbling, but overall she's following the current NHC forecasted path moving WNW.
...Heading to the center one last time...
Quoting ChrisDcat5Storm:


really your praying for rina to turn right into your little island cmon man


Lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

B. Only one reading was over 110 MPH, but it was a contaminated reading :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

97L has been put in deactivation mode...At least for now.


That's interesting. I saw last night after getting in from neighbors that a special tropical weather outlook had been issued and the probability raised to 40%

I've seen special advisories and even special tropical disturbance statements. But I don't remember a special tropical weather outlook being issued before.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Guesses of Hurricane Rina's intensity at 5PM?

A. 105 mph
B. 110 mph
C. 115 mph
D. 120 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed

C. 115
Quoting Bordonaro:

B. Only one reading was over 110 MPH, but it was a contaminated reading :)

There were several.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were several.

We will find out within 29 mins. Either a 110 or 115 MPH Rina at 5 PM.
Hi everyone,

My grandson who is 8 yrs old in 3rd grade, has to come to WU for school homework tonight...

only got a message from my daughter in law so not sure what he will be doing here...but just in case..

Be good!!!! LOL


Probably just going to look at some of the graphics and the hurricane, but just in case he comes by this blog hope he does not witness all the fussing and fighting that goes on here!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There were several.


One was a Dropsonde reading, which measured 120 MPH winds at the surface.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

97L has been put in deactivation mode...At least for now.
thats a poor call. we saw yesterday that 97L could fall apart completly then look good up to 40% and now looks pretty bad at 20% once it gets south of jamaica it will hit a warm spot and models show favorable shear
Quoting RitaEvac:
This storm might never make it to Florida, so be prepared for that, gonna be a lot of sad folks on here


To them I say... There's always next year!
557. Gorty
Looks like Rina expanded.
I wish that there was a way to merge all of the NHC cones of uncertinty for one storm in to one cone at the end of its life to see how right or wrong they were.
120 MPH Flight Level Winds
Flight Level Winds
105 knots
(~ 120.7 mph)
No new vortex message yet. I think the NHC will go with the 19:23Z vortex data message which showed 85 kt flight level winds and 972 mb pressure. I don't think they will increase the winds on the basis of that. And it's too late for them to incorporate a new vortex message into their 5 p.m. advisory.

Could be wrong, we'll know in a few minutes.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yes they are. Since the GFS has moved closer to a direct SWFL hit, then it'll be interesting to see how the official NHC track changes since they've been relying on the GFS model the most so far with Rina.
would this be this weekend or is it earlier?
Time: 20:26:00Z
Coordinates: 17.5667N 84.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 690.8 mb (~ 20.40 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,055 meters (~ 10,023 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 990.1 mb (~ 29.24 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 81° at 95 knots (From the E at ~ 109.2 mph)
Air Temp: 6.1°C* (~ 43.0°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 105 knots (~ 120.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 76 knots* (~ 87.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 62 mm/hr* (~ 2.44 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
We probably have a major hurricane on our hands guys...But if the NHC is already writing, and went with something lower...Its probably too late to change it.
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

My grandson who is 8 yrs old in 3rd grade, has to come to WU for school homework tonight...

only got a message from my daughter in law so not sure what he will be doing here...but just in case..

Be good!!!! LOL


Probably just going to look at some of the graphics and the hurricane, but just in case he comes by this blog hope he does not witness all the fussing and fighting that goes on here!


Thats a great reminder Gamma.
Thanks.
I think there is a very good chance that your grandson will find some good information.

And even at 8 yrs of age, will be able to sift through the info just fine.
Its actually a good lesson on how to deal with real life and decide for ones self what to pay attention to.

BUT!!!!
There will be parental guidance I assume/hopefully >O}
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I wish that there was a way to merge all of the NHC cones of uncertinty for one storm in to one cone at the end of its life to see how right or wrong they were.


They have that. You can look back at an animated sequence of the cones. Doing that for Hurricane Jeanne is cool to watch!
Quoting LargoFl:
would this be this weekend or is it earlier?


A landfall on SWFL?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
No new vortex message yet. I think the NHC will go with the 19:23Z vortex data message which showed 85 kt flight level winds and 972 mb pressure. I don't think they will increase the winds on the basis of that. And it's too late for them to incorporate a new vortex message into their 5 p.m. advisory.

Could be wrong, we'll know in a few minutes.

85 knot is 100 mph.
Post 566: thank you
looks like its going to be a wet night here in the caymans, storms firing in that outer band se of us and moisture from the central carib may join in the fun in 6-8 hrs
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


They have that. You can look back at an animated sequence of the cones. Doing that for Hurricane Jeanne is cool to watch!
Link?
The eye is apparently tilted slightly southeastward with height. Recon measured the lowest pressure northwest of the wind center.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Link?


Hurricane Jeanne Archive
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi everyone,

My grandson who is 8 yrs old in 3rd grade, has to come to WU for school homework tonight...

only got a message from my daughter in law so not sure what he will be doing here...but just in case..

Be good!!!! LOL


Probably just going to look at some of the graphics and the hurricane, but just in case he comes by this blog hope he does not witness all the fussing and fighting that goes on here!

Hope he comes by and sees how interesting weather can be. There's a lot of enthusiasm and curiosity on this blog. Great stuff for an 8 year old. Also I would think the graphics would appeal.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

85 knot is 100 mph.


98 mph but among friends we can round up. With the pressure not rising much I think they'll hold at 90 kts assuming that the recon didn't find the strongest winds.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


98 mph but among friends we can round up. With the pressure not rising much I think they'll hold at 90 kts assuming that the recon didn't find the strongest winds.

I believe they will go with 110-120 mph, 105 mph seems a little low to me.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Link?


I'll have to dig it up, I know I've seen them. tropicalanalyst13 or levi probably can share it right off the bat.
latest sat pic shows the reds starting surround the eye
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I believe they will go with 110-120 mph, 105 mph seems a little low to me.


I agree. They know it is intensifying, soaring it to at least 110 MPH would suitable.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I'll have to dig it up, I know I've seen them. tropicalanalyst13 or levi probably can share it right off the bat.


I already posted a link.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I'll have to dig it up, I know I've seen them. tropicalanalyst13 or levi probably can share it right off the bat.

What?
110 mph it is.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Link?


Here's a link to other hurricanes too.

Hurricane Graphics Archive
Quoting Levi32:
The eye is apparently tilted slightly southeastward with height. Recon measured the lowest pressure northwest of the wind center.
shes trying to pop out an eye on infrared. isnt 970mb a little high for a strong 2 weak 3?
22.5 86W 80 knots NHC has going thru the Florida straits
5pm NHC track shifted slightly north to 23.5N Days 4 and 5.
Winds now 95 kts
110. im ok with the call 8pm should have a major
Thanks Spathy and Tropical Traveler...

His Mama said he "assignment" was to get "high" and "low" temps for state of Virginia...
and this will start teaching them about how to get weather information on computer.

Heck, all he has to do is ask me! LOL

red is surrounding eye i look for rapid intensification tonight
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
shes trying to pop out an eye on infrared. isnt 970mb a little high for a strong 2 weak 3?


A little bit, but we're also used to some bigger storms lately. Sub-970mb can often be Cat 3 intensity. Rina is also small and very tight, with a stronger pressure gradient around her than some storms with her central pressure.
It raining aplenty in Cancun right now!
Quoting Levi32:


A little bit, but we're also used to some bigger storms lately. Sub-970mb can often be Cat 3 intensity. Rina is also small and very tight, with a stronger pressure gradient around her than some storms with her central pressure.

That buoy you were talking about in your Tidbit is down to 1011 mbar. last time I checked.
HURRICANE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
Another round of intensification might be getting ready to set up.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Another round of intensification might be getting ready to set up.


Agreed. She's getting ready.
Anybody that knows...I'm about to start a Wikipedia article for Rina..Anybody know where the storm originated from?
000
WTNT33 KNHC 252049
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
Quoting Levi32:


A little bit, but we're also used to some bigger storms lately. Sub-970mb can often be Cat 3 intensity. Rina is also small and very tight, with a stronger pressure gradient around her than some storms with her central pressure.
alright thanks and why does the nhc keep insisting she will move east into cuba or the straights. its pretty clear that the only passage for her is through sw florida as the wind aloft are from sw to ne. also some meteorologist noted if shes a cat 3 and misses a direct landfall on the yucatan and moves say 15 to 20 ne into florida she could still be a cat 1 as the SW shear wont have a HUGE affect on her as she moves NE although she will be weaking still. thanks :P
Quoting seflagamma:
Thanks Spathy and Tropical Traveler...

His Mama said he "assignment" was to get "high" and "low" temps for state of Virginia...
and this will start teaching them about how to get weather information on computer.

Heck, all he has to do is ask me! LOL




He can pick something like this.

State extreme highs and lows in the middle of the page on the right.
Quoting spathy:


So just a thought.

Timing of Irenes landfall and the haphazard destruction along the coast would be a result of such discrepancies/VARIANCES within a storm,would it not?

ie
You can drive through a 30 car pile up unscathed but the surrounding destruction is horrifying.

Timing and swirl path.


Yes, while the differences are not that much a hurricane always has it's strong areas and "weaker" areas within the eye wall and surrounding it.
I'm not saying "Wilma 2" but I AM having flashbacks to around this time in 2005. Rina on same general path as Wilma, 97L on same general path as alpha, and a strong early season Nor'easter (Fri-sat) that will try to pull them both up the coast. In this case though it seems like they will both miss the connection.

Be back around 1am...
TWC says 110 mph at 5pm.
TWC also predicts 50mph Tropical Storm when it makes it to Fl.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TWC says 110 mph at 5pm.


Post #600.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That buoy you were talking about in your Tidbit is down to 1011 mbar. last time I checked.


Yeah it's at the bottom of the diurnal cycle now. The overall trend is decreasing today though as Rina's eye gradually closes the distance between them.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TWC also predicts 50mph Tropical Storm when it makes it to Fl.

That's not their prediction, that's the NHC's.
They're inching northward:

They may have to shift a bit more as time goes on.

Track just shifted north, closer to FL.
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 95 KT BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 94 KT AND
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 106 KT. THE LATEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE PLANE WAS 970 MB...FALLING A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A REGION OF LOW WIND SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK AT 100 KT FROM 12 TO 48
HOURS...A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT
TIME...RINA WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE
SHIPS AND LGEM. HOWEVER...IF RINA MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THAN EXPECTED...IT COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST
IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE LEFT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 270/04. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS RINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THE CYCLONE PASSES BY
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DEVELOPS IN THE
GUIDANCE. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSELY LINKED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ON ONE EXTREME...THE ECMWF WEAKENS RINA AND
DISSIPATES IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AFTER 72 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS AND HWRF TAKE A STRONGER CYCLONE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT A SLOW MOTION IS SHOWN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS VERY LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.4N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.5N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.3N 86.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.4N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.8N 86.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 23.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not their prediction, that's the NHC's.


I believe its actually the GFS model they're using for their prediction. The NHC is not currently forecasting the system to hit Fl directly. (not yet).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody that knows...I'm about to start a Wikipedia article for Rina..Anybody know where the storm originated from?
You'll need to list reliable sources of any data you use in your article, so you shouldn't quote anything you read on this blog as fact, but I can give you a link to the GOES archive where you can view the past 3 weeks of imagery.
*bows to tropicalanalystwx13's prediction prowess!*

110 mph it is.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's at the bottom of the diurnal cycle now. The overall trend is decreasing today though as Rina's eye gradually closes the distance between them.
do you think it will be as weak as a 50mph storm when it gets to fla?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I believe its actually the GFS model they're using for their prediction.

No...its in the National Hurricane Center's...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK AT 100 KT FROM 12 TO 48
HOURS..


It wouldn't surprise me if there wasn't an an upward fluctuation to 110 kts or more somewhere during that time. In fact it would surprise me if there wasn't.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK AT 100 KT FROM 12 TO 48
HOURS..


It wouldn't surprise me if there wasn't an an upward fluctuation to 110 kts or more somewhere during that time. In fact it would surprise me if there wasn't.

I agree, and lol at your last comment.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No...its in the National Hurricane Center's...


That's interesting. They actually showed the Low going into South Fl.
The also said they using one of the "more reliable models."
That model run they just showed didn't look like the NHC model path.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Yes, while the differences are not that much a hurricane always has it's strong areas and "weaker" areas within the eye wall and surrounding it.


Thanks neighbor Alva.
You have been very kind to respond to my random thoughts.
The NHC changed the track just a little little bit to the north even though their favorite model has a landfall in South Florida. I mean, the experts has Low Confidence in them and their forecast ? Sorry but I don't get it.
Quoting weatherman12345:
do you think it will be as weak as a 50mph storm when it gets to fla?


It could be, especially if it takes its time between the Yucatan and Florida, giving the wind shear more time to rip at her.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That's interesting. They actually showed the Low going into South Fl.
The also said they using one of the "more reliable models."
That model run they just showed didn't look like the NHC model path.

They showed the GFS model, but for the projected path, it is the NHC's wind and track forecast.
now with 110mph Rina is starting to look a little bit of Mitch now that they are ts watches in the bay islands
Looks like its beginning another round of intensification.

Quoting WeatherfanPR:
The NHC changed the track just a little little bit to the north even though their favorite model has a landfall in South Florida. I mean, the experts has Low Confidence in them and their forecast ? Sorry but I don't get it.


They do have a very large end cone of DOOM/uncertainty.

36 hrs is a good estimate of probability.
After that its just a possible estimate.
Quoting foggymyst:



When is the possible time frame if this verifies?
Florida will likely begin to feel the effects from the cyclone in about 4 days (give or take 12-24 hours).

(Still praying it dissipates before reaching Florida and doesn't ruin my weekend, lol).
Oh No!! Not the Cone!!
looks like the cone covers South Florida all the way to Jamaica!
Quoting spathy:


They do have a very large end cone of DOOM/uncertainty.

36 hrs is a good estimate of probability.
After that its just a probable estimate.



very large cone = very low confidence
Who else noticed that the GFDL exchanged forecast with the GFS? Today's GFS was yesterday's GFDL and viceversa. Also, if GFS model run holds true, FL might get hit from the west and then from the east. And that's not taking 97L into the picture and the cold front approaching. Ughh, yea fake titties weather girl, it's going to rain ;)
ACE-wise, Rina has quickly climbed into the #6 spot for the season after just 48 hours in existence:

1) KATIA: 24.8375
2) IRENE: 20.3425
3) OPHELIA: 18.3550
4) PHILIPPE: 14.1000
5) MARIA: 8.6700
6) RINA: 3.7525
7) BRET: 2.9450
8) NATE: 2.8225
9) CINDY: 2.3125
10) ARLENE: 1.9875
11) EMILY: 1.9875
12) DON: 1.7375
13) LEE: 1.7050
14) GERT: 1.6025
15) HARVEY: 1.2350
16) JOSE: 0.5275
17) FRANKLIN: 0.4050

On a side note that is nothing more than coincidence, Philippe remains the sole male-named storm in the top six, while Gert is the only storm with a female name in the bottom six...
.
Quoting Levi32:


It could be, especially if it takes its time between the Yucatan and Florida, giving the wind shear more time to rip at her.
what let wilma actually stregthen as it swept across the south GOM in simmilar harsh conditions? they are going to be around the same intesity when it nears mexico.
That's not a cone into Florida, that's a giant circle meaning we don't have an effing clue
24-36 hrs. and it will go down...

Quoting WeatherfanPR:



very large cone = very low confidence


Gotta love a "man" of few words.

Give me another 100 yrs and I might get close to that goal.
Quoting RitaEvac:
That's not a cone into Florida, that's a giant circle meaning we don't have an effing clue



I like this comment !
The 12z GFS seems pretty realistic. Not a fan of the fact that it's on my doorstep on Saturday though.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ACE-wise, Rina has quickly climbed into the #6 spot for the season after just 48 hours in existence:

1) KATIA: 24.8375
2) IRENE: 20.3425
3) OPHELIA: 18.3550
4) PHILIPPE: 14.1000
5) MARIA: 8.6700
6) RINA: 3.7525
7) BRET: 2.9450
8) NATE: 2.8225
9) CINDY: 2.3125
10) ARLENE: 1.9875
11) EMILY: 1.9875
12) DON: 1.7375
13) LEE: 1.7050
14) GERT: 1.6025
15) HARVEY: 1.2350
16) JOSE: 0.5275
17) FRANKLIN: 0.4050

On a side note that is nothing more than coincidence, Philippe remains the sole male-named storm in the top six, while Gert is the only storm with a female name in the bottom six...


Major for the next two days will take Rina up to 5th. 4th after that.
644. wpb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like its beginning another round of intensification.

noaa p3 wll be in the hurricane soon
Wonder how many years Rina's ACE will take us past for the season total rank.
Rina the Ripper on a tear for Halloween, nobody has a clue and gonna cause widespread panic
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 12z GFS seems pretty realistic. Not a fan of the fact that it's on my doorstep on Saturday though.


What strength does the GFS put it when it is on Florida?
Quoting Hurricanes12:


What strength does the GFS put it when it is on Florida?
cat 1
Quoting weatherman12345:
what let wilma actually stregthen as it swept across the south GOM in simmilar harsh conditions? they are going to be around the same intesity when it nears mexico.


Wilma was massive and had undergone and eyewall replacement cycle, something that allows hurricanes to expand their pressure field and release heat over a larger area. Rina is not going to be as large and is more susceptible to wind shear. However, she is a lot stronger in structure than Paula from last year and will not be falling apart as fast. That is why she could easily still be a Cat 1 in Florida, but if she takes her time she could just as easily only be a moderate tropical storm.

Wilma upper-level winds on October 24th, 2005:

650. wpb
18z gfs running soon.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 12z GFS seems pretty realistic. Not a fan of the fact that it's on my doorstep on Saturday though.

Yeah but, If I read that GFS right, it's just a 1001mb low pressure when it gets to SW Florida coast or a TS. If I had my druthers...
Quoting spathy:


Thanks neighbor Alva.
You have been very kind to respond to my random thoughts.


Your welcome. It's what I do. Lol
Quoting Levi32:


Wilma was massive and had undergone and eyewall replacement cycle, something that allows hurricanes to expand their pressure field and release heat over a larger area. Rina is not going to be as large and is more susceptible to wind shear. However, she is a lot stronger in structure than Paula from last year and will not be falling apart as fast. That is why she could easily still be a Cat 1 in Florida, but if she takes her time she could just as easily only be a moderate tropical storm.


Levi, do you believe that the most probable track would be into S. FL? You mentioned that some models aren't correctly measuring her pressure and how deep in the atmosphere she is. Do you think that is why some models are predicting that she will curve once she reaches the tip of western Cuba?
Quoting Hurricanes12:


What strength does the GFS put it when it is on Florida?
Looks to be a pretty decent tropical storm. Probably something similar to 2008's Fay, except with less precipitation.

84 hours out on the 12z GFS:

Gamma
YUP!
All he has to do is ask you.
But that would take all the fun out of it.

You could always ask someone how to plant seeds.
But they wont get it correct until he does it for himself.
MANY TIMES.
But as a Gamma.
Isnt it emotionally rewarding/ fantastic to watch the process he goes through?
See his gears turning and making you rethink things as well.
Gotta love it.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to be a pretty decent tropical storm. Probably something similar to 2008's Fay, except with less precipitation.

84 hours out on the 12z GFS:



If she was actually reaching S.FL in 84 hours, she could still maintain some sort of moderate strength because that would be moving quite quickly, right?
Quoting Levi32:


Wilma was massive and had undergone and eyewall replacement cycle, something that allows hurricanes to expand their pressure field and release heat over a larger area. Rina is not going to be as large and is more susceptible to wind shear. However, she is a lot stronger in structure than Paula from last year and will not be falling apart as fast. That is why she could easily still be a Cat 1 in Florida, but if she takes her time she could just as easily only be a moderate tropical storm.

Wilma upper-level winds on October 24th, 2005:

Will Rina go through an eye wall replacement and possibly grow in size?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



very large cone = very low confidence


It seems that when the GFS is predicting a turn out to sea or a " u-turn of death in the caribbean" then the NHC is all over using the GFS, but as soon as they predict a direct landfall on US soil, they take some other models into consideration and hold off for a little while until they're sure it's coming (when it's <48 hours away). Allow it may subdue a "panic" for a little while they should give people more time to prepare and point the cone towards FL or anywhere else if that's where the models say it's going.
Recon is on it's way and about 430 miles from Rina's center.
Quoting alvarig1263:


Hurricane Jeanne Archive
That really is cool - I had forgotten how long that thing sat out there and the loop - talk about hard to predict.
If Rina gets pulled northeastward more quickly then there will be less time for shear to tear it apart. We could have cat 1 hurricane hitting SW Florida or going through the Keys.

What if Rina does do a big loop and ends back up in the Western Carribean? This would happen if it has more land interaction with the Yucatan Pennisula. Will the windshear be more favorable in the GOM after 5 days?
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Levi, do you believe that the most probable track would be into S. FL? You mentioned that some models aren't correctly measuring her pressure and how deep in the atmosphere she is. Do you think that is why some models are predicting that she will curve once she reaches the tip of western Cuba?


Yes, since yesterday in my blog I have mentioned that the more northward track close to south Florida makes more sense to me.
This is Hurricane Paula from October last year, compared to Rina. While Paula took a similar track to Rina and then dissipated over Cuba, there are key differences to notice here. Paula could be described here as rather flimsy, and the upper-level flow was southeasterly straight across the system with poor outflow everywhere except north of the storm. Paula had an even smaller and weaker structure than Rina's, which helped her weaken quickly in the face of the jetstream to the north. Rina, however, has absolutely amazing outflow right now, including a developing equatorward channel that Paula never had. Her core is clearly more mature than Paula's and her warm air bubble aloft is rounder. This should allow Rina to track farther north than Paula did and stay stronger for longer.

NEW BLOG!!
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Levi, do you believe that the most probable track would be into S. FL? You mentioned that some models aren't correctly measuring her pressure and how deep in the atmosphere she is. Do you think that is why some models are predicting that she will curve once she reaches the tip of western Cuba?


Two days will tell.
Listen to your local advisories In the Mean time.
When Charley was approaching????
My local guy called it just in time for anyone listening.


Then the power went off and he was my saving voice on the radio.
Can someone be nice enough to post a pic of the latest models? Thanks!
Quoting weatherman12345:
what let wilma actually stregthen as it swept across the south GOM in simmilar harsh conditions? they are going to be around the same intesity when it nears mexico.


Several things. First, Wilma was a very large hurricane compared to Rina, with hurricane force winds extending up to 175 miles from the center. Second, Wilma had an extremely low central pressure, 887 millibars, compared to Rina, which is at 970 millibars at about the same location as Wilma, when she was undergoing her most intense strengthening phase. Rina appears to be deepening slowly, if at all. Third, a powerful eastward-moving mid-level trough across the central United States turned the hurricane northeastward and caused it to gradually accelerate after she got back into the Gulf. With forward speeds of about 50 knots, the wind shear that was over her had very little effect, especially since she was large enough to insulate herself from the effects of almost any other weather. Lastly, Wilma formed near the end of one of the most active hurricane seasons in Atlantic history, so the whole Caribbean and central Atlantic Ocean atmosphere was already destabilized and ready for a large storm like Wilma to grow. Wilma was a a once in a lifetime kind of storm, and Rina, even though she formed in the same area and at the same time, is really not comparable in almost any way.
Quoting Watching4Belize:
Can someone be nice enough to post a pic of the latest models? Thanks!


Quoting Watching4Belize:
Can someone be nice enough to post a pic of the latest models? Thanks!



Good local mets can save lives.

Jim Farrell saved many lives when it came to Hurricane Charley.

This is just one video but he kept telling us the forecast was wrong/ long enough for us to take action.


Quoting Levi32:
They're inching northward:

They may have to shift a bit more as time goes on.



Oh heck!
Now I am in the cone of DOOM.
Luckily We have had recent practice with the Cane protection.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anybody that knows...I'm about to start a Wikipedia article for Rina..Anybody know where the storm originated from?


Wasn't this from the low pressure trough in EPAC that moved over to our side. I remember looking around in the archives for storms that crossed the isthmus because someone had asked a question about it.
i am going to have a blog up soon about Rina how do you upload pictures?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



what is the link to that picture?
Quoting timswunderblog:
what is the link to that picture?



Link
Yet to be contradictory or reemphasizing a good met.

Look at this met from Tampa saying that Charley is moving North(FF to time 1.4 min) and its clearly visible in the loop behind him that Charley had turned way earlier than his statement.

Dont trust a met that is reading a script.
Trust a Met that is explaining whats going on in the graphic!


Hey Rick in WPB...I don't know who you are but I lived in WBB for 38 years..I worked as a met Tech at PBI for 14 years, I did a meteorologist radio Show in Riviera beach for 2 years. I worked at NHC in the Satellite Division for two years with Max Mayfield. I was just a Tech but I know a thing about tropical systems. I respect your opinion but do not respect your atitude in that previous comment ...You enjoy the hobby of blogging and keep the game clean

Quoting RickWPB:

Yeah but, If I read that GFS right, it's just a 1001mb low pressure when it gets to SW Florida coast or a TS. If I had my druthers...